1 00:00:01,800 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carole Masser and I'm 2 00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanabek. We're here every day bringing 3 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:09,799 Speaker 1: you the latest news from the world of business and finance, 4 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 1: plus technology, politics, economics, all furnishing the power of Business 5 00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 6 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 1: analysts in more than one twenty countries. You can download 7 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:23,439 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Weekend iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You 8 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: can also listen to our radio show at two pm 9 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 1: Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube 10 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 1: search Bloomberg Global News. We talked about You've been hearing 11 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:35,960 Speaker 1: from Nancy Lions and our team about US health officials 12 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 1: expected to talk about tighter guidelines for the use of masks, 13 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:42,879 Speaker 1: especially in indoor settings and places where that delta variant 14 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 1: is spreading rapidly and increasing cases of COVID. There's a 15 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 1: lot going on, Maderna saying it's COVID nineteen. Vaccine manufacturing 16 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 1: partners outside the US TIM are facing delays due to 17 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 1: lab testing issues that occurred in recent days, and in 18 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:57,520 Speaker 1: some places we see cases come down, other places we 19 00:00:57,560 --> 00:00:58,840 Speaker 1: see them go out. Yeah, we do like to do 20 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 1: a periodic check of the numbers cases globally topping a 21 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 1: hundred and ninety four point eight million deaths, surpassing four 22 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 1: point one seven million vaccine tracker from Bloomberg News, more 23 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 1: than three point eight nine billion doses have been administered. 24 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 1: Keep in mind that many of these doses require two 25 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:15,760 Speaker 1: shots in order for someone to be fully vaccinated, and 26 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:17,959 Speaker 1: the UK reported the highest number of Kevin nineteen death 27 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 1: since March, prompting a top government official to warn the 28 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 1: pandemic is not over yet. That is the subject of 29 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg story will dig into later. Let's get to 30 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 1: our guest, Dr David Levy, the CEO of the healthcare 31 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 1: provider e h E Health. He's an epidemiologist. He's based 32 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 1: in New York City. That's exactly where we find him 33 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:35,840 Speaker 1: on the phone on this Tuesday. Dr Levy, So nice 34 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: to have you here with Tim and myself. How are 35 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:40,039 Speaker 1: you doing? What are you seeing when it comes to 36 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 1: COVID and particularly the delta variant, well obviously around the well. 37 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 1: First of all, thanks for tasking, nice to speak with you. Uh, look, 38 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 1: I'm seeing what we're all saying, which is we're basically 39 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 1: living in a tale of two cities. You have a 40 00:01:56,760 --> 00:02:01,200 Speaker 1: cities and communities where there's high immunization rates and relatively 41 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 1: low impact, and you have cities and communities with low 42 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 1: immunization rates and relatively high impact. And that's the world 43 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 1: we're living in today. And I'm very happy to say 44 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:13,079 Speaker 1: that New York is one of those cities where we're 45 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:16,240 Speaker 1: having relatively low impact because we're in a high immunization 46 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 1: city right now. That said, we are expecting to hear 47 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 1: from the CDC just in about forty minutes. We do 48 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:24,959 Speaker 1: expect health officials in the US to return to tighter 49 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 1: guidelines for the use of masks. How are you reading 50 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 1: into this given that we were told weeks ago that 51 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:36,119 Speaker 1: fully vaccinated individuals don't have to be wearing masks indoors. Well, 52 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 1: I think I said a few months ago on this 53 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 1: program that epidemiology is the exact science of probabilities. And 54 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: as the environment changes and we're dealing with, you know, 55 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 1: a contagious and mutating virus, that the facts on the 56 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:54,959 Speaker 1: ground and the recommendations will have to change. I mean 57 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:57,840 Speaker 1: that that's absolutely normal. I will tell you when the 58 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:01,280 Speaker 1: first recommendations came out, I didn't interpret them that said 59 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 1: that I should never have to wear a mask again. 60 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:06,080 Speaker 1: I mean even in New York City when I go 61 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:08,080 Speaker 1: if I went into a venuehere there are five or 62 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:11,040 Speaker 1: ten thousand people and fully vaccinated, I would still wear 63 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:13,919 Speaker 1: a mask. And I am going to suggest, I don't 64 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 1: know exactly what they'll say, that they will make recommendations 65 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:20,960 Speaker 1: based on the level of community spread in whatever community 66 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 1: you happen to be living in, and certainly not going 67 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 1: to be the same in a highly immunized community versus 68 00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:28,360 Speaker 1: a lowly a low immunized community. So I think you 69 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:32,080 Speaker 1: have to uh, you know, like everything else, there's recommendations 70 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 1: and you have to use your own personal judgment and 71 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 1: with respect to local circumstances. Yeah, and when in doubt, 72 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: maybe just throwing a mask. The headline just crossing the 73 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:43,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal. This is coming from the ft the Financial 74 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:47,119 Speaker 1: Times England set to allow double vaccinated US and EU tourists. 75 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 1: What do you believe is the right thing when it 76 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 1: comes to cross border travel? Dr Levy Um, Well, I 77 00:03:57,520 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 1: think in general, I don't think there's a big risk 78 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 1: with respect to people who are fully immunized. I think 79 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 1: the issues and in fact I gave a talk about 80 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: this a couple of weeks ago. I don't think the 81 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: issues are as much science based as they are politically based. 82 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 1: I mean, fully immunized people ought not be precluded in 83 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 1: my view, from international travel, the risk is more um uh, 84 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 1: you know, when they go from place to place, they 85 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:27,359 Speaker 1: ought to be cognizant of the community spread and choose 86 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 1: when and where to uh to wear masks. So I 87 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 1: I don't think that fully immunized people are are at 88 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 1: particular risk moving across the boarders. Personally, I'm now involved 89 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 1: in situations with both the UK and Canada being fully immunized. 