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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. It is me Joey Pay Joe Pisapia and this,

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Speaker 1: of course is the Saturday NFL Wildcard Preview show and

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Speaker 1: we're always brought to you by BETMGM, the King of sportsbooks.

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Speaker 1: Download that bet MGM app right now and get your

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Speaker 1: wagering on and today to help me break down the

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Speaker 1: Saturday games, Matthew Friedman, our own head of content, our

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Speaker 1: man about town, always looking to make things better, and

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Speaker 1: of course one of my favorite people in the industry.

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Speaker 1: You know him from his work at Number Fire and

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Speaker 1: at Vanduel. Jim Satis everybody. You can follow him on

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Speaker 1: the Twitter machine at Jim Sannis and gentlemen, we've got

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Speaker 1: a pretty good Saturday slate of football here. The Wildcard

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Speaker 1: Slay kicks off on Saturday afternoon NFC West Showdown between

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Speaker 1: the second seed of forty nine ers nine and a

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Speaker 1: half point favorites that numbers move from ten to nine

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Speaker 1: and a half against the Seattle Seahawks the seventh seed,

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Speaker 1: and then the later game, the night game, you're going

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Speaker 1: to get the fourth seed of Jaguars, who are now

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Speaker 1: two and a half point underdogs at home, hosting the

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Speaker 1: Chargers first playoff game ever for Trevor Lawrence and for

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Speaker 1: just and Herbert. So exciting time some fresh blood in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs in the NFL. Before we get into these

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Speaker 1: games and break them down, Jim, a little bit of

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Speaker 1: line movement in both of these games in the last

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours before we dig into them individually. What

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Speaker 1: does that tell you?

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Speaker 2: Uh, it tells me. People are higher than on Seattle

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Speaker 2: than I thought they'd be. I kind of thought this

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Speaker 2: is one that would hang SETI a ten, and it's

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Speaker 2: back at ten. I FanDuel Sports pick at least it's

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Speaker 2: minus one eighteen on that ten though, so it's basically

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Speaker 2: nine and a half there. It got nine and a

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Speaker 2: half very briefly, then snap back to ten, which says

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Speaker 2: to me, it's probably gonna stay where it is right now.

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Speaker 2: I think the more interesting thing here is the money line.

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Speaker 2: It was about four to twenty this morning, now three

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Speaker 2: eighty five, So you're actually getting a bit of interest

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Speaker 2: in Seattle, which I don't think is wrong. I think

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Speaker 2: that this is a pretty this is a pretty decent

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Speaker 2: number for them. I've got Seattle's with odds that twenty

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Speaker 2: two point four percent, so pretty align with the market

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Speaker 2: a little bit above. So I actually think the move

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Speaker 2: towards three eighty five is fair. So I think that's

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Speaker 2: fair as far as the Jags Chargers game goes, I

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Speaker 2: think it's hopefully the market getting things right because I

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Speaker 2: took the Jags money line when it was plus one

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Speaker 2: oh four, So seeing at minus one oh four right now,

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Speaker 2: I'm like, Okay, tentative optimism is the way I want

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Speaker 2: to say it. I think the Jags are really fun

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Speaker 2: in this game. I think that game's gonna be a

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Speaker 2: blast regardless of whether I win my bets. So I

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Speaker 2: feel pretty interested by the movement so far. And I

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Speaker 2: think given that that's where my numbers are for both

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Speaker 2: the Jags and the Seahawks, I think that is Actually

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Speaker 2: I'm just confirmation biased, don't it feels good to see

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Speaker 2: a slight movement that direction.

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Speaker 1: Look, if there's anything we all love, it's a little

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Speaker 1: confirmation podcast now and again we're allowed to feel good

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Speaker 1: about things. Friedman, You know some people might say that,

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Speaker 1: well halfpoint here there doesn't make a difference, but that's

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Speaker 1: not the case, especially when you work with some of

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Speaker 1: the models and I know you work with, So what

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Speaker 1: are your thoughts here about this line movement in each

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Speaker 1: of these games before we dive a little deeper into

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Speaker 1: the money lines and into the numbers.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, especially at this point in the season, once we have,

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Speaker 3: you know, sixteen seventeen games worth of data, a half

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Speaker 3: point means much more than I think it does earlier

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Speaker 3: in the year. But I think that these numbers are

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Speaker 3: moving in the correct direction. I don't, for either of

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Speaker 3: these games, have a big edge projected for really either team,

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Speaker 3: but my numbers are leaning at this point a little

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Speaker 3: bit more towards Seattle. If the number is nine and

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Speaker 3: a half or ten, and I have this very close

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Speaker 3: to a pick them in the Chargers in Jags game,

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Speaker 3: And so that number opened actually at two and a

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Speaker 3: half and very quickly moved to one and a half

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Speaker 3: and then now fluctuating between the one and one and

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Speaker 3: a half that we see in the market. So I

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Speaker 3: think that line movement is correct, especially at this time

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Speaker 3: of the year. I think line movement tends to be

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Speaker 3: more accurate than not, and so I would say this

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Speaker 3: is the market becoming increasingly efficient. And given that there

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Speaker 3: are only six games this week instead of sixteen you know,

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Speaker 3: people earlier in the week are just starting to really

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Speaker 3: hone in on the game, and I think action that

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Speaker 3: we would maybe see on a Thursday, we're starting to

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Speaker 3: see on a Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: That's I think a very astute observation. Ere I agree,

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Speaker 1: So it happens. We also tend to overanalyze when we

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Speaker 1: have more time and less things to do, which is

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Speaker 1: another trap. So hopefully we'll avoid that. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: get into the four to thirty PM game Eastern time again.

