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Speaker 1: Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's down to place

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Speaker 1: your bets to this met Joey p joe Pizipia and

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Speaker 1: this is the bp NFL Black Friday Special. That's right.

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Speaker 1: Who needs to go out and get all that savings? No, no, no,

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Speaker 1: Why do you want to get pushed around and stomp

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Speaker 1: to death at a Walmart when you could be at

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Speaker 1: home watching Prime video watching the Kansas City Chiefs and

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Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders play football. Will it be a

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Speaker 1: good game? We're not sure, but it is a game,

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Speaker 1: and that means we're gonna bet on it. So make

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Speaker 1: sure you hang out with us for the next still,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, fifteen to twenty minutes as we break

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Speaker 1: down the Black Friday game here. And look, the last time,

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Speaker 1: you know, at the end of the year, we saw

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Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders coming to Kansas City. It was

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Speaker 1: a shocking result. I don't know if we're gonna get

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Speaker 1: that shocking result. I do know this, Gardner Minshew's out,

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Speaker 1: Aidan O'Connell is back, so he's going to get the

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Speaker 1: start here for the Las Vegas Raiders, and of course

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Speaker 1: Bogman and the Undertaker are here to help us figure

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Speaker 1: out how to approach this Black Friday game in the afternoon.

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Speaker 1: So let's start with the tail of the tape. Because

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Speaker 1: the number, I mean, it's enormous, thirteen minus thirteen for

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Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs. Really, Kansasity Chiefs are just barely

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Speaker 1: scooched out of Carolina with a victory. Now, I know

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Speaker 1: this one is at home, but thirteen, I don't know,

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Speaker 1: seems like a lot to me. Maybe I'm wrong, but

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Speaker 1: I know Andrew ricks is going to point out to

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Speaker 1: me it's an in division game and those are different.

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Speaker 1: Forty two and a half is the number, plus five

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Speaker 1: point fifty for the upset, and again last year there

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Speaker 1: was an upset. So that being said, I have set

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Speaker 1: the stage for you to use all your coupons on

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Speaker 1: this game. Andrew Rickson, go.

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Speaker 2: I'm taking the Raiders. Given the Raiders with all the points,

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Speaker 2: I feel better if they're playing at home. But they're

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Speaker 2: not playing at home. They're playing on the road. But hey,

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Speaker 2: I don't think aight, O'Connell and this team is gonna

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Speaker 2: be phase to point out how they won in the

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Speaker 2: spot last year. Now, that game was very fluky in

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Speaker 2: terms of the Raiders scored two defensive touchdowns and in

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Speaker 2: O'Connell basically threw for no yards in the second half

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Speaker 2: of the game, and they just ran the ball with

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Speaker 2: Samir White. So I don't think this is an upset

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Speaker 2: special by any means. I think the Chief's playing in

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Speaker 2: all I think that does matter. But I think having

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Speaker 2: a no connolact quarterback instead of desmon Ridder is a

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Speaker 2: massive upgrade for the Las Vegas Raiders. I know, Joe

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Speaker 2: we talked about on the look Ahead show about how

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Speaker 2: desmont Ridder is just a turnover waiting to happen every

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Speaker 2: time he touched the ball.

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Speaker 1: As soon as he went in that game, I was like,

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Speaker 1: oh my god, he was like Sosa had twenty cups.

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Speaker 3: Of coffee or something.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I got extremely anxious, and I'm not

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Speaker 1: somebody who gets anxious, but I felt like I needed

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Speaker 1: some sort of emotional support Pillow watching him coming to

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Speaker 1: that game, it was very upsetting.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So O'Connell again, assuming everything's okay with the thumb,

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Speaker 2: he's been practicing in full, getting all the first team reps.

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Speaker 2: Look he's been He's eight and three one against the spread,

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Speaker 2: including last season. So one on one this year, so

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Speaker 2: I like him overall to just keep this within striking this.

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Speaker 2: You look at the Chiefs defense. They have struggled the

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Speaker 2: last two weeks against the Bills. Okay, understandable. It's the Panthers, Hmm,

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Speaker 2: that's a bit unusual giving up twenty seven points in

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Speaker 2: back to back weeks.

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Speaker 1: Hey, and the Broncos took him to their you know, yeah,

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Speaker 1: forget that.

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Speaker 2: So we know that the Chiefs are running hotter than

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Speaker 2: the sun. They have won all their close games or

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Speaker 2: eight hine close games, so eventually it's going to catch

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Speaker 2: up with them. I think that that might end up

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Speaker 2: happening in the playoffs, not necessarily in this spot. But

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Speaker 2: they're not a team that blows people out. We've been

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Speaker 2: talking about this every single week when we talk about

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Speaker 2: betting in Chiefs games. Right, Why are we going to

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Speaker 2: lay this amount of points with Kansas City when they

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Speaker 2: have shown no desire or will or ability to beat

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Speaker 2: teams by two touchdowns, let alone division rivals that have

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Speaker 2: already beat them and shown them that they can compete

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Speaker 2: with them. We saw this game playoff in Las Vegas

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Speaker 2: earlier this year. It was a seven point game entering

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Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter ended up being a seven point

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Speaker 2: game because of a backdoor covered by the Raiders. So

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Speaker 2: I don't think that the Raiders are going to look

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Speaker 2: at this matchup again. They're playing on quote unquote prime

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Speaker 2: time Black Friday. It's their time the black hole. They're

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Speaker 2: going to be fired up again. They're two to nine team,

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Speaker 2: but they don't care. They were playing the Chiefs like

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Speaker 2: this is again going back to these teams that are

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Speaker 2: really bad get hyped up for these divisional matchups. So

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Speaker 2: I like the Raiders in the spot. I think the

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Speaker 2: key to the victory for them. Besides, I was getting

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Speaker 2: pressure on my mahomes with Max mass Crosby the tight

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Speaker 2: end position. Right, the Chiefs have been one of the

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Speaker 2: worst teams against Titans this season. Who is the Raiders'

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Speaker 2: best player on offense?

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Speaker 4: It's who should be Rookie of the years.

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Speaker 2: Can't argue with the numbers.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's gonna be gon be in the playoff.

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Speaker 2: It's gonna go to quarterback because that's how the works.

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Speaker 4: Ron Bowers is top ten in receiving yards, not as

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Speaker 4: bad in receiving yards.

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Speaker 2: What was Pooka last year? Right, doesn't matter if there's

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Speaker 2: a quarterback that's good. That's a rookie. He's gonna get You're.

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Speaker 1: Right, right, I'm where Ericson is. I agree, which I hate,

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Speaker 1: but I agree. I'm taking the Raiders with the points here.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they went outright. I think Kansas City

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Speaker 1: will come out with a victory here. But I do

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Speaker 1: think it's just way too many points. Where are you at?

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Speaker 4: Which is not the most admiral acbar game in the world.

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Speaker 4: This is a trap, man, This feels like a trap.

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Speaker 4: The trend has been towards the Raiders, but and even

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Speaker 4: last week the Chiefs looked terrible against the Panthers. I

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Speaker 4: don't know, man, I I this is why I say

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Speaker 4: don't bet the game, bet the props on these games, right,

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Speaker 4: because I don't have a good feel for this game.

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Speaker 4: If I'm taking trends, which I hate to do, uh,

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Speaker 4: then I'm taking the Raiders right because, like you guys said,

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Speaker 4: this has been the trend in this game. They upset

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Speaker 4: them on a you know, on a holiday game last

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Speaker 4: year on Christmas they played within seven earlier. The Chiefs

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Speaker 4: haven't been doing it. But this is one of those

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Speaker 4: games where I feel like the luck turns towards the Chiefs.

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Speaker 4: I'm just gonna take him and lay the points. I

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Speaker 4: probably won't have a lot of skin in this one,

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Speaker 4: but I hate the Raiders. I think Antonio Pears is

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Speaker 4: the worst coach in NFL history. Maybe I don't think

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Speaker 4: he was a good selection.

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Speaker 1: Oh no, he's not a close. He's not even close

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Speaker 1: to urban Meyer.

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Speaker 4: I think you're right, you know, you're right, You're absolutely

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Speaker 4: right about urban But but he is.

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Speaker 5: He is the worst since urban Meyer.

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Speaker 2: I think erb Meyer did beat the Bills.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't know who guys have worked for him for

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Speaker 1: two years?

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Speaker 2: Are he also signed Tim Tebows tight end that?

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Speaker 1: Uh did you see that that conversation with Mike Rabel

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Speaker 1: or urban Meyer where he was like what urban Meyer said?

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Speaker 1: Do I know you? When he goes, yeah, I worked

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Speaker 1: for you for two years on your staff.

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Speaker 4: He also, god, he's also an Ohio state legend. I mean, yea, yeah,

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Speaker 4: Mike Rabel got drafted by this Steelers. He actually knocked

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Speaker 4: the Patriots out of the playoffs one year. I know,

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Speaker 4: I know Joe remembers that.

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Speaker 1: So remember a lot of things.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, forget but uh but but yeah, man, I just

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Speaker 4: I'm old enough to remember that the Raiders are bad.

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Speaker 5: So I'm gonna lay take.

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Speaker 1: The chief and you're right.

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Speaker 4: But you know the way these games, I just think

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Speaker 4: like something weird happens. Let me ask you this, something

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Speaker 4: weird happens in the first quarter and Desmond Ritder comes

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Speaker 4: in this game.

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Speaker 5: How many points do the Chiefs win by?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I would not you're in a thing box.

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Speaker 1: It could still be a blowout and a backdoor cover

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Speaker 1: where this Chiefs still win by ten and we go, well,

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs dominated this.

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Speaker 4: Game, but it also could be within seven points in

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Speaker 4: the chief score, defensive touchdown, late andy and cover. So

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Speaker 4: that's again, this is why I don't like taking the

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Speaker 4: game with the large bread or on short rest. I

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Speaker 4: don't like doing it, but I'm gonna lay the points

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Speaker 4: to take the Chiefs because I hate the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: All right, Just a quick reminder, there's still plenty of

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Speaker 1: time to win the Mike Evans Buccaneers helmet we're giving away.

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Speaker 1: If you want a chance to win this bad Boy

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Speaker 1: for free courtesy of our friends at Pristine Auction dot com,

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Speaker 1: all you need to do is at the Betting pros

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Speaker 1: dot com slash contest, complete the form and either download

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Speaker 1: the Betting Pros app leave a review of Betting Pros podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or subscribe to our social media channels at Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: at X and the TikTok and at Betting Pros NFL

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Speaker 1: on the Instagram. The more actions you complete, the more

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Speaker 1: entries you receive, and we'll be announcing the winner right

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Speaker 1: here on the channel. So make sure you turn on

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Speaker 1: those darn notifications so you never miss a show and

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Speaker 1: you're alerted if you are the big winner of the

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Speaker 1: Mike Evans autograph Buccaneers helmet for Pristine Auction. Let's get

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Speaker 1: to the props. That's where Bogman gets really happy, Boggs.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with Patrick Mahomes thirty three and a half

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Speaker 1: passing attempts and you are taking the over.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the Raiders' opponents have gone over this

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Speaker 4: total and four straight, including Mahomes who had thirty eight

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Speaker 4: in their first matchup. The Raiders run defense has been

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Speaker 4: strong recently. They held Denver, Miami, and Kansas City three

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Speaker 4: their last four opponents to under one hundred yards and

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Speaker 4: Kansas City's averaging thirty four point six pass attempts per game.

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Speaker 4: I just think, you know, even with Puchecko potentially back

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Speaker 4: in Kareem Hunt. That's a nice combo, but they're gonna

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Speaker 4: pass a lot because Raiders secondary is absolutely trash.

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Speaker 1: All right, back to you ericson. I know brock Bowers

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Speaker 1: is somebody that we were just discussing. His number is

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Speaker 1: sixty one and a half. Can the Undertaker go over here?

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Speaker 2: Yes, It's just this is the game for Brock Howers.

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Speaker 2: If the Raiders have any chance of keeping this clothes,

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Speaker 2: it's good because of him. And I know he's coming

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Speaker 2: off a down game because den Bronco's basically put everybody

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Speaker 2: on their defense against him to try to stop him,

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Speaker 2: because they're a smart team. But I think you're gonna

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Speaker 2: see more what the Dolphins did, where they just let

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Speaker 2: him destroy. And that's what the Chiefs have done this year.

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Speaker 2: They have not been able to stop tight ends. They've

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Speaker 2: allowed the most yards after the cash to tight ends

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Speaker 2: this season, over four hundred yards just after the catch

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Speaker 2: to tight ends. So there's just gonna be no stopping

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Speaker 2: rock Bowers. Travis Bill, He's gonna look up and say, man,

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Speaker 2: that guy's gonna be a next best tight end for

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Speaker 2: the next fifteen years.

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Speaker 5: Like I used to be wow.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And you've also got Bowers at the anytime touchdown

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Speaker 1: plus two eighty, which is a pretty good number. He

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Speaker 1: has had a lot of touchdowns this year, so that's

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Speaker 1: an interesting little mini parlay you can put together on

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Speaker 1: the prop side too, Bowers for the over sixty one

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Speaker 1: and a half and on the anytime touchdown side, So

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Speaker 1: it'd be nice for brock Bowers to find the end

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Speaker 1: zone a little bit more for fantasy purposes. That's for

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Speaker 1: damn sure. Also, Boggs, you are in on the sixty

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Speaker 1: one and a half for brock Bowers too. Anything to

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Speaker 1: add from Ericson's I.

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Speaker 4: Mean Bowers is top ten receiving case is worse than

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Speaker 4: the NFL against the tight end. As Erickson mentioned, he

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Speaker 4: did only have five for fifty eight in their first matchup,

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Speaker 4: but he has had twenty six targets in the last

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Speaker 4: two weeks brock Bowers has and in the only game

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Speaker 4: that O'Connell has started against Pittsburgh, he had ten targets,

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Speaker 4: nine catches and seventy one yards. So O'Connell knows the

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Speaker 4: smart money is to throw the ball into brock bowers area,

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Speaker 4: and I think that's going to continue to happen.

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Speaker 1: All right, Bogs, let's go back to you for another

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Speaker 1: one here. Travis kelce the other tight end in this game. Now,

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Speaker 1: fifty nine and a half receiving yards is his number?

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Speaker 1: You want to go over or under that?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, let's go over. I mean I'm tired of this.

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Speaker 4: Noah, great stuff, right, this is a this is a

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Speaker 4: holiday game.

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Speaker 1: You're tired of it. Fantasy teams of misery, misery last weekend.

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Speaker 5: Let's have Travis kelcey get back on track here.

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Speaker 4: Over fifty nine and a half he had twelve targets,

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Speaker 4: ten catches, ninety yards and a score against the Raiders

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Speaker 4: earlier this year, It's still lots of target targets every week,

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Speaker 4: eight in four of his last five games. And the

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Speaker 4: Raiders not quite as bad as the Chiefs against the

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Speaker 4: tight end, but they are twenty seventh in receiving yards

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Speaker 4: allowed to tight ends this year, so still not very good.

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Speaker 5: So let's go with that over on the Travis kelce yardage.

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Speaker 1: And finally, Andrew Erickson take us home with another one

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Speaker 1: here for an O'Connell. How are you going to approach

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Speaker 1: his return after being on the IR for a few weeks?

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Speaker 2: Whenever his props drop for his rushing yards. They're not

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Speaker 2: live yet. I was looking back at some of the

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Speaker 2: ones they had posted earlier when he was the starter.

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Speaker 2: This guy does not run whatsoever, and it's like historically

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Speaker 2: paced that he does not run the football. Per next

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Speaker 2: Gen Stats, O'Connell has not attempted a single scramble on

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Speaker 2: any of his dropbacks since entering the NFL. Like he

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Speaker 2: just never never runs.

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Speaker 5: He never also built like a guy that doesn't.

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Speaker 3: Yes, he is the statue of all.

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Speaker 2: He has cement in his cleats. He will not move whatsoever.

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Speaker 4: Again, thanksgiving Parlay fewer rushing yards Drew Locke or Abe O'Connell.

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Speaker 2: I'm taking he is not moving for any yards. Again. Again,

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Speaker 2: this is per next Gen Stats. He's the only quarterback

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Speaker 2: in the next Gen Stats era to not record a

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Speaker 2: single scramble on a rushing attempt on any dropback with

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Speaker 2: a minimum hundred fifty drop backs. Basically, he's doing exactly

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Speaker 2: what Drew Brees did. Again, both guys are from Purdue.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if it's a Purdue things like, hey,

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Speaker 2: we're just never gonna run the NFL level. But whenever

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Speaker 2: this prop drops, I the last time it was available

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Speaker 2: was at one and a half rushing yards earlier this season.

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Speaker 2: I would imagine it probably opens up with a half

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Speaker 2: a yard. I don't care.

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Speaker 5: They're not allowed to run. They only take trains.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I would tell I mean, I would even

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Speaker 2: consider it the under if it was negative yardage, Like.

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Speaker 5: He's not moving, he's not moving.

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Speaker 1: O'Connell's not the guy you want to pick when you're

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Speaker 1: do in the backyard football game, if you're trying to

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Speaker 1: get out there in space a little bit over the

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Speaker 1: weekend there over the holiday. All right, gentlemen, it's done

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Speaker 1: for the Black Friday parlay, and here we go. And

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Speaker 1: I've got actually a two versions of it. The first

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Speaker 1: one is the simple version of plus two sixty taking

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Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders points plus twelve and a half,

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Speaker 1: and then the over for this game at forty two

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Speaker 1: and a half, because again, if they're get to cover,

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Speaker 1: I think then it would be probably a little bit

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Speaker 1: more points in this game, I believe. So that will

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Speaker 1: get you to plus two sixty. But if you take

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Speaker 1: that same parlay and add in the lock that all

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Speaker 1: three of us think is actually one of the best bets,

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Speaker 1: about the best bet in this game is the sixty

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Speaker 1: one and a half receiving yards for brock Bowers. You

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Speaker 1: put that in the plus two sixty becomes plus four

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Speaker 1: twenty four, and that, my friends, is a very nice

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Speaker 1: savings on Black Friday. So again, just a quick reminder

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Speaker 1: if you're trying to bet props, use the prop bet

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Speaker 1: cheat sheet over on the app, download the Betting pros

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Speaker 1: app or go to bettingpros dot com. Slash props one

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Speaker 1: of the many tools over there that can help you

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Speaker 1: become successful in your wagering. And when you download the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros app, you get the three free days of premium,

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00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:24,000
Speaker 1: which is pretty spectacular. Use the tools. This is betting

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Speaker 1: season now, Fantasy seasons going bye bye for a lot

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Speaker 1: of you. Betting season, Wabit season starts right now, baby,

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Speaker 1: let's go. We've got the college football playoffs around the corner.

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Speaker 1: We've got these big time NFL games, and then of

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Speaker 1: course the NFL playoffs right around the corner, plus NBA, NHL.

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Speaker 1: It's all going down right here on Betting pro. Subscribe

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Speaker 1: to the YouTube channel, drop your comments below too, and

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Speaker 1: ring the bell to They Coast Ding for notifications because

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Speaker 1: we'll be back on Sunday with more content here for you,

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Speaker 1: our wonderful Betting Pros community that'll do it for us,

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Speaker 1: but the story of the game goes on for Scott

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Speaker 1: Bogman and Andrew Eerckson. I'm Joey p Well see you

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Speaker 1: next times, Happy Black Friday, don't spend too much money.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

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