WEBVTT - 44 | Top 5 DH's, Pythagorean Win Expectancy, Something I Heard 0:00:00.960 --> 0:00:02.760 You like to just baseball show and want to make 0:00:02.800 --> 0:00:04.400 your own, let me tell you about Anchor. 0:00:04.680 --> 0:00:05.200 It's free. 0:00:05.720 --> 0:00:07.720 There's a creation tool that allows you to record and 0:00:07.920 --> 0:00:10.920 edit your podcast right from your phone or computer. Now 0:00:10.920 --> 0:00:13.880 you can even add any song from Spotify directly to 0:00:13.920 --> 0:00:17.600 your episodes. The possibilities are endless for what you can create, 0:00:17.640 --> 0:00:20.680 whether it's music analysis, your own radio show, or something 0:00:20.720 --> 0:00:24.640 the world's never seen before. Anchor will distribute your podcast 0:00:24.680 --> 0:00:27.840 for you so it can be heard on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, 0:00:27.840 --> 0:00:30.920 and much more. You can make money from your podcast 0:00:31.000 --> 0:00:34.479 with no minimum listenership. It's everything you need to make 0:00:34.520 --> 0:00:37.840 a podcast in one place. So download the free Anchor 0:00:37.880 --> 0:00:59.440 app or go to anchor dot fm to get started. 0:01:02.760 --> 0:01:22.080 We will see you to welcome out Big Tuesday, Big Tuesday, 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:25.880 twentieth Massive Tuesday. We're in the midst of an oat 0:01:25.920 --> 0:01:30.200 milk versus almond milk debate, and I I'm team almond man. 0:01:31.480 --> 0:01:35.040 So riddle me this. Actually it's not a riddle. I 0:01:35.080 --> 0:01:38.320 don't know why I start with. Riddle me this almond 0:01:38.319 --> 0:01:46.640 milk tastes a little bit worse, but oat milk I 0:01:46.680 --> 0:01:47.560 don't trust. 0:01:48.440 --> 0:01:49.560 Why do I trust? 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:52.960 Because well, for I don't really like, I don't trust 0:01:53.040 --> 0:01:58.000 any of the milks they're made out of nuts or oats, 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:04.560 so it's just water and then the nuts and then what. 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:06.880 Wait, hold on, hold on, let me intro the pod. 0:02:07.160 --> 0:02:09.880 This is the Just Baseball Show. I'm Jack mcnill and 0:02:09.919 --> 0:02:14.920 he's Peter Ave. There. The intro of the pod is done. 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:17.880 Now can we keep talking about nuts? Yeah? Yeah, and oats, 0:02:17.960 --> 0:02:21.040 nuts and oats, nuts, oats, and I'm the nut guy, 0:02:21.240 --> 0:02:22.000 not the oats. 0:02:22.040 --> 0:02:25.600 Make I feel like I'm I'm I'm thinking about it 0:02:25.639 --> 0:02:27.520 all in one swoop because I've never really given it 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:29.679 a lot of salt. But I put oat milk or 0:02:29.680 --> 0:02:33.120 almond milk whatever I got. But I've never actually drank 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:34.320 them by themselves. 0:02:34.360 --> 0:02:37.840 Have you ever? I have drank? No way you will 0:02:37.960 --> 0:02:38.639 buy itself? 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:40.800 What just in a glass of almond Like just a 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:42.600 glass of almond milk you're drinking and sip out. 0:02:42.440 --> 0:02:44.440 Of the cart And because I was curious, I was like, Okay, 0:02:44.440 --> 0:02:45.240 I'm making true. 0:02:45.280 --> 0:02:47.320 That's probably the only because like, when's the last time 0:02:47.360 --> 0:02:49.360 I had a cup of almond milk or oat milk? 0:02:49.480 --> 0:02:51.240 Never? Never? Never? 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:56.800 Also, can we tell everyone listening, like stop drinking regular milk? 0:02:57.000 --> 0:03:01.320 Who invented cows giving us milk? Why are we drinking 0:03:01.360 --> 0:03:02.160 it from calves? 0:03:03.160 --> 0:03:07.520 God? I guess was it a religious thing? The first farmer? 0:03:07.600 --> 0:03:10.280 I don't know. You know what I'm drinking right now? 0:03:10.720 --> 0:03:18.280 What cucumber, celery, spinach, lemon kale, parsley juice tastes like 0:03:18.360 --> 0:03:19.840 compost delicious. 