1
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

2
00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:14,160
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kettas live weekdays at noon

3
00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:17,440
Speaker 1: and five pm Eastern on Apple Cockley and Android Auto

4
00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,680
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

5
00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,120
Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

6
00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:28,000
Speaker 2: It's exactly one week out from the State of the

7
00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:30,280
Speaker 2: Union address that President Trump will give to a joint

8
00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:33,280
Speaker 2: session of Congress. Yes, it's just one week from now.

9
00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:36,800
Speaker 2: Happens to be the day after lawmaker's return from their recess.

10
00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:38,599
Speaker 2: And my question is will he be addressing the room

11
00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:41,280
Speaker 2: with part of the government still shut down, with Department

12
00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:45,560
Speaker 2: of Homeland Security still not funded After midnight Friday came

13
00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:48,120
Speaker 2: and went and no deal was made between Republicans and

14
00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:49,280
Speaker 2: Democrats over ICE reform.

15
00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:50,519
Speaker 3: You know, he was asked about it on an Air

16
00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:50,879
Speaker 3: Force one.

17
00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:52,760
Speaker 4: He said, I think I would Yeah, wouldn't bother me,

18
00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:56,000
Speaker 4: wondering exactly how he would play that. Some think it's

19
00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:58,640
Speaker 4: a bad look to be up there with one agency closed,

20
00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:00,960
Speaker 4: but he could also use that as a hook to

21
00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:04,720
Speaker 4: castigate Republicans or Democrats rather than blame them for not

22
00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:07,160
Speaker 4: working with Republicans. So either way, we're going to be

23
00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:09,440
Speaker 4: up there live and this will likely be a doozy

24
00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:11,360
Speaker 4: with a lot to talk about. We should mention that

25
00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:14,080
Speaker 4: Democrats have come back with a counter offer to the

26
00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:16,720
Speaker 4: counter proposal. We just don't know, Hayley, what's inside.

27
00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:18,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, we never got the details of what the White

28
00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:21,640
Speaker 2: House countered with. Usually here in Washington, if people are

29
00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:24,360
Speaker 2: quiet about the details, it may mean that actual progress

30
00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:26,520
Speaker 2: is being made. But we know that the Democrats had

31
00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:28,960
Speaker 2: a long list of demands that they initially put forward,

32
00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:31,039
Speaker 2: and the question is going to be how much will

33
00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:34,319
Speaker 2: the Democratic base allow them to pull back on what

34
00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:37,119
Speaker 2: they asked for and find some kind of compromise here.

35
00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:38,679
Speaker 2: How much is the White House, on the other hand,

36
00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:40,080
Speaker 2: willing to get in terms of compromise.

37
00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:42,040
Speaker 4: Well, let's check in with Tyler Kendall for the latest

38
00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:45,080
Speaker 4: on this. Bloomberg's Washington correspondent joins us now live in

39
00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:47,280
Speaker 4: our Washington bureau with her eyes as well on the

40
00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:48,560
Speaker 4: meetings underway in Geneva.

41
00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:50,600
Speaker 3: Let's start with DHS Tyler.

42
00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:52,720
Speaker 4: Four days we knew we would start this week with

43
00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:54,680
Speaker 4: this agency closed, and I think we know we're going

44
00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:57,280
Speaker 4: to start next week with it closed as well. The

45
00:01:57,280 --> 00:02:01,400
Speaker 4: big sticking points remain the same. Nothing change, d masking

46
00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:06,360
Speaker 4: and judicial warrants are non starters on both sides of

47
00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:07,600
Speaker 4: the isle, it seems.

48
00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:10,600
Speaker 5: Right, exactly, we haven't really gotten much insight into how

49
00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:13,960
Speaker 5: either side is going to ultimately need to compromise to

50
00:02:14,080 --> 00:02:17,120
Speaker 5: reopen the Department of Homeland Security, home to nearly two

51
00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:21,200
Speaker 5: hundred and sixty thousand federal workers. But it almost feels

52
00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:23,600
Speaker 5: early quiet here in Washington. I don't know if you

53
00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:26,000
Speaker 5: guys feel that way, but Congress is on recess for

54
00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:29,040
Speaker 5: at least the next week. So to your point, these

55
00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:31,880
Speaker 5: are going to be negotiations that end up dragging on.

56
00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:32,400
Speaker 6: Now.

57
00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:35,280
Speaker 5: My inbox last night lit up late in the evening

58
00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:37,720
Speaker 5: because we did hear from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer

59
00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:41,280
Speaker 5: who confirmed that Democrats have sent over their counter proposal.

60
00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:45,120
Speaker 5: But to your point, we haven't really gotten momentum on

61
00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:49,520
Speaker 5: what those non starters, essentially for Republicans, are ultimately going

62
00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:52,160
Speaker 5: to shake out. To be right, we know that the

63
00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:55,360
Speaker 5: White House is in favor of body camera mandates, for example,

64
00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:58,040
Speaker 5: We've already seen that put into place by DHS. But

65
00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:00,880
Speaker 5: those other things like new warrant require ronments and what's

66
00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:04,440
Speaker 5: been called demasking. Having federal agents remove their masks during

67
00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:07,840
Speaker 5: immigration enforcement procedures doesn't seem to be something on the

68
00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,560
Speaker 5: table and Joe and Kelly this goes to a Republican's

69
00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:14,040
Speaker 5: initial push that they really wanted to see this compromise

70
00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:17,399
Speaker 5: be done through executive action. Have President Trump put through

71
00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:19,560
Speaker 5: some orders. But at the end of the day, Democrats

72
00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:22,320
Speaker 5: are holding firm they need to see some changes codified

73
00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:22,839
Speaker 5: into law.

74
00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:25,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, they want to see legislation. Though we know President

75
00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:27,519
Speaker 2: Trump does not shy away from executive orders. In fact,

76
00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:30,280
Speaker 2: it happens to be one of his favorite policy tools,

77
00:03:30,320 --> 00:03:33,560
Speaker 2: if you will. President Trump, while focused on domestic issues

78
00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:37,000
Speaker 2: like keeping all of the government agencies funding, also has

79
00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:39,480
Speaker 2: had a great deal of focus on geopolitics, as we

80
00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:42,080
Speaker 2: well know, in a variety of different theaters, Tyler, but

81
00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:44,240
Speaker 2: the ones were focused on today because they both happen

82
00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:47,080
Speaker 2: to be centered and conversations taking place in Geneva, Switzerland,

83
00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:49,440
Speaker 2: or talks with Iron and over ending the war between

84
00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:54,760
Speaker 2: Ukraine and Russia. This is how President Trump characterized it yesterday.

85
00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:57,880
Speaker 7: Be involved in those dogs, think directly that they'll be

86
00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:00,200
Speaker 7: very important to see what can happen to me. But

87
00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:04,920
Speaker 7: typically rants are very tough negotiating. The good negotiators or Bendigote,

88
00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:07,720
Speaker 7: I would say that de garsiats like big talks. It's

89
00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:09,480
Speaker 7: got to be very easy.

90
00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:13,240
Speaker 3: I mean, it's look so far the great better come

91
00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:14,280
Speaker 3: to the table fast.

92
00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:15,520
Speaker 7: It's all about telling you.

93
00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:20,719
Speaker 2: So I'm not sure what we think about his indirect involvement,

94
00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,840
Speaker 2: how direct that may be, Tyler. But knowing that Iran

95
00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:25,720
Speaker 2: has said there is a general agreement here and in

96
00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:28,960
Speaker 2: two more weeks we should have further details of a

97
00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:30,800
Speaker 2: potential deal, what do we really know?