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Speaker 1: One thirty on the West coast, you got the Seattle Seahawks,

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Speaker 1: who you know, pulled themselves up by the haunches after

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Speaker 1: having kind of a nose dive in the last month

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Speaker 1: of the season. Then kind of you know, right at

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Speaker 1: the ship at the very end, they're going to visit

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Speaker 1: the very hot San Francisco forty nine ers. So seven

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Speaker 1: meets to here to kick off Saturday afternoon. Now, the

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Speaker 1: Niners have won ten straight, including five in a row

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Speaker 1: with rookie quarterback Rock Party. At some point, I always

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Speaker 1: feel like in the playoffs, brock Party is going to

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Speaker 1: be called on to make a play, and that's when

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Speaker 1: I want to really try to evaluate what Rock Party

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Speaker 1: is going to be for the San Francisco time team

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Speaker 1: and whether or not that's going to lead them further

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Speaker 1: into the playoffs. Now, we have the spread right now,

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Speaker 1: which is nine and a half on the San francisc

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Speaker 1: go side here hosting Seattle, and we have forty three

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Speaker 1: and a half as the number. If you like Seattle

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Speaker 1: for the upset and the money line, you're getting a

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Speaker 1: really good number plus three seventy right now. I'm betting

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Speaker 1: pros that's the consensus number. So Jim, let's start with

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Speaker 1: you here in this one. What's the value of this

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Speaker 1: game here? What are you targeting in terms of the spread,

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Speaker 1: in terms of the over under. How do you see

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Speaker 1: San fran Seattle.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this is a game where you can

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Speaker 2: see it being a couple of different ways. You can

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Speaker 2: see Seattle winning. I think that's very fair. Given that

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Speaker 2: you know it's the NFL, A lot of weird stuff

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Speaker 2: can happen, and like you know, like Matthew is saying,

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Speaker 2: like my numbers do say that there's a bit of

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Speaker 2: value in Seattle in terms of potentially winning this game.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't want to take the points though, because you

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Speaker 2: can see a lot of ways as spirals, and if

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Speaker 2: I'm going to take on the potential for spiraling, I'd

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Speaker 2: rather take the money line, take that more volatile market.

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Speaker 2: It's a plus three eighty five at Fanduels. I think

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Speaker 2: that I'd rather just go that route, take the more

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Speaker 2: volatile market rather than the spread, because you can envision

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Speaker 2: it in your head. You can envision a Brock party

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Speaker 2: to George Kittle touchdown pass early on, and then Eli

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Speaker 2: Mitchell Christian McCaffrey grinding things out the entire rest of

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Speaker 2: the way, and it can be a snowball effect. Seattle

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Speaker 2: gets down, they just had a huge, high high emotion

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Speaker 2: game this past weekend. They get down, they can't rally.

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Speaker 2: So I don't want to deal with the points here. Personally,

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Speaker 2: I think that if you like Seattle, I would go

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Speaker 2: with the money line and said, obviously, scale your bets

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Speaker 2: to properly account for the fact that it's a low

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Speaker 2: probability outcome twenty two percent win odds for me. You

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Speaker 2: want to make sure your account of that. So I

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Speaker 2: think that if we're talking about the side, I'd rather

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Speaker 2: go with the money line here and take Seattle there.

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Speaker 2: I don't see any value in cens It's co minus

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Speaker 2: five hundred, I think that the if I am betting,

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Speaker 2: it'd be the.

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Speaker 1: Seattle money line.

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Speaker 2: As far as a total, it's at forty two and

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Speaker 2: a half at FanDuel, I think that's low. I've got

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Speaker 2: this at forty six point one right now. There is

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Speaker 2: some potential rain in this game out in Santa Clara,

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Speaker 2: which is worth monitoring, but the winds are low seven

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Speaker 2: miles per hour. That's not too bad, nothing to worry

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Speaker 2: about too much, and the rain doesn't appear to be overwhelming.

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Speaker 2: And again it kind of comes back to what I discussed.

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Speaker 2: You can see the forty nine ers moving ball pretty

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Speaker 2: well in this game, and you can see a scenario

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Speaker 2: where they are flirting with us over by themselves. So

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Speaker 2: I think, to me, the two best bets in the

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Speaker 2: scheme right now are Seattle money line and over forty

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Speaker 2: two and a half. In both those showings of value,

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Speaker 2: and you don't have to tell yourself too crazy of

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Speaker 2: a story to talk itself, at least for me into

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Speaker 2: either of those.

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Speaker 1: And great point to bringing up the return of Eli

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Speaker 1: Mitchell last week. Also his workload carving in a little

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Speaker 1: bit to what CMC usually does, maybe a little fresher

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Speaker 1: CMC for this round of the playoffs. That's certainly a

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Speaker 1: good thing, and also somebody else that they can grind

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Speaker 1: out clock if they do have a lead, that's huge,

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Speaker 1: and not spend Christian mcaffort too much if they are

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Speaker 1: in a situation too advance. So you kind of like

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Speaker 1: their potential going forward in these playoffs, Friedman, when you're

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Speaker 1: looking at the board, here, where do you see the value?

