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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing in so spec I'm sitting it to cash touch.

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Speaker 1: We'll see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 2: If you want to pass.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 2: Evan Abrams, and I am joined as always recap episode,

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Speaker 2: best best episode. Of course, it's Brandon Anderson. We are

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Speaker 2: here for week sixteen in the Action. Time to go

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Speaker 2: back and forth him and I between some topics, some

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Speaker 2: trends going on in the league right now, and a

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Speaker 2: few of these have some Christmas twists to them. Marry

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Speaker 2: this season. But Brandon, what's up before we move on?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, it's it's near Christmas season. I had

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Speaker 1: an early Christmas last evening. I've got another Christmas tonight.

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Speaker 1: We got Christmas games. We get games on like Tuesdays

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Speaker 1: and Wednesdays and Saturdays and Fridays and coming up all

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Speaker 1: over the place. It's festive season. I got this. I

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Speaker 1: got the Grinch shirt on today. Hopefully no Grinch on

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Speaker 1: our picks today, but excited to get towards the holidays.

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Speaker 1: Not quite yet, I know, but we got some Christmas

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Speaker 1: questions here. We'll get to a Christmas look Ahead special

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Speaker 1: at the end, added to the usual look ahead.

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Speaker 3: So I'm ready to have a.

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Speaker 1: Little fun and hopefully get back on the horse with

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Speaker 1: some of these pecks too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we're gonna knowli. So this is I mean, we've

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Speaker 2: got a lot of stuff in this pod. We're a

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Speaker 2: lot of bets, a lot of different conversations. So let's

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Speaker 2: get to it. So with the Christmas theme, what Christmas

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Speaker 2: gift would you buy for? Really? Any Super Bowl contender?

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Speaker 2: You know, what is the thing you think they need

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Speaker 2: this holiday season? Brandon, I'll let you go first. I

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Speaker 2: think we were kind of on the same patre since

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Speaker 2: you wrote about it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I have to go with the low

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Speaker 1: hanging fruit here, the low hanging stockings. Perhaps I suppose

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Speaker 1: to stick with the theme. You just got to get

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Speaker 1: the lion some health like this stinks man. The team

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Speaker 1: has been so fun this season. Action app now has

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Speaker 1: the thing out where you can check and see kind

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Speaker 1: of your recap from the year. What did you win,

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Speaker 1: how'd you do My best team on the season in

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Speaker 1: any sport is the Lions. We've been having fun backing

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Speaker 1: the Lions this year, and now everybody is getting hurt. Man,

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Speaker 1: it stinks. Alia McNeil so good at detackle. Their cornerback

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Speaker 1: is just getting thinner and thinner. They're down to just

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Speaker 1: like three guys left. Really, they're also now one more

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Speaker 1: injury away from disaster at this point, like they're now

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Speaker 1: to a spot where the next name aman Ra rolls

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Speaker 1: the ankle, or one of those star safeties or someone's like, okay,

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Speaker 1: we're cooked. Now there's nothing left. So I got a

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Speaker 1: whole article up talking about just how much those injuries

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Speaker 1: have added up. Obviously David Montgomery at running back as well,

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Speaker 1: they still got Gibbs. That still makes a difference to me,

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Speaker 1: because you the thunder lightning, you lose what's keeping one

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Speaker 1: of them fresh to get the other one have the

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Speaker 1: fresh legs. I think that will wear down. I just

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Speaker 1: want to see the Lions actually be a Super Bowl contender.

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Speaker 1: I'm afraid that they may not be anymore.

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Speaker 3: I feel like.

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Speaker 1: They are a lot closer to the rest of the

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Speaker 1: NFC now, and that's kind of what my article concluded.

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Speaker 1: The injuries this week, the three big ones Carlton, Davis

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Speaker 1: at corner, McNeil, and Montgomery. Those three injuries, for me,

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Speaker 1: drop the Lions just under a field goal in power rating,

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Speaker 1: Like that's like losing your quarterback. For most teams, that

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Speaker 1: is a huge deal. The Lions like a field goal

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Speaker 1: in any game. That's a pretty big difference. Linees are

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Speaker 1: gonna have to win shootouts now, So check the article out.

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Speaker 1: I talk about like how to fade the Lions investing

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Speaker 1: in other futures. I've got one of those coming up.

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Speaker 1: But as a fan and as a better I just

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Speaker 1: wish the Lions could be healthy so we could see

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Speaker 1: this team have their real chance here.

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Speaker 3: They're not dead.

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Speaker 1: Yet, They're just much closer to the rest of the pack. Now,

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Speaker 1: what Christmas gift would you give out?

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Speaker 2: Well, just on the lines, I think as better as

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Speaker 2: we look for compound injuries, right, Like, usually one injury

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Speaker 2: doesn't do the job. It's the injury and then the

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Speaker 2: injury to the backup, and then you know both of

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Speaker 2: them going ir So I think what the Lions are

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Speaker 2: experiencing is just compound injuries. Like if it was just Montgomery,

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Speaker 2: I think we could be having a different story, but

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Speaker 2: it's definitely not that case. Mine was pretty simple. I mean,

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Speaker 2: obviously it was Detroit, but it was also Houston's offense.

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Speaker 2: I kind of want to get them some like rhythm

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Speaker 2: or dancing lessons, maybe something to get them back on

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Speaker 2: the same page. So since week ten, they're twenty six

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Speaker 2: in EPA per play on offense thirty second last and

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Speaker 2: success rate and they are actually bottom eight on offense

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Speaker 2: and drop back and rush EPA and success rate since

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Speaker 2: week ten. So it just feels like a completely different

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Speaker 2: team that their defense seems to be on the same

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Speaker 2: page lately, but their offense isn't there. And they're gonna

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Speaker 2: get in the playoffs, so you're gonna see them, and

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Speaker 2: they're gonna be mostly at home at least to start,

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Speaker 2: So we'll see what happens there with Houston. All right,

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Speaker 2: next category, what would you give to these bottom feeders?

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Speaker 2: So I'll let you go first. Basically, any team in

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Speaker 2: the NFL kind of at the bottom right now, three

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Speaker 2: games to go, But what do you think they need

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Speaker 2: the most?

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Speaker 1: So maybe not quite a bottom feeder here. We got

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Speaker 1: some true true.

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Speaker 3: Bottom feeders this year.

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Speaker 1: Like some of the choices they are obvious of just like, Okay, well,

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Speaker 1: let this team keep losing out so they get the

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Speaker 1: high draft pick, all that sort of thing. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: give something to the Cowboys. I'm gonna give them the

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Speaker 1: gift of firing Mike McCarthy. It is time move on.

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Speaker 1: Why didn't you do it last year? It was time

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Speaker 1: to start. Like I give you a time machine to

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Speaker 1: go back and try this again and get a real

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Speaker 1: new coaching staff. In fact, I'm not just gonna give

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Speaker 1: you the gift of not McCarthy. I'm gonna give you

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Speaker 1: the gift of Ben Johnson. I don't know if Ben Johnson.

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Speaker 3: Would actually go he wants gonna.

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Speaker 1: I don't know he's gonna go to Jerry Jones. Maybe

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Speaker 1: I need to give them like Jerry Jones gift, if

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Speaker 1: you know what I mean.

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Speaker 3: But we'll leave that one out.

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Speaker 1: I just want to give the Cowboys some real coaching staff.

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Speaker 1: There's it's clear the talent is there, and that's why

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Speaker 1: they're not really a bottom feeder. At back them last week,

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Speaker 1: I'll be backing them again this week. We'll get to

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Speaker 1: that one. The talent is so good on this roster still,

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Speaker 1: they should be in the mix of things, and I

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Speaker 1: think the coaching I don't think is disastrous, but it's

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Speaker 1: certainly not helping them. The Bengals come to mind as

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Speaker 1: another team where I'd probably give them the gift of

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Speaker 1: a fresh start as well go get a different coach.

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Speaker 1: I don't know that the Zach Taylor thing is working anymore.

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Speaker 1: I'm a little worried that teams like the Cowboys and

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Speaker 1: Bengals are not bottom feeders and are just enough not

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Speaker 1: to run it back one more time and get the

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Speaker 1: retread coach situation. I sort of feel like that's what

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Speaker 1: we did with McCarthy already. I'm giving Dallas the gift

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Speaker 1: of not doing it again.

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Speaker 2: I think you're probably right with Dallas. I took a

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Speaker 2: different angle here. I kind of want to get the

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Speaker 2: Jets a new defensive coordinator and I just gave them

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Speaker 2: back Robert Sala since they honestly, since he's left, their

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Speaker 2: defense has been literally terrible. I mean, they've allowed twenty

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Speaker 2: three post points eight of nine games. That's kind of

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Speaker 2: just hard to do, especially with some struggling offenses on

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Speaker 2: the other side. And the other one is to get

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Speaker 2: some bodyguards in New England they're blocking. Is just absolutely ridiculous.

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Speaker 2: They're actually last in PFF grading in past block and

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Speaker 2: run block and honestly, Drake May doesn't have a ton

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Speaker 2: of pressures, so they really just need to get some

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Speaker 2: help there, all right, next topic up here, which team

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Speaker 2: slash coach is getting coal in their stocking? You came

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Speaker 2: up with this when I laugh when I read it.

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Speaker 2: You can go first, and then I have really only

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Speaker 2: one coach. I think that deserves it.

