Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure
Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everybody, welcome to the
Speaker 1: Buck Brief. This episode, Ryan Gardusky joins with the latest
Speaker 1: on all things politics. He is the host of the
Speaker 1: or rather well, he's a host of many things. He's
Speaker 1: also the writer behind the National Populist newsletter on Substack,
Speaker 1: which I highly recommend you go check out and subscribe
Speaker 1: to you, mister Ryan, good to see you. Explain OURFK Junior.
Speaker 1: What is going on? Explain this to me? Is he
Speaker 1: going to take more votes from Biden or from Trump?
Speaker 1: Is he getting on the ballots? What the heck's with
Speaker 1: this VP thing? So just like make this make sense? Please?
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, it's so funny. I had a conversation
Speaker 2: with my buddy Megan McCain and she goes, this is
Speaker 2: not going to be the vice president of my contract.
Speaker 2: I can tell you that right now. The Yeah, So,
Speaker 2: first of all, he's only on the ballad right now
Speaker 2: in Utah. He says he has enough signatures and his
Speaker 2: pack has enough signatures for other states like Nevada, Georgia,
Speaker 2: New Hampshire, Oregon, in a couple few other states, but
Speaker 2: there's there's a lot of legal challenges of whether or
Speaker 2: not his pack can get signatures for him as a campaign.
Speaker 2: They're really unsure about that. So we'll see where he
Speaker 2: lands with his With this woman as his VP, she
Speaker 2: has an estimated billion dollars from her divorce. They have
Speaker 2: money to sit there and fight every legal challenge and
Speaker 2: try to get on the ballot in every single state.
Speaker 2: But as of right now, it's one state with a
Speaker 2: possible I think seven others. The Cornell West, by the way,
Speaker 2: is on four states, so Cornell West is on actually
Speaker 2: more states right now than than RFK Jr. What is
Speaker 2: the phenomena RFK Junior. He does have a hopeful message
Speaker 2: his response to the State of the Union, which is
Speaker 2: a nine minute video. If you've evern't seen it, it's
Speaker 2: really good, Like it's really, really really good. It's not
Speaker 2: completely accurate. He talks about how his uncle, when he
Speaker 2: left the presidency and was assassinated, left the country in
Speaker 2: peace and prosperity. He failed to mention the Vietnam War.
Speaker 2: But that's fine, that's okay. Everyone's kind of seeing through
Speaker 2: rose colored glasses. I think the VP pick, I think
Speaker 2: it's interesting for two reasons. I think with the VP pick,
Speaker 2: whatever her name is, I totally forgot it. Actually, pick
Speaker 2: Shanahan is her last thing. Yeah, with Shanahan, it's definitely
Speaker 2: looking more like a center left campaign than a center
Speaker 2: right campaign, because that's what he was trying to do.
Speaker 2: He was trying to kind of forge that middle ground.
Speaker 2: And she's talking about you know, chronic diseases and a
Speaker 2: lot of social justice stuff. She's not going to attract
Speaker 2: a lot of right wingers to her cause. I think
Speaker 2: the fact that she's like this Asian vegan woman from
Speaker 2: California is definitely not the same thing as if you
Speaker 2: would have picked that form of baseball player like that
Speaker 2: would have been a much different vibe than than you know,
Speaker 2: than than who he than Shanahan. I think she was
Speaker 2: a pick primarily for her money, although they probably agree ideologically.
Speaker 2: Her announcement speech was a little like a Ted talk
Speaker 2: more than you know, just a speech, a presidential speech.