0:03:20.000 --> 0:03:23.040 That sounds actually phenomenal. I mean, I'm not a fan, 0:03:23.240 --> 0:03:25.960 it's not bad. I'm not a fan of some of 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:29.079 those veggie concoctions, but like that actually sounds like a 0:03:29.160 --> 0:03:29.760 nice medley. 0:03:30.240 --> 0:03:32.720 And we talk about vitamins all the time, like sea moss, 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:35.680 corephill tablets, all these things, Like it makes your body 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:39.440 feel better. Vegetables, people take your vitamins. I'm telling you, 0:03:39.480 --> 0:03:41.400 it makes your brain. And I'm not joking around, like 0:03:41.400 --> 0:03:44.200 we're joking around about nuts and almonds and whatever. But 0:03:45.120 --> 0:03:48.120 like it, the vegetables genuinely work. And I know everyone 0:03:48.160 --> 0:03:50.520 knows that, but try it out, Like, put a juice 0:03:50.560 --> 0:03:53.200 in your body. Put some of these vitamins in your body. 0:03:53.240 --> 0:03:54.320 It makes you feel better. 0:03:54.560 --> 0:03:58.080 Give it a whirl. I do want to pitch a 0:03:58.120 --> 0:04:01.760 certain almond milk to you. It's Trade Joe's Vanilla Almond 0:04:01.760 --> 0:04:05.840 milk and it's conduced fat. Yea, If Trader Joe's is 0:04:05.880 --> 0:04:11.520 looking to sponsor a pod, this is the pod, isn't 0:04:11.520 --> 0:04:11.960 it traded? 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:15.320 And the thing is there's a Trailer Joe's on the 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:17.080 Lower east Side that we go to all the time, 0:04:17.160 --> 0:04:19.720 Low east side of Manhattan. Yeah, and Trailer Joe's. I mean, 0:04:20.160 --> 0:04:23.000 first of all, most underrated thing from Trailer Joe's the 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:24.560 bagged frozen passas. 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:26.520 Oh, really good. 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:30.400 Tell me you don't the yulki yunkcci. 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:31.240 Yeah. 0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:35.200 I studied abroad in Italy, so I'm basically fluent in 0:04:35.240 --> 0:04:37.080 Italian and it's nyulki. 0:04:37.560 --> 0:04:40.400 Okay, Yeah, I agree. That's how I've said it my 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:42.440 entire life. And I agree that it's really good, the 0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:47.919 cauliflower and yucky, really good, really really good. Throw that 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:50.719 puppy in an air fryer and that's that really right. 0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:55.400 Well we talk about a yeah, airfrer, never done califier 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:58.480 and yolk and air fire and all right, let's get 0:04:58.520 --> 0:05:00.480 let's talk baseball now, Okay, you want to talk baseball? 0:05:00.800 --> 0:05:03.919 Lance Lynn extended, how about that deal for the White Sox. 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:07.479 That was great, fantastic, good deal. Glad that he's extended. 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:10.400 I mean he's gonna ear a blow two. And it's 0:05:10.440 --> 0:05:12.919 good that he's got some money. Oh, I mean he 0:05:13.000 --> 0:05:14.800 had money, but like good that he's got some more 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:17.480 money now too, not enough money. Now he's got more money, right, 0:05:17.520 --> 0:05:18.599 He's got a lot more money. 0:05:19.480 --> 0:05:21.520 I do want to shout out this quote before we 0:05:21.600 --> 0:05:25.359 move on, lance Lynn. I'm paraphrasing here, but he pretty 0:05:25.440 --> 0:05:29.320 much said after he signed his extension, why go into 0:05:29.320 --> 0:05:31.240 free agency when you know where you want to be? 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:35.240 And he is now people's favorite White Sox. I think 0:05:35.279 --> 0:05:38.160 the White Sox guys like playing for the White Sox. 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:40.479 I mean, you see Carlos Rodawn when they were talking 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:42.839 to him earlier in the season, that great interview. 