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Speaker 1: Once again just a recap, nine and a half is

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Speaker 1: the number forty three and a half the over under,

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Speaker 1: and the Seattle money line plus three seventy in the consensus.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I have this projective at nine point two five,

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Speaker 3: and so it's not enough for me to want to

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Speaker 3: bet on Seattle in the spot. And to Jim's point,

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Speaker 3: if I'm going to be taking a position here on

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Speaker 3: one of the teams, it probably would be the money line.

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Speaker 3: But I just I think we're probably close enough to

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Speaker 3: the market where I probably won't be doing that. And

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Speaker 3: you know, with all six of these games this week,

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Speaker 3: they are rematches, and you know, people talk about, especially

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Speaker 3: divisional opponents, it's really hard to beat a team three

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Speaker 3: three games within a year, like you know, maybe, but

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Speaker 3: the fact is we I don't know. I think this

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Speaker 3: line is right. It's it's a market where the Seahawks

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Speaker 3: against the spread, Pete Carroll going against Kyle Shane hand

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Speaker 3: their head to head record is six and six. Divisional

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Speaker 3: opponents tend to play tight, so I would think that

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Speaker 3: this number feels probably close to correct. But given the

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Speaker 3: chaos that we could see, Seattle would be the team.

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Speaker 3: I'd probably back on the money line. But I just

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Speaker 3: I don't want any part of it. I think this

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Speaker 3: is gonna be a kind of nasty game. And the

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Speaker 3: projections for the total, I have it forty four point six,

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Speaker 3: So like Jim, I am leaning towards the over there.

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Speaker 3: And you know, especially with this number, you know, bumping

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Speaker 3: down forty two and a half was forty three, So

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Speaker 3: forty two and a half forty three across the market,

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Speaker 3: I would be a little bit inclined to take the over.

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Speaker 3: The thing is, like my my lizard brain tends to

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Speaker 3: look at trends, and I just I know, like at

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Speaker 3: this point of the year, divisional games, those tend to

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Speaker 3: play towards the under. And then especially even if you're

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Speaker 3: not thinking of divisional opponents, but you're just thinking playoff football.

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Speaker 3: A little more money in the market, people tend to

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Speaker 3: bet the overs. Outdoor playoff games tend to hit the unders,

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Speaker 3: and so I would just see in a vacuum, how

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Speaker 3: okay Seattle's defense. I think it is not that good.

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Speaker 1: I can see how they allow.

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Speaker 3: It ton of points. But divisional matchup, outdoor game, the

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Speaker 3: weather isn't horrible, but it's it's not an indoor game,

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Speaker 3: and it's still a rookie quarterback in Brock Purty making

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Speaker 3: his first start, and so maybe that San Francisco offense

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Speaker 3: isn't quite as efficient as it has been to this point.

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Speaker 3: I'm probably just staying away, but I gotta say, Brock Party,

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Speaker 3: he has been incredibly impressive. And you know, to start

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Speaker 3: with the Garoppolo injury, I significantly downgraded the forty nine

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Speaker 3: ers from that spot.

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Speaker 1: Because too in all fairness, I had shares of the

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Speaker 1: forty nine ers that I had invested in as soon

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Speaker 1: as Garoppolo took over, I think at like six to

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Speaker 1: one to win the division whatever it is, and then

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Speaker 1: go on to you know, the Super Bowl, and I

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Speaker 1: was loving that investment, and then when Garoppolo got down,

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Speaker 1: I jumped the gun for sure. I'm sure like many

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Speaker 1: people and Okay, this is gonna get ugly real start.

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Speaker 1: But you mentioned brock Perty has been impressive. Do you

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Speaker 1: think now that he is up to the task though,

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Speaker 1: Friedman of let's say it is a tight game, let's

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Speaker 1: say it is playing to the under. Is he up

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Speaker 1: to the task or paying for what you've seen to

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Speaker 1: make that play? That makes a difference, because that is

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Speaker 1: the difference between regular season football, even against Indivision opponents,

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Speaker 1: and playoff football.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I'll just say I don't know, Like that's

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Speaker 3: that's I don't think any of us know.

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Speaker 1: And that's why I think you and Jim discussing the

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Speaker 1: money line is so fascinating. Jim, you mentioned that as well,

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Speaker 1: what you've seen out of Geno Smith, I'll turn the tables.

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Speaker 1: Do you think Geno Smith, for what you've seen out

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Speaker 1: of him all year? Who has been called on that

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Speaker 1: had no way? I mean brock Perty's expectations were low.

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Speaker 1: Gino Smith's might have been close this year, like they

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Speaker 1: were pretty they were pretty low. Yet he has put

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Speaker 1: himself in that conversation for comeback player of the Year.

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Speaker 1: He has put his team in the playoffs. Do you

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Speaker 1: think Gino can make that spot, because both of you

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Speaker 1: guys have mentioned that that moneyline number on Seattle and

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Speaker 1: if it's close, you know, eventually it comes down to

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Speaker 1: typically a quarterback making a play. Can Gino be that guy?

