1 00:00:00,480 --> 00:00:03,120 Speaker 1: This is Tom Rowland's Reese, and you're listening to Switched 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: on the podcast brought to you by Bloomberg NEF. The 3 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:10,680 Speaker 1: energy transition is reshaping metals markets faster than expected. When 4 00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 1: BNF first published the Transition Metals Outlook just a few 5 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: years ago, most key commodities were forecast to be headed 6 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:20,119 Speaker 1: for shortages. But in this year's edition, only three of 7 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 1: the ten metals track remained at risk of deficit as 8 00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 1: countries and companies have both ramped up supply. That surge 9 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:29,280 Speaker 1: has pushed several battery metals into surplus, lowering prices and 10 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:32,559 Speaker 1: accelerating the shift to new chemistries. On today's show, I'm 11 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 1: joined by Quasi Ampofo, BNF's head of Metals and Mining 12 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 1: to discuss some of the key findings from the Transition 13 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 1: Metals Outlook twenty twenty five. Together, we talk about some 14 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 1: old favorites like steel and copper, plus some new energy 15 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 1: transition stars like lithium and manganese. We'll also get into 16 00:00:47,360 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 1: y ev battery chemistries are changing so quickly and why 17 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:52,919 Speaker 1: China has kept its production b and EF clients can 18 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 1: find the TMO, along with other metals and mining research 19 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 1: by heading to BNF, go on the Bloomberg terminal ORBNF 20 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:01,279 Speaker 1: dot com. If you'd like to learn more about how 21 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 1: BNF approaches strategy research on the energy transition, including developments 22 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: and commodity markets, trans across different sectors, and the cross 23 00:01:08,319 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 1: cutting technologies shaping the future. You can find more information 24 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:13,680 Speaker 1: on BNF dot com and if you'd like to speak 25 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: with a member of our team about becoming a client, 26 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 1: email US at Sales dot BNF at Bloomberg dot net. 27 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 1: But for now, let's get into the show and unpack 28 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:34,040 Speaker 1: how these shifts in metals will shape the energy transition. Quasy, 29 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: Welcome to the podcast. 30 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 2: Thank you for having me. Tom. So, you've just. 31 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 1: Published the latest Transition Metals Outlook. I know this is 32 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 1: a huge piece of work and it is broad in 33 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 1: scope in multiple dimensions. Both you cover so many different 34 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 1: metals that are important to the energy transition, and you 35 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 1: look at them from different angles as well. So what 36 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 1: do you think the main themes that came out are 37 00:01:56,680 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 1: in terms of how right now the energy transition is 38 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 1: reshaping metals markets. 39 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 2: Before I answer that, I wanted to take you on 40 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 2: the trip on memory lane. So we started working on 41 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 2: this twenty twenty two, and the first version of this 42 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:13,839 Speaker 2: report came out in twenty twenty three. And back then 43 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:17,480 Speaker 2: when we sort of looked at how the energy transition 44 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 2: is going to ship the metals industry, our conclusion was 45 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 2: that for most of the metals, whether it was still 46 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:27,480 Speaker 2: going into wind turbine, whether it was literally going into batteries, 47 00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 2: or whether it was platinum going into electrolyzers, our conclusion 48 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 2: then was that for most of those metals, there is 49 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 2: actually not enough supply to meet demand. Fast forward to 50 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five, when we published this one, we looked 51 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 2: at ten metals, and out of the ten, over the 52 00:02:43,480 --> 00:02:46,640 Speaker 2: next five years, I must say only three of these 53 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 2: metals were currently running at a risk of a deficit. 54 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 2: And the simple reason being that four years ago when 55 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 2: we started looking at these metals, I think we underestimated 56 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 2: the power and the capability of human ingenuity. We did 57 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 2: not account how fast countries such as China or companies 58 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:10,839 Speaker 2: such as those in Indonesia and Dearity can bring capacity 59 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 2: online faster than we have ever imagine. Because look, Tom, 60 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 2: I'm a mind an engineer. I've done the hard part 61 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 2: going underground and non surface, and what we learned in 62 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 2: school was that it takes ten years to build a project. 63 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 2: What we've seen is that these days people can do 64 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 2: that in three. So I think the biggest surprise for 65 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:30,920 Speaker 2: me in this project, what's the fact that majority of 66 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:33,800 Speaker 2: these metals are no more indeficit In some instances we 67 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 2: actually look at a stoplus now I was about to ask. 68 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 1: I mean, firstly, it's really impressive how the industry has 69 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: stepped up. We've seen in so many energy transition sectors 70 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 1: the ramp up of supply overshooting demand. And is that 71 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 1: what we're seeing now is that that some of these 72 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 1: metals that are now they've kind of overestimated or they 73 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 1: underestimated what other companies or other countries would do, and 74 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 1: so now we have this surplus is at an issue 75 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 1: the industry is now facing. 