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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of his information. Wouldn't

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Speaker 1: you agree A five dollars? This is a regular lesson?

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Speaker 1: How about they tackle ship one? Man. You're saying that

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Speaker 1: humans need fantasy to make life bearable. Humans need fantasy

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Speaker 1: to be human? My Goodness's speak. I suppose the best, relentless,

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Speaker 1: refusing to give up. All right, hit that horn, baby bless.

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Speaker 1: What's up everybody, and welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I am your host, Chris Raybond. This is our pre

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Speaker 1: draft podcast where we are going to talk all about

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Speaker 1: potential landing spots, maybe sprinkle a little dynasty in there,

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Speaker 1: talk about some basketball ADPs, and just who could be

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Speaker 1: affected in terms of the fantasy landscape with this upcoming draft.

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Speaker 1: Got my dude, Sean Kerner back with us. What's going on, Sean?

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Speaker 1: How you doing? What's up? I'm happy to be back.

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Speaker 2: This is like the officially the launch of the twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two season for me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you've been kind of chilling. I know you've been

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Speaker 1: doing some some high scenes chilling. Yeah, yeah, you know

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Speaker 1: what I meant, chowing on football. I know you've been

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Speaker 1: doing some working hard, doing some behind the scenes things

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Speaker 1: for MLB and MBA and you know, we're right in

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Speaker 1: the thick of the playoffs, so we got to hang

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Speaker 1: out and watch some games last week.

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Speaker 2: So that was, yeah, betting on random ski ball, oh yeah,

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Speaker 2: things like that. So that part I'm chilling. Hopefully we

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Speaker 2: could do more of that this weekend. But yeah, other

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Speaker 2: than that, been grinding everything other than NFL. But I

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Speaker 2: love the draft because right when the draft ends, that's

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Speaker 2: when I start cranking out my initial projections and rankings.

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Speaker 1: So I can't wait for that to happen next week. Yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 1: This is like, this is like the last episode for

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Speaker 1: the hardcore listeners. You know, you know, can't really do

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Speaker 1: much actionable. We can bet on the draft, you know,

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Speaker 1: we have some we have our draft podcast out with

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Speaker 1: Scott Smith. We have the Favorites out, Stuck In, Out

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Speaker 1: of Wind, Total pot Out, But like this is like

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Speaker 1: I would say, the last real hardcore one and then

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Speaker 1: after the draft we start getting more actionable information. But

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Speaker 1: we still got some some good nuggets for you on

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Speaker 1: this one in terms of, you know, how these guys

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Speaker 1: are going to kind of perform in a rookie year

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Speaker 1: based on where they're drafted, and things like that. So

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Speaker 1: let's get right into it. Let's start with quarterbacks. I'll

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Speaker 1: just start with you know, using looking at the sportsbooks

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Speaker 1: odds of teams that are likely to draft a quarterback first.

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Speaker 1: You know, there are three teams that their first position

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Speaker 1: draft odds are quarterback in the top spot with the

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Speaker 1: shortest odds. That's Carolina at even money, Pittsburgh got plus

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Speaker 1: one twenty five and New Orleans at plus one p fifty.

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Speaker 1: They also have Seattle, Atlanta and Detroit. Who are who

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Speaker 1: are you know in the top six plus two twenty

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Speaker 1: five for Seattle, four to one for a five to

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Speaker 1: one for Detroit, and then of course Sean. You know,

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Speaker 1: the top two quarterbacks on the board, Malik Willis out

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Speaker 1: of Liberty. Can you pick it out of pit? They're

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Speaker 1: eightyp's in best ball right now? Willis twenty four picket

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Speaker 1: thirty one. What are your just general thoughts on this

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Speaker 1: quarterback class and who's who's gonna pony up and take

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Speaker 1: that first quarterback off the board.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so overall this is not a great draft class.

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Speaker 2: We're kind of spoiled the past two drafts knowing who

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Speaker 2: is going number one, So there's no Trevor Lawrence or

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Speaker 2: Joe Burrow this year. But we have two guys that

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Speaker 2: will probably be drafted to start this year, and that's

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Speaker 2: you know, Malik Willis and Kenny Pickett. You know, the

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Speaker 2: Panthers are the most likely team to draft a quarterback first,

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Speaker 2: so that would be an interesting predicament because they have

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Speaker 2: Sam Darnold. But you know, whoever they draft will probably

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Speaker 2: take over sooner than later this season, so that's going

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Speaker 2: to be really good for their fantasy value. I think

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Speaker 2: the Steelers are interesting. You know, they have Mitch Trubisky

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Speaker 2: Mason Rudolph right now, so whoever, if they draft a quarterback,

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Speaker 2: we'd have a chance to start this year and that's

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Speaker 2: a better fit. You know, they have you know, Chase Claypool,

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Speaker 2: Dantia Johnson, Pat Fire moves, so that's a good landing spot.

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Speaker 1: So you know, the landing spot is going to be key.

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Speaker 2: But overall, I think Malik Willis is going to be

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Speaker 2: the guy to draft in fantasy just because of his

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Speaker 2: rushing ability. You know, he has a cannon for an arm,

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Speaker 2: so he could be like a Josh Allen type like

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Speaker 2: that's his ceiling. So he's gonna have to go somewhere

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Speaker 2: that can coach him up, develop him, but early on

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Speaker 2: he could be more of like a jail and Hurts

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Speaker 2: where he just leans on his legs a ton if

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Speaker 2: Trey Lance played more last year, probably like a Trey

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Speaker 2: Lance type. So he's going to be really good for fantasy,

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Speaker 2: potentially pushing QB one value if he hits. So he's

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Speaker 2: probably the most intriguing option, whereas can he Pickett. He

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Speaker 2: might get drafted by the Panthers so that he'd be

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Speaker 2: more likely to start game, so that gives them some value.

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Speaker 2: And you know, super Flex Formats is like a low

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Speaker 2: end QB two just because he'll probably start over eight games.

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Speaker 2: So those are the two guys that I'm you know,

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Speaker 2: having an eye on. And then we have this tier

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Speaker 2: too with four or five other quarterbacks who probably would

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Speaker 2: need an injury. They're probably gonna drafted as a backup,

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Speaker 2: so their landing spots is going to be key, and

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Speaker 2: they might need some other luck to kind of start.

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Speaker 1: Games this year. But that's kind of how I'm doing

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Speaker 1: this class overall. Yeah, I think Carolina is really a

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Speaker 1: team to watch. You know, they're top. They're the shortest

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Speaker 1: odds for both Willis at plus two fifty and pick

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Speaker 1: it at plus one fifty. But I just like the

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Speaker 1: kind of what you're getting if you're going to Carolina

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Speaker 1: as a quarterback. From a fantasy perspective, whether it's Picket

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Speaker 1: or will Us, I like willis a lot better, just because,

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Speaker 1: like you said, I think he has that higher rushing upside.