0:05:42.880 --> 0:05:45.119 He doesn't want to leave either. None of these guys 0:05:45.160 --> 0:05:48.400 want to leave Chicago. Isn't it awesome? There's an identity 0:05:48.480 --> 0:05:52.240 and then Carlin's I mean, they can't hold a candle 0:05:52.279 --> 0:05:55.160 to Starling Martze and his agent for for anything. 0:05:55.440 --> 0:05:58.640 I mean, they're low balling him. The average Anneal value 0:05:58.680 --> 0:06:00.560 would be less than he's making right now. And I 0:06:00.560 --> 0:06:02.400 get that you're extending him and maybe as he gets 0:06:02.400 --> 0:06:04.640 older it makes sense for I think he's what thirty 0:06:04.640 --> 0:06:08.920 three old. It's understandable, but you're you're short selling him. 0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:10.880 And especially when the Marlins came out and said that 0:06:10.920 --> 0:06:13.400 they were going to buy all these different pieces, said 0:06:13.400 --> 0:06:15.160 they were going to spend the money, and then they 0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:17.400 go out and low ball probably their best hitter in 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:21.080 the lineup right now. Also, Buckston, seven years seventy million, 0:06:21.600 --> 0:06:23.000 that's what the Twins are offering him. 0:06:23.040 --> 0:06:25.000 He probably won't take it. 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:27.880 That's such a tough deal because if you look at 0:06:27.920 --> 0:06:30.320 the talent that Buckston has, you're looking at two hundred 0:06:30.320 --> 0:06:32.520 and fifty million, right If you look at the if 0:06:32.560 --> 0:06:34.760 you look at how many games he's been injured and 0:06:34.760 --> 0:06:37.680 how many times he's actually on the field, seven years 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:39.359 seventy million kind of sounds accurate. 0:06:40.360 --> 0:06:41.559 It might actually sound high. 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:44.400 It might actually sound high, especially seven years for a 0:06:44.440 --> 0:06:47.640 guy who's really struggled to stay on the field. I 0:06:47.920 --> 0:06:55.599 fall into the if you're Buckston, I understand not taking 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:58.159 the deal. But if you're the Twins, I understand not 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:02.080 giving him more. That's why I think Buxton is probably 0:07:02.080 --> 0:07:03.560 going to get traded this deadline. 0:07:03.839 --> 0:07:06.480 We've got a great show today. We've got top five DHS. 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:08.880 We also have Kolby Olsen coming back on he just 0:07:08.920 --> 0:07:11.280 wrote a great article, is pretty much your primer for 0:07:11.320 --> 0:07:14.200 the second half, like here's where your team will likely 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:16.640 finish up. And he's our algorithm guy, so he made 0:07:16.680 --> 0:07:19.880 the algorithm. But before we move on from this topic, 0:07:19.880 --> 0:07:24.080 I want to I want to pose you this open market. 0:07:24.440 --> 0:07:27.320 Who gets the bigger deal? Let's yeah, I'll make this 0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:30.640 a two part question. Okay, who gets the longer deal? 0:07:30.840 --> 0:07:36.240 Who gets the more lucrative deal? Longer Buxton or Korea? 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:45.040 Oh all right? Oh hard? I think longer. I think 0:07:45.480 --> 0:07:49.640 the same thing. They're probably. I think they both get seven. 0:07:50.400 --> 0:07:52.960 You think they both get seven because Korea I think 0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:54.920 seven years one to twenties kind of fair. 0:07:55.960 --> 0:07:59.040 He's gonna want more. He's gonna want like one seventy five. 0:07:59.360 --> 0:08:03.440 Okay, but how seven years? Okay, so Korea and Buxton 0:08:03.640 --> 0:08:06.400 seven years one p fifties put on your plate. Buxton 0:08:06.440 --> 0:08:09.120 says hell yes and a heartbeat? Does Karrea say hell 0:08:09.200 --> 0:08:13.800 yes and a heartbeat? I think Buxton says yes. Correa 0:08:13.880 --> 0:08:19.040 says no. Even though who would I rather give it to? 0:08:19.160 --> 0:08:22.240 That's impossible because Buckston is more talented than Korea. 