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Speaker 2: Well, Disney shareholders have handed CEO Bob Iger a big
Speaker 2: vote of confidence. They elected all of Disney's choices for
Speaker 2: the company's board at a proxy vote, and shareholders rejected
Speaker 2: dissident investor Nelson Peltz's bid for board seats. Beltz's ally,
Speaker 2: former Disney finance chief Jay Russulu, was also rejected. The
Speaker 2: result is a clear cut victory for Iger, who has
Speaker 2: fought to keep Peltz off the board since returning to
Speaker 2: CEO in twenty twenty two. Jamie Lumley, senior analyst at
Speaker 2: Third Bridge, outlines what's next for Iiger after winning the vote.
Speaker 3: Thing that I think investors will really be looking at
Speaker 3: is streaming profitability. The company's planning on finally driving profits
Speaker 3: in fiscal year twenty twenty four. This is coming after
Speaker 3: so many quarters and years of billions and losses in
Speaker 3: this segment, and we've heard Bob Bayer talk about how
Speaker 3: important this streaming transition is for the business. Really making
Speaker 3: sure that they're hitting their mark and achieving their goals.
Speaker 3: That's definitely priority number one as they move beyond this
Speaker 3: proxy fight.
Speaker 2: Jamie Lumley at Third Bridge. Disney has reinstated its dividend
Speaker 2: and has announced plans to invest sixty billion dollars in
Speaker 2: its parks and resorts over the next ten years. It
Speaker 2: also deepened its involvement in the video game business via
Speaker 2: a one point five billion dollar investment in Epic Games.
Speaker 2: Joining US now to discuss this is Bloomberg Intelligence US
Speaker 2: media analyst Gita Rong and Athan Geeta. Can we say
Speaker 2: that this is a victory for both Bob Byer and
Speaker 2: Nelson Pelts. I mean, the former is obvious, the latter,
Speaker 2: Pelts is a billion dollars richer now, and he's also
Speaker 2: made a point. I guess you could say, hater's gonna hate, Well,
Speaker 2: this is billionaire's gonna billion.
Speaker 4: That's a perfect way to put it. And I think
Speaker 4: Nlson Pels is definitely kind of spinning this as a
Speaker 4: win for himself, for his fun triad, and of course
Speaker 4: for Disney shareholders at large. I mean, the stock is
Speaker 4: definitely up fifty percent, and I think in many ways
Speaker 4: he's right. I mean, he is claiming that he has
Speaker 4: been the instrumental catalyst for kind of accelerating this transformation
Speaker 4: at Disney, and I think to largest tent, that's definitely true.
Speaker 1: Gay to take us inside the drama of this story,
Speaker 1: I mean, this is the second time in two years
Speaker 1: that Pelts was trying to get board seats. And the
Speaker 1: other character that's part of the story is Ike pearl Mutter,
Speaker 1: the former chairman of Marvel Entertainment. Disney purchased Marvel for
Speaker 1: a round four billion, and pearl Mutter was able to
Speaker 1: join the leadership team. He was tossed out last year.
Speaker 1: And I'm wondering whether a part of the story had
Speaker 1: to do with a bit of revenge that failed ultimately.
Speaker 1: Is that fair?
Speaker 4: I think that's definitely fair. I mean, we've seen kind
Speaker 4: of Bob Eiger even chronicle this in his autobiography The
Speaker 4: Right of a Lifetime, you know, kind of dealing with
Speaker 4: a very difficult personality like Ike Perlmutter. They always had
Speaker 4: kind of their creative differences. Bob was was forced to
Speaker 4: keep him on after the Marvel acquisition. That turned out
Speaker 4: to be a huge, huge win for of course, for
Speaker 4: Iiger and for Disney. You know, the Marvel movies bringing
Speaker 4: in billions and billions of dollars at the box office,
Speaker 4: but he had to constantly kind of contend with you know,
Speaker 4: Pearl Mutter's temper tantrums. Remember, Perlmutter wanted to get rid
Speaker 4: of Kevin Feige, and Kevin Feigi has kind of been
Speaker 4: the whole creative genius behind Marvel and so many of
Speaker 4: the Disney movies. So it's been a very rough and
Speaker 4: rocky road, you know, between the Disney management team as
Speaker 4: well as Ike pul Mutter. Of course, he was forced out,
Speaker 4: and you know, the way that Eiger and kind of
Speaker 4: the Disney team have fun at is this has been
Speaker 4: kind of this vendetta against Disney by Eike Pelmas. I
Speaker 4: think there's definitely a ring.