98
00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:34,400
Speaker 5: So we have to take this into the broader context

99
00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:36,560
Speaker 5: that essentially what we heard out of Iran today is

100
00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:39,680
Speaker 5: that they're agreeing to more talks. The bostonn't go off

101
00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:42,880
Speaker 5: the rails, which is seen as a relatively positive development

102
00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:46,960
Speaker 5: when it comes to the diplomatic option being pursued. And

103
00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:49,640
Speaker 5: it appears that the biggest question on the table right

104
00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:53,080
Speaker 5: now is what is going to be the future of

105
00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:57,880
Speaker 5: Iran's domestic enrichment capacity related to its nuclear program. That

106
00:04:57,920 --> 00:04:59,839
Speaker 5: seems to be the number one crux of the talks

107
00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:02,840
Speaker 5: the moment. The thing is, we have repeatedly heard from

108
00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,320
Speaker 5: US officials, perhaps most notably the Secretary of State Marco Rubio,

109
00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:09,160
Speaker 5: who says that these talks need to expand beyond that

110
00:05:09,240 --> 00:05:12,480
Speaker 5: they want to see on the table Iron's ballistic missile program,

111
00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:17,040
Speaker 5: also its support of regional proxy militia groups, and at

112
00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:18,880
Speaker 5: the moment, it doesn't seem like they're going to end

113
00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,680
Speaker 5: up approaching those topics, And in fact our own analysts

114
00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:24,480
Speaker 5: at Bloomberg Economics have said that the fact that this

115
00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:27,720
Speaker 5: has been limited to what they are calling the nuclear file,

116
00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:30,159
Speaker 5: that's probably not going to be enough of a concession

117
00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:32,599
Speaker 5: for the Trump administration. So they are still keeping in

118
00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:36,040
Speaker 5: their assessment the likelihood that we could see military strikes

119
00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:37,920
Speaker 5: down the road, and as you both know, we've seen

120
00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:42,039
Speaker 5: escalation just in recent days, is bolstering of military assets,

121
00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:45,200
Speaker 5: another carrier strike group going into the region, and Iran

122
00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:47,520
Speaker 5: of course closing part of the Strait of Hormuz for

123
00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:49,480
Speaker 5: pre planned military drills.

124
00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:52,200
Speaker 4: So that's the first part of what he was talking

125
00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:54,880
Speaker 4: about there with Iran. When you move to the talks

126
00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:58,599
Speaker 4: also in Geneva with Witkoff and Kushner another meeting that

127
00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:03,599
Speaker 4: has now concted here, he said, Ukraine better come to

128
00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:07,200
Speaker 4: the table fast. That's all I'm telling you, Or what

129
00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:09,880
Speaker 4: it'll be occupied by Russia.

130
00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:11,080
Speaker 3: Isn't that already happening?

131
00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:14,760
Speaker 5: Pretty interesting statement from President Trump.

132
00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:17,520
Speaker 3: Pert thought he was upset with Putin right most recently.

133
00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:19,640
Speaker 5: Perhaps goes to that mounting frustration that we have seen

134
00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:22,080
Speaker 5: from the White House that there hasn't been at this breakthrough.

135
00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:24,760
Speaker 5: Pretty remarkable just in and of itself that we're seeing

136
00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:27,920
Speaker 5: these dual, back to back negotiations in Geneva, led by

137
00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:30,880
Speaker 5: Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and the President's son in law,

138
00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:33,520
Speaker 5: Jared Kushner. I think it's fair to say that the

139
00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:37,040
Speaker 5: consensus going into these talks was relatively low in terms

140
00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,160
Speaker 5: of what sort of progress we would see, because we

141
00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:44,000
Speaker 5: saw strikes just last night, the Ukrainian president posting in

142
00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:46,760
Speaker 5: a social media post that there was nearly four hundred

143
00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:50,960
Speaker 5: drones and twenty nine missile attacks. Earlier today, Ukraine did

144
00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:54,599
Speaker 5: confirm that it had targeted an energy infrastructure facility on

145
00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:57,320
Speaker 5: the coast of the Black Sea. So we've really seen

146
00:06:57,440 --> 00:06:59,720
Speaker 5: this escalation. Sort of this pulled back from what the

147
00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:02,839
Speaker 5: White House had been touting as progress. We can say

148
00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:05,800
Speaker 5: that in recent weeks there had been progress, in particular

149
00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:09,760
Speaker 5: about security guarantees. That was one of the two biggest

150
00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:15,120
Speaker 5: sticking points on the table that appears to be relatively resolved.

151
00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:18,880
Speaker 5: The US has put forward really strong security guarantees, according

152
00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:21,400
Speaker 5: to our reporting. But the issue of territory, and we

153
00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:24,280
Speaker 5: heard from the Ukrainian President Zelenski earlier today they're going

154
00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:28,360
Speaker 5: to talk about this very important nuclear power plant in

155
00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:31,120
Speaker 5: that eastern down Boss region. The issue of territory. It

156
00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:33,960
Speaker 5: feels like we are just very far from any sort

157
00:07:33,960 --> 00:07:34,480
Speaker 5: of agreement.

158
00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:37,960
Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall, thank you so

159
00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:41,800
Speaker 2: much on both of these conflicts and their potential resolutions

160
00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:44,720
Speaker 2: or lack thereof. We turned out to Evelyn Farcas, executive

161
00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,840
Speaker 2: director of the McCain Institute, also former Deputy Assistant Secretary

162
00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:50,760
Speaker 2: of Defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia, who's here with

163
00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:53,280
Speaker 2: us now on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Evelyn, it's good

164
00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:55,160
Speaker 2: to speak with you again. If we could just begin

165
00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:58,360
Speaker 2: with Iran, given that was the set of talks that

166
00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,840
Speaker 2: happened first with Jared Kush and Steve Whitcoff. This notion

167
00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:04,880
Speaker 2: there being a general agreement, an agreement to do another

168
00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:08,280
Speaker 2: round of talks once we've exchanged some finer points of

169
00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:11,120
Speaker 2: a potential deal healer. How much should we be encouraged

170
00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:13,280
Speaker 2: by that, knowing all the while en route to the

171
00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:15,320
Speaker 2: Middle East right now is another carrier striker.

172
00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:18,800
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, I don't think that I would put

173
00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:22,120
Speaker 8: too much stock in it, in the sense that when

174
00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:25,960
Speaker 8: President Trump has two carriers off the coast or you know,

175
00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:30,280
Speaker 8: within striking range of Iran, it usually means he's going

176
00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:35,120
Speaker 8: to use force, just based on past recent experience Alla Venezuela.

177
00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:41,000
Speaker 8: So I think that President Trump is pretty much leaning

178
00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:43,800
Speaker 8: towards using force. The Iranians don't want him to lose,

179
00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:46,440
Speaker 8: you know, to use force, so of course they've agreed

180
00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:48,720
Speaker 8: to some kind of framework. But I'm not sure that

181
00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:51,160
Speaker 8: we should be encouraged that the end is in sight

182
00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:55,000
Speaker 8: because the Iranians were pretty dug in about limiting the

183
00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:59,200
Speaker 8: agenda to nuclear whereas we were pretty adamant that the

184
00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:02,720
Speaker 8: missile Shiit so be included, and of course that it

185
00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:06,000
Speaker 8: has a median implications for the potential use of force.

