Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast. I'm
Speaker 1: your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter
Speaker 1: at Dan Harris eighty. It is time to talk about
Speaker 1: our best bets for Week four of the NFL season.
Speaker 1: And back again to do it with me is Pat Fitzmorris.
Speaker 1: Find him on Twitter at fits underscore ff. Pat was
Speaker 1: here earlier this week. He's not officially my new co
Speaker 1: host or anything like that. He is pinchinitting today. Our
Speaker 1: guest had a little bit of a conflict. Pat. Thank
Speaker 1: you for bin chitting on short notice. I appreciate it.
Speaker 2: My pleasure. Dan, Happy Week four to you.
Speaker 1: Yes, I'm excited. I'm ready to get into this. I
Speaker 1: feel pretty good about my three picks today and we'll
Speaker 1: talk about it. But I did get your picks in advance.
Speaker 1: You did take one of mine. It's a gross pick.
Speaker 1: I really look forward to bringing it down a little bit.
Speaker 1: But you guys know how we do this. We just
Speaker 1: give our three best to the weekend, either spreads or
Speaker 1: over unders or even moneyline if we want, and then
Speaker 1: we'll quickly run through the remaining spread. Before we do it,
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Speaker 1: All right, let's get into it. We're going to basically
Speaker 1: use our consensus lines over at bettingpros dot com that
Speaker 1: gives you the aggregate of what is available in the market.
Speaker 1: There are some disparities obviously between books, which maybe we'll
Speaker 1: note if we do. You can fade or follow us
Speaker 1: or do whatever you want. Very briefly, let me run
Speaker 1: through what happened last week. Our guest at the Good
Speaker 1: News for You Pat is that the bar is incredibly low.
Speaker 1: Based on our last guest, Alex Kiloj from the Action
Speaker 1: Network actually missed on all three of his favorite bets.
Speaker 1: They were the Jaguars Cardinals over fifty two, the Bucks
Speaker 1: minus one against the Rams and the Browns and the
Speaker 1: Bears over forty two. I believe or maybe I was
Speaker 1: wrong on that, but regardless, he did miss it because
Speaker 1: that didn't come anywhere close. I hit on two of
Speaker 1: the three. I had the Jets Broncos under forty one
Speaker 1: and a half, which was to me a one of
Speaker 1: my favorite bets that I've made so far this year.
Speaker 1: The Titans minus five to the Colts. I did miss
Speaker 1: on the Eagles plus three and a half to the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: I completely and utterly misread that game absolutely like that
Speaker 1: was actually one of my favorite bets coming into the week.
Speaker 1: So hopefully we'll do better. Bat, you get to kick
Speaker 1: us off any bet you want on the board.
Speaker 2: Go ahead, all right, Dan, I'm gonna take the Jets
Speaker 2: plus seven at home against the Titans, because who should
Speaker 2: the Titans be favored against on the road by seven points.
Speaker 2: I don't really think anyone in the NFL. I don't know.
Speaker 2: I feel like people are kind of misreading their two wins,
Speaker 2: like the Colts are not a good team. That's not
Speaker 2: a quality win, and they did have after a bad start.
Speaker 2: Their one decent win was against Seattle, although I think
Speaker 2: that Seattle defense is a lot worse than people realize.
Speaker 2: And you know, once they got it going, they look
Speaker 2: pretty good in that game. But I just don't think
Speaker 2: they're necessarily good enough to beat the Jets by more
Speaker 2: than a touchdown on the road. So I think the
Speaker 2: Jets are maybe, like, I know, things have not gone well.
Speaker 2: I know they haven't been able to keep the pass
Speaker 2: rush off. Zach Wilson, maybe you can talk me out
Speaker 2: of this, Dan, if anyone can, it's you. But you know,
Speaker 2: and I think the Jets defense is actually pretty decent.
Speaker 2: And you know, I don't think Sala is going to
Speaker 2: be one of these guys who has to wait five
Speaker 2: six weeks weeks for his first win. I think it's
Speaker 2: going to happen sooner rather than later.
Speaker 1: Would you take them on the money line? I should
Speaker 1: look at what the what the odds are here. I'll
Speaker 1: talk about my opinions on this game in a second.
Speaker 2: But yeah, probably plus one.
Speaker 1: Oh it's more than that. It depends on the blook five.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, you're in something on that as well.
Speaker 1: Yes, if you are going for the Jets, you are
Speaker 1: probably going down the wrong road. But it's fine. This actually, Pat,
Speaker 1: I said one of the bets I was going to
Speaker 1: take with you. This is actually the bet, and I
Speaker 1: know it's ridiculous. And again, everybody knows I am a
Speaker 1: Jets fan, but everybody knows I'm sure I'm not a
Speaker 1: Jets homer. It's impossible to be one. Actually, and I've
Speaker 1: kind of been buying the Titans team from the basically
Speaker 1: below what I think is their actual value, the perception
Speaker 1: in the market. I think it's been a little low
Speaker 1: because of that first game against Arizona when they look terrible.
Speaker 1: Week two, I had them getting I think it was
Speaker 1: five and a half against the Seahawks. Week three, again,
Speaker 1: as I mentioned, I had them laying the five to
Speaker 1: the Cults. Last week against the Cults, it was a
Speaker 1: little more fading the Colts. As you sort of mentioned
Speaker 1: that it was buying the Titans. The reason why I
Speaker 1: also like the Jets in this game. I liked it
Speaker 1: at seven and a half. Obviously, now that it's not
Speaker 1: the seven, not quite as appealing. But there are a
Speaker 1: couple of reasons. Number one, let's not gloss over the
Speaker 1: fact that the Titans are probably gonna have no wide
Speaker 1: receivers in this game. Right, Aj Brown is almost certainly
Speaker 1: not going to play. The latest on Julio pat On,
Speaker 1: I mean it sounds like he's not gonna play, right,
Speaker 1: he mispracticed with a hamstring injury. Right, We're not expecting
Speaker 1: him to go at this point, are we? Yeah?
Speaker 2: I mean he was just like I don't know if
Speaker 2: there was an injury, but they said he tightened up
Speaker 2: in the fourth court and they have not let him
Speaker 2: practice all week. So, like, I think Aj is definitely
Speaker 2: not going to play and probably trending that way with
Speaker 2: Julio two.
Speaker 1: Right, So who are we looking at it? Their number
Speaker 1: one wide receiver? Is it Westbrook? Akina? Like? Is that
Speaker 1: what we're actually going with at this point?
Speaker 2: Yeah? You know, Josh Reynolds, Who am I forgetting Chester Rogers.
Speaker 1: It's just not an offense that's going to be able
Speaker 1: to pass the ball up and down the field. And again,
Speaker 1: their scheme isn't doesn't work quite as well without Arthur Smith,
Speaker 1: and so it's gonna be a lot of running. I
Speaker 1: don't despise the under in this game either, but it's
Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of Derek Henry and you mentioned it.