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Speaker 1: But think about Carolina. It's like you're playing in that

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Speaker 1: division that got a lot weaker. You know, Atlanta is

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Speaker 1: going to be bad, the New Orleans could be bad,

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Speaker 1: who knows, and Tampa Bay might not even be as

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Speaker 1: good as they were in the past them and they're

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Speaker 1: dealing with injuries, they're you know, Brady's a year older.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's you know, new coach, a lot of

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Speaker 1: things going on with Tampa Bay. And you're still throwing

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Speaker 1: a Christian McCaffrey like one hundred and fifty times a

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Speaker 1: year if he stays healthy, You're still throwing a DJ more.

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Speaker 1: You know. I think it's you know, it's intriguing, and

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Speaker 1: then you're gonna be able to just run around when

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Speaker 1: you're not doing that. And they kind of like the

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Speaker 1: Eagles we mentioned with Hurts. The Eagles were going super

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Speaker 1: run heavy for the second half of the year, and

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Speaker 1: we saw Carolina kind of do that down the stretch,

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Speaker 1: and that seemed to be what Matt Rule wanted to

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Speaker 1: do with that team. So I think it's intriguing, you know,

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Speaker 1: if you go there, especially if you're a Lake Willis. Uh,

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Speaker 1: it looks like Pickett is more likely, but I would

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Speaker 1: I would like to Seeen Lake Willis go to Carolina.

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Speaker 1: I think either way, I think QB twenty four, wherever

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Speaker 1: Willis goes is too low because I think it's like,

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Speaker 1: if Carolina doesn't take him, then I feel like the

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Speaker 1: team who does take him is going to want to

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Speaker 1: start him, Like I don't think you whoever then goes

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Speaker 1: and takes that next court, like you know, he's gonna

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Speaker 1: be the next one off the board. I don't think

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Speaker 1: they're gonna do it to like sit them. So I mean,

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Speaker 1: because the other teams on the list, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Atlanta, Seattle,

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Speaker 1: really Detroit's the only one that they could sit him

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Speaker 1: for a year. I think Atlanta, Seattle he would play

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Speaker 1: right away. I think Pittsburgh he'd probably play right away too,

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Speaker 1: to be honest. So yeah, I think Willis at QB

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Speaker 1: twenty four is too well. I think would you say

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Speaker 1: Willis are Pickett in dynasty quarterback?

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Speaker 2: That's a tough question because Willis, you know, he might

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Speaker 2: feel like Jalen Hurts were every year, is on borrow time. Like,

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Speaker 2: I can't say he's going to be a starter three

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Speaker 2: years from now. I think Pickett is more likely to be.

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Speaker 2: But just Willis has so much upside, I would still

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Speaker 2: go with Willis. But again, this class isn't very good.

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Speaker 2: We can't say any one of these guys as a

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Speaker 2: franchise quarterback who we can bank on starting in three

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Speaker 2: years from now. So I would just have to go

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Speaker 2: with the upside and still say Willis, whereas Pickett might

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Speaker 2: have the slightly higher floor. But again, whoever, if the

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Speaker 2: Panther draft one of these guys six, you know they're

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Speaker 2: gonna be committed to him.

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Speaker 1: So that's that's gonna boost either one of their value.

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Speaker 2: Or again, like I said, if they go to Pittsburgh,

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Speaker 2: like you said, they're gonna want to start them right away.

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Speaker 2: So either Caroline or Pittsburgh. You know, I like both

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Speaker 2: these guys, But if one of these fall past there

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Speaker 2: go somewhere else, then it's gonna shake things up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I go will so away I just think

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Speaker 1: he has a lot of upside. I mean, you'll go

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Speaker 1: back and watch some of him playing and watch picking.

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Speaker 1: I mean pick. It could be one of those guys

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Speaker 1: and like, you know, four years we're just talking about

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Speaker 1: like is he a franchise quarterback or you know what

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Speaker 1: I mean. It's like kind of making at Baker Mayfield

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Speaker 1: territory whereas it's like going downhill fast. So I and

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Speaker 1: you know, obviously you could be wrong, but yeah, Willis

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Speaker 1: just jumps out. What about any thoughts on Sam Howell?

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Speaker 1: I know, you know he's kind of got some rushing

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Speaker 1: upside too. There are the DraftKings over under for quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: in the first round is four and a half, so

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Speaker 1: there could be a run on quarterbacks. I mean, Ritter

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Speaker 1: is another one, but I don't know how was a

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Speaker 1: little bit interesting. He's even money to go in round one.

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Speaker 1: He could go to like one of these, you know

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Speaker 1: teams that if he's not Carolina or Pittsburgh and potentially

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Speaker 1: rush for a lot of yards if he ended up starting.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, he has that rushing upside, which we love

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Speaker 2: for rookie quarterbacks. He also has a big arm, so

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Speaker 2: if he goes a team with above average downfill threats.

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Speaker 2: That's going to be massive for him. But really this

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Speaker 2: tier too, if you know Ritter, Krall, Howell Strong, any

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Speaker 2: one of these guys can get drafted ahead the other.

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Speaker 2: So it's really just about landing spot draft capital. So

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Speaker 2: whichever one of these guys goes first, I'll be interested in.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, it's it's pretty close between these four. But

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Speaker 2: Howell obviously has the bigger fancy upside just because of

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Speaker 2: his rushing ability and his big arm.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it would be it would be kind of interesting

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Speaker 1: to see him in Seattle because it's like he could

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Speaker 1: just still be like in a run heavy offense and

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Speaker 1: but he could be running and then he could just

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Speaker 1: use his arm to throw it to DK and and

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Speaker 1: lock it. Yeah, yeah, and lock it. So I'll kind

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Speaker 1: of like see him and see Yeah, they have a

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Speaker 1: good of catchers in SATL right now. Yep, all right,

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Speaker 1: let's move on to the kind of bread and butter

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Speaker 1: here when we talk about rookies, and that's that's running back,

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Speaker 1: because especially if you're drafted highly at the running back

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Speaker 1: position and they tend to use you right away. And

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Speaker 1: to put some numbers to that, over the past ten seasons,

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Speaker 1: running backs drafted in round one seventeen point seven touches

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Speaker 1: per game, two hundred and fifty eight touches per season,

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Speaker 1: and eleven of the fourteen have average ten or more

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Speaker 1: PPR points per game. Round two, you're still at twelve

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Speaker 1: point one touches per game, one hundred and fifty seven

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Speaker 1: touches per season, and over half of them average double

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Speaker 1: digit PPR points. And even in round three, you're just

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Speaker 1: below double digit touches at nine point seven per game,

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Speaker 1: and you still have about a you know, one in

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Speaker 1: three chance of averaging double digit PPR points. So, you know,

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Speaker 1: running back when you when a team does draft one,

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Speaker 1: they're usually drafted right away. And if you look at

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Speaker 1: the odds, because books have odds for each team and

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Speaker 1: what they're going to do first, and you can kind

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Speaker 1: of get its sense of the team needs. It's it's

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Speaker 1: not always perfect because it's just you know, first pick.

