1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,720 Speaker 1: I'm k newt Gingrich. Please watch Journey to America, my 2 00:00:02,800 --> 00:00:06,840 Speaker 1: new documentary in PBS about nine remarkable individuals who strengthen 3 00:00:06,920 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: our country through their pursuit of the American dream. From 4 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:14,520 Speaker 1: Albert Einstein to Hetty Lamar to Zelma Kalilazad. We explore 5 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 1: how individual stories helped shape our national identity. Watch Journey 6 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:22,799 Speaker 1: to America, premiering Tuesday, January fourteenth to ten pm Eastern, 7 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 1: nine pm Central on PBS and the PBS app. On 8 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: this episode of Newtsworld, a speeding pickup truck drove into 9 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 1: a crowd of people celebrating the new year on Bourbon 10 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 1: Street in New Orleans on Wednesday, killing fourteen people and 11 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 1: injuring thirty more. According to the FBI, the pickup truck 12 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 1: was driven by shamsud Din Jabbar, an American citizen from 13 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: Texas who served in the US Army. Jabbar had posted 14 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 1: five videos on his Facebook account in the hours before 15 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 1: the attack. Jabbar's truck had a black banner of the 16 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 1: Islamic State Group or ISIS. The incident is now being 17 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 1: considered a terrorist inspired attack and has raised the question 18 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 1: of how at risk the United States is to lone 19 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:17,479 Speaker 1: wolf actors inspired by ISIS or other militant groups here 20 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 1: to discuss ISIS in America. I'm really pleased to welcome 21 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 1: my guest, Adam Weinstein, Deputy director of the Middle East 22 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:39,320 Speaker 1: Program at the Quincy Institute. Adam, welcome, and thank you 23 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:40,759 Speaker 1: for joining me again on News World. 24 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 2: Thanks for having me back. 25 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 1: I'm curious you how people suddenly are startled by what 26 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 1: happened in New Orleans on New Year's Day and they're 27 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 1: looking a lot more at potential links to ISIS. Can 28 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 1: you walk us through both what happened and how this 29 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 1: incident stands out in the context of domestic terrorism. 30 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 2: Well, what happened is he rammed his vehicle down Bourbon 31 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 2: Street and managed to kill fourteen people. I'm not an 32 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 2: ISIS expert per se in terms of their tactics, but 33 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 2: that's been a favorite tactic of ISIS attackers. You saw 34 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 2: that in Germany, especially at the height of the Caliphate. 35 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 2: They would use trucks to ram through Christmas markets in Germany. 36 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:20,800 Speaker 2: That was one of their favorite tactics. It wasn't a 37 00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:25,239 Speaker 2: very sophisticated attack, but then again, typically ISIS attacks aren't 38 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 2: that sophisticated. In fact, that's one of their advantages, which 39 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 2: is that the terminology that sometimes used is a very 40 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:35,800 Speaker 2: short flash to bang time in that you recruit an individual, 41 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 2: you come up with some sort of rudimentary plot that 42 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 2: will quickly kill civilians, and it's not that difficult to 43 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 2: pull off, and there's a very short lead time before 44 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:48,960 Speaker 2: when the individual is recruited and they actually carry out 45 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:51,280 Speaker 2: the attack, and it's an attack that you know, not 46 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 2: too many things can go wrong with it. It's pretty simple. 47 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 2: You drive a vehicle through a crowded area and you 48 00:02:57,200 --> 00:02:58,239 Speaker 2: are going to kill people. 49 00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,800 Speaker 1: Talk for a little bit about ISIS itself and why 50 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 1: he would carry the ISIS flag. 51 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,400 Speaker 2: Well, I think there's still an investigation going on as 52 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:11,680 Speaker 2: to how networked this attack was and what that means 53 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 2: is did he have an ISIS handler, was he actively recruited, 54 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 2: or was he simply a lone wolf who was inspired 55 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 2: by the ISIS ideology. In isis's most recent publication, they 56 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 2: didn't even mention the attack as far as I know, 57 00:03:25,560 --> 00:03:28,680 Speaker 2: although they might mention it in the next publication. They 58 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 2: have various publications that they release routinely, and they'll take 59 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 2: credit for certain attacks, but if it's a networked attack, 60 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 2: I think that's a little more concerning because it means 61 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 2: that an ISIS handler was able to reach him, either 62 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 2: via social media or in person, and they were able 63 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 2: to recruit him. If it's a lone wolf attack, that's 64 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 