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Speaker 1: So I'm getting a little creative here. And also I'm

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Speaker 1: sort of calling my shot on this one. And I'll

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Speaker 1: be honest, I think this is just in the interest

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Speaker 1: of wanting some drama down the stretch here. This might

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Speaker 1: look done by the time you listen to this, because

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Speaker 1: we're recording Thursday after and we put this out over

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Speaker 1: Friday night. The Broncos play the Chargers tonight. You'll love

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Speaker 1: seeing that game by the time this comes up. Who's

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Speaker 1: getting coal and their stocking? The Los Angeles Chargers are

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Speaker 1: gonna charger again and miss the playoffs entirely. That's who

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Speaker 1: I'm giving cold too. I think they lose tonight. Am

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Speaker 1: I bitter that the defense gave up a billion points

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Speaker 1: last week after I finally believe in them. Yes I am.

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Speaker 1: I am bitter about it. The team has really regressed.

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Speaker 1: They are not being able to run the ball all

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Speaker 1: without JK. Dobbins and the offense has created a little

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Speaker 1: bit without him. Defense is not what it was. I

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Speaker 1: think Denver is the better team right now and gets

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Speaker 1: the win. We'll see if that happen. And the Chargers

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Speaker 1: still have a soft schedule, but the Chargers still the

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Speaker 1: Chargers too, and we know about Justin Herbert with the lead.

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Speaker 1: I just feel like this team could blow a Thursday game,

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Speaker 1: blow one more game. They already did it last week,

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Speaker 1: and maybe maybe for Christmas, we the fans, get a

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Speaker 1: little playoff drama here and the field is not totally set.

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Speaker 1: Could we get the Bengals making one last push. Could

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Speaker 1: we get the Colts? Could they pull things together? It

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Speaker 1: just the Dolphins, one of those teams give us some drama.

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Speaker 1: So give some coal to the Chargers.

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Speaker 2: I mean, if you're rooting Thursday football, I mean everyone's

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Speaker 2: got to be rooting for Denver at least to make

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Speaker 2: that race exciting and to have some drama late. My

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Speaker 2: one was pretty easy. I always want to give the

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Speaker 2: award to Zach Taylor since I think he's kind of

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Speaker 2: holding them back in many ways. But that was too easy,

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Speaker 2: So I'm going to just roll off a few stats

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Speaker 2: and then we can kind of guess which coach this is.

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Speaker 2: So their last and third down percentage on offense, they

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Speaker 2: have the lowest percentage of drives ending in an offensive score.

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Speaker 2: Their team is eighth, and penalties their last in their division,

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Speaker 2: and they're thirtieth in points per game.

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Speaker 3: Huh my first in the division kind of you know,

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Speaker 3: gives you a few Yeah.

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Speaker 1: That narrated it down. My first instant was Antonio Piers

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Speaker 1: for the raid.

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Speaker 2: Okay, got it. Honestly, it's Stefanski, which is actually pretty interesting.

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Speaker 2: So it's good that you would have It's good that

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Speaker 2: you would have mentioned Antonio Piers. Now, obviously a lot

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Speaker 2: goes into the Deshaun Watson start to the year, but

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Speaker 2: even with jamis a lot of this stuff, you know,

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Speaker 2: has looked good in moments. It's also worth noting first

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Speaker 2: in EPA per play last year on defense, they're seventeenth

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Speaker 2: this year, So I think a lot has changed on

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Speaker 2: both sides of the ball there. But that's my answer. Okay,

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Speaker 2: let's keep rolling here. Now this one, we're just simply

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Speaker 2: giving out some bets. So jingle bills will be the

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Speaker 2: way I will coin this because I think maybe you'll

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Speaker 2: be somebody might pick Buffalo, maybe not, but super Bowl finalists.

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Speaker 2: What would be a bet to look into, a bet

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Speaker 2: to invest in? That's funny. I think we might be

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Speaker 2: on the same wavelength there, but I'm gonna let you start. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I like to call this bet the Matt Moore Special.

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Speaker 1: Matt was on hosting last week. Matt loves to bet

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Speaker 1: these exact finishes with the exact two teams. That's not

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Speaker 1: really my style, but it does give you some out

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Speaker 1: if you get a few different options here. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: go with two teams that I've written about in the

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Speaker 1: last two weeks that I wrote about how do we

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Speaker 1: fade the Chiefs? And I wrote about how do we

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Speaker 1: fade the Lions. My answer to how we faded the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs is, I think investing in the Baltimore Ravens with

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Speaker 1: their odds as good as they're looking right now, even

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Speaker 1: though they are impossible wild card spot. We'll see how

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Speaker 1: that looks, so you know, about a week from them

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Speaker 1: that could really flip. And then in the Lions. I

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Speaker 1: think the fading them. A good way to do it

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Speaker 1: is to invest in the Packers. Now, I said, Packers

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Speaker 1: plus seven hundred to win the NFC, their odds are

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Speaker 1: fourteen to one, or at least they were then to

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Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. They wouldn't be fifty fifty and

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl. They're gonna be an underdogy to make the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl. So I'd rather just have the NFC on

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Speaker 1: Green Bay. You can read the case on both of

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Speaker 1: those there. I'll go Packers Ravens. You've got that thirty

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Speaker 1: three to one. I'll take it a step further though,

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Speaker 1: I don't have the number on it. But if you're

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Speaker 1: gonna bet this Packers Ravens exacta let's really be exact.

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Speaker 1: Give me a Ravens over Packers at the better odds.

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Speaker 1: You can bet that at some books too, So find

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Speaker 1: the number for that. That's my exact pick.

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Speaker 3: Finish.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was looking similar to the Packers because I

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Speaker 2: thought they probably offered the most value. So I thought

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Speaker 2: Packers Steelers in being a rematch. Obviously we've seen that

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Speaker 2: one before. It was at eighty to one, so I

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Speaker 2: think looking a little bit down the line, obviously Pittsburgh's

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Speaker 2: in prime position and green Bay would probably have to

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Speaker 2: come out of the wild card spots. And the other one,

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Speaker 2: which was a little more chalky, because I think we

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Speaker 2: were both looking to fade Detroit and Kansas City, was

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Speaker 2: Philly Pittsburgh, which is thirty seven to one if you like.

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Speaker 2: I was also looking at Ravens Packers. So if you

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Speaker 2: don't like Pittsburgh and think it should possibly be the

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Speaker 2: Ravens in that spot, Ravens Packers is thirty three to one.

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Speaker 2: But I think Philly Pittsburgh and Green Bay Pittsburgh were interesting.

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Speaker 2: Just I trust Pittsburgh's defense when it comes to playoff time.

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Speaker 2: I trust Tomlin in that situation over almost anyone else.

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Speaker 2: And now you've got a hopefully Pickens is ready to roll.

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Speaker 2: But I think you have a quarterback in there that

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Speaker 2: isn't necessarily what they've had before, which is someone that's

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Speaker 2: going to give the other team the ball. I think

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Speaker 2: he's poised, and honestly, he's looked much better than I

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Speaker 2: thought he would coming over from Denver. So I just

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Speaker 2: like the safe system they're kind of running there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like to of the Philly Pittsburgh. I obviously

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Speaker 1: just saw that game last week. I would definitely like

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Speaker 1: Philadelphia and that when I picked them last week and

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Speaker 1: they look pretty good. I like the idea of betting

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Speaker 1: the narrative on this one too, that you get the

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Speaker 1: Pennsylvania super Bowl our old college Anthony dubunde O where

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Speaker 1: at the Ringer has been talking about, Pennsylvania is like

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Speaker 1: the center of the universe right now. Everything is happening

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Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, So why not the super Bowl be a

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Speaker 1: couple Pennsylvania teams as well? Maybe they put in harrispur

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Speaker 1: for the Super Bowl or something like that. So I

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Speaker 1: like the bet the narrative angle. The other thing too

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Speaker 1: that I think we're kind of both getting at. I

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Speaker 1: just want to say more directly, I really feel like,

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Speaker 1: and I know you've got the trends. We know the

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Speaker 1: stat about like teams plus twelve hundred or better at

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Speaker 1: the start of the year win the Super Bowl. It's

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Speaker 1: one of those like five favorites. And if it's not

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Speaker 1: the Lions or the Chiefs, and it's not the forty

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Speaker 1: nine ers, they're out. That might only leave two other options,

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Speaker 1: which I believe is the Bills and the Ravens from

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Speaker 1: the start of the year. So maybe it's just that

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Speaker 1: I can't shake the feeling that we're gonna get at

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Speaker 1: least one true underdog run to the Super Bowl. It

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Speaker 1: just seems like these top teams are not quite elite,

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Speaker 1: separating from the pack. In the NFC, I think it's

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Speaker 1: the Eagles now, but we know how they're kind of

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Speaker 1: flawed with Jalen Hurts, so we'll see if they get

305
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Speaker 1: the wrong matchup at the wrong time. And in the AFC,

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Speaker 1: it's a little more protection because you got Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Steelers,

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Speaker 1: maybe all at the top. We've got some tough underdog

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Speaker 1: runs there too, the Chargers if they get in, the

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Speaker 1: Ravens if they're a five or six seed.

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Speaker 3: So it just.

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Speaker 1: Seems to me, like I noticed when I look at

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Speaker 1: futures every week, I keep looking for the right spot

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Speaker 1: and the right team to jump in and say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: this is my spot. And I don't know if it's

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Speaker 1: the Packers just yet. I don't know if they're a

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl winner. Maybe they are, but I'm wanting that team.

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Speaker 1: A few years ago, I had the Niners a couple

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Speaker 1: weeks before the end of the season where they weren't

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Speaker 1: even quite a playoff team yet had to win their

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Speaker 1: way in. That meant that the juice, the odds were juiced.

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Speaker 1: I want that spot. I want that team. Maybe that's

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Speaker 1: the AFC thing, maybe like whatever it is, Bengals or Dolphins.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if I can get there, but one

324
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Speaker 1: of those teams winning their way in and like Burrow

325
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Speaker 1: and Chase just going on a crazy run. I don't

326
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Speaker 1: know who it is, but I just can't shake the

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Speaker 1: feeling that there's going to be some underdog team. So

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Speaker 1: I say that so that you listening at home, if

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Speaker 1: you have that team, if you have a sleeper, I

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Speaker 1: think the path is there, and either conference, I especially

331
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Speaker 1: would love an NFC sleeper, but I think this is

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Speaker 1: a good year to invest in that sleeper run in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: We've also talked about home field advantage a lot on

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Speaker 2: a lot of these podcasts, and I firmly believe that

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Speaker 2: a road team can make a run and it's not

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Speaker 2: as difficult as we make it out to be. So

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Speaker 2: I'm completely with you there, all right, final category before

339
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Speaker 2: we going into your bets. This is just the award

340
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Speaker 2: or division favorite right now, the chalk that you think

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Speaker 2: won't win. So I have one category I thought was interesting,

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Speaker 2: what's yours.

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Speaker 1: I still don't think Offensive Player of the Year is

344
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Speaker 1: locked up for Sakuon Barkley.

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Speaker 3: I know that this is one we've talked about.

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Speaker 1: Maybe this is betting with my heart because I've got

347
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Speaker 1: Chase and I've got Henry, and I think those are

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Speaker 1: the two other positions now. The way things are going,

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't be shocked to see Josh Allen or Lamar

350
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Speaker 1: Jackson make a push the way that their numbers are

351
00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:15,360
Speaker 1: piling up as well. Saque had his worst game in

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Speaker 1: a couple of months last week, and there are little

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Speaker 1: rumblings that he's not totally healthy right now, and I'm

354
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Speaker 1: not sure he's going to have a big, big closing

355
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Speaker 1: stretch out here, especially if Eagles don't really need to

356
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Speaker 1: push very hard toward the finish line either. So Chase

357
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Speaker 1: has had monster games in a monster season. He's going

358
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Speaker 1: to be the receiving triple crown. Derrick Henry's been awfully

359
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Speaker 1: quiet for like three games, but usually does super well

360
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Speaker 1: December January. I'm just not convinced Opoi is quite quite

361
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Speaker 1: finished up.

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Speaker 2: You sat interesting because I was going to use that

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Speaker 2: as a teas in a few seconds. My feeling there

364
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Speaker 2: is Lamar might finish really, really well. Josh is obviously

365
00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:56,960
Speaker 2: the MVP. I kind of shocked to see him at

366
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Speaker 2: forty two to one to win Offensive Player of the Year.

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Speaker 2: If his numbers turn out to be fantastic, Baltimore gets

368
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Speaker 2: into the playoffs, but Josh is obviously that side. It's

369
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Speaker 2: just interesting that he's that far back in an award

370
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Speaker 2: that kind of ends up mirroring that award. But that's

371
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Speaker 2: probably a discussion for another day. My answer here was

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Speaker 2: Coach of the Year. O'Connell's like minus one ninety right now,

373
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Speaker 2: Minnesota still has h oh I just had this right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with Bay and Detroit. I know that one.

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Speaker 2: There you go, so to me, there's chance for Falter,

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Speaker 2: and you've got Detroit with Campbell. If they somehow won

377
00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,320
Speaker 2: a few games with all these injuries, you still have

378
00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:36,560
Speaker 2: shown Peyton. If they win this game to night on

379
00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:40,040
Speaker 2: the road and they end up eleven twelve wins, UH

380
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:42,800
Speaker 2: and Washington and Pittsburgh. I don't necessarily think Quinn could

381
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Speaker 2: win it. But if Pittsburgh all of a sudden turnaround

382
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Speaker 2: and we expected them to, you know, not do this,

383
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Speaker 2: you know, I think it's always interesting to give it

384
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Speaker 2: to an old hat who potentially hasn't won it, maybe

385
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Speaker 2: a ton and you know, kind of exceeds expectations.

386
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I would have my eye on Sean Payton out

387
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Speaker 1: of that group. We love to give it to first

388
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Speaker 1: and second year coaches on a new team, so he

389
00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:06,640
Speaker 1: fits that criteria. We love offensive mined coaches, and he's

390
00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,959
Speaker 1: gonna kind of have some marquee victory possibilities here, Like

391
00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:12,320
Speaker 1: every game is tough coming up. That means he could

392
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Speaker 1: lose and.

393
00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:13,240
Speaker 3: Fall out of it.

394
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Speaker 1: But that also means, like we just saw Denver get

395
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Speaker 1: a big win, We're gonna everyone's gonna watch them on

396
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Speaker 1: Thursday night by the time that you've seen this or

397
00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:23,560
Speaker 1: heard this podcast, and then there's still a couple more

398
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,160
Speaker 1: left after that, Denver gets to earn.

399
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Speaker 3: Their way in. They're not going to win the division.

400
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Speaker 1: But if the Vikings don't either, then I think that

401
00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:33,480
Speaker 1: that kind of takes that bolt away from O'Connell. And

402
00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 1: you know, the Broncos. The Vikings were maybe a five

403
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:38,600
Speaker 1: hundred steme. The Broncos were supposed to be terrible. Like

404
00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:41,159
Speaker 1: if you look at the expectations and the way that

405
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:44,000
Speaker 1: they've beat out their win loss record from last year

406
00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:47,680
Speaker 1: and their expectations. Peyton fits the profile of my kind

407
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,080
Speaker 1: of preseason and coach of the year much better I

408
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Speaker 1: think than O'Connell and some of the other options.

409
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it probably starts with Sean Payton and

410
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Speaker 2: Sean Payton and the Broncos winning at plus one twenty

411
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Speaker 2: to nine. So maybe that's the bet to start with.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's go into your best bets.

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Speaker 3: This is your best bets.

414
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Speaker 2: We're gonna roll through these. So Rams Jets is your

415
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Speaker 2: first one. The only note I had here is it

416
00:19:14,920 --> 00:19:18,399
Speaker 2: looks to be about twenty seven degrees at kickoff. Total starts,

417
00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:22,080
Speaker 2: total starts blow thirty degrees. Aaron Rodgers thirty four, Matt

418
00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,600
Speaker 2: Stafford four. But take what you want from that.

419
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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Rams here. I'm coming off firing.

420
00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:29,400
Speaker 1: I love the Rams in this game. So I'm gonna

421
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Speaker 1: take Rams minus three and we'll go a little escalator

422
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Speaker 1: here that I'll get into. So I bet the Jets

423
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:37,800
Speaker 1: last week. We cashed the Jets last week against Jacksonville.

424
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Speaker 1: We're lucky to have cash. That we talked about that

425
00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:43,600
Speaker 1: Sunday night. There's no way Jets should have cash they

426
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:47,280
Speaker 1: come from behind, and they were so bad defensively in

427
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Speaker 1: that game against Jacksonville, against Mac Jones, who couldn't do

428
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Speaker 1: anything for an entire month.

429
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Speaker 3: Jets Stevens was.

430
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Speaker 1: So bad that by dv Away they dropped season long

431
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Speaker 1: fourteen weeks into the year. They dropped from nineteenth to

432
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 1: in season long defense in one awful game. That's how

433
00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:07,479
Speaker 1: bad it was. I don't really feel like they were

434
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:10,879
Speaker 1: looking that good. Aaron Rodgers stats look pretty good, but

435
00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,159
Speaker 1: he did not pass the eye test, mostly just bombing

436
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 1: it to Devon Dadams against the worst defense in the league.

437
00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:17,879
Speaker 1: The Rams are not the worst defense in the league anymore.

438
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:19,480
Speaker 1: I said they were going to be before the start

439
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:20,000
Speaker 1: of the season.

440
00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:21,119
Speaker 2: I was wrong.

441
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:24,399
Speaker 1: This pass rush, I think is going to say Aaron

442
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,360
Speaker 1: Rodgers into an early retirement. And that's the escalat I'm

443
00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:30,600
Speaker 1: going for here. Jared vers Braydon the fest Byron. I

444
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:34,560
Speaker 1: think these guys are gonna be common after Aaron Rodgers

445
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,960
Speaker 1: on that bad offensive line did not live up to billing.

446
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,239
Speaker 1: Tyron Smith was not good. He's out now we got

447
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:44,359
Speaker 1: a rookie left tackle. The Jets last week scored thirty

448
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,000
Speaker 1: two on Jacksonville, which they needed a late push to

449
00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:49,720
Speaker 1: get there. Outside of that game, that was their season high.

450
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:52,920
Speaker 1: They're averaging nineteen points a game for the season. So

451
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 1: that's the offense. I think the Jets defense has been

452
00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,800
Speaker 1: even more disappointing last six games. They're twenty ninth through

453
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:02,440
Speaker 1: twenty eighth overall in the season. Now, last six games,

454
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:04,720
Speaker 1: they are dead last in the NFL against the pass.

455
00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:08,600
Speaker 1: This feared secondary has just gone completely terrible.

456
00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:09,200
Speaker 2: They give up.

457
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 1: Twenty five points to Mac Jones. That was a month

458
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:16,000
Speaker 1: of Jacksonville points in one game. We know the Rams

459
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,120
Speaker 1: offense is good, and I think we kind of forgot

460
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:20,760
Speaker 1: because the last time we saw them, we tried to

461
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 1: not see them. It was that ugly twelve six Thursday

462
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 1: night game with no touchdowns that like ruined everyone's fantasy

463
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 1: football playoffs. Game before that was forty four in Buffalo.

464
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,240
Speaker 1: This is the top five offense with these receivers healthy,

465
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 1: Stafford kills sub five hundred teams. The Jets are firmly

466
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,320
Speaker 1: a sub five hundred team at this point. You mentioned

467
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 1: Jets stats earlier. They've allowed twenty six points or more

468
00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:45,679
Speaker 1: five games in a row. Right now, That defense is

469
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,240
Speaker 1: not what it once was. Teams have allowed at least

470
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:51,600
Speaker 1: twenty four or more five in a row since twenty

471
00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 1: eighteen nineteen, and thirty three against the spread thirty seven percent.

472
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 1: So I love the Rams here Rams minus three. I

473
00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 1: don't gonna say Aaron to early Christmas retirement. So the

474
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 1: Rams have eight wins this year, five of them over

475
00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:08,120
Speaker 1: half have been by six points. So I'm gonna start

476
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,600
Speaker 1: the escalator at minus five and a half plus one

477
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:14,080
Speaker 1: forty five. That's the main first escalator. The Jets of

478
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 1: on only four games all year. They beat the Titans,

479
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:20,720
Speaker 1: the Patriots, the Jaguars, who cares these teams are terrible?

480
00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,120
Speaker 1: They beat the Texans, who we know are not really

481
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 1: that good. Three of those four wins are by one score.

482
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,440
Speaker 1: All that's really loft for the Jets is to get

483
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:33,560
Speaker 1: that one truly bottom falling out game. And I'm betting

484
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:35,720
Speaker 1: that this is the game. They've got lost by twenty two.

485
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 1: They got lost by twenty five. So the rest of

486
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:42,399
Speaker 1: the escalator Rams minus three, Rams minus five and a

487
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 1: half win by fourteen or more plus three sixty win

488
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:49,400
Speaker 1: by twenty more plus seven to fifty. We are fading

489
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers into oblivion. Goodbye, Aaron, go enjoy Christmas, retire.

490
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 1: We're taking the Rams escalator.

491
00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 2: And listen if you're right. Another bet you might want

492
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 2: to look at is like Rams alt Sacks. I know

493
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 2: there's going to be five like that and six plus

494
00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,679
Speaker 2: out there. So if your narrative kind of hits that,

495
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 2: I think those should roll with it. Okay, let's keep

496
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 2: going here, Brown's Bengals. The only tease with this is

497
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:14,880
Speaker 2: the fact that you mentioned it. Saque's my seven point

498
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,679
Speaker 2: fifty to win Offensive Player of the Year. Chase is

499
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,440
Speaker 2: plus four to ten. Everyone's twenty to one or higher.

500
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 2: So why do you like Chase here?

501
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 3: I love Chase here.

502
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 1: I think that the Bengals are going to really want

503
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 1: to make a push with Jamar Chase. The Browns are

504
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 1: gotten in to the tank. So we're taking a Jamar

505
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,199
Speaker 1: Chase escalator here. We love our escalators. We're starting with

506
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,120
Speaker 1: them right out of the gates. Here, arip Jameis Winston.

507
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 1: We had fun, didn't we We had a good ride.

508
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 1: It's apparently Dorian Thompson Robinson season now, which is code

509
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 1: for the Browns are ready to tank and lose a

510
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 1: lot of games. I can't get to Minas seven and

511
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 1: a half here. Even as much as I downgrade DTR,

512
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 1: he's not good. But the Bengals defense, I want no

513
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 1: park betting on the Bengals defense. It's a pretty big

514
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:57,679
Speaker 1: indictment how bad the defense is that I am not

515
00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 1: quite willing to bat against DTR. However, if he gets

516
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 1: sacked a bonjem, he turns it over a bunch. That

517
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 1: makes these to get some points here. I did look

518
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,680
Speaker 1: at just the Bengals team total over over twenty seven

519
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,199
Speaker 1: and a half. They've scored twenty seven or more in

520
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: six straight games. So if you don't want the prop play,

521
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:16,680
Speaker 1: I like that one. But I noticed that the Bengals

522
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,399
Speaker 1: actually scored better than thirty points a game on the

523
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,239
Speaker 1: season with t Higgins in the lineup. Here's the thing

524
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 1: that caught me attention about the Teakans thing though the

525
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 1: Bengals and Jamar Chase specifically, Chase has better stats with

526
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 1: T Higgins, not without I would have thought that his

527
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 1: numbers would go up because he's getting all the passes.

528
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,119
Speaker 3: Funnel to him. It goes the other direction.

529
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:42,400
Speaker 1: Now, he did have that one ginormous game against Baltimore

530
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,120
Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty three and three touchdowns, No ta

531
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 1: in that game, but there are four other games without T. Higgins,

532
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 1: he averaged under forty nine yards a game, one touchdown

533
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 1: in four games. Five games all season, Chase has had

534
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 1: under seventy yards. Four of those were those games without T. Higgins.

535
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 1: With T on the field, one hundred and six yards

536
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 1: a game on the season, eleven touchdowns in nine games,

537
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,199
Speaker 1: at least one in seven of those games, and the

538
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:12,919
Speaker 1: Browns have been top five most fantasy points receivers fantasy

539
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 1: points allowed to receivers. They've allowed a touchdown to a

540
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 1: receiver in ten straight games. They've allowed six hundred yard receivers.

541
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:22,880
Speaker 1: So I look at the lines here. What caught my attention?

542
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 1: I wanted yards at first, but the line is like

543
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 1: eighty five, eighty eight and moving up. That's kind of

544
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 1: the median. I want outliers on Chase. So I'd rather

545
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 1: take just the touchdown minus one thirty Again, he's done

546
00:25:35,200 --> 00:25:38,640
Speaker 1: that seven of nine games with T. Higgins out there,

547
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 1: I like that number. Give me two touchdowns at five

548
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,399
Speaker 1: to one. That number is half of that at some

549
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 1: books out there. He's had two touchdowns or more, and

550
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 1: four of the nine games with T. Higgins that's almost

551
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,920
Speaker 1: half of them. We're getting five to one, and then

552
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 1: a couple more escalators. One hundred and fifty yards is

553
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 1: about seven to one. Give me that one at plus

554
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 1: seven to ten then and the meg escalator. This sounds crazy,

555
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: but one hundred and seventy five receiving yards and two scores.

556
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 1: He's done that three times this year. Only in the

557
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 1: entire NFL it's been four times. He's three of the four.

558
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 1: It's plus two thousand, six hundred and fifty six. So

559
00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 1: twenty six to one odds at one hundred and seventy

560
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 1: five yards and two scores. Probably not, but if anyone's

561
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 1: gonna do it, one to be Jamar Chase doing it

562
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 1: this weekend. Yet again, I think he's gonna have a

563
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 1: huge game.

564
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:30,679
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think an interesting angle as well as like

565
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 2: first half touchdown. I know some of those books offer it.

566
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 2: And if the Bengals are gonna go up and they're

567
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 2: gonna start firing, I would assume I haven't looked at

568
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,359
Speaker 2: the splits, but to me, it might give you a

569
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 2: little bit of a juice boost there all right, Detroit

570
00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 2: and Chicago, So I knew this stat kind of entering

571
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 2: this rundown and looking at kind of what you liked

572
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 2: here and when I first saw it, and I hope

573
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:54,200
Speaker 2: you have it as i'm setting you up here. It's

574
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 2: just ridiculous. It's just ridiculous that they're at this number.

575
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 2: But Lions, Bears, what's your pick?

576
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love the first half line on this game,

577
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 1: So Lions first half minus three and a half points.

578
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 1: We talked with the Lions already at the top, with

579
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 1: them fading with their defense. The defense thing is a

580
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 1: big problem. Unless you're playing the Browns then maybe or

581
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 1: playing the Bears, then maybe it's not such a big problem.

582
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 1: We had a nice honeymoon for the Bears, right Thomas

583
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 1: Brown goes to the offensive coordinator.

584
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 3: They had two really good games with them.

585
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:25,400
Speaker 1: Then they fire eber Flues, put Thomas Brown to head coach.

586
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:26,760
Speaker 3: We got a lot more stuff to do.

587
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 1: Don't get to put give so much attention to call

588
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 1: in the plays, and their offense is right back to

589
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 1: terrible again. Even worse, the defense has been terrible because

590
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 1: ebra Flues was good at that part. Now, last six games,

591
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 1: the Bears are the second worst defense in the league,

592
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 1: bottom three against the run and the pass by DVA.

593
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,719
Speaker 1: So it's all bad, especially the run defense. I think

594
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 1: Jamior Gibbs could have a big game. I think Jamison

595
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:51,159
Speaker 1: could have a big game as well. Lots of trends

596
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 1: like the Lions here, which is telling. Even in a

597
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 1: road division game late in the season, you would think

598
00:27:56,280 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 1: that's a Bears spot. Thanksgiving, we played this game not

599
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 1: a month ago. What happened halftime? Lions sixteen nothing. I'm

600
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 1: a little sore about this one because they got the

601
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 1: back door cover on Chicago, but sixteen nothing halftime that game.

602
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 1: Since then, Bears Niners twenty four and nothing at the

603
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 1: half Bears Vikings, we just watched it Monday night. Thirteen

604
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 1: nothing at the half. Let me do the math for you.

605
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 1: Fifty three to zip over the last three games at halftime,

606
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:30,119
Speaker 1: average eleven point deficit. Since the Bears last win in

607
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 1: London at the half, They're averaging four points a game

608
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 1: in the first half over that stretch. This offense is terrible.

609
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 2: Early.

610
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 1: Lions are eleven and three against the first half spread

611
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 1: on the season. Bears are four and ten worst in

612
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 1: the league, including zero to seven on the road in

613
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 1: the first half. I do like the Lions here. With

614
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 1: the Bengals, if you want to just do a teaser

615
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 1: on those full game, but for my Lions pick, I

616
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 1: will take just the first half line minus three and

617
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 1: a half.

618
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, last three seasons Dan Campbell first half thirty seven

619
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 2: thirteen and one seventy four percent, which is just absolutely absurd.

620
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep rolling here, Bills Patriots. So I

621
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 2: just thought this was very interesting and it might actually

622
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,760
Speaker 2: lead into your play. But it isn't every day that

623
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 2: you see a team close minus fourteen or higher in

624
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 2: consecutive games against the same opponent. And that's what's happening here.

625
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 2: Is the Bills, if they close fourteen or more already

626
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 2: did it to the Patriots when they faced them last time.

627
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 2: The only quarterbacks to do that in the last twenty

628
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 2: years it would be Josh Allen, rock Purty against the Cardinals,

629
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 2: Brady Mahomes, and Manning. So that is some list and

630
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 2: just a kind of fun stat but I think you're

631
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 2: going that direction.

632
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was looking at the fourteen for the last

633
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 1: five Bills wins against the Patriots are by twelve or more,

634
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 1: average fourteen point eight. So I think it's in that range,

635
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 1: but not quite enough for me to like it sucks

636
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 1: laying fourteen points as it better you give up the

637
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 1: one touchdown in the first quarter, You're like, oh my gosh,

638
00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 1: I needed like three touchdowns right now to get back

639
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 1: to even my bet here.

640
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 3: It's just tough to get there. I want it under

641
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 3: the fourteen, so.

642
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take another half bet, but I'm gonna go

643
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 1: second half on this one. Bill's second half minus six

644
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 1: and a half. I think that's a mistake. They're letting

645
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 1: us get under the seventh there, and that's why I

646
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:16,479
Speaker 1: was really liking this one. Patriots I think can maybe

647
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 1: hang a little bit. They've been more bad than awful.

648
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 1: I like Drake Man. I think he's been pretty good

649
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 1: for them. Still a tough road spot for the rookie

650
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 1: in Buffalo. Patriots have been the league's worst offense on

651
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 1: the road this season. Buffalo has been the league's best

652
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 1: home offense, so that's not great. I do think this

653
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 1: is a letdown spot for Buffalo. We've been saying that

654
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 1: for a bit, but they have like four big, huge

655
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 1: wins in a row at this point. So if it's

656
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 1: a letdown spot, maybe the Patriots hang around early. The

657
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 1: Bill's al was closed, though Buffalo possibly could be playing

658
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 1: to get into a one seed here if the Chiefs

659
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 1: have lost on Saturday already and the full game trends

660
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 1: kind of like the Bills. Anyway, They've won by twenty

661
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 1: one points five times this year, five times last year.

662
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 1: They win big in games, but they often take the

663
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 1: second half. Josh Allen second half, We've had that stat

664
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:08,719
Speaker 1: a lot sixty nine thirty five and three ATS sixty

665
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 1: six percent. That's two out of every three he's covering

666
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 1: this season, twelve and two against the second half spread.

667
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 1: As a thirteen or more point full game favorite second

668
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 1: half spread, Allen is nine and two ATS.

669
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 3: They've won that.

670
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 1: Second half by double digit seven of those nine times

671
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 1: he has won. So I like it under the key here.

672
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 1: I think that that should be above it. Give me

673
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 1: Buffalo minus six and a half second half line.

674
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, Drake May will keep you in the game, and

675
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 2: then I'll take you right out. It's a bunch of

676
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 2: those qbs right now. Even though honestly I talked about

677
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 2: it earlier. With his offensive line, I think he's playing fantastic.

678
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 2: But Buffalo's defense also, I feel like once to make

679
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 2: a statement at some point after allowing all these points.

680
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 2: All right, your last best bet Dallas and Tampa Bay.

681
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 2: So the fun stat I had here was Todd Bowles's

682
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:57,880
Speaker 2: coach seventeen games as a road favorite, when the home

683
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 2: team scores fourteen points or less, he's i've oats. When

684
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 2: the home team scores more than fourteen points, he's three

685
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 2: to eight and one, losing six of those games outright.

686
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 2: So to me, this game is just a bet on

687
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 2: what you think Cooper Rush can do. And they tell

688
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 2: a Cowboys team totals like twenty two and a half,

689
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 2: so obviously the number makers think they can put up

690
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 2: some points here.

691
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna take Dallas. We need a little something

692
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 1: on that Sunday night game. That's not our best Sunday

693
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 1: night game of the year. But gave me Dallas plus four.

694
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 1: I don't love your framing, to be honest, I don't

695
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 1: love that. I'm investing for Rush a second straight week.

696
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 3: Here. We bet the Cowboys.

697
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 1: Last week, we got a very nice easy win on

698
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 1: the Cowboys. We faded the Bucks that did not go

699
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 1: so well. But let's hope that we get the gather

700
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:44,720
Speaker 1: this week. Dallas's defense last six weeks borderline top ten

701
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 1: defense by DVOA. Pass defense has been really good. Micah

702
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 1: Parsons being back in the lineup. It turns out having

703
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 1: the best defender in football perhaps pretty good for your defense.

704
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 1: It turns out, and Dallas has been above average running

705
00:32:58,080 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 1: the football. We go Dad did have a big game,

706
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 1: like we talked about. I don't know if that's gonna

707
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 1: matter a lot here. Tampa's run defense pretty good with

708
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 1: Vitavea certainly helps a little bit. Dallas defense pretty good

709
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 1: against wide receiver one, a pretty good deep ball. I

710
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 1: think that's good against Mike Evans. I said that last

711
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 1: week for the Chargers didn't work out well, so hopefully

712
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,640
Speaker 1: it's a little better matchup this week. BLACKI Irving's been

713
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 1: good for Tampa. He's still banged up and we never

714
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 1: know if like he's gonna finish a game to game,

715
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 1: so similar to last week.

716
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 3: I just think the book number.

717
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 1: On the Cowboys a little bit low here. I had

718
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 1: them favored last week against Carolina. They clearly should have been.

719
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 1: I have them more like Tampa plus one or Tampa

720
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:38,320
Speaker 1: minus one and a half here. So we're getting a

721
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 1: real value, a couple points of value and pass the

722
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:43,440
Speaker 1: key number. I think it's just a really good sell

723
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 1: high spot for the Bucks. Here's some trends that back

724
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 1: that up. So they obviously just won a huge game

725
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 1: last week as underdogs. Teams that win by seventeen or

726
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 1: more as underdogs a touchdown or less next game sixty three,

727
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 1: one hundred and sixteen and three thirty six percent against

728
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 1: the spread, so that that's one way to sell high.

729
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 1: Here's another one rood underdogs. That's Tampa that covered road

730
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 1: teams that covered as underdogs by twenty six or more

731
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 1: last week, so really surprise the spread those teams fifteen

732
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 1: thirty eight and one against the spread twenty eight percent

733
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:19,799
Speaker 1: since twenty ten. And then here's one more, a little

734
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 1: different sort of trend similar to one I know you

735
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 1: have in your trends article this week, Week sixteen and later.

736
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 1: Teams that are in the must win spot. Those kind

737
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 1: of a round five hundred teams, you gotta be careful.

738
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 1: We know they need to win, we know the Bucks

739
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 1: need to win. If teams have won in that span

740
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:38,399
Speaker 1: forty to sixty percent win, right, that's Tampa. Then they're

741
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:41,560
Speaker 1: facing a team that's eight to twenty five percent worse.

742
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 1: So basically a five hundred ish team playing slightly worse

743
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:49,280
Speaker 1: than that, probably a team that's just eliminated. Those teams

744
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 1: are twenty nine, seventy four and five against the spread

745
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 1: twenty eight percent. That is a terrible number if you

746
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:58,839
Speaker 1: look just season by season. This is a winning trend

747
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:01,359
Speaker 1: year after a year. It's I ever finished in two

748
00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:04,359
Speaker 1: decades of data more than one game blow five hundred.

749
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 1: We get like forty seven of these games a year.

750
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 3: This is one of them.

751
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 1: There's a couple others this week as well, so I

752
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:12,760
Speaker 1: think it's just too many points for the Bucks. Baker

753
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 1: as a favorite thirty nine percent against the spread. I

754
00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:18,240
Speaker 1: lean under on this game as well, so lower scoring,

755
00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 1: We're just gonna take the points here. Play the number,

756
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:22,879
Speaker 1: Cowboys plus four and Sunday.

757
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 2: Night, Yeah, Cowboys money line in the under would be

758
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 2: a fun Brandon Anderson type bet if he believes that

759
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:31,759
Speaker 2: that would go that direction. All right, lightning round here,

760
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 2: We're gonna go a little bit quicker.

761
00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 3: See the thunder. Lightning round the thunder.

762
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 2: Tennessee and Indy. Listen, we know Tennessee can't cover the

763
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:45,479
Speaker 2: spread this year two and twelve ATS, but you're taking

764
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 2: a different angle here. What's your play?

765
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:49,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got three lightning unders here. We know I

766
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:51,720
Speaker 1: love my division and rematch under is late in the season,

767
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:53,879
Speaker 1: so give me the under forty two and a half.

768
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 1: I don't trust either offense here, and I don't know

769
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 1: why you would. The Titans are playing roulette a quarterback.

770
00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:01,320
Speaker 1: There's second to worst offense on this season. It's Mason

771
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 1: Rudolph against the Colts defense that's kind of quietly getting

772
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:08,520
Speaker 1: pretty good. There's there eighth defensively in the last six weeks.

773
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:11,839
Speaker 1: Titans defense. We've talked about them a bunch. They've been

774
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 1: pretty good this season, as bad as the offense has been. Now,

775
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: I do think the past defense is fading. It's Anthony Richardson.

776
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,239
Speaker 1: The Colts can't pass the ball anyways. They're bottom five

777
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 1: for the season passing the ball with Richardson. They're supposed

778
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 1: to be good running, but they're bottom quarter of league

779
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 1: running the football over the last six weeks as well

780
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:32,400
Speaker 1: with them, even though you know, Heaven forbid Jonathan Taylor

781
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:34,439
Speaker 1: dropped the ball at the goal line again there as well.

782
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:37,839
Speaker 1: Both of these units are better in the spot they're at,

783
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:41,279
Speaker 1: meaning the Titans are better on the road defensively by

784
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 1: like ten spots in the rankings. The Colts are better

785
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 1: by that many spots at home in the rankings defensively,

786
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 1: so I think there's a good spot for the defense here.

787
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 1: Usually profitable betting and under in this sort of range

788
00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:56,719
Speaker 1: that is dropping a little bit. Sometimes that scares Better's off,

789
00:36:56,880 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 1: but usually that should tell us, actually that we're on

790
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:02,480
Speaker 1: the right side, because the other smart guys are betting

791
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 1: this direction as well. And we're still about some key

792
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 1: numbers here and then some my late division late season

793
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:11,720
Speaker 1: division trends Week fourteen or later, home favored under seven.

794
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 1: The game goes under in a division game fifty seven

795
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:16,799
Speaker 1: percent of the time. Total forty to forty seven goes

796
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 1: under fifty six percent of the time. Colts do fit

797
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 1: that must win trend we just talked about, so they

798
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 1: should be careful too. I think the Titans could be

799
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:26,840
Speaker 1: live here. I think it's low scoring. I think it's close.

800
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:28,879
Speaker 1: Give me the under forty two and a half.

801
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:32,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, Rudolph does make them better, and you like another

802
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 2: divisional game here, So why don't you just keep going

803
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 2: with this under and then I can give you one

804
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:38,399
Speaker 2: more thing before your next under.

805
00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll go Eagles Commanders under forty five and a half.

806
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 1: We already bet the Eagles in this game minus two

807
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 1: and a half. On the look ahead, we're on the

808
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 1: other side of the key now minus three and a half,

809
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 1: so that's looking good. Similar case here, Eagles defense is

810
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:54,319
Speaker 1: rolling Big Fangio masterclass like they are the best at everything. Defensively,

811
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 1: Washington's defense has been the week link. That's why I

812
00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:00,160
Speaker 1: like the Eagles. But look at those Eagles injury. We

813
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 1: talked about Saquon already, I'm not sure that he's totally healthy.

814
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 1: Ag Brown rolled his ankle last game. Lattimore is finally playing.

815
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 1: It looks like for Washington, Dallas Goddard is out. Philadelphia

816
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,279
Speaker 1: is a very top heavy offense and they're missing or

817
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 1: limited on some of these stars here and Washington has

818
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 1: been a top ten defense in the first half, where

819
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:22,040
Speaker 1: we know the Eagles don't score that well early, so

820
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:24,759
Speaker 1: I think this could be kind of just ugly low

821
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:28,200
Speaker 1: scoring early. Last month, they played twenty six to ten

822
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 1: until a garbage touchdown with thirty seconds left, and it

823
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 1: still went under even with that one. Five of the

824
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 1: last six Eagles games finished forty four or below, all

825
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:38,800
Speaker 1: but against the Rams, who are scoring so many points,

826
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 1: So we're trending that way Washington when they play non

827
00:38:42,719 --> 00:38:45,279
Speaker 1: playoff teams is averaging almost thirty one points a game

828
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:48,760
Speaker 1: four games against playoff opponents, which the Philadelphi Eagles clearly

829
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:51,240
Speaker 1: are down to twenty two points a game. So pretty

830
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:55,360
Speaker 1: huge difference there. Some of those same late division trends.

831
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,319
Speaker 1: Outdoors sixty two percent to the under for a week

832
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 1: fourteen or later division matchup, and Siriani, you bet the

833
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,719
Speaker 1: under for him on the road sixty one percent. I

834
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:07,360
Speaker 1: like the under forty five and a half points on

835
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:08,320
Speaker 1: Eagles Commanders.

836
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:10,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was surprised to see the Eagles are nine

837
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 2: and five to the under this year, and honestly, since

838
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 2: two thousand they've only hit ten unders in a single

839
00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:18,920
Speaker 2: season three times, so they're not usually this type of offense.

840
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 2: But you're right, they're top heavy and their defense is incredible. Okay,

841
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 2: Minnesota and Seattle and is still your thunder. But Flora

842
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 2: is nineteen and twelve to the under in Minnesota. He

843
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 2: was even under in Miami, so you know, it's kind

844
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 2: of the direction that that defense brings to the table.

845
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:35,759
Speaker 2: What do you got here?

846
00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:38,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, no division here, but just another under. Give me

847
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:41,120
Speaker 1: the under forty two and a half. Really important game

848
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 1: this week and very playoff feel, especially for Seattle. Minnesota

849
00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 1: actually controls their destiny for the one seed. Now, if

850
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:50,520
Speaker 1: they went out despite the tough schedule, Seattle I think

851
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:52,760
Speaker 1: is gonna be licking their wounds a little bit. This defense.

852
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:55,280
Speaker 1: As much as we've talked them up, they got smoked.

853
00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 1: They got absolutely crushed last week against Green Bay at

854
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 1: home in Seattle. I think this is a spot where

855
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 1: you're gonna come out angry. They're gonna want to look

856
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:07,239
Speaker 1: really good, and you've got Minnesota on a short week,

857
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:10,600
Speaker 1: flying across the country west, and you've got Sam Darnold

858
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:13,320
Speaker 1: on the road in a pretty tough, loud road environment

859
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 1: against that angry twelfth man Seattle defense.

860
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 2: I like that.

861
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:21,720
Speaker 1: Defensively, on the other side, like you said, Brian Floydes

862
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:24,279
Speaker 1: is gonna bring the heat, and Sales offensive line is

863
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:27,040
Speaker 1: not held up. So either you get banged up Gino

864
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 1: Smith looks like he'll be able to go at least

865
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:32,440
Speaker 1: starting out, or you get Sam Howell, who takes a

866
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:35,319
Speaker 1: sack like once every drive and man, if I could

867
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:37,840
Speaker 1: like live bet the sack total if Sam Howell checks in,

868
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:41,879
Speaker 1: give me that possibility. Sales offense has been worse at home.

869
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:45,120
Speaker 1: Their defense has been better at home. Zach Charbonney is

870
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 1: popping up on the injury report now with Kenneth Walker

871
00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 1: still out, it looks kind of windy and rainy. It's

872
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:53,839
Speaker 1: in Seattle. You mentioned the Vikings stat to the under

873
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:55,719
Speaker 1: nine to five this season on the under. I think

874
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:59,440
Speaker 1: Seattle's moving toward the under with Mike McDonald as well.

875
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 3: Another under here.

876
00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 1: Close competitive playoff sort of game. Viking seats under forty

877
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 1: two and a half.

878
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 2: All right, and you finally your last pick. I don't

879
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 2: have much of a tease for Arizona and Carolina because

880
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 2: you know you wouldn't really be watching unless you had

881
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 2: a bet, So give us one.

882
00:41:16,000 --> 00:41:18,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just wanted James counter rushing over and look,

883
00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 1: I don't even a line yet, but I like it

884
00:41:19,920 --> 00:41:21,719
Speaker 1: so much I just wanted to give it out. Anyways,

885
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:23,880
Speaker 1: The Panthers are getting better at a lot of stuff.

886
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:26,319
Speaker 1: We know that they were terrible last week, but Bryce

887
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:28,600
Speaker 1: Young is getting better. The offense is improving, the pass

888
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 1: defense is improving. The one thing that's not improved at

889
00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 1: any point this season is there's still the league's worst

890
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:36,640
Speaker 1: run defense. And there are some bad run defenses. So

891
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:39,319
Speaker 1: if you're the worst, you are really the worst. They're

892
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:43,080
Speaker 1: especially bad up the middle. That's where Arizona lives. That's

893
00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 1: where they're at their best with James Connor. And with Connor,

894
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:48,759
Speaker 1: he's got some weird numbers. He has four games us

895
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 1: here at thirty three yards or less where he just

896
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:55,359
Speaker 1: like disappeared, wasn't part of the game plan. Usually that's

897
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 1: against a really good team and like a bad loss,

898
00:41:57,560 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 1: so they just kind of went pass heavy. I only

899
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:02,480
Speaker 1: think that's gonna happening against Carolina. That's not the situation here.

900
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:05,280
Speaker 3: Because those games are in his stats.

901
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 1: They're bringing his average down, and I think that they're

902
00:42:08,239 --> 00:42:11,360
Speaker 1: kind of reflected in a softer line than we should

903
00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 1: be getting. The line for Connor last week was sixty

904
00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:15,320
Speaker 1: three and a half. It's gonna be higher than that

905
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 1: because the books No. Carolina's to run defense isn't any

906
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 1: good either. But Connor has half of his games this

907
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 1: year eighty six yards or more when he gets sixteen

908
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:25,920
Speaker 1: or more carries. In ten games this year, he's averaging

909
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:28,320
Speaker 1: eighty nine yards a game. I don't know what the

910
00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 1: line's gonna be, not sixty three and a half, but

911
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:33,760
Speaker 1: I think anything blows seventy five. Give me the James

912
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 1: counter rushing yards over.

913
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:38,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that Carolina defense has been a sieve. So

914
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:40,760
Speaker 2: I mean, if that's the game plan, and they should

915
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 2: want to get Kyler off his horse, especially in Carolina,

916
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:45,880
Speaker 2: maybe in a cold game that he's not used to,

917
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 2: I may as well give it to his workhorse. All right,

918
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 2: we've got three picks left here. Now these are look aheads.

919
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:55,040
Speaker 3: Let's look ahead. Just give it a shot.

920
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:56,319
Speaker 2: How about next week?

921
00:42:56,880 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 1: I got my mindset, got my mindset.

922
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:05,359
Speaker 2: You've got one for next week, and then you're gonna

923
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:07,920
Speaker 2: talk about Christmas Day. So give us the week seventeen

924
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:08,359
Speaker 2: look ahead.

925
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:11,719
Speaker 1: First I started working on the look ahead, I was like, guys,

926
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:13,239
Speaker 1: I don't know, it's kind of an ugly slate. I

927
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 1: don't have that many bets for this week, so let

928
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 1: me just add in a few extra look ahead. Let's

929
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:18,759
Speaker 1: go Christmas look ahead. And what do you know, we

930
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 1: came up with like nine bets for the slate this week. Anyways,

931
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 1: that's all right, it's the season of giving. Let's give

932
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:26,720
Speaker 1: out some look ahead. So here's your traditional look ahead first,

933
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 1: sticking with the theme we just had, it's another division

934
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:33,360
Speaker 1: under Cowboys Eagles. Give me the under forty five and

935
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 1: a half. Speaking of gifts for Christmas, somehow this game

936
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:39,959
Speaker 1: is one of two games in the late afternoon slate

937
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:42,360
Speaker 1: next Sunday afternoon. I don't know what we did to

938
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 1: deserve that sort of cool in our stocking, but we

939
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:47,319
Speaker 1: got all the Island games. We've got Christmas games, We've

940
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:49,239
Speaker 1: got Thursday night, we got three on Saturday. We've got

941
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 1: a Monday night game, Sunday night game. Guess what we

942
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 1: got Cowboys Eagles on Sunday afternoon. Not a good one anymore.

943
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,080
Speaker 1: We already kind of made the case here. We talked

944
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 1: about both these defenses already. The Anglo Eagles defense number

945
00:44:01,640 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 1: one at basically everything right now. Cowboys defense, especially against

946
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 1: the pass, has been much better. And I know they

947
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 1: can't stop the run and Eagles can run.

948
00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 3: I'm good with that. Run the ball. Do one of

949
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:13,320
Speaker 3: your twenty.

950
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:16,760
Speaker 1: Play drives and just slowly chew the clock up. Thirteen

951
00:44:16,840 --> 00:44:20,359
Speaker 1: minute drive, please, sir, may have another. Let's just run

952
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:23,239
Speaker 1: the clock out. There's thirty four to six Eagles. Last

953
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 1: time they played Cooper Rush in that game through forty

954
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 1: five yards. You didn't miss a number at the beginning

955
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:33,640
Speaker 1: of that forty five double digits, not triple digits.

956
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 3: In Cooper Rush games.

957
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 1: Those games are averaging forty two points a game is

958
00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 1: finished forty four below nine of those twelve, so seventy

959
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:44,760
Speaker 1: five percent of his games hit. This number that Eagles

960
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:46,760
Speaker 1: Cowboys game we just talked about was forty.

961
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:47,160
Speaker 3: Three and a half.

962
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:50,319
Speaker 1: This number is forty five and a half here, forty

963
00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:52,640
Speaker 1: four and a half at one book. That's a key number.

964
00:44:52,680 --> 00:44:54,880
Speaker 1: So it's already starting to drop a little bit. One

965
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:57,279
Speaker 1: thing that did pause me a little bit here we

966
00:44:57,400 --> 00:45:01,799
Speaker 1: just talked about. I bet Siriani rode on and usually homeovers.

967
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:04,920
Speaker 1: This is a home game for the Eagles. However, like

968
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:07,440
Speaker 1: you said, this is an Eagles under season. They're five

969
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 1: and two to the under even at home this season.

970
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:13,160
Speaker 1: Some of those usual division rematch trends fit here as well,

971
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:15,759
Speaker 1: including one I mentioned. The Eagles have gone under five

972
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:18,359
Speaker 1: of the last six if they go under again this week,

973
00:45:18,440 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 1: like we thought, Week fourteen and four division matchups where

974
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 1: the home team has gone under at least eighty percent

975
00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:26,120
Speaker 1: of their last five games, So basically four to one

976
00:45:26,239 --> 00:45:28,720
Speaker 1: or five and zero to the under, fifty nine percent

977
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:31,640
Speaker 1: to the under in this game. Forecast is win and

978
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:34,319
Speaker 1: rain it's late in the year. I still think we're

979
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 1: getting a lot of points in this one. So on

980
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:40,160
Speaker 1: the look ahead four week seventeen Eagles Cowboys under forty

981
00:45:40,200 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 1: five and a half points.

982
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, and shop there looks like it's even dropping at

983
00:45:43,600 --> 00:45:45,839
Speaker 2: a few stalks. But I do see a forty five

984
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:49,399
Speaker 2: and a half or two left. All right, two Christmas Day,

985
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:52,160
Speaker 2: look aheads, open up the presence, now get them under

986
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 2: the tree. What what do you got for us?

987
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, we don't get to record before Christmas next week,

988
00:45:56,640 --> 00:45:58,040
Speaker 1: so I figured, you know what will be on on

989
00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:00,200
Speaker 1: Sunday night, But let's go ahead and gets some really

990
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:03,280
Speaker 1: Christmas picks in both sides here. None of these niche

991
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:06,800
Speaker 1: crazy whatever bets. All it's available right now is sides.

992
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:11,239
Speaker 1: So start the first one, Steelers Chiefs in the Pittsburgh.

993
00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:14,520
Speaker 1: The Chiefs are two and a half point favorites. I

994
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:17,359
Speaker 1: think that's a mistake. Give me the Steelers plus two.

995
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:18,359
Speaker 3: And a half at home.

996
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:21,279
Speaker 1: I don't know that we can make this Chiefs team

997
00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:24,400
Speaker 1: right now a road near field goal favorite against a

998
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 1: pretty good playoff team. I make this by my numbers

999
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:32,640
Speaker 1: with healthy mahomes Pittsburgh minus half a point, so slight

1000
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:37,279
Speaker 1: favorite at home with Mahomes healthy, Mahomes is not healthy either.

1001
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:41,400
Speaker 1: We're getting the Chiefs on four days of rest with

1002
00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:45,719
Speaker 1: a banged up Patrick Mahomes or and here's the key,

1003
00:46:46,600 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz. We might be getting Carson Wentz. Especially if

1004
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:54,280
Speaker 1: the Chiefs win this weekend. They're in pretty good shape

1005
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:56,799
Speaker 1: for the one seed. They would be in a really

1006
00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 1: good spot to just give Pat a week off, give

1007
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:01,719
Speaker 1: them a chance to catch his breath on the short

1008
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:06,480
Speaker 1: week this week. The Texans, when we thought Mahomes wasn't playing,

1009
00:47:06,920 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 1: we're minus two and a half road favorites to Kansas City.

1010
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:12,840
Speaker 1: Now the Mahomes is back in right now, they are

1011
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:14,560
Speaker 1: minus three and a half too the Chiefs. That is

1012
00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 1: a six point swing, and that's kind of the bad here.

1013
00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:21,279
Speaker 1: I think that I like Pittsburgh anyway, but I love

1014
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 1: that we might possibly go from Mike Pittsburgh plus two

1015
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 1: and a half to minus three and a half or

1016
00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 1: minus four swing all the way through those key numbers.

1017
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 1: It's a great raw ross spot at home. In all likelihood,

1018
00:47:34,640 --> 00:47:37,359
Speaker 1: it's probably coming off of a loss. If we're being fair,

1019
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:40,160
Speaker 1: they're playing the Ravens, who are big favorites. That's better

1020
00:47:40,239 --> 00:47:42,840
Speaker 1: for the raw ross spot. In fact, after losing to

1021
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:45,800
Speaker 1: the Ravens, the Steelers are twelve and five against the

1022
00:47:45,840 --> 00:47:48,440
Speaker 1: spread the following week under Tomlin, so that would set

1023
00:47:48,520 --> 00:47:51,279
Speaker 1: up well. And then just the main matchup thing, who's

1024
00:47:51,320 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 1: got the best pass rush in the league. It's the

1025
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:56,920
Speaker 1: Steelers and those Chiefs have no tackles right now. Do

1026
00:47:57,000 --> 00:47:59,600
Speaker 1: you really want Patrick Mahomes back there banged up on

1027
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:03,680
Speaker 1: a short against TJ. Watt and high Smith and all

1028
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:06,279
Speaker 1: those guys coming downhill all game. I don't know that

1029
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:09,439
Speaker 1: I see it going very well. So gambling a little

1030
00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:11,880
Speaker 1: bit here, but I think there's a possible huge upside

1031
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:14,759
Speaker 1: if Mahomes ends up not playing or missing part of

1032
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 1: the game.

1033
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:19,400
Speaker 3: Here. Steelers plus two and a half first Christmas peck, Yeah.

1034
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:21,040
Speaker 2: And those two and a half's are kind of disappearing,

1035
00:48:21,120 --> 00:48:22,879
Speaker 2: So when you listen to this, make sure you shop

1036
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:24,600
Speaker 2: around and kind of find those in the other bet.

1037
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:26,440
Speaker 2: I think you would attach to that obviously won't be

1038
00:48:26,560 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 2: out until we get much closer to the game, but

1039
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 2: something like Pittsburgh sacks, Like if you did Pittsburgh was

1040
00:48:32,120 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 2: still plus money and you attached a four or five

1041
00:48:34,800 --> 00:48:37,120
Speaker 2: sack to it, I think it would probably get there.

1042
00:48:37,160 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 2: His offensive line, Mahomes is just kind of falling apart,

1043
00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:41,760
Speaker 2: and I think they're just trying to tape it together.

1044
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:44,880
Speaker 2: All right, Last Christmas Day? Bet what you got?

1045
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 3: Last one?

1046
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 1: We got Baltimore Houston. It's these same teams playing Saturday.

1047
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:52,040
Speaker 1: That's why they're playing Saturday, because we got this Wednesday

1048
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:55,680
Speaker 1: Christmas Day things. We're flipping opponents. I like the Ravens

1049
00:48:55,880 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 1: minus two and a half at the Texans. Come on,

1050
00:48:57,600 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 1: we already knew where this was going. I'm bet on

1051
00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 1: a raven super Bowl futures and all this stuff. I've

1052
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 1: been fading Texans all season long. Texans are now number

1053
00:49:04,640 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 1: one defense by DVA for the season. The Ravens are

1054
00:49:07,640 --> 00:49:10,640
Speaker 1: number one offense. When you get number one offense versus

1055
00:49:10,760 --> 00:49:13,440
Speaker 1: number one defense, elade, the offense tends to be the

1056
00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 1: leade defense. And you know what it especially does with

1057
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 1: four days of prep when you do not get extra

1058
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:20,920
Speaker 1: time to prepare for Lamar Jackson.

1059
00:49:21,160 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 3: Oh, I don't love that for you.

1060
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:25,720
Speaker 1: You get no time to prep for this like wicked,

1061
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:30,359
Speaker 1: weird Ravens offense Lamar on under six days of rest,

1062
00:49:30,440 --> 00:49:32,359
Speaker 1: four to one against the spread. You do not want

1063
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:35,240
Speaker 1: to have short chance to get ready for him. Demiko

1064
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 1: Ryans only had one chance on that short of rest.

1065
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:40,040
Speaker 1: That was this year against the Jets. They lost that

1066
00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:41,840
Speaker 1: game outright, twenty one to thirteen.

1067
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 3: They look really flat.

1068
00:49:43,560 --> 00:49:45,960
Speaker 1: I don't trust a newer head coach to have the

1069
00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:49,319
Speaker 1: team ready. I prefer John Harbaugh and the Ravens staff here.

1070
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:53,359
Speaker 1: I think, obviously to Baltimore's defense is improving. They can

1071
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:56,600
Speaker 1: hang with the Texans offense. I think just fine. Texans

1072
00:49:56,680 --> 00:49:58,959
Speaker 1: not good in the second half, don't mind that because

1073
00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:00,560
Speaker 1: we know how the Ravens like to choke away the

1074
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:02,960
Speaker 1: second half things. So let's just get that part out

1075
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:06,080
Speaker 1: of here. Perception on this game where the line could go.

1076
00:50:06,760 --> 00:50:10,760
Speaker 1: If Baltimore beats Pittsburgh, they're leading the division. Suddenly Houston

1077
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:13,960
Speaker 1: probably loses to Mahomes if that happens to be the case,

1078
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:16,520
Speaker 1: and this probably flips to the other side.

1079
00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:17,520
Speaker 3: Of the key number.

1080
00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:21,080
Speaker 1: And for this game, I'm not sure this game matters

1081
00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:23,440
Speaker 1: so much to Houston. It is Christmas, so maybe just

1082
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:26,600
Speaker 1: that alone does the trick. But for their seeding, they're

1083
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:28,840
Speaker 1: pretty much the four seed. They already won the division.

1084
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 1: They're pretty well set here. Like Joe Mixon's banged up,

1085
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:33,520
Speaker 1: Do we need to risk him on a short week, etc.

1086
00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 1: This could be a playoff matchup. I don't know if

1087
00:50:37,040 --> 00:50:39,400
Speaker 1: you show your cards that much as Houston with now

1088
00:50:39,440 --> 00:50:43,120
Speaker 1: what you play for Baltimore either will win this week

1089
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:45,680
Speaker 1: and they're playing to keep the division and the home game,

1090
00:50:46,320 --> 00:50:48,759
Speaker 1: or they lose this week and they're not even a

1091
00:50:48,760 --> 00:50:50,680
Speaker 1: playoff team yet. They got to like still go out

1092
00:50:50,719 --> 00:50:52,959
Speaker 1: and win their way into the playoffs at that point

1093
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:55,800
Speaker 1: and not fall too far down into the standings. So

1094
00:50:55,880 --> 00:50:58,040
Speaker 1: I think from a motivation standpoint, I like the spot

1095
00:50:58,120 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 1: for Baltimore as well. There is a minus three out

1096
00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 1: there already. I want to blow the key number one.

1097
00:51:03,160 --> 00:51:05,600
Speaker 1: Big Book has minus two and a half. Grab the

1098
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:08,040
Speaker 1: Ravens mass two and a half on Christmas Day.

1099
00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, you took a kind of words out of my

1100
00:51:10,719 --> 00:51:13,400
Speaker 2: mouth that it's a numbers play because you're assuming this

1101
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:15,800
Speaker 2: will get up to three depending on the results of

1102
00:51:15,840 --> 00:51:18,879
Speaker 2: the weekend. All right, we've delivered I believe at least

1103
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:22,399
Speaker 2: thirty bets on this podcast between me and Brandon, going

1104
00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:25,319
Speaker 2: back and forth between the entire slate. This has been

1105
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:28,200
Speaker 2: the Action Network podcast for our NFL Week sixteen Best

1106
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:31,400
Speaker 2: Bets episode. Now, don't forget to download the free award

1107
00:51:31,440 --> 00:51:33,680
Speaker 2: winning Action Network app to see more from all of

1108
00:51:33,760 --> 00:51:37,520
Speaker 2: our Action Network contributors. Plus you can track your own picks. Also,

1109
00:51:37,880 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 2: make sure to check out our Action Network discord to

1110
00:51:40,239 --> 00:51:42,800
Speaker 2: chop it up with experts fellow gamblers during these games.

1111
00:51:43,120 --> 00:51:45,799
Speaker 2: I'm on there, tons of other people are on there.

1112
00:51:45,880 --> 00:51:48,160
Speaker 2: You can just you know, text us talk to us

1113
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:51,680
Speaker 2: discord Us. There's a link in the description of the podcast. Now,

1114
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:54,840
Speaker 2: don't miss our week sixteen betting preview episode was Stucky

1115
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:57,279
Speaker 2: in Raybon, which is out now and we'll be back

1116
00:51:57,400 --> 00:52:00,440
Speaker 2: next week with more best bets Me and Brandon. Thank

1117
00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:02,680
Speaker 2: you for listening and good luck with all your bets

1118
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:22,000
Speaker 2: ovid the slate this weekend. Action Network reminds you please

1119
00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:25,480
Speaker 2: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has

1120
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:28,600
Speaker 2: a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven

1121
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:30,160
Speaker 2: at one eight hundred Gambler