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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm Sean Zerillo, joined

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Speaker 2: today by Action contributor and former professional MMA fighter Billy Ward.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna talk UFC Vegas fifty one card taking place

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Speaker 2: on ESPN five point thirty start for the prelimbs, the

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Speaker 2: ugliest card imaginable that they could have put a national TV.

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Speaker 2: Maybe they're experimenting seeing how many people will tune in

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Speaker 2: if they give you the least interesting fights possible. But

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Speaker 2: we do have a very good main event on Saturday

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Speaker 2: between balah Mohammad and Vicente Luce, a rematch from UFC

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Speaker 2: two O two I believe when Connor McGregor won and

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Speaker 2: became the second or the first actually double champion UFC history,

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Speaker 2: defeating Leddie Alvarez at Madison Square Garden. Now, this is

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Speaker 2: twelve fights ago for both Luke and balal Mohammed. Both

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Speaker 2: of these guys have adapted and changed a lot of

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Speaker 2: fighters since that time. We are getting a rematched. Luke

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Speaker 2: put him out in ninety seconds with a left hook

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Speaker 2: the first time. Around five round main event on Saturday.

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Speaker 2: Very interesting considering the amount of hate that bal Mohamma

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Speaker 2: tends to get and how violent of a finisher Vicente

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Speaker 2: Luka is now. Luke has a bunch of front headlocks,

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Speaker 2: chokes and a condas different darses that he can slip

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Speaker 2: into and slip on Muhammed as he tries to grapple

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Speaker 2: and make this fight dirty when these guys are range.

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Speaker 2: Luca should be the more dangerous striker as he looked

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Speaker 2: in the first fight, but he tends to get hit

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Speaker 2: a lot, turns his fight into brawls. I could see

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Speaker 2: the volume being relatively close if this fight ends up

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Speaker 2: going twenty five minutes, and a decision could be a

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Speaker 2: bit hairy with Ballall potentially mixing in more takedowns, but

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Speaker 2: Luca should have the more significant strikes. I believe Ballall

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Speaker 2: has the most significant strikes landed in the UFC history

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Speaker 2: without recording a knockdown, so it shows you the discrepancy

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Speaker 2: and the power there. But he can make this fight dirty,

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Speaker 2: press him up against the cage, and I think being

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Speaker 2: in the small cage at the APEX is going to

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Speaker 2: help him a lot, as it did against Stephen Thompson.

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Speaker 2: So maybe Ballall can make this fight dirty, turn it

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Speaker 2: into a grind kind of see these main events go

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Speaker 2: at a bit slower of a pace than the other

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Speaker 2: fights on the card as well. My personal favorite bet here,

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Speaker 2: I'm taking the over two and a half rounds at

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Speaker 2: minus two forty five. This is just up over minus

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Speaker 2: two hundred some books, it's minus one forty five. At Caesars.

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Speaker 2: I believe they have the over three and a half

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Speaker 2: at minus one thirty five, so I don't really get

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Speaker 2: that ten cent differential between the over two and a

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Speaker 2: half and the over three and a half. I projected

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Speaker 2: this fight to go the distance at plus one fifteen,

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Speaker 2: can get plus one twenty five's out there. I can

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Speaker 2: see a late finishing happening one guy tires out early

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Speaker 2: in the fight. That Luke finish is always going to

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Speaker 2: be there. I think Luke is inside the distance sides

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Speaker 2: are interesting. Projected that around plus one twenty five, and

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Speaker 2: I set the law's decision line around plus two to sixty.

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Speaker 2: So that's even worth a dabble with the over two

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Speaker 2: and a half. I think it's a sweet spot for

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Speaker 2: this fight, just avoids the late finish. Like I said,

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Speaker 2: that Luke finished early is always going to be there. Billy,

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Speaker 2: I think we have pretty similar reads on this fight. Actually,

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Speaker 2: we talked about the fact that we were both leaning

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Speaker 2: to Luka early. I might have switched sides. I might

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Speaker 2: be leaning to the wall on the money line if

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Speaker 2: I had to take a side. Curious if your opinion

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Speaker 2: has changed at all and how you're playing this fight.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm still if I had to bet a money line,

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Speaker 3: it would still definitely be Luk. If you look at

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Speaker 3: a lot of the rematch data, the younger fighter wins

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Speaker 3: well over sixty percent of the time, and the fighter

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Speaker 3: who won the first fight wins at a pretty good clip.

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Speaker 4: Both of those are Luk.

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Speaker 3: In this one, So just trusting that, and you know,

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Speaker 3: they've both looked pretty similar, both looked pretty good since then.

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Speaker 4: But the extended fight makes it.

