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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by the Fanduels Sportsbook.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Brendan Glasheen, joined by Sean Zarillo and

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Speaker 1: Billy Ward.

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Speaker 3: You know what that means?

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Speaker 1: UFC Betting Preview or breaking down.

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Speaker 3: UFC Vegas seventy three.

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Speaker 1: It goes down this weekend from the UFC Apex Center

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Speaker 1: in Las Vegas, looking at our favorite underdog, plays, props

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Speaker 1: and more, finishing up with favorite bets, best bets, final bets,

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Speaker 1: whatever we decide to call them at some point down

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Speaker 1: the road. We start with the main event in Vegas.

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Speaker 1: We've got Mackenzie durn the favorite, opposing Angela Hill Sorilla.

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Speaker 1: Looking at the match up here, Dern presents some jiu

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Speaker 1: jitsu background, and then you've got Hill, who has a

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Speaker 1: defensive approach. When you look at the odds and the

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Speaker 1: money line numbers and then examining just how you think

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Speaker 1: the fight will go.

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Speaker 3: How do you want to bet this one?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: I think Billy and I have a pretty similar approach

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Speaker 5: in terms of how we read this fight. I think

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Speaker 5: the difficult most difficult part is deciding which side I

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Speaker 5: want to be on. Very binary in terms of Hill

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Speaker 5: being the better minute winner, Dern being the better finisher,

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Speaker 5: more finishing upside, and I heard somebody say this week,

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Speaker 5: I think it's a brilliant line, so I'm just going

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Speaker 5: to steal it. But Dern is not fighting Angela Hill.

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Speaker 5: She's fighting the clock. She has twenty five minutes to

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Speaker 5: get a submission, and she probably needs to get a

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Speaker 5: takedown in the first half of around in order to

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Speaker 5: get to the position she needs to get that submission.

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Speaker 5: Angela Hill doesn't have the best takedown defense, but Mackenzie

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Speaker 5: Dern is not a good wrestler, so there's probably going

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Speaker 5: to be maybe one takedown where she's able to do

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Speaker 5: something with it, or maybe she's able to get in

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Speaker 5: the clinch, take kills, back backpacker, standing backpack up against

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Speaker 5: the cage, something like that. So I do expect Hill,

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Speaker 5: over the course of twenty five minutes to land more strikes,

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Speaker 5: win more minutes. But it's possible that Dern has two

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Speaker 5: rounds where she completely dominates and is able to get

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Speaker 5: a Tana eighty out of it. We could see some

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Speaker 5: wonky judging here, maybe he'll lands more strikes in a round,

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Speaker 5: but Durn gets to take down in the second half

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Speaker 5: of the round and threatens his submission, and then the

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Speaker 5: judges have to wait Hill's volume against dirt and submission attempt.

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Speaker 5: Or Dern might just have these dominant rounds where she

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Speaker 5: has top position for four minutes in this threatening submissions

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Speaker 5: and one judge gives her a ten eight but one

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Speaker 5: does not. That's what happened in her fight with Jean

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Speaker 5: and Jana on where I believe she lost the split

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Speaker 5: and most people thought she should have won. So could

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Speaker 5: be some wonukee judging here. Billy's going to get into

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Speaker 5: more why he's playing a prop because of that wonky judging.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, I think our read on it is very similar.

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Speaker 5: I just frankly don't know where I'm going to land

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Speaker 5: in terms of Hill money line plus one fifty, decision

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Speaker 5: plus two ten or Durn inside the distance at plus

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Speaker 5: one fifty. I think all three or viable bets. I

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Speaker 5: just frankly don't know where I want.

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Speaker 3: To sweat it.

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Speaker 5: Do I want to sweat Hill like surviving for twenty

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Speaker 5: five minutes, and if she does, she's probably gonna see

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Speaker 5: her hand raised, or do I want the probability that

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Speaker 5: Durdan probably has two significant opportunities to finish this fight

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Speaker 5: with either you know, ground control and threatening his submission

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Speaker 5: or getting Hills back. So yeah, I really don't see

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Speaker 5: it playing out much differently. I just am having a

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Speaker 5: difficult time figuring out specifically what I want to bet.

