1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:03,680 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju us prow 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:13,520 Speaker 1: read enough there for running again, so smoothe so sweet 3 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:17,480 Speaker 1: slipid sixteen just glorious execution. 4 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four 5 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time. 6 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:25,480 Speaker 1: How shot with that shop with mind? 7 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 3: Good buddy, and. 8 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 2: That's why you see your beautiful tiers. 9 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most dangerous amount of the planet. 10 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:38,480 Speaker 1: Nobody picks them. Shut up, I'm trying. 11 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 2: The one is left too, the wide eyed, drilled fibus 12 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 2: how old Earth? 13 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: Pick that happens? 14 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 3: Helloi one and welcome back to want to Go with 15 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 3: the soccer betting podcast from the action that represented to 16 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 3: you by Bet three sixty five. My name is Michael 17 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 3: Lieba and joining me always is my co host bj Counningham, 18 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:05,479 Speaker 3: and together the two of us are going to break 19 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:10,160 Speaker 3: down the first eight matches of Coca Copa America starting 20 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 3: on Thursday, June twentieth at eight pm Eastern time, and 21 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 3: we will kick this thing off with Canada and Argentina. 22 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 3: Argentina are the tournament favorites and they are obviously a 23 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:24,959 Speaker 3: whopping minus three point thirty four favorite at bet three 24 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 3: six five on the three way line against Canada, the 25 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:29,959 Speaker 3: Maple Leafs coming back at plus eight fifty. 26 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:33,319 Speaker 1: The draw here is plus four fifty. I don't have 27 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 1: much here. 28 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 3: I do tend to think along where you're going a 29 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 3: bit here. I'll get into it later, but bj where 30 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 3: do you see betting value for this? The Copa America 31 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:45,119 Speaker 3: tournament curtain raiser? 32 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, I like under two and a half goals at 33 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 2: plus one ten. So the thing about Argentina, and you know, 34 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 2: we didn't talk about them much in our preview podcasts 35 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 2: because you know they're they're the favorites and for and 36 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 2: rightfully so given the path they have, but they are 37 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 2: one of the most difficult teams in the world to beat, 38 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 2: Like no dub they won the World Cup, right But 39 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 2: what makes them so difficult is not because they have 40 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 2: Linel Messi, Latro, Martinez, o Le and Alvarez. It's actually 41 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:17,640 Speaker 2: because their defense. Their defense during these six World Cup 42 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 2: qualifiers in late twenty twenty three, they allowed er point 43 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:27,680 Speaker 2: three expectacles per ninety minutes, and only France since the 44 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 2: beginning of since September of twenty twenty one has created 45 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:35,519 Speaker 2: over one expectacle against them in regular time, so They're 46 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 2: generally a team that not only do they do they 47 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 2: have a great offense, but they are incredibly good at 48 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:48,079 Speaker 2: just shutting matches down, like from the start if they 49 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 2: get a goal. They're very very conservative of how they 50 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 2: actually go forward. They generally like to control the ball, 51 00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 2: don't like to take a lot of chances. They're a 52 00:02:57,200 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 2: very good tactle setup team, or you know, similar in 53 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:03,919 Speaker 2: the aspects as a team like Germany for example, that 54 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:06,919 Speaker 2: will use the concepts of vacated space really really well, 55 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:09,839 Speaker 2: but they're very difficult to play through. They're very good 56 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 2: in transition unless you have like really really good transition attackers, 57 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:17,360 Speaker 2: which Canada you could say does. But Canada or Jesse 58 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 2: Marsh they're going to set up in a you know, 59 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:22,160 Speaker 2: four four two low block. They're not really I don't 60 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 2: see a scenario where they're going to come out and 61 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 2: press Argentina a lot. So it's generally going to create 62 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 2: a very slow type of match to open up this tournament. 63 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 2: So in Argentina unders have just been hitting at at 64 00:03:34,760 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 2: a crazy rate for a long time now. So under 65 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 2: two and a half at plus money, I think ending 66 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 2: plus money is good. Only projected three two point three 67 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 2: goals for this match, So a nice boring under to 68 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 2: open the tournament. 