WEBVTT - Trump Gets No Jail Time or Probation in NY Hush Money Case 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:10.560 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:14.480 Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:18.439 Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 0:00:18.600 --> 0:00:21.840 Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 0:00:21.920 --> 0:00:24.600 us live on YouTube. 0:00:24.800 --> 0:00:27.320 Other major news story just crossing the tape of breaking 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:30.400 this morning. Donald Trump, the first former US president convicted 0:00:30.440 --> 0:00:32.280 of a felony, was sentenced by a New York judge 0:00:32.280 --> 0:00:36.520 Friday to no jail or probation for his hush money case. 0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:39.959 Joinings right now is June Grassol, Bloomberg's legal analyst. 0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:43.040 Here, June. No surprises here for you, No. 0:00:43.040 --> 0:00:45.320 Really, no surprises at all. I thought it would take 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:47.240 much longer if Trump decided to speak. 0:00:47.320 --> 0:00:48.240 So he did give a. 0:00:48.120 --> 0:00:51.640 Little rambling speech, echoing things that he said over and 0:00:51.680 --> 0:00:53.760 over again, how this is a witch hunt, how it's 0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:57.640 not fair even talking though about the election. He got 0:00:57.680 --> 0:00:59.920 a few things in there. So, I mean, this is 0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:02.200 what the judge had said he was going to do. 0:01:02.240 --> 0:01:05.080 He was going to sentence him to an unconditional release. 0:01:05.120 --> 0:01:07.559 There was not going to be any kind of prison time, 0:01:07.640 --> 0:01:11.400 no penalties, no fines, nothing. It's just the stigma of 0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:14.840 now being a convicted felon and in ten days being 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:18.000 the first president to be sworn in as the President 0:01:18.000 --> 0:01:21.120 of the United States as a convicted felon. I think 0:01:21.160 --> 0:01:23.160 that's what he's been trying to avoid all along. 0:01:23.720 --> 0:01:26.640 Well, Juna does say that Trump plans to appeal the 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:30.360 verdict and seek to overturn his conviction through the appeals process. 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:32.640 What would that look like. What is the likelihood of 0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:33.280 that outcome? 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:38.400 Well, so Trump has appealed just about every decision legal 0:01:38.440 --> 0:01:41.560 decision that has been handed down against him, So this 0:01:41.680 --> 0:01:44.480 is no surprise. He's already started to appeal some of 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:46.800 the motions and some of the things the judge did. 0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:50.600 So what happens is once the sentence is handed down, 0:01:50.640 --> 0:01:52.720 I have about thirty days to say whether or not 0:01:52.760 --> 0:01:56.600 they're going to appeal, and then they do their arguments 0:01:56.640 --> 0:02:00.200 in an appellate brief to the Appellate Division in this case, 0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:03.040 and then he can Probably he'll probably appeal whatever they 0:02:03.080 --> 0:02:05.320 say if it's not good for him, to the highest 0:02:05.320 --> 0:02:06.800 court in New York, which is the New York Court 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:09.400 of Appeals, and most likely to the Supreme Court, because 0:02:09.400 --> 0:02:15.359 he's going to be arguing about these presidential immunity decisions 0:02:15.400 --> 0:02:18.160 and whether they affected In other words, what happened here 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:21.399 is he said after that presidential immunity decision came out, 0:02:21.440 --> 0:02:24.520 he said that Judge Mrchon shouldn't have allowed in some 0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:27.639 of the testimony from example, for Hope Picks, which had 0:02:27.639 --> 0:02:30.640 taken place in the White House, because that was done 0:02:30.680 --> 0:02:33.920 in the course of his presidential duties. Judge Marchon disagreed 0:02:33.960 --> 0:02:36.880 with that and also said that there was overwhelming evidence, 0:02:36.919 --> 0:02:39.280 so that wasn't even needed for the jury. So that's 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:42.240 going to be one, definitely one of his points of appeal. 