1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:08,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:12,920 Speaker 2: I am worried about Intel, No, for real. 3 00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 1: We're recording this on October first, So I'm worried about 4 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 1: some other things. But sure, sure, no. 5 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 2: There's plenty to worry about in the world. But like, 6 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:21,640 Speaker 2: I'm worried about. 7 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 3: Intel specifically, because it's all nice to talk about industrial 8 00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:29,960 Speaker 3: policy and we're going to build these you know, build 9 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 3: out all these industries, et cetera. But here we have 10 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 3: one of the true industrial giants, one of the flagship 11 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:39,479 Speaker 3: companies of the United States getting a lot of support, 12 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:42,760 Speaker 3: are leading company in the field of semiconductors, which is 13 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:45,919 Speaker 3: a major strategic priority for the US, and they do 14 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:47,840 Speaker 3: not seem to be doing. 15 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:48,520 Speaker 4: Well at all. 16 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:51,639 Speaker 2: The stock is absolutely dismal. They're cutting jobs. 17 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 3: If this is the flagship company like them and Boeing 18 00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 3: loomed very large in my head about I guess what 19 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 3: I would say is like, I don't know if corporate 20 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 3: rot is too strong of a word, but yeah, like 21 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 3: corporate rot. 22 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:06,199 Speaker 1: Not to add to your anxiety, but did you also 23 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 1: see some of the headlines coming out of North Carolina 24 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:10,320 Speaker 1: about quartz sand. 25 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know what that's all about. 26 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,039 Speaker 1: It's kind of an interesting one. So after Hurricane Helene, 27 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 1: there's a town called Spruce Pine where apparently most of 28 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:23,480 Speaker 1: the world's supply of pure quartz sand comes from, and 29 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 1: that could have an impact on the production of semiconductors. 30 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 1: So we get to I guess we get to unveil 31 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 1: the bullhorn for the bullwhip effect. Again. 32 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:36,399 Speaker 2: We're not doing this. Apparently we are doing this again. 33 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 2: I did a deadlift. 34 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 1: One two, Jimmy okay, uh barges. 35 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 3: This isn't after school Special, except. 36 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 1: I've decided I'm going to base my entire personality going 37 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 1: forward on campaigning for a strategic pork reserve in the US. 38 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 2: Where's the best costa? 39 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 1: These are the important question? Is it robots taking over 40 00:01:58,760 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 1: the world? 41 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:02,040 Speaker 3: No, I think that like in a couple of years, 42 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:04,520 Speaker 3: the AI will do a really good job of making 43 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 3: the odd Launch podcast And people say, I don't really 44 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 3: need to listen to Joe and Tracy anymore. 45 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 2: We do have touching, the perfect welcome to lots More 46 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 2: where we catch up with friends about what's going on 47 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 2: right now. 48 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:21,919 Speaker 1: Because even when Odd Lots is over, there's always lots 49 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 1: more And. 50 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 2: We really do have the perfect guest stacy, what's going 51 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:30,279 Speaker 2: wrong until. 52 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 4: What's not going wrong? At Intel? Right now? 53 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:37,679 Speaker 5: They're in a tough spot, right, I mean they are 54 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 5: embarking on a very risky and capital intensive strategy. I 55 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 5: say embarking, but frankly they've been along on the strategy 56 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 5: for quite a few years. 57 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:51,399 Speaker 3: Yeah, because CEO Pat Gelsinger came in in twenty twenty one, 58 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 3: and so we're like at least three years into what 59 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 3: is supposedly an embarkment on a new strategy. And if 60 00:02:58,280 --> 00:02:59,920 Speaker 3: I just look at the stock price, it's lower than 61 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:00,960 Speaker 3: was in twenty fifteen. 62 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, in fact, you know it's I actually look, I 63 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 5: launched on the stock in June of two thousand and nine. 64 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:09,720 Speaker 5: I think it was fifteen dollars and ninety four cents, 65 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 5: so fifteen or sixteen years ago, and it's. 66 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 4: Not that far off of there. Now. 67 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 5: It's had a bit of a balance in the recent weeks. 68 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:18,360 Speaker 5: We can talk about why, but in general they're in 69 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 5: a tough spot. Yeah, I mean the biggest issue that 70 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:22,919 Speaker 5: they're having, and we can argue, is the. 71 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 4: Strategy the right one or the wrong one. That's a 72 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 4: discussion we. 73 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 5: Can have, but it might be the biggest issue is 74 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:32,640 Speaker 5: just the core business that was supposed to support them 75 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 5: as they rolled that strategy out is no longer really 76 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 5: sufficient to support it anymore. 77 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 4: But they maybe too far along their path to stop. Right. 78 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 5: The whole idea was, you know, we're gonna be doubling 79 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 5: down on manufacturing. 80 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 4: We're going to building lots of factories in the US 81 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:48,560 Speaker 4: and everywhere else. 82 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 5: We're going to be building up a significant third party 83 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 5: foundry business to make parts not just for ourselves but 84 00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 5: for other third party customers as well. We're getting a 85 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 5: lot of external funding to do this, and you know, 86 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 5: eventually we'll get there and it's going to be great. 