WEBVTT - Jobs, Hiring, Tech, and Real Estate 0:00:00.840 --> 0:00:04.000 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:05.240 my co host Matt Miller. 0:00:05.640 --> 0:00:09.720 Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:13.600 and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moven news. 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:17.279 Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever 0:00:17.360 --> 0:00:20.000 you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot Com, slash 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:22.840 podcastle Scaleup Talk. Dan Eyes he knows all this stuff 0:00:22.920 --> 0:00:25.439 because he's a tech analyst. He does that stuff for 0:00:25.560 --> 0:00:28.760 web Bush Securities. He joins his via Zoom sporting his 0:00:28.840 --> 0:00:32.959 Penn State regalia there, which we appreciate as always. Hey Dan, 0:00:33.040 --> 0:00:34.800 thanks so much for joining us. I got to start 0:00:34.800 --> 0:00:38.959 with Tesla. I mean, Elon changes prices on his cars 0:00:38.960 --> 0:00:41.280 like most people change socks. I thought this was a 0:00:41.320 --> 0:00:43.800 little bit more to the downside, a little bit more scientific, 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:46.320 because I want to go to the issue which I 0:00:46.320 --> 0:00:49.159 asked Matt. I'd love to get your thoughts, Dan, how 0:00:49.200 --> 0:00:54.200 do you model out like real demand for electric vehicles? 0:00:56.320 --> 0:00:58.560 Look, I mean if you look at the price cards, 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:02.360 no doubt this one. I think surprise the street. I 0:01:02.400 --> 0:01:04.840 mean it surprises us a bit right in terms of 0:01:05.280 --> 0:01:07.880 we believe about ninety five percent of the price cards 0:01:07.920 --> 0:01:12.759 in the rearview mirror. Now, from an elasticity perspective, growth 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:14.880 is sort of steady state. What I really view in 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:17.679 that sort of thirty to forty percent ban so in 0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:20.360 terms of year of year of growth. But when you 0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:22.600 look at some of these cuts, look, it's from an 0:01:22.600 --> 0:01:25.920 inventory perspective in the US they need to right now 0:01:26.000 --> 0:01:30.759 focus on volumes over just holding the line on prices. 0:01:30.800 --> 0:01:32.520 And that's really what we're seeing in terms of this 0:01:32.640 --> 0:01:33.840 Yin Yang play out. 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:39.280 So they're basically trying to take or hold as much 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:44.040 market share as they can, imagine as these UAW strikes 0:01:44.080 --> 0:01:45.880 kind of free customers out. Yesterday, I was talking to 0:01:45.920 --> 0:01:50.040 a dealer who said, and he owns Ford GM as 0:01:50.040 --> 0:01:53.560 well as Delantis stores, and he said, even if they 0:01:53.600 --> 0:01:56.440 had inventory of say you're looking for a Ford Ranger 0:01:56.440 --> 0:01:59.960 and they have one, customers are already worried about the 0:02:00.160 --> 0:02:06.040 strike affecting parts, about the strike affecting build quality, and 0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:09.919 they're already looking, you know, let's go look at a 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:13.280 Nissan Frontier or a Toyota Tacoma instead. So do you 0:02:13.360 --> 0:02:15.600 do you see the strike already having effects on Tesla 0:02:15.639 --> 0:02:18.079 competitors definitely. 0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:20.480 I mean we've seen it even as of the last 0:02:20.560 --> 0:02:24.160 even two weeks ago. I mean because the worry here 0:02:24.160 --> 0:02:26.480 and look that's always say it's such a debacle in 0:02:26.600 --> 0:02:30.360 Detroit in terms of this UAW strike because it was 0:02:30.400 --> 0:02:34.040 doing for consumers looking at alternatives. And when I believe 0:02:34.360 --> 0:02:37.600 if this lasts another two three weeks, this starts to 0:02:37.680 --> 0:02:41.480 have a pretty massive ripple effect even twenty twenty four 0:02:42.000 --> 0:02:45.360 from the EV lineup. And who benefits there. It's Tessa, 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:48.880 it's Ridian, it's far and auto makers, and I think 0:02:48.919 --> 0:02:51.760 that's the frustration right now for a bar and Farling. 