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Speaker 5: But I'll have a write up up on Action network

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Speaker 5: dot com. By the time I publish, I will have

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Speaker 5: made a decision.

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Speaker 1: And speaking of Billy, Ward has his luck ratings posted

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Speaker 1: for UFC Vegas seventy three head those up a couple

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Speaker 1: of days ago. So Billy, on the subject of durn Hill,

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Speaker 1: there is an angle on Hill that you find has

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Speaker 1: some potential value.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and it's really the same thing that zare a

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Speaker 4: little laid out. The one thing he didn't bring up,

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Speaker 4: which I think might be a factor, is it wouldn't

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Speaker 4: shock me at all if Durren pulls guard, if she's

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Speaker 4: unable to get a takedown, and she's gonna be the

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Speaker 4: more active fighter, even from underneath Angela Hill. If if

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Speaker 4: Angela Hill's in her clothes guard, Darren's gonna be doing

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Speaker 4: more stuff threatening submissions. But that doesn't mean the judges

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Speaker 4: are gonna give it to Durn frequently we see if

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Speaker 4: you're on top, you kind of automatically win. Hill is

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Speaker 4: almost certainly going to win the stand up portions of

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Speaker 4: this fight. She has the Muay Thai background. Darren doesn't

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Speaker 4: really want to strike. She almost strikes like Hoyst Gracie

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Speaker 4: with like the little front kick just to try to

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Speaker 4: initiate the grappling, you know, real old school style. So

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Speaker 4: I think he's gonna win the stand up portion. And

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Speaker 4: as Shong pointed out, you know, is Darren gonna be

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Speaker 4: able to get the takedowns or not? We're not sure.

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Speaker 4: Even if she does get the takedown, if she gets

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Speaker 4: it late and doesn't get the submission, the judges probably

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Speaker 4: are going to give that to Angela Hill if she

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Speaker 4: does more of the striking earlier in the rounds. We

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Speaker 4: have seen judges with some late round bias, which concerns

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Speaker 4: me a little bit. You know, kind of whoever wins

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Speaker 4: the last minute, even if they lost earlier sometimes gets

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Speaker 4: some judging. But you know, hill By decision is my

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Speaker 4: like quote unquote official play here at plus two to

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Speaker 4: ten like that, but on a props god style bet

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Speaker 4: I'm going angela hill by split or majority decision that's

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Speaker 4: as high as plus eight hundred. It's really tough to

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Speaker 4: judge these jiu jitsu fighters who fight off their back.

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Speaker 4: You know, all it takes is one judge that thinks

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Speaker 4: McKenzie durn has been the more active fighter from her back.

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Speaker 4: We've got to split possibly a majority with the ten

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Speaker 4: eight angles that Zerla pointed out, and then if you

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Speaker 4: wanted to hedge it during inside the distance at plus

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Speaker 4: one fifty, she almost certainly needs a stoppage to win here.

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Speaker 4: I don't see Mackenzie during winning a decision, so I'll

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Speaker 4: probably have a little sprinkle on the latter two of

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Speaker 4: those bets, but my main play is hill by decision.

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Speaker 4: I wish this one had remained on the Charlotte card

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Speaker 4: with all the crazy judging we saw there, because this

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Speaker 4: would have been guaranteed splitter majority decision for someone if

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Speaker 4: it was still there. Vegas judges tend to do a

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Speaker 4: little bit better job, but this one is probably, you know, rightfully,

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Speaker 4: a splitter majority decision where neither of us feel really

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Speaker 4: confident about who's the winner.

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Speaker 1: When we discussed the Charlotte card last week, you both

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Speaker 1: felt that it was a good card for underdogs, and

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Speaker 1: I think we might have a similar theme to this

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Speaker 1: week's card, but we go to underdogs now. Our favorite

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Speaker 1: dog for the weekend Sean Sorolla.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Emily Ducody.