0:08:23.000 --> 0:08:24.240 He just is. 0:08:25.200 --> 0:08:27.240 Oh, Karea is really good too. But Chris also had 0:08:27.240 --> 0:08:31.000 his problem staying on the field. I know, I maybe 0:08:31.280 --> 0:08:33.400 it's a personal thing. I am in love with what 0:08:33.440 --> 0:08:36.439 Buckston can do. If he stays on the field, He's 0:08:36.440 --> 0:08:39.600 a better player than Krea. I would give it to 0:08:39.760 --> 0:08:43.199 Buxton first. I'd like to go in and check the medicals. 0:08:43.400 --> 0:08:44.880 I'd like to go in and check how these guys 0:08:44.920 --> 0:08:47.439 are actually training, because Cray has been fully healthy this year, 0:08:47.480 --> 0:08:49.120 but Buckston is still struggling to stay on the field. 0:08:49.720 --> 0:08:52.840 I would give you know, my baseball mind is telling me, 0:08:52.920 --> 0:08:56.040 don't be stupid, give it to Korea, but my heart 0:08:56.200 --> 0:08:59.040 is saying, like, I would rather have Buxton on my team. 0:08:59.080 --> 0:09:02.480 What do you think if Buxton works out for two years, 0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:04.920 three years. I'm not talking physically works out. I'm talking like, 0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:07.400 if he stays on the field he's healthy. Yeah, Like 0:09:08.160 --> 0:09:11.320 he's one of the best center fielders in baseball. Like 0:09:11.360 --> 0:09:14.000 he's one of the most talented players that there is. Right, So, 0:09:14.720 --> 0:09:18.679 a healthy Buxton, if the injury bug subsides for him 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:21.360 and he's not hurt the next seven years, I mean, 0:09:21.360 --> 0:09:23.640 Byron Buxton' is a seven year, two hundred and fifty 0:09:23.640 --> 0:09:27.559 million dollar guy. That's what I'm saying. Yeah, It's really 0:09:27.600 --> 0:09:30.000 hard because like I bank on Korea to stay on 0:09:30.000 --> 0:09:31.760 the field more than I bank on Buxton. But like 0:09:31.800 --> 0:09:35.400 I have no idea with Byron Buxton. It's an impossible 0:09:35.480 --> 0:09:38.319 question that I post. You don't, I don't really impossible. 0:09:38.480 --> 0:09:42.520 It's a great question though, before we get to Colby's, 0:09:43.160 --> 0:09:45.280 before we get to a conversation with Colby about the 0:09:45.320 --> 0:09:48.640 win and loss probabilities for the remainder of the year, 0:09:48.720 --> 0:09:50.120 I do have something I heard, So we got a 0:09:50.120 --> 0:09:53.800 straight away from Baseball real quick. Ugly Delicious is one 0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:58.040 of my favorite shows on Netflix. Dave Chang. He pretty 0:09:58.080 --> 0:10:03.440 much dives into a certain food so like pizza, barbecue, steak, 0:10:04.240 --> 0:10:08.320 and he will spend an hour long show on Netflix. 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:09.760 Did I just mention that, I think I did. You 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:13.440 did mention that? Yes, Yeah, he will dive in and 0:10:13.480 --> 0:10:17.560 he'll talk about, you know, the connotations behind the food, 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:22.839 how it has been created. So like in the pizza episode, 0:10:23.240 --> 0:10:25.440 you know, he went to New York, he went to Detroit, 0:10:25.440 --> 0:10:27.800 he went to Naples, Italy for wood fired pizza, all 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:34.880 that steak. He went to you know, Bondai Beach in Sydney, Australia, 0:10:34.920 --> 0:10:37.000 and then he goes to a steakhouse in New York, 0:10:37.040 --> 0:10:39.560 and then he talks about dry aging, and he talks about, 0:10:40.360 --> 0:10:45.080 you know, the masculine connotations behind steak and how you 0:10:45.080 --> 0:10:48.360 know it kind of isolates women who want steak. It's 0:10:48.640 --> 0:10:51.400 it's a fascinating show. I highly recommend you watching. I 0:10:51.480 --> 0:10:55.400 just rewatched the steak episode. And once the Tigers get good, 0:10:55.800 --> 0:11:00.400 once Riley Green, Spencer, Torress and Dingler. Yeah, once the 0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:04.719 Tigers get good, how did you get Yeah, so hold on. 0:11:04.720 --> 0:11:10.040 Once the Tigers get good. There's a steakhouse slash bathhouse 0:11:10.200 --> 0:11:12.960 in Detroit called the Schwitz that we gotta go to. 0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:17.880 And the idea is in the basement, you've got like 0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:21.200 this one hundred year old bathhouse. It's men only two 0:11:21.240 --> 0:11:23.160 days a week, women only two days a week, and 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:26.520 then co ed two days a week, and you just 0:11:26.760 --> 0:11:30.280 get butt naked, you you know, do the bathhouse things. 