1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:10,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 1: Daybreak Aisia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. You can join Brian 3 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 1: Curtis and myself for the stories, making news and moving 4 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:19,560 Speaker 1: markets in the APAC region. You can subscribe to the 5 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: show anywhere you get your podcast and always on Bloomberg Radio, 6 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. 7 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 2: Well, Disney shareholders have handed CEO Bob Iger a big 8 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 2: vote of confidence. They elected all of Disney's choices for 9 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 2: the company's board at a proxy vote, and shareholders rejected 10 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 2: dissident investor Nelson Peltz's bid for board seats. Beltz's ally, 11 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:45,879 Speaker 2: former Disney finance chief Jay Russulu, was also rejected. The 12 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:48,319 Speaker 2: result is a clear cut victory for Iger, who has 13 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:51,159 Speaker 2: fought to keep Peltz off the board since returning to 14 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 2: CEO in twenty twenty two. Jamie Lumley, senior analyst at 15 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 2: Third Bridge, outlines what's next for Iiger after winning the vote. 16 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 3: Thing that I think investors will really be looking at 17 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:07,399 Speaker 3: is streaming profitability. The company's planning on finally driving profits 18 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 3: in fiscal year twenty twenty four. This is coming after 19 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 3: so many quarters and years of billions and losses in 20 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 3: this segment, and we've heard Bob Bayer talk about how 21 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:19,399 Speaker 3: important this streaming transition is for the business. Really making 22 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 3: sure that they're hitting their mark and achieving their goals. 23 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 3: That's definitely priority number one as they move beyond this 24 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 3: proxy fight. 25 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 2: Jamie Lumley at Third Bridge. Disney has reinstated its dividend 26 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 2: and has announced plans to invest sixty billion dollars in 27 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 2: its parks and resorts over the next ten years. It 28 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 2: also deepened its involvement in the video game business via 29 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 2: a one point five billion dollar investment in Epic Games. 30 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 2: Joining US now to discuss this is Bloomberg Intelligence US 31 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 2: media analyst Gita Rong and Athan Geeta. Can we say 32 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 2: that this is a victory for both Bob Byer and 33 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 2: Nelson Pelts. I mean, the former is obvious, the latter, 34 00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 2: Pelts is a billion dollars richer now, and he's also 35 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 2: made a point. I guess you could say, hater's gonna hate, Well, 36 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 2: this is billionaire's gonna billion. 37 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 4: That's a perfect way to put it. And I think 38 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,800 Speaker 4: Nlson Pels is definitely kind of spinning this as a 39 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 4: win for himself, for his fun triad, and of course 40 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 4: for Disney shareholders at large. I mean, the stock is 41 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:24,640 Speaker 4: definitely up fifty percent, and I think in many ways 42 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 4: he's right. I mean, he is claiming that he has 43 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:33,239 Speaker 4: been the instrumental catalyst for kind of accelerating this transformation 44 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 4: at Disney, and I think to largest tent, that's definitely true. 45 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 1: Gay to take us inside the drama of this story, 46 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:42,400 Speaker 1: I mean, this is the second time in two years 47 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,920 Speaker 1: that Pelts was trying to get board seats. And the 48 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 1: other character that's part of the story is Ike pearl Mutter, 49 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:53,360 Speaker 1: the former chairman of Marvel Entertainment. Disney purchased Marvel for 50 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 1: a round four billion, and pearl Mutter was able to 51 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 1: join the leadership team. He was tossed out last year. 52 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 1: And I'm wondering whether a part of the story had 53 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:04,799 Speaker 1: to do with a bit of revenge that failed ultimately. 54 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: Is that fair? 55 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 4: I think that's definitely fair. I mean, we've seen kind 56 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:12,880 Speaker 4: of Bob Eiger even chronicle this in his autobiography The 57 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 4: Right of a Lifetime, you know, kind of dealing with 58 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 4: a very difficult personality like Ike Perlmutter. They always had 59 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 4: kind of their creative differences. Bob was was forced to 60 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:25,920 Speaker 4: keep him on after the Marvel acquisition. That turned out 61 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:28,400 Speaker 4: to be a huge, huge win for of course, for 62 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 4: Iiger and for Disney. You know, the Marvel movies bringing 63 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:33,919 Speaker 4: in billions and billions of dollars