87 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 5: But that the problem is that the you know, these 88 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 5: things are very you know, intensive, like they cost a 89 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 5: lot of money, and because of the deterioration that we've 90 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 5: seen in Intel's core business for a variety of reasons, 91 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 5: the macro's not been great. You know, they were over 92 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 5: earning as many were during COVID and and that bubble 93 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:22,600 Speaker 5: is popped. They're still losing share in many of their 94 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 5: key markets. They've completely missed the AI revolution, which is 95 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 5: one of the few areas of semiconductors today that's actually 96 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 5: really on fire. And they effectively have nothing to show 97 00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 5: in that as and and those markets are starting to 98 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:36,280 Speaker 5: eat into some of the core stuff that Intel does. 99 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,599 Speaker 5: That core business doesn't doesn't really support that the path 100 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 5: that they're on anymore, even after the subsidies and and 101 00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:46,279 Speaker 5: frankly doing some other things that are probably not you 102 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 5: wouldn't want to do if you didn't have to. They've 103 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:49,880 Speaker 5: been selling parts of some of their factories to private 104 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 5: equity and getting cash for that. But even after all 105 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:54,159 Speaker 5: of that, you know, it's still costing them like a 106 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 5: bunch of money that they don't really have anymore. They 107 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:59,599 Speaker 5: put out some targets recently that sort of showed a 108 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:02,840 Speaker 5: path to you know, a better companies, but in twenty thirty, 109 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:04,360 Speaker 5: it's twenty twenty four. 110 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 4: Right now, that's a long ways away. 111 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:08,600 Speaker 5: There's a lot of wood to chop between now and then, 112 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 5: even if they can manage to execute on that. 113 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:11,719 Speaker 4: So they're in a tough spot. 114 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:14,680 Speaker 1: So we are speaking with Stacey Raskin, who is of 115 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: course the semiconductor analyst over at Bernstein. We've spoken to 116 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:22,240 Speaker 1: him before. We also have McKenzie Hawkins, who is our 117 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:27,920 Speaker 1: colleague here at Bloomberg. McKenzie, how existential are the next Oh, 118 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 1: I guess, let's see October, November, December, next three months. 119 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:32,479 Speaker 1: For Intel. 120 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 6: This is a crucial stretch for Intel, in part because 121 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 6: it's a crucial stretch for the Biden administration. The company 122 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 6: is the single largest beneficiary of this massive US effort 123 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 6: to resource semiconductor manufacturing through Call twenty twenty two Chips 124 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 6: in Science Act. They're in line to receive eight and 125 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:54,279 Speaker 6: a half billion dollars in grants for projects across four 126 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 6: US states for commercial partners. They're also supposed to get 127 00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 6: three billion dollars to make chips for the Pentagon and 128 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 6: eleven billion dollars in loans, not to mention twenty five 129 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 6: percent tax breaks on their US investments. There isn't really 130 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:08,839 Speaker 6: a fear that the broader SEPSTY program will go away 131 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:13,720 Speaker 6: after President Biden leaves office. But Intel's been negotiating this 132 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 6: award package with officials in the Biden administration for well 133 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 6: over a year now. It's not yet finalized, and they 134 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 6: really want to prove two officials that yes, we need 135 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:26,719 Speaker 6: to sign these documents. We want to get money out 136 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,559 Speaker 6: the door, ideally by the end of this administration, because 137 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:33,280 Speaker 6: who really knows what will come after January, and they're 138 00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 6: all trying to do that before they really really prove 139 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 6: in the technology stack on which these awards are premised. 140 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 3: Stacy two questions in your when you think of Intel, 141 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:47,719 Speaker 3: how important is the aid from the US government to 142 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:50,839 Speaker 3: its future? And when you think of the US government, 143 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:54,800 Speaker 3: how important is Intel to the policy objectives of the 144 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 3: United States. 145 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 5: They're clearly both important. The aid from the government is 146 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:02,479 Speaker 5: helping them. And by the way, I will say, I 147 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 5: don't think they're in a critical situation from a cash 148 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:07,840 Speaker 5: standpoint right now, partially because of some. 149 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:08,799 Speaker 4: Of those government funds. 150 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 5: So if you add up what they've just done, some 151 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 5: of the were structuring that they've just announced, the CAPEX cuts, 152 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 5: the op X cuts, the suspended dividend, they suspended their 153 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 5: dividend right, the governmental funds both from the tax credit 154 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 5: as well as the grants of those rolling as well 155 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:26,120 Speaker 5: as some of those private equity funds. It's something like 156 00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 5: forty billion dollars of incremental cash that lends on the 157 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 5: balance sheet like through the end of twenty five of 158 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:34,560 Speaker 5: twenty twenty five, versus not doing anything at all. So 159 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 5: like again, I think their cash position is okay because 160 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:40,280 Speaker 5: of this stuff. I don't think they're desperate. It's partially 161 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:42,960 Speaker 5: be due to those government funds. I will say, however, 162 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 5: to get those grants, it's not like they don't get 163 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 5: an eight and a half billion dollar check like they're 164 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 5: milestone base. They have to do the projects and build 165 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:51,119 Speaker 5: them out and hit the milestones and then that money 166 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 5: get gets apportioned. But that money is important in terms 167 00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 5: of like how important is Intel for the for the 168 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 5: government's efforts. I mean, it's clearly very important. Although I 169 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 5: will say, you know, if if the goal is really 170 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 5: to get a ton of leading edge manufacturing capacity built 171 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 5: in the US, you could argue if the government was 172 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 5: only goal oriented, maybe picking Intel as their champion was 173 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 5: not the best way to go. There are other players 174 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 5: that you could have encouraged, who whether they're all building here, 175 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:22,600 Speaker 5: but you could have encouraged, for example, somebody like a 176 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:24,679 Speaker 5: TSMC to build a lot more here than they're doing. 177 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 4: Now that being set, we're not just goal already. 