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:31.920 So like you're in a bunch of heat, you're in 0:11:31.960 --> 0:11:35.079 the spots type environment, and you hop into the cold tub. 0:11:35.120 --> 0:11:37.440 You get these natural remedies on you. Then you go 0:11:37.559 --> 0:11:39.600 upstairs and you have a steak with the guys just 0:11:39.640 --> 0:11:43.079 in a robe. Dude. Actually, it's one of the best 0:11:43.120 --> 0:11:45.199 steaks in Detroit. We gotta do it. And it's one 0:11:45.200 --> 0:11:48.400 of the best steaks in Detroit. Yes, what's it called 0:11:48.400 --> 0:11:55.439 the Schitz? The Schwitz sch v I t z the Schwitz. Dude, 0:11:55.760 --> 0:11:56.400 we gotta go. 0:11:57.640 --> 0:12:00.240 We'll record some content there that would be whole. I 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:02.960 mean twenty twenty seven when the Tigers are good. 0:12:03.200 --> 0:12:06.040 Yeah, I a lot of time to get super fits 0:12:06.040 --> 0:12:07.640 so we can record shirtless content. 0:12:08.120 --> 0:12:10.080 Also, did you see the uh did you see the 0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:13.080 Stroman fight ish with the Pirates? 0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:17.240 No, what are you talking about? I saw Melrojas got 0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:19.680 u suspended for a couple of games. 0:12:19.960 --> 0:12:24.360 It was the It was the first baseman Joeganowski or 0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:29.600 Jagganowski or John Lecgowski, John Negowski, Joggandowski, all right, I 0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:35.199 combined him for baseball guys, John Mike Wazowski, John Negowski. 0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:40.120 He was after Marcus Stroman got him to line out. 0:12:40.800 --> 0:12:44.040 John Degowski was like, are you talking shit? And Marcus 0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:46.559 Stroman was just like, I'm not even talking to you. 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:49.920 You're John Nagowski and I'm Marcus Stroman. And John Nagowski 0:12:50.000 --> 0:12:51.920 took offense to that, obviously, and there was a little 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:54.200 scuffle and then they're just jawing in the dug out. 0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:57.120 The baseball fights. Some of them are sick, some of 0:12:57.160 --> 0:12:59.920 them are so lame. This goes into the lame category. 0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:02.760 But I'm also using this as an opportunity to talk 0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:07.960 about the Pirates a little bit. I like their lineup 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:14.760 a little You don't know, Yeah, their first three I do, Okay, Brian, 0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:16.240 Brian Hayes. 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:20.200 And Brian Reynolds. That that's a good three, Yes it is. 0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:26.559 But the other six suck. Suck not the can you 0:13:26.840 --> 0:13:29.080 leave me alone? I'm trying to help the Pirates. Yeah, 0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:32.319 sure like they They are not. 0:13:34.200 --> 0:13:34.600 Horrid. 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:38.760 They have there are some good parts to the Pirates. 0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:41.400 You're sitting there just like so bored. Can we get 0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:45.000 on the DHS? And I get it. They just don't 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:48.840 Mitch that Chad cool, Mitch Keller. They don't have pitching, 0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:52.080 but they have some bullpen guys, and they have at 0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:55.160 least a good young core getting Henry Davis, He's gonna 0:13:55.160 --> 0:13:57.600 slave to catch her with. Jacob Stallings is pretty good 0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:02.800 they have at the pieces. This is not a dumpster fire, 0:14:03.280 --> 0:14:04.840 as we may have called him in the past. 0:14:05.040 --> 0:14:07.880 Yeah, it's not a total blow up. I agree, it's not. 