1
00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:05,120
Speaker 1: August fifteenth marked the seventieth anniversary of independence for India

2
00:00:05,160 --> 00:00:10,600
Speaker 1: and Pakistan Happy birthday or not. Accompanying independence was the

3
00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:15,840
Speaker 1: partition of colonial India into the two countries, with Pakistan

4
00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:21,640
Speaker 1: intended as a homeland for the subcontinent's Muslim population. The

5
00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:25,160
Speaker 1: sectarian basis of the carve up has been well documented

6
00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:29,000
Speaker 1: a much discussed, along with the divergent political history of

7
00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:32,920
Speaker 1: the two countries, including conflicts between the two. Yes, I

8
00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:36,280
Speaker 1: know there are now three countries, Bangladesh having broken away

9
00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:40,239
Speaker 1: from Pakistan in nineteen seventy one. We're going to take

10
00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:45,080
Speaker 1: a different tack. What were the economic underpinnings of independence

11
00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:49,440
Speaker 1: of partition and how have the countries fared economically since then?

12
00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:53,640
Speaker 1: And to what extent does their separation at birth explain

13
00:00:53,720 --> 00:01:07,560
Speaker 1: their economic performance. Welcome to Benchmark, a show about the

14
00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:11,959
Speaker 1: global economy. I'm Daniel moss I write about global economics

15
00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:15,160
Speaker 1: for Bloomberg View in New York, and I'm Scott Landman

16
00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:18,560
Speaker 1: and economics editor with Bloomberg in Washington. Well. To help

17
00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:21,839
Speaker 1: us work through the economics of partition, we have two

18
00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:26,240
Speaker 1: guests in very different parts of the world with different perspectives.

19
00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:29,479
Speaker 1: Here in New York. We have our colleague Faris Khan,

20
00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:34,080
Speaker 1: a senior editor on the Corporate Finance team at Bloomberg News,

21
00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:38,760
Speaker 1: whose family left India for Pakistan as part of an

22
00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:43,959
Speaker 1: economic and commercial strategy. Our second guest is Nissa Jari, Asia,

23
00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:48,360
Speaker 1: editor for Bloomberg View and author of Midnight's Furies, The

24
00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:52,920
Speaker 1: Deadly Legacy of India's Partition. He joins us from Bangkok.

25
00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:58,040
Speaker 1: Nisset and Faris, welcome to the show. Great to be here, Thanks, terrific.

26
00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:03,080
Speaker 1: India is perceived be booming and Pakistan is perceived to be,

27
00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:08,120
Speaker 1: shall we say, economically challenged. Anything wrong with this picture?

28
00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:12,440
Speaker 1: I'd say that picture is broadly correct, but of course

29
00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:16,360
Speaker 1: it can be exaggerated. You know, in Pakistan isn't doing

30
00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:19,919
Speaker 1: as badly as many would sink. In India isn't doing

31
00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:22,280
Speaker 1: as well as some of its champions would like to

32
00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:24,120
Speaker 1: would like to argue. I mean, if you look at

33
00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:29,280
Speaker 1: where Pakistan is today, they've they've emerged from i MF

34
00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:33,760
Speaker 1: bailout package. The stock mark has been doing relatively well.

35
00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:36,560
Speaker 1: Growth is hovering around four or five percent, which isn't,

36
00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:38,880
Speaker 1: you know, as high as India, but it's but it's

37
00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:41,720
Speaker 1: enough to put the economy on a fairly positive path.

38
00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:45,800
Speaker 1: On the flip side, you look at India, Uh, they've

39
00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:49,560
Speaker 1: sort of lost their ranking as the as the fastest

40
00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:52,440
Speaker 1: growing big economy in the world um after the shock

41
00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:56,080
Speaker 1: of demonetization last fall and after the introduction of this

42
00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:59,360
Speaker 1: new GST tax this summer. They're still struggling to get

43
00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:01,880
Speaker 1: private and smith going. They're still struggling with a bad

44
00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:05,120
Speaker 1: loans problem, and above all the struggling to create jobs

45
00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:10,120
Speaker 1: even though they will have vast and growing population. Faris