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Speaker 2: He kind of did it alrighty in that Races game,

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Speaker 2: and I think that that was like that game was

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Speaker 2: not a good game from Gino. He had that pretty

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Speaker 2: bad pick, right, He didn't play well, But I think

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Speaker 2: it was impressive that he stay focused and he still

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Speaker 2: confidence lay in that game. Because you'll a lot of

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Speaker 2: times see these like really fun runs for guys, well

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Speaker 2: they'll go on like a tear, and like Gino had

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Speaker 2: that at the beginning of the year and then something

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Speaker 2: goes wrong and it can kind of spiral. But he

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Speaker 2: kind of locked back in and was able to rally them. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: the Rams are a much in their current state, the

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Speaker 2: lesser defense than the forty nine ers, and that was

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Speaker 2: a game that was in Seattle. Rams had effectively nothing

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Speaker 2: to play for, whereas Gino had everything to play for,

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Speaker 2: so it shouldn't have been that close to a game.

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Speaker 2: But I think the fact that he was able to

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Speaker 2: close it out still use his legs of it, which

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Speaker 2: we hadn't seen a ton so far this year. I

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Speaker 2: think that was interesting. I think that that's something to

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Speaker 2: keep in mind for prop betting for this week is

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Speaker 2: you will often see quarterbacks run a lot more in

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Speaker 2: the postseason than regular season because everything's on the line.

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Speaker 2: And I think that could be intriguing for Gino because

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't be like I think that if I were Seattle,

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Speaker 2: i'd drop some you know, design quarterback runs for this game.

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Speaker 2: You don't look fast in that RAMS game. So I

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Speaker 2: think that I think he can live up to the task.

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Speaker 2: I think that it helps when he has guys like

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Speaker 2: DK Metcalf, Tyl Lockett's were talking about Dk Metcalf as

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Speaker 2: a veterans. We're all very old now, but like he's

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Speaker 2: been around for a long time. Locke, it's been around

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Speaker 2: for a super long time. I think that's all super beneficial.

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Speaker 2: Pete Carrolls sounds of experience. So I think that I

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Speaker 2: have faith in Gino as like a person, but also

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Speaker 2: I think the infrastructure around him is good enough to

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Speaker 2: give me some faith in.

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Speaker 1: Them as well.

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Speaker 3: Great points there thoughts, some thoughts on on Gino here

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Speaker 3: and you know, and thinking about the comparison to Brockberty.

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Speaker 3: Gino was like absolutely fantastic in the first half of

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Speaker 3: the season, and you know, weeks one through ten, seventeen touchdowns,

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Speaker 3: only four interceptions, over a seventy two percent completion percentage,

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Speaker 3: eight point three justin yards per attempt since the buye

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Speaker 3: And it's not like just like that clean of a split.

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Speaker 3: There have been other things to go into it, Tyler

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Speaker 3: Lockett being injured, but we have not seen Gino Smith

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Speaker 3: perform at nearly the same level. His completion percentage has

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Speaker 3: dropped down to sixty six percent, touchdown to interception ratio

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Speaker 3: thirteen to seven, six point nine adjusted yards per attempt.

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Speaker 3: Like he's been a he's been an above average it's

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Speaker 3: like slightly above average quarterback since the bye, but he

312
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Speaker 3: hasn't been like the earth shaker that he was to

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Speaker 3: start the year. And you know, brock Purty, he has

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Speaker 3: been absolutely amazing, like you know, like hall of fame,

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Speaker 3: like legendary type of like start of a career, right,

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Speaker 3: nine point nine adjusted yards per attempt in his five starts.

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Speaker 3: And so Joe you asked the question, like could brock

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Speaker 3: party do it if he's in that situation, you know,

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Speaker 3: like two minutes drive his team down the field. I

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Speaker 3: think a lot of what we have seen out of

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Speaker 3: brock Party to this point is a function of the

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Speaker 3: Shanahan offense. And that's not to say that Party hasn't

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Speaker 3: executed it nearly to perfection, because he has. But a

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Speaker 3: lot of it has been within the structure of the offense,

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Speaker 3: executing what he has been asked to do, and Shanahan

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Speaker 3: going like deep in his bag of scheming guys open.

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Speaker 3: And again, this doesn't mean that brock Perty isn't talented,

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Speaker 3: because he was a great prospect for the NFL in

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Speaker 3: the first two years of his career at Iowa State.

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Speaker 3: It's just in years three and four he kind of stagnated.

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Speaker 1: And so it's also not a throwing offense right history,

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Speaker 1: So I feel like I feel like that's pretty representative

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Speaker 1: of who he is. Like a guy who early in

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Speaker 1: his college career showed that there's a lot of NFL

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Speaker 1: potential there, but someone who didn't develop. And so maybe

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Speaker 1: with Shanahan he actually could develop into the guy that

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Speaker 1: we saw early on at Iowa State. But where he

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Speaker 1: is right now in his career, I don't think that

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Speaker 1: he really has the I'm not sold that he is

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Speaker 1: the guy with two minutes left. Shanahan can't scheme things

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Speaker 1: open for him. It's just Prety out there on the field,

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Speaker 1: needing to do it on his own. I'm not sold

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Speaker 1: that perty can do it.

