Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,
Speaker 1: your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation,
Speaker 1: and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now,
Speaker 1: here's your host, Paul. Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly. I'm
Speaker 1: Paul charge In my co host as usual, Brian Johnson,
Speaker 1: what's up, Charge? Hey, great to have you here. It's
Speaker 1: a beautiful spring weekend in Minnesota. Hope it's fantastic wherever
Speaker 1: you are as well. The next series of shows are
Speaker 1: gonna be dedicated to rookies. Brian, Yeah, it's about that time.
Speaker 1: Let's get this draft going. Let's get the draft going.
Speaker 1: I know it's uh, you know, it always feels like
Speaker 1: there's a long, long lead up to the draft, But
Speaker 1: I think it's just because we care and you know,
Speaker 1: we spend two or three months planning for it and
Speaker 1: looking forward to it. Now, do you think these rookies,
Speaker 1: because I think we got to touch on this, that
Speaker 1: we're playing seven team games. Now, imagine going into your
Speaker 1: starting a new company and they're like, well, you're gonna
Speaker 1: have to work an extra extra week, extra at least
Speaker 1: half per day something like that. I think they're excited
Speaker 1: about this or uh, they're they're young, they should be. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they're they're gonna be They're gonna be fine. I mean, look,
Speaker 1: this is a this is the players negotiated this themselves.
Speaker 1: So you know, I don't know if the owners took
Speaker 1: advantage of the players that you're ago at this time
Speaker 1: when they when they negotiated this deal in the depths
Speaker 1: of the pandemic or not. But quick thumbs up or
Speaker 1: thumbs down from a fantasy perspective, seven, Yeah, I'm with you.
Speaker 1: Excuse with the records. We love talking records and those
Speaker 1: are certainly pertinent to fantasy football. And man, these guys,
Speaker 1: they essentially put their lives on the line for the
Speaker 1: sake of players. They're highly compensated, they are they're getting
Speaker 1: in too. There's no surprise for them that this is
Speaker 1: a contact game. Um, but you know, we already have
Speaker 1: a lot of injuries, and we already have a lot
Speaker 1: of situations where guys missed a lot of time. And
Speaker 1: I I just and I always felt like sixteen games
Speaker 1: was plenty of time to figure out who was the
Speaker 1: champion of your league. And you know, I didn't feel
Speaker 1: like there was uh, there was a real problem, like well,
Speaker 1: you know, you know so and so in the championship.
Speaker 1: But if we'd have gone one more week, you know,
Speaker 1: then the outcome would have been different. And with sixteen weeks,
Speaker 1: really the best team in your league usually gets screwed
Speaker 1: anyway too, right, there's plenty of those two weeks or
Speaker 1: plenty of time to let the best team in your
Speaker 1: league just go belly up. It does happen a lot
Speaker 1: that way. So this week we're going to talk about
Speaker 1: rookie quarterbacks, and we'll turn our attention to different positions
Speaker 1: in each of the weeks leading up to the draft,
Speaker 1: and then obviously after the draft, we'll do a series
Speaker 1: of shows about where these guys all landed up and
Speaker 1: what we think they're their fantasy value is gonna be like,
Speaker 1: and so for these shows before the often it's largely
Speaker 1: about familiarizing ourselves with the fantasy notable players that we
Speaker 1: think can make a difference, especially in short order with
Speaker 1: their teams, beginning at the quarterback position. So we're gonna
Speaker 1: hit on six guys, Trevor Lawrence, Zack Wilson, Justin Fields,
Speaker 1: Trey Lands, Mac Jones, and the sixth guy is just
Speaker 1: a favorite of mine. Davis Mills, who I'm really intrigued by.
Speaker 1: There's the big five and then you're your sixth quarterback
Speaker 1: is TBD. But I'm with you on on Mills. He's
Speaker 1: really intriguing. I'm really drinking right and I'm not I'm
Speaker 1: not guaranteeing he's going to be an impact player in
Speaker 1: the NFL, but he's got the upside to do that
Speaker 1: if things break right for him. And um, and we'll
Speaker 1: talk more about Davis Mills at the end of this.
