WEBVTT - Preparing for the Future of War 0:00:15.356 --> 0:00:22.516 Pushkin. If you go to the front line of the 0:00:22.556 --> 0:00:26.356 war in Ukraine and you look up, there's a very 0:00:26.356 --> 0:00:30.236 good chance you'll see a drone. Could be a friendly drone, 0:00:30.676 --> 0:00:34.116 could be an enemy drone, could be a reconnaissance drone, 0:00:34.716 --> 0:00:36.516 or it could be a drone that is trying to 0:00:36.636 --> 0:00:39.796 kill you. The war in Ukraine is the first war 0:00:39.876 --> 0:00:44.596 in history where huge numbers of cheap drones powered largely 0:00:44.596 --> 0:00:48.276 by commercial grade hardware and open source software, are playing 0:00:48.276 --> 0:00:53.516 a central role. This technological change has profound implications. It 0:00:53.556 --> 0:00:57.156 gives smaller countries like Ukraine new ways to fight, and 0:00:57.196 --> 0:01:00.836 it means the militaries of big traditional powers military is 0:01:00.836 --> 0:01:04.756 built on twentieth century technologies like tanks and aircraft carriers, 0:01:05.276 --> 0:01:14.876 need to radically change just to keep up. I'm Jacob Goldstein, 0:01:14.956 --> 0:01:17.076 and this is what's your problem. My guest today is 0:01:17.156 --> 0:01:20.996 Christopher Kirkoff. Nine years ago, Christopher helped to start the 0:01:20.996 --> 0:01:24.836 Defense Innovation Unit, a Defense Department office in Silicon Valley. 0:01:25.156 --> 0:01:28.836 He currently works as an advisor there. Christopher says, in 0:01:28.876 --> 0:01:31.636 many ways, the US military has failed to keep up 0:01:31.676 --> 0:01:35.676 with the way military technology has changed. That fundamentally is 0:01:35.676 --> 0:01:38.596 the problem. DIU is trying to solve how can the 0:01:38.676 --> 0:01:42.436 giant bureaucracy that is the US military catch up with 0:01:42.516 --> 0:01:48.676 the latest military technology. Christopher is a civilian. He had 0:01:48.676 --> 0:01:52.356 a bunch of national security related jobs in the Obama administration, 0:01:52.876 --> 0:01:55.476 and he recently co wrote a book about his work 0:01:55.556 --> 0:01:59.156 at the Defense Innovation Unit, the DIIU. Christopher and I 0:01:59.276 --> 0:02:02.356 talk about the book and the DIIU later in the interview, 0:02:02.796 --> 0:02:05.596 but to start, we talked about the weapons and tech 0:02:05.756 --> 0:02:08.836 being used in the war in Ukraine. So, I mean, 0:02:08.836 --> 0:02:12.876 it's in some ways like the war in Ukraine. It 0:02:12.916 --> 0:02:16.516 is some version of the war or the kind of 0:02:16.556 --> 0:02:20.196 war you've been thinking about for a long time, years 0:02:20.236 --> 0:02:20.636 and years. 0:02:21.356 --> 0:02:24.516 Well, I've always looked at Ukraine, you know, at sort 0:02:24.516 --> 0:02:27.596 of two levels. The first, of course, is that it's 0:02:27.636 --> 0:02:32.036 just a very tragic and frankly needless war. You know, 0:02:32.076 --> 0:02:38.596 there's there's very few reasons right ever to go to war, 0:02:38.836 --> 0:02:41.316 and this is a particularly stupid war that's just going 0:02:41.356 --> 0:02:44.556 to cost a lot of young men and women their lives. 0:02:45.276 --> 0:02:47.956 So it's tragic, and I'm terribly sorry for the suffering 0:02:47.996 --> 0:02:50.316 of the Ukrainian people, and frankly the suffering of the 0:02:50.356 --> 0:02:53.076 young conscripted Russian soldiers as well, So let me just 0:02:53.196 --> 0:02:56.956 say that to start. But the second way that I 0:02:56.956 --> 0:03:01.396 look at Ukraine as you know, essentially a laboratory of war. 0:03:02.276 --> 0:03:06.676 We saw in you know, a decade ago already the 0:03:06.796 --> 0:03:10.076 rise of commercial technologies that it was it was obvious 0:03:10.156 --> 0:03:14.156 could be weaponized and weaponized at scale. And I mean 0:03:14.196 --> 0:03:16.476 I remember sitting on the e ring of the Pentagon 0:03:16.596 --> 0:03:21.236 watching YouTube videos of drones, you know, first of all, 0:03:21.316 --> 0:03:24.636 quad copters flying around, you know, first sinkly, then in pairs, 0:03:24.756 --> 0:03:28.116 then doing dances, and it was really easy to imagine 0:03:29.036 --> 0:03:31.556 that at some point in the future those drones could 0:03:31.596 --> 0:03:35.756 themselves also be carrying payloads of various kinds. And not 0:03:35.796 --> 0:03:38.876 only that, but I mean these are drones that you know, 0:03:38.916 --> 0:03:41.316 you could order on Amazon, right, they were a few 0:03:41.436 --> 0:03:46.396 hundred dollars, so they were incredibly inexpensive to begin experimenting with. 0:03:46.516 --> 0:03:51.636 So all the ingredients were there for a complete revolution 0:03:52.076 --> 0:03:56.756 in the tools with which which war could be fought, 0:03:57.516 --> 0:04:00.876 and they came together kind of all at once in 0:04:00.916 --> 0:04:08.156 a way when Russian armored columns began and advancing in Ukraine. Right. 0:04:08.316 --> 0:04:10.796 I mean, it's it's kind of easy to forget now, 0:04:10.836 --> 0:04:15.316 but it at the time when Russia invaded Ukraine, seems 0:04:15.356 --> 0:04:19.556 like the basic conventional wisdom was, oh, giant country with 0:04:19.596 --> 0:04:23.676 a huge army invading, They're going to win in a week. 0:04:24.236 --> 0:04:28.116 And that didn't happen. I mean, what what role did 0:04:28.556 --> 0:04:32.236 this sort of new set of technologies play in allowing 0:04:32.316 --> 0:04:33.756 Ukraine to defend itself. 0:04:34.596 --> 0:04:37.756 Well, you know that the technologies actually came into play 0:04:37.836 --> 0:04:42.596 even before the invasion commenced. And one of the most 0:04:42.676 --> 0:04:45.196 visible ways that came into play is I mean, this 0:04:45.276 --> 0:04:47.596 is the first war in a way where there's so 0:04:47.716 --> 0:04:53.236 many private imagery companies that have their own satellite constellations 0:04:53.236 --> 0:04:56.636 that are beaming back to Earth high resolution imagery, resolution 0:04:56.756 --> 0:04:59.116 of the order of what would have been, you know, 0:04:59.396 --> 0:05:03.316 a Cold War spy satellite just a few years ago. Uh. 0:05:03.556 --> 0:05:07.756 And this this importantly, this, these images weren't just going 0:05:07.836 --> 0:05:10.396 to you know, the US government or to other militaries. 0:05:10.396 --> 0:05:13.196 They were available to anybody that wanted to see them. 0:05:13.956 --> 0:05:18.756 And so when Putin and the Kremlin was issuing statements 0:05:18.756 --> 0:05:21.276 to the effect that no, they weren't going to invade Ukraine, 0:05:21.316 --> 0:05:24.316 in fact, they were demobilizing the Russian military and preparing 0:05:24.356 --> 0:05:29.516 to ship material back to Russia. By rail. The Biden 0:05:29.516 --> 0:05:34.716 administration was able to release commercial imagery that showed no, 0:05:34.916 --> 0:05:38.556 in fact, there's armored columns lining up on the border 0:05:38.996 --> 0:05:39.556 ready to go. 0:05:40.196 --> 0:05:42.356 Uh huh. I mean the fact that it was commercial 0:05:42.396 --> 0:05:45.316 means you didn't even need the Biden administration, right like 0:05:45.476 --> 0:05:49.276 anybody who paid for a subscription could see that the 0:05:49.356 --> 0:05:50.596 Russian tanks were there. 0:05:50.476 --> 0:05:55.556 Right exactly, and so and this carried on. Then so 0:05:55.596 --> 0:06:01.396 the invasion begins and the Ukrainians not only have eyes 0:06:01.436 --> 0:06:06.356 and ears from this commercial data fees, not just imagery, 0:06:06.436 --> 0:06:11.716 but also radio frequency intelligence, and that gets paired quickly 0:06:11.796 --> 0:06:15.876 with starlink at a moment when you know, the Russians 0:06:15.876 --> 0:06:18.836 are using very advanced cyber attacks to attempt to take 0:06:18.876 --> 0:06:21.476 down not only the Internet in Ukraine, but also the 0:06:21.476 --> 0:06:25.516 command and control structure of the Ukrainian military. And what 0:06:26.036 --> 0:06:29.356 then happened next was really quite unique and amazing. The 0:06:29.876 --> 0:06:36.276 Ukrainian government had become quite adept at offering digital services 0:06:36.316 --> 0:06:39.676 to its citizens, both through online websites and through a 0:06:39.716 --> 0:06:43.556 smartphone app that the government built. In fact, Zelensky actually 0:06:43.636 --> 0:06:47.756 campaigned as a somebody who would bring in a new 0:06:47.836 --> 0:06:51.956 generation of digital services, whether it was taxes or you know, 0:06:51.996 --> 0:06:56.636 the ability to incorporate online. So the Ukrainian government very 0:06:56.716 --> 0:07:01.036 quickly reconfigure a smartphone app that Ukrainians used every day 0:07:01.116 --> 0:07:04.956 in their ordinary lives to allow Ukrainians to be able 0:07:04.996 --> 0:07:07.236 to send in spot reports of you know, I just 0:07:07.276 --> 0:07:10.076 saw a tank column moving past my town. 0:07:10.436 --> 0:07:12.556 You basically just pull out your phone and open your 0:07:12.596 --> 0:07:16.236 app and instead of whatever, calling an uber, you say, 0:07:16.356 --> 0:07:17.316 I just saw a tank. 0:07:17.476 --> 0:07:20.876 Well, yeah, so the nickname for this became Uber for artillery. 0:07:21.476 --> 0:07:25.796 It literally was possible for citizens to file a spot 0:07:25.876 --> 0:07:29.196 report that went right away to a command center in 0:07:29.236 --> 0:07:33.596 the Ministry of Defense, and artillery and other weapons were 0:07:33.596 --> 0:07:35.836 literally dispatched on that information. 0:07:36.516 --> 0:07:41.036 So, okay, So that's the sort of initial state of play. 0:07:41.676 --> 0:07:44.316 And then there's this evolution, right it seems like it's 0:07:44.396 --> 0:07:47.356 three years from now, a long time. There has been 0:07:47.396 --> 0:07:54.036 this really intense yeah, evolution, innovation right on both sides. 0:07:54.276 --> 0:07:57.396 Talk to me about that. How has how has technology 0:07:57.516 --> 0:08:00.716 driven this sort of rapid evolution of war fighting over 0:08:00.756 --> 0:08:01.636 the last few years. 0:08:02.156 --> 0:08:06.676 Well, Ukraine has been described the Ukrainian military has been described, 0:08:06.916 --> 0:08:09.436 you know, as a as a military that already came 0:08:09.476 --> 0:08:13.956 with a silicon valley wing attached to it because Ukraine 0:08:14.516 --> 0:08:18.636 over the last two decades has redefined itself as a 0:08:18.676 --> 0:08:23.036 country of programmers. It has a large endemic IT industry 0:08:23.796 --> 0:08:27.036 that was there before the war, and the Ukrainian government 0:08:27.076 --> 0:08:31.316 was really smart in that it mobilized, of course, military 0:08:31.356 --> 0:08:34.476 age males to serve It really is a citizen army 0:08:34.516 --> 0:08:37.636 in that respect, but it took anybody that had engineering 0:08:37.716 --> 0:08:42.116 or programming skills and it allowed them either to work 0:08:42.156 --> 0:08:45.596 for a private company developing technology or to work for 0:08:45.636 --> 0:08:49.996 the military developing technology. And so from the first weeks 0:08:49.996 --> 0:08:55.276 of the war you had an incredible number of engineers 0:08:55.516 --> 0:09:01.956 spitballing on how to develop indigenous technology that could take 0:09:01.996 --> 0:09:04.316 on the Russians. And this mattered because as soon as 0:09:04.356 --> 0:09:08.836 the Russians got their advanced electronic warfare systems to the 0:09:08.876 --> 0:09:12.316 front and move them forward and turn them on even 0:09:12.516 --> 0:09:16.116 advanced Western drones that either Ukraine already had in this 0:09:16.196 --> 0:09:18.516 inventory or rushed in and the opening weeks of the 0:09:18.516 --> 0:09:23.716 war became essentially ineffective because they were not programmed nor 0:09:23.756 --> 0:09:26.476 did they have the sensors on them to be able 0:09:26.556 --> 0:09:31.556 to defeat the extremely advanced Russian countermeasures that were immediately 0:09:31.636 --> 0:09:31.996 rolled out. 0:09:32.036 --> 0:09:34.956 So the Russians were essentially jamming the drones in some way. 0:09:34.996 --> 0:09:38.436 They had some kind of technology that rendered sort of 0:09:38.436 --> 0:09:43.116 off the shelf or even military grade drones ineffective. 0:09:43.356 --> 0:09:46.596 The jamming was so powerful that if you were in 0:09:46.756 --> 0:09:49.556 Kiev and you say you were on the third or 0:09:49.596 --> 0:09:51.836 fourth form of a hotel and you tried to order 0:09:51.996 --> 0:09:57.476 an uber your location on the map in the Uber app, 0:09:57.476 --> 0:09:59.676 which show up in the middle of the Indian Ocean. 0:10:00.036 --> 0:10:04.396 Because the GPS jamming was so effective that even in cities, 0:10:04.796 --> 0:10:07.356 it wasn't possible to pick up a reliable signal that 0:10:07.396 --> 0:10:10.276 you know, cities that were hundred miles from the front. 0:10:10.956 --> 0:10:16.076 So at the front, the electromagnetic spectrum was just flooded 0:10:16.116 --> 0:10:21.956 with energy and that caused right away, it touched off 0:10:21.996 --> 0:10:28.596 this technology race to invent drones that could essentially fly 0:10:28.716 --> 0:10:33.236 on their own, even through incredibly intense jamming. And so 0:10:33.316 --> 0:10:36.236 the Ukrainians and it was remarkable to go see when 0:10:36.716 --> 0:10:38.596 my co author Radshaw and I got a chance to 0:10:38.676 --> 0:10:43.556 visit Ukraine a year and a half ago, we went 0:10:43.676 --> 0:10:47.116 to a number of drone companies and they have essentially 0:10:47.276 --> 0:10:51.196 the Ukrainians in a matter of months, recreated the entire 0:10:51.836 --> 0:10:56.556 American Cold War precision strike complex that we first got 0:10:56.556 --> 0:11:00.516 to know so well in the original Gulf War, where 0:11:00.556 --> 0:11:03.756 we all of a sudden were dropping bombs down chimneys. 0:11:03.796 --> 0:11:08.836 So the Ukrainians have an essence, used a combination of 0:11:09.196 --> 0:11:15.236 open source software and low cost hardware to recreate everything 0:11:15.356 --> 0:11:19.396 from the function of our a wax planes. These are 0:11:19.476 --> 0:11:24.076 the airline looking airplanes with the giant raidardomes on top 0:11:24.196 --> 0:11:27.996 that provide a kind of God's eye view of the battlefield. 0:11:28.316 --> 0:11:31.356 So they literally have drones whose sole purpose is to 0:11:31.436 --> 0:11:35.596 keep track of large parts of the battlefield to other 0:11:36.356 --> 0:11:41.956 smaller surveillance drones that will go take pictures of a 0:11:41.996 --> 0:11:46.116 specific area that the Ukrainians want to target. They'll relay 0:11:46.156 --> 0:11:49.316 that imagery back kind of almost like miniature YouTube spy 0:11:49.596 --> 0:11:54.076 planes flying and dropping film canisters and whatnot, and they'll 0:11:54.156 --> 0:11:57.356 quickly be able to then load the images of Russian 0:11:57.356 --> 0:12:01.916 targets that they want to hit up onto killer drones 0:12:02.236 --> 0:12:06.156 that will then use image recognition and terrain following software 0:12:06.956 --> 0:12:11.556 to go hunt and find the target. It's with fully 0:12:11.796 --> 0:12:14.756 you know autonomy on fully autonomous routes right that don't 0:12:14.796 --> 0:12:18.436 require phoning home for them either to navigate or have 0:12:18.476 --> 0:12:22.036 permission to engage. On top of that, you actually have 0:12:22.116 --> 0:12:26.196 the Ukrainians using open source software to fuse different sensor streams, 0:12:26.276 --> 0:12:29.876 so you can have a Ukrainian commander that on a 0:12:29.916 --> 0:12:33.596 tablet computer in front of them has data feeds from 0:12:33.876 --> 0:12:37.516 surveillance drones that that are relaying video in real time 0:12:37.676 --> 0:12:45.916 to maps of the electronic warfare spectrum. You know. So 0:12:45.996 --> 0:12:48.756 it's really incredible what they've been able to do for 0:12:49.316 --> 0:12:52.956 essentially pennies on the dollar of what the American military 0:12:53.076 --> 0:12:56.076 is spent to recreate the same technological stack. 0:12:56.836 --> 0:12:59.316 So you went to Ukraine a year and a half 0:12:59.396 --> 0:13:02.356 ago or so. You mentioned a couple of the places 0:13:02.396 --> 0:13:04.956 you visited. One of them is sort of a had 0:13:04.996 --> 0:13:08.196 been the Ukrainian version of like best Buy right and 0:13:08.316 --> 0:13:10.356 had been transfer warmed. Tell me about that. 0:13:11.116 --> 0:13:14.636 Yeah, it was wild running around the city of Kiev 0:13:15.516 --> 0:13:19.756 visiting a number of the places that the government had 0:13:19.796 --> 0:13:23.356 commandeered for the war effort. And so one of these 0:13:23.356 --> 0:13:26.836 places was an all literal you know, Ukraine's version of 0:13:26.876 --> 0:13:29.356 Best Buy, a big box store essentially on the wall 0:13:29.396 --> 0:13:33.916 were still signed saying you know, televisions, appliances, you know, 0:13:34.036 --> 0:13:37.316 there were ads for washing machines, you know, on the walls, 0:13:37.356 --> 0:13:39.276 like walking to the Best Buy, but instead of there 0:13:39.316 --> 0:13:41.356 being a whole bunch of electronics for you to buy, 0:13:42.116 --> 0:13:45.356 there were benches, work benches laid out in an assembly 0:13:45.436 --> 0:13:50.636 a line style rows and this particular electronics store was 0:13:50.676 --> 0:13:55.356 being used to mass produce quad copter Kamakazi drones. So 0:13:55.676 --> 0:13:58.036 at one end of the assembly line you would start 0:13:58.076 --> 0:14:01.796 with the frame of the drone and by the time 0:14:01.796 --> 0:14:03.396 he got to the other end, you would have a 0:14:03.476 --> 0:14:07.916 completely working drone with communications software ready to be mated 0:14:08.516 --> 0:14:13.396 with either an anti personnel charge or a shaped charge 0:14:13.476 --> 0:14:16.076 to go through armor, you know, a couple of kilogram 0:14:16.196 --> 0:14:20.076 charge that would create these inexpensive mass produced quad copters 0:14:20.116 --> 0:14:21.716 into quite potent weapons. 0:14:23.116 --> 0:14:25.996 When you say a charge, should I think bomb? It's 0:14:26.076 --> 0:14:27.276 basically a little. 0:14:27.036 --> 0:14:29.196 Bomb, right, yeah, larger than a grenade. 0:14:29.396 --> 0:14:32.956 Yeah. And then it would so go out to the 0:14:32.956 --> 0:14:34.756 front and they'd put the bomb on it and they'd 0:14:35.036 --> 0:14:38.596 go crash it into a Russian tank or something like that. 0:14:38.996 --> 0:14:42.356 They sure would. And this goes back to the incredibly 0:14:44.276 --> 0:14:48.156 novel hybrid warfare that we're seeing in Ukraine, where yes, 0:14:48.316 --> 0:14:51.956 there are you know, in many respects, the war in 0:14:52.076 --> 0:14:55.156 Ukraine is a. There is a lot of continuities with 0:14:55.196 --> 0:14:57.596 the First and the Second World War. There are trench lines, 0:14:57.636 --> 0:15:01.636 there is artillery, there are tanks and mechanize differenttry that 0:15:01.876 --> 0:15:04.756 are moving around. But at the same time in the 0:15:04.836 --> 0:15:08.716 trenches are drone pilots and they are launching armed drones 0:15:08.756 --> 0:15:14.196 and sense drones that are watching enemy movements behind enemy lines. 0:15:14.276 --> 0:15:18.116 And so the battle you know in World War One 0:15:18.196 --> 0:15:21.236 or World War Two typically happened at the front where 0:15:21.316 --> 0:15:25.356 forces actually came into contact with one another. Today, Joan 0:15:25.356 --> 0:15:27.956 Wolfire is pushing the battle behind the front. 0:15:28.396 --> 0:15:31.036 It makes the front sort of more porous exactly. 0:15:31.156 --> 0:15:35.156 So if you were, example, you know, a Russian armor unit, 0:15:35.196 --> 0:15:39.156 and you're trying to advance into Ukrainian territory, you have 0:15:39.236 --> 0:15:43.276 to bring your tanks and your armored personal carriers with 0:15:43.396 --> 0:15:47.396 your infantry towards the front. Well, the Ukrainian has gone 0:15:47.396 --> 0:15:51.156 in the habit of using their inexpensive kamikaze drones to 0:15:51.236 --> 0:15:54.756 loiter and track armored personal carriers, and at the moment 0:15:54.876 --> 0:15:58.076 at which troops would disembark the armored personal carrier to 0:15:58.716 --> 0:16:03.676 move towards the front, they would strike. So this you know, 0:16:03.796 --> 0:16:07.396 lawn range or sort of short range precisions. Strike has 0:16:07.476 --> 0:16:11.036 completely changed how the war is being fought. It's being 0:16:11.076 --> 0:16:13.756 fought unlike any other war in modern times. 0:16:14.476 --> 0:16:16.196 So the war has been going on for a few years. 0:16:16.956 --> 0:16:20.636 Both Russia and Ukraine have clearly been learning and you know, 0:16:20.716 --> 0:16:23.996 developing new technology at this incredibly rapid pace. How does 0:16:24.036 --> 0:16:27.116 the war in Ukraine look different now than it did 0:16:27.676 --> 0:16:30.396 three years ago or two years ago shortly after it started. 0:16:31.196 --> 0:16:34.116 Yeah, well, we're you know, back to a place that's 0:16:35.476 --> 0:16:39.236 a well known place to historians, to military historians, where 0:16:40.156 --> 0:16:46.276 you know, there was an initial explosion of conflict in 0:16:46.316 --> 0:16:51.876 the in the confused invasion, where massive Russian armored columns 0:16:52.196 --> 0:16:54.276 rushed in at multiple points in the country. They were 0:16:54.316 --> 0:16:58.756 ultimately beaten back to a certain point. Those lines, you know, 0:16:59.236 --> 0:17:04.036 over time came to freeze. Because each side has very 0:17:04.076 --> 0:17:10.076 potent precision strike weapons, it's very hard to change those lines. 0:17:10.116 --> 0:17:13.476 In other words, the defense in a way has an advantage. 0:17:14.476 --> 0:17:18.716 It's very very hard to use offensive mass to gain territory, 0:17:18.756 --> 0:17:22.436 which is why we've seen the battle lines not shift 0:17:22.596 --> 0:17:25.276 all that much after they settled in the initial months 0:17:25.276 --> 0:17:27.716 of the year. But what's going on behind them has 0:17:27.716 --> 0:17:34.796 been this incredible combat through cycles of innovation, who can 0:17:35.316 --> 0:17:38.516 come up with better electronic countermeasures, who can come up 0:17:38.556 --> 0:17:41.396 with the next generation of drones that will defeat them? 0:17:41.636 --> 0:17:43.796 And so both the Russians and the Ukrainians have been 0:17:43.836 --> 0:17:48.596 innovating behind the front lines and then bringing that technology forward. 0:17:48.836 --> 0:17:51.396 Does the world look different in some way now than 0:17:51.436 --> 0:17:52.956 it did a couple of years ago? Or is it 0:17:52.996 --> 0:17:56.716 different on such a subtle level, like the gpsgmming is 0:17:56.756 --> 0:17:58.836 better and the countermeasures are better, and so the net 0:17:58.836 --> 0:18:01.316 effect is the same. 0:18:02.236 --> 0:18:06.116 I say, it's different in pretty dramatic ways. So today 0:18:06.956 --> 0:18:12.076 there are such effect of small scale Kamakazi drones that 0:18:12.796 --> 0:18:18.156 they can effectively hunt individuals. So we are truly today 0:18:18.316 --> 0:18:22.556 in a black Mere episode where if you're a civilian 0:18:22.876 --> 0:18:26.516 at a border city near the front, or a soldier 0:18:27.236 --> 0:18:30.876 at the front, you are in danger of every time 0:18:30.916 --> 0:18:34.916 you leave the bunker or leave your house literally being 0:18:34.956 --> 0:18:37.036 pursued by a drone that's trying to kill you. 0:18:37.156 --> 0:18:39.876 I mean, how do you survive a kamakazi drone attack? 0:18:40.356 --> 0:18:44.556 You essentially have to take cover and so oftentimes you 0:18:44.596 --> 0:18:48.916 know the sound of a drone buzzing, you know, And 0:18:48.956 --> 0:18:51.316 this is a challenge, right because on every square mile 0:18:51.356 --> 0:18:54.756 of the front, they're probably a dozen or more drones 0:18:54.796 --> 0:18:56.396 in the air at any given time. 0:18:56.756 --> 0:18:59.196 So if you're fighting this where there's basically always a 0:18:59.276 --> 0:19:01.796 drone flying over your head and maybe it's coming to 0:19:01.916 --> 0:19:04.476 kill you personally, and maybe it's not. 0:19:04.876 --> 0:19:09.756 The airspace on both sides of the lines incredibly overrun 0:19:09.916 --> 0:19:12.676 with drones. I mean they are literally smacking it to 0:19:12.796 --> 0:19:15.996 each other in the air. It's like flocks of birds 0:19:16.076 --> 0:19:19.756 at this point. So so no, the changes we're seeing, frankly, 0:19:19.916 --> 0:19:22.316 are not subtle at all. They're quite dramatic. 0:19:22.956 --> 0:19:26.276 So what does the US learn from the war in Ukraine. 0:19:27.156 --> 0:19:29.516 It's woken the United States and our allies up in 0:19:29.796 --> 0:19:33.516 two very profound ways. The first is that, you know, 0:19:33.516 --> 0:19:38.316 it turns out we had not been stockpiling adequate material 0:19:38.596 --> 0:19:41.836 for war, whether it was howards to shells or anti 0:19:41.876 --> 0:19:48.276 tank missiles or sophisticated rockets we had basically you know, 0:19:48.396 --> 0:19:50.876 ran to the storage cupboard and found it to be 0:19:50.996 --> 0:19:54.836 almost bare. And that's very alarming. You know, it happened 0:19:54.836 --> 0:19:57.436 because of course munitions, when the budget gets tired, it's 0:19:57.476 --> 0:19:59.676 easy to say, oh, we'll buy more next year. So 0:19:59.716 --> 0:20:01.836 that's how we ended up in that situation. So we 0:20:02.236 --> 0:20:05.636 discovered a crisis actually of military readiness on our side, 0:20:05.956 --> 0:20:09.196 and we discovered a manufacturing base more than that that 0:20:09.476 --> 0:20:13.236 was not easily able to be mobilized because many factories 0:20:13.236 --> 0:20:16.476 that produce these weapons had been idle for years or 0:20:16.516 --> 0:20:19.756 even shuttered. And in a world in which supply chains 0:20:19.796 --> 0:20:23.276 are threatened globally, if you can't assume the seas are 0:20:23.316 --> 0:20:25.156 going to be saved for transit, you have to be 0:20:25.196 --> 0:20:30.556 able to manufacture this weaponry within your borders. But there 0:20:30.636 --> 0:20:33.076 was an even more profound wake up call, and let's 0:20:33.116 --> 0:20:35.876 just go back to the use of Kamakazi drones. We 0:20:35.996 --> 0:20:39.476 gave the Ukrainians very early in the war and one 0:20:39.636 --> 0:20:43.236 A one Abraham's battle tanks. These are the most sophisticated 0:20:43.316 --> 0:20:47.276 battle tank in the world. We've all seen pictures of them. 0:20:48.196 --> 0:20:50.476 You can be driving down the highway in an Abram's 0:20:50.796 --> 0:20:52.756 battle tank at seventy miles an hour and you can 0:20:52.756 --> 0:20:55.516 decide which window of a skyscraper to put around through them. 0:20:55.556 --> 0:20:58.956 It's an incredible piece of hardware. And almost all thirty 0:20:58.956 --> 0:21:01.996 one of those tanks have been destroyed or disabled by 0:21:02.076 --> 0:21:05.156 Russian Kamakazi drones that each cost no more than a 0:21:05.156 --> 0:21:06.396 few thousand dollars a piece. 0:21:07.076 --> 0:21:09.956 And what's the tank cost the tankst. 0:21:09.436 --> 0:21:11.756 Oh gosh, I don't know, twelve or fifteen million dollars 0:21:11.836 --> 0:21:16.596 or maybe more. So that tells me another military strategist, 0:21:17.276 --> 0:21:21.996 that if you're an army who bought a lot of tanks, 0:21:22.116 --> 0:21:25.836 and you presume that your military strength comes from those tanks, 0:21:26.436 --> 0:21:29.916 you could easily be surprised by an adversary using really 0:21:29.956 --> 0:21:32.876 an expensive Kama Coze drones. In other words, the era 0:21:34.236 --> 0:21:37.676 of manned mechanized warfare is over. In the same way 0:21:37.716 --> 0:21:41.116 that during the First World War, tanks showed us that 0:21:41.156 --> 0:21:43.956 the cavalry age was coming to a close, we are 0:21:43.996 --> 0:21:46.916 now at the end of the era of the battle tank. 0:21:47.676 --> 0:21:51.596 So you're sayings, tanks now are about as useful as 0:21:51.596 --> 0:21:59.836 horses were in nineteen fifteen. Yes, what do we do 0:21:59.916 --> 0:22:03.276 about that? What does that mean for the United States? 0:22:04.356 --> 0:22:11.276 Well, the reason why my cousin I wrote a book 0:22:11.356 --> 0:22:14.556 all about just how far behind the US military finds 0:22:14.596 --> 0:22:21.476 itself is that this phenomena of less expensive technology overcoming 0:22:22.476 --> 0:22:25.556 legacy weapons systems, you know, the sort of building blocks 0:22:25.596 --> 0:22:29.116 of the Cold War American military isn't true just for tanks, 0:22:29.676 --> 0:22:32.316 And in fact we're already seeing this in Ukraine, where 0:22:32.316 --> 0:22:36.436 the Russian black sea fleet is today being kept in 0:22:36.636 --> 0:22:44.716 port by Ukrainians ingenious use of autonomous boats that are 0:22:45.316 --> 0:22:50.196 carrying payloads of high explosives that have rammed in and 0:22:50.276 --> 0:22:54.396 sunk the largest Russian ship, the Moskova on the black seat. 0:22:55.076 --> 0:22:58.796 So the naval strategists called the Russian fleet now being 0:22:58.836 --> 0:23:01.276 a fleet in being, it's a fleet kept in port 0:23:01.716 --> 0:23:05.596 because of cheap autonomous technology. So, in other words, many 0:23:05.636 --> 0:23:12.556 of the Americans most powerful militaries systems, aircraft carriers, battle tanks, 0:23:12.636 --> 0:23:16.716 battleships may now no longer be as effective as they 0:23:16.756 --> 0:23:18.756 were just a few years ago. 0:23:19.116 --> 0:23:22.076 I mean so in terms of changing the equilibrium. Is 0:23:22.076 --> 0:23:26.116 the effect of essentially autonomous technology drones and then ship 0:23:26.196 --> 0:23:31.036 drones to give more power to countries with less money. 0:23:31.956 --> 0:23:33.156 Is that one effect? 0:23:33.396 --> 0:23:36.876 Well, there's two effects. So the first and most obvious 0:23:36.876 --> 0:23:41.316 effect is that a country with fewer financial resources can 0:23:41.996 --> 0:23:46.836 amass larger degrees of military power. But there's a second 0:23:46.836 --> 0:23:51.316 and more insidious effect, which is that militaries are inherently 0:23:51.356 --> 0:23:55.876 conservative institutions for a couple of reasons. One, war is 0:23:55.916 --> 0:24:00.676 a very unforgiving teacher. And it's almost impossible through just 0:24:00.756 --> 0:24:04.676 simulations alone to actually replicate combat conditions. And so you 0:24:04.756 --> 0:24:07.636 can test, you can test new systems all you want, 0:24:07.676 --> 0:24:09.676 but you won't actually have the com evident. So they're 0:24:09.676 --> 0:24:11.156 going to work in the way you suspect them to 0:24:11.636 --> 0:24:13.476 work or want them to work until you go to war. 0:24:14.116 --> 0:24:18.196 So this is what leads militaries to almost always perpetually 0:24:18.236 --> 0:24:21.636 be overfocused on winning the last war rather than winning 0:24:21.676 --> 0:24:23.036 the war. That's the cop. 0:24:26.236 --> 0:24:28.796 Still to come on the show. Why the US military 0:24:28.956 --> 0:24:31.436 is not ready to fight a war right now according 0:24:31.436 --> 0:24:45.476 to Chris, and what it might take to change that. So, okay, 0:24:45.516 --> 0:24:48.236 there is this problem right the US military is not 0:24:48.396 --> 0:24:51.556 really keeping up with technological change. And this is a 0:24:51.596 --> 0:24:54.396 problem that Christopher has been working on for a while now. 0:24:54.796 --> 0:24:56.836 It's a key part of the reason he was tapped 0:24:56.876 --> 0:25:00.396 to help launch the Defense Innovation Unit back in twenty sixteen, 0:25:01.316 --> 0:25:03.236 and to kind of set the scene here right to 0:25:03.236 --> 0:25:05.876 give a sense of what he and his colleagues were 0:25:05.916 --> 0:25:08.076 up against, what they were trying to change when they 0:25:08.156 --> 0:25:11.756 launched the Defense Inovation Unit. I asked Christopher about this 0:25:11.876 --> 0:25:14.876 story that he and his co author tell in their book, 0:25:15.436 --> 0:25:18.036 it's the story of something they saw at the US 0:25:18.076 --> 0:25:22.276 military's Combined Air Operations Center in Katar. 0:25:22.956 --> 0:25:27.876 So the Combined Air Operations Center is this nerve center 0:25:28.036 --> 0:25:31.996 that is in charge of running all air operations in 0:25:32.076 --> 0:25:35.356 the Middle East in an area that's actually larger than 0:25:35.396 --> 0:25:40.396 the lower forty eight States. And so any plane, any missile, 0:25:40.956 --> 0:25:45.116 any air strike that goes on in this extraordinary piece 0:25:45.196 --> 0:25:50.316 of geography is the responsibility of a set of airmen 0:25:51.076 --> 0:25:55.076