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Speaker 1: But Buffalo is the only team with a running back

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Speaker 1: you know, odds to be drafted first in the top

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Speaker 1: two slots, and it's plus three fifty. Most teams are

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Speaker 1: at plus two thousand, a plus ten thousand, so Buffalo

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Speaker 1: and then Miami it's plus seven to fifty, so it's

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Speaker 1: still a long shot to draft one first, but you know,

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Speaker 1: books seem to think they're going to probably draft one

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Speaker 1: at some point, which is interesting because they already got

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Speaker 1: Edmands most third, I think Daskon's still on the roster

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Speaker 1: as well, if I'm not mistaken. So I mean there's

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Speaker 1: already a live jam there. But I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna kind of talk some best fits for these guys.

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Speaker 1: But I think that's interesting. And what are your thoughts

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Speaker 1: on kind of just Buffalo, you know, in the market

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Speaker 1: for running back because we love Devin Singletary. Yeah, down

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Speaker 1: the stretch last year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's interesting. I mean, that's a great landing spot.

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Speaker 2: It's a good offense, but they already have Singletary, who

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Speaker 2: I thought was really good at the end of the season.

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Speaker 2: If anything, it's an indictment on Zach Moss. I think

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Speaker 2: whenever they get it could be you know, Zach Moss

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Speaker 2: type of replacements some of these bigger backs later on.

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Speaker 2: But the Bills don't have that many holes, so it

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Speaker 2: makes sense for them to finally just spend up at

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Speaker 2: running backs. So that'd be an interesting landing spot. I

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Speaker 2: don't know if it'd be really good for a guy

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Speaker 2: like Breecee Hall or you know, Kenneth Walker, but obviously

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Speaker 2: it's a good offense. And yeah, the Dolphins is interesting too.

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Speaker 2: They already have a few guys there, so landing spots everything.

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Speaker 2: And this year we probably don't have a first round

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Speaker 2: running back and maybe that's due to you know, the

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Speaker 2: league getting smarter, just knowing that running backs are replaceable.

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Speaker 2: So you know, we have this tier one of Breese

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Speaker 2: Hall and Kenneth Walker and that's pretty wide open after that.

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Speaker 2: So all these guys bring different traits and skills and

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Speaker 2: have certain weaknesses. So it really depends on what team

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Speaker 2: they go to. And also, you know, whatever team they

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Speaker 2: go to, it's gonna impact the running backs already on

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Speaker 2: the roster, so we have to look out for that.

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Speaker 2: You know, I remember Travis ATM last year going to Jacksonville.

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Speaker 2: That was kind of a surprise and that that was

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Speaker 2: a serious hit to James Robinson's stock until ATN obviously

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Speaker 2: got hurt. So that's that's another thing to monitor some

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Speaker 2: of these, like past catching backs later in the draft,

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Speaker 2: if they go to a team with the third down

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Speaker 2: back already locked up, it could be a threat to

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Speaker 2: that player. So there's just a lot of moving parts.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, bres Hall and Kenneth Walker are probably the

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Speaker 2: two best bets this year, so interested to see where

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Speaker 2: they go. And I mean I kind of have him

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Speaker 2: tied right now in terms of fantasy projections. Do you

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Speaker 2: are you leaning towards either one of these backs right now?

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Speaker 1: This is my completely opinion just from like watching these

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Speaker 1: guys play, and most of it is like watching highlights

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Speaker 1: from after the season because I don't get to watch

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Speaker 1: a lot of cops turn a season because obviously we're

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Speaker 1: doing this. But I really like Breese Hall. I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, I just something about the way he runs,

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Speaker 1: and you know, he did run what was it, a

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Speaker 1: four to three nine. I know Walker ran a four

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Speaker 1: to three eight. But Breestall's bigger. You know, he's five

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Speaker 1: eleven two seventeen. Walker's about five nine to eleven. You know,

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Speaker 1: he ran ran a fast forty. He's had five hundred

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Speaker 1: ninety touches over the past two years, so he can

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Speaker 1: likely be a bell cow wherever he goes. You know,

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Speaker 1: I think both like Breesaw is probably like almost like

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Speaker 1: the nausey, and Kenneth Walker's like the ETN where it's like,

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Speaker 1: I feel like Kenneth Walker, you're not necessarily drafting him

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Speaker 1: to be like a twenty touchback, whereas Breese Hall. They

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Speaker 1: you might so, but I also just like I think

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Speaker 1: his skills are better. I really like him watching not

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Speaker 1: that like Walker's really good too, but I think it's

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Speaker 1: a clear top two. But I personally am fond of Hall.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he gives me some like Cream Hunt vibes, and

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Speaker 2: he's the type of back because, you know Cream Hunt,

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Speaker 2: he doesn't need a massive workload to put up RB

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Speaker 2: two value, like I remember Javonte Williams last year was amazing,

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Speaker 2: you know, splitting touches with Melvin Gordon. So Hall kind

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Speaker 2: of reminds me of at where he won't need that

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Speaker 2: many touches to post value. So if he ends up

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Speaker 2: in the right spot, he definitely has high end RB

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Speaker 2: two upside. Whereas keV Walker, you know, he's not a

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Speaker 2: great pass catching back. He definitely needs to work on

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Speaker 2: his pass protection, so he kind of needs a land

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Speaker 2: in the right spot a team that kind of needs

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Speaker 2: early down back, like I'm thinking like the Falcons, maybe

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Speaker 2: they need a Mike Davis kind of replacement or Houston

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Speaker 2: or maybe Miami. But I think Walker would need like

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Speaker 2: a certain fit, whereas wherever Breese Hall goes, he could

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Speaker 2: take it over the starting role right away. So that's

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Speaker 2: what I see the difference between the two. Where keV Walker,

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Speaker 2: he probably depends on the landing spot more than Breese Hall,

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Speaker 2: so that that will be an interesting thing to watch.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and maybe I shouldn't have compared him to Etn

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Speaker 1: because right Etn is a great pass catcher and Walker

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Speaker 1: is not. I want to make that clear. I just

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Speaker 1: met in terms of like the workloads. Whereas Harris last

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Speaker 1: year was like we knew he was going to be

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Speaker 1: that bell cow, and Etn you knew he was going

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Speaker 1: to be more of a compliment. It's just that Walker

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Speaker 1: would have to be a different kind of compliment team

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Speaker 1: career catches. You mentioned the pass protection issues, but interestingly enough,

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Speaker 1: Hall is plus one forty five to go in round one,

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Speaker 1: So to your point, no running backs are likely to

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Speaker 1: go in round one, but Walker's plus three hundred, so

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Speaker 1: Walker about a twenty five percent chance, whereas Hall closer

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Speaker 1: to a forty percent chance according to the Vegas odds.