90 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 1: I really don't have concerns from my own personal travel. 91 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:48,839 Speaker 1: What about people who are fully immunized getting a breakthrough 92 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 1: infection and then perhaps even unwillingly or unknowingly passing that 93 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 1: to somebody who hasn't been vaccinated. What do we know 94 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 1: about the ability of somebody who has been fully vaccinated 95 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:04,359 Speaker 1: to spread COVID. Well, we don't know a lot about 96 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 1: that in fact, and this is one of the issues 97 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 1: people always want an answer to an evolving scientific situation. 98 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 1: We don't clearly know the answer to that. There's some 99 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:15,960 Speaker 1: early studies that should suggest that in fact, there may 100 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:18,279 Speaker 1: be as high a viral load and people who have 101 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 1: been immunized and who have gotten COVID as those who 102 00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 1: have in fact not been immunized. But we don't know 103 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:28,920 Speaker 1: the extent to which that will spread. And men, as 104 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 1: you well know, many of these cases are asymptomatic. But 105 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:35,479 Speaker 1: the best defense against any kind of spread is getting 106 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 1: as many people immunized as possible. That creates the greatest wall. 107 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:43,240 Speaker 1: And I think people have to be reminded that nobody 108 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:46,920 Speaker 1: ever said these vaccines were a hundred percent effective, thecent effective. 109 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:49,279 Speaker 1: We live in a city of eight million people. If 110 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:52,920 Speaker 1: everybody was exposed to this new DEBTA variant, you would 111 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:55,680 Speaker 1: as you'd expect five percent of the people to to 112 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 1: to become infected, which is three fifty people. And we're 113 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:01,320 Speaker 1: nowhere near any kind those kind of numbers. So the 114 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:05,440 Speaker 1: vaccines continue to be very, very effective. And you know, 115 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 1: rather than picking out, you know, one or two given 116 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 1: situations in a given person in a given venue, the 117 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:15,600 Speaker 1: idea here is to look at the overall macro public 118 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 1: health you and get people immunize. It's the most effective 119 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 1: way to lower the lease value. The lethality. This this 120 00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:26,400 Speaker 1: pandemic and the more, the faster, the better. It's as 121 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:28,719 Speaker 1: simple as that. Dr Leaving one thing Tim and I 122 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 1: wanted to ask you, is are we in a better 123 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 1: place than we were a year ago, six months ago, 124 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: a month ago. We are absolutely in a better place 125 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:44,599 Speaker 1: and from any point in the past with respect to 126 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 1: our immunization status. And even though it's slowed down, it 127 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 1: gets better and better and better. I think that you 128 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:54,360 Speaker 1: could say that we're in a difficult spot in the 129 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:58,279 Speaker 1: past month because of the rise of this current variant. 130 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:01,719 Speaker 1: But that being said, it's giving pointing us to a 131 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 1: really strong lesson which is the best that we can 132 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 1: deal The best weapon to deal with these variants, not 133 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 1: just today with this variant, but variants in the future, 134 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 1: providing the variants don't circumvent the vaccine is to keep 135 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:20,520 Speaker 1: getting vaccinated. You know, for people like myself who look 136 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 1: every day at the statistics in New York City, uh, 137 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 1: you know, we have about a thousand cases now versus 138 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 1: the bottom of a trough of about a hundred hundred 139 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: and fifty a few weeks ago. The hospitalization rate has 140 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: stayed pretty much the same, hasn't ticked up yet, and 141 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 1: the death rate is still at record low. So the 142 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 1: lethality this epidemic in New York City is very very 143 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 1: low compared to where we have been in the past, 144 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 1: and people should keep their eyes out on what the 145 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: total lethality of this epidemic is and how immunization can 146 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 1: improve that, you know, month day, day by day, week 147 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 1: by week, and month by one, month by one. And 148 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 1: the single best weapon I can't stress this enough is 149 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 1: getting immunized. Yeah, the numbers are there. I mean CDC 150 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 1: has said that of people who are hospitalized with this 151 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:07,880 Speaker 1: are people who have not been vaccinated. Um. Dr Levy, 152 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 1: I'm wondering about getting the next portion of Americans vaccinated. 153 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 1: You have New York City in California talking about and indeed, 154 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:21,560 Speaker 1: UH implementing vaccine mandates are starting at different times for 155 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 1: people who work in respective areas. Are vaccine mandates a 156 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 1: good thing? Well, I personally believe in vaccine mandates. Uh. 157 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 1: All of us went to school with vaccines, otherwise we 158 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:38,880 Speaker 1: couldn't go to school. Nobody told me, or nobody told 159 00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:41,319 Speaker 1: me to with respect to my kids, that you had 160 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 1: a choice to wear a mask or to get a 161 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 1: measles vaccine. You had to get a Measles vaccine um. 162 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 1: Obviously today is a much more complicated social environment around 163 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:54,520 Speaker 1: the issue. But I think there's a point, and we've 164 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 1: could to jold our own employees, and we've gotten to 165 00:08:56,920 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: very high vaccination rates on a voluntary base. Is but 166 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 1: I think that for many people, this idea of vaccine, 167 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 1: it's and it's impact with respect to the disease, is 168 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 1: still an intellectual construct. And somebody we were talking this 169 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 1: morning amongst a few of us about this idea about 170 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 1: a mandate. Uh. Thereby making people give something up if 171 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 1: they in fact don't get the vaccine is powerful. Not 172 00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:26,560 Speaker 1: necessarily your job, but the ability to go to a 173 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:29,319 Speaker 1: show or the ability to go to a restaurant. This 174 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:33,359 Speaker 1: idea of finally having to confront that if you're not vaccinated, 175 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 1: your life will meaningfully change. By having some sort of 176 00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 1: a restriction, I think can be a positive effect to 177 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 1: getting more and more people. Uh. Somebody said this morning, 178 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 1: you know, there's nobody writing emails that they're withdrawing from 179 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:51,199 Speaker 1: college because their college happened to mandate vaccines. Nobody's pulling 180 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 1: out of college because of that. And I think that 181 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: the same thing is going to be seen as a 182 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 1: private institutions mandate vaccines. I think, you know, there's a 183 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 1: lot of a threat about it, but I don't think 184 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 1: that there's going to be a real withdrawal from from 185 00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 1: those institutions. I really don't. It's funny that you said 186 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 1: that my daughter starts college in the fall and her 187 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:12,319 Speaker 1: school just sent out a note saying that the vaccination 188 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:14,439 Speaker 1: rates aren't high enough. I guess they're asking for evidence, 189 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 1: and they're basically, I think, kind of pushing people saying, 190 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 1: you know, please get it. We're not making it mandatory, 191 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 1: at least not yet um, but we'll see what happens. 192 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:24,440 Speaker 1: Dr David Levy, CEO of E H E Health, thank 193 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:26,720 Speaker 1: you so much. It's so interesting, Dr David Levy, just 194 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 1: now talking about the idea of taking something away or 195 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:31,079 Speaker 1: you're not getting access to something because you're not vaccinated. 196 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 1: For for me and for so many people, I know, 197 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:35,760 Speaker 1: the idea of just being safer and being able to 198 00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:37,959 Speaker 1: kind of face the world, getting rid of the stress 199 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:41,320 Speaker 1: of being concerned that you can't get the virus. That 200 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:45,040 Speaker 1: was enough for me. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week 201 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:49,200 Speaker 1: with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes, Tim Stinovic on 202 00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,319 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. All Right, well, this week's cover story Bloomberg 203 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 1: Business Week magazine happens to be among our most read 204 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 1: stories today on the Bloomberg You'll understand why in just 205 00:10:57,080 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 1: a moment. It's about Beijing's crackdown on its big tech companies, 206 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 1: how it is ushering a new era. So let's get 207 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 1: to it. It's something we've talked about already a lot. 208 00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 1: Joel Lebbers, editor at Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us 209 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 1: in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Also, Austin Carr, technology 210 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:13,160 Speaker 1: reporter for Bloomberg News, joins us on the phone from 211 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:16,600 Speaker 1: l A. My biggest question, Joel, with this story is 212 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:20,080 Speaker 1: did Austin get to go to Grand Cayman to actually 213 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 1: report it, because that's how the story opens. Yeah, not 214 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 1: not to my knowledge, But you haven't got any expenses 215 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:29,200 Speaker 1: for July. I haven't got those expenses. And I was 216 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 1: thinking as you said that that, you know, he just 217 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,959 Speaker 1: did that cover story not that long ago about Margaritaville, 218 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 1: which maybe maybe that did take him to the islands, 219 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:41,440 Speaker 1: and I just didn't put two and you together. But uh, 220 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:43,679 Speaker 1: you know, I think this story is super significant. When 221 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:48,079 Speaker 1: I think about the storyline through the year, this one 222 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:50,840 Speaker 1: is increasingly feeling like the story of the year, which 223 00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 1: is China crackdown and and and what it really means 224 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:58,240 Speaker 1: because I think forever investors especially, I've always felt like, 225 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:01,079 Speaker 1: oh wow, this is trying, this is a growth story, 226 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:04,920 Speaker 1: and like the tech versions of companies coming from China 227 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: can be very different than American versions. And you know, 228 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 1: just seemed like that the guy was the limit. And 229 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 1: then this guy has basically been brought down, um and 230 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 1: especially just then of the last week, so we felt 231 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 1: like that was uh, you know, especially irrelevant for the 232 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 1: cover this week. So so Austin, can you can you 233 00:12:22,920 --> 00:12:24,800 Speaker 1: tell me, like, you know, we we set you loose 234 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:26,840 Speaker 1: on this story and what really stands out to you 235 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 1: about what China is doing right now, because there's a 236 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 1: term that you dropping the story, that China model that 237 00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 1: I'd like you to explain to Sure. Yeah, And and 238 00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 1: just up top, I I should note that I am 239 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:39,959 Speaker 1: in Los Angeles reporting, not in the Cayman Islands on 240 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,360 Speaker 1: the beach anymore. How don't we know that? Sounds like 241 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,959 Speaker 1: can either confirm nor no that, But I do agree 242 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,600 Speaker 1: this is one of the big stories of the year 243 00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 1: that we're really eager to focus on when it comes 244 00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 1: to Silicon Valley versus China, because for so long they 245 00:12:56,320 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 1: were sort of emulating the model that the US had 246 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 1: done with their industry. For every you know version of Facebook, 247 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 1: there was a version of that in China, or there 248 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:08,959 Speaker 1: was buy You the Google of China, or d D 249 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:12,960 Speaker 1: the Uber of China, And until just you know, about 250 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:16,280 Speaker 1: October or so, that model had just continued growing and 251 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 1: growing and they were becoming more global competitors. But what 252 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:23,440 Speaker 1: with these recent crackdowns on d D, on Ali Baba, 253 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 1: on the education industry, on Matuan, we're seeing a very 254 00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:30,079 Speaker 1: a lot of up people