0:02:43.000 --> 0:02:44.960 What else is out there for the president? Like most people, 0:02:45.000 --> 0:02:47.120 I can't keep track, and I think it feels like 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:50.560 most of them are rather resolved or dismissed or well. 0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:53.280 When he takes office, nothing is going to happen to 0:02:53.360 --> 0:02:56.360 him at all for four years because they won't go 0:02:56.400 --> 0:02:59.840 after there's no prosecution of sitting presidents. The Georgia case 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:04.919 still sort of hanging around in appellate courts. 0:03:04.360 --> 0:03:06.680 It was the. 0:03:06.520 --> 0:03:09.600 Prosecutor there was thrown out because of a relationship with 0:03:09.680 --> 0:03:13.120 another prosecutor on the case, So that's left that very tenuous. 0:03:13.840 --> 0:03:14.560 That case is. 0:03:14.520 --> 0:03:18.359 Still there, But I mean, really most he'll just have appeals, 0:03:18.400 --> 0:03:21.320 the appeals of this, and the classified document case goes 0:03:21.320 --> 0:03:22.160 forward without him. 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:25.119 Something else in front of the Supreme Court, that TikTok 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:29.240 price for hundreds of millions of people out there, I think, 0:03:29.480 --> 0:03:30.080 care about this? 0:03:30.440 --> 0:03:31.919 What do you expect this to play out? 0:03:32.400 --> 0:03:34.679 You know, this is hard, and I'm about to try 0:03:34.680 --> 0:03:37.160 to listen to the oral arguments, so we'll try to 0:03:37.200 --> 0:03:39.520 see how the justices feel. It's very hard because in 0:03:39.520 --> 0:03:42.800 this case, the United States is claiming that this is 0:03:42.800 --> 0:03:46.000 a matter of national security, and with matters of national security, 0:03:46.440 --> 0:03:49.520 the justices usually leave it up to the executive branch 0:03:49.520 --> 0:03:51.920 when the executive branch has a lot of authority and 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:54.880 there's deference to the executive branch. But at the same time, 0:03:55.320 --> 0:03:57.920 you know, the First Amendment experts I've spoken to talk 0:03:57.960 --> 0:04:00.800 about this as a First Amendment violation, the violation of 0:04:00.800 --> 0:04:03.040 the First Amendment rights of the millions and millions of 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:06.240 people who are on TikTok and who don't have any 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:09.720 other way to express themselves exactly the way they do 0:04:09.840 --> 0:04:13.040 on TikTok. So we'll see what happens. It's one thing 0:04:13.120 --> 0:04:14.680 is for sure, it's going to be a very fast 0:04:14.720 --> 0:04:16.880 decision because they're going to come down with it before 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:18.159 the band goes into effect. 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:20.840 I know, president like Donald Trump has also spoken out 0:04:20.880 --> 0:04:23.760 about his view on this whole idea of the TikTok ban. 0:04:24.320 --> 0:04:26.080 How much of a sway does it even seem that 0:04:26.120 --> 0:04:28.080 he would be able to make toward this decision. 0:04:28.480 --> 0:04:31.839 Well, he has been his views as on many things 0:04:31.839 --> 0:04:34.720 have been varying. On TikTok he was against it than 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:37.720 for it, against it, now he is apparently for it. 0:04:37.760 --> 0:04:41.479 He submitted a brief to the Supreme Court as the 0:04:41.680 --> 0:04:45.640 upcoming president, the president elects saying that the court should 0:04:45.680 --> 0:04:49.960 delay the law going into effects so that he could 0:04:49.960 --> 0:04:52.599 come in and solve the problem. And it talked about 0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:55.800 him being a master deal maker and how he's the 0:04:55.839 --> 0:04:58.880 only one who can come in and solve this whole problem. 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:00.919 I mean, how much that carries. 0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:03.080 We have to see. All right, Judan, thank you so much. 0:05:03.120 --> 0:05:03.640 We appreciate it. 0:05:03.720 --> 0:05:07.520 June Grosso, a legal analyst for Bloomberg, giving us the 0:05:07.600 --> 0:05:10.480 latest on the sentence handing down from the New York 0:05:10.480 --> 0:05:13.400 Court here in President Trump, as well as the oral 0:05:13.480 --> 0:05:16.119 arguments being heard right now in the US Supreme Court 0:05:16.160 --> 0:05:19.080 regarding TikTok and the ownership there. 0:05:19.120 --> 0:05:21.479 So we'll keep in touch with June. 0:05:22.600 --> 0:05:26.520 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch the program 0:05:26.600 --> 0:05:30.039 live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android 0:05:30.040 --> 0:05:33.039 Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen 0:05:33.160 --> 0:05:36.400 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 0:05:36.960 --> 0:05:40.240 Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:05:40.600 --> 0:05:42.680 It is normal Linda sitting in for Alex deal on 0:05:42.720 --> 0:05:46.720 Paul Swinginger live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio, streaming. 0:05:46.320 --> 0:05:47.560 Live on YouTube as well. 0:05:47.880 --> 0:05:50.680 Let me get to the economic data points we saw today, 0:05:50.680 --> 0:05:52.839 particularly the job zumbers. We can do that with Jeffrey Cleveland, 0:05:52.880 --> 0:05:55.400 chief economist for Peydon and Regal. Jeffrey, thank you so 0:05:55.480 --> 0:05:58.120 much for joining us. Jeffrey, I know you're based in 0:05:58.200 --> 0:06:01.839 Los Angeles. You know, terrible situation out there. I wonder 0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:03.320 if we could just get a couple of minutes from you. 0:06:03.320 --> 0:06:05.480 You're right on the ground there in Los Angeles. Uh, 0:06:05.640 --> 0:06:09.360 kind of what's the experience like, Well, it's I. 0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:13.479 Mean, condolences to all the families who've lost property and 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:16.640 loved ones and you know, big shout out to all 0:06:16.680 --> 0:06:19.719 the first responders. I think it's it's just amazing working 0:06:19.720 --> 0:06:22.760 through the night here to to try and keep things 0:06:22.760 --> 0:06:25.800 in check. I mean, this is an ongoing situation. We're 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:29.040 still in the midst of it. You know. Fortunately, in 0:06:29.120 --> 0:06:33.240 my personal situation, we've been very fortunate, and it's great 0:06:33.279 --> 0:06:35.640 to see the community in Los Angeles, a lot of 0:06:35.680 --> 0:06:38.200 neighbors coming together and helping each other. 0:06:38.240 --> 0:06:40.359 So I think that that's been you know, you know, 0:06:40.480 --> 0:06:41.680 one positive. 0:06:41.240 --> 0:06:44.080 Aspect of this, of this whole affair, all right, Jeffrey, 0:06:44.080 --> 0:06:46.479 our thoughts and fairs are obviously with our good friends 0:06:46.480 --> 0:06:48.799 out there in Los Angeles, So you guys stay safe. 0:06:49.240 --> 0:06:53.080 Jeffrey, we had a really really strong nonfoum payrolls a 0:06:53.160 --> 0:06:53.880 number here today. 0:06:54.120 --> 0:06:55.240 What were your takeaways. 0:06:56.000 --> 0:06:58.400 I mean, I think it's marvelous. I mean, all things considered. 0:06:58.480 --> 0:07:01.240 You know, I'm usually very up beat. It's kind of 0:07:01.240 --> 0:07:03.360 hard to be upbeat, you know, here in LA on 0:07:03.400 --> 0:07:05.760 a day like this, but you know, the job's data 0:07:05.760 --> 0:07:06.239 is excellent. 0:07:07.240 --> 0:07:10.280 You know. I guess a few myths that have been debunked. 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:12.760 One was that, you know, Paul high rates, we're going 0:07:12.840 --> 0:07:14.120 to derail the economy. 0:07:14.560 --> 0:07:15.920 It just really hasn't happened. 0:07:16.560 --> 0:07:20.120 Average payroll growth in twenty twenty four, I guess when 0:07:20.120 --> 0:07:21.720 all things are said and done, looks like it'll be 0:07:21.760 --> 0:07:24.600 around one hundred and eighty six thousand monthly average pace, 0:07:25.000 --> 0:07:27.200 which is a little bit slower than twenty twenty three, 0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:31.280 but excellent job growth. It's keeping that unemployment rate just 0:07:31.320 --> 0:07:34.720 above four percent for the last seven months, really, which 0:07:34.720 --> 0:07:37.440 is really remarkable the stability we're seeing there. So I 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:41.200 think this is a great jobs report all things considered. 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:45.000 If inflation continues to moderate, this is really the soft 0:07:45.080 --> 0:07:48.080 landing that we had been hoping for, and definitely the 0:07:48.080 --> 0:07:49.800 FED has been hoping for it. So it's all around 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:51.880 great news actually on all fronts for me. 0:07:52.560 --> 0:07:55.120 So, Jeffrey, this was obviously good news and when we 0:07:55.160 --> 0:07:57.320 think about the strength of the US economy, But of 0:07:57.320 --> 0:07:59.920 course there are some speculations about how this could affect 0:08:00.240 --> 0:08:02.600 the Fed's rate cut trajectory. Of course, you mentioned that 0:08:02.640 --> 0:08:05.720 there is still scope for rate cuts in twenty twenty five, 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:09.120 but when what's the timeline being in your view. 0:08:09.640 --> 0:08:12.680 I think the most important message for investors is that 0:08:12.920 --> 0:08:16.360 the FED is not trying to slow the economy or 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:19.840 soften the labor market. I think the very content with 0:08:19.880 --> 0:08:22.120 where things are. As far as the labor market being 0:08:22.240 --> 0:08:26.000 a threat to the inflation outlook, I think those risks 0:08:26.040 --> 0:08:29.280 have