1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 1: Everyone without health insurance is guaranteed to get it, and 2 00:00:05,920 --> 00:00:08,719 Speaker 1: everyone who likes theirs can go ahead and keep it. 3 00:00:09,280 --> 00:00:12,840 Speaker 1: We do not believe that billionaires have the right to 4 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 1: buy elections. So that was a little bit from Michael 5 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:18,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's TV ad that hit the waves over the weekend, 6 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:21,560 Speaker 1: biggest ad buy in the history of ad buys. Bernie 7 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:23,960 Speaker 1: Sanders is among Democrats who don't like the idea of 8 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:26,239 Speaker 1: billionaires jumping into the race. I don't want to talk 9 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:29,320 Speaker 1: that much about Michael Bloomberg. I think that one new 10 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 1: candidates with no shot get way too much attention, and 11 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 1: particularly if they're from New York. But a different way 12 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:39,159 Speaker 1: of going about running for the presidency I find interesting 13 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 1: and I'm happy to be talking with Mark Halpern this morning, 14 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: the author of How to Beat Trump, America's top political 15 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 1: strategists take on what it will take, and we did 16 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:50,480 Speaker 1: a long form podcast on this a couple of weeks ago, 17 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:54,760 Speaker 1: which is still available out there. Fantastic conversation as he 18 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:57,960 Speaker 1: talked to a whole bunch of strategists both sides of 19 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 1: the aisle on Ump and how good he is or 20 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:03,639 Speaker 1: isn't it running for president and what it would take 21 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:05,759 Speaker 1: to beat him anyway. Mark halpertn joins us. Now, Mark, 22 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 1: welcome to the Armstrong and Getty Show. Jack, great to 23 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 1: be back. Thank you, Hey the only And again, I 24 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 1: I just am not that interested in Michael Bloomberg. I 25 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 1: think he's got no shot. I think he gets way 26 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 1: too much attention because he was a New Yorker in 27 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 1: most media's in New York. But is there a chance 28 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 1: that a guy can jump in this late bypass? Iowa, 29 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 1: New Hampshire is the old model of running for president, 30 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 1: the old primary system soon to be an anachronism. That's 31 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 1: my question. Yeah, Jack, Look, I agree with you. I 32 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 1: think he's gotten next to no chance. And I also, 33 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:39,120 Speaker 1: although I'm a resident of Gotham City, I agree that 34 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:42,480 Speaker 1: there's way too much focus on New Yorkers disproportionately. I 35 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:45,040 Speaker 1: will say this, I think the greatest impact he can 36 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 1: have on this race is he can make Elizabeth Warren 37 00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 1: the nominee because he's going to spend a lot of money. Uh, 38 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 1: and he's gonna have to take down Joe Biden and 39 00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 1: Pete Bouda judge if he's gonna have any chance, and 40 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 1: he's going to spend an unprecedented amount of money. So 41 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 1: I agree with you, he almost certainly won't be the nominee. 42 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 1: I don't even think he'll be a player, because I 43 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 1: don't think you can skip the first fourth states. But 44 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 1: I do think by dividing the moderate vote, he's going 45 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:10,359 Speaker 1: to make it more likely that Elizabeth Warren Meanes becomes 46 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 1: a nominee. Every four years, we get emails, we get 47 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 1: calls from people saying why does Iowa play such a 48 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: role in choosing their candidates? Why does it and why 49 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:23,239 Speaker 1: does it still? Yeah, look, I've talked to so many 50 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 1: Californians about this and say, you know, it's not a 51 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,400 Speaker 1: diverse state, it's not a large state. It's biggest city, 52 00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 1: Des Moines. Uh. You know, I don't know how many 53 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 1: how many cities in California are bigger than De Moine, 54 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 1: but plenty of them are. The reason why is which 55 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 1: is legit is they spend time meeting candidates. Uh, you 56 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 1: know in California, as you know, politicians spend most of 57 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,360 Speaker 1: their time making TV ads and raising money. In Iowa 58 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:49,519 Speaker 1: and New Hampshire above all the other states, the citizenry 59 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: takes the responsibility seriously and it puts it on a 60 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:54,799 Speaker 1: human scale. It makes it so you have to look 61 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: real people in the eye, real Americans and say here's 62 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:01,960 Speaker 1: what you want to do. It's not fair they're disproportionately influential, 63 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:05,080 Speaker 1: but there's a trade off here because we lead islands 64 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:08,400 Speaker 1: and people from New Hampshire granted status, do the kind 65 00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 1: of calling of the process that that I think is important. 