in that model where China 255 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:33,440 Speaker 1: is basically saying to its entrepreneurs, no, this has got 256 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 1: to stop no more, you know, freewheeling capitalism. We're going 257 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:39,240 Speaker 1: to rein you in a bit, and we're going to 258 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 1: do a lot faster than the U S regulators can 259 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:43,880 Speaker 1: do it in the US. And I think the big 260 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:45,959 Speaker 1: standout thing for me, and we can talk more about 261 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 1: the new model for China, but the big standout thing 262 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:51,559 Speaker 1: is that going into this, I assumed we'd feel here 263 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:54,800 Speaker 1: a lot of negative reactions of the government intervention in China, 264 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 1: and it was actually quite the opposite. We actually heard 265 00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:59,559 Speaker 1: a lot of positive reactions, especially from the startup in 266 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:02,200 Speaker 1: VC community, that felt like this was going to level 267 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 1: the playing field in the China texting in a way 268 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,600 Speaker 1: that won't happen in the the U s texting for 269 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 1: many years. So why is the Chinese government no longer 270 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:15,839 Speaker 1: taking a permissive approach Austin When it comes to big 271 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 1: Chinese tech companies, You know, there's definitely a sense that 272 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 1: these companies were getting too powerful, um Ali Babba being 273 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:27,680 Speaker 1: a prime example, where it was acting with a lot 274 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 1: of monopolistic behavior, alleged monopolistic behavior towards some of the startups, 275 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:35,080 Speaker 1: forcing them on their platform, forcing smaller players to sell out, 276 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 1: taking advantage of their data, and really behaving in a 277 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 1: way that was in the corporate interests but not necessarily 278 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 1: in China's national interests. And I think that's really where 279 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:47,840 Speaker 1: the big pivot is happening in China right now. When 280 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 1: we think about anti trust cases in the US, that's 281 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:53,720 Speaker 1: often to protect the consumer, but in China it's increasingly 282 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:56,880 Speaker 1: to protect national policy. And so when these companies were 283 00:14:57,040 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 1: vieering off track, not behaving in a way that was 284 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 1: in the in China's national interest. That's when the government 285 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 1: has stepped in and say Ali Baba or two d 286 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:06,960 Speaker 1: D or may twin that they have to behave differently, 287 00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:09,560 Speaker 1: you know. Reading the story Austin and in just hearing 288 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 1: you describe it like that, I think some some critics 289 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 1: of US tech companies could say, hey, wait a second, 290 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 1: this is what we see US tech companies doing to 291 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 1: to their smaller competition, correct, I mean we we did 292 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 1: hear that. I mean one person had told me that, uh, 293 00:15:23,880 --> 00:15:26,520 Speaker 1: you know, China was able to reign in Ali Baba 294 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 1: within four months, whereas it's going to take US regulators, 295 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 1: you know, years and years, if not longer, to rain 296 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 1: in a company like Facebook or Google about their alleged 297 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 1: you know, privacy issues. Um. And So basically what we 298 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 1: have to look at is what is the outcome of 299 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 1: these two different approaches to regulation. On the one hand, 300 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: critics and observers believe that US tech companies might have 301 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: a bit more of an edge in the global theme. 302 00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 1: They will Facebook the same companies will continue to grow 303 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 1: at a more global scale, where China's model is now 304 00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: becoming increasingly China centric. And also less founder centric. In 305 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:03,680 Speaker 1: other words, sort of the sort of heroes of the 306 00:16:03,920 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 1: tech industry and Silicon Valley like Ali Baba co founder 307 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 1: Jack Ma might not be as vocal or as present 308 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 1: as sort of their counterparts in the US, like Elon 309 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 1: Musk will continue to be um and so there's just 310 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 1: a give and take there. On the one hand, China 311 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:21,280 Speaker 1: might have less global champions, but perhaps they they that 312 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 1: sort of braining in the top players allows a new 313 00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 1: generation of startups to grow, whereas in the US startups 314 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 1: are finding it difficult to grow without being swallowed up 315 00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:33,200 Speaker 1: by the bigger players. Austin, what have you not said 316 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 1: that you needed to say? I have not. I have 317 00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:38,960 Speaker 1: not said that I will be filing an expense report. 318 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:42,440 Speaker 1: You like, I better get to the grand game? Is 319 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:46,240 Speaker 1: just to do some last minute fact checking? Okay, Well, 320 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 1: you know it's interesting. I read your story and I 321 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,480 Speaker 1: was thinking, Okay, the EU is leading when it comes 322 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 1: to climate change regulatory moves. I feel like China is 323 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 1: now leading the way when it comes to big tech oversight. 324 00:16:57,480 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: You know, what's the US role in all of this 325 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 1: and what it mean for US big tech companies. I 326 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 1: think the US is still figuring that out. I mean, 327 00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,920 Speaker 1: we we we've seen so many hearings. We've seen sort 328 00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 1: of fines levied in the EU and the US towards 329 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:14,280 Speaker 1: certain companies, but it has not played out as aggressively 330 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:17,439 Speaker 1: UH in the U S as it has in UM 331 00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 1: the in in China markets. UH, we are seeing sort 332 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:25,640 Speaker 1: of U S companies having to you know, one sort 333 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:30,200 Speaker 1: of interesting juxtaposition was on July four, This is days 334 00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:33,360 Speaker 1: after Facebook has been dealing with UH, you know, issues 335 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:35,639 Speaker 1: around government intervention, what's going to happen with some of 336 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 1: the antitrust suits against them? And you have Mark Zuckerberg 337 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 1: gliding on that that hydro surfboard on July fourth, an 338 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:44,800 Speaker 1: Independence Day, carrying the American flag. Compare that to someone 339 00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:47,880 Speaker 1: like Jack Ma who has basically disappeared in recent months. 340 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:49,879 Speaker 1: We haven't seen them, and you can really see the 341 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 1: stark difference between how much pressure of the U S 342 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 1: tech companies, the largest giants are facing verse is UH 343 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 1: for versus the Chinese tech companies. But I would really 344 00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:02,159 Speaker 1: stress at this is a nuance complicated issue, and the 345 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 1: idea from a Western perspective that the China is just 346 00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 1: breaking down their big text team not correct. They're just 347 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 1: trying to tell them what they can know no longer do. 348 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 1: It's the perfect read right now, investors, US investors are 349 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:17,840 Speaker 1: gonna love the American tech companies even more though as 350 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,479 Speaker 1: a result. The big one, big take away, Well, it's 351 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 1: a must read and check it out. It's the cover. 352 00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:26,160 Speaker 1: Joe Weber, Editor Bloomberg Business Week, Austin car Uh, technology 353 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 1: reporter Here at Bloomberg News. You're listening to Bloomberg Business 354 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:38,119 Speaker 1: Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic 355 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:43,359 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. TikTok, everybody. We are waiting from the 356 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:45,399 Speaker 1: CDC a bit of an update when it comes to 357 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:47,879 Speaker 1: COVID and mask wearing. So as soon as that begins, 358 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:49,960 Speaker 1: we will take you there live. In the meantime, you know, 359 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:54,400 Speaker 1: it also got underway today the Federal Reserve today meeting busy. Yeah, 360 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,240 Speaker 1: and we're gonna get that decision tomorrow. Let's find out 361 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 1: what we should be watching out for. We've got dynamic 362 00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:03,439 Speaker 1: duo Steve Skanky back with US Chief Economic Advisor at 363 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:05,920 Speaker 1: Kiel Point, former U S Treasury and White House National 364 00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:08,879 Speaker 1: Security Council staff member based in Washington, d C. That's 365 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:12,159 Speaker 1: where we find him on the phone and also with 366 00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 1: us Francis Donald. She is global chief economist and head 367 00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 1: of macro strategy at Manual Life Investment Management. She too 368 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 1: back with us on the phone from Montreal. Francis, Uh, Steve, 369 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,080 Speaker 1: so nice to have you here with us. Francis, let 370 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 1: me kick it off with you. What is it? I mean? 371 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:29,679 Speaker 1: Is it gonna be a boring meeting? Can I just 372 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 1: go out for a like a three martini lunch and 373 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 1: then come back when it's all over? Or do what 374 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 1: do I? Or should I be closely listening and watching? 375 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:41,120 Speaker 1: Sometimes it's better. I'm not a Martini kind of gal either, 376 00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:43,840 Speaker 1: so I don't even know why I said, Martiniz, go ahead. Well, 377 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: you may have the right strategy, because there's always an 378 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 1: emphasis on trying to parcel out word by word. I 379 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 1: think they can probably get away with not doing much tomorrow. 380 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 1: But the question, of course, when is this paper coming? 381 00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,480 Speaker 1: Is it going to be MBS the US focused? How 382 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 1: much warning are we gonna get? But mon view is 383 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:03,680 Speaker 1: it actually doesn't really matter whether we get a September 384 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:07,320 Speaker 1: taper or December taper. That's not the underlying question that 385 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 1: has spooked markets here. The question is did the set 386 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 1: really have a change in their policy making reaction function 387 00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:17,760 Speaker 1: with average in flintship targeting. They're focused on broadways and 388 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 1: inclusive employment. Do those two rate hype dots really matter? 389 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,439 Speaker 1: Are we just going back to pre COVID style monetary policy? 390 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 1: So the most important question I'm looking for is does 391 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 1: Powell in some way push back against those dots, push 392 00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:35,119 Speaker 1: back on the idea that a I T was just 393 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 1: with service and give us some indication that yes, people 394 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,400 Speaker 1: on notepaper, they will be very patient on rate hikes. 395 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:43,920 Speaker 1: Two has to get priced out a little bit more. 396 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 1: I think for this curve to start re speepening. Steve 397 00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 1: Skankey come on in here and weigh in on this. 398 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:50,920 Speaker 1: Do you agree with Francis that that is the most 399 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:52,639 Speaker 1: important thing we should be keeping an eye on when 400 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:54,080 Speaker 1: it comes to what we hear from J. Powell and 401 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:58,120 Speaker 1: the Fed tomorrow, Well, it certainly is something that we well, 402 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,120 Speaker 1: thanks for inviting me. Certainly is something that we want 403 00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:03,880 Speaker 1: to be paying attention to. I think the big challenge 404 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:08,399 Speaker 1: for tomorrow is is for the Fed to uh uh 405 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:13,639 Speaker 1: not walk back from it's it's somewhat hot um uh 406 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:16,960 Speaker 1: outcome with the change in the dot plot from its 407 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 1: meeting a month ago, and at the same time to 408 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: acknowledge that the COVID nineteen delta variant UH could become 409 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:32,000 Speaker 1: an issue. We see some of the indicators of of 410 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:36,719 Speaker 1: economic growth slacking a little bit. UH. The FED hasn't 411 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:42,040 Speaker 1: seen its employment growth numbers achieved yet, and so it 412 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,080 Speaker 1: it wants to keep the stimulus on, but at the 413 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,800 Speaker 1: same time doesn't want to disappoint the market that it 414 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 1: is giving up its vigilance on inflation. You know, the 415 00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:56,119 Speaker 1: inflation is the numbers are really a conundrum for the 416 00:21:56,160 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: FED because when you drill down into it, UH, you know, 417 00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 1: numbers like like housing or um shelter, which is thirty 418 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 1: three percent of the CPI basket, only a two and 419 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:13,640 Speaker 1: a half percent um over the last twelve months through 420 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 1: the end of June. And for for anything really to 421 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:20,720 Speaker 1: happen that's not transitory and inflation, you have to see 422 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 1: some basic shift in something you know, in shelter, medical services, 423 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 1: food at home, and they're just haven't been that there yet, 424 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:34,880 Speaker 1: so that the FED needs to assure markets, but yet 425 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:39,399 Speaker 1: at the same time acknowledge what it always acknowledges about. 426 00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:42,359 Speaker 1: We haven't seen substantial progress yet toward our goals. Right 427 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 1: the bondom market, we tell you that, Yeah, we're in 428 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:47,679 Speaker 1: on that narrative. We've got the tenure note all right 429 00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:51,960 Speaker 1: now at one three Frances, What about the financial markets? 430 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 1: We are seeing some pressure today because of the big 431 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:58,080 Speaker 1: tech names, although we're coming off our lows, concerns about earnings, 432 00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 1: concerns about outlook. It be interesting to see what these 433 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:03,280 Speaker 1: big companies what do we have to We have Apple, 434 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 1: we have Google, Microsoft, Right what they say about you 435 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,600 Speaker 1: know the variant that you know Delta and COVID. How 436 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,880 Speaker 1: much do you think we know? The FED watches financial markets? 437 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:17,520 Speaker 1: How much do they watch earnings as well in terms 438 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:22,880 Speaker 1: of figuring out what the growth and inflationary trajectory might be. Well, 439 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,760 Speaker 1: I always think of the said like macro strategists. Maybe 440 00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,320 Speaker 1: that's my own bias. But if they're like me, and 441 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,800 Speaker 1: I think sometimes they are, maybe I'm like them. What 442 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 1: they're probably looking for clues within those statements regarding a 443 00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 1: few key issues that are really a creating massive uncertainty 444 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:40,560 Speaker 1: for the outlook want to supply change disruption. We think 445 00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 1: that that shows up and maybe tech earnings to the 446 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:46,200 Speaker 1: same extent. But any invocation that those are either falling 447 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:49,639 Speaker 1: back the baiting or persistent problem does change not just 448 00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,359 Speaker 1: the inflation outlook, but the growth outlook, and likely going 449 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 1: to be listening for for comments about labor shortages and 450 00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,679 Speaker 1: any indication that maybe some of that labor force participation 451 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:03,040 Speaker 1: rates coming back and how that's going to be impacting wages. 452 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:05,920 Speaker 1: And then if they're like, we're also looking in earnings 453 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 1: for any indication about how government spending ahead might change 454 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:12,439 Speaker 1: the outlook. These are three huge uncertainties that aren't just 455 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,480 Speaker 1: weighing on central bank reaction function or the way we 456 00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:19,600 Speaker 1: can construct asked allocation portfolios, but individual companies in America 457 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,720 Speaker 1: as well. They're creating this breadth of uncertainty that means 458 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 1: we don't have career vision on what growth, inflation, or 459 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 1: policymakers are going to be doing ahead. And that's the 460 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 1: underlying problem. That's the nerves you're seeing in this market, 461 00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:36,600 Speaker 1: is this complete lack of visibility. Uh, Stephen, we only 462 00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,119 Speaker 1: have about a minute left, But I'm gonna ask you 463 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,200 Speaker 1: the question we ask each and every time there is 464 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 1: a FED meeting. What's what's the question that you ask 465 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,680 Speaker 1: FED share Powell tomorrow? If you were given the chance 466 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:52,560 Speaker 1: and just got about forty twonds. Sure. Well, at cal point, 467 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:56,080 Speaker 1: we're watching for any indication that's going to drive markets 468 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 1: one way or the other. So I guess my my 469 00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 1: main question for him to be would be, Okay, so 470 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:06,480 Speaker 1: you you talked about talking about papering, so this time 471 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 1: did you actually talk about it? And do you have 472 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:13,440 Speaker 1: a plan and when will we expect to see that plan? 473 00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:15,320 Speaker 1: We have to wait till after August. We have to 474 00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 1: wait till September. And while I agree that it doesn't 475 00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:24,040 Speaker 1: matter so much as to when it starts, markets would 476 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 1: like to know, uh, when they're going to get on 477 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,520 Speaker 1: with it, Steve really quickly. Do we hear more about 478 00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:32,000 Speaker 1: Do we hear Delta being said more tomorrow or Transitory? 479 00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:37,200 Speaker 1: I think probably Delta Moore tomorrow, although this is their 480 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,639 Speaker 1: first meeting since the June and Place and cp I, 481 00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,400 Speaker 1: so probably Transitory is going to be at two francs 482 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:47,240 Speaker 1: five seconds, Delta Transcharactor. What is going on in the 483 00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:50,399 Speaker 1: housing market? Are they afraid that it has bubble components? 484 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,119 Speaker 1: That's my question. Francis Donald evert Man, you life and 485 00:25:53,119 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 1: Steve Skanky over kill point the journal. Yeah, but you 486 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,520 Speaker 1: let me drive oh no, no, no no, no, drive home 487 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:09,000 Speaker 1: all night, please, I'll do the ravel. I want to 488 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:25,880 Speaker 1: drive drive question ring, This is the drive to the globe. 489 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:30,200 Speaker 1: Give me thanks. We'll drying us down on Bloomberg Radio. 490 00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:31,920 Speaker 1: All right, just about ten and a half minutes left 491 00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 1: in today's trading session. I'm kind of setting up my 492 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,199 Speaker 1: four screens of the Bloomberg terminal so that I can track, uh, 493 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,119 Speaker 1: the dump of earnings that we're going to get from 494 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:44,400 Speaker 1: big tech names TIMM and Microsoft, Apple all set to report, 495 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:46,880 Speaker 1: among many other Starbucks too. These are big ones. They 496 00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 1: have provided a lot of momentum, certainly to the trade 497 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,720 Speaker 1: over the last year or so. Let's see what Hillary 498 00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:54,960 Speaker 1: Kramer has to say when it comes to today's market 499 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,879 Speaker 1: trade and those earnings yet to come. Hillary Kramer is President, 500 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 1: chief investment Officer at a G Capital Research, author of 501 00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,320 Speaker 1: Game Change. You're Investing How a profit from tomorrow's billion 502 00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,160 Speaker 1: dollar trend. She's on the phone in New York City. 503 00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,479 Speaker 1: Good to have you back with us. What's on your 504 00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 1: radar today? Because we've talked a lot about big tech earnings, 505 00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:16,200 Speaker 1: Chinese oversight, Chinese big text selling off, We've talked about 506 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,960 Speaker 1: the delta variant. What really matters to the equity trade 507 00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:23,360 Speaker 1: near view. All of the above is okay too. It's 508 00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,360 Speaker 1: everything that you mentioned. But in the market's very nervous 509 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:28,960 Speaker 1: here for sure, and that's what those those variants are. 510 00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:31,879 Speaker 1: But you have, right, you have China, the valuations are 511 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,920 Speaker 1: high and overstretched. But then we have these like brutal 512 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,280 Speaker 1: fell offs, right with these sharp sell offs, and then 513 00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,679 Speaker 1: like everyone gets kind of shaken out, and then you know, 514 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,920 Speaker 1: and then everyone comes back in um. But I think 515 00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:46,600 Speaker 1: that I really do think that COVID with the delta 516 00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 1: variant is an issue. The FED stopping with tapering could 517 00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,520 Speaker 1: really be a concern because next could be, you know, 518 00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:57,200 Speaker 1: raising rates and no one's really talking about taxes. And 519 00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:01,280 Speaker 1: at three point five trillion dollar in for structure deal, 520 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 1: human infrastructure deal that needs to be paid for, and 521 00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:08,320 Speaker 1: that's concerning everybody from the far left to the far right. 522 00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:10,760 Speaker 1: You know, ordinarily it's something that you know, we all 523 00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,520 Speaker 1: want and we you know, we we recognize the importance. 524 00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:16,960 Speaker 1: But when you're talking three point five trillion, the markets 525 00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:21,359 Speaker 1: very nervous. Now in terms of specifics, Carol, Apple is tricky. 526 00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:23,680 Speaker 1: Let's talk about earnings, like like in a few minutes 527 00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:27,760 Speaker 1: from now what's it? What's on my radar? Apple is 528 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,200 Speaker 1: really tricky because five G I think is already built in. 529 00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:34,359 Speaker 1: You know, it's not Apple is not a top line grower. 530 00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:36,359 Speaker 1: They don't have all that cash that they used to have. 531 00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:38,840 Speaker 1: Everyone thinks of Apple is like you rich in cash, 532 00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:41,200 Speaker 1: but they block back so much stock. And then I 533 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,520 Speaker 1: was looking today at the operating income. In two thousand 534 00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:47,000 Speaker 1: and sixteen, Apple's operating income was sixty nine billion. Last 535 00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,360 Speaker 1: year it was seventy seven billion. It is not a 536 00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:53,720 Speaker 1: big growing company. I do think Microsoft is going to 537 00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:57,160 Speaker 1: be great. I think that they're they just continue, you know, 538 00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:00,360 Speaker 1: on all cylinders to grow and everything for um, you 539 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:05,240 Speaker 1: know gaming, uh, to their web services and cloud computing, 540 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:09,760 Speaker 1: so they're very strong and uh and to those those 541 00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:13,280 Speaker 1: That's really what's on the radar. UM. My other concern, 542 00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:16,400 Speaker 1: of course, is what we're going to hear in terms 543 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:20,719 Speaker 1: of like, for example, Caterpillar on Friday, you know reporting 544 00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:23,760 Speaker 1: we have Ford. Now Ford doesn't matter a lot, but 545 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,479 Speaker 1: Ford on Wednesday is going to matter to me because 546 00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:28,800 Speaker 1: we want to hear what more what Ford has to 547 00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:33,280 Speaker 1: say to the to the minute about difficulty with the 548 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,120 Speaker 1: supply chain. Right, you know, we keep hearing that everyone 549 00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:40,400 Speaker 1: knows that my conductors are a problem, but okays just 550 00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:43,400 Speaker 1: have to do it all yourself. Huh, well you have 551 00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:46,560 Speaker 1: the problem is that's just it. Nobody really can And 552 00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:48,719 Speaker 1: I think that one of the reasons we see a 553 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:53,240 Speaker 1: lot of these um engineering and infrastructure companies not really 554 00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:55,680 Speaker 1: like catching a bid even with a one point five 555 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:59,640 Speaker 1: chillion dollar you know, like actual infrastructure coming. That's not 556 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:03,240 Speaker 1: the human infrastructure bill that we're going to see. But 557 00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:05,280 Speaker 1: the concern is how are they going to really be 558 00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:08,160 Speaker 1: able to build? You know, they're really backed up because 559 00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:11,560 Speaker 1: of that. And so what I am advising and what 560 00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:14,600 Speaker 1: we're writing about is that we think that the banks, 561 00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,120 Speaker 1: you know, there's a sort of built an expectation of recession, 562 00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:19,760 Speaker 1: so we think the banks are the best opportunity here, 563 00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:24,120 Speaker 1: and the banks are also a great proxy for for 564 00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:25,960 Speaker 1: having Hilary, I want to go back to something that 565 00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:27,720 Speaker 1: you said a couple of minutes ago, was regard to 566 00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,120 Speaker 1: the delta variant. Did you say that it is of 567 00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 1: a concern or is not a concern for markets right now? 568 00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:38,040 Speaker 1: It's it's it's becoming it's becoming a yawn, right It's 569 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:42,160 Speaker 1: not as much of a concern as it had been. However, 570 00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:44,000 Speaker 1: it's a kind of thing that can you know, that 571 00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:46,360 Speaker 1: can bite us, you know, that can just you know, 572 00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:49,000 Speaker 1: get us really quick, and especially when you see the 573 00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:52,800 Speaker 1: numbers and how fast COVID can Why is it? Why 574 00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:55,440 Speaker 1: is it a yawn If the cdc IS is changing 575 00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,920 Speaker 1: its guidance. If we saw the sell off a week 576 00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,880 Speaker 1: ago Monday, the narrative around that was because of concerns 577 00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:02,920 Speaker 1: about the delta variant, Why is it a yawned? To you? 578 00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:07,200 Speaker 1: Because the market worries about the unknown, what it absolutely 579 00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:10,479 Speaker 1: doesn't understand that could hit it, you know, like you know, 580 00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:12,360 