Speaker 5: Of truth to that.
Speaker 2: No matter how we got here, the company has been
Speaker 2: benefiting from some of what was suggested by Tryan, and
Speaker 2: you know, we've seen the stock price advance. You mentioned
Speaker 2: that I'm not sure about the succession planning that's still
Speaker 2: out there, and at least just with the streaming strategy
Speaker 2: is something that we probably should discuss. How might the
Speaker 2: streaming strategy change from here and how might it improve?
Speaker 4: Yes, I don't necessarily think that Tryan or pelse offered
Speaker 4: any constructive advice when it came to any strategic visions
Speaker 4: around Disney. Yes, they're absolutely right that the succession plan
Speaker 4: has been botched and botched multiple times, and that is
Speaker 4: something that I think, you know, they're obviously going to
Speaker 4: try and fix and do a good job. They have
Speaker 4: a whole committee just looking into succession right now. James
Speaker 4: Gorman from Morgan Stanley is kind of leading those efforts.
Speaker 4: So I think they definitely do their best there from
Speaker 4: a same perspective. You know, profitability, of course, is the
Speaker 4: big metric. Now it's no longer subscribers. They have multiple levers.
Speaker 4: I think in place to drive streaming profits, they're going
Speaker 4: to increase prices. They're going to make sure that they
Speaker 4: have the best content. They're not going to spend money
Speaker 4: like how they were spending. You know, everybody was spending
Speaker 4: money like drunken sailors. Everybody's now rationalizing output. They're rationalizing costs,
Speaker 4: and they're having many other different initiatives. You know, they
Speaker 4: have a new ad tier, they're integrating Hulu and Disney
Speaker 4: Plus and that's going to save them a whole bunch
Speaker 4: of costs. And then remember they are going to crack
Speaker 4: down on passwords sharing Alla Netflix. So all of this
Speaker 4: is going to you know, add to that bottom.
Speaker 1: Line gata in a moment. I want to get your
Speaker 1: take on this Paramount Global deal with Sherry Redstone and
Speaker 1: sky Dance. We can talk about that in a moment. Obviously,
Speaker 1: Paramount is a company with legacy assets like CBS and
Speaker 1: MTV and to get back to Disney, Disney is still
Speaker 1: holding on to ABC. Do you have a sense of
Speaker 1: what Disney is going to do with the network?
Speaker 4: I think Disney, you know, so there's been a lot
Speaker 4: of on again off against speculation about what they want
Speaker 4: to do with their TV networks.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 4: The Eiger famously last year said that, you know, everything
Speaker 4: is on the table. You know, maybe we don't really
Speaker 4: want to hold on to our TV ass and then
Speaker 4: he kind of walked it back and I think he
Speaker 4: realized that, you know, yes, the TV ascids are in
Speaker 4: secular decline, but at the same token. I mean, they
Speaker 4: do bring in a fair amount of cash and they
Speaker 4: all respond and you know they're going to be instrumental
Speaker 4: for him kind of crafting a digital strategy as well,
Speaker 4: which is exactly what he's doing with ESPN. Remember, he's
Speaker 4: again putting a lot of the linear TV networks into
Speaker 4: this new sports app that they're creating, and ABC is
Speaker 4: going to be part of that as well, comes out
Speaker 4: a little bit later this year along with Warner Brothers, Discovery,
Speaker 4: and Foxy. So they have that in the works. You know,
Speaker 4: they have the new ESPN digital strategy in the works.
Speaker 4: So I think they're really kind of trying to orchestrate
Speaker 4: this transition from linear to digital in as painless and
Speaker 4: as smooth way as possible.
Speaker 2: And just that one other area that we had raised
Speaker 2: a few moments ago, succession. What's the latest there.
