WEBVTT - NFL Week 4 Best Bets (Ep. 110) 0:00:13.800 --> 0:00:17.160 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast. I'm 0:00:17.200 --> 0:00:19.400 your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter 0:00:19.480 --> 0:00:22.680 at Dan Harris eighty. It is time to talk about 0:00:22.720 --> 0:00:26.000 our best bets for Week four of the NFL season. 0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:29.200 And back again to do it with me is Pat Fitzmorris. 0:00:29.200 --> 0:00:32.920 Find him on Twitter at fits underscore ff. Pat was 0:00:32.960 --> 0:00:35.239 here earlier this week. He's not officially my new co 0:00:35.280 --> 0:00:37.559 host or anything like that. He is pinchinitting today. Our 0:00:37.560 --> 0:00:39.320 guest had a little bit of a conflict. Pat. Thank 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:41.800 you for bin chitting on short notice. I appreciate it. 0:00:41.880 --> 0:00:43.800 My pleasure. Dan, Happy Week four to you. 0:00:44.400 --> 0:00:47.879 Yes, I'm excited. I'm ready to get into this. I 0:00:48.080 --> 0:00:50.919 feel pretty good about my three picks today and we'll 0:00:50.960 --> 0:00:52.960 talk about it. But I did get your picks in advance. 0:00:53.200 --> 0:00:55.440 You did take one of mine. It's a gross pick. 0:00:55.640 --> 0:00:57.760 I really look forward to bringing it down a little bit. 0:00:58.000 --> 0:00:59.280 But you guys know how we do this. We just 0:00:59.320 --> 0:01:02.000 give our three best to the weekend, either spreads or 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:05.320 over unders or even moneyline if we want, and then 0:01:05.360 --> 0:01:07.680 we'll quickly run through the remaining spread. Before we do it, 0:01:07.760 --> 0:01:11.280 let me remind you about the latest offer from BETMGM. 0:01:11.400 --> 0:01:14.280 New customers bet five dollars win one hundred dollars on 0:01:14.360 --> 0:01:18.199 any NFL game if either team scores a touchdown. Okay, 0:01:18.280 --> 0:01:19.720 so it doesn't have to be the team you bet on, 0:01:19.720 --> 0:01:21.920 but five dollars in either team win one hundred if 0:01:21.959 --> 0:01:24.440 either one scores a touchdown. That's pretty much going to happen. 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:26.760 That is code Juice one hundred. I've mentioned this before. 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:30.640 That is our podcast, The Daily Juice, hosted by Matt Parral. Again, 0:01:30.680 --> 0:01:33.880 the code is Juice one hundred New customers at bet MGM, 0:01:34.280 --> 0:01:36.480 All right, let's get into it. We're going to basically 0:01:36.600 --> 0:01:39.160 use our consensus lines over at bettingpros dot com that 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:41.240 gives you the aggregate of what is available in the market. 0:01:41.240 --> 0:01:44.360 There are some disparities obviously between books, which maybe we'll 0:01:44.400 --> 0:01:47.000 note if we do. You can fade or follow us 0:01:47.040 --> 0:01:49.680 or do whatever you want. Very briefly, let me run 0:01:49.720 --> 0:01:52.440 through what happened last week. Our guest at the Good 0:01:52.440 --> 0:01:55.000 News for You Pat is that the bar is incredibly low. 0:01:55.280 --> 0:01:58.080 Based on our last guest, Alex Kiloj from the Action 0:01:58.200 --> 0:02:01.040 Network actually missed on all three of his favorite bets. 0:02:01.080 --> 0:02:04.560 They were the Jaguars Cardinals over fifty two, the Bucks 0:02:04.600 --> 0:02:07.360 minus one against the Rams and the Browns and the 0:02:07.400 --> 0:02:11.040 Bears over forty two. I believe or maybe I was 0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:12.680 wrong on that, but regardless, he did miss it because 0:02:12.680 --> 0:02:14.640 that didn't come anywhere close. I hit on two of 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:17.519 the three. I had the Jets Broncos under forty one 0:02:17.560 --> 0:02:19.840 and a half, which was to me a one of 0:02:19.880 --> 0:02:21.679 my favorite bets that I've made so far this year. 0:02:21.880 --> 0:02:24.839 The Titans minus five to the Colts. I did miss 0:02:24.880 --> 0:02:26.840 on the Eagles plus three and a half to the Cowboys. 0:02:27.160 --> 0:02:31.120 I completely and utterly misread that game absolutely like that 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:33.720 was actually one of my favorite bets coming into the week. 