WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: January 20th, 2026 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.680 --> 0:00:15.480 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.480 --> 0:00:18.720 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amerie Hordern join us each day 0:00:18.760 --> 0:00:22.280 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.960 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.319 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.960 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.040 --> 0:00:37.120 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this out 0:00:37.159 --> 0:00:39.560 with stocks extending their sell off as President Donald Trump's 0:00:39.560 --> 0:00:42.960 push to take control of Greenland is sending fresh volatility 0:00:43.040 --> 0:00:46.760 into markets worldwide. The IBM Vice chairman and former NEC 0:00:46.960 --> 0:00:49.480 director Gary Cohne joins us now for more carry good 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:51.559 to see you, good, Thanks for having me. You heard 0:00:51.560 --> 0:00:53.519 the way we open the program. There seem to be 0:00:53.560 --> 0:00:56.720 a concrete ideology when you were alongside the president in 0:00:56.760 --> 0:00:59.920 his first term or how would you describe this moment? 0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:01.080 What is this all about? 0:01:02.280 --> 0:01:05.000 No one knows for sure, but I think what we've 0:01:05.080 --> 0:01:08.560 seen evolve in the Trump presidency is this desire to 0:01:08.680 --> 0:01:12.319 negotiate and get a deal. So ultimately, is Greenland all 0:01:12.360 --> 0:01:15.520 about getting a deal? We know that the North Atlantic 0:01:16.120 --> 0:01:18.759 is becoming much more of a sought after territory from 0:01:18.760 --> 0:01:22.440 a militaristic standpoint, So I understand the presence concerned to 0:01:22.520 --> 0:01:25.720 have a military presence and protection of the North Atlantic 0:01:26.080 --> 0:01:29.880 is if we want to expand our air defenses. Greenland 0:01:29.920 --> 0:01:32.679 is a pretty strategic spot, so I understand what the 0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:33.600 President's interest is. 0:01:33.760 --> 0:01:35.520 They also have rarers, which is. 0:01:35.480 --> 0:01:38.520 Something that we in the United States can't supply to ourselves. 0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:42.600 So the question is is this a negotiating posture to 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:45.800 get a deal with Greenland, to get more rarers, to 0:01:45.800 --> 0:01:48.720 get a larger naval and air force presence. And it 0:01:48.760 --> 0:01:51.680 may be it does seem like that's on the table, 0:01:51.840 --> 0:01:53.920 and this may all evolve in a place where the 0:01:54.000 --> 0:01:56.440 United States ends up in a very good strategic position. 0:01:56.480 --> 0:01:58.120 Do you think that's the way the business world sees 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:00.360 it coming into the world economy before in this week? 0:02:00.440 --> 0:02:02.880 You know, I think the business world's split on it. 0:02:02.960 --> 0:02:04.840 You know, you've a these got a European presence here 0:02:04.840 --> 0:02:06.800 in the US presence here. I think the US presence 0:02:06.880 --> 0:02:08.960 is a little bit more optimistic that this is going 0:02:09.040 --> 0:02:11.240 to end in the right place, and we've seen this before. 0:02:11.520 --> 0:02:14.560 I think the European contingency is a little more leary 0:02:14.639 --> 0:02:15.880 and say, look, you. 0:02:15.840 --> 0:02:18.560 Know, maybe you're confident this ends well. We don't like 0:02:18.639 --> 0:02:20.360 being in the middle of this right now, which is. 0:02:20.360 --> 0:02:23.400 A reason why in European hours, treasuries are selling off 0:02:23.480 --> 0:02:26.000 much more of the dollar was much lower, and as 0:02:26.040 --> 0:02:28.600 the US wakes up, people are coming in and buying it. 0:02:29.040 --> 0:02:32.240 How much is the sell America trade real and how 0:02:32.320 --> 0:02:35.560 much is it a perception based on these moments, the 0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:36.320 ones that we saw on. 0:02:36.360 --> 0:02:39.760 Liberation Day, there is some sell America going on right now. 0:02:39.760 --> 0:02:42.639 I've met with a couple of different asset managers this morning, say, 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:45.880 the global funds are reallocating a little bit out of 0:02:45.919 --> 0:02:46.440 the United. 