69 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna walk down that same path. I think 70 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 3: that this thing starts slow. I think Canada will try 71 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 3: its best to remain in this game as long as possible, 72 00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:57,920 Speaker 3: keep this thing as tidy as possible as they possibly 73 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:00,440 Speaker 3: can as a big underdog, knowing that you go difference 74 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:03,120 Speaker 3: could play a pretty big role in whether or not 75 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 3: they get second in the group. 76 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 1: So I think the zero zero first. 77 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 3: Half market is pretty good at plus two forty at 78 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 3: bet three six five. I just think this thing starts slowly. Sure, 79 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 3: Argentina probably nicks it in the end, but it'll take 80 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 3: some time to get there. 81 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 1: That's how I'm playing it. 82 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:22,279 Speaker 3: So that's how we see the first match on Thursday. 83 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 3: There's also one match Friday, June twenty first between Peru, 84 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 3: who are plus three thirty three hunderdogs on the three 85 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 3: way line against Chile, who are even money favorites. 86 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 1: The draw here is plus two ten. I've got nothing here, 87 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 1: so I'll just pass it along to you. 88 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:42,039 Speaker 2: Both teams a score no minus one forty for me. Good, 89 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:45,359 Speaker 2: tried and true. Back to it. So I mentioned this 90 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:50,039 Speaker 2: in the preview pod but Peru is just horrible offensively. 91 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:53,520 Speaker 2: They have no real pieces in their attack to speak of. 92 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:56,800 Speaker 2: They're very transition based, like they rely on a few 93 00:04:56,800 --> 00:04:59,600 Speaker 2: transition attacks, but they're not generally good at even getting 94 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:05,479 Speaker 2: shots of those transition attacks. These two played in November 95 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 2: in World qualifying crew had point one three expected goals 96 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:13,559 Speaker 2: and four total shots in the match. Now, the flip 97 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 2: side is is Chile is a team that is actually 98 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 2: a pretty good ball progression team, like they were number 99 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:22,800 Speaker 2: one in these six World Cup qualifiers in progressive passes 100 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:24,840 Speaker 2: and passes into the final third. When they get into 101 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 2: the final third, that's where things tend to fall apart. 102 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 2: They only average one point one expected goals per ninety minutes. 103 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 2: And I went back and looked Michael. When these two 104 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:36,160 Speaker 2: played in Chile, both teams to score no closed at 105 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 2: minus one seventy five. What has happened since that point? 106 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 2: That should drop this number down to minus one forty 107 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 2: just because it's on a neutral field, Because I don't 108 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:48,920 Speaker 2: think it should, So I projected this north of minus 109 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:50,839 Speaker 2: two hundred and even the total is, you know, sitting 110 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 2: at one and a half. So both team to score 111 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 2: no minus one forty kind of just targeting mainly Peru 112 00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 2: not to score. But again Peru's gonna sit in a 113 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 2: low defensive block and Chile pretty inefficient in the final third, 114 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:04,719 Speaker 2: so both teams score not honest one forty Okay. 115 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:06,719 Speaker 1: Things start to pick up from there. 116 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 3: We go from one match to day to two over Saturday, 117 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:13,520 Speaker 3: Sunday and Monday for the first round of the group stage. 118 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 3: Ecuador and Venezuela up next to this one six pm 119 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:19,840 Speaker 3: Eastern time. Ecuador is odds on minus one twenty five, 120 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 3: Venezuela is plus three fifty, and the draw is plus 121 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 3: two sixty. Like you, I think that the underdog has 122 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 3: some legs here. We are not totally convinced by this 123 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 3: Ecuador side in this group. I think that the gap 124 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 3: between these two sides is pretty minimal, and this is 125 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 3: if you look at the way the group set up. 126 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:42,480 Speaker 3: This is a huge, huge match in this really soft 127 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 3: Group B, which is Ecuador, Venezuela, Mexico and Jamaica. 128 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:49,600 Speaker 1: So this is the one to get for both of them. 129 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 3: I guess you can argue that, oh, you know, a 130 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 3: draw would suit both of them, but I think that 131 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 3: an Ecuador win here, just given the gap between the 132 00:06:57,600 --> 00:06:59,239 Speaker 3: two sides is not out of the question. 133 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:01,239 Speaker 1: So plus three fifty, I think is fine. 134 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, so the yes, I'll be on Venezuela plus a half. 135 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:06,600 Speaker 1: Excuse me, I'm int Venezuela. 