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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named invest betting podcast.

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Speaker 2: Or radio show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association

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Speaker 2: and the number.

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Speaker 3: One show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 4: Okay, cliball, what's up the generate Nation?

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network podcast. This is the National

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Speaker 2: League Baseball Betting Preview. I'm stucky in. Joining me today

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Speaker 2: is Colin Wilson and Sean Zarillo. Colin, I gotta start

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Speaker 2: with you. I gonna ask you, how much money have

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Speaker 2: you invested since we did the AL podcast into ti

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Speaker 2: Oscar Hernandez.

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Speaker 1: I have taken funds that I was going to spend

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Speaker 1: on ti Oscar Hernandez to win every single futures category

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Speaker 1: and redistributed that into some top shot into some names

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Speaker 1: I don't even know because I don't follow the NBA.

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Speaker 1: So now I've got Bam out of bio taking money

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Speaker 1: out of my ti Oscar Hernandez fund that I had

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Speaker 1: set up.

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Speaker 2: So real love good stuff on the American League Betting

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Speaker 2: Preview podcast. Got great feedback on It was nice to

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Speaker 2: talk some baseball again. Excited to talk National League. This

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Speaker 2: is the league that I grew up loving and watching

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Speaker 2: our teams learn it. So are you ready to make

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Speaker 2: a case and show some preseason love for your Mets.

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Speaker 3: You guys don't even know the depths which I am

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Speaker 3: willing to go right now to defend my team, to

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Speaker 3: defend the love that I have for my team in

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Speaker 3: this preseason. For the first time I've ever been willing

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Speaker 3: to put preseason money down on the Mets.

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Speaker 2: DNL is really I'm excited to talk about it because

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Speaker 2: you have the NL East and I think even though

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Speaker 2: I'm a Phillies fan, it is a as far as

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Speaker 2: the division is concerned, it's a conversation about the Braves

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Speaker 2: versus the Mets, and then you can and we'll talk

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Speaker 2: about the Phillies and Nats and Marlins to it's a

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Speaker 2: really intriguing division. Then No Central, like what's going on there,

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Speaker 2: We'll get to that, and then it's the Dodgers and Padres.

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Speaker 2: So so we'll go through all the divisions. We'll give

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Speaker 2: our favorite bets thoughts on the teams, just like we

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Speaker 2: did in the American League podcast. If you miss that,

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Speaker 2: make sure you check that out. And just like that episode,

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Speaker 2: we'll have Colin wood Church from Baseball Perspectives, who now

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Speaker 2: is on our staff as senior Baseball editor. Really excited

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Speaker 2: to have him this year. He'll give some of his

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Speaker 2: favorite bets later in the show, but let's start with

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Speaker 2: the National League East, where I'm wearing my Philly sweatshirt.

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Speaker 2: My beloved Phillies, who It's really hard for me to

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Speaker 2: say this, but like and just believe that they have

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Speaker 2: the longest playoff drought in the National League. Believe it

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Speaker 2: or not so, but when you start here, the two

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Speaker 2: face everts to win the division. Uh, it's gonna be

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Speaker 2: between the Braves and the Mets. We know about the

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Speaker 2: Braves lineup. I was I am still shocked they had

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Speaker 2: as much success as they did last year with all

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Speaker 2: their pitching problems. I mean, the easiest bet I've ever made,

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Speaker 2: My biggest bet of the year was Kyle throwing Kyle

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Speaker 2: right out there against the Dodgers lineup. I think the

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Speaker 2: Dodgers just scored another ten runs. They won't have to

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Speaker 2: do that this year, presumably assuming that their staff stays healthy.

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Speaker 2: You get Soroka coming back from surgery. They added Charlie Morton.

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Speaker 2: I still have questions about the pen, but the team

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Speaker 2: is loaded. Mets. It's the Steve Conch. They're going to

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Speaker 2: spend more Lin Door they bring in, they bring in

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Speaker 2: May in the bullpen. They're now they have a now

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Speaker 2: healthy staff at Carrasco. I do want to ask you

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Speaker 2: a couple of questions from prodding questions about the Mets row,

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Speaker 2: but I'll let you just give your lay of the land.

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Speaker 2: You know the Nats, look, do you have bounce back

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Speaker 2: year for their pitchers who had that big run? And

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Speaker 2: I think we're kind of worn down for their top three.

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Speaker 2: I don't I have some questions about their lineup Ky

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Speaker 2: they had of Colleg Schwarber and Josh Bell and their

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Speaker 2: bullpen as well Phillies from their bullpen, get anybody out

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Speaker 2: historically bad last year. Then you have the Marlins. It's

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Speaker 2: an interesting team with some interesting arms. Zarella, I'll start

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Speaker 2: with you give me the lay of the land in

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Speaker 2: the NL East and what intrigues you there, and friend

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Speaker 2: and I need all your thoughts on the Mets.

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Speaker 3: So the conversation with the Mets has to start with

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Speaker 3: the money. This team is absolutely flushed with cash now

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Speaker 3: and I don't think people realize the degree to which

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Speaker 3: they have a financial advantage over every other team in

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Speaker 3: this sport, not only this year, but going forward. Steve

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Speaker 3: Cohen is comic book character rich. I'm talking richer than

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Speaker 3: Bruce Wayne. Bruce Wayne's worth ten billion dollars.

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Speaker 1: People need dramatic examples to shake them out of empathy,

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Speaker 1: and I can't do that as Bruce Wayne. I'm flesh

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Speaker 1: and blood. I can be ignored, I can be destroyed.

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Speaker 5: But it's a symbol.

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Speaker 1: It's a symbol that can be incorruptible, it can be everlasting.

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Speaker 3: I'm talking richer than Bobby Axelrod, who's also worth about

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Speaker 3: nine to ten billion dollars.

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Speaker 2: By the way, Bobby Axelrod, if you watch the show Billions,

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Speaker 2: that's that's basically what it's about.

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Speaker 5: But you know, when I'm sitting across the table from them,

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Speaker 5: all I can see is they're snapping fucking mouths, and

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Speaker 5: instead of wanting to feed them, I just want to

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Speaker 5: punch their teeth on it.

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Speaker 3: We're talking Logan roy territory, and that's that's succession. That

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Speaker 3: is a direct parody of Rupert Murdoch level rich.

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Speaker 2: What the bloody hell, I'm Rivert Murdoch, the billionaire talented.

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Speaker 3: So the difference in wealth between Steve Cohen and the

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Speaker 3: next richest owners in baseball, which is the Rogers Group

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Speaker 3: in Toronto. That gap, which is about six billion dollars,

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Speaker 3: surpasses the total net worth of twenty seven of the

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Speaker 3: thirty teams in baseball. In other words, Steve Cohen is

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Speaker 3: twice as rich as ninety five percent of the other

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Speaker 3: owners of baseball. Now, the best analogy that I can

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Speaker 3: come up with is when Shaik Montsor bought Manchester City

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Speaker 3: in two thousand and eight. If you'll allow me a

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Speaker 3: little bit of crossport comparison here, Manchester City he was

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Speaker 3: on a forty year title drought when he took over

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Speaker 3: the team. The Mets are on a thirty five year

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Speaker 3: title drought. He's now the richest owner in soccer and

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Speaker 3: has been for quite some time. But he's the richest

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Speaker 3: owner in the English Premier League by eight billion dollars,

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Speaker 3: which is pretty comparable to the advantage that the Mets

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Speaker 3: have over every other team. They're on their way to

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Speaker 3: their fifth title in the past decade. Now that's not

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Speaker 3: only on field investment, that's off field investments. Stadium awareness

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Speaker 3: of the organization itself being an improvement. And we saw

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Speaker 3: the reaction that players around the league had to Cohen's

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Speaker 3: first press conference willingness to come to New York and

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Speaker 3: be with the Mets the first time in a while.

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Speaker 3: There's a feeling of change here in New York City

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Speaker 3: with regards to which team has the control over potential

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Speaker 3: luxurious and marquise free agents in the future. Obviously, do

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Speaker 3: not think the Mets are done spending. If they're willing

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Speaker 3: to go out and acquire players like Chris Bryant or

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Speaker 3: Hanneo Suarez, potentially move JD. Davis around the diamond, you know,

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Speaker 3: make him more of a platoon against lefties. Whatever they

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Speaker 3: need to do. This team is willing to add. I

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Speaker 3: don't think if they have, you know, any sort of

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Speaker 3: desire to sign Francisco lind Or, that they're not going

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Speaker 3: to get that done. It's more a matter of do

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Speaker 3: they want to lock him up long term. This team

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Speaker 3: has the money to make all of the financial moves

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Speaker 3: that they want to make. It's just about making the

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Speaker 3: right baseball decisions now. I said on this podcast last

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Speaker 3: year that if and when Steve Cohen took over the team,

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Speaker 3: his first move would be to fire Brody van Wagen

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Speaker 3: on day one. It's exactly what he did. The man

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Speaker 3: had so many more liabilities than assets that he added

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Speaker 3: to the roster. They're just back to making smart, sound

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Speaker 3: baseball decisions now. Adding to the team and frankly, the

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Speaker 3: prospects that they have in place who have come up

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Speaker 3: at the same time that they're also adding to the

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Speaker 3: team just puts this in position to, you know, make

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Speaker 3: the Mets an immediate contender and certainly put them in

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Speaker 3: position to compete with the Braves in the n least

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Speaker 3: right away. So I have the Mets winning their division

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Speaker 3: forty nine percent of the time this year, and as

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Speaker 3: we talked about with the Astros last week, I am

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Speaker 3: the conservative person in the projection market. Fangrafts they're at

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Speaker 3: fifty four percent and Pakoda's all the way up at

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Speaker 3: seventy percent because they're a little bit down on the Braves.

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Speaker 3: Pakoda they admitted to having a bit of a difficulty

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Speaker 3: with projecting the Braves. It might have something to do

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Speaker 3: with their home ballpark. They've been low on the Braves

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Speaker 3: the past couple of years. They have them down at

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Speaker 3: every least seventy there.

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Speaker 2: At because it's seventy percent for the Mets.

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Speaker 3: They're at seventy percent for the Mets. In the analyst

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Speaker 3: and I'm I'm at forty nine percent. So even if

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Speaker 3: you take my projection and you're just working off of that,

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Speaker 3: there's value on this team down about plus one twenty

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Speaker 3: five at a five percent edge, you can still get

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Speaker 3: them at plus one seventy at bet MGM. So that's

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Speaker 3: that's an absurd number. I think that's absolutely worth playing,

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Speaker 3: just in the same way that the Astros plus one

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Speaker 3: sixty is worth hitting. It's probably the best number on

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Speaker 3: a team that is likely to win their division.

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Speaker 2: I believe Ino.

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Speaker 3: Saras, who's you know, high on the Astros and Mets

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Speaker 3: as well, just because the quality of stuff that these

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Speaker 3: two teams have in their rotations. So when you look

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Speaker 3: at the Mets from top to bottom, the only concern

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Speaker 3: I really have is defense. They've been a poor defensive

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Speaker 3: club for a few years. They don't really have the

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Speaker 3: players on the roster to fix those holes immediately. They

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Speaker 3: still have to stick Dominic Smith and left field, who

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Speaker 3: should outshine his defensive weaknesses with his bat, had an

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Speaker 3: ops overrowe thousand last year. It looks like a a

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Speaker 3: potential guy to continue to break out this year. The

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Speaker 3: other concerns that I have in the division are whether

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Speaker 3: the Nationals can get healthy. They kind of paid the

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Speaker 3: World Series tax last year. Strasbourg, suzer Corbin injuries, effectiveness

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Speaker 3: just completely waned. So taking time off and getting half

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Speaker 3: a year off, not having a pitch through that year,

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Speaker 3: getting injured, sitting out, Yeah, maybe the Nats can reload

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Speaker 3: a bit little bit. I can make an argument that

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Speaker 3: Juan Soto is the best player in baseball. Move over

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Speaker 3: Mike Trout because I think he's coming and I'm not

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Speaker 3: too concerned about the Phillies. Real mood is starting the

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Speaker 3: year with the broken thumb that's probably going to sap

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Speaker 3: his power a little bit going to the season. The

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Speaker 3: rotation and pitching in general behind Noah and Willer on

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Speaker 3: the Phillies doesn't concern me in terms of an opponent

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Speaker 3: in that division. I think they're both pen and still

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Speaker 3: a complete mess. The Marlins, I certainly expect to take

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Speaker 3: a step up. That team was surge at the end

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Speaker 3: of the year, made it into the second round of

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Speaker 3: the playoffs, brought up a bunch of prospects added to

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Speaker 3: their team, guys like Starling Marte.

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Speaker 2: Adam duval So.

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Speaker 3: The Marlins were initially a team that their win total

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Speaker 3: came out at sixty seven and a half. I would

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Speaker 3: have recommended betting that over. It's kind of settled right

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Speaker 3: into where I have it projected. But man, really relative

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Speaker 3: to the rest of the division, that the value here

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Speaker 3: is all on the Mets. For me, I have their

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Speaker 3: win projected at ninety four and a half, the rest

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Speaker 3: of the markets at ninety three, ninety one and a half,

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Speaker 3: and ninety four point two, So you can get them

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Speaker 3: at over eighty nine and a half wins, you can

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Speaker 3: get them over ninety and a half wins. I like

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Speaker 3: both of those numbers. Like I said, I like their

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Speaker 3: divisional odds too. Down know about plus one twenty five.

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Speaker 2: The Marlins, I mean, can their young arms hold up?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I love that the six dough Pablo Lopez

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Speaker 2: is probably my favorite pitcher that I love to lose

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Speaker 2: money on. In al can Tear at the top of

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Speaker 2: that rotation are really exciting to build on. The Phillies,

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Speaker 2: by the way, I'm not gonna sit here and recommend

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Speaker 2: them to win the division. Look bringing in Archie, Bradley

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Speaker 2: and Alvarado, at least they've been like major league relievers before,

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Speaker 2: which anything is an upgrade over what they did last year,

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Speaker 2: but the back end of that rotation iss it consisted

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Speaker 2: to say to less than the bullpen. I will say,

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Speaker 2: once that lineup is healthy, they will murder lefties. My

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Speaker 2: questions for you about the Mets were because of their

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Speaker 2: signings and how they're able to platoon. You're no longer

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Speaker 2: worried about them against lefties, which is a concern that

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Speaker 2: I had before any of the offseason moves. I was

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Speaker 2: going to ask you about the defense, and do you

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Speaker 2: now think that the bullpen is a strength?

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Speaker 3: So Jade Davis murders lefties. Having lind Or and Jonathan

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Speaker 3: vr in there switch hitters, I think certainly opens things up,

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Speaker 3: allows them.

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Speaker 2: To platoon a little bit more.

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Speaker 3: Bullpen has obvious concerns, you know, just because Edwin Diez

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Speaker 3: is so enigmatic. Dylan Matansais didn't look one hundred percent

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Speaker 3: healthy last year. But I really like the Tremor May signing.

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Speaker 3: I thought that was very underrated. He's been a really

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Speaker 3: effective relievers for a few years. So there's so much

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Speaker 3: deeper than they were headed into last year. They're not

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Speaker 3: filling out the bottom end of the rotation with guys

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Speaker 3: like Michael Waka who think actually could be much better

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Speaker 3: this year than he looked.

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Speaker 2: Last year with the Rays.

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Speaker 3: There's just a good strikeout to walk numbers that indicate

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Speaker 3: he can take a step back forward. But they really

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Speaker 3: just did such a better job from a front office

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Speaker 3: perspective of filling this team out with depth.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the scariest part about the Mets is

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Speaker 2: if things don't fall apart as they have for the

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Speaker 2: Mets in recent paths, sometimes due to injuries or whatever,

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Speaker 2: maybe and they get into the playoffs and their staff

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Speaker 2: is healthy, that's where they're going to be the scariest. Colin,

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Speaker 2: let me bring you in here. Are you going to

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Speaker 2: share in Cirillo's enthusiasm for the Mets? Here? What do

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Speaker 2: you got?

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Speaker 1: Well, I have a bet that includes the Mets, but

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Speaker 1: it's not exactly on the division. So I think what

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Speaker 1: I'll do is I'll start from the bottom of the NLS.

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Speaker 2: Got to Oscar Hernandez more harbyis than the Mets plus

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Speaker 2: four million for the year.

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Speaker 1: If he was trained to the Mets, the Mets would

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Speaker 1: win the World Series. So I'll start from the bottom

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Speaker 1: of the division to work my way up. I really

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Speaker 1: do like the Marlins because you have six thos Sanchez,

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Speaker 1: Pablo Lopez, Sandy Alcintera, at last He or Hernandez. These

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Speaker 1: are great starters. The problem is we don't know if

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Speaker 1: they can stay healthy, and we don't know how deep

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Speaker 1: that they can go into games. Are any of them

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Speaker 1: going to have over one hundred and seventy innings pitch

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Speaker 1: this season? And so you know you have a bunch

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Speaker 1: of relief pitchers who have a K nine rate below nine,

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Speaker 1: So I mean every game is going to get blown. So,

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Speaker 1: like I said on the Al podcast, I have an

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Speaker 1: everyday wake up call to bet Toronto Blue Jays and

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Speaker 1: Orioles games on the over because of the pitching. Same

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Speaker 1: thing with the Marlins. They are a first five bet

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Speaker 1: for me on a daily basis. Just same thing when

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Speaker 1: Brady Singer is pitching for the Royals. If there's a

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Speaker 1: first five value bet there, I'm going to hit it.

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Speaker 1: So for the Marlins, you know they added Starling Marte.

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Speaker 1: His his plus one point seven value in war is

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Speaker 1: negated by his negative three point one in defensive war,

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Speaker 1: So you know that that's kind of a problem. But

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Speaker 1: the Marlins, I are working their way up and I

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Speaker 1: like them, and that's more than I can say for

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Speaker 1: the Phillies. I actually do not like Phillies. Shout out

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Speaker 1: to Archie Bradley, who grew up like a mile from

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Speaker 1: my house and hangs out at the batting cage my

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Speaker 1: son works out. His hard hit percentage has dropped every

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Speaker 1: season since twenty fifteen. So I think it's a good

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Speaker 1: addition for the Phills. And there's going to be a

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Speaker 1: lot of close ball games. And I know this just

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Speaker 1: from playing Fantasy Baseball. Shitty teams have saves two with

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Speaker 1: their closers. I mean there could be thirty to forty

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Speaker 1: saves from a team that only wins sixty games in

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Speaker 1: the season. So Archie Bradley, I think out there DKs

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Speaker 1: around twenty to twenty five to one for most saves.

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Speaker 1: That's not enough for me to buy, but I am

306
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Speaker 1: still looking for good closers on shitty teams to win

307
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Speaker 1: that prop. I think the Dave Dombrowski needs to be

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Speaker 1: talked about as the new president of operations. And he's

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Speaker 1: responsible for all that expos talent that they had when

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Speaker 1: I was growing up as a kid. He's responsible for

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Speaker 1: the Tigers World Series runs fifteen years ago, and when

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Speaker 1: I think about that more and more This is not

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Speaker 1: a roster he put together, This is not the payroll

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Speaker 1: that he put together. I don't know what he wants

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Speaker 1: to do. And he took the GM, reassigned him, and

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Speaker 1: pulled somebody off of the analytics side and made them

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Speaker 1: the GM of the Phillies. In my opinion, you might

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Speaker 1: see a lot of jockeying out of this Phillies team

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Speaker 1: around the deadline because there might be a bunch of

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Speaker 1: guys that Dombrowski doesn't want on this team, and there

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Speaker 1: may be targets out there that he wants long term

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Speaker 1: for the future. This is not the Philly season that

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Speaker 1: you know. Internally makes me want to play an under

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Speaker 1: But statistically, like if you look at Zarillo's column and

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Speaker 1: warpathag whatever, the number is correct right mathematically. But it's

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Speaker 1: not their season. And so why not if you're rebuilding,

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Speaker 1: sell some guys off at the trade deadline if you're

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Speaker 1: not going to win the division because you do have

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Speaker 1: three pretty good teams. I don't think the Nats are

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Speaker 1: really a contender here. Patrick Corbin, his exit velocity against

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Speaker 1: him ticked up, the velocity of his pitches went down,

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Speaker 1: his ex FIP ticked down. In twenty twenty. I can't

333
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Speaker 1: remember the last time I had a bet on John

334
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Speaker 1: Lester unless it was on the over. So that's all

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Speaker 1: we have to look forward to than that. So and

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Speaker 1: to top off what you said about Sodo, I don't

337
00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:52,240
Speaker 1: think we've seen the best out of Wan Soto yet.

338
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Speaker 1: His exit velocity increased in his second season in a row.

339
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Speaker 1: His k rate dipped from twenty to fourteen percent. He

340
00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:02,360
Speaker 1: was on pace to steal twenty bags last season. That's

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00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:05,680
Speaker 1: not even his game right full game schedule. You know,

342
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Speaker 1: he might get twenty bags, could be a forty twenty guy.

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Speaker 1: Canseiko like their zips has them as about sixteen steals. So,

344
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Speaker 1: I mean, the Nats are good with their core pieces there,

345
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Speaker 1: but I don't see them contending with that pitching staff.

346
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Speaker 1: And that gets me to the Braves and you know,

347
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Speaker 1: it seems like they're trying to get some old retread

348
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Speaker 1: tires right. Jake clam would have been a perfect fit

349
00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:27,040
Speaker 1: if there would have been a re universal DH Jason

350
00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,840
Speaker 1: Kipness was brought in, Pablo Sondival has bought it. Maybe

351
00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:32,440
Speaker 1: they can get one of these guys. They can, you know,

352
00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:35,840
Speaker 1: kind of get something for nothing here. The Braves have

353
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Speaker 1: a projected offensive war greater than the Mets. So that's

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Speaker 1: something to note. Even with all the additions that the

355
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Speaker 1: Mets have with Lindor, and even as great as I

356
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Speaker 1: think Pete Alonso is, you know, the Braves slab an

357
00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:49,000
Speaker 1: offensive war that's projected greater than the Mets. Charlie Morton,

358
00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:51,120
Speaker 1: if he returns to the twenty nineteen War of six

359
00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:55,200
Speaker 1: point one or even his Houston War of three, then

360
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Speaker 1: you know he's gonna have a really good season. I

361
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Speaker 1: mean last season may have been a little bit of

362
00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:02,120
Speaker 1: a Marad Babbitt flew up to you know, three point

363
00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:04,680
Speaker 1: fifty five. His x FIP was much lower than his era.

364
00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:07,359
Speaker 1: The Braves added Drew Smiley. I mean, this is a

365
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Speaker 1: former razorback pitcher. I've had tabs on for years. You

366
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Speaker 1: know it stops in Seattle, Detroit, it doesn't matter. I've

367
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Speaker 1: been wanting Smiley to succeed everywhere he goes. He had

368
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Speaker 1: the highest K nine rate in seven games in twenty

369
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Speaker 1: twenty that he's had in seasons. So if he stays healthy,

370
00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:25,639
Speaker 1: that's a plus for the Braves. So in Freddie Freeman,

371
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Speaker 1: I think it's worth mentioning for MVP bets. I know

372
00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:30,399
Speaker 1: that he could win the MVP, He's done it before.

373
00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:33,159
Speaker 1: But if you looked at his battle with COVID was

374
00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:36,040
Speaker 1: like life threatening last year, and his first start to

375
00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:39,320
Speaker 1: the season, his weighted runs created was one hundred and

376
00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:42,120
Speaker 1: thirty six, and then after like his final thirty two games,

377
00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:44,720
Speaker 1: it was two hundred and twelve. So he finished really

378
00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,240
Speaker 1: strong last season. If he puts a full season of

379
00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:49,240
Speaker 1: stats together, he could win the MVP again. So I

380
00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:51,639
Speaker 1: think it's definitely worth a look there. The bet to

381
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Speaker 1: make besides the Mets Division, which I completely agree with,

382
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Speaker 1: all the way down to plus one twenty. And let's

383
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Speaker 1: talk about that. This is being recorded at the end

384
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Speaker 1: of February. You may be listening to this at the

385
00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,080
Speaker 1: end of March because you're just now getting around to

386
00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:07,120
Speaker 1: baseball and college basketball is over. There's just a dead

387
00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:09,760
Speaker 1: period of sports. I think that Mets number is gone,

388
00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,080
Speaker 1: that one seventy one fifty one forty. I think by

389
00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:14,920
Speaker 1: the time all of everybody's got their eyes on baseball,

390
00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:17,800
Speaker 1: the Mets, by god, may be minus one forty to

391
00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,639
Speaker 1: win the division. So I think plus one twenty's really way.

392
00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:22,000
Speaker 1: I have a differ number. I think plus one twenty

393
00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,000
Speaker 1: is the place to stop buying. If he's got it

394
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Speaker 1: at forty nine percent, then definitely minus one ten is

395
00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,359
Speaker 1: a no go territory. I think the one thing I'm

396
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Speaker 1: going to end on is a prop, and a prop

397
00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:35,560
Speaker 1: is the hitting prop Lindor. I was thinking about Lindor

398
00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:38,840
Speaker 1: and park factors going from Progressive to City. Does it

399
00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:41,639
Speaker 1: affect his home runs a little bit? Generally City field

400
00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:43,679
Speaker 1: is lower than Progressive in home runs, But that's not

401
00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:45,359
Speaker 1: really what I'm looking at. Really, if you look at

402
00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:48,000
Speaker 1: his hits and his plate appearance is he's supposed to

403
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:51,040
Speaker 1: have seven hundred play appearances per ZIPS, which is more

404
00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:54,359
Speaker 1: than anybody else in Major League Baseball. Raphael Divers for

405
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:57,280
Speaker 1: the Red Sox expected to have twenty five less plate appearances.

406
00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:00,320
Speaker 1: And then he's going he's projected to finish top five

407
00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:02,520
Speaker 1: in hits, but he's listened to twenty to one a

408
00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:05,359
Speaker 1: DK for most hits, while Devers, who's projected to have

409
00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:07,480
Speaker 1: the most hits by ZIPS, is twenty two to one

410
00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:10,640
Speaker 1: for hits, so you know, most hits on the season.

411
00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:13,760
Speaker 1: Divers at twenty two to one, Lindor at twenty to one.

412
00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,200
Speaker 1: This is who zips projects to have the most played

413
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:18,440
Speaker 1: appearances and the most hits on the season. I think

414
00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:19,320
Speaker 1: those are worth betting.

415
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Speaker 2: The Braves upside were they're ceiling, and if they do

416
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 2: reach their ceiling and the Mets reach their ceiling, I

417
00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:31,960
Speaker 2: think it's a fairly close race to the end. Is

418
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:35,560
Speaker 2: their offense doesn't drop much, and then you have Soroka

419
00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:39,200
Speaker 2: who comes back and reaches his prior form and he's

420
00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,280
Speaker 2: healthy and it looks like he is, and Charlie Morton

421
00:19:41,640 --> 00:19:43,720
Speaker 2: kind of bounces back. You have to kind of take

422
00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:45,560
Speaker 2: some of the numbers you saw last year with a

423
00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:48,520
Speaker 2: grin of salt, given the sample size and how unique

424
00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:50,879
Speaker 2: of the year it was, and then throw Smiley as

425
00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:53,479
Speaker 2: your fifth starter. Sure, fine, Then all of a sudden,

426
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:57,680
Speaker 2: if their pitching works out of their offense performs at

427
00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:00,399
Speaker 2: or close to the level did last year, Braves are

428
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 2: going to be really good. I agree on the Mets. Yeah,

429
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:06,000
Speaker 2: Mets plus one twenty plus one thirty. I agree, and

430
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Speaker 2: I can stamp out a consensus, even though, excuse my

431
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:12,879
Speaker 2: French fuck the Mets go Phillies. But this is a

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Speaker 2: podcast but making money for us, so I could stamp

433
00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:18,200
Speaker 2: my approval on that any rebuttal to anything, Colin said Zarella.

434
00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:20,680
Speaker 3: No, I mean I should add I loted the Mets

435
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:23,320
Speaker 3: for being the richest organization in baseball. The Braves are third,

436
00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:25,640
Speaker 3: So it's not like the Braves can't spend money. It's

437
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,320
Speaker 3: not like the Braves haven't been spending money. Obviously, Acuno

438
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 3: one of the best players in the game. Ian Anderson

439
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 3: was I mean pop off the screen last year right

440
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:36,720
Speaker 3: in the playoffs with how dominant that guy was. So

441
00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:40,199
Speaker 3: if these teams both performed to their peak, it's going

442
00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:42,680
Speaker 3: to be a very close and fun divisional race down

443
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,639
Speaker 3: the stretch. Paying for the Mets over eighty nine and

444
00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 3: a half wins, you're almost paying for their floor with

445
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,080
Speaker 3: about ten wins of upside there. You know, if this

446
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:54,560
Speaker 3: team finishes with fewer than eighty six wins, it's going

447
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:56,000
Speaker 3: to be a massive disappointment.

448
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:58,480
Speaker 2: I think the difference actually might be the Mets bullpen.

449
00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 2: Shocking to said that because of the history of the

450
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 2: Mets bullpen, but I think that's where they actually could

451
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 2: end up winning the division. But I completely agree with you.

452
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,639
Speaker 2: All right, that'll wrap up the NL least. We were

453
00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 2: talking a lot about spending money. Rich schooners well, let's

454
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 2: move on to the NL Central, where there's not been

455
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:21,440
Speaker 2: that much money spending in the off season. I called

456
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 2: the Anas like the dormant division. Potentially someone could win

457
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 2: this division within a record under five hundred. I don't know.

458
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 2: I mean, so basically, what was I reading early today?

459
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 2: The talent that left the divisi as I I think

460
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,560
Speaker 2: two weeks ago. The talent that left the division in

461
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:42,479
Speaker 2: the off season from a war perspective was about forty five.

462
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:47,119
Speaker 2: The talent that joined six, Uh, do you know what

463
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,160
Speaker 2: from last year's war? Do you know what last Aeronauto's

464
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:53,639
Speaker 2: war was like six? So basically just Aeronauto that was it.

465
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,640
Speaker 2: And then they lost forty four in war. So Aeronauta

466
00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 2: was the big signing for the big trade, I should say,

467
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:00,919
Speaker 2: when they just fleeced the Rockies will get to the

468
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 2: dumpster fire that is the Rockies. So the Cardinals bringing Aronado,

469
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 2: does that make them the favorite? Just that alone, because

470
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:11,960
Speaker 2: no one else did anything. A lot of stats suggest

471
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 2: to have some pitching regression coming their way, which I

472
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 2: would agree with. Look, the Brewers, you would expect to

473
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:22,639
Speaker 2: bounce back from Yelich. They have the pitching, especially when

474
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 2: you're talking top heavy pitching, at the top of their rotation,

475
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 2: top of their bullpen. The Cubs look, they signed Jock Peterson.

476
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:32,199
Speaker 2: You hope that their hitters all bounce back. I mean

477
00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 2: they all had bad years last year, right, and they

478
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:37,919
Speaker 2: all have some pedigree where if you get a bounce back,

479
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 2: their offense is going to perform a lot better. After

480
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:42,919
Speaker 2: Kyle Hendris, can they get out though? I don't know?

481
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 2: Their bullpen is a mess. I mean, Craig Kimber, what

482
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 2: are you going to get it from him? And the

483
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,239
Speaker 2: Reds are the Reds and they lost some talent and

484
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,880
Speaker 2: they're not really spending. But I looked at this vision,

485
00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 2: I say, this is such a crapshoot. I think it's

486
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:58,359
Speaker 2: you know, this is the division. I want to take

487
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 2: a long shot on right, like I going to mean

488
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:01,920
Speaker 2: a lung shot. I mean I would to take either

489
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 2: the Rowers or the Cubs at plus three fifty plus

490
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:07,320
Speaker 2: four hundred, depending on where you can find them. I

491
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:10,120
Speaker 2: wanted to take the Cubs, but I can't trust their pen.

492
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 2: And then I was like, they don't have Lester. It's

493
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 2: a good thing. But they brought in Zac Davies, who

494
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 2: I hate. Now he found some things last year. He

495
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:17,400
Speaker 2: doesn't know how to pitch, but I just hate him.

496
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 2: So I'm looking at the Brewers here. Look, this is

497
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:23,640
Speaker 2: this is going to be an ugly division. We didn't

498
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 2: get the Pirates yet, but I'll let you guys talk

499
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,359
Speaker 2: about the Pirates and why not I might take a

500
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 2: fly on the Brewers zerrilla thoughts on the dormant NL Central.

501
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:33,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is the worst division in baseball. I

502
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:37,399
Speaker 3: think on a average, every projection system has the average

503
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:41,200
Speaker 3: wins for this division under seventy nine, so very poor.

504
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 3: Four teams made the NL playoffs last year because the

505
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 3: Central divisions were so bad and everybody kind of stayed

506
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 3: around five hundred. The n AL Central teams went one

507
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 3: to eight, and they were shut out six times in

508
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 3: nine games. I was of the opinion that they shouldn't

509
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,119
Speaker 3: get more than one postseason bid this year as punishment.

510
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 2: I don't think you'll worry about that.

511
00:24:01,200 --> 00:24:03,200
Speaker 3: So the Reds I'm not really interested in. We were

512
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:06,160
Speaker 3: all over the Reds last year. They decided to spend

513
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,920
Speaker 3: during a year which MLB teams ended up losing more

514
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 3: money than ever before. They also have the porous ownership

515
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,159
Speaker 3: group in baseball. I believe they're worth four hundred million total,

516
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 3: so they're not going to be spending money. If anything,

517
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:19,920
Speaker 3: they're going to be looking to get rid of assets.

518
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 3: The Cubs, they have an upside projection of eighty five

519
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:25,240
Speaker 3: point three Pakoda, which I don't think is out of

520
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 3: a line given the talent on their roster. But again,

521
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,119
Speaker 3: past the theo Epstein era rumors that they might trade

522
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,920
Speaker 3: Bias and Bryant, if you want to be an optimist

523
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:37,160
Speaker 3: on the Cubs, they were probably the most vocal group

524
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 3: of players about the lack of in game video preparation

525
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 3: last year. Baiez said that that was completely what was

526
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 3: driving his struggles, you know. Brian kind of said similar things.

527
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 3: Wilson Contreras. So I would be slightly optimistic about the

528
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 3: Cubs with the talent that they currently have on that roster,

529
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 3: but I don't know if that talent is going to

530
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 3: be there in August. So again, not really a team

531
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 3: I'm interested in playing honor against. The Cardinals were a

532
00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:04,160
Speaker 3: team that I took a World Series flyer on after

533
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 3: the Aeronauto trade. Now that was the time in the

534
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 3: offseason where Marcelo Zuna was still unsigned.

535
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 2: It looked like he could come back.

536
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 3: To the Cardinals, there were still other free agents out

537
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:14,120
Speaker 3: there that looked like they could have added. They didn't

538
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 3: really make any improvements after that. They resigned Molina Adam

539
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 3: Wayne Wright, but nothing that really moves the needle. If anything,

540
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 3: I'm looking to take an under on the Cardinals. I'm

541
00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:26,639
Speaker 3: actually the highest projection of the market by like four wins.

542
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 3: I'm at eighty five point six, which is pretty close

543
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 3: to their win total. But if you look at fangrafts,

544
00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 3: they're at seventy seven, but CODA is at eighty one

545
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 3: point three, another projection at eighty eighty point seven, so

546
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,440
Speaker 3: everybody's between around like eighty one wins.

547
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 2: A lot of that is assuming pitching regression I assume

548
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 2: from some of their arms, which have been pretty lucky

549
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:45,879
Speaker 2: over the past couple of years.

550
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 3: It's really tough to factor in their team defense too.

551
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 3: They've been one of the best defensive teams in baseball

552
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 3: over the past few years, so I think the projection

553
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 3: systems kind of undercuts them now. Obviously, Aeronato is one

554
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:00,439
Speaker 3: of the best defensive players in amml BE, but they

555
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,919
Speaker 3: also lost Colton Long, who's the best defensive second basement

556
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:05,919
Speaker 3: in baseball, so that's really a wash. You're getting a

557
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 3: slight improvement at our Aeronautu's back, but the team doesn't

558
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:10,679
Speaker 3: really have anywhere to go but down in terms of

559
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 3: defensive value. But if anything, I'm looking to take an

560
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 3: under on them. I don't think there's a ton of

561
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 3: upside and I would be really surprised that they got

562
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 3: to ninety wins even in a bad division. That said,

563
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 3: the Pirates, if you look at their PITHAG last year,

564
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 3: played at a fifty nine to win pace, So all

565
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 3: they have to do is be as good as they

566
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 3: were last year or as bad as they were last year,

567
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 3: and you should be going over that total. They also

568
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 3: went two to five in extra inning games. They were

569
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 3: in extras a bunch with these teams in their division,

570
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 3: a lot of close games. They have a pretty decent bullpen.

571
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,360
Speaker 3: They have a few good bullpen orners that can keep

572
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 3: them relevant. If you're not aware of Cabrian Hayes, he

573
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:47,879
Speaker 3: is the next Matt Chapman. Fully convinced that Duke rakes

574
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 3: And has probably the best defensive reputation coming up for

575
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 3: any prospect that I can remember in the past few years,

576
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:59,639
Speaker 3: aside from Chapman, and he immediately fulfilled all of those expectations.

577
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 3: There is like decent talent on this Pirates team. But

578
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:05,199
Speaker 3: I think just because the rest of the division is

579
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 3: so bad, I wouldn't be surprised if the Pirates won

580
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 3: sixty games, you know, finished with a fewer than one

581
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:13,159
Speaker 3: hundred losses. I don't think they'll have the worst record.

582
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 3: I think Colorado or Texas are more likely to so. Again,

583
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 3: if you look at projections, I met sixty two other projections,

584
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 3: sixty two, sixty five, sixty one. Everybody has this team

585
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 3: going over. You can get over fifty seven and a

586
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 3: half wins at the Westgate. I think I'd play that.

587
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 3: I think I'd even played up to fifty eight and

588
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:31,399
Speaker 3: a half. I'm kind of trying to see where the

589
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:33,399
Speaker 3: market goes for now, just because I don't expect a

590
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 3: lot of positivity on this Pirates team. But I just

591
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 3: think because of the state of the division, taking the

592
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 3: worst team and targeting them to finish better than expected

593
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:42,120
Speaker 3: isn't a bad move.

594
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:46,119
Speaker 2: Could sixty two games potentially win this division? On a

595
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 2: more serious note, I brought them up earlier. I assume

596
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:50,919
Speaker 2: you're leaving the best for last, and you're with me

597
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 2: on the Brewers.

598
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,199
Speaker 3: I'm with you on the Brewers, my man. So you know,

599
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 3: this has been a theme that we've kind of covered

600
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:58,400
Speaker 3: with the Mets and the ash Heros. But I am

601
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,479
Speaker 3: below man on the projection mart for a team that

602
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 3: is showing divisional value. Pakota has the Brewers all the

603
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 3: way up at fifty four point one percent to win

604
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:11,159
Speaker 3: the NL West. Wow, Fangrafs is at thirty three percent.

605
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 3: I'm at thirty one point one percent. Even still, at

606
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 3: those projections, you can get a ten percent edge. You

607
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 3: can bet them at plus three eighty twenty one percent implied.

608
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 3: I bet that down to plus two eighty at a

609
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 3: five percent edge. I think the Brewers are absolutely the

610
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 3: team to target here. They really just need Locane to

611
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,560
Speaker 3: come back off of his COVID layoff and do a

612
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:33,399
Speaker 3: little bit better than he was before the year off.

613
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:36,440
Speaker 3: They need Yelich to bounce back, and they kessin Hira

614
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 3: to perform somewhere between what he did in the short

615
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 3: stint last year in his rookie debut two years ago,

616
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 3: and that's really it. They have the bullpen arms, they

617
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 3: have the rotation. You know, they can certainly piece together

618
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 3: eighty five wins in a bad division, and I think

619
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:55,239
Speaker 3: Craig Council's shown his ability to get those innings out

620
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 3: of that staff and be one of the more creative

621
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 3: managers in the league. So yeah, in a division where

622
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,479
Speaker 3: I expect everybody to be kind of close, even at

623
00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 3: the top, that that fifty four percent projection from Coda

624
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 3: is really sticking out at me and I am close

625
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 3: to twenty percent lower and still see an edge.

626
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 2: I don't see how you don't bet that.

627
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 5: Help me out.

628
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 4: Yeah.

629
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 2: The only thing I would worry about with the Brewers,

630
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 2: and I have bet it and I already completely agree

631
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 2: with you, is you see sometimes like closers are so volable,

632
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 2: right Like It's like there's this a dominant closer who

633
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 2: no one can hit, and then all of a sudden,

634
00:29:57,520 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 2: you know, a couple of years later, it's wit who

635
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 2: who was that guy? He was supposed to be He

636
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 2: was elite and then no longer elite. The couple guys

637
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 2: could maintain I mean, you know, the obvious Mario Verreire

638
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 2: is the exception of the rule. But a lot of

639
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 2: times you see these guys who were electric and all

640
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 2: of a sudden they just lose a little bit of us.

641
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 2: The league has, you know, kind of caught on to

642
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 2: them a little bit, so Ken, you know, hater maintain

643
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 2: his elite level. He might not even maybe the best

644
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 2: reliever on his team, to be honest, but they are

645
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 2: very reliant on the back end of that bullpen, and

646
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 2: then they're not going to win games a lot of

647
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 2: ten six, ten to seven. That would be my only question. Then, yeah,

648
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 2: you have to assume that Yellow bounces back because you

649
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 2: need his bat. I mentioned old Long before as well.

650
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 3: That's a team that's been sticking Travis Shaw at second base,

651
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 3: Mike Mustock is at second base in the past couple

652
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 3: of years. You know, Adding a guy like Wong defensively

653
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 3: in that infield really changes the dynamic and they're going

654
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 3: to clean up a lot more mistakes than they've been making.

655
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:55,960
Speaker 2: That's fair. Colin, thoughts on such a do you share

656
00:30:56,000 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 2: in our view the brew crew?

657
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 1: Will? You know we talked to about the defensive metrics

658
00:31:01,640 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 1: of Colton Long, you know, departing from Saint Louis. That

659
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 1: is to the advantage of the Brewers. I mean that

660
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 1: that is a big pickup for them, especially defensively, and

661
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 1: I think if you were one of the ones that

662
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 1: you know had the Nolan Arnardo if you had the

663
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 1: division odds on the cards at plus two hundred or better,

664
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 1: which you know I did, I think it's time to

665
00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 1: turn around and hit the Brewers at any number that's

666
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 1: you know, say, above plus one fifty at least. I

667
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 1: think those are the only two teams that can win

668
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 1: this division. And I think, you know, from the notes

669
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 1: that I've got in front of me, I think I

670
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 1: can leave it with a couple of you know, outstanding

671
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 1: props that we can have here. Now, the Pirates. The Pirates,

672
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 1: you look at that number fifty seven and a half

673
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 1: at the Westgate and you think, how does this not

674
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 1: go over? And then you look at the Dodgers you say, well,

675
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 1: how that number at one oh four at circa is

676
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 1: a little bit too high? Right, So every day you

677
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 1: wake up and hope for a Pirates win and a

678
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 1: Dodgers loss if you're happening to get on those sides.

679
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think Pirates and the Over is the

680
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 1: player for me. Cabrian Hayes is you know, properly listed

681
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 1: at DraftKings at plus five fifty for Rookie of the

682
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 1: Year because he is the most electric rookie probably in

683
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 1: the group. The other one that I will touch on

684
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,479
Speaker 1: is Dylan Carlson, and he is not as electric as

685
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 1: Hayes or nothing. Just jumps off the page with one

686
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 1: hundred and nineteen at bats. By the way, check that

687
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 1: out with Rookie of the Year, you're allowed up to

688
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty at bats before you're not considered

689
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 1: a rookie. Both Hayes and Carlson got close to the

690
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 1: one thirty but didn't exceed it. So they do have

691
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 1: game experience at the major league level which could play

692
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 1: into here. But Dylan Carlson for the Cards ten to

693
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 1: one odds for Rookie of the Year and he's projected

694
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 1: to bat fifth, right after goldschmid Aronando. I'm not saying

695
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 1: he's got the tools to win Rookie of the Year,

696
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 1: but you cannot have a more perfect slot from an

697
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 1: offensive perspective, then Dylan Carlson is going to get there

698
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 1: in Saint Louis. But yeah, I like the Pirates over

699
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 1: and when I go back to the saves, prop most saves,

700
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 1: Like I said, shitty teams get saves, and if the

701
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 1: Pirates have sixty wins, it's going to be a lot

702
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 1: of one run ball games, and that points me to

703
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 1: I think Richard Rodriguez. I can't find him on a

704
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 1: betting board I'm looking. But if we see in the

705
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 1: next month a full list of saves come out and

706
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 1: I see Richard Rodery, Richard Rodriguez out there, I think

707
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 1: he's the guy for the poo. It's going to get

708
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 1: most of the same. What a fun prop that that

709
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 1: would be. I don't like the Cubs whatsoever, and there's

710
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 1: nothing about the Cubs that I like. They're, you know,

711
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 1: third lowest war of any pitching staff in the NL.

712
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 1: Hendrix Jake Ariett is going to be a fade every

713
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:19,080
Speaker 1: time that he's up. Alec Mills has a fastball. I

714
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 1: think the tops out at eighty eight miles an hour,

715
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 1: throw them out. If there's one other thing I'll touch on,

716
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 1: you definitely don't want to have the Reds. We loved

717
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 1: him last year. Eugenio Suarez was one of those reasons,

718
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 1: having you know, almost fifty home runs I think forty

719
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 1: nine home runs in twenty nineteen. Is he a homer

720
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 1: candidate now? I mean, I know that there's a narrative

721
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 1: going around that he kind of dropped off a little bit.

722
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 1: He did take a dip in wOBA, but he had

723
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 1: a greater barrel and hard hit percentage rate than he

724
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 1: had in twenty nineteen, and his max exit velocity was

725
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 1: one hundred and eleven point four. It's just shy of

726
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 1: one hundred and twelve that he had the year before.

727
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 1: There's really been no drop off in contact with the

728
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 1: ball or how hard he's hitting the ball. So thirty

729
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 1: to one at the Westgate for most home runs, I

730
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 1: don't see why it's any different than last year when

731
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:03,320
Speaker 1: he's still putting up the same metrics that are important

732
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 1: for home run hitting.

733
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 2: The Cubs rotation at the top of the rotation, I mean,

734
00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 2: with what Mills, Hendricks and Davies, who throws harder them

735
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:16,360
Speaker 2: or US three if we were the top of the rotation. Zirell,

736
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 2: one of the things I want to ask you about

737
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 2: because you do bring up a great point that is

738
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 2: making me reconsider how I think about some of the

739
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:25,319
Speaker 2: wind totals in this division. And it's you brought it

740
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 2: up with the Cubs and that they could move pieces.

741
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 2: That also could be the case with the Reds. There

742
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 2: have been some rumors that Castillo and Gray will be

743
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 2: moved and maybe it's at some point during the season

744
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 2: or whatever it may be, And there could be other

745
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:42,880
Speaker 2: pieces that the Reds sell off, So that would I think,

746
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 2: bolster the argument for Pirates over right. The division gets

747
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:53,919
Speaker 2: weaker overall for a Brewer's over wind total, and it's

748
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:56,799
Speaker 2: the only thing that would make me hesitant about the

749
00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 2: Cardinals wind total under going on on a team that

750
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 2: I don't that won't sell while the rest of the

751
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 2: vision is it so they could just be picking up

752
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 2: cheap win stocks there.

753
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 3: That's exactly why I think there's value in the Pirates

754
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 3: over just the two teams directly above them may not

755
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:15,919
Speaker 3: be incentivized to be competitive at all. Honestly, I don't

756
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:18,399
Speaker 3: see how the Reds are going to afford to move

757
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:20,840
Speaker 3: forward with this team, just because we talked about the

758
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 3: n not having a DH. It's just a bad roster fit.

759
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:26,399
Speaker 3: Like they've been a poor defensive team for a few

760
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 3: years and they don't have a DH spot to get

761
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 3: guys like Castianos and Mustakas out of the field and

762
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 3: get better defenders in there. So it's a pretty ugly roster.

763
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 3: Anthony di Sclafani was shuttled to San Francisco too, like

764
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:44,319
Speaker 3: they're losing talent from the depth of their rotation that

765
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:47,439
Speaker 3: they seem to previously have. So I'm kind of low

766
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 3: on this Reds team in general. Relative to war Wheeler

767
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 3: last year. It's a total one to eighties. So the

768
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 3: Cubs absolutely could be sellers, probably will be. It's possible

769
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 3: now that we're getting outside of the bubble of these

770
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 3: teams playing Central versus Central, East versus East, since the

771
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 3: Cardinals are going to have to go up against the

772
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:06,360
Speaker 3: division that we'll talk about in a second, like the

773
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:08,400
Speaker 3: NL West, where I think there's four teams who are

774
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 3: gonna be vying to be seventy seven wins are better.

775
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 3: These Central teams might get their ass kicked for the

776
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:16,839
Speaker 3: entire year. So yeah, maybe we see the Cardinals win

777
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 3: the division but finished with eighty four or eighty five wins.

778
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 3: I think that's something that they've done recently. They actually

779
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:24,320
Speaker 3: gott into the playoffs and won the Central with fewer

780
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 3: than eighty eight wins. So I think you nailed all

781
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 3: three rd there.

782
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Bretts, by the way, Wade Miley and Jeff Hoffman,

783
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:36,200
Speaker 2: that's their four and five projected starters. Ooh, it's a

784
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:36,840
Speaker 2: bad division.

785
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 3: Nobody has money to spend, and they've decided that most

786
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:41,600
Speaker 3: of them are going to be sellers.

787
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 2: As well, and a central beautiful and the beautiful thing

788
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 2: about like, oh this division is so boring. It's like, Okay,

789
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:50,080
Speaker 2: well we could still find some value preseason, and once

790
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 2: the season starts, we're betting on this every day. So

791
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:54,799
Speaker 2: I can't wait for that. The daily grind of the

792
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 2: MLB season, there's nothing quite like it. I'm in the

793
00:36:57,160 --> 00:37:01,360
Speaker 2: middle of the college basketball grind with cod We just

794
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:04,799
Speaker 2: said to a football grind with COVID. It's like, I'm

795
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 2: like losing my mind on how much energy it's taking

796
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 2: it on. You guys are the same way with your sports.

797
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:12,600
Speaker 2: And then I'm gonna be like, oh great, now we

798
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:14,719
Speaker 2: go right into the baseball grind. I'm gonna need a

799
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:18,319
Speaker 2: long vacation in I don't know when twenty fifty.

800
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:20,879
Speaker 3: The baseball used more pitchers last year in a short

801
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:22,840
Speaker 3: season than they used in all of twenty.

802
00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 2: Nineteen, which was a full season.

803
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 3: So it just shows you how much stuff was messed

804
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:27,919
Speaker 3: up last year.

805
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:31,319
Speaker 2: That's that's crazy town, all right. Let's move on to

806
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 2: the NL West Dodgers are minus three hundred to win

807
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 2: the division. Padres plus one ninety five, the Giants fifty

808
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 2: to one, the Rockies sixty to one, the Diamondbacks sixty

809
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:48,160
Speaker 2: to one one the time backs of the Rockies is

810
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 2: the same for anyway. This is a two team race,

811
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,399
Speaker 2: and it's probably just a one team race, but it's

812
00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 2: a very top heavy division. We know how good the

813
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 2: Dodgers are, and they just they added trivor Bauer. Now

814
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:04,239
Speaker 2: we know how good the Pajos on what they've done

815
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:06,759
Speaker 2: to their roster. I'll let you guys talk to some

816
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:09,839
Speaker 2: of that. I actually think the Giants if I had

817
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 2: a guest right now, and I'm gonna ask you actually,

818
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 2: I'm gonna ask you guys this right now before we go.

819
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:16,120
Speaker 3: If you had a guest right now, the team that

820
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:20,279
Speaker 3: you will end up betting the most on throughout the

821
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 3: entire MLB regular season, what team would have besiroll. You

822
00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:25,719
Speaker 3: tease the Giants and it's hard to get them out

823
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 3: of my head. It's gonna be the Giants or the Marlins.

824
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:30,879
Speaker 3: I'd say those are two of the teams that I'm

825
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 3: probably highest on that are in good divisions, who are

826
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 3: going to have the most opportunities to find value against

827
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 3: teams that are expected to finish better than five hundred.

828
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 1: Probably the Rangers. I mean, the splits were legit when

829
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 1: that roof was closed and the roof was open. I mean,

830
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 1: I'm talking you guys know if you follow me on

831
00:38:48,239 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 1: action app. But a lot of it is over under totals.

832
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:56,520
Speaker 1: That's picture dependent, park dependent, and umpire dependent. So there's

833
00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 1: probably gonna be a lot of Row Rangers unders going on.

834
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:01,360
Speaker 1: Some cubs over when the wind is blowing, but no

835
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:04,360
Speaker 1: Rangers in that park. There was some really clear splits

836
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 1: when the roof was open. When the roof was closed.

837
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:08,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, first fives too with the Royals maybe so maybe

838
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:11,200
Speaker 2: some with the Marlins also, but yeah, mine would be

839
00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 2: the Giants. Like I'm a I actually loved Sclafani. I

840
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:18,280
Speaker 2: always bet on him when he was with the Reds.

841
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 2: Always found him undervalue. I'm a Kevin Galazan truther. I

842
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 2: don't know there's I think that they're gonna have value

843
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 2: a lot throughout the year. Colin, bless your soul. If

844
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:28,319
Speaker 2: you end up betting on the Rangers more than any

845
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 2: other team this year, well.

846
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 1: It's all my local TV, right, I mean I live.

847
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 1: If you live in the state of Oklahoma, you're blacked

848
00:39:34,120 --> 00:39:37,919
Speaker 1: out of Astros, Rangers, Royals, Cardinals. But the only team

849
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 1: that's really on TV is the Rangers. So that's thank you, MLB.

850
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 1: Blackout BLUs your heart.

851
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:45,240
Speaker 2: I let you guys talk to the Dodgers and Padres.

852
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:47,720
Speaker 2: I kind of take I'm gonna betting on the Giants

853
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:49,839
Speaker 2: a lot. They're not winning this division. I am not

854
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:53,759
Speaker 2: considering them for a you know, division or a long

855
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:58,239
Speaker 2: chot World Series. Did Diamondbacks. Everything went wrong last year,

856
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:01,760
Speaker 2: like everything, And this is a team that doesn't really spend,

857
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:05,320
Speaker 2: but all their bats broke. Their pitching was a mess

858
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 2: outside of my guy Zach Gallen, and it's a team

859
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:12,800
Speaker 2: that doesn't spend. Yet Madison Bumgarner, who got lit every

860
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,239
Speaker 2: time he touched the mound last year, is due to

861
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 2: make what eighty million more of the next four years.

862
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:22,440
Speaker 2: Mess They've They've gotten some they've signed some people to

863
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 2: try to help the bullpen, but the pitching is is

864
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 2: not great that you would expect. Maybe there's some positive

865
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:34,400
Speaker 2: aggression with the lineup after last year, similar to the Cubs,

866
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 2: but I mean, well, Bumgarner's numbers, I was looking at

867
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 2: them earlier, and then you have the Rockies. I think

868
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 2: that they're going to end up with the fewest amount

869
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:45,200
Speaker 2: of wins. I think is really you already said that

870
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 2: in all of baseball. It has to do with their roster.

871
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 2: It has to do with just I mean just hope

872
00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 2: it's but they're also look at the division they're in.

873
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a long year. You know,

874
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:57,359
Speaker 2: if you look at the Rockies and the Pirates, they're

875
00:40:57,400 --> 00:41:01,480
Speaker 2: probably pretty similar teams from a town perspective, but the

876
00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:04,439
Speaker 2: Pirates are a much easier division. I think that that's

877
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 2: why the Rockies go ended up with the fewest amount

878
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:09,399
Speaker 2: of wins. So this is the Dodgers' division most likely,

879
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:12,080
Speaker 2: barring injuries, are a really slow start. Remember we saw

880
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:15,800
Speaker 2: a couple of years ago the Rockies took the Dodgers

881
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:17,480
Speaker 2: down to didn't they have to go to a playoff

882
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 2: or like the last the last weekend to decide the division?

883
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:24,239
Speaker 2: So can the Padres do that? Or there is their

884
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:25,840
Speaker 2: value in the Padres rilla? What do you see in

885
00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:26,280
Speaker 2: this division?

886
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:28,720
Speaker 3: So we talked about the secret human oars last week,

887
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 3: and I've been trying to speculate where those human wors

888
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 3: might end up which teams it's most advantageous for. I

889
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 3: think there's a chance that two of them are in la.

890
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:39,680
Speaker 3: I think there's one at Dodgers Stadium, and I think

891
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:42,239
Speaker 3: there's one in Anaheim. Why are you thinking this?

892
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:43,320
Speaker 2: Have you been reading?

893
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:47,319
Speaker 3: How do you beat the Dodgers other than out homering them?

894
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 3: If the Dodgers want to make themselves better, the only

895
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:53,520
Speaker 3: way other than obviously, I mean, so they played at

896
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:55,880
Speaker 3: one hundred and sixteen win pace last year. They're adding

897
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:59,760
Speaker 3: David Price, they're adding Trevor Bauer, still top five defense,

898
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 3: all defense pitching. The only way this team loses is

899
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:05,560
Speaker 3: when you out homer them, particularly in the playoffs.

900
00:42:05,719 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 2: And you think that the teams teams, teams are deciding

901
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:10,759
Speaker 2: this on their own without like the MLB isn't coming

902
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:12,879
Speaker 2: to them, right, Like, it's just a like, So why

903
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 2: would the Red Sox aside to do it? And that

904
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 2: last year? Then yeah, I have no idea.

905
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 3: And it almost seemed like it didn't work because they

906
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:23,280
Speaker 3: were still allowing runs at a record pace with that bullpen.

907
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:25,200
Speaker 3: So yeah, I don't I don't really know, you know,

908
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 3: I'd initially suspected that MLB was the one making the

909
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 3: recommendations because they want all parks to play similarly, even

910
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:36,640
Speaker 3: though they really can't do that with various sized outfield walls.

911
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:38,520
Speaker 3: But I was equally confused by they would put it

912
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:41,240
Speaker 3: in Cityfield, which was already one of the biggest pitching

913
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 3: leaning parks in baseball. So it really doesn't seem to

914
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 3: have any logic. If anything, it seems like teams are

915
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 3: able to make the recommendation and get it installed. And

916
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 3: we talked about the Angels with their flyball leaning staff.

917
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 3: You know, I'm now worried about my unders, like are

918
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 3: they going to have a seven percent fly ball per

919
00:42:57,160 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 3: home you know, home run per fly ball rate and

920
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 3: one ninety games because who knows. But the more I've

921
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 3: thought about it, like, I don't think it helps any

922
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:05,919
Speaker 3: team more than it would help the Dodgers, just because

923
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:08,360
Speaker 3: you're not beating this team straight up. You're only going

924
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:10,279
Speaker 3: to beat them if you hit three run homers. So

925
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:13,280
Speaker 3: the fact that they've added more talent, it's the highest

926
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 3: win projection I've ever come up with. It's the highest

927
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:17,879
Speaker 3: win projection I believe Pakoda's ever come up with. I'm

928
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:19,840
Speaker 3: at one of four point nine Pakoda's at one of

929
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:22,960
Speaker 3: four point three. Fangrass and aving Porter are both at

930
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 3: ninety eight ninety nine, So those two systems see the

931
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 3: race between the Dodgers and the Padres as more on

932
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 3: level terms. Me and Pokoda see about an eight or

933
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:34,480
Speaker 3: nine win difference between the two teams, and I think

934
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 3: that's more accurate. I just see, you know, the Padres

935
00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 3: have room to grow into a legitimate World Series contender,

936
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 3: and there's obviously a ton of talent on this roster

937
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:46,840
Speaker 3: and we haven't seen the complete upside of it. But

938
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:50,879
Speaker 3: they are not a defensive force like the Dodgers are

939
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:53,439
Speaker 3: the Dodgers have. The Dodgers saved like over one hundred

940
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:55,319
Speaker 3: defensive runs last year in a shortened season. I mean,

941
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:58,520
Speaker 3: this team is absurd, not only and I'm not talking

942
00:43:58,560 --> 00:44:01,320
Speaker 3: about the players on the field, talking about the analytics staff.

943
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 3: You want to know why the Rockies are going to

944
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:06,240
Speaker 3: be awful this year. It's not just because they're cutting

945
00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 3: costs on the field. They don't have a single analytics

946
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 3: staff member left from what they had in prior years.

947
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:17,120
Speaker 3: All nine are gone. They have the smallest analytics staff

948
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:19,760
Speaker 3: in all of baseball. They don't have people to direct

949
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:22,279
Speaker 3: the manager and the players, where to put people, how

950
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:25,840
Speaker 3: to optimize that talent. It's such a different type of

951
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 3: analysis to have. But I know for a fact, if

952
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 3: you go back and correlate the number of front office

953
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:36,399
Speaker 3: analysts in analytics compared to a team's win percentage, it'd

954
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 3: probably be a seventy or eighty percent correlation. So that

955
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:42,160
Speaker 3: you know the Padres, Yes, I'm high on the Giants,

956
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 3: Yes I'm high on I think that the Diamondbacks I'm

957
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 3: high on too. If you look at my projection compared

958
00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:49,480
Speaker 3: to the listed win totals for all these teams, it

959
00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:50,920
Speaker 3: might recommend leaning.

960
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:51,719
Speaker 2: Over on all four of them.

961
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:54,880
Speaker 3: Obviously, you can't bet four teams in the same division

962
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:56,839
Speaker 3: all go over. You have to pick and choose because

963
00:44:56,880 --> 00:45:00,480
Speaker 3: those results are correlated. So I'm already on the over

964
00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:02,680
Speaker 3: one oh one and a half. I think it's actionable

965
00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:04,960
Speaker 3: only up to that number, though, And I might even

966
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:07,080
Speaker 3: consider if this number floats up to one oh five

967
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:09,839
Speaker 3: one oh six before opening day, playing the middle back

968
00:45:09,880 --> 00:45:12,319
Speaker 3: the other way, just because it's I believe the past

969
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:14,359
Speaker 3: five teams with a listed win total over one hundred

970
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 3: of all gone under eight of the past ten something

971
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:19,720
Speaker 3: like that. It's a pretty strong trend of teams failing

972
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 3: to hit that number because it's a pretty ridiculous pace

973
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 3: to try to keep. But I think this Dodters team

974
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:26,759
Speaker 3: is an exception, and I'm willing to pair them with

975
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 3: either of the Padres or the Giants. The Potreys are

976
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:31,880
Speaker 3: pretty much between ninety eight to ninety five wins in

977
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 3: the market. You can bet them over ninety three and

978
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 3: a half or ninety four and a half. The Giants

979
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 3: to be throughout Davenport, everybody has them at about seventy

980
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 3: seven wins. You can bet them over seventy four and

981
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 3: a half. So take one of those two teams. Take

982
00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:45,560
Speaker 3: if you don't want to play the Dodters, take both

983
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 3: of those two teams. Bet the over the talent in

984
00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:50,719
Speaker 3: this division. I the overall talent across the market is

985
00:45:50,760 --> 00:45:53,080
Speaker 3: eighty two point three wins. In the NL East it's

986
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:56,360
Speaker 3: eighty two point four wins. The four best teams in

987
00:45:56,400 --> 00:46:00,400
Speaker 3: this division are pretty comparable on average the four teams

988
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:03,239
Speaker 3: in the NLES. Just obviously there's there's more of a

989
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 3: middle ground in the NLEST with the competitiveness, but I

990
00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:08,680
Speaker 3: think these teams are just gonna absolutely destroy the Rockies

991
00:46:09,080 --> 00:46:11,000
Speaker 3: they're gonna beat up on the bad teams in the

992
00:46:11,000 --> 00:46:13,920
Speaker 3: Manal Central, and I wouldn't be surprised if four teams

993
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:15,719
Speaker 3: managed to exceed their win total. I just don't think

994
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:18,040
Speaker 3: you could bet on that. So choose between the Padres

995
00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:21,479
Speaker 3: with the Giants. But I really like all all four

996
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:22,960
Speaker 3: of the teams that I mentioned at the top of

997
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:24,200
Speaker 3: the division talent wise.

998
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:27,440
Speaker 2: Well, the interesting thing is if you bet the Dodgers

999
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 2: and the Padres over, if the Padres go over in

1000
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 2: a way, it could help the Dodgers go over. And

1001
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 2: what I mean by that is like if they're pushing

1002
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:41,840
Speaker 2: the Dodgers, like mathematically they're still live for the divisionsion

1003
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 2: or the top seed until the end, so it's kind

1004
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:46,879
Speaker 2: of a hedge. And you also could just easily win

1005
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:49,720
Speaker 2: both as well. But the only concern with the Dodgers

1006
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 2: would be is if the Padres are way way behind

1007
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:57,400
Speaker 2: and then you know at the end, they just they

1008
00:46:57,920 --> 00:46:59,680
Speaker 2: kind of just get into a lull. They don't really

1009
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:02,600
Speaker 2: pushed their pictures as much. Blah blah blah. But the

1010
00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:05,399
Speaker 2: analytics is such a brilliant point. And look, we don't

1011
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:07,640
Speaker 2: need to get into the Kevin cast decision because we're

1012
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:10,360
Speaker 2: all gonna because everyone that'll listen to us will disagree

1013
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:13,319
Speaker 2: with us. But the Dodgers would have I mean, think

1014
00:47:13,320 --> 00:47:16,319
Speaker 2: about how many World Series they almost had, Like the

1015
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:19,120
Speaker 2: narrative around like Clayton Kershaw can't win the World Series,

1016
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 2: can't pitch in the postseason? Like how many times is

1017
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 2: that because they left Clayton kershlin for one inning too long?

1018
00:47:27,120 --> 00:47:30,880
Speaker 2: That's basically why the Dodgers didn't win a World Series.

1019
00:47:31,239 --> 00:47:36,160
Speaker 2: Then ironically enough, they people are you know, yelling about

1020
00:47:36,160 --> 00:47:39,239
Speaker 2: this decision. And but that's that's what the Dodgers did

1021
00:47:39,680 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 2: all this postseason, right, they never left their pictures in

1022
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:46,760
Speaker 2: But eight five, six, seven, eight years ago, the Dodgers

1023
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 2: weren't making the same decisions that they are today.

1024
00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 3: And that's what's so scared about this Dters team like

1025
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:53,800
Speaker 3: Julio Reus and Dustin May are battling for the number

1026
00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:56,920
Speaker 3: five position their rotation. They have so many arms that,

1027
00:47:57,040 --> 00:47:59,520
Speaker 3: like I mentioned with the Rays, they could just say, okay,

1028
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:01,719
Speaker 3: you're getting You're going to turn over this lineup once

1029
00:48:01,719 --> 00:48:03,960
Speaker 3: for the next three innings after the starter comes out,

1030
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 3: and it's gonna be an elite pitcher coming into the game.

1031
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:08,759
Speaker 3: It's almost unfair how many arms they have. Not to mention,

1032
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:11,280
Speaker 3: the Dodgers and Patters both have top ten farm systems

1033
00:48:11,320 --> 00:48:14,279
Speaker 3: in baseball, have prospects that they continue to bring up

1034
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 3: or trade for other pieces. So these teams are the

1035
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:17,560
Speaker 3: top to bottom.

1036
00:48:18,000 --> 00:48:22,879
Speaker 2: Look Dad Reu, who's now like an ace on the staff, Maeta,

1037
00:48:22,960 --> 00:48:24,759
Speaker 2: who's close to an ace on the staff. I mean

1038
00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:27,640
Speaker 2: the arms on this they just were like, we don't

1039
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:29,799
Speaker 2: need we don't need them. And they don't even push

1040
00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:31,759
Speaker 2: any of their starters two hundred innings either. They haven't

1041
00:48:31,760 --> 00:48:33,920
Speaker 2: had a starter go two hundred innings in several years.

1042
00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:37,440
Speaker 2: Like it keeps them well intact for the playoffs. They

1043
00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:40,560
Speaker 2: don't have to push anybody too hard. Yep, Colin your

1044
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:43,520
Speaker 2: thoughts on the NA West.

1045
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:45,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean living in Oklahoma, the Double A and

1046
00:48:45,840 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 1: the Triple A teams for the Dodgers are here within

1047
00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:51,120
Speaker 1: the states. So seeing guys like Dustin May, Mitch White,

1048
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:54,760
Speaker 1: Andrey Jackson, Josiah de Gray, these are the top pitching

1049
00:48:54,840 --> 00:48:58,440
Speaker 1: prospects that are routinely coming through town. And it's just

1050
00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:00,919
Speaker 1: they should not be here, should be at the major

1051
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 1: league level. I know that our little research project was

1052
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:07,160
Speaker 1: go back and look and see teams that were listed

1053
00:49:07,200 --> 00:49:09,880
Speaker 1: in the win total market in triple digits, and see

1054
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:11,799
Speaker 1: come back with you know how many times that they've

1055
00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:15,680
Speaker 1: actually gone over? Well, per sports are Sports Odds Archive,

1056
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 1: there were five teams that had win totals over one hundred,

1057
00:49:18,719 --> 00:49:20,840
Speaker 1: and none of them went over their posted win total,

1058
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 1: so you know, and we can argue about what book

1059
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:25,880
Speaker 1: that was taken from, but I mean, it's it's just

1060
00:49:26,360 --> 00:49:28,920
Speaker 1: and you can add other qualifiers to that, because I

1061
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:31,279
Speaker 1: actually went back and researched like teams that are over

1062
00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 1: ninety five wins and it still comes out to around

1063
00:49:33,719 --> 00:49:37,560
Speaker 1: a eighty five percent under rate for you know, having

1064
00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:41,319
Speaker 1: win totals this high. Blindly you just look at this

1065
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 1: number and you should play an under. I agree with

1066
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 1: Zarrilla though we haven't. Nobody's really thinking about baseball except

1067
00:49:48,719 --> 00:49:50,759
Speaker 1: people like us at this point are people that cover it,

1068
00:49:50,800 --> 00:49:53,120
Speaker 1: you know, every day of the year. And I think

1069
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:55,919
Speaker 1: once the general public gets done with March Madness, Sweet

1070
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:58,239
Speaker 1: sixteen and the lad eight and they start getting into baseball,

1071
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:00,680
Speaker 1: I could see this win total for the Dodgers just

1072
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:02,480
Speaker 1: going up. I see that minus three hundred for the

1073
00:50:02,520 --> 00:50:05,520
Speaker 1: division going up. Now, I think the Padres at some point,

1074
00:50:05,520 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 1: the question is is when am I going to buy?

1075
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 1: So I've already taken the win total over ninety two.

1076
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:12,680
Speaker 1: I think that's good. Up to ninety four and a half.

1077
00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:16,239
Speaker 1: According to war wins above replacement, they have a better

1078
00:50:16,320 --> 00:50:19,800
Speaker 1: pitching staff than the Dodgers. Now that's per fan Grafts.

1079
00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:22,200
Speaker 1: It's not by much. There's still, you know, two of

1080
00:50:22,239 --> 00:50:25,799
Speaker 1: the best three in Major League Baseball. Hey, I'm gonna

1081
00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 1: have to keep myself from betting Danielson Lament to win

1082
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 1: the Cy Young every single year. The thing what the

1083
00:50:31,160 --> 00:50:33,480
Speaker 1: Padres is is, I don't know how many innings they're

1084
00:50:33,520 --> 00:50:36,319
Speaker 1: going to go. Ken Leman stay healthy. Can a lot

1085
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:38,200
Speaker 1: of their guys on the staff stay healthy? And think

1086
00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:40,200
Speaker 1: about Blake Snell. Think about it from the perspective of

1087
00:50:40,239 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 1: the Rays would never allow him to go to the

1088
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:44,400
Speaker 1: seventh inning. He was on a pitch count. He couldn't

1089
00:50:44,400 --> 00:50:47,720
Speaker 1: go deep into games. From what I saw an article

1090
00:50:47,719 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 1: of his post the last two days, I think they're

1091
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:54,160
Speaker 1: actually contemplating having Blake Snell throw into the seventh inning.

1092
00:50:54,200 --> 00:50:56,080
Speaker 1: But they have to work up to it so as

1093
00:50:56,120 --> 00:50:58,600
Speaker 1: to where the Dodgers can basically run a seven to

1094
00:50:58,640 --> 00:51:02,760
Speaker 1: eight man rotation, let Kershaw, you know, let Walker Buehler,

1095
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:05,680
Speaker 1: you know, mississtart every once in a while. I don't

1096
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:07,879
Speaker 1: know if the Padres are deep enough to pull that off.

1097
00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:12,000
Speaker 1: So I think the Padres are hungry and talented. You know,

1098
00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:14,280
Speaker 1: if we see an eight to nine game drop between

1099
00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:17,160
Speaker 1: the Dodgers and the Padres, then ninety four and a

1100
00:51:17,239 --> 00:51:19,360
Speaker 1: half is the stopping point you want to have to

1101
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:21,520
Speaker 1: buy on the Pods. But I definitely like the Pods

1102
00:51:21,560 --> 00:51:23,640
Speaker 1: on the over and I'm going to consider a Dodgers

1103
00:51:23,680 --> 00:51:25,520
Speaker 1: under all the way up until opening Day, not going

1104
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:27,200
Speaker 1: to buy it now, because there's going to be an

1105
00:51:27,200 --> 00:51:30,440
Speaker 1: appetite for this Dodgers team big time. And I think

1106
00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 1: I have to assess at what number do I buy

1107
00:51:33,040 --> 00:51:34,880
Speaker 1: the Padres for the division. I'll lean on Sean. I

1108
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:36,680
Speaker 1: me just throw a number out there, But what are

1109
00:51:36,680 --> 00:51:38,279
Speaker 1: the Dodgers going to get up to minus three p

1110
00:51:38,360 --> 00:51:41,000
Speaker 1: fifty to win this division? These numbers for the Dodgers

1111
00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 1: are insane, They're they're historical.

1112
00:51:43,080 --> 00:51:46,200
Speaker 2: Look for those not familiar the Padres, they do have

1113
00:51:46,200 --> 00:51:48,080
Speaker 2: a very good stuff. I mean they added you, Darvish,

1114
00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 2: I mean you had guys that they signed last year.

1115
00:51:50,200 --> 00:51:53,840
Speaker 2: You have Lamets, so their paddock clevenger. It's a loaded staff,

1116
00:51:53,840 --> 00:51:55,160
Speaker 2: and then if you take some of their arms on

1117
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:57,759
Speaker 2: their bullpen bounce back. Yeah, the staff is great. You know,

1118
00:51:57,800 --> 00:51:59,759
Speaker 2: the lineup has a lot of talent, is real. Do

1119
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:02,400
Speaker 2: you have any thoughts on the number for the Padres

1120
00:52:02,440 --> 00:52:05,239
Speaker 2: to bypoint? Yeah, probably three hundred or better. I have

1121
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:08,080
Speaker 2: them projected at plus two forty. I have the Dodgers

1122
00:52:08,200 --> 00:52:11,200
Speaker 2: at minus two forty. It's a nice little inverse there.

1123
00:52:11,239 --> 00:52:13,160
Speaker 3: I have the which means I have the Giants at

1124
00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:15,800
Speaker 3: point two percent and the Diamondbacks at point one percent.

1125
00:52:16,040 --> 00:52:19,800
Speaker 3: So not completely dead, but you know, pretty much Dodgers

1126
00:52:19,880 --> 00:52:23,719
Speaker 3: or Prodre's binary. It's a little scary, Like I'm I'm

1127
00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:25,640
Speaker 3: the more I think about it, the less inclined I

1128
00:52:25,719 --> 00:52:27,480
Speaker 3: am to bet the padre is over, and the more

1129
00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:29,319
Speaker 3: I clined I am to bet the Giants over, because

1130
00:52:29,320 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 3: I feel like the Giants could get the five hundred

1131
00:52:31,760 --> 00:52:34,160
Speaker 3: easier than the Padres could get to ninety five ninety

1132
00:52:34,200 --> 00:52:36,719
Speaker 3: six wins almost so even going into next year, like

1133
00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:38,960
Speaker 3: I feel like on paper they're gonna be the sexy

1134
00:52:38,960 --> 00:52:41,359
Speaker 3: team again, and I might still be fading them again.

1135
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:44,640
Speaker 3: There's just too much downside with the injuries. And obviously

1136
00:52:44,680 --> 00:52:46,839
Speaker 3: we all think Tatis is a superstar, but the guy

1137
00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:49,680
Speaker 3: hasn't even played technically a full season of a bats yet,

1138
00:52:49,719 --> 00:52:51,280
Speaker 3: even combined with his two seasons.

1139
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:53,719
Speaker 2: But I look back when the Rockies almost won that

1140
00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:58,920
Speaker 2: division against the Dodgers, like they had this unique aspect

1141
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:03,040
Speaker 2: that their offense is they obviously ran really well, they

1142
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:05,279
Speaker 2: were pitching well, but their offense was just red hot.

1143
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:08,880
Speaker 2: And they play a course right like you're going to

1144
00:53:08,960 --> 00:53:11,400
Speaker 2: play in these crazy games, and they have one of

1145
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:12,520
Speaker 2: the biggest home fields.

1146
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:14,440
Speaker 3: Because they also need what I think the Dodgers started

1147
00:53:14,520 --> 00:53:15,959
Speaker 3: like six and eighteen and they.

1148
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:18,120
Speaker 2: Started really low. Yeah, they started really so that's what

1149
00:53:18,120 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 2: the Padres would need here again. But then it's like

1150
00:53:20,840 --> 00:53:23,440
Speaker 2: what advantage they really have, Like the Dodgers are kind

1151
00:53:23,440 --> 00:53:27,439
Speaker 2: of like a better version of them. Their parks aren't dissimilar. Yeah,

1152
00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:29,279
Speaker 2: so I agree with you. I don't think that the

1153
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:31,719
Speaker 2: I think that if you want to bet the Padres

1154
00:53:31,800 --> 00:53:34,799
Speaker 2: this year, the way to do it is try to

1155
00:53:34,880 --> 00:53:38,360
Speaker 2: find the bottom at if you believe at some point

1156
00:53:38,800 --> 00:53:41,560
Speaker 2: during the regular season to win the World Series. The

1157
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:43,719
Speaker 2: problem is that I keep going back to is that

1158
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:48,160
Speaker 2: you're most likely going to be facing like it's a

1159
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:52,520
Speaker 2: fifty to fifty proposition to get into the next round.

1160
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:55,160
Speaker 2: In that wildcard round, I feel bad for the Padres.

1161
00:53:55,160 --> 00:53:57,600
Speaker 2: It's just like put them in the NL Central and

1162
00:53:58,120 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 2: they would win one hundred and five games.

1163
00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:03,040
Speaker 3: You know, we talked about more overs on this podcast

1164
00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:05,960
Speaker 3: and more unders on the American League podcast. Three of

1165
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:10,160
Speaker 3: the four projection systems have the NL not only better

1166
00:54:10,239 --> 00:54:12,799
Speaker 3: than the AL, but close to twenty to thirty one

1167
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:15,239
Speaker 3: is better than the AL. Do you think that the

1168
00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:18,440
Speaker 3: difference in the leagues is that severe? Are you higher

1169
00:54:18,480 --> 00:54:20,680
Speaker 3: on more teams in the NL than you are in

1170
00:54:20,680 --> 00:54:21,480
Speaker 3: the American League.

1171
00:54:21,600 --> 00:54:24,080
Speaker 1: I'm definitely higher on the AL Central than i am

1172
00:54:24,120 --> 00:54:26,400
Speaker 1: the NL Central. I'll tell you that, you know, the

1173
00:54:26,440 --> 00:54:29,920
Speaker 1: Pirates and the Royals, they're not equal. The White Sox

1174
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:32,839
Speaker 1: versus the Reds. There's no correlation to me this year.

1175
00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:36,719
Speaker 1: So from a central standpoint, I like the ALE better overall.

1176
00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:40,320
Speaker 2: Yes, clearly, I think the OTA AL is significantly better.

1177
00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:44,600
Speaker 2: And I'm I'm trying to think of the unders that

1178
00:54:45,160 --> 00:54:48,520
Speaker 2: I'm looking at in the NL. It was the Rockies

1179
00:54:48,960 --> 00:54:52,680
Speaker 2: and then it was trying to figure out in the

1180
00:54:52,760 --> 00:54:55,759
Speaker 2: NL Central, like Who's going to sell them who's not,

1181
00:54:55,800 --> 00:54:58,040
Speaker 2: which is kind of throwing me for a loop, But

1182
00:54:58,080 --> 00:55:00,440
Speaker 2: that's pretty much it. Like, I'm just looking at the

1183
00:55:00,520 --> 00:55:03,000
Speaker 2: Rockies win total unders the one that I'm I'm kind

1184
00:55:03,040 --> 00:55:05,080
Speaker 2: of I know that I'm going to invest in, and

1185
00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:06,840
Speaker 2: that's that's pretty much it.

1186
00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:09,719
Speaker 1: I like the Giants over in this division though, because

1187
00:55:09,719 --> 00:55:11,239
Speaker 1: I know I think I think Sean, I think you

1188
00:55:11,280 --> 00:55:13,720
Speaker 1: have them around seventy eight wins. I think the total

1189
00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:15,759
Speaker 1: is at seventy five and a half. If you look

1190
00:55:15,800 --> 00:55:18,520
Speaker 1: at their lineup, it's the same that they've had over

1191
00:55:18,560 --> 00:55:21,560
Speaker 1: the past ten years offensively and pretty much defensively. In

1192
00:55:21,600 --> 00:55:24,520
Speaker 1: the infield. In New Stremsky, we don't know really what

1193
00:55:24,680 --> 00:55:27,560
Speaker 1: his ceiling is. I think the Giants have a better

1194
00:55:27,600 --> 00:55:29,799
Speaker 1: overall roster and they should be able to be up

1195
00:55:29,840 --> 00:55:31,719
Speaker 1: on the d Backs and the Rockies, which should be

1196
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:33,520
Speaker 1: just if the Padres and the Dodgers are going to

1197
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:35,399
Speaker 1: get those wins over those two teams, the Giants are

1198
00:55:35,400 --> 00:55:37,080
Speaker 1: going to get them too. So I think the Giants

1199
00:55:37,120 --> 00:55:38,759
Speaker 1: are good for their win total over seventy five and

1200
00:55:38,760 --> 00:55:41,600
Speaker 1: a half. For a small small bit of investment, Yeah,

1201
00:55:41,600 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 1: I wish.

1202
00:55:41,960 --> 00:55:44,000
Speaker 2: I could bet an upside on the Giants. Like that's

1203
00:55:44,000 --> 00:55:46,080
Speaker 2: why I think I'm probably just gonna be betting them

1204
00:55:46,239 --> 00:55:49,239
Speaker 2: a lot during the season, because I mean, they camp.

1205
00:55:49,239 --> 00:55:50,719
Speaker 2: I don't think they could win the division. I guess

1206
00:55:50,719 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 2: they could. They do, but there's going to be a

1207
00:55:53,040 --> 00:55:55,800
Speaker 2: lot of injuries and crazy shit that happens. But like,

1208
00:55:55,800 --> 00:55:57,480
Speaker 2: I wish it was an upset bet because you're going

1209
00:55:57,520 --> 00:56:00,160
Speaker 2: to be playing two jugger knocks a lot, the Padres

1210
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:04,200
Speaker 2: and Dodgers, and if the Diamondbacks have some positive aggression

1211
00:56:04,239 --> 00:56:07,000
Speaker 2: with their bats, which I think they do, and then

1212
00:56:07,040 --> 00:56:08,560
Speaker 2: you play, you have to go to like cores and

1213
00:56:08,600 --> 00:56:11,200
Speaker 2: play just stupid games, even though how bad I think

1214
00:56:11,239 --> 00:56:13,200
Speaker 2: the Rockies are gonna be, like you just you're gonna

1215
00:56:13,200 --> 00:56:14,080
Speaker 2: play dumb games.

1216
00:56:14,120 --> 00:56:16,280
Speaker 3: So that's the only thing that scares me about the Giants.

1217
00:56:16,680 --> 00:56:18,719
Speaker 3: The Giants. You know, this is year three of the

1218
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:22,280
Speaker 3: Farns Aty era. They brought over a lot of front

1219
00:56:22,320 --> 00:56:26,680
Speaker 3: office talent from the Dodgers. They continue to explore and

1220
00:56:26,719 --> 00:56:29,319
Speaker 3: find value that's kind of hidden in the market on

1221
00:56:29,320 --> 00:56:31,960
Speaker 3: a yearly basis. So I really just like the way

1222
00:56:32,000 --> 00:56:34,440
Speaker 3: this Giants team is run. They're getting Busts your posy

1223
00:56:34,440 --> 00:56:36,319
Speaker 3: back this year. He took last year off. If he

1224
00:56:36,360 --> 00:56:39,560
Speaker 3: gives them anything, it's a huge bonus. But they have

1225
00:56:39,680 --> 00:56:43,319
Speaker 3: Joey Bart, who's the top catching prospect in baseball. Haale o'

1226
00:56:43,400 --> 00:56:45,000
Speaker 3: ramos will be in center field, maybe.

1227
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:45,719
Speaker 2: Even on opening Day.

1228
00:56:45,840 --> 00:56:49,319
Speaker 3: So yeah, there's there's upside with this Giants team, and

1229
00:56:49,360 --> 00:56:51,520
Speaker 3: I think all of that just continues to point to

1230
00:56:51,560 --> 00:56:55,040
Speaker 3: the Rockies under the only concern that I have is

1231
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:59,080
Speaker 3: that the Diamondbacks just completely sell. I don't really know

1232
00:56:59,239 --> 00:57:01,600
Speaker 3: how many pieces they could ship off, you know, in

1233
00:57:01,640 --> 00:57:05,600
Speaker 3: terms of logistics, but other than Zach Gallen, I don't

1234
00:57:05,600 --> 00:57:07,840
Speaker 3: think they're really tied to any piece on their rosters.

1235
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:10,359
Speaker 3: So if the Diamondbacks just decide to burn the whole

1236
00:57:10,360 --> 00:57:12,920
Speaker 3: thing down because there's two dominant teams in their division,

1237
00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:15,560
Speaker 3: kick the can down the road another five years, it

1238
00:57:15,600 --> 00:57:16,840
Speaker 3: shouldn't surprise anybody.

1239
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:18,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, Madison Bumgunder, is he done?

1240
00:57:18,760 --> 00:57:19,000
Speaker 1: Thrill?

1241
00:57:19,080 --> 00:57:19,320
Speaker 4: That'll?

1242
00:57:19,440 --> 00:57:22,720
Speaker 2: That'll probably I think factor into a lot of whether

1243
00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:25,439
Speaker 2: or not the Diamondbacks obviously if they sell or not too,

1244
00:57:25,640 --> 00:57:27,360
Speaker 2: but if they go over their wind total or not. Right,

1245
00:57:27,960 --> 00:57:31,120
Speaker 2: is Bumgunner just gonna be get shelled every night? Well?

1246
00:57:31,160 --> 00:57:34,000
Speaker 2: I mean his er was awful and his peripherle was

1247
00:57:34,080 --> 00:57:35,960
Speaker 2: even worse last year. I mean, he just got pounded

1248
00:57:36,080 --> 00:57:38,640
Speaker 2: every time he was out. Is he done or is

1249
00:57:38,960 --> 00:57:41,200
Speaker 2: can we expect somewhat a bounce back this year?

1250
00:57:41,320 --> 00:57:42,760
Speaker 3: I mean, I hate to say it, but it sure

1251
00:57:42,800 --> 00:57:47,000
Speaker 3: seems that way. His strikeout to walks from twenty nineteen

1252
00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:50,000
Speaker 3: to twenty twenty cut in half. His fastball declined by

1253
00:57:50,000 --> 00:57:52,120
Speaker 3: three miles an hour. I mean, you don't go from

1254
00:57:52,200 --> 00:57:54,240
Speaker 3: ninety one point seven miles an hour to eighty eight

1255
00:57:54,240 --> 00:57:57,959
Speaker 3: point six and subfinitely find it again generally, so either

1256
00:57:58,080 --> 00:57:59,960
Speaker 3: as a mechanical issue or an injury that he could

1257
00:58:00,200 --> 00:58:01,880
Speaker 3: fix and figure out, or he's completely done.

1258
00:58:01,920 --> 00:58:05,560
Speaker 2: It's one of the two. Yeah, I agree. By the way,

1259
00:58:05,600 --> 00:58:08,640
Speaker 2: before we get the recaps and bringing Conowoo Church, I

1260
00:58:08,680 --> 00:58:13,120
Speaker 2: did want to follow Zie on your your thought exercise

1261
00:58:13,440 --> 00:58:17,040
Speaker 2: on the projecting the secret humidors, because if we don't

1262
00:58:17,080 --> 00:58:21,320
Speaker 2: actually find out and I mean, don't take this for science,

1263
00:58:21,680 --> 00:58:25,840
Speaker 2: and then you kind of could guess where make it

1264
00:58:25,960 --> 00:58:28,320
Speaker 2: educated guess where these are, and then early in the season,

1265
00:58:28,720 --> 00:58:31,840
Speaker 2: you know, you would obviously have a hand up when

1266
00:58:31,840 --> 00:58:34,600
Speaker 2: it comes to betting some totals, and then maybe certain

1267
00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:38,320
Speaker 2: pitchers and teams depending on how they profile where else

1268
00:58:38,320 --> 00:58:40,120
Speaker 2: would you think where else are you guessing? I mean,

1269
00:58:40,160 --> 00:58:43,040
Speaker 2: I would assume wouldn't Miami make sense? Like I know

1270
00:58:43,120 --> 00:58:45,600
Speaker 2: that the like, isn't that how they want to win?

1271
00:58:45,960 --> 00:58:47,520
Speaker 2: But I don't know that's that's a team that came

1272
00:58:47,560 --> 00:58:49,120
Speaker 2: to my mind. Who else are you thinking?

1273
00:58:49,720 --> 00:58:52,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, so if we're if we're talking from the perspective

1274
00:58:52,960 --> 00:58:56,960
Speaker 3: of these teams, can like request them now, Yeah, it's

1275
00:58:57,040 --> 00:58:59,280
Speaker 3: possible that the Phillies could be a team like that,

1276
00:58:59,440 --> 00:59:02,080
Speaker 3: just because Citizens Bank Park has always kind of been

1277
00:59:02,120 --> 00:59:04,400
Speaker 3: a little bit of a home run haven and they've

1278
00:59:04,440 --> 00:59:07,120
Speaker 3: struggled to figure out the pitching almost the entire time

1279
00:59:07,120 --> 00:59:09,800
Speaker 3: they've been there. The bad teams to kind of even

1280
00:59:09,800 --> 00:59:13,320
Speaker 3: the playing field, like the Orioles, the Tigers, you know,

1281
00:59:13,360 --> 00:59:15,200
Speaker 3: the teams who have been at the bottom of the

1282
00:59:15,240 --> 00:59:17,280
Speaker 3: barrel who are just kind of trying to change it

1283
00:59:17,360 --> 00:59:21,040
Speaker 3: up and find something to support young pitchers, the Royals

1284
00:59:21,040 --> 00:59:23,920
Speaker 3: as well, giving younger pitchers that they might be building

1285
00:59:23,960 --> 00:59:26,760
Speaker 3: around more confidence that they're not giving up gopher balls

1286
00:59:26,760 --> 00:59:27,680
Speaker 3: every two seconds.

1287
00:59:27,840 --> 00:59:29,760
Speaker 1: But I mean, I think about it from the perspective

1288
00:59:29,800 --> 00:59:32,560
Speaker 1: of who's in your division, right, if you're the Rays,

1289
00:59:32,760 --> 00:59:35,120
Speaker 1: your game is not built around hitting bombs and when

1290
00:59:35,120 --> 00:59:37,160
Speaker 1: you've got the Blue Jays and Yankees in your division,

1291
00:59:37,240 --> 00:59:39,480
Speaker 1: you would want one. If you're the Royals and you

1292
00:59:39,520 --> 00:59:42,920
Speaker 1: see the Twins up in Minnesota just bombing like crazy,

1293
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:45,040
Speaker 1: you would want one. So I think, you know, if

1294
00:59:45,040 --> 00:59:46,920
Speaker 1: you could request it, that's the teams I would keep

1295
00:59:46,960 --> 00:59:47,480
Speaker 1: my eyes on.

1296
00:59:48,000 --> 00:59:49,600
Speaker 2: That's why I was sticking the Marlins too. Like the

1297
00:59:49,640 --> 00:59:54,120
Speaker 2: Marlins aren't bombers, and they have great young pitching. If

1298
00:59:54,160 --> 00:59:57,000
Speaker 2: they want to take away the power of their opposition,

1299
00:59:57,480 --> 00:59:59,120
Speaker 2: and it would only help their pitchers even more, and

1300
00:59:59,160 --> 01:00:00,920
Speaker 2: it's not really going to hurt. Like the Marlin's art

1301
01:00:00,920 --> 01:00:03,560
Speaker 2: a team that's going to hit a ton of home runs.

1302
01:00:04,120 --> 01:00:06,280
Speaker 2: I should emphasize the A's as well. That's already a

1303
01:00:06,320 --> 01:00:09,040
Speaker 2: team who takes advantage of their giant park as much

1304
01:00:09,040 --> 01:00:11,680
Speaker 2: as possible, getting fly ball pitchers and pop up pitchers,

1305
01:00:11,720 --> 01:00:14,920
Speaker 2: stuff like that. So I could even imagine the Oco

1306
01:00:15,040 --> 01:00:16,520
Speaker 2: Coliseum with a human or in it.

1307
01:00:16,640 --> 01:00:18,680
Speaker 3: You'd see a home run every five games.

1308
01:00:18,680 --> 01:00:21,200
Speaker 2: But that place that might benefit.

1309
01:00:21,040 --> 01:00:22,920
Speaker 1: That place is a truggure. I can't wait to get

1310
01:00:22,920 --> 01:00:24,520
Speaker 1: back out with the live baseball at Oakland.

1311
01:00:24,880 --> 01:00:26,920
Speaker 2: All right, let's go around and recap with there's a

1312
01:00:26,920 --> 01:00:29,280
Speaker 2: lot of consensus here, which is good. I like when

1313
01:00:29,280 --> 01:00:32,520
Speaker 2: we agree, and we had some disagreements, but I'll start.

1314
01:00:32,560 --> 01:00:36,040
Speaker 2: I mean, I agree with you on the Mets. In

1315
01:00:36,320 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 2: the Nles, I agree with Mets division with the prices

1316
01:00:38,640 --> 01:00:42,840
Speaker 2: that are out there right now. In the NL Central

1317
01:00:43,360 --> 01:00:46,320
Speaker 2: it's the Brewers for me, and in the NL West,

1318
01:00:46,680 --> 01:00:50,720
Speaker 2: I'm staying away from the division. And my soul under

1319
01:00:51,400 --> 01:00:54,240
Speaker 2: is the rock in the NL is the Rockies under.

1320
01:00:54,280 --> 01:00:57,240
Speaker 2: So those are my three favorite bets. One per division.

1321
01:00:57,920 --> 01:01:00,240
Speaker 3: Sure, the Mets over ninety and a half wins. That's

1322
01:01:00,240 --> 01:01:02,200
Speaker 3: where I played up to the Mets. You can get

1323
01:01:02,200 --> 01:01:04,760
Speaker 3: plus one seventy at bet NGM. Please go hammer that.

1324
01:01:04,920 --> 01:01:08,040
Speaker 3: Please stop me from going back and putting all the

1325
01:01:08,080 --> 01:01:10,320
Speaker 3: money I'm saving for a house on that number, because

1326
01:01:10,440 --> 01:01:13,080
Speaker 3: I think that's an absurd figure. That's again a twenty

1327
01:01:13,080 --> 01:01:15,240
Speaker 3: percent edge compared to my projection, and if you go

1328
01:01:15,240 --> 01:01:18,200
Speaker 3: by Pakoda, it's close to a forty percent edge. In

1329
01:01:18,240 --> 01:01:21,640
Speaker 3: the Central, we're thinking about the Cardinals under, but given

1330
01:01:21,680 --> 01:01:24,240
Speaker 3: the weakness of that division, I'm more inclined to play

1331
01:01:24,240 --> 01:01:26,000
Speaker 3: the Pirates over fifty eight and a half wins. You

1332
01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:28,280
Speaker 3: can get fifty seven and a half the West Gate again,

1333
01:01:28,280 --> 01:01:30,200
Speaker 3: they played at a fifty nine one pace by their

1334
01:01:30,200 --> 01:01:32,360
Speaker 3: pithag last year, and I think they'll be a little

1335
01:01:32,360 --> 01:01:34,840
Speaker 3: bit better than they were in the Enda West. I

1336
01:01:34,960 --> 01:01:37,200
Speaker 3: like the Dotters over one hundred and one and a

1337
01:01:37,240 --> 01:01:39,480
Speaker 3: half wins like the potter is over ninety four and

1338
01:01:39,520 --> 01:01:41,600
Speaker 3: a half, or like the Giants over seventy four and

1339
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:44,000
Speaker 3: a half. And I should mention back in the central

1340
01:01:44,040 --> 01:01:47,439
Speaker 3: of the bruers to win the central down about plus

1341
01:01:47,440 --> 01:01:48,920
Speaker 3: two eighty but you can get plus three eighty.

1342
01:01:48,760 --> 01:01:51,800
Speaker 2: Five or ywer. By the way, I haven't figured out

1343
01:01:51,800 --> 01:01:53,560
Speaker 2: who your ti Oscar is in the idol yet.

1344
01:01:53,640 --> 01:01:55,800
Speaker 1: Eugenio Suarez for the Reds is the one that I'm

1345
01:01:55,840 --> 01:01:58,760
Speaker 1: looking at in the home run department, and we don't

1346
01:01:58,800 --> 01:02:00,480
Speaker 1: know if he gets shipped off either, right, I mean,

1347
01:02:00,480 --> 01:02:02,760
Speaker 1: there's any name out of the Reds organization could get

1348
01:02:02,800 --> 01:02:07,120
Speaker 1: sent packing. Considering when we got Zerillo's analysis of how

1349
01:02:07,200 --> 01:02:09,560
Speaker 1: much money each owner has here, they're going to need

1350
01:02:09,560 --> 01:02:12,840
Speaker 1: the dollars. So I haven't made that bet yet, but

1351
01:02:12,840 --> 01:02:14,520
Speaker 1: it's something I've got my eye on. A bet I

1352
01:02:14,560 --> 01:02:17,680
Speaker 1: am going to make is going to be Francisco Lindor

1353
01:02:17,840 --> 01:02:21,920
Speaker 1: and Raphael Devers both to have most hits, so it's

1354
01:02:21,960 --> 01:02:23,600
Speaker 1: really kind of an AL and n L bet. They're

1355
01:02:23,640 --> 01:02:25,800
Speaker 1: both a DK at twenty to one and twenty two

1356
01:02:25,880 --> 01:02:28,520
Speaker 1: to one. Brian Hayes is Rookie of the Year listened

1357
01:02:28,520 --> 01:02:30,960
Speaker 1: at plus five point fifty for the Pirates. I want

1358
01:02:31,040 --> 01:02:33,920
Speaker 1: Hayes as Rookie of the Year for the NL. I'm

1359
01:02:33,960 --> 01:02:36,080
Speaker 1: not sure I want that number, so I may sit

1360
01:02:36,160 --> 01:02:37,920
Speaker 1: on it for a while and see if some other

1361
01:02:38,040 --> 01:02:40,520
Speaker 1: names or another book maybe releases some action and we

1362
01:02:40,520 --> 01:02:43,560
Speaker 1: get a better number out there. The Phillies is a

1363
01:02:43,600 --> 01:02:46,000
Speaker 1: team that I'm considering taking the under. I have not

1364
01:02:46,080 --> 01:02:48,960
Speaker 1: made a personal investment there, but this is more on

1365
01:02:49,000 --> 01:02:52,720
Speaker 1: the fact that I'm really not a fan of what

1366
01:02:52,760 --> 01:02:55,880
Speaker 1: they're They're in transition, it's not their year, and in

1367
01:02:55,920 --> 01:02:57,680
Speaker 1: a division that's got the Braves and the Mets, I

1368
01:02:57,680 --> 01:02:59,600
Speaker 1: think they may be sellers. I'm going to come back

1369
01:02:59,640 --> 01:03:02,160
Speaker 1: on the brew since I already have the cards. I

1370
01:03:02,240 --> 01:03:04,240
Speaker 1: like the Giants over. We'll put some money on them.

1371
01:03:04,280 --> 01:03:06,440
Speaker 1: I like the Padres over ninety two, but thank you

1372
01:03:06,520 --> 01:03:09,640
Speaker 1: to this discussion that we've had here. I think once

1373
01:03:09,720 --> 01:03:11,480
Speaker 1: the mass love comes in on the Padres and they

1374
01:03:11,480 --> 01:03:13,560
Speaker 1: get to ninety five ninety five and a half, I

1375
01:03:13,600 --> 01:03:15,160
Speaker 1: may turn around and hedge it and try to get

1376
01:03:15,160 --> 01:03:17,560
Speaker 1: a window. Because the injuries of the pitching staff is real.

1377
01:03:17,720 --> 01:03:21,080
Speaker 1: And Shawn's right, they're gonna have to exceed the innings

1378
01:03:21,080 --> 01:03:23,520
Speaker 1: that are set by Lament and Blake Snell for them

1379
01:03:23,520 --> 01:03:26,600
Speaker 1: to catch the Dodgers in this division. So Giants over

1380
01:03:26,680 --> 01:03:31,640
Speaker 1: for me. Suarez home run prop, Francisco Lindor hitting most

1381
01:03:31,720 --> 01:03:32,960
Speaker 1: hints by.

1382
01:03:32,840 --> 01:03:34,680
Speaker 2: The way, Colin who led the Al home runs in

1383
01:03:34,760 --> 01:03:40,800
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, Orgay Solaire, Yes, And so I think the

1384
01:03:40,840 --> 01:03:45,080
Speaker 2: Suarez is interesting in that aspect, Like we think the

1385
01:03:45,120 --> 01:03:48,120
Speaker 2: Reds are gonna be bad, he is gonna be playing

1386
01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:51,360
Speaker 2: for a bad team. He's also playing in a hitter

1387
01:03:51,480 --> 01:03:54,240
Speaker 2: friendly park. And if they're getting blown out a lot

1388
01:03:54,280 --> 01:03:56,560
Speaker 2: and they're in a bad division, bad pitching, and they're

1389
01:03:56,560 --> 01:03:59,440
Speaker 2: getting blown out a lot, he's gonna faced even worse pitching.

1390
01:04:00,120 --> 01:04:02,480
Speaker 2: Got cheap home runs, I don't hate it.

1391
01:04:02,600 --> 01:04:05,280
Speaker 1: Yeah. And for most saves, let me throw that in there.

1392
01:04:05,280 --> 01:04:07,080
Speaker 1: I am living at the most saves prop. And I

1393
01:04:07,160 --> 01:04:10,600
Speaker 1: want a I want a closer on a shitty team

1394
01:04:10,680 --> 01:04:13,680
Speaker 1: because they get they get saves too. And Richard Rodriguez

1395
01:04:13,680 --> 01:04:15,920
Speaker 1: for the Pirates most saves and the pirates over is

1396
01:04:15,920 --> 01:04:17,680
Speaker 1: going to be two fun bets to make this year.

1397
01:04:17,720 --> 01:04:19,720
Speaker 3: As I did for the al Just keep in mind

1398
01:04:19,760 --> 01:04:22,920
Speaker 3: there's so many really good rookies that carried over from

1399
01:04:22,960 --> 01:04:26,480
Speaker 3: last year Ian Anderson, six though Sanchez, Brian Hayes like,

1400
01:04:26,720 --> 01:04:28,800
Speaker 3: it's going to be impossible to pick amongst those guys

1401
01:04:28,800 --> 01:04:31,360
Speaker 3: at the end of the year. Probably, so, I feel

1402
01:04:31,360 --> 01:04:34,760
Speaker 3: like the pitchers rarely get considered as strongly as the

1403
01:04:34,840 --> 01:04:35,280
Speaker 3: hitters do.

1404
01:04:35,400 --> 01:04:38,040
Speaker 2: But I'd have to look into that more. Yeah, and uh,

1405
01:04:38,200 --> 01:04:41,840
Speaker 2: you'll have contact coming on like Cy Young's MVPs and

1406
01:04:41,840 --> 01:04:44,160
Speaker 2: all that shortly on actually now.

1407
01:04:44,120 --> 01:04:47,080
Speaker 3: Both Cy Young's last year, so I'm unlikely to ever

1408
01:04:47,120 --> 01:04:48,600
Speaker 3: do that again, but I'll do my best.

1409
01:04:49,160 --> 01:04:54,080
Speaker 2: Yeah. I gave you money, unfortunately to put and then

1410
01:04:54,080 --> 01:04:57,560
Speaker 2: I bought a couple extra tickets that you had on Darvish,

1411
01:04:57,640 --> 01:05:00,000
Speaker 2: who I still think should have won. Yes, I'm biased.

1412
01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:03,720
Speaker 2: All right, Before we get out of here, let's bring

1413
01:05:03,800 --> 01:05:06,960
Speaker 2: in who you should be familiar with from our last podcast.

1414
01:05:07,000 --> 01:05:11,720
Speaker 2: We're very excited to have him ex Baseball Perspectives baseball genius,

1415
01:05:11,920 --> 01:05:14,680
Speaker 2: colinwood Church. He joined our team as an editor and

1416
01:05:14,720 --> 01:05:17,720
Speaker 2: we're just really excited to have him here. We're excited

1417
01:05:17,720 --> 01:05:21,400
Speaker 2: to have new states out of legalized sports betting, so

1418
01:05:22,240 --> 01:05:24,440
Speaker 2: he joins us now to give his favorite Mets for

1419
01:05:24,480 --> 01:05:28,400
Speaker 2: the NL teams in those legal states, which are the Mets,

1420
01:05:28,760 --> 01:05:33,240
Speaker 2: the Nats, the Phillies, the Cubs, the Pirates, and the Rockies.

1421
01:05:34,000 --> 01:05:34,720
Speaker 2: Take it away. Come.

1422
01:05:35,680 --> 01:05:38,760
Speaker 6: So with baseball season starting up, there are even more

1423
01:05:38,840 --> 01:05:43,600
Speaker 6: states where online sports betting is legal. In the National League,

1424
01:05:43,680 --> 01:05:47,040
Speaker 6: which is what we're talking about today. We have New Jersey,

1425
01:05:47,160 --> 01:05:50,560
Speaker 6: we have Virginia, we have Pennsylvania, we have Illinois, and

1426
01:05:50,600 --> 01:05:53,320
Speaker 6: we have Colorado. We're gonna start up in the New

1427
01:05:53,400 --> 01:05:56,560
Speaker 6: Jersey area in New York City with the Mets.

1428
01:06:00,040 --> 01:06:01,640
Speaker 2: Know what happened in the Met game. Don't say anything.

1429
01:06:01,680 --> 01:06:02,160
Speaker 2: I taped it.

1430
01:06:02,160 --> 01:06:04,160
Speaker 1: Hello. Yeah, no, I'm sorry, you have.

1431
01:06:04,120 --> 01:06:04,840
Speaker 3: The wrong number.

1432
01:06:04,920 --> 01:06:07,560
Speaker 6: One of the talks of the off season. Of course,

1433
01:06:07,600 --> 01:06:11,200
Speaker 6: they acquired Francisco Lindor recent signing with Taiwan Walker. They

1434
01:06:11,200 --> 01:06:13,720
Speaker 6: had big plans, missed out on George Springer, missed out

1435
01:06:13,760 --> 01:06:15,640
Speaker 6: on Trevor Bauer, but still one of the talks of

1436
01:06:15,680 --> 01:06:19,160
Speaker 6: the National League. Mets win total is set at ninety

1437
01:06:19,240 --> 01:06:22,880
Speaker 6: and a half. Our own Sean Zarrillo, obviously a Mets fan,

1438
01:06:23,120 --> 01:06:25,640
Speaker 6: loves this win. Total loves the over for the Mets.

1439
01:06:25,880 --> 01:06:27,720
Speaker 6: I'm going to take a slight over here. I'm not

1440
01:06:27,840 --> 01:06:30,680
Speaker 6: as confident as Sean is. The Mets playing one of

1441
01:06:30,720 --> 01:06:33,960
Speaker 6: the most competitive divisions in baseball with the Nationals, with

1442
01:06:34,000 --> 01:06:36,680
Speaker 6: the Braves of defending champions. The Phillies are still trying.

1443
01:06:36,760 --> 01:06:39,120
Speaker 6: Even the Marlins, you know, made the playoffs last year,

1444
01:06:39,120 --> 01:06:41,240
Speaker 6: have one of the most exciting young rosters in baseball.

1445
01:06:41,360 --> 01:06:44,040
Speaker 6: Terms of town, the pipeline coming up, it's a really

1446
01:06:44,040 --> 01:06:46,320
Speaker 6: competitive division. I think the Mets are going to be

1447
01:06:46,360 --> 01:06:48,160
Speaker 6: neck and neck with the Braves for the division title.

1448
01:06:48,360 --> 01:06:50,520
Speaker 6: I'll take the over on ninety and a half. It's

1449
01:06:50,520 --> 01:06:52,680
Speaker 6: a slight over for me. I wouldn't play it above that.

1450
01:06:53,000 --> 01:06:54,600
Speaker 6: We're going to stay in the National League East with

1451
01:06:54,680 --> 01:06:58,120
Speaker 6: the Nationals obviously the World Series champions from two years ago.

1452
01:06:58,200 --> 01:07:00,680
Speaker 6: They're over under, sitting at eighty four four and a half.

1453
01:07:00,960 --> 01:07:03,960
Speaker 6: That seems just about right. I'm going to say a

1454
01:07:03,960 --> 01:07:07,720
Speaker 6: slide over there as well. The Nationals had the season

1455
01:07:07,760 --> 01:07:10,800
Speaker 6: from hell a year ago coming off their World Series title.

1456
01:07:11,160 --> 01:07:13,080
Speaker 6: They still have a lot of great talent. They still

1457
01:07:13,080 --> 01:07:15,960
Speaker 6: have Steven Strasburg, Max Shirz or Patrick Corbett in the rotation.

1458
01:07:16,040 --> 01:07:17,960
Speaker 6: Wan Soda is one of the most exciting young players

1459
01:07:18,000 --> 01:07:20,960
Speaker 6: in baseball. Everything went wrong for them last year. They're

1460
01:07:20,960 --> 01:07:22,600
Speaker 6: going to be in the mix for the postseason this year.

1461
01:07:22,640 --> 01:07:24,640
Speaker 6: I'm going over on eighty four and a half. Don't

1462
01:07:24,680 --> 01:07:26,400
Speaker 6: think I would played above that number of eighty four

1463
01:07:26,440 --> 01:07:28,760
Speaker 6: and a half though. One more for the National League

1464
01:07:28,760 --> 01:07:31,840
Speaker 6: East with the Philadelphia Phillies. As I mentioned before, the

1465
01:07:31,920 --> 01:07:34,240
Speaker 6: National League East one of the most competitive divisions in baseball,

1466
01:07:34,240 --> 01:07:37,560
Speaker 6: probably the most competitive division in baseball. Not everyone's going

1467
01:07:37,600 --> 01:07:39,880
Speaker 6: to be able to go over here. Phillies' number is

1468
01:07:39,920 --> 01:07:41,960
Speaker 6: eighty and a half. I'm going to go under here.

1469
01:07:42,280 --> 01:07:45,280
Speaker 6: The Phillies did spend money to try to improve their team.

1470
01:07:45,680 --> 01:07:46,800
Speaker 6: They brought back JT.

1471
01:07:46,960 --> 01:07:47,480
Speaker 1: Real Mudo.

1472
01:07:47,680 --> 01:07:50,920
Speaker 6: It's not enough to overtake the Mets, the Braves, the Phillies.

1473
01:07:50,920 --> 01:07:53,240
Speaker 6: I still think they're the fourth best team in this division.

1474
01:07:53,360 --> 01:07:55,160
Speaker 6: It's hard to imagine that we have four teams in

1475
01:07:55,200 --> 01:07:57,840
Speaker 6: that division finishing five hundred or better. Eighty and a

1476
01:07:57,880 --> 01:08:00,400
Speaker 6: half wins, I'm going to go under there. I would

1477
01:08:00,440 --> 01:08:02,440
Speaker 6: play that down about another win to seventy nine and

1478
01:08:02,480 --> 01:08:05,440
Speaker 6: a half. Moving over to the National League Central with

1479
01:08:05,480 --> 01:08:08,280
Speaker 6: the Chicago Cubs, one of the most interesting teams that

1480
01:08:08,320 --> 01:08:11,320
Speaker 6: you can possibly bet this year. Obviously turned into a

1481
01:08:11,320 --> 01:08:14,920
Speaker 6: heavyweight with their twenty sixteen World Series title, have been

1482
01:08:15,200 --> 01:08:18,719
Speaker 6: contenders every year since as a playoff team or close

1483
01:08:18,760 --> 01:08:21,280
Speaker 6: to a playoff team. They spent their offseason with their

1484
01:08:21,320 --> 01:08:25,040
Speaker 6: ownership talking about cutting costs, not spending money. They traded

1485
01:08:25,080 --> 01:08:28,719
Speaker 6: you Darvish. They talked about trading Chris Bryant Wilson Can traders.

1486
01:08:28,760 --> 01:08:31,800
Speaker 6: They haven't done that yet, but they still could. The

1487
01:08:31,880 --> 01:08:35,120
Speaker 6: Vegas books set them at seventy nine and a half wins.

1488
01:08:35,439 --> 01:08:38,599
Speaker 6: That seems about right. I'm probably gonna go under here

1489
01:08:38,920 --> 01:08:41,879
Speaker 6: just because of what ownership is saying of trading those stars.

1490
01:08:42,000 --> 01:08:44,360
Speaker 6: They might be playing at a pace to win eighty

1491
01:08:44,439 --> 01:08:47,639
Speaker 6: eighty one eighty two games come July. They're gonna trade

1492
01:08:47,720 --> 01:08:49,800
Speaker 6: Chris Brent, They're gonna trade Wilson Can trailers. They might

1493
01:08:49,800 --> 01:08:52,840
Speaker 6: trade anything that they possibly can to save money. The

1494
01:08:52,880 --> 01:08:55,640
Speaker 6: ownership is so cheap right now, under seventy nine and

1495
01:08:55,680 --> 01:08:58,000
Speaker 6: a half. The current talent level of that roster is

1496
01:08:58,280 --> 01:08:59,800
Speaker 6: one that can win more than seventy nine and a

1497
01:08:59,800 --> 01:09:01,840
Speaker 6: half games. But I'm not confident they're going to keep

1498
01:09:01,880 --> 01:09:04,360
Speaker 6: trying to win all the way throughout the summer. Also

1499
01:09:04,439 --> 01:09:06,879
Speaker 6: in the National League Central, we have the Pittsburgh Pirates,

1500
01:09:07,080 --> 01:09:10,679
Speaker 6: the lowest win total projection in baseball, the worst team

1501
01:09:10,760 --> 01:09:13,519
Speaker 6: in baseball. Entering the season, they were set at fifty

1502
01:09:13,600 --> 01:09:15,719
Speaker 6: nine and a half wins. That's a pace of losing

1503
01:09:15,760 --> 01:09:18,200
Speaker 6: more than one hundred games. I'm going to surprise you

1504
01:09:18,200 --> 01:09:19,719
Speaker 6: a little bit here, and I'm going to go over

1505
01:09:19,800 --> 01:09:21,920
Speaker 6: on the Pirates. I don't think they're going to be

1506
01:09:21,960 --> 01:09:24,599
Speaker 6: the worst team in the National League this year. You're

1507
01:09:24,600 --> 01:09:25,960
Speaker 6: going to find out who I think that is in

1508
01:09:26,120 --> 01:09:28,840
Speaker 6: just one minute. Pirates also play in one of the

1509
01:09:28,920 --> 01:09:31,839
Speaker 6: least competitive divisions in baseball, in the National League Central.

1510
01:09:32,080 --> 01:09:35,080
Speaker 6: As I just mentioned, the Cubs aren't exactly trying to win.

1511
01:09:35,200 --> 01:09:37,920
Speaker 6: The Cardinals and Brewers are both trying to win, but

1512
01:09:38,120 --> 01:09:41,280
Speaker 6: are they really trying to win? And the Cincinnati Reds

1513
01:09:41,320 --> 01:09:44,280
Speaker 6: have talked about cutting costs after losing Trevor Bauer in

1514
01:09:44,400 --> 01:09:46,680
Speaker 6: the off season. The Pirates are going to win over

1515
01:09:46,720 --> 01:09:49,240
Speaker 6: not fifty nine and a half games, just based simply

1516
01:09:49,240 --> 01:09:51,120
Speaker 6: on the fact that they play in the least competitive

1517
01:09:51,160 --> 01:09:53,360
Speaker 6: division in baseball. They also have a lot of really

1518
01:09:53,520 --> 01:09:56,559
Speaker 6: talented young players. Cabrian Hayes came up last year. He's

1519
01:09:56,600 --> 01:09:58,960
Speaker 6: an NL Rookie of the Year candidate, probably my favorite

1520
01:09:59,000 --> 01:10:00,920
Speaker 6: to win NL Rookie of the Year. As a bonus

1521
01:10:00,920 --> 01:10:03,320
Speaker 6: little side future there for you. The Pirates are going

1522
01:10:03,360 --> 01:10:04,720
Speaker 6: to go over fifty nine and a half because of

1523
01:10:04,720 --> 01:10:08,240
Speaker 6: the young talent and the uncompetitive division they play in.

1524
01:10:09,120 --> 01:10:11,720
Speaker 6: Last up out West with the Colorado Rockies. This is

1525
01:10:11,800 --> 01:10:16,000
Speaker 6: my favorite win total bet in either league across the board,

1526
01:10:16,080 --> 01:10:18,760
Speaker 6: the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies are going to be the

1527
01:10:18,800 --> 01:10:21,320
Speaker 6: worst team in the National League, maybe the worst team

1528
01:10:21,320 --> 01:10:24,280
Speaker 6: in baseball. I'm sorry fans in Colorado. I'm very excited

1529
01:10:24,280 --> 01:10:26,720
Speaker 6: that you have legal online sports betting available to you,

1530
01:10:27,120 --> 01:10:31,240
Speaker 6: but your team sucks. The Rockies play in not the

1531
01:10:31,240 --> 01:10:33,360
Speaker 6: most competitive division in baseball, but with the two best

1532
01:10:33,360 --> 01:10:35,920
Speaker 6: teams in the National League, the Dodgers and the Padres,

1533
01:10:36,120 --> 01:10:38,240
Speaker 6: they have to play. Those two teams are combined thirty

1534
01:10:38,240 --> 01:10:40,800
Speaker 6: eight times. Behind the Dodgers and Padres, we have the

1535
01:10:40,800 --> 01:10:43,479
Speaker 6: Giants and Diamondbacks, both competitive teams. They're not going to

1536
01:10:43,479 --> 01:10:45,679
Speaker 6: win the World Series or anything, but they're competitive teams.

1537
01:10:45,720 --> 01:10:48,800
Speaker 6: They field competent rosters. That's seventy six wins within this

1538
01:10:49,000 --> 01:10:52,719
Speaker 6: National League West for the Colorado Rockies. Their win total

1539
01:10:52,800 --> 01:10:55,880
Speaker 6: is sixty four and a half. I'm going way under there.

1540
01:10:55,920 --> 01:10:58,479
Speaker 6: I think they're going to lose one hundred plus games.

1541
01:10:58,920 --> 01:11:02,480
Speaker 6: The Rockies, as you know, traded Nolan Ernado in the offseason.

1542
01:11:02,760 --> 01:11:05,960
Speaker 6: Didn't get much in return. There's a statistic created by

1543
01:11:06,080 --> 01:11:08,960
Speaker 6: Baseball Perspectives called Deserve Druns created plus. It's an all

1544
01:11:09,040 --> 01:11:13,799
Speaker 6: encompassing offensive statistic basically used to gauge offensive performance across

1545
01:11:13,800 --> 01:11:17,400
Speaker 6: the board. There are two Rockies offensive players currently projected

1546
01:11:17,400 --> 01:11:20,240
Speaker 6: to be above average by DRC plus. That's Trevor Story,

1547
01:11:20,240 --> 01:11:23,720
Speaker 6: That's Charlie Blackman. The rotation as Jerman Marquez promising an

1548
01:11:23,720 --> 01:11:26,519
Speaker 6: exciting young arm behind that Kyle Freelan John Gray. Don't

1549
01:11:26,520 --> 01:11:29,479
Speaker 6: inspire much confidence. The Rockies are going to be really bad.

1550
01:11:29,720 --> 01:11:33,880
Speaker 6: They played seventy six games against the Dodgers, Padres, Giants,

1551
01:11:33,880 --> 01:11:36,040
Speaker 6: and Diamondbacks. They're going to be one hundred lost pace

1552
01:11:36,320 --> 01:11:38,160
Speaker 6: under sixty four and a half. I would play that

1553
01:11:38,200 --> 01:11:39,599
Speaker 6: down to sixty two and a half.

1554
01:11:40,080 --> 01:11:44,080
Speaker 2: All right, Thanks Colin again, thanks for joining me. Sean

1555
01:11:44,160 --> 01:11:47,960
Speaker 2: Zarrillo and Colin Wilson. Hope you all enjoyed listening. Make

1556
01:11:48,000 --> 01:11:50,479
Speaker 2: sure you subscribe on Subscribe subscribe you know the drill.

1557
01:11:50,560 --> 01:11:52,519
Speaker 2: Tell a friend, tell an enemy, leave a review. It

1558
01:11:52,560 --> 01:11:56,080
Speaker 2: really helps us out. I hope you found some valuable

1559
01:11:56,360 --> 01:12:00,960
Speaker 2: nuggets in these two preview podcasts. Yes, we'll be back

1560
01:12:02,200 --> 01:12:05,280
Speaker 2: this week next week with more baseball content, but especially

1561
01:12:05,360 --> 01:12:09,439
Speaker 2: throughout the season. Excited to have to go through the

1562
01:12:09,479 --> 01:12:12,800
Speaker 2: grind with everyone. So thanks for listening and we will

1563
01:12:12,880 --> 01:12:16,439
Speaker 2: catch you all later. Cheers, He's out, MutS