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Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast. I'm

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Speaker 1: your host, Dan Harris. You can find me on Twitter

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Speaker 1: at Dan Harris eighty. It is time to talk about

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Speaker 1: our best bets for Week four of the NFL season.

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Speaker 1: And back again to do it with me is Pat Fitzmorris.

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Speaker 1: Find him on Twitter at fits underscore ff. Pat was

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Speaker 1: here earlier this week. He's not officially my new co

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Speaker 1: host or anything like that. He is pinchinitting today. Our

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Speaker 1: guest had a little bit of a conflict. Pat. Thank

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Speaker 1: you for bin chitting on short notice. I appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: My pleasure. Dan, Happy Week four to you.

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Speaker 1: Yes, I'm excited. I'm ready to get into this. I

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Speaker 1: feel pretty good about my three picks today and we'll

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Speaker 1: talk about it. But I did get your picks in advance.

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Speaker 1: You did take one of mine. It's a gross pick.

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Speaker 1: I really look forward to bringing it down a little bit.

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Speaker 1: But you guys know how we do this. We just

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Speaker 1: give our three best to the weekend, either spreads or

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Speaker 1: over unders or even moneyline if we want, and then

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Speaker 1: we'll quickly run through the remaining spread. Before we do it,

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Speaker 1: let me remind you about the latest offer from BETMGM.

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Speaker 1: New customers bet five dollars win one hundred dollars on

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Speaker 1: any NFL game if either team scores a touchdown. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so it doesn't have to be the team you bet on,

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Speaker 1: but five dollars in either team win one hundred if

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Speaker 1: either one scores a touchdown. That's pretty much going to happen.

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Speaker 1: That is code Juice one hundred. I've mentioned this before.

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Speaker 1: That is our podcast, The Daily Juice, hosted by Matt Parral. Again,

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Speaker 1: the code is Juice one hundred New customers at bet MGM,

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get into it. We're going to basically

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Speaker 1: use our consensus lines over at bettingpros dot com that

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Speaker 1: gives you the aggregate of what is available in the market.

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Speaker 1: There are some disparities obviously between books, which maybe we'll

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Speaker 1: note if we do. You can fade or follow us

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Speaker 1: or do whatever you want. Very briefly, let me run

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Speaker 1: through what happened last week. Our guest at the Good

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Speaker 1: News for You Pat is that the bar is incredibly low.

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Speaker 1: Based on our last guest, Alex Kiloj from the Action

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Speaker 1: Network actually missed on all three of his favorite bets.

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Speaker 1: They were the Jaguars Cardinals over fifty two, the Bucks

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Speaker 1: minus one against the Rams and the Browns and the

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Speaker 1: Bears over forty two. I believe or maybe I was

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Speaker 1: wrong on that, but regardless, he did miss it because

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Speaker 1: that didn't come anywhere close. I hit on two of

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Speaker 1: the three. I had the Jets Broncos under forty one

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Speaker 1: and a half, which was to me a one of

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Speaker 1: my favorite bets that I've made so far this year.

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Speaker 1: The Titans minus five to the Colts. I did miss

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Speaker 1: on the Eagles plus three and a half to the Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: I completely and utterly misread that game absolutely like that

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Speaker 1: was actually one of my favorite bets coming into the week.

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Speaker 1: So hopefully we'll do better. Bat, you get to kick

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Speaker 1: us off any bet you want on the board.

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Speaker 2: Go ahead, all right, Dan, I'm gonna take the Jets

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Speaker 2: plus seven at home against the Titans, because who should

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Speaker 2: the Titans be favored against on the road by seven points.

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Speaker 2: I don't really think anyone in the NFL. I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I feel like people are kind of misreading their two wins,

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Speaker 2: like the Colts are not a good team. That's not

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Speaker 2: a quality win, and they did have after a bad start.

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Speaker 2: Their one decent win was against Seattle, although I think

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Speaker 2: that Seattle defense is a lot worse than people realize.

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Speaker 2: And you know, once they got it going, they look

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Speaker 2: pretty good in that game. But I just don't think

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Speaker 2: they're necessarily good enough to beat the Jets by more

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Speaker 2: than a touchdown on the road. So I think the

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Speaker 2: Jets are maybe, like, I know, things have not gone well.

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Speaker 2: I know they haven't been able to keep the pass

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Speaker 2: rush off. Zach Wilson, maybe you can talk me out

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Speaker 2: of this, Dan, if anyone can, it's you. But you know,

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Speaker 2: and I think the Jets defense is actually pretty decent.

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Speaker 2: And you know, I don't think Sala is going to

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Speaker 2: be one of these guys who has to wait five

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Speaker 2: six weeks weeks for his first win. I think it's

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Speaker 2: going to happen sooner rather than later.

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Speaker 1: Would you take them on the money line? I should

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Speaker 1: look at what the what the odds are here. I'll

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Speaker 1: talk about my opinions on this game in a second.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, probably plus one.

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Speaker 1: Oh it's more than that. It depends on the blook five.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, you're in something on that as well.

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Speaker 1: Yes, if you are going for the Jets, you are

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Speaker 1: probably going down the wrong road. But it's fine. This actually, Pat,

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Speaker 1: I said one of the bets I was going to

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Speaker 1: take with you. This is actually the bet, and I

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Speaker 1: know it's ridiculous. And again, everybody knows I am a

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Speaker 1: Jets fan, but everybody knows I'm sure I'm not a

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Speaker 1: Jets homer. It's impossible to be one. Actually, and I've

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Speaker 1: kind of been buying the Titans team from the basically

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Speaker 1: below what I think is their actual value, the perception

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Speaker 1: in the market. I think it's been a little low

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Speaker 1: because of that first game against Arizona when they look terrible.

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Speaker 1: Week two, I had them getting I think it was

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Speaker 1: five and a half against the Seahawks. Week three, again,

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Speaker 1: as I mentioned, I had them laying the five to

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Speaker 1: the Cults. Last week against the Cults, it was a

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Speaker 1: little more fading the Colts. As you sort of mentioned

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Speaker 1: that it was buying the Titans. The reason why I

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Speaker 1: also like the Jets in this game. I liked it

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Speaker 1: at seven and a half. Obviously, now that it's not

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Speaker 1: the seven, not quite as appealing. But there are a

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Speaker 1: couple of reasons. Number one, let's not gloss over the

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Speaker 1: fact that the Titans are probably gonna have no wide

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Speaker 1: receivers in this game. Right, Aj Brown is almost certainly

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Speaker 1: not going to play. The latest on Julio pat On,

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Speaker 1: I mean it sounds like he's not gonna play, right,

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Speaker 1: he mispracticed with a hamstring injury. Right, We're not expecting

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Speaker 1: him to go at this point, are we? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I mean he was just like I don't know if

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Speaker 2: there was an injury, but they said he tightened up

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Speaker 2: in the fourth court and they have not let him

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Speaker 2: practice all week. So, like, I think Aj is definitely

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Speaker 2: not going to play and probably trending that way with

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Speaker 2: Julio two.

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Speaker 1: Right, So who are we looking at it? Their number

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Speaker 1: one wide receiver? Is it Westbrook? Akina? Like? Is that

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Speaker 1: what we're actually going with at this point?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? You know, Josh Reynolds, Who am I forgetting Chester Rogers.

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Speaker 1: It's just not an offense that's going to be able

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Speaker 1: to pass the ball up and down the field. And again,

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Speaker 1: their scheme isn't doesn't work quite as well without Arthur Smith,

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Speaker 1: and so it's gonna be a lot of running. I

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Speaker 1: don't despise the under in this game either, but it's

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Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of Derek Henry and you mentioned it.

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Speaker 1: The Jets defense a collection of you know haves and

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Speaker 1: have nots. Mostly have nots has actually played a lot

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Speaker 1: better that like, their whole is greater than the some

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Speaker 1: of their parts, if that makes sense. And where they

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Speaker 1: really struggle is the secondary where they're playing absolute no names.

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Speaker 1: But again, you've got now if Brown and or Julio Jones,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna be healthy for this game. I might have

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Speaker 1: a different opinion, but without them you just don't have

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Speaker 1: to worry about it all that much. So it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a ton of Derek Henry and I expect them

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Speaker 1: to win the game, but I don't think they're gonna

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Speaker 1: be able to put up a ton of points. Conversely,

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Speaker 1: I think the Jets, like they have looked at terrible.

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Speaker 1: I completely admit that their offensive line is abysmal. I

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Speaker 1: completely get that, but they're not completely devoid of playmakers.

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Speaker 1: You know, the scheme is okay. I expect Corey Davis

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Speaker 1: to have a big game. I actually pat I did

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Speaker 1: a video for bettingpros dot com. One of my five

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Speaker 1: player prop bets was Corey Davis over his receiving yards,

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Speaker 1: which I think I can't remember what it was, forty

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Speaker 1: eight and a half something like that. I think Cory

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Speaker 1: Davis has a big game here again playing Denver. In Denver,

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Speaker 1: I knew that game was going to be terrible for

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Speaker 1: the Jets. I really did. Like you know, they weren't

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Speaker 1: getting anything going. The Patriots have a pretty solid defense.

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Speaker 1: This is a game I think that the Jets are

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Speaker 1: going to be able to put up points. So not

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Speaker 1: a ton of points, but I think they'll be able

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Speaker 1: to keep it close enough where I think if you're

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Speaker 1: getting the touchdown, certainly, if any seven and a half's

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Speaker 1: are out there, those look to be gone. In the market,

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Speaker 1: the consensus is seven, but it's all seven up and

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Speaker 1: down the line. I would definitely go for it if

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Speaker 1: you have the hook. But either way, this was the

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Speaker 1: one I was going to take bad. Oddly enough, the

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Speaker 1: ugly Jets game is the one I was going to get.

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Speaker 2: And I forgot that you were a Jets fanda. Believe

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Speaker 2: it or not. I was not merely pandering.

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Speaker 1: To you with that pick.

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Speaker 2: But yet you I'm glad you mentioned the receivers in

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Speaker 2: my battling. That was a big part of it, because

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Speaker 2: I mean, if you've got a j Brown and Julio

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Speaker 2: Jones and then you're picking on this young cornerback group

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Speaker 2: that has what between the six guys like two years

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Speaker 2: of NFL sperience. You know, if it's like Ecoles trying

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Speaker 2: to guard aj Brown, I mean different story. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: with guys like Westbrook, Kakina and Reynolds and Chester Rogers, like,

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Speaker 2: you're not going to be able to do as much

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Speaker 2: damage with that Moley assortment of who's the who's who

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Speaker 2: of Titans backup receivers.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So I just think it's going to be a

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Speaker 1: closer game. And again, I do think that the Jets

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Speaker 1: offense is going to look at least a little more competent.

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Speaker 1: They played three tough defenses in a row here, so

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Speaker 1: I think, again, I think this is something that's going

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Speaker 1: to be close. I do like that you're taking them

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Speaker 1: on the money line. You're very clearly a Jets fan.

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Speaker 1: It's fine. I will take your Packers then, and we

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Speaker 1: will we will do an even swap. Totally found me,

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Speaker 1: all right, So for my first game, I'm actually going

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Speaker 1: with a total and it's the Ravens and the Broncos

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Speaker 1: under forty five and a half. There are a lot

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Speaker 1: of reasons why I like this game. Under First of all,

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Speaker 1: both teams generally play slow, and I think that's something

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Speaker 1: always that I look at with the total as I

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Speaker 1: look at the pace of play, they both play slow. Generally,

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Speaker 1: they both run the a ton that's gonna just naturally

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Speaker 1: bleed the clock. The Broncos are three and oh so

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Speaker 1: far to the under. I mentioned that I was taking

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Speaker 1: them last week against the Jets with the under that

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Speaker 1: hit very easily here, and I think that even just

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Speaker 1: generally taking what they look like overall, there are some

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Speaker 1: injury concerns here that I think also lend themselves to

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Speaker 1: the under. Another number one, Lamar Jackson, is banged up

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Speaker 1: in this game. He took a shot in the last game,

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Speaker 1: his back has been bothering him. So I think for

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Speaker 1: the most part, you're gonna see it a little under control.

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Speaker 1: And oddly enough, both these teams take shots down the

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Speaker 1: field like there are two of the teams that have

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Speaker 1: actually taken the most shots down the field. I think

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Speaker 1: that's gonna change a little bit for both in this game,

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Speaker 1: in part because Lamar Jackson is injured. In part, I

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Speaker 1: think the kJ Hamler injury pat is a little bit

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Speaker 1: underrated in terms of what it means for the offense.

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Speaker 1: Not so much Hamdler's production, but Hamler in his ability

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Speaker 1: to at least stretch the field opens up lanes. I

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Speaker 1: think for Sutton and for Patrick, who don't really have

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Speaker 1: that top end speed. Without that, I think it's just

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Speaker 1: gonna be very, very difficult for any really explosive plays

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Speaker 1: to happen for the Broncos. So it strikes me as

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Speaker 1: a game of like slow methodical drives here, where you know,

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Speaker 1: it's a lot of dinking and dunking. And I think

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Speaker 1: the Broncos obviously defensively are very good in Denver. By

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Speaker 1: the way I talked about this as well, that I

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Speaker 1: really think early in the season in Denver road teams

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Speaker 1: in particular, they just have trouble acclimating for the first month,

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Speaker 1: first four games usually where I like it because of

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Speaker 1: the thin air, and I think they're just not conditioned

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Speaker 1: enough to get there. At the Baltimore defense getting a

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Speaker 1: little healthier, this strikes me as a slugfest. Pat I

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Speaker 1: lean towards the Ravens, who I think are getting a

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Speaker 1: point and a half at this point, but I'm not

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Speaker 1: willing to take that. I do think, though, however, it's

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Speaker 1: going to be a slug fest. It's going to be

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Speaker 1: a slow, drawn out game, and I lean towards the

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Speaker 1: underhare at forty five and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you. I am actually in a bizarre

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Speaker 2: pool where I have to beat the Ravens games side

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Speaker 2: and total every week. And I did. Yeah, it's thirty

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Speaker 2: two people, and you are drawn an NFL team and

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Speaker 2: oh wow, I have to pick their games every week. Yes,

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Speaker 2: my friend, maybe our mutual friend Michael Beller of the

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Speaker 2: Athletics runs this one. Yeah, and yeah, it's kind of

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Speaker 2: a crazy team. I drew the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they're getting a point. Well, what's funny. Yeah, they're

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Speaker 1: getting a point. But it's all over the place. Actually,

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Speaker 1: depending on the book, the consensus line is getting a point.

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Speaker 1: Vandal has them giving a point, fox Ben has them

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Speaker 1: getting half a point. So it's a little all over

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Speaker 1: the place.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I got up. I took Denver at

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Speaker 2: home getting a point.

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Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, that's what the consensus line is. So you

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Speaker 1: take Denver in this game. If you had to pick

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Speaker 1: a side on the spread.

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Speaker 2: I did. I did. I took me under. I just

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Speaker 2: don't I don't think the Ravens are quite the same

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Speaker 2: same team that they would have been pre uh Gus

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Speaker 2: Edwards and and Marcus Peters like those were two big

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Speaker 2: blows for them. I just think that kind of you

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Speaker 2: know up below to each side of the ball, that

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Speaker 2: you know, maybe kind of took away a little bit

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Speaker 2: of their underpinnings.

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Speaker 1: Yep. Well, if you're going with any side in the

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Speaker 1: Broncos game, head covers usually decide to go on so

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Speaker 1: out right, I can't there, but I would. I would

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Speaker 1: lean and again if they're getting a point, if they're

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Speaker 1: giving a point, irrelevant, but I would probably go with

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Speaker 1: the Ravens personally in this game. That's not one of

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Speaker 1: my official pick. My only official pick is the under

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Speaker 1: forty five and a half points. Again, this is about this,

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Speaker 1: you know, when I looked at all the games, I

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Speaker 1: didn't you know, as the Lions pat to me get

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Speaker 1: a little sharper going forward, Like there are a few

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Speaker 1: real edges that sort of stick out to me. But

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Speaker 1: this one is a game that I see really coming

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Speaker 1: in it like closer to like the forty two you

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Speaker 1: know mark for me anyway, So I will go with that.

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Speaker 1: Let's go to your second pick. Who do you got?

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Speaker 2: All right? So I like the over in the Kansas

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Speaker 2: City Philadelphia game, which is at fifty four. So I

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Speaker 2: think we saw Philadelphia run the ball with their running

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Speaker 2: backs three times in their Monday night game against the Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: Like I don't know if that's going to be an

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Speaker 2: every week thing. There might be a great outcry to

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Speaker 2: establish the run this week, but I kind of think

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Speaker 2: that not the way they want to play. Their defense

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Speaker 2: didn't look especially good. I think that we are due

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Speaker 2: to see a more mistake free game from Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 2: and I think we talked about this earlier. Dan, the

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Speaker 2: Kansas City defense is bad, Like people don't realize how

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Speaker 2: bad it is. They are per the Football Outsiders DVOA Metric,

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Speaker 2: dead last both against the run and the pass. They

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Speaker 2: have the daily double for worst defense in both facets

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Speaker 2: of the game. So yeah, I think these two teams

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Speaker 2: might race up and down the field a little bit.

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Speaker 2: And even though I generally kind of like to stay

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Speaker 2: away from any overs above like fifty two and a

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Speaker 2: half fifty three, unless it's you know, two teams that

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Speaker 2: I really think, you know something like we said the

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Speaker 2: Mexico City game a couple of years ago, where I

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Speaker 2: was being confident in the over in that one. Sure,

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Speaker 2: you know, generally I don't love grabbing onto those, but

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Speaker 2: this one I think is going to race pretty quickly.

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Speaker 1: So do you have I mean, talk to me a

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Speaker 1: little bit about because casey defense stinks, as we have

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Speaker 1: talked about it, really it really does. And I don't

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Speaker 1: think that you know, casual betters have really gotten there yet.

303
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Speaker 1: But do you feel confident then that, you know, regardless

304
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Speaker 1: of how bad they are, that the Eagles that looked

305
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Speaker 1: like the most inept offense you know, I'd ever seen

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Speaker 1: basically are going to be able to take advantage of it,

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Speaker 1: you know, I guess probably in a way where they

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Speaker 1: have to most likely keep up with Kansas City, right.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I think they are going to have to

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Speaker 2: at least pay lip service to the running game a

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Speaker 2: little more, and I think that's kind of how they

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Speaker 2: should play, at least to maybe set up the play

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Speaker 2: action for Hurts a little bit. I mean, their first

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Speaker 2: few series the other day were like interception. I think

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Speaker 2: on the first series two three and outs. Then maybe

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Speaker 2: on their fourth series, I think they attempted their first

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Speaker 2: run and got like a twenty four yard game for

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Speaker 2: Miles Sanders, and.

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Speaker 1: Then you know, maybe around them again, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Maybe it hurts run after that, and then to two

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Speaker 2: incompletions and another pond. I mean like they have to

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Speaker 2: go about this a little bit differently, and I think

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Speaker 2: they will, And I'm still pretty pro Hurts. Actually, I

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Speaker 2: don't think he is the type of like versatile run

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Speaker 2: pass weapon who can do a lot of damage to

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Speaker 2: a defense like Kansas City's.

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Speaker 1: Well, I'm glad I'm not the last person on the

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Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts bandwagon. I will stick with you, all right,

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Speaker 1: all right, So that's I mean it is. It's a

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Speaker 1: high tuntal. It's fifty four I see to fifty four

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Speaker 1: and a half in a lot of places, So it's

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Speaker 1: gonna be a game. But rooting for offense is certainly

333
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Speaker 1: always better. Let's get ugly. Let's continue to get ugly.

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Speaker 2: Man.

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Speaker 1: You took one New York team. I think I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: take the other New York team. Technically, neither one of

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Speaker 1: these is New York teams, obviously, as my father was

338
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Speaker 1: used to say, they're both New Jersey teams. And there

339
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Speaker 1: is one New York team and it is the Buffalo Bills.

340
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Speaker 1: But I'm going to take the other New Jersey team

341
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Speaker 1: and it's the Giants getting seven and a half points

342
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Speaker 1: from the same It's you know, I feel like when

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Speaker 1: I'm taking these games and I look at it and

344
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Speaker 1: I'm like, I think there's a little bit of value here.

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Speaker 1: It's always on these terrible teams that I'm just like,

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Speaker 1: all right, I gotta hold my nose and sort of

347
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Speaker 1: do it. But here's where I go. Everything about this

348
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Speaker 1: just strikes me as a spot to take the Giants.

349
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Speaker 1: There are a lot of reasons, not to be clear,

350
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Speaker 1: Like when you look at it, I mean, this is

351
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Speaker 1: the Saints' first real home game, right because they weren't

352
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Speaker 1: home obviously in Week one, so I'm sure the crowd

353
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Speaker 1: is going to be fired up. I don't expect Darius

354
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Speaker 1: Slayton or Serling Shepherd to play in this game. Neither

355
00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:30,720
Speaker 1: one has practiced so far this week, as we record

356
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Speaker 1: that Blake Martinez is already out, their offensive line is injured.

357
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Speaker 1: But I think in part I'm fading the Saints a

358
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Speaker 1: little bit because, like, I know, they beat the Packers

359
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Speaker 1: pat but obviously you're a Packers fan. That just struck

360
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Speaker 1: me as much more about the Packers coming into that

361
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Speaker 1: game in Florida, maybe having trouble with the heat, not

362
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Speaker 1: really knowing what to expect, and just not bringing their

363
00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:54,720
Speaker 1: a game as opposed to the Saints putting up this

364
00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,480
Speaker 1: dominant performance. They look terrible in the second game against

365
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Speaker 1: the Panthers, and I know they beat the they beat

366
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Speaker 1: the Patriots handily in this last game, but you know,

367
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Speaker 1: that game could have pretty easily gone the other way.

368
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Speaker 1: I mean, if John Smith doesn't hand the other team

369
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Speaker 1: in interception, Jamis kind of threw the ball up in

370
00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:13,880
Speaker 1: the end zone there for a touchdown. Like that game

371
00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:16,320
Speaker 1: was not totally dominated by the Saints in the way

372
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Speaker 1: that the final score sort of suggests. I mean, you

373
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Speaker 1: look at Winston, He's averaging one hundred and twenty nine

374
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Speaker 1: passing yards per game, Like that's crazy. The total is

375
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Speaker 1: forty two, by the way, So I feel like, you know,

376
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Speaker 1: I talked about this so the last week too. When

377
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Speaker 1: you have such a low total and you have a

378
00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:35,320
Speaker 1: big spread, like something doesn't really work there in my

379
00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:38,680
Speaker 1: opinion usually, and so I don't really think that the

380
00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:41,119
Speaker 1: Saints are going to cover here. And really, when you

381
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Speaker 1: look kind of historically, especially with Daniel Jones, it is

382
00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:45,719
Speaker 1: kind of where this is kind of where Daniel Jones

383
00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:47,800
Speaker 1: comes out with a big one, right. A movie saw

384
00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:51,080
Speaker 1: him obviously against Washington in that game. Stinks at home,

385
00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:54,240
Speaker 1: but on the road he somehow is always covers ten

386
00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:57,320
Speaker 1: and four in his career against the spread on the road.

387
00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:01,040
Speaker 1: Winston is not good as a favorite generally speaking. Their

388
00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:03,480
Speaker 1: offensive line is tough, that Armstead is going to be out.

389
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Speaker 1: This just feels like a letdown spot for the Saints

390
00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:08,879
Speaker 1: off that big win. The Giants are absolutely desperate to

391
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Speaker 1: try to stay into it. I think given the lack

392
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Speaker 1: of wide receivers, they're going to design some runs for them.

393
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Speaker 1: They're gonna get Jennit Villes out. Takuon Barkley looks a

394
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:18,720
Speaker 1: lot healthier. So it's a gross but I'm getting over

395
00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:21,480
Speaker 1: I feel over a touchdown here. I'm gonna hold my

396
00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:23,120
Speaker 1: nose and take the Giants getting seven and a half

397
00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:23,679
Speaker 1: from the Saints.

398
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Speaker 2: Yeah, so this is any interesting one. I join you

399
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:30,560
Speaker 2: in your doubts about the Saints offense for certain. I

400
00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:33,760
Speaker 2: mean that's like, I don't know if they can continue

401
00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,840
Speaker 2: to win this way with Jameis Winston throwing like twenty

402
00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:39,600
Speaker 2: passes a game. I mean, this is the same Jameis

403
00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 2: Winston who led the NFL in passing attempts in twenty

404
00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:47,320
Speaker 2: nineteen has suddenly turned into this you know, nineteen seventy

405
00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:52,240
Speaker 2: six era game managing like quarterback. It's such a bizarre

406
00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:56,840
Speaker 2: formula that's working for them. And I mean you mentioned

407
00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:59,080
Speaker 2: the Armstead injury. I mean that's a big blow to

408
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:01,560
Speaker 2: a team that at least had, if you know, not

409
00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:05,080
Speaker 2: a lot of skill position talent other than Alvin Kamara,

410
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,439
Speaker 2: like did have that really good offensive line, and losing

411
00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:10,080
Speaker 2: a very good left tackle as a blow for sure.

412
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Speaker 2: The one thing that gives me pause here, Dan, is

413
00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:21,119
Speaker 2: that that defense looks really legitimate. Yeah, like they they're deep,

414
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:24,879
Speaker 2: I mean, like you know, overcoming the Marcus Davenport injury

415
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:28,040
Speaker 2: and stuffing a decent pass rush. And the other thing

416
00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:31,320
Speaker 2: was that before I came on with you, I was

417
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:35,720
Speaker 2: looking at the Massy Peabody website and their power rankings.

418
00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:41,159
Speaker 2: I was shocked to see New Orleans was second in

419
00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:45,640
Speaker 2: their power rankings. And so I don't know, maybe they

420
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,720
Speaker 2: do buy into the offense, and maybe they do think

421
00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:51,399
Speaker 2: this is a truly great defense, like the best in

422
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,919
Speaker 2: the NFL. I don't know, I do, but you know

423
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:58,440
Speaker 2: that gives me pause. Can Daniel Jones defeat a very

424
00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:02,040
Speaker 2: good defense. That yeah, that's probably why this would be.

425
00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,399
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily like the same side of it. I

426
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,480
Speaker 2: do not, but I might. It might be a stay

427
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 2: away from me.

428
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,840
Speaker 1: I think totally fine. I do not expect the Giants

429
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:12,760
Speaker 1: to win this game, to be clearer, but I do

430
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 1: think they're going to keep it close and again. And look,

431
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 1: you know, Rufus Peabody is the best. Their stuff is

432
00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:23,400
Speaker 1: fantastic when I've seen when I watched them play. Their

433
00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:27,080
Speaker 1: defense is good. But it's just something where I don't

434
00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,480
Speaker 1: know pat they and I know they've had injuries and

435
00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:32,240
Speaker 1: they've just overcome it. It doesn't strike me as a total

436
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,400
Speaker 1: lockdown unit for me. And I think, by the way,

437
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,840
Speaker 1: the Jamis version of himself, like the old Jamis wants

438
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:40,680
Speaker 1: to come out right. You kind of saw it against

439
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:43,119
Speaker 1: the Panthers, Like he's just like it's just like this

440
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 1: charging bull that's like, just let me go, man, I'm ready,

441
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:47,720
Speaker 1: I'm ready to go. Just just give me the word.

442
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:50,359
Speaker 1: And I think like if something happens, if like he

443
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:52,560
Speaker 1: throws a pick or there's a funnel and they'll fall behind,

444
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:54,879
Speaker 1: he'll come out a little bit. So you're getting the

445
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,359
Speaker 1: hook a little bit over the touchdown. I will take it,

446
00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,760
Speaker 1: but it is ugly, and that's all bets. I feel

447
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 1: like all good bets are ugly at this point. Let's

448
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:05,440
Speaker 1: get to your last one. When he got that, all.

449
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:09,200
Speaker 2: Right, So the last one is Carolina plus four at Dallas.

450
00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:14,120
Speaker 2: And for me, this is about two things. For one,

451
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:20,640
Speaker 2: it's that I legitimately believe in the Carolina offense and defense.

452
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:23,119
Speaker 2: Maybe the one thing that gives me a little bit

453
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:26,320
Speaker 2: of pauses the injury to j C. Horn, especially when

454
00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:29,959
Speaker 2: you're going up against an offense that brings Ceedee Lamb

455
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:33,879
Speaker 2: and Amari Cooper and so that's a problem. Like Horn

456
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 2: was a good looking rookie. But what I really like

457
00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 2: about this game, Dan, is that Matt Ruhle and Joe Brady,

458
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:46,159
Speaker 2: two coaches I really believe in, will have had nine

459
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:50,439
Speaker 2: full days to prepare for this game going up against

460
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,440
Speaker 2: Mike McCarthy. Dan, As you mentioned, I'm a Packer fan,

461
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,400
Speaker 2: he's maybe a coach who I don't have the greatest

462
00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:02,640
Speaker 2: degree of faith in on a short Yeah, so I'm

463
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 2: definitely playing the long week, short week thing here. And

464
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,280
Speaker 2: you know, I kind of think this should be more

465
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 2: like a three point spread to begin with rather than

466
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 2: the four.

467
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:14,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, give me the.

468
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:18,679
Speaker 2: Extra point and the work week differential, and I really

469
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:20,359
Speaker 2: like this one for the dog.

470
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, there are a lot of four and a halfs

471
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 1: now by the way out there, so it's moving even

472
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 1: up in that direction. And it's not surprising. The Cowboys

473
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 1: are a very public public sure now, I mean we

474
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 1: assume Christian Gaffrey's out for this game, so that doesn't

475
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,120
Speaker 1: scare you off about it at all? No, no, okay,

476
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:36,680
Speaker 1: all right. Another guy who I bet a prop at

477
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:38,879
Speaker 1: on is Robbie Anderson this week. I know it's going

478
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 1: to be gross, but check it out again. A video

479
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:41,439
Speaker 1: over at Betting Process.

480
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 2: Is this a squeaky wheel theory day?

481
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:46,159
Speaker 1: Might be Mike be a little squeaky wheel, might be

482
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:49,000
Speaker 1: a little squeaky wheel. It also might be that I

483
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 1: expect Diggs to kind of shadow DJ Moor and they

484
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:54,200
Speaker 1: don't have too many other places to go, and Dallas

485
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,399
Speaker 1: gives up a lot of high uh you know, explosive

486
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,919
Speaker 1: passing blazer. So yeah, there's a couple of reasons. But uh,

487
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 1: I won't I won't even give it away. YouTube dot

488
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,160
Speaker 1: Com slash betting pros coach check it out all right,

489
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:08,359
Speaker 1: So I you know, interesting Patty the mini buye versus

490
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 1: the short Week and the Matt and Mike McCarthy, who

491
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 1: I similar fit. By the way, fun fun story. When

492
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,359
Speaker 1: Adam Gase was hired, I remember everybody asking me about

493
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:17,920
Speaker 1: it and being like, oh, do you want McCarthy because

494
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 1: McCarthy was in the running, And I said, the reason

495
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:22,880
Speaker 1: why I would prefer Gas is because I think it's

496
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,359
Speaker 1: easier to move on from Gas than it is to

497
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 1: move on from Mike McCarthy, because I think McCarthy comes

498
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 1: with such a big mystique. So that was a point

499
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 1: in favor. And obviously we have moved on from Adam

500
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 1: Gates and I expect McCarthy to coach the Cowboys for

501
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:39,200
Speaker 1: the next seven years, so that'll be fine. But yeah,

502
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,719
Speaker 1: I didn't have a great feel for it, just because

503
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 1: realistically I think Cowboys, like they looked impressive in that

504
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 1: game against the Eagles, and I realized it was a

505
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 1: horrible Eagles game plan, but I think it was surprising

506
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 1: to me how impressive they looked in that game, just

507
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 1: so like I have almost a very very public sort

508
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 1: of a wow. Did not expect to see that I'm

509
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,439
Speaker 1: a little gun shy right now, you know, But I

510
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 1: think if I had to take a side, I probably

511
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 1: would take the four and a half because I take

512
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 1: the points. But I agree with you that closer to

513
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 1: a field goal probably does feel better either way. Though

514
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:10,919
Speaker 1: I'm staying away. I'm going to enjoy the rooting for

515
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,119
Speaker 1: you on it, though, I'm going to go to your

516
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 1: team though. Here Pat, now I'm not gonna go with

517
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 1: the spread. I'm going with the total though. Forty five

518
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 1: and a half I'm going under. Steelers against the Packers

519
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 1: is another example of two teams that play slow. So again,

520
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 1: forty five and a half, two teams that play slow,

521
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,920
Speaker 1: generally speaking, going up and this again, if you look,

522
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,640
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin has been an NFL coach for a very

523
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 1: long time, and I think like it's past narrative point

524
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 1: to see what happens with Tomlin's team. I mean, Pat,

525
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 1: when you bet on a Mike Tomlin team as like

526
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:49,199
Speaker 1: a favorite or a heavy favorite, he's almost always going

527
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 1: to let you down. They're almost never going to cover.

528
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 1: But when you bet on him as an underdog, he

529
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 1: gets that team up. That team plays better than you've

530
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:58,880
Speaker 1: ever seen when he gets points, and when he gets

531
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 1: a lot of points, when it's the nobody believes in

532
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 1: us thing, he can play up. So there's a reason

533
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 1: enough on that side to bet them on the spread.

534
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:07,199
Speaker 1: But for me, I think what that means in this

535
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:09,479
Speaker 1: game is that the defense is going to get up

536
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,399
Speaker 1: and the defense is going to play really well, because

537
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:14,640
Speaker 1: really they don't have the horses. You can rara all

538
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,719
Speaker 1: you want, you don't have the horses to have a

539
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 1: dominant offensive game, especially with Deontay Johnson banged up. He

540
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 1: was limited yesterday in practice. Juju Smith Schuster didn't practice yesterday.

541
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,439
Speaker 1: I don't know if either or both or neither is

542
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 1: going to play in this game. So I think realistically though,

543
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:30,880
Speaker 1: I do think that the defense is going to get

544
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 1: up for this game. Meanwhile, you've got the Packers. They

545
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 1: are coming off that monstrous win in that game. This

546
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 1: is a prime sort of letdown spot for that offense

547
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 1: coming into the game. So this strikes me as a

548
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 1: game that the Steelers want to turn into a little

549
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 1: bit of a slugfest because again, they don't have the

550
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 1: offensive firepower to go toe to toe with the Packers.

551
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 1: So I think they're going to want to kind of

552
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 1: slow the game down play with their defense. I think

553
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 1: the Packers probably come out a little flat because that's

554
00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 1: what happens generally when you come off these giants and

555
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,400
Speaker 1: everything like that. So again strikes me as a close game.

556
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:05,399
Speaker 1: I would lean the Steelers. We'll talk about that in

557
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:07,159
Speaker 1: a bit as we run through all the games, probably

558
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 1: getting the six and a half points. But this strikes

559
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 1: me as a close game classic like Mike Tomlin, keep

560
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 1: the game close, get his team up, and keep under

561
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:15,880
Speaker 1: So under forty five and a half in this game

562
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:16,400
Speaker 1: is my play.

563
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 2: So I like that one a lot because the Packers

564
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 2: are going to be continue to be without David Bacciari,

565
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 2: who's come back a while longer, and also likely without

566
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 2: Elkton Jenkins, who slides over from the left guard spot

567
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 2: to left tackle to guard that blind set. Now, Jenkins

568
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,919
Speaker 2: did not play against the forty nine Ers, and I

569
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 2: really expected the forty nine ers to get to Rogers

570
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 2: that game, and strangely they did not. They only sacked

571
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 2: him once and they're you know, a few hurries, but

572
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 2: for the most part, like they kept Rogers pretty clean,

573
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 2: especially at key times. I don't know if that's going

574
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 2: to be the case this week with Pittsburgh trying to

575
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 2: get off the mat after that pad home loss to

576
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 2: the Bengals. I mean, how many times have you seen

577
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 2: the Steelers lose it home to the Bengals over the

578
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 2: last couple of decades. I mean, that's an embarrassing loss

579
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 2: for them, and TJ. Watt trending toward playing yes my understanding,

580
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 2: which is going to be a big problem for that

581
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:12,640
Speaker 2: Green Bay offensive line. So I do like your under

582
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 2: call a lot here, and probably the side call too.

583
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 2: As much as as I hate to admit it, it does

584
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 2: look like kind of a trouble spot for the Packers.

585
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,440
Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't want to take the Steelers right just

586
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 1: because you watch them play pat and it's you know,

587
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:28,959
Speaker 1: just disgusting.

588
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:29,200
Speaker 2: Right.

589
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 1: We talked about it jokingly, you know on our fantasy

590
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,160
Speaker 1: show that you've got a lot of you know, Ben

591
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 1: Roethlisberger running for his life, running for his life and

592
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,440
Speaker 1: then getting off a three yard dumb pass to Nowgie Harris,

593
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 1: especially if those receivers are injured. But again, this is

594
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 1: the game. Tomlin's going to get up the defense. I

595
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 1: think it's going to be a slug fest, and again

596
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 1: I could see the Packers coming out a little flat

597
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 1: here off that huge win. That's a lot of times

598
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:52,680
Speaker 1: what happens. So we'll see about that. All right. So

599
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 1: let's very briefly run through the picks. I will run

600
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 1: them through again at the end, and then Pat and

601
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:57,679
Speaker 1: I are going to go through each of the spreads

602
00:27:57,720 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 1: really quick, or the over runners, whatever you want, Pat,

603
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 1: and we can talk about how we feel. You are

604
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 1: taking the Jets getting seven from the Titans, the Panthers

605
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:12,920
Speaker 1: getting four from the Cowboys, and the Kansas City Chiefs

606
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 1: and Philadelphia Eagles over fifty four. I'm going to take yes, Phew,

607
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 1: I got it, totally, totally got it right off the

608
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,360
Speaker 1: top of my head. Ravens and the Broncos are going

609
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:25,879
Speaker 1: under for me under forty five and a half. The

610
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:28,120
Speaker 1: Giants are getting seven and a half from the Saints,

611
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:30,680
Speaker 1: and the Steelers Packers also under forty five and a half.

612
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:32,880
Speaker 1: So I'm rooting for a lot of forty fours this week.

613
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 1: All right, Patt, are you ready to go through each

614
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 1: of the remaining games and make some bets. I'm going

615
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 1: to force you to pick aside. Ah, the Browns are

616
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 1: laying to to the Vikings in Minnesota.

617
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 2: What do you think I would reluctantly take the home

618
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 2: dog here, really reluctantly. Like I don't like betting Minnesota

619
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 2: at home in these close games. It seems like more

620
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 2: often than not the landing. But like, I do think

621
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 2: the Browns might be a little overvalued off the Bears

622
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 2: game and one of those things where they might be

623
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 2: a little fat and happy, and I don't know if

624
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 2: I expect them to win on the road.

625
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I uh, I think the Viking. I like, if

626
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 1: I was forced to pick a side, it's definitely the

627
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 1: Vikings getting to at home. And I thought about it, Pat,

628
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 1: I thought about it for my pick. I really did,

629
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 1: because I do think this is a spot to back

630
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 1: the Vikings, to back Zimmer as that defense gets like

631
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 1: a little more. Remember they had all these new players

632
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,200
Speaker 1: coming in and I know that, right, So I think

633
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 1: like he gives Zimmer a little time, he's bound to

634
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 1: sort of find the cohesive unit. The offense looks really

635
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 1: really good, and I do think it's a letdown spot

636
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 1: here for the Browns. So I would agree with you.

637
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 1: Any thoughts on the total of fifty one and a half.

638
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 2: At all, Yeah, I would probably play that under just

639
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 2: because I think that the Browns want to play a

640
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 2: little bit slow. They want to run the ball and

641
00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 2: play ball control.

642
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 1: So yep, I agree with you on that one. How

643
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 1: about the Chiefs. We talked about the over under. How

644
00:29:57,360 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 1: about the Chiefs laying seven on the road in Filmladelphia.

645
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 2: Oh, whenever I backed the Chiefs, I lose, So I'm

646
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 2: taking the points with the home dog.

647
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 1: Yeah.

648
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 2: I just don't think the Chiefs are good enough to

649
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 2: cover that sort of spread on the road.

650
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that that is fair. Okay, next game.

651
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 1: How about we already talked about the spread for the

652
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: Panthers and the Cowboys. What about the total at fifty

653
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 1: one and a half? Any feelings on that?

654
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that seems like a game that's capable

655
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 2: of getting over. I mean, even though the Panthers defense

656
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 2: has been really good and the Cowboys defense has been

657
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 2: better than expected, But I do feel like we're going

658
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 2: to see points in this one. I don't know, it's

659
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 2: probably a pretty true line. I mean it would be

660
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 2: to stay away from me.

661
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 1: I guess that's exactly how I feel. It's not a

662
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: line that I want to go near if I'm forced

663
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 1: to choose, Because I was like, whatever I'd probably go over,

664
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 1: but it's not a line that I want to go on.

665
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 1: Mentioned the Giants and the Saints. You know, I'm taking

666
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 1: the Giants getting seven and a half. How about the

667
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 1: total forty two? By the way, there's a lot of

668
00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 1: forty ones out there as well. There's you know, it's

669
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 1: all over the place. What do you think?

670
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 2: We talked about it not really buying the Saints offense,

671
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 2: and I sort of am buying the Saints defense. So

672
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 2: I guess under Like I think this could be a

673
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 2: real nails on chalkboard kind of game.

674
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it's gross and it's low. It's a really

675
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 1: low total, But again, I think it's going to be

676
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 1: a close game, and I think both teams are gonna

677
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 1: have a little trouble scoring generally speaking. So I also

678
00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 1: lean for the under. And we talked about the Titans

679
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 1: and the Jets there spread the total is forty four

680
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 1: and a half. Any thoughts on.

681
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 2: That another one that I would probably play under. Yeah, yeah,

682
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 2: I mean we know that the Jets are going to

683
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 2: have a little bit of trouble moving the ball, even

684
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:44,840
Speaker 2: if it's against not a great defense, and the Titans

685
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 2: are going to want to play slow especially with those

686
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 2: receivers out.

687
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I think. I think it's just sort

688
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 1: of a lot of Derrick Henry, a lot of clock moving.

689
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 1: I think under as well as the play was almost

690
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:57,640
Speaker 1: one of mine as well. But because you took the

691
00:31:57,680 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 1: Jets and the spread, I was gonna let it go.

692
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 1: Little Birdie told me that you have very specific feelings

693
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 1: on our next game, and that is the Bears laying

694
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 1: three now to the Lions in Chicago in the total

695
00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 1: of forty two.

696
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 2: Oh Dan, I so wanted to take the over in

697
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 2: this game. I really wanted to take the over. I

698
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 2: think that Lions secondary is just absolutely defenseless with Jeff

699
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 2: Acuda and Melafan wu outs, and it was not a

700
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 2: good secondary to begin with. They don't have the pass

701
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 2: rush to like cover up for that deficiency. And I

702
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 2: think Fields is going to bounce back. We talked about

703
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 2: this on the show, Like Matt Nagy may be a

704
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 2: lame duck, but he's forty three, Like he wants to

705
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 2: have a coaching career for another twenty twenty five years,

706
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 2: and he after that debacle last week, is going to

707
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:48,480
Speaker 2: be coaching for his life. Like is he going to

708
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:50,360
Speaker 2: get another spot in the NFL. Or is he going

709
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:52,760
Speaker 2: to be like, you know, the offensive coordinator at the

710
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 2: University of Montana. So the thing that scares me off this,

711
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 2: though Dan and I do think like the Bears, secondary

712
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 2: has its vulnerabilities too. The thing that scares me away

713
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 2: from this is that it is supposed to rain a

714
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 2: lot in Chicago on Sunday. And I'm generally one who

715
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 2: believes the weather effects thing is overstated a lot, except

716
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 2: for you know, the crazy win games or like the

717
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 2: heavy rain games. But this could be kind of a

718
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 2: heavy rain game. And the Chicago Park District, which keeps

719
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 2: up the Soldier field turf has kind of a reputation

720
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 2: for not doing the best job of it. It used

721
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 2: to be really bad. I think they've gotten a little better,

722
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm a little worried about field conditions and

723
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 2: I just don't know if this game plays quite the

724
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 2: way I thought it was going to if there's you know,

725
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 2: a wet field and the slippery ball involved.

726
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 1: So yeah, well, so by the way you feel, you

727
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 1: feel confident field is going to be under center, as

728
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 1: it could be any one of three qbs. As we

729
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 1: record this, Pat, I know.

730
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 2: That the mad Naggy thing another bit of brilliance for me,

731
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 2: I am confident. I mean it would just be such

732
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 2: a like, such an unpopular decision if he turned this.

733
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,239
Speaker 1: This is the spot where you should allow fields to

734
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 1: play against the Detroit Lions defense like that, right, see

735
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:21,759
Speaker 1: if you can bounce them back. So that's what I

736
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 1: would do. Anyway. I will say that the consensus spread

737
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 1: is three, but it is more books have it at

738
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 1: three than any other thing. But there are a lot

739
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 1: of books a two and a half. I like the

740
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,359
Speaker 1: Bears in this spot right. That was also something which

741
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 1: I debated picking as well. I understand now the weather

742
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:39,920
Speaker 1: is the weather. If it's bad, especially if the field

743
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:42,640
Speaker 1: is bad, that's an equalizer a little bit. But I

744
00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 1: get that the lines have played hard. That's great. They

745
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 1: should have gotten destroyed by the Ravens last game. If

746
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:49,359
Speaker 1: Mark he'th Brown can hold on to you know, one

747
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:51,920
Speaker 1: of three touchdown basses, then they get blown out of

748
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 1: the water. The Lions play hard, kudos to them, but

749
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 1: this is the Bears, as bad as they have looked,

750
00:34:57,560 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 1: are better team. And I think if you get it

751
00:34:59,800 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 1: on field goal in particular, I definitely like it. And

752
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:03,919
Speaker 1: there are a bunch out there right now. Points bet

753
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 1: for example at two and a half, but even at three,

754
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 1: I lean towards the Bears regardless. Let's go to Washington

755
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:15,759
Speaker 1: visiting the Falcons. The Falcons are getting a point and

756
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 1: a half here at home, and the totals forty seven

757
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 1: and a half.

758
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:24,680
Speaker 2: It's crazy, Dan, but I really think this Washington team

759
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 2: is like better than it's showed. It should have a

760
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:33,880
Speaker 2: pass rush. I don't understand why this is, according to DVOA,

761
00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 2: like the fourth worst defense in the league right now.

762
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 2: It just seems like they have better personnel than that.

763
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:40,719
Speaker 2: So I think they're gonna pick it up on the

764
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 2: defensive end. And I just don't think much of this

765
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 2: Atlanta team, So you know I'll lay that point, even

766
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 2: on the road with a team that's playing a backup quarterback.

767
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 1: Yep, I have already made this bet. Just to be clear,

768
00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 1: I have taken Washington. I am with you on this.

769
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 1: Washington strikes me as a much better team than we've seen,

770
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 1: even without Fitzpatrick. I think Taylor Heineke has been competent.

771
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 1: One thing is that, like before recording this, I see

772
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 1: Antonio Gibson might be dealing with an injury and didn't

773
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:10,880
Speaker 1: practice today, so I'm assuming that he's fine obviously, but

774
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 1: that might make a difference a little bit. But either way,

775
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 1: I do think that that Washington wins this game. And

776
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 1: obviously it's er point and a half, so I think

777
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 1: they cover. So I am with you there. Colts are

778
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:25,480
Speaker 1: visiting the Dolphins. The Colts are getting two points. Total

779
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:27,359
Speaker 1: is forty two and a half.

780
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 2: Leaning the Dolphins here. Just yeah, this is a terrible game.

781
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 2: I couldn't I couldn't play this either way. Like, if

782
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 2: you forced me to pick a side, I'd probably go

783
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:42,880
Speaker 2: with the home team. But yeah, it's a stay away.

784
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 1: I want nothing to do with this game I can make.

785
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:47,640
Speaker 1: I mean, I can make a case for either either team.

786
00:36:47,960 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 2: I'm not sure I even want to watch it.

787
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:53,399
Speaker 1: Oh no, we have to. It's our job watch that game.

788
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 1: But I agree, it's just kind of going to be

789
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 1: an ugly game. Both teams need to win right now,

790
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:00,680
Speaker 1: so you know, we'll see how it goes. But yeah,

791
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 1: it's a desperate Colts team against the Dolphins team that

792
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:06,480
Speaker 1: you know, obviously without two don't know what they could do.

793
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:09,160
Speaker 1: So total stay away for me. How about again, these

794
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:11,120
Speaker 1: Giants spreads? We talked about it on Monday. The Bills

795
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 1: are laying sixteen and a half now, down from seventeen

796
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 1: to the Texans at home, you know in Buffalo forty seven.

797
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 2: Over under if I so, yeah, I tend not to

798
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 2: play these big lines, but I would probably play the Bills,

799
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 2: believe they or not in this one. I just maybe

800
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:30,759
Speaker 2: it's another thing. Maybe I should be going the other

801
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:33,720
Speaker 2: way with the Texans, having had the nine full days

802
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:35,640
Speaker 2: of prep for this one, but I just kind of

803
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 2: feel like it's not gonna work out well for them.

804
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 2: They're just really overmanned, and this Bill's defense is very good,

805
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 2: and I can't see the Texans grinding out more than

806
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,440
Speaker 2: like ten points here. I mean they're implied point totals

807
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 2: like fifteen and a half. Yeah, I don't know how

808
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:50,200
Speaker 2: they get there.

809
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 1: I agree, I agree. I mean it's not a game

810
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:56,280
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take because I usually don't take these giants spreads.

811
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:59,839
Speaker 1: But yeah, it's really difficult to see how they're gonna

812
00:37:59,840 --> 00:38:01,319
Speaker 1: be able to put up points. The Bills defense is

813
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 1: really good. They're playing really really well right now. And yeah,

814
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:06,719
Speaker 1: I mean I could if you're forcing me to choose

815
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 1: a side, I would take the bills like I will,

816
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 1: I will, you know, deal with the the possibility of

817
00:38:12,160 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 1: a backdoor cover. But yeah, I don't know how they

818
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:15,799
Speaker 1: put up points. So I'm with you. This is an

819
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:18,760
Speaker 1: interesting one here that I'm looking forward to watching. Seahawks

820
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 1: are visiting the forty nine Ers. The Seahawks are getting

821
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 1: three and the totals fifty two.

822
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 2: I think I'd take the Niners here. Again, it's just

823
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 2: that I think that Seattle defense is a lot worse

824
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:34,360
Speaker 2: than people realize. So that's kind of that's kind of

825
00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:35,480
Speaker 2: my angle on this game.

826
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:38,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I take the Seahawks. I think if

827
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 1: I had to go one way, I just it's rough

828
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 1: that they're one and two. You're gonna give me Russell

829
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:45,880
Speaker 1: Wilson down one and two, Like this just strikes me

830
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 1: as the game that worst case, he's just gonna take over.

831
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:50,839
Speaker 1: And I'm not that impressed with the forty nine Ers

832
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:53,960
Speaker 1: right now, like I They're they're, you know, a fine

833
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:56,760
Speaker 1: team and everything like that, but you know, with Jimmy

834
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,399
Speaker 1: g under center, just not an offense that scares you.

835
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:02,359
Speaker 1: Not No offense I think can really exploit the deficiencies

836
00:39:02,520 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 1: in the Seahawks defense. And again you've got Russell Wilson

837
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:08,400
Speaker 1: right now coming off you know, bad loss not you know,

838
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:10,920
Speaker 1: a couple bad losses in a row just strikes me

839
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 1: as you know, he's going to come out on top

840
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 1: of here. Again, not a game I'm betting necessarily, but

841
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 1: if I was forced to, I think I would take

842
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:20,720
Speaker 1: the Seahawks in this one. How about the Cardinals visiting

843
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:22,439
Speaker 1: the Rams. The Rams are laying four and a half.

844
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 1: Total is fifty five.

845
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:27,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I this was another one I looked at and

846
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 2: I was just I could not choose side or either

847
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 2: end of that total. Like it was just, I mean,

848
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 2: it seems like it's a good line. It's a very

849
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 2: sharp line both ways.

850
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:43,799
Speaker 1: I agree, I'm not touching the total. I mean it's

851
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 1: fifty five. Like, there's no way I'm taking an under

852
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 1: in this game. You can make it seventy and so,

853
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 1: like I'm just going to sit out right out right.

854
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 1: But at the same time, fifty five is huge. I

855
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:54,319
Speaker 1: think I'd say a way, if I had to pick

856
00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:56,880
Speaker 1: a side, I'd probably take the Rams. But it's not

857
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:58,719
Speaker 1: a game that I feel good about at all, Like

858
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:00,360
Speaker 1: I you know, even if the Rams show to a

859
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 1: big lead, you can easily see the Cardinals sort of

860
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:05,160
Speaker 1: covering and talk about the total in this one. Would

861
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 1: you take the side here with the Steelers? You know,

862
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:08,840
Speaker 1: I lean that way. The Packers are laying six, and

863
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 1: after the Steelers in Green.

864
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:15,879
Speaker 2: Bay, I would, yeah, the angry Steelers Tomlin firing these

865
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 2: guys up after the bad, bad home loss to Cincinnati.

866
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:21,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, yep, all right, I would as well. And we

867
00:40:22,000 --> 00:40:24,919
Speaker 1: all talked about this one. The Ravens are getting one

868
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:27,879
Speaker 1: in Denver. You have picked a side because you have

869
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:31,520
Speaker 1: to contractfully obligated by whatever weird you're in, or you're

870
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:33,440
Speaker 1: taking the Broncos laying one. I would probably take the

871
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:36,799
Speaker 1: Ravens getting one. Assuming Lamar is okay. I believe I

872
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 1: just saw something that say he did not practice again today,

873
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 1: but he reported obviously he's out or running away, but whatever,

874
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:46,880
Speaker 1: that's what is all right. Sunday night, everybody is waiting

875
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 1: for the game. The Bucks are visiting the Patriots. The

876
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 1: Bucks right now are laying seven points and the total

877
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 1: is forty nine.

878
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:59,399
Speaker 2: Oh man, I have to take the home dog here,

879
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:03,920
Speaker 2: just have to. I know. It's Brady Mania and a

880
00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:06,840
Speaker 2: lot of people just can't conceive of Brady and Gronk

881
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 2: losing their homecoming game. But I just there's no way

882
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:14,879
Speaker 2: I am giving seven points to a Bill Belichick team

883
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:17,359
Speaker 2: at home. I just can't do it.

884
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:22,400
Speaker 1: I am not betting on this game whatsoever. I think honestly,

885
00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 1: if I had to, I would I Pat. I am.

886
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 1: I am Bill Belizick no matter what. Is an incredible,

887
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:33,480
Speaker 1: incredible coach. But I am slowly starting to come around

888
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 1: to the fact that if he doesn't have Tom Brady

889
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:39,759
Speaker 1: on his team, I have no idea what we would

890
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 1: think of Bill Belichick at this point. You know, I

891
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 1: know he's a great I just don't know if he

892
00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:46,239
Speaker 1: has if he has the ability right now. And I

893
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,919
Speaker 1: don't trust Mac Jones whatsoever like that. That's also part

894
00:41:48,920 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 1: of it. Even if they the defense steps up, I

895
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 1: just don't know if they keep this game close, I'm

896
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:55,880
Speaker 1: not betting it, to be clear, But.

897
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 2: What was the total on this one? Again? Dan?

898
00:41:57,239 --> 00:41:57,839
Speaker 1: Forty nine?

899
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:03,759
Speaker 2: Forty nine? Okay, Yeah, that's a stay away. Yeah, I

900
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:04,720
Speaker 2: think that's a good line.

901
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 1: I think if I had to, I'd go under. But

902
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:09,640
Speaker 1: I don't want it whatsoever. I just want to sit back,

903
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 1: Pat you and I'll be doing the Fantasy Recap show

904
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 1: right around that time. We'll dB al right that we'll

905
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 1: sit back and watch it for sure. Last one Monday

906
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:21,200
Speaker 1: night game, the Raiders are visiting the Chargers. The Chargers

907
00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:23,560
Speaker 1: are laying a field goal total fifty one and a half.

908
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:28,839
Speaker 2: Oh fun game. Yeah, I believe a little bit more

909
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:31,839
Speaker 2: in the Chargers. I'd be inclined to take them. And

910
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:34,440
Speaker 2: I do think these teams are going to race up

911
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:36,840
Speaker 2: and down the field, even though these defenses are very

912
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:40,120
Speaker 2: statistically average, both of them, just like in the middle

913
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:43,800
Speaker 2: of the road defenses. But these offenses are both humming,

914
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 2: you know, as long as the Chargers can stop these

915
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:49,560
Speaker 2: motion penalties that nullified touchdowns. They've had like three of

916
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:51,799
Speaker 2: those in the last two weeks, but other than that,

917
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:55,319
Speaker 2: and it still really hasn't slowed them down that much.

918
00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 2: So I think this is going to be a fun

919
00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:58,480
Speaker 2: way to close out Week four.

920
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, these are Sunday night game, Monday game, both just

921
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:05,959
Speaker 1: awesome football games to be watching. I would lean over

922
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:08,760
Speaker 1: and I would lean Chargers for both of these, because

923
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:11,759
Speaker 1: this is nice to see the Chargers finally kind of

924
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:15,000
Speaker 1: doing what I think we all thought they could be doing,

925
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:18,360
Speaker 1: you know, either last year and before the inevitable injuries

926
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 1: hit Pat, thank you very much for pinch hitting. I

927
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 1: really appreciate it. I love talking to you. As you know,

928
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:26,480
Speaker 1: we do a lot of podcasts together. I won't ask

929
00:43:26,520 --> 00:43:27,960
Speaker 1: you where everybody can find more of you in your

930
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:29,959
Speaker 1: work because it's a fantasy pros and at betting pros

931
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:31,880
Speaker 1: and all the good stuff. So don't worry about that.

932
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 1: Let me very quickly again, they'll run through our picks

933
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 1: just so everybody has them in case you missed it.

934
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 1: Pat's taking the Jets getting seven over the Titans, the

935
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:42,800
Speaker 1: Panthers getting four over the Cowboys, and the Chiefs and

936
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 1: the Eagles over fifty four points. I'm taking the Ravens

937
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:47,840
Speaker 1: and the Broncos to go under forty five and a half,

938
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 1: the Giants getting seven and a half against the Saints,

939
00:43:51,080 --> 00:43:54,520
Speaker 1: and the Steelers and the Packers under forty five and

940
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 1: a half. As usual, we'll be back on Monday talking

941
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 1: about our instant reaction into the week five lines. In

942
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 1: the meantime, enjoy your football everybody. I'll talk to you

943
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:03,880
Speaker 1: again then

944
00:44:22,280 --> 00:44:22,320
Speaker 2: M