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Speaker 1: So Hall is kind of that favorite for that number

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Speaker 1: one running back slot five hundred and ninety touches over

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Speaker 1: the past two years. So you know, I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: that would be interesting if he went to Buffalo because

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Speaker 1: as good as Singletary was, you know, Hall could probably

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Speaker 1: also kind of get that Singletary role at some point

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Speaker 1: because Singletary is that they've never committed to him for

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Speaker 1: like more than a half season in Buffalo. It's like

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Speaker 1: it's like it's like either at the beginning of the

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Speaker 1: year at the end of the year they seem to

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Speaker 1: figure out that they need to commit to him, but

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Speaker 1: they've never done it over a full year. Now, you

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Speaker 1: know that, you know, somebody who's making these lines seems

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Speaker 1: to think that Buffalo is in the market for a

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Speaker 1: running back early on, So you know, Singletary is probably

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Speaker 1: also good to kind of not overdraft him if you're

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Speaker 1: you know, drafted ally best ball and whatnot, especially leading

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Speaker 1: up to the draft until we know what's going on there.

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Speaker 1: Hall is a RB twenty two one underdog right now,

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Speaker 1: by the way, and Walker's the RB thirty So you're

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Speaker 1: not really getting any discount as far as like, oh,

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Speaker 1: these guys have upside, like they're already kind of be

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Speaker 1: a drafted where you would expect given what their draft

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Speaker 1: pedigree is going to be.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you know, if if Haul ends up

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Speaker 2: in Buffalo, he would be a very valuable like handcuff,

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Speaker 2: like a Javante Williams last year. Or remember when Jonathan

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Speaker 2: Taylor was drafted, you know, we thought he was going

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Speaker 2: to compete with Marlon Mackmi. So like, if Briestall goes somewhere,

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Speaker 2: like his draft value might plummet a bit, but he

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Speaker 2: still has that upside. So yeah, landing on the Bills

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Speaker 2: would be interesting for fantasy because I'd still value him,

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Speaker 2: but his yeah, his ADP might drop to like thirty,

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Speaker 2: just because Singletary would be the lead back at least

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Speaker 2: to start. But like you said that, the Bills they've

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Speaker 2: been kind of tricky with running backs and fantasy, so

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Speaker 2: I would kind of like that if Breestall goes there.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know if it's tricky. It's

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Speaker 1: just that Zach Moss was supposed to be good and

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Speaker 1: he just wasn't.

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Speaker 2: Also, also, Josh Allen's their best running run back, so

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Speaker 2: that complicates things all.

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Speaker 1: Right, So then we got all these other guys, and

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Speaker 1: to me, it's it's kind of hard for me to

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Speaker 1: differentiate between them at this point. I mean, they have

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Speaker 1: different skill sets, so I guess that's a place to start.

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Speaker 1: But I mean, you talk about guys like Isaiah Spiller,

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Speaker 1: James Cook, Zamir White, Brian Robinson, Tywer, Algier, Kyron Williams,

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Speaker 1: Rashad White, there's a few others. I'm not even gonna

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Speaker 1: name all of them because there's like twelve or thirteen

379
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Speaker 1: of them. But you know, any anybody stick out to

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Speaker 1: you is maybe somebody that that could kind of climb

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Speaker 1: the board here. They're all going on underdog. Isaiah Spiller

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Speaker 1: is actually the next one running back thirty four, then

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Speaker 1: Williams at forty one, Rashad White at forty six, Robinson

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Speaker 1: fifty three, and Algiear at fifty five. Any any of

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Speaker 1: those backs kind of catch your eye or you know,

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Speaker 1: I would they catch your eye if they went to

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Speaker 1: a certain team.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Spiller is a guy I'm kind of

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Speaker 2: keeping an eye on because he had a really bad

390
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Speaker 2: combine his his draft Scott, his draft stock probably took

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Speaker 2: a hit, but he has the potential to be a

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Speaker 2: three down work course back. So we'll be like if

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Speaker 2: an NFL team decides to spend a second or third

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Speaker 2: round pick on him, that means that they're comfortable, you know,

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Speaker 2: with his combine and everything, and they think that he

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Speaker 2: can be good, So his draft stock will be everything.

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Speaker 1: Same thing with Landing Spot.

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Speaker 2: So Spiller is probably the guy with the most potential

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Speaker 2: in this tier, but certainly, you know, he has a

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Speaker 2: low four because there are some concerns there. You know,

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of guys that are going to be

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Speaker 2: like good pass catching backs right out of the gate,

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Speaker 2: like Karen Williams, James Cook certainly, and maybe Tyler Baddy

404
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Speaker 2: further down the list. So again, I don't know if

405
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Speaker 2: these guys will be guys I'm drafting this year. But

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Speaker 2: if they go to a team that we already think

407
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Speaker 2: has an established third down back, you know that's going

408
00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:07,719
Speaker 2: to impact them a lot because these guys are you know,

409
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Speaker 2: like a James White Nikeim Hines type of role. So

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Speaker 2: be interesting to see where those guys go to. Like,

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Speaker 2: you know, if the Steelers draft a guy like this,

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Speaker 2: maybe it means that they're going to kind of limit

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Speaker 2: Najie Harris on passing downs or something like that.

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying that.

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Speaker 2: The Steelers are gonna draft on these guys, but just

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Speaker 2: these are kind of guys are they're going to impact

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Speaker 2: the starting running back that is there right now. And

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Speaker 2: then you have these bigger backs like Brian Robinson or

419
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Speaker 2: Tya Algier where it's all about landing spot for them.

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Speaker 2: They're the kind of guys they're just two down grinders.

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Speaker 2: So if they go to a team like the Charters,

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Speaker 2: maybe who you know, Joshua Kelly, Larry Rountree just have

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Speaker 2: been cutting it. They just let go of Justin Jackson,

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Speaker 2: so they could have a role in that offense right

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Speaker 2: out of the gate, because you know they try to

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Speaker 2: spell AuSn Neckler a bit, or even the Eagles looking

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Speaker 2: for Jordan Howard type replacement. But those guys, it definitely

428
00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 2: depends on landing spot because they're kind of a limited role.

429
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 2: But all of these guys, like you said, it's a

430
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,080
Speaker 2: massive tier. I think there's like nine ten running backs

431
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:11,480
Speaker 2: I have in this tier too. It all depends on

432
00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:14,919
Speaker 2: landing spot for where their ultimate fancy value is going

433
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:15,080
Speaker 2: to be.

434
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 1: In my opinion, yeah, because again you know it's it's

435
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 1: it's and it's not just landing spot. It's a landing

436
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 1: spot and how early they're taken, because you know, it's

437
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,439
Speaker 1: just been round it in and of itself has just

438
00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 1: been so predictive of usage and of you know, production.