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Speaker 5: She's getting Lupy godin As, who is taking another short

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Speaker 5: notice fight, and we've seen with Loopy in the past

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Speaker 5: taking these short notice fights. Maybe doesn't have the energy

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Speaker 5: level as she typically does off of a full camp,

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Speaker 5: hasn't made the improvements that she would have made after

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Speaker 5: a full camp. She said in past fights she was

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Speaker 5: done taking short notice fights. Don't know why she took

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Speaker 5: this one on ten days notice. And when Lupy wrestles,

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Speaker 5: or when Lupy has success wrestling, she wins her fights,

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Speaker 5: but she's not always reliable to wrestle, which is a

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Speaker 5: bit odd. And in this fight, particularly against Emily Ducoty,

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Speaker 5: who has a college wrestling background, who may in fact

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Speaker 5: be the better wrestler, I'm not sure if that's the case,

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Speaker 5: but I think the wrestling is closer than the shriking

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Speaker 5: do Cody is the better kickboxer. She's a two inch

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Speaker 5: reach advantage. Frankly, I don't see why she's the underdog.

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Speaker 5: I think she was coming in off of a full camp. Well,

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Speaker 5: Loopy is the one jumping in here on short notice.

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Speaker 5: But regardless the stylistic matchups, I would actually make to

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Speaker 5: Cody the favorite, so Emily to Cody at plus one

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Speaker 5: twenty and then maybe to Cody by decision, but probably

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Speaker 5: just play the money.

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Speaker 3: On billy underdog that you like for the weekend.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this is another one from my luck ratings. Edmund

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Speaker 4: Shabazian still like the line now, you know, if you

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Speaker 4: read that article on Tuesday, he was north of plus

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Speaker 4: two hundred, still plus one seventy six for his fight

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Speaker 4: against Anthony Fluffy Hernandez. It's just an interesting fight, you know.

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Speaker 4: I never like Hernandez as a heavy favorite. He's just

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Speaker 4: such a volatile fighter, does weird stuff, wins when he shouldn't,

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Speaker 4: loses when he shouldn't. But I think Sabazian is a

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Speaker 4: little bit under sold here. He was kind of a

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Speaker 4: top prospect when he came in, super young when he

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Speaker 4: made his debut, and then he fought three guys in

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Speaker 4: a row who were all current ranked middleweights. He lost

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Speaker 4: all of those, but he was twenty three or twenty

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Speaker 4: two for all those fights, So I really don't want

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Speaker 4: to hold that against him. He looked a lot better

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Speaker 4: in his most recent fight. I think Hernandez is a

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Speaker 4: bit of a step down relative to the guys he's

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Speaker 4: lost to, and he's still just twenty five. You know,

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Speaker 4: this is kind of a recurring theme for some of

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Speaker 4: my picks this week, But some of these younger fighters,

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Speaker 4: it's not so much handicapping what they have done, but

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Speaker 4: trying to progress, you know, figure out how much they've progressed.

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Speaker 4: I think he still has a lot more room for

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Speaker 4: progression than Hernandez. Hernandez is twenty nine, but been a

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Speaker 4: pro fighter a little bit longer. I think we've seen

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Speaker 4: the best out of him. I think Hernandez should be

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Speaker 4: the favorite here, but not nearly a you know, two

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Speaker 4: to one odds or wherever he's at right now. So

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Speaker 4: I think Shabazian starts to live back up to the

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Speaker 4: hype that he had coming into the UFC career now

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Speaker 4: that he's filling out, rounding out his game a little

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Speaker 4: bit better. So I'll still take it at plus one

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Speaker 4: seventy five.

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Speaker 1: Billy and Shown's Fight of the Night is the first

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Speaker 1: fight on the main card on Saturday. Diego Ferreira and

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Speaker 1: Michael Johnson. Johnson's the dog at plus one thirty two

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Speaker 1: at FanDuel Ferreira at minus one sixty two Zerillo. Are

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Speaker 1: we aiming towards the dog in this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's where d Leen.

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Speaker 5: I think Billy is a pretty more error is a

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Speaker 5: more definitive stance on this one than I do. But

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Speaker 5: both of these guys have faced very high level compic

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Speaker 5: of the past Johnson, Dustin Poyer, Anthony Pettis or I

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Speaker 5: should say CDF his face doesn't Poy Anthony Pettis. I

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Speaker 5: believe Johnson has been in there with kobeeb like best

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Speaker 5: of the best lightweights in the world. These guys have

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Speaker 5: faced so really high level matchup when both were in

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Speaker 5: their prime. Now they're both in their late thirties, maybe

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Speaker 5: not necessarily as high level of a fight as we

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Speaker 5: would have gotten a couple of years ago. Carlos Diegraffer

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Speaker 5: also coming in off about an eighteen month layoffs, so

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Speaker 5: not really sure what you're going to get out of him.

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Speaker 5: Is he going to arrest? Especially off of three straight

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Speaker 5: losses and he was finished in his last two, so

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Speaker 5: who knows where the motivation is. I also heard that

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Speaker 5: he left his camp. He's no longer with Fourtis MMA

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Speaker 5: and is now training on his own. That's not an

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Speaker 5: encouraging sign either, particularly at his age. But Michael Johnson

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Speaker 5: has been in there more recently has looked pretty sharp

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Speaker 5: in those fights too. I would expect him to have

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Speaker 5: the striking advantage here, just needs to avoid the takedowns.

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Speaker 3: He does get taken down.

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Speaker 5: Fairly easily throughout his UFC career, and he needs to

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Speaker 5: get avoid getting his back taken. But at plus money,

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Speaker 5: I think he is a pretty definitive edge in one

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Speaker 5: of the areas of MMA, which would be the striking,

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Speaker 5: and then I think he can stay reasonably safe in

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Speaker 5: terms of his wrestling to avoid the dangerous spots that

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Speaker 5: Carlos Diego Ferrera can get to plus down the stretch,

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Speaker 5: given the age, the fact that he's been in there

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Speaker 5: more recently. In their general cardio relative to one another,

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Speaker 5: I think Johnson probably wins the third round at a

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Speaker 5: higher clip too, so that leads more equity towards him

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Speaker 5: winning minutes. I think the finishing upside probably about the

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Speaker 5: same on each side, so grappling upside Diego Ferrera, but

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Speaker 5: minute winning probably Johnson, so as an underdog side. He's

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Speaker 5: ridling Billy.

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Speaker 1: I didn't see Johnson Ferreira in your luck ratings right up?

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Speaker 1: Is Johnson at priced about right or any chance undervalued?

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Speaker 1: What do you think?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it wasn't what I looked at, just because I

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Speaker 4: didn't have a ton on Fajeda when we were looking

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Speaker 4: at that. But you know, I'm not really analyzing this

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Speaker 4: one from a stylistic or technical match up the way

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Speaker 4: Sean is. But so much it's just again I've talked

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Speaker 4: about it, or talked about it in the last fight,

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Speaker 4: but just the age and the career progression. It feels

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Speaker 4: like Michael Johnson's been in the UFC for like twenty years,

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Speaker 4: Like I can't remember ever watching the UFC without him.

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Speaker 4: But he's actually the younger fighter in this matchup. He's

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Speaker 4: both younger and he's been more active lately. He's one

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Speaker 4: two out of his last three. The only loss was

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Speaker 4: a split decision that he probably should have won against

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Speaker 4: Jamie Malarkey, so you know that could have been included

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Speaker 4: in the luck ratings. But Diego Fajeda is thirty eight.

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Speaker 4: It's been more than eighteen months since he had a fight,

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Speaker 4: and it's been more than three years since he's won

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Speaker 4: a fight, So I don't really understand how a guy

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Speaker 4: coming off that kind of layoff at his age, and

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Speaker 4: you know, we haven't seen him in a fight since

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Speaker 4: before the pandemic, and all of a sudden, he's favored

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Speaker 4: against a guy who's won two out of three. That

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Speaker 4: just doesn't make sense. It almost feels like the market

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Speaker 4: is assuming that Michael Johnson has watched, but Diego Fajeda

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Speaker 4: is still closer to his prime, and I think, if anything,

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Speaker 4: the opposite is the case. So plus money more than

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Speaker 4: enough for me. I'd make it about a.

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Speaker 5: Pick him Johnson U of City Debu in twenty ten

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Speaker 5: the Ultimate Fighter twelve finale, which is wild, and this

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Speaker 5: is his twenty eight UFC fight.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Where we look in Zerlo for UFC Vegas seventy three.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm going back to a fight that Billy just

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Speaker 5: talked about. Edmund Shabazian, So the one failure that we've

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Speaker 5: seen with Shabazian throughout his career. He's extremely talented, but

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Speaker 5: that cardio does not hold up. And in this matchup,

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Speaker 5: in particular with Anthony Hernandez, who might have the best

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Speaker 5: cardio of any fighter in the UFC. I mean it's

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Speaker 5: really up there in terms of how good Fluffy's cardio is.

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Speaker 5: I think the second and third rounds of this fight

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Speaker 5: could be absolute hell for Sabazian. First round Shabazian should

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Speaker 5: probably win, he might even finish the fight. We've seen

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Speaker 5: Hernandez put out early in the past and Shabazian is

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Speaker 5: very dangerous. But the longer this fight goes, I do

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Speaker 5: think Hernandez is just going to completely drown him with pace,

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Speaker 5: and as we've seen in the past, Shabazian once he

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Speaker 5: gets tired, once it starts going poorly for him, he

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Speaker 5: does kind of quit. So Fluffy Hernandez round two plus

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Speaker 5: five hundred plus five fifty, Round three plus eight hundred

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Speaker 5: plus eight fifty. I'd also look to bet him live

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Speaker 5: after round one. Agree with Billy Shabazi in the pre

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Speaker 5: fight side not going to have anything on Hernande'z pre

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Speaker 5: fight other than small stabs on those round props, but

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Speaker 5: after round one I'd probably look to jump in on

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Speaker 5: Hernandez Billy.

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Speaker 1: Were we looking for props this weekend?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, real quick.

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Speaker 4: To Sean's point, that has totally convinced me I need

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Speaker 4: to hedge off Sabazian after round one if he doesn't

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Speaker 4: finish it's those are good points. The only reason I

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Speaker 4: kind of hesitated on giving out a live bet is

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Speaker 4: this is a pretty lower level UFC card, so I'm

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Speaker 4: not sure how many people are actually going to be

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Speaker 4: watching it and betting it live Present Company included, so

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Speaker 4: as a little hesitant to give live anything this week.

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Speaker 4: But as far as my prop, I'm looking at Chase

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Speaker 4: Hooper inside the distance at plus two hundred. I like

329
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Speaker 4: him as an underdog side much like Wishabazian very hype

330
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Speaker 4: prospect came in super young still. I think he's twenty

331
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Speaker 4: three right now, but he's three and three in the UFC.

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Speaker 4: All three of his wins were inside the distance. Nine

333
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Speaker 4: of his eleven pro wins have been inside the distance.

334
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Speaker 4: It's pretty clear that he's not a great minute winner.

335
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Speaker 4: He needs to finish fights. I like his ability to

336
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Speaker 4: do so. Now coming up to one fifty five, though,

337
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Speaker 4: you know he was so tall and so skinny as

338
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Speaker 4: a forty five or especially at his age, you know,

339
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Speaker 4: does that give him a little bit more muscle, Is

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Speaker 4: he able to fill out a little bit. I think

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Speaker 4: all those things help his finishing ability. I also really

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Speaker 4: like the matchup for him. He's fighting Nick Fiore. Fiore

343
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Speaker 4: was six to zero against like super low level competition,

344
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Speaker 4: got a short notice UFC fight, kind of got dominated

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Speaker 4: in it. No shame in that, but it's one of

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Speaker 4: those that he might be UFC level, but we really

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Speaker 4: don't know that. We have no evidence that he can

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Speaker 4: beat top competition. Where as Hooper, we've seen him beat

349
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Speaker 4: three other UFC fighters, and he's probably still getting significantly

350
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Speaker 4: better at just twenty three, going up to a weight

351
00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,040
Speaker 4: class that at six foot one should serve him a

352
00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:12,520
Speaker 4: little bit better. And his striking came a long way.