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:08.520 It's not. 0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:11.160 And Brian Reynolds. I don't think he's gonna get traded. 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:13.800 Pittsburgh says they want to build around him. He has 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:15.040 over three years of control. 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:15.600 I like it. 0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:17.679 He is a good player. Brian Hay is going to 0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:19.960 be an All Star. You get Henry Davis up. 0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:20.480 He's good. 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:24.200 Like they have guys, and they killed the draft arm 0:14:24.320 --> 0:14:26.160 late in our prospect guy said they had the best 0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:29.280 draft out of every single team. Having the first pick helps, 0:14:29.480 --> 0:14:31.160 but there's a lot of more picks to do, and 0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:33.840 they had great second rounders, third, fourth, They killed it. 0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:38.480 The Pirates are The Pirates are an MLB team. 0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:41.480 Is is this Ben Cherrington's first year or second year 0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:45.920 in Pittsburgh? You think it's number two. Charrington was not 0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:49.640 horrible with the Red Sox. No, not at all. This 0:14:49.800 --> 0:14:52.720 is not a disaster. Yeah, guy knows. 0:14:52.760 --> 0:14:56.000 I don't see really any disasters right now in baseball. 0:14:56.040 --> 0:14:58.000 Do you see any disasters? 0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:03.160 Uh? Hard not to call Arizona a disaster. The Rockies 0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:03.840 are a disaster. 0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:12.240 Yeah, yeah, those really are the only two disasters. Because 0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:15.360 the Tigers at least have like a good young core. 0:15:16.760 --> 0:15:21.080 The Pirates have a good young core sort of. Baltimore's 0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:24.040 got Baltimore's. Baltimore's got a lot of good prospects. The 0:15:24.120 --> 0:15:26.680 Mariners have a lot of good prospects. I mean, the 0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:31.440 Rangers are approaching disaster, ah, but they've got some guys. 0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:33.440 Yeah. 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:32.320 Yeah. 0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:38.720 The Rockies suck and horrible. I bet on the dime 0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:42.600 Backs today against the Pirates. Why I talk about a 0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:44.000 series I will not watch? I know. 0:15:44.160 --> 0:15:45.920 I even said the TikTok to. I was like, I'm 0:15:45.920 --> 0:15:49.360 going with Divebacks Pirates. I doubt you watch it, but 0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:51.400 I think the Diamacks are gonna win if you want to, 0:15:51.440 --> 0:15:53.040 just if you want to place a bet and not 0:15:53.080 --> 0:15:57.800 watch the game. Caleb Smith versus Chase g Young Dejeong. 0:15:58.120 --> 0:15:59.800 I'm not good with names, as you can probably tell. 0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:01.800 I know the guy's not good with names, you know, 0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:04.240 John Gookowski from the Pirates. 