76 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 2: And it depends on who you ask, right And my 77 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:08,880 Speaker 2: my very classic non mining example has always been whenever 78 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 2: commodity prices are down, I judge the industry mood based 79 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 2: on what I'm saved at at mining events. So when 80 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:20,560 Speaker 2: prices of commodities in other words, led lithium and the 81 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,600 Speaker 2: cobota ad down and you go to mining conferences, they 82 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 2: would usually serve you just a glass of water after 83 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 2: the conference. Right when prices are high, they would save 84 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:33,039 Speaker 2: you a glass of champagne. At the same time, when 85 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 2: commodity prices are low and you're getting water in mining conference, 86 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 2: if you go to a battery conference, they're actually serving 87 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:42,719 Speaker 2: you champagne. And the simple reason being that the price 88 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:45,599 Speaker 2: of those commodities are the input costs. And look, we 89 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:48,160 Speaker 2: just published our battery price servey a few days ago, 90 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:50,600 Speaker 2: and you can see that battery price is at all 91 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:54,360 Speaker 2: time low simply because quality prices at all time low. 92 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:57,039 Speaker 2: So what is hurt in the mining industry is actually 93 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 2: working in favor of the downstream that's a result of 94 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 2: so Supplus is actually not all that bad for everyone. 95 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 2: But you ask what led us into this, Sepplus, I 96 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:08,039 Speaker 2: think there are three things that stand out in this 97 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:11,359 Speaker 2: instance with respect to energy transition. And I make references 98 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 2: to batteries a lot. So mind you, the battery industry 99 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 2: for electric vehicle are still in this very early stages, right. 100 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 2: And the thing about early stage and Silicon Valley, which 101 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:22,960 Speaker 2: is like the tech capital of the world, is that 102 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:26,839 Speaker 2: everything changes so quickly. Six years ago when I started 103 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:30,160 Speaker 2: looking at battery metals, our assumption then, was that the 104 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 2: battery chemistry that relies significantly on nickel, manganese and cobalt 105 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:37,479 Speaker 2: will be the dominant one. Fast forward to today, there's 106 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 2: a new kid on the block, which is made up 107 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:42,919 Speaker 2: of lithium, iron and phosphates, popularly known as the LFP. 108 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:46,560 Speaker 2: Now what that means is that that technology shift from 109 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 2: one battery chemistry to the other has meant that what 110 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 2: we thought would be the demand for those metals have 111 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:56,159 Speaker 2: totally changed. So that is one of the reasons the 112 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 2: fact that technology is changing quite rapidly. 113 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:00,920 Speaker 1: Can we just swell on that for a moment, because 114 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 1: if the battery industry shows that level of flexibility, does 115 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:06,480 Speaker 1: that not mean that they are always going to be 116 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 1: able to pivot towards whichever commodity is cheap? And so 117 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 1: in the future there at the battery conference is they're 118 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 1: always going to be drinking champagne and maybe the metal conferences, 119 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 1: maybe you'll be getting orange juice because there's always demand 120 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:22,359 Speaker 1: for something, but it's not going to be champagne or 121 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: do you get what I'm saying? Like that flexibility works 122 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:28,279 Speaker 1: well for the battery industry and it kind of puts 123 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 1: the metals industry as in a bit of a losing position. 124 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 2: I think I can imagine all the mind and people 125 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:37,440 Speaker 2: listening getting very worried about perpetual free juices. But look, 126 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:41,560 Speaker 2: that is partially true. To extend that when the industry 127 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:44,160 Speaker 2: is still in a very niche stage, arm it's very 128 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:47,440 Speaker 2: easy to pivot, right. And the simple reason being, so 129 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:51,239 Speaker 2: if you take an average car, most companies would rely 130 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:55,919 Speaker 2: on about two thousand different supplies to provide the put 131 00:06:56,320 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 2: for the auto company to be able to assemble that 132 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:03,480 Speaker 2: car two thousand parts tom, and so when you're producing 133 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:06,840 Speaker 2: just a few hundred cars or a few thousand cars 134 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 2: a year, it's very easy to sort of have that 135 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:14,080 Speaker 2: flexibility to shift from one technology to the other. And 136 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 2: that was very true at the ely stage of the 137 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 2: easy adoption, right where companies were still trying to figure 138 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 2: it out. Companies were still trying to understand what works, 139 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 2: and there was a lot of flexibility there. Imagine most 140 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 2: of these electric vehicle makers now have to produce about 141 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 2: what ten twenty thirty million cars forty million cars in 142 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:36,320 Speaker 2: some instances a year. That innovation cycle becomes a lot 143 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 2: more longer because now if you're using the just in 144 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 2: time model, like they do. If you have these megafactories 145 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 2: and you have these two thousand different suppliers providing PAT 146 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:49,760 Speaker 2: three into the car, you suddenly lose that flexibility. So 147 00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 2: I think over the next decade the industry is going 148 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 2: to take a lot more form and unfortunately that flexibility 149 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 2: would vanish. And what that means is that there'll be 150 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:00,920 Speaker 2: a lot more certainty on what meta else the industry 151 00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:04,240 Speaker 2: actually needs over along that period. So Tom, to answer 152 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 2: your question, yeah, it might not always be foodjuice. 153 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 1: Right, So that's interesting. So we're currently in this phase 154 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 1: of finding out, you know, which way it's going to 155 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:15,440 Speaker 1: go in terms of which metals are going to kind 156 00:08:15,440 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 1: of get locked in as the future important metals for 157 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:22,120 Speaker 1: EV batteries and which ones are going to be also. 158 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 2: Runs precisely for some We think that the veditors out 159 00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 2: for passenger electric vehicle as an example, we think that 160 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:35,560 Speaker 2: for most part sixty percent of that passenger market are 161 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:38,679 Speaker 2: going to favor the lithium own phosphate the LFB battery 162 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 2: chemistry that I talked about as a result of its 163 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 2: cost advantages. And then for other end use segements, and 164 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 2: mind you, we're talking about the whole energy transition right 165 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 2: for wind turbines, solar pvs. I think the veditors already 166 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,719 Speaker 2: out on what commodities are going to play a key 167 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:57,200 Speaker 2: role in there. It's just batteries that has always been 168 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 2: the latest kid on the block and also trying to 169 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:00,120 Speaker 2: figure its way. 170 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 1: You mentioned earlier the fact that we're seeing oversupply in 171 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 1: some areas, and you know this constant kind of game 172 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:10,760 Speaker 1: in new areas of trying to guess where supply is. 173 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:12,480 Speaker 1: You don't know who else is piling in, But it 174 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 1: kind of puts the real emphasis on it's important to 175 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 1: know where the growth in demand is happening. So basically, 176 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 1: you know everything we've just talked about, which metals are 177 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 1: the ones facing the strongest long term demand growth? 178 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:26,959 Speaker 2: So I always like to sort of approach this question 179 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:30,319 Speaker 2: in two ways. So there's growth in absolute numbers, right, 180 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:34,319 Speaker 2: So by absolute numbers, I'm looking at the commodities increase 181 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 2: in demand based on the volumes. But then there's also 182 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:41,080 Speaker 2: a growth based on the rates, right, So which one 183 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 2: grows the fastest, it's very different from which one grows 184 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 2: than most, So which one grows the most? We actually 185 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:51,680 Speaker 2: seen a lot more demand for steel, and mind you, 186 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 2: I think very few people associates to you or the 187 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 2: energy transition, but all the infrastructure that is required, all 188 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 2: the platform that you're or wind turbine would have to 189 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:04,959 Speaker 2: stand on, all the infrastructure your solar pvs would have 190 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 2: to stand on, and even your electric vehicle body would 191 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 2: require some steel. So in terms of absolute numbers, what 192 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:15,320 Speaker 2: we're actually seeing is that steel will play some of 193 00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:16,200 Speaker 2: the biggest role. 194 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 1: So you're talking about the growth in demand for steel 195 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 1: specifically for energy transition applications right ticely And what proportion 196 00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:28,680 Speaker 1: of overall steel demand is energy transition applications, because I know, 197 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 1: like steel is like in all infrastructure pretty much. Yes, 198 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:37,640 Speaker 1: it's still very small proportionally, but then in energy transition sense, 199 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 1: it's still quite big. So if you look at other moments, 200 00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:43,800 Speaker 1: we have about fifty million metric tones or stel going 201 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: into the energy transition, and you rightly mertioned steel is 202 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 1: pretty much everywhere, it's the most used metal. Now fast 203 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 1: forward into twenty fifty, so this teel consumption going into 204 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 1: energy transition technologies jump rapidly, too closely about two hundred 205 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 1: million tones, right, so it increases, yeah, quite significantly. So 206 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,080 Speaker 1: I think the first part of your question in terms 207 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:07,680 Speaker 1: of which of these commodities sees the most growth. Yeah, 208 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 1: so steel in absolute terms. Then on the flip side, 209 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 1: I also like to talk about the fastest growing ones. Right, 210 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 1: it don't matter like in relative prems, in like percentage precisely. 