Speaker 4: So they do have their four internal candidates who are
Speaker 4: all seen as possible successors. Again, remember each of these candidates,
Speaker 4: whether you know it's from Parks or from the film division,
Speaker 4: or the TV division or even ESPN, they all have
Speaker 4: specialized expertise. The problem for you know, the Disney succession
Speaker 4: plan is that you need somebody who has not just
Speaker 4: specialized expertise, but also broad expertise. And that's really going
Speaker 4: to be the challenge here. So I think they're going
Speaker 4: to have to have multiple successors kind of groom them
Speaker 4: and see who really kind of is up for the challenge.
Speaker 1: So let's get to Paramount Global, because we had some
Speaker 1: breaking news later in New York today Sherry Redstone apparently
Speaker 1: with a tentative deal to sell her stake in Paramount Global.
Speaker 1: She is the controlling interest in National Amusements. In National
Speaker 1: has about seventy seven percent of voting shares for Paramount.
Speaker 1: Skydance Media looks to be the buyer take on this.
Speaker 4: I mean again, this has been going on now for
Speaker 4: almost four or five months. Uh so they've been engaged
Speaker 4: in some kind of discussions with really all different types
Speaker 4: of buyers. Of course, sky Dance has been the one
Speaker 4: that's been there from the very beginning. Remember Skydance Media
Speaker 4: is this film studio that is controlled by David Ellison,
Speaker 4: who is the son of Larry Ellison, and sky Dancer
Speaker 4: has had a lot of you know, collaboration with par
Speaker 4: around in the past. They almost have this ten year relationship.
Speaker 4: They worked on movies together like you know, top Gun Maverick.
Speaker 4: So so there has been you know, a lot of
Speaker 4: exchange from on both sides, and so they feel like,
Speaker 4: you know, it would be it would be kind of
Speaker 4: the perfect fit. And I think in many ways Sharry
Speaker 4: Redstone wants to deal with sky Dance because again this is,
Speaker 4: you know, a known devil better than an unknown angel
Speaker 4: kind of thing.
Speaker 2: So does this does this sort of signal uh, the
Speaker 2: exit of Sherry Redstone.
Speaker 4: Ultimately, it's still going to be very, very complex and
Speaker 4: very messy. She does have, as you pointed out, a
Speaker 4: close to eighty percent voting interest, about a ten percent
Speaker 4: economic interest. We're not yet clear exactly what Skydance has
Speaker 4: offered her for both her economic stake as well as
Speaker 4: her controlling voting stake in the company. So all of
Speaker 4: that has to be worked out. And then at the
Speaker 4: end of all of this, the ultimate goal is that
Speaker 4: sky Dance has not just to control National Amusements, but
Speaker 4: then has to somehow get complete control of paramounts. It's
Speaker 4: kind of this very very messy, complex two step process.
Speaker 2: Gita, thanks so much for joining us as Bloomberg Intelligence
Speaker 2: is Gita, Rang and hast.
Speaker 1: Let's take a closer look at what's going on in
Speaker 1: markets at the moment with our own Mark Cranfield is
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's m Live strategist. He joins us from our studios
Speaker 1: and singer hard to believe. At the end of last year,
Speaker 1: the market was looking at one hundred and fifty basis
Speaker 1: points in cuts from the Fed in calendar twenty four.
Speaker 1: I mean that was super aggressive, well beyond double in
Speaker 1: fact what the Fed was predicting. And here we are
Speaker 1: now wondering whether we're going to get one rate cut.
Speaker 1: What the heck is going on here?
Speaker 7: Mark, Well, what you can really see here is a
Speaker 7: disconnect between Jerme Power and the rest of the Federal
Speaker 7: Reserve to some extent. So back in late November early December,
Speaker 7: Drone Power appeared to be really optimistic that the FED
Speaker 7: was on the path, that the inflation was going to
Speaker 7: hear his targets, everything was going to go right, and
Speaker 7: there'll be early rate cuts. And then the data came
Speaker 7: in and set everybody back. And you've heard a whole
Speaker 7: variety of Federal Reserve speakers who pushed back against the
Speaker 7: idea that not only three intra rate cuts is too many,
Speaker 7: but maybe we only need one this year, As you
Speaker 7: were saying, mister Bostic is the clear front runner in
Speaker 7: the In the one case.
Speaker 2: I don't really worry too much about this kind of
Speaker 2: stuff because to me, the economy is leading. Really the FED,
Speaker 2: you know, it was talking about possibly doing more rate cuts,
Speaker 2: but it's stipulated three in the coming year. And no
Speaker 2: matter what they're saying, they're they're they're saying that they
Speaker 2: will follow the economy. They will be waiting on the data.