diminished. So average hourly earnings back below four percent, 0:08:29.960 --> 0:08:33.720 So we're not in that situation where we were two 0:08:33.760 --> 0:08:35.760 years ago where people were worried about a wage price 0:08:36.120 --> 0:08:38.360 sort of spiral. So I don't think the Fed needs 0:08:38.360 --> 0:08:41.240 to try to slow the labor market. They would like 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:42.800 to stick the landing, they would like to get a 0:08:42.800 --> 0:08:45.880 soft landing, but I think they can be patient from here. 0:08:46.200 --> 0:08:49.040 I think for us that means waiting to see if 0:08:49.120 --> 0:08:54.320 inflation continues to moderate. We got a very favorable core 0:08:54.400 --> 0:08:57.559 PCEE reading for November, just you know, just before the 0:08:57.640 --> 0:08:59.959 end of the year. So if we get more readings 0:09:00.120 --> 0:09:02.680 like that to start twenty twenty five, I think that 0:09:02.679 --> 0:09:04.680 could be very good news. So I think they could wait, 0:09:05.040 --> 0:09:07.880 be patient. No urgency to cut rates, but we do 0:09:07.920 --> 0:09:10.280 think they will cut rates over the course of the year. 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:13.600 Right now, we're still penciled in at one cut per quarter, 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:16.800 so about one hundred basis points, but that's really driven 0:09:16.840 --> 0:09:20.319 by inflation getting back to two percent at some point. 0:09:20.800 --> 0:09:22.400 Yeah, and it looks like, you know, I'm just looking 0:09:22.400 --> 0:09:24.320 at the University of Michigan data and they have obviously 0:09:24.360 --> 0:09:27.160 some one year inflation outlook five to ten year inflation 0:09:27.160 --> 0:09:29.000 out looks. Both of those ticked up to about three 0:09:29.040 --> 0:09:31.560 point three percent, you know, much higher, well, I guess, 0:09:31.559 --> 0:09:34.000 noticeably higher than worth they were last month, and higher 0:09:34.040 --> 0:09:36.200 than maybe the consensus forecast there. 0:09:36.400 --> 0:09:37.840 What do you think that data reflects. 0:09:38.320 --> 0:09:40.680 I think that reflects sentiment, Paul. I mean, you do. 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:44.400 Every client that I talk to, colleagues and friends and 0:09:44.400 --> 0:09:48.280 family members, they're definitely worried that inflation will pick back up, 0:09:49.040 --> 0:09:51.880 whether you know that's something they're seeing in their day 0:09:51.920 --> 0:09:54.840 to day or it's just the fear maybe some economic 0:09:54.880 --> 0:09:57.800 policy policy shifts that are going to be enacted here 0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:00.520 that will push inflation back up. That's definitely power fear 0:10:00.760 --> 0:10:02.680 that you hear express. So maybe that's been showing up 0:10:02.720 --> 0:10:04.959 in sentiment indicators. Looking at the end, you know, the 0:10:05.280 --> 0:10:09.720 actual data though for core PCE, we're pretty pretty optimistic, Paul. 0:10:09.960 --> 0:10:10.439 We had that. 0:10:10.400 --> 0:10:13.760 Point one percent month to month reading for November, and 0:10:13.920 --> 0:10:16.080 you know, when we run the numbers, it's possible core 0:10:16.120 --> 0:10:19.439 PC gets to two percent year on year by sometime 0:10:19.480 --> 0:10:22.320 in the third quarter of this year. Of twenty twenty five, 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:25.720 which will be which will be fantastic news for everyone, 0:10:25.720 --> 0:10:30.160 for consumers especially, So I think that's maybe sentiment driving 0:10:30.200 --> 0:10:32.959 things more than actual inflation data that we're seeing. 0:10:33.600 --> 0:10:36.559 Jeffrey quickly, what was the driving force behind the pickup 0:10:36.640 --> 0:10:38.320 in the December payrolls numbers? 0:10:39.679 --> 0:10:42.280 Well, I mean, I think, you know, across the board, 0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:46.640 the surprise here is probably the government payrolls that being 0:10:46.679 --> 0:10:52.000 in there, leisure and hospitality. I think overall, just everyone's 0:10:52.080 --> 0:10:54.920 expecting that the higher interest rates we're going to lead 0:10:54.960 --> 0:10:57.960 to a cool down, a bit more notable slowdown, and 0:10:58.000 --> 0:11:00.560 we really, we really haven't seen that. The The three 0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:03.520 month moving average was one hundred and seventy k so 0:11:03.720 --> 0:11:07.400 even if you exclude the December reading, you still see 0:11:07.920 --> 0:11:10.320 pretty solid three month average. 0:11:10.400 --> 0:11:12.080 So just a lot more. 0:11:11.960 --> 0:11:14.880 Resilience overall in the pace of payrolls the last few months, 0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:16.440 and many people had expected. 0:11:16.600 --> 0:11:16.800 Hie. 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.080 Jeffrey, thank you so much for We appreciate it. Jeffrey Cleveland, 0:11:19.200 --> 0:11:21.920 chief economist, paid in Narrigo. He is based in Los Angeles, 0:11:21.960 --> 0:11:23.760 so we wish him and all our good friends in 0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:25.560 Los Angeles god speed here as they deal with this 0:11:25.880 --> 0:11:26.800 these fires. 0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:31.720 Here you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us 0:11:31.800 --> 0:11:34.840 live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and 0:11:34.840 --> 0:11:38.120 Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:42.120 wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:45.800 The economic data point of the day, of course, was the. 0:11:47.600 --> 0:11:51.199 Labor data payroll number coming out change non farm payroll 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:53.640 came out in two hundred and fifty six thousand, and 0:11:53.760 --> 0:11:56.000 consentsus was one hundred and sixty five thousand, So a 0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:58.400 big beat in terms of the labor marketing receiving movement 0:11:58.400 --> 0:12:00.160 in the financial markets. 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:02.080 Old of that, let's break that number down a little bit. 0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:06.360 We can do that with Kate Dushane, CEO of RGP. Kate, 0:12:06.400 --> 0:12:10.640 thanks so much for joining us here. Again, a big print, 0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:12.960 big beat on that headline print. 0:12:13.000 --> 0:12:14.880 What did you take away? 0:12:15.240 --> 0:12:15.440 Well? 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:19.079 I think that tells us that the labor market continues 0:12:19.160 --> 0:12:22.559 to be very strong. I think that's a good indication, 0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:26.200 although it will put a pause probably on interest rate cuts, 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:29.400 but it does tell us that the market is stronger 0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:32.439 than we've all believed. 0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:35.640 How are you thinking about it? In the mix of 0:12:35.760 --> 0:12:38.200 the outlook for how the FAG can be viewing rake 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:39.440 cuts in twenty twenty five. 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:44.680 Well, I think it probably portends a pause in January 0:12:44.720 --> 0:12:47.920 and we'll see where we go. What we need to 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:52.440 see is more movement in the labor market, not just 0:12:52.640 --> 0:12:59.199 new jobs, but movement that really tells us that projects 0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:02.439 are starting to have up and so many companies are 0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:08.880 facing technological change and disruption, and we need to see 0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:13.800 more transactional work come back into the marketplace, and that 0:13:14.040 --> 0:13:20.600 then will signal that really post election, the economic market 0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:21.439 is improving. 0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:24.439 Kate, how about on the wage front here, we had 0:13:24.520 --> 0:13:26.920 average hourly earnings on a year of a year basis 0:13:26.920 --> 0:13:29.199 came in a positive three point nine percent, just a 0:13:29.240 --> 0:13:31.280 smidge below the four percent consensus. 0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:33.960 What's the wage market look like. 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:37.960 Well, I think it's been strong, but it's i'd say 0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:41.760 cooling slightly. This is an interesting time of year because 0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:44.839 the quits rate is down, but that's to be expected 0:13:44.920 --> 0:13:47.959 given that so many companies are year end and they 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:50.920 are paying bonuses in the first quarter of the new 0:13:50.960 --> 0:13:53.720 calendar year, so people tend to stay put a little 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:56.400 bit to get their bonuses and then start moving around. 0:13:56.920 --> 0:14:00.480 We are cautiously optimistic that we're going to start seeing 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:04.480 more talent movement. It's been pretty stagnant the last twelve 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:08.880 months as people have gotten more conservative in their thinking, 0:14:09.040 --> 0:14:13.800 both clients spending money and talent moving. But we're cautiously 0:14:13.840 --> 0:14:16.960 optimistic that that's opening up in the new calendar year 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:23.320 post election, when economic activity may pick up with deregulation, 0:14:23.800 --> 0:14:24.720 tax cuts, etc. 0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:28.880 What were the main drivers behind this big blowout report? 