1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,160 Speaker 1: Who you put your trust in matters. Investors have put 2 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: their trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:12,240 Speaker 1: of four trillion dollars. Why learn more and find your 4 00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 1: independent advisor dot com. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 5 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you 6 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 7 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and 8 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:49,640 Speaker 1: of course, on the Bloomberg Good Morning David Gura with 9 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 1: Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance from Bloomberg Radio. It's Friday, 10 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 1: Finally Friday, Veterans Day, eleventh of November, the day after 11 00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 1: Mr Trump went to Washington a meeting between the President 12 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 1: and the President elect. A meeting that was scheduled to 13 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 1: last ten minutes went on for ninety and the Dow 14 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,320 Speaker 1: hit records is. Donald Trump made his way down Pennsylvania 15 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 1: Avenue up Capitol Hill, where lunch was served. Donald Trump 16 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:14,039 Speaker 1: and the next Vice president broke bread with Paul Ryan 17 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 1: from the House Speaker's balcony. They surveyed the city and 18 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:19,959 Speaker 1: then they hammered out plans with Majority leader Mitch McConnell, 19 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: and all the while the president elect transition team worked 20 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,039 Speaker 1: to allay uncertainty new reports of who's being considered for 21 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:28,480 Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary David Malpass reportedly heading up the search for 22 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:31,319 Speaker 1: the economic team, Tom Barrack reportedly handling plans for the 23 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 1: next inauguration, and a post on Great Again dot gov 24 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 1: the transition team's website. The closest closest thing to a 25 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 1: policy pronouncement we've gotten since election day that's still to 26 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 1: be named Financial Services Policy Implementation Team. Quote. We'll be 27 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 1: working to dismantle the Dot Frank Act and replace it 28 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 1: with new policies to encourage growth and job David, But 29 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 1: I'm glad you did that introduction, and may we do 30 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 1: a Friday shoutout to our team, please do that. We 31 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 1: had both Mr mal Pass and Mr in this week 32 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: to give perspective before they got that where they got 33 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 1: that we don't do this. I mean, David does all 34 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:08,120 Speaker 1: the work. I just sort of show up and have 35 00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 1: a cup of coffeens. But our team just killed it 36 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 1: this week. David absolutely just killed The guests affiliated with 37 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,639 Speaker 1: both campaigns and the outside perspective as well has just 38 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 1: been tremendous all through the week term it is two 39 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 1: thousand sixteen, the year of the improbable. According to our 40 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:28,160 Speaker 1: first guest, know Ferguson, renowned award winning historian, senior fellow 41 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 1: at the Hoover Institution at Stanford, kind enough to join 42 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 1: us today from London. Good to have you with us. 43 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:35,359 Speaker 1: Donald Trump saying that this was going to be Brexit 44 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 1: times ten a couple of days out. Now give your 45 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,799 Speaker 1: reaction to what we've seen here, and if the context 46 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:44,359 Speaker 1: it give us, if that assessment was valid. Well, unlike 47 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:47,799 Speaker 1: the vast majority of of people who were writing and 48 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 1: talking about the selection, I took that seriously and that 49 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 1: that was I think because I was suffering from post 50 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 1: Brexit traumatic stress disorder, having been on the wrong side 51 00:02:57,440 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 1: of the Brexit campaign in the UK uh and having 52 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:06,679 Speaker 1: working up to the most almighty shock, I recognized very 53 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 1: familiar symptoms in the United States in the run up 54 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:12,959 Speaker 1: to the election, and I said in my column and 55 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:16,080 Speaker 1: The Boston Globe on Monday that I thought Trump was 56 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 1: likely to prove the pundits wrong by winning from very 57 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:23,800 Speaker 1: many of the same reasons that that breaks. It happened. 58 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:27,239 Speaker 1: It's it's an interesting thing populism because although it's quite 59 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 1: nationalistic in its tone, it's kind of a global phenomenon 60 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:32,960 Speaker 1: that you see in multiple countries right now, and it's 61 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 1: a backlash against globalization in some ways, because obviously Trump 62 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 1: was playing the cards of protectionism, talking about tariffs, restricting immigration. 63 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 1: He was beating up on the corrupt political establishment that 64 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 1: he's clearly eager to distance himself from. But I think 65 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 1: the other interesting thing about populism is it's cultural dimension. 66 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:59,680 Speaker 1: It is a backlash against political correctness, feminism, it's a 67 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 1: back lash against affirmative action, black lives matter, it's a 68 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 1: it's a backlash against the whole range of cultural and 69 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 1: social things, which I think explains it's it's potency. It 70 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: was a wonderful column which you alluded to Thomas Wolfe 71 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 1: talking about the every four year confluence of the election 72 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 1: in the World Series. You called Donald Trump the Maverick picture. 73 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 1: How did he pitch a perfect game? Yeah? I love 74 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:25,479 Speaker 1: that passage. When I came across it. I'm a Thomas 75 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 1: wolf enthusiast, and I remembered this passage where he says, 76 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 1: there's something about the way Americans watched the World Series 77 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 1: and watch the the presidential election. That's similar. They kind 78 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:41,840 Speaker 1: of love getting into the contest, but at the end 79 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:45,040 Speaker 1: of it, they kind of peacefully leave, as it were 80 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 1: at the stadium. And I think on the whole, that 81 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 1: is how Americans are reacting to Trump's victory, just as 82 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 1: they reacted to the Chicago Cubs victory. It's only a 83 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 1: tiny minority of people who are engaging in these ludicrous protests. 84 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:01,239 Speaker 1: So I think the analogy is a good one because 85 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:04,760 Speaker 1: what Trump did, apart from sticking at it. Remember, the 86 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 1: stamina was the thing that gave the Cubs of the 87 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 1: World Series. They just hung on in there to the 88 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 1: very last inning. They never gave up, and Trump never 89 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 1: gave up. I was impressed by his stamina. He always 90 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 1: seemed relaxed on the stump. He never really lost his 91 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 1: his self confidence in on the campaign trail. The only 92 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 1: times I thought he really was losing it, we're in 93 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 1: the three debates with Hillary Clinton, and I prematurely wrote 94 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:30,839 Speaker 1: him off after Debate three, and then realized that actually, 95 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:34,280 Speaker 1: two people in Middle America, these debates had had counted 96 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 1: for almost nothing because they were much more interested in 97 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 1: you guessed at the World Series. Ferguson with us and 98 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:42,719 Speaker 1: Villan Bouder to come on here in a moment, Professor Ferguson, 99 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 1: I do want to move forward to the forming of 100 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 1: a cabinet. We talked of this earlier. You're Wonderful one volume. 