1 00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:05,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:08,360 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then 3 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,879 Speaker 1: Brounoo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 4 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:17,320 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 5 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:21,240 Speaker 2: The weekend of strikes also took place alongside a deal 6 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:24,000 Speaker 2: actually being struck on the border, and the text has 7 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 2: been released. The headline on the terminal now Senators reach 8 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 2: deal on Ukraine aid US border, but hurdles remain. And 9 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:33,160 Speaker 2: that's for sure. You've got the Speaker of the House 10 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 2: still calling this doa in the House of Representatives. Even 11 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:40,960 Speaker 2: conservatives and progressives in the Senate are making us wonder 12 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:44,200 Speaker 2: if this can pass the chamber in which it was born. 13 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:45,879 Speaker 2: This is, of course, the deal that we have been 14 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 2: talking about here for weeks, if not months. The final 15 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 2: price tag on this. We finally have the text here 16 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 2: after talking about this for so long. One hundred and 17 00:00:55,400 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 2: eighteen billion dollars. That is more than first estimated, more 18 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 2: than was requested by the White House, and it's supplemental ask. 19 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 2: It cuts the number of migrants eligible for asylum, It 20 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 2: changes the way claims are processed, and everyone's finding something 21 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 2: to hate here. That's where we start our conversation with 22 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:15,959 Speaker 2: Maya McGuinness. Always fascinating to talk to Maya with the 23 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 2: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget where she is president. 24 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:21,960 Speaker 2: It's interesting here Maya, to learn that we can in 25 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 2: fact reach compromise on something. Whether it gets past is 26 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:26,959 Speaker 2: another matter. But is any of this paid for? 27 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:32,039 Speaker 3: Well, we are right now in a moment of lots 28 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:36,479 Speaker 3: of emergency or supplemental spending, which basically means nobody bothers 29 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 3: to pay for it. And there's a good argument that 30 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 3: when you're talking about emergencies, it's not something that needs 31 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 3: to be offset because it's unexpected. It's a one time thing. 32 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 3: You jump in, you find the money later, you deal 33 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 3: with that later. But obviously the border is an emergency 34 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 3: in terms of how big of a problem it is, 35 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 3: but it is not something we haven't known about. So 36 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 3: there is a lot of emergency spending right now on 37 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 3: the agenda, border Ukraine, Israel, all sorts of different things 38 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 3: that they are contemplating. None of these things would be offset. 39 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:08,839 Speaker 3: They would add to the national debt. And I would 40 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:10,679 Speaker 3: say that at a time when the debt is as 41 00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 3: bad as it is even legitimate emergencies, we should try 42 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:17,920 Speaker 3: to offset those costs of a reasonable amount of time, 43 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:21,079 Speaker 3: because debt is debt, and we really we've got to 44 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,519 Speaker 3: deal with the emergencies that are piling up in the 45 00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 3: world right now, but we also have to deal with 46 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:28,560 Speaker 3: the emergency of the national debt, and you do that by. 47 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 2: Paying for things because it is its own emergency. Mia 48 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 2: mcguinnis debt is debt, You're right about that. Now, I 49 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 2: see Speaker Johnson who doesn't like this bill and says 50 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 2: it won't even get a vote. Steve Scalise said that 51 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 2: he is planning a vote this week Maya on a 52 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:50,239 Speaker 2: seventeen billion dollar standalone Israeli aid package. Remembering he did 53 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:53,399 Speaker 2: this at one point and there were offsets that were 54 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 2: coming out of enhanced funding for the IRS. It appears 55 00:02:57,440 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 2: there are none here. The Freedom Caucus is unhappy about it. 56 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:03,760 Speaker 2: So is that little honeymoon over now? The Speaker of 57 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 2: the House is putting bills on the floor that aren't 58 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:06,360 Speaker 2: paid for. 59 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:09,840 Speaker 4: Well, this was a complicated one. 60 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 3: So when they came out and said they were going 61 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 3: to pay for the Israeli funding, that was really a 62 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 3: great sign of understanding. They are very important things we 63 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:20,239 Speaker 3: have to do. Important things are worth paying for. There's 64 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:23,080 Speaker 3: an important caveat on this one, though, which is repealing 65 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 3: the money for the IRS doesn't actually save money. 