2: part and parcel of the routine violence we see in 65 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 2: this country from individuals that either are disaffected or may 66 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 2: have mental health problems. So I think it's going to 67 00:03:56,080 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 2: be interesting to see ultimately what the investigation revealed. But 68 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 2: in short, ISIS is a terrorist group that came on 69 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 2: the scene in twenty thirteen. In twenty fourteen with the 70 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 2: capture of Iraqi and Syrian cities and ultimately established a 71 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 2: caliphate that spanned from northern Iraq to northeastern Syria. At 72 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 2: its height, it controlled Mosl and Raka, and then ultimately 73 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 2: the de ISIS campaign, which included the US, the Iraqi military, 74 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 2: even Iran and Iran back militias for that matter, was 75 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:31,280 Speaker 2: able to dismantle their caliphate. But they've been very effective 76 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 2: at bringing in other groups that are regional and being 77 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 2: able to essentially act like a franchise, so they have ISKP. 78 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 2: For example, there's ISIS activity in the Sahel in Africa 79 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,719 Speaker 2: and also in West Africa, and then they've been effective 80 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:48,560 Speaker 2: at recruiting individuals in Europe and the United States to 81 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:50,160 Speaker 2: carry out these lone wolf attacks. 82 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 1: What is it do you think powers and magnifies a 83 00:04:56,440 --> 00:05:00,640 Speaker 1: movement like this so that it attracts all of these 84 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 1: different kinds of people who are sort of spontaneous. You know, 85 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 1: they haven't gone through basic training, they haven't been propagandized 86 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 1: in isolation, but somehow they're attracted to ISIS and they 87 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 1: engage and violent activities on behalf of a movement which 88 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:19,760 Speaker 1: is really very very loose net. 89 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:22,799 Speaker 2: I mean, I think it is the decentralization of ISIS. 90 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 2: That is where their power comes from. If you look 91 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 2: at al Qaeda, which of course literally meant the base, 92 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:30,680 Speaker 2: it did operate like that. It was a top down 93 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 2: organization in many ways. It initially conducted training inside countries 94 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:39,560 Speaker 2: like Afghanistan, and then they would have extremely sophisticated plots 95 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:42,080 Speaker 2: like nine to eleven that they would plan for months 96 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:45,320 Speaker 2: or years at a time, and the kinds of recruits 97 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 2: they brought in to carry out those plots were absolutely 98 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:51,080 Speaker 2: dedicated to the movement and were part of the movement. 99 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 2: And we're part of the movement for long periods of time, 100 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 2: and if you looked at their propaganda, they would issue 101 00:05:56,080 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 2: these long speeches and manifestos, but it was as interactive. 102 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:01,360 Speaker 1: Now. 103 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 2: That might have been because they formed before the social 104 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 2: media age. If you look at ISIS, they're much better 105 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:10,800 Speaker 2: at social media. They are much better at approaching individuals 106 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:14,159 Speaker 2: online and engaging with them on apps like Telegram and 107 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:17,159 Speaker 2: What's Up. And they were able to lure thousands of 108 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:20,840 Speaker 2: Europeans to Syria to fight, or, in the case of women, 109 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:23,720 Speaker 2: sometimes to be the wives of ISIS fighters. They were 110 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 2: able to lure some Americans as well, and that was 111 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:28,919 Speaker 2: through their social media outreach. I think the appeal of 112 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:33,600 Speaker 2: ISIS ISIS sort of sells this idea that, well, no 113 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:36,440 Speaker 2: matter who you are, you have a place in ISIS. 114 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 2: You could be from a completely different background than what 115 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:42,280 Speaker 2: you might associate with an ISIS fighter, but we'll accept 116 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 2: you as long as you're willing to carry out your hat. 117 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 2: It's almost the same philosophy as the French Foreign Lesion 118 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:51,240 Speaker 2: in the sense of that it's this sort of rebirth 119 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:54,280 Speaker 2: or this salvation you can have through them. Obviously, I 120 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 2: wouldn't compare those two organizations in any other way because 121 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 2: I have great respect for the French Foreign Legion, but 122 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 2: what is the French Foreign Legions model or ethos? You 123 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 2: can come as you are. We don't care if you 124 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:06,920 Speaker 2: are a prisoner, we don't care if you are a thief. 125 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 2: We don't care how you lived your life before you 126 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 2: join the French Foreign Legion. If you join the French 127 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:14,480 Speaker 2: Foreign Legion and commit to it, you get to become 128 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:17,280 Speaker 2: a new person. And that's the appeal of Isis as well. 129 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 1: What I'm in trained with is there's this constant regeneration. 130 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: So somehow they have found a formula both on social 131 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:31,680 Speaker 1: media and on messaging which allows them to sort of 132 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 1: replenish I think much more than say al Kaeda does. 133 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 1: As a result, they're very very hard to eliminate. You 134 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:43,280 Speaker 1: can bruise them, you can shrink them, you can cause 135 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: them casualties, but in the end they grow back so 136 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 1: rapidly that it's an astonishing worldwide network. 137 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 2: Well yes and no. I mean they've lost a lot 138 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 2: of their territory and they've been unable to get it 139 00:07:57,280 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 2: back in terms of their ability to regenerate in terms 140 00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:03,000 Speaker 2: of these offshoots or these franchises. Yes, that's been impressive, 141 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 2: but they take advantage of pre existing grievances in society. 142 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 2: So sometimes they'll take advantage of militant groups that might 143 00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 2: exist in the Philippines or West Africa that already had 144 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:17,320 Speaker 2: grievances against the central government, but they want the ISIS 145 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 2: brand because they're more compelling, so they'll brand themselves as ISIS, 146 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 2: but in reality they have more local grievances. In the 147 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 2: case of these lone wolf ataxis in Europe and the 148 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 2: United States, I think they take advantage of the problems 149 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:31,240 Speaker 2: we have in our own country, which is that we 150 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 2: have thousands, if not millions of men living on the 151 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 2: fringe of society who don't have support networks. They don't 152 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:40,840 Speaker 2: go to church, they don't necessarily have a family, they 153 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:42,840 Speaker 2: might not even go to the local bar, which used 154 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:45,800 Speaker 2: to be a support network. In some sense, we're increasingly 155 00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 2: a society that doesn't have community, and so there's these 156 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 2: men who are living on the fringes. And in the 157 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 2: case of this man, he had gone through a divorce 158 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:56,560 Speaker 2: and I think he had significant credit card debt. And 159 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:58,840 Speaker 2: of course plenty of people fit that description and don't 160 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:02,040 Speaker 2: become ISIS terrorists, but they're able to take advantage of 161 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:04,680 Speaker 2: these individuals who might be living on the fringe or 162 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 2: might be dissatisfied with their lot in life, and they 163 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:12,160 Speaker 2: offer for some people a compelling message that you can 164 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 2: be significant, you can be important if you carry out 165 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 2: an attack for us. 166 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 1: I'm nut Gingrich. Please watch Journey to America, my new 167 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 1: documentary on PBS about nine remarkable individuals who strengthen our 168 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 1: country through their pursuit of the American dream. From Albert 169 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:41,079 Speaker 1: Einstein to Hetty Lamar to Zelmai Kalila Zad. We explore 170 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:45,480 Speaker 1: how individual stories help shape our national identity. Watch Journey 171 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:49,360 Speaker 1: to America, premiering Tuesday, January fourteenth, to ten pm Eastern, 172 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:58,680 Speaker 1: nine pm Central on PBS and the PBS app. My 173 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:03,080 Speaker 1: first reaction when the Tesla vehicle went off in Las 174 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 1: Vegas in front of the Trump Hotel the same day 175 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:10,080 Speaker 1: that you had the attack in New Orleans. I thought 176 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:12,839 Speaker 1: there might be some connection. I began to believe that, 177 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 1: in fact, they're radically different, that the New Orleans attack 178 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:20,199 Speaker 1: was somebody who really did see themselves in the context 179 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 1: of Isis versus the West, whereas I get the sense 180 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 1: that Matthew Allen Levelsberger, who's the master sergeant who killed 181 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 1: himself and blew up the vehicle. Really was probably more 182 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 1: of a personal case of somebody who simply despaired of life. 183 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 1: I decided to go out in a pretty impressive way, 184 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 1: but was not actually linked to any kind of ISIS relationship. 185 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 1: Do you have any feel for that? 186 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think your assessment is spot on. I think 187 00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:52,640 Speaker 2: there are different cases, and a lot of these similarities 188 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 2: are coincidences. The media as usual as being quite sensationalistic 189 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:59,079 Speaker 2: about this, trying to make the case like, oh, they 190 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 2: both went to Fort Well, if civilians knew how big 191 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:05,080 Speaker 2: Fort Bragg was, it's like saying that two people, in 192 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 2: the span of their lifetime both lived in New York 193 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 2: City at one point. It means nothing. I don't think 194 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:12,200 Speaker 2: that's very relevant. It might be a reflection on the 195 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 2: mental health crisis that exists in the US military and 196 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 2: among veterans. Of course, he was active duty on leave, 197 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,200 Speaker 2: but I think there is a real health crisis that 198 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:22,880 Speaker 2: exists in the US military, And I say that as 199 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 2: a veteran, and I don't think it should be stigmatized. 200 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:27,960 Speaker 2: I don't think we should jump to conclusions and say that, oh, 201 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:31,760 Speaker 2: you know, PTSD is causing US military personal invets to 202 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 2: go become terrorists. I think that's a very simplistic narrative. 203 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:36,199 Speaker 2: But there is a mental health crisis. There is a strain. 204 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 2: A lot of it's not even related to combat. Some 205 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 2: of it's just related to the family dynamics that occur, 206 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:44,079 Speaker 2: the high rates of divorce, the being away from your family, 207 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 2: even if it's just for training and not of combat deployment. 208 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 2: And some individuals join the military with pre existing mental 209 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:54,080 Speaker 2: health issues, and the military offers a societally acceptable explanation 210 00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:56,440 Speaker 2: for why they have these issues, but in fact those 211 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:58,600 Speaker 2: issues might not even be linked to the military, they 212 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:00,880 Speaker 2: might be pre existing, and so I think it is 213 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 2: something that both military leaders and Congress probably has to 214 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:07,480 Speaker 2: take more seriously. And the American public, I mean, the 215 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:10,720 Speaker 2: gap between the American public and the veteran community and 216 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 2: those actively serving is massive, and it's probably the largest 217 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 2: it's ever been because, of course, we haven't had a 218 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 2: draft for decades. So there were wars in the past 219 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:23,040 Speaker 2: that were in which this American society was much more 220 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 2: linked to military service because anyone could be drafted and 221 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 2: everyone knew someone who had been drafted. But these days 222 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 2: it's not uncommon for someone not to know a veteran 223 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 2: or not to know someone actively servicing. I'd go as 224 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 2: far as saying the average American probably doesn't know the 225 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:39,959 Speaker 2: difference between an officer and an enlisted soldier. That's how 226 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 2: detached the American public is from the military experience, and 227 00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 2: that leads to a sense of isolation. So if there's 228 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 2: a common thread, I would say it's that. But I 229 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 2: don't think there's any common threat in terms of ideology 230 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:54,840 Speaker 2: or training. I think there's just some coincidences that the 231 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 2: media is blowing out of proportion. 232 00:12:56,960 --> 00:13:02,560 Speaker 1: From the standpoint of the New Orleans. How significant do 233 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:06,840 Speaker 1: you think is Isis's presence in the US today and 234 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:08,240 Speaker 1: is it growing or shrinking. 235 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 2: I don't have the data to know if it's growing 236 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 2: or shrinking. I know that over the last ten years 237 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 2: it's been shrinking. Could there be a resurgence. Sure, we're 238 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:19,079 Speaker 2: at risk in this time period for copycat attacks, because 239 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 2: sometimes when these attacks happen, other folks get the same idea, 240 00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:25,200 Speaker 2: and of course they're not hard to replicate. I don't 241 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:27,560 Speaker 2: have the data to know if it's growing or shrinking. Again, 242 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 2: i'd say that they're exploiting problems that exist in the 243 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 2: society or at large. If you get killed by someone 244 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 2: in the United States, it's probably not going to be 245 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:39,680 Speaker 2: an ISIS attack. It's probably just going to be random 246 00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 2: violence that we see all the time. I mean, I 247 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:43,559 Speaker 2: live in New York City. New York City is filled 248 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 2: with random violence, so is the rest of the country, 249 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 2: and we continue to have mass shootings and school shootings, 250 00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:51,079 Speaker 2: and most of them are not ISIS. I think ISIS 251 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:54,800 Speaker 2: is able to exploit some of these underlying problems that 252 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:56,199 Speaker 2: already exist in our country. 253 00:13:57,000 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 1: Do you think this was probably a random law of 254 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:05,520 Speaker 1: incident in New Orleans rather than a recruited and sort 255 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:06,760 Speaker 1: of organized incident. 256 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 2: From what I've heard so far, there was a networked 257 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:12,320 Speaker 2: component to it, so there might have been some recruitment. 258 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 2: But then again, I'm not law enforcement, so I know 259 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 2: about as much as you know in so far as 260 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:19,200 Speaker 2: that that's why that's going to be so significant. Based 261 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 2: on some of what they found, some of the things 262 00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:23,960 Speaker 2: they found in as Airbnb, I suspect there is a 263 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 2: networked component, but we have to remember that even if 264 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 2: it's networked, it doesn't have to be that sophisticated. It 265 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 2: could be as simple as some sort of ISIS recruiter 266 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 2: who reached out to this individual online and sort of 267 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 2: suggested they do something like this. It's not ISIS generally, 268 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:42,200 Speaker 2: isn't engaged in the kind of sophisticated plots that we 269 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 2: saw from al Qaeda in the nineties and the early 270 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 2: two thousands that would take months to plan. It is 271 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 2: easy to replicate when you. 272 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 1: Think about the long term patterns. What is your sense 273 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 1: about the long trajectory of the rise of Islamist radicals 274 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:01,840 Speaker 1: and whether or not that in fact there's a way 275 00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 1: to decisively defeat them. 276 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:07,280 Speaker 2: I mean, in terms of decisively defeating them. These countries 277 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 2: that have some of these issues need to have better governance, 278 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:14,040 Speaker 2: better local law enforcement capability. In many of these places, 279 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 2: whether we're talking about Northwest Pakistan or whether we're talking 280 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:21,160 Speaker 2: about the Philippines and Minda now where there's a radical 281 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 2: Islamist presence and an ISIS presence, a lot of times 282 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 2: the first responders are local police, but they're outgunned and 283 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 2: they're out trained. In a lot of these places, there's 284 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 2: a serious lack of the rit of the state. There's 285 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 2: a serious rule of law problem. So I think those 286 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 2: things need to be resolved, and in many cases they 287 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 2: can only be resolved by the host countries. I think 288 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 2: there's a limit to how much military force can solve 289 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 2: these problems. I mean, certainly, defeating the ISIS caliphate was 290 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 2: important symbolically because it lowered their prestige among radical Islamists 291 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 2: because they couldn't hold onto their caliphate and so they 292 00:15:56,320 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 2: were less I think seductive as a terrorist group. And 293 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 2: you do see other groups. I'll give an example HTS, 294 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:06,560 Speaker 2: which has just taken over Syria and is now the 295 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 2: de facto government in Damascus. You see them avoiding some 296 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 2: of the mistakes that ISIS made because they do realize 297 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 2: they are different group from ISIS. But I think they 298 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 2: also realize that if they go too far, the international 299 00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:20,840 Speaker 2: community won't stand for it. So I think the example 300 00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 2: of defeating the ISIS caliphate was important, But beyond that, 301 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:29,680 Speaker 2: there's not a total military solution for radical Islamist groups 302 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 2: or any kind of radical armed movement, even if we're 303 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 2: talking about right wing groups, because they're able to carry 304 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:39,160 Speaker 2: out these loan wolf ataxis low cost attacks. It just 305 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 2: doesn't cost them that much. I mean, again, it takes 306 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 2: one individual can ram a vehicle down Bourbon Street, and 307 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:50,800 Speaker 2: they can make a serious dent in the feeling of 308 00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 2: safety among New Orleans residents, and they can make a 309 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 2: serious stent in the tourism economy just by that one 310 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 2: simple act. It doesn't cost them as much as it 311 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 2: costs local government. In the federal government, which has to 312 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:06,960 Speaker 2: spend millions of dollars in trying to intercept these attacks, well, 313 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 2: they can do it for a few hundred bucks and 314 00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 2: a car rental, and so they have that advantage, and 315 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:16,440 Speaker 2: it's very difficult to tackle that. I mean, what I'd 316 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:19,840 Speaker 2: say though, is that beyond the CT angle and beyond 317 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:23,119 Speaker 2: trying to disrupt these plots from a law enforcement angle, 318 00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 2: we do have a mental health crisis in this country. 319 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 2: We do have men who are living on them fringes 320 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:32,000 Speaker 2: of society, and those things probably need to be addressed, 321 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 2: and that would probably reduce violence overall. As I said earlier, 322 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 2: most random or organized violence in this country is not 323 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:41,080 Speaker 2: isis violence. 324 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:54,200 Speaker 1: I'm nud Gandrich. Please watch Journey to America, my new 325 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 1: documentary in PBS about nine remarkable individuals who strengthen our 326 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:01,719 Speaker 1: country through their pursuit of the American dream. From Albert 327 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 1: Einstein to Hetty Lamar does Zell, Maake Kalilazade. We explore 328 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:10,119 Speaker 1: how individual stories help shape our national identity. Watch Journey 329 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 1: to America premier on Tuesday, January fourteenth to ten pm Eastern, 330 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 1: nine pm Central on PBS and the PBS app. Share 331 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:29,240 Speaker 1: with our listeners what the Quincy Institute does well. 332 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 2: The Quincy Institute is a Washington, DC based think tank, 333 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:36,159 Speaker 2: although we have some folks outside of DC. We're a 334 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:38,919 Speaker 2: restraint think tank. And what that means is that we 335 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:42,640 Speaker 2: believe in a US foreign policy that is more focused 336 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:45,720 Speaker 2: on diplomacy than military intervention. That doesn't mean we don't 337 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 2: value the military. That doesn't mean we don't think there 338 00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:50,520 Speaker 2: are some situations where a military force is necessary or 339 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 2: can act as a deterrent, or can help with the negotiation. 340 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:58,880 Speaker 2: But we think that over the last two decades, US 341 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:02,120 Speaker 2: foreign policy has leaned far too heavily on military intervention, 342 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:06,440 Speaker 2: and it's had disastrous consequences. Look at what happened in Afghanistan, 343 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:08,879 Speaker 2: Look at what happened in Iraq, Look at all the 344 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 2: veterans who have been left behind. Look at this investment 345 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,680 Speaker 2: trillions of dollars in the Global War on terror and 346 00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 2: what do we really have to show for it? And 347 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:21,560 Speaker 2: so from that a group of individuals came together from 348 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 2: different backgrounds, some from academia, some from the US military 349 00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:29,479 Speaker 2: who were former officers, and some who were journalists and 350 00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 2: formed a think tank that essentially said, we're going to 351 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:36,119 Speaker 2: question this. The status quo isn't working. We need to 352 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:38,719 Speaker 2: find a way to solve our problems in the world 353 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 2: that doesn't cost billions of dollars and thousands of American lives. 354 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 1: In your judgment, does that also mean you have to 355 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:51,600 Speaker 1: have smaller goals and less of a desire to radically 356 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 1: reshape the planet. 357 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:57,879 Speaker 2: Well, I think this idea of having American premiscy is 358 00:19:57,960 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 2: flawed in some ways. I don't think we can re 359 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 2: make entire regions and countries in our image or necessarily 360 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:07,119 Speaker 2: bring them to heal through military intervention. And if you 361 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:10,159 Speaker 2: think about what inspires the world about the United States, 362 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:14,120 Speaker 2: it's not our ability to invade countries like Iraq. It's 363 00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:17,239 Speaker 2: the fact that we have a democracy that we can 364 00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 2: criticize it all we want, but it still works at 365 00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:22,119 Speaker 2: the end of the day. In this last election, plenty 366 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:24,640 Speaker 2: of people had predictions, but nobody knew for sure who 367 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 2: was going to win the presidency. And that's the sign 368 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:30,960 Speaker 2: of a healthy democracy. It's our innovation and technology and 369 00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:34,479 Speaker 2: our popular culture. I mean, we're the most exported popular 370 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:37,480 Speaker 2: culture in the world. It's our advancements in science that's 371 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 2: what inspires the world. And I think over the last 372 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 2: twenty years, we've invested far too much in costly wars 373 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:47,200 Speaker 2: abroad and not enough and what truly makes America great 374 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:50,040 Speaker 2: and quality of life at home. And even from a 375 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:54,400 Speaker 2: military perspective, I think we've at the cost of enhancing 376 00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 2: our conventional military capability and our ability to deter peers 377 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 2: like China. We've actually wasted a bunch of time chasing 378 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 2: around militant groups in the mountains of Afghanistan, which really 379 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:07,119 Speaker 2: didn't make all that much sense. 380 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 1: Well, when you think about it, you take the total 381 00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:12,960 Speaker 1: cost of the Iraq campaigns and the total cost of 382 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 1: a twenty two year failed campaign in Afghanistan, that amount 383 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:22,440 Speaker 1: of money spent on developing new technologies and developing new capabilities, 384 00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 1: we would be probably fifteen years ahead of where we 385 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:26,720 Speaker 1: are right now. 386 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:29,760 Speaker 2: No, for sure, I've traveled all around the world, as 387 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 2: I'm sure you have. They speak to people all the time, 388 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 2: and people still admire the United States. They often get 389 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 2: this wistful look in their eye and they want to 390 00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:39,360 Speaker 2: come to the United States, or they ask how they 391 00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 2: could either visit or immigrate to the United States, and 392 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,959 Speaker 2: they praise the United States. Nobody has ever said, you know, 393 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 2: I really admire the way the United States got bogged 394 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,680 Speaker 2: down in Afghanistan and Iraq for twenty years. They've never 395 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:52,960 Speaker 2: said that again. They talk about our culture, they talk 396 00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:56,320 Speaker 2: about our democracy, they talk about our technological advances. That's 397 00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:58,439 Speaker 2: what people admire about the United States, and that's the 398 00:21:58,440 --> 00:21:59,880 Speaker 2: real source of American power. 399 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,399 Speaker 1: People who want to have a better sense of the 400 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 1: kind of bold thinking that you're doing at the Quincy 401 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:11,240 Speaker 1: Institute can go to Quincyinstitute dot org and learn what 402 00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 1: you're up to. 403 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I appreciate that shout out. Thank you. 404 00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:16,879 Speaker 1: I want to thank you for joining me and helping 405 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,560 Speaker 1: us better understand what we're up against. I really think 406 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,200 Speaker 1: the work you're doing is important, and I frankly think 407 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:25,960 Speaker 1: that the critique of our strategies and bureaucracies of the 408 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,800 Speaker 1: last thirty years is long overdue. And I'm hoping that 409 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:33,920 Speaker 1: the new administration is going to follow a dramatically more 410 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:39,040 Speaker 1: positive approach than what we've seen, and one which makes 411 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:43,959 Speaker 1: sure we're strong but nonetheless emphasizes our non military strengths 412 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 1: more than our military strength. So Adam, I really appreciate 413 00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 1: you taking the time to talk with us. 414 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 2: Thanks as always for having me and I share your 415 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,679 Speaker 2: hope that the new administration and President Trump beans on 416 00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:57,360 Speaker 2: his instincts for deal making and anti interventionism rather than 417 00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 2: repeating the mistakes of the past. So I have high 418 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 2: hopes as well. 419 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,280 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest, Adam Weinstein. You can learn 420 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,640 Speaker 1: more about ISIS and America on our show page at 421 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,800 Speaker 1: newtworld dot com. News World is produced by Gingrish three 422 00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:17,480 Speaker 1: sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Guernsey Sloan. Our 423 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:21,439 Speaker 1: researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show was 424 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,679 Speaker 1: created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team at 425 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 1: Gingrishtree sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll 426 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:31,160 Speaker 1: go to Apple Podcast and both rate us with five 427 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,360 Speaker 1: stars and give us a review so others can learn 428 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:38,119 Speaker 1: what it's all about. Right now, listeners of Newtsworld can 429 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:41,440 Speaker 1: sign up for my three free weekly columns at gingishtree 430 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:46,680 Speaker 1: sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. This is newtsworld.