0:02:46.280 --> 0:02:47.600 States, so you see that. 0:02:47.639 --> 0:02:49.680 You know, interest rates are higher, so people selling bonds 0:02:49.760 --> 0:02:52.760 rates go higher. People are repatriating currency back home. They're 0:02:52.800 --> 0:02:55.680 selling dollars to buy local currency, they're selling stock market 0:02:55.680 --> 0:02:58.079 they've got to repatriate currency. So I think we're seeing 0:02:58.160 --> 0:03:01.080 a little bit of that. I don't think that's what's 0:03:01.160 --> 0:03:03.800 driving the overall market right now. It doesn't feel like 0:03:03.840 --> 0:03:06.000 we've got a liquidate in America. It feels like we've 0:03:06.040 --> 0:03:09.640 got a trim around the edges in asset allocation models 0:03:09.680 --> 0:03:09.960 going on. 0:03:10.120 --> 0:03:12.760 This goes back to the wrestling match we were describing 0:03:12.960 --> 0:03:15.040 AI on one side. You've got politics on the other, 0:03:15.080 --> 0:03:17.520 and they're facing off and sort of sell America until. 0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:19.440 AI rears its head and get into the lead. And 0:03:19.440 --> 0:03:20.160 that's where it is. 0:03:20.200 --> 0:03:22.680 Sell America until the light turns green and everyone has 0:03:22.720 --> 0:03:26.640 to buy America. Because in the real reality, if you 0:03:26.720 --> 0:03:28.760 look at the US economy and what's going on, we've 0:03:28.760 --> 0:03:30.840 got one of the strongest economies in the world today. 0:03:31.120 --> 0:03:33.200 You know, we're growing at five plus percent and growth. 0:03:33.639 --> 0:03:36.400 We've got a pretty good tail wind going on behind US. 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:38.960 I mean, right now, the only thing stopping is all 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:42.520 this geopolitical risk. If and when, and I say, when 0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:46.440 this geopolitical risk settles down, the market's probably going to 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:48.640 take off again. That's been the history of this pattern. 0:03:48.760 --> 0:03:51.560 Settles down Gary. Two and a half weeks ago, we 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:54.720 captured Nicholas Madora. It feels like a decade ago. Now 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:57.640 we're sitting in Davos talking about Greenland. You think you 0:03:58.160 --> 0:03:59.240 to settle down under a. 0:03:59.280 --> 0:04:02.400 Recadministry two weeks Yeah, we're going to settle down. 0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:05.720 I think that there's a couple of balls up in 0:04:05.720 --> 0:04:06.600 the air right now. 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:09.960 But you know, this two show pass. 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:13.280 We can go back in the last eight twelve years, 0:04:13.320 --> 0:04:15.640 and there's been periods of time where we've had these, 0:04:16.040 --> 0:04:17.000 you know, highly. 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:18.520 Volatile geopolitical moments. 0:04:18.600 --> 0:04:21.240 We're in a highly valuatible geopolitical. 0:04:20.480 --> 0:04:21.239 Moment right now. 0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:23.600 And by the way, I'm not sure as a coincidence 0:04:23.640 --> 0:04:24.919 that Davis is right in the middle. 0:04:25.040 --> 0:04:27.120 All right, Interesting, I want to ask you about the 0:04:27.120 --> 0:04:29.440 FED chair race because you were in the room with 0:04:29.480 --> 0:04:31.960 the president in Trump won when he decided to go 0:04:32.000 --> 0:04:32.240 for J. 0:04:32.400 --> 0:04:32.799 Powell. 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:35.080 What kind of questions do you think he's lobbing at 0:04:35.080 --> 0:04:37.280 these individuals and in the end, who do you think 0:04:37.279 --> 0:04:38.120 it's going to come down to. 0:04:38.520 --> 0:04:40.600 Look, the president's in an enviable position right now. 0:04:40.640 --> 0:04:43.479 He's got what we know, He's got four really highly 0:04:43.560 --> 0:04:46.680 qualified candidates. Any one of those four could do a 0:04:46.720 --> 0:04:49.080 really good job in there. I think the President at 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:54.120 this point is trying to understand the sort of mindset 0:04:54.240 --> 0:04:56.359 of the person he's going to put into the position. 0:04:56.680 --> 0:04:59.560 The President clearly has a view on what interest rate 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:02.880 policy should be. The problem or the opportunity with the 0:05:02.880 --> 0:05:05.760 FED job is once he appoints someone into that job, 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:09.520 they're an independent agency and he loses his day to 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:12.279 day contact with that person. So I think the President 0:05:12.360 --> 0:05:15.719 learned in the first administration that it's very important to 0:05:15.720 --> 0:05:17.799 who he puts in that job, and that he should 0:05:17.880 --> 0:05:20.520 make sure that he's very comfortable with their policy mandate 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:21.839 before he appoints them. 0:05:21.920 --> 0:05:23.960 Do you think it's