Speaker 1: The Jets defense a collection of you know haves and
Speaker 1: have nots. Mostly have nots has actually played a lot
Speaker 1: better that like, their whole is greater than the some
Speaker 1: of their parts, if that makes sense. And where they
Speaker 1: really struggle is the secondary where they're playing absolute no names.
Speaker 1: But again, you've got now if Brown and or Julio Jones,
Speaker 1: we're gonna be healthy for this game. I might have
Speaker 1: a different opinion, but without them you just don't have
Speaker 1: to worry about it all that much. So it's gonna
Speaker 1: be a ton of Derek Henry and I expect them
Speaker 1: to win the game, but I don't think they're gonna
Speaker 1: be able to put up a ton of points. Conversely,
Speaker 1: I think the Jets, like they have looked at terrible.
Speaker 1: I completely admit that their offensive line is abysmal. I
Speaker 1: completely get that, but they're not completely devoid of playmakers.
Speaker 1: You know, the scheme is okay. I expect Corey Davis
Speaker 1: to have a big game. I actually pat I did
Speaker 1: a video for bettingpros dot com. One of my five
Speaker 1: player prop bets was Corey Davis over his receiving yards,
Speaker 1: which I think I can't remember what it was, forty
Speaker 1: eight and a half something like that. I think Cory
Speaker 1: Davis has a big game here again playing Denver. In Denver,
Speaker 1: I knew that game was going to be terrible for
Speaker 1: the Jets. I really did. Like you know, they weren't
Speaker 1: getting anything going. The Patriots have a pretty solid defense.
Speaker 1: This is a game I think that the Jets are
Speaker 1: going to be able to put up points. So not
Speaker 1: a ton of points, but I think they'll be able
Speaker 1: to keep it close enough where I think if you're
Speaker 1: getting the touchdown, certainly, if any seven and a half's
Speaker 1: are out there, those look to be gone. In the market,
Speaker 1: the consensus is seven, but it's all seven up and
Speaker 1: down the line. I would definitely go for it if
Speaker 1: you have the hook. But either way, this was the
Speaker 1: one I was going to take bad. Oddly enough, the
Speaker 1: ugly Jets game is the one I was going to get.
Speaker 2: And I forgot that you were a Jets fanda. Believe
Speaker 2: it or not. I was not merely pandering.
Speaker 1: To you with that pick.
Speaker 2: But yet you I'm glad you mentioned the receivers in
Speaker 2: my battling. That was a big part of it, because
Speaker 2: I mean, if you've got a j Brown and Julio
Speaker 2: Jones and then you're picking on this young cornerback group
Speaker 2: that has what between the six guys like two years
Speaker 2: of NFL sperience. You know, if it's like Ecoles trying
Speaker 2: to guard aj Brown, I mean different story. But yeah,
Speaker 2: with guys like Westbrook, Kakina and Reynolds and Chester Rogers, like,
Speaker 2: you're not going to be able to do as much
Speaker 2: damage with that Moley assortment of who's the who's who
Speaker 2: of Titans backup receivers.
Speaker 1: Yeah. So I just think it's going to be a
Speaker 1: closer game. And again, I do think that the Jets
Speaker 1: offense is going to look at least a little more competent.
Speaker 1: They played three tough defenses in a row here, so
Speaker 1: I think, again, I think this is something that's going
Speaker 1: to be close. I do like that you're taking them
Speaker 1: on the money line. You're very clearly a Jets fan.
Speaker 1: It's fine. I will take your Packers then, and we
Speaker 1: will we will do an even swap. Totally found me,
Speaker 1: all right, So for my first game, I'm actually going
Speaker 1: with a total and it's the Ravens and the Broncos
Speaker 1: under forty five and a half. There are a lot
Speaker 1: of reasons why I like this game. Under First of all,
Speaker 1: both teams generally play slow, and I think that's something
Speaker 1: always that I look at with the total as I
Speaker 1: look at the pace of play, they both play slow. Generally,
Speaker 1: they both run the a ton that's gonna just naturally
Speaker 1: bleed the clock. The Broncos are three and oh so
Speaker 1: far to the under. I mentioned that I was taking
Speaker 1: them last week against the Jets with the under that
Speaker 1: hit very easily here, and I think that even just
Speaker 1: generally taking what they look like overall, there are some
Speaker 1: injury concerns here that I think also lend themselves to
Speaker 1: the under. Another number one, Lamar Jackson, is banged up
Speaker 1: in this game. He took a shot in the last game,
Speaker 1: his back has been bothering him. So I think for
Speaker 1: the most part, you're gonna see it a little under control.
Speaker 1: And oddly enough, both these teams take shots down the
Speaker 1: field like there are two of the teams that have
Speaker 1: actually taken the most shots down the field. I think
Speaker 1: that's gonna change a little bit for both in this game,
Speaker 1: in part because Lamar Jackson is injured. In part, I
Speaker 1: think the kJ Hamler injury pat is a little bit
Speaker 1: underrated in terms of what it means for the offense.
Speaker 1: Not so much Hamdler's production, but Hamler in his ability
Speaker 1: to at least stretch the field opens up lanes. I
Speaker 1: think for Sutton and for Patrick, who don't really have
Speaker 1: that top end speed. Without that, I think it's just
Speaker 1: gonna be very, very difficult for any really explosive plays
Speaker 1: to happen for the Broncos. So it strikes me as
Speaker 1: a game of like slow methodical drives here, where you know,
Speaker 1: it's a lot of dinking and dunking. And I think
Speaker 1: the Broncos obviously defensively are very good in Denver. By
Speaker 1: the way I talked about this as well, that I
Speaker 1: really think early in the season in Denver road teams
Speaker 1: in particular, they just have trouble acclimating for the first month,
Speaker 1: first four games usually where I like it because of
Speaker 1: the thin air, and I think they're just not conditioned
Speaker 1: enough to get there. At the Baltimore defense getting a
Speaker 1: little healthier, this strikes me as a slugfest. Pat I
Speaker 1: lean towards the Ravens, who I think are getting a
Speaker 1: point and a half at this point, but I'm not
Speaker 1: willing to take that. I do think, though, however, it's
Speaker 1: going to be a slug fest. It's going to be
Speaker 1: a slow, drawn out game, and I lean towards the
Speaker 1: underhare at forty five and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you. I am actually in a bizarre
Speaker 2: pool where I have to beat the Ravens games side
Speaker 2: and total every week. And I did. Yeah, it's thirty
Speaker 2: two people, and you are drawn an NFL team and
Speaker 2: oh wow, I have to pick their games every week. Yes,
Speaker 2: my friend, maybe our mutual friend Michael Beller of the
Speaker 2: Athletics runs this one. Yeah, and yeah, it's kind of
Speaker 2: a crazy team. I drew the Ravens.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're getting a point. Well, what's funny. Yeah, they're
Speaker 1: getting a point. But it's all over the place. Actually,
Speaker 1: depending on the book, the consensus line is getting a point.