186
00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:07,680
Speaker 8: You can see the Iranians saying, well, if you're going

187
00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:09,640
Speaker 8: to strike us, we want to have a capability to

188
00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:10,520
Speaker 8: defend ourselves.

189
00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:13,600
Speaker 3: Is that why we need two more weeks?

190
00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:17,560
Speaker 4: And well, Thenaxios reporting that that is the word from Tehran.

191
00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:21,640
Speaker 4: We will have detailed proposals in the next two weeks.

192
00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:22,800
Speaker 3: What will they do at that time?

193
00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:27,120
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean they're clearly trying to make sure that

194
00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:31,280
Speaker 8: the carrier, you know, Battle Group can't be utilized, or

195
00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:33,000
Speaker 8: at least to try to put pressure on the White

196
00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:36,000
Speaker 8: House not to use force before the two weeks are up.

197
00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,120
Speaker 8: And we know that the second carrier will be in

198
00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:41,000
Speaker 8: place at the end of this week. So President Trump

199
00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:43,040
Speaker 8: is not going to want to wait two weeks. And

200
00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:46,400
Speaker 8: so it does again, it puts pressure on the White House. Now,

201
00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:48,679
Speaker 8: what is the White House going to do? Because use

202
00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:52,400
Speaker 8: of force is not something that's widely you know, popular

203
00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:55,240
Speaker 8: inside the United States and certainly not inside of MAGA.

204
00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:58,400
Speaker 8: And so if if it's President Trump, you know, if

205
00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:01,520
Speaker 8: he's seen as preemptively using for when the Iranians seem

206
00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:03,880
Speaker 8: to be willing to negotiate, that's a little bit of

207
00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:06,839
Speaker 8: a political problem potentially for the White House.

208
00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:10,240
Speaker 2: Well, but it may not be as much of a

209
00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:13,600
Speaker 2: problem if you're Israel or Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who

210
00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:15,760
Speaker 2: was here in Washington meeting with President Trump on the

211
00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:18,640
Speaker 2: issue of Iran last week. Evelyn, how much do you

212
00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:22,439
Speaker 2: think Trump's decision making will be influenced by what Netanyahu

213
00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:24,040
Speaker 2: does or does not want when it comes to the

214
00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:25,720
Speaker 2: ballistic missile program and other issues.

215
00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:30,080
Speaker 8: Yeah, it's interesting. I'm not sure what the answer to

216
00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:33,680
Speaker 8: that question is, because we know that, you know, Prime

217
00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:36,280
Speaker 8: Minister Netanyah who has been trying to, you know, put

218
00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:41,120
Speaker 8: pressure on President Trump to use force, I think, and

219
00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:43,360
Speaker 8: then at the same time, the golf allies have been

220
00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:47,199
Speaker 8: pressuring President Trump not to use force. I think President

221
00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:49,959
Speaker 8: Trump is probably taking his own counsel. I'm not sure

222
00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:53,560
Speaker 8: that he feels beholden to Israel in any way. I

223
00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:56,520
Speaker 8: think he does want to bring about political change in Iran,

224
00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:59,520
Speaker 8: and certainly he wants to eliminate the threat that's posed

225
00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:03,719
Speaker 8: to Israel and others by Iran's nuclear and missile capability.

226
00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:08,040
Speaker 4: Let's turn to Ukraine for a moment, Evelyn. Are you

227
00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:10,800
Speaker 4: encouraged by what you're hearing or are you concerned that

228
00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:13,959
Speaker 4: the President is turning on Volodimir Zelenski once again?

229
00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:17,600
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean this is the same dynamic, Joe, over

230
00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:20,960
Speaker 8: and over again. We see where President Trump is verbally

231
00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:26,040
Speaker 8: pressuring Ukraine and Ukraine has already compromised with itself in effect,

232
00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:28,640
Speaker 8: you know, through all the negotiations, the White House has

233
00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:30,640
Speaker 8: held the meetings, the White House is held with the

234
00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:33,360
Speaker 8: Ukraine to get them to a position, you know, the

235
00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:37,160
Speaker 8: most minimal position that they could accept. And at the

236
00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:40,240
Speaker 8: same time, the White House is not the pressure on Russia.

237
00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:43,160
Speaker 8: And of course because of that, in part, you know,

238
00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:46,640
Speaker 8: Russia has not compromised. So it's time for the White

239
00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,280
Speaker 8: House and the President to put pressure aro on Vladimir Putin.

240
00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:51,800
Speaker 8: I think, you know, once again they will find that

241
00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:55,600
Speaker 8: they have been disappointed by Russia at the negotiating table.

242
00:11:57,240 --> 00:12:00,559
Speaker 2: Pressure in what form, Evelyn, What would actually be effective

243
00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:03,480
Speaker 2: in getting Putin to change his mind around a war

244
00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:07,880
Speaker 2: that he has now been pursuing relentlessly for four years.

245
00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:11,440
Speaker 8: Yes, next, I mean right, The first step is putting,

246
00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:17,920
Speaker 8: you know, basically signing the sanctions legislation that I understand.

247
00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:20,600
Speaker 8: I was in Munich at the Security conference this past

248
00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:24,959
Speaker 8: weekend with Senator Graham. He's feeling really good about his bill,

249
00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:28,720
Speaker 8: the graand Blumenthal sanctions Bill, being put on the floor

250
00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:32,160
Speaker 8: of the Senate for a vote. Obviously not obviously we

251
00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:34,920
Speaker 8: know that the House also would have to have a

252
00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,840
Speaker 8: comparable bill. We know that there are the votes to

253
00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:40,440
Speaker 8: get it passed, to get it on the desk of

254
00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:43,360
Speaker 8: President Trump, and it's actually it's so high on the

255
00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:46,720
Speaker 8: Senate side that the President can't veto it. So that

256
00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:50,000
Speaker 8: would give him a real you know card, if you will,

257
00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:52,760
Speaker 8: said he can use against Putin to say, you know,

258
00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:55,880
Speaker 8: we're now sanctioning you're oil and gas, and you know

259
00:12:55,960 --> 00:13:00,000
Speaker 8: you're we're putting secondary sanctions. We're putting sanctions on those

260
00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:03,600
Speaker 8: countries that buy your oil and gas, and that will

261
00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:06,800
Speaker 8: hurt Putin because he's already having to draw down his

262
00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:09,440
Speaker 8: foreign reserves in order to keep this war going.

263
00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:10,480
Speaker 3: That's one.

264
00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:14,320
Speaker 8: And then we're providing more assistance to Ukraine, more military assistance,

265
00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:18,120
Speaker 8: getting more of those shadow tankers off the high seas.

266
00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:20,320
Speaker 8: You know, there are many things that we could be

267
00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:21,680
Speaker 8: doing to put pressure on Russia.

268
00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:25,840
Speaker 3: I'm sure this is part of your discussions in Munich. Evelyn.

269
00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:28,560
Speaker 4: Just back from the Munich Security Conference where the Secretary

270
00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:31,240
Speaker 4: of State Mark or Rubio was looming large this year

271
00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:35,480
Speaker 4: following Vice President JD Vance's speech in Munich last year

272
00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:39,160
Speaker 4: that really rubbed our European allies the wrong way and

273
00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:42,080
Speaker 4: kind of set the stage for some of the difficult

274
00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:46,679
Speaker 4: conversations we've had with our European allies. John Micklethwaite, our

275
00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:49,360
Speaker 4: editor in chief here at Bloomberg, sat down with Secretary

276
00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:50,960
Speaker 4: of Rubio to talk about his approach.

