1
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,000
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:12,840
Speaker 2: This is the BlueBag Day Baker and podcast, available every

3
00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:15,760
Speaker 2: morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Wednesday,

4
00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:18,759
Speaker 2: the thirtieth of April. Here in London. I'm Caroline Hipke.

5
00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:21,720
Speaker 1: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. Donald Trump turns

6
00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:24,599
Speaker 1: up the heat on Jerome Powell as the US President

7
00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:28,480
Speaker 1: defends his economic agenda after one hundred days in office.

8
00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:32,879
Speaker 2: Astra Zeneca's CFO tells us she's seen no evidence that

9
00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:35,839
Speaker 2: UK growth policies are matching the rhetoric.

10
00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:40,800
Speaker 1: Plus, Switzerland risks missing out on lucrative European arms contracts

11
00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:44,720
Speaker 1: as the country's neutrality threatens to stifle its defense industry.

12
00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,160
Speaker 2: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

13
00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:50,519
Speaker 1: US President Donald Trump has renewed his criticism of the

14
00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:54,600
Speaker 1: Federal Reserve Chair Jerown Powell while defending his economic policies

15
00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:57,520
Speaker 1: and tariff strategy during an event to mark his one

16
00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:01,120
Speaker 1: hundredth day in office. Speaking to support in Michigan, Trump

17
00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:04,400
Speaker 1: again pressured the Central Bank to cut interest rates despite

18
00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:07,399
Speaker 1: the independence of Fed policymaking.

19
00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:11,920
Speaker 3: And inflation is basically down and interest rate came down

20
00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:14,360
Speaker 3: despite the fact that I have a FED person who's

21
00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:16,880
Speaker 3: not really doing a good job. But I won't say that.

22
00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:19,319
Speaker 3: I want to be very nice. I want to be

23
00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:23,880
Speaker 3: very nice and respectful to the Fed. You're not supposed

24
00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:26,039
Speaker 3: to criticize the FED. You're supposed to let him do

25
00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:27,840
Speaker 3: his own thing. But I know much more than he

26
00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:29,520
Speaker 3: does about interest rates, believe me.

27
00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,360
Speaker 1: Although Trump said earlier this month that he doesn't plan

28
00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,319
Speaker 1: to fire Powell, his latest remarks are likely to heighten

29
00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:39,160
Speaker 1: investor concerns over the Central Bank's independence as the White

30
00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:43,600
Speaker 1: House pursues an aggressive restructuring of US trade relationships, adding

31
00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:47,319
Speaker 1: to economic anxiety. US consumer confidence dropped in April to

32
00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:49,480
Speaker 1: its lowest level in nearly five years.

33
00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:54,480
Speaker 2: China's factory activity has fallen into its shop is contraction

34
00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,160
Speaker 2: in sixteen months. In an early sign of the fallout

35
00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:01,360
Speaker 2: from one hundred and forty five percent US Harris, the

36
00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:05,880
Speaker 2: official Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index dropped more than expected to

37
00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:08,799
Speaker 2: forty nine in April. That was down from fifty point

38
00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:13,000
Speaker 2: five in March. Meanwhile, the non manufacturing index, which covers

39
00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:17,920
Speaker 2: construction and services, also grew more slowly than anticipated, but

40
00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:22,279
Speaker 2: speaking to ABC News, the US President said China deserves

41
00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:25,720
Speaker 2: the steep tariffs he has imposed on their exports, adding

42
00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,919
Speaker 2: that Beijing could fight a way to reduce their impact

43
00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:30,519
Speaker 2: on American consumers.

44
00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:33,720
Speaker 4: China probably will eat those tariffs, but at one hundred

45
00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,120
Speaker 4: and forty five, they basically can't do much business with

46
00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:39,440
Speaker 4: the United States. And they were making from us a

47
00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,440
Speaker 4: trillion dollars a year. They were ripping us off like

48
00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:44,600
Speaker 4: nobody's ever ripped us off. And by the way, we

49
00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:47,200
Speaker 4: have other countries that were just as bad. If you

50
00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:49,640
Speaker 4: look at the European Union, who was terrible what they've

51
00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,640
Speaker 4: done to us. Every country, almost every country in the

52
00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:54,040
Speaker 4: world was ripping us off.