Speaker 1: Did did you see the the Native American like chanting
Speaker 1: slash apology thing before? I have a rule. I have
Speaker 1: a rule Ryan. Anyone who starts off a meeting with
Speaker 1: a Native American apology for stealing your land thing. I
Speaker 1: don't trust. I don't trust them. That that is my rule.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's definitely giving left wing vibes. I don't
Speaker 2: think that it's right when vibes at all. But I
Speaker 2: will say, I mean, if Cornell West gets on more states,
Speaker 2: and if RFK Junior gets on more states, if that's
Speaker 2: the vibe, I don't see how. Yeah, there would be
Speaker 2: some crunchy Republicans who like care a lot about vaccines
Speaker 2: who might really like RFKG here and they care about
Speaker 2: chronic diseases. It's a bit of a It's an important issue,
Speaker 2: but it's a niche issue. And if they're doing Native
Speaker 2: American tribal dances and reparations for slavery, there's only one
Speaker 2: kind of voter that really attracts, and that's either black
Speaker 2: voters who like the Kennedy brand or very very very
Speaker 2: liberal white voters.
Speaker 1: Need I need you to just narrow this one down
Speaker 1: for me, because you see Trump on truth social it's
Speaker 1: now worth billions of dollars in public traded markets. Welcome
Speaker 1: to America, everybody, this is the country we live in.
Speaker 1: It's pretty amazing. But Trump tweeted, tweeted truth doubt Like
Speaker 1: RFK is a left wing lunatic basically, but I'm glad
Speaker 1: he's running because he'll take more Biden votes. Are let's
Speaker 1: say that he gets on, meaning RFK Junior, a bunch
Speaker 1: of different like twenty different states, and so he's on
Speaker 1: you know, at least three or four important swing states, right,
Speaker 1: let's say that that happens, or even just three or
Speaker 1: four important swing states, forget about the overall number. Are
Speaker 1: we very highly confident based on what we can see
Speaker 1: in the data that he will take more Biden than
Speaker 1: Trump votes or is that very much still TBD?
Speaker 2: I think it's I think it's I believe it's probably
Speaker 2: more well in fact, that Biden is attacking him aggressively.
Speaker 2: Biden's already released his first ad against RFK Junior. That
Speaker 2: shows you the amount that they fear he resonates because
Speaker 2: it is only one percent or two percent in some
Speaker 2: of these states that will move the whole election. And
Speaker 2: I think they know that, and RFK nationally, she'll probably
Speaker 2: get somewhere between two and five percent of the vote
Speaker 2: at the current rate he's that, I imagine, I mean, the
Speaker 2: independent vote is always higher in the end of the
Speaker 2: year and always gets lower as the year goes on,
Speaker 2: So that I think is really problematic for his candidacy.
Speaker 2: But if he's able to get on and really kind
Speaker 2: of be an issues candidate that talks about things that
Speaker 2: people care about, I think you'll either A see I
Speaker 2: didn't start trying to capitalize on his issues. I think
Speaker 2: that Cornell West is going to run completely on a
Speaker 2: pro Hamas pro Palestine thing, and he's going to try
Speaker 2: to get those Palestine voters for his campaign. I think
Speaker 2: that RFK Junior really cares with healthcare a lot and
Speaker 2: chronic disease, and it's very what he's saying is not wrong.
Speaker 2: I mean, it is not wrong that we are in
Speaker 2: a very sick and morbally obese country. I just think
Speaker 2: that when you're talking about what pesticides are being used
Speaker 2: and what, you know, what did she talk about she
Speaker 2: says something.
Speaker 1: Like that, I just feel like RFK is running to
Speaker 1: be somebody else's like EPA chief or something, you know
Speaker 1: what I'm saying, like to me or FDA. I mean,
Speaker 1: it doesn't seem like I know enough even about what
Speaker 1: he thinks generally philosophically about government to know, like, what
Speaker 1: is this guy all about? Right? He's good on the
Speaker 1: COVID stuff, okay, right.
Speaker 2: And he's on immigration on the border. Yeah, Like he
Speaker 2: does talk about positive on the border. We need a
Speaker 2: border wall. He does say those things. But every time
Speaker 2: I've heard him essentially tall, I mean he talks about
Speaker 2: bringing back manufacturing, he does mention these things. His ad
Speaker 2: was like, we used to make blue jeans in this
Speaker 2: country and we don't make anything anymore. That's not an
Speaker 2: uncompelling ad for people, But the vibe you give out
Speaker 2: it matters a lot. I don't necessarily think he gives off.