136 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 2: Na, yep, Venezuela plus a half at plus one ten. 137 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:14,880 Speaker 2: So these two played again late in World Cup qualifying 138 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 2: late twenty twenty three in Venezuela. That mantioned zero zero 139 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:22,840 Speaker 2: and there was a total of zero point seven expected goals, 140 00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 2: Ecuador onally creating point twenty six of those, but that 141 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 2: match closed. Michael as a pick them in Venezuela, and 142 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 2: generally in international football, home field advantage is worth about 143 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 2: fifty cents on the line. So if we're gonna be 144 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 2: going from minus you know, Venezuela was, you know, plus 145 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 2: about plus one seventy both ways, you probably should be 146 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 2: getting Ecuador on a neutral field down to plus one 147 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 2: twenty in that range. And I get it, like you know, 148 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 2: from from a from a talent perspective, yes, Ecuador's got 149 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 2: plenty of plenty of talent and a lot more than 150 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:57,200 Speaker 2: Venezuela here. But Venezuela is a very good team defending 151 00:07:57,200 --> 00:07:59,240 Speaker 2: in a low defensive block. They can beat you in 152 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 2: transition and the underlying numbers were incredibly impressive for them 153 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 2: third best expecting Golden Fredshell of anybody during those six 154 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 2: World Cup qualifiers, they all allowed point eight expectacles for 155 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 2: ninety minutes and again that match that in zero zero, 156 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 2: like they kind of outplayed Ecuador. They limited them to 157 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 2: just shots from outside the box. That's generally what Ecuador 158 00:08:17,440 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 2: kind of settles for. So yeah, I think number is 159 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:23,400 Speaker 2: just too high here on Ecuador. So I like Venezuela 160 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:25,120 Speaker 2: plus a half at plus one ten. 161 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, these matches, especially between the South American teams, it's 162 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 3: it's a it's akin to like divisional matchups in like 163 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 3: baseball or college football, where they're just so familiar with 164 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:37,320 Speaker 3: one another. Do you think about European World Cup qualifying, 165 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:40,560 Speaker 3: there are just so many more countries in Europe, So 166 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 3: in South America, these teams are just playing each other NonStop. 167 00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 3: They play each other World Cup qualifying and then Copa 168 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:49,560 Speaker 3: America World Cup qualifying. It's just it's it's they're so 169 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 3: familiar with each other too, so that usually leads itself 170 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 3: to these like lower event games when they do take 171 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 3: each other. On nine pm Eastern times, Saturday, June twenty second. 172 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 3: The other match in this group is mech as a 173 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:08,160 Speaker 3: minus one sixty three favorite against Jamaica. Jamaica's plus four 174 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 3: to seventy five, and the draw here is plus two eighty. 175 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 1: I don't have. 176 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 3: I just don't have in me to go with a 177 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 3: shot on the underdog here. You think this could be 178 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 3: a one way traffic for l try. 179 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 2: Yes, So let's we didn't talk about Jamaica a lot 180 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 2: in the preview, but there's some some things happening off 181 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:31,360 Speaker 2: the pitch for them that is not generally good. So 182 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 2: Leon Bailey, who is their best player, is not going 183 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:35,600 Speaker 2: to play for them. They put him on the roster. 184 00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:39,959 Speaker 2: He's had a big argument with the Jamaican FA basically saying, 185 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:42,719 Speaker 2: like you know, they don't provide much for them and 186 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 2: it's a very different experience than what it is at 187 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 2: Aston Villa. So it looks at at the time recording this, 188 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 2: it looks like he is not going to play, which 189 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 2: if you look at Jamaica per Transfer market dot Com, 190 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:58,000 Speaker 2: Jamaica's total squad value is about ninety four million, Leon 191 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 2: Bailey makes up forty two of that, so well, he 192 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 2: is generally everything, not only to their attack but just 193 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 2: their entire team. So the other aspect of it, though, 194 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 2: is that even though you know Jamaica has some names 195 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 2: that you you know might recognize, from Michael Antonio to 196 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 2: Damari Gray to Ethan Pinnock since September of twenty twenty one, 197 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 2: which is kind of the date I'm going off of 198 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 2: for a lot of these things because it's still within 199 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:24,840 Speaker 2: the cycle, and it gives us about a twenty match 200 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 2: sample size where you know, it's at least big enough 201 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 2: because we don't just have that many international matches. But 202 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:34,000 Speaker 2: Jamaica has a minus point nine to four expected gold 203 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 2: differential per ninety minutes. They have played Mexico three times, 204 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 2: twice in World Cup qualifying, where Mexico out created them 205 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:45,719 Speaker 2: five point two expectacles to point three, and then they 206 00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:49,320 Speaker 2: beat them in the Gold Cup semi finals, which was 207 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:53,199 Speaker 2: a little closer on XG, but you gotta remember Jamaica 208 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 2: brought everybody to that tournament, their AAA squad and everybody else, 209 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 2: at least the top sides didn't sell and eve. When 210 00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 2: Jamaica played Canada in their two Nations legal which was 211 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 2: essentially a playoff to get into Copa America, they got 212 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 2: very well dominated on XG even though they made it here. 213 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:16,839 Speaker 2: So far, so Mexico minus one and minus one ten 214 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:20,240 Speaker 2: for me, they've dominated Mexican, They've dominated Jamaican all three meetings. 