46
00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:12,680
Speaker 1: any thoughts, I would agree with what nest It is saying,

47
00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:15,680
Speaker 1: but I would add certainly when it comes to Pakistan,

48
00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:19,160
Speaker 1: there has been recently a positive science from the economy,

49
00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:24,000
Speaker 1: but the recent ousting of the Prime Minister of Pakistan,

50
00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:27,960
Speaker 1: the former primis and Navasharif, after he got ensnared in

51
00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:32,600
Speaker 1: a corruption scandal does not really bode wealth for stability

52
00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:35,320
Speaker 1: in that country. And that speaks to the biggest problem

53
00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:38,680
Speaker 1: in Pakistan is that it goes it has been constantly

54
00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:42,800
Speaker 1: trapped in a period of stru guilty where the military

55
00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:45,680
Speaker 1: and the civil institutions are wine for power in the

56
00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:50,560
Speaker 1: military usually ends up with the upper hand and whatever

57
00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:54,560
Speaker 1: economic gains, social gains that countries sees keep on getting

58
00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:58,600
Speaker 1: eroded by the struggle between these various factions. Were the

59
00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:03,080
Speaker 1: fates of the two kinds trees sealed in partition? I mean,

60
00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:05,880
Speaker 1: where they have they been on this kind of predetermined

61
00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:10,000
Speaker 1: course or were there things that happened in the intervening

62
00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:13,640
Speaker 1: years that have sort of set these plans on course

63
00:04:13,640 --> 00:04:16,719
Speaker 1: and the economies and the directions that they've been going. No,

64
00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:19,640
Speaker 1: I think you know, it's important to remember that, Um,

65
00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:22,560
Speaker 1: this hasn't been the course that both countries have followed

66
00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:26,400
Speaker 1: since partition. I mean early on, um, you know, India

67
00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:31,839
Speaker 1: devalue the routbe in and Pakistan didn't. And that stronger currency,

68
00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:34,320
Speaker 1: combined with the commodity boom that was sparked by the

69
00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:39,799
Speaker 1: Korean War, allowed Pakistana accumulated surpluses which they needed to industrialize.

70
00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:43,520
Speaker 1: So for the next three decades its economy average growth

71
00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:46,560
Speaker 1: around six percent, you know, double what what India was

72
00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:48,719
Speaker 1: managing at the time when it was under central planning.

73
00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:53,560
Speaker 1: It was only after India liberalized in that it's economically

74
00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:56,960
Speaker 1: economic fortunes of the two countries really reversed. UH and

75
00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:59,840
Speaker 1: India started to fulfill its potential and and and take

76
00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:03,000
Speaker 1: advantage of all the advantages that did have, including it

77
00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:05,320
Speaker 1: the size of its population, the size of its market,

78
00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:10,960
Speaker 1: and so on. So it wasn't inevitable that India would

79
00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:15,440
Speaker 1: be the economic superpower, but certainly it had inbuilt advantages

80
00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:19,040
Speaker 1: that Pakistan did not. I agree. I mean, there was

81
00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:20,760
Speaker 1: a saying when I was growing up in Pakistan in

82
00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:24,279
Speaker 1: nineteen eighties that in Pakistan you have more rich people

83
00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:28,120
Speaker 1: and a poor government, while in India you have a

84
00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:30,920
Speaker 1: rich government and poor people. And I think that has

85
00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:34,640
Speaker 1: sort of reversed when India went through the path of liberalization.

86
00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:38,919
Speaker 1: Pakistan did certainly see some strong periods of growth in

87
00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:43,400
Speaker 1: the nineteen sixties because of the economic macroeconomic policies was pursuing,

88
00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:47,680
Speaker 1: but those games were never made into permanent games because

89
00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:51,200
Speaker 1: whatever growth you might see would also be accompanied by

90
00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:54,839
Speaker 1: a lot of political instability, which again aid into those games.

91
00:05:54,880 --> 00:05:58,039
Speaker 1: And finally, after a strong period growth in the nineteen sixties,

92
00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,400
Speaker 1: the country entered the nineteen inties in a state where

93
00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:05,039
Speaker 1: basically the country were dismembered. So let's get back a

94
00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:08,039
Speaker 1: little bit in time here. First, tell us some more

95
00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:13,440
Speaker 1: about your family's business and why Pakistan looked better white acting,

96
00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:17,320
Speaker 1: so my my family was not in business per se.

97
00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:22,680
Speaker 1: Most of my father's side who came to Pakistan did

98
00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:25,920
Speaker 1: not came right in the aftermath of partition. It was

99
00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:28,520
Speaker 1: not that they were forced to leave where they were

100
00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:32,200
Speaker 1: in North India what is non North India. Immediately after partition,

101
00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:35,040
Speaker 1: a lot of Muslims from North India and others as

102
00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:38,839
Speaker 1: other parts of India came to Pakistan. Not so much

103
00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:43,800
Speaker 1: that they were fleeing oppression in India, but there were

104
00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:46,360
Speaker 1: a lot of opportunities for them in the new state

105
00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:50,640
Speaker 1: of Pakistan Pakistan. When Pakistan was created, the kind of

106
00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:54,160
Speaker 1: institutions that the British left or existed India, there were

107
00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:58,480
Speaker 1: fewer of them in Pakistan terms of civilian infrastructure, government infrastructure.

108
00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:02,040
Speaker 1: So there was a great a man in the new

109
00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:05,560
Speaker 1: state for people to come in and man these new positions,

110
00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:10,160
Speaker 1: and North Indian Muslim especially who were also some of

111
00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,960
Speaker 1: the biggest advocates of Pakistan. For them, it was natural

112
00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:15,360
Speaker 1: for them now to come and take over those jobs

113
00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:18,680
Speaker 1: that they could be jobs as bureaucrats in the new

114
00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:21,600
Speaker 1: in the in the new State Bank of Pakistan, in

115
00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:24,640
Speaker 1: the new airport structure, in the new educational institutions. So

116
00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:27,800
Speaker 1: they were the big boom, uh, and you needed people,

117
00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:31,320
Speaker 1: so many of my relatives came to take over those jobs.

118
00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:36,400
Speaker 1: My father, he came to Pakistan in the early nineteen sixties,

119
00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:40,560
Speaker 1: much later. Again for him, it was that his sisters

120
00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:43,520
Speaker 1: were already there and there were still a lot of

121
00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:46,320
Speaker 1: jobs available in Pakistan but not enough people. So naturally

122
00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:49,600
Speaker 1: it was to his advantage to leave Indian and come

123
00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:53,520
Speaker 1: to Pakistan. My mother came later when she married my

124
00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:56,800
Speaker 1: dad in the nineteen seventies. So fairest did they actually

125
00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:00,480
Speaker 1: get to enjoy the fruits of those economic upper communities?

126
00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:03,800
Speaker 1: Are they still doing that today? I mean what kind

127
00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:07,760
Speaker 1: of work exactly? Um? Were they and have they been?

128
00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:11,840
Speaker 1: So my father took on a differences. First he was

129
00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:16,120
Speaker 1: working for an airline, then he joined Pakistan Radio, and

130
00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:18,680
Speaker 1: then he became a producer in Pakistan television and this

131
00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:22,120
Speaker 1: is all in one decade, uh, and then he moved

132
00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:26,320
Speaker 1: into public relations after that. Yes, so they certainly did

133
00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:30,760
Speaker 1: enjoy um the boom that wasn't taking place in Pakistan

134
00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:34,400
Speaker 1: well into the sixties and the seventies, and to some

135
00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:38,840
Speaker 1: extent the nineteen eighties. My parents were what you can

136
00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:41,840
Speaker 1: describe as the very small part of the very small

137
00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:47,559
Speaker 1: urban upper middle class educated professionals who were in Karachi

138
00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:54,199
Speaker 1: or Lahore Islamban uh and they definitely benefited, but the

139
00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:56,720
Speaker 1: state and the country at large, I don't think was

140
00:08:56,840 --> 00:09:00,200
Speaker 1: enjoying the same levels of growth. Uh my my. There

141
00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:03,600
Speaker 1: she moved to Pakistan and right after, right before the

142
00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:07,760
Speaker 1: seventy one war, so her first experience after six months arriving,

143
00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:11,640
Speaker 1: and she's an academic, it was that six months after

144
00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:14,120
Speaker 1: coming to Pakistan, there's a war between the two countries

145
00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:15,960
Speaker 1: and she could not longer be in touch with her

146
00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:18,920
Speaker 1: own parents for I guess it was a couple of years.