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Speaker 4: We've seen him strike a lot better in his last

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Speaker 4: couple of fights. So that's why I'm going inside the

355
00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:19,040
Speaker 4: distance instead of submission, even though he's more known as

356
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Speaker 4: a submission guy.

357
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Speaker 5: I just want to comment on this fight very quickly

358
00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:25,000
Speaker 5: because this is an angle that we see a lot

359
00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:28,760
Speaker 5: of the time, where Fiory debuted as Billy mentioned on

360
00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:33,200
Speaker 5: short notice as a big underdog against Matais Rebeccy, he

361
00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:35,880
Speaker 5: actually kind of outfought his price tag. Most people thought

362
00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:38,480
Speaker 5: he would get finished in that fight, but because he

363
00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:42,120
Speaker 5: debuted as such a big underdog and actually competed well

364
00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:45,320
Speaker 5: against the prospect, people are high on the fact that

365
00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:48,000
Speaker 5: he did well in a loss got him to a

366
00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:49,960
Speaker 5: favorite in this fight. And this is something we see

367
00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,280
Speaker 5: all the time, who these debutants who sort of outfight

368
00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:55,840
Speaker 5: their odds get a lot of respect for their next

369
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Speaker 5: fight even though they didn't win, and a lot of.

370
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Speaker 3: Time we see them lose.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, I actually agree with Billy where I think

372
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:06,080
Speaker 5: the market maybe overreacting to Fiory or maybe overreacting to

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Speaker 5: Chase Hooper moving up from more th forty five to

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Speaker 5: one fifty five. My initial reaction was oof, Maybe not

375
00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:13,600
Speaker 5: a good look for Chase moving up in weight when

376
00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:15,679
Speaker 5: he already wasn't the most physically strong guy at one

377
00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:18,840
Speaker 5: forty five. But as Billy said, it might actually help

378
00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:21,000
Speaker 5: him to add muscle, finally fill out his frame, be

379
00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:23,639
Speaker 5: able to put things on his frame that he otherwise

380
00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:26,840
Speaker 5: you know, wasn't adding previously. So interesting to see how

381
00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:29,080
Speaker 5: this transition of one to fifty five years for Chase.

382
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:31,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, and with the younger fighters like that, Like you know,

383
00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:34,520
Speaker 4: you guys know probably most of our audience, you tend

384
00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:35,840
Speaker 4: to fill out a little bit in your early to

385
00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:38,280
Speaker 4: mid twenties. I think because he's been trying to cut

386
00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:40,760
Speaker 4: the weight so frequently and make one forty five, that's

387
00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:43,719
Speaker 4: probably her to strength more and getting a little bit

388
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:45,280
Speaker 4: of time off, getting to hit the weight room and

389
00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,520
Speaker 4: just eat like a normal person for a little bit

390
00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:49,600
Speaker 4: to come up to one fifty five. I think he's

391
00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:52,400
Speaker 4: going to be significantly better as a lightweight. I generally

392
00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:54,439
Speaker 4: prefer fighters coming up in weight, just because it makes

393
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:57,000
Speaker 4: you so much healthier and so much easier, rather than

394
00:17:57,040 --> 00:17:59,480
Speaker 4: going down and wait. Other than you know, the Kevin

395
00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:01,920
Speaker 4: Hollins or whatever of the world, who clearly we're fighting

396
00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:03,000
Speaker 4: one weight class too heavy.

397
00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:05,440
Speaker 5: Gilbert Burns used to be a lightweight so much better

398
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:07,040
Speaker 5: well through what exactly.

399
00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:08,479
Speaker 1: I won't speak for both of you, but I had

400
00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:11,200
Speaker 1: no problem filling out weight in my twenties.

401
00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:14,159
Speaker 4: I went from one fifty five to one seventy in

402
00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:16,240
Speaker 4: my fight career. In my early twenties, I just couldn't

403
00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:18,560
Speaker 4: make fifty five anymore, you get some of that man strength,

404
00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:20,560
Speaker 4: and I think that's going to help Chase Hooper a

405
00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:22,919
Speaker 4: lot rather than just being a string. Being at one

406
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Speaker 4: forty five.