439
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:33,440
Speaker 1: You know, it's kind of we know, running backs, there's

440
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:35,600
Speaker 1: not a lot of wiggle room when it comes to efficiency.

441
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 1: You know, most guys are going to project right around

442
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 1: four yards to carry a little more. So you know,

443
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,520
Speaker 1: it's just about that drop off round to round a round.

444
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 1: So whoever sneaks into around you know two or you

445
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 1: know three, those are the guys you're gonna want to target,

446
00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 1: you know, because those are the teams that are going

447
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:54,159
Speaker 1: to kind of let you know, hey, we're looking to

448
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 1: to kind of diversify.

449
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 2: Unless it's the forty nine ers drafting, then you can

450
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,360
Speaker 2: throw a draft capital at the window because it doesn't matter.

451
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:03,159
Speaker 1: Right, yeah we have I mean, hey, hey they might

452
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 1: eat it. We're running back to replace Deebo Samuel, so

453
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 1: oh yeah, yeah, you know, I think Tampa Bay would

454
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,399
Speaker 1: be a good spot for a guy like Spiller. You know,

455
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:17,439
Speaker 1: he's a gap scheme guy. They run a gap scheme.

456
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:19,120
Speaker 1: You know, he's patient. I think you know, he would

457
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 1: still be the backup to four now obviously, but I

458
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 1: think down the line, you know, maybe Dynasty something like that.

459
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 1: I think, you know, I think he would get a shot.

460
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 1: And maybe Robinson. I think I would like to see

461
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 1: a guy like him maybe go to Buffalo. Right, so

462
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 1: then Singletary can still be the lead back. Robinson. You

463
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 1: know a lot of people think he's a top short

464
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,440
Speaker 1: yardage back in the class six two, two, twenty five,

465
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 1: four five.

466
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 2: So yeah, he would be the Zach Moss replacement, right sure.

467
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:49,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, all right. Let's jump to another fun one

468
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:55,119
Speaker 1: wide receiver. And this is another position where, first of all,

469
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 1: it's probably the most important fantasy position at this point,

470
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,199
Speaker 1: but it's also another one where where you get drafted

471
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 1: in terms of not just the landing spot, but the

472
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:07,920
Speaker 1: round plays a big factor still. Round one wide receivers

473
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 1: over the last ten years six point one targets per game,

474
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,159
Speaker 1: forty three percent have averaged double digit PPR points as

475
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:18,360
Speaker 1: a rookie. When you go to round two now you're

476
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:21,480
Speaker 1: down to four point four targets per game and just

477
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 1: twenty eight percent have averaged double digit PPR points over

478
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 1: the last decade. When you go down a round three

479
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,120
Speaker 1: now you're just under three targets a game and only

480
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:33,760
Speaker 1: sixteen percent are averaging double digit PPR points. And then

481
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 1: in Day three, rounds four through seven, you're at about

482
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 1: two targets per game and four percent you're under five

483
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 1: percent in terms of the double digit PPR production. So

484
00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 1: it's just you have to get really lucky with you know,

485
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 1: kind of matching an undervalue talent with an opening in

486
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,120
Speaker 1: terms of a lot of targets and routes to be run.

487
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,399
Speaker 1: So I think you know that those these guys are

488
00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 1: going round one and there could be you know, five

489
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,640
Speaker 1: to six, should be at least four, five could even

490
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 1: be six round one, So you know, let's let's talk

491
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:06,479
Speaker 1: about kind of this this top tier of players. It's uh,

492
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 1: you know, Jameis and Williams out of Alabama trailing Burke's

493
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: out of Arkansas, Chris Alave from Ohio State, Drake London

494
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 1: from USC and then Garrett Wilson might be the most

495
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 1: intriguing from Ohio State. His over under for pick. Him

496
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:26,120
Speaker 1: and London are both at ten point five in terms

497
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 1: of the the draft spot over under. So I guess

498
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:31,679
Speaker 1: I'll start with them. What do you think where do

499
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:33,920
Speaker 1: you think those guys end up going and who would

500
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 1: be the best fit.

501
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I think, you know, Garrett Wilson, it looks

502
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,200
Speaker 2: like he's likely to go the Falcons. I haven't seen

503
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 2: odds on it, but you know, he certainly has the

504
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 2: highest floor in this you know, top tier, I think,

505
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 2: and Dame Bruber at the Athletic compareson to CD Lamb,

506
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 2: and I can kind of see that, and you know,

507
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:55,239
Speaker 2: I love Ceede Lamb, so I think it's also a

508
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 2: good fit. You know, if Garrett Wilson goes to the Falcons,

509
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,280
Speaker 2: it would kind of remind me of aman Ross Saint

510
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 2: Brown going to the Lions last year. I mean, it

511
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:07,159
Speaker 2: was a wide open, wide receiver room. They have a

512
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 2: good pass catching back in Cordell Patterson, Deandrew Swift and Detroit,

513
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:14,399
Speaker 2: a great tight end Kyle Pitts in Atlanta, PJ Hawkinson

514
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 2: and Detroit, and then he kind of like a mediocre quarterback,

515
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 2: a transition quarterback. So Garrett Wilson, he could, you know,

516
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 2: see eight plus targets a game. That's all we're looking

517
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 2: for from a rookie. So he's he's definitely exciting. I

518
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,399
Speaker 2: think if he ends up in Atlanta, that means he

519
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:33,360
Speaker 2: got drafted very early and they intend to use them

520
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:36,479
Speaker 2: as the number one ride receiver. So I think, you know,

521
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 2: Garret Wilson is a guy I'm very interested in heading

522
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 2: into twenty twenty two.

523
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:41,639
Speaker 1: And then Drake Lennon.

524
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 2: It seems likely that he's going to go to the Jets,

525
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 2: So that's that's very good news for Zach Wilson. He

526
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 2: could have Drake Lennon, Elijah Moore, and Corey Davis. It's

527
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 2: hard to complain about that trio. But Drake Lennon has

528
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 2: a ton of people Comparing to Mike Evans. I could

529
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:00,719
Speaker 2: see that he's a big body receiver, not fast by

530
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 2: any means, but could be a you know, a deep threat,

531
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 2: a red zone kind of guy, and those are traits

532
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 2: that we look for in fancy. So he could have

533
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,959
Speaker 2: touchdown production. But in the end he's getting Zach Wilson

534
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 2: improven here two or else. It could be very tough

535
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:16,880
Speaker 2: for London, but again he could make things easier for Wilson.

536
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:19,959
Speaker 2: So those are certainly the top two guys. But this

537
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 2: is a very deep wide receiver class, so any one

538
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 2: of these guys in the top tier could have a

539
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 2: good landing spot and you know, push wide receiver two

540
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 2: value this year.

541
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Wilson to the Falcon that that's, like

542
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 1: you said, that's a that sticks out to me is

543
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 1: a great fit. I mean he's like a Z slot

544
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 1: slot guy. A lot of people think he's the best

545
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 1: separator in the class. Yes, he needs to get a

546
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:44,120
Speaker 1: little bit stronger, but ran at four to three eight

547
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 1: at six feet one eighty three, the Falcons have all

548
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 1: of the targets you know, up for grabs like run

549
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:54,479
Speaker 1: into the Jets. I mean, yes, the Jets aren't like

550
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:56,119
Speaker 1: you know, they'll probably be better at tight end this

551
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 1: year than they were last year, but more in Corey.

552
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 1: They are no slouches. So I just worry that London

553
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 1: doesn't have that same year one target upside unless he's

554
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 1: just Mike Evans, you know what I mean right off

555
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,119
Speaker 1: the bat. And even so, it's like I feel like

556
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 1: receivers like London like that, Like I don't know, it

557
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:16,640
Speaker 1: just doesn't seem as likely for them to have these

558
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 1: like monster year ones as a guy as like a

559
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:24,639
Speaker 1: separator quicker guy. So you know, I would not like

560
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:26,919
Speaker 1: it's a good fit for the Jets to get Drake London,

561
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 1: but in fantasy it wouldn't be my favorite, Like I

562
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:34,640
Speaker 1: think whoever goes to the Falcons, like that's the optimal winnings,

563
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 1: fide receiver landings. But like like they're the lions of

564
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 1: this year. Like what kind of like you said, like

565
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 1: it's just wide open. They didn't do anything in free

566
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:44,160
Speaker 1: agency really, you know, to to kind of shore that up.

567
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:47,640
Speaker 1: So they gotta start young guys from the jump, and

568
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 1: they still will have another player and Kyle Pitts who

569
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 1: can be the defense's number one priority at least for now.

570
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 1: So like the Falcons are just a perfect landing spot.

571
00:27:56,800 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 1: Like whatever wide receiver you see go the Falcons like that.

572
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 2: That's my advice. There are two really good landing spots

573
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:09,920
Speaker 2: later on. You know, both Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes

574
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:13,920
Speaker 2: just lost their top wide receivers. So I'm very interested

575
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 2: to see who or where, Like you know, trail In

576
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 2: Burks going to Green Bay or Jamis Williams going to

577
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 2: Kansas City would be very intriguing. Now, Jamis and Williams,

578
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:28,159
Speaker 2: he towards a cl very late in this, you know,

579
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 2: in the playoffs, so I don't know when he'll be

580
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 2: able to play, So he's sort of a longer term investment.

581
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 2: But if he goes to the Chiefs, you know, like

582
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 2: he would be the Tyreek Kill kind of replacement. So

583
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 2: he probably has the highest upside of the rest of

584
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 2: this top tier. And you know, what do you think

585
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 2: about trailing Burks because he has you know, Deebo Samuel upside,

586
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 2: but there are some concerns with him. But you know,

587
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 2: where do you think about trail and Burks right now?

588
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I feel like he's you know when

589
00:28:59,920 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 1: I when I look at him, just like where he's

590
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 1: kind of projected to go. I feel like Green Bay

591
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 1: makes some sense for him, you know, like he's over

592
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 1: under his twenty three five he is minus six fifty

593
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 1: to go in round one, so it's essentially he's projected

594
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 1: to go on the back half a round one, but

595
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 1: definitely in the back half of round one. You know, six'

596
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 1: two is about two twenty to twenty. Five forty was

597
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 1: about a four four point five to. Five so he's a,

598
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 1: size you, know size somewhat speed, guy you, know not

599
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 1: a great necessary route runner, yet but you, KNOW i

600
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 1: think a team Like New orleans Or Green BAY i

601
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,560
Speaker 1: think would be in the market for. Him BUT i

602
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 1: think he ends up going To Green. Bay Maybe Kansas.

603
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 1: CITY i mean it, depends like do they want what

604
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 1: Is Kansas city want? Now because they do have players

605
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: like on the roster that they can start at different

606
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 1: spots Like. Hardman. HARDMAN a lot of people thought could

607
00:29:57,600 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 1: be kind of like That Tyreek hill. Roll they have,

608
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 1: envy yes to be like a deep, threat. Yeh juju

609
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 1: is like the underneath. Guy you still Have. Kelsey SO

610
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 1: i feel Like Kansas city's a little bit more wide

611
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:09,719
Speaker 1: open in terms of the type of player that they

612
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 1: could draft that wide. Receiver but Also Kansas city just

613
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:15,960
Speaker 1: has a lot more competition for. Targets doesn't seem like,

614
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 1: it but they did just GIVE mvs a, Contract they

615
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 1: Gave juju a, Contract they Got kelsey's getting a, hundred you,

616
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 1: know forty fifty odd targets if he stays. Healthy SO

617
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 1: i like Green bay is really What I'M i would

618
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 1: hope That burks goes or really any of these wide

619
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 1: receivers on the back. END i think a lave to

620
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 1: The saints is probably the one everyone's been talking. About

621
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 1: LIKE i like that for The saints actually Because Michael

622
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 1: thomas gonna be that number, one but like the number

623
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 1: two in The saints he's good and he's a you,

624
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 1: know good separator route, runner which A lave. Is he

625
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 1: could like it could be like a very concentrated like

626
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 1: one two punch In New. Orleans and you, know they

627
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 1: probably passed more than they did last. YEAR i mean

628
00:30:56,920 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 1: last year they just completely hit the, quarterback which is you,

629
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 1: know it's just like we're. Regrested the, mean, LIKE i,

630
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 1: Know winston's back and but you, know no taste, them

631
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 1: so you probably throw a little more.

632
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 2: Regardless, yeah that'll Help. Winston being healthy all season would

633
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 2: help a guy Like. OLAVE i think that he would

634
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:16,719
Speaker 2: kind of replace sort of The Manny sanders role right

635
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 2: where you have Like Michael thomas And Manny, sanders because,

636
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 2: yeah their depth chart last, year especially If Mike thomas

637
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 2: hurt all last.

638
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 1: Year excuse, Me Michael, Thomas, Michael, yeah you know what

639
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 1: not not the special team on, society.

640
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 2: But, yeah guys Like, Callaway trey Pont, Smith Deontay, harris

641
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 2: like they would get pushed down the pecking. Order so,

642
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 2: Yeah elave to The, SAINTS i think is the most

643
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 2: likely thing right, now AND i think that'd be a

644
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 2: good fit for.

645
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 1: Him there are over a half dozen teams that At.

646
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 1: DraftKings they are their odds to draft a. Position, first

647
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 1: wide receiver is that you know position with the shortest

648
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 1: Odds Green bay at minus one sixty, Five atlanta plus one,

649
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:02,959
Speaker 1: Ten Kansas city plus one, Twenty washington plus one twenty,

650
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 1: Five San francisco interesting plus one eighty, Five, Philly arizona And.

651
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 1: Chico philly And arizona at plus two twenty, five and

652
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 1: Then chicago at plus two to. Fifty cleveland And india

653
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 1: are also at plus two. Fifty but wide receivers the

654
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 1: second most likely you know position in terms of the.

655
00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 1: Odds so there are a lot of you, know there

656
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 1: could be a big run on wide, receivers and again

657
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 1: you know the over unders five and a. Half you

658
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 1: know there's five that are probably definitely going. Uh and

659
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 1: then you, know but, whoever you know that sixth, guy

660
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 1: whether It's Sky, Moore John dotson or Or, pickings whoever

661
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 1: it might, Be Christian, Watson Jalen, Tolbert whoever's kind of

662
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 1: if one of those players sneaks into round, one that

663
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,959
Speaker 1: that would be worth a lot in terms of, fantasy because,

664
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:53,480
Speaker 1: again you, know round one picks six point one targets

665
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 1: a game forty three percent double DIGIT ppr rate in

666
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 1: year one and then you drop to four point four

667
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 1: and twenty eight percent in round. Two so just whoever

668
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:04,959
Speaker 1: sneaks into, that you, know those last few picks around,

669
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 1: one if it does, HAPPEN i think with the, major

670
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 1: who do you like in that in that second tier

671
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 1: amongst you, Know more And pickens And dots and in those.

672
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 2: Guys, yeah so there's there's a lot of like slot type.

673
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 2: Guys SO i think that the one guy that probably

674
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 2: has the most upside Is. Pickens and you, know the

675
00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 2: concern with him is he's recovering from AN acl tear last.

676
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 2: Year he didn't return until like the last One final.

677
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 2: FOUR i think he had like three games but he barely.

678
00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 2: Played it was, one but he Barely he had like

679
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 2: one catch in the last three. Games so we don't,

680
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 2: know you, know how he developed or if He's i'm you,

681
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 2: know at this point in, time A cl tears aren't

682
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 2: career threatening or anything like, that so we just didn't

683
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 2: get to see where he was in his, DEVELOPMENT i

684
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 2: should say last. Year SO i think if if AN

685
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:52,680
Speaker 2: nfl team takes him in the first, round, like it

686
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 2: means that they're confident in their, Evaluation so that's gonna

687
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 2: boost his you, know projection of my. Model SO i

688
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 2: Think pickens has the highest. Upside you, know he could

689
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 2: be like A Kinny gallity type when he was. Good

690
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 2: i'm The, lions you, know a good contested catch downfield

691
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 2: kind of. Guy so the landing spot and draft capital

692
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 2: is gonna be huge With, pickens and saying goes like

693
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:16,560
Speaker 2: he's way further down on the draft. Board But Justin

694
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 2: ross is a little bit similar where you, know he

695
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 2: had sort of a career threatening spinal injury after a

696
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 2: breakout freshman, season so we don't know where he is

697
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 2: in his. Development so you, know if a team takes

698
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,479
Speaker 2: a chance on him early, on like that's gonna be worth.

699
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:32,840
Speaker 2: Muttering but he's a guy not to sleep on just

700
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 2: because he does have a pretty high. Upside but he

701
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 2: might get drafted a little bit. Later but, again this second,

702
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 2: tier it all comes down to the landing. SPOT i,

703
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 2: mean these slot guys like Sky moore Or. Dotson you,

704
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 2: know just look at last year Or Rondell moore And

705
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 2: i'm all run State brown went to two different you

706
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 2: know situations and look look how that turned. Out so

707
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 2: these guys will probably, need you, know kind of like

708
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 2: available targets to hit the ground running as a rookie

709
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:04,880
Speaker 2: BECAUSE i don't think they're gonna win with you, know

710
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 2: touchdowns and that kind of, thing so they're gonna need that.

711
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:12,839
Speaker 2: Volume so landing spot's gonna be crucial for those types of. Guys, yeah, yeah,

712
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 2: yeah and.

713
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:15,320
Speaker 1: Pickings, yeah he came back for the rest regular season,

714
00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 1: game but then he they had three more games in the,

715
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,720
Speaker 1: postseason but he barely playing those. Games, yeah he got

716
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 1: five catches cross those. Games. Yees Sky moore is. INTERESTING

717
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 1: i kind of, like you, know like his skill, set

718
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 1: but like you, said it's, gonna you, know kind of

719
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 1: matter where he. Goes you, Know Green. BAY a lot

720
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 1: of people think they're gonna draft a couple of wide receivers.

721
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 1: Early but the thing, IS i don't. Know rogers was

722
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 1: at the game with The he was at The bucks

723
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,280
Speaker 1: game With Randall. Cobb SO i think they're they're still

724
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 1: they're still playing on starting starting job out there in the.

725
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 1: Slot so and they still have what's his, Name Mark

726
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:50,799
Speaker 1: rodgers is a good.

727
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 2: Backup, SEE i just can't see them drafting another slot

728
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:55,040
Speaker 2: guy after.

729
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,560
Speaker 1: That and Then Kansas city is kind of the same.

730
00:35:57,560 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 1: Thing it's, LIKE i, mean juju would you would think

731
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 1: would be in the plans in the, Slot SO i,

732
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,399
Speaker 1: don't you, know it's it's tough to kind of pay

733
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:07,840
Speaker 1: where these guys end up Up, ATLANTA i Mean atlanta

734
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 1: probably they could draft three receivers and start all three

735
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 1: at this. Point so, right it's just it's just that

736
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 1: who's good quarterback going to? Be that's that's really the question.

737
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 1: Mark BUT i think whoever goes To, atlanta whoever goes

738
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:25,799
Speaker 1: in that in a second, round and whoever sneaks into

739
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 1: the first really want to monitor those. Guys but that

740
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:36,359
Speaker 1: top five Of, Burk's, Wilson, London, olave And. Williams that's

741
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 1: that's kind of those are gonna be your best bets

742
00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 1: in terms of year one production in. Fantasy tight end

743
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 1: tight ends pretty. QUICK i mean there's one GUY i

744
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 1: think we should talk, about and It's trade, McBride and

745
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,719
Speaker 1: he probably won't even go in round, one you, know

746
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,760
Speaker 1: round may not even going around. Two denver looks like

747
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:56,320
Speaker 1: like a lot of people have him mocked To, Denver

748
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,160
Speaker 1: so that's not good for our, Guy. Albert, oh Maybe

749
00:36:59,160 --> 00:37:03,440
Speaker 1: denver continues to incorporate the two tight end sets at

750
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 1: a higher rate than we, think but they. Are you,

751
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 1: know no team is really likely to draft a tight

752
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:12,279
Speaker 1: end first or even, second But denver is the top

753
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 1: odds at nine to, one so you can just kind

754
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:17,560
Speaker 1: of extrapoate that to, mean you, know they're most likely

755
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:21,800
Speaker 1: to draft a tight end at some point Early Tampa

756
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 1: bay ten to, one and Then chicago at fifteen to,

757
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 1: One cleveland at eight to eighteen to, One cincinnati and

758
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 1: The colts at twenty five to. One SO i Mean

759
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 1: Tampa bay is very intriguing for trade mc bride all

760
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 1: around guy at A csu got Starboy Peter. Jennings BUT

761
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 1: i Mean Tampa bay would be pretty, intriguing probably more

762
00:37:42,560 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 1: so Than, denver just because In denver be just another,

763
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:46,280
Speaker 1: committee right.

764
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, Yeah SO i mean, overall this is a pretty deep.

765
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:54,799
Speaker 2: Class there's No Kyle pitt, obviously and tight ends for

766
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 2: fancy you, know it usually takes two or three years

767
00:37:57,120 --> 00:37:58,840
Speaker 2: for them to even break, out so we're really not

768
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:04,399
Speaker 2: targeting rookies in. Fantasy BUT i think if McBride were

769
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 2: to go To Tampa, bay THEN i would be all

770
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 2: in because if like let's, Say rob If gronk doesn't

771
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 2: come back this. Year they just got rid Of Oj.

772
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:14,799
Speaker 2: Howard he would be competing With Cam.

773
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 1: Braid.

774
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:18,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, so And Tom brady's coming, Back SO i think

775
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 2: that'd be very. Appealing if If gronk retires or stays

776
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:26,279
Speaker 2: retired and McBride goes To Tampa, bay that's gonna be you,

777
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:29,320
Speaker 2: know the perfect storm where he could push you, know

778
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:32,800
Speaker 2: high end tight end two. Value other than, that especially after,

779
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:35,279
Speaker 2: him it all comes down a landing. Spot like you,

780
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 2: said there are some rooms Like, denver there's certainly room

781
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:42,239
Speaker 2: for you, know tight end two. There, CHICAGO i don't

782
00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:43,640
Speaker 2: know if that'd be a good landing spot. There you

783
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 2: Have Cole, comet you, know some guy replaced The Jimmy

784
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 2: gramm role occasional touchdown To Vulture. Comet but you, know

785
00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:54,759
Speaker 2: teams Like, Cleveland, Cincy, INDY i don't know if there's

786
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 2: room for rookie to really hit the ground running. There

787
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 2: So i'll just be looking for whoever the Or bucks.

788
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:02,440
Speaker 2: Draft that's Who i'm going to be interested.

789
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:05,919
Speaker 1: In, yeah and just to put some numbers on why

790
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 1: we probably don't have to worry about, this especially in

791
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:12,480
Speaker 1: Redraft round one tight. Ends over the past ten, years

792
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 1: there's only been nine of, them but they've averaged four

793
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 1: and a half targets per. Game only twenty two percent

794
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:21,319
Speaker 1: of them have averaged double DIGIT ppr. Points when you

795
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 1: drop to and, again there's almost certainly going to be

796
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 1: no tight end taking in round one this Year round,

797
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:29,440
Speaker 1: two which probably best case scenario for a guy like.

798
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:33,799
Speaker 1: McBride over the last ten, seasons there's been sixteen of

799
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 1: them drafted tight ends in round, two two point eight

800
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 1: targets per. Game none of them have averaged double DIGIT ppr.

801
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 1: Points and then round, three so another you, know also

802
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:45,359
Speaker 1: in day, two now you're down to two targets per.

803
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 1: Game The Jordan reed was the one exception there to

804
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 1: get to double DIGIT ppr. Points so you're talking about

805
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 1: date on day. Two one of forty one have given

806
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 1: you double DIGIT ppr points and you're averaging, about you,

807
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:01,399
Speaker 1: know two and a half, targets two to three targets per,

808
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:03,799
Speaker 1: game and that's you, know that's like it's just a

809
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 1: tough position in year. One How pits is such the

810
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 1: exception and even he you, know it was kind of,

811
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 1: fun even because he didn't score touchdowns and.

812
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:13,920
Speaker 2: GAY i was gonna, Say Kyle, pitts Literally god's gift

813
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 2: to tight. Ends you, know he had a really good

814
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 2: rookie season unless deny he had over one thousand yards,

815
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:22,760
Speaker 2: receiving but, yeah he only scored one. Touchdown so even

816
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:25,360
Speaker 2: he has some growing pains and certainly you, KNOW i

817
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:28,880
Speaker 2: expect a big jump in touchdowns this. Year but it

818
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:31,600
Speaker 2: just goes to show that rookie tight ends are very

819
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:33,400
Speaker 2: hard to. Trust they have to be in like the

820
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:37,319
Speaker 2: perfect situation to hit as a. Rookie AND i guess

821
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 2: we can close it with this.

822
00:40:38,640 --> 00:40:43,240
Speaker 1: Stat trade McBride last year AT csu thirty seven percent

823
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 1: of the yardage ninety one catches one one hundred and

824
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:50,359
Speaker 1: twenty five. Yards guess how many touchdowns the same As

825
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 1: Kyle pitts, right. Yep. One so just not not a

826
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 1: fun tight end. Class he's going his tight end twenty

827
00:40:57,200 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 1: in in at underdog right now in pre draft best,

828
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 1: ball uh probably a probably a best case, scenario and

829
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:06,799
Speaker 1: unless he goes to LIKE i would, say even The,

830
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:08,440
Speaker 1: bucks because even if he's on The, broncos he could

831
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 1: still play like as the number two To alberto in year,

832
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:14,319
Speaker 1: One SO i would say The bucks are really that

833
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 1: team where If gronk, Retires, bride perhaps you know he

834
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:20,359
Speaker 1: could step in right, away and you know he's getting

835
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:22,719
Speaker 1: pasted From, Brady so that's the, yeah just watch for

836
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:25,840
Speaker 1: McBride to go To Tampa. Bay is the the actionable advice,

837
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:28,319
Speaker 1: here all. Right that is going to wrap it up

838
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:32,360
Speaker 1: for us here with this pre draft edition of The

839
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:35,799
Speaker 1: Fantasy Flex. Podcast be sure to check out all of

840
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 1: our draft content at actionnetwork dot. Com be sure to

841
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:43,080
Speaker 1: download the, free award Winning Action network. App you can

842
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:45,920
Speaker 1: Follow sean at The Underscore Odds maker and meet At Chris.

843
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 1: Raybond you can find us at the sum handles On.

844
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:51,439
Speaker 1: Twitter if you like the, pod please leave a five

845
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 1: star rating and review On apple Or spotify and we

846
00:41:56,160 --> 00:42:00,360
Speaker 1: will be. Back until, then let's get this money To

847
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:02,479
Speaker 1: king