Speaker 1: Vandal has them giving a point, fox Ben has them
Speaker 1: getting half a point. So it's a little all over
Speaker 1: the place.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I got up. I took Denver at
Speaker 2: home getting a point.
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, that's what the consensus line is. So you
Speaker 1: take Denver in this game. If you had to pick
Speaker 1: a side on the spread.
Speaker 2: I did. I did. I took me under. I just
Speaker 2: don't I don't think the Ravens are quite the same
Speaker 2: same team that they would have been pre uh Gus
Speaker 2: Edwards and and Marcus Peters like those were two big
Speaker 2: blows for them. I just think that kind of you
Speaker 2: know up below to each side of the ball, that
Speaker 2: you know, maybe kind of took away a little bit
Speaker 2: of their underpinnings.
Speaker 1: Yep. Well, if you're going with any side in the
Speaker 1: Broncos game, head covers usually decide to go on so
Speaker 1: out right, I can't there, but I would. I would
Speaker 1: lean and again if they're getting a point, if they're
Speaker 1: giving a point, irrelevant, but I would probably go with
Speaker 1: the Ravens personally in this game. That's not one of
Speaker 1: my official pick. My only official pick is the under
Speaker 1: forty five and a half points. Again, this is about this,
Speaker 1: you know, when I looked at all the games, I
Speaker 1: didn't you know, as the Lions pat to me get
Speaker 1: a little sharper going forward, Like there are a few
Speaker 1: real edges that sort of stick out to me. But
Speaker 1: this one is a game that I see really coming
Speaker 1: in it like closer to like the forty two you
Speaker 1: know mark for me anyway, So I will go with that.
Speaker 1: Let's go to your second pick. Who do you got?
Speaker 2: All right? So I like the over in the Kansas
Speaker 2: City Philadelphia game, which is at fifty four. So I
Speaker 2: think we saw Philadelphia run the ball with their running
Speaker 2: backs three times in their Monday night game against the Cowboys.
Speaker 2: Like I don't know if that's going to be an
Speaker 2: every week thing. There might be a great outcry to
Speaker 2: establish the run this week, but I kind of think
Speaker 2: that not the way they want to play. Their defense
Speaker 2: didn't look especially good. I think that we are due
Speaker 2: to see a more mistake free game from Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 2: and I think we talked about this earlier. Dan, the
Speaker 2: Kansas City defense is bad, Like people don't realize how
Speaker 2: bad it is. They are per the Football Outsiders DVOA Metric,
Speaker 2: dead last both against the run and the pass. They
Speaker 2: have the daily double for worst defense in both facets
Speaker 2: of the game. So yeah, I think these two teams
Speaker 2: might race up and down the field a little bit.
Speaker 2: And even though I generally kind of like to stay
Speaker 2: away from any overs above like fifty two and a
Speaker 2: half fifty three, unless it's you know, two teams that
Speaker 2: I really think, you know something like we said the
Speaker 2: Mexico City game a couple of years ago, where I
Speaker 2: was being confident in the over in that one. Sure,
Speaker 2: you know, generally I don't love grabbing onto those, but
Speaker 2: this one I think is going to race pretty quickly.
Speaker 1: So do you have I mean, talk to me a
Speaker 1: little bit about because casey defense stinks, as we have
Speaker 1: talked about it, really it really does. And I don't
Speaker 1: think that you know, casual betters have really gotten there yet.
Speaker 1: But do you feel confident then that, you know, regardless
Speaker 1: of how bad they are, that the Eagles that looked
Speaker 1: like the most inept offense you know, I'd ever seen
Speaker 1: basically are going to be able to take advantage of it,
Speaker 1: you know, I guess probably in a way where they
Speaker 1: have to most likely keep up with Kansas City, right.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think they are going to have to
Speaker 2: at least pay lip service to the running game a
Speaker 2: little more, and I think that's kind of how they
Speaker 2: should play, at least to maybe set up the play
Speaker 2: action for Hurts a little bit. I mean, their first
Speaker 2: few series the other day were like interception. I think
Speaker 2: on the first series two three and outs. Then maybe
Speaker 2: on their fourth series, I think they attempted their first
Speaker 2: run and got like a twenty four yard game for
Speaker 2: Miles Sanders, and.
Speaker 1: Then you know, maybe around them again, Yeah.
Speaker 2: Maybe it hurts run after that, and then to two
Speaker 2: incompletions and another pond. I mean like they have to
Speaker 2: go about this a little bit differently, and I think
Speaker 2: they will, And I'm still pretty pro Hurts. Actually, I
Speaker 2: don't think he is the type of like versatile run
Speaker 2: pass weapon who can do a lot of damage to
Speaker 2: a defense like Kansas City's.
Speaker 1: Well, I'm glad I'm not the last person on the
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts bandwagon. I will stick with you, all right,
Speaker 1: all right, So that's I mean it is. It's a
Speaker 1: high tuntal. It's fifty four I see to fifty four
Speaker 1: and a half in a lot of places, So it's
Speaker 1: gonna be a game. But rooting for offense is certainly
Speaker 1: always better. Let's get ugly. Let's continue to get ugly.
Speaker 2: Man.
Speaker 1: You took one New York team. I think I'm gonna
Speaker 1: take the other New York team. Technically, neither one of
Speaker 1: these is New York teams, obviously, as my father was
Speaker 1: used to say, they're both New Jersey teams. And there
Speaker 1: is one New York team and it is the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 1: But I'm going to take the other New Jersey team
Speaker 1: and it's the Giants getting seven and a half points
Speaker 1: from the same It's you know, I feel like when
Speaker 1: I'm taking these games and I look at it and
Speaker 1: I'm like, I think there's a little bit of value here.
Speaker 1: It's always on these terrible teams that I'm just like,
Speaker 1: all right, I gotta hold my nose and sort of
Speaker 1: do it. But here's where I go. Everything about this
Speaker 1: just strikes me as a spot to take the Giants.
Speaker 1: There are a lot of reasons, not to be clear,
Speaker 1: Like when you look at it, I mean, this is
Speaker 1: the Saints' first real home game, right because they weren't
Speaker 1: home obviously in Week one, so I'm sure the crowd
Speaker 1: is going to be fired up. I don't expect Darius
Speaker 1: Slayton or Serling Shepherd to play in this game. Neither
Speaker 1: one has practiced so far this week, as we record
Speaker 1: that Blake Martinez is already out, their offensive line is injured.
