WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: August 5, 2022 - Hour 2 (Radio) 0:00:03.520 --> 0:00:06.360 Live from the Bloomberg Interact at Brooker Studios. This is 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:10.400 Bloomberg day Break for Friday at fifth two. Coming up, 0:00:10.440 --> 0:00:13.360 the Shower. Investors a weight the July jobs report for 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.160 signs of a slowing or strong labor market. Democrats agree 0:00:17.200 --> 0:00:19.680 at our advised version of their tax in climate bill, 0:00:19.920 --> 0:00:23.000 TESLA shareholders agree on a three for one stock split, 0:00:23.200 --> 0:00:26.280 and US health officials to clare monkey Parks a public 0:00:26.400 --> 0:00:30.160 health emergency conspiracy. Theorist Alex Jones has been ordered to 0:00:30.200 --> 0:00:32.920 pay four point one billion dollars in the Sandy Hook case. 0:00:33.200 --> 0:00:36.120 I'm Michael Blaer. More Ahead, I'm John Stash and sports 0:00:36.159 --> 0:00:38.320 the Mets at four home runs beat the Braves and 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:40.400 the start of the Big Five Game Series. The Yankees 0:00:40.440 --> 0:00:45.479 play tonight in St. Louis. That's all straight Ahead on 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:48.960 Bloomberg day Break on Bloomberg eleven three on New York, 0:00:49.200 --> 0:00:53.840 Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, 0:00:54.160 --> 0:00:58.600 Bloomberg nine sixties and Francisco Sirius x M one nineteen 0:00:58.800 --> 0:01:02.040 and around the world Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via 0:01:02.120 --> 0:01:08.760 the Bloomberg Business Actor. Thank good morning. I'm Karen Moscow. 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:11.000 I'm Nathan Hager Bloomberg Daybreak brought to you by b 0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:13.040 n Y Melon's Pershing. We'll learned why the world's most 0:01:13.080 --> 0:01:16.560 sophisticated wealth management and institutional firms rely on Pershing to 0:01:16.600 --> 0:01:20.160 help them improve profitability, create efficiency, attract talent, and manage 0:01:20.240 --> 0:01:23.640 risk at Pershing dot Com and Futures are little change 0:01:23.720 --> 0:01:25.560 this morning six oh one on Wall Street, and we 0:01:25.680 --> 0:01:28.120 check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day 0:01:28.440 --> 0:01:30.760 on Bloomberg, Guess and p and Nasdack Future is a 0:01:30.840 --> 0:01:33.680 little change. Dal Future is higher up thirty nine and 0:01:33.760 --> 0:01:36.200 attend your treasury down to thirty seconds here at two 0:01:36.240 --> 0:01:39.320 point six nine per cent. Nathan Karen Global stocks are 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:41.320 trading near two month high this morning. Ahead of the 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:44.480 July jobs report. Economists, you're looking for a slowdown in 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:46.720 the labor market. The median forecast is for a gain 0:01:46.760 --> 0:01:49.200 of tune and fifty thousand jobs. We get more from 0:01:49.200 --> 0:01:52.960 Bloomberg Smichael McKee. Since it's backward looking July is change 0:01:53.000 --> 0:01:55.880 in US payrolls won't have much value for forecasters trying 0:01:55.920 --> 0:01:58.880 to predict recession. Companies are also reluctant to let go 0:01:58.960 --> 0:02:01.920 of workers, even if businesses starting to slow given the 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:04.800 current labor shortage. While a consensus print would be the 0:02:04.840 --> 0:02:09.120 lowest since the economy lost jobs in December, it would 0:02:09.160 --> 0:02:12.840 still be above the average of one thousand jobs created 0:02:12.880 --> 0:02:15.519 per month in the five years before the pandemic, and 0:02:15.880 --> 0:02:19.200 it would continue to reassure feed officials that rising interest 0:02:19.280 --> 0:02:23.160 rates aren't taking the economy yet. Michael McKey, Bloomberg Daybreak. 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:26.280 All right, Michael, thank you. Another major story out of Washington. 