at the box office, 64 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 4: but he had to constantly kind of contend with you know, 65 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 4: Pearl Mutter's temper tantrums. Remember, Perlmutter wanted to get rid 66 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 4: of Kevin Feige, and Kevin Feigi has kind of been 67 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 4: the whole creative genius behind Marvel and so many of 68 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 4: the Disney movies. So it's been a very rough and 69 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 4: rocky road, you know, between the Disney management team as 70 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 4: well as Ike pul Mutter. Of course, he was forced out, 71 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 4: and you know, the way that Eiger and kind of 72 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 4: the Disney team have fun at is this has been 73 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 4: kind of this vendetta against Disney by Eike Pelmas. I 74 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 4: think there's definitely a ring. 75 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 5: Of truth to that. 76 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 2: No matter how we got here, the company has been 77 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 2: benefiting from some of what was suggested by Tryan, and 78 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:20,719 Speaker 2: you know, we've seen the stock price advance. You mentioned 79 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 2: that I'm not sure about the succession planning that's still 80 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 2: out there, and at least just with the streaming strategy 81 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:29,279 Speaker 2: is something that we probably should discuss. How might the 82 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:33,239 Speaker 2: streaming strategy change from here and how might it improve? 83 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 4: Yes, I don't necessarily think that Tryan or pelse offered 84 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:42,039 Speaker 4: any constructive advice when it came to any strategic visions 85 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 4: around Disney. Yes, they're absolutely right that the succession plan 86 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 4: has been botched and botched multiple times, and that is 87 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 4: something that I think, you know, they're obviously going to 88 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 4: try and fix and do a good job. They have 89 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:55,840 Speaker 4: a whole committee just looking into succession right now. James 90 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:58,480 Speaker 4: Gorman from Morgan Stanley is kind of leading those efforts. 91 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:02,800 Speaker 4: So I think they definitely do their best there from 92 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 4: a same perspective. You know, profitability, of course, is the 93 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 4: big metric. Now it's no longer subscribers. They have multiple levers. 94 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 4: I think in place to drive streaming profits, they're going 95 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 4: to increase prices. They're going to make sure that they 96 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 4: have the best content. They're not going to spend money 97 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:21,479 Speaker 4: like how they were spending. You know, everybody was spending 98 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 4: money like drunken sailors. Everybody's now rationalizing output. They're rationalizing costs, 99 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:28,480 Speaker 4: and they're having many other different initiatives. You know, they 100 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 4: have a new ad tier, they're integrating Hulu and Disney 101 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 4: Plus and that's going to save them a whole bunch 102 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 4: of costs. And then remember they are going to crack 103 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 4: down on passwords sharing Alla Netflix. So all of this 104 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:41,800 Speaker 4: is going to you know, add to that bottom. 105 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 1: Line gata in a moment. I want to get your 106 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:47,719 Speaker 1: take on this Paramount Global deal with Sherry Redstone and 107 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 1: sky Dance. We can talk about that in a moment. Obviously, 108 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:54,039 Speaker 1: Paramount is a company with legacy assets like CBS and 109 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 1: MTV and to get back to Disney, Disney is still 110 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:00,080 Speaker 1: holding on to ABC. Do you have a sense of 111 00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 1: what Disney is going to do with the network? 112 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:05,159 Speaker 4: I think Disney, you know, so there's been a lot 113 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 4: of on again off against speculation about what they want 114 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:09,279 Speaker 4: to do with their TV networks. 115 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 6: You know. 116 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:13,120 Speaker 4: The Eiger famously last year said that, you know, everything 117 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:15,040 Speaker 4: is on the table. You know, maybe we don't really 118 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:16,720 Speaker 4: want to hold on to our TV ass and then 119 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 4: he kind of walked it back and I think he 120 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 4: realized that, you know, yes, the TV ascids are in 121 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:23,800 Speaker 4: secular decline, but at the same token. I mean, they 122 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 4: do bring in a fair amount of cash and they 123 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 4: all respond and you know they're going to be instrumental 124 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 4: for him kind of crafting a digital strategy as well, 125 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:34,480 Speaker 4: which is exactly what he's doing with ESPN. Remember, he's 126 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:36,920 Speaker 4: again putting a lot of the linear TV networks into 127 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:40,720 Speaker 4: this new sports app that they're creating, and ABC is 128 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 4: going to be part of that as well, comes out 129 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:46,840 Speaker 4: a little bit later this year along with Warner Brothers, Discovery, 130 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:49,719 Speaker 4: and Foxy. So they have that in the works. You know, 131 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:52,560 Speaker 4: they have the new ESPN digital strategy in the works. 