WEBVTT - Can Africa Profit From Soaring Gold?

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Gold continues its upward climb,

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<v Speaker 1>heading close to three thousand dollars per ounce, with many

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<v Speaker 1>analysts thinking the only way is.

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<v Speaker 2>Up tarif escalation by gold, their fizz by gold, cheer

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<v Speaker 2>politics by gold.

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<v Speaker 3>We also like having gold as a position in the

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<v Speaker 3>alternative space.

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<v Speaker 1>With Africa responsible for around twenty five percent of the

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<v Speaker 1>world's total gold, will the continent start to see the

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<v Speaker 1>benefits of the staring price.

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<v Speaker 3>What we've got to do in the morning industry is

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<v Speaker 3>catch up with the price of gold.

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<v Speaker 4>We're a long term player.

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<v Speaker 3>We invest heavily in growth, organic growth. We are pointing

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<v Speaker 3>to a thirty percent increase in production.

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<v Speaker 1>On today's podcast, we'll look at the impact the price

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<v Speaker 1>of gold is having on the continent and why Zimbabwe's

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<v Speaker 1>gold linked currency is just not able to keep up.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Jennifer Zabasanja and this is the Next Africa Podcast,

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<v Speaker 1>bringing you one story each week from the continent, driving

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<v Speaker 1>the future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>can provide. Later on, we'll hear from Mark Bristow. He's

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<v Speaker 1>the CEO of Barrett Gold, Africa's biggest gold producer, but

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<v Speaker 1>first to talk all things ZIG and Zimbabwe. I'm joined

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<v Speaker 1>by Bloomberg's Ray and Lovu, who is in Bulawio and

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<v Speaker 1>joining us back on the show. Ray, always great to

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<v Speaker 1>get you on the show. Thanks so much for joining us.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you first explain how Zimbabwe's currency, the ZIG, which

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<v Speaker 1>we've talked about on the show before, is supposed to

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<v Speaker 1>be linked to gold. This was meant to stop currency inflation, right.

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<v Speaker 1>Has it actually panned out that way?

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<v Speaker 2>It's really been a mixed bag in terms of its performance,

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<v Speaker 2>particularly the fact that that was the key selling point

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<v Speaker 2>that it's gold bagged. The idea of being gold bagged

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<v Speaker 2>really is, as the central Bank has put it, gold

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<v Speaker 2>is the main primary resource that's used to support and

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<v Speaker 2>anchor the currency, including other precious minerals like diamonds and

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<v Speaker 2>also cash foreign currency that's held by the central bank.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's really the essence of it being gold backed

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<v Speaker 2>in that sense. But I think in terms of the

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<v Speaker 2>expectation that it would and the crisis that has been

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<v Speaker 2>a common feature in Zimbabwe for the last few years,

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<v Speaker 2>which we've seen with previous currencies, that really hasn't taken

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<v Speaker 2>off as expected. So I think, you know, on the ground,

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of people are beginning to question that actual claim.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, that it's gold backed, but yet the currency

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<v Speaker 2>has lost value and the currency has been unable to

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<v Speaker 2>arrest inflation. In fact, they've been in the last quarter

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<v Speaker 2>of the year, you know, sharp rise in inflation and

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<v Speaker 2>pressures almost you know, inflation effect going back to double djil.

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<v Speaker 2>So that already has really spilt a lot of doubt

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<v Speaker 2>in the minds of ordinary citizens and also you know,

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<v Speaker 2>among the business community about the claims of the currency

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<v Speaker 2>being gold backed.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and ry happening at the same time, we've been

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<v Speaker 1>watching over the past few days just gold continue to

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<v Speaker 1>hit new records. If you take a look at you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a chart on the terminal, it's close to topping three thousand.

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<v Speaker 1>So you're saying the ZIG has not been able to

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<v Speaker 1>get to those records in this similar way that we're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing gold performing right now.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, like you're pointing out. I looked as

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<v Speaker 2>well at the charts for perspective, when the ZIG was

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<v Speaker 2>launched on April five, up to date, it's lost about

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<v Speaker 2>ninety five percent of its value against the US dollar.