215 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 2: Jamaica is a very low block, transitional type team. And 216 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 2: you know, Mexico, although you won't have some of the 217 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:28,560 Speaker 2: older names that you might recognize, this is still a 218 00:11:28,679 --> 00:11:31,080 Speaker 2: very good team and a team that's very versatile in 219 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 2: what they do tactically. So Mexico minus one projected Mexico well, 220 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 2: you know, closer to you know, minus three hundred than 221 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:43,000 Speaker 2: minus one seventy five. So I like Mexico minus one. 222 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:45,240 Speaker 1: Okay. 223 00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:47,440 Speaker 3: That brings us a Sunday and brings us to the 224 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 3: opening match for the Yanks. USA is a minus five 225 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 3: hundred favorite against Bolivia. The Bolivians are sixteen to one 226 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:56,439 Speaker 3: on the three way line to draw out here is 227 00:11:56,440 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 3: plus five twenty five. Yeah, there's not any on the 228 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 3: US here and. 229 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 1: Now, as we've as we've said. 230 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:06,560 Speaker 3: The Bolivian side is so dependent on its its distinct, 231 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:11,080 Speaker 3: highly unique home field advantage in South America, they won't 232 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:14,319 Speaker 3: be getting that here. So this does set up for 233 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 3: what should be a match where it just is about 234 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 3: how long it takes the United States to unlock Bolivia, 235 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 3: and you can make an argument that that's not something 236 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:28,200 Speaker 3: that the US will be all that comfortable in. We've 237 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 3: seen in previous iterations of the Americans they have they 238 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:37,200 Speaker 3: do struggle to get these ones over the line. But 239 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 3: I do think that this does play into the US's hands. 240 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:45,640 Speaker 3: If I was to bet anything, I would look at 241 00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 3: the US team total over two and a half at 242 00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:50,679 Speaker 3: even money. I think you can go a little bit 243 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 3: beyond that as well, if you wanted to go, you know, 244 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 3: to something into like the Alts into like three and 245 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 3: a half. I do think that this sets up really well. 246 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:03,960 Speaker 3: Or the other option there is to go with like 247 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:07,719 Speaker 3: the US to win to nail in like some sort 248 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:11,439 Speaker 3: of same game parlight where the uh you're betting the 249 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:14,720 Speaker 3: US to score a bunch and uh Bolivia not to 250 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:17,120 Speaker 3: get on the board. I do have some confidence here 251 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 3: that the United States can putup a quick and number BJ. 252 00:13:19,520 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 2: Yeah. It will just kind of be Yeah. That's one 253 00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:25,000 Speaker 2: of the thing is like, uh, you know, the United 254 00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 2: States at times, not not always, but at times have 255 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 2: struggled to break down low defensive blocks like this. But 256 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 2: this little defensive block just flat out socks outside of 257 00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:39,120 Speaker 2: Bolivia there if you want, like a an a similar 258 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 2: type of team like Bolivia is, like uh Is is 259 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 2: like a lot like Costa Rica. It's a it's a 260 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 2: five four to one low block. It's very very passive 261 00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 2: but generally very difficult. Are They're very bad at denying 262 00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:58,760 Speaker 2: space through the middle, and they are also very game 263 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 2: state dependent as well. They, like I said in the preview, 264 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 2: pot like they've pulled off some upsets in Bolivia. They 265 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:06,960 Speaker 2: have literally not even drawn a match outside of Bolivia 266 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:10,200 Speaker 2: since September of twenty twenty one. They're very very bad 267 00:14:10,679 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 2: talent wise tactically, like it's just a really bad team. 268 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:17,000 Speaker 2: So I don't fault anybody. If they want to bet 269 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:18,760 Speaker 2: the United States put them in a part, they put 270 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 2: their money line in a parlay with somebody, maybe Brazil 271 00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 2: and one other team, maybe Brazil and Argentina. But yeah, 272 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 2: I mean, I have this projected pretty close to what 273 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 2: the market actually has right around the United States. Minus too. 274 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:34,480 Speaker 2: Should also mention if you want to see any of 275 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 2: my projections, they're pinned to the top of my Twitter page, 276 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 2: so if you want to go check those out for 277 00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 2: Copa or Euros they're there, but yeah, I'm just passing 278 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 2: on this one. Hopefully United States States gets off on 279 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:49,680 Speaker 2: the right foot here, but yeah, they're generally priced probably 280 00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 2: accordingly to where they should be in the market. 