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Speaker 3: That doesn't mean he can't, because what he has shown

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Speaker 3: us up to this point has been amazing. It just

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Speaker 3: means that he hasn't shown that he can do it

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Speaker 3: at this point in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Can I take away of rephrasing that it's not investable yet? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is betting pros right, So it's something that's really

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Speaker 1: tough to invest in at this point, whereas Gino has

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Speaker 1: been in the league a little bit longer. I always

352
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Speaker 1: feel like the teams with nothing to lose, like the

353
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Speaker 1: Seahawks have nothing. I mean, they were not supposed to

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Speaker 1: be here. They were like Dante from Clerks. They're just

355
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Speaker 1: not supposed to be here today. They were supposed to

356
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Speaker 1: be at home hanging out playing hockey, and instead now

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Speaker 1: they're in the playoffs. And to me, those teams are

358
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Speaker 1: always very dangerous. San Francisco has expectations, and I think

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Speaker 1: Shanahan's got a little pressure too, because this is a

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Speaker 1: team that has gotten to the mountaintop almost and fallen

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Speaker 1: short a few years, so I feel like there's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of pressure here. He gets a pass because

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Speaker 1: he's on his third quarterback in a season, so he's

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Speaker 1: gonna get a password regardless. But at the same time,

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Speaker 1: there's no way I think mentally there isn't a little

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Speaker 1: bit of pressure here on the San Francisco Fors and

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Speaker 1: on Shanahan as well. All right, let's move forward to

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Speaker 1: the next game here, because I'm looking forward. This is

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Speaker 1: the fresh blood of the NFL. Here. These are two

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Speaker 1: young quarterbacks. Everybody's handsome as long hair, something that the

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Speaker 1: three of us on this show know very little about,

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Speaker 1: and you're in a spot where I'm really looking forward

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Speaker 1: to this. I'm a huge Trevor Lawrence fan. I always

374
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Speaker 1: have been, and despite suffering a tough week eighteen lost

375
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Speaker 1: to denver La is in this and I know people

376
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Speaker 1: are pissed off at Staley for playing guys, but you know,

377
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Speaker 1: considering last year the way they took their foot off

378
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Speaker 1: the gas ended up missing the playoffs, I don't think

379
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Speaker 1: there's anything wrong with trying to get the Chargers to

380
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Speaker 1: get on track and play hard and have some momentum

381
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Speaker 1: going in. Did it work out? Know? Was it worth

382
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:52,040
Speaker 1: a try? I think so. But let's talk about the numbers,

383
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Speaker 1: because that's what matters here. Both of these teams are

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Speaker 1: going to be heading into the playoffs for the first

385
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Speaker 1: time quarterbacks again for Herbert and for our good pal

386
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Speaker 1: on the program here, Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville nine and eight,

387
00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:07,320
Speaker 1: Chargers ten and seven. Right now, this number is sitting

388
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Speaker 1: at two and a half. The Chargers are favored, which

389
00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:13,520
Speaker 1: seems like just a huge trap to me, Jim, Just

390
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:16,840
Speaker 1: a huge, enormous like it's it's and it's like, I

391
00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:19,119
Speaker 1: haven a good trap. It's like a trap that you know,

392
00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,000
Speaker 1: you see it in like a bad Wiley Coyote cartoon

393
00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:24,639
Speaker 1: where he's dug this enormous hole and he's put this huge,

394
00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:27,440
Speaker 1: you know, carpet over it and it's got a sign

395
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Speaker 1: with bird seed right there in the middle of it.

396
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Speaker 1: So let's start there. Let's start with the the money

397
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Speaker 1: line for this game, too, which is you're getting Jacksonville

398
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Speaker 1: to plus one ten on the consensus. As you said,

399
00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:40,600
Speaker 1: that's moved as well, and you're getting forty seven as

400
00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:42,840
Speaker 1: the over under. Jim, what are your thoughts on this

401
00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:46,200
Speaker 1: game between Jacksonville and the Chargers in Jacksonville.

402
00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:48,960
Speaker 2: Yes, so we've seen this number move towards the Jags,

403
00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:51,200
Speaker 2: and you know, obviously you want to get the best

404
00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:53,199
Speaker 2: number you want to get in before that movement occurs.

405
00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:54,760
Speaker 2: So you may be listening to be like, I might

406
00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:57,480
Speaker 2: have missed my boat, but I still think there's value

407
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Speaker 2: in the Jags if we ignore where the market open,

408
00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:02,399
Speaker 2: because if you ignore the fact that it opened to

409
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Speaker 2: two and a half opened with the money line being

410
00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:07,400
Speaker 2: plus money, it's no longer there. If you just told

411
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Speaker 2: me it opened it minus one to four in the

412
00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:10,920
Speaker 2: Jags money line, I'd be like, let's go, Like, I

413
00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:13,280
Speaker 2: think that's still a lot of value. Because I have

414
00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:17,800
Speaker 2: two separate models I use for betting, and the better one,

415
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Speaker 2: the one that's worked out, has been more successful recently,

416
00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:24,720
Speaker 2: has the Jags favored by three point nine to six points,

417
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Speaker 2: which is a lot. It is the biggest error I've

418
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Speaker 2: seen in a playoff game in a long time. So

419
00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:32,919
Speaker 2: it's it's I don't deviate in the market that much

420
00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:36,200
Speaker 2: typically in playoff games, but here we are, so three

421
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:38,480
Speaker 2: point nine to six the Jags are favorites. Do I go, Okay,

422
00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:40,639
Speaker 2: that model is too high in the Jags. It waits

423
00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:44,840
Speaker 2: up passing efficiency, it might penalize the Chargers for a

424
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,040
Speaker 2: lot of stuff. So we turned to the second model.