Speaker 2: And if you think about it, normally we think of
Speaker 2: the FED leading, but the Fed is really following, and
Speaker 2: the market's not really leading either. The market is also
Speaker 2: following the economy. The economy is surprising all of us.
Speaker 7: Well, they've said before that their data dependent finally looks
Speaker 7: as though investors are believing it, having having lost money
Speaker 7: by being too aggressive on the rate cuts in the
Speaker 7: first place, that they finally can conclude you that, okay,
Speaker 7: maybe we really should watch the data and react accordingly
Speaker 7: to that. But obviously different asset classes are viewing this
Speaker 7: in different ways. So the bond market is getting used
Speaker 7: to the idea that it's in a bit of a
Speaker 7: trading range, not really going anywhere for the time being.
Speaker 7: And yet the equity market is in a much stronger
Speaker 7: position where it knows that interest rate cuts are coming eventually,
Speaker 7: it's very confident that interest rates won't go up again,
Speaker 7: so that's much more important. And earnings are in a
Speaker 7: good situation. The underlying economy is doing very well, so
Speaker 7: all of that is favorable for the US cor and
Speaker 7: the US dollars fairly firm as well, which again helps
Speaker 7: as well. So different asset classes will respond in different ways,
Speaker 7: But the bond market for now is going to have
Speaker 7: to get used to probably sideways trading for quite a while.
Speaker 1: Yet you were talking about the dollar there. Year we
Speaker 1: pulled back a little bit in New York trading, we
Speaker 1: weakened against the majors. But I think that to the
Speaker 1: tune that we were singing at the end of last
Speaker 1: year with much lower interest rates, I think guys in
Speaker 1: the foreign exchange really had to reverse their bets that
Speaker 1: we're going to see a great deal of dollar weakness.
Speaker 1: That hasn't happened so far this year. But when you
Speaker 1: look at some of the important crosses, and I'm thinking
Speaker 1: particularly dollar yen. Brian was referencing a commentary from a
Speaker 1: former member of the boj board talking about the fact
Speaker 1: that now the heavy lifting has been done at the
Speaker 1: March meeting, where we've moved away from the massive stimulus
Speaker 1: program on the part of what the Bank of Japan
Speaker 1: had been doing, maybe there's no longer an urgent need
Speaker 1: to adjust further. Would you say that's a fair statement,
Speaker 1: and you know we're going to see maybe stasis from
Speaker 1: the Bank of Japan.
Speaker 7: I suspect they have more interest rate hikes to come
Speaker 7: this year from the Bank of Japan. But in terms
Speaker 7: of the US dollar, next week is probably going to
Speaker 7: be a pretty big moment for the dollar. If we
Speaker 7: get past non farm payrolls at the end of this
Speaker 7: week and DOLLI yen still hasn't risen above one hundred
Speaker 7: and fifty two, it may well be that they will
Speaker 7: just start the beginning of a down trend for the
Speaker 7: dollar because people will lose patients. There are very very
Speaker 7: big short positions against the yen, which have also prompted
Speaker 7: strong dollar positions elsewhere. If people don't see satisfaction quickly
Speaker 7: in achieving what they want in a strong dollar, will
Speaker 7: they will go the other way. They will start cutting
Speaker 7: those positions and they'll look for the next trend. It's
Speaker 7: a very big time coming up for the dollar.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think a lot of investors would look forward
Speaker 2: to that dollar weekening a little. Another currency besides the
Speaker 2: en that's been weak against the greenback is the Chinese
Speaker 2: you want, So let's switch the discussion to China briefly.
Speaker 2: Doug sent me a story which is quite interesting. Ray
Speaker 2: Dalio says he's sticking with China. What do you think, Mark,
Speaker 2: Is that a political call or is that a smart
Speaker 2: business and finance call.
Speaker 7: I think if you're a good equity picker and you're
Speaker 7: looking at China, I'm sure your bounds will be able
Speaker 7: to find ways to invest and to make decent returns
Speaker 7: because the Chinese government is all the measures it's doing
Speaker 7: art to support Chinese based companies to improve the Chinese economy.
Speaker 7: So most likely there will be decent returns to be
Speaker 7: found among good companies in China itself. The tricky part
Speaker 7: for a lot of investors is the Hong Kong side
Speaker 7: of it, because a lot of people like to use
Speaker 7: Hong Kong as a way to play China. That might
Speaker 7: be much more complicated because of the way in which
Speaker 7: the hate shares are very cheap compared to the on
Speaker 7: shore and they may stay that way for a long time.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the big numbers in the week ahead for China
Speaker 1: will be the inflation numbers. And one of the things
Speaker 1: I think for the market right now is whether or
Speaker 1: not we're going to see a prolonged period of deflation
Speaker 1: in the mainland economy. Market. It's always a pleasure. Thanks
Speaker 1: for making time to chat with us from the Lion City.
Speaker 1: It's Mark Cranfield, Bloomberg m Live Strategistic.
Speaker 2: Well, let's take a look at markets now with Belita own,
Speaker 2: chairman at Dalton Investments. Blita, thanks very much for joining you.
Speaker 2: I want to start with Jay Powell and I want
Speaker 2: to play a clip from his speech a little bit
Speaker 2: earlier and then get your response to it. Powell did
Speaker 2: note the pickup in jobs and inflation, but he reaffirmed
Speaker 2: that the Fed wants to stay patient and watch the data, and,
Speaker 2: while perhaps not intending to pal laid out the bulls
Speaker 2: base case.
Speaker 8: But these recent data do not, however, materially change the
Speaker 8: overall picture, which continues to be one of solid growth,
Speaker 8: a strong but rebalancing labor market, and inflation moving down
Speaker 8: toward two percent on a sometimes bumpy path.
Speaker 2: So the point is that he makes the point sort
Speaker 2: of the bulls point, which is, look, don't overthink this.
Speaker 2: Things are pretty good. The economy is doing well, profits
Speaker 2: have been increasing, and inflation is coming down, while agnolaging
Speaker 2: that it did pop up a little bit in January
Speaker 2: and Febry. Do you support that view or do you
Speaker 2: think he's all wet?
Speaker 9: I think pal is right on track.
Speaker 5: It's very much the case that the US economy is
Speaker 5: strong and that we have seen substantial improvement in the
Speaker 5: inflation numbers. My only caution is that I believe it's
Speaker 5: much harder to get it much further down than where
Speaker 5: it is currently, because we live in a world where
Speaker 5: there are hot wars going on and unforeseen events of
Speaker 5: the unforeseen events that could disrupt supply chains.
Speaker 9: So you've got that to worry.
Speaker 6: About, and that's you know, in recent memory, and even
Speaker 6: further back from that, in recent memory, we've already seen
Speaker 6: the disruption of the Red Sea, and then we've also seen,
Speaker 6: you know, the impact going further back two years or
Speaker 6: so of Russia's invasion on the grain market. So with
Speaker 6: these tensions running so high, it's difficult to be truly
Speaker 6: confident that the US and the numbers are insulated from
Speaker 6: you know, adverse surprises. But the points that he makes,
Speaker 6: I think is that the economy is strong, and so
Speaker 6: there seems to be, know, Harry, whatsoever to ease at
Speaker 6: this point. Why stoke an economy that's already strong and
Speaker 6: increase the odds that inflation will research?
Speaker 1: You know, I'm listening to you, and I'm wondering whether
Speaker 1: or not there are people around the globe that feel
Speaker 1: the same way. And that's one reason to favor the US.
Speaker 1: Brian has been talking a lot about how well the
Speaker 1: market's been holding up as being kind of a response
Speaker 1: to the performance of the overall American economy. I get that.
Speaker 1: I don't disagree, but I'm wondering, given everything that you
Speaker 1: just laid out in terms of uncertainty and risk, whether
Speaker 1: you want to kind of be defensive and put you know,
Speaker 1: risk assets to work only in the United States. Maybe
Speaker 1: the expense of other markets. Is that a fair statement?
Speaker 1: Maybe Japan? You would include Japan in that.
Speaker 9: I would definitely include Japan.
Speaker 6: Japan is cheap, and Japan is at a point in
Speaker 6: time where many things are going right and it looks
Speaker 6: like it's about to take off. So Japan spent the
Speaker 6: last nine years working on corporate governance reform. We're finally
Speaker 6: seeing the results of that through companies giving back returns
Speaker 6: to shareholders, either through dividends or share buybacks. Also, we're
Speaker 6: seeing an increase in unsolicited bids for companies, which is
Speaker 6: very unusual in Japan, and I can't remember when the
Speaker 6: first one was, but it was just no more than
Speaker 6: to say, two three years ago. And the pressure from
Speaker 6: the TSE is quite heavy on managements to respond response
Speaker 6: responsibly to these take up of bids. In the past,
Speaker 6: it wasn't uncommon to just simply ignore them. But now
Speaker 6: there is a list, if you like, of companies that
Speaker 6: are doing the right thing according to TSSE reforms, and
Speaker 6: that includes being responsible in terms of taking seriously bids
Speaker 6: from you know, investors or other companies to buy a
Speaker 6: company at a much higher price. These events and the
Speaker 6: encouragement of the TSE is really propelling valuations upwards. So
Speaker 6: even though we've just seen finally a new high in
Speaker 6: Japan after the nineteen eighty nine you know peak and
Speaker 6: then collapse TACON thirty what is it, thirty four years?
Speaker 6: Is it to get back there, and we've just passed
Speaker 6: forty thousand on the nick A, and I think even
Speaker 6: betadtes are ahead.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's great to be diversified, and Japan's offering US investors,
Speaker 2: for instance, great opportunities. Europe has done pretty well too.
Speaker 2: The AI companies involved in that have rallied a lot,
Speaker 2: and just here in the last say three or four months,
Speaker 2: we've seen a lot of ketchup being done by cyclical
Speaker 2: oriented companies, and so industrials and materials and financials have
Speaker 2: rallied pretty well. And the other thing that's kind of
Speaker 2: great about the environment is that you can make some
Speaker 2: bets on equities, which are obviously more risky assets, all
Speaker 2: the while collecting five percent coupon and the bonds that
Speaker 2: you hold. No, that wasn't always the case. You were
Speaker 2: forced into the equity market because you're getting nothing on
Speaker 2: bond deals one percent or so. And that remains the
Speaker 2: case in Japan. So you know, yeah, I'm curious how
Speaker 2: you are sort of diversified big picture, So we are, frankly.
Speaker 6: We're not particularly bullish about the US simply because the
Speaker 6: valuations are so high. Being value investors, we invest one
Speaker 6: company at a time and you know, for US, it's
Speaker 6: easier to focus on companies in Asia because they are
Speaker 6: a lot cheaper, so they provide you a margin of safety.
Speaker 6: So in addition to Japan, there are other parts of
Speaker 6: Asia that we think are quite attractive.
Speaker 9: One of them, you know, clearly.
Speaker 6: Being India, and Indian valuations are not cheap even by
Speaker 6: US standards, but the growth of earnings among Indian companies
Speaker 6: is extremely high. I was looking at a recent table
Speaker 6: that showed that the earnings growth is something like two
Speaker 6: and a half times that in the US. So that's
Speaker 6: the case, surely you would want to accord a higher multiple.
Speaker 9: To that growth in earnings.
Speaker 6: And then also if you look at some other countries
Speaker 6: like Korea for instance, where you have fantastic companies, and
Speaker 6: the problem with Korea, what's been called the Korean discount,
Speaker 6: is one of governance. They've been so poor in terms
Speaker 6: of treating minority shareholders.
Speaker 9: You know fairly that we've come to a point where.
Speaker 6: The Korean government sees what's happened in Japan that's successful
Speaker 6: this long period of corporate governance reform, and they want
Speaker 6: to do the same thing in Korea because they have
Speaker 6: the same exact problems which is an Asian population, and
Speaker 6: not enough returns on their stock market. So I think
Speaker 6: there are you know, good opportunities in Korea as well.
Speaker 1: Believed to before we let you go thirty seconds on China,
Speaker 1: yes or no.
Speaker 9: Not for us.
Speaker 6: China's cheap, but it's a difficult place for us because
Speaker 6: we don't see entrepreneurs taking care of minority shareholders.
Speaker 2: All right, Belita, thanks very much for your insights. To
Speaker 2: own chairman of Dalton Investments.
Speaker 1: This has been the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you
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