66 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:28,920 Speaker 4: It makes the deficit larger. 67 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,359 Speaker 3: Because all of the experts who have evaluated this say 68 00:03:31,400 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 3: that a dollar additional dollar for the IRS actually generates. 69 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 4: More than that in terms of closing. 70 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 3: The tax gap or the amount of taxes that are 71 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 3: owed by corporation, small businesses, the well off that aren't paid. 72 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 3: This is probably the only program that you will ever 73 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:50,200 Speaker 3: hear me say actually could pay for itself. So when 74 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 3: you appeal IRS funding, that would be scored as making 75 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 3: the deficit worse. So I loved the principle of let's 76 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 3: pay for it the one policy they picked to do. 77 00:03:58,440 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 3: So I don't think really he was the right one. 78 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 3: But your question is more about politically, what does this mean. 79 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 3: I think we're in a different situation this speaker. I 80 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:09,920 Speaker 3: think he has more leeway. I think that the members 81 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 3: of his conference may disagree on specifics, but they understand 82 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 3: how difficult this is and they don't want to go 83 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:18,039 Speaker 3: through another exercise of kicking out the speaker. 84 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:20,360 Speaker 4: So I think he's communicating with him and trying to 85 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 4: figure out what to do. 86 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 3: But this is really about House versus Senate and showing 87 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:26,840 Speaker 3: who's going to have the upper hand and creating what 88 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 3: the agenda is for what emergency supplementals move forward, and 89 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:31,720 Speaker 3: what the format of those bills are. 90 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 2: We're going to have a lot more on the contents 91 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 2: of this border deal and break it down coming up 92 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 2: with our panel a little bit later on this hour. 93 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 2: But when I look around at what's happening here Maya 94 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 2: and you're looking at the same calendar, I am there's 95 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 2: going to be discord apparently a lot of handwringing and 96 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:53,720 Speaker 2: gnashing of teeth over this. But we have less than 97 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 2: a month to figure out how to keep the government 98 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:59,159 Speaker 2: from shutting down in March. And there are a couple 99 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 2: of other issues that need to be handled as well, 100 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 2: whether it's FAA or Faiza. We've got this tax deal 101 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 2: that was passed last week that may not see the 102 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:09,480 Speaker 2: light of day. I guess I'm wondering if you worry 103 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 2: that this border debate with Ukraine and Israel attached bogs 104 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 2: us down on a level where we can't get anything 105 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 2: else done. Are we going to shut down in less 106 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 2: than a month. 107 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:21,480 Speaker 4: Well, listen, I worry about everything. 108 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 3: There's lots to worry about, but I think there's actually 109 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 3: capacity to deal with emergency supplementals, the border tax deals, 110 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:34,040 Speaker 3: and funding of government if we work efficiently in these things. 111 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 4: The problem is that. 112 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 3: There is a very small group of people who are 113 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 3: really rolling up their sleeves and working on each of 114 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 3: these issues, and then a lot of members in the 115 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:43,920 Speaker 3: House and the Senate kind of sitting on the sidelines 116 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 3: waiting to see what happened so we can work in 117 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 3: this very differently. 118 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 4: The process is not conducive to getting things done. 119 00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:53,039 Speaker 3: But to go to your first point, which is so important, 120 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 3: we are one third of the way through the fiscal year. 121 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 3: We have not passed a bundt, we have not funded 122 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 3: the government, and from everything I can see, we are 123 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:08,280 Speaker 3: doing very little to move those appropriations bills forward. I 124 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 3: was really impressed when the Republicans were saying, we don't 125 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 3: want another omnibus. That's where you hide all sorts of 126 00:06:13,880 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 3: unpaid for legislation. 127 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 4: Sure, they wanted to go through. 128 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 3: The actual act of budgeting, and I think calling for 129 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:21,919 Speaker 3: that's very important, but I just haven't seen any signs 130 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 3: that as we are only four weeks away from that deadline, 131 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 3: there's any progress being made on coming up those appropriations 132 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 3: bills and importantly working out the differences between the House 133 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 3: and the Senate, because the conversations I'm having right now, 134 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 3: tensions between those bodies are also running very. 135 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 2: High, which makes me wonder. I have to ask you 136 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 2: if at some point here maya is it more likely 137 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:48,360 Speaker 2: that Joe Biden's State of the Union will be postponed 138 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 2: because of a shutdown or canceled, or is it more 139 00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 2: likely that he'll give that speech but Mike Johnson will 140 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:55,360 Speaker 2: not be sitting behind him. 141 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 4: Oh boy, that's a good one. 142 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 3: Well, first off, I each of the could have been 143 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 3: shut down moments. I didn't think we were going to 144 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 3: shut down, and I was pretty confident. I'm not quite 145 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:08,919 Speaker 3: as confident this time. I don't think we're going to 146 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 3: shut down. I don't think it's in anybody's interest, and 147 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 3: it's a very important political year where I think people 148 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 3: are understanding that. But there's a risk this time that 149 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 3: there wasn't last time, because I don't think they'll be 150 00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 3: further continuing resolutions and there is a lot of resistance 151 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 3: to one big funding or a couple big funding bills, 152 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 3: that kind of paper over the details. 153 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 4: But I think we will. 154 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 3: See the state of the Union. I think that the 155 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 3: speaker will be there. I think it will be a political. 156 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 4: And contentious state of the Union. But I think it 157 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 4: will go ahead as planned. 158 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 2: On the date, and that I think will just go 159 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 2: ahead and call progress if that happens. Mayam Aguinnis, I 160 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 2: have to ask you about a big story here at 161 00:07:48,400 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 2: that say you'd better believe it. I want to throw 162 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 2: a big log on the fire while I have you 163 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 2: in a couple of minutes that we have less than 164 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 2: the commentary that I saw you writing at the Post 165 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 2: and couriers. Social Security is in trouble is the headline. 166 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 2: Most Canada won't admit it. This is for sure, Maya. 167 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 2: We've been talking about this a lot in our campaign coverage. 168 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 2: In fact, an interview that I had with Nicki Haley 169 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 2: ended up being part of a Trump ad because she 170 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 2: dared to answer a question about raising the age for 171 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 2: eligibility for Social Security. Your point in this column is 172 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 2: well taken considering the fact that no one will touch this. 173 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 2: It's still in al Gore's lock box somewhere. Will we 174 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:27,120 Speaker 2: be able to have this conversation after the presidential campaign. 175 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's what I'm really worried about. 176 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 3: And I've been actually quite impressed with all of the 177 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:34,679 Speaker 3: coverage that you all are putting out there. Because this 178 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:38,079 Speaker 3: is this issue that is so political and gets politicized 179 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 3: and demagogued, and people just are outright. 180 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:43,960 Speaker 4: Not telling the truth. It's very difficult. 181 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 3: For in a campaign cycle for the policies to get coverage. 182 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 3: And I have to say that I have thought Nicki 183 00:08:50,040 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 3: Haley has talked about this issue. She's talked about some 184 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 3: of the things that she would do that would actually 185 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:58,120 Speaker 3: close the solvency gap. And while you've had a lot 186 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:01,440 Speaker 3: of other candidates, including both President Trump and President Biden, 187 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:04,560 Speaker 3: talking about what they won't do, the bottom line is 188 00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 3: Social Security and Medicare have trust funds that are going 189 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 3: to become insolvent. 190 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 4: Nobody likes it. 191 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:13,720 Speaker 3: Everybody who paid into the program does not appreciate the 192 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 3: fact that these are structurally imbalanced. But there are lots 193 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 3: of reasons for why, and the end result is we're 194 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 3: going to have to make some changes. 195 00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 4: There are ways we can do this that. 196 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:26,079 Speaker 3: Will protect people who depend on the program that make 197 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 3: a lot of changes for that start in the longer run, 198 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:32,559 Speaker 3: so people have time to plan younger people, not current retirees. 199 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,880 Speaker 3: But the more they demagogue, the candidates who do demogogue, 200 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 3: the more they do exactly what we're difficult going to 201 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:39,679 Speaker 3: be to fix this program. 202 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 2: Come back and talk to this when we can talk 203 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 2: about solutions. Maya mcguinnis, this is Bloomberg. 204 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken 205 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 206 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:59,720 Speaker 1: royd Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen. 207 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:02,680 Speaker 1: I have on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York 208 00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:06,079 Speaker 1: station just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 209 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:10,439 Speaker 5: We also have to talk about something the UK has 210 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 5: been involved in with the US in recent weeks, which 211 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 5: is strikes in the Middle East. We've of course seen 212 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 5: a multitude of them over the weekend. And joining us 213 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 5: now as General David Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute 214 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:23,199 Speaker 5: for Aerospace Studies and of course a former US Air 215 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 5: Force retired lieutenant general. So Lieutenant General, thank you so 216 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 5: much for joining us. If you could just react to 217 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 5: what we have seen develop over the weekend, the actions 218 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 5: the US has taken thus far, how escalatory in nature 219 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 5: were they to you? 220 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 6: Well, first, Joe and Kayley, thanks for having me to 221 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:46,679 Speaker 6: join into this very important discussion. The bottom line up 222 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 6: front is that that airstrikes has past Friday against the 223 00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 6: Iranian militia groups. We're an appropriate response, and quite frankly, 224 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 6: it's good to hear that they're the first part of 225 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 6: a series of operations will continue to degrade Iranian militias 226 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 6: that are attacking US forces. 227 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 7: This is not a one and done kind of attack. 228 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 6: Iranian proxies in the area are numerous and robust, and frankly, 229 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 6: as I mentioned, it's about time. 230 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:20,199 Speaker 7: It's well past. 231 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 6: Time that the United States signify the importance of responding 232 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:29,600 Speaker 6: to the kinds of aggression that its forces are facing 233 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:30,200 Speaker 6: in the region. 234 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 2: I want to hear about some of the choices that 235 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 2: the Pentagon made here. General, knowing that you flew the 236 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 2: F fifteen, we saw b ones fly around the world 237 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 2: from basis here in the US to take part in 238 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:45,560 Speaker 2: that initial strike on Friday, saw the Navy get involved 239 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:49,439 Speaker 2: with F eighteen's off the USS Eisenhower. Over the course 240 00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:53,079 Speaker 2: of the weekend, some cruise missiles have been used here. 241 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:55,679 Speaker 2: What do you make about the selections of hardware. How 242 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:56,440 Speaker 2: effective was it? 243 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:02,520 Speaker 6: Well, first, you know, the military commands in the region 244 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 6: are still assessing impact. 245 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:07,199 Speaker 7: But if you look at the use of the. 246 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:10,439 Speaker 6: B One, which many people are wondering, why did you 247 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 6: do that and launch it from the United States? 248 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:15,719 Speaker 7: I tell you that first it. 249 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 6: Induced a degree of surprise with respect to adversaries in 250 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 6: the region. Second, it's an aircraft that has a very 251 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 6: large precision payload. In other words, it can drop many 252 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:33,320 Speaker 6: weapons from one platform and stay airborne for long periods 253 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 6: of time. And finally, it also signaled that the United 254 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 6: States can project power without local basing. Our US based 255 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 6: bombers can reach. 256 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 7: Anywhere in the world in a matter of hours. It 257 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 7: doesn't take weeks or months to do so. 258 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 6: So, by the way, as you mentioned over the weekend, 259 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:56,440 Speaker 6: but even on that strike on Friday, the b Ones 260 00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:58,680 Speaker 6: were not the only aircraft. 261 00:12:58,040 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 7: That were used. 262 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 6: Air Force aircraft are deployed to the Middle East and 263 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:06,000 Speaker 6: they were also part of the attacks that you saw 264 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 6: on Friday. 265 00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 5: Well, Luchdrum, you mentioned the projection of power on the 266 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 5: part of the US. How much power is projected if 267 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:17,719 Speaker 5: the signal being sent is that the US is reluctant 268 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 5: to directly strike Iran in its own territories. The US 269 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 5: giving too much away here in terms of what it 270 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:26,959 Speaker 5: is not willing to do, what power it will not utilize. 271 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:31,680 Speaker 6: Kaylee, that's a wonderful question. Let me speak to a 272 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 6: minute or for a moment about deterrence, and let me 273 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:39,959 Speaker 6: remind your audience that the way one deters a wider 274 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 6: war is not by saying that you don't want a 275 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:46,839 Speaker 6: wider war or that we won't strike inside Iran, but 276 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:49,960 Speaker 6: by making sure Iran understands that. 277 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:52,360 Speaker 7: If they and their proxies continue. 278 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:57,200 Speaker 6: Attacks on US personnel, then they can expect disastrous consequences. 279 00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:01,840 Speaker 6: In other words, deterrence is achieved by instilling in the 280 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 6: minds of the Iranian leadership sufficient uncertainty of achieving their 281 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 6: objectives so that they decide not to continue their attacks 282 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 6: due to the potential consequences. So I'm afraid that attacks 283 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 6: on US forces in the region won't stop until Aron 284 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 6: understands that their critical interest are at stake. So the 285 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 6: administration has to stop telling our enemies what the US 286 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 6: is not going to do. Is that only will encourage 287 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:38,040 Speaker 6: them to continue their attacks. So I got to tell you, 288 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 6: it's very frustrating, and frankly, the kind of attacks you 289 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:46,160 Speaker 6: saw on Friday and follow on the weekend are ones 290 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:50,440 Speaker 6: that should have been conducted when attacks against US forces commenced. 291 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 7: Back last year. 292 00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 6: That would have increased the probability of deterring the four 293 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 6: months of attacks on US forces since then. 294 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 2: Well, are you taking them at their work here? We 295 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 2: were speaking with Michael Knights a couple of days ago. 296 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 2: Generally he said, we are out of runs on the 297 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 2: escalation ladder. If this doesn't work in say, a couple 298 00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:10,960 Speaker 2: of weeks and we're still playing with this, is a 299 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 2: strike against Iran out of the question. 300 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 6: Well, no, it shouldn't be out of the question, and 301 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 6: quite frankly, as I just said, we shouldn't be telling 302 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 6: or telegraphing what we may or may not be doing. 303 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 7: What I tell you. 304 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:30,800 Speaker 6: Is that actions directly against Iran will be fundamental to 305 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 6: halt their continued aggression and the aggression by their clients. 306 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 7: Now, that action can take many forms. 307 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 6: It can be lethal, non lethal, economic, diplomatic deterrent, or 308 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 6: combination of all of these. And while I don't want 309 00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 6: to get into specifics in terms of what I would target, 310 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 6: because all that does is a the Iranians. I believe 311 00:15:57,280 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 6: that it would be wise to initiate full up sanctions 312 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:07,240 Speaker 6: on Iran against all forms of their economic income, particularly 313 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:12,480 Speaker 6: they're oil exports, and then if necessary, direct attacks against 314 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 6: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard core leadership. They're key essential systems 315 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:21,920 Speaker 6: which allow them to function, their infrastructure, their personnel, and 316 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 6: they're deployed forces. And again without getting into specifics, those 317 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 6: are some general areas that Iran needs to be put 318 00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 6: on notice. Are libel to be struck and that may have. 319 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 7: The effect of deterring the Iranians. 320 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 6: But we also have to be ready to back up 321 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 6: these statements. So we're not I mean, Michael's a friend 322 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,040 Speaker 6: of mine, but I have to tell you no, we're 323 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 6: not anywhere close to getting to the last rung in 324 00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:56,240 Speaker 6: the escalation ladder. 325 00:16:57,320 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 5: Well, of course, when we're thinking about rungs and ladder 326 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 5: here you also there is the latter in terms of 327 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 5: how financing from Iran goes to these different proxy groups. 328 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:09,240 Speaker 5: As we talk here about deterring Iran, are we assuming 329 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:12,160 Speaker 5: that the connection between Iran and its proxies are strong 330 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 5: enough that that directly translates or is there a certain 331 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 5: degree of control that Tran, even if it decided it 332 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:21,400 Speaker 5: wanted to, cannot exercise over some of these groups. 333 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:27,439 Speaker 6: And now again another great question. You know, the short 334 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 6: answer is complex, but that's why I said that with 335 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:36,639 Speaker 6: respect to deterrence, you know, we have to keep the 336 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:42,480 Speaker 6: issue of actions directly against the government of Iran on 337 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:48,760 Speaker 6: the table. Only when they understand that their critical interests 338 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:54,359 Speaker 6: are threatened, will they pull back the throttles on the 339 00:17:54,400 --> 00:18:01,239 Speaker 6: aggression that they may in fact be orchestrating. Yes, to 340 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 6: a degree, there is some independence of these proxy groups, 341 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:13,160 Speaker 6: but these proxy groups rely one hundred percent on Iran 342 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:15,199 Speaker 6: for their military capabilities. 343 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,879 Speaker 5: All right, Lieutenant General, thank you so much for joining us. 344 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 5: We really appreciate your time. That was Lieutenant General David Deptula, 345 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:26,200 Speaker 5: who is now Dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. 346 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:27,480 Speaker 5: We really appreciate your time. 347 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 348 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:37,719 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then 349 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 1: Broud Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 350 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:46,640 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. I'll watch us live on YouTube. 351 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 5: Welcome back, indeed to Balance of Power on both Bloomberg 352 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 5: Television and Radio here in Washington. We've talked at length 353 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,840 Speaker 5: Joe about the politics around the border deal, the text 354 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 5: of which was just released yesterday. Politics really defines the 355 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 5: name of the game right now. Less so the actual 356 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 5: policy you were running through it just a moment ago. 357 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 5: The changes to asylum and parole authorities, the sheer number 358 00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:09,639 Speaker 5: that would be allowed in before President Biden would have 359 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,159 Speaker 5: to use the authority to shut things down. There is 360 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 5: real policy substance here. It's just a question of how 361 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 5: much that actually matters. 362 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 2: I'm just wondering how many people are getting to the 363 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:19,800 Speaker 2: point of reading it, because minds seem to be made 364 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 2: up last week based on leaks and Facebook reports, social 365 00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:27,880 Speaker 2: media Trump tweets because these were considered out of reach 366 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:30,880 Speaker 2: for Republicans until very recent history. Kayley, and it looks 367 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:32,400 Speaker 2: like they might let it. 368 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,359 Speaker 5: Go well dead on arrival in the house. That's what 369 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,359 Speaker 5: we're hearing from the world leadership. So maybe you just 370 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:40,439 Speaker 5: don't even catch it in the first place, you just 371 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 5: don't touch it at all, less so letting go. But 372 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,160 Speaker 5: the fact of the matter remains, the policy we're talking 373 00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 5: about is about what happens when people arrive here when 374 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 5: they're actually at the border, whether they're let in, whether 375 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:53,640 Speaker 5: they're granted asylum, what happens in the United States. There's 376 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,439 Speaker 5: also the really important question about why the people are 377 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 5: arriving here in the first place, where they're coming from. 378 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:01,560 Speaker 5: We are on this conversation. We want to bring in 379 00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:05,120 Speaker 5: now Maria Franda Bazmoski. She's deputy director of the Adrian 380 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:08,680 Speaker 5: Ash Latin America Center at the Atlantic Council. Maria, thank 381 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,080 Speaker 5: you so much for being with us as we consider 382 00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 5: what is primarily a border measure, not necessarily immigration policy 383 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:20,400 Speaker 5: changes as a whole. Here are these policy initiatives doing 384 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:23,879 Speaker 5: enough to address the actual root cause of why we 385 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 5: have a border issue in the first place. 386 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 8: Thank you so much for having me. And I think 387 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:32,640 Speaker 8: that that's a great question to kick off the conversation. 388 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:37,360 Speaker 8: Very few things are being done from a policy perspective 389 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:41,639 Speaker 8: to address what is pushing thousands of people to the 390 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:47,560 Speaker 8: US Mexico border every single day. I think that you'll 391 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 8: hear in the halls of Washington, DC that you know, 392 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 8: there's a crisis at the border, and I don't disagree 393 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:59,359 Speaker 8: with that. There's certainly a security, humanitarian, economic crisis, but 394 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 8: it doesn't start at the US border. It starts three 395 00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:08,439 Speaker 8: thousand miles south. We're seeing a huge security crisis in 396 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 8: Latin America. Weeks ago, we saw in Ecuador on Life 397 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:18,840 Speaker 8: TV just anchors being held at gunpoint, and we're seeing 398 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:23,520 Speaker 8: that across Latin America. The whole security situation is deteriorating 399 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:28,080 Speaker 8: in the countries, and that is one of the top 400 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 8: three reasons that migrants cite as the reasons that are 401 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 8: pushing them out of their countries. 402 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:35,760 Speaker 7: Well. 403 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:41,680 Speaker 2: Among the provisions in this deal includes something that Republicans 404 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 2: have been asking for for some time, new expedited removal 405 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 2: authority for migrants who do not qualify for asylum, and 406 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 2: that definition of asylum, as we've been discussing, is being tightened. 407 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 2: We heard from one of the negotiators, Cirsten Cinema, that 408 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 2: they will be sent back home what happens when they 409 00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:58,200 Speaker 2: get there. 410 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,679 Speaker 8: One of the things that this bill, as I was 411 00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:05,120 Speaker 8: looking through it, that I think is worth pointing out 412 00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:08,520 Speaker 8: in relation to your question, Joe, is that there's at 413 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:13,200 Speaker 8: least four billion dollars that would be allocated to the 414 00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:19,400 Speaker 8: Department of State that would be roughly divided into fifty 415 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 8: percent of that would be to help build capacity in 416 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 8: the countries to accept and reintegrate individuals that have been 417 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:31,840 Speaker 8: removed from the United States. I think that that is essential. 418 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,920 Speaker 8: I think that the countries in Nine America really need 419 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 8: that kind of support. And then the other half of 420 00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:42,119 Speaker 8: those four billion dollars, four hundred million dollars, sorry, is 421 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:46,840 Speaker 8: going to be, if this bill were to pass, allocated 422 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 8: to address some of those root costes that are pushing 423 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 8: Latin Americans, lots of Central Americans to come to the 424 00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 8: US border. 425 00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:58,400 Speaker 5: Yeah, if it were to pass, is a good point 426 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:00,160 Speaker 5: to me, because it looks, sorry now that this bill 427 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,680 Speaker 5: will not in fact be passing. But when it comes 428 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 5: to asylum specifically, something else you hear from, specifically Republicans 429 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:11,399 Speaker 5: who have pushed back against having two expansive asylum allowances 430 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 5: here in the US is that these migrants should be 431 00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:17,920 Speaker 5: applying for asylum in the other countries through which they're passing. 432 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 5: Just with your knowledge of Latin America, how hard, how 433 00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:25,480 Speaker 5: difficult is it to attain real asylum in these other 434 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 5: countries that are not the United States. 435 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:33,080 Speaker 8: I think, unfortunately, the infrastructure throughout Lne America for seeking 436 00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:38,040 Speaker 8: asylum is not very robust. For example, in Costa Rica 437 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,680 Speaker 8: after twenty eighteen when there were huge crises and manifestations 438 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:47,680 Speaker 8: in Iconawa, the system was very quickly overwhelmed, and Costa 439 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:51,960 Speaker 8: Rica is arguably one of the most well equipped countries 440 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:57,360 Speaker 8: in the region to support assylees and applications. The other 441 00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:03,040 Speaker 8: thing to note is that these migrants, many times when 442 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 8: you talk to them, you realize that leaving their countries 443 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 8: is their last resort. They don't want to leave their homes, 444 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,359 Speaker 8: but they're being threatened, they're being extorted, they don't have 445 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:17,119 Speaker 8: economic opportunities. And so going back to the previous question, 446 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,080 Speaker 8: I think that this bill again, if it were to pass, 447 00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:24,320 Speaker 8: would maybe potentially be a game changer if it could 448 00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,560 Speaker 8: help address some of those key factors that are pushing 449 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,959 Speaker 8: people out and then creating this situation at the border. 450 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:36,280 Speaker 2: Not a mention of Dreamers here or for that matter, 451 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:41,280 Speaker 2: any undocumented immigrants already living in the country, should there be. 452 00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:43,440 Speaker 7: Well. 453 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:48,480 Speaker 8: I think that this is a comprehensive effort to start 454 00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:52,880 Speaker 8: to address a system that is broken. That you can 455 00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:57,120 Speaker 8: say that from I think any point in this country. 456 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,000 Speaker 8: And I think that this is kind of low hanging fruit. 457 00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:05,479 Speaker 8: It's we can't deny. This is a political year, of course, 458 00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:10,440 Speaker 8: It's also sorry elections are happening in Mexico this year too, 459 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 8: So I think that that's an interesting dynamic that is 460 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 8: shaping some of the substance that is in this in 461 00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:17,560 Speaker 8: this bill. 462 00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 5: And finally, as we talk about the idea that this 463 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:23,920 Speaker 5: bill may not pass, what a lot of Republicans are 464 00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:25,919 Speaker 5: calling for instead is for the president to just use 465 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,720 Speaker 5: authority that they argue he still has or he already 466 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:30,919 Speaker 5: has without Congress granting it, to just shut down the 467 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,080 Speaker 5: border entirely. If the US were to do that, Maria, 468 00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,480 Speaker 5: what would that realistically look like what happens on the 469 00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,440 Speaker 5: other side of the border. 470 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:44,719 Speaker 8: Well, you would need Mexico's cooperation, and President Lopez Roelo 471 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:48,440 Speaker 8: in Mexico has in the past been willing to work, 472 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:55,119 Speaker 8: especially with former President Trump, on those on receiving individuals 473 00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:59,560 Speaker 8: who have been removed. It's an election, yeer, his main 474 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:04,040 Speaker 8: the candidate for the opposing party, So ChIL Galvez is 475 00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:09,919 Speaker 8: in BC today and politics in the US Mexico. Sorry, 476 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:15,920 Speaker 8: immigration in the US Mexican relationship is like a It's 477 00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:21,960 Speaker 8: a tricky thing and I don't know how the president 478 00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:24,879 Speaker 8: might receive this request. 479 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:32,040 Speaker 2: Maria, thank you for joining us. It's great analysis in 480 00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,840 Speaker 2: the hours following the release of this text. We appreciate 481 00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:38,520 Speaker 2: your insights here from your perch at the Atlantic Council. 482 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 2: Maria Fernande Buzzmaski, Kaylee, There's going to be a lot 483 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,719 Speaker 2: more time to decipher this, but we're getting some interesting 484 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:47,000 Speaker 2: reactions here today already. 485 00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 6: Yeah. 486 00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:51,280 Speaker 5: Absolutely, Although to her point, we're talking about what happens 487 00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 5: if the bill passes. That is still a massive if. 488 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:56,360 Speaker 5: Is the reality here in Washington today it looks like a. 489 00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,639 Speaker 2: Good get a vote Wednesday. We'll find out together here 490 00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:04,080 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 491 00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 492 00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:10,520 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 493 00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:13,840 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 494 00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:15,600 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.