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:29.400 Senate Democrats are closer to passing their tax and Energy 0:02:29.480 --> 0:02:32.600 bill Arizona. Is Kirston Cinema, one of the last holdouts 0:02:32.639 --> 0:02:35.560 on the deal, now says she's on board. Now's after 0:02:35.639 --> 0:02:37.919 Democrats took out a provision that would have narrowed a 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:41.160 tax loophole for fund managers and added a new one 0:02:41.280 --> 0:02:45.079 percent tax on stock buybacks. But there's still one hurdle left, 0:02:45.120 --> 0:02:47.560 and as according to Jim Keshler, co founder of Third 0:02:47.639 --> 0:02:51.560 Way and former legislative policy director for Majority leader Chunk Schumer, 0:02:52.080 --> 0:02:56.120 the parliamentarian is looking at this bill. There's always things 0:02:56.240 --> 0:02:59.440 that don't pass. Was called the bird bath. Some of 0:02:59.480 --> 0:03:02.400 the procedure or rules with rapid sliation, which means language 0:03:02.440 --> 0:03:04.880 will need to be tweeked. Third Way co founder Jim 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:08.400 Kensler spoke with Our Washington corresponded Joe matthew On Bloomberg 0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:11.280 sound on the parliamentary and should rule on the bill today. 0:03:11.680 --> 0:03:13.880 Democrats could work into the weekend to vote on the 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:16.440 measure tomorrow. We've seen new tensions between the U. S 0:03:16.480 --> 0:03:18.520 and China this morning, care and over how Speaker Nancy 0:03:18.560 --> 0:03:21.959 Pelosi's trip to Taiwan. Beijing has announced sanctions against the 0:03:22.000 --> 0:03:24.880 speaker and her immediate family. It also says it's stopping 0:03:24.960 --> 0:03:28.000 climate talks with the US, along with any military dialogue 0:03:28.040 --> 0:03:30.400 and meetings with the Defense Department. Well, we have some 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:32.799 major news on the health front this morning, Nathan, with 0:03:32.880 --> 0:03:36.880 the US declaring a federal emergency because of monkeypox. Researchers 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:39.040 are trying to get some answers on how to combat 0:03:39.080 --> 0:03:42.480 the disease, Bloomberg said. Baxter has the story. Health and 0:03:42.560 --> 0:03:46.440 Human Services says about sixty six undred cases nationwide, with 0:03:46.640 --> 0:03:49.560 researchers now asking questions like does a person who had 0:03:49.560 --> 0:03:53.040 a smallpox vaccine as a child have immunity? The head 0:03:53.040 --> 0:03:55.520 of the White House COVID Task Forces, dr Ash's Jack 0:03:55.800 --> 0:03:58.960 Smallpox monkey box very related to each other as viruses go, 0:03:59.560 --> 0:04:01.440 you would think that if you got vaccinated as a 0:04:01.520 --> 0:04:04.480 kid against small park, you would have protection. We don't 0:04:04.520 --> 0:04:06.560 know yet. We're still looking at the data. We are 0:04:06.600 --> 0:04:09.400 seeing some older people still get infected. Meanwhile, as well 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:11.960 as a federal government, more and more states are declaring 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:15.320 states of emergency as well. In San Francisco, I'm at 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:17.960 Baxter Bloomberg Gay break. All right, thanks, turning to corporate 0:04:18.000 --> 0:04:20.520 news this morning, shares of Tesla are a little changed 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:23.000 in the pre market. The shareholders have approved a three 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:25.720 for one stock split. Ed Ludlow has more from our 0:04:25.720 --> 0:04:28.839 Bloomberg nine sixty news room in San Francisco. This stock 0:04:28.880 --> 0:04:32.000 split takes the shares to around three hundred dollars a share. 0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:36.120 Was first tweeted by Tesla in March, and then when 0:04:36.160 --> 0:04:39.240 this meeting was confirmed and scheduled with the agenda a 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:41.040 month ago, we knew it was coming. And the thing 0:04:41.120 --> 0:04:43.440 that's missing for investors out there is we do not 0:04:43.720 --> 0:04:46.960 know more details about the date that this stock split 0:04:47.040 --> 0:04:49.560 becomes effective. Of you've seen this before. There was a 0:04:49.640 --> 0:04:52.480 five for one stock split in August twenty really boosted 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:55.280 the stop the logic, bring the price down, make it 0:04:55.360 --> 0:04:58.240 more accessible, and Tesla has a massive retail investor base, 0:04:58.920 --> 0:05:01.240 said Ludlow says this explit could give a lift to 0:05:01.279 --> 0:05:04.120 Tesla shares again. They're up nearly fifty percent from a 0:05:04.200 --> 0:05:07.200 late May Low Well, Nathan. One other note from Tesla 0:05:07.360 --> 0:05:10.680 shareholder meeting has Elon Musk giving his anecdotal view on 0:05:10.720 --> 0:05:13.520 the economy. The Tesla CEO says he thinks the worst 0:05:13.600 --> 0:05:16.680 may be over when it comes to inflation. Most of 0:05:16.760 --> 0:05:19.159 our