Speaker 2: He doesn't even remind me of his father and uncle.
Speaker 2: I think that he gives off. I think he gives
Speaker 2: off much more of a left wing coastal you know, elite.
Speaker 2: I mean, for crying aloud. You know, he's the godfather
Speaker 2: of Glenn Close's daughter and his ex wife was on
Speaker 2: Curby your enthusiasm. This is not a man or his
Speaker 2: current wife rather was on Curby ruthuism. It's not a
Speaker 2: man who's really moving into Michigan and marching in Mississippi
Speaker 2: for the poverty strikes with MLK like his dad did.
Speaker 2: This is somebody who is very much giving the sense
Speaker 2: that he is a very early person. But there's a
Speaker 2: lot of disenfranchised voters on all sides who don't like
Speaker 2: Trump and who don't like Biden, who will be probably
Speaker 2: casting a valid for him out of protest, and maybe
Speaker 2: he'll get a few issues voters, and that's what really matters,
Speaker 2: if he can pick up like the whole Hamas is
Speaker 2: a genocidal thing, or Biden is too old voters and
Speaker 2: who knows.
Speaker 1: All right, we're going to come back in and you're
Speaker 1: going to answer this question for me, Ryan, I was
Speaker 1: asked this at a live event recently. Who is going
Speaker 1: to win the House? Control of the House and why
Speaker 1: We're going to get to that with you in a second.
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Speaker 1: you was who's going in the House and why? What
Speaker 1: do you think?
Speaker 2: So the House has never the House has only flipped
Speaker 2: I think once where they're president is one the the
Speaker 2: House is flipped in the other direction from the presidency
Speaker 2: right now. Poles have Trump. I reve as for my subsecond,
Speaker 2: the national copy subsect high quality polls holes that are
Speaker 2: really well reviewed, well sourced, and well trusted. They come
Speaker 2: from a variety people answer from text message and email
Speaker 2: and live callers versus just internet poles. They are They
Speaker 2: show Trump with about a one point five to two
Speaker 2: to two and a half percent of a national advantage,
Speaker 2: which is extremely large, largest he's ever had in his
Speaker 2: entire all three candidacies online polls or lower lower value
Speaker 2: polls that showed Biden actually edging Trump out for the
Speaker 2: very first time in six or seven months. The national
Speaker 2: election electorate in twenty twenty two was a two point
Speaker 2: Republican majority, and Republicans got a bare minimum of the
Speaker 2: popular vote. If it is, oh, I'm sorry, of the
Speaker 2: House in twenty twenty two. If it is, if it's
Speaker 2: looking like those hyperpency polls are right and Trump is
Speaker 2: not gonna win but win the popular vote, Republicans are
Speaker 2: still not going to win the House by that much.
Speaker 2: You're talking about probably you know, ten to fifteen seat
Speaker 2: majority at the very very most, just because a lot
Speaker 2: of states have been jerrymandered six ways from Sunday.
Speaker 1: You know, New.
Speaker 2: Jersey, there's only three House seats that Republicans really can
Speaker 2: win in New Jersey. There's only three maybe four in Illinois, California,
Speaker 2: maybe one or two that Republicans currently don't hold. It
Speaker 2: is the most borrow of margins. New Mexico is maybe one,
Speaker 2: we like capped out of Florida, Republicans have no seats
Speaker 2: that currently are not Republican that they can hope to
Speaker 2: win in Florida, they have no seats in In Georgia
Speaker 2: they have won. They have none. In North Carolina they
Speaker 2: have well're going to pick up the three in North Carolina.
Speaker 2: Besides that they're done. Virginia has one, West Virginia zero,
Speaker 2: Ohio has two. Indiana maybe has won. There's not many though,
Speaker 2: everywhere where it's going to matter. Where the where it's
Speaker 2: going to matter if Republicans win is in the blue
Speaker 2: state Republicans. There are I think fourteen Republicans right in
Speaker 2: Africa because of George Sanders leaving. Maybe there's maybe it's
Speaker 2: thirteen thirteen Republicans who are in Biden districts. If those
Speaker 2: thirteen Republicans can hold on and they can pick up
Speaker 2: the few Democrats who are in Trump districts, then they'll
Speaker 2: hold on. But it's those thirteen Biden Republicans are what
Speaker 2: really matter.