425
00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 2: What do you see there? Jags favorite by three point five.

426
00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:53,679
Speaker 2: So in both models the Jags are favored by more

427
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:56,200
Speaker 2: than a field goal. Does that make me uncomfortable? Yeah,

428
00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 2: obviously they nerve. They haven't been here since the Blake

429
00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:00,920
Speaker 2: bortals here. I don't think so. Twenty seventeen, you know,

430
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,879
Speaker 2: they were cooking the AC Championship game, stuff like that.

431
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:08,119
Speaker 2: But I don't disagree, despite the fact it might feel

432
00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:11,159
Speaker 2: really weird. I don't think it's totally wrong because this

433
00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 2: Chargers team is infuriating with how dependent they are in

434
00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:18,080
Speaker 2: hero Ball on laid downs. They put Justin Herbert in

435
00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 2: awful situations and expect him to bail them out, and

436
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:25,200
Speaker 2: he does. He's awesome, But like, is that sustainable? We

437
00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:27,240
Speaker 2: saw that in the Raiders game in Week eighteen last

438
00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:29,000
Speaker 2: year where they were trying to rave for that tie

439
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:32,200
Speaker 2: and Herbert again or time after time after time gets

440
00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:36,840
Speaker 2: them huge conversions in lay downs and eventually gets into overtime.

441
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:37,320
Speaker 1: In that game.

442
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:39,840
Speaker 2: They shouldn't have been there, They should not have gotten

443
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:41,520
Speaker 2: there if they didn't have a freak as White quarterback

444
00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:44,680
Speaker 2: and Justin Herbert. But you can't put a guy in

445
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,680
Speaker 2: a hole that often purposely, it seems like, and expecting

446
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:50,840
Speaker 2: to dig you out every time. So I actually think

447
00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:53,159
Speaker 2: it's okay Dad. The Jags favorite here. They have been

448
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:58,680
Speaker 2: a productive passing offense for the entire season. They're facing

449
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,200
Speaker 2: a Chargers team that Mike Williams sounds like he'll go,

450
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 2: but you know, we don't know about Joey Bosa, Like

451
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,000
Speaker 2: there are some question marks on both sides of the

452
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:08,159
Speaker 2: Chargers team. If I assume both those guys are in

453
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:10,360
Speaker 2: right now, I show value in the Jags, which means

454
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,399
Speaker 2: if they get ruled out, there'd be even more value.

455
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:14,680
Speaker 2: So I think even though this is moved towards the Jags,

456
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:16,360
Speaker 2: you kind of miss vote a bit. I still think

457
00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:18,400
Speaker 2: there is value in the Jags.

458
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:18,560
Speaker 1: In this game.

459
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,239
Speaker 3: Joe, I gotta I gotta ask you a question here.

460
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,120
Speaker 1: I gotta ask the guests the question, Oh yeah.

461
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 3: Ji, So in the models, and I don't want to

462
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,920
Speaker 3: like dig too far into the weeds, but what kind

463
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 3: of goes into your model? So I'm assuming that it's

464
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:36,680
Speaker 3: based on some of the historical data of what we've

465
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:39,440
Speaker 3: seen out of the Chargers to this point in the year.

466
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 3: And so my question would be if a lot of

467
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 3: that data is no longer representative because let's say Mike

468
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 3: Williams was out for a chunk of that time, Keenan

469
00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,000
Speaker 3: Allen was out for a chunk of that time, they

470
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,760
Speaker 3: were missing some players on defense. So if it's based

471
00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,920
Speaker 3: on data that isn't representative, I guess the question is

472
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:59,920
Speaker 3: is it based on data that might not be representative.

473
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 2: It's tweaked, So basically it's I have like the full

474
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 2: season numbers here, and then I look at what their

475
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 2: numbers were and they're splits with the guys who are healthy. Okay,

476
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,359
Speaker 2: So with both it's a small sample, which means you're

477
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 2: kind of you're not taking that sample at face value.

478
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 2: You're looking at what the numbers say in the games

479
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 2: they've had Joey Bosa and then adjusting like, okay, is

480
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 2: this representative what you should expect because like for some teams,

481
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,359
Speaker 2: they will be worse when their star players are active,

482
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 2: which is not logical, so you're still going to bump

483
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 2: them up for those guys. He just kind of uses

484
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 2: as like a guiding light to decide which direction to go. Now,

485
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 2: with the Chargers, I have their passing offense as being

486
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 2: like a step below what I'd expect with Keenan Allen

487
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 2: and Mike Williams because Mike Williams is not fully healthy

488
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:43,920
Speaker 2: and he plays he's banged up, So they are tweaked

489
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 2: from their like baseline to account for that because they've

490
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 2: been playing without Mike Williams for long stretches without Keenan Allen.