53
00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:55,639
Speaker 5: They're not doing that anymore.

54
00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:59,400
Speaker 2: President Trump's defiant remarks come just days after his administration

55
00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,520
Speaker 2: signaled that it was seeking to ease tensions and to

56
00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:06,919
Speaker 2: re engage with Beijing in trade talks. Earlier on Tuesday,

57
00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:10,360
Speaker 2: Treasury Sectory Scott Bessen declined to offer details on any

58
00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:15,079
Speaker 2: active negotiations between the two countries, but warned that China

59
00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:18,240
Speaker 2: could lose as many as ten million jobs due to

60
00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:19,519
Speaker 2: the tariffs.

61
00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:22,600
Speaker 1: As Donald Trump repeated his criticism of the European Union.

62
00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:24,800
Speaker 1: The Block says that it has put concessions on the

63
00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:27,519
Speaker 1: table during its talks with the US. While the White

64
00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:30,520
Speaker 1: House says negotiations are stuck at the starting line, the

65
00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:34,320
Speaker 1: EU Commissioner for International Partnership, Joseph Scala, has told Bloomberg

66
00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:36,440
Speaker 1: he is confident a deal can be reached.

67
00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:40,640
Speaker 6: Instability is not a good message for business because business

68
00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:45,320
Speaker 6: is always looking for save heavens, for predictability, for stability,

69
00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:50,320
Speaker 6: and this is something we want to offer to remain reliable,

70
00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:55,120
Speaker 6: stable and predictable partner, and I have a good feeling

71
00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:59,480
Speaker 6: that we will solve the issues to a mutual interest.

72
00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,680
Speaker 1: So callas a Bee tone clashed with comments from US

73
00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:05,920
Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary Scott Besson. He told a press briefing that

74
00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:08,840
Speaker 1: trade talks wouldn't begin until the EU resolves what he

75
00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:13,120
Speaker 1: called internal issues, singling out the digital services tax levied

76
00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:15,400
Speaker 1: by some countries, calling it unfair.

77
00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:19,520
Speaker 2: President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to prevent

78
00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:24,000
Speaker 2: steel and car tariffs doing double damage to automakers. But

79
00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:27,279
Speaker 2: despite that, earning season is beginning to show how the

80
00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:30,800
Speaker 2: chaotic period for global trade is starting to hurt companies.

81
00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,600
Speaker 2: Bloebig's James Walcock has more you.

82
00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:37,359
Speaker 7: Can break down what we've heard so far into three groups. Firstly,

83
00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:39,880
Speaker 7: companies that say they're in for a rough ride, the

84
00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:44,640
Speaker 7: likes of General Motors, Smirk, Jet Blue, heavy on automakers,

85
00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:48,360
Speaker 7: retailers and air travel. This group is withdrawing earnings guidance,

86
00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:52,520
Speaker 7: slashing costs, and often delaying share buybacks. Then you have

87
00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:54,479
Speaker 7: a few like Coca Cola who see the trade war

88
00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:58,520
Speaker 7: is manageable with its sodas being bottled locally around the world.

89
00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:02,400
Speaker 7: And then you have Pandora's box, the firms who say

90
00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,559
Speaker 7: they still have no idea how to quantify what's coming

91
00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:09,760
Speaker 7: and haven't updated their forecast as quarter in London, Jeez

92
00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:13,479
Speaker 7: Woolcock Bloomberg Radio had some breaking garnings news for you

93
00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:16,640
Speaker 7: this morning. Profits at the Swiss banking giant UBS beat

94
00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:18,720
Speaker 7: estimates in the first three months of the year after

95
00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:22,760
Speaker 7: its markets division posted record performance during the recent volatility.