0:14:28.960 --> 0:14:31.360 We saw a big beat this morning. What was driving that? 0:14:32.280 --> 0:14:36.640 Yeah, mostly it was in retail, hospitality, healthcare, and government. 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:39.200 So you know, you have to look at where the 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:43.680 activity is strongest, and it's not absolutely across the board. 0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:47.120 I think manufacturing was down as a matter of fact, 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:49.720 So you know, when you look at a report like this, 0:14:49.920 --> 0:14:52.000 you've got to dig into the detail to say how 0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:55.080 does it impact particular segments of business. 0:14:56.880 --> 0:15:00.520 We had news this week that's really important too, Global 0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:03.640 Wall Street JP Morgan announced they want everybody back in 0:15:03.680 --> 0:15:06.320 the office five days a week, and that follows on 0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:09.720 some other big tech companies like Amazon making similar announcements. 0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:12.440 Are we going to see some change here? I kind 0:15:12.480 --> 0:15:14.440 of felt like the status quo was a hybrid thing, 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:16.800 but it still seems like some big companies want to 0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:18.160 get their people back full. 0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:21.000 Time, right, So we work with some of the best 0:15:21.000 --> 0:15:23.400 brands in the world. We work with eighty eight percent 0:15:23.480 --> 0:15:26.800 of the Fortune five hundred, so we have a good 0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:29.680 pulse of what's happening in the workplace. And I would 0:15:29.680 --> 0:15:33.920 say absolutely the dominant trend is still a hybrid environment. 0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:39.640 So many highly skilled employees say they will not go 0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:43.600 back full time. So I think that while certain companies 0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:47.720 are laying down these mandates very hard to enforce them, 0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:50.320 very hard to keep high potentials who don't want to 0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:53.600 work that way anymore. So clearly what we see across 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:55.920 the board in our client base is a hybrid approach 0:15:56.440 --> 0:15:59.680 two to three days a week in the office for collaboration, 0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:04.920 learning together, and some flexibility, which is what high performing 0:16:04.960 --> 0:16:05.720 talent wants. 0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:08.080 All right, Kate, thank you so much. We appreciate that. 0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:11.840 Kate to Shane, CEO of our GP, I don't know. 0:16:11.920 --> 0:16:14.000 I kind of feel like we're seeing a little bit 0:16:14.000 --> 0:16:17.920 of a move and a pendulum back to more. 0:16:17.680 --> 0:16:19.880 In office versus less definitely in office. 0:16:19.920 --> 0:16:22.040 I don't know, but I mean, Kate again, she talks 0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:24.640 to all these Fortune five hundred companies. I think a 0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:26.680 lot of people I can still push back on that. 0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:28.680 We have to see that plays out. 0:16:30.320 --> 0:16:34.040 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:16:34.120 --> 0:16:37.200 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 0:16:37.200 --> 0:16:40.520 Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 0:16:40.600 --> 0:16:44.120 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:47.840 All right, normal, Linda, and for Alex Steel here today, 0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:50.160 I'm Paul Sweeting. We're live on our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. 0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:53.080 We're streaming live on YouTube as well. Of course, the 0:16:53.520 --> 0:16:56.760 big news story of the week have been the terrible 0:16:57.280 --> 0:17:01.280 fires in Los Angeles and we've been trying to get 0:17:01.280 --> 0:17:04.119 some different angles on that all week. Will Wade joins 0:17:04.160 --> 0:17:07.240 this energy and climate reporter for Bloomberg News. Well, thanks 0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:09.240 so much. I appreciate getting some time here. We want 0:17:09.240 --> 0:17:11.400 to talk to you about the Constellation deal as well 0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:12.200 in the energy space. 0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:15.800 But first, anything to add on these LA fires. 0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:21.080 I mean, the fires are just tragic, They're huge. We 0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:25.159 see that Cawfires just ranked the Palisades fire as the 0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:27.840 third most damaging in state history. To Eton one is 0:17:27.880 --> 0:17:30.320 right behind it is the fourth, and of course the 0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:33.960 worst was the twenty eighteen campfire that destroyed the entire 0:17:33.960 --> 0:17:36.640 city of Palisades. But these things are still burning, and 0:17:36.760 --> 0:17:38.760 you know, there's still one hundred and fifty thousand people 0:17:38.760 --> 0:17:41.320 that are under evacuation order, including some of my family. 0:17:41.520 --> 0:17:42.760 Talk to us about that. Do you have some of 0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:44.080 your family in that part of the world. 0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:45.240 Sure. 0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:49.600 My aunt lives in North Pasadena. She was evacuated on Tuesday. 0:17:50.160 --> 0:17:53.520 She's doing fine, she's rattled, but I've been tracking the 0:17:53.560 --> 0:17:56.320 progress of the fire. It's kind of getting closer to 0:17:56.480 --> 0:17:59.200 her house. I really hope it does fine. It's actually 0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:02.200 a really nice house. Use it onto the Apple TV 0:18:02.280 --> 0:18:07.280 show Shrinking. Yeah, it's a really nice place. And then 0:18:07.640 --> 0:18:10.919 I heard from my mom yesterday. She said, Hey, remember 0:18:10.960 --> 0:18:13.440 that restaurant I took you to brunch last summer. 0:18:13.160 --> 0:18:15.879 When you were visiting. Yeah, it burned down. That was 0:18:15.960 --> 0:18:19.360 up on North Lake Street. So it feels very personal 0:18:19.400 --> 0:18:19.639 to me. 0:18:20.119 --> 0:18:21.600 Yep, more and more stories coming out. 0:18:21.760 --> 0:18:21.960 Yeah. 0:18:21.960 --> 0:18:23.720 I mean, when you think about a lot of these stories, 0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:25.960 some people didn't even have the opportunity to go back 0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:28.879 to their homes to grab items, especially as the evacuations 0:18:28.880 --> 0:18:31.720 have been in place. Have your family member spoken at 0:18:31.720 --> 0:18:33.639 all to that experience or what have you been hearing 0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:34.200 on the ground. 0:18:35.320 --> 0:18:38.240 I know that my mom was telling me that her 0:18:38.240 --> 0:18:40.600 aunt left and my aunt left in such a hurry. 0:18:40.920 --> 0:18:45.080 She left some important medication behind and they were able 0:18:45.119 --> 0:18:46.960 to go back and get that, and neighborhood was able 0:18:46.960 --> 0:18:47.359 to get in. 0:18:47.400 --> 0:18:49.639 But it's unclear when they're going to be able to 0:18:49.640 --> 0:18:50.080 go back. 0:18:51.359 --> 0:18:56.480 They're not very contained right now. Palisades fire is still 0:18:56.480 --> 0:18:59.160 only like eight percent contained, and they eaten one that's 0:18:59.200 --> 0:19:01.520 the one in Pacity is only three percent contained. 0:19:01.760 --> 0:19:03.679 Those are not big numbers. 0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:07.160 Yeah, absolutely, all right, Well, hopefully some good news coming 0:19:07.160 --> 0:19:09.520 out of that part of the world soon. Let's talk 0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:14.080 about in your world of reporting. Their Constellation Energy surged 0:19:14.400 --> 0:19:17.800 after agreed to acquire closely held Calpine Core before sixteen 0:19:17.840 --> 0:19:21.520 point four billion to create the largest fleet of US 0:19:21.560 --> 0:19:22.320 power stations. 0:19:22.440 --> 0:19:24.120 Talk to us about this deal. What's going on here? 0:19:25.320 --> 0:19:29.760 So Constellation already is notable. They have the biggest fleet 0:19:29.800 --> 0:19:33.560 of nuclear power plants, and their shares have gone up 0:19:33.640 --> 0:19:35.720 like more than one hundred percent in the past year 0:19:36.320 --> 0:19:39.160 because like the last year, all we've seen in electricity 0:19:39.400 --> 0:19:43.679 is more and more demand for electricity from data centers 0:19:43.720 --> 0:19:48.280 and artificial intelligence and electric vehicles and people shifting their 0:19:48.280 --> 0:19:51.960 homes to electric heating and gas heating, and basically anyone 0:19:52.000 --> 0:19:54.680