178 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 5: Other like politics is a huge piece. It's not politically 179 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 5: viable to do something like that. Intel is the only 180 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 5: US based company that can even hope to build out 181 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 5: a leading edge footprint, and so I understand why they've 182 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 5: been named the national champion, but I mean, it's just 183 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:43,679 Speaker 5: given the issues that they're having, it does sort of 184 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:48,440 Speaker 5: throw the eventual success of the program, especially especially around 185 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 5: the leading edge side, into a little bit of a loop, 186 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 5: like we'll have to see how things go for them. 187 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 6: And you think it's important to remember here. Intel is 188 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:57,560 Speaker 6: the largest beneficiary of the Chips Act, but definitely not 189 00:08:57,600 --> 00:08:59,319 Speaker 6: the only one. The US is in line to give 190 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:02,960 Speaker 6: more than six billion dollars to TSMC, the unambiguous industry leader. 191 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 6: There's also more than six billion dollars lated for Samsung, 192 00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:08,720 Speaker 6: which is building leading edge capacity in Texas. But Intel 193 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:13,000 Speaker 6: is really important one because the Pentagon has decided that 194 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:16,319 Speaker 6: we need an American company to make cutting edge chips 195 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:20,439 Speaker 6: for military and intelligence purposes. They've had early conversations about 196 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:23,040 Speaker 6: buying those chips from foreign owned foundries that are on 197 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:26,960 Speaker 6: US soil. It's crucial that we're having TSMC building three 198 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:28,880 Speaker 6: fabs in Arizona, and that was a commitment that the 199 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:31,679 Speaker 6: US government got from them with the carot of these subsidies. 200 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:35,199 Speaker 6: But Intel, I mean, Gelsinger kind of hinged his entire 201 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 6: turnaround plan on this US manufacturing expansion was a major 202 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 6: lobbyist pushing for the Ships Act, riding the coattails of 203 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 6: that subsidy program. And yes, you know this says really 204 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 6: high political stakes for the Biden administration and for industrial 205 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 6: policy writ large. You know, I think it's a feature, 206 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 6: not a bug of the program that Intel hasn't gotten 207 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 6: any money yet. As Stacy mentioned, these are milestone based awards. 208 00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 6: You know, companies will get a tranch of money and 209 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 6: they have you know, first wafers out of their facilities. 210 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 6: Look at a trants of money when facilities are completed. 211 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 6: But for a company that is, you know, not acutely 212 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 6: running out of cash, but not in a great financial 213 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:13,320 Speaker 6: position like Intel, it really matters when that money actually flows. 214 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,320 Speaker 6: And the US government is still vetting the viability of 215 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 6: these manufacturing plans in the first place before they're willing 216 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 6: to sign a final agreement. All they've announced is a 217 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 6: preliminary award. 218 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 1: Is there a viable alternative to Intel? I get the 219 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:40,680 Speaker 1: sense that maybe there isn't. 220 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 5: I mean, there are three companies in theory that can 221 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 5: do leading edge semiconductor manufacturing global It's TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. 222 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 5: And of those three, only really TSMC is hitting out 223 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:56,960 Speaker 5: of the park in terms of executing to their roadmaps. 224 00:10:57,000 --> 00:10:58,800 Speaker 5: Like Intel, cole is having problems and again we can 225 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 5: talk about their roadmap and where that may be going, 226 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:03,960 Speaker 5: but they've been having issues and Samsung as well as 227 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:07,319 Speaker 5: also having issues, Like this stuff is not easy, Like yeah, I. 228 00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:11,960 Speaker 3: Always Samsung by the way, by the way, by the way, 229 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 3: on the day we're recording this October first, Bloomberg reporting 230 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 3: some substantial layoffs at Samsung and they're losing some shared 231 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 3: to competitors like Skhnix, et cetera in certain lines. So yeah, 232 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 3: just to talk about it's not just Intel having the struggles. Okay, 233 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 3: keep going, Yeah. 234 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:29,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, so it's the stuff is hard to do. Again, 235 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:31,440 Speaker 5: I'm always amazed that any of it works at all. 236 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 4: But to McKenzie's probably one of the three. 237 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:37,440 Speaker 1: I mean, the administration has said they want an American 238 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:40,600 Speaker 1: company to do this, and so I guess I'm wondering, like, 239 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 1: are there ways that they could structure something with TSMC 240 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 1: or Samsung or does it have to be an American company, 241 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 1: in which case it seems like Intel is the only option. 242 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:52,560 Speaker 5: Yeah, if if you want an American company to do 243 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 5: this stuff, they are the only option. It may be 244 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,560 Speaker 5: helpful to talk about their roadmap. So Patt has talked 245 00:11:57,559 --> 00:11:59,920 Speaker 5: a lot about what he calls five nodes in four years, 246 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,520 Speaker 5: and according to Intel, they're executing, although if you kind 247 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 5: of look at it, it's kind of kind of questionable. 248 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 5: I mean, they're delivering what they're calling seven animeter today 249 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 5: in volume. That's the old what they used to call ten. 250 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 5: They are now starting to ship Intel four animeter. It's 251 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 5: a single product that's called Meteor Lake, and in fact 252 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:20,079 Speaker 5: is it's a client PC product. It has a tiled architecture. 253 00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 5: There was one tile on there that's on Intel four 254 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 5: and the other three tiles are made it actually outsourced. 255 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 4: They made it TSMC, and. 256 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 5: The margins of that product are not very good and 257 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 5: it's actually it impacted their margins in the most recent quarter. 258 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:33,199 Speaker 5: They're getting ready to now to ship another client product 259 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 5: which is called Lunar Lake, which actually from some of 260 00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:37,520 Speaker 5: the ben shorts looks like a decent product, but it's 261 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:40,680 Speaker 5: one hundred percent outsource. There's no Intel technology and process 262 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,400 Speaker 5: technology and it all it's all made at TSMC, and 263 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 5: they've talked about that further impacting their margins as we 264 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:48,839 Speaker 5: go into next year. The big one and I think 265 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:50,679 Speaker 5: the one that Pat is kind of betting the company 266 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 5: on it is what's called eighteen A. 267 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 4: So there were two flavors. There was a twenty eight. 268 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 5: Process that was supposed to come out with a product 269 00:12:56,400 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 5: called arrow Lake that they have canceled. So the five 270 00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:01,839 Speaker 5: nodes in four years of the canceled they're going to 271 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:02,560 Speaker 5: jump straight. 272 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 4: To eighteen A. 273 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 5: Their characterization of that is an eighteen A is so 274 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:07,439 Speaker 5: good they don't need twenty get twenty eight, So I 275 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 5: guess we'll have to see eighteen A in theory is 276 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 5: when they start bringing volume back from the foundries back 277 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 5: into their own fabs, which in theory is supposed to 278 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:17,560 Speaker 5: make their cost structure better. And if you think about 279 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 5: the dream case that they laid out, the idea was, 280 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 5: we do this, we bring all this stuff back. It 281 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 5: makes our margins better because the cost are better because 282 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 5: we're now internal. It's a better process, so we can 283 00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:31,440 Speaker 5: take back market share and we can charge more for 284 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 5: our product because we can design better products. And it 285 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 5: gives customers like lots of confidence that things are going good, 286 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:39,120 Speaker 5: so they're confident to put a lot of volume with us, 287 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 5: and we grow from there. And they talked about hitting 288 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 5: the manufacturing business kind of hitting break even around twenty 289 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 5: twenty seven and then growing to like very sizeable amounts 290 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:48,559 Speaker 5: by twenty thirty, so that. 291 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:51,640 Speaker 4: That's the dream. It's all riding on the success of 292 00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:52,120 Speaker 4: eighteen A. 293 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 5: Many of the sort of you know, kind of like 294 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 5: supply change ets and channels that can pick up for 295 00:13:57,360 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 5: eight and right, they're kind of mixed at best, I 296 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:02,640 Speaker 5: would say. On the positive, they just announced Amazon as 297 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 5: a customer, and I guess Amazon was willing to have 298 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:06,560 Speaker 5: their name attached to it, so I guess that's good. 299 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 4: It doesn't look like it's a high volume part. 300 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:09,839 Speaker 5: I think it's going to take time for this to 301 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,600 Speaker 5: ramp and I guess we're just waiting around and seeing 302 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:14,440 Speaker 5: and that's probably about how long they have. You know, 303 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 5: in theory, eighteen A is supposed to be here next year. 304 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 5: They've got a low volume server part called Clearwater Force 305 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 5: that launches in the first half of next year. Panther Lake, 306 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 5: which is a higher volume client product, launches in the 307 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 5: second half of next year. 308 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 4: I guess it'll be volume, real volume in twenty twenty six. 309 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 5: So you got about a year a year and a 310 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 5: half to see whether or not they can actually manage 311 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 5: to make stuff in a cost effective manner for themselves 312 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 5: on eighteen A and then we'll see if that drives 313 00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 5: volume or not. But that's about how long they have 314 00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:44,640 Speaker 5: I think twelve months, maybe twelve to eighteen months, and 315 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:46,920 Speaker 5: then we'll see if this works or not. But at 316 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 5: this point we don't know. 317 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:51,480 Speaker 6: And you know, Intel's ability to secure major customer commitments 318 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 6: is of course a really key metric for US government 319 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 6: officials that are trying to evaluate the viability of there 320 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:58,680 Speaker 6: should we be giving them eight and a half billion 321 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:01,520 Speaker 6: dollars of tax payer money for commercial manufacturing. I mean, 322 00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 6: they already have three billion dollars set aside for the 323 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 6: Pentagon as a customer. But if you talk to anybody 324 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 6: in the chip industry, the Defense Department is a really 325 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 6: difficult customer. Foundaries that have been in a secure Pentagon 326 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 6: supply chain in the past of struggle to make a 327 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 6: return on products manufactured. Those fabs and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, 328 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:21,120 Speaker 6: in many ways, her legacy and her image and her 329 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:23,120 Speaker 6: the kind of main purpose of her department is riding 330 00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:25,520 Speaker 6: a lot of the success of this program, and therefore, 331 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 6: in part on the success of Intel not in a 332 00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 6: whole She's been calling up chip makers and saying, would 333 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 6: you consider using Intel fabs? She asked in Vidia, she 334 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 6: asked AMD to consider manufacturing at Intel's ohio facilities, and 335 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:40,840 Speaker 6: you know, in Vidias in the earliest stages of evaluating 336 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 6: whether that's a possibility. AMD is happy with their current supplier, 337 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 6: which is TSMC. And so you know, as much as 338 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 6: the government really wants intels to succeed, the industry wants 339 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 6: intels to succeed, even TSMC does. Intel's a four to 340 00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 6: five billion dollar customer of TSMC's. The custom comments just 341 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 6: aren't there right now, and. 342 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 5: There can't really you can't anything infirment. So you know, 343 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:03,800 Speaker 5: if they can deliver, yeah, right, So I think anyone 344 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,240 Speaker 5: that wants leading edge is going to evaluate them, like 345 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 5: why wouldn't you, Like you want second sources, you want 346 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,520 Speaker 5: geographically secure supply. But I mean, if they can't deliver, 347 00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 5: they can't deliver. If they can deliver, they can And 348 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,440 Speaker 5: that's what we're waiting for. Throwing whatever money you want 349 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 5: to throw at it, it isn't going to solve that problem. 