277
00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:51,679
Speaker 3: Here's what he said.

278
00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:54,600
Speaker 9: Vice President said last year very clearly was that europe

279
00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,760
Speaker 9: and made a series of decisions internally that were threatening

280
00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:00,640
Speaker 9: to the Alliance and ultimately to themselves. Not because we

281
00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:03,200
Speaker 9: hate Europe or we don't like Europeans, but because.

282
00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:04,240
Speaker 3: What is it that we fight for?

283
00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:06,920
Speaker 9: What is it that binds us together? And ultimately it's

284
00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:09,400
Speaker 9: the fact that we are both heirs to the same civilization,

285
00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:11,560
Speaker 9: and it's a great civilization, and it's one we should

286
00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:14,280
Speaker 9: be proud of. It's one that's contributed extraordinarily to the world,

287
00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:16,800
Speaker 9: and it's one, frankly, upon which America is built.

288
00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:21,640
Speaker 4: So do some reporting for us here in our remaining moment, Evelyn.

289
00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:25,160
Speaker 4: What was the feel on the ground. Was Secretary Rubio

290
00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:28,240
Speaker 4: looked at as the good cop to jd Vance's bad cop?

291
00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:33,400
Speaker 8: Largely speaking, Joe, yes, I think people did take a

292
00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:36,520
Speaker 8: sigh of relief because the tone was markedly different, and

293
00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:40,240
Speaker 8: he did say, you know, we're going to be together, however,

294
00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:43,120
Speaker 8: and that was kind of in the moment. However, subsequently,

295
00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:45,720
Speaker 8: as you know, some of the coverage of what Europeans

296
00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:48,440
Speaker 8: have said, when they took a look at the transcript,

297
00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:51,000
Speaker 8: when they looked at what the Secretary Rubio said a

298
00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:54,480
Speaker 8: little more closely, they questioned, what does this mean civilization?

299
00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:57,000
Speaker 8: And I think if you interpret it as a shared

300
00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:00,120
Speaker 8: adherence to the rule of law, you know, go going

301
00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:02,920
Speaker 8: back to Magna Carta and all of that, I think

302
00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:06,480
Speaker 8: that the Europeans would feel good. If it means something

303
00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:11,920
Speaker 8: more akin to a kind of white colonial interpretation of

304
00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:16,480
Speaker 8: our history, then people feel a little less reassured. But overall,

305
00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:17,720
Speaker 8: I would say the.

306
00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:22,920
Speaker 3: Feeling with Poda Farcas at the McCain Institute. Thank you.

307
00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:25,400
Speaker 3: This is Bob. Stay with us on Balance of Power.

308
00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:27,200
Speaker 3: We'll have much more coming up after this.

309
00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:34,920
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

310
00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:38,080
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

311
00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:41,440
Speaker 1: Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

312
00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:44,480
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

313
00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:49,320
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

314
00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:52,440
Speaker 3: On this Marti Grat twenty twenty six.

315
00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:55,200
Speaker 4: It is not only Fat Tuesday, it is also a

316
00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:57,520
Speaker 4: big day in the world of politics, with the first

317
00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:00,640
Speaker 4: votes being cast in this prime season.

318
00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:02,200
Speaker 3: This is it, right, This is day one.

319
00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:06,640
Speaker 4: Early voting begins in Texas, ten days worth as we

320
00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:10,200
Speaker 4: work our way to the primary on the third of March.

321
00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:12,000
Speaker 4: And you know, we've talked this up and down. This

322
00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:13,920
Speaker 4: could be one of the most expensive, if not the

323
00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:18,640
Speaker 4: most expensive, and certainly the most dramatic Senate race in

324
00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:23,040
Speaker 4: the country this season. And it's look, if you enjoy

325
00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:24,720
Speaker 4: this kind of stuff, this is going to be high

326
00:16:24,800 --> 00:16:27,760
Speaker 4: entertainment in some cases for all the wrong reasons. But

327
00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:29,760
Speaker 4: the fact is we're going to be heading for a runoff.

328
00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:33,240
Speaker 4: It looks like, depending on what happens here with the

329
00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,440
Speaker 4: primary itself March third, again, the runoff would follow on

330
00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:39,880
Speaker 4: May twenty six if nobody clears fifty percent, and based

331
00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:42,600
Speaker 4: on the polling we're seeing, that's probably not going to happen.

332
00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:46,480
Speaker 4: So Cornyn Paxton Hunt, that's your three way race. And

333
00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:48,600
Speaker 4: this is going to be a doozy unless, of course,

334
00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,960
Speaker 4: President Trump gets involved and people keep asking if he's

335
00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,520
Speaker 4: going to endorse in this race, and it sounds like, well, yeah,

336
00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:58,880
Speaker 4: but he's going to endorse everyone. You've seen this before.

337
00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:00,720
Speaker 4: Here's the president once one.

338
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,360
Speaker 7: I just haven't made a decision to that rash yet.

339
00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:04,760
Speaker 7: He's got a ways to go, and I have that

340
00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:06,639
Speaker 7: he's a good man. John is a good I like

341
00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,680
Speaker 7: all three of them faction. I like all three, go

342
00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:14,200
Speaker 7: say the tuftess Racis. They've all supported me. They're all good,

343
00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:16,960
Speaker 7: and you're supposed to pick one. So I'm gonna see

344
00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:17,439
Speaker 7: what happens.

345
00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:22,200
Speaker 4: They're all good, can't go wrong from the John, of course,

346
00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:23,840
Speaker 4: is John Corn and he's being asked, are you going

347
00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:28,040
Speaker 4: to support the incumbent, mister president, the long time senior

348
00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:29,359
Speaker 4: senator from Texas.

349
00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:33,080
Speaker 3: He says, well, I like them all, like all three.

350
00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:35,600
Speaker 4: So this is creating a bit of an issue here,

351
00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:41,199
Speaker 4: not that that's the only race in Texas, but this

352
00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:41,760
Speaker 4: is the one.

353
00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:43,479
Speaker 3: That's going to take all the attention.

354
00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:47,000
Speaker 4: Of course, uh Ken Paxon, of course, the Attorney general

355
00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,720
Speaker 4: here last night announcing an illegal voting tip line for

356
00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:50,440
Speaker 4: the primary.

357
00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:51,200
Speaker 3: So it's on.

358
00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:56,200
Speaker 4: As we assemble our political panel. Bloomberg Politics contributor Democratic

359
00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,760
Speaker 4: analyst Jeanie Shanzano is with us or Democracy visiting fellow

360
00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:03,280
Speaker 4: at her Rverick Kennedy School's Ash Center and Republican strategist.

361
00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:06,200
Speaker 4: Ashley Davis is back partner at S three Group, former

362
00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,879
Speaker 4: Special assistant to the Director of Homeland Security. It's going

363
00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:11,359
Speaker 4: to be great to hear from both. We've got a

364
00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:15,639
Speaker 4: great panel today. Great to see you both, Ashley.

365
00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:17,240
Speaker 3: I want to start with you in Texas because I'm

366
00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:17,800
Speaker 3: starting with.

367
00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:22,640
Speaker 4: The Republican primary today. Is Donald Trump going to pick

368
00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:25,480
Speaker 4: one of these gentlemen because it looks like we're going

369
00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:28,600
Speaker 4: to a runoff? Maybe he waits for May to start

370
00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,960
Speaker 4: naming names. What do you think, Joe, That's.

371
00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:32,520
Speaker 10: What I'm thinking.

372
00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:35,399
Speaker 11: He probably waits and sees what happens, you know, after

373
00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:39,080
Speaker 11: March third. Obviously, as you just said before we came on,

374
00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:40,400
Speaker 11: that it's going to.

375
00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:42,280
Speaker 10: Most likely go to a runoff.

376
00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:45,960
Speaker 11: You have the pulling showing that Paxton and Cornyn are

377
00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:48,480
Speaker 11: within the margin of air packs and up to Cornin

378
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:50,439
Speaker 11: up to depending on what poll you look at. But

379
00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:54,520
Speaker 11: to me, which is really interesting is Wesley Hunt's pulling

380
00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:58,800
Speaker 11: like twenty percent, which is super strong for him.

381
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:00,480
Speaker 10: I would think, though, what's.

382
00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:03,800
Speaker 11: Going to happen after March third, is that Paxton probably

383
00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:06,920
Speaker 11: doesn't make the runoff, and then you have I'm sorry,

384
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:08,840
Speaker 11: Hunt doesn't make the runoff, and then you just have

385
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:12,760
Speaker 11: Paxton versus Cornyn, and that will be going into March

386
00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:14,920
Speaker 11: twenty six, and that will be a much clearer race.

387
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:18,200
Speaker 11: Lots of people that I talked to in Texas that

388
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:21,720
Speaker 11: are my former colleagues or you know, Cornyn's great, he's

389
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:24,960
Speaker 11: been around for a long time. They think Paxton's not great,

390
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 11: and they like Wesley Hunt, but there's just absolutely no

391
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,200
Speaker 11: way to get him over the finish line at this point.

392
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:31,840
Speaker 3: So, huh interesting.

393
00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:36,120
Speaker 4: I think Corny's state wide race though, actually, oh that's

394
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:40,240
Speaker 4: cornn okay interesting because you know, you play this statewide

395
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 4: in Texas and Paxton is sounds a lot more like

396
00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:47,399
Speaker 4: a MAGA candidate than John Cornyn, right, I mean, you

397
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 4: still go advantage corn in a two way race.

398
00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:53,040
Speaker 10: I do, But here's why.

399
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,359
Speaker 11: I think people think that Paxston has a lot, a

400
00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:58,680
Speaker 11: lot of baggage. And if you talk to any Democrat,

401
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:00,800
Speaker 11: they would much rather want to run against Paxton and

402
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:04,879
Speaker 11: Cornyan obviously for obvious reasons, but just like we would

403
00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:09,359
Speaker 11: probably most likely win against Crockett. But I really think

404
00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,680
Speaker 11: that people still look at Paxson's history and think of

405
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:15,040
Speaker 11: him as maybe not a really good person, even though

406
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:16,160
Speaker 11: he is more MAGA.

407
00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:18,960
Speaker 10: But if Trump, listen, if it's a two way race and.

408
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 11: Then Cornan performs pretty well, maybe that's when Trump does

409
00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:22,960
Speaker 11: end up endorsing.

410
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:24,840
Speaker 10: I mean, I can't predict, No one can.

411
00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:27,359
Speaker 4: Sure, no, no, absolutely, it's going to be a heck

412
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 4: of a truth social whenever that comes out. Jeanie, let's

413
00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,399
Speaker 4: talk about the Democratic primary. And by the way, this

414
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,439
Speaker 4: tall Rico story on CBS is wild. This is the

415
00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:40,119
Speaker 4: night before Netflix suddenly has to wait to hear paramount

416
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:42,520
Speaker 4: with it. But let's just focus on what we're talking

417
00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:48,120
Speaker 4: about here. Stephen Colbert booked James Talrico, the Democratic Canady's

418
00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:50,119
Speaker 4: a state lawmaker. We've had him on this program a

419
00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 4: couple of times to join him in New York at

420
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 4: the desk. Apparently CBS told him he was not allowed

421
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:59,159
Speaker 4: to do that because of equal time laws at the

422
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,520
Speaker 4: FCC which have been left on the side of the

423
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 4: road years ago. But we'll acknowledge that. And so what

424
00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 4: they had to do, Genie is just put it on YouTube.

425
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 4: It didn't make the program, and as Colbert said, FCCU

426
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 4: Brendan Carr. But the fact is, you know how this works, Genie,

427
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 4: That'll get way more views than something that was scheduled

428
00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:22,919
Speaker 4: on CBSTV last night that may or may not have

429
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:25,960
Speaker 4: gone noticed. Now it's the banned interview, right, I can

430
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:27,800
Speaker 4: only imagine what will happen to the clicks. And as

431
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:32,000
Speaker 4: I read here in the Democratic primary, Jasmine Crockett, the congresswoman,

432
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 4: is leading with forty seven percent of the vote thirty

433
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:40,240
Speaker 4: nine percent. Representative James Tallerco, how are you viewing this contest?

434
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:45,560
Speaker 12: I'm smiling, Joe, because I'm so happy to talk about

435
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:47,120
Speaker 12: election season beginning.

436
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:50,359
Speaker 3: So thank you and answer very much, very happy.

437
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 10: Yeah, it's been a doozy.

438
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 12: This is one of the good things that has happened

439
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 12: to taller Ico. CBS should ban interviews more often. I'm

440
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,959
Speaker 12: sure as far as he's been earned, certainly this interview

441
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 12: would not get nearly the looks that it will now

442
00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 12: that it's been quote unquote banned. And of course this

443
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 12: has been a really tough and personal race you guys

444
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 12: were just talking about on the Republican side, but on

445
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 12: the Democratic side, you've had charges online of racist statements

446
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:20,200
Speaker 12: made by taller Rico.

447
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:22,000
Speaker 10: He says they weren't made.

448
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 6: You had a.

449
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 12: Former candidate and Colin already endorsing crocket You've had a

450
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 12: lot of concern amongst moderate Democrats that if Crockett wins,

451
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 12: she can't win. But I think, you know, just like

452
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 12: when Ashley was talking about the Republican side, where it's

453
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 12: sort of this, you know, moderate center of the road

454
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:44,880
Speaker 12: versus maga. In the Democratic side, there can be surprises

455
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:49,399
Speaker 12: because you know, Crockett for all of the challenges people

456
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 12: say that she has. She is running and saying I

457
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,120
Speaker 12: can bring out the vote, I can increase voter turnout

458
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 12: amongst the base.

459
00:22:57,359 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 10: She's like the Donald Trump of the.

460
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 12: Campaign, tall Rico, who's saying I will reach to the middle,

461
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 12: I'll pull those independents and those moderates and maybe Democrats

462
00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:08,400
Speaker 12: will for once in a century or something win Texas.

463
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,439
Speaker 12: It's all a very uphill battle for the Democrats, but

464
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 12: it really depends, you know, on who wins on the

465
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 12: Democratic side and who wins on the Republican Because of

466
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 12: course Crockett versus somebody like Paxton is far better for

467
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 12: the Democrats traditional thinking goes, than it is going to

468
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:30,159
Speaker 12: be Tallar Rico versus somebody like a pastain, who's.

469
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:31,920
Speaker 3: A better candidate stay wide in the primary? Is it

470
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 3: Tel Rico?

471
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:34,919
Speaker 7: You know?

472
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:35,920
Speaker 6: In the general?

473
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:37,639
Speaker 10: That's the traditional thinking.

474
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:41,200
Speaker 12: But Joe, I'm so over traditional thinking at this point

475
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 12: because every time we go there it seems to blow

476
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 12: up in its face. And I think you cannot deny

477
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 12: what a really accomplished politician Crockett is. But again, a

478
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,439
Speaker 12: lot of that depends on can she get people out

479
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 12: to vote and who can she run against? And of

480
00:23:55,760 --> 00:24:00,439
Speaker 12: course tall Rico comes with his own baggage. He's got

481
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 12: a little support from Colbert in the CBS, so that's

482
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 12: a good.

483
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 6: Thing for him.

484
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:04,160
Speaker 3: I guess.

485
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 4: So he's Joe Rogan on his side a couple months ago.

486
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 4: We'll see if that remains the case as we spend

487
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 4: time with our panel, Jeanie Shanzano and Ashley Davis the

488
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:16,640
Speaker 4: beginning of early voting. I'm psyched for campaign season as well.

489
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 4: You too, just spend too much time here in the bubble.

490
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,639
Speaker 4: But we have to talk about a major story that

491
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:24,359
Speaker 4: a lot of people woke up to this morning, and

492
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 4: that is the passing of Jesse Jackson, eighty four years old,

493
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,120
Speaker 4: surrounded by his family, of course, a prominent civil rights

494
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 4: leader and somebody who ran for president a couple of times.

495
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 4: Remembering this DNC speech in nineteen eighty four, I'm more.

496
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,680
Speaker 3: Convinced than Ebba. Then we can win.

497
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 13: We'll fot up the rough side of the mountain.

498
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 3: We can win.

499
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:53,679
Speaker 13: I just walked young America to do me one favor,

500
00:24:54,880 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 13: just one favor. Exercise the right to dream. You must

501
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 13: face reality that which is but benjuine, a little reality

502
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 13: that it ought to be.

503
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:11,640
Speaker 3: That must be.

504
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:18,959
Speaker 4: Some two decades even more before America elected its first

505
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 4: black president. Jennie, what are your thoughts on not just

506
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,879
Speaker 4: the legacy. You're going to hear a lot about that today.

507
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 4: I don't even know what that means all the time

508
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 4: when we talk about politicians, but the impact that he

509
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:34,880
Speaker 4: had on the Democratic base.

510
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 13: Was what.

511
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 12: Enormous. I mean, I think in the later part of

512
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:43,679
Speaker 12: the twentieth century, there's nobody on the Democratic side who

513
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,199
Speaker 12: had a bigger was a bigger force. He changed you

514
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:50,959
Speaker 12: heard the beautiful oratory there. He ran for president twice.

515
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,960
Speaker 12: He was a civil rights icon, working with Martin Luther King,

516
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:58,199
Speaker 12: he worked overseas. But what he did in terms of

517
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:03,119
Speaker 12: impacting black public officials running for office and seeing themselves

518
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 12: as people capable of running for office. So many of

519
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 12: them say today that they were told as children to

520
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 12: repeat the phrase that he made famous, I am somebody,

521
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:17,959
Speaker 12: and that was what helped them catapult into elected office

522
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 12: or into leadership at large. And he was not just

523
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 12: a great orator, he was a great political mind. Without

524
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:27,360
Speaker 12: him changing the way that we manage and count delegates

525
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 12: on the Democratic side and proportional representation, there would be

526
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 12: no Barack Obama. So in all ways, in every ways

527
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:38,400
Speaker 12: he changed things. He wasn't perfect, but his impact is enormous,

528
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 12: including two sons who have either been in or are

529
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 12: running for Congress. That's quite a legacy.

530
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 3: Yep, that's right.

531
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 4: And Jonathan Jackson is still reporting for work on Capitol

532
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 4: Hill Ashley. He of course was a Democrat, There's no

533
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 4: doubt there. But Jesse Jackson impacted politicians around the political

534
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 4: spectrum as a black man in this country running for

535
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 4: president mounting a serious campaign before that was considered mainstream.

536
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 11: Absolutely, and I also think Joe one of the things

537
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 11: that Genie was talking about about what he did for

538
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 11: black individuals and public leaders across the country. But also

539
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 11: remember in eighty four and eighty eight when he ran,

540
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 11: he also went and was able to bring in the

541
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 11: poor white people as well. I mean, there's an iconic

542
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 11: picture of him in Iowa with a you know, sitting

543
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 11: on a tractor with a bunch of white farmers around him.

544
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,159
Speaker 11: But I think that something that people have kind of

545
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,679
Speaker 11: been talking about this today as well, is kind of

546
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 11: that economic populist message that actually ironically Trump taps into

547
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 11: as well.

548
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 10: But he did that. He was the first to do that,

549
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:52,640
Speaker 10: and he was a brilliant communicator.

550
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:57,400
Speaker 11: He was somebody that was able to really utilize obviously

551
00:27:57,440 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 11: his gift of being able.

552
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 10: To message, but also the media.

553
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 11: If you think about eighty four eighty eight, and you

554
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 11: know there forward up until maybe Barack Obama JFK.

555
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 6: Maybe, or you know, a little earlier, they were not.

556
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 10: He was not.

557
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 11: He was able to get the populist message across differently

558
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:16,720
Speaker 11: than anybody else.

559
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,199
Speaker 4: Really interesting. I appreciate both of your thoughts on that.

560
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 4: Ashley Davis and Genie Shanzo, stay with us on Balance

561
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 4: of Power.

562
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 3: We'll have much more coming up after this.

563
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

564
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

565
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen

566
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

567
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

568
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 2: I'm Kaylee Lines alongside Joe Matthew. This is balance of

569
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 2: Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio where we want to

570
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 2: keep the focus on the markets for a minute longer,

571
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 2: because it surely has been a very volatile ride over

572
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 2: the last few weeks, and it seems that the start

573
00:28:57,720 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 2: of this trading week is no different.

574
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 3: We were down, now we're up or flat.

575
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 2: That could very well change in the next couple minutes

576
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 2: as we have this conversation with Christina Quino. She's managing

577
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 2: editor for the Bloomberg Markets Live blog and is joining

578
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 2: us now from New York. So, Christine, obviously there's been

579
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 2: a good deal of whiplash. A lot of it seems

580
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 2: to be centered around the AI narrative. Specifically, have we

581
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 2: figured out yet if this is going to be the

582
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 2: best thing ever that leads to all of these advances,

583
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 2: or potentially a worse thing that makes even the white

584
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 2: collar folks lose their job and makes some of these

585
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 2: publicly traded companies obviously well Kaylee.

586
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 14: If we knew the answer do that, then we wouldn't

587
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 14: be here, would be But sadly, unfortunately, I mean, the

588
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 14: jury is still very much out in terms of the

589
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 14: impact of AI and how much it could disrupt certain

590
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 14: industries and which industries even for that matter, I think

591
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 14: what the price action is telling us today, of course,

592
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 14: is that this is no longer a one way bet

593
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 14: in terms of risk sentiment. Last week it was very

594
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:56,120
Speaker 14: much a risk all sort of environment at tech of course,

595
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 14: leading the cell off there. But at this point we

596
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 14: have seen about a ten percent raw down in infotech

597
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 14: stocks on the S and P five hundred, and for

598
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 14: a lot of buyers, that's actually pretty attractive levels to

599
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 14: buy back in because at the end of the day,

600
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 14: I mean, the tech sector in a way can function

601
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 14: as a haven. Given that a lot of these companies

602
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 14: have very very large cash coffers, they still have a

603
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 14: lot of ability to spend, and so you know, when

604
00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:23,160
Speaker 14: you're looking for a relative haven, especially within the equity markets,

605
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 14: you'd probably want to turn into some of these biggest

606
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 14: companies as a way of protecting your money as opposed

607
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 14: to some of the more sensitive companies, to say fluctuations

608
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 14: and growth and consumer sentiment.

609
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 4: You know, I heard the words SaaS apocalypse so many

610
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 4: times over the weekend, Christine that I thought, maybe this

611
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 4: thing is over. But then I look down at Salesforce

612
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 4: and Microsoft's and the rest, and I see that software

613
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 4: is still out of fashion. Everybody's trying to figure out

614
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 4: if Anthropic and Claude are going to replace I guess

615
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 4: my Windows machine. But I'm also curious about cyber. We've

616
00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 4: talked about this before, and we have earnings after the

617
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 4: bell from Halo Alto. Could this be an inflection point where,

618
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 4: depending on what is said in this call, cyber is

619
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 4: siloed off from the rest of application software.

620
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 14: Yeah, I mean certainly a big, big question, especially for

621
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 14: companies such a Pola Alto jo right, because Yeah, on

622
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 14: the one hand, I mean the complex it's changing now.

623
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 14: It's really not just kind of a monolithic trade, the

624
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 14: AI trade, right, It is turning into winners and losers,

625
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 14: And obviously the SaaS apocalypse talk of last week very

626
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 14: much focusing in on some of the weaker spots of

627
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 14: the AI complex. And so when you talk about cyber,

628
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 14: of course, I mean, they of course have something different

629
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:44,880
Speaker 14: to offer that is difficult for some AI to replicate,

630
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 14: but not entirely right. And so it really is a

631
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 14: question of to what extent companies like Paula Alter and

632
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 14: the services that they provide are seen as valuable enough

633
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 14: for investors to pay up the premium versus something that

634
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 14: maybe could be done AI. Maybe not now, but perhaps

635
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 14: in a few years.

636
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 4: You could just tell that Christine reads analyst notes all

637
00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 4: morning for breakfast.

638
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 3: I love it. It's my favorite telic city.

639
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 4: Oh I bet that's true. It's great to see you,

640
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 4: Christina Quino. As the Nasdaq turns positive again, up about

641
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 4: a third of a percent or eighty four points. Palo

642
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,200
Speaker 4: Alto for what it's worth, just because we mentioned that

643
00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 4: still trending lower. It's down about one and a half

644
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 4: percent ahead of earnings, and CrowdStrike is lower for that matter.

645
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 4: So we'll keep tabs on that with an important conversation

646
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 4: Kayleie after the bell on the late edition of Balance

647
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 4: of Power with the CEO of Palo Alto and Ludlow

648
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 4: will bring us that conversation and we're looking forward to.

649
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 3: It on what is day four.

650
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 4: If you haven't been reminded, it's certainly not on the

651
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 4: front page in any major American newspaper, day four of

652
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 4: a partial government shutdown, realizing, of course, that ICE is

653
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 4: getting money from the big beautiful bill. This in a

654
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 4: couple of weeks or even less once we get into March,

655
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:55,960
Speaker 4: could become a much more urgent feeling issue with FEMA,

656
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 4: the TSA, the Coastguard all set to go without pay.

657
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 4: And that's where we start our conversation with Congresswoman Dina Titus,

658
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 4: the Democrat from Nevada's first district. Yes, our eyes are

659
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 4: on Las Vegas, and it's great to see you once again, Congresswoman.

660
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 4: Here on Bloomberg TV and radio. Lawmakers are gone for

661
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 4: the rest of this week. I know that members of

662
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 4: the House and Senate will be back next but there

663
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 4: does seem to be a path for a breakthrough on

664
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 4: a deal here when it comes to dmasking or warrantless raids.

665
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 4: Unless you're hearing something differently, Congresswoman, what's going to happen here?

666
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 3: How long could this last?

667
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 10: Well?

668
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 6: I'm not I understand.

669
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:35,120
Speaker 15: Maybe we've offered something else to the Republicans, but the

670
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 15: Senate's gone. I mean, they're in Munich at the conference,

671
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 15: or if some of them are at the Olympics. And

672
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 15: need to get back here and make some plans. You

673
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:47,480
Speaker 15: know this, the shutdown really hurts Nevada. If you don't

674
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 15: have TSA. Our tourism is already negatively impacted by this administration,

675
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 15: and this will just hurt more. And there's such an

676
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 15: easy solution. Pull those out, pull out FEMA, pull out TSA,

677
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 15: pull out guard fund.

678
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 6: Them and send them on their way, and then.

679
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 15: Deal with the safeguards that we can put in place

680
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:09,640
Speaker 15: with ICE. You know, we can't cut off their money

681
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:12,399
Speaker 15: because they got all that money back in the big

682
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 15: beautiful bill, so they're funded. They can do whatever they want.

683
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:19,240
Speaker 15: They've got the sixteenth largest military budget in the world.

684
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:22,320
Speaker 6: But we could put those guardrails in place.

685
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 2: Well, so what guardrails at the end of this, Congressman,

686
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 2: do you expect will be put into place? Is the

687
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 2: White House actually more flexible and Republicans more flexible than

688
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 2: they're suggesting publicly.

689
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:34,759
Speaker 6: At this time?

690
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 2: Are you hearing that from your leadership?

691
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:37,959
Speaker 6: Well, you would hope.

692
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 7: So.

693
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:40,880
Speaker 15: I can't speak for the White House. I never know

694
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,440
Speaker 15: what they're gonna do, but the Republicans are saying no

695
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 15: to the mask. Now, you know, matt Our police officers,

696
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 15: our law enforcement. They don't wear masks, they wear name tags.

697
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 15: You know who they are. They have to have help

698
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 15: to go into a place. They don't just these broad

699
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 15: rays like ICE does. There are certain rules of how

700
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 15: they operate. We're not asking any more of them than

701
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 15: we ask of our regular law enforcement. And I don't

702
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,320
Speaker 15: know what the problem is and why they can't agree

703
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 15: to that.

704
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 4: I know you're on the Transportation Committee in the House,

705
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 4: Congresswoman TSA is going to start missing paychecks if I'm correct,

706
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:25,359
Speaker 4: the first.

707
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 3: Week of March.

708
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,719
Speaker 4: Are there going to be any accommodations made for these

709
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,439
Speaker 4: workers or are they going to start having some tough

710
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 4: memories from the last shutdown?

711
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 15: Well, the last one, remember was a record forty something

712
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:41,240
Speaker 15: days here at herein airport.

713
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 6: We had food banks set up.

714
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 15: I helped them get gas cards from the convention center

715
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 15: so they could get back and forth to work. Private

716
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:53,840
Speaker 15: sector helped to make donations. So they were depending on

717
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 15: the goodness of people's hearts because they weren't getting those

718
00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 15: paychecks from the federal government. Now they got them after fact,

719
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 15: but that doesn't help you pay the rent as you

720
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 15: go along. So you know, morale is already low tosay,

721
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 15: they have to put up with a lot degree from

722
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 15: dissatisfied customers coming through who don't want to open up

723
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 15: their suitcases, and now you're asking them to do it

724
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:18,719
Speaker 15: and keep us all safe while not even giving them

725
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 15: the respect of a paycheck.

726
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:24,359
Speaker 2: Well, so how long should they be expected to go

727
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 2: without a paycheck? We know, as we were alluding to

728
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:30,760
Speaker 2: the record shutdown that was more than forty days at

729
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 2: the tail end of last year, Congressman, should we expect

730
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 2: that this could take longer than that? If masks and

731
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 2: other issues remain so firmly stuck with your side wanting

732
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 2: one thing and the White House and Republicans wanting the other?

733
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 2: Could this last longer than that? Given that it is

734
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 2: only one agency shut down and the pen is felt

735
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:50,759
Speaker 2: in a relatively small group of people.

736
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 6: Well it shouldn't matter.

737
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 15: This shouldn't last any longer than any one day, and

738
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 15: hopefully we could get something done before this kicks in

739
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 15: the first of March so they don't have to go

740
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:06,400
Speaker 15: without a paycheck. But if the Republicans refused any of

741
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 15: these crackdowns on the way ICE is operating, it's going

742
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:13,040
Speaker 15: to be hard to come to a deal. Now, last

743
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 15: time with the healthcare and with the short term CR.

744
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 15: Some Democrats who said they were going to stand form

745
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 15: peeled off and voted with the Republicans for some kind

746
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 15: of accommodation. If they do that, the only accommodation I

747
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 15: can imagine is another CR maybe to the end of

748
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 15: the physical year. This time it was two weeks, and

749
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,840
Speaker 15: nobody thought they could get it solved in two weeks.

750
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 15: But one thing that's really important to remember is the

751
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:42,880
Speaker 15: public is with the Democrats on this. All the polling

752
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:46,400
Speaker 15: shows that the public thinks that these ice characters should

753
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 15: follow the same rules as regular law enforcement. That's all

754
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 15: that we're asking, and the public agrees with that. They've

755
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:56,800
Speaker 15: seen the pictures of Minneapolis. They've said, this is too much.

756
00:37:57,120 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 15: This is not what we expected from an age. See.

757
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:03,200
Speaker 6: They was supposed to just be going after the bad jazz.

758
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 3: Congress. I'm going to talk to your friend Derek Stevens.

759
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 4: A couple of weeks ago before the Super Bowl, we

760
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:13,480
Speaker 4: talked about your bet act, and we also got into

761
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 4: the role that prediction markets have been playing and not playing,

762
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 4: depending on how you look at this. In the gambling business,

763
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,800
Speaker 4: you've got something called the fair markets and Sports Integrity

764
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:27,320
Speaker 4: Act to stop prediction markets from skirting state gaming laws,

765
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 4: which is a big deal for a guy like Derek

766
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:32,640
Speaker 4: Stevens because he runs Circa and a couple of other

767
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 4: He owns and runs these casino resorts in Las Vegas.

768
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 3: I want you to listen to what he said and

769
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:38,880
Speaker 3: get your reaction.

770
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:42,200
Speaker 16: They're not paying any state income tax, they're not paying

771
00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 16: anything into problem gambling. They're not paying a federal excise tax.

772
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 16: You know, I realized there's a little bit of a

773
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 16: surge of, oh, let's support prediction markets, but I don't

774
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:55,239
Speaker 16: think that's necessarily the right long term path here.

775
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:56,759
Speaker 3: We think about it this way.

776
00:38:57,040 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 16: If someone hijacked a truck that had nothing but big

777
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:03,879
Speaker 16: screen televisions and brought that truck into the parking lot

778
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 16: of a Best Buy and was able to sell and

779
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 16: sell these TVs at half price, would we really be

780
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 16: supporting these marauders the way it seems like it is.

781
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 3: I don't think so.

782
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 16: And I think prediction markets have a great spot in America,

783
00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:19,919
Speaker 16: in our economy, in our ecosystem, But what they're doing

784
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 16: with sports betting, it's a little bit crazy.

785
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 3: He calls them marauders.

786
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 4: Congresswoman do you have support for that bill in Washington?

787
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 3: Will you bring Derek Stevens here to testify.

788
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 15: Well, Derek has been a great friend and an ally

789
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 15: on my bill to allow one hundred percent deduction from

790
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:40,880
Speaker 15: your losses for your income taxes and that Phanom money.

791
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:43,239
Speaker 15: So he has been a friend and I agree with

792
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 15: him on these prediction markets. You know, for the last decade,

793
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 15: state by state, tribe by tribe have put in place

794
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 15: regulations for sports betting, and some places have said no,

795
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 15: we don't want any sports betting in our state. Now

796
00:39:57,920 --> 00:40:01,239
Speaker 15: to just throw that out and totally ignit by cal

797
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:04,719
Speaker 15: she and Polly market because they want to do this

798
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 15: without any of those guard rails, I don't think is right.

799
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 10: Now.

800
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,919
Speaker 15: I have the bill as you mentioned, that would stop that.

801
00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 15: I'm not saying do away with those. If they want

802
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:18,919
Speaker 15: to do innovation and they want to offer which bet

803
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 15: on which bird flew off the wire, Jesus is coming back,

804
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 15: or what's Swiftly gonna wear, that's all fine. So when

805
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 15: you move into the sports betting market, then you have

806
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 15: got to follow the rules. So if you want to

807
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:33,759
Speaker 15: offer sports bets, fine, but just follow the rules of

808
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 15: the states where they're already established.

809
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 2: Well, Congressoman, you refer to the state's rules here. And

810
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 2: the new chair of the CFTC, Mike Selig, suggested today

811
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 2: that this should be the CFTC's purview prediction markets. They

812
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 2: should oversee it at the federal level, not do it Steve.

813
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:48,959
Speaker 2: By Steve, what's your response to.

814
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 15: That, Well, we've never had federal regulation of gaming. It's

815
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:55,759
Speaker 15: always been left to the states. And this agency is

816
00:40:55,840 --> 00:41:00,800
Speaker 15: set up to oversee commodities markets. That's usually fort bellies

817
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 15: and corn things like that. They do a good job

818
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 15: of that, but they are not equipped to regulate gaming.

819
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:10,279
Speaker 15: They don't have the expertise, they don't have the bandwidth,

820
00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:13,279
Speaker 15: they don't have the resources to do it. Now, let's

821
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:19,439
Speaker 15: also remember that there's some inside a little collaboration here,

822
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:21,399
Speaker 15: I guess might be the word for it, because you've

823
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 15: got the president's son sitting on the board of the

824
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 15: two biggest prediction market companies, Calshi and Polymarket, and this

825
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:33,120
Speaker 15: person has been appointed. Who's now kind of in his

826
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:37,280
Speaker 15: argument to the courts, not mentioning sports betting, but mentioning

827
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 15: innovation and opportunity, he also fails to mention the things

828
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:45,640
Speaker 15: that Derek Steven mentioned, no taxes, no protection for the gamer,

829
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:48,160
Speaker 15: no program Thomers.

830
00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:50,680
Speaker 2: We have to leave it there, but thank you so

831
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:52,240
Speaker 2: much for joining us Democratic Congress.

832
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:55,880
Speaker 4: Froman Dina Titus, Thanks for listening to the Balance of

833
00:41:55,960 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 4: Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already Apples, Spotify,

834
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:03,319
Speaker 4: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

835
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 4: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

836
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:08,760
Speaker 4: at Bloomberg dot com.