96
00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,320
Speaker 7: Net income for the three months to March came in

97
00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:28,560
Speaker 7: at one point seven billion dollars. Similar story at Francis

98
00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:31,880
Speaker 7: Sasita General, where record revenue from trading stocks and related

99
00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:35,680
Speaker 7: securities helped to lift revenue and profits past expectations. Net

100
00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:37,640
Speaker 7: income at SOCK ten more than doubled from a year

101
00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:40,880
Speaker 7: earlier to one point six billion euros. It beat two

102
00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:43,880
Speaker 7: for Spain's Santander with first quarter profits of three point

103
00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,240
Speaker 7: four billion dollars, and the lander said it was on

104
00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:49,320
Speaker 7: track to meet its fullier targets. Less good news though

105
00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:52,520
Speaker 7: from the auto sector this morning, Wherecedes Benz withdrawing its

106
00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:55,119
Speaker 7: outlook for this year due to the uncertainty from Donald

107
00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:58,600
Speaker 7: Trump's trade news the volatility sparked by Tariff's The company

108
00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,920
Speaker 7: says it's too high to run liably assess the business

109
00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:04,720
Speaker 7: development for the remainder of this year.

110
00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:08,240
Speaker 2: Drug maker Astra Zenica has told us it is seeing

111
00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:12,400
Speaker 2: no particular benefit from the UK government's focus on economic growth.

112
00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,920
Speaker 2: The company abandoned a plan four hundred and fifty million

113
00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:18,320
Speaker 2: pound investment in the UK at the start of this year.

114
00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:21,080
Speaker 2: Chance of Rachel Reeves, though, called Assenica one of the

115
00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:24,400
Speaker 2: great companies in January when she set out her plans

116
00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:27,599
Speaker 2: to kickstart economic growth, saying that she was determined to

117
00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:30,120
Speaker 2: make Britain the best place in the world to invest.

118
00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:36,080
Speaker 2: We asked Azeneca's chief financial officer, Aradana Sarin, whether she

119
00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:39,919
Speaker 2: is seeing any benefit from the government's pledge to boost

120
00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:41,320
Speaker 2: economic growth.

121
00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:46,120
Speaker 8: Not yet, so we haven't really seen any of that yet.

122
00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:50,560
Speaker 8: Industrial policy is obviously one thing, but obviously access to

123
00:06:50,600 --> 00:06:53,680
Speaker 8: medicines is also important because you know, if you think

124
00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:57,080
Speaker 8: about where we do our studies and where we invest

125
00:06:57,200 --> 00:07:00,200
Speaker 8: R and D investment, you know, eventually and the of

126
00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:03,320
Speaker 8: all of that, we do want patients in that country

127
00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:06,599
Speaker 8: to have access to medicine. So you know, if we

128
00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:09,360
Speaker 8: spend all the money in research and then patients don't

129
00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:12,360
Speaker 8: benefit in that country, that's very disappointing.

130
00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:17,440
Speaker 2: As Zeneca CFO Aradna Sarin speaking to US about the

131
00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:20,920
Speaker 2: NHS not buying enough of its drugs now. It comes

132
00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:25,280
Speaker 2: after the company's CEO, Pascal Sorrio, issued a warning against

133
00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:29,400
Speaker 2: the use of tariffs yesterday and that the drug makers

134
00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:32,400
Speaker 2: in the US a lobbying the Trump administration to exclude

135
00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:34,920
Speaker 2: medicines from future levies.

136
00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:38,480
Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin is demanding that Russia take control of four

137
00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:41,440
Speaker 1: Ukrainian regions as part of a peace deal to end

138
00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:45,000
Speaker 1: the war. Bloomberg understands the Kremlin mons jurisdiction over the land,

139
00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:48,520
Speaker 1: which it currently doesn't fully occupy as part of the agreement.

140
00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:51,600
Speaker 1: The news is a blow to US President Donald Trump's

141
00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:54,800
Speaker 1: efforts to reach a ceasefire, amid mounting frustration about a

142
00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:59,720
Speaker 1: lack of progress. State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce says negotiations

143
00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:01,560
Speaker 1: have a crucial stage.