350 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 3: This gets back to like some of our first ever 351 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 3: episodes that we did on semiconductors years ago. We're just 352 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 3: about this basic challenge that like it's brutal to get 353 00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 3: hot yields. That there's all these processes and if you 354 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 3: get it, if you get every process at ninety nine 355 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 3: point nine to nine percent, right, that still doesn't get 356 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 3: you the yields that you need to get. And so 357 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:47,360 Speaker 3: their strategy is like, Okay, you're building for this product, 358 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 3: you're building for this end consumer, you're building, you're doing 359 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 3: in house, and then there's execution and the big question 360 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 3: mark is just this execution question and we just still 361 00:16:57,280 --> 00:16:57,680 Speaker 3: don't know. 362 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, we don't know this. This again, even under the 363 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 5: best of circumstances is very difficult. You know, they're going 364 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:05,359 Speaker 5: through a lot of other turmoil right now. So they 365 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 5: have clearly in the midst of a big layoff. Yeah, 366 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:10,639 Speaker 5: they're actually like canceling some of these projects. So remember 367 00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 5: they weren't just trying to build in the US. They 368 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 5: had a big Germany project with other subsidies that they 369 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:17,320 Speaker 5: just paused. They had a packaging plant in Poland. I 370 00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:19,960 Speaker 5: think they just paused. So they don't need the capacity, 371 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 5: right and they don't have the money. 372 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 4: To pay for it. Even with the subsidies. 373 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:26,240 Speaker 5: So there's a lot of like other like internal turmoil 374 00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 5: that is going on there right now while they are 375 00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:30,959 Speaker 5: still trying to execute on everything else that they have 376 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:31,239 Speaker 5: to do. 377 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 4: Like it doesn't make it easier. 378 00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 6: You know, this is an intensely cyclical industry, right and 379 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:37,560 Speaker 6: you know, when we think about what does you know, 380 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:40,440 Speaker 6: Intel's success or failures say about the design of US 381 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,520 Speaker 6: industrial policy, you have to remember the ship sacked. Biden 382 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 6: signed the ship sacked two years ago. That was sort 383 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:48,199 Speaker 6: of at the earliest stages of the AI boom, and 384 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,439 Speaker 6: were there were maybe warning signs about Intel, certainly, but 385 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:53,520 Speaker 6: not kind of the flashing red light that we see now. 386 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 6: And so government officials not known necessarily for being super 387 00:17:57,119 --> 00:18:00,040 Speaker 6: nimble or having to evaluate that in real time. We 388 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 6: had a lot of preliminary announcements earlier this year. We 389 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 6: saw basically a multi billion dollar announcement a week in 390 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:10,359 Speaker 6: March and April, and markets change, company dynamics change. And 391 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 6: I think the challenge is that, you know, there's a 392 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:15,399 Speaker 6: sort of lack of understanding even among folks who pay 393 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 6: attention to this sometimes in Washington, about whether the money 394 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 6: has actually gone out the door. It hasn't but the 395 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 6: public is expecting that. Intel is expecting that. I mean, 396 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 6: the state of Ohio is investing two billion dollars in 397 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 6: Intel's Ohio facility. Those plans are contingent on getting money 398 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 6: from the US government, but officials also have to evaluate, 399 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 6: you know, if a company, you know, Intel or anybody else, 400 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:37,680 Speaker 6: isn't able to execute on the timeline that we set out, 401 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 6: at the scale that we set out, at what point 402 00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 6: do we start talking about other options of where to 403 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:44,879 Speaker 6: spend this money. Thirty nine billion dollars set aside for grants, 404 00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 6: that's a lot of taxpayer dollars. 405 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:02,440 Speaker 1: I just remember, the first time we ever had Stacy 406 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 1: on was back in twenty twenty, which is kind of 407 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:09,360 Speaker 1: a blur for me. But Stacy, you were bearish on 408 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 1: Intel even back then. In fact, I think like the 409 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 1: title of the episode was something like, why the US's 410 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 1: number one like semiconductor company is doing terribly something like that. 411 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:26,160 Speaker 1: I'm curious, in twenty twenty four, is there anything that 412 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:29,880 Speaker 1: would that you could possibly see that would induce you 413 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 1: to be bullish on Intel? Like what would they need 414 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 1: to do to prove their business case? 415 00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 4: Yeah? 416 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 5: I mean, look, so they gave some targets. But like 417 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:43,880 Speaker 5: I said, which we're twenty thirty, my biggest takeaway from 418 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:45,639 Speaker 5: that was from those presidents was come. 419 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:47,399 Speaker 4: Back in twenty thirty. Right, call me twenty thirty. 420 00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:50,160 Speaker 5: But if you sort of if I sort of started 421 00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 5: to articulate some of that dream thesis earlier, but if 422 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,680 Speaker 5: you think about it, you know it was, like I said, 423 00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:58,320 Speaker 5: they execute on the new road maps, they take market share, 424 00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:01,080 Speaker 5: you know, they build out their foundry business. 425 00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:02,439 Speaker 4: And if you look at the targets, and again I'm 426 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:03,320 Speaker 4: going to refrain from. 427 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:08,200 Speaker 5: Giving like investment conclusions on this podcast, but just factually, 428 00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 5: what they presented for their twenty thirty model had them 429 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 5: doing roughly one hundred billion dollars in total revenues, roughly 430 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 5: sixty billion on their product groups, forty billion on their 431 00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 5: foundry manufacturing side. Of that forty billion, twenty five billion 432 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:22,879 Speaker 5: was internal revenues. 433 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:24,359 Speaker 4: What they're actually doing now, by the way, is they. 434 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:29,959 Speaker 5: Are charging their internal groups effectively a price to use 435 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:32,399 Speaker 5: the manufacturing base. So the internal does have to buy 436 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 5: the wafers from the internal manufacturing when they're using and 437 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,720 Speaker 5: the net revenue nets out at the end. But you 438 00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:41,199 Speaker 5: had forty billion in foundry twenty five billion internal and 439 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:44,040 Speaker 5: fifteen billion external, So it'd be if you nit up 440 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 5: the twenty five billion, it would be seventy five billion 441 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:48,080 Speaker 5: in total revenues. The company's doing a little over fifty 442 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:52,440 Speaker 5: right now, maybe fifty billion. That fifteen billion in external 443 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,000 Speaker 5: foundry revenue would be double what Samsung does in foundry 444 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 5: revenues today. 445 00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:56,920 Speaker 4: So it's pretty big. 446 00:20:57,240 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 5: But if you start to run numbers and then they 447 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:01,360 Speaker 5: give some margin targets, you start to run numbers like that, 448 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 5: it looks like a good it's good. Like they're they're 449 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 5: generating cash, they're making profits, right, and that would be 450 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:10,080 Speaker 5: you know, that would be a scenario where where things 451 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:12,760 Speaker 5: could be great, right. I think on the other side 452 00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:14,120 Speaker 5: of it, you know, I get a lot of calls 453 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:16,800 Speaker 5: these days unlike the breakup value, Like what would it 454 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 5: be would it call? 455 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, the qualcot, Yeah the QUI. 456 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:22,760 Speaker 4: Let's talk about that because that was in the news recently. 457 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:26,320 Speaker 5: There was a newsflow that suggested Qualcom may be interested 458 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 5: in buying them, and we run the numbers on it, 459 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 5: as I want to do, and look, I can argue 460 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:37,640 Speaker 5: for Qualcom potentially, you know, there's there's a diversification strategy 461 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:40,480 Speaker 5: Qualcom's revenues are if I have the licensing and it's 462 00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:43,200 Speaker 5: eighty percent handsets, and there's a diversification story there for Qualcom, 463 00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:46,119 Speaker 5: but it is slow going. And you know, Intel, if 464 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:47,920 Speaker 5: I just look at the product side of it, you know, look, 465 00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:50,000 Speaker 5: if you just slap them together, you'd have a company 466 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:53,159 Speaker 5: that was I don't know, a third handsets, a third client, 467 00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,640 Speaker 5: maybe fifteen percent data center. You'd have some auto in there. 468 00:21:55,960 --> 00:22:00,399 Speaker 5: It would look more diverse and have more and more drivers. Right. Issues, 469 00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:02,400 Speaker 5: I can't make it work if the fabs go along 470 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 5: with it, oh right, And that's the problem because it's big. 471 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,120 Speaker 5: If you stock or qualk them, it would be massively deluded. 472 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 5: And you start adding even a little bit of cash, 473 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:13,600 Speaker 5: the leverage gets to tow untenable levels. And so now 474 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:15,480 Speaker 5: to get back to the breakup, these says, this is 475 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:18,639 Speaker 5: my biggest issue with it. Intel is clearly prepping to 476 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 5: split the company between products and manufacturing at some point. 477 00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,359 Speaker 5: They've separated out the financials and they've even put it 478 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,400 Speaker 5: in an independent subsidiary. The issues right now, the foundry 479 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 5: cannot stand on its own if if they were to devestigate, 480 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,400 Speaker 5: goes bankrupt immediately, it's losing twelve billion dollars a year 481 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,840 Speaker 5: and it's got one customer, right Intel. So that's not 482 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,119 Speaker 5: viable until they build a third party business, and that 483 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:39,240 Speaker 5: still becomes questionable. 484 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 4: Can they build that or not. 485 00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 5: I don't think they can just sell the factory, say 486 00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 5: to TSMC or somebody like. I don't think TSMC wants 487 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,360 Speaker 5: to run them. Right again, they're losing a bunch of money, 488 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:51,440 Speaker 5: and TSMC's process flow is completely different, I think hypothetically, 489 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:54,520 Speaker 5: and this gets to the regula, you could just you 490 00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,000 Speaker 5: scrap them, right, you sell the tools for whatever there were, 491 00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 5: but maybe that covers your restructuring and you go a 492 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 5: whole to outsource stand So this is what AMD did, 493 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 5: like effectively back from twenty eight to like twenty fourteen. 494 00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:06,480 Speaker 4: That was sort of where they ended up. 495 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:08,440 Speaker 5: My issue with that is, at least right now, I 496 00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:09,879 Speaker 5: don't think that's politically vital. 497 00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, I've just given all the conversations we've been having, 498 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:13,679 Speaker 4: and so that's the thing. 499 00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,679 Speaker 5: I don't know those fabs unless they can build the mountain, 500 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:20,200 Speaker 5: actually build those businesses they're in income. This is one 501 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,320 Speaker 5: could if you were but that it's maybe there's you know, 502 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,159 Speaker 5: maybe there's value to break up. But I think you 503 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,120 Speaker 5: have to destroy the company down locked. I don't think 504 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:28,240 Speaker 5: we're ready to do that right now. 505 00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 6: And to the point about political viability, that raises a 506 00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,240 Speaker 6: really important question of you know, it is the Commerce 507 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 6: Department and Secretary of Gena Raimondo's priority to get these 508 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:39,879 Speaker 6: fabs up and running in the US. The minute that 509 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,960 Speaker 6: we start talking about in acquisition, that gets kicked over 510 00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,720 Speaker 6: to anti trust folks. And we don't know that Lena 511 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,720 Speaker 6: con that's see will have the same priorities as Gino Raimondo. 512 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,440 Speaker 6: It's a really really interesting test. And you know, right 513 00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:54,040 Speaker 6: now there's obviously been a lot of news about Qualcom. 514 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 6: We also saw ARM make an approach for Intel's design 515 00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 6: business and until said no. But ARM wasn't even interested 516 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:04,080 Speaker 6: in the manufacturing operation. And it's hard to see you know, 517 00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,479 Speaker 6: anybody who's been working on the Chips Act interested in 518 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:08,960 Speaker 6: any type of acquisition that wouldn't see Intel move forward 519 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,480 Speaker 6: with its US factories. But who wants to take on 520 00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:15,159 Speaker 6: one hundred billion dollars worth of manufacturing investments on American 521 00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,199 Speaker 6: soil that don't seem likely to turn a profit. 522 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:21,520 Speaker 3: This is the problem. The main thing we want in 523 00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 3: this country is not advanced chips. We want the ability 524 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,879 Speaker 3: for American companies to be able to produce advanced chips, 525 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,560 Speaker 3: and there's no way to just sort of financially engineer 526 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:35,080 Speaker 3: your way out of investments that aren't delivering on that. 527 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,560 Speaker 3: Like we can talk about all kinds of combinations, we 528 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,200 Speaker 3: can talk about all kinds of whatever, but they're right, like. 529 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,160 Speaker 1: This is the core problem that money can't see. 530 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:43,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly right. 531 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:46,879 Speaker 5: What you would need is somebody to go in and 532 00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,480 Speaker 5: capitalize these ascid This is kind of what AMD did 533 00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,119 Speaker 5: back back in two thousand and eight. You know, they 534 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 5: sold their factories to the Middle East, Tabu Dhabi, to 535 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,840 Speaker 5: the bottle of them, but they were bleeding, right, this is. 536 00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 4: Actually what formed global founderies. Say Global Founderies actually. 537 00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,160 Speaker 5: Only profitable day because they gave up on the leading 538 00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:04,040 Speaker 5: edge and AMD actually like ditched them and they went 539 00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 5: whole hogged at TSMC back in the days. But that 540 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:09,400 Speaker 5: was the path they had, like a deep pocketed investor 541 00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:12,200 Speaker 5: who apparently didn't really care about making decisions that were 542 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:13,920 Speaker 5: necessarily economically motivated. 543 00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 4: I mean clearly right now. 544 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,160 Speaker 5: It's like you were just to see something like with Intel, 545 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 5: you need something that like investor levels would be one 546 00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,640 Speaker 5: or two orders of magnitude higher than what we saw 547 00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,720 Speaker 5: back then with AMD and their fabs, you know, ten, 548 00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:26,280 Speaker 5: fIF fifteen, or twenty years ago. 549 00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:28,560 Speaker 4: And I don't know, like where would that come from. 550 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,560 Speaker 5: Like I've had people suggest, oh, the government could do it, 551 00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:32,480 Speaker 5: but I mean, the government's already funding them, like they 552 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:33,280 Speaker 5: don't have any other. 553 00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:34,720 Speaker 4: Like dollars that are allocated. 554 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,840 Speaker 5: And I've had people suggest, oh, Intel's customers could do that, 555 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 5: but if in those customers were interested in supporting, they 556 00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,520 Speaker 5: could put foundry volume there. They don't need to like 557 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 5: buy out the manufacturing and support the manufacturing assets, like 558 00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 5: I don't. 559 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 4: This is what I meant when I talked earlier. 560 00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,439 Speaker 5: I said, I, you know, they're the business as it 561 00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,359 Speaker 5: stands doesn't necessarily support the path along the strategy, but 562 00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:55,919 Speaker 5: they may be too late and maybe too late for 563 00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:56,920 Speaker 5: them to stop what they're doing. 564 00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,360 Speaker 4: This is kind of what I meant, So I kind 565 00:25:59,400 --> 00:25:59,840 Speaker 4: of stuck. 566 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,760 Speaker 1: So I know, we've been focused on the problems at Intel, 567 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,120 Speaker 1: but I joked earlier that we might have to get 568 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:09,560 Speaker 1: the bullwhip bullhorn back out because of what's been happening 569 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:13,520 Speaker 1: in North Carolina how seriously should we take those headlines? 570 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:15,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean so. 571 00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,040 Speaker 5: For those of you that don't know, spruce primee is 572 00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:21,000 Speaker 5: one of the largest global sources something called high purity quartz. 573 00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:24,520 Speaker 5: High puriody quartz is used to make the crucibles that 574 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 5: hold the silicon melt that are used to make silicon 575 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:30,200 Speaker 5: wafers for semiconductor manufacturing. The way you make silicon wafers 576 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,520 Speaker 5: by the ways, you have a big cauldron effectively of 577 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:37,479 Speaker 5: melted silicon. You dope it with all with specific amounts 578 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,800 Speaker 5: of impurities to get the properties you want, and then 579 00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,480 Speaker 5: you touch a little piece of single crystal silicon to 580 00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,760 Speaker 5: this molten silicon and you start to pull it up, 581 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 5: and you rotate the crucible as you're doing this, and 582 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 5: you pull out this effectively a big inget. It's called 583 00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:52,480 Speaker 5: a bull of silicon. Who think can be I don't know, 584 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:54,119 Speaker 5: twelve or fifteen feet high at the end of it. 585 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:55,560 Speaker 1: That sounds so satisfying. 586 00:26:55,600 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 5: Actually, it's called the Sharalski process or the CZ it's 587 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:02,840 Speaker 5: really really cool, and you can control the diameter of 588 00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:05,480 Speaker 5: this bull via the pull speed and the rotational speed 589 00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 5: of this cauldron. And then they slice this thing up 590 00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 5: and they make silicon wafers out of it. So the 591 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 5: high purity court to the ultri purity courts from Spruce 592 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:13,480 Speaker 5: Pine and a few other places used to make the 593 00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,199 Speaker 5: quartz crucibles that holds the milk, and it is one 594 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 5: of the largest sources. And the area just got pounded, 595 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,320 Speaker 5: I mean be inundated by Hurricane Helene. 596 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:26,200 Speaker 3: So the method is named after Polish scientist Jon Scheralski. 597 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:27,680 Speaker 2: God, there really are a lot of. 598 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 3: Steps in semiconductor manufacture. The crucible. 599 00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 5: Yeah, this is just to make the wafers by the 600 00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:35,640 Speaker 5: process been around for over one hundred years. 601 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:39,080 Speaker 4: Like it's a pretty remarkable Anyways. 602 00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:42,200 Speaker 3: Mckennessee lawyer here, we're about to wrap any questions as 603 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,639 Speaker 3: a journalist, anything you need to ask Stacy. 604 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,560 Speaker 6: Oh gosh, I mean the big question is doesn't even fail? 605 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:51,080 Speaker 6: What do they have to do to not fail? And 606 00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,119 Speaker 6: when we think about, you know, large, what does this 607 00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:54,840 Speaker 6: policy need to look like to not justic scene and 608 00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 6: tell about to saying the ecosystem overall? Stacey, if you 609 00:27:57,960 --> 00:27:59,720 Speaker 6: had to design a ship sacked too, what would it 610 00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:00,160 Speaker 6: look like? 611 00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:02,680 Speaker 5: Oh? Yeah, I mean first just done, Intel, Like I'm 612 00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:05,440 Speaker 5: not gonna knock them. I think their biggest mistakes were 613 00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:07,240 Speaker 5: not necessarily the strategy. 614 00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:09,040 Speaker 4: And we can argue with strategy yes or no. 615 00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:12,040 Speaker 5: But their biggest mistake I think was coming in and 616 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:14,159 Speaker 5: I mean when look when Pack got there, he kind 617 00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:15,920 Speaker 5: of sounded more like a cheerleader than the CEO. I 618 00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,040 Speaker 5: mean it was the AMD's in a review mirror, and 619 00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,879 Speaker 5: he had these ludicrous targets that they were hiring to. 620 00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 5: I mean, he should have come in and said, look, 621 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:24,800 Speaker 5: I'm so happy to be back get intell, but like 622 00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:25,760 Speaker 5: you're gonna have to be patient. 623 00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 4: It's going to be a slug. 624 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 1: Wait till twenty thirty. 625 00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:31,600 Speaker 5: I have to fix yeah, And it was always it 626 00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:32,600 Speaker 5: took ten years to break it. 627 00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:34,200 Speaker 4: Why would it take less than ten years to fix that? 628 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:35,919 Speaker 4: It was always going to take the twenty thirty. 629 00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:40,080 Speaker 1: En I'm tempted to put this in my performance review. 630 00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:44,600 Speaker 1: Wait till twenty thirty and see. 631 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 4: That's talked lately. 632 00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,760 Speaker 5: He wished that he took like harder actions on costs 633 00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:48,520 Speaker 5: and everything earlier. 634 00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:50,160 Speaker 4: Clearly they should have done that right. 635 00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:52,280 Speaker 5: Instead, he went on a hiring spreel, you know, like 636 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 5: headcount was up twenty one thousand employees in the seven 637 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:56,080 Speaker 5: quarters after he took the job, and then they had 638 00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:59,040 Speaker 5: to lay off. Then they started hiring again. Now they're 639 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:02,440 Speaker 5: doing a bigger laugh. It's demoralizing. So those are clearly 640 00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:04,840 Speaker 5: mistakes above and beyond. Again, we can talk about the 641 00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:07,520 Speaker 5: strategy or not, but I certainly would have recommended they take. 642 00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:08,960 Speaker 4: A harder line right right when they got there. 643 00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 5: In terms of the Chip to Act itself, I'm not 644 00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:14,520 Speaker 5: going to say it's not successful. So the dollar amounts 645 00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:17,240 Speaker 5: aren't actually that. They're thirty nine billion dollars for manufacturing. 646 00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,720 Speaker 5: Plus you know, the tax got to probably be as 647 00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,720 Speaker 5: big or bigger, you know, over like five years for 648 00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:24,840 Speaker 5: the whole industry. Is actually not that big, but it 649 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 5: is stimulating a lot of other incremental investment. And like 650 00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:29,719 Speaker 5: the majority of the actual dollars that eventually will get 651 00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:31,480 Speaker 5: spent or not coming from the Chips Actor, It's coming 652 00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:33,320 Speaker 5: from the companies themselves, I mean, as it should so 653 00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:38,080 Speaker 5: as a mechanism to stimulate like domestic investment in SEMIS, 654 00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,680 Speaker 5: I think it is a success. Could we use more sure, 655 00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:43,520 Speaker 5: although you have to even talk about its cyclical industry. 656 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:45,120 Speaker 5: You have to think about what's the right time in 657 00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:47,720 Speaker 5: place to spend these dollars and in terms of like 658 00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:49,959 Speaker 5: betting on Intel, what was a national champion. I mean 659 00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:51,720 Speaker 5: that may or may not have been a good idea, 660 00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:54,080 Speaker 5: but again, I don't know what choice they had just 661 00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:57,280 Speaker 5: given the political realities of what they're doing. It's again 662 00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:59,520 Speaker 5: I won't knock them, and it's a good first step. 663 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,240 Speaker 5: I just helped the wear with the political warrelhol is 664 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:04,800 Speaker 5: there to continue again. We've got an administration change coming up, 665 00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:06,880 Speaker 5: and who the heck knows what's going to happen. 666 00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:08,280 Speaker 4: I don't know, but I hope they can continue with this. 667 00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:16,200 Speaker 3: Lots More is produced by Carmen Rodriguez and dash El Bennett, 668 00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:18,360 Speaker 3: with help from Moses Onam and kil Brooks. 669 00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:21,920 Speaker 1: Our sound engineer is Blake Maples. Sage Bauman is the 670 00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:23,360 Speaker 1: head of Bloomberg Podcasts. 671 00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:27,160 Speaker 3: Please rate, review, and subscribe to Odd, Lots and Lots 672 00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:30,080 Speaker 3: More on your favorite podcast platforms. 673 00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,600 Speaker 1: And remember that Bloomberg subscribers can listen to all our 674 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:37,280 Speaker 1: podcasts at free by connecting through Apple Podcasts. Thanks for listening. 675 00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:43,440 Speaker 1: I just realized it's Stacy, Tracy and McKenzie. Oh you're 676 00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 1: the odd one out show. Joey