0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:07.360 The funniest part is I sent you MLB's pronunciation guide 0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:10.160 before the season, so it's possible. Feel free to look 0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:12.920 at that PDF whenever you want. Now, I think it's 0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:15.560 more fun if I just got a completely wrong. Yeah, 0:16:15.720 --> 0:16:18.640 I don't know. It doesredibility, I get it. I doubt 0:16:18.640 --> 0:16:21.680 all right. Now, we talked to Colby Olsen about teams 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:24.760 wins and losses. This was a very fun article on 0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:26.960 just baseball dot com and we bring him in now. 0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:32.360 So we're talking about this article on this site called 0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:35.120 just Baseball dot com. You should go visit this site. 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:37.880 You should read this article. And the article is called 0:16:38.400 --> 0:16:42.360 MLB's Second Half team Projections, Who should buy or sell? 0:16:42.560 --> 0:16:44.720 Question Mark. It is by the guy who's on the 0:16:44.800 --> 0:16:49.320 zoom right now, Colby Olsen. And what you did is 0:16:50.400 --> 0:16:53.400 you took a lot of data and you compiled it 0:16:53.560 --> 0:16:55.240 and you told us who was going to be good 0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:57.800 or bad in the second half and where teams are 0:16:57.920 --> 0:17:00.120 ending up. And the Giants are well over one hundred 0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:04.280 wins and the Diamondbacks suck. I think everybody knew that, 0:17:04.760 --> 0:17:07.560 but there are a lot of nuances to this. And 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:12.800 before we get into anything, just explain how you calculated 0:17:12.840 --> 0:17:16.239 and how you validated where you think teams are going 0:17:16.280 --> 0:17:19.080 to end up. Wait, Colby, before you answer that, I 0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:22.159 loved read this article first head because the first like 0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:26.560 big headlight is Pethagorean win expectancy and I hold on, 0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:31.760 hold on, hold, I was like, what the hell is that? Hold? No, no, no, dude, dude, 0:17:31.880 --> 0:17:36.439 the best way possible shut up for a second. Stay 0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:43.880 that word again that starts with the Petagorean Pythagorean god pathagoon. 0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:47.520 You feel like you're back in junior year, pre couch 0:17:47.640 --> 0:17:50.280 class in high school. Man, it's it's a square plus 0:17:50.280 --> 0:17:54.359 B squad, right, don't exactly. 0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:58.520 Don't let the big words scare you. Sometimes they're your friend. 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:02.560 No words can if you can't pronounce them, then they 0:18:02.600 --> 0:18:03.439 can be your enemy. 0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:09.480 So it sounds complicated, but it's really not, so let 0:18:09.480 --> 0:18:11.800 me run you through it. So basically, the idea behind 0:18:11.840 --> 0:18:16.800 Pythagora and win expectancy is that it models run differential, right, 0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:21.760 So you take runs scored, you divide that by runs 0:18:21.840 --> 0:18:26.000 scored plus runs given up, and that gives you basically 0:18:26.040 --> 0:18:28.920 a percentage that models out to be a win percentage. 0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:31.919 So then what I did is I actually tweaked the 0:18:31.960 --> 0:18:34.359 formula a little bit because I don't think runs scored 0:18:34.480 --> 0:18:35.879 is a very good stat to use. 0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:36.879 It's not very predictive. 