147
00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:23,160
Speaker 1: So it was a little bit of trauma involved for

148
00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:25,880
Speaker 1: her at that time, and and she focused on her

149
00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:30,840
Speaker 1: academic career in Pakistan at that time. But so so

150
00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:35,600
Speaker 1: they were part of the upper middle class group in Karachi.

151
00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:41,520
Speaker 1: So Pakistan began to fall behind after this very promising start.

152
00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:44,240
Speaker 1: And nestaid, how much of that can be attributed to

153
00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:48,720
Speaker 1: these on off periods of military rule and why doesn't

154
00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:52,520
Speaker 1: the military play any significant role in India's political life

155
00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:56,000
Speaker 1: by comparison, Well, for a couple of reasons. UM's take

156
00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:58,760
Speaker 1: your second question. First, Uh, you know this, this is

157
00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:01,000
Speaker 1: a notable difference between the two countries that there's never

158
00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:04,440
Speaker 1: been a coup in India and Um, part of it

159
00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:09,080
Speaker 1: goes back to the fact that India at partition had stronger,

160
00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:14,520
Speaker 1: more well established and better staffed institutions. Um, they were

161
00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:18,959
Speaker 1: inheriting the machinery of the raj Um, they had people

162
00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:21,920
Speaker 1: in place, people have been working these jobs for for

163
00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:25,480
Speaker 1: quite a long time. And Uh, you know, the military

164
00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:28,959
Speaker 1: had always adhere to civilian rule there in Pakistan. On

165
00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:33,160
Speaker 1: any other hand, you had faced a situation where you

166
00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:36,600
Speaker 1: really felt after the riots of partition, and which remember

167
00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:39,719
Speaker 1: something like fourteen million people across the border from one

168
00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:43,319
Speaker 1: side to the other, nearly a million people may have died. Uh,

169
00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:47,720
Speaker 1: you had a real sense in Pakistan that India posed

170
00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:50,720
Speaker 1: an existential threat, that it had never accepted partition and

171
00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:53,680
Speaker 1: didn't want Pakistan to exist and hope to reabsorb it

172
00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:56,959
Speaker 1: one day. And then the other important thing is that

173
00:10:57,040 --> 00:11:00,719
Speaker 1: the founder of Pakistan, Muhammad Ali Jinna, die barely a

174
00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:03,920
Speaker 1: year after independence. So you had a situation where you

175
00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:07,360
Speaker 1: had sort of weak and confused civilian leadership. The army

176
00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,880
Speaker 1: was the strongest and most professional institution in the country,

177
00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:14,320
Speaker 1: and it was natural for people to look to them

178
00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:17,480
Speaker 1: for stability UM and that was a role they claimed

179
00:11:17,520 --> 00:11:20,439
Speaker 1: for themselves UM and so they you know, that led

180
00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:23,920
Speaker 1: to one of the first coups uh and and subsequent

181
00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:26,160
Speaker 1: ones as well. They've they've also portrayed themselves as the

182
00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:30,160
Speaker 1: defenders of Pakistan's sovereignty against this threat from next door

183
00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:34,760
Speaker 1: in India. UM And, as Farah said earlier, that's right.

184
00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:38,120
Speaker 1: The constant back and forth between civilian and military rule

185
00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:43,040
Speaker 1: UM works against stability UM and discourages investment. I mean,

186
00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:45,839
Speaker 1: you see what's happened to Pakistan and just since nine

187
00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:48,560
Speaker 1: eleven with the degree of violence that they've had to

188
00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:52,600
Speaker 1: deal with UM that that scares people off UH and

189
00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:57,040
Speaker 1: it makes it hard to UM for for investors to

190
00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:03,960
Speaker 1: see a long term future. UH. There has Pakistan suffered

191
00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:10,280
Speaker 1: and is its current predicament in part explained by its

192
00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:15,080
Speaker 1: long land border with Afghanistan. Now, you mentioned post nine eleven,

193
00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:18,720
Speaker 1: but Afghanistan has been going through periods of tumult long

194
00:12:18,800 --> 00:12:21,000
Speaker 1: before that. Does that have anything to do with what's

195
00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:25,079
Speaker 1: going on here? It's certainly it's certainly adds to the

196
00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:29,400
Speaker 1: challenge of Pakistan. I mean having a border that was

197
00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,720
Speaker 1: always contested by Avuhanistan because if you remember, the border

198
00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:35,960
Speaker 1: that defines the boundaries of Indian Pakistan was first of

199
00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:42,360
Speaker 1: all created under the Raj and the Aflan government then

200
00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:46,040
Speaker 1: and subsequent Aguan governments have always questioned the legitimacy of

201
00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:50,240
Speaker 1: the border. So that has added to this constant paranoia

202
00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:53,719
Speaker 1: and in Pakistan that we are surrounded by people who

203
00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:57,400
Speaker 1: don't really recognize our right to exist. If you have

204
00:12:57,480 --> 00:13:00,720
Speaker 1: India on one side that perhaps wants to re absorb

205
00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:04,800
Speaker 1: us and correct the tragedy of partition, and then we

206
00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:08,640
Speaker 1: have Afghanistan on the other side, which questions the legitimacy

207
00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:13,120
Speaker 1: of the border, and uh therefore has has strong interest

208
00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:16,480
Speaker 1: on the borderland straddling the border between the two countries.

209
00:13:16,880 --> 00:13:20,240
Speaker 1: So it does add to the instability. What at its

210
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:24,360
Speaker 1: worst has done has it has constantly fueled the paranoia

211
00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:27,960
Speaker 1: that has strengthened the Hannah the military in terms of

212
00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:30,800
Speaker 1: positioning itself that we are the only ones who can

213
00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:34,480
Speaker 1: defend you as we are sounded by people who don't

214
00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:39,080
Speaker 1: want us to exist. Let's talk about India's economy for

215
00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:43,960
Speaker 1: a moment here. That country is reporting numbers that would

216
00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:48,199
Speaker 1: would make it the fastest growing major economy in the world,

217
00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:51,400
Speaker 1: even faster than China. And yet at the same time

218
00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:57,400
Speaker 1: it has legendary bureaucratic issues. Uh. They just had a

219
00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:01,480
Speaker 1: major issue this past year where they scrapped a huge

220
00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:04,800
Speaker 1: amount of currency. We did a whole separate podcast on that.

221
00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:09,800
Speaker 1: You have a Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is uh,

222
00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,960
Speaker 1: you know, taking the country in new direction and even

223
00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:17,520
Speaker 1: fanning sectarian flames in a way. How does this altbode

224
00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:21,320
Speaker 1: for the future of India's economy. Can it really keep

225
00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:28,080
Speaker 1: up the growth that's made it so special? It really depends.

226
00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:29,920
Speaker 1: I mean, I think some of the growth numbers are

227
00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:34,480
Speaker 1: a little suspect because if you look deeper down at

228
00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:38,080
Speaker 1: other numbers like private investment for instance, Um, they are

229
00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,840
Speaker 1: they're extremely worrying. Uh. And as I mentioned later, in

230
00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:45,520
Speaker 1: jobs in particular, you've got, you know, a need to

231
00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:48,920
Speaker 1: create something like a million jobs a month just to

232
00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:53,640
Speaker 1: absorb the people entering the workforce. And you don't have

233
00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:58,040
Speaker 1: an established and major manufacturing sector, which is really the

234
00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:00,840
Speaker 1: only way to absorb that number of people. Uh. That

235
00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:05,080
Speaker 1: the Modi government has tried to establish this Make an

236
00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,920
Speaker 1: India program, but it hasn't really amounted to much. They

237
00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:11,800
Speaker 1: haven't been able to change, in particular the laws that

238
00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:14,680
Speaker 1: make it harder for companies to hire and fire, which

239
00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,600
Speaker 1: is why so many of them remain so small UH.

240
00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:22,120
Speaker 1: And that's that's preventing growth in the manufacturing sector. And

241
00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:24,560
Speaker 1: then you've got UM. You know, part of the problem

242
00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:27,160
Speaker 1: with the stall and investment is that you have a

243
00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:30,320
Speaker 1: major overhang of bad loans uh in in the state

244
00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:34,040
Speaker 1: bank sector that still hasn't been dealt with UM and

245
00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,160
Speaker 1: that is preventing banks from lending, is preventing borrowers from

246
00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:40,160
Speaker 1: from wanting to take on more debt uh. And unless

247
00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:42,320
Speaker 1: you solve all these problems, I don't think it'll be

248
00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:45,840
Speaker 1: you'll be able to sustain the kind of gaudy top

249
00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:49,520
Speaker 1: line GDP numbers that the government likes to boast about Cyrus.

250
00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:55,400
Speaker 1: Does Pakistan have an economic future or even a futures? Yes,

251
00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:58,800
Speaker 1: and yes, I absolutely do think that Pakistan both than

252
00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:03,040
Speaker 1: economic future and a future UM. But it's not going

253
00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:06,280
Speaker 1: to be an easy struggle for those who want to

254
00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:09,520
Speaker 1: write Pakistan's coores. But I certainly have a lot of

255
00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:12,560
Speaker 1: faith in many people in Pakistan who do see the

256
00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:16,240
Speaker 1: struggles for what they are. But it's it's going to

257
00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:18,640
Speaker 1: be a long slog, and I think it's going to

258
00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:23,520
Speaker 1: test the patients of both Pakistani's and Pakistan's neighbors and

259
00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:26,720
Speaker 1: Pakistan's friends and attractor of the world. I mean, this

260
00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:31,040
Speaker 1: is the country that's close to populations already well over

261
00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:34,400
Speaker 1: two hundred million, it may almost double in three decades,

262
00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:39,720
Speaker 1: the country that is a major, significant military power with

263
00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,480
Speaker 1: nuclear weapon. This is a country that's really not going

264
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:47,080
Speaker 1: away anywhere. This is a country that can both offer

265
00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:51,080
Speaker 1: a lot of opportunities and offer tremendous challenges to its neighbors.

266
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:54,080
Speaker 1: This is a country that India, for instance, rather would

267
00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:59,120
Speaker 1: have succeed on its own rather than splinter into more

268
00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:01,360
Speaker 1: and more chaos. But God, that is going to really

269
00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:04,359
Speaker 1: also affect in their daground to the detriment of India.

270
00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:07,120
Speaker 1: So so it's it's going to be long slog. It's

271
00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:10,320
Speaker 1: going to require a lot of reform in the country

272
00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:12,320
Speaker 1: is going to reform. It's going to require a lot

273
00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:19,080
Speaker 1: of patients from Pakistan's neighbors. Failed Pakistan is unacceptable. Gentlemen,

274
00:17:19,320 --> 00:17:26,240
Speaker 1: Thank you both, and again happy seventieth Benchmark will be

275
00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:28,919
Speaker 1: back next week and until then you can find us

276
00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:32,639
Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg dot com or Bloomberg app,

277
00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:37,120
Speaker 1: as well as Apple Podcasts, pocket Casts, and Stitcher. While

278
00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:39,760
Speaker 1: you're there, take a minute rate and review the show

279
00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,960
Speaker 1: so more listeners can find us and do let us

280
00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:45,359
Speaker 1: know what you thought of the show. You can follow

281
00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:51,000
Speaker 1: me on Twitter at Moss Underscore, Eco Scott at Scott's

282
00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:54,440
Speaker 1: Landman Faris how do they find you? They can find

283
00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:57,760
Speaker 1: me at f Khan thirty three at Bloomberg dot There

284
00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:02,480
Speaker 1: and listen and on it are at out Nettajari. Benchmark

285
00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:05,919
Speaker 1: is produced by Sarah Patterson. The head of Bloomberg Podcast

286
00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:08,360
Speaker 1: is Alec McCabe. See you next time,