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Speaker 3: A lot harder for Muhammed to grind him out for

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Speaker 3: twenty five minutes when he doesn't really have that finishing

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Speaker 3: ability you pointed out. You know, you have the most

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Speaker 3: significant strikes with never recording a knockdown. His significant strikes

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Speaker 3: mostly come on the ground, but he never really looks

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Speaker 3: like he's trying to finish the guy. He's trying to

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Speaker 3: do damage, but he's not really you know, working for

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Speaker 3: the finish. So you got to do that for twenty

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Speaker 3: five minutes where luke and leads to land one punch

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Speaker 3: or one submission, and Mohammed doesn't even look for submissions

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Speaker 3: when it does get to the ground. So Luk can

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Speaker 3: win a decision a lot more easily than Muhammad can

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Speaker 3: win a finish. So just with both of that, I'm

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Speaker 3: comfortable lay in the minus one seventy or so on Luk.

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Speaker 3: But my absolute favorite bet is it to go the

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Speaker 3: distance at plus one ten. I like Muhammad's defense. I

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Speaker 3: think as he gets hurt, he'll be able to latch on,

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Speaker 3: slow things down, still lose the round, but save himself

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Speaker 3: from getting knocked out. So I think that's you can

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Speaker 3: get as high as almost plus one twenty depending on

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Speaker 3: what book I wrote down plus one ten earlier.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, fight the fight.

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Speaker 3: To go to the distance is my favorite of those,

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Speaker 3: just because I can see Luk winning that way, but

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Speaker 3: I can't really see Mohammad winning the stoppage.

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Speaker 2: Goes the distance plus one twenty five at betting and GM,

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Speaker 2: which is a pretty good number. I said, I projected

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Speaker 2: that closer to plus one fifteen. And yeah, Butllall's generally

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Speaker 2: been durable aside from the fight against Luke and I

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Speaker 2: feel that people tend to see the second fight going

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Speaker 2: the same as the first fight in the exact same manner,

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Speaker 2: you know, regardless of the winner, more often than not,

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Speaker 2: which is why the odds tend to get a little

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Speaker 2: bit skewed. So I agree. I think this is probably

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Speaker 2: going to be an extended fight, maybe there's a late finish,

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Speaker 2: but not really sure how either guy's cardio is going

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Speaker 2: to hold up down the stretch, which is why I

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Speaker 2: took the over instead of the goes the distance. Let's

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Speaker 2: talk about our favorite underdogs for the card. This actually

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Speaker 2: carved with some massive, massive underdogs. I didn't take a

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Speaker 2: shot on any of the ones that are in that

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Speaker 2: plus three hundred plus four hundred range. We saw al

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Speaker 2: Jamain Sterning cash Al Jamaine Sterling cash last week around

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Speaker 2: plus three sixty to retain his bantamweight title. Yes, I

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Speaker 2: know it sounds weird to say retain. I'm taking Kyle

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Speaker 2: Bihio this week in the comain event. Plus one fifteen

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Speaker 2: at bet MGM projected this fight as a pickam even money,

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Speaker 2: and I also like the fight to go the distance.

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Speaker 2: Plus one thirty at Bette Rivers projected that prop actually

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Speaker 2: around minus one twenty, so I think that that line

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Speaker 2: should be flipped. Personally, it shouldn't be plus money. You

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Speaker 2: should be laying juice on that fight to go the distance.

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Speaker 2: He's facing Godza Gadze Omergadzia. Both of these guys coming

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Speaker 2: off the Contender series. We're really not going to learn

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Speaker 2: much about either guy relative to current UFC fighters, but

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Speaker 2: we'll figure out which one is better between them, and

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Speaker 2: Kyle is just the more well rounded fighter. Brazilian jiu

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Speaker 2: jitsu black belt should be able to get up off

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Speaker 2: of his back. We haven't seen him there for extended periods,

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Speaker 2: but I'm confident that he knows what he's doing on

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Speaker 2: the ground, and if they're striking, I'm very confident that

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Speaker 2: he's the superior striker, much more technical, probably has more power.

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Speaker 2: I really don't know what Godzi has in extending striking exchanges,

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Speaker 2: so I basically I see Kyo as the more well

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Speaker 2: rounded fighter, likely winning in two of the three phases

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Speaker 2: where Omergadziev needs to fight a perfect fight hold you

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Speaker 2: down for fifteen minutes, decision equity is probably the only

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Speaker 2: way that he's going to win the fight. Kyo, I

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Speaker 2: can see finishing, but more likely by decision, which is

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Speaker 2: why I'm splitting what that goes to decision prop Billy,

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Speaker 2: I believe you're also on KYO. I know you're doing

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Speaker 2: a write up for it that will go on Action

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Speaker 2: Network dot com. Tell me your thoughts in that fight

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Speaker 2: and then give me your favorite underdog tonight.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I am absolutely with you on that one, pretty much

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Speaker 3: along with every everything you've said. The one thing I

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Speaker 3: did want to point out, I think he's got like

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Speaker 3: a four or four and a half inch to reach advantage,

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Speaker 3: which isn't as big of a deal in the small

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Speaker 3: cage at the Apex, but still it makes it hard

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Speaker 3: if you know we're gonna have to shoot in from

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Speaker 3: a long distance and you're contending with that much of

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Speaker 3: a reach discrepancy, he could get clipped on the way

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Speaker 3: in and put out. So I'm not so much on

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Speaker 3: the goes to a decision. I think both guys are

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Speaker 3: looking for a finish pretty hard. But Gadzi have The

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Speaker 3: one thing that bothered me a little bit about him

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Speaker 3: and his contended Sheries fight is he had top position

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Speaker 3: and rolled for a knee bar, which is super high risk.