Speaker 1: Let's begin with Trevor Lawrence Brian Um. Everybody knows that
Speaker 1: he's they're barring a shot going to go to Jacksonville
Speaker 1: with the first overall pick. Let's talk about him and
Speaker 1: what he'll bring to the table, presumably for Jacksonville. Yeah,
Speaker 1: nine percent chancey he ends up with the Jaguars, and uh,
Speaker 1: if he does, he should be the starter. Ye right
Speaker 1: out of the game. Sorry Gardner, Minshew and you all
Speaker 1: you Minshew Bobos and some exciting weapons in Jacksonville. In
Speaker 1: d J. Chark, the newly acquired Marvin Jones, the vastly
Speaker 1: underrated Marvin Jones as marked on for weeks, Laviska Chennault,
Speaker 1: James Robinson and running back. And I mean at this point,
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence, we know he checks all the boxes on paper,
Speaker 1: size and the metrics in college the most, the winning
Speaker 1: ist uh quarterback against Power five schools, and he's played
Speaker 1: like twice as many as the other quarterback prospects. He's
Speaker 1: just great. A blue chip prospect. What can you say?
Speaker 1: So I think he's he's more. You know, at this
Speaker 1: time last year, we're talking about Joe Burrow as being,
Speaker 1: you know, an astounding blue chip prospect, which you was,
Speaker 1: but Lords has done it for longer and it seems
Speaker 1: even more battle tested and more likely. And Burrows turned
Speaker 1: out great, more likely to be headed for a successful
Speaker 1: NFL career than than Burrow was. And the in the
Speaker 1: enticing thing with the Jaguars from a fantasy perspective is
Speaker 1: they're not a great team. Maybe they're on their way up,
Speaker 1: but it's it tends to have their offense chasing points
Speaker 1: more often than not. So it's a great point. Right now,
Speaker 1: Lawrence is going off the board, and like in best
Speaker 1: ball leagues, rejaft leagues, like quarterback sixteen, he's right, He's
Speaker 1: going right after Matt Ryan's, the Joe Burrows, Ryan, Tannehills,
Speaker 1: Matt Stafford, and before Kirk Cousins Baker Mayfield. So he's
Speaker 1: settled right into that fantasy relevant territory for a guy
Speaker 1: who's not all that mobile. I mean, he's he's mobile,
Speaker 1: but he's not like the other guys we're going to
Speaker 1: talk about, right, He's not like Justin Fields and Trey Lance.
Speaker 1: That's a pretty high ranking for for a guy who's
Speaker 1: gonna make most of his points with his arm as
Speaker 1: a rookie in Jacksonville. And he's certainly viable as a backup,
Speaker 1: but I don't I want him as my backup if
Speaker 1: I have like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is my starter, right,
Speaker 1: I think I think the ceiling is very high for
Speaker 1: Lawrence in his first year as a rookie, just from
Speaker 1: a redraft perspective, But the floor is also very scary.
Speaker 1: So if I'm rolling out Matthew Stafford or Baker Mayfield
Speaker 1: is my QB one, I don't know if Trevor Lawrence
Speaker 1: is the backup I really want. I want like an
Speaker 1: elite option in one quarterback leagues. If I'm contemplating Lawrence
Speaker 1: so let's let's talk about his longer term outlook with
Speaker 1: Jacksonville for Dynasty and Empire League players. For Trevor Lawrence, um, there,
Speaker 1: the offense is not the problem so much in Jacksonville.
Speaker 1: It's a horrible defense. And he does have some weapons
Speaker 1: around him, and mostly young weapons. No, not so much Jones,
Speaker 1: Marvin Jones, but other people around him. That suggests that,
Speaker 1: you know, there could be a long and reasonably good
Speaker 1: run for Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville. And you know, as
Speaker 1: we'll talk through the rest of the guys, I don't
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know that I would take
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence first in the Dynasty draft because of the
Speaker 1: running prowess we're gonna get with these other guys. And
Speaker 1: you mean in a startup, not just a rookie, not
Speaker 1: just a rookie trap, but in a Dynasty start up,
Speaker 1: his value is up from re draft. He's in the
Speaker 1: eight quarterback eight nine range. I mean, of course Mahomes,
Speaker 1: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, justin Herbert Dak Prescott
Speaker 1: and then right, but he's right in the mix there
Speaker 1: with Russell Wilson. If you're starting a startup league, Russell Wilson,
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence. Like he's right. If those
Speaker 1: three guys, he's right in that mix. In the top ten,
Speaker 1: let's go to Zach Wilson, presumably the the second quarterback
Speaker 1: expected to be taken in the draft, that'd be by
Speaker 1: the Jets. We should say, yeah, so Jacksonville. Of course,
Speaker 1: Jets at number two. Niner is probably at three, and
Speaker 1: then Falkin's Panthers Broncos are like the real quarterback needy teams.