Speaker 1: But Joe, you think that there's a good shot Republicans
Speaker 1: could could maintain that House, then it sounds like that vote.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if Trump win's the popular vote, if he gets
Speaker 2: with him, if these hyper pency poles are correct, and
Speaker 2: he continues going on, I know the media saying, you know,
Speaker 2: inflation isn't great now, and you know, things are things
Speaker 2: are all wonderful.
Speaker 1: He's Biden to get that.
Speaker 2: Amazing State of the Union speech, and he's on the
Speaker 2: up and up, and he's showing he's got energy. I
Speaker 2: don't know how well that media narrative is actually working.
Speaker 2: Aside from these Internet poles, but I don't particularly see
Speaker 2: it the state polling that high quality state poles that
Speaker 2: have come out in the last three weeks have all
Speaker 2: been very good for Trump. The Maris poles in Texas
Speaker 2: and in it was North Carolina and Arizona, and the
Speaker 2: Des Moines registered pole in Iowa all very very well,
Speaker 2: well sourced, high quality polling, all were very very good
Speaker 2: for Trump.
Speaker 1: I want to ask you in just a second to
Speaker 1: tell us how they think they turned this against Trump,
Speaker 1: or you know, switch the momentum around so that Biden
Speaker 1: is at least starting to even out the field, if
Speaker 1: not pull ahead. We'll get to that in a second.
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Speaker 1: what's the plan? Is it just democracies and peril? Trump
Speaker 1: is hitler, and uh, they're not gonna let you get
Speaker 1: abortions all nine months of a pregnancy like it. It
Speaker 1: just feels like that can't be.
Speaker 2: Enough to certain voters. It's enough for sure, but they're there.
Speaker 2: They are emphasizing that Trump's second term is going to
Speaker 2: be a blood bath. I mean we heard that, we
Speaker 2: heard the term blood was a blood bath, right, That's
Speaker 2: what he said there and said about the cars. Yes, yeah,
Speaker 2: that was like, I mean, end of the world a
Speaker 2: style conversation. And at the same time, you have here's
Speaker 2: the problem. You have a niche group of Republicans nationwide
Speaker 2: who are making the party seem very weird to average voters.
Speaker 2: They're scaring the normies the Alabama IVF case for example.
Speaker 2: All of these little things say to moderate voters who
Speaker 2: are let's say, double haters. Double haters are really who
Speaker 2: deicizes this election and people who hate both trum Biden
Speaker 2: and Trump. Back last year, back when I was very pessimistic,
Speaker 2: that's when the Wall Street Journal for Brizio Lepole said
Speaker 2: that the double haters were voting for Biden by fifty points.
Speaker 2: The most recent poll, I think it was the Maris
Speaker 2: Texas poll said that they were voting now for Biden
Speaker 2: by five points. Trump had closed the gap with people
Speaker 2: who hate both Trump and Biden. And if you look
Speaker 2: at the five thirty eight average. This is the first
Speaker 2: time that Biden's approval r's are actually worse than Trump's.
Speaker 2: If you, I think they they are a disasbrating the
Speaker 2: divide and they get back those people by Satana saying
Speaker 2: he really is a rec lose. He's really, you know,
Speaker 2: he's really he's going to prison. He's got all these trials,
Speaker 2: he you know, all this money. He can't be trusted.
Speaker 2: Look at all of his former aids who hate him. Now,
Speaker 2: why would you vote for this chaos? And I think
Speaker 2: them selling camp is the message over Biden nomic. They're
Speaker 2: dropped Biden. I don't know if you said the access
Speaker 2: to that came out Accio's report having times Biden has
Speaker 2: said Biden nominal so the last few months and it's
Speaker 2: gone from like eighteen times in a month to zero.
Speaker 2: He doesn't speak about that at all anymore. That messaging failed.