Speaker 1: a chair, like you couldn't hit over the head to 581 00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,800 Speaker 1: the stock market worries, but everyone has sort of this 582 00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:19,120 Speaker 1: built an expectation. We're no longer in March April of 583 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,600 Speaker 1: where we're wearing, you know, two pairs of gloves and 584 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:25,280 Speaker 1: we're stripping down when we get home. That the concept 585 00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:29,760 Speaker 1: now is okay, COVID is bad now. I'm saying what 586 00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:33,920 Speaker 1: the sentiment is in my opinion. Living in New York City, 587 00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:37,720 Speaker 1: Midtown Manhattan, across from n YU Medical Center, Lane Gone, 588 00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:41,120 Speaker 1: I can tell you it is real. It was real. 589 00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:47,320 Speaker 1: I thought dozens of medical examiner trucks, you know, refrigerated 590 00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:52,200 Speaker 1: morgues and it's real, but the market isn't really paying 591 00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:55,760 Speaker 1: attention to it. Instead, the markets more concerned really about 592 00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:59,240 Speaker 1: China right now, which should I think be the least 593 00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,560 Speaker 1: of our concern is accepted. We have a lot of 594 00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:04,040 Speaker 1: investments or some of the funds that are highly invested 595 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:07,160 Speaker 1: in China. You're not so, but wait, so explain that. 596 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:09,240 Speaker 1: What does our audience. I mean, we've talked about that 597 00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:10,880 Speaker 1: a lot in the last couple of days and certainly 598 00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:12,600 Speaker 1: this week and over the last couple of weeks, and 599 00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:15,440 Speaker 1: I really it's going to be when we get to December, 600 00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:18,000 Speaker 1: this is going to be one of our big stories 601 00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,080 Speaker 1: of the year, no doubt about it. What is it 602 00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:22,360 Speaker 1: that our audience needs to you know, continue to pay 603 00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:26,240 Speaker 1: attention to when it comes to China? Uh? That it 604 00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,360 Speaker 1: had to do with really more than Cathy Wood type funds. 605 00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,520 Speaker 1: The funds that are she's getting out of Chinese tech company. 606 00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:34,720 Speaker 1: I know, I saw that. So she's starting to dump 607 00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,480 Speaker 1: and leave those Why would she do that because she 608 00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:42,200 Speaker 1: sees that that her return, her alpha's slipping because of China, 609 00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:45,560 Speaker 1: And that's where one needs to be concerned. To me, 610 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:49,040 Speaker 1: it reminds me of like year two thousand with internet 611 00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:52,560 Speaker 1: stocks starting to fall, but the greater market really didn't 612 00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,720 Speaker 1: have much concern at the same time, though of course, 613 00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:59,120 Speaker 1: you know there could be some spill over. But these 614 00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:02,400 Speaker 1: Chinese stocks, right Ali Baba keeps sitting fifty two week lows. 615 00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:06,200 Speaker 1: Is Ali Baba bargain right now? I don't think so. 616 00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:09,560 Speaker 1: At this point. I wouldn't touch it because we don't 617 00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:12,440 Speaker 1: really know exactly what's happening in China. But we have 618 00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:17,520 Speaker 1: enough strength and understanding and transparency in the US market 619 00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:21,080 Speaker 1: that we can we don't have to really worry that. 620 00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,080 Speaker 1: I'm not really focused on China. I mean again, my 621 00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:28,160 Speaker 1: sea concern is inflation. My big concern is we we 622 00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:31,400 Speaker 1: have these unemployment benefits are expiring, the last of them 623 00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:34,080 Speaker 1: September three, So we have unemployment and you have this 624 00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:39,440 Speaker 1: extra three dollars which some states have already eradicated. But um, 625 00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:41,719 Speaker 1: you know, we could we could see that could be 626 00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:44,960 Speaker 1: the big hipping point. Listen, I want to think is 627 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,240 Speaker 1: remnning that time. And but one of the things you 628 00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:49,880 Speaker 1: say is avoid big tech until after earnings. These stocks 629 00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,040 Speaker 1: will get cheaper if you say you're worried about a bubble. 630 00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:55,480 Speaker 1: This is where the bubble is. But potentially there could 631 00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:58,040 Speaker 1: be some opportunities after we get this this dump of 632 00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:01,560 Speaker 1: big tech earnings. Yeah, and the reason is simply that 633 00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:05,959 Speaker 1: people go back into it. So it's almost it's always 634 00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:08,800 Speaker 1: more of a trade at this point. But you're looking 635 00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:11,879 Speaker 1: at valuations that are overstretched. But at the same time, 636 00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:15,279 Speaker 1: I will say Apple is trading at times or next 637 00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:20,839 Speaker 1: year's earnings. That still isn't horrible. But Microsoft, which I love, 638 00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:22,319 Speaker 1: and I think that they're going to be the one 639 00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:24,720 Speaker 1: that we're going to see up, you know, in in 640 00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,799 Speaker 1: in trade, in after market trading. Tomorrow morning, we're gonna 641 00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,399 Speaker 1: see up it's it's Microsoft. I never thought I would 642 00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:36,160 Speaker 1: see it thirty trading at thirty four times June earnings. So, 643 00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:39,279 Speaker 1: M Carol, it's a worry, it's a concern. So we 644 00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:41,920 Speaker 1: all have forgotten the fact that you know, these were 645 00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:45,120 Speaker 1: stocks that were all trading below a hundred dollars, you know, 646 00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:50,240 Speaker 1: and that are Yes, it's very different overstretched. Everyone's looking 647 00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:52,640 Speaker 1: for yield, everyone's looking for return. There's two much of 648 00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:55,520 Speaker 1: liquidity out there. The set has done us absolutely no favors. 649 00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:58,439 Speaker 1: They've made billionaires out of some and there are lots 650 00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:01,440 Speaker 1: of people that don't have it. Hillary. We've got to run, 651 00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:03,479 Speaker 1: but thank you so much. You covered so much ground, 652 00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:05,320 Speaker 1: like you always do. Hillary Kramer, she's ever at A 653 00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:10,120 Speaker 1: and G Capital Research, joining us on the phone. Thanks 654 00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:14,040 Speaker 1: for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, 655 00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:16,279 Speaker 1: or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to 656 00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:18,919 Speaker 1: our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio 657 00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:21,800 Speaker 1: or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News