101 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 1: Dr Kissinger, where he was, he was known, and he 102 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:59,039 Speaker 1: was a celebrity. But it was unimaginable that a Rockefeller 103 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 1: republic and or adviser, I should say, would join the 104 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 1: gentleman from Woodrior, California. Help me here with cabinet formation 105 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 1: from Mr Trump in the lessons you learned in researching 106 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 1: Henry Kissinger, Well, I think one lesson, certainly from night 107 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:22,839 Speaker 1: is that you don't get a job in the administration 108 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:26,280 Speaker 1: just because you were a faithful servant on the campaign trail. 109 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:29,719 Speaker 1: And many people are, i think, making the erroneous assumption 110 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:31,839 Speaker 1: that Donald Trump is simply going to hand out the 111 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:34,479 Speaker 1: big jobs to the people who were with him through 112 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 1: thick and thin. I'm not sure that's necessarily the case, 113 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:39,920 Speaker 1: and indeed, I think it would be a mistake because 114 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:42,600 Speaker 1: he has the opportunity to do what Richard Nixon did 115 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 1: in sixty eight, which is to reach out to his opponents. 116 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:51,040 Speaker 1: Kissinger had repeatedly criticized Nixon. He was a Rockefeller loyalist. 117 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 1: He'd been on Rockefeller's side through three unsuccessful bids for 118 00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:59,600 Speaker 1: the Republican nomination, and he was astonished when Nixon offered 119 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:02,039 Speaker 1: him the bob of National Security Advisor. In fact, he 120 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:04,360 Speaker 1: was so surprised he didn't realize he'd been offered the job. 121 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:06,600 Speaker 1: He went to Rockefeller and said, what should I do? 122 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 1: And Rockefeller said, are you crazy? It's the President of 123 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 1: the United States who's or the President elect of the 124 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: United States who has just offered you this job. You 125 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 1: have to serve. And I think Trump should play that 126 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 1: card in order to make sure that he is the 127 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 1: strongest possible team on national security and on economic policy. 128 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:25,360 Speaker 1: Those are the things by which he is going to 129 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 1: be judged, and I think if he relies only on 130 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 1: Rudy Giuliani, Chris Christie new ging Rich and so forth, 131 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 1: then I don't think the team, with all due respect 132 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 1: to those gentlemen, will be strong enough. Remember, it's a 133 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: huge challenge if you're a political outsider who's antagonized large 134 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:48,080 Speaker 1: sections of the Republican Party to staff an administration. Trump's 135 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 1: biggest challenge right now will be persuading people that he 136 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 1: is going to be a respectable president, somebody that they 137 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 1: will be proud to have worked for. I think he's 138 00:07:57,400 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 1: going to be able to do it, but he should 139 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 1: take full opportunity, busy of this chance to reach out 140 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 1: to people who criticized him, and I've seen him do that. 141 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 1: I've actually been very struck by his magnanimous tone, the 142 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 1: almost humble way in which he interacted with President Obama. 143 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 1: I'm I'm relatively optimistic that the administration that emerges in 144 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 1: the coming days will be a lot more mainstream, uh 145 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 1: than the critics of the Trump campaign were predicting. There 146 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 1: was this never Trump letter. There were letters from emissions 147 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 1: and foreign policy experts and did you signed it as well? How? How? 148 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 1: How never is never here? When you talk to folks 149 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:40,080 Speaker 1: who have signed that letter, you talked about bringing opponents 150 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:42,719 Speaker 1: on on board? Here one one time opponents on board? Here? 151 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:44,600 Speaker 1: Are they willing to bend? Are they willing to to 152 00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:46,840 Speaker 1: backtrack on that? Would they be willing to serve in 153 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: a Donald Trump administration? Well? I can't speak for other 154 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 1: signatories of that letter. UM. I do recollect a recent 155 00:08:55,400 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 1: conversation I had with some eminence military n and they 156 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 1: were men who had distanced themselves or at least declined 157 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 1: to be involved in the Trump campaign, but their view 158 00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:15,960 Speaker 1: was that if called upon to serve by our president 159 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 1: elect Trump, that was a different thing. Because when the 160 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 1: President of the United States calls on you to serve, 161 00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: you don't really have a choice. It's your duty. And 162 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 1: I suspect that there will be people civilians with experience 163 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:32,959 Speaker 1: of government who will take the same view that the 164 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 1: never Trump letter back in March reflected. I think grave 165 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:40,959 Speaker 1: concern on the part of many foreign policy experts that 166 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 1: things that Trump was saying, we're just crazy, dangerous and response. 167 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 1: So let's do this. Let's come back and continue with 168 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:53,079 Speaker 1: Professor Ferguson, Professor Powder will join us in a moment worldwide, 169 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:56,520 Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg, David gerin time, keen with us, Neil Ferguson, 170 00:09:56,640 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 1: and we just can continue on here after the most 171 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:02,559 Speaker 1: historic week. But you know, I really think for our 172 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 1: audience worldwide, we need to drive forward to the winter 173 00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 1: in the spring of Europe. We have seen Brexit. You 174 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 1: have been remarkably open and naked about how you got 175 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:18,040 Speaker 1: it wrong. We have seen the history of this America 176 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:23,559 Speaker 1: and now thinkers staggered Italy, they staggered to France. I 177 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:25,400 Speaker 1: don't know where else they stagger. I can't get up 178 00:10:25,480 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 1: with the Netherlands. Help us here, neil is free. Zakaria 179 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 1: beautifully put in foreign affairs with a cultural revolution of 180 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 1: our populism. Well, I'm not sure cultural revolutions quite the 181 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 1: right analogy. That was Mao's attempt to turn China's society 182 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:51,400 Speaker 1: upside down by unleashing the youth against uh, the establishment. 183 00:10:51,880 --> 00:10:55,280 Speaker 1: This is something different because, of course, young voters were 184 00:10:55,360 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 1: decisively defeated in both breaks Is and the US election. Uh. 185 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 1: You know that the trouble about most of the instant 186 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 1: after game analysis is that it misses key points. By emphasizing, 187 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 1: for example, the role of of race in the election, 188 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 1: a lot of commentators are missing the importance of class. 189 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:20,960 Speaker 1: They're also missing the importance of age. The thing that 190 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 1: didn't matter too much, by the way, was gender. It 191 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:25,320 Speaker 1: didn't really matter that Hillary Clinton was a woman, because 192 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 1: in fact she didn't win a majority of white female votes, 193 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 1: but age mattered. In Europe, you have similar phenomena where 194 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 1: older voters, more working class voters, male voters are looking 195 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:46,439 Speaker 1: at the world of globalization and multiculturalism and saying enough already. 196 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 1: They have had enough of large scale migration, they have 197 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 1: had enough of free trade, they have had enough of 198 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:56,199 Speaker 1: very free capital flows so on economics. They are ready 199 00:11:56,240 --> 00:12:00,200 Speaker 1: for a backlash against globalization. At the same time, all 200 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 1: over the Northern hemisphere they have had enough with multiculturalism. 201 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 1: They're actually rather sick of feminism. There's a backlash going 202 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 1: on here that is also cultural, but it's not a 203 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 1: cultural revolution of the sort we saw in China in 204 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 1: the nineties, sixties and seventies. This is actually a cultural 205 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 1: revolution by older demographics against the fashions that appeal to 206 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 1: the young. The lunacies that you see on American campuses 207 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 1: these days that trigger warnings and safe havens, strike the 208 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 1: people in main street in Middle America and their equivalents 209 00:12:30,840 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 1: in Europe, but simply bonkers. And I think that's a 210 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:37,359 Speaker 1: very important part of what's going on in the populist 211 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 1: wave we're seeing. It's a it's a populist ties and 212 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:43,440 Speaker 1: in each country you have a different wave. Noticed I 213 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 1: said Northern Hemisphere, didn't I that's because populism is a 214 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 1: spent force in the Southern hemisphere, especially in Latin America, 215 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 1: where it's been tried and found not to work. A 216 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 1: few people I can think of have wrestled with, reckoned 217 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 1: with globalization as much as you have. What does globalization 218 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:04,439 Speaker 1: look like after January seventeen? Is it? Is it notionally different? 219 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,360 Speaker 1: After what we've seen in the UK, what we've seen 220 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 1: here in the U S. Well, globalization has been in 221 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 1: measurable declined since the financial crisis. I mean, if you 222 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 1: just look at volumes of trade, if you look at 223 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:20,959 Speaker 1: capital flows, it really is it's past, it's its peak. 224 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 1: And the question I guess we have to ask is 225 00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:27,560 Speaker 1: just how much deglobalization is they're going to be? In 226 00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 1: other words, are we going to see a return to protectionism? 227 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 1: Is Trump serious about tariffs some Chinese imports? How much 228 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 1: is immigration going to be restricted? Those are the questions 229 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:41,680 Speaker 1: we need to ask. And I think it's helpful here 230 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:44,000 Speaker 1: to know some history. The world is full of people 231 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,440 Speaker 1: who only seem to know one period of history, and 232 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:49,560 Speaker 1: it's the nineteen thirties. So whatever happens, it's the nineteen thirties. 233 00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:52,320 Speaker 1: They see a dictator, it's the nineteen thirties. There's stock 234 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 1: market crash, it's the nineteen thirties. And this is not 235 00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 1: the nineteen thirties. In the nineteen thirties, unemployment rates got 236 00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:01,079 Speaker 1: up into the twenty percent to thirty percent range and 237 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:05,720 Speaker 1: stayed there for years. We have practically full employment in 238 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 1: the United States, which makes it kind of odd to 239 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:12,680 Speaker 1: talk about massive infrastructure investment. But hey, European economies have 240 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 1: recovered from the crisis much more slowly. But the only 241 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 1: country that really had a great depression type experience was Greece. 242 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 1: Ain't no great depression going on in Germany, I can 243 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 1: assure you. So let's stop drawing silly analogies with the 244 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 1: nineteen thirties. Let's stop comparing the populace to Hitler and Mussolini. Please, 245 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 1: I beg you don't do it, because it's the wrong analogy. 246 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: The right analogy is with the last time globalization. Here 247 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 1: to speed bump, which was in the late nineteenth century 248 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 1: after the seventy three financial crisis, when all over the 249 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 1: Northern hemisphere, populist movements sprang up that were against free 250 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 1: trade and were against free migration, and they achieved quite 251 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 1: a lot. They raised tariffs in the United States, they 252 00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 1: restricted immigration pretty drastically. Think of the eight two Exclusion Act, 253 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 1: which ended Chinese immigration to the United States, and the 254 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 1: populist wave lasted for somewhere in the region of ten 255 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 1: or twenty years, and then it gave way to a 256 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 1: progressive wave. And I think that's a much more illuminating analogy. 257 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 1: I've said this ad nauseum. I want to say it 258 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:14,760 Speaker 1: to your listeners. Donald Trump is not a fascist. He 259 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 1: is a populist. Fascists invade countries, they do war. Populists 260 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:22,760 Speaker 1: do drug wars. They build walls, that's what they do. 261 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 1: We are out of time, you know. Ferguson, thank you 262 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 1: so much, most generous of you this morning to be 263 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 1: with us from our London studios. David Gern, Tom Keane 264 00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 1: a Friday to regroup and get to the weekend into 265 00:15:34,920 --> 00:15:50,680 Speaker 1: Monday morning. Stay with us worldwide. This is Bloomberg. Can 266 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 1: we say, David, thank you to our guests led by 267 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 1: Professor for repeated visits and lengthy visits. They have things 268 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 1: to do during the more not really and we're who 269 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:08,040 Speaker 1: You're honored the villa here, David, why don't you start 270 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 1: with the lan powder this morning? Well, let me get 271 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 1: your reaction. First of all, we were talking a few 272 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:14,920 Speaker 1: days ago ahead of this election and the scenarios that 273 00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 1: most were predicting here were different from the one that 274 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 1: we we saw coming to play on on Tuesday night. 275 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 1: Your reaction here to to what we've seen, maybe not 276 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 1: from the political perspective, but well, in addition to UH 277 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 1: Trump as president, the Republicans have control of both so 278 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 1: they will be able, they should be able to pass 279 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 1: some kind of stimulus fiscal stimulus at some point, UH 280 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 1: if you'll have the mind effects, ganging effects, and hopefully 281 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 1: if it's targeted well, will help attential output a bit 282 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 1: as well. This means higher interest rates uh uput sloping 283 00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 1: Yold curve effects on equity and principle and vegas because 284 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 1: the fiscal stimulages in the future, so brates go up, 285 00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 1: but of course profits go up in the future as well, 286 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 1: so the markets have decided that the stimulus outweighs the 287 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:07,040 Speaker 1: rate effects, so the stock market has gone whoop. See 288 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:13,119 Speaker 1: also partly driven by expectation of deregulation in key industries 289 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:18,440 Speaker 1: like energy, environmental angle here and financial sector and possibly 290 00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:21,720 Speaker 1: some others. So all that seems to be drowning out 291 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 1: the uncertainty that we're still feeling at the moment about 292 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 1: both the the team and the politics which is negative 293 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:35,200 Speaker 1: for for demand, and of course the fear of protectionism, 294 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:40,240 Speaker 1: trade wars, and aggressive and immigrant policies which are all negatives. 295 00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:43,879 Speaker 1: But no doubt that on balance the future looks higher 296 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 1: interest uh so, higher inflationary pressures and most likely also 297 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:53,439 Speaker 1: higher levels of GP grows in the short run because 298 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:56,679 Speaker 1: of the anticipated fiscal stimulus if and when it happens. 299 00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:59,480 Speaker 1: You're navigating that ambiguity. Investors are navigating at the Fed 300 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:02,639 Speaker 1: Reserve navigating as well as as as you said, what 301 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:05,880 Speaker 1: does this mean for for the rate hike timetable here 302 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,439 Speaker 1: as policymakers wait to see what in fact will come 303 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 1: out of Capitol Hill, I don't think it make most difference. UM. 304 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 1: Clearly UM. There is addition uncertainty, which is the only 305 00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:20,000 Speaker 1: thing that we observe immediately. But there also is the 306 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 1: expectation that this is not enough to send the economy 307 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 1: into a downturn, and we can anticipate the fiscal stimulus 308 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 1: coming online beginning with the tax cut sometime next year, 309 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:37,120 Speaker 1: followed by UM infrastructure spending. So I think the fact 310 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:38,840 Speaker 1: will just go ahead and do what it was planning 311 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:41,200 Speaker 1: to do and raising in December and a couple more 312 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:45,240 Speaker 1: times next year or more if the fiscal stimulus should 313 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,359 Speaker 1: be earlier and larger than expected. The scize matter, this 314 00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:52,720 Speaker 1: composition matter when it comes to that infrastructure package. Absolutely um. 315 00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:56,719 Speaker 1: The size of course matter because that's a demand effect immediately. 316 00:18:57,520 --> 00:18:59,719 Speaker 1: Timing also matters. I mean that I don't know how 317 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 1: many shop of any projects there are, and the composition 318 00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 1: was well, it's possible to select infrastructure project, especially in 319 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 1: the country that has been staffed the infrastructure investment for 320 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 1: the last forty years and has the worst infrastructure in 321 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:16,360 Speaker 1: the advanced economy. The returns can be enormous and they 322 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:19,399 Speaker 1: could pay for themselves unfortuately. In practice, a lot of 323 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:22,920 Speaker 1: infrastructure is wasted because it has to go through political filters. 324 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:25,399 Speaker 1: It's often done at the state and local level with 325 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:28,159 Speaker 1: federal files. There is another good news. I got a 326 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:32,560 Speaker 1: memo from John Tucker about two am this morning. He said, 327 00:19:32,560 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 1: thrilled the villain powders on time. Can you be sure 328 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:40,480 Speaker 1: to expand further your Hicksie and SLM discussion of last week? Yeah, 329 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:45,159 Speaker 1: because I didn't think enough people were listening. One of 330 00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:48,359 Speaker 1: the high points last week with Professor Powder was to 331 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:52,600 Speaker 1: look at the geometry. The professionals like Mr Bowder look 332 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:57,000 Speaker 1: at two try to describe the linkage of policy with 333 00:19:57,160 --> 00:20:02,520 Speaker 1: his economics professor powder to and slate. President elect Trump 334 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 1: is going to an effect the stimulus, some would, let say, 335 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 1: much like what President elect Clinton would have done and 336 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 1: shift the I S curve to the right in a 337 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:17,960 Speaker 1: desperate move for greater economic growth and greater output. When 338 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:21,760 Speaker 1: that occurs, the I S curve moves and the other curve, 339 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 1: the money curve, the L M curve move and things happen. 340 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:30,720 Speaker 1: And as you know, there's a massive uncertainty and ambiguity 341 00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 1: to what will happen down the road. What does he 342 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 1: need to do to do stimulus and get us to 343 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 1: a better outcome to three and four years down the road? 344 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:51,679 Speaker 1: John Tucker nodding, well, from a capacitilization perspective, only a 345 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:55,880 Speaker 1: modest stimulus best is needed in the US. Unlike all 346 00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:57,880 Speaker 1: the parts of the world, the US is very near 347 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:03,640 Speaker 1: full employment and uh for capacitilization, there's still some room. 348 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 1: But a modest and intelligently designed fiscal stimulus with the 349 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,960 Speaker 1: tax cuts targeted and those actually like it is spended. 350 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 1: It means low income groups, which is also distribution ly, 351 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 1: I think more attractive, and then infrastructure spending in one 352 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 1: of the many areas where the US needs its capacity 353 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 1: to become stronger. But of course potential output grows labor 354 00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:34,840 Speaker 1: fourth grows proactivity growth that is very unlikely to be 355 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:40,400 Speaker 1: affected in a material way unless in addition to much 356 00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:44,200 Speaker 1: larger increase in infrastructure spending, which could even be uh 357 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:48,439 Speaker 1: tax finance. Because it's potential output we're looking at. Um, 358 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 1: there has to be an improvement in the quality of 359 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:55,520 Speaker 1: labor and in in private cap First. Krugman, who has 360 00:21:55,600 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 1: written numerous times on John Hicks in a model nine, 361 00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,800 Speaker 1: would suggest go back to basic models. You and others 362 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 1: have said the world's changed. If the world has changed, 363 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:13,240 Speaker 1: for President elect Trump, how does he take Washington policy 364 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 1: and make for a better America When, as you mentioned, 365 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 1: productivity is not there. Um the demand management it is 366 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:27,440 Speaker 1: not the primary concerns for the US economy. Right. Yes, 367 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 1: we can do as a bit of a fiscal stimulus 368 00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 1: multi policy basically from a bit but from a demand perspective, 369 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 1: From a supply perspective, we need a lot of infrastructure spending. 370 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 1: We need intelligence, taxual structuring, we need intelligence design, de regulation, 371 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:46,720 Speaker 1: and we need an open immigration policy that brings the 372 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:52,520 Speaker 1: talent that America cannot produce in time domestically available. And 373 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:56,119 Speaker 1: we need of course great emphasis and education occasional training. 374 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 1: These are also by side measures. They take time and 375 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:03,880 Speaker 1: they don't come out of you across the board. Price 376 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 1: of this in FOLKUS has been a lot of great 377 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 1: research on this recently. An Ambrose Evans Bridget as usual, 378 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 1: summed it up beautifully yesterday in the Telegraph. The outcome 379 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,359 Speaker 1: of this has to be strong dollar. Right when you 380 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 1: talk to Steve Englander, I'm sorry, it's a dollar up 381 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 1: is a dollar big, which diminishes the advantages the Republicans 382 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:29,119 Speaker 1: could give us. Inevitably, when you have a fiscal stimulus 383 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:34,440 Speaker 1: which puts up for pressure on capacitalization and on inflation, 384 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 1: if you also allow them for the likely response of 385 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 1: the Fed to this, the higher rate, you're going to 386 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,239 Speaker 1: get stronger dollar out of that. And that is one 387 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:48,359 Speaker 1: of the ways in which actual demand is reconciled with 388 00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:54,120 Speaker 1: limited potential output right, because it will discourage external demand 389 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:56,960 Speaker 1: through the through the stans of the dollar, which will 390 00:23:57,000 --> 00:24:01,159 Speaker 1: offset a part of the fiscal statements. That's away economies 391 00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:05,359 Speaker 1: equilibrate um. If there was massive unemployment in the US 392 00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:09,560 Speaker 1: very low compaculilization, then you could have a serious stimulus 393 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:14,680 Speaker 1: without necessarily any any crowding because the FED would not respond, 394 00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:18,200 Speaker 1: and effect on long term rates would also be momodels 395 00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 1: on the exchange trade. But we're not there. The US 396 00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:23,600 Speaker 1: is not an economy that suffers from a big changent 397 00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:26,760 Speaker 1: problem at the moment. It suffers from a lousy supply side. 398 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 1: When you think about in forecast would effect a stimulus 399 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:33,479 Speaker 1: package like this might have. How do you weigh what 400 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:35,800 Speaker 1: Donald Trump has said about trade, what he might do 401 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:41,320 Speaker 1: with regard to trade, the risk here of trade wars 402 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:44,679 Speaker 1: with Mexico and China, how that might affect the economy overall. 403 00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:46,440 Speaker 1: In other words, that could certainly dampen the effects of 404 00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 1: the stimulus. If the actual statements that he has made 405 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:57,000 Speaker 1: during the campaign for punitive tariffs on China, twenty five 406 00:24:57,040 --> 00:25:04,680 Speaker 1: of Mexico, other ten to aggressively bring UH jobs back 407 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 1: to the to the U S, that would be a 408 00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:10,760 Speaker 1: huge US negative vert to materialized in terms of activity, 409 00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:15,199 Speaker 1: because there would be foreign retaliation and we could have 410 00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:16,919 Speaker 1: a review of the thirties. I don't see this is 411 00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:20,959 Speaker 1: going to happen. I think this was a part of 412 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,480 Speaker 1: the electoral rhetoric which bears very relation to what actually 413 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:27,879 Speaker 1: will happened. But also both the Canadians and the Mexicans 414 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,080 Speaker 1: have already said yes, we're happy to talk, and this 415 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:34,639 Speaker 1: is just the opening of what will be long term 416 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 1: trade and foreign direct investment. Enough that type negotiations that 417 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:44,040 Speaker 1: will no good last years, but that end that the 418 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:48,200 Speaker 1: result in some more protectionism, but very modest. Same for China. 419 00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:51,680 Speaker 1: I don't think that either China or the US are 420 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:55,639 Speaker 1: really interested in having a major trade ding dong. They 421 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:59,160 Speaker 1: are the two largest nations in the world, uh, the 422 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,639 Speaker 1: two largest raiding nations in the world, so they have 423 00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 1: a lot to lose. For a long time, many months now, 424 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,320 Speaker 1: we've had conversations about the role of central banks. Now 425 00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:10,119 Speaker 1: you have a Republican Congress, Republican House, Republican Senate that 426 00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,800 Speaker 1: has not been shy about saying they intend to reign 427 00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:16,200 Speaker 1: in the powers of the Federal Reserve tie inflation at 428 00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:18,640 Speaker 1: sorry thie interest rate hikes to to the tailor rule, 429 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:21,679 Speaker 1: and etcetera. When you look at the role of the 430 00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:25,560 Speaker 1: the Fed here under a Trump presidency, how constricted do 431 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:30,159 Speaker 1: you think it will be by Congress? Oh, it depends 432 00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:36,359 Speaker 1: on whether Congress legislator the kind of insanity that they 433 00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:40,440 Speaker 1: were proposing, like the constraint the FED to follow a 434 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:44,080 Speaker 1: numerical tailor rule of some kind or whatever other rule. Now, 435 00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:50,159 Speaker 1: I think operational independence for monetary policy, narrowly defined interest rates, 436 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:54,600 Speaker 1: banastete expansion um. Now that has to remain there. If 437 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:59,240 Speaker 1: that goes, then be be brilliant trouble, and I think 438 00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:02,879 Speaker 1: it would be usually market negative. And now we digress 439 00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:09,359 Speaker 1: chair yelling. I would guess Professor Powder will serve a term. 440 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,480 Speaker 1: And of course the parlor game of who would be 441 00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:14,680 Speaker 1: another FED chairman has come up, and of course the 442 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:19,159 Speaker 1: name of public service esteemed is John B. Taylor Stanford. 443 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:23,400 Speaker 1: He would bring in a regime of a more rules 444 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:28,720 Speaker 1: and stringent based approach. Give us an update on rules 445 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:32,840 Speaker 1: versus discretion right now. Chairman Greenspan the other day made 446 00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:38,200 Speaker 1: it clear he still stands with discretion. Can President elect 447 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:42,639 Speaker 1: Trump shift US towards a rules based New Zealand like 448 00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:47,199 Speaker 1: Fellow Reserve? The New Zealand Fellow Reserve is not rules 449 00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:51,000 Speaker 1: based in any mechanical sense. Rules and discretion and all 450 00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:54,639 Speaker 1: alternatives you cannot have a complete rule that allows for 451 00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,359 Speaker 1: all contingency said tells you how you should respond with 452 00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:01,120 Speaker 1: your instruments interest rates que e q que to all 453 00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:05,240 Speaker 1: paeseeable circumstances. So that always has to be discretion in 454 00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 1: the sense that things will occur that we're not allowed 455 00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:11,560 Speaker 1: for unexpected events and you still have to act. So 456 00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,320 Speaker 1: but all you can do is try to give the 457 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:18,600 Speaker 1: most guidance information about your objectives. And that's a clear 458 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:23,959 Speaker 1: from um the peder Reserve Act and from the qualtitative 459 00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:27,119 Speaker 1: implementationals that the two percent inflation target and how you 460 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,800 Speaker 1: view the transmission mechanism as a policy making and then 461 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,000 Speaker 1: the markets can sit back and figure out how you're 462 00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:34,919 Speaker 1: likely to act. I just ask that question because I 463 00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 1: wanted to get the fired up into cold new garden. 464 00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:41,720 Speaker 1: Villain Bowder, thank you so much, not only for today, professor, 465 00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:46,960 Speaker 1: but for joining us over the recent weeks. Just extraordinary 466 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:48,520 Speaker 1: to have you in here and in coorse in this 467 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,480 Speaker 1: historical moment. I believe we got through that without talking 468 00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:54,479 Speaker 1: about the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, that was root of us. 469 00:28:55,120 --> 00:29:02,760 Speaker 1: Villain Bouder is a chief economist with City Group who 470 00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:06,560 Speaker 1: you put your trust in matters. Investors have put their 471 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,920 Speaker 1: trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune of 472 00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:14,840 Speaker 1: four trillion dollars. Why they see their role is to serve, 473 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:18,560 Speaker 1: not sell. That's why Charles Schwab is committed to the 474 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:23,280 Speaker 1: success of over seven thousand independent financial advisors who passionately 475 00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:27,720 Speaker 1: dedicate themselves to helping people achieve their financial goals. Learn 476 00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:37,760 Speaker 1: more and find your independent advisor dot com. A journey 477 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,600 Speaker 1: us Now Robert Sinch. We caught him in the backyard. 478 00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:43,520 Speaker 1: He's out like on the back forty acres raking. And 479 00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,400 Speaker 1: what's important, David Girl to understand. As you'd expect a 480 00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:50,760 Speaker 1: guy like you know, since to have the Gardinia combas system, 481 00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:54,360 Speaker 1: spring wire rake. You know, you'd think you'd be more 482 00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,920 Speaker 1: like organic and quiet. He's out there manning it with 483 00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:03,320 Speaker 1: a husk of viron, a tech flower. That's money. How 484 00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:06,480 Speaker 1: are the leaves this year? Bob Sinch? You know, Tom, 485 00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:09,200 Speaker 1: you do some great thinking when you're doing manual labor. 486 00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:13,160 Speaker 1: That so some of my some of my better ideas 487 00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,480 Speaker 1: over the years have come doing doing mine somewhat somewhat 488 00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:20,480 Speaker 1: mindless tasks. Bob Sinch has on a kitchen wall. Folks, 489 00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:24,120 Speaker 1: the list of things he's been wrong on and it's 490 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:27,000 Speaker 1: time for a victory lap. You got halfway to a 491 00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:30,560 Speaker 1: one thirty sterling and I think like eight or nine 492 00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:35,200 Speaker 1: or ten days one sixty six on sterling, Bob Sinch 493 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:41,320 Speaker 1: is extraordinary. How does that destabilize the political economic dialogue 494 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,480 Speaker 1: for Prime Minister may Well, I'll point out one other 495 00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 1: thing Tom, just in that in that context is that 496 00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:49,200 Speaker 1: this is a stronger sterling against the dollar in the 497 00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:52,200 Speaker 1: context of a much stronger dollar. So this really is 498 00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:56,400 Speaker 1: a pretty significant rebound for sterling. Um. I guess, I 499 00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:59,880 Speaker 1: guess part of it is, uh, you know, the court process, 500 00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:03,200 Speaker 1: the UK dragging on a little bit longer on the 501 00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:06,960 Speaker 1: Brexit process than people have expected. Um. I also think 502 00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:10,520 Speaker 1: the markets have found a different whipping boy to uh 503 00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:14,040 Speaker 1: to tick on in terms of the currency markets. Obviously, 504 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,200 Speaker 1: the the pay so now is the one that's uh, 505 00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:21,200 Speaker 1: the most favorite trade. But I do think, uh, what's 506 00:31:21,240 --> 00:31:24,080 Speaker 1: happening to sterling is a little bit instructive about the 507 00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:27,000 Speaker 1: pay so right. When you get these discrete events that 508 00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:31,200 Speaker 1: surprised the markets. Um, there's a big reversal of positions. 509 00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:35,760 Speaker 1: That's the nature of surprises and markets because positions were upset, 510 00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,920 Speaker 1: and there's an overshoot, and I think that's what happened 511 00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 1: in Sterling, and at some point that will happen in 512 00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,640 Speaker 1: the pace three standard deviations on twelve months or so 513 00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:47,160 Speaker 1: pay so chart right now, Bob Sinch, If I look 514 00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:50,640 Speaker 1: at weaker pay so to a person, everyone's rationalizing the move. 515 00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:54,680 Speaker 1: I don't buy it. Currency depreciation to a nation is 516 00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:57,680 Speaker 1: just that a depreciation. What is the effect to the 517 00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:01,160 Speaker 1: people of Mexico of a weaker pay so. You know, 518 00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:07,200 Speaker 1: we've seen Mexican inflation higher than the global average UM. Now, 519 00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:09,880 Speaker 1: fortunately it's only been about three and a half percent 520 00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:13,680 Speaker 1: or so. Interestingly, we've seen wages increasing about four and 521 00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:15,960 Speaker 1: a half percent or so in Mexico, so actually real 522 00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:19,360 Speaker 1: wages have been holding relatively steady. It's not clear that 523 00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:21,320 Speaker 1: will be the case going forward. It's not clear that 524 00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:23,560 Speaker 1: wage rates can keep up with what's going to happen 525 00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:28,520 Speaker 1: to higher prices, particularly for imported goods. But you know, 526 00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:33,320 Speaker 1: but in general, a currency depreciation UM is pretty devastating 527 00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:38,600 Speaker 1: for a population, particularly um uh in in developing economies 528 00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:41,959 Speaker 1: where the investment in banking sectors maybe aren't as mature, 529 00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:46,080 Speaker 1: and people in general don't have ways to protect themselves. 530 00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:47,840 Speaker 1: And I think that's you know what we're going to 531 00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,320 Speaker 1: see a little bit in in Mexico going forward. We 532 00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:53,240 Speaker 1: were focused on the optics yesterday, Bob of the President 533 00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 1: elect meeting with the President, going to Capitol Hill talking 534 00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:57,840 Speaker 1: about a legislative agenda with the Speaker of the House 535 00:32:57,840 --> 00:32:59,520 Speaker 1: and the Senate Majority leader. What do we what do 536 00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,480 Speaker 1: we watch and what are we listening for here in 537 00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:04,920 Speaker 1: the coming days? As as you as you think about 538 00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:07,760 Speaker 1: how far the pacer might fall, well, I think the 539 00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:11,200 Speaker 1: first thing we're listening for is normalcy. Um. And I 540 00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:15,120 Speaker 1: think that that you know, I think President Obama has 541 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,200 Speaker 1: has has told us that very well, this is an 542 00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:22,480 Speaker 1: orderly transition of power. These things happen. Not everybody's happy. Um. 543 00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:24,280 Speaker 1: The pace so I think in the short run has 544 00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:27,360 Speaker 1: gotten caught in sort of a trifecta. Right. The FED 545 00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:31,840 Speaker 1: now extremely likely to high grates in December. So that's 546 00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:35,120 Speaker 1: a negative for the pay so positive for the dollar. Second, 547 00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:37,240 Speaker 1: oil prices have begun to retreat. We just had to 548 00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:41,160 Speaker 1: report from the i e. A that non Opec production 549 00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 1: is going to be probably a bit a bit stronger, 550 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:45,600 Speaker 1: like a half a million barrels a day stronger than 551 00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:49,160 Speaker 1: than this year, UM, and that's put some downward pressure 552 00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:53,160 Speaker 1: on oil prices UH. And third, all the uncertainties surrounding 553 00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,960 Speaker 1: what the trade relationship will be between Mexico and UH 554 00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,880 Speaker 1: in the US. So in a sense sort of the 555 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:04,600 Speaker 1: fundamental backdrop from Mexico is even more serious than it 556 00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,840 Speaker 1: is for than it was for the UK. And I 557 00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,200 Speaker 1: think we would have seen downward pressure on the Paso 558 00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:13,640 Speaker 1: here because of oil prices and higher US rates UM, 559 00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,040 Speaker 1: even if even if the election outcome had been different, 560 00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:20,239 Speaker 1: probably not as serious, not record lows, but certainly that 561 00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:23,479 Speaker 1: the fundamentals are not there too for anyone to step 562 00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:25,279 Speaker 1: in and say, hey, these are great levels for me 563 00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:27,879 Speaker 1: to buy the pace, Bob, thank you so much. We'll 564 00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,080 Speaker 1: let you get back to your work on the lower 565 00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:37,640 Speaker 1: forty with the Huska Varna e Tech CCS engine. John Tucker, 566 00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:41,520 Speaker 1: that's like it's pretty good. Now, that's not gonna do it. 567 00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:46,560 Speaker 1: I mean, that's like moving. That's that's for rookies, rookie stuff. 568 00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:50,200 Speaker 1: Chris Folks, I'm so adept. When was the last time 569 00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:53,480 Speaker 1: I picked up a garden to old John Tucker? Nixon? Ris, President, 570 00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:10,320 Speaker 1: did you continue strong with our guests on Disney way 571 00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,920 Speaker 1: out front with caution. The headline is a fourth quarter stumble. 572 00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:16,680 Speaker 1: Rich Greenfield thinks it's more than a stumble used with 573 00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:21,160 Speaker 1: B T, I G. I get ESPN, But Disney is Disney, 574 00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:24,760 Speaker 1: or is it not? Give us an update? Look, ESPN 575 00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:28,760 Speaker 1: is fort of Disney's operating earnings or the cable network 576 00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:32,080 Speaker 1: division is fort of Disney's operating earnings, of which ESPN 577 00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:34,920 Speaker 1: is by far the biggest part. And an ESPN is 578 00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,600 Speaker 1: really struggling to grow. I mean that's the headline here, 579 00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:41,560 Speaker 1: is that ESPN is facing growth challenges. It's got, you know, 580 00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:45,560 Speaker 1: growing costs, and its revenue growth is slowing. Ratings are 581 00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:48,520 Speaker 1: a disaster. I mean, no one's watching Sports Center. NFL 582 00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:52,359 Speaker 1: ratings are down sharply. They've got challenges, real challenges when 583 00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:54,480 Speaker 1: they look ahead to their business. And I don't think 584 00:35:54,480 --> 00:35:58,280 Speaker 1: consumers are coming back to multi channel, live linear television. 585 00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:00,239 Speaker 1: I think there's just a new world out there. Earned 586 00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:04,040 Speaker 1: everything we see industry wise points to more and more 587 00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:07,600 Speaker 1: people choosing actively not to pay for television. Rich, what 588 00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:10,360 Speaker 1: have the comments that John Malone made yesterday at the 589 00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:13,080 Speaker 1: deal Book conference here in Manhattan, saying he speculated that 590 00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:16,919 Speaker 1: Disney may want to divest itself of ESPN. You know, look, 591 00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:18,560 Speaker 1: you know we thought a lot about, you know, how 592 00:36:18,560 --> 00:36:20,960 Speaker 1: would you fix Disney's problems, and you know, you could 593 00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,640 Speaker 1: almost undo I remember when I went to Goldman Sachs 594 00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:27,120 Speaker 1: for the first month I was there, Disney bought cap 595 00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:30,279 Speaker 1: Citi's ABC, and they got this little hidden gem at 596 00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,960 Speaker 1: the time called ESPN that ended up obviously being the 597 00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:36,600 Speaker 1: juggernaut of that transaction that was obviously twenty two years ago. 598 00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:38,600 Speaker 1: And you you look back and you go, you know, 599 00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:40,759 Speaker 1: would it make sense to spin it off now and 600 00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:44,240 Speaker 1: separate ESPN from Disney. It doesn't sound like the company 601 00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:46,839 Speaker 1: has any desire to do that. You know, Disney last 602 00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:49,839 Speaker 1: night basically said Bob Iger of Disney last night said 603 00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:52,600 Speaker 1: he feels more confident in ESPN's future than investors. So 604 00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:54,759 Speaker 1: that doesn't sound like someone was about to spin it off. 605 00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:58,080 Speaker 1: That being said, you know, a strategic change that Disney 606 00:36:58,080 --> 00:36:59,880 Speaker 1: probably would make a lot of sense given the chan 607 00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,560 Speaker 1: lenges they're facing. Rich I eavesdrop on the subway heard 608 00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:05,320 Speaker 1: a couple of guys talking about how saturated the football 609 00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:07,759 Speaker 1: season has become, how many football games there are, how 610 00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:09,319 Speaker 1: much of this has to do, just with the fact 611 00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:11,280 Speaker 1: that the NFL is giving us too much to watch. 612 00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:14,920 Speaker 1: You know, I don't know, it's it's one of those 613 00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:17,399 Speaker 1: things where I can't really put my finger on why 614 00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:20,280 Speaker 1: ratings are are as weak as they are. People complaining 615 00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:24,839 Speaker 1: about the officiating, people complain about the amount of commercials. 616 00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:27,680 Speaker 1: You know. Look, you look at epl over in Europe. 617 00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:30,320 Speaker 1: You know Premier League, which is one of SIS favorite 618 00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:32,680 Speaker 1: things in the whole world. Um, you know, Premier League 619 00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:35,960 Speaker 1: ratings are down in the UK and there's no commercials. 620 00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:37,759 Speaker 1: So I don't know if it's a commercial issue. I 621 00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:39,920 Speaker 1: don't know if it's purely an election issue because you're 622 00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:43,000 Speaker 1: dead TV. This is something, there's something going you know. 623 00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:45,080 Speaker 1: It's not a tune in problem here. Here's the issue. 624 00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:47,640 Speaker 1: Tune into its football is actually flat year over year. 625 00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:49,920 Speaker 1: The problem is tune out as soon as something is boring. 626 00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:54,200 Speaker 1: You have so many choices. Everyone that's listening to your show, 627 00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:56,399 Speaker 1: they're not to just watch a boring game. They can 628 00:37:56,400 --> 00:37:59,480 Speaker 1: go do Netflix, they can go watch video games on Twitch. Like. 629 00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:02,239 Speaker 1: You have an infinite number of options. And I just 630 00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:04,200 Speaker 1: think at some point there's a breaking or tipping point 631 00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:07,319 Speaker 1: we gotta do Twitch Tom, that's what's Rich Greenfield, thank 632 00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:08,520 Speaker 1: you so much. We'll get you in for a much 633 00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:11,239 Speaker 1: longer time here, Rich Greenfield. Bat. I think one of 634 00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:14,000 Speaker 1: the options is to watch Fox. Brett Bear scored special 635 00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:18,160 Speaker 1: report with Brett Bear. Brett Dunwoodie, Georgia. You can go 636 00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:21,920 Speaker 1: out to the kingswood United Methodist Church, the Kingsley Elementary School, 637 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:25,040 Speaker 1: you can go down Leon Wilmack Road to the Dunwoody 638 00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:29,799 Speaker 1: Library and you can vote. My perception, Brett Bear, there's 639 00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:34,320 Speaker 1: lots of people nodded politely or even paid lip service 640 00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:37,080 Speaker 1: to the zeitgeist, and they went in the voting booth 641 00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:40,840 Speaker 1: and they voted with a vengeance for Mr Trump. What 642 00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:43,800 Speaker 1: have you learned in the last two days? Yeah, good morning. 643 00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,480 Speaker 1: I think you're exactly right, Tom, I think and not 644 00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:48,319 Speaker 1: only that, but they came out and they didn't tell 645 00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:52,120 Speaker 1: the exit polers um, you know, they didn't talk to him, 646 00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:54,200 Speaker 1: and when they said, you know, who would you vote before, 647 00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:58,040 Speaker 1: they didn't say And that skewed the results in a 648 00:38:58,120 --> 00:39:01,319 Speaker 1: number of states. And we realized midnight, you know, like 649 00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:05,120 Speaker 1: during the night, about nine o'clock, the raw vote total 650 00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:08,160 Speaker 1: was not lining up with the Asian pole numbers, and 651 00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:10,440 Speaker 1: that's when we realized that you could have a president 652 00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:12,880 Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump and just a surveillance. Shout out to 653 00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,960 Speaker 1: Mr Bear's colleagu Chris Wallace, who actually allowed for a 654 00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:19,400 Speaker 1: true debate to occur in the third debate. You wonder, 655 00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:22,360 Speaker 1: as we look back at history, folks, how that changed 656 00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:26,239 Speaker 1: the dialogue You went on George Will last night. I 657 00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,480 Speaker 1: think as essay in the Washington Post is the single 658 00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:32,880 Speaker 1: best thing so far. He talks about demographics against the Republicans. 659 00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:35,800 Speaker 1: In two thousand and twenty six, Brett Berry, your Georgia 660 00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:39,719 Speaker 1: will be minority dominant. Mr Wills writing about not the 661 00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:42,680 Speaker 1: end of the Republican Party, but a Republican Party in 662 00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:46,560 Speaker 1: ascendency that has to wake up. How urgent is it? 663 00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:49,080 Speaker 1: It's urgent, But I'm hearing that there's going to be 664 00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:54,799 Speaker 1: a President Trump that acknowledges that and deals with it. 665 00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:58,040 Speaker 1: I'm hearing that, in addition to passing a slew of 666 00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:02,880 Speaker 1: economic bill rolls through an anxious and happy, excited Paul 667 00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:08,279 Speaker 1: Ryan Um that he may President Trump may travel to 668 00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:13,080 Speaker 1: these inner cities, uh and and speak to the problems 669 00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:16,640 Speaker 1: of African American communities that have been left behind and 670 00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:22,160 Speaker 1: if that happens, and if that message seeps in and 671 00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:26,440 Speaker 1: stuff starts to change, you could have the Republican Party 672 00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:28,680 Speaker 1: fighting back to be a fly on the wall in 673 00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:31,080 Speaker 1: the Oval Office. Yesterday when Donald Trump sat down with 674 00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:33,919 Speaker 1: Barack Obama the first time the two men had met, 675 00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:36,960 Speaker 1: a meeting schedules over tennis, David talks. Has the Oval 676 00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:42,399 Speaker 1: Office wired? But you think of the history that these 677 00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:45,879 Speaker 1: two men have, again, a history that that was something 678 00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:49,880 Speaker 1: that played out, uh during in speeches during during debates, 679 00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:52,200 Speaker 1: they hadn't met before. What did you make of of 680 00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:54,600 Speaker 1: how they looked what they said yesterday in that pool 681 00:40:54,640 --> 00:40:56,879 Speaker 1: spray following the meeting yesterday at the White House. Yeah, 682 00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,680 Speaker 1: I mean the words were good. I thought the image 683 00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:02,880 Speaker 1: was interesting. I thought, you know, Donald Trump, a humble 684 00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:07,239 Speaker 1: Donald Trump as he kind of looked. Um, I think 685 00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:10,600 Speaker 1: there's going to be a period here where, first of all, 686 00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:14,480 Speaker 1: the job and the the import of the job is 687 00:41:14,480 --> 00:41:18,520 Speaker 1: going to sink in and um, there's a lot to absorb. 688 00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:23,720 Speaker 1: He has his first presidential daily brief this morning, Donald 689 00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:28,560 Speaker 1: Trump does, and um, there's it's it's a huge job. 690 00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:31,040 Speaker 1: And I think the enormity of it. I think he 691 00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:33,480 Speaker 1: saw in his face and and for President Obama, I 692 00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:36,640 Speaker 1: think it was magnanimous and gracious, and I think he's 693 00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:39,120 Speaker 1: he's being accurate when he says he wants the transition 694 00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:41,799 Speaker 1: to be smooth. I spoke with with former Congressman Eric 695 00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:43,960 Speaker 1: Cantor the day after the election, and I said, this 696 00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:46,759 Speaker 1: must be great for for the incoming president. He's got 697 00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:49,279 Speaker 1: a Republican House, he's got a Republican Congress. And what 698 00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:51,600 Speaker 1: Congressman Cantor said to me is, you've got a real 699 00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:55,040 Speaker 1: tension within the House. Especially there's this Kansie and push 700 00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:58,160 Speaker 1: here for for stimulus, a lot of Republicans going along 701 00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:00,480 Speaker 1: with that, but then there are Republicans who are champions 702 00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:03,359 Speaker 1: of fiscal responsibility, and he doesn't think that it's all 703 00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:05,560 Speaker 1: said and done here. What's what's your sense of how 704 00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:08,000 Speaker 1: cohesive the Republican Party is going to be in the 705 00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:10,839 Speaker 1: in the House especially, Yeah, I think it's a great point. 706 00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:13,239 Speaker 1: I mean, you've got the White House, you've got the House, 707 00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:15,520 Speaker 1: you've got the Senate. You just don't have any excuses, 708 00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:19,160 Speaker 1: there's no excuse to get what you want to get through, 709 00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:22,960 Speaker 1: and there is a break. I do think that they're 710 00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:24,359 Speaker 1: going to be going to be able to herd the 711 00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:28,439 Speaker 1: cats because there has been this cloud over Republicans where 712 00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:31,239 Speaker 1: they feel like they are just spinning awhee, Okay, many 713 00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:33,920 Speaker 1: years then there's gonna be a cup of coffee between 714 00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:38,160 Speaker 1: the gentleman from the Navy in Arizona, Mr McCain and 715 00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:42,400 Speaker 1: President elect Trump or President Trump. UM, tell me about filibuster, 716 00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:45,120 Speaker 1: Brett Berry, you're a lot more wired into filibuster dynamics 717 00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:47,560 Speaker 1: than I am. Is Mr McCain and others going to 718 00:42:47,680 --> 00:42:52,160 Speaker 1: enjoy the art of filibuster? I don't think so. I 719 00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:53,960 Speaker 1: think they're going to try to get to the things 720 00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:57,359 Speaker 1: that they can get through first, and then they're going 721 00:42:57,440 --> 00:43:00,760 Speaker 1: to kind of deal with the others. Doff. Now, remember 722 00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:04,560 Speaker 1: you have five Democrats up for red seat re election 723 00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:07,359 Speaker 1: uh in two years. They're going to be a lot 724 00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:11,560 Speaker 1: more willing to work with Republicans than than before. News 725 00:43:11,560 --> 00:43:13,719 Speaker 1: broke yesterday that the White House is going to push 726 00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:16,200 Speaker 1: for an element of Donn Frank to go through here. 727 00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:19,360 Speaker 1: These are bonuses on financial service caps, on bonuses for 728 00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:22,719 Speaker 1: financial services professionals. What else do you expect we'll see 729 00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:24,320 Speaker 1: here during this lame duck session. If there's not a 730 00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:26,160 Speaker 1: whole lot of movement in Congress. What do you think 731 00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:27,759 Speaker 1: the White House is going to try to get done 732 00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:34,000 Speaker 1: before January? Boy, I can't imagine anything of of significance 733 00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:39,000 Speaker 1: getting through. Um I I really don't even think that 734 00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:42,280 Speaker 1: there's going to be much at all. You know, obviously, 735 00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:44,279 Speaker 1: if it was a President Clinton, it was going to 736 00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:47,719 Speaker 1: they were going to try to move Marck Garlan. But uh, 737 00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:50,719 Speaker 1: none of that is moving Red Bear, thank you so much. 738 00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:53,360 Speaker 1: Special report with Red Bear, And of course we have 739 00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:56,239 Speaker 1: our Sunday shows. We are thrilled to bree you the 740 00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:59,799 Speaker 1: work of the morning Bloomberg Radio in the afternoon, all 741 00:43:59,880 --> 00:44:02,640 Speaker 1: the different Sunday in the show's Fox News Sundays. For 742 00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:07,160 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcasts, subscribe and listen to 743 00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:12,440 Speaker 1: interviews on iTunes, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. 744 00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:16,040 Speaker 1: I'm out on Twitter at Tom Keene. David Gura is 745 00:44:16,160 --> 00:44:19,960 Speaker 1: at David Gura. Before the podcast, you can always catch 746 00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:37,320 Speaker 1: us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio. Who you put your trust in? Matters? 747 00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:41,839 Speaker 1: Investors have put their trust in independent registered investment advisors 748 00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:45,919 Speaker 1: to the tune of four trillion dollars. Why learn more 749 00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:50,960 Speaker 1: and find your independent advisor dot com