Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, Single Best Idea. Thank
Speaker 1: you for the comments and Ed YARDNNY yesterday. Yesterday we
Speaker 1: spent our entire Single Best Idea with Yardanny, who's looking
Speaker 1: at the Roaring twenties and has some huge numbers. But
Speaker 1: to I want to make this clear because people are like, OMG,
Speaker 1: Dow fifty thousand, Dow sixty thousand, SPX eight thousand, and
Speaker 1: Ed brought this up, but it got buried in the conversation.
Speaker 1: If you extrapolate the trend line to get you to
Speaker 1: those targets on a per year basis, it's not all
Speaker 1: that much of a lift. I want to make clear
Speaker 1: that in the Yard Denny Roaring twenties, he's looking at
Speaker 1: seven or eight percent per year return. It may happen sooner,
Speaker 1: may happen later, but these are not outlandish numbers across
Speaker 1: the X axis. I think we'll leave it at that.
Speaker 1: The Roaring twenties out there got a note from UBS today.
Speaker 1: Will will effort at Ubs as they use the phrase
Speaker 1: Roaring twenties. We used it with Sofia Drosis. She's the
Speaker 1: point seven to two. This is Steve Cohen Shop and
Speaker 1: she has the privilege. You're working with Dean Mackie. Sofia Drosis,
Speaker 1: a nominal GDP and the Roaring twenties.
Speaker 2: I don't know about Roaring twenties exactly, but I'll tell
Speaker 2: you a little bit about my forecast. I'm looking for
Speaker 2: nominal GDP five five and a half percent this year,
Speaker 2: and that's pretty strong, and that it sort of entails
Speaker 2: that corporate profits will remain strong. So we are seeing
Speaker 2: the consumer remain strong, and I think maybe that there
Speaker 2: are some misconceptions about the relative strength of the consumer,
Speaker 2: maybe some concerns about the fact that goods prices are slowing,
Speaker 2: and so maybe that's restraining some of the things we're
Speaker 2: seeing in retail sales. But recently the consumers also spending
Speaker 2: on services, and so when I look at consumption overall,
Speaker 2: it remains at a trend pace, which again makes it
Speaker 2: hard to see a recession.
Speaker 1: Sophia Drosis there informed comments the optimism that she has.
Speaker 1: She's again at point seven to two. We love to
Speaker 1: get outside three zip codes. I'm as guilty of this
Speaker 1: as anyone. Look far west to sixth Avenue. We all
Speaker 1: want to do that. We want to go across this nation,
Speaker 1: and it's really important when people fly in from the
Speaker 1: left coast from San Francisco, and he is iconic. Mark
Speaker 1: Lehmann is with JMP, not JPMGP Morgan, j MP, which
Speaker 1: is the aggregate of San Francisco technology history. You go
Speaker 1: back to Montgomery Securities, Thomas Weisel, Robertson Stevens, the rest
Speaker 1: of it. Well, there's the technology that's always been in
Speaker 1: San Francisco. He had wonderful comments his optimism on the
Speaker 1: resurrection of San Francisco. But here's Mark Lehman of JMP
Speaker 1: on the new tech age.
Speaker 3: I think a lot has to do with Back then,
Speaker 3: the hype was just show up, have a meeting, get
Speaker 3: your capital.
Speaker 1: Yep.
Speaker 3: Now it's a much more discipline discussion. I think there's
Speaker 3: way fewer of these kind of larks, if you will,
Speaker 3: that are being created. And I think the big firms
Speaker 3: are collaborating. So it's not just the venture capital it's
Speaker 3: but the big install tech companies. We mentioned Google. Obviously
Speaker 3: Microsoft's got a big stake, but I think the dynamism
Speaker 3: of the investment is way different than it was years ago,
Speaker 3: way different.
Speaker 1: Mark Leman of JMP. As we go into Google's announcements
Speaker 1: this afternoon, and on to August first, Amazon and other
Speaker 1: worthies of this tech era that we're living in did
Speaker 1: an experiment today. We tied Zach Cohen and David Gurr
Speaker 1: at the same time. On the politics. I really want
Speaker 1: to say, I've had all sorts of anecdotal evidence people
Speaker 1: coming up at lunch or whatever thanking us for a
Speaker 1: political coverage. We're sort of in a mailstream mirror where
Speaker 1: we're just trying to survive and get through the day
Speaker 1: and stay up with the zeitgeist. And the news flow
Speaker 1: is reported by our wonderful news bureau led by Margaret Collins.
Speaker 1: But I'm really taken by the comments of how we're
Speaker 1: trying to stay away from the punditry and talk about
Speaker 1: the more granularity. What a successful effort today was Zach
Speaker 1: Cohen and David Gurrow. We'll try to do that again.
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