211 00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:21,640 Speaker 2: And the reason that is important is that take litle. 212 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:25,440 Speaker 2: So literle in itself in absolute terms is actually a 213 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 2: fraction of steel or any other metals consumption. Right, literary 214 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 2: conduction is very very minimal compared to other commodities. But 215 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:36,320 Speaker 2: within the next two and a half decades, torn the 216 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:40,240 Speaker 2: consumption of steel and electric vehicles will grow about five 217 00:11:40,360 --> 00:11:43,320 Speaker 2: times what it is today. And what that means is 218 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:46,679 Speaker 2: that for you to avoid the deficit, you need a 219 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:51,679 Speaker 2: corresponding growth in supply five times growth in supply. And 220 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 2: mind you, mines are very difficult and to build, so 221 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:58,680 Speaker 2: about to infrastructure, it takes a long time because of 222 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 2: the permiting, because of the social concerns and all that. 223 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:04,839 Speaker 2: So the reason I also like to highlight the frate 224 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:07,680 Speaker 2: of growth or how fast usins would grow, just to 225 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 2: put the speed at which supply needs to catch up 226 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 2: in context. So in simple terms, when you're thinking about 227 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:18,320 Speaker 2: absolute still obviously grows the most. When you're thinking about 228 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 2: the fastest, it actually comes down to lithium and manganese. 229 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:27,079 Speaker 1: And lithium manganese, and that's predominantly for battery applications. 230 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:28,200 Speaker 2: Correct battery applications. 231 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 1: And what's really interesting about that is the manganese is 232 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:36,000 Speaker 1: not part of the lithium ion phosphate, if I'm right, 233 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 1: it's part of the NMC chemistry. So is this for 234 00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 1: other applications outside of passenger echoes. So that was precisely 235 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 1: correct until about two three years ago. If you look 236 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 1: at four years ago, one of the reasons why people 237 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:52,679 Speaker 1: were less optimistic about. 238 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 2: The lithium ion phosphate battery chemistry was the fact that 239 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:59,800 Speaker 2: what we call rings anxiety, right, it had a lower density. 240 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 2: In other ways, if you put it on a single charge, 241 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:05,760 Speaker 2: it would not go as far as the nickel base 242 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 2: ones will go. And then the Chinese producers or battery 243 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:14,559 Speaker 2: manufacturers like CTL discovered that we can sprinkle a few 244 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:17,840 Speaker 2: ounces of manganese on the little myron phosphate which is 245 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 2: the LFP to produce a new chemistry called LMFP. For 246 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:26,240 Speaker 2: those who are forgotten your periodic table. All these represent 247 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:31,240 Speaker 2: elements in chemistry or metals. L sounds for lithium f 248 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 2: stuand for ion P stands for phostrate, and then the 249 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 2: M sounds for manganese. So manganese I've actually managed to 250 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:42,599 Speaker 2: find a way into this technology that is playing a 251 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:46,280 Speaker 2: much more dominant role and has the reason why it 252 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:48,960 Speaker 2: has become one of the fastest growing Because if you 253 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:52,560 Speaker 2: go to the left and choose nickel base battery chemistries, 254 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:55,120 Speaker 2: marganese are still there. If you go to the right 255 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:58,440 Speaker 2: and choose the ion base ones, manganese is still going 256 00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 2: to be there. So manganese is winning whichever way you look. 257 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 2: I like that analogy. Yes, manganese has win. 258 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 1: Another you know, and you already alluded to it earlier. 259 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:12,600 Speaker 1: Another super important metal, copper. What are we saying about. 260 00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 2: Copper in our outlook? So there are couple of things 261 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:17,959 Speaker 2: we're saying. One of the fact that the demand is 262 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 2: going to grow and tom if you look at copper, 263 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 2: I think copper is probably the most versatile commodity in 264 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 2: the energy transition. You want to transmit power from the 265 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 2: battery to the wheels of the car. That power will 266 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 2: be transmitted by your copper cables. You want to carry 267 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 2: charge from the annual to the cathode. In the stationary 268 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:43,400 Speaker 2: story system, that would be the copper acting as the collectors. 269 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 2: You want to be able to connect your solar facility 270 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 2: to your home, it's the copper that would carry those 271 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 2: charges from generation all the way to the end user 272 00:14:56,560 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 2: and a lot more applications. So we think that demand 273 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 2: for copper is going to go significantly. Unfortunately, supply has 274 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 2: not been able to catch up to that growth in demand. 275 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 2: Over the last five years, I dare say that less 276 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 2: than ten new minds, if not far less, have been built. 277 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:18,600 Speaker 2: Look we random models, and by twenty thirty five, which 278 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:21,320 Speaker 2: is just a decade, demand will grow from a little 279 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 2: under ten ty million tons to a little under forty million. 280 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 2: There's ten million more demand coming online for copper as 281 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 2: a result of the energy transition, right, and what can 282 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 2: we say about supply. Supply does not even grow by 283 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:38,480 Speaker 2: an extra million over this period of time. So I 284 00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 2: think something drastic needs to be done. And the reason 285 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 2: why it's very important because at the same time this 286 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:47,600 Speaker 2: is happening, you actually have President Trump in the United 287 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:50,680 Speaker 2: States of America indicating that the plan to put a 288 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:54,480 Speaker 2: tariff on copper that will be imported into the US 289 00:15:54,520 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 2: as a matter of fact, and that also as to 290 00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 2: the pressure the commodity is currently facing. And then the 291 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 2: final thing we touched on briefly is the fact that 292 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:06,200 Speaker 2: copper has a nickname Doctor Copper, not because it has 293 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 2: a PhD. At this point it probably does. But then 294 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 2: the simple reason being that the global health is actually 295 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 2: mersured based on the growth of copper consumption, because, like 296 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:19,840 Speaker 2: I said earlier, copper is in everything. Open your microrea, 297 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 2: there's a copper there. Sit in your car, there's a 298 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 2: copper there. Pick your kitchen, wear a home, there's a 299 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:28,320 Speaker 2: copper there. So the global growth rate is directly tied 300 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 2: to the consumption in copper. And we've seen the central 301 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 2: banks around the world are indicating that they plan to 302 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:39,520 Speaker 2: knower their interest rate, which from historical precedents, actually boost 303 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 2: the consumption of commodities such as copper. So told you 304 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 2: add these fourths together and what do we have. We 305 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 2: think that next year is actually going to be a 306 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:51,239 Speaker 2: very interesting year for doctor Copper. Fascinating. 307 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:53,720 Speaker 1: I mean, it sounds like copper is one of the 308 00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:57,120 Speaker 1: big question marks that exists in the energy transition. I 309 00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 1: suppose another mainstream messle that is also has an important 310 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:04,320 Speaker 1: role to plays aluminium, So you know where is this 311 00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:07,159 Speaker 1: coming from and what is the outlook there in our vu. 312 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:10,399 Speaker 2: I think aluminium is the less that talked about a 313 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 2: cousin or farm copper, because historically it's been very stable. 314 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:17,240 Speaker 2: But that is also likely to change, right and Tom. 315 00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:19,919 Speaker 2: For a couple of reasons. One, if you look at 316 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 2: the alue market, China currently dominated. Right as reasons as 317 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 2: last year China produced about sixty percent of the global 318 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 2: aluminium and that is a good thing if the world 319 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:34,480 Speaker 2: is not worried about supply chain concentration. But then once 320 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,359 Speaker 2: you start looking at a question of what if something 321 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:40,159 Speaker 2: goes wrong with China's capacity, what is the rest of 322 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 2: the world going to do? And Tom, that question has 323 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 2: started rearing its head. Of course, that's sixty percent capacity 324 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 2: China controls. The Chinese government over the last decade has 325 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 2: begun cracking down on the country's emissions. And one of 326 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:58,400 Speaker 2: the ways the government is cracking down on its emissions 327 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:02,920 Speaker 2: is to enforce production targets for some of its highest 328 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:07,760 Speaker 2: pollutant industries. So in this instance, steal an aluminum and cement. 329 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 2: So for aluminum, the government is saying that look, I 330 00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 2: understand demand is going to grow as a result of 331 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:16,919 Speaker 2: the energy transition, as a result of all these factors 332 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:19,400 Speaker 2: we've talked about earlier. But then as a government, we're 333 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,480 Speaker 2: put in a cup not more than forty five million 334 00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 2: tons in terms of what Chinese producers can actually produce domestically. 335 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 2: And to put that in context, the aluminium demand for 336 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:34,040 Speaker 2: last year was one hundred million tons, and that is 337 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 2: actually going to grow to one hundred and twenty in 338 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:40,520 Speaker 2: the next decade. So if we're expecting ten million tons 339 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:43,280 Speaker 2: of growth in demand, and then at the same time, 340 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:45,640 Speaker 2: the biggest producer is saying that I've put a cup 341 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:48,200 Speaker 2: on forty five million, what happens to the rest of 342 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 2: the world. So what we're seeing is that a couple 343 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 2: of Chinese aluminium producers are going to countries like Indonesia 344 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:57,639 Speaker 2: and Guinea to set up new plants, and at the 345 00:18:57,680 --> 00:19:00,440 Speaker 2: same time, India is actually stepping up. For the next 346 00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 2: two decades, we think that India could be one of 347 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 2: the fastest producers of aluminium. So you put all this 348 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:08,600 Speaker 2: together and we think that next year could also be 349 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 2: a very interesting year for aluminium. I want to try 350 00:19:11,480 --> 00:19:14,639 Speaker 2: and understand a little bit more about This is the 351 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 2: Chinese government imposing this cap because they've seen in other 352 00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:22,480 Speaker 2: areas where China has like established dominance, actually domestically there's 353 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 2: been so much oversupply it hasn't necessarily benefited local businesses 354 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,359 Speaker 2: in terms of, you know, the profitability. So is it 355 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:33,199 Speaker 2: it's it almost like they're trying to do to aluminium 356 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:36,640 Speaker 2: what opek does to oil, or is it some other incentsive. Yeah, 357 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 2: I sort of think Omeos could have thought that as 358 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,960 Speaker 2: argue that way that our domestic consumption is weakening. But 359 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:46,399 Speaker 2: then I don't think that really reflects the reality in 360 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:50,200 Speaker 2: the sense that for most Chinese manufacturers, they have actually 361 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 2: evolved from just producing for the domestic market and become 362 00:19:55,640 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 2: actually significant export focused producers. Right take battery c ETL 363 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 2: is actually aggressively expandent globally as opposed to focusing its 364 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:07,800 Speaker 2: growth on the domestic market. So I think that the 365 00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:10,919 Speaker 2: government is aware that most of these manufacturers that are 366 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 2: actually looking for growth externally as opposed to internally. So 367 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 2: I don't think the rush now would necessarily be to 368 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 2: slow down production to catch up to demand. In any case, 369 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,359 Speaker 2: the demand is there and it's still going to gross. 370 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:26,360 Speaker 2: I think in resistance the fact that the country's emissions 371 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:30,200 Speaker 2: were at really rocket levels and they chose really strategy. 372 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:32,680 Speaker 2: It's not different from what the EU is trying, you see, 373 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 2: bum to achieve right to limit their emissions coming from 374 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 2: the steel and aluminium sector. So I think it's probably 375 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:41,959 Speaker 2: less of moderating supply demand to ensure that companies are 376 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 2: producing profitably, and probably more directly to sort of attack 377 00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 2: the soaring emissions, particularly in China. But when it comes 378 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 2: to these things, and never say never got it? 379 00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:56,919 Speaker 1: That's so interesting, you know, looking at this transmiss it's 380 00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,359 Speaker 1: like every little metal has its own little story. It's 381 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 1: like a book of short stories. And so the next story. 382 00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 1: If steel is is king and and copper is the 383 00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:10,919 Speaker 1: ace and aluminium is the queen, then maybe lithium is 384 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,919 Speaker 1: the jack in this in this pack of cards, you know, 385 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:16,920 Speaker 1: a very important card and can mean all sorts of 386 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 1: different things in different situations. So what's happening with lithium? 387 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,360 Speaker 1: So I think lithium is having an interesting time right, 388 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:27,160 Speaker 1: Very few people actually talking about it because Tom, if 389 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:31,160 Speaker 1: you're a commodity, if you're a jack, where your price 390 00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 1: or your value to the market was like what eighty 391 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:37,240 Speaker 1: thousand dollars aren't per Ton, and today you've dropped to 392 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 1: our fifteen thousand per ton. You're no more going to 393 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,480 Speaker 1: be the Dalen, the Dallen child of the industry. So 394 00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 1: I think so maybe it's not a jack anymore. It's 395 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:48,400 Speaker 1: been relegated lower down the But. 396 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,680 Speaker 2: Here's where I probably would argue that don't least hope yet, 397 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,360 Speaker 2: because there's a lot actually happening. So what actually led 398 00:21:55,440 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 2: to that significant dropping prices is one wheel their estimated 399 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,680 Speaker 2: in some instances, and it's not because the models were wrong. 