66 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: I wish they were more diverse states. I wish they 67 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:16,679 Speaker 1: were more representative of the country, but unfortunately that's the 68 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 1: system that we have. It's not perfect, but I do 69 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 1: think it's better than just having the big states decide 70 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 1: through TV ads. We're talking to Mark Halpern. He's got 71 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 1: the book How to Beat Trump, and I'll tell you 72 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:28,640 Speaker 1: it's the best political book out there, I think, mostly 73 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 1: because it's not designed on one side or the other 74 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 1: to just appeal to a certain crowd. It's just a 75 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 1: really interesting book about what's going on with politics right now. 76 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 1: Um So on Iowa. Again, I've always liked the idea 77 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 1: of the small states. It's just it's a focus group. 78 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 1: It's getting together as big a focus group as you 79 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:48,560 Speaker 1: can manage and actually, you know, meet the voters and 80 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 1: that sort of thing. The diversity is a problem is 81 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 1: the fact that Pete Buda Ji has got zero percent 82 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: of the black vote in South Carolina. Anything he needs 83 00:03:56,840 --> 00:04:00,040 Speaker 1: to worry about or can turn around, well, I start it. 84 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: Needs to worry about it because he's not going to 85 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 1: be the Democratic nominee of the President the United States 86 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 1: if he doesn't get get more acquainted with African American voters. 87 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: The reality is he's done well fundraising, he's done well 88 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 1: getting national press, but he's focused most of attention on 89 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:16,560 Speaker 1: those first two states and and and look, people are 90 00:04:16,560 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 1: focused on his lack of appeal right now to African 91 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 1: American voters. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren aren't doing much better. 92 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 1: Joe Biden is really dominating there, although he's doing poorly. 93 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 1: And I went to Hampshire, so I think if the 94 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 1: Bottages finishes high first, second, maybe even third, and I 95 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 1: win New Hampshire, I think South Carolina voters, I think 96 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:38,279 Speaker 1: voters in the first Western primary caucuses, rather, we'll we'll 97 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 1: look at him, and I think he can do better 98 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 1: than he's doing now with with non white voters. And 99 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:45,479 Speaker 1: he has to do better, and he knows that. But 100 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:47,920 Speaker 1: he struggled so far mightily to to to break through 101 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 1: in part because he's not he's not he's not known 102 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 1: by those people, and despite his fundraising, it's very difficult 103 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 1: to get known by people in those states. Right now, 104 00:04:56,680 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 1: that debate last week made no news, didn't get very gratings. 105 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 1: Of course, you got impeachment going on, that's part of it, 106 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:05,599 Speaker 1: but nothing happened during the debate either. How come the 107 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,720 Speaker 1: other candidates didn't take on Bud and think, here we 108 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:12,160 Speaker 1: got to bring this guy down. Well, I think although 109 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: although they've been praised in some quarters, I didn't think 110 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 1: the question is very good. That that that that that 111 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:19,160 Speaker 1: they didn't They didn't lay the ground work to let 112 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:22,239 Speaker 1: the candidates have a robust debate Number one. Number two, 113 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 1: I think that people have studied history and in crowded 114 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 1: nomination fights Canada day attacks candidate be. It may hurt 115 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: candidate BE, but historically it does not help Candida today. 116 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 1: When you attack somebody, you basically you blow yourself up 117 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 1: while you're blowing somebody else up, and that lets some 118 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 1: other candidates C or D benefit. So it's it's difficult 119 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:46,479 Speaker 1: to say how you're gonna leave private over someone if 120 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 1: you don't go negative on them, or you don't highlight 121 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 1: the contrast between you. But right now, even though we're 122 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:54,000 Speaker 1: you know, a couple of months away from the voting, 123 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 1: these candidates are still cautious. They don't want to hurt 124 00:05:57,240 --> 00:05:59,920 Speaker 1: themselves through negative attacks. And there's no doubt the mood 125 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 1: amongst Democratic voters almost anybody a tux who will say, 126 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 1: we want to win, and what they don't want is 127 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:09,840 Speaker 1: a nominee who's so roughed up that all Donald Trump 128 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 1: has to do is repeat the lines that were used 129 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 1: to attack the person who becomes the eventual nominee. So 130 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 1: that's part of it as well. They really are committed 131 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:18,960 Speaker 1: to winning and know and they know that if they 132 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 1: go after the other people in this field, they run 133 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:24,280 Speaker 1: the risk of being blamed, as some blame Bernie Sanders 134 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:27,479 Speaker 1: for four years ago for really roughing up the eventual nominee. 135 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:31,360 Speaker 1: Can can Elizabeth Warren get away with completely changing her 136 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 1: position on Medicare for all and walking it back that far? 137 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 1: You mean, what she's done already or if she becomes 138 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 1: the nominee, if she well, either way, are the other 139 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 1: candidates gonna let her get away with it during the 140 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 1: race and if she becomes the nominee, won't the original 141 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 1: quotes just being ads all over the country. Yeah, I 142 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 1: think her current position is is kind of ridiculous to 143 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 1: say I'm for I'm for single pay healthcare, but I'm 144 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:56,160 Speaker 1: gonna pass it in my third year in office. Again, 145 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:58,359 Speaker 1: if you look at history, there's no precedent for that. 146 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 1: So I think she's still, you know, gonna be tagged 147 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:03,359 Speaker 1: by people who think taking a private health insurance away 148 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:06,800 Speaker 1: from million people is a bad idea, And she's going 149 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 1: to get less credit from people who want single payer, 150 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:11,240 Speaker 1: who say, come on, Bernie Sanders says he'll do this 151 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 1: in his first year. Why why would you only do 152 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 1: it in your third year. So I don't think her 153 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 1: position is substantively is realistic. I don't think it's politically smart. 154 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 1: As for whether she could go back more towards the 155 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: center if she if she became the nominee, I think 156 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 1: it's impossible. I don't I think the days of people 157 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 1: being able to kind of change their positions in the 158 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 1: general election with YouTube and Twitter and and Instagram and 159 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:33,720 Speaker 1: everything else, I just think I just think it's impossible. 160 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 1: I think she I think she also believes in single 161 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:37,440 Speaker 1: pair and she's gonna be running on it. If she's 162 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:39,880 Speaker 1: the nominee, and there are people around the President Trump 163 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 1: who say, if the Democratic nominee is for single payer, 164 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 1: our chances of winning this thing go up astronomically. Well, 165 00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 1: I would agree with that. Um. Well, the politics of 166 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 1: impeachment right now? Where are you on that? Nancy Pelos? 167 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:55,680 Speaker 1: Who was right? Donald Trump is not going to be 168 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 1: convicted by the Senate and it is probably gonna help 169 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 1: him politically right now out I think he get every 170 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 1: vote in the House from the Republicans. He might even 171 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 1: get some Democrats to vote to not to afford the 172 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 1: articles of impeachment to the Senate. And there's no indications 173 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:13,360 Speaker 1: that a single Republican Senator on the current evidence would 174 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 1: impeach him. Now, one thing that thinks I thinks not 175 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:18,240 Speaker 1: disgusted enough is what are going to be in the 176 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 1: articles of impeachment? Will it be restricted to things that 177 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 1: the presidents accused of related to Ukraine? Or might they 178 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:27,000 Speaker 1: bring back the Mulla report? Might they bring up the 179 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 1: fact that he's not released his tax returns. There's there's 180 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 1: all sorts of things that some Democrats are tempted to 181 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:33,960 Speaker 1: put in there. I believe whatever they put in there, 182 00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 1: you know, what he did with Ukraine is outrageous, and 183 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:40,319 Speaker 1: there are plenty of Republicans in Congress who think it's outrageous, 184 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 1: and some who will say so, but they are not 185 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 1: going to slit their own political risk by impeaching the 186 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 1: president and then convicting him on the current evidence. So 187 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,920 Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi resisted this for such a long time because 188 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:56,960 Speaker 1: she knew that this would probably drive the party further 189 00:08:57,040 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 1: to left, polarize the two parties even more, and let 190 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:01,719 Speaker 1: Donald Trump take a victory laugh at the end of 191 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 1: the thing, saying, once again he is he is exonerated. 192 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 1: It won't it won't be true, but it will be 193 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 1: politically true. Allow him to say it. So I think, 194 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 1: I think that I see why the Democrats, on principle 195 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:16,079 Speaker 1: wanted to do it. But I think Nancy Pelosi's original 196 00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 1: instincts were correct. But she's kicking herself. We've all had 197 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:21,719 Speaker 1: those moments in life where we we are instincts are 198 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:23,520 Speaker 1: telling us something, and then somehow we go the other 199 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 1: direction and then we think we knew it. Why was 200 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 1: I knew it? My instincts told me this, and I 201 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:30,559 Speaker 1: ignored my instincts. I'll bet that's what she's screaming in 202 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 1: her office. Yeah, I think when she pulled the trigger 203 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: on it, she knew that it was still a mistake. 