407
00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:25,880
Speaker 5: I've gone from middleweight to light heavyweight over the course

408
00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:28,280
Speaker 5: of the pandemic, so we all fill out over the

409
00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:29,160
Speaker 5: course of our careers.

410
00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:31,680
Speaker 1: That was nice of Billy to make that very relatable

411
00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:36,200
Speaker 1: to the audience and to his fellow co hosts Our David,

412
00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:39,120
Speaker 1: our audio producer, has weight in in our our side chat,

413
00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,119
Speaker 1: so see everyone, everyone feels connected to Billy's comment. There.

414
00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:46,240
Speaker 1: Let's wrap with we haven't talked a ton of the

415
00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:48,439
Speaker 1: prelim car but you guys do have a bet from

416
00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:50,960
Speaker 1: the prelims, one each to wrap us up, so we'll

417
00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 1: go Sean first and Billy.

418
00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:53,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, I didn't want to go ahead to have on

419
00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:56,480
Speaker 5: our best bets, but I was actually leaning towards going

420
00:18:56,480 --> 00:18:58,320
Speaker 5: against him in his fight un till I saw what

421
00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:00,000
Speaker 5: he had picked. So just know we're on opposite side

422
00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:02,560
Speaker 5: that matchup. I'm curious though, where Billy landed on my

423
00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:07,680
Speaker 5: fight that I picked, which is Vyaslav borshev going against Mahashats,

424
00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:11,960
Speaker 5: who has very interesting style. I'm actually not sure what

425
00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:15,760
Speaker 5: Mahashat is good at uh, he has power, he's durable,

426
00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:18,480
Speaker 5: but I don't know if there's any sort of competent

427
00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:21,960
Speaker 5: game plan that he has. Both of these guys are

428
00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:24,440
Speaker 5: going to struggle against wrestlers who can take them down.

429
00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:28,200
Speaker 5: We should get a striker versus striker matchup here, But actually,

430
00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 5: stylistically or the way the skill level of the striking

431
00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:36,240
Speaker 5: matches up almost reminds me of the Carlos Oberg versus

432
00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:40,600
Speaker 5: Iwerbytaria fight from last week, where sure Potaria is gonna

433
00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:42,520
Speaker 5: get or Mahon Schatz is going to get this type

434
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:44,399
Speaker 5: of file, the type of fight that they want on

435
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,359
Speaker 5: the feet, striking it out, But there is such a

436
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:51,760
Speaker 5: technical discrepancy in the level of striking here, the level

437
00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:55,000
Speaker 5: of footwork, the level of fight IQ and shot selection.

438
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:59,320
Speaker 5: I think Borshev absolutely destroys him and carves him up

439
00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:01,240
Speaker 5: on the feet. This guy as a former professional high

440
00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:05,920
Speaker 5: level kickboxer, master of sport from Russia, the striking coach

441
00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:09,399
Speaker 5: for Team Alphamel. When Borschev is able to just strike

442
00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:13,800
Speaker 5: and let his hands go, he is unbelievably impressive. I mean,

443
00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,640
Speaker 5: one of like the best technical strikers in the UFC.

444
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:22,440
Speaker 5: Professional boxing career knockouts, their professional kickboxing career knockouts, their

445
00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:26,639
Speaker 5: MAHA's Shots still very limited MMA experience. But if therese

446
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:28,520
Speaker 5: two are just going to strike it out, if Mahas

447
00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:30,440
Speaker 5: Shots is not going to try to take him down

448
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,240
Speaker 5: and just let Borschev get comfortable on the feet, I

449
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,000
Speaker 5: think Borschev puts him away and fairly quickly. So they

450
00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:38,240
Speaker 5: asaslat Borschev minus one fifty. I think he's the better

451
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 5: minute winner. I think he's more likely to finish the fight.

452
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 5: I just think Maha Shots is more power. You need

453
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:45,439
Speaker 5: to wrestle him to beat him in Maha Shot probably

454
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 5: not going to do that successfully.