0:18:37.440 --> 0:18:40.560 I decided to use weighted runs created, which you know 0:18:40.640 --> 0:18:44.080 obviously goes into WRC plus, which we commonly use and 0:18:44.119 --> 0:18:48.199 we love as a stat. I use runs against, not 0:18:48.240 --> 0:18:50.399 earned runs runs against, so you can include errors in 0:18:50.400 --> 0:18:53.240 that formula. And then After doing that, once you get 0:18:53.240 --> 0:18:56.800 the percentage. What I did was I multiplied that expected 0:18:56.880 --> 0:19:02.119 win percentage times the remains games for each team and 0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:07.120 added those expected wins to their you know, current winds total, 0:19:07.240 --> 0:19:10.840 and that's how I got my expected total wins for 0:19:10.920 --> 0:19:12.240 each team. 0:19:12.680 --> 0:19:15.960 That's awesome. A lot of steps, but it does make 0:19:16.000 --> 0:19:17.679 a lot of sense. And I do like that you 0:19:17.760 --> 0:19:21.280 use weighted runs created as opposed to just runs straight up, 0:19:21.400 --> 0:19:25.800 because it also gives you some predictive qualities to that, 0:19:26.240 --> 0:19:28.919 and I think that helps. The less prediction you have 0:19:29.000 --> 0:19:32.080 to make, the better you are off, right. 0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:33.560 I think too. 0:19:33.920 --> 0:19:36.199 I think everyone listening right now should go read the 0:19:36.280 --> 0:19:38.040 article because I think when you read it and you 0:19:38.080 --> 0:19:39.880 see the formula in front of you and you can 0:19:39.960 --> 0:19:42.200 kind of digest it a little bit easier. 0:19:42.560 --> 0:19:50.520 So definitely, yeah, but yeah, I mean it did interesting, 0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:55.120 interesting results. Right. You have the teams that you expect 0:19:55.119 --> 0:19:55.640 at the top. 0:19:55.720 --> 0:19:58.240 You have the Giants at you know, one of four wins, 0:19:58.240 --> 0:20:01.359 Dodgers at one oh two, the Astros at one hundred, 0:20:01.440 --> 0:20:03.800 and the White Sacks at one hundred. So those are expected, 0:20:04.160 --> 0:20:08.000 but they're way above the field there because the red sox, 0:20:08.119 --> 0:20:12.240 padres and rays are the fifth, sixth, and seven teams 0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:14.760 and they're back in ninety four wins. So the interesting 0:20:14.800 --> 0:20:17.600 thing about these results is it actually created kind of 0:20:17.640 --> 0:20:21.919 a tier system, right. It created four clear favorites at 0:20:21.920 --> 0:20:25.800 the top, another second tier of you know, wild card 0:20:25.840 --> 0:20:29.160 teams plus the AL East n L East are very competitive, 0:20:29.160 --> 0:20:31.560 so all those teams are roped in. There a middle 0:20:31.600 --> 0:20:34.000 tier kind of of like teams that Okay, are they 0:20:34.000 --> 0:20:34.400 gonna buy? 0:20:34.440 --> 0:20:36.000 Are they gonna sell? And then you have the dumpster 0:20:36.040 --> 0:20:36.800 flyers in the back. 0:20:37.280 --> 0:20:38.840 Yeah, Colby, I have a question for you. 0:20:39.320 --> 0:20:41.520 I know that you're our numbers guy, but I know 0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:43.959 you turn on turn on the TV and watch baseball 0:20:43.960 --> 0:20:44.880 every single day just. 0:20:44.760 --> 0:20:45.840 Like we do. 0:20:45.840 --> 0:20:48.560 Do you really think that the Giants are like, really 0:20:48.600 --> 0:20:52.040 in one hundred and four win team? Because I wouldn't 0:20:52.080 --> 0:20:54.879 be shocked, because how can you be now with the 0:20:54.880 --> 0:20:57.399 Giants and how good they've been to start the season. 0:20:57.440 --> 0:20:58.880 I mean, they ended the first half of the best 0:20:58.920 --> 0:21:02.119 record in baseball and they're just rolling like they're pitching 0:21:02.200 --> 0:21:04.720 is good, their offense is good, they're everything down the 0:21:04.720 --> 0:21:05.320 line is good. 0:21:05.760 --> 0:21:07.800 Do you see them really at one oh four? 0:21:08.880 --> 0:21:11.159 So I think that's a good question, and I do 0:21:11.320 --> 0:21:13.679 talk about this a little bit in the article as 0:21:13.720 --> 0:21:16.080 I bring up strength of schedule in the second you 0:21:16.119 --> 0:21:18.600 know part of the article, and strength of schedule is 0:21:18.640 --> 0:21:22.440 really important here because the Giants have to play the Dodgers, 0:21:22.440 --> 0:21:25.040 they have to play the Padres all the time. It's 0:21:25.080 --> 0:21:27.240 just like playing the Al East, right, these teams have 0:21:27.320 --> 0:21:29.640