144
00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:05,880
Speaker 9: We are now at a time where concrete proposals need

145
00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:09,360
Speaker 9: to be delivered by the two parties on how to

146
00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:12,360
Speaker 9: end this conflict. How we proceed from here is a

147
00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:15,720
Speaker 9: decision that belongs now to the President. If there is

148
00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:20,840
Speaker 9: not progress, we will step back as mediators in this process.

149
00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:25,119
Speaker 1: It's the State Department's Tommy Bruce there. Meanwhile, President Trump

150
00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:28,600
Speaker 1: remains confident a deal on critical minerals will be signed

151
00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:32,360
Speaker 1: with Ukraine, according to the White House. Sources say the agreement,

152
00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:36,160
Speaker 1: which will govern post war plans to exploit the country's

153
00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:39,920
Speaker 1: mineral deposits and rebuild its infrastructure, could be signed as

154
00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:40,920
Speaker 1: soon as this week.

155
00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:44,040
Speaker 2: Those are our top stories for you this morning. Let's

156
00:08:44,040 --> 00:08:46,679
Speaker 2: have a look at the markets then this our mscihed

157
00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:49,280
Speaker 2: Pacific indexes up by half of one percent. Have you

158
00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,040
Speaker 2: got the cost B significantly weak as CSI three hundred

159
00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:55,040
Speaker 2: is also down. Of course, we've seen the S and

160
00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:57,440
Speaker 2: P five hundred up for six days in a row,

161
00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,240
Speaker 2: a total of near eight percent. In terms of gay means.

162
00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:04,120
Speaker 2: But the issues around the trade will really weighing on

163
00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:07,120
Speaker 2: Asian equities. And you've also got a set of big

164
00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:11,160
Speaker 2: earnings out tonight, tech earnings from Meta from Microsoft, so

165
00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:14,040
Speaker 2: then as that one hundred will be in focus. It

166
00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:16,680
Speaker 2: has recovery nearly all of its losses since this second

167
00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:21,880
Speaker 2: of April, just thinking about that disappointment. Then in Asia,

168
00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:24,880
Speaker 2: the China manufacturing PMI slumping, that's the kind of big

169
00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:28,080
Speaker 2: issue there. Looking at the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, it's

170
00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:31,720
Speaker 2: weaker this morning, so a softer dollar, softer pound, the

171
00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:34,360
Speaker 2: euro down a tenth of one percent. Oil prices in

172
00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:37,160
Speaker 2: retreat down one point two percent. Gold also down two

173
00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:40,280
Speaker 2: tents this morning. US stock futures are in the red

174
00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:43,320
Speaker 2: and tenny usls trade at four seventeen in terms of

175
00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:44,360
Speaker 2: those yeals this morning.

176
00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:46,679
Speaker 1: Well in a moment will bring you more on Translator's

177
00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:50,280
Speaker 1: broadside against the Federal Reserve chair and discuss why Swiss

178
00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:54,920
Speaker 1: neutrality threatens to stifle its defense industry. But another story

179
00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:58,319
Speaker 1: that cad Arei this morning about a particularly unusual property

180
00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:05,200
Speaker 1: deal in the arc archipelago of Svalbard. It's in Norwegian territory,

181
00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:08,880
Speaker 1: although governed by a one hundred year old treaty signed

182
00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:12,600
Speaker 1: by some forty five countries, among them Russia, China and

183
00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:15,240
Speaker 1: the US. And there's a plot of land for sales

184
00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:18,080
Speaker 1: about the size of Manhattan, and a group of buyers

185
00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:20,360
Speaker 1: is willing to pay three hundred million euros for it.

186
00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:23,440
Speaker 1: They include Norwegian and international investors and their aim as

187
00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:25,720
Speaker 1: to protect the area from environmental changes.

188
00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:29,160
Speaker 2: Yes, except, of course, this bit of land, along with

189
00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:31,360
Speaker 2: a lot of the Arctic, is now at the center

190
00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:35,760
Speaker 2: of all of this geopolitics and the tensions with the

191
00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:38,240
Speaker 2: US President Donald Trump. He's talked about one is to

192
00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,839
Speaker 2: take over Greenland from Denmark. So the Norwegian government has

193
00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:45,400
Speaker 2: said this sales got to be cleared by US first.