400 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 2: It's just because the reality changed, especially after COVID prices 401 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 2: were high for autos, governmentary jews and subsidies, and people 402 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 2: focus more on everyday consumption as opposed to significant investments 403 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:21,200 Speaker 2: like US. So demand obviously slowed in a lot of 404 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 2: major economies around the world, and supply was still cranking 405 00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:28,199 Speaker 2: up right. New product jets in China, new projects in Zimbabwe, 406 00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:32,360 Speaker 2: and even in Nigeria were coming online. So all these 407 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:36,200 Speaker 2: accelerators supply coincided with the time where demand was slowing down, 408 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,560 Speaker 2: and so that unfortunately meant that the market tipped into 409 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 2: a surplus. The three things have actually happened this year 410 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:45,920 Speaker 2: that we talked about significantly their report and that could 411 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:50,199 Speaker 2: potentially tip the market next year and beyond. One of 412 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 2: it is that in China, most of the producers in 413 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,760 Speaker 2: China managed to find a way to make a very 414 00:22:56,800 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 2: special deposit type called lipidolitely viable. Right, So, prior to this, 415 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,960 Speaker 2: the two major sources of lithium menu are Brian water 416 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 2: in South America, Chile, armagentine and the rest and the 417 00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 2: spodymin hard rock deposits that we're familiar with in Australia. 418 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,159 Speaker 2: But then the Chinese has always had what we call 419 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,480 Speaker 2: the lipidolite and they managed to make it economically viable 420 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,840 Speaker 2: through renovation, through address and some of the bottlenecks in 421 00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:27,119 Speaker 2: its manufacturing, and that brought us some significant capacity online. 422 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,600 Speaker 2: And mind you, I will give you an extra in 423 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:34,240 Speaker 2: fun fact, today lithium actually co exists with the same 424 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 2: raw material we get ceramics from. So a lot of 425 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 2: these ceramic producers in China were actually not just extracting 426 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 2: ceramics but the way extracting litheo. And as a result 427 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:48,920 Speaker 2: of that, I think these producers went far ahead of regulators, 428 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,679 Speaker 2: and regulators decided to play catch up this year so 429 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 2: earlier this year the government actually enforced action on some 430 00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:59,119 Speaker 2: of these producers to stop production, and we're hearing that 431 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:01,360 Speaker 2: next year the GAP is actually going to change their 432 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,399 Speaker 2: regulations for them, because once you become a left your minor, 433 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:08,120 Speaker 2: the regulations that surround you changing, so that could potentially 434 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,960 Speaker 2: narrow the stupluss. That is number one. The second thing 435 00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:13,720 Speaker 2: that could also potentially narrow the stoppluss is the fact 436 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:17,000 Speaker 2: that we've seen electric vehicle demands slow down the last 437 00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,359 Speaker 2: two years. But home something interesting is happening in the 438 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 2: stationary storage industry. We have had to actually revise our 439 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:27,680 Speaker 2: commulative stationary storage demand over the last twelve months alone. 440 00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,320 Speaker 2: So if you asked me last year how much tationary 441 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,119 Speaker 2: storage will be deployed between now and twenty fifty, my 442 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:36,200 Speaker 2: answer to you would have been three point nine tarot hours. 443 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 2: Fast forward to today, we've actually revised that view to 444 00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:44,040 Speaker 2: five point two, so one point two extra terrorurds will 445 00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:48,960 Speaker 2: be deployed in order to support solar and wind facilities 446 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 2: around the world. So that has actually given their literal 447 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:56,240 Speaker 2: industry a tailwind for it to now increase its demand 448 00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,000 Speaker 2: to be able to accommodate all that extra supply that 449 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,440 Speaker 2: we saw online. And then the final thing we also 450 00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:05,960 Speaker 2: seen is that we actually seen a lot of these 451 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:11,440 Speaker 2: emerging technologies, like directly tom restraction probably become commercially viable 452 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,359 Speaker 2: towards the end of this decade, and that could also 453 00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:16,639 Speaker 2: serve as a game change out to the industry. So 454 00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:18,920 Speaker 2: you put all these three things together, I would not 455 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:22,720 Speaker 2: relegate lithium from being the duck. I still think that 456 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,199 Speaker 2: there's still got some life in it. It's just waiting 457 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 2: for all these three ethers to create a pephastom to 458 00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:29,560 Speaker 2: support its growth. 