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:35.880 So hopefully we'll do better. Bat, you get to kick 0:02:35.960 --> 0:02:37.360 us off any bet you want on the board. 0:02:37.400 --> 0:02:40.320 Go ahead, all right, Dan, I'm gonna take the Jets 0:02:40.440 --> 0:02:46.480 plus seven at home against the Titans, because who should 0:02:47.080 --> 0:02:50.560 the Titans be favored against on the road by seven points. 0:02:50.600 --> 0:02:53.720 I don't really think anyone in the NFL. I don't know. 0:02:53.800 --> 0:02:57.000 I feel like people are kind of misreading their two wins, 0:02:57.040 --> 0:03:00.120 like the Colts are not a good team. That's not 0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:05.800 a quality win, and they did have after a bad start. 0:03:06.320 --> 0:03:09.440 Their one decent win was against Seattle, although I think 0:03:09.880 --> 0:03:13.920 that Seattle defense is a lot worse than people realize. 0:03:15.240 --> 0:03:17.040 And you know, once they got it going, they look 0:03:17.080 --> 0:03:19.560 pretty good in that game. But I just don't think 0:03:19.560 --> 0:03:23.960 they're necessarily good enough to beat the Jets by more 0:03:24.000 --> 0:03:28.440 than a touchdown on the road. So I think the 0:03:28.560 --> 0:03:31.480 Jets are maybe, like, I know, things have not gone well. 0:03:31.520 --> 0:03:33.320 I know they haven't been able to keep the pass 0:03:33.400 --> 0:03:36.880 rush off. Zach Wilson, maybe you can talk me out 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:41.040 of this, Dan, if anyone can, it's you. But you know, 0:03:41.120 --> 0:03:44.680 and I think the Jets defense is actually pretty decent. 0:03:45.040 --> 0:03:48.840 And you know, I don't think Sala is going to 0:03:48.920 --> 0:03:50.560 be one of these guys who has to wait five 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:52.960 six weeks weeks for his first win. I think it's 0:03:52.960 --> 0:03:54.720 going to happen sooner rather than later. 0:03:55.280 --> 0:03:57.200 Would you take them on the money line? I should 0:03:57.200 --> 0:03:59.400 look at what the what the odds are here. I'll 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:01.800 talk about my opinions on this game in a second. 0:04:01.440 --> 0:04:03.840 But yeah, probably plus one. 0:04:05.600 --> 0:04:09.320 Oh it's more than that. It depends on the blook five. 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:14.200 Oh yeah, you're in something on that as well. 0:04:14.320 --> 0:04:17.919 Yes, if you are going for the Jets, you are 0:04:18.000 --> 0:04:21.039 probably going down the wrong road. But it's fine. This actually, Pat, 0:04:21.080 --> 0:04:22.839 I said one of the bets I was going to 0:04:22.880 --> 0:04:25.520 take with you. This is actually the bet, and I 0:04:25.560 --> 0:04:28.480 know it's ridiculous. And again, everybody knows I am a 0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:31.160 Jets fan, but everybody knows I'm sure I'm not a 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:35.120 Jets homer. It's impossible to be one. Actually, and I've 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:39.240 kind of been buying the Titans team from the basically 0:04:39.440 --> 0:04:43.560 below what I think is their actual value, the perception 0:04:43.600 --> 0:04:45.080 in the market. I think it's been a little low 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:48.120 because of that first game against Arizona when they look terrible. 0:04:48.440 --> 0:04:50.560 Week two, I had them getting I think it was 0:04:50.600 --> 0:04:53.800 five and a half against the Seahawks. Week three, again, 0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:56.000 as I mentioned, I had them laying the five to 0:04:56.160 --> 0:04:58.599 the Cults. Last week against the Cults, it was a 0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:01.400 little more fading the Colts. As you sort of mentioned 0:05:01.400 --> 0:05:04.040 that it was buying the Titans. The reason why I 0:05:04.080 --> 0:05:05.800 also like the Jets in this game. I liked it 0:05:05.800 --> 0:05:07.440 at seven and a half. Obviously, now that it's not 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:09.600 the seven, not quite as appealing. But there are a 0:05:09.640 --> 0:05:12.120 couple of reasons. Number one, let's not gloss over the 0:05:12.160 --> 0:05:15.080 fact that the Titans are probably gonna have no wide 0:05:15.120 --> 0:05:17.880 receivers in this game. Right, Aj Brown is almost certainly 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:19.920 not going to play. The latest on Julio pat On, 0:05:20.200 --> 0:05:21.800 I mean it sounds like he's not gonna play, right, 0:05:21.800 --> 0:05:24.520 he mispracticed with a hamstring injury. Right, We're not expecting 0:05:24.560 --> 0:05:26.320 him to go at this point, are we? Yeah? 