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<v Speaker 2>In the same period of time from April five up

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<v Speaker 2>to date, you know, gold has risen some twenty four percent,

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<v Speaker 2>so there's been no correlation between the movement of the

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<v Speaker 2>gold price and the rally that we're seeing in the

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<v Speaker 2>markets and essentially the performance of the currency. In fact,

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<v Speaker 2>in September last year, we saw the Zig being devalued

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<v Speaker 2>by forty three percent by authorities in an attempt to

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<v Speaker 2>try and stabilize it because you know, it was really

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<v Speaker 2>losing value. So I think that disconnected has been clear

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<v Speaker 2>that there are other factors that move this marveling currency,

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<v Speaker 2>and essentially it's not gold. And what we've seen is

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<v Speaker 2>that the irony has been that gold back currency, which

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<v Speaker 2>is the Zig, you know, is missing out on this

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<v Speaker 2>gold rarely. So there are other factors which really are

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<v Speaker 2>affecting the exchange rate and affecting the currency beyond just

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<v Speaker 2>the gold price.

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<v Speaker 1>What are those other factors ray.

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<v Speaker 2>So one of the things that we've in our conversations

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<v Speaker 2>with investors and market managers in the country has been

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<v Speaker 2>money supply. They point out to a very tight liquid

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<v Speaker 2>discrease in the economy right now, the economy since the

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<v Speaker 2>devaluation of the currency last septem the central bank it's

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<v Speaker 2>benchmark interest rate to thirty five percent from twenty percent

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<v Speaker 2>to deal with excessive liquidity in the market, and that

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<v Speaker 2>really creamed money supply in the economy, so there's generally

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<v Speaker 2>a very very thin volumes of zek liquidity. We've seen

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<v Speaker 2>really the business environment becoming very very difficult because companies

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<v Speaker 2>are struggling bying large to conduct commerce in light of

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<v Speaker 2>very stringent liquidity circumstances. So the consensus really then has

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<v Speaker 2>been that money supply is what drives the exchange rate

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<v Speaker 2>in Zimbabwe.

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<v Speaker 1>Is there anything that the officials that you speak to

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<v Speaker 1>ray the central Bank, the finance minister, is there anything

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<v Speaker 1>that they can do at this point then to reassure

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<v Speaker 1>investors because this should be a correlation, right, you know

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<v Speaker 1>what what can they do now?

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<v Speaker 2>I think the position from both central bank and treasury

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<v Speaker 2>officials that we speak to is that they are keen

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<v Speaker 2>to maintain this type monetary policy stance and the tight

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<v Speaker 2>fiscal policy position at the moment. There's no indication at

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<v Speaker 2>all of easing of conditions. I think the fear definitely

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<v Speaker 2>that they have is there will be a run on

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<v Speaker 2>the exchange rate, the currency will depreciate, that will fan inflation.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's almost you know, a situation where they are

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<v Speaker 2>just keeping everything on hold, and you know, even if

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<v Speaker 2>it's at the expense of the economy and commercial activity

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<v Speaker 2>and so forth. You know, the end game and in

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<v Speaker 2>their view, the greater good is that the is stability

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<v Speaker 2>that's been experienced in the markets. There's no volatility, there's

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<v Speaker 2>no shop spike in inflation, the things which many wings

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<v Speaker 2>for years they've grappled with. So companies now really need

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<v Speaker 2>to begin to relook and rethink, you know, in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of their workforce, in terms of pay issues, because you know,

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<v Speaker 2>this tight position is going to remain.

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<v Speaker 1>And they're still sticking by the ZIG as far as

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<v Speaker 1>you know.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, the ZIG definitely has not been abandoned by authorities.

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<v Speaker 2>It remains in circulation and remains supported by authorities. What

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<v Speaker 2>obviously remains in doubt is at least its existing side

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<v Speaker 2>by side with the US dollar because naturally the preference

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<v Speaker 2>has always been to use dollars by and large. The

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<v Speaker 2>message and communications, that's acceptance on none. You know, the

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<v Speaker 2>ZIG is here to stay.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks so much. Ray, that's our Bloomberg reporter Ray in Lovo,

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<v Speaker 1>who is in Bulawayo in Zimbabwe, and stick with us

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<v Speaker 1>when we come back. Well, hear from one company that's

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<v Speaker 1>bullish about the benefit for Africa of a high gold price.