455
00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 1: Billy, would you like to touch on the fight that

456
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:50,560
Speaker 1: Zerillo nearly went against you on?

457
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 4: Well, I'm going to touch on the one that he

458
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 4: actually gave out first. I think Sean's right, and that's

459
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:57,719
Speaker 4: the side. I don't love the price just because of

460
00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:00,320
Speaker 4: kind of how similar these two have actually been in

461
00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:03,520
Speaker 4: terms of performance, But on paper, yeah, Slava Clau is

462
00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,840
Speaker 4: way better skilled. I just I always worry a little

463
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 4: bit that that skill with the big gloves and the

464
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:11,679
Speaker 4: kickboxing doesn't always translate the way we'd like it too.

465
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:17,120
Speaker 4: For mma right, like, there's just other factors. It frequently does,

466
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:18,840
Speaker 4: and I think that's the right side. It was just

467
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:20,679
Speaker 4: a little bit juicier than I wanted.

468
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 5: But in terms of if Borsh I had more room

469
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 5: in a big cage to use his foot work, I'd

470
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,439
Speaker 5: be like insanely confident in him here to stay safe.

471
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,360
Speaker 5: But the smaller cage helps my shot a little bit.

472
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,200
Speaker 4: In my shot, like I pointed out, with Hubert twenty

473
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,600
Speaker 4: three years old, maybe he's added some grappling, maybe he's

474
00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:37,600
Speaker 4: added some We just kind of don't know what these

475
00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 4: younger guys who aren't fully formed. But yeah, you know,

476
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:42,119
Speaker 4: if it was a pick him, I definitely be on

477
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:46,120
Speaker 4: Sean's side, even you know, slightly better odds. But yeah,

478
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 4: in terms of the one that we're on the opposite

479
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,879
Speaker 4: sides of, I'm looking at Vanessa Demopolis at slight plus money,

480
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:54,159
Speaker 4: and it's another like age slash progression play. She's not

481
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:57,120
Speaker 4: a ton younger than Carolina Koblekoevich, but she is much

482
00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,359
Speaker 4: much newer to the sport. I think she's only been

483
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,679
Speaker 4: a pro since like twenty seventeen or something, and Demopolis

484
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 4: lost her UFC debut and it's one three in a row,

485
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 4: looking better and better each one. Carolina Kovokovich, she's one

486
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 4: two straight, but they were against fighters even older than her.

487
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:14,280
Speaker 4: Both I would argue kind of washed fighters that she

488
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 4: fought before that she had dropped five in a row.

489
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,639
Speaker 4: So Cole Kevich kind of seems like a fighter who

490
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 4: when she's fighting in the unofficial Master's division against other

491
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 4: older fighters, can do okay, but really just hasn't done

492
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 4: well against younger, up and coming fighters. I don't love

493
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,200
Speaker 4: the skill set from Demopolis, but at a certain point,

494
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,479
Speaker 4: if fighters just don't have it anymore, it doesn't really

495
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 4: come down to the technical breakdown as much as Demopolis

496
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 4: is gonna be fighting a little bit harder should be

497
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 4: the better athlete at this point in their career, and again,

498
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 4: very new in the sport could have progressed even more

499
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 4: since we've seen her.

500
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:49,639
Speaker 3: All Right, Jets, good work.

501
00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:52,679
Speaker 1: Maybe we think we're all in our thirties not at

502
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 1: this point.

503
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:55,480
Speaker 3: We can all fill out some.

504
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 1: More this weekend, sweating out our bets, or maybe the

505
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 1: sweat will help fill ourselves out more. For Billy Ward, Shawanzerlo,

506
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 1: Brendan Glasheen, that's your UFC Vegas two to seventy three

507
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:10,120
Speaker 1: betting preview here on the Action Network podcast presented by Fandel.

508
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,159
Speaker 1: Find these guys in the Action Network app if they

509
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 1: add anything.

510
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 3: Else for Saturday.

511
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 1: Best of luck with your bets, enjoy the picks, and

512
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 1: we'll see you next week on the Action Network podcast.

513
00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

514
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

515
00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler