1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:11,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is Everybody's business. 2 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:13,240 Speaker 1: I'm Max Chafkin and. 3 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:14,520 Speaker 2: I'm Stacy Vanicksmith. 4 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,280 Speaker 3: And Max I would say that we are in the 5 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:22,240 Speaker 3: data doldrums this week. All of the policies and plans 6 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 3: the Trump administration has implemented in his first few months 7 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 3: in office are starting to show up in the data. 8 00:00:28,040 --> 00:00:29,640 Speaker 4: It's not pretty, Stacy. 9 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: The big one is GDP Gross domestic Product. We learned 10 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:37,800 Speaker 1: this week that the economy is shrinking. Obviously not a 11 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 1: good sign, and it seems like the culprit is the 12 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:41,879 Speaker 1: tariffs will get into that. 13 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 3: We also saw a bit of a SmackDown moment between 14 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 3: the Trump administration and Amazon. It was all about tariffs 15 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 3: and transparency. 16 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 4: Spoiler alert. Trump did win that one. 17 00:00:56,640 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, and then we've got David Poppadopolis Eloni Coho horse 18 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 1: racing expert here to talk about the Run for the Roses, 19 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 1: which is coming up this week. He's going to explain 20 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 1: the economics of betting on horses and also the booming 21 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 1: business stacy of horses having sex. 22 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:20,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, apparently it's a very big business. Apparently it's the 23 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:21,960 Speaker 3: world's greatest retirement. 24 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 1: You decide. Also we have. 25 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:27,479 Speaker 4: Our underrated story of the week. 26 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, this could be huge stacy and it's about the moon. 27 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 1: I don't want to worry you, but it might not 28 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 1: be there. 29 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 3: If this story is true, it is by far the 30 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:38,760 Speaker 3: biggest story of the week. 31 00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 4: The Trump administration hit a big milestone this week, one 32 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 4: hundred days President Trump has been in office, and I 33 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 4: have to say, Max, it has been pretty action packed 34 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 4: one hundred days. 35 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 3: Oh yeah, And in fact, even just this week, there 36 00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 3: has been an almost overwhelming amount of news. I'm in 37 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 3: LA this week, and so I thought I would ask 38 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:06,440 Speaker 3: some Angelino's what economic issues they are seeing, what they're 39 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 3: worried about from the news just right now from this week. 40 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 1: If no one brings up Bill Belichick and his girlfriend, 41 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 1: they're lying. 42 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 4: It's a lack of education. 43 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 5: I think we saw with the tariff conversation people being 44 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 5: surprised that they're the ones that are going to have 45 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:22,240 Speaker 5: to pay for it. And I think that's a big 46 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:25,239 Speaker 5: loss to not understand, like how your community works. 47 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 2: I am worried. This is not an economy I like, 48 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 2: and des tariff just makes it the uncertainty. 49 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:33,519 Speaker 1: We don't like uncertainty. I think, no, what he does 50 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:35,320 Speaker 1: I think the whole world worries me. 51 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 2: I don't think there's anything that doesn't worry me, honestly, 52 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 2: just to say, wow, how did we get here? 53 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 6: I'll look on the block and I don't know if 54 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 6: that this is just LA, but I'm definitely seeing a 55 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:51,799 Speaker 6: big drop in lunch crowds. You'd see Conan O'Brien out 56 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 6: there like once a week. We don't see him anymore. Conan, 57 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:57,679 Speaker 6: Are you okay? Yeah, Conan, come on listening. 58 00:02:58,160 --> 00:02:59,360 Speaker 4: I think he definitely is. 59 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 1: Thing is throwing me a little bit stacy, but just 60 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:07,520 Speaker 1: a bundle of anxiety, which I understand because we've been 61 00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 1: talking about one hundred days and there are all these retrospectives, 62 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:14,280 Speaker 1: hundred days, hundred days, hundre days. We want to do 63 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: things a little bit differently this week, and instead of 64 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 1: focusing on the last hundred days, we thought we just 65 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 1: focused like on the last three days or four days, 66 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:25,239 Speaker 1: you know, day one hundred, day one oh one, day 67 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:27,919 Speaker 1: one oh two, day one oh three, because even that 68 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:30,639 Speaker 1: little short amount of time has been crazy. 69 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:31,799 Speaker 4: It's been so. 70 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 3: Crazy, in fact, that we felt like we couldn't cover 71 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 3: the last few days alone, that we needed to bring 72 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 3: in some backup so we brought in the best backup. 73 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 4: Bradstone, editor of Business Week. He is here to help 74 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 4: us sort through this all. 75 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 7: Hey, Brad Hi, I'm Max Hi Stacy. 76 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 1: So let's each of us take an issue. Brad, why 77 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 1: don't you start with what happened on day one hundred. 78 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 5: I think if we're evaluating this week, the one thing 79 00:03:55,680 --> 00:04:00,080 Speaker 5: for me that sticks out is the president's attempt to 80 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 5: mold our perception of a reality that looks increasingly unfavorable 81 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 5: for his policies and for the economy. And let me 82 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 5: put it in perspective. So Amazon has created a site 83 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 5: called Amazon Hall, which is essentially a copy of these 84 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:17,840 Speaker 5: Chinese companies Timu and Chian, and an attempt to basically 85 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:22,479 Speaker 5: import individual products to the United States, you know, cheap, 86 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 5: cheap things like sandals or toys or t shirts, stresses 87 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 5: under this deminimous exception that's now going away to avoid 88 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 5: any import levies. What Amazon was threatened to do is 89 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 5: something that actually Timu has already done, which is to list, 90 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 5: as you would with sales tax, what the tariff price is. 91 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 5: And the White House called this a hostile political act 92 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 5: that Donald Trump picked up the phone and called Jeff Bezos, 93 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 5: presumably either on his yacht or in his mansion in Miami, 94 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:54,599 Speaker 5: and Amazon quickly reversed course. And so in this case, 95 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:59,040 Speaker 5: Trump's attempt to mold our perception of the economic impact 96 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 5: of his policy was sucessful. 97 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:04,840 Speaker 1: Let's just get the perspective from the White House. Kevin Hassett, 98 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 1: Council of Economic Advisor's director, weighed in on Tuesday on 99 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:10,839 Speaker 1: this whole Amazon issue. 100 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:14,040 Speaker 8: The bottom line is that if we charge a tariff 101 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:17,719 Speaker 8: out a foreign country, then if they have itelastic supply 102 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:20,160 Speaker 8: to US, then the supplier in that country is going 103 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 8: to bear the tariff, not the US consumer. And the 104 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:25,039 Speaker 8: idea that Amazon is going to say that the tariff 105 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:27,360 Speaker 8: is passing through to the consumer means that they don't 106 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:28,480 Speaker 8: understand economics. 107 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 1: Can I just say he's not totally wrong. 108 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:34,600 Speaker 3: That's like a hard disagree. I think he is totally wrong, 109 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:37,159 Speaker 3: and he knows he's wrong. He has a PhD in economics. 110 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 3: He knows he's wrong. This is not just like not true. 111 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:42,200 Speaker 1: But the point is if Amazon plays one hundred and 112 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:45,920 Speaker 1: forty five percent tariff and charges ten dollars and then 113 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 1: adds a line item that's one hundred and forty five 114 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 1: percent of its ten dollars of fourteen fifty. That is 115 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: a political act, even though in addition to being like 116 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:56,920 Speaker 1: an act of mathematics, the way these tariffs are going 117 00:05:56,960 --> 00:05:58,840 Speaker 1: to be absorbed is going to be across a bunch 118 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 1: of different constitution and not just end consumers, also workers, 119 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:05,719 Speaker 1: also small businesses, Like everybody pays this tax. 120 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 3: Yes, but the tariffs are being passed through to the 121 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 3: consumer and will continue to be. I mean, companies can't 122 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 3: and won't absorb all of the costs. 123 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:17,919 Speaker 5: There's just no way, right, and that cost will be 124 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 5: absorbed in a number of different places, right the wholesaler, 125 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:23,599 Speaker 5: the manufacturer sells it to Amazon. They might eat some 126 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 5: of the costs. Amazon sets the retail price, it might 127 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 5: eat some of the costs. But how much of that 128 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 5: tariff is being passed on to the consumer. And it 129 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 5: was whatever poor executive or engineer, perhaps now unemployed, devised 130 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:38,919 Speaker 5: this idea. It was not a political act. This was 131 00:06:39,000 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 5: i will say, an Amazonian act, very much in the 132 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 5: vein of early Amazon that they're going to tell you 133 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:46,679 Speaker 5: if you bought a product and the price went down. 134 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:52,720 Speaker 5: This was, you know, genetically a customer focused company that 135 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:56,200 Speaker 5: wants to provide maximum transparency, and the fact that you know, 136 00:06:56,279 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 5: Jeff got this call and immediately reversed course on it, 137 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 5: I think as a really a bit of a sad 138 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 5: commentary on how Amazon has changed over the years. 139 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it just definitely seems like Bezos who 140 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 1: kind of projects this really powerful, he's shirtless, he's got 141 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 1: the cowboy head, and yet the company at least clearly 142 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:17,280 Speaker 1: operating at a disadvantage. And of course not alone like 143 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:22,080 Speaker 1: we've seen other large companies really struggle to try to 144 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:23,680 Speaker 1: stay on the right side of this administration. 145 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 5: And I think what we have seen is that Bezos 146 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 5: in particular has had a very clear sense of where 147 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 5: his larger interests lie. His interest with Blue Origin, Amazon's 148 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 5: interests in its antitrust case with the FTC, and they 149 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 5: have made a business decision since day one of this 150 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 5: administration to try to stay on the right side of 151 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 5: an impetuous president. And we saw that this week. 152 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 1: Okay, that was day one hundred, day one oh one, Stacy, 153 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 1: what happened on day one oh one? 154 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 3: Okay, So for me, the news of the week, bar Nunn, 155 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 3: has got to be Gross Domestic Product GDP. We got 156 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 3: those numbers out this week. It's basically considered to be 157 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 3: the measure of economic growth, kind of the sum total 158 00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 3: of all the goods and services our economy produces. We 159 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 3: got the numbers for the first three months of the year, 160 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 3: the first quarter, and it was actually surprisingly not good. 161 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 3: Our economy shrank for the first three months of the 162 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 3: year for the first time in years. It did not 163 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 3: contract by a lot, just three tens of our percent. 164 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 3: But the economy has been growing pretty steadily over the 165 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 3: last few years. This is a really not great sign 166 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 3: that our economy is slowing down. Of course, if the 167 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 3: economy keeps on slowing down for another few months, we 168 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:33,719 Speaker 3: are in recession territory. 169 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 4: And the culprit here was. 170 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 3: It was tariffs one hundred percent because imports get subtracted 171 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 3: from GDP, and imports were up thirty percent, mostly because 172 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 3: I think companies were importing a whole bunch of stuff 173 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 3: to try to get around tariffs, including of course Apple 174 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:58,079 Speaker 3: very imported apparently six hundred tons of iPhones from India 175 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 3: trying to get around whatever tariffs were going to come down. 176 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 1: Now. Trump blamed this on Biden. He said this was 177 00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 1: the Biden overhang. Is there anything to that or is 178 00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 1: this just like naked politicking, attempting to like blame current 179 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 1: economic numbers on the previous president? 180 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:19,679 Speaker 3: You know, I think there is a point here, which 181 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 3: is that a lot of the best data that we 182 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 3: get has a lag right, Like a lot of these 183 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:28,079 Speaker 3: hard numbers. Things don't show up right away in the economy, 184 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 3: including the tariffs. Like one of the things that I've 185 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 3: heard a lot of people saying is like, there's all 186 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:35,080 Speaker 3: this tariff news, but I haven't really noticed it or 187 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 3: felt it yet. I personally haven't really noticed it or 188 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:39,440 Speaker 3: felt it yet, but it's maybe coming. 189 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:42,840 Speaker 4: I think there is some validity to that. 190 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:46,720 Speaker 3: But just because the thing throwing the numbers off is 191 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 3: this huge amount of imports. I don't think that's because 192 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 3: of Biden. I don't think that companies and people are 193 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 3: importing a whole bunch of stuff before Trump comes into office. 194 00:09:57,520 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 4: This seems directly directly because of tariffs. 195 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:02,040 Speaker 5: To me, I think there is an argument, and we're 196 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:03,840 Speaker 5: just gonna have to see in the next quarter that 197 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 5: you know, when this import sort of demand pull ahead wanes, 198 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 5: when you know the decline in federal spending because of 199 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:14,280 Speaker 5: DOGE as reflected in these numbers, and you know, it 200 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 5: remains to be seen what sort of macro impact these 201 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:19,240 Speaker 5: tariffs will have. I thought one of the most interesting 202 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:22,600 Speaker 5: responses from a White House that really did struggle to 203 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 5: message around this decline of GDP was the President saying 204 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:30,920 Speaker 5: that maybe kids should just have three dolls instead of thirty. 205 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:33,200 Speaker 1: You know, if somebody should, all the shelves are going 206 00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 1: to be open. 207 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 6: Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 208 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:39,679 Speaker 6: thirty dollars, you know, and maybe the two dolls will 209 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 6: cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally. 210 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:44,679 Speaker 5: I mean, you never expected to hear that kind of 211 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 5: message from this president. I think, you know, maybe he 212 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 5: does have a point, but telling Americans to consume less 213 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:53,200 Speaker 5: it was surprising coming from this White. 214 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 1: House as someone whose house is like overflowing with kid crap. 215 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:58,840 Speaker 1: Like I can tell you he definitely has a point, 216 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 1: a point, that's the thing. 217 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:02,280 Speaker 4: Like, it's actually, I think a very good point. 218 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 3: And I think American consumerism maybe has gone a little overboard. 219 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 3: But if we're buying two dollars instead of thirty, that's 220 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 3: really bad for the economy. 221 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 4: That is a recession at least. 222 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:18,960 Speaker 1: You know, my Barbie dreamhouse is going unused and I 223 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 1: feel like. 224 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:23,720 Speaker 4: Barbie Dreamhouse is gonna have to downsize. 225 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 1: I need to talk to my daughter. Day one o two, Stacy, 226 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:29,560 Speaker 1: and it's still happening. So I feel like it's a 227 00:11:29,559 --> 00:11:31,959 Speaker 1: little bit unfair to say that day one oh one 228 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:34,280 Speaker 1: was the big day, because already Day one o two, 229 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 1: Thursday morning, Mike Walls, one of Trump's national security advisors, 230 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 1: one of the central players in the Signal Group chat 231 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 1: affair Stacey and Brad. I hate to say this, but 232 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 1: he's falling on his sword, he's stepping down, he's leaving 233 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:51,240 Speaker 1: the chat. 234 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 3: I mean, that is a big story. I don't think 235 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:56,959 Speaker 3: it's like GDP big, but that's a big one. 236 00:11:57,000 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 4: The day is early, Stacy, The day is yeah early. 237 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 5: I mean, look, I think it's probably good news. It 238 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 5: shows that there's a measure of accountability in an administration 239 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:10,640 Speaker 5: that so far has shown a lack of discipline and experience. 240 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 5: And this was absolutely egregious lapse in national security. And 241 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 5: you know, Trump tried to kind of play it off 242 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 5: at the beginning, and it's interesting that now it has 243 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:21,319 Speaker 5: had repercussions. 244 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:23,320 Speaker 1: Can I give you guys one other thing that's going 245 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 1: to happen. We've gotten through three days, you know, day 246 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 1: one oh three, that's Friday. I don't think this is 247 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 1: going to happen on Friday, but I suppose it's theoretically 248 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 1: possible Trump could be Pope. I hope I'd like to 249 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:41,960 Speaker 1: be pope. That would be my number. 250 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 3: One judge number one out of this does not sound 251 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:49,239 Speaker 3: like something that's news. 252 00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:51,240 Speaker 4: I don't think this counts. 253 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 1: It would win the week. 254 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 3: I will give you that it is bigger than GDP 255 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 3: if Trump becomes the Pope. 256 00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 1: I think it was said in jest. 257 00:12:58,120 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 5: I'm not going to put this in the same category 258 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 5: him ruminating about a third term as president. I think 259 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 5: he was literally joking. But obviously, you know he does 260 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:07,280 Speaker 5: like to be in the spotlight. 261 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 1: Well, Lindsey Graham, senator from South Carolina, noted, sort of 262 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:17,120 Speaker 1: how do I put this? He has at times been 263 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:19,960 Speaker 1: at pains to keep Trump happy. Did a tweet that 264 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:22,560 Speaker 1: I think has to be comic, and if it is, 265 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 1: it's just amazing comedy. I was excited to hear that 266 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 1: President Trump is open to the idea of being the 267 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:29,679 Speaker 1: next pope. This would truly be a dark horse candidate, 268 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: but I would ask the papal conclave and the Catholic 269 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:36,320 Speaker 1: faithful to keep an open mind about this possibility watching 270 00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 1: for White Smoke. I may need to rewatch conclave. This 271 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 1: may be a borderline spoiler. I mean, I know there 272 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:45,920 Speaker 1: are there are always surprise possibilities for Pope, but this 273 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 1: would be something else, all right, Stacey, Saturday, which I 274 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:53,680 Speaker 1: believe is going to be the one hundred and fourth 275 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 1: day of Trump's presidency, is also the one hundred and 276 00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 1: fifty first running of the Kentucky Derby. You know, the 277 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:02,319 Speaker 1: biggest horse race in the country. Are you as excited 278 00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:03,600 Speaker 1: as I am. 279 00:14:03,880 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 3: I'm not a big horse racing person, but it is 280 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 3: quite like the August event. I kind of like all 281 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 3: of the ceremony around it, the hats, the mint julibs, 282 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 3: the you know, Louisville, Kentucky kind of really rolls out 283 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:16,920 Speaker 3: the red carpet. 284 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 4: I've I don't know, I feel like there's something kind 285 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 4: of nice about it. 286 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 1: Well, what's great is that David Popadopolis, who of course 287 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 1: is the host of elon ankor our sister podcast, as 288 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 1: well as Bloomberg Market Sedator. He is like the biggest 289 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 1: gambler that I know, also the biggest Kentucky Derby enthusiast 290 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:37,720 Speaker 1: and somebody who could kind of explain why this kind 291 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 1: of weird race still matters. David, thanks for joining. 292 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 7: Us, Hey Max, Hey Stacy. It should be Derby every 293 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 7: year for Saturday and May. It should be your north 294 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:50,880 Speaker 7: star everything. 295 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 4: In life like all for our north star for the year. 296 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 1: You're David for sure. 297 00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 7: I have to say it's amazing to me that my wife, 298 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:00,920 Speaker 7: after all these years, she'll say to me, when is 299 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 7: the Derby? I said, same as the last year and 300 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 7: the year before that. It's the first Saturday in May. 301 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 4: David, did you buy us a ticket? 302 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 7: No, but I did bring daily racing forms if you'd 303 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 7: like to. 304 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:13,800 Speaker 1: Is the Derby the best one? David? This is the 305 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 1: super Bowl of horses or like. 306 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 7: It is absolutely, by orders of magnitude, the marquee event 307 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 7: in horse racing in the United States. Each year, the purse, 308 00:15:24,320 --> 00:15:26,520 Speaker 7: the amount of money that goes to the winning owners, 309 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 7: is not as great as in some other races. That 310 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 7: doesn't matter. It is how much is it? It is 311 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:35,880 Speaker 7: been bumped up in recent years. It's now up to 312 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:37,680 Speaker 7: five million dollars. 313 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 1: You wrote a newsletter which I believe is published this 314 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:43,720 Speaker 1: morning in Bloomberg's Business of sports newsletter, which everyone should 315 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 1: subscribe to. But you wrote a thing about how basically 316 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 1: this is a dying business. I mean, we are getting 317 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:53,080 Speaker 1: all excited about a business that you said is quote 318 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 1: withering away. 319 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 7: For me, this is a source of great pain and 320 00:15:57,160 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 7: it's a shame. As someone who fell in love with 321 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 7: the game at a young age, I got the bug 322 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 7: from my father, who was a degenerate gambler as well. 323 00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 7: But yeah, it is slowly, but surely, despite all the 324 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 7: industry's efforts, it's slowly shrinking. And what's interesting, of course, 325 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 7: it continues to shrink, and gambling at the racetrack continues 326 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 7: to go down at a time when there's a gambling 327 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 7: boom among us, right, I mean, who among us here 328 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 7: does not have multiple gaming apps on their phone, and 329 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 7: yet that money less and less of that money each 330 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 7: ear goes. 331 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 1: To the track. 332 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 3: It's part of the problem that exactly though, that there 333 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 3: are so many other places to gamble now that there's 334 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 3: just a lot of competition for those those dollars. 335 00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:38,640 Speaker 7: Well, I definitely think that's part of it. I mean, 336 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 7: if you think over the years, if you tracked the 337 00:16:41,080 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 7: arc of gambling, I mean racetrack gambling at the track. 338 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:48,560 Speaker 7: You know, one hundred years ago it was the place 339 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 7: where Americans bet. Horse racing was the biggest sport in 340 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 7: the country. Right. The reason, you know, Seabiscuit became Sea Biscuit. 341 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 7: It was like he was an enormous deal. And there 342 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 7: was two reasons for At one, we were much more 343 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:04,919 Speaker 7: of a rural people, and we were more a horse people, 344 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 7: people who appreciated up Absolutely, we were legitimately more connected 345 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:13,440 Speaker 7: to the horse A and B. There just weren't all 346 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 7: that many other places to bet. And now Stacy, to 347 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:18,800 Speaker 7: your point, there are increasingly more and more and more 348 00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:21,159 Speaker 7: and more places to gamble. It started with you know, 349 00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:23,800 Speaker 7: state lotteries and then this and then that, and now 350 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 7: I mean I've got you know, nephews of mine who 351 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,040 Speaker 7: just they bet on, you know, all sorts of stuff, 352 00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 7: willy nilly, you know, is the coin toss, you know, 353 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 7: the start of football game is going to be heads 354 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 7: or tails. They've bet on everything. 355 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:38,560 Speaker 1: No, it's lame. I feel like there's something lost here. 356 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,880 Speaker 1: And as you talk about, it's this kind of vicious 357 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 1: cycle right where gambling revenues down that you mentioned, the 358 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:47,639 Speaker 1: purses at the Kentucky Derby are up but as I 359 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:50,920 Speaker 1: understand it from your piece, the purses overall are way down, 360 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 1: and then that takes money out of the business, and 361 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,160 Speaker 1: then you have smaller fields and it's less exciting. Who 362 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,919 Speaker 1: wants to bet if there's like only two horses compete and. 363 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:01,679 Speaker 7: Be as few as two, but it would be you 364 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 7: Typically you can get you know, five and six and 365 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:09,120 Speaker 7: seven horse fields, and gamblers want to bet on races 366 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:11,400 Speaker 7: where there are lots of horses, and so you can 367 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 7: get the possibility of box car payouts. 368 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 1: Right. 369 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 7: There are certainly some tracks in the country where persons 370 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:20,400 Speaker 7: that they hand out to the winning owners remain robust 371 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:22,800 Speaker 7: and maybe even growing, But in a lot of tracks 372 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:25,240 Speaker 7: they're down, and nationally they're down. 373 00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:27,119 Speaker 1: I want to just ask one thing. I want to 374 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:30,800 Speaker 1: I think we can convince people to give give this 375 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:34,200 Speaker 1: a chance, you know, don't bet on coin toss or whatever. 376 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 1: But before I do that, I feel like I have 377 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:38,480 Speaker 1: to ask about the deaths at the horse tracks. I mean, 378 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 1: you know, we're talking about the sort of competition angle, 379 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:44,359 Speaker 1: but but I mean, couldn't part of this be a 380 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:48,919 Speaker 1: cultural thing, a feeling that we saw this spate of 381 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 1: fatalities at Santa Anito it's one of the big tracks. 382 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:56,199 Speaker 1: You have allegations of doping and having actually seen this 383 00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:58,840 Speaker 1: at horse track in my life, like it's very upsetting. 384 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:00,639 Speaker 7: You've seen them dope the horses. 385 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 1: Horse yeah die and couldn't that be part of it. 386 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:07,360 Speaker 1: It's like a version of some of the same dynamics 387 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:11,159 Speaker 1: that people have talked about in say football or boxing 388 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:13,640 Speaker 1: and so on. Just like people not wanting to participate 389 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:15,920 Speaker 1: in a sport where animals are potentially suffering. 390 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 7: I would say this, it certainly doesn't help, and I 391 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:22,159 Speaker 7: would say it has, you know, driven some away. I 392 00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:25,120 Speaker 7: don't think it's honestly like a major factor, but it's 393 00:19:25,119 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 7: been an enormous black eye for them, and they've worked very, 394 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 7: very very hard to take measures to drive fatalities back 395 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:33,359 Speaker 7: down and they've kind of got them a bit more 396 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,119 Speaker 7: under control. But Max, there are absolutely people out there 397 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:39,200 Speaker 7: who will say one fatality a year is too many. 398 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 7: But is that like a key driver for driving you know, 399 00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 7: gambling volume down at the track. I think it's more 400 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:49,160 Speaker 7: what Stacy was saying, it's just this increasing competition from 401 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:50,120 Speaker 7: other forms of gambling. 402 00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:51,600 Speaker 4: Well, also, like. 403 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 3: Think in horse racing, I know that when NFTs were 404 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,200 Speaker 3: having their big moment there was z run. 405 00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 4: Did you hear about this story? 406 00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 3: Is like this multi million dollar virtual horse track and 407 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:04,159 Speaker 3: it is still going. 408 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 1: Oh no, it's still virtual horses instead of the real one. 409 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 3: Oh yeah, that's the Yeah, you've been on virtual horses, 410 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,920 Speaker 3: like thirty million dollar valuation. 411 00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 4: For this company, Like it's it's real. People love it. 412 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 3: I mean, I guess it's like randomly generated randomly, Stacy. 413 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,680 Speaker 7: You've got to throw air quotes around randomly randomly. 414 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:26,400 Speaker 4: But you can buy a horse. 415 00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:30,200 Speaker 3: People lend their horses out to stud of course, in 416 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:32,400 Speaker 3: within like NFT horses. 417 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:33,919 Speaker 4: I mean, it's it's growing. 418 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 7: I would just say that Max. You've been to the truck, Stacey, 419 00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 7: have you ever been to. 420 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:37,720 Speaker 1: A race truck? 421 00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:40,160 Speaker 4: I've never seen a horse race. Actually, I've never seen 422 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:40,720 Speaker 4: horse race. 423 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:42,919 Speaker 7: It is if you were to go to a Saratoga 424 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:46,000 Speaker 7: race course or a keen one in Lexington, Kentucky, or 425 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:48,280 Speaker 7: and you see the horses up close to Bersonil, it's 426 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 7: a spectacular, spectacular setting, much better than the fake race. 427 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 1: All right, So we'll get to your picks in a second. 428 00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 1: But there is money in this business still, and the money, 429 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,960 Speaker 1: of course is in the breeding is in the horses, 430 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:07,080 Speaker 1: the horse sex, the horse sex. Now, as I understand 431 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 1: the term of art here is cover. That is when 432 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:10,520 Speaker 1: the horses. 433 00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 7: They do, and when the sire covers the. 434 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:16,600 Speaker 1: Mayor exactly, and and that in thoroughbred horses they no 435 00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:18,680 Speaker 1: artificial inseminade. She's got to be all. 436 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:21,359 Speaker 7: Natural, natural cover on natural. 437 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 4: Really why though? 438 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:24,520 Speaker 1: So it is stacy. 439 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:26,679 Speaker 4: Wait, why does it have to be natural cover? That 440 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:27,480 Speaker 4: can't be true. 441 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 7: It's just small. 442 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:29,160 Speaker 2: That can't be true. 443 00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:31,959 Speaker 7: It is, It is true, certainly is true. There are 444 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 7: even stacy teaser stallions whose lone job it is these 445 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:40,800 Speaker 7: poor male horses. It's just to approach the mayor and 446 00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:43,800 Speaker 7: make sure she's receptive so that you don't send your 447 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 7: multimillion dollars stallion into the breeding. 448 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,560 Speaker 1: Shed with an uninterested it's a very. 449 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,399 Speaker 7: Uninterested, ornery mayor who then proceeds to kick him in 450 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,480 Speaker 7: the head and knock him out, and you're one hundred 451 00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:54,040 Speaker 7: million dollars. 452 00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:56,880 Speaker 4: I was like, is the worry that the stallion's gonna 453 00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:57,400 Speaker 4: feel bad? 454 00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:02,880 Speaker 7: But I don't think they're worried about his feelings. Natural cover. 455 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:06,720 Speaker 7: So the jockey club, which is the group that oversees, 456 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,399 Speaker 7: you know, the blue bloods, you know, the Carnegie and 457 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 7: the Melons and the Vanderbilt types and the Phippses, who 458 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 7: have overseen the industry for decades. They insist it be 459 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,640 Speaker 7: this way. That way they can ensure that the breed, 460 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 7: the thoroughbred breed, the breeding of the Arabian stallion to 461 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:31,119 Speaker 7: the British mayors generations ago, that the breed is kept pure. 462 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,200 Speaker 7: And so there's someone there who will witness the act 463 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:37,440 Speaker 7: to make sure that this stallion bred with this mayre. 464 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:39,800 Speaker 4: This feels very medieval. 465 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,440 Speaker 1: Perhaps, yes, And what kind of money are we talking 466 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:42,960 Speaker 1: about here? 467 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:46,639 Speaker 7: So, like, the one great example that I like to 468 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:50,240 Speaker 7: put out there now is this stallion into mischief, who 469 00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 7: is the you know, hot stallion out there in the 470 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:59,000 Speaker 7: country right now now into mischief per natural cover stacy. 471 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,880 Speaker 7: His owners are paid two hundred fifty thousand dollars. That's 472 00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:06,440 Speaker 7: his fee. He's essentially a very expensive Jigglo. What two 473 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 7: hundred and fifty thousand do you pay? Okay? So the 474 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 7: two hundred fIF what if. 475 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,000 Speaker 4: It doesn't result in a pregnancy. 