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<v Speaker 1>Part of my interview with Barrett Gold CEO Mark Bristow

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<v Speaker 1>is after the break, we'll be right back. Welcome back. Today.

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<v Speaker 1>We're talking all things gold as global trade wars seem

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<v Speaker 1>to be helping push the commodity up closer and closer

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<v Speaker 1>towards the three thousand dollars mark. South Africa's annual mining conference,

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<v Speaker 1>Mining in Daba, was held along the backdrop of this

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<v Speaker 1>gold rally. I spoke with Mark Bristow, the CEO of

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<v Speaker 1>Barrett Gold, the largest gold producer in Africa, and I

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<v Speaker 1>asked him about the state of the gold mining industry

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<v Speaker 1>in Africa. But first I wanted to know how high

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<v Speaker 1>he thought gold could go.

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<v Speaker 3>Everyone's trying very hard to push the gold pros up.

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<v Speaker 3>What we're seeing as a continuation of d dollarisation fueled

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<v Speaker 3>by the actions coming out of Washington.

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<v Speaker 4>And on top of.

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<v Speaker 3>That, you know, we've got challenges in the UK. Europe

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<v Speaker 3>is not in good place, with the French and the Germans,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, the leaders of the Free World all in

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<v Speaker 3>the crossis and of course Middle East and conflicts in

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<v Speaker 3>every continent so gold price has got a lot of upside. Still,

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<v Speaker 3>I always say the risk is the upside, and it's

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<v Speaker 3>very much intact that trend.

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<v Speaker 1>How much further do you think it has to go?

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<v Speaker 1>Because some people believe potentially we've peaked.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, everyone has been saying that you've seen in

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<v Speaker 3>the equities have been softer than the actual bullion press

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<v Speaker 3>over twenty twenty four. But I don't think so. And certainly,

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<v Speaker 3>I mean there's a lot of reason why the gold

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<v Speaker 3>parcus shouldn't go down if you try and look at

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<v Speaker 3>what it's going to take for us to get back

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<v Speaker 3>to normality in the global economy today.

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<v Speaker 4>It's not an easy task.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think we've seen damage to the US dollar

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<v Speaker 3>as a reputational currency and gold has taken that place normalized.

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<v Speaker 1>What does that mean for Barrack's assets then, and especially

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<v Speaker 1>on the African cors.

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<v Speaker 3>All the assets are very valuable, whatever assets you've got,

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<v Speaker 3>particularly if you're in gold and copper today.

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<v Speaker 1>To exit any of the operation definitely not okay.

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<v Speaker 3>No, we constantly look at our call as sets because

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<v Speaker 3>I'm very focused on high quality tier one assets and

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<v Speaker 3>so there's there's a tie and there's a market for

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<v Speaker 3>those non core assets. But we're you know we've been.

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<v Speaker 3>We're a long term player. We invest heavily in growth,

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<v Speaker 3>organic growth. We we are pointing to a thirty percent

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<v Speaker 3>increase in production by the end of this decade, organic.

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<v Speaker 4>Growth at all of your operations.

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<v Speaker 3>Across the group and that and that's going to happen

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<v Speaker 3>without any issuing of shares.

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<v Speaker 4>In fact, we're buying back shares.

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<v Speaker 1>So when are you going to start buying back shares?

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<v Speaker 4>We have already started.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you plan to continue doing that?

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<v Speaker 3>That abolutely certainly where the chap Rus is sitting at

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<v Speaker 3>the moment, one of the best investments we can make

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<v Speaker 3>is buy back our own share.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you think where do you think the share

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<v Speaker 1>price then has to go?

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<v Speaker 4>I think the shap well it's.

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<v Speaker 1>Going to go up, okay, yes, But then what is

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<v Speaker 1>your calls then for that?