Speaker 2: People personally don't feel good about the economy every time
Speaker 2: they go to the grocery store. Inflation is still higher
Speaker 2: than what people would like it to be, and you
Speaker 2: have high interest rates at the home mortgages where people
Speaker 2: feel like they can't buy their first home. Gaza has
Speaker 2: definitely splintered a portion and a fraction of the Democratic Party.
Speaker 2: The Gallup poll show that a majority of Democrats support
Speaker 2: Gaza over Israel, and that's definitely splinting over some Arab
Speaker 2: There's a lot of things going wrong for him. So
Speaker 2: sometimes you are unified by the people as you hate
Speaker 2: in common. Certainly, in twenty sixteen, Trump won a lot
Speaker 2: of people who just could not bring themselves to allow
Speaker 2: Hillary Cling to be president. That hatred for Hillary was
Speaker 2: enough to unite people who didn't like Trump. Biden is
Speaker 2: hoping that that happens again, that the hatred for Trump
Speaker 2: is so strong, it's strong enough for strong enough to
Speaker 2: elect to re elect him despite everything going.
Speaker 1: Wrong for him. Before we let you go, and everyone
Speaker 1: should check out the National Populas newsletter. I'm a subscriber.
Speaker 1: It's great, Ryan's Substack newsletter. Uh, you have a Springsteen
Speaker 1: T shirt on? Is this because is this because there
Speaker 1: was a special deal for two dollars at the thrift store?
Speaker 1: Or is this because you are a Bruce Springsteen fan.
Speaker 2: Bruce Springsteen was like the soundtrack of my father's life.
Speaker 2: And I've seen him concert probably seven times. He is
Speaker 2: the greatest living.
Speaker 1: Life Before Oh my god, he is.
Speaker 2: Artist and he's the greatest living life performance.
Speaker 1: This is terrified. Ryan is so wise on so many pigs,
Speaker 1: the most the most overrated musician or you know, music
Speaker 1: act in modern history, like America anywhere Bruce Springsteen has
Speaker 1: got one song, it's not even that good. Everybody didn't
Speaker 1: even get one song. I can't. I can't even so
Speaker 1: much for music.
Speaker 2: That's like people who want to hate Bob Dylan or
Speaker 2: the Beatles because they're like, oh, you know their.
Speaker 1: Own Bob Dylan sucks, Bob Dylan sucks. Bob Dylan? Can wait?
Speaker 2: Can I tell you a good story?
Speaker 1: I was with him.
Speaker 2: I was out a dinner with his grandson and who
Speaker 2: was like an arms dealer or something now, and I
Speaker 2: was like, this is like the depressing decline of America.
Speaker 2: But I had nothing to talk to him about. And
Speaker 2: so I texted a friend and I was like, who,
Speaker 2: what do I ask Bob Dylan's grandson? They go ask
Speaker 2: him if his grandfather banged Evie Sedgwick. So I looked
Speaker 2: over him and go, did your grandfather bang Edie Sedgwick?
Speaker 2: And he goes, what? I go? Did he? I just
Speaker 2: need to know? And he was like, no, he did it,
Speaker 2: and I was like, okay, cool. That was the last
Speaker 2: eightie Sedgwick, who's that? Yeah? Don't talk about culture, Buck,
Speaker 2: don't talk about culture.
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, all right, I gotta stick down.
Speaker 2: It was Andy Warhol and Bob Dylan's muse and in
Speaker 2: the sixties, and Andy Warhol got her addicted to heroin.
Speaker 2: She died tragically, but she was an eight girl of
Speaker 2: the late sixties. Look or ask somebody.
Speaker 1: I don't know, ask somebody, I'll figure something out. Subscribe
Speaker 1: to Ryan's newsletter. Just don't listen to you. Don't listen
Speaker 1: to his you know, kay won't know. Just listen to
Speaker 1: listen to his politics, not his music taste. Don't go
Speaker 1: get his spristy and T shirt Ryan or Dusk everybody, Ryan,
Speaker 1: thank you, Welcome,