0:02:52.639 --> 0:02:52.880 Yep. 0:02:53.040 --> 0:02:56.200 Interesting. I mean I just bought the bmw X three 0:02:56.280 --> 0:02:58.000 met and I just went to look and see what 0:02:58.040 --> 0:02:59.760 the the EV offerings are. 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:00.000 There. 0:03:00.320 --> 0:03:02.880 Huge premiums they wanted over and I'm like, I'm not 0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:04.240 paying a premium just to say. 0:03:04.400 --> 0:03:06.920 Massive premiums to make a purchase now. And then on 0:03:07.000 --> 0:03:08.560 the other on the other side of that, you do 0:03:08.680 --> 0:03:14.520 get a seventy five dollars yeah, tax credit credit, and 0:03:14.520 --> 0:03:16.959 and then you'll get another one for probably two grand 0:03:17.080 --> 0:03:19.880 from New Jersey, so all in about ten grand back. 0:03:20.280 --> 0:03:22.679 That's the math doesn't work right now, all right? Hey, 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:24.640 So let's step back, Dan, you cover you know, a 0:03:24.680 --> 0:03:27.320 big swath of the tech space here. We got interest 0:03:27.360 --> 0:03:30.080 rates to my friend, continuing to go higher. That's got 0:03:30.160 --> 0:03:32.400 to be tough on the valuation call. How do you 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:36.080 put some of your your tech bullishness in the context 0:03:36.080 --> 0:03:39.240 of these rising these rising rates rates we haven't seen 0:03:39.280 --> 0:03:40.200 since two thousand and seven. 0:03:41.360 --> 0:03:43.680 Yeah, I mean, look, no doubt it's caused white knuckles, 0:03:43.680 --> 0:03:45.880 and we've seen it with tax stocks on the pressure 0:03:46.520 --> 0:03:48.480 I mean, Paul Matt, I just kind of view it 0:03:49.200 --> 0:03:52.440 all all of our checks. Fundamentally speaking, I think we 0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:54.840 go into a three cure earning the season. That's going 0:03:54.960 --> 0:04:00.920 to be pretty significant surprise at the upside across cloud, software, 0:04:01.720 --> 0:04:04.680 digital advertising, I think on the chip side as well. 0:04:05.240 --> 0:04:08.480 So you'll you'll see this and maybe a bit overshadow 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:10.440 on the near term. But I believe we go into 0:04:10.480 --> 0:04:13.000 the next three to six months and this is more 0:04:13.040 --> 0:04:15.720 of a golden opportunity to buy tech rather than time 0:04:15.760 --> 0:04:18.960 to fear it on sort of macro worries, I mean 0:04:19.040 --> 0:04:22.440 that that continues to be We're handholding clients through this. 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:27.280 I will say that tech so uh, I've just charted 0:04:27.279 --> 0:04:31.640 out the Nasdaq YEP, and if you put that up 0:04:31.680 --> 0:04:34.919 against the US tenure, you'll see that as rates rise, 0:04:35.000 --> 0:04:39.640 even though the Nasdaq wants to rally, still it's pulling down. 0:04:39.600 --> 0:04:40.680 Those tech stocks. 0:04:41.200 --> 0:04:44.159 So you know, if rates continue to climb, that's no 0:04:44.480 --> 0:04:49.919 bueno for for stocks. And if inflation comes down. You 0:04:49.920 --> 0:04:51.880 know when it was on its way up and that 0:04:52.080 --> 0:04:56.120 was fattening margins. When inflation comes down, do margins get 0:04:56.240 --> 0:04:56.880 under pressure? 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:01.480 Look, I mean theory from a high level, you could 0:05:01.480 --> 0:05:04.719 say that, but if what's actually happening is, you know, 0:05:04.839 --> 0:05:08.839 supply chains normalizing. You look at AI and we talked 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:11.520 as the biggest transformation from a tech perspective in the 0:05:11.560 --> 0:05:15.200 last thirty is it's a huge talent and you're actually 0:05:15.240 --> 0:05:18.839 now starting to see just more and more efficiencies throughout 0:05:18.880 --> 0:05:22.279 these software companies and supply chains. So I actually think 0:05:22.960 --> 0:05:24.480 this is a talent. And look in a lot of 0:05:24.520 --> 0:05:27.279 these companies, they have more cash than some countries right 0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:29.560 in terms of they don't need to rely on the 0:05:29.640 --> 0:05:31.599 debt markets. I think M and A is going to 0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:35.000 continue to accelerate. And I just view this as sort 0:05:35.000 --> 0:05:38.440 of the time where I think tech gets stronger despite 0:05:38.440 --> 0:05:42.040 maybe macro clouding it, as many of the Bears, right, 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:44.120 I mean they've they've called ten of the last two 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:46.240 downturns the last twenty years. 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:49.560 Hey, Dan, let's let's switch gears to another name. I 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:52.400 know you do a lot of work on Apple. What 0:05:52.480 --> 0:05:55.120 can you tell us about this early rollout of the 0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:59.719 Apple iPhone fifteen? How's it going as a meeting expectations? 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:01.560 What are your thoughts? 0:06:02.480 --> 0:06:04.359 I mean I can tell you even as of checks 0:06:04.440 --> 0:06:07.920 this week in Asia, right now ahead of plan it's 0:06:07.920 --> 0:06:13.159 about ten to ten eleven twelve percent above iPhone fourteen. 0:06:14.080 --> 0:06:16.960 China has actually been strong if you could sell through, 0:06:17.080 --> 0:06:19.960 is there? And despite what'll call it the too hot 0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:22.440 to handle those situations terms the iPhone and fifteen the 0:06:22.480 --> 0:06:25.000 software rollout, which will which will fix that? Look, it 0:06:25.040 --> 0:06:28.799 comes down to just if you get the promotions and carriers, 0:06:29.240 --> 0:06:31.600 it's a no brain. I mean a lot of customers 0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:36.160 right now they're essentially trading in again iPhone fifteens for free. 0:06:37.360 --> 0:06:39.720 What are you telling? What are you telling clients here? 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:42.559 This is kind of the best trade here in tech? 0:06:42.600 --> 0:06:45.160 From your list, I. 0:06:45.080 --> 0:06:48.600 Think the best trade is probably Microsoft into earnings. 0:06:48.680 --> 0:06:49.000 You know that. 0:06:49.800 --> 0:06:53.760 I think software? If I look at Microsoft, Google, an Amazon, 0:06:53.960 --> 0:06:56.960 those three because of what's happened on cloud and these 0:06:57.000 --> 0:07:01.480 hyperscale buildouts. I think that continues to really be the 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:05.280 trade here. And even though look, I mean the New 0:07:05.320 --> 0:07:08.279 York City cab drivers barish on tech and earning. So 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:11.120 I think that sets up for what I view is 0:07:11.160 --> 0:07:15.040 just a very strong rally into year end, despite opposite 0:07:15.720 --> 0:07:19.760 Macro ten year Jitters All right, Dan. 0:07:19.680 --> 0:07:21.720 Well, actually real quick, I'm just looking at the background 0:07:21.800 --> 0:07:23.680 of his little zoom set up there. I see a 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:26.360 lot in your sports paraphernalia. With the Giants. I got 0:07:26.480 --> 0:07:29.920 asked a question, do the Giants have a quarterback? 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:32.240 Look? 0:07:32.280 --> 0:07:34.640 I mean that's they have a running back, right, and 0:07:34.960 --> 0:07:37.080 I think the Achilles heel. It's just I just don't 0:07:37.120 --> 0:07:40.520 know if Jones is that quarterback that's gonna get us there. 0:07:40.560 --> 0:07:43.120 And also you have an offensive line that is like 0:07:43.200 --> 0:07:43.920 Swiss Jeeves. 0:07:45.120 --> 0:07:46.680 But we've got a quarterback. We've got to get him 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:48.960 back on the field. That is, of course Aaron Rodgers. 0:07:50.320 --> 0:07:53.800 Oh excuse him, Dan, excuse me? So that's the Jets. Yeah, 0:07:53.800 --> 0:07:56.640 that's the Jets. That's sorry, Well, nobody in. 0:07:56.600 --> 0:07:58.400 New York has a quarterback then, right. 0:07:58.600 --> 0:08:00.760 You're exactly, well, we don't know about it doesn't matter. 0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:02.600 Let's let that go. He's got a job to do. 0:08:02.680 --> 0:08:05.240 Dan i'ves web Bush Security Senior analys He covers all 0:08:05.240 --> 0:08:07.120 the tech. We appreciate getting a few minutes of this time. 0:08:07.240 --> 0:08:08.280 Big Penn State fan. 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:13.000 You're listening to the team Ken's are live program Bloomberg 0:08:13.040 --> 0:08:16.400 Markets weekdays at ten am eastering on Bloomberg dot com, 0:08:16.480 --> 0:08:19.640 the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen 0:08:19.680 --> 0:08:21.960 on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 0:08:23.160 --> 0:08:25.320 You know, we had a big revision to last month's 0:08:26.400 --> 0:08:29.760 jobs number. Yeah, and you put the revising a bigger 0:08:29.800 --> 0:08:32.040 beat and then a huge beat today. So that's five. 0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:34.400 I'm doing a math. Five hundred and sixty three thousand 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:36.600 jobs added to the US pay roll over the last 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:39.000 couple of months. Who are these people and who's hiring 0:08:39.000 --> 0:08:41.000 all them? So let's talk to somebody who does this 0:08:41.080 --> 0:08:45.559 stuff for real. Julia Pollock, chief economists at ZIP Recruiter. Boy, 0:08:45.600 --> 0:08:47.600 they're going to know what's happening. Julia, thanks so much 0:08:47.640 --> 0:08:53.160 for joining us. Number one. Who's hiring all these people? Well? 0:08:53.200 --> 0:08:57.680 This report shows job growth pretty much across the board. Leisure, hospitality, 0:08:58.040 --> 0:09:03.040 healthcare remains very strong. Vasional business services were strong. There's 0:09:03.120 --> 0:09:07.760 almost no area where there's weakness except the information sector. 0:09:07.840 --> 0:09:11.400 That sector has lost two point five percent of its 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:14.720 employees over the past year. It's the glaring exception. 0:09:14.880 --> 0:09:17.280 Wait, what's the information Are we in the information sector? 0:09:18.120 --> 0:09:24.439 We are all the information sector. Yes, it's tech broadcasters, 0:09:24.840 --> 0:09:25.320 et cetera. 0:09:26.160 --> 0:09:32.959 Boy, John Tucker, you're looking at me for so, Julia, 0:09:33.120 --> 0:09:35.079 you know one hundred and fifty I guess one hundred 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:37.880 and seventy thousand was the or one hundred and sixty 0:09:38.040 --> 0:09:41.160 one hundred thousand was the estimate. Why were the economists 0:09:41.200 --> 0:09:43.160 so wrong? What are the economists getting wrong? 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:48.000 Well, you know, there's something called the surprise index, and 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:50.200 it has been showing that we've been wrong for over 0:09:50.200 --> 0:09:54.280 a year. The economy keeps surprising to the upside. And 0:09:54.320 --> 0:09:58.280 that's because our traditional understanding of gravity of you know, 0:09:58.679 --> 0:10:03.160 forces in the economy is that when the FED raises 0:10:03.200 --> 0:10:05.920 interest rates, that's going to slow economic activity down. And 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:09.120 I mean, what doesn't need to explain it. Any ordinary 0:10:09.120 --> 0:10:13.040 American can understand this. When rates go up, you think 0:10:13.040 --> 0:10:16.120 twice about borrowing to open a business or build a 0:10:16.200 --> 0:10:16.920 home or whatever. 0:10:16.960 --> 0:10:17.240 It is. 0:10:18.040 --> 0:10:21.160 The issue here is that well, activity has cooled in 0:10:21.240 --> 0:10:25.960 some areas, but there have been offsetting sources of strength 0:10:26.200 --> 0:10:31.560 that have caused the overall picture to remain very very rosy. 0:10:32.240 --> 0:10:37.959 So does this mean that the Fed has to raise 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:39.480 rates again? Julia? 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:41.199 I mean, you know, you're an economist. 0:10:41.600 --> 0:10:46.160 That seems to be their goal raised race, slow down businesses, 0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:48.360 slow down hiring, slow down spending. 0:10:48.720 --> 0:10:50.120 Is that is that going to happen? 0:10:50.920 --> 0:10:54.800 So for the last three months, those PCE inflation reports 0:10:54.800 --> 0:10:59.600 have been very encouraging, and they precore PC inflation at 0:10:59.720 --> 0:11:03.640 just two percent over the past three months. And so 0:11:04.160 --> 0:11:08.959 if we are really within kind of you know, Stone's 0:11:09.200 --> 0:11:13.240 throw of the Fed's inflation target, looking at the numbers 0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:15.880 that it cares about most, perhaps they won't need to 0:11:16.000 --> 0:11:18.800 raise rates again. You know, it's not their goal here. 0:11:18.880 --> 0:11:22.079 Isn't to reduce employment. It isn't to raise unemployment. It's 0:11:22.080 --> 0:11:25.560 to cool inflation. And if that can happen without pain 0:11:25.640 --> 0:11:27.320 in the live market, so much the better. 0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:31.480 So, Julia, what are the employers that you guys talked 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:34.000 to a ZIP recruiter? What are they telling you about 0:11:34.040 --> 0:11:37.760 their ability to hire people? Are they finding the people 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:40.079 they want? Do they have to pay up to get them. 0:11:40.080 --> 0:11:42.679 What are the key drivers for the employers? 0:11:43.800 --> 0:11:46.200 So we are about to release an employer survey, our 0:11:46.240 --> 0:11:49.760 new annual Employer Survey, and our pain is a very 0:11:50.040 --> 0:11:54.160 very clear picture that employers are still struggling. It is 0:11:54.320 --> 0:11:58.040 not easy out there to recruit and retain talent. Their 0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:02.640 biggest difficulty is not not being able to find qualified candidates, 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:06.439 but over forty percent say they can't find candidates at all. 0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:09.960 And then once they do find candidates, they're having a 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:12.840 really tough time making connections with those candidates. You know, 0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:15.800 it was thirty seven percent of the time candidates are 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:17.319 ghosting their interviews. 0:12:17.520 --> 0:12:20.600 Wow, So what are the kids today? Are just the 0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:22.840 people that are looking for jobs today? How important is 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:26.079 that whole hybrid model where I'm going to wear to 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:29.679 work from home? How important is that today? 0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:33.960 Well, the five day in office work week is effectively dead. 0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:37.120 Only sixty nobody told us. 0:12:38.200 --> 0:12:43.600 Well in our survey, employers say that only sixteen percent 0:12:43.760 --> 0:12:46.840 of their office jobs are being done in office all 0:12:46.880 --> 0:12:49.880 the time five days a week. So most employers are 0:12:49.920 --> 0:12:53.960 providing some form of flexibility at least one two three 0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:56.960 days when workers can work from home. Hybrid is the 0:12:57.000 --> 0:12:57.640 new normal. 0:12:58.600 --> 0:13:02.040 Everyone has told us by Yes, every day someone. 0:13:01.760 --> 0:13:03.360 Tells us that, So don't worry. 0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:07.719 Paul's just pushing back against it. I look at while 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:10.040 in the terminal we have E can Go, which is 0:13:10.040 --> 0:13:12.360 a pretty cool function, and you can choose non farm 0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:15.080 payrolls from the drop down menu. Highly recommend it and 0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:19.000 look at the breakdown. So it's as you said, Julia, 0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:24.440 leisure and hospitality a huge driver of this last report. 0:13:24.600 --> 0:13:28.520 And then also government is a big driver in terms 0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:32.160 of adding jobs. Where do you see this going. Construction 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:33.959 kind of shrank a little bit. Where do you see 0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:35.760 this going as we head into the holiday season. 0:13:36.880 --> 0:13:39.200 Well, you know, that's a good news story, not a 0:13:39.240 --> 0:13:41.280 bad news story. I think some people are interpreting that 0:13:41.320 --> 0:13:45.040 as the economy only creating low paying jobs and leasion hospitality. 0:13:45.080 --> 0:13:49.840 That's not true. With today's report, every major sector has 0:13:49.880 --> 0:13:53.560 now recovered to pre pandemic levels except leisure hospitality, which 0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:55.760 thank goodness, is at least catching up and moving in 0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:56.400 the right direction. 0:13:57.240 --> 0:13:57.600 You know, the. 0:13:57.559 --> 0:14:02.800 Government, local government school rules have been short staffed. They 0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:05.800 started the last school year with lots of vacancies. They 0:14:05.800 --> 0:14:07.760 had to do the same thing again this year, so 0:14:07.840 --> 0:14:11.760 it's good to see them finally making some headway, and 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:15.719 the private sector still posted the lion's dare of the jobs. 0:14:16.360 --> 0:14:20.000 So we had average hourly earnings grow four point two 0:14:20.080 --> 0:14:23.360 percent year every year. You can make the argument that 0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:25.520 number should actually be higher if there's so many, if 0:14:25.520 --> 0:14:28.160 it's so hard to find, people want to just pay more. 0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:34.000 Yes, So on average wages have grown eighteen percent now 0:14:34.160 --> 0:14:37.480 since the pandemic. Prices have also grown eighteen percent since 0:14:37.480 --> 0:14:40.840 the pandemic. So from the perspective of most workers, it's 0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:44.920 been a wash. They're just treading water and they got 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:49.760 used to real wage growths between twenty thirteen and twenty nineteen, 0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:52.000 when they actually saw their wages grow about one point 0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:55.320 four percent faster than inflation each year. So they're wondering 0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:59.480 why they're not managing to get a little bit more 0:14:59.520 --> 0:15:03.800 each year. I think that wages could still do some 0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:06.400 catching up over the coming years, given how tight the 0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:07.120 slave market is. 0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:10.560 All right, Julia, thanks so much. We appreciate that as always, 0:15:10.640 --> 0:15:12.760 Julia Pollock from Zip Recruiter. 0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:16.480 You're listening to the tape cans Are Live program Bloomberg 0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:20.200 Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio. The 0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:23.480 tune in app Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App. 0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:26.320 You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:31.400 flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:35.200 Let's break down this job's number because it deserves some 0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:38.840 more attention. Here. Tom Gimble, he is with us. He 0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:40.560 knows a thing or two about this market. He's the 0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:43.960 CEO of LaSalle Network, and Tom, I'm just going to say, 0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:45.239 you know, here's my analysis. 0:15:45.360 --> 0:15:49.080 Wow, I would agree. And just before we get rolling 0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:50.760 on this, for the record, I went to University of 0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:53.880 Colorado and coach Prime. I'm just so we're going to 0:15:53.920 --> 0:15:56.400 talk football. Let's just talk about who's really on the upside. 0:15:56.720 --> 0:15:57.280 That's right. 0:15:58.880 --> 0:16:01.640 No, this number is fantastic. I think a lot of 0:16:01.680 --> 0:16:04.840 it's propped up by the government quite frankly, which gives 0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:07.760 me a little cause for concern of when that's bigot 0:16:07.800 --> 0:16:12.400 finally gets turned off. But it's definitely a good sign 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:15.560 that we're not ready to land this economy just yet. 0:16:15.960 --> 0:16:18.840 So where's all the impetus coming from? We were talking 0:16:18.920 --> 0:16:21.200 yesterday about the Inflation Reduction Act, and of course we 0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:24.000 had the Chips Act. Is that money flowing? Is that 0:16:24.040 --> 0:16:25.040 money hiring people. 0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:29.320 I think it's the initial infrastructure package. I was talking 0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:36.400 to group down in Texas, that construction company, and that 0:16:36.480 --> 0:16:39.000 a couple of years ago, seventy percent of their business 0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:42.200 was I had followed up on a story that I 0:16:42.200 --> 0:16:44.400 had read and talked to them that seventy percent of 0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:49.040 their business used to be private and now seventy percent 0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:51.760 is public sector and working for the government. And so 0:16:51.880 --> 0:16:54.720 I think that the infrastructure is really bearing this thing down. 0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:55.760 It's getting a little crazy. 0:16:56.080 --> 0:17:00.200 Can you explain what I guess labor hoarding is. I think 0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:02.040 it's really a what is it? Indeed, do you think 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:02.520 it's a thing. 0:17:03.480 --> 0:17:08.400 Well, I think the concept of hiring people and not 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:12.240 necessarily needing to use them because the talent may come 0:17:12.280 --> 0:17:14.240 and play at a later date. If that's what you're 0:17:14.240 --> 0:17:18.199 referring to. And I think that the situation with what 0:17:18.359 --> 0:17:21.800 big Tech used to do in that capacity of hiring 0:17:21.840 --> 0:17:25.960 people and not yet needing them, I don't think that 0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:29.440 it was in wide abundance. I think it's happened from 0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:32.320 time to time. The real challenge that we have if 0:17:32.359 --> 0:17:34.840 you look at the Jold's report and if you look 0:17:34.840 --> 0:17:38.119 at the openings versus the number of people in the 0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:42.000 market and looking and that discrepancy. What it really says is, 0:17:42.520 --> 0:17:45.119 and we've talked about this before on Jobs Friday, is 0:17:45.520 --> 0:17:47.800 the skills gap and where we're missing it, and we're 0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:52.439 missing it in two areas, technology and blue collar labor, 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:56.240 and we've got it's all coming at a time that 0:17:56.600 --> 0:17:59.920 people are picking political fights instead of doing what's necessary 0:17:59.920 --> 0:18:03.879 for the economy, and that's immigration, both on legal and 0:18:03.880 --> 0:18:06.600 illegal immigration south of the border, which affects the blue 0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:11.960 collar and European immigration, which really affects the technological gap 0:18:12.280 --> 0:18:14.399 that we have. And we need both of those areas 0:18:14.440 --> 0:18:18.600 if we want to continue our dominance as a political 0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:20.359 and capitalistic leader. 0:18:20.440 --> 0:18:25.320 So wait, you're not saying you're not railing against immigration 0:18:26.119 --> 0:18:28.639 complaining that our jobs get stolen, but saying we need 0:18:28.640 --> 0:18:30.840 that immigration to fuel our growth. 