204 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:38,439 Speaker 1: But the problem was the pressure within the Democratic Party, 205 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 1: particularly in the congressional wing at the Democratic Party was overwhelming, 206 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:44,080 Speaker 1: and she would have started to lose control of the 207 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 1: party had she not gone forward with it. And I 208 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 1: think she's tried to work with Adam Schiff, another California member, 209 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 1: to to to make this as as dignified as possible, 210 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 1: to make it as as serious as possible. But you know, 211 00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 1: the people, people in the press are so pro impeachment 212 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 1: for the most part that they they they kind of 213 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: play down the ways this has been a failure. The 214 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 1: ratings have been horrible. I mean they're they're not as 215 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:11,680 Speaker 1: high as they were for the Kabinaugh hearings. The American 216 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 1: people are rightly or wrongly, I mean, that was nothing 217 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:20,440 Speaker 1: compared to impeaching in a president. Yeah, people are not 218 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:23,320 Speaker 1: engaged in this, even Democrats. A lot of Democrats aren't 219 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 1: engaged in it. They should be. It's important, it's historic, 220 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,720 Speaker 1: but they're not engaged in it. And so Nancy Pelosi 221 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 1: said publicly and she believed it in her heart. You 222 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 1: cannot impeach in president in a partisan manner. That's not 223 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 1: the right way to do it. This is right now 224 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 1: lining up to be a completely partisan vote. And as 225 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:42,319 Speaker 1: I said, her biggest fear was this would make the 226 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:46,040 Speaker 1: president more formidable for reelection than he already was. And 227 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 1: I think she was writing, how big a deal is 228 00:10:48,400 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 1: it that that Bernie and Elizabeth won't be on the 229 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 1: campaign trail if the Senates doing their trial at the 230 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:56,439 Speaker 1: same time. It's a pretty big deal because you know, 231 00:10:56,960 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 1: as we said earlier in our conversation, I ones and 232 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 1: people in New Hampshire expect the candidates to look at 233 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 1: them face to face. Now it'll be somewhat of an 234 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:07,439 Speaker 1: excused absence people. People won't know why they're not there. 235 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: But it's gonna allow Joe Biden and people Bootagees to campaign. 236 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:14,200 Speaker 1: You know, Mayor pee Botages his mayor of South Bend. 237 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 1: His term is actually up in early January, so although 238 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:19,720 Speaker 1: he's not sent much time in South Bend, he'll be 239 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:23,000 Speaker 1: completely free to campaign. And I think that those senators 240 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:24,840 Speaker 1: are gonna be are going to be at a disadvantage, 241 00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 1: not only because they won't be able to be on 242 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 1: those in those states they won't be able to be 243 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 1: in the Super Tuesday states like California, they won't be 244 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 1: able to spend much time fundraising. They'll be locked down. 245 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:34,720 Speaker 1: It will have it, it will have an impact on 246 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 1: the race, but they're they're gonna have to rely on 247 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 1: their staff and their surrogates and and maybe TV appearances 248 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:42,160 Speaker 1: back into those states to try to take advantage of 249 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 1: that platform. But remember senators don't speak during the impeachment hearing, 250 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:47,520 Speaker 1: so they're gonna spend most of their days just sitting 251 00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 1: there in silence, and that's unlikely to win them a 252 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 1: single vote in Iowa. The book is How to Beat 253 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 1: Trump by Mark Halpern, and it's the best political book 254 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 1: out there right now on the current state of politics. 255 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:01,080 Speaker 1: It's not pro Trump, it's not antisup. It's just really 256 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:04,160 Speaker 1: interesting analysis of what's going on. Mark Halprin, thanks for 257 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:06,679 Speaker 1: your time, Thanks for agreeing with my mom that it's 258 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 1: the best book. Bet you. I really do think it 259 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:12,320 Speaker 1: is the best political book out there right now on 260 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 1: the state of politics, partially because he talked to strategists 261 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 1: on the right and the left and just quotes what 262 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 1: they say, and they all think Trump is most likely 263 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 1: gonna win, and as he was just saying, I think 264 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:23,959 Speaker 1: impeachment's gonna help him win, which is damned interesting. And 265 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 1: we're hopefully gonna be talking to Mark on a on 266 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:29,240 Speaker 1: a semi regular basis throughout the election. I always really 267 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:31,080 Speaker 1: like his analysis. I thought it was interesting that he 268 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:33,720 Speaker 1: thought the questions were bad for the debate. I've seen 269 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:36,319 Speaker 1: that burble up a couple of places now and people 270 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 1: making some really interesting points on that.