476 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,080 Speaker 7: Two hundred Although the two hundred and fifty thousand dollars 477 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:22,840 Speaker 7: fee typically says stands and nurses. So the breeding session 478 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 7: has to lead to a pregnancy, Okay, a full term 479 00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 7: pregnancy or a pregnancy that leads to the birth of 480 00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,879 Speaker 7: a foal. The foal has got a stand up and nurse. 481 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:35,200 Speaker 7: Once it stands in nurses, the owner of the mayor 482 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:38,000 Speaker 7: the female horse sends a two hundred fifty thousand dollars 483 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:40,879 Speaker 7: check to the owner of the stallions. Now Stacey a 484 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,440 Speaker 7: top stallion like Into Mischief, that two hundred and fifty 485 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,159 Speaker 7: thousand dollars fee. Multiply it by about one hundred and 486 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:50,920 Speaker 7: fifty times a year, about forty million dollars a year. 487 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,040 Speaker 4: That horse is flying all around the country. 488 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:56,480 Speaker 7: No, no, no, no, no. The mayor's come to him. 489 00:23:57,680 --> 00:23:58,800 Speaker 1: The mayors come to him. 490 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:01,000 Speaker 7: You're you're the big you know you don't. 491 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,640 Speaker 1: Go after the teaser horse has gone out there. 492 00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:07,520 Speaker 7: And so the forty million dollars a year roughly that 493 00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 7: Into Mischief would generate during his entire racing career on 494 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,080 Speaker 7: the track is a blue blooded horse on the Raceharck, 495 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 7: he earned just under six hundred thousand dollars. So that'll 496 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 7: that'll tell you where the money is. Six hundred thousand 497 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 7: dollars earned at the track. He makes that in three 498 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:28,440 Speaker 7: days in the check three very and he probably enjoys 499 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:29,080 Speaker 7: it more. 500 00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:34,479 Speaker 1: Very though, does he? Anyway? Before we wrap, David, you know, 501 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 1: I feel like just listeners listening to this, like, you know, 502 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:41,040 Speaker 1: horse racing, as you said, it's it's not the most 503 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,919 Speaker 1: popular sport you've done for a long time and your 504 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:45,359 Speaker 1: father's done for a long time. Like why do you 505 00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 1: find it exciting? Like why do you find it interesting? 506 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,960 Speaker 1: Give us the case for like why Stacey and I 507 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:53,720 Speaker 1: need to take this racing for him and put down 508 00:24:53,720 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 1: a bet. 509 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,359 Speaker 7: Well, because I would say it's many things. It is 510 00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:00,159 Speaker 7: truly the beauty of the horse and the spectacle the 511 00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,720 Speaker 7: race and the adrenaline rush you get whether you've bet 512 00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:05,639 Speaker 7: two dollars on a race or one hundred dollars on 513 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 7: a race when the horses are going around the far 514 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:09,159 Speaker 7: turn and come in the stretch, is just something that's 515 00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:11,239 Speaker 7: a great thrill to it. I would say it is 516 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,440 Speaker 7: handicapping races, you know, unlike, hey, is it going to 517 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:17,639 Speaker 7: be heads or tails in this coin toss? Which is 518 00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:21,679 Speaker 7: pretty goddamn random thing. It is an incredible puzzle that 519 00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 7: you can spend hours and hours, you know, working at 520 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 7: or I mean you also could spend thirty seconds and 521 00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:32,120 Speaker 7: do it randomly. But it's a great challenge and it's 522 00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:35,360 Speaker 7: something that as a handicapper, which is what they call us, 523 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,640 Speaker 7: you know, one who studies the racing form and bets 524 00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,119 Speaker 7: on races, you know, it's a never ending quest to 525 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,439 Speaker 7: add tools to your tool chest and keep you know, 526 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,880 Speaker 7: improving as a as a handicapper and as a gambler. 527 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 7: And so, I don't know. To me, it's the it's 528 00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:47,760 Speaker 7: the world's greatest game. 529 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,920 Speaker 1: All right. This is not gambling advice or investing advice, 530 00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 1: but help make me and Stacey some money. Who are 531 00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,840 Speaker 1: we betting on? For the Who's who is David Poppatopolis? 532 00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:58,480 Speaker 4: Where does he going long on? 533 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,640 Speaker 7: Yeah, there's one inch thing about gambling in the Kentucky 534 00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:05,720 Speaker 7: Derby long shots. If you bet on nothing but long 535 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,960 Speaker 7: shots thirty to one, fifty to one, eighty to one, 536 00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,680 Speaker 7: your return over the years has tended to be really, 537 00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:12,920 Speaker 7: really good because the Derby's kind of a random race. 538 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,040 Speaker 7: Twenty horses on the race track. That's a lot of horses. 539 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,520 Speaker 7: As we talked earlier, the typical race could be five, six, seven, 540 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,160 Speaker 7: eight horses. So you get traffic jams, you get collisions, 541 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,439 Speaker 7: you get weird things. It's a distance. None of these 542 00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,120 Speaker 7: horses I've ever been before, so that's a huge question mark. 543 00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,400 Speaker 7: The crowd size, one hundred and fifty thousand people, horses 544 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,720 Speaker 7: spook their skittish prey animals, So if you were to 545 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,439 Speaker 7: sort of lean into long shots, that's not a terrible idea. 546 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:39,280 Speaker 7: My pick around ten to one, twelve to one is 547 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,679 Speaker 7: named Burnham Square, which means he'll probably come in last, 548 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 7: but that would be my pick. I will say that 549 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,919 Speaker 7: the favorite, the big favorite in the race tomorrow, Stacy, 550 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:54,480 Speaker 7: you'll be happy to hear, is named Journalism, which is 551 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:55,480 Speaker 7: pretty cool, right. 552 00:26:55,520 --> 00:27:06,200 Speaker 2: I would not bet on journalism. 553 00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:07,720 Speaker 3: We're now to the part of our show where we 554 00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:11,440 Speaker 3: talk about an underrated story of the week. David, I'm 555 00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:13,680 Speaker 3: very glad you stuck around for this one because it 556 00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:14,919 Speaker 3: is it's big. 557 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:17,400 Speaker 1: This is a big one, It's this is the ultimate 558 00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:18,200 Speaker 1: huge if true. 559 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:19,600 Speaker 7: Wouldn't miss it for the world. 560 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 4: Max, you found the story. 561 00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:25,600 Speaker 1: Stacy, I'm afraid to report that there are people who 562 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:27,520 Speaker 1: believe and you're gonna want to sit down for this. 563 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:31,159 Speaker 1: You two, David the moon, Yeah, it might be gone. 564 00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:32,120 Speaker 7: No idea. 565 00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:36,600 Speaker 3: Stacy helped me so Max mentioned this story to me 566 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 3: earlier in the week, and I have to say it 567 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:43,960 Speaker 3: is really one of the most intriguing stories I have 568 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:44,840 Speaker 3: heard in a while. 569 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:47,960 Speaker 1: April twenty eighth, ninety ninth day of the Trump presidency. 570 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:51,880 Speaker 1: For those keeping track, Trump's White House had a new 571 00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:55,320 Speaker 1: media briefing. So, you know, in addition to the press 572 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,320 Speaker 1: who come and are brief by Caroline Levitt the Press Secretaria, 573 00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,879 Speaker 1: they had a sort of influencer briefing where a bunch 574 00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:05,720 Speaker 1: of kind of like TikTokers showed up to ask questions. 575 00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:09,679 Speaker 1: It was you know, I watched it. It was surreal. 576 00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,800 Speaker 1: It kind of had the feeling of like a Saturday 577 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 1: Night Live skit. Part of the reason was because you 578 00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:17,879 Speaker 1: had all these kind of weird characters. You had this 579 00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:22,639 Speaker 1: TikTok influencer link Lauren. Immediately the left wing started calling 580 00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:27,399 Speaker 1: him Maga Malfoy because he looks like Malfoy from Harry Potter. 581 00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:31,240 Speaker 1: And then my favorite, Cambriy Nelson of the America First 582 00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:35,119 Speaker 1: Policy Institute, her question I was a real softball. She asked, 583 00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 1: what question should I ask? And Caroline Lovett was very happy, 584 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,880 Speaker 1: hard hitting stuff. I mean, honestly, this is it is cool. 585 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:43,440 Speaker 1: That they are they're bringing. 586 00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,200 Speaker 3: How did they get to the noon mediais yes, yes, 587 00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:47,520 Speaker 3: you're bearing the lead. 588 00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:48,760 Speaker 4: Magis you're bearing the lead. 589 00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 1: Cambriy Nelson, in addition to you know, tweeting about Maga stuff, 590 00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:56,560 Speaker 1: has tweeted a number of times about various I guess, 591 00:28:56,800 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 1: planetary conspiracy theories, one of which was the idea that 592 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:05,800 Speaker 1: someone I don't know who had had essentially like stolen 593 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:09,520 Speaker 1: the moon. She tweeted, has anyone seen the moon lately? 594 00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:13,160 Speaker 1: I've been looking for seven days, And then there was 595 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:14,840 Speaker 1: kind of a back and forth. 596 00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:18,000 Speaker 7: Was a cloudy outside, but that kicked off a. 597 00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,480 Speaker 3: Whole thing of people saying like, I can't see the 598 00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:21,000 Speaker 3: moon either. 599 00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:22,080 Speaker 4: Is the moon gone? 600 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:23,240 Speaker 1: To? 601 00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:24,760 Speaker 7: What end? If you steal the moon? 602 00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:27,600 Speaker 1: Then I mean, what's the Honestly, I don't know. But 603 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:30,880 Speaker 1: this went further is some of one of her fans, 604 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 1: you know, greed and then she wrote why is everyone 605 00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:37,080 Speaker 1: silent about this? They're quiet about the white Sun too, 606 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:40,760 Speaker 1: which I learned is a second conspiracy theory. So there 607 00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,600 Speaker 1: are people who believe this is like in the flat earth. 608 00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:45,760 Speaker 7: World, it's all happening in the White House. 609 00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:48,840 Speaker 4: No, this is like it's the new press Corps. 610 00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:50,920 Speaker 1: This is the new Press Corps. This is like their 611 00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:54,160 Speaker 1: version of Everybody's business or what. I'm so confusient, so 612 00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:57,080 Speaker 1: is anybody? Does anybody persuade it here? I mean the 613 00:29:57,120 --> 00:29:59,240 Speaker 1: moon could be Have we looked at the moon lately? 614 00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:01,040 Speaker 1: Is it there? I will? 615 00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,360 Speaker 7: I have to admit that I have not seen it recently. 616 00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,800 Speaker 1: This show is produced by Stacy Wong. Magnus Hendrickson is 617 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:15,760 Speaker 1: our supervising producer, Amy keenar editor, and Brendan Francis Newnham 618 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:20,160 Speaker 1: is our executive producer. Sage Bauman heads Bloomberg Podcasts. If 619 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,959 Speaker 1: you have a story that should be our business, email 620 00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:25,960 Speaker 1: us at Everybody's with an S at Bloomberg dot net. 621 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:29,440 Speaker 1: That's everybody with an s at Bloomberg dot net. Thanks 622 00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:31,560 Speaker 1: for listening and we will see you next week.