459 00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:33,120 Speaker 1: Got it. Just one last quick question. You know, we've 460 00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,640 Speaker 1: looked at, you know, some of the major metals, and 461 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:39,879 Speaker 1: we've spoken in brief about some of the more niche 462 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 1: metals that are still critical. Nonetheless, how do countries and 463 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:48,600 Speaker 1: regions sit in terms of their exposure to these different metals? 464 00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,120 Speaker 1: You know, there's sort of the geopolitical angle on all 465 00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,920 Speaker 1: of this. So if I could answer you in one sentence, 466 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:57,520 Speaker 1: I would say China still dominates, but probably not for 467 00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:02,880 Speaker 1: long for some specific commodities. So we there's something new 468 00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:06,120 Speaker 1: this year in our transitions at Look twenty twenty five, 469 00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:09,720 Speaker 1: where we looked at what five countries are doing to 470 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:11,440 Speaker 1: support global diversification. 471 00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 2: So we looked at Australia, we looked at Brazil, we 472 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 2: looked at Canada, and then we look at Indonesia and 473 00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 2: South Africa, and each of these were actually approaching diversification 474 00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 2: from a very different angle. So for a country like Canada, 475 00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:29,520 Speaker 2: the government has decided to directly invest in new projects 476 00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 2: for their domestic producers to compete with China, with Indonesia, 477 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:37,400 Speaker 2: then probably do not have that fiscal headroom to provide 478 00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:40,520 Speaker 2: direct investments today. So what they're doing is that, look, 479 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:44,600 Speaker 2: we would rather go the delayed gratification route, where we 480 00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 2: would deny ourselves tax revenue for ten years, give you 481 00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,399 Speaker 2: a tax holiday. We would also enforce you at the 482 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:53,520 Speaker 2: same time to use our resources to build a downstream 483 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:55,600 Speaker 2: so you don't have to go all the way to 484 00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:58,760 Speaker 2: China to process eespiners. And ironically it was actually this 485 00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:02,760 Speaker 2: the Chinese manufacturers that to go on Indonesia on this offer. 486 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:04,919 Speaker 2: So I think there are a lot of those countries 487 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,560 Speaker 2: that do. In brazila's going a totally different route and 488 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:09,960 Speaker 2: that could potentially pay off, I don't know in a 489 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:13,159 Speaker 2: decade time. But the short answer to your question is 490 00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:16,200 Speaker 2: that China has to dominate, but probably not for long 491 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:18,040 Speaker 2: in certain specific commodities. 492 00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:22,200 Speaker 1: Crazy, This has been a fascinating conversation. And like I say, 493 00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 1: when we think about transition metals, it's like a book 494 00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:26,560 Speaker 1: of short stories and none of some of them are 495 00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:29,359 Speaker 1: not so short stories as well, but there's a lot 496 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:33,159 Speaker 1: of variety and still some emerging like common themes. Like 497 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 1: you say, you know the dominance of China for the meantime, 498 00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 1: but I like this idea that actually, as we're still 499 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,840 Speaker 1: in the phase of to some extent in some applications, 500 00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:46,919 Speaker 1: still waiting to see which are ultimately going to be 501 00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:49,480 Speaker 1: the key metals and the dynamics of the next few 502 00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:50,520 Speaker 1: years will will. 503 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:53,040 Speaker 2: Settle that you know before I go, Actually, if you 504 00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,359 Speaker 2: can give me just a few seconds, it's a bigger 505 00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:57,359 Speaker 2: report for those who would ever get to read it, 506 00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:00,359 Speaker 2: over one hundred page report, and I know, I said 507 00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,199 Speaker 2: I quite a lot. That is a weak of a 508 00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:06,280 Speaker 2: bigger team at Bloomberg, and I wanted to use this. 509 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,560 Speaker 2: Appreciate thank you to everyone who worked on it, and. 510 00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, awesome, Crazy, thank you for joining today, Thank you 511 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 1: for having me Tom. Today's episode of Switched On was 512 00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:28,280 Speaker 1: produced by cam Gray with production assistants from Kamala Shelling. 513 00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg NIF is a service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP 514 00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:34,800 Speaker 1: and its affiliates. This recording does not constitute, nor should 515 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:38,000 Speaker 1: it be construed, as investment, a vice, investment recommendations, or 516 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 1: a recommendation as to an investment or other strategy. Bloomberg 517 00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,600 Speaker 1: ANIF should not be considered as information sufficient upon which 518 00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:47,880 Speaker 1: to base an investment decision. Neither Bloomberg Finance LP nor 519 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:51,240 Speaker 1: any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty as 520 00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:54,160 Speaker 1: to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in 521 00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,760 Speaker 1: this recording, and any liability as a result of this 522 00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:58,600 Speaker 1: recording is expressly disclaimed.