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<v Speaker 3>You know that's the market will judge that. And at

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<v Speaker 3>the end of the day, what we've got and we're

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<v Speaker 3>about to bring out our twenty twenty four results. We

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<v Speaker 3>have one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry.

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<v Speaker 3>We were able to buy back our shares and re

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<v Speaker 3>investing all the time in new opportunities and more importantly,

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<v Speaker 3>we're about to build out two really big mining projects,

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<v Speaker 3>the expansion in Zambia, doubling production and then the big

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<v Speaker 3>gold and copper asset in Pakistan, which is one of

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<v Speaker 3>the biggest gold and copper minds that haven't been developed

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<v Speaker 3>yet in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>And Mark, I also want to talk to you about

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<v Speaker 1>another one of your operations that's in Mali. There's been

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of focus on what's happening the discussions between

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<v Speaker 1>the Mali and government and also Barrick where what is

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<v Speaker 1>the next shoot to drop? Where are we at right

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<v Speaker 1>now in negotiations.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, Jennifer, it's been a very sad time for me.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, I've been in Mali since it was really

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<v Speaker 3>re established as a democracy, and we said, I've worked

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<v Speaker 3>with any many all the governments since nineteen ninety two,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think we've Mini's got itself in a position where,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, it's really try to shake out some short

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<v Speaker 3>term cash out of the industry, and this industry is

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<v Speaker 3>the very foundation of its economy, and I think we

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<v Speaker 3>need to and so communication, to your point, is really important.

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<v Speaker 4>We are in communication.

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<v Speaker 3>We are working every and were making progress, not as

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<v Speaker 3>fast as I would expected but I'm sure everyone's a

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<v Speaker 3>little cautious, because that's what happens when you get on

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<v Speaker 3>the wrong side of everyone.

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<v Speaker 1>We haven't agreed to a number to paying back.

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<v Speaker 3>Any of what, we haven't reached an agreement on anything yet,

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<v Speaker 3>but we are making progress and I think that's the

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<v Speaker 3>that's the positive.

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<v Speaker 1>And that was Barrett Gold CEO Mark Bristow speaking with

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<v Speaker 1>us at mining in Daba. And thanks so much to Mark,

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<v Speaker 1>and also Bloomberg's Rate and Lovu for joining us on

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<v Speaker 1>today's podcast. And don't forget you can read all of

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<v Speaker 1>our coverage on gold and all commodities, including rays reporting

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<v Speaker 1>across Bloomberg platforms. Now here's some of the other stories

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<v Speaker 1>we've been following across the region this week. Namibia's central

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<v Speaker 1>bank chief has warned that escalating tensions between the US

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<v Speaker 1>and South Africa could destabilize its economy, citing the close

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<v Speaker 1>ties it has with the two nations and the vulnerability

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<v Speaker 1>of the Namibian dollar, which is pegged to the rand.

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<v Speaker 1>President Donald Trump, in a February seventh executive order, froze

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<v Speaker 1>all usaid to South Africa over what he falsely claimed

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<v Speaker 1>were rights violations stemming from a new land expropriation law

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<v Speaker 1>and for South Africa's case in the International Court of

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<v Speaker 1>Justice alleging Israel's assault in the Gaza Strip was an

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<v Speaker 1>act of genocide. And Ghana's Special Prosecutor has declared former

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<v Speaker 1>Finance Minister ken Oforiata a wanted person after he failed

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<v Speaker 1>to meet with authorities to answer questions over alleged wrongdoing.

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<v Speaker 1>Ofori Ata, who held the position for seven years from

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<v Speaker 1>twenty seventeen, was replaced as minister last February by former

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<v Speaker 1>President Nana Akufu Adu. And you can follow these stories

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<v Speaker 1>across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter. We'll put a

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<v Speaker 1>link to that in the show notes. This program was

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<v Speaker 1>produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't forget to follow and review

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<v Speaker 1>this show wherever you usually get your podcasts. I'm Jennifer Zabasoja.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks as always for listening. We'll see you next time.