commodities, most of the things that going to Tesla, 0:05:19.240 --> 0:05:22.640 not all, but I don't know. More than half the 0:05:22.760 --> 0:05:26.400 prices are trending down in six months six months from now. 0:05:26.440 --> 0:05:29.200 That this could change obviously, but but the trend is down, 0:05:29.360 --> 0:05:35.599 which suggests that, uh, we're past peak inflation. Musk also 0:05:35.680 --> 0:05:38.559 reiterates that he expects a mild recession in the US 0:05:38.800 --> 0:05:41.000 that could last about eighteen months. We got lots of 0:05:41.040 --> 0:05:43.240 stocks on the move this morning, Karen, Following a slew 0:05:43.320 --> 0:05:46.200 of earnings Like yesterday, shares of Lift are up almost 0:05:46.279 --> 0:05:49.120 eight percent. The company says rideshare volumes are on track 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:51.839 to exceed pre COVID levels, as it reported the highest 0:05:51.920 --> 0:05:55.000 earnings in its history. The story from Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett, 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:58.120 it's a sign that investment to stem a shortage of 0:05:58.240 --> 0:06:01.840 drivers is paying off. Then he rose from a year 0:06:01.920 --> 0:06:05.880 earlier to nine ninety one million dollars, beating the nine 0:06:06.000 --> 0:06:09.560 hundred eighty six point seven million dollars street estimate. The 0:06:09.680 --> 0:06:13.240 quarter shows lift as approaching a full recovery from the pandemic, 0:06:13.560 --> 0:06:16.880 amid a broad based rebound in right hailing that also 0:06:17.200 --> 0:06:21.480 boosted rival Uber in the period in New York. Charlie 0:06:21.520 --> 0:06:24.440 Pellett Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, Charlie, thank you. Well, let's 0:06:24.480 --> 0:06:26.360 get a look at some other stocks on our radar 0:06:26.520 --> 0:06:29.000 this morning, and Bloomberry's John Tucker joins us live with 0:06:29.080 --> 0:06:31.960 the latest. Don Good morning, Karen. The quarterly launsed door 0:06:32.080 --> 0:06:34.920 Dash worse than what analysts expected, but the company says 0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:38.400 it's food delivery business remains healthy and growth continues in 0:06:38.480 --> 0:06:41.640 the second quarter. Well, that's what investors lashed onto door 0:06:41.720 --> 0:06:45.400 Dash shares jumping twelve percent this morning. Yelp reporting a 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:48.040 profit and the last quarter boosting its full year, earning 0:06:48.040 --> 0:06:51.760 his guidance the online directors that strong advertising demand drove 0:06:51.920 --> 0:06:56.080 record net revenue. The shares jumped eighteen percent and Beyond Meat, 0:06:56.160 --> 0:06:59.280 slashing its revenue outlook for the full year. Shoppers are 0:06:59.320 --> 0:07:03.320 trading down for Mu's plant based food to cheaper animal proteins. 0:07:03.800 --> 0:07:06.760 Shares down over one percent this morning, Live in New York. 0:07:06.839 --> 0:07:09.600 I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, John, Thanks X 0:07:09.680 --> 0:07:12.120 and p Futures are down one point down, futures up 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:15.360 twenty five. Nastac features are lower by nineteen points. Straight 0:07:15.400 --> 0:07:18.080 ahead your latest local headlines and a check of sports. 0:07:18.320 --> 0:07:24.559 This is Bloomberg six oh seven on Wall Street, seventy 0:07:24.600 --> 0:07:26.840 nine degrees in Central Park. Still dealing with a crash 0:07:26.960 --> 0:07:29.520 northbound Major diagu in a Yankee Stadium. More coming up 0:07:29.520 --> 0:07:32.360 in traffic. First Michael Barr with more on what's going 0:07:32.400 --> 0:07:34.240 on in New York and around the world. Michael, thank 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:36.440 you very much. Nathan. The Tri State area will have 0:07:36.560 --> 0:07:41.920 another hot day. Bloomberg Meteorologies. Rob Caroline has the latest. Michael. 0:07:42.000 --> 0:07:44.000 Heat advisory remains in the fact for the Tri State 0:07:44.040 --> 0:07:46.360 area until eight pm this evening. We're back up into 0:07:46.400 --> 0:07:48.600 the nineties today with the humidity of feel like it's 0:07:48.600 --> 0:07:51.320 around the hundred. Only different today over yesterday is the 0:07:51.320 --> 0:07:54.600 potential for some cooling showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Not 0:07:54.800 --> 0:07:57.000 everyone will see them, but those folks who do could 0:07:57.040 --> 0:07:59.600 see some very heavy downpours and will remain warm through 0:07:59.640 --> 0:08:02.800 the up coming weekend. Michael rob thank you, sir. Donald 0:08:02.840 --> 0:08:07.000 Trump's lawyers are in talks with federal prosecutors over conversations 0:08:07.040 --> 0:08:10.480 the former president had with advisors and whether he'd be 0:08:10.560 --> 0:08:14.080 able to shield them from investigators of the January six 0:08:14.160 --> 0:08:17.120 that sold on the Capitol. CNN reports it is the 0:08:17.160 --> 0:08:20.160 first indication the two sides are in direct talks as 0:08:20.280 --> 0:08:25.400 the federal probe accelerates. Texas jury ruled conspiracy theorist Alex 0:08:25.520 --> 0:08:29.280 Jones must pay more than four million dollars in defamation 0:08:29.360 --> 0:08:33.080 damages for falsely claiming the twelve Sandy Hooks school shooting 0:08:33.160 --> 0:08:35.200 was a hoax. While it was less than the one 0:08:35.280 --> 0:08:39.079 hundred fifty million dollars being sought, Council Mark Bangston was 0:08:39.160 --> 0:08:41.160 happy with the verdict. It was my goal when I 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:43.800 started on this case to get this family a multimillion 0:08:43.840 --> 0:08:46.079 dollar verdict for their pain and suffering, and I've already 0:08:46.120 --> 0:08:48.880 done that, plus additional money for the million dollars and 0:08:48.920 --> 0:08:52.719 sanction Jones, said, US Council Mark Hank Bangston says the 0:08:52.800 --> 0:08:56.400 jury returns today for the peanotive phase of the case. Meanwhile, 0:08:56.440 --> 0:08:59.240 the January six Committee has asked for texts from the 0:08:59.320 --> 0:09:02.720 infull Wars post a face off in Florida over abortion. 0:09:02.800 --> 0:09:07.520 Governor Round de Santis says he's suspended Tampa's top prosecutor, 0:09:07.880 --> 0:09:11.480 but at Hillsborough County State Attorney Andrew Warren says he's 0:09:11.480 --> 0:09:14.000 an elected official just like the governor and is not 0:09:14.200 --> 0:09:18.640 going anywhere. At issue is Warren's decision not to criminalize abortions, 0:09:18.920 --> 0:09:21.439 which a new state law bands after fifteen weeks with 0:09:21.559 --> 0:09:24.679 some exceptions. Warren says the cord already as rule the 0:09:24.679 --> 0:09:28.840 band violates Florida's constitutional right to privacy. However, the Santis 0:09:28.920 --> 0:09:32.800 said prosecutors cannot pick and choose which laws to enforce. 0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:37.600 You can exercise discretion and individual case, but that discretion 0:09:37.720 --> 0:09:41.480 has to be individualized in case specific. You can't just 0:09:41.600 --> 0:09:46.160 say you're not gonna do a certain offenses, Governor de Santis. 0:09:46.400 --> 0:09:49.079 Global News twenty four hours a day on air and 0:09:49.320 --> 0:09:52.679 on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than twenty seven hundred 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:55.079 journalists and analysts, are more than a hundred twenty countries, 0:09:55.400 --> 0:10:03.640 Michael Barren, this is Bloomberg, Nathan. Thanks Michael. Count up 0:10:03.640 --> 0:10:05.480 to six ten on Wall Street time for the Bloomberg 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:08.760 Sports Update with John stesshow thanks Nathan Big granted city field, 0:10:08.800 --> 0:10:11.320 but have a playoff atmosphere. For the start of Mets 0:10:11.400 --> 0:10:14.600 frames five games in four days between the top two 0:10:14.640 --> 0:10:16.440 in the NL East, the Mets led five to nothing. 0:10:16.480 --> 0:10:18.560 They went on to win six to four, and then 0:10:18.600 --> 0:10:20.720 Elliet Atlanta by four and a half games. Four Matt 0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:23.520 home runs, Pee Alonso was twenty nine, Daniel vogelback his 0:10:23.600 --> 0:10:26.280 second in as many days, and another new Matt Tyler 0:10:26.400 --> 0:10:28.760 Naquin played his first home game of his new team 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:33.760 home or twice. He even, I've been playing here for 0:10:33.840 --> 0:10:36.280 four years. That's a good night. But um no, man, 0:10:36.320 --> 0:10:38.920 it's the very enjoyable the fans, you know, even from 0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:41.160 you know, warming up on the line made me feel 0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:43.480 um right at home. So even going off to the 0:10:43.559 --> 0:10:45.880 left just just to make me feel good. So it's uh, 0:10:46.160 --> 0:10:47.800 it's nice to feel that way and step into the 0:10:47.840 --> 0:10:50.719 box comfortable. Carlos Carasto got to win Edwin Diaz to 0:10:50.840 --> 0:10:53.160 save the first of his twenty four saves, where he 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:56.000 pitched two in he'to indication him how big This series 0:10:56.200 --> 0:10:59.320 is continues tonight double header tomorrow. Yankees are in St. 0:10:59.360 --> 0:11:02.360 Louis tonight, then tomorrow they'll face Jordan Montgomery, who will 0:11:02.360 --> 0:11:05.480 make his Cardinals debut against his old team. The NFL 0:11:05.600 --> 0:11:08.480 named Peter Harvey to hear its appeal of the Deshaun 0:11:08.559 --> 0:11:11.760 Watson six games suspension they wanted to be longer. Harvey 0:11:12.200 --> 0:11:14.400 is the former Attorney general for the State of New Jersey. 