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:28.600 I mean he was just like I don't know if 0:05:28.640 --> 0:05:31.000 there was an injury, but they said he tightened up 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:32.760 in the fourth court and they have not let him 0:05:32.760 --> 0:05:35.680 practice all week. So, like, I think Aj is definitely 0:05:36.000 --> 0:05:38.240 not going to play and probably trending that way with 0:05:38.360 --> 0:05:38.960 Julio two. 0:05:39.160 --> 0:05:41.080 Right, So who are we looking at it? Their number 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:44.120 one wide receiver? Is it Westbrook? Akina? Like? Is that 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:45.800 what we're actually going with at this point? 0:05:46.240 --> 0:05:52.080 Yeah? You know, Josh Reynolds, Who am I forgetting Chester Rogers. 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:54.839 It's just not an offense that's going to be able 0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:56.919 to pass the ball up and down the field. And again, 0:05:57.080 --> 0:06:00.000 their scheme isn't doesn't work quite as well without Arthur Smith, 0:06:00.200 --> 0:06:02.400 and so it's gonna be a lot of running. I 0:06:02.440 --> 0:06:04.680 don't despise the under in this game either, but it's 0:06:04.680 --> 0:06:06.720 gonna be a lot of Derek Henry and you mentioned it. 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:10.760 The Jets defense a collection of you know haves and 0:06:10.839 --> 0:06:13.840 have nots. Mostly have nots has actually played a lot 0:06:13.880 --> 0:06:16.480 better that like, their whole is greater than the some 0:06:16.640 --> 0:06:18.640 of their parts, if that makes sense. And where they 0:06:18.680 --> 0:06:22.440 really struggle is the secondary where they're playing absolute no names. 0:06:22.480 --> 0:06:26.520 But again, you've got now if Brown and or Julio Jones, 0:06:26.520 --> 0:06:27.919 we're gonna be healthy for this game. I might have 0:06:27.920 --> 0:06:29.919 a different opinion, but without them you just don't have 0:06:29.960 --> 0:06:31.839 to worry about it all that much. So it's gonna 0:06:31.839 --> 0:06:33.440 be a ton of Derek Henry and I expect them 0:06:33.440 --> 0:06:35.520 to win the game, but I don't think they're gonna 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:38.320 be able to put up a ton of points. Conversely, 0:06:38.880 --> 0:06:42.200 I think the Jets, like they have looked at terrible. 0:06:42.279 --> 0:06:46.120 I completely admit that their offensive line is abysmal. I 0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:51.720 completely get that, but they're not completely devoid of playmakers. 0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:54.359 You know, the scheme is okay. I expect Corey Davis 0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:55.920 to have a big game. I actually pat I did 0:06:55.920 --> 0:06:58.360 a video for bettingpros dot com. One of my five 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:02.479 player prop bets was Corey Davis over his receiving yards, 0:07:02.839 --> 0:07:05.159 which I think I can't remember what it was, forty 0:07:05.200 --> 0:07:06.560 eight and a half something like that. I think Cory 0:07:06.640 --> 0:07:10.240 Davis has a big game here again playing Denver. In Denver, 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:11.840 I knew that game was going to be terrible for 0:07:11.880 --> 0:07:14.000 the Jets. I really did. Like you know, they weren't 0:07:14.000 --> 0:07:17.000 getting anything going. The Patriots have a pretty solid defense. 0:07:17.240 --> 0:07:18.800 This is a game I think that the Jets are 0:07:18.800 --> 0:07:20.360 going to be able to put up points. So not 0:07:20.440 --> 0:07:22.120 a ton of points, but I think they'll be able 0:07:22.120 --> 0:07:25.040 to keep it close enough where I think if you're 0:07:25.080 --> 0:07:27.520 getting the touchdown, certainly, if any seven and a half's 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:29.640 are out there, those look to be gone. In the market, 0:07:29.640 --> 0:07:31.920 the consensus is seven, but it's all seven up and 0:07:31.960 --> 0:07:33.880 down the line. I would definitely go for it if 0:07:33.920 --> 0:07:35.520 you have the hook. But either way, this was the 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:37.360 one I was going to take bad. Oddly enough, the 0:07:37.480 --> 0:07:39.840 ugly Jets game is the one I was going to get. 0:07:39.840 --> 0:07:42.040 And I forgot that you were a Jets fanda. Believe 0:07:42.040 --> 0:07:45.040 it or not. I was not merely pandering. 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:45.680 To you with that pick. 0:07:46.120 --> 0:07:49.360 But yet you I'm glad you mentioned the receivers in 0:07:49.440 --> 0:07:51.120 my battling. That was a big part of it, because 0:07:51.120 --> 0:07:53.840 I mean, if you've got a j Brown and Julio 0:07:53.960 --> 0:07:56.720 Jones and then you're picking on this young cornerback group 0:07:56.760 --> 0:07:59.120 that has what between the six guys like two years 0:07:59.160 --> 0:08:03.440 of NFL sperience. You know, if it's like Ecoles trying 0:08:03.480 --> 0:08:07.600 to guard aj Brown, I mean different story. But yeah, 0:08:07.640 --> 0:08:12.720 with guys like Westbrook, Kakina and Reynolds and Chester Rogers, like, 0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:14.200 you're not going to be able to do as much 0:08:14.280 --> 0:08:19.240 damage with that Moley assortment of who's the who's who 0:08:19.320 --> 0:08:21.600 of Titans backup receivers. 0:08:22.040 --> 0:08:23.640 Yeah. So I just think it's going to be a 0:08:23.640 --> 0:08:25.400 closer game. And again, I do think that the Jets 0:08:25.440 --> 0:08:27.760 offense is going to look at least a little more competent. 0:08:27.800 --> 0:08:30.800 They played three tough defenses in a row here, so 0:08:31.200 --> 0:08:33.200 I think, again, I think this is something that's going 0:08:33.240 --> 0:08:34.679 to be close. I do like that you're taking them 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:36.520 on the money line. You're very clearly a Jets fan. 0:08:36.559 --> 0:08:38.199 It's fine. I will take your Packers then, and we 0:08:38.240 --> 0:08:40.160 will we will do an even swap. Totally found me, 0:08:40.480 --> 0:08:42.600 all right, So for my first game, I'm actually going 0:08:42.600 --> 0:08:45.920 with a total and it's the Ravens and the Broncos 0:08:46.000 --> 0:08:47.800 under forty five and a half. There are a lot 0:08:47.800 --> 0:08:51.199 of reasons why I like this game. Under First of all, 0:08:51.240 --> 0:08:54.040 both teams generally play slow, and I think that's something 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:56.360 always that I look at with the total as I 0:08:56.360 --> 0:08:59.120 look at the pace of play, they both play slow. Generally, 0:08:59.160 --> 0:09:01.720 they both run the a ton that's gonna just naturally 0:09:01.800 --> 0:09:03.959 bleed the clock. The Broncos are three and oh so 0:09:04.040 --> 0:09:06.120 far to the under. I mentioned that I was taking 0:09:06.200 --> 0:09:08.520 them last week against the Jets with the under that 0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:12.680 hit very easily here, and I think that even just 0:09:12.720 --> 0:09:15.200 generally taking what they look like overall, there are some 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:18.000 injury concerns here that I think also lend themselves to 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:20.400 the under. Another number one, Lamar Jackson, is banged up 0:09:20.480 --> 0:09:23.280 in this game. He took a shot in the last game, 0:09:23.320 --> 0:09:25.680 his back has been bothering him. So I think for 0:09:25.760 --> 0:09:28.240 the most part, you're gonna see it a little under control. 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:31.080 And oddly enough, both these teams take shots down the 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:33.320 field like there are two of the teams that have 0:09:33.360 --> 0:09:35.680 actually taken the most shots down the field. I think 0:09:35.679 --> 0:09:38.199 that's gonna change a little bit for both in this game, 0:09:38.400 --> 0:09:41.240 in part because Lamar Jackson is injured. In part, I 0:09:41.240 --> 0:09:43.880 think the kJ Hamler injury pat is a little bit 0:09:44.280 --> 0:09:47.160 underrated in terms of what it means for the offense. 0:09:47.400 --> 0:09:51.040 Not so much Hamdler's production, but Hamler in his ability 0:09:51.080 --> 0:09:53.679 to at least stretch the field opens up lanes. I 0:09:53.720 --> 0:09:56.640 think for Sutton and for Patrick, who don't really have 0:09:56.679 --> 0:09:59.480 that top end speed. Without that, I think it's just 0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:02.520 gonna be very, very difficult for any really explosive plays 0:10:02.720 --> 0:10:04.840 to happen for the Broncos. So it strikes me as 0:10:04.840 --> 0:10:08.920 a game of like slow methodical drives here, where you know, 0:10:08.920 --> 0:10:10.640 it's a lot of dinking and dunking. And I think 0:10:10.679 --> 0:10:13.839 the Broncos obviously defensively are very good in Denver. By 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:16.120 the way I talked about this as well, that I 0:10:16.240 --> 0:10:18.840 really think early in the season in Denver road teams 0:10:18.880 --> 0:10:22.160 in particular, they just have trouble acclimating for the first month, 0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:24.800 first four games usually where I like it because of 0:10:24.840 --> 0:10:26.760 the thin air, and I think they're just not conditioned 0:10:26.840 --> 0:10:29.000 enough to get there. At the Baltimore defense getting a 0:10:29.000 --> 0:10:31.480 little healthier, this strikes me as a slugfest. Pat I 0:10:32.000 --> 0:10:35.160 lean towards the Ravens, who I think are getting a 0:10:35.200 --> 0:10:37.600 point and a half at this point, but I'm not 0:10:37.679 --> 0:10:39.679 willing to take that. I do think, though, however, it's 0:10:39.679 --> 0:10:41.199 going to be a slug fest. It's going to be 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:43.640 a slow, drawn out game, and I lean towards the 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:45.079 underhare at forty five and a half. 0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:48.200 Yeah, I'm with you. I am actually in a bizarre 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:50.840 pool where I have to beat the Ravens games side 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:55.000 and total every week. And I did. Yeah, it's thirty 0:10:55.040 --> 0:10:58.440 two people, and you are drawn an NFL team and 0:10:58.600 --> 0:11:01.200 oh wow, I have to pick their games every week. Yes, 0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:05.080 my friend, maybe our mutual friend Michael Beller of the 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:08.520 Athletics runs this one. Yeah, and yeah, it's kind of 0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:10.480 a crazy team. I drew the Ravens. 0:11:10.760 --> 0:11:13.400 Yeah, they're getting a point. Well, what's funny. Yeah, they're 0:11:13.400 --> 0:11:15.160 getting a point. But it's all over the place. Actually, 0:11:15.240 --> 0:11:17.839 depending on the book, the consensus line is getting a point. 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:20.920 Vandal has them giving a point, fox Ben has them 0:11:20.960 --> 0:11:23.079 getting half a point. So it's a little all over 0:11:23.120 --> 0:11:23.480 the place. 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:26.880 Yeah, I think I got up. I took Denver at 0:11:26.960 --> 0:11:28.040 home getting a point. 0:11:28.520 --> 0:11:31.120 Okay, yeah, that's what the consensus line is. So you 0:11:31.200 --> 0:11:32.679 take Denver in this game. If you had to pick 0:11:32.720 --> 0:11:33.640 a side on the spread. 0:11:33.520 --> 0:11:37.599 I did. I did. I took me under. I just 0:11:37.760 --> 0:11:40.120 don't I don't think the Ravens are quite the same 0:11:40.320 --> 0:11:44.040 same team that they would have been pre uh Gus 0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:47.160 Edwards and and Marcus Peters like those were two big 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:49.840 blows for them. I just think that kind of you 0:11:49.840 --> 0:11:52.240 know up below to each side of the ball, that 0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:55.240 you know, maybe kind of took away a little bit 0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:56.439 of their underpinnings. 0:11:56.760 --> 0:11:59.240 Yep. Well, if you're going with any side in the 0:11:59.240 --> 0:12:01.840 Broncos game, head covers usually decide to go on so 0:12:01.840 --> 0:12:04.360 out right, I can't there, but I would. I would 0:12:04.520 --> 0:12:06.480 lean and again if they're getting a point, if they're 0:12:06.480 --> 0:12:09.240 giving a point, irrelevant, but I would probably go with 0:12:09.280 --> 0:12:10.839 the Ravens personally in this game. That's not one of 0:12:10.840 --> 0:12:13.240 my official pick. My only official pick is the under 0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:16.000 forty five and a half points. Again, this is about this, 0:12:16.200 --> 0:12:17.559 you know, when I looked at all the games, I 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:19.920 didn't you know, as the Lions pat to me get 0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:22.480 a little sharper going forward, Like there are a few 0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:25.440 real edges that sort of stick out to me. But 0:12:25.760 --> 0:12:28.559 this one is a game that I see really coming 0:12:28.559 --> 0:12:30.480 in it like closer to like the forty two you 0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:32.640 know mark for me anyway, So I will go with that. 0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:34.160 Let's go to your second pick. Who do you got? 0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:38.000 All right? So I like the over in the Kansas 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:41.920 City Philadelphia game, which is at fifty four. So I 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:47.320 think we saw Philadelphia run the ball with their running 0:12:47.360 --> 0:12:51.319 backs three times in their Monday night game against the Cowboys. 0:12:51.360 --> 0:12:52.800 Like I don't know if that's going to be an 0:12:52.840 --> 0:12:55.640 every week thing. There might be a great outcry to 0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:59.839 establish the run this week, but I kind of think 0:12:59.840 --> 0:13:02.240 that not the way they want to play. Their defense 0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:06.120 didn't look especially good. I think that we are due 0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:09.920 to see a more mistake free game from Patrick Mahomes 0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:12.880 and I think we talked about this earlier. Dan, the 0:13:12.960 --> 0:13:16.319 Kansas City defense is bad, Like people don't realize how 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:21.680 bad it is. They are per the Football Outsiders DVOA Metric, 0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:27.000 dead last both against the run and the pass. They 0:13:27.120 --> 0:13:31.640 have the daily double for worst defense in both facets 0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:35.559 of the game. So yeah, I think these two teams 0:13:35.640 --> 0:13:37.320 might race up and down the field a little bit. 0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:40.880 And even though I generally kind of like to stay 0:13:40.920 --> 0:13:43.439 away from any overs above like fifty two and a 0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:46.040 half fifty three, unless it's you know, two teams that 0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:49.520 I really think, you know something like we said the 0:13:49.559 --> 0:13:51.880 Mexico City game a couple of years ago, where I 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:54.959 was being confident in the over in that one. Sure, 0:13:56.120 --> 0:13:59.080 you know, generally I don't love grabbing onto those, but 0:13:59.160 --> 0:14:02.760 this one I think is going to race pretty quickly. 0:14:03.280 --> 0:14:04.719 So do you have I mean, talk to me a 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:08.280 little bit about because casey defense stinks, as we have 0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:10.400 talked about it, really it really does. And I don't 0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:13.880 think that you know, casual betters have really gotten there yet. 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:17.760 But do you feel confident then that, you know, regardless 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:19.720 of how bad they are, that the Eagles that looked 0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:22.560 like the most inept offense you know, I'd ever seen 0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:25.160 basically are going to be able to take advantage of it, 0:14:25.640 --> 0:14:27.240 you know, I guess probably in a way where they 0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:29.920 have to most likely keep up with Kansas City, right. 0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:32.160 So yeah, I think they are going to have to 0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:34.080 at least pay lip service to the running game a 0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:36.080 little more, and I think that's kind of how they 0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:38.600 should play, at least to maybe set up the play 0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:41.160 action for Hurts a little bit. I mean, their first 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:45.080 few series the other day were like interception. I think 0:14:45.120 --> 0:14:49.520 on the first series two three and outs. Then maybe 0:14:49.520 --> 0:14:51.760 on their fourth series, I think they attempted their first 0:14:51.800 --> 0:14:53.720 run and got like a twenty four yard game for 0:14:53.840 --> 0:14:54.960 Miles Sanders, and. 0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:57.640 Then you know, maybe around them again, Yeah. 0:14:57.680 --> 0:15:00.320 Maybe it hurts run after that, and then to two 0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:04.440 incompletions and another pond. I mean like they have to 0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:08.160 go about this a little bit differently, and I think 0:15:08.200 --> 0:15:13.800 they will, And I'm still pretty pro Hurts. Actually, I 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:18.040 don't think he is the type of like versatile run 0:15:18.160 --> 0:15:20.680 pass weapon who can do a lot of damage to 0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:22.520 a defense like Kansas City's. 0:15:23.280 --> 0:15:25.320 Well, I'm glad I'm not the last person on the 0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:28.920 Jalen Hurts bandwagon. I will stick with you, all right, 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:30.720 all right, So that's I mean it is. It's a 0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:32.760 high tuntal. It's fifty four I see to fifty four 0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:35.240 and a half in a lot of places, So it's 0:15:35.320 --> 0:15:37.880 gonna be a game. But rooting for offense is certainly 0:15:37.920 --> 0:15:40.720 always better. Let's get ugly. Let's continue to get ugly. 0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:40.920 Man. 0:15:40.960 --> 0:15:44.120 You took one New York team. I think I'm gonna 0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:46.280 take the other New York team. Technically, neither one of 0:15:46.320 --> 0:15:48.240 these is New York teams, obviously, as my father was 0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:50.080 used to say, they're both New Jersey teams. And there 0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:52.560 is one New York team and it is the Buffalo Bills. 0:15:52.680 --> 0:15:54.560 But I'm going to take the other New Jersey team 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:57.320 and it's the Giants getting seven and a half points 0:15:57.320 --> 0:16:00.760 from the same It's you know, I feel like when 0:16:00.760 --> 0:16:02.120 I'm taking these games and I look at it and 0:16:02.160 --> 0:16:04.240 I'm like, I think there's a little bit of value here. 0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:07.560 It's always on these terrible teams that I'm just like, 0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:09.360 all right, I gotta hold my nose and sort of 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:12.160 do it. But here's where I go. Everything about this 0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:14.800 just strikes me as a spot to take the Giants. 0:16:14.840 --> 0:16:16.960 There are a lot of reasons, not to be clear, 0:16:17.080 --> 0:16:18.720 Like when you look at it, I mean, this is 0:16:18.760 --> 0:16:21.760 the Saints' first real home game, right because they weren't 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:23.800 home obviously in Week one, so I'm sure the crowd 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:26.440 is going to be fired up. I don't expect Darius 0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:28.880 Slayton or Serling Shepherd to play in this game. Neither 0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:30.720 one has practiced so far this week, as we record 0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:34.280 that Blake Martinez is already out, their offensive line is injured. 0:16:34.320 --> 0:16:36.880 But I think in part I'm fading the Saints a 0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:39.640 little bit because, like, I know, they beat the Packers 0:16:39.680 --> 0:16:43.160 pat but obviously you're a Packers fan. That just struck 0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:47.160 me as much more about the Packers coming into that 0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:50.160 game in Florida, maybe having trouble with the heat, not 0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:53.000 really knowing what to expect, and just not bringing their 0:16:53.000 --> 0:16:54.720 a game as opposed to the Saints putting up this 0:16:54.760 --> 0:16:57.480 dominant performance. They look terrible in the second game against 0:16:57.520 --> 0:17:01.280 the Panthers, and I know they beat the they beat 0:17:01.320 --> 0:17:04.479 the Patriots handily in this last game, but you know, 0:17:04.600 --> 0:17:07.400 that game could have pretty easily gone the other way. 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:09.440 I mean, if John Smith doesn't hand the other team 0:17:09.440 --> 0:17:11.439 in interception, Jamis kind of threw the ball up in 0:17:11.480 --> 0:17:13.880 the end zone there for a touchdown. Like that game 0:17:13.960 --> 0:17:16.320 was not totally dominated by the Saints in the way 0:17:16.359 --> 0:17:18.960 that the final score sort of suggests. I mean, you 0:17:19.000 --> 0:17:20.920 look at Winston, He's averaging one hundred and twenty nine 0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:24.800 passing yards per game, Like that's crazy. The total is 0:17:24.840 --> 0:17:27.560 forty two, by the way, So I feel like, you know, 0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:29.400 I talked about this so the last week too. When 0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:31.840 you have such a low total and you have a 0:17:31.880 --> 0:17:35.320 big spread, like something doesn't really work there in my 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:38.680 opinion usually, and so I don't really think that the 0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:41.119 Saints are going to cover here. And really, when you 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:43.600 look kind of historically, especially with Daniel Jones, it is 0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:45.719 kind of where this is kind of where Daniel Jones 0:17:45.880 --> 0:17:47.800 comes out with a big one, right. A movie saw 0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:51.080 him obviously against Washington in that game. Stinks at home, 0:17:51.119 --> 0:17:54.240 but on the road he somehow is always covers ten 0:17:54.240 --> 0:17:57.320 and four in his career against the spread on the road. 0:17:57.520 --> 0:18:01.040 Winston is not good as a favorite generally speaking. Their 0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:03.480 offensive line is tough, that Armstead is going to be out. 0:18:03.840 --> 0:18:05.919 This just feels like a letdown spot for the Saints 0:18:06.000 --> 0:18:08.879 off that big win. The Giants are absolutely desperate to 0:18:08.880 --> 0:18:10.920 try to stay into it. I think given the lack 0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:13.080 of wide receivers, they're going to design some runs for them. 0:18:13.200 --> 0:18:15.560 They're gonna get Jennit Villes out. Takuon Barkley looks a 0:18:15.560 --> 0:18:18.720 lot healthier. So it's a gross but I'm getting over 0:18:18.720 --> 0:18:21.480 I feel over a touchdown here. I'm gonna hold my 0:18:21.520 --> 0:18:23.120 nose and take the Giants getting seven and a half 0:18:23.119 --> 0:18:23.679 from the Saints. 0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:26.240 Yeah, so this is any interesting one. I join you 0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:30.560 in your doubts about the Saints offense for certain. I 0:18:30.600 --> 0:18:33.760 mean that's like, I don't know if they can continue 0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:36.840