become even more important now that 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:27.400 that individual needs to have the ability to persuade the 0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:30.039 rest of the committee in a way that maybe a 0:05:30.080 --> 0:05:32.800 few years ago that wasn't as relevant. There's just a 0:05:32.839 --> 0:05:35.279 sense on Wall Street that the President's approach in the 0:05:35.320 --> 0:05:38.200 last twelve months has galvanized the rest of the committee 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:38.600 to dig in. 0:05:39.440 --> 0:05:41.800 Look, I think the committee's structure is going to be 0:05:41.800 --> 0:05:45.680 the committee structure. I'm not sure if the chairperson can 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:49.240 ultimately sway the committee that far. Could they sway one 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:52.720 vote or two votes potentially? But you've got some very 0:05:52.760 --> 0:05:56.599 strong regional bank presidents, You've got some very strong governors 0:05:56.960 --> 0:05:59.400 in the FED. I think the FED, ultimately, at the 0:05:59.480 --> 0:06:01.040 end of the day, is going to be a tough 0:06:01.080 --> 0:06:03.760 group to persuade. I think they'll come out in the 0:06:03.839 --> 0:06:06.400 right place I mean, historically, the FED has done a 0:06:06.520 --> 0:06:09.200 very good job. Have they been a little bit late? Yeah, 0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:13.599 they were late in the transitory inflationary problem of COVID, 0:06:13.800 --> 0:06:14.640 but they've caught up. 0:06:14.680 --> 0:06:15.839 They've gotten to the right place. 0:06:15.920 --> 0:06:17.840 I think if you look at the FED through the cycle, 0:06:18.040 --> 0:06:19.200 they end up getting. 0:06:18.960 --> 0:06:19.640 To the right place. 0:06:19.800 --> 0:06:23.039 He was diplomatic about the four candidates. Can I just 0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:27.240 talk about some of them individually? You can Governor Chris Waller? 0:06:27.320 --> 0:06:30.159 You can too, You can governor Chris Waller. I believe 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:33.640 you were part of that process, right, Vice Chef Clarity, 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:36.240 you were part of that process too. What was the 0:06:36.279 --> 0:06:39.440 president's approach to that process back then? Was he as 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:40.960 involved as he appears to be now? 0:06:41.760 --> 0:06:45.800 He was not as involved then, But you remember he 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:49.440 was a first term president who was an outsider to Washington. 0:06:49.680 --> 0:06:51.479 That was part of his mystique. As he was an 0:06:51.520 --> 0:06:54.839 outsider to Washington. He knew he had to put someone 0:06:54.880 --> 0:06:58.400 into the FED chair's role, and he approached it. But 0:06:58.680 --> 0:07:02.480 I think now, understanding the importance of interest rate policy 0:07:02.839 --> 0:07:06.440 and understanding his view of interest rate policy, he's taking 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:09.680 considerably more time talking to the various candidates. 0:07:09.680 --> 0:07:12.120 Ill asked you the question, Mike got even trouble. Is 0:07:12.200 --> 0:07:15.440 Kevin Wash a chameleon? Is he a hawk? Is he 0:07:15.480 --> 0:07:17.720 a dove? Is he whatever it takes to get the job? 0:07:17.840 --> 0:07:19.960 Why didn't you get the job last time? Look, Kevin 0:07:20.000 --> 0:07:22.400 is highly qualified, without doubt. Kevin has served in the 0:07:22.440 --> 0:07:24.960 FED without a doubt. Kevin was there during some of 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:27.800 the toughest days of the FED during the financial crisis. 0:07:28.120 --> 0:07:31.360 I personally was dealing with Kevin on an hourly basis 0:07:31.680 --> 0:07:33.400 as we were trying to figure out what was going 0:07:33.440 --> 0:07:36.440 on in the United States financials system. Kevin was an 0:07:36.520 --> 0:07:40.280 active participant in the outcome that we all benefited from. 0:07:40.440 --> 0:07:42.360 And without Kevin's wisdom, I'm not sure we would have 0:07:42.400 --> 0:07:45.520 ended up in the same place. He's a highly qualified candidate. 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:47.320 It sounds like out of the thought that's who he'd 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:48.920 like to see in the seat. Based on that strong 0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:50.160 defense of Kevin Wood. 0:07:49.960 --> 0:07:52.840 I think Kevin Hasset's a great quality candidate. I worked 0:07:52.880 --> 0:07:54.280 with Kevin Hasse when I was in the White House. 0:07:54.320 --> 0:07:56.960 He was the CEA director. You thought Kevin Kevin Hasse 0:07:57.160 --> 0:07:58.760 was an excellent CEA. 0:07:58.920 --> 0:08:00.520 Let me tell you what some people say about Kevin 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:02.880 has said that if he's appointed, that's a puppet of 0:08:02.920 --> 0:08:04.640 the President of the United styce sit. 0:08:04.680 --> 0:08:06.160 They're small and do whatever it takes. 0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:09.200 Is that unfat You know, you and I both know 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:12.160 whoever gets appointed, there will be people that are disappointed 0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:14.240 and will have negative things to say about them. On 0:08:14.280 --> 0:08:16.160 the flip side, there will be people that'll be very 0:08:16.200 --> 0:08:18.600 happy with whoever one of those four gets appointed, and 0:08:18.640 --> 0:08:21.080 if it's if it's a fifth candiate we haven't seen yet, 0:08:21.200 --> 0:08:22.480 they'll be equally happy. 0:08:22.200 --> 0:08:22.640 With that one. 0:08:22.960 --> 0:08:24.400 There is a sense of whoever's going to be there, 0:08:24.400 --> 0:08:26.480 they're going to cut rates. How much is the entire 0:08:26.520 --> 0:08:28.160 buildout of AI, which is what you spend most of 0:08:28.200 --> 0:08:31.200 your time talking about here, based on the idea that 0:08:31.240 --> 0:08:32.880 the FED is going to be easying policy. 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:36.920 No matter what the AI buildout in rates their link, 0:08:37.000 --> 0:08:39.840 but they're not in a strictly link. This AI buildout 0:08:39.920 --> 0:08:43.079 is being built because there's demand, there's forward demand, and 0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:46.120 the AI companies feel like they are behind the curve 0:08:46.200 --> 0:08:48.880 and being able to facilitate the needs of their clients. 0:08:49.040 --> 0:08:51.120 They are going to build these data centers. The only 0:08:51.200 --> 0:08:53.320 question that rates have is what is the ultimate all 0:08:53.400 --> 0:08:55.720 in cost to build these things? And interest rates are 0:08:55.720 --> 0:08:58.959 going to be important These are big, huge capex expenditures 0:08:59.080 --> 0:09:01.319 with thirty year life, so you know the amount of 0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:03.079 interest you're going to pay to finance win these centers 0:09:03.160 --> 0:09:05.920 is important. So twenty five or fifty basis points has 0:09:05.960 --> 0:09:09.440 a lot to do with these decisions. But I will 0:09:09.480 --> 0:09:12.760 caution you, like I always do, the FED only controls 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:15.959 FED funds, they control overnight rates. You've been talking all 0:09:16.000 --> 0:09:18.320 morning about the tenure, the ten years at four thirty 0:09:18.920 --> 0:09:21.200 where these where these data centers are going to be financed. 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:23.080 They're going to be financed to the medium to the 0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:25.040 long to the very long end of the curve. It's 0:09:25.080 --> 0:09:28.160 going to the combination of duration. FED funds is not 0:09:28.160 --> 0:09:30.520 going to affect that. So FED funds could possibly go 0:09:30.600 --> 0:09:33.280 down and the interest rate to finance a data setting 0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:34.320 could be unchanged. 0:09:34.360 --> 0:09:35.520 Do you miss the trident floor? 0:09:35.840 --> 0:09:37.040 Of course you missed the trading floor. 0:09:37.120 --> 0:09:38.839 Yeah, if you missed the tread and floor, can you 0:09:38.840 --> 0:09:40.760 imagine how scary things were back at Goment back in 0:09:40.760 --> 0:09:42.520 the day. But that's when the first year round list. 0:09:42.520 --> 0:09:43.720 Gary's walking the trident floor. 0:09:43.800 --> 0:09:46.240 Yeah, I think that he But John, that's when they 0:09:46.360 --> 0:09:48.840 really were trading floor us. Like he actually stood up 0:09:48.920 --> 0:09:50.840 and talked on phones and smoked each other. 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:53.760 And did it prepare now now it's machines. Now it's machines. 0:09:53.800 --> 0:09:55.080 Did it prepare you for the West Wing? 0:09:55.559 --> 0:09:57.480 I did it? Did it? Very much? Did? 0:09:57.679 --> 0:09:58.160 In what way? 0:09:58.200 --> 0:09:58.520 Gary? 0:09:59.280 --> 0:10:03.000 Just they think the ability to be watching five different 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:05.040 things going on at the same time and be listening 0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:05.920 in five places. 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:09.600 People in the White House were always amazed that I. 0:10:09.600 --> 0:10:12.000 Could be like having a conversation over here and talking 0:10:12.000 --> 0:10:14.200 to someone behind me because I heard them talking. But 0:10:14.240 --> 0:10:15.680 when you grew up in a trading floor, and you 0:10:15.679 --> 0:10:18.200 grew up in a trading environment, your eyes and ears 0:10:18.280 --> 0:10:19.280 have to see everything. 