0:11:14.600 --> 0:11:17.079 Preseason football Hall of Fame game Can't Know High That's 0:11:17.120 --> 0:11:19.439 where Josh McDaniels grew up. He played high school games 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:22.520 in that stadium. Longtime Patriots assistant. He's now the head 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:25.200 coach of the Raiders, who beat Jacksonville, who is now 0:11:25.280 --> 0:11:28.400 coached by ex Eagles coach Doug Peterson. Very few starters played. 0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:31.360 No Derek Carr, No Davante Adams now a Raider. No 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:34.640 Trevor Lawrence. The Hall of Fame ceremonies take place tomorrow. 0:11:34.760 --> 0:11:39.240 Seven inductees and Canton, John Stashuallyward Bloomberg, Sports Nick Thanks 0:11:39.360 --> 0:11:42.120 John SMP future is little change now. DAL future is 0:11:42.200 --> 0:11:46.520 up thirty five points. NaSTA futures are lower, down fourteen points. 0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:49.760 The tenure Treasury is down two thirty seconds, yield two 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:52.040 point six nine percent to yield on the two year 0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:56.080 three point zero five percent. Ahead of July jobs. Will 0:11:56.200 --> 0:12:00.120 preview the numbers with Tom Porcelli, Senior US economist to 0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:08.040 RBC Capital Markets. This is Bloomberg Bloomberg eleven three oh 0:12:08.040 --> 0:12:10.439 weather partly sunny today, chance for showers and storms. With 0:12:10.520 --> 0:12:12.720 a heat advisor and effect till eight tonight we get 0:12:12.800 --> 0:12:15.120 up to your ninety five degrees will be in the 0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:22.640 upper eighties tomorrow. Right now seventy nine in Central Park Markets. 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:25.840 Headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day at 0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:29.800 Bloomberg dot Com, a Bloomberg Business outland at Bloomberg Quicktake. 0:12:30.080 --> 0:12:39.040 This is a Bloomberg business flash and I'm Karen Moscow. 0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:42.280 Stocks in Europe and US stock index futures are struggling 0:12:42.360 --> 0:12:44.840 for direction. This morning is investors race for the monthly. 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:47.880 US jobs are poor. That's likely to add to the 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:50.800 recession debate. We checked the markets every fifteen minutes about 0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:53.560 the trading day on Bloomberg. Right now, SNP futures are 0:12:53.559 --> 0:12:56.400 a little changed. Our futures they're up thirty nes Day 0:12:56.480 --> 0:12:59.600 futures down twenty the decks. In Germany, it's down about 0:12:59.600 --> 0:13:02.120 to town about percent. Ten year Treasury down one thirty 0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:04.839 second yeld two point six nine percent, yield on the 0:13:04.920 --> 0:13:08.199 two year three point five percent. Nimex screwed oil is 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:10.319 down a quarter percent or twenty three cents at eighty 0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:13.120 eight dollars thirty one cents a barrel. Comex schoold is 0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:15.320 down a quarter percent or four dollars thirty cents at 0:13:15.360 --> 0:13:17.880 eighteen o two sixty announce and bit coin up two 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:21.520 point eight percent at twenty three thousand one. As a 0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:24.079 Bloomberg business flash, now here's Michael Barr with more on 0:13:24.200 --> 0:13:26.880 what's going on around the world. Michael Karen. China has 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:30.120 announced sanctions on US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her 0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:33.280 immediate family members. It's over her recent trip to Taiwan. 0:13:33.760 --> 0:13:37.199 The Biden administration declared monkey pox of public health emergency. 0:13:37.559 --> 0:13:40.079 More than seven thousand cases have been detected in the 0:13:40.280 --> 0:13:43.400 US so far. A lightning strike just in front of 0:13:43.440 --> 0:13:47.079 the White House in Lafayette Square has critically injured four people. 0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:49.920 In baseball, the Mets beat the Brave six four, the 0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:53.760 Red Sox lost to the Royals. The Nationals and Giants 0:13:53.920 --> 0:13:57.720 also Lost, The A's Beat the Angels, eight seven NFL 0:13:57.840 --> 0:14:02.280 Hall of Fame game, The Raiders Over the Jaguar. Global 0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:04.679 News twenty four hours a day on air and on 0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:08.160 Bloomberg Quick Take, powered by more than twenty seven hundred 0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:11.280 journalists and analysts more than a hundred twenty countries. Michael 0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:14.280 bar and this is Bloomberg. Nathan Alright, Michael, thank you. 0:14:14.360 --> 0:14:16.319 In his sixth nineteen on Wall Street Live from the 0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:20.680 Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg day Break, which 0:14:20.760 --> 0:14:23.560 means we're just about two hours and ten minutes away 0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:26.400 from the release of the July payrolls report from the 0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:28.640 Labor Department. Ahead of that, we are joined live this 0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:32.400 morning by Tom Porcelli, Managing Director in chief US economist 0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:35.520 at RBC Capital Markets. Tom, it's great to speak with 0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:38.000 you this morning. We have seen signs ahead of the 0:14:38.080 --> 0:14:40.880 release of this overall report that we are getting some 0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:43.040 cooling in the labor market. What do you expect we're 0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:46.200 gonna see when the data comes out at eight thirty 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:49.280 this morning? Yeah, good morning. Um, Look, I think this 0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:51.880 actually could be another pretty decent number. I mean, we're 0:14:51.920 --> 0:14:54.360 north of consensus. We're looking for about three twenty thousand 0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:58.840 on the headline for private UM. You know, and and 0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:00.920 that would be I don't know what that is. You 0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:03.560 probably know this better than me. Fifty or more above consensus. 0:15:04.000 --> 0:15:05.960 I think if you get a number like that, UM, 0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:09.040 I think what that does is it just sort of 0:15:09.240 --> 0:15:13.160 you know, it feeds this this narrative UM that's been 0:15:13.200 --> 0:15:16.520 put in place, but particularly starting on Monday, UM, when 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:18.680 you had all these FED officials come out and basically 0:15:18.800 --> 0:15:22.360 unwind so much of of what Powell had said UM 0:15:22.640 --> 0:15:24.800 during the during his EFFI and C pressor, which is 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:27.040 to say, hey, you know, look, we're not stopping the 0:15:27.080 --> 0:15:29.560 cycle anytime soon. So I think you get another strong report, 0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:33.600 and I think that's certainly UM will lend itself to UM. 0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:36.120 You know, people sort of really pushing that idea even more. 0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:40.000 I would caution against that, because even though I were 0:15:40.040 --> 0:15:43.120 expecting a pretty strong number here, UM, the reality is, 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:46.640 as you rightly highlight, there's already factors that are suggesting 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:47.960 to us that things are going to cool down and 0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:50.760 probably cool down pretty considerably going into your end. Well, 0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:52.240 why are you looking at the makes you think that 0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:54.400 we are going to get a stronger number than consensus? 0:15:54.480 --> 0:15:58.760 Because we did see some moderation in the jobless claims 0:15:58.840 --> 0:16:03.920 yesterday and some other signs of potentially wages as well. Yeah. No, 0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:06.680 I look, let me be very very in anyone who 0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:10.360 reasoned research no well knows this. Um. You know, we 0:16:10.560 --> 0:16:12.240 we go where the data take us. If there's a 0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:14.720 single month where our models are telling us it's going 0:16:14.760 --> 0:16:17.360 to be a decent number, that's fine. UM. But as 0:16:17.400 --> 0:16:19.840 I'm sort of fond of saying like, I'm less interested 0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:21.880 in sort of any single month's number, I'm more interested 0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:24.240 in sort of the narrative. And the narrative is exactly 0:16:24.280 --> 0:16:27.960 what you highlight. UM. So I would discount the strong number, um, 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:29.520 even if even if we're right and you get it, 0:16:29.600 --> 0:16:32.200 because what we're looking at our things like claims UM. 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:35.760 And again I said this yesterday with Tom Keenan the team. UM, 0:16:36.080 --> 0:16:37.560 I think what you have to keep in mind is 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:40.440 we're up meaningfully from the lows. We're a hundred and 0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:43.800 six or six thousand UM as a low three months ago. UM, 0:16:43.840 --> 0:16:47.680 we're fifty UM from a claims perspective, that usually feeds 0:16:47.760 --> 0:16:50.960 into the into rising unemployed with a bit of a 0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:53.320 lag UM. So by the end of the year I 0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:55.600 mean we've said this many times. You could be staring 0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:57.280 at job losses. I mean, I don't think that that 0:16:57.600 --> 0:17:00.520 is um a stretch at all, Like we're not going 0:17:00.560 --> 0:17:02.920 on a limb by saying that. So uh And and 0:17:03.240 --> 0:17:05.679 just one last point, because I think you're right. If 0:17:05.760 --> 0:17:09.440 the labor backdrop was as tight as people think, then 0:17:09.640 --> 0:17:12.000 why are wage pressures slowing down right now? And and 0:17:12.160 --> 0:17:14.000 just to be clear, it's not like they've gone from like, 0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:16.280 you know, six percent to five and a half percent. 0:17:16.560 --> 0:17:18.879 They've done from six percent to like two and a 0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:22.159 half percent, right Like, there's been a meaningful slowing in 0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:24.200 in wages if you look at it the right way, 0:17:24.200 --> 0:17:25.760 and if you look at the right measure of wages. 0:17:25.800 --> 0:17:28.520 To write, average early earnings are an incomplete way of 0:17:28.600 --> 0:17:30.840 thinking about wage dynamics. You've got to look at average 0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:34.600 weekly earnings, which obviously includes the hours component um. And 0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:37.040 when you do that, you see that there's actually already 0:17:37.040 --> 0:17:39.280 been a pretty notable slowing. It sounds like you're on 0:17:39.359 --> 0:17:41.160 board with a lot of what we're hearing from FED 0:17:41.240 --> 0:17:43.280 speakers lately that they've still got a ways to go 0:17:43.520 --> 0:17:47.200 to keep hiking interest rates and keep getting inflation down. 0:17:47.400 --> 0:17:50.000 Is is the payrolls report that we get part of 0:17:50.040 --> 0:17:52.399 what's feeding into that for you know, So let me 0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:54.760 just be clear, Um, that's not the right way of 0:17:54.880 --> 0:17:57.639 characterizing our stands. I don't think that they just have 0:17:57.760 --> 0:18:00.360 to keep on like haphazardly hiking rates here. I think 0:18:00.400 --> 0:18:03.080 if they want to get rates into a restrictive territory, 0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:05.000 I'm totally sympathetic to that, And in fact, I would 0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:07.119 have argued or I have argued that we should have 0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:09.840 been there a long time ago. Um. But this notion 0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:13.320 that we're just supposed to just continue to hike rates aggressively, right, 0:18:13.320 --> 0:18:15.159 we like, without any like sort of real end in 0:18:15.320 --> 0:18:17.920 sight in the near term, I think that's foolish and 0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:20.480 I think the problem with that is it will drive 0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:22.840 us into a much deeper slowing than I think we 0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:25.399 have to have. Well, when do you think that you 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:28.080 have fed well need to pivot away from rate hikes. 0:18:28.200 --> 0:18:29.840 What's your call on that? We've got about a minute 0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:31.760 left here, Yeah, I mean I could be very quick 0:18:31.760 --> 0:18:33.879 on that. I think that they they're done by the 0:18:33.960 --> 0:18:35.720 end of the year, and then I think an easing 0:18:35.760 --> 0:18:39.520 cycle starts shortly thereafter. All Right, Tom Porcelly, the chief 0:18:39.600 --> 0:18:43.080 US Economists at RBC Capital Markets coming in ahead of consensus. 0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:47.280 The median forecast of economists survey by Bloomberg calls for 0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:50.159 two or fifty new jobs added in the month of 0:18:50.240 --> 0:18:53.359 July and an unemployment rate of three point six percent. 0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:55.239 Tom and the team at RBC are going for three 0:18:55.359 --> 0:18:59.240 hundred thousand. We get the complete numbers eight thirty am, 0:18:59.280 --> 0:19:01.720 Wall Street Time time. Of course, we'll have full coverage 0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:04.000 for you here on Bloomberg Radio. Will get reaction as 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:06.520 well from Labor Secretary Marty Walls shall be joining us 0:19:06.600 --> 0:19:09.960 here on Bloomberg Radio and television after the release of 0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:12.960 the July payrolls report. Tom again, thanks for your insights 0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:15.760 ahead of the release of the data. Looking ahead to 0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:19.240 the market open this morning, we have SMP futures down 0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:22.800 two points down, futures up twenty five NASDAC future is 0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:25.160 lower by twenty three points. It's been pretty much little 0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:27.760 changed throughout the early morning session. Market's kind of been 0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:30.800 waiting c mode ahead of the payrolls release. Ten Your 0:19:30.840 --> 0:19:33.680 treasuries down one thirty second, the yield two point six 0:19:33.800 --> 0:19:36.520 nine percent. Yield on the two year right now three 0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:40.200 point zero five percent. Nom X Scrude fell below ninety 0:19:40.200 --> 0:19:44.560 dollars in barrel still theree U down about a ten 0:19:44.720 --> 0:19:48.320 percent on the session. Comex gold is down four dollars 0:19:48.359 --> 0:19:51.719 eighty cents eighteen O two ten. Announced the euro one 0:19:51.760 --> 0:19:54.639 point zero two to eight against the dollar. The end 0:19:54.760 --> 0:19:58.560 is at one thirty three point zero three. You're listening 0:19:58.720 --> 0:20:08.600 to Bloomberg Dave Rake, Bloomberg eleven three oh weather heat 0:20:08.600 --> 0:20:10.800 advisory till eight tonight. We'll get up to your ninety 0:20:10.840 --> 0:20:13.120 five degrees with the chance for a shower storm uper 0:20:13.160 --> 0:20:16.359 eighties tomorrow back in the low nineties on Sunday. Right 0:20:16.400 --> 0:20:23.520 now seventy nine in Central Park, broadcasting live from the 0:20:23.640 --> 0:20:27.280 Bloomberg the Interactive Broker Studio in New York, Bloomberg E 0:20:27.359 --> 0:20:32.000 Living Freedom to Washington, d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg 0:20:32.080 --> 0:20:35.280 one O six one to San Francisco, Bloomberg N sixteen 0:20:35.359 --> 0:20:38.560 to the Country Sirius XM chto one nineteen and around 0:20:38.640 --> 0:20:42.160 the globe the Bloomberg Business app in Bloomberg Radio dot com. 0:20:42.600 --> 0:20:51.160 This is Bloomberg Daybreak. It's six thirty on Wall Streak. 0:20:51.160 --> 0:20:53.960 Good morning. I'm Nathan Hagar and I'm Karen Moscow and 0:20:54.040 --> 0:20:56.280 We're just about three hours away from the open of 0:20:56.359 --> 0:20:58.639