491
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 2: But then the defensive side, having Bosa back does definitely

492
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,399
Speaker 2: help them, So those are factored in. It is a

493
00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 2: manual adjustment, which means I could be underweighting those guys,

494
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 2: but it is a factored in there well.

495
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:04,720
Speaker 1: With all adjustments being made, I think one adjustment we

496
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 1: all have to also keep in mind iss talk about

497
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 1: the adjustment that the Jacksonville Jaguars defense has made lately.

498
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 1: They have allowed just twenty two points combined in the

499
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:15,440
Speaker 1: last three games. Now. I know we can talk about

500
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 1: some of the quarterback play perhaps they were going against

501
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 1: that's fair, but they're also getting to the quarterback quite

502
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,159
Speaker 1: a bit. Regardless of who that quarterback is. They have

503
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 1: at least two sacks in every game since Week thirteen,

504
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:28,680
Speaker 1: and in two games three and in two games four,

505
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 1: they are getting to the quarterback. You put pressure on

506
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 1: the quarterback, good things happen. You could tell because you're

507
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 1: also seeing interception numbers here along those lines when you

508
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 1: look at the defensive numbers for the Jacksonville Jaguars. As

509
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 1: much as we're all talking about the quarterbacks, and I'm

510
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 1: talking about the offenses, and that's what probably the national

511
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 1: media wants to focus on. Me being the nerd for

512
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 1: defense that I am. I kind of want to talk

513
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 1: about the Jacksonville Jaguars defense and what they can do

514
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,880
Speaker 1: in this game to stop Austin Eckler, but also put

515
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 1: pressure on Justin Herbert and try to force some mistakes here. Friedman.

516
00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 1: That is the angle I keep to whenever I'm talking

517
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:03,639
Speaker 1: about this game. We're all wrapped up in the quarterbacks.

518
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:05,760
Speaker 1: They're fun, they're exciting, they're young, they're in the future

519
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:09,120
Speaker 1: of the NFL bought defense with championships, and the Jacksonville

520
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:12,399
Speaker 1: Jaguars defense it's been pretty good lately. What are your

521
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 1: thoughts on this game? Where do you see the value.

522
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:19,640
Speaker 3: The Jags defense. It's inconsistent, it's it's volatile. So wide

523
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:23,400
Speaker 3: ranger outcomes with them, you know, like and I think

524
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 3: it's hard to predict game to game, matchup to match up,

525
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:30,119
Speaker 3: what version of the Jags defense is going to show up,

526
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 3: because sometimes you would think, oh, like they have a

527
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 3: really good matchup in the spot, and then they don't

528
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:36,680
Speaker 3: do what it is you think that they would do

529
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 3: given the talent that they have. But they they are

530
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 3: an emerging defense. They do they do have talent, especially

531
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 3: on the defensive line, and you know, going against an

532
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 3: offensive line and the Chargers that is also inconsistent, you

533
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 3: could see some you could see some pressure there. The

534
00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 3: thing with Herbert is that he is he has become

535
00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 3: very good, especially this season, at compensating the deficiencies of

536
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 3: his offensive line. He does not take many sacks, and

537
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 3: that's not because his offensive line is good. It's just

538
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 3: because he has been able to get rid of the

539
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,159
Speaker 3: ball pretty quickly. And that does speak, I think a

540
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:15,959
Speaker 3: little bit too, some of the inefficiencies of the offense

541
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 3: for the Chargers in terms of why is it they're

542
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:19,919
Speaker 3: not pushing the ball down the field a little bit

543
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 3: more on early downs. But at least Herbert hasn't been

544
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 3: taking a lot of sacks and they are in situations

545
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 3: where they're able to extend drives. One thing, I'll just say,

546
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:31,920
Speaker 3: I do have this close to a pick them, but

547
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 3: I have the Chargers as slight favorites. But there are

548
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 3: some things that do point towards the Jags, and these

549
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:42,120
Speaker 3: are these are like small edges, but they do kind

550
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 3: of add up a little bit. So one thing that

551
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 3: is in the Jags favor this is a primetime game,

552
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 3: and we do have their coach, Doug Peterson has historically

553
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 3: been good in primetime spots. We don't have that for

554
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:01,880
Speaker 3: the Chargers. Another thing the Chargers traveling across the country,

555
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,119
Speaker 3: and so like that time zone difference is another thing

556
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 3: with a team traveling west to east.

557
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 1: And then one more thing.

558
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 3: You do have a slight rest advantage, a one day

559
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:16,680
Speaker 3: rest advantage for the Jags, and that they played last Saturday,

560
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:18,400
Speaker 3: whereas the Chargers.

561
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,439
Speaker 1: Played on Sunday, and so they're you know, playing with only.

562
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 3: Six days of rest. So there are these small edges

563
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 3: that I do account for in my model, and like

564
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 3: any one of them isn't that big of a thing,

565
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 3: but like the three of them together and it's like, yeah,

566
00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 3: this puts it pretty close to a pick them, but

567
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 3: I still have the Chargers as the slightest of favorites.