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Speaker 3: It's a low probability submission and if you don't get it,

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Speaker 3: you're in a bad spot.

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Speaker 4: He got away with it there, I don't think he

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Speaker 4: does against Kyo.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you're gonna end up on bottom and just lose

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Speaker 2: minutes that We saw that Siril Gandhu that to Francis

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Speaker 2: and Gato and that's probably why he lost the fifth round.

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Speaker 3: And Kyle looks to be more than happy to just

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Speaker 3: beat you up when he's on top and not really

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Speaker 3: sacrifice position to go for stuff. If you look at

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Speaker 3: his submission history, it's a lot of like armed trongles,

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Speaker 3: rear naked show stuff like that, where you're still maintaining

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Speaker 3: top positions, so if you don't get it, you're not

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Speaker 3: losing out as much. I like his grappling style, which

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Speaker 3: is that was a really long way to say that,

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Speaker 3: but I appreciate that from him too, So I see

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Speaker 3: him potentially getting a finish.

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Speaker 4: I'm just betting the kay on money line like it.

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Speaker 2: And you're you're taking a look at at William Knight

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Speaker 2: in the odd heavyweight fight against Devin Clark. Both of

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Speaker 2: these guys used to fight at light heavyweight. Devin Clark

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Speaker 2: actually used to be a middleweight Knight sitting around plus

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Speaker 2: one fifty, tell me why you like him?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I just can't quit William Knight. I probably need

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Speaker 3: to stop here, but you know, he just looks so powerful.

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Speaker 3: He's got so much strength, and he's a really underrated

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Speaker 3: and really strong grappler. Like this is a guy that

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Speaker 3: people think of just coming to try to knock you out,

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Speaker 3: but he competes in some.

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Speaker 4: High level grappling stuff.

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Speaker 3: Clark has I think two submission losses in his last

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Speaker 3: five fights. You know, Clark is willing to force the grappling,

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Speaker 3: but I don't know that that's a good idea against Knight.

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Speaker 3: And then the power just scrapancy is just so huge.

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Speaker 3: Clark has below average knockdown rate for like any fighter.

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Speaker 3: But then when you look at you know, stepping up

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Speaker 3: against a really big, strong guy who is looking to

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Speaker 3: take your head off. This just strikes me as a

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Speaker 3: fight where Clark has to win fifteen minutes, Knight has

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Speaker 3: to win half of a second with a pun chor submission.

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Speaker 3: So plus one fifty or so I'm willing to take

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Speaker 3: those odds.

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Speaker 2: Curious to see where these guys a way in. Knight

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Speaker 2: is a huge man. I can't believe he used to

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Speaker 2: cut down to two oh five, So curious how what

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Speaker 2: the weight discrepancy is post way ins. If Knight is

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Speaker 2: a big weight advantage, I certainly agree with that play

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Speaker 2: if they're more similar. I don't really love Knight's skill set.

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Speaker 2: Tends to stall out against the cage. You can kind

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Speaker 2: of control him. He's not a great grappler, but I

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Speaker 2: think he has a significant power advantage. I actually like

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Speaker 2: his knockout prop. I projected that at plus two seventy seven.

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Speaker 2: It's his most likely win condition, and Devin Clark by

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Speaker 2: decision is plus one fifteen. That's my projection. You can

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Speaker 2: get that as high as plus one forty So Clark

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Speaker 2: by decision, Night by knockout, that's probably how I'd go

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Speaker 2: about playing that fight. But I agree I wouldn't lay

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Speaker 2: juice on Devin Clark. I think Knight is the side

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Speaker 2: from moneyline perspective. Just take that knockout prop. That's probably

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Speaker 2: how he's gonna win. Let's move on to our fight

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Speaker 2: of the night. This is a weird one and we

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Speaker 2: chose it for a very specific reason. Jordan Levitt taking

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Speaker 2: on Trey Ogden. Why did we pick this fight? It's

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Speaker 2: early on the prelimbs. It's a grappler's the light. Neither

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Speaker 2: of these guys can strike well. Jordan leave It bets

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Speaker 2: on himself. If you go to bet MMA tips, the

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Speaker 2: guy has an account on there. It's a place where

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Speaker 2: you can track your bets for free, even though you

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Speaker 2: should be tracking him in the Action Network app. But

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Speaker 2: it is a place where a lot of people cap

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Speaker 2: and track their MMA bets, and Jordan leave It actually

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Speaker 2: has an account on there. And he's very intelligent about

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Speaker 2: how he bets on himself, at least how he thinks

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Speaker 2: about betting on himself. And if Jordan leave It can

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Speaker 2: do this, why can't you. He capped himself at sixty

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Speaker 2: percent for this fight. I believe he capped himself at

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Speaker 2: eighty percent for his last fight, So he tends to

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Speaker 2: He doesn't see himself as a guy who's gonna go

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Speaker 2: out and winever he fight one hundred percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: He knows his limitations, he knows what he's doing in there.

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Speaker 2: But he is a submission grappler, and at that an

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Speaker 2: opportunistic submission grappler. I actually project value on his submission

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Speaker 2: prop I project value on Ogden's decision prop. I think

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Speaker 2: if Ogden wins, it's likely going to be with top control,

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Speaker 2: better wrestler holding Levit down, maybe the better striker too.

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Speaker 2: I'm not really a fan of either of these guys striking,

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Speaker 2: but I do give Ogden more than minute winning upside.

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Speaker 2: But Levit tends to find submissions on people, and Ogden's

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Speaker 2: been submitted in the past twice by the same guy

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Speaker 2: with the same technique. It's been guillotined. Forgot how the

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Speaker 2: other one went down, but same. I mean, getting choked

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Speaker 2: by the same guy twice in a row with the

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Speaker 2: same technique is a bad look when you're going against

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Speaker 2: an opportunistic for rappler. Like Levitt projected a submission prop

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Speaker 2: closer to plus two seventy. I think I got it

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Speaker 2: at plus three eighty. Basically, I think his submission win

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Speaker 2: equity is sixty percent out of his one hundred percent

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Speaker 2: win condition, whereas the market is telling you it's about

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Speaker 2: forty five percent. So I don't really get the odds discrepancy,

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Speaker 2: considering it's very likely he wins by submission if he does.

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Speaker 2: Billy curious how you see this fight playing out. I

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Speaker 2: think it's really funny that Levitt is so intelligent about

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Speaker 2: handicapping himself to the point where he's any fighter, almost

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Speaker 2: any fighter would be like, oh, I'm gonna win this

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Speaker 2: fight one hundred percent of the time. I'm sure you

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Speaker 2: have worked with guys who sort of view everything through

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Speaker 2: that lens where they think they could beat anybody in

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Speaker 2: the world even though they have obvious limitations. Isn't it

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Speaker 2: cool that to see a fighter just being so reasonable

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Speaker 2: about his chances in a matchup.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you have to love that.

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Speaker 3: I do have to point out though he seems to

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Speaker 3: never handicap himself as an underdog, He's never gonna come

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Speaker 3: out there and say forty nine percent anything lower than that,

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Speaker 3: So we do have to take it with a grain

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Speaker 3: of salt, like, you know, this is still a guy

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Speaker 3: whose ego is.

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Speaker 4: On the line and you know cares what he's doing.

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Speaker 3: So I'm not saying we based our bets based off

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Speaker 3: love it self handicapping, but no, you have to love

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Speaker 3: the you know, range of outcomes kind of thinking and

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Speaker 3: not just I'm gonna go out there and smash this guy.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I'm I'm with you on the bets.

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Speaker 3: My favorite is just taking his money line straight up

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Speaker 3: I think to your point about why this submission is

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Speaker 3: not a greater percentage of his win condition just because

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Speaker 3: we all remember that ridiculous slam against Matt Wyman, and like,

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Speaker 3: you know, anyone out here watching this, you've probably watched

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Speaker 3: him fights with people and they kind of like WinCE

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Speaker 3: or think something hurts or whatever and get horrified by it.

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Speaker 3: That is the only time I've watched him in a

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Speaker 3: fight and gone like, oh, like, I don't know if

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Speaker 3: that should be allowed.

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Speaker 4: I've never seen a guy post up on a.

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Speaker 3: Chin and then slam you and just that kind of creativity,

300
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Speaker 3: and then you know his next win is an inverted

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Speaker 3: triangle choke. He's just trying to find finishes out of

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Speaker 3: nowhere with all kinds of different things, all kinds of techniques.

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Speaker 3: Maybe we'll see some ground and pound from him this time.

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Speaker 3: If he gets positioned or he gets you in a

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Speaker 3: triangle choke and elbows you to death, who knows. Like,

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Speaker 3: this guy's just throwing all kinds of stuff off the wall.

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Speaker 3: So I'm just gonna take the money line. He's one

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Speaker 3: of my favorite underdog players, love him for DFS for

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Speaker 3: that reason too. But yeah, I'm with you on the submission.

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Speaker 3: I just think it could go a lot of different

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Speaker 3: ways and love his favor.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't really get the odds for a guy

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Speaker 2: who looks like he's hunting for submissions and they're giving

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Speaker 2: him a decent amount of win equity by decision. But

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Speaker 2: I just don't see him trying to win minutes. It's

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Speaker 2: not really how he fights. So definitely some Levit violence

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Speaker 2: props and we'll hope NERD Squad comes through on Saturday

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Speaker 2: Night with Kyle Bojio and Jordan Levitt. Now Onto Sleeper.

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Speaker 2: Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions

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Speaker 2: of players. You probably already have a fantasy league on there.

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Speaker 2: I use it for mine. It's a game changing product

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Speaker 2: unlike anything else in the industry. And now you could

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Speaker 2: win on Sleeper by playing their new over undergame. It's

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Speaker 2: super simple. First, in any sport, choose two or more

325
00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:09,199
Speaker 2: players that you like and pick their over or under,

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00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:12,120
Speaker 2: for example a number of points in basketball or hits

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00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:14,720
Speaker 2: in baseball. Then choose the amount of money you want

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Speaker 2: to enter into the contest. If you pick correctly, you

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00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:19,960
Speaker 2: can win anywhere from two to over twenty times the

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Speaker 2: amount you put in the main reason I'm excited about

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Speaker 2: over Under on Sleeper is that it's the only app

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Speaker 2: where I can join my buddies, contest and play together.

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Speaker 2: It's got a built in group chat where I can

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Speaker 2: see and copy my friend's picks with the top of

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00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:36,200
Speaker 2: a button. It's insanely fun to write it out together.

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00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:39,240
Speaker 2: So stop what you're doing and download Sleeper now to

337
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Speaker 2: play their new over undergame. Have fun with your friends,

338
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340
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Speaker 2: download Sleeper, then use promo Code action when you deposit.

341
00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:56,440
Speaker 2: Terms and conditions apply. See Sleeper's Terms of Use for details. Okay,

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00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:59,960
Speaker 2: back to the show. Let's go to our favorite prop bets.

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Speaker 2: I'm going with the sloppiest fight on the card, potentially

344
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Speaker 2: an ugly heavyweight fight between Chris Barnett and Martin Boudai.

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Speaker 2: Boudai making his Uscadabu. I believe Chris Barnett coming off

346
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Speaker 2: of a spinning wheelkick knockout over John Valante at Madison's

347
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Speaker 2: Square Garden back in November. Barnett a big boy. We're

348
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Speaker 2: talking lightweight size five foot nine heavyweights. He's massive, he

349
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Speaker 2: moves actually pretty well for a guy his size. I

350
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Speaker 2: believe he has to cut down to get to two

351
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Speaker 2: sixty five, but he's so small it's hard to imagine

352
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Speaker 2: him controlling a bigger guy like Boudai for extended periods.

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Speaker 2: But in fact, I don't really see Boudai is the

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Speaker 2: guy who's gonna go out there and just sort of

355
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Speaker 2: one punch knockout you. I think he prefers to hold

356
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Speaker 2: you up against the cage, tire you out, slow things down,

357
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Speaker 2: and that's probably where he can have his most success here.

358
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Speaker 2: Barnett moves pretty well around the cage. Concerned about the

359
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Speaker 2: smaller octagon him potentially getting caught, but I think he

360
00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,960
Speaker 2: can move around an enough to stay out of damage

361
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Speaker 2: and then potentially get forced upgainst the cage, controlled there

362
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Speaker 2: for extended periods. So I actually like the over one

363
00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:09,080
Speaker 2: and a half here at plus money quite a bit.

364
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Speaker 2: Got plus one twenty five plus one fifteen and the

365
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Speaker 2: fight to go to a decision plus three eighty. At DraftKings,

366
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Speaker 2: I projected that line around plus three hundred, so I

367
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Speaker 2: see it finish seventy five percent of the time, but

368
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Speaker 2: I think there's enough value there. Maybe a five percent

369
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Speaker 2: edge in order to make that play at plus three

370
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Speaker 2: eighty and potentially cash it. We're definitely going to take

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Speaker 2: that over one and a half, though, is my preferred

372
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Speaker 2: bet sloppy heavyweights over one and a half's? Yeah, that's

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Speaker 2: that's the kind of bet I want to be interested in, Billy.

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Speaker 2: Where you at on props?

375
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna come back to that one because I'm

376
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Speaker 3: on that fight for best bets as well. But I'm

377
00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:46,040
Speaker 3: looking at Miguel Bieza by knockout. I'm saying it as

378
00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:48,400
Speaker 3: high as plus one eighty. You know, we've only seen

379
00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:50,880
Speaker 3: one fight from his opponent, andre I Fialo, but he

380
00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:52,880
Speaker 3: took over one hundred strikes in that fight.

381
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Speaker 4: And Bieza just has very plus power for the division.

382
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Speaker 3: So if you're gonna let him punch you one hundred

383
00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:00,480
Speaker 3: plus times over fifteen minutes, I think he finds a

384
00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:02,600
Speaker 3: way to put that one away. Neither guy really looks

385
00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:05,159
Speaker 3: to grapple very much. Fiallo didn't attempt any takedowns in

386
00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:08,600
Speaker 3: his debut. Baza has less than half per round, so

387
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Speaker 3: it seems like it's going to be a stand up fight.

388
00:17:10,840 --> 00:17:14,119
Speaker 3: It seems like Fiallo's defense is pretty bad. Bias is

389
00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:16,399
Speaker 3: a pretty active striker with plus power.

390
00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:17,800
Speaker 4: That one seems pretty easy.

391
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll have more on Baeza in our best bets section.

392
00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:24,920
Speaker 2: So a couple of teasers there without props, but we'll

393
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Speaker 2: get to those at the end with our best bets.

394
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Speaker 2: Let's talk some DFS billy interesting contests this week, because

395
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,760
Speaker 2: there's I believe four or five fighters over nine thousand,

396
00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:36,399
Speaker 2: but I'm not really interested in many of them. I like,

397
00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:38,760
Speaker 2: if we're going to go with any Mayra Buonas Silva

398
00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:40,879
Speaker 2: at ninety three hundred one, I always talk about the

399
00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,439
Speaker 2: fact that female fighters had to be her owned, and

400
00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:45,360
Speaker 2: I think she has a good chance of finishing wu

401
00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:48,760
Speaker 2: Yanan in that fight. And then Pat Sabatini ninety two

402
00:17:48,880 --> 00:17:51,439
Speaker 2: hundred go against t J. Laramie. I actually bet the

403
00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:52,800
Speaker 2: under two and a half rounds or a bet the

404
00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:54,439
Speaker 2: fight to end inside the distance. I believe it all

405
00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:57,000
Speaker 2: pick them price there also like Sabatini to win in

406
00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,959
Speaker 2: the distance at puls one twenty five still would be

407
00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:04,600
Speaker 2: my finish oriented favorites in terms of DFS plays. And

408
00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:07,840
Speaker 2: then I already mentioned Kyle Ohio. He's sitting around seventy

409
00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:09,920
Speaker 2: eight hundred and I have a moneyline bet on Jesse

410
00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:12,840
Speaker 2: Ronson as well at plus eight thousand, or he's sitting

411
00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:16,359
Speaker 2: at eight thousand dollars in the DraftKings contest, I should say, So,

412
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Speaker 2: those are probably the four fighters where I'm going to

413
00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:21,600
Speaker 2: start my lineup. We'll fill it out from there. Interested

414
00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:24,800
Speaker 2: in Kelvin Kruemick plus at seventy four hundred or maybe

415
00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:27,480
Speaker 2: Andrea LUs at seventy four hundred. Where are you tacking

416
00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,240
Speaker 2: the DFS card from top to bottom? I think it's

417
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:33,760
Speaker 2: actually like a pretty simple and small amount of variance

418
00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:35,160
Speaker 2: in terms of my lineup this week.

419
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:38,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is an ugly one, Like there's no one

420
00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:39,879
Speaker 3: I'm really excited to click in the lineup.

421
00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:42,639
Speaker 4: The one thing about Bueno Silva is even.

422
00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:44,560
Speaker 3: When she's gotten finishes in the past, she hasn't got

423
00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:47,400
Speaker 3: over one hundred DraftKings points, which at her salary makes

424
00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:49,920
Speaker 3: it really tough. I've actually, you know, made some good

425
00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,679
Speaker 3: progress following what you said about the female fighters, but

426
00:18:52,840 --> 00:18:55,199
Speaker 3: usually that's because their activity rate is just so much

427
00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:57,520
Speaker 3: higher than the mail fighters. They're in less danger, you know,

428
00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:00,000
Speaker 3: lighter weight classes throw more. They're always lighter weight class,

429
00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:03,159
Speaker 3: says Bueno Silva. Is not that she attempts strikes at

430
00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:06,240
Speaker 3: a blow average rate, and submissions don't generate as much

431
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,280
Speaker 3: total points because you usually don't get a knockdown out

432
00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:10,520
Speaker 3: of the deal and you don't get to accumulate significant

433
00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:12,040
Speaker 3: strikes long the way. So I'm kind of out on

434
00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:15,720
Speaker 3: Bueno Silva and Sabatini. It's similar. You know, we're gonna

435
00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:17,760
Speaker 3: need him to land a lot of strikes before he

436
00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,160
Speaker 3: gets the submission to pay off his salary. When you're

437
00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:22,879
Speaker 3: looking at fighters who most of their finished condition is

438
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,800
Speaker 3: a submission, they need to do something before that or get.

439
00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 4: It like right away at a top salary.

440
00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:30,159
Speaker 3: When you're paying eight thousand downs for those guys, or

441
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,960
Speaker 3: even eighty five hundred down, those are better bets.

442
00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:36,360
Speaker 4: So I'm mostly focused on, like the high eight thousand range.

443
00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:39,639
Speaker 3: We've got Baya's up there, Munior Lezez, who's facing the

444
00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:42,760
Speaker 3: replacement opponent on four days. Notice both Clark and William

445
00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:45,080
Speaker 3: Knighter in that range. That fight seems like there should

446
00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,800
Speaker 3: be a lot of damage happened both the heavyweights, the

447
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:52,160
Speaker 3: other heavyweights, the real heavyweights in Budet and Barnett. But yeah,

448
00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:54,080
Speaker 3: so you know I said last week that there's a

449
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:56,199
Speaker 3: lot of nine thousand plus fighters I'm interested in. This

450
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:58,720
Speaker 3: is the total offset. I'm not really rushing out to

451
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:00,280
Speaker 3: play any of these guys. I think I'm to have

452
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:02,600
Speaker 3: more of a balanced lineup and then finding the value

453
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:03,080
Speaker 3: in Kyo.

454
00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:06,879
Speaker 4: I think if you stay not too expensive, Kyo's the

455
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:08,600
Speaker 4: only underdog you really have to play if you keep

456
00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:09,680
Speaker 4: it balanced everywhere else.

457
00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:11,960
Speaker 2: And then I just want to talk about cash lineups

458
00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,679
Speaker 2: real quick. You always mentioned sticking both the fighters from

459
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,199
Speaker 2: the main event in there, because that averages out to

460
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:21,040
Speaker 2: sixteen two hundred, which is slightly below the average salary

461
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:23,359
Speaker 2: per fighter. I believe that bumps you up about one

462
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,879
Speaker 2: hundred bucks per fighter on the remaining slots. Are you

463
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,439
Speaker 2: going to stick both the Law and Luke in your lineups?

464
00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:30,800
Speaker 2: Or does Luke's finishing upside give you some trepidation?

465
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 4: No, this is an easy one to do that with. Really.

466
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 3: The only time I deviate from that is if there's

467
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 3: someone you just absolutely can't see winning at all, or

468
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 3: when we have multiple five round fights. But if this

469
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:44,359
Speaker 3: or any other DFS board, if one of your hitters

470
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,440
Speaker 3: you knew was going to play fourteen innings instead of nine.

471
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,919
Speaker 3: In baseball, you'd put him in there, so we know

472
00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:51,679
Speaker 3: these guys either getting the finish when or get two

473
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:55,400
Speaker 3: extra rounds cheap salaries. Neither of them are crazy expensive.

474
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 3: Because the line's relatively close, this is the easy one.

475
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:00,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we both expect that fight to the distance anyway,

476
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,280
Speaker 2: so we may get twenty five minutes of volume from

477
00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:06,479
Speaker 2: both guys, which is probably ideal, with some takedowns from

478
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:07,919
Speaker 2: Blall mixed in as well.

479
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 3: Especially on a fight where we're not expecting a ton

480
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,480
Speaker 3: of points throughout the card. That means more on a

481
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:15,359
Speaker 3: night like this, where there's not a lot of fights

482
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 3: with really long odds to stop, there's not a lot

483
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 3: of people who are excited about their volume, so it's

484
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:21,119
Speaker 3: even more impactful on a card like this.

485
00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:24,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, and if you really want to get crazy, as

486
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,359
Speaker 2: I mentioned, there's a few massive underdogs on this card

487
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,399
Speaker 2: that you may not want to bet. But if you

488
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:32,880
Speaker 2: want to get a little bit contrarian with your DFS lineups, TJ.

489
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:37,679
Speaker 2: Larrabie plus three fifty, Lena Landsberg plus three hundred, we

490
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 2: have wu Yanan at a big juicy price as well,

491
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 2: So maybe those are your very contrarian plays. I'm not

492
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,840
Speaker 2: really interested in any of them, though. All right, let's

493
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:47,800
Speaker 2: wrap it up with our best bets at the evening

494
00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:50,000
Speaker 2: we kind of tease these a little bit with our

495
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 2: best prop section. I'm going to piggyback though off of

496
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 2: what Billy gave out, which was Miguel Baya's of Iko.

497
00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna lay the money line at minus one

498
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 2: seventy with Baeza. I projected this here to minus two

499
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 2: fifteen coming off of a knockout loss to Chaos Williams

500
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 2: where he was winning the majority of the minutes. Baya's

501
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 2: great at shopping your lead legout, which he should be

502
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 2: able to do here against Andrea Fiallo. Fiallo, a pressure boxer,

503
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 2: tends to fade off after five to seven minutes. Biazas

504
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 2: should be able to do a ton of nutritional damage

505
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 2: to him, should have much more movement around the cage,

506
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 2: much more to her striking. So if it's a pure

507
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 2: kickboxing match for fifteen minutes, I still make byas a

508
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:29,480
Speaker 2: comfortable favorite, but I think he is massive grappling upside

509
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:31,920
Speaker 2: here as well. He's a black belt, fial I believe

510
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 2: is a white belt or a blue belt. If this

511
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:35,680
Speaker 2: fight hits the mat, it could be an instant sub

512
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:37,879
Speaker 2: for baias a curious to see if he takes that

513
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 2: path of least resistance, because I think he should have

514
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:41,919
Speaker 2: a much easier time of it if he can get

515
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 2: the takedown. But I said I even favor him pretty

516
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,960
Speaker 2: widely in a fifteen minute kickboxing match. May lose the

517
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 2: first round, I'd kime on bayez a live after round one,

518
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:52,919
Speaker 2: he should take over rounds two and three at a

519
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 2: pretty high clip, giving out Fialla tends to fade and

520
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:57,920
Speaker 2: he's very one dimensional. He's going to target the head

521
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 2: with punches and that's pretty much. It wasn't caught off

522
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 2: the cage while either so I'm going with Mike Galbaeza.

523
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,960
Speaker 2: I'd probably lay that up to minus two hundred projected

524
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:10,920
Speaker 2: at minus two fifteen. Billy I gave out the over

525
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 2: two or the over one and a half, I should say.

526
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 2: In Burnett and Boudai, I also said the fight to

527
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:17,439
Speaker 2: go to distance, I prefer the over one and a half.

528
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,640
Speaker 2: So for my sake, given your best bet, I'm hoping

529
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,439
Speaker 2: maybe a knockout comes in round two, round three. What

530
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:24,120
Speaker 2: do you got here?

531
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:25,639
Speaker 4: Yeah?

532
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 3: I really like the symmetry of how this played out

533
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 3: here because I'm on Martin Bouday by knockout at minus

534
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 3: one fifteen. I just don't want to lay the juice

535
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:35,199
Speaker 3: on that. But to your point with Baeza in the

536
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 3: grappling upside that we don't see a ton of, I

537
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 3: think Budai is a significantly better grappler here.

538
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 4: We didn't see a ton of on the ground grappling.

539
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,560
Speaker 3: But he was dominant against the cage against Lorenzo Hood

540
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 3: in his Contender Series fight. It looked for a second

541
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:49,359
Speaker 3: there like he was actually going to pick up at

542
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 3: tkover and knees to the thigh. And if he's able

543
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 3: to get a takedown on Barnett, they are not getting

544
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 3: back up. There's no way all you know, two hundred

545
00:23:57,040 --> 00:23:58,640
Speaker 3: and eighty two undred ninety pounds of each of them

546
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 3: are going to get back up if Die ends up

547
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 3: on top at some point in this fight. So I

548
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 3: think he's not going to be out there hunting for submissions.

549
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 3: He's probably going to beat him up even if he

550
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,879
Speaker 3: does get to the ground. But just the athleticism difference,

551
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 3: the size difference, the ability to control him against the fence,

552
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 3: like had Barnett had that not had that wheelkick knockout

553
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 3: we'd probably not see much more of him in the UFC.

554
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 3: That's going to keep him around a little bit longer.

555
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 3: I don't really think.

556
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 4: He's a UFC level guy. I think would Die proves

557
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,640
Speaker 4: that to us, and I think he does it pretty violently.

558
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 2: Forget the wheelkick knockout for Barnett, it was the front

559
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 2: flip somersault that he's landed to absolute perfection that is

560
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 2: going to keep him in the USC for a while.

561
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 2: One of my favorite NFC NFTs on the UFC strike

562
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:40,320
Speaker 2: It's worth it just for the front flip alone. It's

563
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:44,159
Speaker 2: an absolutely flawless move by guy always two hundred and

564
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:49,440
Speaker 2: sixty five pounds. Budday by knockout listed at MGM is

565
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 2: minus one fifteen and inside the distance he's actually sitting,

566
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 2: I believe it's.

567
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 4: Gonna be like minus one point.

568
00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:00,880
Speaker 2: Minus one fifty five. So yeah, Barnett submitted it. Yeah,

569
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,439
Speaker 2: Barnett submitted in his first fight with bet By Ben Rothel,

570
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 2: you mentioned the grappling upside. I actually thought you were

571
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 2: gonna go with a submission prop as opposed to the

572
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,920
Speaker 2: knockout prop. I think where we disagree on the fight

573
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:12,880
Speaker 2: it is just how long Buddai is going to hold

574
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 2: him up against the cage before he takes them down

575
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,000
Speaker 2: and finishes them. So I kind of see them staying

576
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:18,640
Speaker 2: up against the cage for a bit longer. I could

577
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,160
Speaker 2: see it being slow paced, but if he immediately takes

578
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 2: him down and knocks them out or submits him, I

579
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 2: guess I won't be too surprised. Still sloppy heavyweights, and

580
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,959
Speaker 2: when fights hit the mat, there tends to be absolute levels,

581
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 2: especially at heavyweights, so don't disagree. In a little cage,

582
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 2: big guys in a little cage is a recipe for violence,

583
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 2: and that's always worth remembering. We are in the APEX,

584
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 2: so be careful with those decision props. Finishes happen about

585
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,879
Speaker 2: ten percent more often in the APEX as opposed to

586
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 2: the thirty foot octagon that we see like last week

587
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,120
Speaker 2: at a pay per view in a big arena. Well

588
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 2: that'll do it for us for Saturday evening. Best of

589
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 2: luck on all of your MMA bets, but you can

590
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,719
Speaker 2: track in the Action Network app. You should look out

591
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 2: for our content on Action dot Com. My projections will

592
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 2: be up there, our best bets will be up there.

593
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 2: We'll have a main event and a co main event

594
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 2: preview in addition to Billy's DFS write ups on Fantasy Labs,

595
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 2: best of luck on your best this weekend and until

596
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 2: next time,