281 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:54,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you'd expect there will be times to 282 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 1: bet on the US. This is definitely not one of them. 283 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 3: In fact, I think if you are good to play anything, 284 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:02,720 Speaker 3: it would probably be you know, on this just the 285 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:03,680 Speaker 3: straight like money lines. 286 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 1: It would be going the other way. 287 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 3: Let's talk about the other match in that group, which 288 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 3: is Uruguay and Panamah. Uruguay, which is a team that 289 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:19,680 Speaker 3: you and I thought has has some serious likes to 290 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 3: win this whole thing. There minus three hundred, the Panamanians 291 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 3: are nine to one. The draw here is sitting at 292 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 3: four to one. It's another pass for me. I think 293 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 3: that the when we get to USA and Uruguay, like, 294 00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 3: that's when we'll start to have a pretty compelling match 295 00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 3: to bet. But like a lot of this Copa America, 296 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:41,800 Speaker 3: you'd have to do some pretty deep digging, I think 297 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 3: to find value here, and I'm just not comfortable doing that. 298 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 2: I think Panama is actually going to be kind of 299 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 2: a live dog in this tournament. In a sense, and 300 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 2: this match maybe so because if you look through what 301 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 2: Panama has kind of done lately, you know, I know, 302 00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:04,120 Speaker 2: it wasn't the United States AA squad, and they did 303 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 2: kind of orderform, but they did beat the United States 304 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 2: in the Gold Cup to get to the final. They 305 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 2: housed Costa Rica in the quarterfinals, and then when they 306 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:15,920 Speaker 2: played Mexico in the Nation's League semifinals, I know, they 307 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 2: lost three nothing, but they controlled well over fifty percent 308 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:24,440 Speaker 2: of the possession. They outshot Mexico nineteen to six and 309 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 2: then racked up over, you know, close to two expected goals. Now, 310 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,120 Speaker 2: it's not a squad that has you know, a ton 311 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 2: of talent, you know a lot of guys playing an 312 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 2: MLS or Mexico. But they are a very direct, transitional 313 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 2: type of team. So this match could end up very 314 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:44,360 Speaker 2: back and forth with Uruguay because that's obviously how they 315 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:47,440 Speaker 2: want to play as well. But just I'm gonna say, 316 00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 2: be careful with this Panama team. Like they're not like 317 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 2: Costa Rica, They're not like Jamaica. They're actually a pretty 318 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 2: pesky and a decent underdog. So when they played the 319 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 2: United States, yeah, I mean, get ready for it, because 320 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 2: they're actually not that bad, so for me, it's a 321 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 2: pass here, though. I generally, if you've had to play anything, 322 00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 2: I would maybe take a look at Anama on some spreads, 323 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:11,120 Speaker 2: but I don't really want to bet against the team 324 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,960 Speaker 2: I picked to win this tournament, so I'm passing. 325 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:14,960 Speaker 1: Okay. 326 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:19,400 Speaker 3: The last two matches for this episode Colombia and Paraguay 327 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:23,119 Speaker 3: at six pm a Sert time, Monday, June twenty fourth, 328 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:27,000 Speaker 3: Colombia minus four thirty three, Paraguay plus four p fifty. 329 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:29,920 Speaker 1: The draw is plus two fifty. 330 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:34,199 Speaker 3: Aside from it being one of it's going to be 331 00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:38,639 Speaker 3: a really nice, aesthetically pleasing matchup. Given the kits that 332 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:42,160 Speaker 3: these two teams wear. The beautiful ye yellow jersey's probably 333 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 3: Colombia and then Paraguay has usually has something crazy for 334 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:49,119 Speaker 3: us with the red and the white and sometimes some 335 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:54,240 Speaker 3: stripes some checks. This year, it's just like almost like 336 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 3: an Athletico Madrid kind of situation, but it should be 337 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,440 Speaker 3: a lot of fun to watch. I'm with you here, 338 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,920 Speaker 3: I think that Colombia is like a decent parlay piece 339 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,359 Speaker 3: and wear soccer podcast, so trying to find something else 340 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 3: to parlay them with, whether it's in euros. 341 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:09,719 Speaker 1: Or in maybe you want to. 342 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 3: You know, maybe USA you might just want and a 343 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,439 Speaker 3: half and Columbia might just want forty money line. But 344 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:18,120 Speaker 3: I think that this is a decent chance to get 345 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:21,440 Speaker 3: on Colombia. I think that this line, like you think 346 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 3: as well, is a little too short. 347 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:27,720 Speaker 2: Yeah. So Colombian and Paraguay played the very last World 348 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 2: Cup qualifier in late November, and Colombia won that match 349 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,640 Speaker 2: one nothing and expected goals were two point five too 350 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:38,080 Speaker 2: point seven. Now, Colombia does leave the door open to 351 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 2: themselves a lot because they are a team that is 352 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:42,719 Speaker 2: going to press from the front. They are going to 353 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:45,400 Speaker 2: create very high event type matches just by the way 354 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:49,480 Speaker 2: that they play. But as I mentioned with Paraguay, there's 355 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 2: no offense to speak up with this team. They have 356 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 2: scored one goal in the calendar year, like that's it. 357 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,680 Speaker 2: I get that they have underperformed, and yes they probably 358 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 2: are due for a little to positive aggression. Yes they 359 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:07,120 Speaker 2: have in Ciso, Yes they have Miguel Almaran, but they 360 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 2: generally just settle for way too many shots from outside 361 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:12,439 Speaker 2: the boxes. A lot of these teams in South America do. 362 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 2: And if you're going to do that against Colombia, like 363 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:19,160 Speaker 2: playing transitionally, Like you have to be able to create 364 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 2: big scoring chances against them and take advantage of the 365 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 2: transition opportunities they're going to give you. In the last meeting, 366 00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:27,840 Speaker 2: they only created point seven expected goals, Michael. They had 367 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:30,120 Speaker 2: eleven shots. They had the same amount of shots as Columbia, 368 00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:32,680 Speaker 2: and that's how much lower quality of their shots were 369 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 2: comparatively to what Colombia gets. So I mean I projected 370 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:39,200 Speaker 2: Columbia at minus one point fifty four, so like, there's 371 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 2: really not much value here. But I want to bet 372 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:44,200 Speaker 2: against this Paraguay team whenever I can, because there's just 373 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 2: no offense to speak of. So I'm gonna be on 374 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,120 Speaker 2: Columbia minus one forty. I have way more attacking talent 375 00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,959 Speaker 2: than Paraguay does. Paraguay is a decent defensive side if 376 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:55,159 Speaker 2: you can get them, if they can sit in a 377 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 2: low defensive block. But Colombia is going to do everything 378 00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:00,399 Speaker 2: in their power not to let them do that and 379 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:02,359 Speaker 2: get in transition moments just like they did in the 380 00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:05,400 Speaker 2: previous match. So I like Columbia minus one forty. I'm 381 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:08,840 Speaker 2: just really looking to fade this Paraguay squad whenever I can. 382 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:12,480 Speaker 3: And we'll wrap up with a with Brazil and Costa 383 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 3: Rica eight pm Eastern Time on the twenty fourth of June, 384 00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 3: that's Monday. And wouldn't you know, Brazil is a massive favorite. 385 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 3: Excuse me nine pm Eastern time minus seven hundred on 386 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:26,359 Speaker 3: the three way line for Brazil Costa Rica eighteen to 387 00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 3: one to draw seven to one. I think you can 388 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:33,280 Speaker 3: probably just play some Brazil all so you can play 389 00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:37,479 Speaker 3: some goal scorers you get away for the lineup. Obviously, 390 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:42,000 Speaker 3: there's there's going to be plenty of folks to get 391 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 3: among in terms of those markets. But I have a 392 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:49,160 Speaker 3: pretty hard time seeing Costa Rica do anything here. Bj 393 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:52,679 Speaker 3: and those are famous last words because they were quite 394 00:20:52,800 --> 00:20:56,760 Speaker 3: a ridiculous roller coaster ride in World Cup twenty twenty two, 395 00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:59,160 Speaker 3: when we had talked about them perhaps being the worst 396 00:20:59,160 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 3: team in the field. 397 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, Michael, if you looked at expected ol differential, 398 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:08,240 Speaker 2: they were the worst team in the field. So I 399 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:11,199 Speaker 2: before I get to Costa Rica, I want to go 400 00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 2: into something about Brazil, and it's gonna be a little 401 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 2: philosophical because I think a lot of people will look 402 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 2: at their World Cup qualifying at late twenty twenty three 403 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,240 Speaker 2: and you'll see that they lost three straight matches that 404 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 2: they drew against Venezuela, and that the numbers just were terrible. 