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:23.400 Stay with us more Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. 0:10:32.520 --> 0:10:34.840 Joining us now in Dallas, Switzerland's Paul Ryan, the former 0:10:34.880 --> 0:10:37.400 House Speaker and now today Vice Chef Speaker. 0:10:37.480 --> 0:10:38.200 Ryan, Good morning, good to. 0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:40.080 See you, Good morning to see I had this question 0:10:40.160 --> 0:10:42.679 planned for a while. Does your party now have more 0:10:42.720 --> 0:10:45.040 in common with Senator Bernie Sanders than the one hundred 0:10:45.040 --> 0:10:47.160 and fourteenth and one hundred and fifteenth Congress that you 0:10:47.200 --> 0:10:47.520 ever saw? 0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:51.640 Apparently in economics, maybe the case is right on tariffs 0:10:51.679 --> 0:10:54.760 and on interest rate caps and things like that. Perhaps 0:10:55.600 --> 0:10:58.079 I'm a conservative. This is not conservative economics. 0:10:58.200 --> 0:10:59.760 It's the space for that in your party. 0:10:59.840 --> 0:11:02.600 Now, yeah, there is. Our party is a big ten party. 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:03.800 It's got a lot of different factions. 0:11:03.840 --> 0:11:05.880 The dominant faction right now is more of an economic 0:11:05.920 --> 0:11:06.840 populist faction. 0:11:07.400 --> 0:11:09.560 That's the President's faction. That's MAGA. 0:11:10.480 --> 0:11:12.880 I'm a conservative, I'm in the minority of my own party. 0:11:12.920 --> 0:11:17.239 But that happens when John's talking about having this relationship, 0:11:17.320 --> 0:11:19.240 say the MAGA wing with Bernie Sanders. 0:11:19.280 --> 0:11:21.720 We're seeing that with a ton of issues. 0:11:21.720 --> 0:11:24.920 The president's talking about that the defense sector shouldn't have 0:11:25.000 --> 0:11:27.760 dividends or buybacks, credit card interest rate caps. Bernie Sanders 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:31.520 literally wrote the bill. How do individuals in the minority 0:11:31.600 --> 0:11:34.160 of the Republican Party right now make their voices heard. 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:37.880 This is populism, but it's populism tethered to whatever people 0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:42.360 think is popular, not tethered to certain core principles like liberty, freedom, 0:11:42.400 --> 0:11:45.240 free enterprise, private property rights, et cetera, et cetera. So 0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:47.360 my wing of the party, which is the classical liberal 0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:49.360 conservative winging the free market wing of the party, is 0:11:49.360 --> 0:11:51.520 in the minority, and we just have to make our 0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:53.600 case for why we believe what we believe in why 0:11:53.640 --> 0:11:55.040 we think people are better off. At the end of 0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:58.360 the day, the challenge is it's hard to defeat populism 0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:01.760 in sound bites, in emotion, and that's what can win 0:12:01.800 --> 0:12:03.640 the day, but it doesn't win the issue. It doesn't 0:12:03.640 --> 0:12:06.200 actually deliver the results. So the end of the day, 0:12:06.520 --> 0:12:08.840 I think results are what matter, and I think people 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:13.520 voters vote for results. If they're going to vote for populism, 0:12:13.600 --> 0:12:15.800 that that that that speaks to their concerns and their 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:18.360 grievances and their their and their frustrations. 0:12:18.679 --> 0:12:19.320 That's one thing. 0:12:19.360 --> 0:12:23.199 But if that populism doesn't deliver policies that actually solve problems, 0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:25.520 then they're going to look elsewhere and hopefully we can 0:12:25.600 --> 0:12:29.720 have a better discussion about what actually works. What principles 0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:32.840 that build our country, that make our economy strong. It's 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:35.679 our private property rights, our deep liquid capital markets, our 0:12:35.720 --> 0:12:36.360 rule of law. 0:12:36.880 --> 0:12:39.280 That's why America is America. That's why we've done so well. 0:12:39.360 --> 0:12:41.680 We have to defend those principles, even if those principles 0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:42.520 aren't that popular. 0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:44.199 You're a free market individual. 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:47.439 This administration is taking equity stakes in companies. 0:12:47.960 --> 0:12:50.319 Is that state capitalism the way that Chinese do it, 0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:52.400 or say, like the Europeans in the seventies. 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:55.400 Yeah, it's more of Europeans more, it's more Japanese, it's 0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:58.720 more Europeans. It's it's not Chinese, it's it's it's not 0:12:58.760 --> 0:13:00.839 what conservatives are for. We don't believe in doing that. 0:13:01.400 --> 0:13:05.839 But this is more industrial policy, less, less communist dictatorship. 0:13:05.880 --> 0:13:07.120 It's very different. 0:13:07.720 --> 0:13:10.320 Your role right now is to advise companies, and you're 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:12.400 coming at a time where companies have no clue what's 0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:14.199 going on at the White House or what might come 0:13:14.280 --> 0:13:14.800 out of it. 0:13:15.080 --> 0:13:16.040 What do you tell them? 0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:18.280 Yeah, I mean, we just did a survey actually of 0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:22.080 seven hundred and fifty CEOs that Tonayo just did, and frankly, 0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:23.840 a lot of them are pretty optimistic about. 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:23.960 M and A. 0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:28.920 They're optimistic about economic growth. Where they're uncertain is tariffs. 0:13:29.240 --> 0:13:32.520 So they have to plan for resiliency. They're basically building 0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:35.000 resilience systems because they don't know what's going. 0:13:34.960 --> 0:13:35.800 To happen on tariffs. 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:38.360 I actually think and I hope, that the Supreme Court 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:41.240 may take away the IEP authority. I don't think that 0:13:41.360 --> 0:13:44.600 law was written for tariffs. It's a sanctions law. We'll 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:46.480 find out and maybe even later today, I don't know 0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:48.720 when the court's going to rule, but that's a tool 0:13:48.800 --> 0:13:52.040 the president's been using far beyond Congress's intents. 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:53.320 In my that's my opinion. 0:13:54.240 --> 0:13:56.600 But if that happens, then he'll have to go to 0:13:56.640 --> 0:13:58.960 other trade laws that aren't as easy to use, like 0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:02.080 the IEPA laws have been used, and so that takes 0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:04.240 away some uncertainty. But we're going to have trade uncertainty, 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:07.840 tear if uncertainty. But there's good regulatory posture, we have 0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:08.960 good tax policy. 0:14:09.240 --> 0:14:10.360 There's gonna be a lot of M and A. 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:12.680 So I think there's it's we're driving the car with 0:14:12.720 --> 0:14:14.640 two feet. We got one foot on the gas, one 0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:17.760 put on the brake, and that's what That's what CEOs 0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:19.840 are trying to plan for. How do they respond, how 0:14:19.880 --> 0:14:22.840 do they seize the opportunities and plan for the uncertainties. 0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:25.200 We just had the head of General Atlantic on who 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:28.120 said that resilience to him, means diversifying, and it means 0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:29.880 diversifying away from the United States. 0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:32.760 This is the what if scenario. 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:35.000 In the meantime, businesses have to plan how much are 0:14:35.000 --> 0:14:37.440 the people you're talking to moving capital flows outside of 0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:39.480 the US in a way that concerns you. 0:14:39.560 --> 0:14:40.480 I worry about that. 0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.080 I worry more frankly about a long term debt posture 0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:45.000 and the fact that we're not doing anything to deal 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:46.640 with our debt, which means our dollar. 0:14:47.160 --> 0:14:48.040 So I think there. 0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:49.840 Are things that are that are good that are happening, 0:14:50.040 --> 0:14:52.160 Say the stable coins being deployed. 0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:53.960 That's good for the dollar. If we got our fiscal 0:14:53.960 --> 0:14:55.240 house in order, that'd be great for the dollar. 0:14:55.240 --> 0:14:57.560 But I don't see the populist politics lending itself to 0:14:57.600 --> 0:15:00.480 doing those things. But we do have the best economy 0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:03.320 in the world. We have the deepest, most liquid capital markets, 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:05.160 so I still think we're going to be there. We 0:15:05.200 --> 0:15:07.800 have better regulations than what we had in the last administration. 0:15:07.840 --> 0:15:11.040 We have good tax policy. But there's a lot of uncertainty. 0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:14.760 So yeah, it bothers me when I hear companies feel 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:17.320 they need to diversify away from America because of the uncertainty. 0:15:17.760 --> 0:15:20.000 But if we get this uncertainty dealt with, if the 0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:23.400 uncertainty tamps down, then I think we'll be back in business. 0:15:23.440 --> 0:15:25.480 So overall, I think we're going to be okay. At 0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:27.160 the end of the day. I think our institutions stick. 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:29.360 Can we finish on the debt market you took us 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:32.200 that there's a sale off in today's session. Look four 0:15:32.400 --> 0:15:34.760 thirty on a ten year bonb yeld. It's not a crisis. 0:15:34.800 --> 0:15:37.040 I'm not going to pretend it is. But the direction 0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:39.640 of travel is just to push more and push more. 0:15:39.840 --> 0:15:42.160 And it's not just America anymore, that's right, Abe, Japan 0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:44.400 is leaning in the same direction, and that'll loosened things 0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:45.080 up as well. 0:15:45.360 --> 0:15:46.560 What do you think we're building up to? 0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:49.240 What I worry about our auction failures. 0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:52.920 They won't technically be a failure because they'll make the primary. 0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:53.560 Dealers buy the paper. 0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:56.320 But I worry if we see that an auction would 0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:59.280 have failed, that what the spike and yields will look like, 0:15:59.360 --> 0:16:01.520 and then what that does to our fiscal policy. So 0:16:01.640 --> 0:16:03.640 if we could get ahead of our fiscal policy problems 0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:06.960 by reforming our entitlement programs prospectively for the X generation 0:16:07.040 --> 0:16:09.440 on down, I think we could calm the bomb markets 0:16:09.440 --> 0:16:11.680 down and we could be the flight to quality. Again, 0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:14.520 We're not there and our politics aren't there yet, so 0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:16.680 because that's not anywhere near. 0:16:16.720 --> 0:16:17.840 Being politically viable. 0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:20.080 You have these kinds of things, then you have all 0:16:20.120 --> 0:16:22.240 this terarif uncertainty, all the things that are happening there 0:16:22.440 --> 0:16:23.880 that are going to spook to markets. I don't know 0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:25.880 if this is a Japan story today or if there's 0:16:25.880 --> 0:16:27.640 a denmarket. I don't know what this is about. But 0:16:28.440 --> 0:16:30.480 if we had our fiscal outs in order, I don't 0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:31.920 think you'd see these kinds of shocks. 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:36.000 Stay with us multiple impeg Savannah's coming up off to this, 0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:48.680 the President threatening to impose additional tariffs on some European 0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:53.520 allies supporting Denmark while he pursues Greenland. The Finland President 0:16:53.640 --> 0:16:56.320 Alexanders Stoop joins U snaffle moments the President, good to 0:16:56.320 --> 0:16:58.400 see it, nice to say, thanks for always making some 0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:01.040 time for us. Look, I would never traditionally start a 0:17:01.080 --> 0:17:03.840 conversation like this with the head of state, but given 0:17:03.920 --> 0:17:06.280 the news flow and the headlines and the pictures of 0:17:06.320 --> 0:17:08.960