0:18:31.000 --> 0:18:33.240 One hundred percent. I mean, look at everyone wants to 0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:35.800 compare what we have going on with infrastructure to the 0:18:35.840 --> 0:18:38.400 New Deal. And when we had the New Deal, who 0:18:38.400 --> 0:18:41.280 did that? Immigrants? And so you know, when you have 0:18:41.400 --> 0:18:44.000 that and the people willing to throw a hammer and 0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:46.400 do the blue collar work, and we don't have those 0:18:46.480 --> 0:18:48.919 people now. Do I think that immigration south of the 0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:53.280 border and letting you illegal. No, I'm not propoting. I'm 0:18:53.320 --> 0:18:55.480 not a proponent of that. What I do think we 0:18:55.520 --> 0:18:59.520 need to do is come to a conclusive agreement on 0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:01.920 what's the best way to get people in to keep 0:19:01.920 --> 0:19:05.520 the economy fueled, which goes to payroll taxes, which goes 0:19:05.560 --> 0:19:08.280 to companies being able to accomplish things, which leads to 0:19:08.280 --> 0:19:12.440 trickle down economics where you have more suppliers to what's 0:19:12.480 --> 0:19:15.399 going on. We've just got this intersection that everybody thinks 0:19:15.440 --> 0:19:18.400 that the economy is going to keep going forever. We've 0:19:18.440 --> 0:19:22.120 got the UAW talking about thirty two hours of work 0:19:22.160 --> 0:19:25.680 for forty hours of pay. You know that's entitlement talk. 0:19:26.320 --> 0:19:27.760 That's not capitalistic talk. 0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:28.840 You know. 0:19:29.680 --> 0:19:31.560 Well, I just wanted to pull up he can he 0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:34.159 Can Go, which is a function that I've been playing 0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:38.440 with on the Bloomberg terminal. It's a very cool way 0:19:38.480 --> 0:19:42.760 to chart job games, and Eca n go is the 0:19:42.760 --> 0:19:44.480 way you can pull it up if can look at 0:19:44.480 --> 0:19:46.520 a number of data points with it. But I can 0:19:46.600 --> 0:19:50.040 see tom that we added a lot more jobs in 0:19:50.440 --> 0:19:53.240 leisure and hospitality in the last month than we have 0:19:53.359 --> 0:19:57.280 in previous months. We added more jobs well, government workers. 0:19:57.320 --> 0:19:59.560 We added more government workers than we did last month. 0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:03.639 We had more trade, transportation and utilities workers than we 0:20:03.680 --> 0:20:05.720 did last month. What do you think about the trends 0:20:06.320 --> 0:20:10.520 about the sectors that you've seen move and how do 0:20:10.560 --> 0:20:13.240 you see it going forward into the holiday shopping season. 0:20:13.960 --> 0:20:19.159 Well, I think that the consumer spending, I think is 0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:23.919 going to be decent, and I think when and I 0:20:23.960 --> 0:20:28.640 know that there's talk about where the individual credit problems 0:20:28.680 --> 0:20:31.679 are and what we're looking at, but what we've got is, 0:20:34.600 --> 0:20:37.520 you know, what's the expression that he who knows, he 0:20:37.960 --> 0:20:40.760 who knows only his own generation remains always a child. 0:20:41.240 --> 0:20:43.320 And I think that we're looking at people that don't 0:20:43.359 --> 0:20:45.160 want to study history and don't want to look back, 0:20:45.200 --> 0:20:48.600 and we've got a couple of generations of people that 0:20:48.680 --> 0:20:52.919 think that if if we overspend, are what we have, 0:20:53.320 --> 0:20:55.080 the government's going to take care of us. And I 0:20:55.119 --> 0:20:57.119 think we're going to see that through the holiday season. 0:20:57.720 --> 0:21:00.720 And I haven't seen any information to tell me otherwise. 0:21:01.119 --> 0:21:04.120 I see the travel and hospitality, like you said, continues 0:21:04.160 --> 0:21:07.760 to hire. There's a shortage, and I'm in Chicago. I 0:21:07.840 --> 0:21:10.920 was in Denver last week and Charlotte and I saw 0:21:11.040 --> 0:21:13.960 signs in every restaurant that they're looking for people and hiring, 0:21:14.480 --> 0:21:18.280 and and you have situations where people companies still want 0:21:18.280 --> 0:21:20.440 to you know, look at California, they want to raise 0:21:20.480 --> 0:21:22.959 the hourly rate for ret They are raising the hourly 0:21:23.080 --> 0:21:27.959