Speaker 1: But I think in part I'm fading the Saints a
Speaker 1: little bit because, like, I know, they beat the Packers
Speaker 1: pat but obviously you're a Packers fan. That just struck
Speaker 1: me as much more about the Packers coming into that
Speaker 1: game in Florida, maybe having trouble with the heat, not
Speaker 1: really knowing what to expect, and just not bringing their
Speaker 1: a game as opposed to the Saints putting up this
Speaker 1: dominant performance. They look terrible in the second game against
Speaker 1: the Panthers, and I know they beat the they beat
Speaker 1: the Patriots handily in this last game, but you know,
Speaker 1: that game could have pretty easily gone the other way.
Speaker 1: I mean, if John Smith doesn't hand the other team
Speaker 1: in interception, Jamis kind of threw the ball up in
Speaker 1: the end zone there for a touchdown. Like that game
Speaker 1: was not totally dominated by the Saints in the way
Speaker 1: that the final score sort of suggests. I mean, you
Speaker 1: look at Winston, He's averaging one hundred and twenty nine
Speaker 1: passing yards per game, Like that's crazy. The total is
Speaker 1: forty two, by the way, So I feel like, you know,
Speaker 1: I talked about this so the last week too. When
Speaker 1: you have such a low total and you have a
Speaker 1: big spread, like something doesn't really work there in my
Speaker 1: opinion usually, and so I don't really think that the
Speaker 1: Saints are going to cover here. And really, when you
Speaker 1: look kind of historically, especially with Daniel Jones, it is
Speaker 1: kind of where this is kind of where Daniel Jones
Speaker 1: comes out with a big one, right. A movie saw
Speaker 1: him obviously against Washington in that game. Stinks at home,
Speaker 1: but on the road he somehow is always covers ten
Speaker 1: and four in his career against the spread on the road.
Speaker 1: Winston is not good as a favorite generally speaking. Their
Speaker 1: offensive line is tough, that Armstead is going to be out.
Speaker 1: This just feels like a letdown spot for the Saints
Speaker 1: off that big win. The Giants are absolutely desperate to
Speaker 1: try to stay into it. I think given the lack
Speaker 1: of wide receivers, they're going to design some runs for them.
Speaker 1: They're gonna get Jennit Villes out. Takuon Barkley looks a
Speaker 1: lot healthier. So it's a gross but I'm getting over
Speaker 1: I feel over a touchdown here. I'm gonna hold my
Speaker 1: nose and take the Giants getting seven and a half
Speaker 1: from the Saints.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so this is any interesting one. I join you
Speaker 2: in your doubts about the Saints offense for certain. I
Speaker 2: mean that's like, I don't know if they can continue
Speaker 2: to win this way with Jameis Winston throwing like twenty
Speaker 2: passes a game. I mean, this is the same Jameis
Speaker 2: Winston who led the NFL in passing attempts in twenty
Speaker 2: nineteen has suddenly turned into this you know, nineteen seventy
Speaker 2: six era game managing like quarterback. It's such a bizarre
Speaker 2: formula that's working for them. And I mean you mentioned
Speaker 2: the Armstead injury. I mean that's a big blow to
Speaker 2: a team that at least had, if you know, not
Speaker 2: a lot of skill position talent other than Alvin Kamara,
Speaker 2: like did have that really good offensive line, and losing
Speaker 2: a very good left tackle as a blow for sure.
Speaker 2: The one thing that gives me pause here, Dan, is
Speaker 2: that that defense looks really legitimate. Yeah, like they they're deep,
Speaker 2: I mean, like you know, overcoming the Marcus Davenport injury
Speaker 2: and stuffing a decent pass rush. And the other thing
Speaker 2: was that before I came on with you, I was
Speaker 2: looking at the Massy Peabody website and their power rankings.
Speaker 2: I was shocked to see New Orleans was second in
Speaker 2: their power rankings. And so I don't know, maybe they
Speaker 2: do buy into the offense, and maybe they do think
Speaker 2: this is a truly great defense, like the best in
Speaker 2: the NFL. I don't know, I do, but you know
Speaker 2: that gives me pause. Can Daniel Jones defeat a very
Speaker 2: good defense. That yeah, that's probably why this would be.
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily like the same side of it. I
Speaker 2: do not, but I might. It might be a stay
Speaker 2: away from me.
Speaker 1: I think totally fine. I do not expect the Giants
Speaker 1: to win this game, to be clearer, but I do
Speaker 1: think they're going to keep it close and again. And look,
Speaker 1: you know, Rufus Peabody is the best. Their stuff is
Speaker 1: fantastic when I've seen when I watched them play. Their
Speaker 1: defense is good. But it's just something where I don't
Speaker 1: know pat they and I know they've had injuries and
Speaker 1: they've just overcome it. It doesn't strike me as a total
Speaker 1: lockdown unit for me. And I think, by the way,
Speaker 1: the Jamis version of himself, like the old Jamis wants
Speaker 1: to come out right. You kind of saw it against
Speaker 1: the Panthers, Like he's just like it's just like this
Speaker 1: charging bull that's like, just let me go, man, I'm ready,
Speaker 1: I'm ready to go. Just just give me the word.
Speaker 1: And I think like if something happens, if like he
Speaker 1: throws a pick or there's a funnel and they'll fall behind,
Speaker 1: he'll come out a little bit. So you're getting the
Speaker 1: hook a little bit over the touchdown. I will take it,
Speaker 1: but it is ugly, and that's all bets. I feel
Speaker 1: like all good bets are ugly at this point. Let's
Speaker 1: get to your last one. When he got that, all.
Speaker 2: Right, So the last one is Carolina plus four at Dallas.
Speaker 2: And for me, this is about two things. For one,
Speaker 2: it's that I legitimately believe in the Carolina offense and defense.
Speaker 2: Maybe the one thing that gives me a little bit
Speaker 2: of pauses the injury to j C. Horn, especially when
Speaker 2: you're going up against an offense that brings Ceedee Lamb
Speaker 2: and Amari Cooper and so that's a problem. Like Horn
Speaker 2: was a good looking rookie. But what I really like
Speaker 2: about this game, Dan, is that Matt Ruhle and Joe Brady,
Speaker 2: two coaches I really believe in, will have had nine
Speaker 2: full days to prepare for this game going up against
Speaker 2: Mike McCarthy. Dan, As you mentioned, I'm a Packer fan,
Speaker 2: he's maybe a coach who I don't have the greatest
Speaker 2: degree of faith in on a short Yeah, so I'm
Speaker 2: definitely playing the long week, short week thing here. And
Speaker 2: you know, I kind of think this should be more
Speaker 2: like a three point spread to begin with rather than
Speaker 2: the four.
Speaker 1: Yeah, give me the.
Speaker 2: Extra point and the work week differential, and I really
Speaker 2: like this one for the dog.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there are a lot of four and a halfs
Speaker 1: now by the way out there, so it's moving even
Speaker 1: up in that direction. And it's not surprising. The Cowboys
Speaker 1: are a very public public sure now, I mean we
Speaker 1: assume Christian Gaffrey's out for this game, so that doesn't
Speaker 1: scare you off about it at all? No, no, okay,
Speaker 1: all right. Another guy who I bet a prop at
Speaker 1: on is Robbie Anderson this week. I know it's going
Speaker 1: to be gross, but check it out again. A video
Speaker 1: over at Betting Process.
Speaker 2: Is this a squeaky wheel theory day?
Speaker 1: Might be Mike be a little squeaky wheel, might be
Speaker 1: a little squeaky wheel. It also might be that I
Speaker 1: expect Diggs to kind of shadow DJ Moor and they
Speaker 1: don't have too many other places to go, and Dallas
Speaker 1: gives up a lot of high uh you know, explosive
Speaker 1: passing blazer. So yeah, there's a couple of reasons. But uh,
Speaker 1: I won't I won't even give it away. YouTube dot
Speaker 1: Com slash betting pros coach check it out all right,
Speaker 1: So I you know, interesting Patty the mini buye versus
Speaker 1: the short Week and the Matt and Mike McCarthy, who
Speaker 1: I similar fit. By the way, fun fun story. When
Speaker 1: Adam Gase was hired, I remember everybody asking me about
Speaker 1: it and being like, oh, do you want McCarthy because
Speaker 1: McCarthy was in the running, And I said, the reason
Speaker 1: why I would prefer Gas is because I think it's
Speaker 1: easier to move on from Gas than it is to
Speaker 1: move on from Mike McCarthy, because I think McCarthy comes
Speaker 1: with such a big mystique. So that was a point
Speaker 1: in favor. And obviously we have moved on from Adam
Speaker 1: Gates and I expect McCarthy to coach the Cowboys for
Speaker 1: the next seven years, so that'll be fine. But yeah,
Speaker 1: I didn't have a great feel for it, just because
Speaker 1: realistically I think Cowboys, like they looked impressive in that
Speaker 1: game against the Eagles, and I realized it was a
Speaker 1: horrible Eagles game plan, but I think it was surprising
Speaker 1: to me how impressive they looked in that game, just
Speaker 1: so like I have almost a very very public sort
Speaker 1: of a wow. Did not expect to see that I'm
Speaker 1: a little gun shy right now, you know, But I
Speaker 1: think if I had to take a side, I probably
Speaker 1: would take the four and a half because I take
Speaker 1: the points. But I agree with you that closer to
Speaker 1: a field goal probably does feel better either way. Though
Speaker 1: I'm staying away. I'm going to enjoy the rooting for
Speaker 1: you on it, though, I'm going to go to your
Speaker 1: team though. Here Pat, now I'm not gonna go with
Speaker 1: the spread. I'm going with the total though. Forty five
Speaker 1: and a half I'm going under. Steelers against the Packers
Speaker 1: is another example of two teams that play slow. So again,
Speaker 1: forty five and a half, two teams that play slow,
Speaker 1: generally speaking, going up and this again, if you look,
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin has been an NFL coach for a very
Speaker 1: long time, and I think like it's past narrative point
Speaker 1: to see what happens with Tomlin's team. I mean, Pat,
Speaker 1: when you bet on a Mike Tomlin team as like
Speaker 1: a favorite or a heavy favorite, he's almost always going
Speaker 1: to let you down. They're almost never going to cover.
Speaker 1: But when you bet on him as an underdog, he
Speaker 1: gets that team up. That team plays better than you've
Speaker 1: ever seen when he gets points, and when he gets
Speaker 1: a lot of points, when it's the nobody believes in
Speaker 1: us thing, he can play up. So there's a reason
Speaker 1: enough on that side to bet them on the spread.
Speaker 1: But for me, I think what that means in this
Speaker 1: game is that the defense is going to get up
Speaker 1: and the defense is going to play really well, because
Speaker 1: really they don't have the horses. You can rara all
Speaker 1: you want, you don't have the horses to have a
Speaker 1: dominant offensive game, especially with Deontay Johnson banged up. He
Speaker 1: was limited yesterday in practice. Juju Smith Schuster didn't practice yesterday.
Speaker 1: I don't know if either or both or neither is
Speaker 1: going to play in this game. So I think realistically though,
Speaker 1: I do think that the defense is going to get
Speaker 1: up for this game. Meanwhile, you've got the Packers. They
Speaker 1: are coming off that monstrous win in that game. This
Speaker 1: is a prime sort of letdown spot for that offense
Speaker 1: coming into the game. So this strikes me as a
Speaker 1: game that the Steelers want to turn into a little
Speaker 1: bit of a slugfest because again, they don't have the
Speaker 1: offensive firepower to go toe to toe with the Packers.
Speaker 1: So I think they're going to want to kind of
Speaker 1: slow the game down play with their defense. I think
Speaker 1: the Packers probably come out a little flat because that's
Speaker 1: what happens generally when you come off these giants and
Speaker 1: everything like that. So again strikes me as a close game.
Speaker 1: I would lean the Steelers. We'll talk about that in
Speaker 1: a bit as we run through all the games, probably
Speaker 1: getting the six and a half points. But this strikes
Speaker 1: me as a close game classic like Mike Tomlin, keep
Speaker 1: the game close, get his team up, and keep under
Speaker 1: So under forty five and a half in this game
Speaker 1: is my play.
Speaker 2: So I like that one a lot because the Packers
Speaker 2: are going to be continue to be without David Bacciari,
Speaker 2: who's come back a while longer, and also likely without
Speaker 2: Elkton Jenkins, who slides over from the left guard spot
Speaker 2: to left tackle to guard that blind set. Now, Jenkins
Speaker 2: did not play against the forty nine Ers, and I
Speaker 2: really expected the forty nine ers to get to Rogers
Speaker 2: that game, and strangely they did not. They only sacked
Speaker 2: him once and they're you know, a few hurries, but
Speaker 2: for the most part, like they kept Rogers pretty clean,
Speaker 2: especially at key times. I don't know if that's going
Speaker 2: to be the case this week with Pittsburgh trying to
Speaker 2: get off the mat after that pad home loss to
Speaker 2: the Bengals. I mean, how many times have you seen
Speaker 2: the Steelers lose it home to the Bengals over the
Speaker 2: last couple of decades. I mean, that's an embarrassing loss
Speaker 2: for them, and TJ. Watt trending toward playing yes my understanding,
Speaker 2: which is going to be a big problem for that
Speaker 2: Green Bay offensive line. So I do like your under
Speaker 2: call a lot here, and probably the side call too.
Speaker 2: As much as as I hate to admit it, it does
Speaker 2: look like kind of a trouble spot for the Packers.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't want to take the Steelers right just
Speaker 1: because you watch them play pat and it's you know,
Speaker 1: just disgusting.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: We talked about it jokingly, you know on our fantasy
Speaker 1: show that you've got a lot of you know, Ben
Speaker 1: Roethlisberger running for his life, running for his life and
Speaker 1: then getting off a three yard dumb pass to Nowgie Harris,
Speaker 1: especially if those receivers are injured. But again, this is
Speaker 1: the game. Tomlin's going to get up the defense. I
Speaker 1: think it's going to be a slug fest, and again
Speaker 1: I could see the Packers coming out a little flat
Speaker 1: here off that huge win. That's a lot of times
Speaker 1: what happens. So we'll see about that. All right. So
Speaker 1: let's very briefly run through the picks. I will run
Speaker 1: them through again at the end, and then Pat and
Speaker 1: I are going to go through each of the spreads
Speaker 1: really quick, or the over runners, whatever you want, Pat,
Speaker 1: and we can talk about how we feel. You are
Speaker 1: taking the Jets getting seven from the Titans, the Panthers
Speaker 1: getting four from the Cowboys, and the Kansas City Chiefs
Speaker 1: and Philadelphia Eagles over fifty four. I'm going to take yes, Phew,
Speaker 1: I got it, totally, totally got it right off the
Speaker 1: top of my head. Ravens and the Broncos are going
Speaker 1: under for me under forty five and a half. The
Speaker 1: Giants are getting seven and a half from the Saints,
Speaker 1: and the Steelers Packers also under forty five and a half.
Speaker 1: So I'm rooting for a lot of forty fours this week.
Speaker 1: All right, Patt, are you ready to go through each
Speaker 1: of the remaining games and make some bets. I'm going
Speaker 1: to force you to pick aside. Ah, the Browns are
Speaker 1: laying to to the Vikings in Minnesota.
Speaker 2: What do you think I would reluctantly take the home
Speaker 2: dog here, really reluctantly. Like I don't like betting Minnesota
Speaker 2: at home in these close games. It seems like more
Speaker 2: often than not the landing. But like, I do think
Speaker 2: the Browns might be a little overvalued off the Bears
Speaker 2: game and one of those things where they might be
Speaker 2: a little fat and happy, and I don't know if
Speaker 2: I expect them to win on the road.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I uh, I think the Viking. I like, if
Speaker 1: I was forced to pick a side, it's definitely the
Speaker 1: Vikings getting to at home. And I thought about it, Pat,
Speaker 1: I thought about it for my pick. I really did,
Speaker 1: because I do think this is a spot to back
Speaker 1: the Vikings, to back Zimmer as that defense gets like
Speaker 1: a little more. Remember they had all these new players
Speaker 1: coming in and I know that, right, So I think
Speaker 1: like he gives Zimmer a little time, he's bound to
Speaker 1: sort of find the cohesive unit. The offense looks really
Speaker 1: really good, and I do think it's a letdown spot
Speaker 1: here for the Browns. So I would agree with you.
Speaker 1: Any thoughts on the total of fifty one and a half.
Speaker 2: At all, Yeah, I would probably play that under just
Speaker 2: because I think that the Browns want to play a
Speaker 2: little bit slow. They want to run the ball and
Speaker 2: play ball control.
Speaker 1: So yep, I agree with you on that one. How
Speaker 1: about the Chiefs. We talked about the over under. How
Speaker 1: about the Chiefs laying seven on the road in Filmladelphia.
Speaker 2: Oh, whenever I backed the Chiefs, I lose, So I'm
Speaker 2: taking the points with the home dog.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I just don't think the Chiefs are good enough to
Speaker 2: cover that sort of spread on the road.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that that is fair. Okay, next game.
Speaker 1: How about we already talked about the spread for the
Speaker 1: Panthers and the Cowboys. What about the total at fifty
Speaker 1: one and a half? Any feelings on that?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that seems like a game that's capable
Speaker 2: of getting over. I mean, even though the Panthers defense
Speaker 2: has been really good and the Cowboys defense has been
Speaker 2: better than expected, But I do feel like we're going
Speaker 2: to see points in this one. I don't know, it's
Speaker 2: probably a pretty true line. I mean it would be
Speaker 2: to stay away from me.
Speaker 1: I guess that's exactly how I feel. It's not a
Speaker 1: line that I want to go near if I'm forced
Speaker 1: to choose, Because I was like, whatever I'd probably go over,
Speaker 1: but it's not a line that I want to go on.
Speaker 1: Mentioned the Giants and the Saints. You know, I'm taking
Speaker 1: the Giants getting seven and a half. How about the
Speaker 1: total forty two? By the way, there's a lot of
Speaker 1: forty ones out there as well. There's you know, it's
Speaker 1: all over the place. What do you think?
Speaker 2: We talked about it not really buying the Saints offense,
Speaker 2: and I sort of am buying the Saints defense. So
Speaker 2: I guess under Like I think this could be a
Speaker 2: real nails on chalkboard kind of game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it's gross and it's low. It's a really
Speaker 1: low total, But again, I think it's going to be
Speaker 1: a close game, and I think both teams are gonna
Speaker 1: have a little trouble scoring generally speaking. So I also
Speaker 1: lean for the under. And we talked about the Titans
Speaker 1: and the Jets there spread the total is forty four
Speaker 1: and a half. Any thoughts on.
Speaker 2: That another one that I would probably play under. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean we know that the Jets are going to
Speaker 2: have a little bit of trouble moving the ball, even
Speaker 2: if it's against not a great defense, and the Titans
Speaker 2: are going to want to play slow especially with those
Speaker 2: receivers out.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I think. I think it's just sort
Speaker 1: of a lot of Derrick Henry, a lot of clock moving.
Speaker 1: I think under as well as the play was almost
Speaker 1: one of mine as well. But because you took the
Speaker 1: Jets and the spread, I was gonna let it go.
Speaker 1: Little Birdie told me that you have very specific feelings
Speaker 1: on our next game, and that is the Bears laying
Speaker 1: three now to the Lions in Chicago in the total
Speaker 1: of forty two.
Speaker 2: Oh Dan, I so wanted to take the over in
Speaker 2: this game. I really wanted to take the over. I
Speaker 2: think that Lions secondary is just absolutely defenseless with Jeff
Speaker 2: Acuda and Melafan wu outs, and it was not a
Speaker 2: good secondary to begin with. They don't have the pass
Speaker 2: rush to like cover up for that deficiency. And I
Speaker 2: think Fields is going to bounce back. We talked about
Speaker 2: this on the show, Like Matt Nagy may be a
Speaker 2: lame duck, but he's forty three, Like he wants to
Speaker 2: have a coaching career for another twenty twenty five years,
Speaker 2: and he after that debacle last week, is going to
Speaker 2: be coaching for his life. Like is he going to
Speaker 2: get another spot in the NFL. Or is he going
Speaker 2: to be like, you know, the offensive coordinator at the
Speaker 2: University of Montana. So the thing that scares me off this,
Speaker 2: though Dan and I do think like the Bears, secondary
Speaker 2: has its vulnerabilities too. The thing that scares me away
Speaker 2: from this is that it is supposed to rain a
Speaker 2: lot in Chicago on Sunday. And I'm generally one who
Speaker 2: believes the weather effects thing is overstated a lot, except
Speaker 2: for you know, the crazy win games or like the
Speaker 2: heavy rain games. But this could be kind of a
Speaker 2: heavy rain game. And the Chicago Park District, which keeps
Speaker 2: up the Soldier field turf has kind of a reputation
Speaker 2: for not doing the best job of it. It used
Speaker 2: to be really bad. I think they've gotten a little better,
Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm a little worried about field conditions and
Speaker 2: I just don't know if this game plays quite the
Speaker 2: way I thought it was going to if there's you know,
Speaker 2: a wet field and the slippery ball involved.
Speaker 1: So yeah, well, so by the way you feel, you
Speaker 1: feel confident field is going to be under center, as
Speaker 1: it could be any one of three qbs. As we
Speaker 1: record this, Pat, I know.
Speaker 2: That the mad Naggy thing another bit of brilliance for me,
Speaker 2: I am confident. I mean it would just be such
Speaker 2: a like, such an unpopular decision if he turned this.
Speaker 1: This is the spot where you should allow fields to
Speaker 1: play against the Detroit Lions defense like that, right, see
Speaker 1: if you can bounce them back. So that's what I
Speaker 1: would do. Anyway. I will say that the consensus spread
Speaker 1: is three, but it is more books have it at
Speaker 1: three than any other thing. But there are a lot
Speaker 1: of books a two and a half. I like the
Speaker 1: Bears in this spot right. That was also something which
Speaker 1: I debated picking as well. I understand now the weather
Speaker 1: is the weather. If it's bad, especially if the field
Speaker 1: is bad, that's an equalizer a little bit. But I
Speaker 1: get that the lines have played hard. That's great. They
Speaker 1: should have gotten destroyed by the Ravens last game. If
Speaker 1: Mark he'th Brown can hold on to you know, one
Speaker 1: of three touchdown basses, then they get blown out of
Speaker 1: the water. The Lions play hard, kudos to them, but
Speaker 1: this is the Bears, as bad as they have looked,
Speaker 1: are better team. And I think if you get it
Speaker 1: on field goal in particular, I definitely like it. And
Speaker 1: there are a bunch out there right now. Points bet
Speaker 1: for example at two and a half, but even at three,
Speaker 1: I lean towards the Bears regardless. Let's go to Washington
Speaker 1: visiting the Falcons. The Falcons are getting a point and
Speaker 1: a half here at home, and the totals forty seven
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 2: It's crazy, Dan, but I really think this Washington team
Speaker 2: is like better than it's showed. It should have a
Speaker 2: pass rush. I don't understand why this is, according to DVOA,
Speaker 2: like the fourth worst defense in the league right now.
Speaker 2: It just seems like they have better personnel than that.
Speaker 2: So I think they're gonna pick it up on the
Speaker 2: defensive end. And I just don't think much of this
Speaker 2: Atlanta team, So you know I'll lay that point, even
Speaker 2: on the road with a team that's playing a backup quarterback.
Speaker 1: Yep, I have already made this bet. Just to be clear,
Speaker 1: I have taken Washington. I am with you on this.
Speaker 1: Washington strikes me as a much better team than we've seen,
Speaker 1: even without Fitzpatrick. I think Taylor Heineke has been competent.
Speaker 1: One thing is that, like before recording this, I see
Speaker 1: Antonio Gibson might be dealing with an injury and didn't
Speaker 1: practice today, so I'm assuming that he's fine obviously, but
Speaker 1: that might make a difference a little bit. But either way,
Speaker 1: I do think that that Washington wins this game. And
Speaker 1: obviously it's er point and a half, so I think
Speaker 1: they cover. So I am with you there. Colts are
Speaker 1: visiting the Dolphins. The Colts are getting two points. Total
Speaker 1: is forty two and a half.
Speaker 2: Leaning the Dolphins here. Just yeah, this is a terrible game.
Speaker 2: I couldn't I couldn't play this either way. Like, if
Speaker 2: you forced me to pick a side, I'd probably go
Speaker 2: with the home team. But yeah, it's a stay away.
Speaker 1: I want nothing to do with this game I can make.
Speaker 1: I mean, I can make a case for either either team.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure I even want to watch it.
Speaker 1: Oh no, we have to. It's our job watch that game.
Speaker 1: But I agree, it's just kind of going to be
Speaker 1: an ugly game. Both teams need to win right now,
Speaker 1: so you know, we'll see how it goes. But yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a desperate Colts team against the Dolphins team that
Speaker 1: you know, obviously without two don't know what they could do.
Speaker 1: So total stay away for me. How about again, these
Speaker 1: Giants spreads? We talked about it on Monday. The Bills
Speaker 1: are laying sixteen and a half now, down from seventeen
Speaker 1: to the Texans at home, you know in Buffalo forty seven.
Speaker 2: Over under if I so, yeah, I tend not to
Speaker 2: play these big lines, but I would probably play the Bills,
Speaker 2: believe they or not in this one. I just maybe
Speaker 2: it's another thing. Maybe I should be going the other
Speaker 2: way with the Texans, having had the nine full days
Speaker 2: of prep for this one, but I just kind of
Speaker 2: feel like it's not gonna work out well for them.
Speaker 2: They're just really overmanned, and this Bill's defense is very good,
Speaker 2: and I can't see the Texans grinding out more than
Speaker 2: like ten points here. I mean they're implied point totals
Speaker 2: like fifteen and a half. Yeah, I don't know how
Speaker 2: they get there.
Speaker 1: I agree, I agree. I mean it's not a game
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take because I usually don't take these giants spreads.
Speaker 1: But yeah, it's really difficult to see how they're gonna
Speaker 1: be able to put up points. The Bills defense is
Speaker 1: really good. They're playing really really well right now. And yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean I could if you're forcing me to choose
Speaker 1: a side, I would take the bills like I will,
Speaker 1: I will, you know, deal with the the possibility of
Speaker 1: a backdoor cover. But yeah, I don't know how they
Speaker 1: put up points. So I'm with you. This is an
Speaker 1: interesting one here that I'm looking forward to watching. Seahawks
Speaker 1: are visiting the forty nine Ers. The Seahawks are getting
Speaker 1: three and the totals fifty two.
Speaker 2: I think I'd take the Niners here. Again, it's just
Speaker 2: that I think that Seattle defense is a lot worse
Speaker 2: than people realize. So that's kind of that's kind of
Speaker 2: my angle on this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I take the Seahawks. I think if
Speaker 1: I had to go one way, I just it's rough
Speaker 1: that they're one and two. You're gonna give me Russell
Speaker 1: Wilson down one and two, Like this just strikes me
Speaker 1: as the game that worst case, he's just gonna take over.
Speaker 1: And I'm not that impressed with the forty nine Ers
Speaker 1: right now, like I They're they're, you know, a fine
Speaker 1: team and everything like that, but you know, with Jimmy
Speaker 1: g under center, just not an offense that scares you.
Speaker 1: Not No offense I think can really exploit the deficiencies
Speaker 1: in the Seahawks defense. And again you've got Russell Wilson
Speaker 1: right now coming off you know, bad loss not you know,
Speaker 1: a couple bad losses in a row just strikes me
Speaker 1: as you know, he's going to come out on top
Speaker 1: of here. Again, not a game I'm betting necessarily, but
Speaker 1: if I was forced to, I think I would take
Speaker 1: the Seahawks in this one. How about the Cardinals visiting
Speaker 1: the Rams. The Rams are laying four and a half.
Speaker 1: Total is fifty five.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I this was another one I looked at and
Speaker 2: I was just I could not choose side or either
Speaker 2: end of that total. Like it was just, I mean,
Speaker 2: it seems like it's a good line. It's a very
Speaker 2: sharp line both ways.
Speaker 1: I agree, I'm not touching the total. I mean it's
Speaker 1: fifty five. Like, there's no way I'm taking an under
Speaker 1: in this game. You can make it seventy and so,
Speaker 1: like I'm just going to sit out right out right.
Speaker 1: But at the same time, fifty five is huge. I
Speaker 1: think I'd say a way, if I had to pick
Speaker 1: a side, I'd probably take the Rams. But it's not
Speaker 1: a game that I feel good about at all, Like
Speaker 1: I you know, even if the Rams show to a
Speaker 1: big lead, you can easily see the Cardinals sort of
Speaker 1: covering and talk about the total in this one. Would
Speaker 1: you take the side here with the Steelers? You know,
Speaker 1: I lean that way. The Packers are laying six, and
Speaker 1: after the Steelers in Green.
Speaker 2: Bay, I would, yeah, the angry Steelers Tomlin firing these
Speaker 2: guys up after the bad, bad home loss to Cincinnati.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yep, all right, I would as well. And we
Speaker 1: all talked about this one. The Ravens are getting one
Speaker 1: in Denver. You have picked a side because you have
Speaker 1: to contractfully obligated by whatever weird you're in, or you're
Speaker 1: taking the Broncos laying one. I would probably take the
Speaker 1: Ravens getting one. Assuming Lamar is okay. I believe I
Speaker 1: just saw something that say he did not practice again today,
Speaker 1: but he reported obviously he's out or running away, but whatever,
Speaker 1: that's what is all right. Sunday night, everybody is waiting
Speaker 1: for the game. The Bucks are visiting the Patriots. The
Speaker 1: Bucks right now are laying seven points and the total
Speaker 1: is forty nine.
Speaker 2: Oh man, I have to take the home dog here,
Speaker 2: just have to. I know. It's Brady Mania and a
Speaker 2: lot of people just can't conceive of Brady and Gronk
Speaker 2: losing their homecoming game. But I just there's no way
Speaker 2: I am giving seven points to a Bill Belichick team
Speaker 2: at home. I just can't do it.
Speaker 1: I am not betting on this game whatsoever. I think honestly,
Speaker 1: if I had to, I would I Pat. I am.
Speaker 1: I am Bill Belizick no matter what. Is an incredible,
Speaker 1: incredible coach. But I am slowly starting to come around
Speaker 1: to the fact that if he doesn't have Tom Brady
Speaker 1: on his team, I have no idea what we would
Speaker 1: think of Bill Belichick at this point. You know, I
Speaker 1: know he's a great I just don't know if he
Speaker 1: has if he has the ability right now. And I
Speaker 1: don't trust Mac Jones whatsoever like that. That's also part
Speaker 1: of it. Even if they the defense steps up, I
Speaker 1: just don't know if they keep this game close, I'm
Speaker 1: not betting it, to be clear, But.
Speaker 2: What was the total on this one? Again? Dan?
Speaker 1: Forty nine?
Speaker 2: Forty nine? Okay, Yeah, that's a stay away. Yeah, I
Speaker 2: think that's a good line.
Speaker 1: I think if I had to, I'd go under. But
Speaker 1: I don't want it whatsoever. I just want to sit back,
Speaker 1: Pat you and I'll be doing the Fantasy Recap show
Speaker 1: right around that time. We'll dB al right that we'll
Speaker 1: sit back and watch it for sure. Last one Monday
Speaker 1: night game, the Raiders are visiting the Chargers. The Chargers
Speaker 1: are laying a field goal total fifty one and a half.
Speaker 2: Oh fun game. Yeah, I believe a little bit more
Speaker 2: in the Chargers. I'd be inclined to take them. And
Speaker 2: I do think these teams are going to race up
Speaker 2: and down the field, even though these defenses are very
Speaker 2: statistically average, both of them, just like in the middle
Speaker 2: of the road defenses. But these offenses are both humming,
Speaker 2: you know, as long as the Chargers can stop these
Speaker 2: motion penalties that nullified touchdowns. They've had like three of
Speaker 2: those in the last two weeks, but other than that,
Speaker 2: and it still really hasn't slowed them down that much.
Speaker 2: So I think this is going to be a fun
Speaker 2: way to close out Week four.
Speaker 1: Yeah, these are Sunday night game, Monday game, both just
Speaker 1: awesome football games to be watching. I would lean over
Speaker 1: and I would lean Chargers for both of these, because
Speaker 1: this is nice to see the Chargers finally kind of
Speaker 1: doing what I think we all thought they could be doing,
Speaker 1: you know, either last year and before the inevitable injuries
Speaker 1: hit Pat, thank you very much for pinch hitting. I
Speaker 1: really appreciate it. I love talking to you. As you know,
Speaker 1: we do a lot of podcasts together. I won't ask
Speaker 1: you where everybody can find more of you in your
Speaker 1: work because it's a fantasy pros and at betting pros
Speaker 1: and all the good stuff. So don't worry about that.
Speaker 1: Let me very quickly again, they'll run through our picks
Speaker 1: just so everybody has them in case you missed it.
Speaker 1: Pat's taking the Jets getting seven over the Titans, the
Speaker 1: Panthers getting four over the Cowboys, and the Chiefs and
Speaker 1: the Eagles over fifty four points. I'm taking the Ravens
Speaker 1: and the Broncos to go under forty five and a half,
Speaker 1: the Giants getting seven and a half against the Saints,
Speaker 1: and the Steelers and the Packers under forty five and
Speaker 1: a half. As usual, we'll be back on Monday talking
Speaker 1: about our instant reaction into the week five lines. In
Speaker 1: the meantime, enjoy your football everybody. I'll talk to you
Speaker 1: again then
Speaker 2: M