194
00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:47,679
Speaker 2: So it's a pretty fascinating story.

195
00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:48,840
Speaker 7: Of course.

196
00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:53,000
Speaker 2: The area is just full of mountains, fjords, Arctic wildlife

197
00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:57,560
Speaker 2: and mass Frankly, it does, although it's in the complete

198
00:10:57,640 --> 00:10:59,400
Speaker 2: darkness for about four months of the year and then

199
00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:01,240
Speaker 2: you kind of get to the most for the other

200
00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:01,839
Speaker 2: four months.

201
00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:03,760
Speaker 1: So you know, business is bad, business is good. You

202
00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:05,520
Speaker 1: can read more on Bloomberg dot com and you'll find

203
00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:07,320
Speaker 1: a link to the article in our show notes. If

204
00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:09,400
Speaker 1: you're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Podcast.

205
00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:14,160
Speaker 2: Now to President Trump's rally celebrating his one hundredth day

206
00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:17,559
Speaker 2: in office, which saw him tout his harsh immigration enforcement,

207
00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:21,040
Speaker 2: blast China for quote ripping us off, and criticizing the

208
00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:24,560
Speaker 2: Federal Reserve chair. But the President's approval ratings have slumped

209
00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:29,960
Speaker 2: amidst his administration's aggressive pursuit of an America First agenda.

210
00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,959
Speaker 2: Joining us now is our News desk editor Jill Deesis

211
00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,600
Speaker 2: to discuss what did you make of President Trump's rally

212
00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:38,640
Speaker 2: in Michigan and also, of course, his first one hundred

213
00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:40,080
Speaker 2: days back in office.

214
00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:43,120
Speaker 10: That's good morning. Well, I think what you just rattled

215
00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:46,320
Speaker 10: off there is really kind of emblematic of what we

216
00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:48,520
Speaker 10: saw of this rally. It's really kind of the greatest

217
00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:51,640
Speaker 10: hits of all things Trump. You saw a bit of

218
00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:54,840
Speaker 10: him contradicting himself slightly, kind of you know, running into

219
00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:58,520
Speaker 10: you know, defending the tariffs, but then also talking about

220
00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:02,120
Speaker 10: some of these easing measure that he's put forth recently,

221
00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:05,440
Speaker 10: including really just hours before this rally he signed some

222
00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:10,000
Speaker 10: directives easing tariffs on auto part levies for example. So

223
00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:12,280
Speaker 10: I mean he's kind of you know equivocating there. A

224
00:12:12,320 --> 00:12:15,840
Speaker 10: little bit. You also had some criticism of Jerome Powell,

225
00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:18,600
Speaker 10: one of his favorite targets, the FED chair there thrown

226
00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:21,160
Speaker 10: in as well. But really I think the big takeaway

227
00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:24,360
Speaker 10: from this rally is we're one hundred days into the

228
00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:28,559
Speaker 10: Trump presidency. As you mentioned, approval rating with the public

229
00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:31,959
Speaker 10: is down significantly. There is a recent poll showing really

230
00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:34,480
Speaker 10: only around thirty nine percent approval rating or something. I mean,

231
00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:36,520
Speaker 10: we're looking at some of the worst approval ratings of

232
00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:39,600
Speaker 10: either you know, this presidency or his first term in

233
00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:41,839
Speaker 10: office here that Trump is contending with. And then you're

234
00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:45,360
Speaker 10: also setting that against the background of this tariff plan,

235
00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:48,160
Speaker 10: which has you know, created a lot of market turmoil.

236
00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:50,240
Speaker 10: You've got a lot of uncertainty that Trump is trying

237
00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:52,680
Speaker 10: to balance here, and so Trump is really kind of

238
00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:55,400
Speaker 10: using this as a way to you know, kind of

239
00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:57,600
Speaker 10: come out and really just be classic Trump here, which

240
00:12:57,640 --> 00:12:59,839
Speaker 10: is to say, you know, the plan is right, every

241
00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:03,079
Speaker 10: thing's fine, We're doing great, and I think really just

242
00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:05,840
Speaker 10: trying to reassure people there. Obviously, you know, whether that's

243
00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:08,000
Speaker 10: actually effective, I think is a separate question.

244
00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:11,520
Speaker 1: But on the question of the criticism of Jerome Powell, though,

245
00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:13,880
Speaker 1: of course, as you say, this is something that Donald

246
00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:16,640
Speaker 1: Trump has returned to and repeated occasions, but he did

247
00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:19,440
Speaker 1: pull back from previous threats to get rid of the

248
00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:22,280
Speaker 1: Federal Reserve chairman that had spooked markets as well. Does

249
00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:24,280
Speaker 1: it look like we're singing back in that direction?

250
00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:24,920
Speaker 4: High? Serious?

251
00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:25,880
Speaker 1: Is this criticism?

252
00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:28,800
Speaker 10: Yeah? I mean, look, you know, Trump really can't help himself,

253
00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:31,200
Speaker 10: can he. I mean, we were really only about a

254
00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,439
Speaker 10: week or so ago, you know, we heard you know,

255
00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:37,120
Speaker 10: him calling you know, J Powell a loser. Obviously he's

256
00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:41,720
Speaker 10: you know, really he's really hit interest rates really really

257
00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:44,199
Speaker 10: hard here. I mean, you know, it kind of compares,

258
00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:45,959
Speaker 10: I guess to kind of get the full picture here.

259
00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:47,720
Speaker 10: You back up about a week or so ago, we

260
00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:50,760
Speaker 10: know that a lot of Donald Trump's advisors were, you know,

261
00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:53,160
Speaker 10: kind of advising him on the prospect of what would

262
00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:55,559
Speaker 10: it actually look like if you tried to fire J.

263
00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:56,160
Speaker 1: Powell.

264
00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:58,320
Speaker 10: He then came out a few days later and said,

265
00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:00,920
Speaker 10: that's not something that I'm considering. He didn't really you know,

266
00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:04,080
Speaker 10: returned to that level of language at this rally, but

267
00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:06,160
Speaker 10: he is kind of ticking back up and you know,

268
00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:08,760
Speaker 10: criticizing Joan Powell's you know, saying that he's not doing

269
00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:11,080
Speaker 10: a really good job. You know, Trump saying that he

270
00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:13,640
Speaker 10: knows interest rates better than Powell does. So we are

271
00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:16,360
Speaker 10: seeing that return to criticism. But I wouldn't characterize this

272
00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:18,880
Speaker 10: as something that felt like he was really ratcheting up

273
00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:21,000
Speaker 10: the kind of campaign that we saw just a couple

274
00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:21,520
Speaker 10: of weeks ago.

275
00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:26,320
Speaker 2: Meanwhile, those US tarifs at President says China deserves do

276
00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:28,960
Speaker 2: seem to be having a swift and quite deep impact

277
00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:33,480
Speaker 2: on China's factory activity. This data is being really closely washed.

278
00:14:33,800 --> 00:14:35,240
Speaker 2: What do you think of it?

279
00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:37,480
Speaker 10: Yes, well, I think you know, as you were just

280
00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:40,120
Speaker 10: saying a few minutes ago, I mean, just the fact

281
00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:44,200
Speaker 10: that you're seeing that factory activity slip into contraction is

282
00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:47,600
Speaker 10: pretty concerning. I think that you know, what we've been

283
00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:50,360
Speaker 10: hearing from analysts is that this is sort of worse

284
00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:53,240
Speaker 10: than expected when you're weighing just some of that initial

285
00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:56,040
Speaker 10: impact of those one hundred and forty five percent tariffs

286
00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:59,160
Speaker 10: on Chinese products. I mean, you know, when you're digging

287
00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:01,480
Speaker 10: into that data a little bit more, some of the

288
00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:03,760
Speaker 10: worst numbers that I saw in there, I mean, new

289
00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:07,200
Speaker 10: export orders falling to the lowest since December twenty twenty two.

290
00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:10,680
Speaker 10: I mean we're looking at what pandemic era, you know,

291
00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:13,480
Speaker 10: sort of shifts in some of this manufacturing activity. I

292
00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:17,440
Speaker 10: mean that and you looked at those orders in particular,

293
00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:19,840
Speaker 10: recording the biggest drop since April of that year, twenty

294
00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:22,240
Speaker 10: twenty two. And remember that's when Shanghai, the entire city

295
00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:24,040
Speaker 10: of Shanghai was in lockdown. So I mean that's a

296
00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:27,080
Speaker 10: pretty serious and pretty dramatic shift here.

297
00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:27,840
Speaker 6: You know.

298
00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:31,480
Speaker 10: I think at this point, what we've heard from Beijing

299
00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:35,120
Speaker 10: so far is that there are have laid out some

300
00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:38,120
Speaker 10: measures to kind of help exporters. They announced that they

301
00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:40,680
Speaker 10: were going to help them get access to loans make

302
00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:43,200
Speaker 10: things a little bit easier there, but they haven't really

303
00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:45,920
Speaker 10: pulled any kind of big bazooka stimul has I mean,

304
00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:48,120
Speaker 10: you know, talk about this forever, but you know, that

305
00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:52,240
Speaker 10: doesn't really seem like something that China is interested in pursuing,

306
00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:54,240
Speaker 10: at least over the past couple of years. So Chinas

307
00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:56,680
Speaker 10: certainly exercised some caution there, but I do think it

308
00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:59,160
Speaker 10: does kind of suggest a bit of a warning sign there.

309
00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,520
Speaker 10: I would be really on the lookout for other economic data,

310
00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:03,280
Speaker 10: not just out of China, but sort of you know,

311
00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:05,520
Speaker 10: around the world over the next few weeks just to

312
00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:08,480
Speaker 10: see if we can get a better indication of how

313
00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:10,880
Speaker 10: exactly these tariffs are actually starting to take effect. And

314
00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:15,200
Speaker 10: just remember, you know, the reprieved, the recipraal tariffs are

315
00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:17,360
Speaker 10: still on pause at the moment. I mean, it could

316
00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:19,160
Speaker 10: be more economic pain to come for some of these

317
00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:20,160
Speaker 10: countries going forward.

318
00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:23,120
Speaker 2: Jill, thank you so much for being with us this morning.

319
00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:26,400
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's and News Desk editor Jill Desis, thank you.

320
00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,880
Speaker 1: Now to a special report looking at European defense. Switzerland's

321
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:34,640
Speaker 1: neutrality is threatening to stifle it small but symbolically important

322
00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:38,120
Speaker 1: defense industry is a major shift towards European rearmament and

323
00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:40,920
Speaker 1: national security is underway. Joining us now for more is

324
00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:44,160
Speaker 1: our reporter levens Dam, who has been writing about this. Leven,

325
00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:46,440
Speaker 1: great to have you with us. First of all, how

326
00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:49,120
Speaker 1: big is the defense industry in Switzerland and what is

327
00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:50,120
Speaker 1: it making now?

328
00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:52,800
Speaker 5: Good morning, and thank you for having me. Well, at

329
00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:56,080
Speaker 5: least in economic terms, the Swiss defense industries robert tiny

330
00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:59,680
Speaker 5: within the European context. It contributes just over zero point

331
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,360
Speaker 5: two tend to Swiss economic output and employees around fourteen

332
00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:06,520
Speaker 5: thousand people. There are two major groups of firms that

333
00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:10,600
Speaker 5: I should mention big manufacturers that produce entire weapons systems,

334
00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:14,480
Speaker 5: and these include subsidiaries of German grynd Metal and American

335
00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:17,359
Speaker 5: General Dynamics. But then there is also a plethora of

336
00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:20,160
Speaker 5: really small companies that each employee may be a few

337
00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:23,199
Speaker 5: dozen employees, and those mostly focus on the production of

338
00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:27,560
Speaker 5: arms components, mostly for larger European defense producers. And I

339
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:30,960
Speaker 5: think it's also important to mention that the economic significance

340
00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:35,160
Speaker 5: has recently further decreased. Swiss war material exports have dropped

341
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,160
Speaker 5: by thirty percent since an all time i in twenty

342
00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:42,159
Speaker 5: twenty two, exactly because of laws rooted in neutrality that

343
00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:44,440
Speaker 5: restrict Swiss defense exports.

344
00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:47,040
Speaker 2: Just explain a bit about the laws and how they

345
00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:52,600
Speaker 2: restrict things. There has been criticism around blocking some exports

346
00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:53,959
Speaker 2: to Ukraine.

347
00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:57,359
Speaker 5: So I mean basically countries that by weapons have at

348
00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:00,119
Speaker 5: least fifty percent of the value made in switch and

349
00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,240
Speaker 5: are not allowed to re export them to other countries.

350
00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:07,040
Speaker 5: And Swiss firms also aren't allowed to export to war zones.

351
00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:09,639
Speaker 5: And for a long time, other countries didn't care too

352
00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:12,960
Speaker 5: much about these restrictions, and the Swiss government also had

353
00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:16,560
Speaker 5: the powers to grand exceptions if it deemed fitting. But

354
00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:19,560
Speaker 5: then the Swiss parliaments grabbed those powers in a lower

355
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:24,320
Speaker 5: division in late twenty twenty one, so really just months

356
00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:28,320
Speaker 5: before Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine, and ever since

357
00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,200
Speaker 5: the government had to deny multiple requests by European governments

358
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:35,600
Speaker 5: to sin swis mide weapons Ukraine, including Germany and Denmark,

359
00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:39,200
Speaker 5: and that has led to europe Pean countries now systematically

360
00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,840
Speaker 5: avoiding to rely on Swiss arms or components because they

361
00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:46,240
Speaker 5: really don't see Switzerland as a trustworthy supplier anymore.

362
00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,679
Speaker 1: Swiss neutrality has a long history. What are the views

363
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:53,160
Speaker 1: of it now? How are the parliament of the Swiss

364
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:56,440
Speaker 1: government thinking about the defense industry in the current context.

365
00:18:56,800 --> 00:19:00,520
Speaker 5: Well, so the Swiss are increasingly split about Switzerland's the

366
00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,640
Speaker 5: neutrality stands and how far also support for Ukraine should

367
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:06,840
Speaker 5: go with exports. It is actually even more complicated because

368
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:09,520
Speaker 5: it was exactly the left cleaning parties which generally are

369
00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:12,520
Speaker 5: in favor of extending support for Ukraine, and they were

370
00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:15,200
Speaker 5: exactly the ones that pushed through a law that law

371
00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:18,119
Speaker 5: reform that now blocks the arms exports. And at the

372
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:21,159
Speaker 5: same time there is the business friendli Swiss People's Party,

373
00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:24,919
Speaker 5: but that one has exactly pushed for a vote that

374
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:29,080
Speaker 5: seeks to enshrine everlasting Swiss neutrality in the country's constitution.

375
00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:31,639
Speaker 5: At the same time, on the government side, there as

376
00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:35,639
Speaker 5: spoke with multiple agencies and they were all really worried

377
00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:39,120
Speaker 5: about the vanging Swiss defense industry rather from a security

378
00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:43,119
Speaker 5: concern standpoint, and they fear that if Swiss firms are

379
00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:47,640
Speaker 5: cut out of supply chains, that also reduces Switzerland's leverage

380
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:50,920
Speaker 5: to get supplies for its own army from European partners

381
00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 5: in times of crisis.

382
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,679
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

383
00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,800
Speaker 1: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

384
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:04,040
Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,

385
00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

386
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:09,160
Speaker 1: You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio,

387
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,919
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.

388
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 2: Our flagship New York station is also available on your

389
00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:19,479
Speaker 2: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

390
00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,360
Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again

391
00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:24,960
Speaker 1: tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start

392
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:27,120
Speaker 1: your day right here on Bloomberg day Break.

393
00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:31,679
Speaker 2: Europe