Speaker 1: The Times record.
Speaker 2: Bring we will sue you.
Speaker 3: To thank Tom's the Gunner.
Speaker 2: Welcome Flaming hang Out.
Speaker 3: Welcome to the Just Baseball Show. It is Thursday, July
Speaker 3: twenty third. That's arm Late and that's Paul Hem the
Speaker 3: Ketis and I am Peter Raffle and today a mock
Speaker 3: trade episode. On yesterday's show, arm Jack and Fink, they
Speaker 3: did a deadline prime or bring it up? Really the
Speaker 3: top fifty potential deadline movie again at this deadline. But
Speaker 3: here Hembo and I we ranked ten stars that we
Speaker 3: think are likely going to get traded, and both of
Speaker 3: us have a mock trade and we're gonna throw it
Speaker 3: over to Arum and he's going to decide who's got
Speaker 3: the best one. And it's all brought to you by
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Speaker 3: Baseball on bet MGM, because again, if your first pick loses,
Speaker 3: you get it all back at bonus bets up to
Speaker 3: fifteen hundred bucks. Hembo, you and I have been texting
Speaker 3: all morning, all yesterday, and really over the past week
Speaker 3: because we cannot be more excited for this episode.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. My wife is currently away on assignment
Speaker 2: for work, so I've got three girls under the age
Speaker 2: of four for like five days. I have spent an
Speaker 2: irresponsible amount of time preparing for this, considering the responsibilities
Speaker 2: that I have at home. But the only thing that
Speaker 2: matters is that we win here. I mean, I'm not
Speaker 2: looking to compete. I'm not going to win. An arbiter
Speaker 2: arm over there who's looking like just so to my
Speaker 2: ore in the mid nineties, is gonna take that job.
Speaker 2: Really seriously, I can assure.
Speaker 4: You, I'm just here for equitable trades. That's all I
Speaker 4: care about, is just equitable trades.
Speaker 3: As as the fanos on top of the throne, the arbiter,
Speaker 3: explain how you're going to judge our trades, because you're
Speaker 3: not just choosing the prospect package that has better prospects.
Speaker 3: Because if Heimbo and I were to make those trades,
Speaker 3: we would just overpay for everything so we could win
Speaker 3: this quote unquote episode. How are you going to be
Speaker 3: judging our mock trades?
Speaker 4: I think I'm just gonna pick the trades where I
Speaker 4: know both fan bases are going to be mad. But
Speaker 4: now I think it's one where that if I was
Speaker 4: in the GM seat of either side, I would painfully
Speaker 4: say send it in and like grip.
Speaker 1: My teeth and do it right.
Speaker 4: And I think it's it really comes down to, like
Speaker 4: what should the asking price? What's a fair asking price
Speaker 4: for this player on the big league side? And was
Speaker 4: that asking price met do I think? And which was
Speaker 4: closest to that? And you know, maybe some of that
Speaker 4: will be skewed where I may value you know, a
Speaker 4: prospect a little bit more, and that's the fun part
Speaker 4: of it. The other side is where I want to
Speaker 4: make sure we get like even, and I'll probably throw
Speaker 4: in some calibration questions is our value of these big leaguers?
Speaker 4: But I think that's important too, like how much are
Speaker 4: we weighing control with certain guys? How much are weighing
Speaker 4: which I thought was great in the last episode, how
Speaker 4: much these guys have to get paid, like treks Google's
Speaker 4: salary for the rest of the year is not something
Speaker 4: that you can just gloss over. Because he's really good
Speaker 4: at pitching. It matters.
Speaker 1: So it's all things that definitely want to bake into
Speaker 1: the equation.
Speaker 3: And let's say that both of our packages are tied.
Speaker 3: Will you then will the type breaker be your favorite fit? Like,
Speaker 3: for example, if you like the package with said team
Speaker 3: just a little bit more, even if the prospect returns
Speaker 3: are equal.
Speaker 1: I'll go fit and likelihood.
Speaker 4: If you're giving me like a Brewers deal that will
Speaker 4: never happen, I might. I might just end up not
Speaker 4: making the cut if it's like if it's a Brewers
Speaker 4: deal versus a Preller deal, going to lean towards the
Speaker 4: pre Er deal.
Speaker 3: And hembo, You and I discussed this too offline. We said,
Speaker 3: you know, there's a lot of trade deadline podcast episodes.
Speaker 3: A lot of people cover the trade deadline, and a
Speaker 3: lot of people do it really well, but you don't
Speaker 3: see a lot of all, right, you think that this
Speaker 3: guy's going to get traded, Who is going to get
Speaker 3: traded and to who, and really narrowing it down to
Speaker 3: what we think is going to be a likely package
Speaker 3: for these ten guys at the deadline. And again, these
Speaker 3: ten players, not only on Jeff Passon's article, are they
Speaker 3: forty percent or higher likelihood to get trade, but we
Speaker 3: think it's probably closer to sixty percent. And every player
Speaker 3: here is good. So we're not just thrown around random names.
Speaker 3: These are ten stars we really think are going to
Speaker 3: get traded.
Speaker 2: No, I'm, for all intentsive purposes, pretending to be the
Speaker 2: GM of all thirty teams across baseball over the next hour,
Speaker 2: and I'm confident that I'm going to win this whatever
Speaker 2: it is, quote card contest, whatever we're going to call it, let's.
Speaker 3: Call it a cool card contest. All right, let's break
Speaker 3: straight into it, and we're going to start at the
Speaker 3: very top. Terrek Scooble mock trades for Trek Scooble, Hembo.
Speaker 3: You are our esteemed guest, our friend, So of course
Speaker 3: the first mock trade for Terrek Scooble goes to you.
Speaker 2: I'm sending Tara Scooble to the Tampa Bay Rays. That
Speaker 2: might surprise a lot of people within the side of
Speaker 2: my voice. But if not. Now, when Steo Epstein once
Speaker 2: famously said, we know the system has become absolutely stacked down, there.
Speaker 2: You know that the American League is clearer right now
Speaker 2: the path to winning it than it's been for many,
Speaker 2: many years. And this is a club that's only won
Speaker 2: it twice in its history. It has a clear path
Speaker 2: they're doing so right now. They've loaded up in the draft,
Speaker 2: most recently drafting Grady Emerson. They made out like a
Speaker 2: bandit last year when they traded Shane Bosse. My package
Speaker 2: as as follows, it's a loaded package. They're going to
Speaker 2: send Cooper Fleming, and they're going to send Brody Hopkins
Speaker 2: to Detroit in exchange for Tarrett schouble In. What was
Speaker 2: You know, probably you could consider the least Rays like
Speaker 2: move that you could ever make. But like I said,
Speaker 2: I think time is of the essence, and given the
Speaker 2: fact that they're operating from a position of strength, that's
Speaker 2: what I'm sending into our arbiter.
Speaker 3: So I like it hard not to like the Rays
Speaker 3: because I have a couple players on this list headed
Speaker 3: to the Rays. I think we're all aligned that the
Speaker 3: Rays are going to be one of the most active
Speaker 3: teams at this deadline. They got money to spend, they
Speaker 3: got a new owner, They're atop the American League East.
Speaker 3: I like what you said, Heimbo if not now went,
Speaker 3: and they're in a great position to pounce on a
Speaker 3: guy like Tarek Scooble. But another team that is in
Speaker 3: maybe a better spot to go get Trek Scouble is
Speaker 3: the LA Dodgers. And it's obvious, but sometimes the obvious
Speaker 3: answer is the right one. And my package is Headler
Speaker 3: by Zayr Hope, one of the four elite outfield prospects
Speaker 3: on the LA Dodgers that they would not feel if
Speaker 3: he were to go. Obviously incredible prospect, But when you
Speaker 3: look at the current Dodger situation, I think they're okay
Speaker 3: if they only have three elite outfielders and then you
Speaker 3: give up Emma Sheen, who's an MLB ready arm right
Speaker 3: now can slot directly into the Tiger's rotation has always
Speaker 3: had really good stuff bounced in between the bullpen and
Speaker 3: the rotation for the Dodgers, and that's mostly because the
Speaker 3: Dodgers are just so freaking good. And I understand you saying, well,
Speaker 3: did the Dodgers really need to do this? Look at
Speaker 3: how good their team is right now. The Dodgers' rotation
Speaker 3: with Tyler Glass now on the shelf and Blake Snell
Speaker 3: on the shelf. It's not as daunting of a rotation
Speaker 3: as we might be used to, or if you haven't
Speaker 3: been watching Dodger baseball recently, you might not have realized that.
Speaker 3: It's kind of Yoshinoba Yamamoto, Justin Robleski, Emmett Shean, Roki Sasaki,
Speaker 3: and Eric Lauer. So I'm not saying they need a pitcher.
Speaker 3: Dave Roberts even came out and said, we don't really
Speaker 3: need anything. We might be sellers over buyers, and I
Speaker 3: agree with him. However, in this deal, even though it's
Speaker 3: an overpay, they don't feel it. And if the Dodgers
Speaker 3: truly want a three P you get Trek Skouoble good Night,
Speaker 3: and all it costs is Emmett Shean and one of
Speaker 3: your four elite outfielders. I think this might even be
Speaker 3: a stronger package than what the Rays could give him.
Speaker 3: But Arum, you're the arbiter.
Speaker 4: You tell me so, I think both of these are
Speaker 4: like fair packages here and in previous years I'd say, well,
Speaker 4: obviously the Dodgers are more likely to do this like
Speaker 4: no way the Rays do it. But for all the
Speaker 4: things that Hemba laid out, I think it's important to
Speaker 4: note that also the financial aspect is not as much
Speaker 4: of a factor for the Rays, I think with ownership
Speaker 4: and the message that they want to send generally speaking
Speaker 4: as well. And I think when you're just looking at
Speaker 4: what we've got as my video.
Speaker 1: Just goes out, I have no idea what happened there.
Speaker 4: But when we think about it from that lens, I
Speaker 4: just I think it's a tough gauge because the funniest
Speaker 4: part is are I can't decide if the Dodgers are
Speaker 4: playing koy right now and just deciding that they don't
Speaker 4: want to set the market, or if it's one of
Speaker 4: those situations where they actually just don't want to make
Speaker 4: that kind of move like they because anytime you make
Speaker 4: this trade, it's going to be a model defying move,
Speaker 4: right Like it's always going to say not worth it,
Speaker 4: not worth it, not worth it. And I wonder if
Speaker 4: the Dodgers this is the one time with where they're
Speaker 4: at position like in terms of where they're at, that
Speaker 4: they don't want to defy the model. At the same time,
Speaker 4: we haven't seen the Rays really do this do this in.
Speaker 1: A little bit now. And I go back and forth, but.
Speaker 4: I think this is a tiebreaker of likelihood, and with
Speaker 4: the way and the messaging that we're hearing from the Dodgers,
Speaker 4: unless it's all like a trick, like they don't want
Speaker 4: to set the market, they're just saying this, I think
Speaker 4: the Rays are more likely to do it. And if
Speaker 4: the Rays make this trade, Brody Hopkins is the most
Speaker 4: frustrating pitching prospect for me in baseball right now. He's
Speaker 4: either six perfect with ten k's or he walks six.
Speaker 4: But the upside there is so amens. He's already in
Speaker 4: tripa A. Fleming is a hit first, left handed hitting infielder,
Speaker 4: which I think is the number one addiction of this
Speaker 4: Tiger's front office in Scott Harris. So I think I
Speaker 4: know that's why I had both threw him in there.
Speaker 4: Shean is gonna hit ARB next year, but I think
Speaker 4: they would love to throw him in there and have
Speaker 4: him in the rotation the Tigers. But they're also in
Speaker 4: a spot now where it's like you're trying to find
Speaker 4: a spot for a couple guys that are really throwing
Speaker 4: the ball.
Speaker 1: Well, I go Zire Hope doesn't.
Speaker 4: Totally fit what they typically like, but he has been
Speaker 4: destroying the ball and I think they need an outfielder
Speaker 4: or left in a hitting outfielder in the fold there
Speaker 4: would help a little bit more.
Speaker 1: This is probably the toughest one.
Speaker 3: But I'm going to answer before you answer, Hambo. I
Speaker 3: think we did a good job here, because you can't decide.
Speaker 3: It's like pick it between, you know, a really good
Speaker 3: New York strip and a really good Ribbi. It's what
Speaker 3: are you more in the mood for? In the mood
Speaker 3: for a little bit more fat on your steak or
Speaker 3: you want to go a little bit healthier, a little
Speaker 3: bit leaner ar them.
Speaker 4: I'm going to go with the one I actually think
Speaker 4: is more likely, which is crazy, and it's the Rays.
Speaker 4: I think I'm going to go with the Rays on
Speaker 4: this one, but it's also because I want to see
Speaker 4: the race makes splash. But I think the Dodgers messaging
Speaker 4: is just unless it's all bullshit, I just don't see
Speaker 4: him doing this.
Speaker 3: Question for you real quick. In the two players from
Speaker 3: the Rays and the Dodgers, what package do you think
Speaker 3: is better? Just in a vacuum.
Speaker 1: In a vacuum, it's it's the Dodgers package.
Speaker 3: Okay, so you think you think the Dodgers if the
Speaker 3: Tiger said, we want zay R Hope and Emma Shean
Speaker 3: instead of what the Rays and the Dodgers wouldn't feel that.
Speaker 3: You still think.
Speaker 4: It's more I don't think they're gonna you know, I
Speaker 4: always I kind of reject the like wouldn't feel that
Speaker 4: thing the more I've thought about it, because it's like,
Speaker 4: of course you feel it.
Speaker 1: It's a really good player.
Speaker 4: So if you're giving up a really good two really
Speaker 4: good players for a rental, no matter how many you have,
Speaker 4: you could have a hundred of them. You could have
Speaker 4: moved them for something else. So I think the Dodgers
Speaker 4: package bad better. But I also think Scott Harris may
Speaker 4: value Fleming just as close as Hope, who knows and
Speaker 4: and the upside of Hopkins as a guy that hasn't
Speaker 4: even started as big League clock yet could be more appealing.
Speaker 4: Or Harris may just want to plug in a guy
Speaker 4: into the rotation next year, but he'll be an RB already,
Speaker 4: So that's one of the only other drawbacks too.
Speaker 3: Hambo takes a one to zero lead you he go there.
Speaker 2: The whole point was the watch rum just twist himself
Speaker 2: and not for the last five minutes and still not
Speaker 2: feel confident in his answer. So we did our job
Speaker 2: there for sure. So as far as off, we both
Speaker 2: won the Terror Schooble trade.
Speaker 3: Should we take a draw? Now you won, arm picked you,
Speaker 3: you won. It's one zero hembo that we move over
Speaker 3: to Michael Waka. Not quite Trek Scooble, but a damn
Speaker 3: good pitcher. And he's pitched to a mid to low
Speaker 3: threes era and it feels like for the last decade,
Speaker 3: and he comes with one and a half years of
Speaker 3: control and a club option in twenty twenty eight. So
Speaker 3: I don't think necessarily that he's going to have like
Speaker 3: it's going to be cheap to go get a Michael Waka.
Speaker 3: I know the underlying metrics aren't great, but he has
Speaker 3: some postseason success under his belt. Like, this is a
Speaker 3: really good sound pitcher is on the older end, but
Speaker 3: any team would be I think jumping for joy to
Speaker 3: bring Michael Waka in hemball. Throw it over to you again.
Speaker 3: You're going first, my friend, the package mock trades for
Speaker 3: Michael Waka.
Speaker 2: I'm saying Michael Waka to the Chicago Cubs because Michael
Speaker 2: Waka represents every single thing that they need in their rotation.
Speaker 2: Namely consistency, namely durability. I don't view him as a
Speaker 2: frontline starter. I view him more as a mid rotation
Speaker 2: starter based upon those two notions, his consistency and his durability.
Speaker 2: He's among the very best mid rotation starters in all
Speaker 2: of ball and there's nothing that the Cubs need right
Speaker 2: now more than average, if not slightly above average innings eating.
Speaker 2: That's exactly what he provides. I don't think that the
Speaker 2: market is going to be that hot for him. Candidly,
Speaker 2: I don't think the industry views him as being much
Speaker 2: more than what I just described. But look, desperate times
Speaker 2: in Chicago call for desperate measures, and he's someone that
Speaker 2: you could absolutely pencil in the start Game three of
Speaker 2: a postseason series. The package is this, I'm sending two prospects.
Speaker 2: I'm sending King Kepley, a twenty two year old center fielder,
Speaker 2: and I'm sending Caleb Wing, a nineteen year old right
Speaker 2: handed pitcher. It's going to be a two for one
Speaker 2: Chicago to Kansas City as the Royals do whatever it
Speaker 2: is tearing down that they do here before the deadline,
Speaker 2: which of course is absolutely necessary considering the way that
Speaker 2: their season has been tanked.
Speaker 3: When you look at this package, I'm gonna value Michael
Speaker 3: Waka a little bit higher than you are. And that'll
Speaker 3: that's why it's good that Arms here as kind of
Speaker 3: that balancing act. But again, Michael Waka just continues to shove, Like,
Speaker 3: how many more seasons of a mid three cra eating
Speaker 3: one hundred and seventy two hundred and eighty innings do
Speaker 3: we have to see before we call him at least
Speaker 3: a really solid number three in a playoff rotation. And
Speaker 3: I think for a really solid three in a playoff rotation,
Speaker 3: you're gonna have to give up a little bit more.
Speaker 3: And I would also say the Braves might need him
Speaker 3: even more than the Cubs do. I was shocked to
Speaker 3: see this that innings from starters on both the Cubs
Speaker 3: and the Braves. Brave starters have thrown less innings than
Speaker 3: Cubs starters have this year. The Braves are in desperate
Speaker 3: need of a guy to solidify this rotation. Because you
Speaker 3: have Chris Sale at the top, that's awesome. We're still
Speaker 3: waiting on Spencer Schwellenbach. Strider is hurt and I don't
Speaker 3: really know what the update is on him. And after
Speaker 3: that it's Waldrop, Ranaldo Lopez, Martin Perez. I think the
Speaker 3: Braves desperately need a guy who can routinely give them
Speaker 3: six innings of two to three run ball, and I
Speaker 3: think it's going to cost number one Owen Murphy, who's
Speaker 3: already been up to the Big league's twenty year old
Speaker 3: first round pick in twenty twenty two. He's a really
Speaker 3: solid prospect. And then Alex low Diese, twenty two year
Speaker 3: old in a ball having a good season. He was
Speaker 3: his second round pick in twenty twenty five. So that's
Speaker 3: my offer. I think it's steeper than Hembo's offer, but
Speaker 3: I think Michael Waka deserves it, so arm you're the arbiter,
Speaker 3: does he deserve it?
Speaker 1: Couple of Michael Waka things. I think his contract's fascinating.
Speaker 4: This is the most expensive year that you'll have of
Speaker 4: three years of control, or I guess two more after this,
Speaker 4: so two and a quarter, and then it's fourteen mil
Speaker 4: next year, which I mean you're getting him for eight
Speaker 4: million less than the qoh no problem, and then fourteen
Speaker 4: million the year after that. He does hit a lot
Speaker 4: of incentives that'll probably end up driving him closer to
Speaker 4: fifteen sixteen million because they're all innings based incentives, but
Speaker 4: great thing, sign up for it. I have one problem
Speaker 4: with him post package, and this might be me over valuing,
Speaker 4: kind of like the state of the Org. But the
Speaker 4: Cubs have eight thousand hitting prospects and they have two
Speaker 4: I think really.
Speaker 1: Relevant pitching prospects at this point.
Speaker 4: One is Jackson Wiggins, who's been banged up most of
Speaker 4: the year, and the other is Caleb Wing. And Wing
Speaker 4: is striking out what thirteen fourteen per nine. He's still
Speaker 4: at the lower levels, a lot of time to figure
Speaker 4: things out. But I do wonder like you trade I mean,
Speaker 4: obviously you have the guy you just drafted in Kaid
Speaker 4: Townsend as well, and that helps. But entering the draft,
Speaker 4: that's where you stood. Do you want to trade a
Speaker 4: little bit of that pitching depth with for a vet arm.
Speaker 4: He is controllable and so maybe that would be worth
Speaker 4: it for them. I don't know. I love King Kane Kepley,
Speaker 4: and I think he would fit. I could glove out
Speaker 4: there and his power would play out out there. And
Speaker 4: I think he's one of the most underrated prospects in baseball.
Speaker 4: Great defender. I think he's already got forty five bags
Speaker 4: this year in eighty three games, he's only been caught
Speaker 4: four times. Sneaky pop, really fun player. I'm trying to
Speaker 4: think too of what the Royals would want here, and
Speaker 4: I don't see this as a team that I think
Speaker 4: with where they're at, I don't know if they want
Speaker 4: guys that are further off. I do wonder if they
Speaker 4: want guys that can kind of help them a little
Speaker 4: bit more quickly, because I imagine maybe they feel like
Speaker 4: they're not as far off as the record may suggest.
Speaker 4: Where do you stand on that, Henm, But what do
Speaker 4: you think the Royals feel right now about where they're at?
Speaker 4: Maybe going into twenty seven?
Speaker 2: Somewhat delusionally, I think the Royals are teetering on an
Speaker 2: Angels like sort of worldview of themselves, which I think
Speaker 2: is very dangerous and very damaging. I personally see a
Speaker 2: system that is devoid of talent, not just at the
Speaker 2: lower levels, not just at the upper levels, but in
Speaker 2: the big leagues two like this is in my judgment,
Speaker 2: if you were to just stack surplus across organizations, they're
Speaker 2: going to be in the bottom third for sure, if
Speaker 2: not even worse than that. I don't see much talent here.
Speaker 2: I think this team is much closer to a full on,
Speaker 2: full fledged rebuilder, at least reset than most people realize. Yes,
Speaker 2: we remember fondly than making the playoffs a couple of
Speaker 2: years ago. Yes, we all love Bobby Wood Junior and
Speaker 2: what we've seen from CAGs, what we've seen from Carter Jensen.
Speaker 2: But it's a roster that doesn't make much sense now
Speaker 2: because they're young bats. They're veteran arms that are somewhat
Speaker 2: expensive that aren't that wiffy. Many of those pitchers are
Speaker 2: out performing their peripherals because the ballpark is so friendly.
Speaker 2: I'm just not right now a big fan of where
Speaker 2: this organization is, and so I think what they should
Speaker 2: be doing is operating under the assumption that we're going
Speaker 2: to build out our roster for the twenty twenty eight
Speaker 2: and twenty twenty nine season, not try and microwave any success.
Speaker 2: But that's just my two cents.
Speaker 1: I agree with you wholeheartedly. But do you think that
Speaker 1: it will do.
Speaker 2: I think that's much less likely than what I just said,
Speaker 2: because I think they have a few of themselves much
Speaker 2: closer to the team that hung the Yankees in the playoffs.
Speaker 2: A couple of seasons ago, which to me is totally
Speaker 2: a distant memory.
Speaker 4: Other funny thing, I think I side with Peter a
Speaker 4: little bit about Waka being a little bit more valuable,
Speaker 4: But EMBO's package was actually so like savvy, like upside
Speaker 4: prospect guy rankings haven't caught up yet that I actually
Speaker 4: think the packages were pretty much the same, like they're
Speaker 4: pretty equitable. However, I think the Royals delusion makes this
Speaker 4: a more likely Peter package here, where they're gonna say,
Speaker 4: let's plug Owen Murphy, which I hate the fit by
Speaker 4: the way, Owen Murphy in a verty fastball in that ballpark.
Speaker 1: I think they're going to overlook that.
Speaker 4: They're going to say, we've got a right hander that
Speaker 4: we can plug right into our rotation immediately, and he's
Speaker 4: going to help us next year as well. And we
Speaker 4: get an infield bat that we can maybe develop a
Speaker 4: little bit more as well, so we bolster the system
Speaker 4: and we get a guy that can help us this
Speaker 4: year with six years of control and next year, I
Speaker 4: should say, with six years of control.
Speaker 1: I think they look at your lower.
Speaker 4: Level prospects, Embo and say we're too close to competing
Speaker 4: for that.
Speaker 3: Timbo I won this one but at what cost? Because
Speaker 3: what Aram just said is like Peter's trade is dumber
Speaker 3: exactly with what the Boils are going to do. Like
Speaker 3: you you out intelligence to me, And I'm like, I
Speaker 3: use that because that's not even a word. You outdid me.
Speaker 2: I mean, you saying you out intelligence to me is
Speaker 2: just perfect for so many reasons there. I think arms right,
Speaker 2: I think generally speaking, I think generally speaking, they view
Speaker 2: themselves much closer to the top of the mountain, for
Speaker 2: lack of a better term, than they actually are. And
Speaker 2: I think some of the scuttle that you've heard clean
Speaker 2: out of the reporting to suggest like they'd only move
Speaker 2: Waka or Lugo if for a king's ransom demonstrates the
Speaker 2: fact that they feel that way that they could be
Speaker 2: back into things next year. Guys, the American League is
Speaker 2: quite literally as weak as it's been in thirty years.
Speaker 2: If you're not going to be competitive in twenty twenty
Speaker 2: six up until a couple of weeks ago with Bobby
Speaker 2: Whit playing at an MVP level, Let's be honest, guys,
Speaker 2: you're really not that close. And let's not pretend here
Speaker 2: that this is the Milwaukee Brewer system that's brimming with
Speaker 2: young talent ready to explode next year. This is a
Speaker 2: two or three years away situation in Kansas City.
Speaker 4: I hate to inform you, yep, I think you're right,
Speaker 4: but I think Peters is the realistic swap here. And
Speaker 4: he plugs right in for Randy Dobnack potentially, So you
Speaker 4: know that's a team that's close to competing.
Speaker 3: This is actually one of my worst wins of all time.
Speaker 3: I literally got a win because of number all Right,
Speaker 3: let's go over to Freddy Peralta. Mock trades for Freddie Peralta.
Speaker 3: This one was tough hembo because again he was traded
Speaker 3: for Brandon Sprote and Jet Williams from the Brewers of
Speaker 3: the Mets this offseason, the Mets saying getting close to that.
Speaker 3: So this is really a gauge on how do you
Speaker 3: value Freddie Peralta. So mock trade number one goes to you.
Speaker 2: This is really a gauge of can you get more
Speaker 2: for Freddy Peralta?
Speaker 3: Right now?
Speaker 2: Then you're gonna get for a fourth round pick, which
Speaker 2: is approximately what the Mets would receive in return, because there,
Speaker 2: of course a taxpayer if they were to give him
Speaker 2: the QO and he were to walk arm correct me
Speaker 2: if I'm wrong, but that's not gonna be all that
Speaker 2: palatable of a player either, which is why I think
Speaker 2: that they are likely to move him, because you can
Speaker 2: probably do at least a little better than that, given
Speaker 2: the number of buyers on the market. Yeah, I'm sending
Speaker 2: him in his three million dollar contract to Arizona for
Speaker 2: the rest of the season. I mean, we know he's
Speaker 2: not pitching well right now. It's a true talent era
Speaker 2: somewhere between four and a half and five. Maybe they
Speaker 2: can squeeze more life out of him. Maybe they can't,
Speaker 2: but they desperately need the innings. I'm gonna send over
Speaker 2: Yenceel Luis, a twenty one year old shortstop boy I
Speaker 2: know very little about, but I watch a little bit
Speaker 2: of video and know that he's blocked by Tommy Troy
Speaker 2: and Casey Cunningham and JD.
Speaker 1: Dix.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure there's an obvious place for him to
Speaker 2: play in that organization. Maybe the can Mets can make
Speaker 2: something of him, and maybe Freddy Perolta can catch lightning
Speaker 2: in a bottle and give the Arizona Diamondbacks a dozen
Speaker 2: good starts and try and push their way to the wild.
Speaker 3: Card, another player that I think Hambo you and I
Speaker 3: are valuing a little bit differently. Arm of the trade
Speaker 3: from the Brewers. How many cents on the dollar is this?
Speaker 2: Oh?
Speaker 1: How much is this? Ew?
Speaker 4: I'm trying to account for Tobias Myers as well, but
Speaker 4: this is like thirty twenty twenty cents on the dollar,
Speaker 4: fifteen cents on the dollar.
Speaker 3: I agree. I like Freddy Perlta has not pitched well.
Speaker 3: Like everything that Hembo said I get, I understand, but
Speaker 3: at the end of the day, it's Freddy Peralta, Like
Speaker 3: you got to have some hope that he can bounce
Speaker 3: back in some meaningful way and maybe pitch to a
Speaker 3: four ERA down the stretch, and maybe he could give
Speaker 3: you a good postseason start. Like maybe I'm fishing, But
Speaker 3: it's just hard for me to give up on a
Speaker 3: guy like Freddy Peralta. It really is. It's not like
Speaker 3: my trade is huge either. I understand that he's a rental,
Speaker 3: but I want to send him over to the Chicago
Speaker 3: Cups an arm. You already said that they have a
Speaker 3: glut of offensive prospects and long and James Treanto's these
Speaker 3: are two guys we've kind of floated in deals in
Speaker 3: mock trades for the Cubs for a while now, just
Speaker 3: because they're both blocked. Jonathan Long is twenty four year
Speaker 3: old who has put up great offensive numbers at every stop.
Speaker 3: It's a first baseman completely blocked by Michael Bush. James
Speaker 3: Treanto's if he wasn't blocked by Nico Horner before, he's
Speaker 3: certainly blocked by Alex Bragman. Now, I just don't know
Speaker 3: where these guys are gonna play. And Trianto seems like
Speaker 3: a fine offensive piece. I feel like he's more of
Speaker 3: a bench bat. But at least you have two guys
Speaker 3: twenty four years old, solid offensive prospects who could potentially
Speaker 3: help the Mets. Now, I feel.
Speaker 1: Like this is.
Speaker 3: Sixty cents on the dollar fifty cents on the dollar,
Speaker 3: and that's where I think I'm valuing Freddy Perlta right now.
Speaker 3: But the question goes over to you areum, how do
Speaker 3: you value Freddy pearlta.
Speaker 1: So it's interesting.
Speaker 4: I think this is one of those where like in
Speaker 4: a vacuum, probably slight overpay and eye land somewhere in
Speaker 4: the middle. Think a little bit more than Hembo, a
Speaker 4: little bit less than where you're at Pete. But this
Speaker 4: is a Cubs team that, like they just brought up
Speaker 4: Treanto's coincidentally, they called him up today. I don't think
Speaker 4: it's to go play, you know, prominent big league role
Speaker 4: is just gonna plug in because he's already on the forty.
Speaker 1: He's already on the forty, though, is the point.
Speaker 4: And I believe Jonathan Long has to be added to
Speaker 4: the forty after this year. Weird wrinkle though, because we
Speaker 4: might have the Rule five draft canceled. That was what
Speaker 4: we had last time. But I don't know if a
Speaker 4: team's going to make a decision based on that, like, oh, well,
Speaker 4: we don't have to protect him. I think you're still
Speaker 4: gonna be worried and saying we might have to protect
Speaker 4: this guy. And it's something that you consider because the
Speaker 4: Cubs are already pretty stockpiled with prospects on their forty
Speaker 4: man as is, so I think they'd probably like to
Speaker 4: clear a couple of spots, whether it's gonna be the
Speaker 4: future forty man or or this year. And I think Treanto's,
Speaker 4: to your point, is his blocked as can be if
Speaker 4: they're not gonna move Matt Shaw, especially like very very
Speaker 4: very blocked there. I almost think with Hembo's package, like
Speaker 4: if the Mets really like then maybe it's different. But
Speaker 4: the Mets version of the QO, because it would be
Speaker 4: like a fourth round pick, is as you like, it's
Speaker 4: pretty worthless at the same time, so it is still.
Speaker 1: Better than the QO.
Speaker 4: But I think somebody that is going to be desperate
Speaker 4: and offer up a little bit more than that and
Speaker 4: beat that package. And I think a Cubs team that
Speaker 4: can trade a forty man prospect that's been blocked and
Speaker 4: another guy that has no path that swing it well,
Speaker 4: and you think about the fit for the Mets, you
Speaker 4: go trade Mark Vantos and you bring in Jonathan Long
Speaker 4: and Long can go play some first base, and they're
Speaker 4: kind of looking for their guy at first base anyways,
Speaker 4: and at worst, you know he's a short platoon guy.
Speaker 4: Forty plugs right in next year, and Treonto's plugs right
Speaker 4: in next year as well, So it's kind of this
Speaker 4: now and later move.
Speaker 1: I side with with Peter here.
Speaker 4: I think I think Peralta, even despite the struggles, is
Speaker 4: more valuable than a guy that had probably put it
Speaker 4: like ten the ten range in an average diamondback system.
Speaker 2: Have both thoughts on this, and that's a lot to
Speaker 2: give up for five era, Freddy, that's a lot. It
Speaker 2: is a lot for him. He's gonna get his tits
Speaker 2: lit at regularly field that heginues to pitch like this, guys.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's gonna be a lot like like Shoda
Speaker 2: in some of those starts where he's trying to hump
Speaker 2: it at the top of the zone and he's not
Speaker 2: beating you to the spot and that ninety three is
Speaker 2: winding up into the basket. So I won't be surprised
Speaker 2: if some team overpays. But for that package, I think
Speaker 2: the Cubs can likely or find a better starting pitcher
Speaker 2: down the stretch run than Freddy Peralta, who's just to
Speaker 2: me not remotely reliable in in a playoff context.
Speaker 1: At the moment, the thing I think, oh real quick,
Speaker 1: just the.
Speaker 3: Wind blows in more wriggly than I think people give
Speaker 3: it credit towards. It seems like when there is wind,
Speaker 3: sixty five to seventy percent of the time the wind
Speaker 3: is blowing in. That's why Showed is having a pretty
Speaker 3: damn good season. Yeah, but he does have those years
Speaker 3: where or those arts where he gives up nine homers.
Speaker 3: But Freddy is a guy who maybe a trade to
Speaker 3: the Cubs could invigorate him a little bit more when
Speaker 3: he's going up against the Brewers in the playoffs. He
Speaker 3: also has really good numbers throughout his career at Wrigley,
Speaker 3: so that's another good sign he's comfortable in this division.
Speaker 3: Like if there was a bounce back spot, I do,
Speaker 3: and the Cubs are really good at developing pitching. I
Speaker 3: think that this could be really good. It's maybe a stretch.
Speaker 3: I think they're good at developing pitching. I think this
Speaker 3: could be a good landing spot if Freddy were to
Speaker 3: bounce back pitch a little bit.
Speaker 4: I also just like I don't think trans has had
Speaker 4: a much better year this year. I don't think he's
Speaker 4: very valuable at the end of the day, and Long
Speaker 4: is the first baseman that has to hit. So I
Speaker 4: think these guys, like for other teams that are in
Speaker 4: more rebuild rebuild mode, I'd rather have the lower level
Speaker 4: prospect that has higher upside. But I think with where
Speaker 4: the Mets are at, they may rather have these upper
Speaker 4: miners guys that they can plug in sooner rather than later.
Speaker 2: You think, Arizona, do you think Arizona is a decent
Speaker 2: enough match if I if.
Speaker 4: I, I I love and that was the thing is
Speaker 4: I think if the package was a little bit better,
Speaker 4: even though I know it's like I I trying to
Speaker 4: and I could be wrong here, this could be this
Speaker 4: could be faults on the arbiter. One of the hardest,
Speaker 4: I would say, one of the most difficult players assess
Speaker 4: the trade value of going into this deadline as if
Speaker 4: he has one or two good starts. I think it's
Speaker 4: enough to tease a team to say there he is
Speaker 4: right yea, and in compare it to like another rental
Speaker 4: reliever with similar a rental starter with with similar numbers,
Speaker 4: like Brady Singer has similar numbers right now, I don't
Speaker 4: even think it's close, so you'd rather have down the stretch.
Speaker 4: But it's also an indictment on him that I'm mentioning
Speaker 4: that Brady Singer has similar numbers.
Speaker 1: So how do you value this guy? I think it's
Speaker 1: really hard.
Speaker 4: I love the Diamondbacks fit though, because I think I
Speaker 4: think they don't want to give up any anything crazy,
Speaker 4: and I don't think there's gonna be a controllable starter
Speaker 4: that will work with them in terms of a trade
Speaker 4: package unless something really unique comes comes up, and I
Speaker 4: think they still will want to do something enough to
Speaker 4: where they can add a starter that could hopefully turn
Speaker 4: it around and take that shot. Like Hazan's not risk
Speaker 4: averse at all. So I do love the fit. But
Speaker 4: if it was like JD. Dix, like someone like Sean
Speaker 4: Don who was said in the comments, I decided with you.
Speaker 3: So I'm taking a two one lead. We got to
Speaker 3: move through these mock trades a little bit quicker. We're
Speaker 3: already thirty minutes in and we only got Hembo for
Speaker 3: an hour. We got seven deals left, so we're gonna
Speaker 3: take our first break here from Hampton Farms, and then
Speaker 3: we got seven more mock trades on Deck podcast. Pe
Speaker 3: Can we hear from Peanuts?
Speaker 1: Some peanuts show up for batting practice. Hampton Farms.
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Speaker 3: Next man up Lukewaver mock trades one and a half
Speaker 3: years of control for Weaver. I think, outside of Mason Miller,
Speaker 3: who we are going to do a mock trade for later,
Speaker 3: is the best reliever available. And he's not a rental right,
Speaker 3: and he's it's a pretty good contract too. I think
Speaker 3: he's going to be pretty damn valuable. Hembo, you're mock
Speaker 3: trade for Luke Weaver. Yeah, I don't see it quite
Speaker 3: that way.
Speaker 2: I'm a little bit lower on a lot of these guys,
Speaker 2: it seems than you are, mostly because it's seventeen million
Speaker 2: dollars across the next two years, which, given how well
Speaker 2: he pitches, of course, and what you expect from him
Speaker 2: down the stretch and next year, is more than a
Speaker 2: good value, you might say, But there just aren't that
Speaker 2: many teams that I think that would be willing and
Speaker 2: eager to take on that entire contract, just based upon
Speaker 2: what we know about reliever volatility in some of his
Speaker 2: own individual volatility. All that being said, I'm sending him
Speaker 2: back to the Yankees, who obviously have a comfort and
Speaker 2: a familiarity with them, a team that I think does
Speaker 2: really need an eighth inning guy that they can really
Speaker 2: rely upon before handing the baseball to David Bednar. We
Speaker 2: know that Brian Cashman is one who likes to pick
Speaker 2: up relievers with years of control. This is obviously a
Speaker 2: perfect example of that. I'm going to build a package
Speaker 2: here around Henry Lelane, that twenty two year old lefty
Speaker 2: of theirs, who's six foot seven. I'm not quite sure
Speaker 2: if that's enough to get this done, but he's someone
Speaker 2: whom I view as as having these amount of upside
Speaker 2: based on the body, based on the trajectory, of course,
Speaker 2: and potentially someone that David Starns can dream on. Meanwhile,
Speaker 2: they can take on that entire seventeen million dollar contract
Speaker 2: across the next two years, hand in the baseball in
Speaker 2: the eighth inning, and feel fairly good about doing so
Speaker 2: anytime that they do so.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just think I value Luke Weaver a little
Speaker 3: bit higher than you, and arguably a lot higher. I
Speaker 3: think he is among the handful of the best relievers
Speaker 3: in Major League Baseball. I really do. I think he's
Speaker 3: been phenomenal this season, and I think he's been asked
Speaker 3: to do a lot in this Mets pen. He's coming
Speaker 3: in every situation you could possibly imagine. And this is
Speaker 3: also a continuation. This isn't Luke Weaver who is now
Speaker 3: having a good season. Luke Weaver has been one of
Speaker 3: the better relievers in baseball now over the past what
Speaker 3: what is it? Arm three seasons.
Speaker 4: Free with a little bit of turbulence last year, but
Speaker 4: still like the underlying was good and yeah, fine, Air.
Speaker 3: I think that the Yankees are a great fit. I
Speaker 3: think they'd have to give up more, especially because this
Speaker 3: reliever market it's pretty weak. There's not a lot of
Speaker 3: top end guys that these teams can go after. And
Speaker 3: when I look at every single reliever trade that ends
Speaker 3: up happening at the deadline him. But what's our reaction, Well,
Speaker 3: that's an overpay. Well, that's pay Well, they're all overpays,
Speaker 3: like we just we got to get used to it.
Speaker 3: It's almost like in free agency when a guy gets
Speaker 3: way more money than we thought, and then so does
Speaker 3: the next guy. These guys are just more expensive. I
Speaker 3: think Luke Weaver is gonna get the Mets the top
Speaker 3: one hunderd prospect at the end of all and let me,
Speaker 3: let me explain, my, my, my. I talked to Ryan
Speaker 3: Finkelstein and that's what he was expecting. And then I
Speaker 3: pitched this player over to Lyle and TJ of the
Speaker 3: Marien Layer podcast, and they both said, they're a little
Speaker 3: bit lower on this guy, but he is still quote
Speaker 3: unquote un arms top one hundred. And that's Zara Montes
Speaker 3: for Luke Weaver straight up. Now you look at lazarro
Speaker 3: Mantes and you say that guy could lead major League
Speaker 3: Baseball in homers, but there's a reason arm that he
Speaker 3: ranks eighty four on your top one hundred. Doesn't have
Speaker 3: much of a position, and he's striking out thirty one
Speaker 3: percent of the time in the minors. He strikes out
Speaker 3: so much, so you have the upside of a guy
Speaker 3: who could at thirty to forty homers, but you also
Speaker 3: have the downside of a guy who's never going to
Speaker 3: make enough contact to be an everyday guy. But you
Speaker 3: have that high end tool, which makes him again a
Speaker 3: borderline or end of the top one hundred guy. I
Speaker 3: don't think the Mariners would feel it. He's a great piece,
Speaker 3: but Luke Weaver is perfect for the Mariner's bullpen comes
Speaker 3: with a year and a half of control, like I said,
Speaker 3: and after Munos, the rity that has to do a
Speaker 3: lot of the work in the Mariners bullpen is Bizardo,
Speaker 3: who's good but not great, and they have two solid lefties.
Speaker 3: But a righty reliever like this goes right behind Munos
Speaker 3: sets this bullpen up so well. Maybe it's an overpay,
Speaker 3: but I thought to myself, every reliever trade feels like
Speaker 3: an overpay to me, and both our Mets guy and
Speaker 3: our Maritors guy loved it, so I'm presenting it to them.
Speaker 4: So I was just on the Marine layerpod explaining why
Speaker 4: I think Las Monts is one of the most overrated
Speaker 4: prospects in a really long time, and Mariners fans in
Speaker 4: particular seem to have levels of delusion with him, and
Speaker 4: I feel bad because I wanted to succeed.
Speaker 1: I think he'd be really good.
Speaker 4: There's a ton of power, but like to fifty eight percent,
Speaker 4: maybe it's gotten up to sixty percent contact rate in
Speaker 4: the minor leagues, which would mean he would need to
Speaker 4: improve his contact right in the major leagues to be
Speaker 4: like at the barrier of entry. Even for the most
Speaker 4: powerful of power bats, right, So that's where it's interesting.
Speaker 4: At the same time, it's been interesting how much the
Speaker 4: Mariners have held on to allow Monts to this point,
Speaker 4: So like, do you hold on to him to this
Speaker 4: point and then at triple A trade him for a
Speaker 4: reliever that you still have to pay anyways, is the
Speaker 4: interesting point. And we talked about it in the last episode,
Speaker 4: and I thought, I've kind of waffled back and forth
Speaker 4: on what the value of Luke Lever could be because
Speaker 4: I think as a reliever he's one of the best
Speaker 4: that you're going to be able to acquire at this deadline.
Speaker 1: But at the same time, like.
Speaker 4: Thirteen million dollars next year, plus you know whatever else
Speaker 4: you're taking on this year. You had the exact number, right,
Speaker 4: how about was it fourteen total or fifteen total?
Speaker 2: So you're taking about I've got seventeen million from this
Speaker 2: day forward across the next two years. I mean, that's
Speaker 2: that is a pretty penny, even if you're paying for
Speaker 2: someone who you trust implicitly in the identity.
Speaker 4: That's my only concern is I'm just trying to think
Speaker 4: how many teams are going to just line up to
Speaker 4: take that on.
Speaker 1: I do wonder about the optics.
Speaker 4: As funny as that is, but the way the Mariners
Speaker 4: have packaged Lazaro Montes to their fans is this where
Speaker 4: you cash in? Is this where you do it? That's
Speaker 4: where I have a little bit of doubt. I love
Speaker 4: Henry Lallane. I think he's he's really interesting and and
Speaker 4: just getting healthy has been huge for him. Positionless slugger
Speaker 4: or left handed pitching that who's in Triple A or
Speaker 4: left handed pitching prospect at the lower levels.
Speaker 1: This is like a crazy.
Speaker 4: Brain twister, and I think he's I think the value
Speaker 4: somewhere in between these these two packages. But because the
Speaker 4: last one, like I almost think you you went to
Speaker 4: brain blast here, Peter, and I think it's just it's
Speaker 4: overwhelming me. I'm going to go with the lower level
Speaker 4: upside arm and and go with the keeping Luke Weaver
Speaker 4: in New York where he clearly likes being and and
Speaker 4: I'm going to go with HIMBO on this one.
Speaker 3: Love it too too. Let's move over to Robbie Ray Rental.
Speaker 3: You get him for the rest of the season, but
Speaker 3: he's putting up an awesome year one hundred plus innings,
Speaker 3: low three z Ra underlying metrics might not love him,
Speaker 3: but he's a rental good picture staple, right, kind of
Speaker 3: like Michael Waka just comes with less years of control.
Speaker 3: He can get you a bunch of strikeouts, you can
Speaker 3: start a playoff game. You feel good about Robbie Ray.
Speaker 3: Hembo mock trades for Robbie Ray.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you sent Michael Wakat to Atlanta. I'm sending Robbie
Speaker 2: Ray to Atlanta. He's got nine million dollars remaining that
Speaker 2: you owe him, and I think I think we're going
Speaker 2: to get fairly creative here. Yes, I agree with you. You
Speaker 2: trust him in a playoff context? Do you prefer if
Speaker 2: he starts game three for you? If he has to
Speaker 2: start game two, you feel decent about it, so long
Speaker 2: as jord On Alvarez, of course, is not on the
Speaker 2: other end. The peripherals obviously not great, but good enough,
Speaker 2: like you said, to feel good about that situation. We're
Speaker 2: gonna get a interesting though with this package, and I'm
Speaker 2: dying to see how our arbiter reacts to it. What
Speaker 2: I'm gonna do here is present a scenario in which
Speaker 2: the Giants are effectively going to buy prospects from the
Speaker 2: Braves and Here's what I mean. The Braves are gonna
Speaker 2: send Sean Murphy in the thirty six million dollars that
Speaker 2: they still owe him. They also have a fifteen million
Speaker 2: dollar team option in twenty twenty nine. So that's his
Speaker 2: side of things. There's sending Sean Murphy to the Giants
Speaker 2: in addition to John Heel who's a twenty year old
Speaker 2: shortstop and Briggs McKenzie, a nineteen year old left handed pitcher.
Speaker 2: It's a three for one Robbie wait right, excuse me,
Speaker 2: Robbie Ray a rental going to Atlanta to be their
Speaker 2: number two or number three starter. In exchange, you're going
Speaker 2: to absorb a pretty underwater contract at this point. Maybe
Speaker 2: Buster Posey wild like to have an adult in his
Speaker 2: catcher room, and they're going to take on a couple
Speaker 2: of prospects that are it sounds like you're awfully intrigued
Speaker 2: to hear me say the names allowed.
Speaker 4: Is this also an like when you're theorizing this, Is
Speaker 4: this a clear up room for the Braves to make
Speaker 4: another move as well?
Speaker 2: Not necessarily, but this is a move for the Braves
Speaker 2: to do. Is have some financial flexibility to get rid
Speaker 2: of the Sean Murphy contract, whom they've held on to
Speaker 2: for much too long. But Buster Posey does all sorts
Speaker 2: of erratic things. I think this is a scenario in
Speaker 2: which he's going to get himself a couple prospects and
Speaker 2: be willing to take on a contract when he has
Speaker 2: no catcher in the organization right now because he gave away,
Speaker 2: because he gave away Patrick Mayley to Cleveland for very little,
Speaker 2: for reasons that are still unbeknownst to me. Ultimately, it's
Speaker 2: a very bizarre trade, and it's not the kind of
Speaker 2: thing that you know, we're gonna send Robbie Ray for
Speaker 2: a player or two in the minor leagues. Who's gonna
Speaker 2: watch our match our model? Excuse me, I wanted to
Speaker 2: get creative here. I think the Sean Murphy contract is
Speaker 2: kind of a wild card that the Braves could play.
Speaker 3: So I like that idea, and I think the Sean
Speaker 3: Murphy wrinkle is fascinating. Mine is much more standard, but
Speaker 3: it's not for a standard team. I've Robby Ray going
Speaker 3: over to the Chicago White Sox, and we've talked about
Speaker 3: the White Sox that they should be buying with control.
Speaker 3: But I also think you could flip that narrative on
Speaker 3: its head and say, well, you'd have to trade away
Speaker 3: some pretty damn good prospects in order to get players
Speaker 3: with control. So is it such a bad idea to
Speaker 3: fill a big need for the White Sox and not
Speaker 3: trade away any prospects of note in doing so. So
Speaker 3: I really looked at the Merrill Kelly trade from twenty
Speaker 3: twenty five to the Rangers. It's like a veteran guy
Speaker 3: who you trust. Underlying metrics aren't gonna love these guys,
Speaker 3: but they're solid. So that's kind of the blueprint that
Speaker 3: I used from the Chicago White Sox. So yours is
Speaker 3: much more creative. Mine's pretty straightforward, and it's these three prospects.
Speaker 3: You got David Sandlin, who's twenty five years old, has
Speaker 3: been up to Major League Baseball. You got Kyle Lodez,
Speaker 3: who's a twenty two year old, decent season in High A,
Speaker 3: who's a third round pick in twenty twenty five, and
Speaker 3: arm you're gonna have to help him.
Speaker 1: I will on the edge of my seat for the Javier.
Speaker 1: I think it's mcgillion.
Speaker 3: Mcgollion. Let's go with the guyant, twenty year old ten
Speaker 3: ops and high a good runner, solid power. I actually
Speaker 3: worked with our guy, Elijah Evans, the host of the
Speaker 3: Future Socks podcast, is a great job covering the White Sox,
Speaker 3: and he felt this was a fair deal in exchange
Speaker 3: for Robbie Ray.
Speaker 4: This is where it's interesting. So the Braves, So the
Speaker 4: Braves will love Briggs mackenzie. No guy, Now, do they
Speaker 4: want to attach Briggs McKenzie in his salary?
Speaker 1: Dumb? Is my concern.
Speaker 4: The other thing though, is I don't know if the
Speaker 4: White Sox want to trade prospects period for a rental
Speaker 4: like even and I know that these aren't like huge
Speaker 4: pieces or anything like that.
Speaker 3: Elijah did say that they'd theoretically be open to it,
Speaker 3: but you're right, I think it's like, that's not the answer.
Speaker 1: To the question. There's seven over five hundred.
Speaker 4: There's seven over five hundred now, and like if you're
Speaker 4: if you're having around seven to ten over five hundred
Speaker 4: at the deadline in this state of the American League,
Speaker 4: maybe the plan changes a little bit for guys that
Speaker 4: you know, at the end of the day are not
Speaker 4: going to Sanduin could be one that you regret when
Speaker 4: he's in a sick, high leverage reliever or whatever.
Speaker 1: But like I don't know. I don't think it's as
Speaker 1: big of a deal.
Speaker 4: I want to give Himbo so many creativity points, so
Speaker 4: because I think that's a brilliant trade.
Speaker 1: I My only problem with it is that he attached a.
Speaker 4: Guy that, by all indications is one of the favorites
Speaker 4: in this Brave system that they've been super careful with,
Speaker 4: kind of had the baby gloves on, just rolled him
Speaker 4: out there. I've been really impressed with what he's been
Speaker 4: doing early on here, and you know, the Braves are
Speaker 4: like the classic how do they get this guy? Where'd
Speaker 4: he come from? Mackenzie has the potential to be the
Speaker 4: latest example of that. He also has the potential to
Speaker 4: walk too many guys, But so far this year looks
Speaker 4: pretty sharp. I don't think they're going to attach him
Speaker 4: in a salary dump, as creative as that is, and
Speaker 4: so I'll go with the rental standard Peter trade here
Speaker 4: because I think that's ultimately the most likely.
Speaker 1: But I love what he did there.
Speaker 4: I think if Hembo attached somebody other than Briggs Mackenzie,
Speaker 4: I think he has me.
Speaker 3: So I have three wins. One is for being stupid
Speaker 3: and the other one is for being boring. So in
Speaker 3: my head, I'm still technically down to the war, but
Speaker 3: the scoreboard does read at the current moment three to me, Hembo,
Speaker 3: we got about fifteen sixteen minutes left with you. Let's
Speaker 3: go straight to Mason Miller, just so we make sure,
Speaker 3: maybe that we could talk about Mason Miller. Mason Miller
Speaker 3: mock trades. Three and a half years of control. You
Speaker 3: get him from ages twenty seven, which he is right now,
Speaker 3: up until his age thirty season. You shortened the game
Speaker 3: to eight innings for the next three and a half
Speaker 3: seasons with arguably the best reliever that we've seen since
Speaker 3: Mariano Rivera. Now, of course you got a roll to Chapman.
Speaker 3: You got Craig Kimberle in his prime, you got Kenlee
Speaker 3: Jansen in his prime. Potential Hall of famers. Mason Miller
Speaker 3: might be more talented than all of them. The numbers
Speaker 3: speak for themselves. He's given up twenty one hits and
Speaker 3: forty plus innings this year with seventy eight strikeouts. He's
Speaker 3: given up four runs this year, zero blown saves. He's
Speaker 3: blown seven saves in three years. Not much else to
Speaker 3: say Himbo, what are your mock trades for Mason Miller.
Speaker 2: I hope Arham is prepared with his airbag to adjudicate
Speaker 2: this one. But I'm setting Mason Miller to Milwaukee. I'm
Speaker 2: sending Mason Miller to the Milwaukee Brewer. He's under team control,
Speaker 2: like you said, through the twenty twenties, and they're one
Speaker 2: of the few teams in baseball that could afford it,
Speaker 2: and much more importantly, afford it responsibly. My package is this.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna send josh Adam, Jeeski, Praylan Payne, Bishop Letson,
Speaker 2: and Salfrielick in a four for one from Milwaukee to
Speaker 2: San Diego. And the reason why they're doing this, the
Speaker 2: reason why they could justify doing this, because ultimately this
Speaker 2: is not a model breaker. Teams like these, as you know,
Speaker 2: guys are much less inclined to do splashy things at
Speaker 2: the deadline because they're often accompanied by the rental and
Speaker 2: teams that operate in this market can't afford to do
Speaker 2: deals like that for rentals. But when you're dealing with
Speaker 2: someone that can impact four pennant races and like you said, Peter,
Speaker 2: change the math in every game in series that you play,
Speaker 2: this is a justifiable thing for Milwaukee to do. If
Speaker 2: you talk to people that cover the Yankees and oppose
Speaker 2: the Yankees back in the late nineties, they talked about
Speaker 2: not only the dominance that Mario Rivera demonstrated a ninth then,
Speaker 2: but the fact that he changed the math. You had
Speaker 2: to prepare to win the game an eighth inning against
Speaker 2: the yank and eight innings against the Yankees, and that's
Speaker 2: what you're gonna have to do when you play the Brewers.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 2: Imagine handing the ball from Jacob Mizarowski to Mason Miller
Speaker 2: in Game six of the NLCS with Kyle Tucker shaking
Speaker 2: in his boots in the batter's box. That's what's at
Speaker 2: stake here. This is something that they can do, and
Speaker 2: they don't have the ability at the trade deadline to
Speaker 2: get five people to improve their roster so much so
Speaker 2: that they're going to overtake the Dodgers from that standpoint.
Speaker 2: But he's a win probability swinger, and what he can
Speaker 2: be in any playoff series is a complete and utter
Speaker 2: math changer. So do I think it's likely? Certainly not.
Speaker 2: But this is a system that is so good that
Speaker 2: you could say that it's gluttonous, almost so good that
Speaker 2: if you don't act right now, you might appreciate the
Speaker 2: value of.
Speaker 3: Some of these people.
Speaker 2: So look, you're gonna be able to retain the top
Speaker 2: five guys in your system, but you're gonna give up
Speaker 2: a bunch and get Mason Miller for the next three
Speaker 2: plus years.
Speaker 3: Man. It's that combination of I absolutely love the fit
Speaker 3: and I think it's a banger trade, and then in
Speaker 3: my mind goes, no way the Brewers do it. It's
Speaker 3: just because the Brewers are the Brewers. Now, like I
Speaker 3: hope you're right, that is a cooler trade than what
Speaker 3: I'm going to bring up, especially because the one that
Speaker 3: I brought up we've already posted online and Yankee fans
Speaker 3: want nothing to do with it, which is exactly why
Speaker 3: it's probably in the ballpark of what the San Diego
Speaker 3: Padres are going to need now. They came out reported
Speaker 3: we need at least two top one hundred prospects. Here
Speaker 3: you go George Lombard, let's part with him, and of
Speaker 3: course Carlos Legronjey and then you got that flyer of
Speaker 3: Spencer Jones and MLB Ready outfielder. I think the debate
Speaker 3: is is he MLB Ready even though he's been in
Speaker 3: Majriague Baseball, did not exactly put up great numbers. You know,
Speaker 3: he's a first round pick. I think some people probably
Speaker 3: still think he has potential, but he is the clear
Speaker 3: third option. In this trade. You get a top twenty
Speaker 3: prospect in baseball per ARM, Carlos Legronjey recently ranked number
Speaker 3: fifty four by ARM. It's pretty damn good package. And
Speaker 3: with the Yankees, I know the fans don't want to
Speaker 3: give up on George Lombard, and I think he could
Speaker 3: be a really, really solid player. But at the end
Speaker 3: of the day, how many of these top prospects that
Speaker 3: have been promised to Yankee fans that both Brian Cashman
Speaker 3: and the fans don't want to trade, how many of
Speaker 3: them have panned out. Let's have a real honest talk.
Speaker 3: Meet the Yankee fans right here, and you say, well,
Speaker 3: I don't want a reliever. You're getting the best reliever
Speaker 3: that you've had since Mariano Rivera. And that includes Clay Holmes,
Speaker 3: who had a bunch of really solid seasons as the closer.
Speaker 3: That includes a role as Chapman who's had awesome seasons
Speaker 3: as the Yankees closer. They were their best was in
Speaker 3: the mid two Zra Mason Miller has a zero eighty six.
Speaker 3: Mason Miller has ascended with the A's he was on
Speaker 3: the Chapman Holmes level. He's ascended into something that you
Speaker 3: can't even put into words. You get to end games
Speaker 3: by the ninth inning. For the next three and a
Speaker 3: half seasons, you pair Bednar, and I think the Yankees
Speaker 3: kind of need a relief pitcher badly, and a high
Speaker 3: leverage one. Because I think about this, I think Paul
Speaker 3: Blackburn and Brent Headrick have had great seasons those year
Speaker 3: seven and eight guys in the playoffs. I know for
Speaker 3: Nano Cruz is great too. I need a name. I
Speaker 3: need a Mason Miller, David Bednar. You don't have that
Speaker 3: much time left with Judge and with Cole Freed was
Speaker 3: throwing ninety eight. Let's go do it, Mason Miller to
Speaker 3: the Yankees for these three it's gonna hurt, but good.
Speaker 3: You're gonna have to overpay a little bit.
Speaker 4: Go ahead on follow up questions for each of you. First, Peter,
Speaker 4: do you do you actually think the Yankees would do this?
Speaker 4: Because you mentioned you have your reliever for the next
Speaker 4: three and a half years, who plays on the left
Speaker 4: side of the infield for the next six.
Speaker 3: Well, Brian Cashman wanted to trade for Ryan McMahon, he
Speaker 3: can have that. He loves Volpi, so I bet if
Speaker 3: you asked him he'd be like, this is a good
Speaker 3: left side of the infield. We both disagree, but if
Speaker 3: you ask Cashman how many times has he defended this
Speaker 3: left out of the infield? And he loves Jose Cabierro,
Speaker 3: so we agree.
Speaker 2: But I mean m to answer your question for Peter,
Speaker 2: the answer to that question is going to be Xander Billgarts.
Speaker 2: If they do something like this, the answer to your
Speaker 2: question is Xander Billguarts because they're.
Speaker 4: Also losing Jazz, so they have no no infielders nobody.
Speaker 1: I think. I think they're holding onto Lombard for dear life.
Speaker 1: I really do. I don't know. If there's a world
Speaker 1: where they move them, I might.
Speaker 2: How close is that's Kilbya.
Speaker 1: He's played six four games this year.
Speaker 4: He came back like first game back from a hammy,
Speaker 4: or so they say, and then yeah, left the left
Speaker 4: again and we haven't seen him. So the guy hasn't
Speaker 4: even played. He's played twenty something games. A low Ay,
Speaker 4: that's it.
Speaker 1: Okay, and there's nobody.
Speaker 4: Else, so it's awesome. As Mason Miller is real quick.
Speaker 4: The package from the Brewers again it was.
Speaker 2: It was Adam Schevsky, Braylan Payne, it was Bishop Left,
Speaker 2: Bishop Watson, South sal is gonna be there, or you know,
Speaker 2: Ramon Loreano Flyer. I hope they can turn them into.
Speaker 1: That so optically.
Speaker 4: Can a J Peller do it without getting one of
Speaker 4: the Brewers top five prospects? I think so when it's
Speaker 4: the best system in baseball by a mile, maybe one
Speaker 4: of the best systems ever.
Speaker 2: It's an awfully good system. I want to just share
Speaker 2: for you a quick exchange I had yesterday VIAT text
Speaker 2: with podcast p who talked me out of my what
Speaker 2: he's describing in our chat as OG package, my OG
Speaker 2: package before I was dissuaded by whatever Brewers propaganda you
Speaker 2: had planted in my in my phone yesterday was Louis Pana,
Speaker 2: Bishop Letson and South Freelick. And he taught me off
Speaker 2: that ledge based upon conversations that you've had with their
Speaker 2: farm people. And perhaps you're right, and perhaps they love
Speaker 2: the kid. But that was originally my package and instead
Speaker 2: of three for wanting it I'm four for wanting it,
Speaker 2: knowing full well that that might not be enough to
Speaker 2: land Mason Miller.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm torn because I think I don't see how
Speaker 4: the Yankees can do this, But I also think the
Speaker 4: Brewers would have to give up a little bit more.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna side, though, with with the Brewers package here
Speaker 4: because I just think that the bulk of it is
Speaker 4: so crazy in the amount of talent for guys that
Speaker 4: I know Prower would love to add to this system,
Speaker 4: I think would be hard to deny.
Speaker 3: All right, three to three. Now, let's go over to
Speaker 3: Spencer's steer. And this is an interesting one. Got two
Speaker 3: and a half years of control, He's cheap, He's been
Speaker 3: a solid hitter right, He's about ten percent above league gaverage,
Speaker 3: can provide some power, can play a bunch of different positions,
Speaker 3: albeit not all that well, but can play a bunch
Speaker 3: of different positions. Humbo will throw it over to you.
Speaker 3: Who needs a right handed bat who can kind of
Speaker 3: play everywhere?
Speaker 2: Seattle does it sounds like I like this player more
Speaker 2: than you do. I'm sending him to Seattle in exchange
Speaker 2: in a one for one for Michael Arroyo. It might
Speaker 2: sound awfully expensive. If you're a Mariners fan, you're probably
Speaker 2: shouting me down from the mountaintops right now. But Spencer
Speaker 2: theear is going to be someone who Jerry Depoto's model
Speaker 2: I think really favors. You mentioned the position versatility, the
Speaker 2: platoon versatility, the controllable nature. He's almost like a poor
Speaker 2: man's Brendan Donovan in that sense, and I think Michael
Speaker 2: Arroyo candidly is blocked. It's gonna be a really tough
Speaker 2: time for him to find himself playing time. And I
Speaker 2: think what they would hate to do is run the
Speaker 2: same play that they ran with Harry Ford by retaining
Speaker 2: him for it. Let's be honest, probably a year two long,
Speaker 2: So it's a straight up one for one. Spencer'st year
Speaker 2: for Michael Arroyo.
Speaker 3: So I think the main reason I might just be
Speaker 3: a little bit lower than you, and maybe my package
Speaker 3: might not even be that much lower than you. That's
Speaker 3: why I'm curious what arm thinks, yeah, is he's got
Speaker 3: a six forty seven OPS against right handed pitching this season,
Speaker 3: and he's got a six to eighty ops on the road,
Speaker 3: two numbers I don't love, but to be fair does
Speaker 3: come with all those years of control. He's still relatively young,
Speaker 3: and he could play a bunch of different positions. So
Speaker 3: I think the Phillies need a bat like that, your
Speaker 3: Phillies right hand a bat. We were talking with Ryan
Speaker 3: Howard at the lid's event. What did he say, right
Speaker 3: handed bat. It's like the most important thing. And I
Speaker 3: think Steer is that guy. And these three prospects, I'm
Speaker 3: really curious what you think. We're starting off with Dante Nori,
Speaker 3: who was first round pick in twenty twenty four. Is
Speaker 3: his speedy, you know, lefty outfielder. He's on the smaller side,
Speaker 3: He's twenty one, looks okay, it's like a pretty good player.
Speaker 3: Cody Bauker again, third round pick in twenty twenty five,
Speaker 3: Rdy low slot, good strikeout to walk ratio and high
Speaker 3: a though at twenty two. And then Raylan Heredia who
Speaker 3: strikes out a lot, but he's got some juice arm
Speaker 3: Which package you taken.
Speaker 4: So I'm taking the Arroyo package. However, however, I think
Speaker 4: there's a couple wrinkles here that are important.
Speaker 3: One.
Speaker 4: The Mariners, by all accounts, I think like Arroyo more
Speaker 4: than they like last Monts, and they like Arroyo, I think,
Speaker 4: to potentially be the air apparent in left field. I
Speaker 4: think Arroyo might even end up being their short platoon
Speaker 4: guy as soon as this year.
Speaker 1: They've got I'm up in trip Away, He's playing left field.
Speaker 1: They love this guy.
Speaker 4: They've been asking him to play different positions all over
Speaker 4: to try to find a way to get that bat
Speaker 4: in the lineup, and anyone I talked to in the
Speaker 4: Mariners organization just just won't stop gushing about this guy.
Speaker 4: So I think they would be more likely to move
Speaker 4: a Lass than an Arroyo. And I think for a
Speaker 4: Royal with like right, they're gonna lose Randy. I think
Speaker 4: they're looking at a Royal is the guy that could
Speaker 4: play left field for them, you know, next year, and
Speaker 4: potentially even fill in this year. So I think they
Speaker 4: might see that as they might look at a Royal
Speaker 4: and say, this guy could just be Spencer's steer for us.
Speaker 4: And I know that's a bold and ambitious but with
Speaker 4: the way they talk about him, I think that's how
Speaker 4: they feel. So a little bit of conjecture there, but
Speaker 4: I've been it's all I've heard when it comes to
Speaker 4: a Royal, And again, he's really picked up this year
Speaker 4: and he's finding more comfort and left and can plug
Speaker 4: in second if you ever needed it, so at least
Speaker 4: gives you and third if you really needed it as well,
Speaker 4: so it gives you similar versatility.
Speaker 1: I'm going to go with Peter's package here.
Speaker 4: I don't love the package overall, but I think with
Speaker 4: the Dante Nori is so Nick Crawl coded with TJ.
Speaker 4: Friedel and all these other left handed hitting outfielders that
Speaker 4: don't hurt the ball very hard or whatever, like, I
Speaker 4: think it fits. The bill Backer's a fun arm to
Speaker 4: throw into the fold. Could end up being a nice
Speaker 4: relief piece for you too, and I think that's probably
Speaker 4: closer to the value.
Speaker 1: So I go team Pete here.
Speaker 3: So we got three players left, and Hembo is nice
Speaker 3: enough to grant us ten more minutes thank you, because
Speaker 3: we still have three guys left, but one last message
Speaker 3: from our friends at Hampton Farms peanuts. Three players left,
Speaker 3: and I want to start with Luisa Riaz because I
Speaker 3: think Luisa Rise is a pretty straightforward conversation. Hembo, you
Speaker 3: get him for the rest of twenty twenty six, has
Speaker 3: made improvements defensively. He's hitting three twenty and that's basically
Speaker 3: what you get right from Louis a. Rias. So give
Speaker 3: us your mock trade.
Speaker 2: I'm sending him to Boston. I'm gonna watch him Wade
Speaker 2: Boggs baseballs off the Green Monster for the last few
Speaker 2: months of the season, and it's a one for one
Speaker 2: for Jan Valera, a twenty year old right handed pitcher
Speaker 2: who is going to inject some life into the Giant system.
Speaker 2: I think they're just going to go eight just in
Speaker 2: terms of aggregating talent said decent enough live arm and
Speaker 2: I think Luis Ariz is someone that you can dream on,
Speaker 2: at least a little bit in that ballpark. I can
Speaker 2: imagine Craig Breslo buying into his OAA bump at second base,
Speaker 2: though I view him as a lot more of an
Speaker 2: average or ordinary second baseman, but he's certainly passable now
Speaker 2: a straight up run one for one, and selfishly, I
Speaker 2: love to see Luisa Rise bop the baseball in that ballpark.
Speaker 3: So this is where I go over to the Tampa
Speaker 3: Bay Rays, and I love the fit with Tampa for
Speaker 3: a few reasons. Number one, I love the idea of
Speaker 3: the nine hitter being Chandler Simpson and your leadoff hitter
Speaker 3: being Luisa a Rias, and then you hand it off
Speaker 3: to your three boppers and Yanni Diaz, Junior Camenaro and
Speaker 3: Jonathan Ronda. I just feel like that's good baseball, Like
Speaker 3: when Chandler Simpson is in the nine hole and you
Speaker 3: have this contact oriented guy who could do a bunch
Speaker 3: of hit and runs. Just feels so raised to me.
Speaker 3: And when I consider they're right side of the infield,
Speaker 3: you're not moving off Yanni obviously, but Richie Pelasio's you
Speaker 3: can kind of play anywhere, and it's not like he's
Speaker 3: having a great season. And I think the Rays do
Speaker 3: need a bat. I like the deal for a pitcher.
Speaker 3: I think they're going to be one of the more
Speaker 3: active teams of the deadline, so maybe my package is
Speaker 3: a little bit stronger for Riots at the end of
Speaker 3: the days. Is that like a three win season or right?
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I had Michael Forett, who is writy with good stuff,
Speaker 3: twenty two year old in Double A Army ranks twelfth
Speaker 3: on your top twenty Rais Prospects on Just Baseball dot
Speaker 3: Com and Brailer Guerrero who's a twenty year old in
Speaker 3: A ball and I was reading you right up on him.
Speaker 3: Strong eggs of velos plus power, but kind of average hit.
Speaker 3: I think this would be a solid package in order
Speaker 3: to get and go for it.
Speaker 4: So quick quick clarification two for those in the chat
Speaker 4: not picking the favorite, like the best package. If I
Speaker 4: were trading Spencer Steer, of course that would have been
Speaker 4: a Royoes. It was the most realistic what we think
Speaker 4: could happen. That's why we thought Arroyo was too much
Speaker 4: and that the Mariners wouldn't do it. Just to clarify
Speaker 4: for the chat quickly here though, I actually like I'd
Speaker 4: I'd rather have one Vllera than those two. And Michael Ferrett,
Speaker 4: like a lot of people like yeah, ro I used
Speaker 4: to love and then I watched him swing and missing
Speaker 4: the Arizona Fall League. I think eighty five percent of
Speaker 4: the time, poor guy has not been able to stay
Speaker 4: healthy and it's just been tough. But it would be
Speaker 4: a fun flyer as a secondary piece. I like that shout,
Speaker 4: but I look at the Red Sox. I think a
Speaker 4: lot of teams would be very apprehensive to trade a
Speaker 4: Vollera for a rental, but I don't think in this situation,
Speaker 4: with how this team is played and a GM that
Speaker 4: or Pobo that really wants to hold onto his job
Speaker 4: now and looks like he will, but to really sprint
Speaker 4: through the finish line here. I don't think he's gonna
Speaker 4: mind trading a pitcher when he spawns him. You can
Speaker 4: say whatever you want. I've said everything I've wanted to
Speaker 4: say about the guy in charge there, Craig Breslow, but
Speaker 4: I cannot take away what he does with pitching the
Speaker 4: upside there.
Speaker 1: I think the Giants would love to add an arm
Speaker 1: like that.
Speaker 4: They need more arms in that system, even after adding Flora.
Speaker 4: I think I like the Valera swap straight up, just
Speaker 4: with the upside and what he brings to the table himbo.
Speaker 3: I don't know if arm is doing this on purpose,
Speaker 3: but we got two left ands tied four to four.
Speaker 3: We got ourselves a high ball game, were crushing it.
Speaker 3: Let's move over to Clay Holmes, probably just for the
Speaker 3: rest of this season. He does have a player option
Speaker 3: next year, but I'm assuming he'll opt out, so I'm
Speaker 3: kind of treating it as a rental. How did you
Speaker 3: treat it? What's your mock trade for Clay Holmes?
Speaker 2: Kind of like a rental, another straightforward one that we
Speaker 2: don't need to spend too much time on It's about
Speaker 2: a five million dollar responsibility the rest of this season.
Speaker 2: I'm sending him to San Diego. I think aj Preller
Speaker 2: might try and have his cake and eat it too
Speaker 2: an off excuse me, a trade deadline in which he
Speaker 2: can trade Mason Miller and recoup a bunch of assets,
Speaker 2: as we've discussed already, but also kind of head for
Speaker 2: the possibility that his big three just kind of bangs
Speaker 2: simultaneously for the last few months of the season in
Speaker 2: exchange for Ty Harvey. Ty Harvey is a player that
Speaker 2: I wrote that a nineteen year old catcher who's blocked
Speaker 2: by Ethan Sallas. It's a one for one swap. I'm
Speaker 2: sending Clay Holmes to San Diego.
Speaker 3: I just don't think the As soon as the words
Speaker 3: I don't think going to buy came out of my mouth,
Speaker 3: I was like, they can lose the next five games,
Speaker 3: and I still think Preller is going to be creative.
Speaker 3: So I think the Padres should be, you know, in
Speaker 3: the bucket of teams that could potentially go for him.
Speaker 3: I went with a fit that I sneaky love, and
Speaker 3: that's Clay Holmes to the Rangers. Because the Rangers are
Speaker 3: atop the American League West. I feel like they are
Speaker 3: the forgotten team in Major League Baseball right now. They're
Speaker 3: not great, but they're atop the division. And Chris Young
Speaker 3: has always been aggressive. He always makes the move where
Speaker 3: you're like, whoa, they came out of nowhere. When the
Speaker 3: Rangers continually do this. They made the trade for McKenzie Gore,
Speaker 3: and because they made the trade for Mckensi Gordon, it's
Speaker 3: not going all that great. I think they need a
Speaker 3: really solid pitcher. But if mackenzie Gore catches fire down
Speaker 3: the stretch, maybe Clay Holmes is your quasi bullpen fourth
Speaker 3: starter and they could really use kind of a bullpen
Speaker 3: armor two as well. So I really love the fit
Speaker 3: with Clay Holmes in Texas. And this is my package.
Speaker 3: Jose Corneil, who he's been injured. He's got bad results
Speaker 3: so far, but he's got stupid stuff. I was watching
Speaker 3: some of his highlights on YouTube stuff. But again, that's
Speaker 3: why I'm throwing over to arm as the arbiter. Winston Santos,
Speaker 3: another one twenty four year old guy in Triple A.
Speaker 3: Three good pitches with good command, and you have Malcolm Moore,
Speaker 3: twenty two year old catcher in double A seven ninety
Speaker 3: one ohps some power, first round pick in twenty twenty
Speaker 3: four arum Our arbiter. What do you think?
Speaker 1: I like the Rangers fit more.
Speaker 4: I think the package is a little steep, and I
Speaker 4: also think Hembo's is a little light. So now I'm
Speaker 4: just stuck in between. It's been a bad year for
Speaker 4: Santos though I love this stuff. Corneelle has just been
Speaker 4: frustrating a little bit, and the Rangers have done a
Speaker 4: good job with their arms of late.
Speaker 1: Malcolm Moore, I.
Speaker 4: You don't want to move your first round or that quickly,
Speaker 4: but like he just I think he kind of just
Speaker 4: is what he is at this point. Even though it's
Speaker 4: been a better year, it's got to be bat driven,
Speaker 4: repeated high a and still kind of just finding his
Speaker 4: foot in a double.
Speaker 1: It's a lot to give up, though I'm gonna go.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with the Peter package here on this
Speaker 4: and though I like to fit more, and I think
Speaker 4: I think for an arm that it really depends what
Speaker 4: he looks like when he comes back. But I think
Speaker 4: if he looks half decent is going to require a
Speaker 4: little bit more and it's a good bio opportunity for
Speaker 4: the Mets on a couple of arms that they just need.
Speaker 3: You know what, Hambo, did you factor in injury concerns
Speaker 3: at all to your package?
Speaker 2: I'd love to know. I mean, if he comes back
Speaker 2: and like you know, lou Bob just hit a four
Speaker 2: D and fifty one foot bomb, so all of a sudden,
Speaker 2: Dave Dombrowski, remember he existed, so we want to trade
Speaker 2: three of his five best prospects for him. The same
Speaker 2: thing could happen with Clay Holmes. And if he comes
Speaker 2: out and shoves and looks great. The thing that makes
Speaker 2: him so palatable, as you guys know, is you can
Speaker 2: trust him in two different ways. You can hind in
Speaker 2: the ball in game three of a series if he's great,
Speaker 2: or in the seventh inning of a series if he's great.
Speaker 2: So it's certainly a package too. Light mine is if
Speaker 2: he looks like him. We have no idea if he's
Speaker 2: going to look like him.
Speaker 4: Rehabs start today, by the way, okay today in triple
Speaker 4: A for Clay Holmes, so good sway me on this, well,
Speaker 4: we could retroactively, we can change it, just like they
Speaker 4: need to give Armando gal Raga's perfect game.
Speaker 1: We can change later and reassign the winner.
Speaker 3: I like, just like that, just like that, But as
Speaker 3: of now it is five for me, so Hembo. We
Speaker 3: end with Mickey Moniac and Mickey Moniac interesting profile because
Speaker 3: you look at the numbers at home, he's got an
Speaker 3: OPS over one thousand. On the road ops under seven hundred,
Speaker 3: but he does supply a lot of power. He's got
Speaker 3: a year and a half of control. This is one
Speaker 3: which could swing either way. How do you value Mickey Moniac?
Speaker 3: Mock trade goes to you.
Speaker 2: It's a fairly palatable contract too, especially if you like
Speaker 2: the player even a little bit. Only eight million dollars
Speaker 2: through next year. There's one team that I have circle
Speaker 2: that needs an outfielder desperately and has for years, and
Speaker 2: it's the Houston Astros, who, let's be honest, they can't
Speaker 2: afford any of the high powered arms that they really
Speaker 2: need at this deadline because their system has been so
Speaker 2: gutted over the last few years. I think the very
Speaker 2: best that they can do is a package that rhymes
Speaker 2: with this, like a middle of the back end of
Speaker 2: the lineup type guy who can play in the outfield
Speaker 2: a couple positions and fake it. At least, it's a
Speaker 2: fairly hitter friendly ballpark down there, so you're not expecting
Speaker 2: him to fall off a cliff like you would if
Speaker 2: he traded him to, say Seattle. The prospect that I
Speaker 2: wrote down Arham is Ethan Pecko, twenty three year old
Speaker 2: right handed pitcher in Houston who's look one of their
Speaker 2: best guys. But they don't have that much to choose from,
Speaker 2: so I think they swing and miss when it comes
Speaker 2: to the starters on the market because they just can't
Speaker 2: afford them. Then I say they pivot to Mickey Moniac,
Speaker 2: who immediately becomes someone who improves their outfield considerably.
Speaker 3: I like to fit with Houston. I also like to
Speaker 3: fit with Cleveland. I've talked about how they need more power,
Speaker 3: you know, p d Halpin and center, Daniel Schneman and Wright.
Speaker 3: Even Stephen Kwan is not having a good offensive season.
Speaker 3: I think they need an influx in power and you're
Speaker 3: kind of hoping that it can translate from cors Field
Speaker 3: over to Cleveland. Kind of reminds me of when they
Speaker 3: dealt for Lane Thomas. Like that type of move where
Speaker 3: does come with a little bit of control. They feel
Speaker 3: like he's a little bit of an underrated bat. Here's
Speaker 3: the package, and again arm tear this one up if
Speaker 3: you want. Wellbin francisca twenty year old been up to
Speaker 3: high A seven eighty seven ops, good hit tool, good runner,
Speaker 3: Watson power and Daniel Spino, the twenty five year old
Speaker 3: loads of potential, has just dealt with a ton of injuries.
Speaker 3: It's kind of a home run swing of a prospect,
Speaker 3: and I think Vickey Moniac is kind of a home
Speaker 3: run swing, both literally and figuratively. What do you think
Speaker 3: about this package?
Speaker 4: That one's interesting. I think Francisco is a good BiLaw
Speaker 4: opportunity as a prospect. Guy that was a borderline top
Speaker 4: one hundred guy for US and then just really hit
Speaker 4: a wall, dealt with injuries last year, has been better
Speaker 4: this year. Espino a hard thrower at altitude. You know
Speaker 4: they just traded Halverson the guy back in make sense
Speaker 4: is it?
Speaker 1: Was it just Peco Hembo.
Speaker 2: For one, A straight up swap.
Speaker 1: You're not throwing low perfdo in that or something.
Speaker 2: I mean what I wanted to do here was not
Speaker 2: get too cute and basically provide you the foundational piece
Speaker 2: could it be a two for one. Should it be
Speaker 2: a two for one? Probably, But there are any number
Speaker 2: of ancillary pieces for a lot of these. What I
Speaker 2: wanted to do was just find sort of like an
Speaker 2: anchor prospect for each of these trades. In this case,
Speaker 2: that's I think the best that they can do.
Speaker 4: So Peco came back from a little bit of an
Speaker 4: injury and has been really I think solid this year.
Speaker 4: By by the numbers, I like the Astros fit more.
Speaker 4: I think they're just more likely to do this. But
Speaker 4: you're giving me the baseline prospect, are we assuming low
Speaker 4: Braffido is in here or not sure?
Speaker 2: I mean that's I'm fine with that. I mean I
Speaker 2: didn't send it over, but yeah, I mean this is
Speaker 2: gonna be a two for one and a lot of these,
Speaker 2: like a lot of these deals that I put forth
Speaker 2: were just sort of the anchor prospect, and there's gonna
Speaker 2: be ancillary stuff. There's gonna be paydowns, like for example,
Speaker 2: if if Cleveland wanted Mickey Mo, they'd be like haggling
Speaker 2: over tens of thousands of dollars, you know, in his
Speaker 2: contract last year because that's how they roll. But ultimately,
Speaker 2: I think Peco will call it Loperfido or something that
Speaker 2: rhymes with that going back, which is probably going to
Speaker 2: happen and would inevitably, but ultimately he was the anchor
Speaker 2: prospect that.
Speaker 1: I landed on well and quickly.
Speaker 4: The Astros made like a small little deal to clear
Speaker 4: up a little bit of room. Right, they trade mccullors
Speaker 4: to clear up about a million and a half two
Speaker 4: million dollars so that they can add a player that
Speaker 4: will cost about four million dollars at this deadline and
Speaker 4: stay under the CBT. That would be Mickey Montiac, plus
Speaker 4: they would plug him in for next year. I like
Speaker 4: the team fit with the Astros, so I'll go Dana
Speaker 4: Brown desperation move.
Speaker 3: Five to five and even But I'm honestly I'm going
Speaker 3: to give you the win, Hembo, because going back, two
Speaker 3: of my wins are because I was stupid and boring.
Speaker 3: You never got any of those comments. So I think
Speaker 3: Hembo wins, even though it's a tie. Tie goes to
Speaker 3: the guy who's not stupid and boring.
Speaker 2: Look, I just watched soccer for the last two months.
Speaker 2: I went from like the soccer of two c's to
Speaker 2: man this Canaan infielder lose midfielder lose this says depth
Speaker 2: so badly in the span of like two months. So look,
Speaker 2: I'm fine with the draw. I feel good about our
Speaker 2: packages more than anything else. I felt like nothing that
Speaker 2: we put forth was outrageous like the Median Internet Trade package,
Speaker 2: and thus I feel the exercise was very much worthwhile.
Speaker 3: Real quick arm as we say goodbye, we your favorite
Speaker 3: package of the whole thing.
Speaker 4: What's funny is I think your your value proposition on
Speaker 4: the Yankees package with with Mason Miller was as sound
Speaker 4: as possible. And that's the one I might loose sleepover
Speaker 4: and be like I should have went, should have.
Speaker 1: Went with Peter on that one.
Speaker 4: I just can't fathom the Yankees doing it, and that's
Speaker 4: what really skewed me. But I also loved just the
Speaker 4: both Mason Miller packages, I would say, because the amount
Speaker 4: of talent that just went to them on the Brewers
Speaker 4: deal too was like holy crap. But it's also not
Speaker 4: their top guys, Like it was such a fun conversation there.
Speaker 1: I would just go with both Mason Miller packages.
Speaker 4: And that's why I really hope he does get traded,
Speaker 4: because yeah, it's gonna be so fun talking about what
Speaker 4: those pat what that package might be Embo.
Speaker 3: Those were our mock trades. Thank you so much for
Speaker 3: all the time, and you even gave us additional The
Speaker 3: time just flies by when we're talking. I know that
Speaker 3: we had two more players that we had to cut
Speaker 3: before the episode. We could go for hours and hours
Speaker 3: and hours. Such a good friend to us. Thank you
Speaker 3: so much again for coming on plug anything. What are
Speaker 3: you working on? You're always working on stuff.
Speaker 2: Always working on something plenty more to the coming weeks.
Speaker 2: But I don't recall having any more fun than I've
Speaker 2: just had with you guys. It's awfully fun to do it.
Speaker 2: We actually get to now see like the trades. You
Speaker 2: guys can you know, blast them out on social however,
Speaker 2: to see what people thought of it. But I think
Speaker 2: what I would finish by saying is that was the
Speaker 2: kind of exercise that gms themselves are doing. It's not
Speaker 2: any different than the stuff that you and I have
Speaker 2: done over the last few days. I've been around enough
Speaker 2: front office types we'll call them, to know that they're
Speaker 2: actually not, you know, rocket surgeons. They're not all that sophisticated, right,
Speaker 2: and so a lot of the math and calculus that
Speaker 2: you and I were doing here over the last few
Speaker 2: days to present these packages the exact same exercise that
Speaker 2: GM's are doing. That's what makes this stuff so fun.
Speaker 2: I very much enjoyed doing it in arm I think
Speaker 2: you did an awfully good job at arbitrating the process.
Speaker 1: Thank you.
Speaker 3: I'm taking that compliment. I don't even know if you
Speaker 3: mentioned that. I'm kind of like a GM. That's how
Speaker 3: I'm gonna do absolutely at thirty first team in Salt
Speaker 3: Lake City.
Speaker 2: You're gonna be running those guys.
Speaker 3: We'll take that out. We'll take over Salt Lake City soon.
Speaker 3: Thank you everybody who joined the Just Baseball Show. Best
Speaker 3: way to support the show smash the like button and
Speaker 3: subscribe button. Whatever you listen into your podcast, leaving a
Speaker 3: five star review is the best way to support. If
Speaker 3: you want to join our discord, Hembo's in there and
Speaker 3: we could talk all the trades that you could ever want.
Speaker 3: Special shout out to Podcast B for brilliant producing. Once again,
Speaker 3: a special thank you to Hembo for coming on from
Speaker 3: arm Laighton. I'm Peter Roffle. See you tomorrow, same time,
Speaker 3: same place, one thirty pm Eastern. With that, thank you
Speaker 3: every much.