568
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 3: I think the over might be a spot that is

569
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 3: slightly intriguing to me. I haven't bet on this game

570
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 3: or the other game. I haven't taken a position yet.

571
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 3: But the total right now is I believe forty seven

572
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 3: and a half, and I have this projected at forty

573
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:55,959
Speaker 3: eight and a half. So I do think that there

574
00:26:56,040 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 3: is some value there, but not enough to make me

575
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:02,959
Speaker 3: want to jump on it at this point. I kind

576
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 3: of want to see a little bit where the numbers go.

577
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 1: One other thing, obviously, you know, we talked about the

578
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 1: quarterbacks in the last game. Let's talk about the coaches

579
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,120
Speaker 1: in this one too, because Jim, you've got a coach

580
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,119
Speaker 1: and Doug Peterson who has taken a team to the

581
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 1: Super Bowl and to a victory over a Patriots team

582
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 1: coach by Bill Belichick. Preparation is important. I think it's

583
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 1: always tough for you know, young coaches to you know,

584
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 1: learn on the fly. Sometimes we see magical things happen

585
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 1: at sports, but at the same time, experience does matter,

586
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 1: and preparation for understanding what these teams have to do

587
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:36,159
Speaker 1: in this spot matters too. Is that an advantage of

588
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 1: your opinion? It's not gonna throw up in the stat

589
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 1: sheet necessarily, but is that an advantage of the jacksonvill

590
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 1: Jaguars people should consider when making investments in this game.

591
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't consider it too much. I think the

592
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:47,600
Speaker 2: bigger thing I'm considering is like, which brand and stalely

593
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 2: do we see?

594
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 3: Like?

595
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 2: Can we see the twenty twenty two Brandon Saley has

596
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,440
Speaker 2: been kind of a coward in terms of like aggressiveness,

597
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 2: or do we see the twenty twenty one guy who

598
00:27:56,680 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 2: is like free will I'm like, hey, I've got a

599
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 2: superstar quarterback, let's use him. I don't know. I don't

600
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:03,920
Speaker 2: think he knows which version we'll see either, because it

601
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 2: seems like he got we see.

602
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 1: That version because of all the wide receiver injuries, because

603
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:10,479
Speaker 1: we didn't have Keenan Allen, because we didn't have Mike

604
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 1: Williams for so much of the season. Was it just

605
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 1: maybe just the pulling in the reins because let's just

606
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 1: focus on Yeah, well, because of what you don't have,

607
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 1: not so much what you do what you do?

608
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 2: Maybe I would I would hope to so because I

609
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 2: want to see I'd rather watch Justin Herbert than a punt,

610
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 2: So like, I'd rather see a more aggressive version, but like,

611
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,399
Speaker 2: I can't guarantee that I'll that we'll see a more

612
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:33,719
Speaker 2: aggressive version of Brandon Staley. So I think that's kind

613
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 2: of more what I'm interested in is because that could

614
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 2: relate to the total as well. They're going to go

615
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 2: be aggressive, go for touchdowns versus field goals that not

616
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 2: only changes like could push you towards the over, but

617
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 2: also changes like key numbers and the way you want

618
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 2: to bet this game in that regard as well.

619
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:48,240
Speaker 1: So I don't know.

620
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 2: I think I think the bigger factor for me is

621
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 2: whether Brandon Staley continues to be a coward or if

622
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 2: we see like the last year version of him again,

623
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 2: if we assume that everyone's fully healthy, and I can't.

624
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 2: I can't assume Mike Williams is fully healthy. I can

625
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 2: assume it play, but I can't assume he's fully healthy.

626
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 2: I think that's kind of the reason I'm hesitant to

627
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 2: be super jazz about the.

628
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 1: Chargers in this game. All right, Any final thoughts here

629
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 1: for Freedman. I always see I can tell your mind

630
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:16,960
Speaker 1: as always going here on the program you're looking at things.

631
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,240
Speaker 1: Final thoughts here on the Jags game before we close

632
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 1: out today's show.

633
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, there was one more small edge for the Jags

634
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:24,239
Speaker 3: that I missed, and that the Chargers are playing their

635
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 3: second straight road game, and so like, if you took

636
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 3: away all of those little edges that I mentioned, then

637
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 3: my number would be exactly where the market is right now,

638
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 3: at like one or one and a half. But because

639
00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 3: of those edges, I do have the slightest lean towards

640
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 3: the Jags, who I have projected at point twenty five underdogs.

641
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 1: All right, For more, you can always go to bettingpros

642
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:47,479
Speaker 1: dot com and check out our prop bet chi chi too.

643
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 1: As the props start coming in for these games, all

644
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 1: of it right there in front of you. What the

645
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 1: biggest variance is where to bet it? I mean, we're

646
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 1: doing the work for you, so go check it out

647
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com. Go check out Jim Satus too.

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Speaker 1: Incredible work. Jim, You're the top of the board, baby,

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00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 1: You're the one one I always love talking football with you. Man,

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00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 1: so grateful for your time. You follow him on the

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00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 1: Twitter machine at Jim Sandas. Checkout's work at Number fire

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00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 1: and at VANDOL and of course you could follow him

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00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 1: on Twitter. There that'll do it for us. But the

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00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 1: story of the game goes on for Jim and Matthew Friedman.

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Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids,