WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Sophia Drossos & Mark Lehmann

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, Single Best Idea. Thank

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<v Speaker 1>you for the comments and Ed YARDNNY yesterday. Yesterday we

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<v Speaker 1>spent our entire Single Best Idea with Yardanny, who's looking

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<v Speaker 1>at the Roaring twenties and has some huge numbers. But

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<v Speaker 1>to I want to make this clear because people are like, OMG,

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<v Speaker 1>Dow fifty thousand, Dow sixty thousand, SPX eight thousand, and

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<v Speaker 1>Ed brought this up, but it got buried in the conversation.

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<v Speaker 1>If you extrapolate the trend line to get you to

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<v Speaker 1>those targets on a per year basis, it's not all

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<v Speaker 1>that much of a lift. I want to make clear

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<v Speaker 1>that in the Yard Denny Roaring twenties, he's looking at

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<v Speaker 1>seven or eight percent per year return. It may happen sooner,

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<v Speaker 1>may happen later, but these are not outlandish numbers across

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<v Speaker 1>the X axis. I think we'll leave it at that.

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<v Speaker 1>The Roaring twenties out there got a note from UBS today.

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<v Speaker 1>Will will effort at Ubs as they use the phrase

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<v Speaker 1>Roaring twenties. We used it with Sofia Drosis. She's the

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<v Speaker 1>point seven to two. This is Steve Cohen Shop and

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<v Speaker 1>she has the privilege. You're working with Dean Mackie. Sofia Drosis,

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<v Speaker 1>a nominal GDP and the Roaring twenties.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know about Roaring twenties exactly, but I'll tell

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<v Speaker 2>you a little bit about my forecast. I'm looking for

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<v Speaker 2>nominal GDP five five and a half percent this year,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's pretty strong, and that it sort of entails

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<v Speaker 2>that corporate profits will remain strong. So we are seeing

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<v Speaker 2>the consumer remain strong, and I think maybe that there

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<v Speaker 2>are some misconceptions about the relative strength of the consumer,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe some concerns about the fact that goods prices are slowing,

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<v Speaker 2>and so maybe that's restraining some of the things we're

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<v Speaker 2>seeing in retail sales. But recently the consumers also spending

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<v Speaker 2>on services, and so when I look at consumption overall,

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<v Speaker 2>it remains at a trend pace, which again makes it

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<v Speaker 2>hard to see a recession.

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<v Speaker 1>Sophia Drosis there informed comments the optimism that she has.

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<v Speaker 1>She's again at point seven to two. We love to

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<v Speaker 1>get outside three zip codes. I'm as guilty of this

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<v Speaker 1>as anyone. Look far west to sixth Avenue. We all

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<v Speaker 1>want to do that. We want to go across this nation,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's really important when people fly in from the

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<v Speaker 1>left coast from San Francisco, and he is iconic. Mark

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<v Speaker 1>Lehmann is with JMP, not JPMGP Morgan, j MP, which

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<v Speaker 1>is the aggregate of San Francisco technology history. You go

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<v Speaker 1>back to Montgomery Securities, Thomas Weisel, Robertson Stevens, the rest

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<v Speaker 1>of it. Well, there's the technology that's always been in

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<v Speaker 1>San Francisco. He had wonderful comments his optimism on the

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<v Speaker 1>resurrection of San Francisco. But here's Mark Lehman of JMP

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<v Speaker 1>on the new tech age.

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<v Speaker 3>I think a lot has to do with Back then,

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<v Speaker 3>the hype was just show up, have a meeting, get

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<v Speaker 3>your capital.

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<v Speaker 1>Yep.

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<v Speaker 3>Now it's a much more discipline discussion. I think there's

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<v Speaker 3>way fewer of these kind of larks, if you will,

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<v Speaker 3>that are being created. And I think the big firms

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<v Speaker 3>are collaborating. So it's not just the venture capital it's

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<v Speaker 3>but the big install tech companies. We mentioned Google. Obviously

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<v Speaker 3>Microsoft's got a big stake, but I think the dynamism

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<v Speaker 3>of the investment is way different than it was years ago,

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<v Speaker 3>way different.

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<v Speaker 1>Mark Leman of JMP. As we go into Google's announcements

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<v Speaker 1>this afternoon, and on to August first, Amazon and other

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<v Speaker 1>worthies of this tech era that we're living in did

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<v Speaker 1>an experiment today. We tied Zach Cohen and David Gurr

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<v Speaker 1>at the same time. On the politics. I really want

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<v Speaker 1>to say, I've had all sorts of anecdotal evidence people

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<v Speaker 1>coming up at lunch or whatever thanking us for a

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<v Speaker 1>political coverage. We're sort of in a mailstream mirror where

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<v Speaker 1>we're just trying to survive and get through the day

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<v Speaker 1>and stay up with the zeitgeist. And the news flow

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<v Speaker 1>is reported by our wonderful news bureau led by Margaret Collins.

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<v Speaker 1>But I'm really taken by the comments of how we're

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<v Speaker 1>trying to stay away from the punditry and talk about

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<v Speaker 1>the more granularity. What a successful effort today was Zach

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<v Speaker 1>Cohen and David Gurrow. We'll try to do that again.

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<v Speaker 1>We're on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg podcast That's all I

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<v Speaker 1>can say. I sound like everybody else on YouTube. That's

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