Speaker 1: And we'll talk about when we get to pick four,
Speaker 1: we'll talk about that a little bit more. But I,
Speaker 1: you know, pick two, I don't think the Jet Jets
Speaker 1: would be more on it not to take a quarterback here,
Speaker 1: even if they love Sam Donald. And by the way,
Speaker 1: nothing bugs me more than teams that are totally cool
Speaker 1: with having competitions at every position, but not quarterback. Oh no,
Speaker 1: our frail the frail psyche of our quarterbacks. If we
Speaker 1: if they, if they do draft Zack Wilson here, everybody
Speaker 1: just assumes they have to move Sam Donald. My feeling is, why,
Speaker 1: you know, Sam Donald might still be a good quarterback,
Speaker 1: You're gonna get a third round pick or maybe a
Speaker 1: second round pick for Sam Donald. He's worth more to
Speaker 1: just keep and find make sure you know what you've
Speaker 1: got in him, because Donald has flashed moments of greatness,
Speaker 1: and he's been in such a bad position over his
Speaker 1: entire career with terrible coaching and a bad offensive line
Speaker 1: and few good receivers. Man, if you're the Jets, just
Speaker 1: I keep both guys and let him battle it out
Speaker 1: and see who see who what you've got? And maybe
Speaker 1: you have great quarterbacks? Fine, how many NFL teams have
Speaker 1: two starting caliber quarterbacks on their team? Not and Donald?
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, if the Jets do not take a
Speaker 1: quarterback or trade down from two, and I guess the
Speaker 1: worst case, you know, I said the worst thing apage
Speaker 1: that they're both good. I guess really the worst seeing
Speaker 1: appage that they're both bad. But still you needed to
Speaker 1: draft Uno the quarterback to find out one of them
Speaker 1: was bad. She's not a great asset for for trade
Speaker 1: purposes in the future. So so Zach Wilson presumed the
Speaker 1: to go to the Jets. And even if he doesn't, fascinating,
Speaker 1: fascinating guy. And I gotta warn you when we talk
Speaker 1: about Zach Wilson. You're going to think we're talking about
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes because the skill set is really similar. But
Speaker 1: to be clear, obviously he's gonna have to prove a
Speaker 1: lot before he's even remotely on par with Patrick Mahomes.
Speaker 1: But the skill set is similar. Did his dad picture
Speaker 1: the twins? Though, that's probably he's missing that from from
Speaker 1: his bag. So Zach Wilson has a special NFL caliber
Speaker 1: arm and in better than that, I mean his arm.
Speaker 1: His arm ability alone could put him in the top
Speaker 1: five of NFL quarterbacks if he realizes his potential. The
Speaker 1: arm is fantastic. He has a shocking ability to throw
Speaker 1: deep strikes and not even with planted feet. Much like Mahomes,
Speaker 1: who can throw crazy accurate deep passes while on a
Speaker 1: dead run. There is some of that with Zack Wilson too.
Speaker 1: He doesn't have to plant his feet to throw deep
Speaker 1: balls and accurately and just effort effortlessly. He's just he
Speaker 1: He just flicks his wrist and the balls going forty
Speaker 1: five yards downfield. He had a sixty five yard pass
Speaker 1: in a game last year against I think it was Western,
Speaker 1: uh Western, it was Wyoming or somebody um and he
Speaker 1: just made it. Look it just effortless. Just do you
Speaker 1: worry out of b y U? Of course is Zach
Speaker 1: Well Wilson is UM a Mormon in the Big Apple
Speaker 1: uch in general, right, the football culture, shock of going
Speaker 1: to the Jets. But but yeah, he didn't seem like
Speaker 1: he would be the number, the consensus number two. But
Speaker 1: he has uh, it seems it's leaning that way. It
Speaker 1: is um incredibly efficient release with very little wind up
Speaker 1: as well. So he's got the quick release, which we
Speaker 1: love that. It's just that many fewer sacks, the ability
Speaker 1: to get rid of the ball quickly. Super smart guy,
Speaker 1: you know, book smart. You know, he's an excellent student. UM.
Speaker 1: By all accounts, he ingests the playbook extremely well. So
Speaker 1: there's a lot to like about Zack Wilson. The things
Speaker 1: that we're gonna look out for are some minor mechanical
Speaker 1: issues like holding the ball too high. He holds the ball,
Speaker 1: he holds the ball up almost at helmet or ear
Speaker 1: level rocket launcher. Yeah, a little bit, right, So they'll,
Speaker 1: you know, they'll work on that. Um. Some people point
Speaker 1: out that he's playing behind in the lead offensive line.
Speaker 1: That meant that he didn't you he had the luxury
Speaker 1: of a lot of time, and that may be, you know,
Speaker 1: that has skewed a little bit of the productivity that
Speaker 1: he's had and injuries limited him to really one year
Speaker 1: of high level play. But what you see when you
Speaker 1: you look at Zack Wilson's games are just remarkable. He
Speaker 1: if he does go to the Jets, Brian Corey Davis,
Speaker 1: Denzel Mims, and Jamison Crowder all all get a big
Speaker 1: bump here. And I think this is a great opportunity
Speaker 1: for Dynasty and Umpire leaguers keeper leaguers to target those
Speaker 1: guys now, especially the Denzel Mims owner right now is
Speaker 1: like h I blew that pick last year. There could
Speaker 1: be a chance that Zack Wilson to Denzel Mims is
Speaker 1: going to be a great combination for a long time.
Speaker 1: So I'm I'd be interested in in those in picking
Speaker 1: up those guys on on the cheap right now in
Speaker 1: Dynasty and Empire leagues. You know, for Wilson um in
Speaker 1: terms of redraft, I think he's gonna be He's just
Speaker 1: a backup. I think in his rookie year. Now, rookies
Speaker 1: can become starters like Justin Herbert Right and Joe Burrow,
Speaker 1: those guys were fantasy starters and that he has the
Speaker 1: possibility to do that. Um, it's there's a little bit
Speaker 1: of Jets bias here. I just I don't know for
Speaker 1: sure that in you're one that Jets gonna turn it
Speaker 1: around enough for him to be fantasy viable on a
Speaker 1: regular basis, But he Zack Wilson should get drafted. Yeah,
Speaker 1: like a guy if you're, of course a quarterback league,
Speaker 1: and depending on how deep your league is, but at
Speaker 1: least twelve to fourteen teams, if you're again drafting a
Speaker 1: guy like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, one of these bigger
Speaker 1: name quarterbacks that you're essentially gonna start every week, but
Speaker 1: they're bye week and you're gonna, you know, just fade
Speaker 1: quarterback the rest of the way until the last round.
Speaker 1: Zack Wilson's in a Greek candidate. All right, let's go
Speaker 1: to pick number three. This is San Francisco or quarterback
Speaker 1: number three, San Francisco pick. Um, it's gonna come down.
Speaker 1: Everybody believes it's gonna come down to Justin Fields or
Speaker 1: Mac Jones. The the people who seem closest to the
Speaker 1: Niners are all saying mac Jones, which surprises me. A
Speaker 1: little bit because I think I would pick Justin Fields,
Speaker 1: but it um both guys very intriguing. Let's let's talk
Speaker 1: Justin Fields first and break his dame his game down
Speaker 1: for us a little bit. All right, Justin Fields out
Speaker 1: of Ohio State, who doesn't have the best track record
Speaker 1: when it comes to producing pro quarterbacks starting with Dwayne Haskins. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that doesn't necessarily mean they can't play. I just don't think.
Speaker 1: I just don't think that stuff matters that much. He's
Speaker 1: the most intriguing prospect probably to ever come out of
Speaker 1: the Ohio I don't come to quarterback. Spent a long
Speaker 1: time anyway. Uh. He proved his toughness in the college
Speaker 1: playoffs last year. Essentially died in the semifinal, not really,
Speaker 1: but he broke like two ribs, came back and played
Speaker 1: in the championship. They lost. I think I'm not great
Speaker 1: with college football, but Fields in an amazing athlete. And
Speaker 1: we'll get to how he's a good thrower of the football.
Speaker 1: But the all time quarterback forty yard dash times. Now,
Speaker 1: this isn't combine official Justin Fields today official four four
Speaker 1: or four for Justin Fields. And next up was Russell
Speaker 1: Wilson at four or five five, Cam Newton four or
Speaker 1: five nine, same as Jalen hurt So an elite runner,
Speaker 1: elite runner, wide receiver speed out of out of the
Speaker 1: quarterback position with justin fields. But he proved you could
Speaker 1: throw the ball pretty well last year. Um, here's the
Speaker 1: percentage of total passing yards um from run pass, option
Speaker 1: plays and screen passes last year, amongst so you know,
Speaker 1: cheap yards. Trevor Lawrence of his yards came from r
Speaker 1: P O s, screen passes, Mac Jones twenty two and
Speaker 1: a half percent, then Zack Wilson twelve percent, Trey Lands
Speaker 1: eleven percent, dead last, which is good in this regard.
Speaker 1: He's starting justin fields. Eight and a half percent his
Speaker 1: yards came from r pos and screen passes, So he
Speaker 1: he is a viable quarterback end right now in redrafts.
Speaker 1: He's going a little at his act fields. He's in
Speaker 1: right around QB two range. You know, a backup quarterback
Speaker 1: in UH one quarterback twelve twelve team leagues at QB
Speaker 1: right behind Daniel Jones to Ben Roethlisberger and right before
Speaker 1: guys like Jamis Winston and Jared Goff. And that seems
Speaker 1: about right. I think it's too low because Fields is
Speaker 1: going to run and run well in this league, whether
Speaker 1: it's the Jets or the Niners. Yeah, he's gonna play immediately.
Speaker 1: Not we assume, we assume, we assume, but um, but yeah,
Speaker 1: when it comes to Dynasty, he pretty pretty undervalued here too.
Speaker 1: He's well, maybe not quarterback twelve that's up there. I mean,
Speaker 1: he's right behind Aaron Rodgers who was sixteen years this
Speaker 1: senior at this point. But on the long term upside,
Speaker 1: outside of Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields has the most I
Speaker 1: feel like outside of mac Jones and Trade Lands. So
Speaker 1: now for the forty, if it is the forty Niners,
Speaker 1: Jimmy Garoppolo still there, and I think, you know, there's
Speaker 1: a good chance Garoppolo starts the season for the Niners,
Speaker 1: whether they go Fields or they go mac Jones. Um.
Speaker 1: And so there may have to be you may just
Speaker 1: have to be patient on on that to play itself out.
Speaker 1: The presumption is that Garoppolo will lose the jobs sooner
Speaker 1: or later. But we are only one season removed from
Speaker 1: Garoppolo bringing the team to the Super Bowl, so it's
Speaker 1: not it's not a certainty that will happen. But we're
Speaker 1: considering what the forty Ninders paid to move up. Everybody
Speaker 1: assumes that they're gonna there. Ultimately will make the switch
Speaker 1: to whichever quarterback they end up drafting. From a re
Speaker 1: draft perspective, though, way better for Fields to good to
Speaker 1: the Niners than the Jets this year alone. Kyle Shanahan,
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, you know. Shanahan's I think he's just an
Speaker 1: offensive He's he is. He's an offensive wizard and can
Speaker 1: get production out of guys that have no business, uh
Speaker 1: getting that kind of production. So we've talked a lot
Speaker 1: about Justin Fields or Mac Jones. What I want to
Speaker 1: do is take a break, come back, and let's talk
Speaker 1: about Mac Jones. And you know, because he could go
Speaker 1: as high as three here to San Francisco, and then
Speaker 1: if he doesn't go here, he could actually fall quite
Speaker 1: a bit. So we'll talk through the the Fields Jones
Speaker 1: debate a little bit here and familiarize ourselves with Mac
Speaker 1: Jones when we come back. Welcome back Paul Charchie and
Speaker 1: Brian Johnson with you Fantasy Football Weekly. We're going through
Speaker 1: the rookie quarterbacks, getting a little more familiar deep dives
Speaker 1: with these guys. Let's talk about mac Jones. He does
Speaker 1: not have the sensational arm that we've seen with the
Speaker 1: first three guys that we've talked about, the eye popping
Speaker 1: arm traits, but super productive player, super poised and um
Speaker 1: and as NFL ready as anybody outside of Trevor Lawrence. Yeah,
Speaker 1: there's he might be the most polarizing prospect when it
Speaker 1: comes to right. There's a lot of love and a
Speaker 1: lot of hate. I agree with tion for mac Jones
Speaker 1: is good size, uh, six ft three, Uh, Like you said,
Speaker 1: not an e white arm, but a pretty good arm.
Speaker 1: His career passing grade versus the Blitz as these other
Speaker 1: draft prospects uh. In college, mac Jones had the highest
Speaker 1: grade against the Blitz point four according to Pro Football Focus,
Speaker 1: ahead of Trevor Lawrence at number two and Zach Wilson
Speaker 1: at three. His career passing GREDE against Power five teams
Speaker 1: was the highest among the quarterback prospects. He was first
Speaker 1: at ninety four point seven QP raiding against five teams
Speaker 1: against just above justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence. So yeah,
Speaker 1: it's it's some people are gonna hate the pick whatever
Speaker 1: team here if he ends up on quote unquote your team.
Speaker 1: Some people are gonna love it and some are gonna
Speaker 1: hate it. But this is really he seems to have
Speaker 1: all the tools to be a great pro quarterback. But
Speaker 1: it's gonna be, uh, show me what you got, Mac,
Speaker 1: But it's gonna be to the Jets or to the
Speaker 1: forts one would suspect. So for Mac Jones from a
Speaker 1: fantasy standpoint, he doesn't have nearly to me the sizzle
Speaker 1: that these other guys do because they is not good.
Speaker 1: You know, he said he's not gonna have the rushing
Speaker 1: that you're gonna get out of tray lance or justin fields,
Speaker 1: or even some of the scrambling ability for for Zach
Speaker 1: Wilson Um. But you know, he is a good accurate passer.
Speaker 1: I just don't think he's going to have the bananas upside.
Speaker 1: He's gonna feel like his upside is like what Philip
Speaker 1: Rivers gave us over the course of his career. Yeah,
Speaker 1: in redrafts, you're you're not drafting him. He might be
Speaker 1: a waiver wide we have wire pick up later on
Speaker 1: in the year named Dynasty. You're not drafting him as
Speaker 1: a with QB one upside in a super flex league,
Speaker 1: which is what we play primarily he's got QB two
Speaker 1: upsideer shirt like you said of Philip Rivers, maybe Matt Stafford. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's a good way to be cursed by Detroit for
Speaker 1: the majority of his career. But that's kind of his ceiling.
Speaker 1: But not not a mahomes like feeling. Like you said,
Speaker 1: he doesn't have the mobility to be a Josh Allen
Speaker 1: or Lamar Jackson type prospect. He all right, let's go
Speaker 1: to our fifth quarterback that we're gonna break down, and
Speaker 1: that's Tray Lance. Lance should go fourth or fifth among quarterbacks,
Speaker 1: and there's a chance that the top five picks of
Speaker 1: this draft will be quarterbacks. Now in the NFL, there's
Speaker 1: never been more than the top three picks have never been.
Speaker 1: There's never been more than three quarterbacks taken in the
Speaker 1: first three picks. So that's what I'm trying to I
Speaker 1: think what I'm trying to say, there's never been four
Speaker 1: in a row, and there's never been five in a row.
Speaker 1: There could be all five. If Atlanta either moves their
Speaker 1: pick or takes quarterback, they should take quarter um and
Speaker 1: then Cincinnati at five might deal their pick because somebody
Speaker 1: want might want mac Jones, especially if mac Jones goes
Speaker 1: three to San Francisco, as you mentioned, superpolarized, it goes
Speaker 1: so San Francisco loves him and they take him at three.
Speaker 1: That pushes Justin Fields and Trey Lance down to four
Speaker 1: and five. And how somebody's gonna pay Cincinnati to move
Speaker 1: up to that spot you mentioned the I think the
Speaker 1: most obvious candidates Carolina and Denver, but don't forget Philadelphia
Speaker 1: doesn't seem totally settled at Jay with Jalen Hurts, and
Speaker 1: they may end up making a move because they don't
Speaker 1: have far to go. And then there's of course New
Speaker 1: England they need a quarterback. Uh So those are all
Speaker 1: some some trade possibilities up to four or five for
Speaker 1: Atlanta or Cincinnati, and again especially if mac Jones goes
Speaker 1: a pick three. So let's talk about Trey Lance. Fascinating
Speaker 1: prospect um who has as much upside as anybody in
Speaker 1: this entire draft, including Trevor Lawrence. He is an incredible
Speaker 1: athlete with all the raw skills to be an elite
Speaker 1: quarterback in the NFL if everything breaks his way out
Speaker 1: of North Dakota State, So Dakota State lesser competition absolutely
Speaker 1: at the highest, which still people are gonna hold that
Speaker 1: against him. People are gonna hold the failures of Carson
Speaker 1: Wentz against him for sure, you know, right or wrong.
Speaker 1: And um amazing arm strength he throws sixty plus yards.
Speaker 1: Uh frequently strongest arm in this rookie class. And there's
Speaker 1: a rookie class loaded with arm talent. He's got the
Speaker 1: strongest arm here. He had a massive A dot average
Speaker 1: depth of target of eleven and a half yards. That
Speaker 1: is massive. So when Trey Lance through the ball, he through,
Speaker 1: he threw down field. Remarkable running ability for Tray Lance
Speaker 1: as well. Now, if people are gonna give Lance, you know,
Speaker 1: give him a hard time about Carson Wentz, I want
Speaker 1: him to think a little further back to Steve Air
Speaker 1: McNair out of Elkhorn State, another small I only don't
Speaker 1: call it D two anymore of it. Back then it
Speaker 1: was D two. So if you're gonna compare fields to
Speaker 1: uh sorry Lance too, uh wins, also compare him to
Speaker 1: McNair because the smaller schools can can you can? You
Speaker 1: can do it now, Tray Lances running ability is really special.
Speaker 1: He now he weighs two pounds. He's a big guy. Um,
Speaker 1: not quite linebacker big, but he is a big dude.
Speaker 1: His running reminds me of Cam Newton's running. You know,
Speaker 1: a guy his size shouldn't be as fast as he is.
Speaker 1: He is fast, and he's got some wiggle with his running.
Speaker 1: He is going to be a fantasy powerhouse if he can,
Speaker 1: if he can get, if he can get the passing
Speaker 1: to a point where he stays on the field. Is
Speaker 1: a good passer. Tray Lance never lost a game as
Speaker 1: a starter he had. He makes very few bad decisions
Speaker 1: and that's awfully rare for a young kid. Now, maybe
Speaker 1: part of that is and this is you know, you
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier small school, small school defenses, so maybe it
Speaker 1: wasn't challenged that way, and he will make more mistakes
Speaker 1: obviously at the next level. The only average eighteen dropbacks
Speaker 1: per game. That's not a lot. Now it's because nds
Speaker 1: US got a run is a run heavy program and
Speaker 1: because he ran a lot, so they didn't ask him
Speaker 1: to pass all that often, and so we haven't seen
Speaker 1: a ton of his passing. The biggest issue though, accuracy.
Speaker 1: His his accuracy is fair, and that's something that doesn't
Speaker 1: always get better, Brian, sometimes it does. Josh Allen's accuracy
Speaker 1: was awful, and it got way better as he got older,
Speaker 1: so it can get better. Um, his mechanics are going
Speaker 1: to be passing. Mechanics are gonna need to help as well.
Speaker 1: I just think that the perfect spot for Trey Lance
Speaker 1: is Atlanta, where he learns and he can spend at
Speaker 1: least a year on the bench and work out the
Speaker 1: negatives that we've talked about with his game. I agree, Yeah,
Speaker 1: he's not. He's probably the rawest of the Big five
Speaker 1: quarterback prospects, but might have the highest ceiling. He might.
Speaker 1: I think he does have the highest ceiling if everything
Speaker 1: breaks right for him. So really really excited to see
Speaker 1: what Trey Lance ends up doing at the next level.
Speaker 1: From I think you should get drafted. Depends a lot
Speaker 1: on where he goes. Again. Ideally is a backup, But
Speaker 1: if he's not a backup and he's pressed into service
Speaker 1: in his first year, he's absolutely draft old because the
Speaker 1: running ability he's going to give you better runner than
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts I think. And Jalen Hurts was a fantasy
Speaker 1: startable quarterback for his three or four games at the
Speaker 1: end of the year. Yeah, and in Lance is he's
Speaker 1: going slightly ahead of Mac Jones and dynasty formats behind
Speaker 1: him in redraft. He's the one quarterback where you're not
Speaker 1: You don't expect much from Lance this year, but his
Speaker 1: long term prospects really good, way more into really good.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about my, uh my, my most
Speaker 1: intriguing quarterback in this draft, and I think it's Davis
Speaker 1: Mills from Stanford. So he's he's grading out. People think
Speaker 1: he's gonna go roughly third round, but quarterbacks, some team
Speaker 1: always needs a quarterback and ends up taking him early.
Speaker 1: But watch out for Pittsburgh into the second round. All right. Um,
Speaker 1: they have to get a contingency plan for next year
Speaker 1: in place, and Davis Mills might be that guy. I
Speaker 1: think I'm calling my shot right now, Pittsburgh's selection end
Speaker 1: of the second round, Davis Mills, I get it right.
Speaker 1: It's a there'll be some peacocking on this show. If
Speaker 1: I do get it right, can take on this. No,
Speaker 1: I don't think it's like peacock on your this is
Speaker 1: NBA talk. You're Anthony Edwards Rookie of the Year prediction
Speaker 1: from from early February when he was twenty to one.
Speaker 1: That was a good one. Um, so here's the deal.
Speaker 1: On Davis Mills from Stanford. He's only played eleven games
Speaker 1: due to injuries and COVID, and he came out of
Speaker 1: high school rated as a five star recruit by like
Speaker 1: every service. They all loved it. And he's like, he's
Speaker 1: like six four, He's like your prototype size, prototype size.
Speaker 1: Everybody wanted him. He threw for six thousand yards in
Speaker 1: high school and he scored eighty nine touchdowns in high
Speaker 1: school between passing and running. Uh, that's Davis Mills. I
Speaker 1: can't even do that per game, Matt. That's like, yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't know. Uh, super super poised in the pocket.
Speaker 1: He really looks comfortable. He looks like he looks like
Speaker 1: he's played there for even though he only the eleven starts.
Speaker 1: You look at him, he does not look at any
Speaker 1: way skittish about that role. He's got good arm strength.
Speaker 1: It's not a cannon. Davis Mills is not, you know,
Speaker 1: not one of the other quarterbacks we talked about, like
Speaker 1: Zach Wilson and Trey Lance that way. But he has
Speaker 1: good arm strength, highly accurate passer to all parts of
Speaker 1: the field. And I love when you can get that
Speaker 1: combination of of good arm strength and high accuracy man,
Speaker 1: that's the that is a real indicator of NFL success potential.
Speaker 1: He's a decisive passer with quick release and I like
Speaker 1: that about him as well. Um, not somebody's gonna be
Speaker 1: you know, sitting in the pocket waiting too long, absorbing
Speaker 1: sacks or winding up with a windmill throw and then
Speaker 1: you know, getting sacked halfway through the release. There are
Speaker 1: some issues, of course for players only start eleven issues.
Speaker 1: He needs to set his feet for maximum accuracy. He's
Speaker 1: making he does, has made mental mistakes, and he's had
Speaker 1: bad throws, and he has basically no mobility. Um, So,
Speaker 1: Davis Mills, I think a very interesting player. And you
Speaker 1: know Ben Roethlisberger hasn't had any real mobility for most
Speaker 1: of his career either. You know, the Steelers know how
Speaker 1: to work how to work around a quarterback who doesn't
Speaker 1: bring that to the table. So Davis Mills, Yeah, I
Speaker 1: like intriguing. Yeah, the top five the guys we discussed before,
Speaker 1: Davis Mills are pretty much setting stone. But the number
Speaker 1: six is up in the air. But I'm with you
Speaker 1: on team Mills QB. Davis Mills, Um, it'll be fascinating
Speaker 1: to see where he goes and in the right landing spot.
Speaker 1: I think he's he's gonna be a nice dark horse
Speaker 1: for sleepers. Uh for for dynasty empire leagues, or you
Speaker 1: just if you can sit on a guy, develop them,
Speaker 1: wait a year or two. Uh, Davis Mills, maybe your player.
Speaker 1: Thanks Brian spun fun breaking down quarterbacks next week. I
Speaker 1: believe we're going to do running backs next week. We'll
Speaker 1: find out for sure, but I believe we're gonna be
Speaker 1: running backs, and it is a It's a crowded running
Speaker 1: back crop. Matt starting in like second third round. There's
Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of good running backs you are
Speaker 1: gonna drop. Thankfully, a few of these guys didn't declare
Speaker 1: last year. They could have in a really thin class.
Speaker 1: But it's pretty meaty, so it is very fun to
Speaker 1: talk about. Can't wait for that. Thank you for joining us.
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