405 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 2: But I think this is one of the very very 406 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 2: rare instances where you can take those results and you 407 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:35,199 Speaker 2: can throw them directly out the window because they were 408 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:39,320 Speaker 2: under the management of Fernando Denis. And if you don't, 409 00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:41,560 Speaker 2: if you want to get into like a deep philosophical 410 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:45,960 Speaker 2: thing discussion on him, he is a big believer in relationism. 411 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 2: And essentially what Brazil was doing is they were playing 412 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,359 Speaker 2: a style of positionless football where they were trying to 413 00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:57,760 Speaker 2: get the most guys they possibly could around the ball, 414 00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:01,359 Speaker 2: late quick passes, always trying to load through every single 415 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 2: phase of build up, which is, you know, a philosophy 416 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 2: that's big in South America, whereas in Europe it's very positionalism, right, 417 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,240 Speaker 2: like very structural in terms of build ups and things 418 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:16,040 Speaker 2: like that. And if you want to go like what, 419 00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 2: there's a video that the peorist did on YouTube, which 420 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,320 Speaker 2: is it beautifully lays this out, but essentially is this 421 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,720 Speaker 2: when you have most of pretty much all of Brazil's 422 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 2: players now playing over in Europe in a positional positional system, 423 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,439 Speaker 2: and you bring them back over to South America, and 424 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,919 Speaker 2: you have somebody playing them in a relationism. They're not 425 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,439 Speaker 2: used to playing that, and when you have so many, 426 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,840 Speaker 2: so few training sessions to try and drill that in, 427 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:46,120 Speaker 2: they struggled like they couldn't really play his style of play. Yes, 428 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,000 Speaker 2: if they had more time, like maybe it would have 429 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:51,119 Speaker 2: ended up working out, but it just was one of 430 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 2: those things that didn't really jive and it just didn't 431 00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 2: really work with the players without because of what they 432 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:59,280 Speaker 2: were doing at the club level. So they go out 433 00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:03,359 Speaker 2: and they hired the Brazilian Enchilatti and now they're setting 434 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 2: up more like Real Madrid, where it's like out of possession, 435 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:09,960 Speaker 2: we're gonna play a passive four to four to two. 436 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:12,320 Speaker 2: We're gonna press sometimes but not really. 437 00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:13,200 Speaker 1: But really what we're. 438 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 2: Looking to do is we're looking to play in transition, 439 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,280 Speaker 2: right like we're trying to give Venetians Junior and Rodrigo 440 00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:20,960 Speaker 2: and Raffina getting in behind defenders, getting in one v 441 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:27,360 Speaker 2: one situations and causing problems that way. Costa Rica at 442 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,040 Speaker 2: the World Cup was obviously in a group with Spain 443 00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:35,600 Speaker 2: in Germany. In Japan, they beat Japan in one of 444 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:39,879 Speaker 2: those matches that will go down in infany but against 445 00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 2: Mechs excuse me, against Spain and against Germany they allowed 446 00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 2: eleven goals and nine point three bactic goals. It is 447 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:53,080 Speaker 2: or twice against Germany. But the problem, Michael is, and 448 00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:55,679 Speaker 2: this is kind of my point, is that when you 449 00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:58,760 Speaker 2: are a very passive team with no talent, and you 450 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,960 Speaker 2: are and you can seed early and you have to 451 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 2: come out of your defensive block against elite, elite, elite teams, 452 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:10,360 Speaker 2: that is what happens. You get just the score ran 453 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,080 Speaker 2: up on you over and over and over again. And 454 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,679 Speaker 2: since Brazil is now a more transition based team and 455 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,880 Speaker 2: they're not very like this relationism, possession like slow build 456 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:21,720 Speaker 2: up type team, they're gonna punish Costa Rica over and 457 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:23,959 Speaker 2: over and over and over again because there still is 458 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,679 Speaker 2: no talent on this Costa Rican side. Even in the 459 00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:31,280 Speaker 2: qualifying for this, Costa Rica played Panama in the quarterfinals 460 00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,679 Speaker 2: and they got beat six to one on aggregate. They 461 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,360 Speaker 2: beat Honduras to get here, so you know, congratulations, good 462 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:42,399 Speaker 2: on them, But this thing has just blowout written all 463 00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,720 Speaker 2: over it. So I like Brazil minus two and a 464 00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 2: half plus one twenty five. I think that this generally 465 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:50,719 Speaker 2: gets out of hand really really fast, and it's going 466 00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,639 Speaker 2: to play out very similarly to how their matches against 467 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:56,720 Speaker 2: Spain and against Germany did at the World Cup. 468 00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:01,560 Speaker 3: Alrighty, so that is the very state matches. Real quick, 469 00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:03,720 Speaker 3: we'll give out a best bet if you got one, 470 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 3: what would you tag as your favorite play for? 471 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,240 Speaker 1: Excuse me? For Copa America. The first eight matches. 472 00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, first match of the tournament Argentina and Canada under 473 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 2: two and a half goals at plus one ten. Argentina 474 00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:18,320 Speaker 2: is the most difficult team to beat in the world. 475 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,119 Speaker 2: That's not really a shock to anybody because they are 476 00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 2: the reigning World Cup champions. But what they are incredibly 477 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,440 Speaker 2: good at, Michael, is they're an incredibly good defensive team. 478 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,440 Speaker 2: Over the six World Cup qualifiers in South America in 479 00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,160 Speaker 2: late twenty twenty three, they only allowed point three expected 480 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:34,480 Speaker 2: goals per ninety minutes. They are an absolutely elite team 481 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,240 Speaker 2: at shutting matches down once they go ahead. They're not 482 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:39,800 Speaker 2: of the teams like Spain or Germany who will try 483 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 2: to run up the score. They want to control the ball, 484 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,720 Speaker 2: they want to control possession. And against Canada, who's going 485 00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,119 Speaker 2: to play a lower type of defensive blocker in a 486 00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:48,920 Speaker 2: four to four to two which they do have good 487 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,359 Speaker 2: ball winning midfielders and good wingers and good defenders that 488 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,160 Speaker 2: can keep these type of teams out. But Argentina's matches 489 00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:56,760 Speaker 2: over those six roll up qualifiers average one point six 490 00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 2: expected goals per ninety minutes, so I think I think 491 00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,600 Speaker 2: two and an half is generally pretty high here, especially 492 00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:04,800 Speaker 2: for the first match of the tournament. So I like 493 00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:06,520 Speaker 2: under two and half goals a plus one ten. 494 00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:10,439 Speaker 3: Okay, and I'll go with Venezuela to pull off the 495 00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:15,080 Speaker 3: upset at plus three sixty against Ecuador. This is a 496 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:19,640 Speaker 3: Saturday kickoff six pm Eastern time. It's simply put. The 497 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,119 Speaker 3: gap between these two teams just is not as wide 498 00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 3: as these odds, which suggest I think everyone is expecting 499 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:27,520 Speaker 3: Ecuador to be one of the sleepers. 500 00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:27,880 Speaker 1: In this tournament. 501 00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 3: I'd go the other way and think that I think 502 00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,920 Speaker 3: Venezuela fits that profile a little bit better. So give 503 00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:38,400 Speaker 3: me Venezuela plus three sixty and Saturday, six pm Eastern 504 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 3: time pull the upset. 505 00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:43,760 Speaker 1: Okay. That will do it for this episode of Wonder Goal. 506 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,120 Speaker 3: A reminder that Wonder Goal is probably presented by bet 507 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:48,359 Speaker 3: three sixty five and bet three six five doesn't do 508 00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:49,879 Speaker 3: ordinary that's why you get more boosts with them than 509 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:51,639 Speaker 3: anyone else. Every day they power up the odds on 510 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,000 Speaker 3: hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more. 511 00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:56,960 Speaker 3: Bet three six five booth specific markets your winnings and 512 00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:58,760 Speaker 3: even parlays, and they don't stop there. Keep an eye 513 00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:01,040 Speaker 3: out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible 514 00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:03,160 Speaker 3: super Boost. Check out the boosts and see why it's 515 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,000 Speaker 3: never ordinary at Bet three sixty five USB twenty one 516 00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:11,280 Speaker 3: or older and President Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, 517 00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:14,640 Speaker 3: North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia. We're eighteen and older in Kentucky. 518 00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:16,480 Speaker 3: If you or anyone you know has a gambling problem, 519 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,320 Speaker 3: please call Wene hundred gambler or WEENNYE hundred bets off 520 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:23,800 Speaker 3: in Iowa. Terms, conditions and restrictions apply, Okay. Be sure 521 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 3: to check out the remaining episodes of our Copa America coverage. 522 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,760 Speaker 3: BJ Sam Ingram and I are covering every match of 523 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 3: Euro twenty twenty four as well, so tons more to come. 524 00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:35,840 Speaker 1: Thank you very much to. 525 00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:39,240 Speaker 3: Our producer Noah for all the hard work and best 526 00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:44,480 Speaker 3: of luck everybody with your bets in Copa America Round. 527 00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:56,560 Speaker 1: One Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you 528 00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,679 Speaker 1: or someone you care about has a gambling problem. Helps 529 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:02,840 Speaker 1: availed twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler