1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg's Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along 2 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brawmowitz Jaily, we bring you 3 00:00:13,280 --> 00:00:18,600 Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot Com, 5 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:30,320 Speaker 1: and of course, on the Bloomberg Terminal. Bob Miller, head 6 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: of America's Fundamental fixed income truly with decades of experience, 7 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:38,560 Speaker 1: Bob Miller, what is the symbolism if the Lehman Barclays 8 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Total Return aggregate index breaks down to new lower 9 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 1: price and a higher yield, how do you redefine the 10 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 1: bear market if we get that technical breakdown? Well, good morning, Tom, 11 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 1: I hope all of you are well. It's good to 12 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 1: be with you. Um. Look, I I we we think 13 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 1: that yields are now reasonable. So yes, they can you know, 14 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 1: prices can go down and yields can go higher from here. 15 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 1: But but we're in the range of reasonable fixed income offers. 16 00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 1: You know, some some reasonably attractive opportunities today after for 17 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 1: the first time since two thousand and eighteen UM and 18 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 1: and certainly after the period of of no opportunity two 19 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 1: years ago and a year ago. So you can build 20 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 1: a high quality portfolio that has a four to five 21 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:33,400 Speaker 1: percent yield, including treasuries, you know, high quality credit even 22 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:36,039 Speaker 1: high quality adds some high quality high yield in the 23 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:38,040 Speaker 1: eight and a half to nine percent range. You can 24 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:41,120 Speaker 1: build a pretty attractive portfolio for the first time in years, 25 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:45,399 Speaker 1: and specifically in US fixed income. And we think that 26 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: that's uh, that's something that investors ought to be thinking 27 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 1: about for the next year. No doubt, things have been 28 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 1: ugly this year, and and there's no near term relief 29 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 1: in sight. But valuations matter, and and these valuations look 30 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: look reasonable to us. They look reasonable compared perhaps to 31 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 1: a year ago. They won't necessarily look as reasonable any year. 32 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:08,360 Speaker 1: If ten your treasury yields are five, where some people 33 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 1: are gonna be suggesting they could be. Are you in 34 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:13,520 Speaker 1: the camp that says that we have seen peak yields 35 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 1: on tenure, that we're close to it, even as we 36 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 1: do see them start to climb and push up against 37 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:20,519 Speaker 1: and test some of the highs that we've seen of 38 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:23,799 Speaker 1: the cycle. Yeah, at least I don't know if we've 39 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 1: seen the peak, but but I think we're close. Me 40 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 1: because we're in the camp that inflation is going to decelerate, 41 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,920 Speaker 1: growth is going to decelerate. I think it's a it's 42 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:37,359 Speaker 1: it's it's really important to keep in mind the magnitude 43 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 1: of the financial conditions tightening that the Fed has engineered. 44 00:02:40,160 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 1: In just six months time, they're going to raise rates 45 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:46,239 Speaker 1: by another seventy most likely in less than two weeks time, 46 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,640 Speaker 1: pushing the funds right to three. That's in a six 47 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:52,679 Speaker 1: month period of time, three basis points off zero, six 48 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 1: d basis points annualized. Right, this is this is not 49 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 1: an insignificant move. It's a it's a meaningful move, and 50 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 1: and takes time, right the famous long and variable legs. 51 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:06,640 Speaker 1: It takes time for policy adjustments easing and tightening to 52 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:09,360 Speaker 1: work their way through all of the cracks in the economy. 53 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:13,160 Speaker 1: It's coming, I think it'll be. It'll be very unlikely 54 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 1: that we we look up in three to six months 55 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 1: time and growth and inflation haven't slowed by a sufficient 56 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 1: amount that the Fed is probably able to pause with 57 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:26,240 Speaker 1: rates around four percent and just sit there for a while. 58 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 1: So in order to get a five ten year on 59 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:31,920 Speaker 1: a one year horizon, a lot of things have to 60 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 1: go wrong, right, I just that just maybe it could be, 61 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 1: but but a lot of things already have gone wrong, 62 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 1: and I think it's it's a little dangerous to extrapolate 63 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:44,640 Speaker 1: the last nine months into the next nine months without 64 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:49,520 Speaker 1: considering what's happening to financial conditions in the US economy. 65 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 1: They are tighter, yeah, though you do still see the 66 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 1: consumer having some strength, particularly with oil prices or at 67 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 1: least gasoline prices coming down a bit. Have we fully 68 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 1: taken into account the fact that Europe has also moved 69 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: away from negative fielding machine with the biggest ever rate 70 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 1: hike at the ECB meeting last week, and it's poised 71 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 1: to do more. That there is a cohesive and global 72 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 1: synchronized rate hiking cycle that we really haven't seen in 73 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:18,039 Speaker 1: modern history. Yeah, it's a great point, and it would 74 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 1: I would argue that that adds to the the reality 75 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 1: of financial conditions tightening in a lot of different places, 76 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 1: not just the United States, and that will ultimately have 77 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:33,360 Speaker 1: a delayed but but likely a real impact on growth 78 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 1: and inflation over the next year or two. Keep in mind, 79 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:39,280 Speaker 1: there's one central bank that that isn't participating that we 80 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:42,120 Speaker 1: think will will likely be forced to buy their own 81 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 1: inflation dynamics in Japan. Sometime over the next six to 82 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 1: nine months, we wouldn't be at all surprised to see 83 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 1: the yield curve control um program that's been in place 84 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 1: for some time at a minimum adjusted slightly, if not 85 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 1: adjusted by you know, a reasonable amount. I probably gotta 86 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:01,680 Speaker 1: pick up on that phonic question, what does that mean? 87 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 1: And how would the rest of the global bond market 88 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:08,599 Speaker 1: response to a move like that? Yeah, so, Jonathan, great question. 89 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: That that's where like if you asked me, what's the 90 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 1: scenario where the question Lisa mentioned about a five percent 91 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 1: treasury yield? What what's this? What's the scenario where that's 92 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 1: a reality? It's either it's either just unbelievably persistently high 93 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 1: inflation um that the FED cannot get under control, so 94 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 1: the front end is likely at five if not higher, 95 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 1: or it's some resumption of global term premium by the 96 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 1: you know, the ECB not only not only turning off QUI, 97 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:40,839 Speaker 1: but perhaps even pursuing some balance you run off, and importantly, 98 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 1: the Bank of Japan abandoning yield curve control. I think 99 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: all of that, each one of those is individually pretty 100 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:50,599 Speaker 1: pretty low odds. But but that is the scenario where 101 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 1: if you want to get really bearish on bonds, I 102 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 1: think you've got to have something like that in mind, Bob, 103 00:05:55,120 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 1: Thank you. Katy. Kamensk joins out. It's been a joy 104 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 1: to speak to a chief research strategist at Alpha Simplex 105 00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 1: about trend because she off of Andrew lowd M I 106 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:13,599 Speaker 1: t is a slave to trend is full disclosure. I 107 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 1: am too, Katy. What is the trend now and is 108 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,559 Speaker 1: the trend different than what we saw in the last 109 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:23,160 Speaker 1: two weeks of June. Yes, I mean, I think we've 110 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:27,360 Speaker 1: seen the short bond signals as well as long long 111 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 1: positioning and dollar be very dominant recently. But in the 112 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 1: last two weeks we've really seen an influx of risk 113 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:36,920 Speaker 1: on behavior, a lot of buying pressure, particularly in the 114 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 1: equity sector. And this is somewhat of an indication that 115 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 1: people are getting optimistic, they're ready to put money back 116 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 1: in the market. But the question is going to be 117 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:50,720 Speaker 1: is it too early? That's the question that cities asking. 118 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 1: This is what Andrew hollen Host and the team had 119 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:54,840 Speaker 1: to say this morning. They published just moments ago. Read 120 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 1: through it. Despite the pricing in of hikes, risk on prevails. 121 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,160 Speaker 1: The message at Jackson Hall was clear the FED will 122 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 1: lean against LUCA financial conditions until inflation has convincingly slowed 123 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:06,479 Speaker 1: the team. Ever, City go on to say, maybe the 124 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 1: FED will be incentivized to push against the nice and 125 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 1: risk rally. Do you agree with that, Katy? I do 126 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: agree with it, but I also think it could take 127 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 1: longer than people expect. And the fact that the FED 128 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 1: is remaining steady is they're setting a signal that they're 129 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,280 Speaker 1: thinking a little differently than the market. And I think 130 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 1: we've been the most surprised to see that the market 131 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 1: is more optimistic than FED commentary, and that suggests that 132 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 1: there's perhaps maybe a little bit more that we need 133 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 1: to think about going forward, and that we might see 134 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 1: a little bit of reversion. We'll see what the CPI 135 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 1: looks like today, but you know, you're gonna have to 136 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 1: see how winter unfolds and how we handle some of 137 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:47,960 Speaker 1: these energy issues and other problems. We haven't even really 138 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:50,480 Speaker 1: seen q T yet, so I think it's going to 139 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 1: take time to know. But I'm a little bit less 140 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 1: optimistic than the market think. Katie John was talking earlier 141 00:07:56,840 --> 00:08:00,320 Speaker 1: about how we should just interview with med medeollergists all day, 142 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 1: and that might be as good as interviewing prognosticators on 143 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 1: the market, because that might be what determines the market. 144 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 1: So what is the bond response? What is the stock 145 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 1: response to uh, really cold winter one in which the 146 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 1: energy shortfall becomes more acute. I mean this is a 147 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: serious issue because if you see people dealing with higher 148 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 1: interest rates in terms of their payments, and you're also 149 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 1: seeing people dealing with higher costs, it could really be 150 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 1: a difficult situation, particularly for Europe UM and so I 151 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 1: think people really need to think about looking at those 152 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 1: prices as we roll into the winter season. We're just 153 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:38,959 Speaker 1: now starting to move towards December contracts and farther out 154 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 1: in the curve. So I do agree with John that 155 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 1: you know, it's really going to depend on how we 156 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:49,319 Speaker 1: weather the winter um as as the price pressure is real. Katie, 157 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 1: we're speaking with you after you got a thirty eight 158 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 1: percent gain in Alpha Simplex's main fund as a result 159 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 1: of selling short bonds, something that hasn't worked for years. 160 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 1: At what point do double down on that short position 161 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 1: at a time where you think the market's getting it 162 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 1: wrong and underestimating the Feds resolve. So I think one 163 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:10,719 Speaker 1: thing to know about trend falling is what we do 164 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 1: is follow trends, And the truth is that the market, 165 00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:17,439 Speaker 1: particularly in really difficult environments, is often a better bastion 166 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 1: of information than one individual or anyone particular view. And 167 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 1: so what we've seen now, which is kind of why 168 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:27,440 Speaker 1: I'm saying it's surprising, is that short bond trends are 169 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:31,079 Speaker 1: still there, that positioning is still very strong in the data, 170 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 1: and we could definitely see even though rates are reasonable 171 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 1: than becoming more unreasonable in the short term. Can you 172 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 1: corral a short bond bond priced down yield up into 173 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:49,200 Speaker 1: an equity bet on trend? Yes, I mean as once 174 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 1: we see that things have leveled out. I think I've 175 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:54,319 Speaker 1: always said that this is an an equity story, it's 176 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:57,200 Speaker 1: a bond story. So once we see that bonds have 177 00:09:57,320 --> 00:09:59,839 Speaker 1: stabilized and we have a much more healthy curve and 178 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 1: more of a risk premium out in the curve, so 179 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 1: we see much more of a steeper curve, I would 180 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:07,679 Speaker 1: think that that's really sort of a risk on signal 181 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:09,959 Speaker 1: that where you can all start to think about those 182 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 1: premiums as opposed to the potential destruction of great rises, 183 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:17,199 Speaker 1: because we all forget even though it's better going forward, 184 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 1: the bonds were now really take a hit. They all 185 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 1: felt that this year. Okay, let's go mathy here. We're 186 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 1: doing this on a Monday. We can go math Monday 187 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:30,199 Speaker 1: here as well. Is the disinversion of the curve important 188 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 1: or is it the first derivative rate of change of 189 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 1: sad disinversion? For me, it's much more the inversion of 190 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:40,079 Speaker 1: the curve that's going to matter. I mean, that tells 191 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 1: us something about the disparity between what we're thinking about 192 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:46,040 Speaker 1: short term rates and long term rates. And if you 193 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 1: look empirically at signals in terms of trend and direction 194 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 1: of bonds, you see that bonds have tended to fall 195 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:56,320 Speaker 1: when the curve is more inverted. And thus, if we 196 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 1: continue to see that inversion signal, we're going to see 197 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:02,959 Speaker 1: that there's some sort of bearished you on bonds until 198 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:05,200 Speaker 1: we can kind of see that longer term risk premio, 199 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 1: that steepness really be an issue. So I'd say first 200 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:13,680 Speaker 1: derivative Ketty Kamisney, thank you for Alpha simplex, the lightst 201 00:11:13,679 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 1: in the bond market. So right now we turn to Ukraine. 202 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 1: Has been a absolutely unique weekend of infantry movement, which 203 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:33,959 Speaker 1: means only we can speak with General Hodges. Ben Hodges 204 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:37,120 Speaker 1: is a former Commanding General for US Army Europe. He 205 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:39,720 Speaker 1: is a perching chair and Strategic Studies at super But 206 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 1: so importantly, Ben Hodges, I'm going to go back to 207 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 1: you doing what you do best. You were an instructor 208 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:51,680 Speaker 1: at the United United States Army Infantry School. When you 209 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:56,800 Speaker 1: instruct infantry, and particularly if the Ukraine's going after rapidly 210 00:11:56,920 --> 00:12:03,400 Speaker 1: retreating Russians, what should they do? Uh? Three things? Number one, 211 00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:06,320 Speaker 1: do not let up the pressure. Do not give the 212 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 1: Russians a chance to stop and turn around and fight, 213 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 1: So that that's number one. Number two, keep using your 214 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 1: combined arms in other words, infantry, tanks, artillery, engineers, all 215 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 1: of these things working together. That's what Ukraine is doing 216 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 1: so well, and that the Russians have not done well. 217 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 1: And then finally, unleash Ukrainian air power. Um, even though 218 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:35,560 Speaker 1: the Russians had all the advantages, they've never been able 219 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:38,839 Speaker 1: to dominate the airspace over Ukraine. And I think Ukrainians 220 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: are gonna try and take advantage of that. This conversation 221 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: reminds me of one U. S. Grant, an unknown going 222 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: down the Mississippi River and teaching the North how to 223 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:53,719 Speaker 1: prosecute a full force invasion. What do we need from 224 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 1: the Ukraine's Ukrainians now to be like Grant in our 225 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 1: civil war? Is it simply they need more MATI You're 226 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 1: real well, for sure, they have the same sort of 227 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:07,560 Speaker 1: strategic eye as General Grant did. That this is about 228 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 1: you have to crush your enemy. And that's that's from 229 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 1: President jelinskying down. He said, this thing started with Crimeana, 230 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 1: is going to end with Crimea. And so what they 231 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:20,439 Speaker 1: do need from us, of course two things. When they 232 00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 1: need continued delivery of the type of weapons and ammunition 233 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:27,920 Speaker 1: that are helping them make the difference to destroy Russian logistics, 234 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 1: destroy Russian command and control, but also the sanctions that 235 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 1: the sanctions really are having an effect on Russia's ability, 236 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:42,199 Speaker 1: both in terms of their own defense industry, but also domestically. 237 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:44,680 Speaker 1: I think more and more Russian people are beginning to 238 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:50,440 Speaker 1: feel this war that Pugin was trying to shield from them. Well, 239 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 1: Lieutenant General, that's why I wanted to go. Because there 240 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: is some discussion about the possibility of conscription. If Vladimir 241 00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 1: Putin does not want to come to the table does 242 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:00,120 Speaker 1: not want to come to some sort of resolution, and 243 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 1: if he is running out of troops, as the reports 244 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 1: have suggested, what is Vladimir's Vladimir Putin's response to this. 245 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:11,320 Speaker 1: How concerned are you about some retaliatory measure that we're 246 00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 1: perhaps not expecting. Well, you're right that they have a 247 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 1: very serious manpower problem. Uh in the Russian military, which 248 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 1: is not doesn't sound like what I would have said 249 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:26,760 Speaker 1: a year ago. Uh. Most of their recruits now, many 250 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:30,600 Speaker 1: of them are conscripts, come from a way outside of Moscow, 251 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 1: in St. Petersburg. The Kremlin has tried to avoid drafting 252 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:38,360 Speaker 1: anybody from the two major metropolitan areas because again they 253 00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 1: want to shield the public from what's happening in Ukraine. 254 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 1: Uh that nobody wants to fight, nobody wants to get 255 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 1: involved in this war. They know what's going to happen 256 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,360 Speaker 1: if they do get sent into Ukraine. So I think 257 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 1: part of the reason President Putin has avoided doing this 258 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: general mobilization is because he wants to preserve the fairy tale. 259 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:03,320 Speaker 1: But also they'll be humiliated. People will not show up. 260 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 1: They don't have the equipment to to equip that at 261 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 1: the uniforms and weapons to equip another hundred thousand troops, 262 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 1: and it would still be months before they would be 263 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: effective in any way. So attend in general, how does 264 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:21,320 Speaker 1: this end? And does it reassert Russia as a member 265 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:24,479 Speaker 1: of the global economy or does it leave it incredibly isolated. 266 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a long time before we 267 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 1: can look at Russian and work with them as if 268 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 1: things are quasa normal. Um this will end. I believe 269 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 1: early next year. The Ukrainians are going to push the 270 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 1: Russians back to the twenty three February line before the 271 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 1: end of this year. I believe, of course I could 272 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 1: be proven wrong here in another month or two, but 273 00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 1: that's how I think that's going to happen. And then 274 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 1: Crimea probably early sometime next year, a combination of fighting 275 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 1: and perhaps some negotiated conclusion. But the Ukrainians are not 276 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 1: going to start, nor should they stop. What does Russia 277 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:04,640 Speaker 1: look look like when this is over? Of course I 278 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:08,640 Speaker 1: cannot for sure what kind of friction and things are 279 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 1: happening inside the Kremlin. We're all seeing various reports of 280 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: things that are happening. There, a lot of finger pointing, 281 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 1: and people may start falling out of windows again. I mean, 282 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 1: it's going to be a pretty rough scene around Moscow, 283 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:24,000 Speaker 1: I think for the next few months. General, thank you, 284 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:26,120 Speaker 1: we appreciate it's on today, said ben Hall. It just 285 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:28,320 Speaker 1: that a form of commanding general for the U S 286 00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: Sami Shulmanack now joins us for an important briefing. Why 287 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 1: is this important? He is one of the great students 288 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: of continental economics. It matters for America right now with 289 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 1: the trading relationships that we have, Shelle, what is the 290 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:49,680 Speaker 1: distinctive uncertainty you have in the fourth quarter. You are 291 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 1: covering on a global basis, but you are covering for 292 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 1: Europe a continent in war. What is the distinctive uncertainty 293 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:02,200 Speaker 1: you face in the fourth quarter? Well, you know, Q 294 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 1: three we still had some support from the fact that 295 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 1: we reopen our economy a bit later than the US. So, 296 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 1: for instance, we had really nice spending on tourism, recreational 297 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:15,560 Speaker 1: activities and and so forth. That goes away in in 298 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:19,360 Speaker 1: Q four, and we have this major uncertainty on the 299 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 1: price of gas, and beyond the price of gas, the 300 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:26,639 Speaker 1: availability of gas. So at this juncture we're still waiting 301 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:30,080 Speaker 1: for the details of the EU policy on on the 302 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 1: possibility of of gas rationing and how the electricity marks 303 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 1: can be can be reformed um and we need to 304 00:17:37,000 --> 00:17:39,399 Speaker 1: to know whether or not they will need to be 305 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:43,119 Speaker 1: some actual rationing of of gas of energy in general 306 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:47,399 Speaker 1: this winter, because this could have a drastic impact on GDP. 307 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:53,920 Speaker 1: If you forced to stop production of energy spending companies, 308 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 1: you will have a direct impact on GDP. The backdrop 309 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:01,880 Speaker 1: appear as well over the weekends. Electoral tumult in Canada, 310 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:06,160 Speaker 1: certainly the election in Sweden and a coming election of 311 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 1: some form in Italy as well give us the political 312 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:14,440 Speaker 1: backdrop is it folds into two thousand and twenty three 313 00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:19,840 Speaker 1: and in Europe in recession, well, Italy is important obviously 314 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:25,160 Speaker 1: because all the polls are saying that uh, the frater 315 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 1: Italia is probably going to to win in coalition with 316 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 1: with Lega and for the Italian and there are questions 317 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 1: obviously as to their approach to the commitments of Italy 318 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 1: towards towards Europe. To be fair, Georgia Malone is the 319 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 1: leader of Franti Italia has mellowed a loss honor and 320 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 1: European rhetorics to the market is probably you know, are 321 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 1: ready to to give some some leeway to a new 322 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:58,240 Speaker 1: government in Italy in September. But mordinally, um, if you 323 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,199 Speaker 1: look beyond the elections per se, what we've had so 324 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 1: far is a willingness by government's across Europe to accommodate 325 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:09,679 Speaker 1: the shock from a rising energy prices um with rising 326 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:13,440 Speaker 1: interest rates. It's going to be increasingly promatic for these 327 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 1: governments to maintain this kind of physical policy, and obviously 328 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:22,520 Speaker 1: this could lead to some political trouble down the road. 329 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:25,200 Speaker 1: So we are in sort of a tipping point for now. 330 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:28,720 Speaker 1: Governments in journal has been able to mitigate a lot 331 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:32,199 Speaker 1: of the rowing impact of the rising gas prices. That 332 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 1: may become more complicated as we get into days of 333 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 1: twenties three. Sorry, I want to double down on this 334 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 1: a little bit because we are here in London as 335 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,920 Speaker 1: this sort of see change happens on multiple prongs. Whether 336 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:46,879 Speaker 1: it's the loss of the Queen who has reigned for 337 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 1: seventy years, or whether it's the loss of negative yields, 338 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,199 Speaker 1: which had been the base case for for more than 339 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:55,200 Speaker 1: a decade, whether it's this energy crisis. And the point 340 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:57,879 Speaker 1: that you just made is incredibly important that governments have 341 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 1: not realized that the more the e c B hikes rates, 342 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 1: the more unable they will be to plug the pain 343 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:05,760 Speaker 1: for a lot of the residents. What are you looking 344 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 1: at in terms of translating into GDP growth in the 345 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:12,720 Speaker 1: euroregion as a response to exactly that dynamic that something 346 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:16,719 Speaker 1: has to give here, Yes, I mean basically what's happening 347 00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:20,560 Speaker 1: is that's we are mitigating the current shock. I mean 348 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 1: you can see that everywhere in Europe, including now in 349 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:25,879 Speaker 1: the UK, which was hesitant actually as to whether they 350 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 1: would mitigate the shock. They are they are going to 351 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:32,680 Speaker 1: cap energy prices, so the depth of the recession which 352 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 1: is looming right now is probably going to end up 353 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 1: shallower than one we could have fear just a few 354 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 1: months ago. But at the same time, what we're doing 355 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 1: is that we are obviously increasing public deficits, increasing public debt. 356 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 1: So at some point, and we don't know exactly when, 357 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:52,200 Speaker 1: we're probably in three or in twenty twenty four at 358 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 1: at the latest, there will need to be some efforts 359 00:20:55,600 --> 00:21:00,679 Speaker 1: on on physical policy. This will probably have the dampening 360 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,600 Speaker 1: impact on domestic demands. So in a way, we are 361 00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:08,679 Speaker 1: uh just changing the timing of the pain, and it 362 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,040 Speaker 1: makes sense. I mean, we need to deal with the 363 00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:14,080 Speaker 1: current energy crisis right now, but this will come at 364 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 1: a price, and the price is likely to be some 365 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:21,080 Speaker 1: measure of austerity in twenty twenty three or again at 366 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 1: the latest in there were reports over the weekend deal 367 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:31,119 Speaker 1: of manufacturers in Germany industrial companies closing down their plants 368 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 1: at different times or early curtailing some of the activity 369 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:37,120 Speaker 1: in response to the energy concerns. The energy cost, how 370 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:40,320 Speaker 1: much is that going to really affect the restoring the 371 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 1: desire to try to avoid the interest rate hit and 372 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 1: the currency hit that a lot of nations have been 373 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:50,440 Speaker 1: feeling now. I mean, it's it's it's it's a it's 374 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 1: a big issue for for Germany because the industrial specialization 375 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 1: of Germany make them very sensitive to the price of energy. 376 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 1: Beyond the fact that they've made themselves reliant on Russian gas, 377 00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 1: the very fabric of German industry is quite energy energy intensive. 378 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: So there are questions actually as to how this model 379 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:18,400 Speaker 1: could continue of maintaining on German territory those energy engency 380 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 1: of engency of companies. Um, it's not the first time 381 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:25,679 Speaker 1: that we have questions as to the German industrial model, 382 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 1: their reliance on exports. This question is becoming even more 383 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:34,439 Speaker 1: crucial today. So what's what's helping Germany obviously is that 384 00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:38,480 Speaker 1: they have massive policy space. They don't have much of 385 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:41,920 Speaker 1: the hupper pacted public debt. They can actually take time 386 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:45,879 Speaker 1: to you know, uh rejig the way their economy is 387 00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:49,240 Speaker 1: specialized at the moment. But yeah, there are questions specifically 388 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:53,680 Speaker 1: to Germany at the moment to borrow for me and Brammer, 389 00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:57,760 Speaker 1: what is the power of Brussels now, the force of 390 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:01,639 Speaker 1: Brussels right now or is it every nation for itself 391 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 1: actually full full standing. I would say that the level 392 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 1: of silarity that has been achieved in Europe in the 393 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 1: face of this crisis is quite high, mainly have, for instance, 394 00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:17,320 Speaker 1: this principle of European solidarity on gas. It was not 395 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:21,280 Speaker 1: obvious and it has been actually a confirmed. The French 396 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 1: president said publicly in a TV address that from the 397 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:30,879 Speaker 1: winter would actually help Germany with the gas supply this winter. 398 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 1: So actually there's quite a bit of saadity. One of 399 00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:38,439 Speaker 1: the issues we have, however, is that there's an issue 400 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,880 Speaker 1: in terms of of leadership. Mario Dragi is nonger going 401 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,040 Speaker 1: to be Prime Minister of Italy. He was playing a 402 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:47,200 Speaker 1: big role in shaking things up if you want. At 403 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 1: the European level, the Chancellor of Germany UM is under 404 00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 1: massive domestic pressure, probably doesn't have that much time and 405 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:59,120 Speaker 1: energy to devote to European matters. And obviously I'm Mayor 406 00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,159 Speaker 1: nack Home is not in the same leading position in 407 00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:05,879 Speaker 1: which she was before the planet's redaction. So there's a 408 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,359 Speaker 1: louit of of of of of a hesitancy if you want, 409 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:13,160 Speaker 1: in terms of leadership, bosh at least fourth time being 410 00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:17,760 Speaker 1: solidarity is continuing. UM. It's there's not a lot of 411 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,480 Speaker 1: science actually that it's it's every country for itself. We 412 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,720 Speaker 1: have a few issues with some Eastern countries Hungary as 413 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 1: as usual, but by a large the system holds of access. 414 00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:32,360 Speaker 1: Investment Manager show got to catch alp me said. This 415 00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 1: is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us 416 00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:40,000 Speaker 1: live weekdays from seven to ten AMI Eastern. I'm Bloomberg 417 00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:43,919 Speaker 1: Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day from six to 418 00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:48,720 Speaker 1: nine am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 419 00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:53,879 Speaker 1: and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on 420 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 1: Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on 421 00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:01,920 Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom keen in this is Bloomer