132 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:55,920 Speaker 4: So I think they're really kind of trying to orchestrate 133 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 4: this transition from linear to digital in as painless and 134 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 4: as smooth way as possible. 135 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 2: And just that one other area that we had raised 136 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 2: a few moments ago, succession. What's the latest there. 137 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 4: So they do have their four internal candidates who are 138 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 4: all seen as possible successors. Again, remember each of these candidates, 139 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 4: whether you know it's from Parks or from the film division, 140 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 4: or the TV division or even ESPN, they all have 141 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 4: specialized expertise. The problem for you know, the Disney succession 142 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 4: plan is that you need somebody who has not just 143 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 4: specialized expertise, but also broad expertise. And that's really going 144 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 4: to be the challenge here. So I think they're going 145 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 4: to have to have multiple successors kind of groom them 146 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 4: and see who really kind of is up for the challenge. 147 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 1: So let's get to Paramount Global, because we had some 148 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 1: breaking news later in New York today Sherry Redstone apparently 149 00:07:46,040 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 1: with a tentative deal to sell her stake in Paramount Global. 150 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 1: She is the controlling interest in National Amusements. In National 151 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 1: has about seventy seven percent of voting shares for Paramount. 152 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:00,680 Speaker 1: Skydance Media looks to be the buyer take on this. 153 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 4: I mean again, this has been going on now for 154 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:08,680 Speaker 4: almost four or five months. Uh so they've been engaged 155 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 4: in some kind of discussions with really all different types 156 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 4: of buyers. Of course, sky Dance has been the one 157 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:17,400 Speaker 4: that's been there from the very beginning. Remember Skydance Media 158 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:21,080 Speaker 4: is this film studio that is controlled by David Ellison, 159 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 4: who is the son of Larry Ellison, and sky Dancer 160 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 4: has had a lot of you know, collaboration with par 161 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 4: around in the past. They almost have this ten year relationship. 162 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 4: They worked on movies together like you know, top Gun Maverick. 163 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 4: So so there has been you know, a lot of 164 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:41,800 Speaker 4: exchange from on both sides, and so they feel like, 165 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:43,199 Speaker 4: you know, it would be it would be kind of 166 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 4: the perfect fit. And I think in many ways Sharry 167 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 4: Redstone wants to deal with sky Dance because again this is, 168 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 4: you know, a known devil better than an unknown angel 169 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 4: kind of thing. 170 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:56,920 Speaker 2: So does this does this sort of signal uh, the 171 00:08:57,000 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 2: exit of Sherry Redstone. 172 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:03,720 Speaker 4: Ultimately, it's still going to be very, very complex and 173 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 4: very messy. She does have, as you pointed out, a 174 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:10,720 Speaker 4: close to eighty percent voting interest, about a ten percent 175 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 4: economic interest. We're not yet clear exactly what Skydance has 176 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 4: offered her for both her economic stake as well as 177 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:24,440 Speaker 4: her controlling voting stake in the company. So all of 178 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 4: that has to be worked out. And then at the 179 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 4: end of all of this, the ultimate goal is that 180 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 4: sky Dance has not just to control National Amusements, but 181 00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 4: then has to somehow get complete control of paramounts. It's 182 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:39,800 Speaker 4: kind of this very very messy, complex two step process. 183 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 2: Gita, thanks so much for joining us as Bloomberg Intelligence 184 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 2: is Gita, Rang and hast. 185 00:09:51,440 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 1: Let's take a closer look at what's going on in 186 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:56,320 Speaker 1: markets at the moment with our own Mark Cranfield is 187 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:59,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's m Live strategist. He joins us from our studios 188 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:02,440 Speaker 1: and singer hard to believe. At the end of last year, 189 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 1: the market was looking at one hundred and fifty basis 190 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:08,360 Speaker 1: points in cuts from the Fed in calendar twenty four. 191 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: I mean that was super aggressive, well beyond double in 192 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:14,079 Speaker 1: fact what the Fed was predicting. And here we are 193 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 1: now wondering whether we're going to get one rate cut. 194 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 1: What the heck is going on here? 195 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:23,320 Speaker 7: Mark, Well, what you can really see here is a 196 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 7: disconnect between Jerme Power and the rest of the Federal 197 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 7: Reserve to some extent. So back in late November early December, 198 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:41,080 Speaker 7: Drone Power appeared to be really optimistic that the FED 199 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 7: was on the path, that the inflation was going to 200 00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 7: hear his targets, everything was going to go right, and 201 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 7: there'll be early rate cuts. And then the data came 202 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 7: in and set everybody back. And you've heard a whole 203 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:57,520 Speaker 7: variety of Federal Reserve speakers who pushed back against the 204 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 7: idea that not only three intra rate cuts is too many, 205 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:03,840 Speaker 7: but maybe we only need one this year, As you 206 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 7: were saying, mister Bostic is the clear front runner in 207 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 7: the In the one case. 208 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:10,880 Speaker 2: I don't really worry too much about this kind of 209 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:15,560 Speaker 2: stuff because to me, the economy is leading. Really the FED, 210 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:20,520 Speaker 2: you know, it was talking about possibly doing more rate cuts, 211 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 2: but it's stipulated three in the coming year. And no 212 00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 2: matter what they're saying, they're they're they're saying that they 213 00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 2: will follow the economy. They will be waiting on the data. 214 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 2: And if you think about it, normally we think of 215 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:37,679 Speaker 2: the FED leading, but the Fed is really following, and 216 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:40,559 Speaker 2: the market's not really leading either. The market is also 217 00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:43,679 Speaker 2: following the economy. The economy is surprising all of us. 218 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:49,200 Speaker 7: Well, they've said before that their data dependent finally looks 219 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 7: as though investors are believing it, having having lost money 220 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 7: by being too aggressive on the rate cuts in the 221 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,440 Speaker 7: first place, that they finally can conclude you that, okay, 222 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 7: maybe we really should watch the data and react accordingly 223 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:06,959 Speaker 7: to that. But obviously different asset classes are viewing this 224 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:10,679 Speaker 7: in different ways. So the bond market is getting used 225 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 7: to the idea that it's in a bit of a 226 00:12:12,160 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 7: trading range, not really going anywhere for the time being. 227 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:18,319 Speaker 7: And yet the equity market is in a much stronger 228 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:22,959 Speaker 7: position where it knows that interest rate cuts are coming eventually, 229 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,160 Speaker 7: it's very confident that interest rates won't go up again, 230 00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 7: so that's much more important. And earnings are in a 231 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 7: good situation. The underlying economy is doing very well, so 232 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 7: all of that is favorable for the US cor and 233 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 7: the US dollars fairly firm as well, which again helps 234 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 7: as well. So different asset classes will respond in different ways, 235 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 7: But the bond market for now is going to have 236 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:51,080 Speaker 7: to get used to probably sideways trading for quite a while. 237 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 1: Yet you were talking about the dollar there. Year we 238 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 1: pulled back a little bit in New York trading, we 239 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:58,280 Speaker 1: weakened against the majors. But I think that to the 240 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 1: tune that we were singing at the end of last 241 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:04,319 Speaker 1: year with much lower interest rates, I think guys in 242 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: the foreign exchange really had to reverse their bets that 243 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 1: we're going to see a great deal of dollar weakness. 244 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 1: That hasn't happened so far this year. But when you 245 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:14,320 Speaker 1: look at some of the important crosses, and I'm thinking 246 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:18,600 Speaker 1: particularly dollar yen. Brian was referencing a commentary from a 247 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 1: former member of the boj board talking about the fact 248 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:23,840 Speaker 1: that now the heavy lifting has been done at the 249 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:27,559 Speaker 1: March meeting, where we've moved away from the massive stimulus 250 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 1: program on the part of what the Bank of Japan 251 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:33,240 Speaker 1: had been doing, maybe there's no longer an urgent need 252 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:36,360 Speaker 1: to adjust further. Would you say that's a fair statement, 253 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 1: and you know we're going to see maybe stasis from 254 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:39,680 Speaker 1: the Bank of Japan. 255 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 7: I suspect they have more interest rate hikes to come 256 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 7: this year from the Bank of Japan. But in terms 257 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:49,200 Speaker 7: of the US dollar, next week is probably going to 258 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 7: be a pretty big moment for the dollar. If we 259 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:55,880 Speaker 7: get past non farm payrolls at the end of this 260 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 7: week and DOLLI yen still hasn't risen above one hundred 261 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 7: and fifty two, it may well be that they will 262 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:04,640 Speaker 7: just start the beginning of a down trend for the 263 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 7: dollar because people will lose patients. There are very very 264 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:12,319 Speaker 7: big short positions against the yen, which have also prompted 265 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 7: strong dollar positions elsewhere. If people don't see satisfaction quickly 266 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 7: in achieving what they want in a strong dollar, will 267 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:23,640 Speaker 7: they will go the other way. They will start cutting 268 00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 7: those positions and they'll look for the next trend. It's 269 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 7: a very big time coming up for the dollar. 270 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think a lot of investors would look forward 271 00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:35,600 Speaker 2: to that dollar weekening a little. Another currency besides the 272 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 2: en that's been weak against the greenback is the Chinese 273 00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:42,160 Speaker 2: you want, So let's switch the discussion to China briefly. 274 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:44,240 Speaker 2: Doug sent me a story which is quite interesting. Ray 275 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:48,320 Speaker 2: Dalio says he's sticking with China. What do you think, Mark, 276 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 2: Is that a political call or is that a smart 277 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 2: business and finance call. 278 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 7: I think if you're a good equity picker and you're 279 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 7: looking at China, I'm sure your bounds will be able 280 00:14:59,880 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 7: to find ways to invest and to make decent returns 281 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 7: because the Chinese government is all the measures it's doing 282 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 7: art to support Chinese based companies to improve the Chinese economy. 283 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:15,120 Speaker 7: So most likely there will be decent returns to be 284 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 7: found among good companies in China itself. The tricky part 285 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 7: for a lot of investors is the Hong Kong side 286 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:23,640 Speaker 7: of it, because a lot of people like to use 287 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 7: Hong Kong as a way to play China. That might 288 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 7: be much more complicated because of the way in which 289 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 7: the hate shares are very cheap compared to the on 290 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 7: shore and they may stay that way for a long time. 291 00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, the big numbers in the week ahead for China 292 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 1: will be the inflation numbers. And one of the things 293 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 1: I think for the market right now is whether or 294 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 1: not we're going to see a prolonged period of deflation 295 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 1: in the mainland economy. Market. It's always a pleasure. Thanks 296 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 1: for making time to chat with us from the Lion City. 297 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:56,160 Speaker 1: It's Mark Cranfield, Bloomberg m Live Strategistic. 298 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 2: Well, let's take a look at markets now with Belita own, 299 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 2: chairman at Dalton Investments. Blita, thanks very much for joining you. 300 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:11,880 Speaker 2: I want to start with Jay Powell and I want 301 00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 2: to play a clip from his speech a little bit 302 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 2: earlier and then get your response to it. Powell did 303 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 2: note the pickup in jobs and inflation, but he reaffirmed 304 00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:25,880 Speaker 2: that the Fed wants to stay patient and watch the data, and, 305 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:29,760 Speaker 2: while perhaps not intending to pal laid out the bulls 306 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 2: base case. 307 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 8: But these recent data do not, however, materially change the 308 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 8: overall picture, which continues to be one of solid growth, 309 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:41,480 Speaker 8: a strong but rebalancing labor market, and inflation moving down 310 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 8: toward two percent on a sometimes bumpy path. 311 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 2: So the point is that he makes the point sort 312 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 2: of the bulls point, which is, look, don't overthink this. 313 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:55,080 Speaker 2: Things are pretty good. The economy is doing well, profits 314 00:16:55,240 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 2: have been increasing, and inflation is coming down, while agnolaging 315 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 2: that it did pop up a little bit in January 316 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 2: and Febry. Do you support that view or do you 317 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 2: think he's all wet? 318 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:08,960 Speaker 9: I think pal is right on track. 319 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:12,800 Speaker 5: It's very much the case that the US economy is 320 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 5: strong and that we have seen substantial improvement in the 321 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:22,120 Speaker 5: inflation numbers. My only caution is that I believe it's 322 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:25,200 Speaker 5: much harder to get it much further down than where 323 00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 5: it is currently, because we live in a world where 324 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:33,240 Speaker 5: there are hot wars going on and unforeseen events of 325 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 5: the unforeseen events that could disrupt supply chains. 326 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 9: So you've got that to worry. 327 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:40,400 Speaker 6: About, and that's you know, in recent memory, and even 328 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 6: further back from that, in recent memory, we've already seen 329 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:45,320 Speaker 6: the disruption of the Red Sea, and then we've also seen, 330 00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 6: you know, the impact going further back two years or 331 00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:53,480 Speaker 6: so of Russia's invasion on the grain market. So with 332 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:57,639 Speaker 6: these tensions running so high, it's difficult to be truly 333 00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:01,600 Speaker 6: confident that the US and the numbers are insulated from 334 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 6: you know, adverse surprises. But the points that he makes, 335 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 6: I think is that the economy is strong, and so 336 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 6: there seems to be, know, Harry, whatsoever to ease at 337 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 6: this point. Why stoke an economy that's already strong and 338 00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:17,200 Speaker 6: increase the odds that inflation will research? 339 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 1: You know, I'm listening to you, and I'm wondering whether 340 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 1: or not there are people around the globe that feel 341 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 1: the same way. And that's one reason to favor the US. 342 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 1: Brian has been talking a lot about how well the 343 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 1: market's been holding up as being kind of a response 344 00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:33,159 Speaker 1: to the performance of the overall American economy. I get that. 345 00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:36,480 Speaker 1: I don't disagree, but I'm wondering, given everything that you 346 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 1: just laid out in terms of uncertainty and risk, whether 347 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:44,879 Speaker 1: you want to kind of be defensive and put you know, 348 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 1: risk assets to work only in the United States. Maybe 349 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 1: the expense of other markets. Is that a fair statement? 350 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:53,919 Speaker 1: Maybe Japan? You would include Japan in that. 351 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:56,440 Speaker 9: I would definitely include Japan. 352 00:18:56,480 --> 00:19:00,199 Speaker 6: Japan is cheap, and Japan is at a point in 353 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 6: time where many things are going right and it looks 354 00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 6: like it's about to take off. So Japan spent the 355 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:08,480 Speaker 6: last nine years working on corporate governance reform. We're finally 356 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:14,120 Speaker 6: seeing the results of that through companies giving back returns 357 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 6: to shareholders, either through dividends or share buybacks. Also, we're 358 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:23,199 Speaker 6: seeing an increase in unsolicited bids for companies, which is 359 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,639 Speaker 6: very unusual in Japan, and I can't remember when the 360 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:27,119 Speaker 6: first one was, but it was just no more than 361 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 6: to say, two three years ago. And the pressure from 362 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:34,880 Speaker 6: the TSE is quite heavy on managements to respond response 363 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 6: responsibly to these take up of bids. In the past, 364 00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 6: it wasn't uncommon to just simply ignore them. But now 365 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 6: there is a list, if you like, of companies that 366 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 6: are doing the right thing according to TSSE reforms, and 367 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:54,240 Speaker 6: that includes being responsible in terms of taking seriously bids 368 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 6: from you know, investors or other companies to buy a 369 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:02,440 Speaker 6: company at a much higher price. These events and the 370 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:07,399 Speaker 6: encouragement of the TSE is really propelling valuations upwards. So 371 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:10,720 Speaker 6: even though we've just seen finally a new high in 372 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 6: Japan after the nineteen eighty nine you know peak and 373 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:17,600 Speaker 6: then collapse TACON thirty what is it, thirty four years? 374 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,480 Speaker 6: Is it to get back there, and we've just passed 375 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 6: forty thousand on the nick A, and I think even 376 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:24,880 Speaker 6: betadtes are ahead. 377 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's great to be diversified, and Japan's offering US investors, 378 00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:33,960 Speaker 2: for instance, great opportunities. Europe has done pretty well too. 379 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 2: The AI companies involved in that have rallied a lot, 380 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:40,880 Speaker 2: and just here in the last say three or four months, 381 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 2: we've seen a lot of ketchup being done by cyclical 382 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 2: oriented companies, and so industrials and materials and financials have 383 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:51,879 Speaker 2: rallied pretty well. And the other thing that's kind of 384 00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,919 Speaker 2: great about the environment is that you can make some 385 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:59,080 Speaker 2: bets on equities, which are obviously more risky assets, all 386 00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 2: the while collecting five percent coupon and the bonds that 387 00:21:01,680 --> 00:21:04,200 Speaker 2: you hold. No, that wasn't always the case. You were 388 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:06,879 Speaker 2: forced into the equity market because you're getting nothing on 389 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 2: bond deals one percent or so. And that remains the 390 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:12,919 Speaker 2: case in Japan. So you know, yeah, I'm curious how 391 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:19,480 Speaker 2: you are sort of diversified big picture, So we are, frankly. 392 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:22,200 Speaker 6: We're not particularly bullish about the US simply because the 393 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:25,479 Speaker 6: valuations are so high. Being value investors, we invest one 394 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 6: company at a time and you know, for US, it's 395 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 6: easier to focus on companies in Asia because they are 396 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 6: a lot cheaper, so they provide you a margin of safety. 397 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,159 Speaker 6: So in addition to Japan, there are other parts of 398 00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:37,840 Speaker 6: Asia that we think are quite attractive. 399 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 9: One of them, you know, clearly. 400 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:43,199 Speaker 6: Being India, and Indian valuations are not cheap even by 401 00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 6: US standards, but the growth of earnings among Indian companies 402 00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:50,200 Speaker 6: is extremely high. I was looking at a recent table 403 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 6: that showed that the earnings growth is something like two 404 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 6: and a half times that in the US. So that's 405 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 6: the case, surely you would want to accord a higher multiple. 406 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 9: To that growth in earnings. 407 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 6: And then also if you look at some other countries 408 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:10,640 Speaker 6: like Korea for instance, where you have fantastic companies, and 409 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:14,360 Speaker 6: the problem with Korea, what's been called the Korean discount, 410 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:18,520 Speaker 6: is one of governance. They've been so poor in terms 411 00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:21,400 Speaker 6: of treating minority shareholders. 412 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:25,040 Speaker 9: You know fairly that we've come to a point where. 413 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:28,120 Speaker 6: The Korean government sees what's happened in Japan that's successful 414 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,760 Speaker 6: this long period of corporate governance reform, and they want 415 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:32,239 Speaker 6: to do the same thing in Korea because they have 416 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:35,199 Speaker 6: the same exact problems which is an Asian population, and 417 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:38,320 Speaker 6: not enough returns on their stock market. So I think 418 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:42,440 Speaker 6: there are you know, good opportunities in Korea as well. 419 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,359 Speaker 1: Believed to before we let you go thirty seconds on China, 420 00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:45,960 Speaker 1: yes or no. 421 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 9: Not for us. 422 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,760 Speaker 6: China's cheap, but it's a difficult place for us because 423 00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 6: we don't see entrepreneurs taking care of minority shareholders. 424 00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:00,159 Speaker 2: All right, Belita, thanks very much for your insights. To 425 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,480 Speaker 2: own chairman of Dalton Investments. 426 00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 1: This has been the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you 427 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,000 Speaker 1: the stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific. 428 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,600 Speaker 1: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more 429 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 1: episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to 430 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:22,080 Speaker 1: the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen 431 00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:25,280 Speaker 1: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 432 00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:26,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business App.