1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:05,240 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. 3 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:09,720 Speaker 2: Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 4 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moven news. 5 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,279 Speaker 1: Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever 6 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot Com, slash 7 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: podcastle Scaleup Talk. Dan Eyes he knows all this stuff 8 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:25,439 Speaker 1: because he's a tech analyst. He does that stuff for 9 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: web Bush Securities. He joins his via Zoom sporting his 10 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:32,959 Speaker 1: Penn State regalia there, which we appreciate as always. Hey Dan, 11 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. I got to start 12 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:38,959 Speaker 1: with Tesla. I mean, Elon changes prices on his cars 13 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 1: like most people change socks. I thought this was a 14 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 1: little bit more to the downside, a little bit more scientific, 15 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 1: because I want to go to the issue which I 16 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:49,159 Speaker 1: asked Matt. I'd love to get your thoughts, Dan, how 17 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: do you model out like real demand for electric vehicles? 18 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 3: Look, I mean if you look at the price cards, 19 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 3: no doubt this one. I think surprise the street. I 20 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 3: mean it surprises us a bit right in terms of 21 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 3: we believe about ninety five percent of the price cards 22 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:12,759 Speaker 3: in the rearview mirror. Now, from an elasticity perspective, growth 23 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:14,880 Speaker 3: is sort of steady state. What I really view in 24 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:17,679 Speaker 3: that sort of thirty to forty percent ban so in 25 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 3: terms of year of year of growth. But when you 26 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 3: look at some of these cuts, look, it's from an 27 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 3: inventory perspective in the US they need to right now 28 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:30,759 Speaker 3: focus on volumes over just holding the line on prices. 29 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 3: And that's really what we're seeing in terms of this 30 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:33,840 Speaker 3: Yin Yang play out. 31 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 2: So they're basically trying to take or hold as much 32 00:01:39,319 --> 00:01:44,040 Speaker 2: market share as they can, imagine as these UAW strikes 33 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 2: kind of free customers out. Yesterday, I was talking to 34 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 2: a dealer who said, and he owns Ford GM as 35 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 2: well as Delantis stores, and he said, even if they 36 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 2: had inventory of say you're looking for a Ford Ranger 37 00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 2: and they have one, customers are already worried about the 38 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:06,040 Speaker 2: strike affecting parts, about the strike affecting build quality, and 39 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:09,919 Speaker 2: they're already looking, you know, let's go look at a 40 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 2: Nissan Frontier or a Toyota Tacoma instead. So do you 41 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 2: do you see the strike already having effects on Tesla 42 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:18,079 Speaker 2: competitors definitely. 43 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 3: I mean we've seen it even as of the last 44 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 3: even two weeks ago. I mean because the worry here 45 00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 3: and look that's always say it's such a debacle in 46 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:30,360 Speaker 3: Detroit in terms of this UAW strike because it was 47 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 3: doing for consumers looking at alternatives. And when I believe 48 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 3: if this lasts another two three weeks, this starts to 49 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 3: have a pretty massive ripple effect even twenty twenty four 50 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:45,360 Speaker 3: from the EV lineup. And who benefits there. It's Tessa, 51 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 3: it's Ridian, it's far and auto makers, and I think 52 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 3: that's the frustration right now for a bar and Farling. 53 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 4: Yep. 54 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 1: Interesting. I mean I just bought the bmw X three 55 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 1: met and I just went to look and see what 56 00:02:58,040 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 1: the the EV offerings are. 57 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 4: There. 58 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 1: Huge premiums they wanted over and I'm like, I'm not 59 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 1: paying a premium just to say. 60 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:06,920 Speaker 2: Massive premiums to make a purchase now. And then on 61 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 2: the other on the other side of that, you do 62 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 2: get a seventy five dollars yeah, tax credit credit, and 63 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:16,959 Speaker 2: and then you'll get another one for probably two grand 64 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 2: from New Jersey, so all in about ten grand back. 65 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:22,679 Speaker 1: That's the math doesn't work right now, all right? Hey, 66 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:24,640 Speaker 1: So let's step back, Dan, you cover you know, a 67 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: big swath of the tech space here. We got interest 68 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 1: rates to my friend, continuing to go higher. That's got 69 00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 1: to be tough on the valuation call. How do you 70 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 1: put some of your your tech bullishness in the context 71 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 1: of these rising these rising rates rates we haven't seen 72 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 1: since two thousand and seven. 73 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, no doubt it's caused white knuckles, 74 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 3: and we've seen it with tax stocks on the pressure 75 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 3: I mean, Paul Matt, I just kind of view it 76 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 3: all all of our checks. Fundamentally speaking, I think we 77 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 3: go into a three cure earning the season. That's going 78 00:03:54,960 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 3: to be pretty significant surprise at the upside across cloud, software, 79 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 3: digital advertising, I think on the chip side as well. 80 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 3: So you'll you'll see this and maybe a bit overshadow 81 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 3: on the near term. But I believe we go into 82 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 3: the next three to six months and this is more 83 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 3: of a golden opportunity to buy tech rather than time 84 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 3: to fear it on sort of macro worries, I mean 85 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 3: that that continues to be We're handholding clients through this. 86 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:27,280 Speaker 2: I will say that tech so uh, I've just charted 87 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 2: out the Nasdaq YEP, and if you put that up 88 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,919 Speaker 2: against the US tenure, you'll see that as rates rise, 89 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 2: even though the Nasdaq wants to rally, still it's pulling down. 90 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 1: Those tech stocks. 91 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:44,159 Speaker 2: So you know, if rates continue to climb, that's no 92 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:49,919 Speaker 2: bueno for for stocks. And if inflation comes down. You 93 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 2: know when it was on its way up and that 94 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 2: was fattening margins. When inflation comes down, do margins get 95 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 2: under pressure? 96 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:01,480 Speaker 3: Look, I mean theory from a high level, you could 97 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:04,719 Speaker 3: say that, but if what's actually happening is, you know, 98 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:08,839 Speaker 3: supply chains normalizing. You look at AI and we talked 99 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 3: as the biggest transformation from a tech perspective in the 100 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 3: last thirty is it's a huge talent and you're actually 101 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:18,839 Speaker 3: now starting to see just more and more efficiencies throughout 102 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:22,279 Speaker 3: these software companies and supply chains. So I actually think 103 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:24,480 Speaker 3: this is a talent. And look in a lot of 104 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:27,279 Speaker 3: these companies, they have more cash than some countries right 105 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 3: in terms of they don't need to rely on the 106 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:31,599 Speaker 3: debt markets. I think M and A is going to 107 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:35,000 Speaker 3: continue to accelerate. And I just view this as sort 108 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 3: of the time where I think tech gets stronger despite 109 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:42,040 Speaker 3: maybe macro clouding it, as many of the Bears, right, 110 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 3: I mean they've they've called ten of the last two 111 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:46,240 Speaker 3: downturns the last twenty years. 112 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 1: Hey, Dan, let's let's switch gears to another name. I 113 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 1: know you do a lot of work on Apple. What 114 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:55,120 Speaker 1: can you tell us about this early rollout of the 115 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:59,719 Speaker 1: Apple iPhone fifteen? How's it going as a meeting expectations? 116 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:01,560 Speaker 1: What are your thoughts? 117 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:04,359 Speaker 3: I mean I can tell you even as of checks 118 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 3: this week in Asia, right now ahead of plan it's 119 00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 3: about ten to ten eleven twelve percent above iPhone fourteen. 120 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 3: China has actually been strong if you could sell through, 121 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 3: is there? And despite what'll call it the too hot 122 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 3: to handle those situations terms the iPhone and fifteen the 123 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 3: software rollout, which will which will fix that? Look, it 124 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:28,799 Speaker 3: comes down to just if you get the promotions and carriers, 125 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:31,600 Speaker 3: it's a no brain. I mean a lot of customers 126 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:36,160 Speaker 3: right now they're essentially trading in again iPhone fifteens for free. 127 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:39,720 Speaker 1: What are you telling? What are you telling clients here? 128 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:42,559 Speaker 1: This is kind of the best trade here in tech? 129 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:45,160 Speaker 1: From your list, I. 130 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:48,600 Speaker 3: Think the best trade is probably Microsoft into earnings. 131 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 5: You know that. 132 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 3: I think software? If I look at Microsoft, Google, an Amazon, 133 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 3: those three because of what's happened on cloud and these 134 00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 3: hyperscale buildouts. I think that continues to really be the 135 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:05,280 Speaker 3: trade here. And even though look, I mean the New 136 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:08,279 Speaker 3: York City cab drivers barish on tech and earning. So 137 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 3: I think that sets up for what I view is 138 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 3: just a very strong rally into year end, despite opposite 139 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 3: Macro ten year Jitters All right, Dan. 140 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 1: Well, actually real quick, I'm just looking at the background 141 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:23,680 Speaker 1: of his little zoom set up there. I see a 142 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 1: lot in your sports paraphernalia. With the Giants. I got 143 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 1: asked a question, do the Giants have a quarterback? 144 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 4: Look? 145 00:07:32,280 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 3: I mean that's they have a running back, right, and 146 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 3: I think the Achilles heel. It's just I just don't 147 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 3: know if Jones is that quarterback that's gonna get us there. 148 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 3: And also you have an offensive line that is like 149 00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 3: Swiss Jeeves. 150 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 1: But we've got a quarterback. We've got to get him 151 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 1: back on the field. That is, of course Aaron Rodgers. 152 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 1: Oh excuse him, Dan, excuse me? So that's the Jets. Yeah, 153 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 1: that's the Jets. That's sorry, Well, nobody in. 154 00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 2: New York has a quarterback then, right. 155 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 1: You're exactly, well, we don't know about it doesn't matter. 156 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: Let's let that go. He's got a job to do. 157 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 1: Dan i'ves web Bush Security Senior analys He covers all 158 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 1: the tech. We appreciate getting a few minutes of this time. 159 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:08,280 Speaker 1: Big Penn State fan. 160 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 5: You're listening to the team Ken's are live program Bloomberg 161 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 5: Markets weekdays at ten am eastering on Bloomberg dot com, 162 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 5: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen 163 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:21,960 Speaker 5: on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 164 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 1: You know, we had a big revision to last month's 165 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:29,760 Speaker 1: jobs number. Yeah, and you put the revising a bigger 166 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 1: beat and then a huge beat today. So that's five. 167 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 1: I'm doing a math. Five hundred and sixty three thousand 168 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 1: jobs added to the US pay roll over the last 169 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 1: couple of months. Who are these people and who's hiring 170 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 1: all them? So let's talk to somebody who does this 171 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:45,559 Speaker 1: stuff for real. Julia Pollock, chief economists at ZIP Recruiter. Boy, 172 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:47,600 Speaker 1: they're going to know what's happening. Julia, thanks so much 173 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 1: for joining us. Number one. Who's hiring all these people? Well? 174 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:57,680 Speaker 6: This report shows job growth pretty much across the board. Leisure, hospitality, 175 00:08:58,040 --> 00:09:03,040 Speaker 6: healthcare remains very strong. Vasional business services were strong. There's 176 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:07,760 Speaker 6: almost no area where there's weakness except the information sector. 177 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 6: That sector has lost two point five percent of its 178 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:14,720 Speaker 6: employees over the past year. It's the glaring exception. 179 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 2: Wait, what's the information Are we in the information sector? 180 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:24,439 Speaker 6: We are all the information sector. Yes, it's tech broadcasters, 181 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:25,320 Speaker 6: et cetera. 182 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:32,959 Speaker 1: Boy, John Tucker, you're looking at me for so, Julia, 183 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:35,079 Speaker 1: you know one hundred and fifty I guess one hundred 184 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 1: and seventy thousand was the or one hundred and sixty 185 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 1: one hundred thousand was the estimate. Why were the economists 186 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 1: so wrong? What are the economists getting wrong? 187 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 6: Well, you know, there's something called the surprise index, and 188 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:50,200 Speaker 6: it has been showing that we've been wrong for over 189 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 6: a year. The economy keeps surprising to the upside. And 190 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 6: that's because our traditional understanding of gravity of you know, 191 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 6: forces in the economy is that when the FED raises 192 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 6: interest rates, that's going to slow economic activity down. And 193 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:09,120 Speaker 6: I mean, what doesn't need to explain it. Any ordinary 194 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 6: American can understand this. When rates go up, you think 195 00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 6: twice about borrowing to open a business or build a 196 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 6: home or whatever. 197 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 4: It is. 198 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 6: The issue here is that well, activity has cooled in 199 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 6: some areas, but there have been offsetting sources of strength 200 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:31,560 Speaker 6: that have caused the overall picture to remain very very rosy. 201 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:37,959 Speaker 2: So does this mean that the Fed has to raise 202 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 2: rates again? Julia? 203 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:41,199 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, you're an economist. 204 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 2: That seems to be their goal raised race, slow down businesses, 205 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 2: slow down hiring, slow down spending. 206 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 1: Is that is that going to happen? 207 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 6: So for the last three months, those PCE inflation reports 208 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 6: have been very encouraging, and they precore PC inflation at 209 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:03,640 Speaker 6: just two percent over the past three months. And so 210 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:08,959 Speaker 6: if we are really within kind of you know, Stone's 211 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:13,240 Speaker 6: throw of the Fed's inflation target, looking at the numbers 212 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 6: that it cares about most, perhaps they won't need to 213 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 6: raise rates again. You know, it's not their goal here. 214 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:22,079 Speaker 6: Isn't to reduce employment. It isn't to raise unemployment. It's 215 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:25,560 Speaker 6: to cool inflation. And if that can happen without pain 216 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:27,320 Speaker 6: in the live market, so much the better. 217 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:31,480 Speaker 1: So, Julia, what are the employers that you guys talked 218 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 1: to a ZIP recruiter? What are they telling you about 219 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 1: their ability to hire people? Are they finding the people 220 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,079 Speaker 1: they want? Do they have to pay up to get them. 221 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:42,679 Speaker 1: What are the key drivers for the employers? 222 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:46,200 Speaker 6: So we are about to release an employer survey, our 223 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 6: new annual Employer Survey, and our pain is a very 224 00:11:50,040 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 6: very clear picture that employers are still struggling. It is 225 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 6: not easy out there to recruit and retain talent. Their 226 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 6: biggest difficulty is not not being able to find qualified candidates, 227 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:06,439 Speaker 6: but over forty percent say they can't find candidates at all. 228 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:09,960 Speaker 6: And then once they do find candidates, they're having a 229 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 6: really tough time making connections with those candidates. You know, 230 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 6: it was thirty seven percent of the time candidates are 231 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:17,319 Speaker 6: ghosting their interviews. 232 00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:20,600 Speaker 1: Wow, So what are the kids today? Are just the 233 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 1: people that are looking for jobs today? How important is 234 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:26,079 Speaker 1: that whole hybrid model where I'm going to wear to 235 00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:29,679 Speaker 1: work from home? How important is that today? 236 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:33,960 Speaker 6: Well, the five day in office work week is effectively dead. 237 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 1: Only sixty nobody told us. 238 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 6: Well in our survey, employers say that only sixteen percent 239 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:46,840 Speaker 6: of their office jobs are being done in office all 240 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 6: the time five days a week. So most employers are 241 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:53,960 Speaker 6: providing some form of flexibility at least one two three 242 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 6: days when workers can work from home. Hybrid is the 243 00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 6: new normal. 244 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 2: Everyone has told us by Yes, every day someone. 245 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 1: Tells us that, So don't worry. 246 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:07,719 Speaker 2: Paul's just pushing back against it. I look at while 247 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 2: in the terminal we have E can Go, which is 248 00:13:10,040 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 2: a pretty cool function, and you can choose non farm 249 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:15,080 Speaker 2: payrolls from the drop down menu. Highly recommend it and 250 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 2: look at the breakdown. So it's as you said, Julia, 251 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:24,440 Speaker 2: leisure and hospitality a huge driver of this last report. 252 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 2: And then also government is a big driver in terms 253 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 2: of adding jobs. Where do you see this going. Construction 254 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:33,959 Speaker 2: kind of shrank a little bit. Where do you see 255 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 2: this going as we head into the holiday season. 256 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:39,200 Speaker 6: Well, you know, that's a good news story, not a 257 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 6: bad news story. I think some people are interpreting that 258 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:45,040 Speaker 6: as the economy only creating low paying jobs and leasion hospitality. 259 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:49,840 Speaker 6: That's not true. With today's report, every major sector has 260 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:53,560 Speaker 6: now recovered to pre pandemic levels except leisure hospitality, which 261 00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 6: thank goodness, is at least catching up and moving in 262 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 6: the right direction. 263 00:13:57,240 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 7: You know, the. 264 00:13:57,559 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 6: Government, local government school rules have been short staffed. They 265 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 6: started the last school year with lots of vacancies. They 266 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 6: had to do the same thing again this year, so 267 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 6: it's good to see them finally making some headway, and 268 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:15,719 Speaker 6: the private sector still posted the lion's dare of the jobs. 269 00:14:16,360 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 1: So we had average hourly earnings grow four point two 270 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 1: percent year every year. You can make the argument that 271 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 1: number should actually be higher if there's so many, if 272 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 1: it's so hard to find, people want to just pay more. 273 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 6: Yes, So on average wages have grown eighteen percent now 274 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 6: since the pandemic. Prices have also grown eighteen percent since 275 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,840 Speaker 6: the pandemic. So from the perspective of most workers, it's 276 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 6: been a wash. They're just treading water and they got 277 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 6: used to real wage growths between twenty thirteen and twenty nineteen, 278 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 6: when they actually saw their wages grow about one point 279 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:55,320 Speaker 6: four percent faster than inflation each year. So they're wondering 280 00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:59,480 Speaker 6: why they're not managing to get a little bit more 281 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 6: each year. I think that wages could still do some 282 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 6: catching up over the coming years, given how tight the 283 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 6: slave market is. 284 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 1: All right, Julia, thanks so much. We appreciate that as always, 285 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 1: Julia Pollock from Zip Recruiter. 286 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 5: You're listening to the tape cans Are Live program Bloomberg 287 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:20,200 Speaker 5: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio. The 288 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 5: tune in app Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App. 289 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 5: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 290 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 5: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 291 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 1: Let's break down this job's number because it deserves some 292 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 1: more attention. Here. Tom Gimble, he is with us. He 293 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 1: knows a thing or two about this market. He's the 294 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:43,960 Speaker 1: CEO of LaSalle Network, and Tom, I'm just going to say, 295 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:45,239 Speaker 1: you know, here's my analysis. 296 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 4: Wow, I would agree. And just before we get rolling 297 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 4: on this, for the record, I went to University of 298 00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 4: Colorado and coach Prime. I'm just so we're going to 299 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 4: talk football. Let's just talk about who's really on the upside. 300 00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:57,280 Speaker 1: That's right. 301 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 4: No, this number is fantastic. I think a lot of 302 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 4: it's propped up by the government quite frankly, which gives 303 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 4: me a little cause for concern of when that's bigot 304 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 4: finally gets turned off. But it's definitely a good sign 305 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:15,560 Speaker 4: that we're not ready to land this economy just yet. 306 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 2: So where's all the impetus coming from? We were talking 307 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 2: yesterday about the Inflation Reduction Act, and of course we 308 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:24,000 Speaker 2: had the Chips Act. Is that money flowing? Is that 309 00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:25,040 Speaker 2: money hiring people. 310 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 4: I think it's the initial infrastructure package. I was talking 311 00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 4: to group down in Texas, that construction company, and that 312 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 4: a couple of years ago, seventy percent of their business 313 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 4: was I had followed up on a story that I 314 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 4: had read and talked to them that seventy percent of 315 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 4: their business used to be private and now seventy percent 316 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:51,760 Speaker 4: is public sector and working for the government. And so 317 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 4: I think that the infrastructure is really bearing this thing down. 318 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 4: It's getting a little crazy. 319 00:16:56,080 --> 00:17:00,200 Speaker 1: Can you explain what I guess labor hoarding is. I think 320 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 1: it's really a what is it? Indeed, do you think 321 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 1: it's a thing. 322 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:08,400 Speaker 4: Well, I think the concept of hiring people and not 323 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 4: necessarily needing to use them because the talent may come 324 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:14,240 Speaker 4: and play at a later date. If that's what you're 325 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:18,199 Speaker 4: referring to. And I think that the situation with what 326 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 4: big Tech used to do in that capacity of hiring 327 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 4: people and not yet needing them, I don't think that 328 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:29,440 Speaker 4: it was in wide abundance. I think it's happened from 329 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 4: time to time. The real challenge that we have if 330 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 4: you look at the Jold's report and if you look 331 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:38,119 Speaker 4: at the openings versus the number of people in the 332 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 4: market and looking and that discrepancy. What it really says is, 333 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:45,119 Speaker 4: and we've talked about this before on Jobs Friday, is 334 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 4: the skills gap and where we're missing it, and we're 335 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:52,439 Speaker 4: missing it in two areas, technology and blue collar labor, 336 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 4: and we've got it's all coming at a time that 337 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:59,920 Speaker 4: people are picking political fights instead of doing what's necessary 338 00:17:59,920 --> 00:18:03,879 Speaker 4: for the economy, and that's immigration, both on legal and 339 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 4: illegal immigration south of the border, which affects the blue 340 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 4: collar and European immigration, which really affects the technological gap 341 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:14,399 Speaker 4: that we have. And we need both of those areas 342 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 4: if we want to continue our dominance as a political 343 00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 4: and capitalistic leader. 344 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 2: So wait, you're not saying you're not railing against immigration 345 00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:28,639 Speaker 2: complaining that our jobs get stolen, but saying we need 346 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:30,840 Speaker 2: that immigration to fuel our growth. 347 00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 4: One hundred percent. I mean, look at everyone wants to 348 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 4: compare what we have going on with infrastructure to the 349 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:38,400 Speaker 4: New Deal. And when we had the New Deal, who 350 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 4: did that? Immigrants? And so you know, when you have 351 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 4: that and the people willing to throw a hammer and 352 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:46,400 Speaker 4: do the blue collar work, and we don't have those 353 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:48,919 Speaker 4: people now. Do I think that immigration south of the 354 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 4: border and letting you illegal. No, I'm not propoting. I'm 355 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:55,480 Speaker 4: not a proponent of that. What I do think we 356 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 4: need to do is come to a conclusive agreement on 357 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:01,920 Speaker 4: what's the best way to get people in to keep 358 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 4: the economy fueled, which goes to payroll taxes, which goes 359 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 4: to companies being able to accomplish things, which leads to 360 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 4: trickle down economics where you have more suppliers to what's 361 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,399 Speaker 4: going on. We've just got this intersection that everybody thinks 362 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:18,400 Speaker 4: that the economy is going to keep going forever. We've 363 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:22,120 Speaker 4: got the UAW talking about thirty two hours of work 364 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:25,680 Speaker 4: for forty hours of pay. You know that's entitlement talk. 365 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 4: That's not capitalistic talk. 366 00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 8: You know. 367 00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 2: Well, I just wanted to pull up he can he 368 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:34,159 Speaker 2: Can Go, which is a function that I've been playing 369 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 2: with on the Bloomberg terminal. It's a very cool way 370 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:42,760 Speaker 2: to chart job games, and Eca n go is the 371 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 2: way you can pull it up if can look at 372 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 2: a number of data points with it. But I can 373 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 2: see tom that we added a lot more jobs in 374 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:53,240 Speaker 2: leisure and hospitality in the last month than we have 375 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 2: in previous months. We added more jobs well, government workers. 376 00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 2: We added more government workers than we did last month. 377 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,639 Speaker 2: We had more trade, transportation and utilities workers than we 378 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:05,720 Speaker 2: did last month. What do you think about the trends 379 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 2: about the sectors that you've seen move and how do 380 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 2: you see it going forward into the holiday shopping season. 381 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:19,159 Speaker 4: Well, I think that the consumer spending, I think is 382 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:23,919 Speaker 4: going to be decent, and I think when and I 383 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:28,640 Speaker 4: know that there's talk about where the individual credit problems 384 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:31,679 Speaker 4: are and what we're looking at, but what we've got is, 385 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 4: you know, what's the expression that he who knows, he 386 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 4: who knows only his own generation remains always a child. 387 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 4: And I think that we're looking at people that don't 388 00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:45,160 Speaker 4: want to study history and don't want to look back, 389 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 4: and we've got a couple of generations of people that 390 00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:52,919 Speaker 4: think that if if we overspend, are what we have, 391 00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 4: the government's going to take care of us. And I 392 00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,119 Speaker 4: think we're going to see that through the holiday season. 393 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 4: And I haven't seen any information to tell me otherwise. 394 00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:04,120 Speaker 4: I see the travel and hospitality, like you said, continues 395 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:07,760 Speaker 4: to hire. There's a shortage, and I'm in Chicago. I 396 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:10,920 Speaker 4: was in Denver last week and Charlotte and I saw 397 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 4: signs in every restaurant that they're looking for people and hiring, 398 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 4: and and you have situations where people companies still want 399 00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,440 Speaker 4: to you know, look at California, they want to raise 400 00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:22,959 Speaker 4: the hourly rate for ret They are raising the hourly 401 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:27,959 Speaker 4: rate for restaurant workers and simultaneously complaining about inflation and 402 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,440 Speaker 4: what we can do about it. It's like the left 403 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 4: hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing. 404 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 2: Look at the fiscal stimulus that we get and the 405 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:37,399 Speaker 2: FED trying to raise rates. So you know, as the 406 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:41,640 Speaker 2: as the federal government is stimulating economic growth, the FED 407 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 2: is trying to slow it down. 408 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,760 Speaker 4: Yep, Hey Tom, Yeah, Well I think that that's because 409 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:48,159 Speaker 4: the Fed, the FED isn't worrying about votes. 410 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,359 Speaker 1: That's probably true, right, Tom. Talk to us about, you know, 411 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:53,639 Speaker 1: kind of some of the trades out there where you 412 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,439 Speaker 1: see a lot of reporting that employers can't find people, 413 00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:58,919 Speaker 1: you know, whether it's electricians or plumbers or things like that. 414 00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,399 Speaker 1: And you know a lot of folks probably are weighing 415 00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:04,240 Speaker 1: whether to get a college education and all that student 416 00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:06,800 Speaker 1: debt versus maybe going to a trade school. Talk to 417 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 1: us about kind of the supplying demand of trade men 418 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 1: and women out there in the economy. 419 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:13,520 Speaker 4: Oh, there's a huge there's a huge shortage of the 420 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:17,520 Speaker 4: blue collar trades. And what ends up happening is you 421 00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:21,240 Speaker 4: see it during during housing bubbles and and when new 422 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:25,080 Speaker 4: construction numbers are going up and they can't find enough 423 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:27,720 Speaker 4: people to do that. And we're seeing it with infrastructure too, 424 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 4: but just on a local level of somebody to come 425 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:33,680 Speaker 4: and fix your plumbing or your lawn sprinklers or cut 426 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,200 Speaker 4: the grass and doing that is that there's a there's 427 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,680 Speaker 4: a shortage of labor, which comes from twofold number one, 428 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 4: the immigration problem that we talked about a few moments ago. 429 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 4: And then secondarily, you've got people that are going to 430 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,200 Speaker 4: college for one year, two year, three years because they 431 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,920 Speaker 4: think that's what they're supposed to do. Societies leading them 432 00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 4: down that path. They're incurring the debt, although I think 433 00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:56,679 Speaker 4: the President just eliminated about nine billion dollars of it. 434 00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 4: And then what do they do And what we moved 435 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 4: into is people working at the Verizon store to sell 436 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:07,320 Speaker 4: phones and they're not happy and the service level isn't great, 437 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 4: or going in and learning a trade, and which is 438 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 4: really you know, the true middle class. If we're going 439 00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 4: to look back over the past seventy years, all. 440 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 1: Right, Tom, thanks as always for chiming in on this 441 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:23,000 Speaker 1: Job's Friday. Tom Gimble, CEO at LaSalle Network. 442 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,520 Speaker 5: You're listening to the Team Ken's Are Live program Bloomberg 443 00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,960 Speaker 5: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 444 00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:34,200 Speaker 5: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen 445 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,360 Speaker 5: on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 446 00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,040 Speaker 1: Let's go to somebody who actually knows where they're talking about. 447 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:41,480 Speaker 1: I they get paid to know what they're talking about, 448 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,880 Speaker 1: as opposed to the three of us. Ellis Pfeiffer. He's 449 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:47,199 Speaker 1: a managing director in fixed income research at Raymond James 450 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:49,119 Speaker 1: Raymond James. By the way, if people don't know, it 451 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:53,080 Speaker 1: is a very very good regional investment bank prograch firm 452 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 1: ray j as we let to call it in the biz. 453 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:56,840 Speaker 1: I competed against them a lot. They have a lot 454 00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:58,520 Speaker 1: of good ana. There's a lot of good bankers down there, 455 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:00,960 Speaker 1: and what they do they do well. Ellis, thanks so 456 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:04,080 Speaker 1: much for joining us here. Explain to us why you 457 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:08,160 Speaker 1: know we got this print on the employment and then 458 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 1: people said, oh, you know, this gives more ammunition to 459 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,800 Speaker 1: the Fed to maybe hike rates. And but now the 460 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,639 Speaker 1: stock market's up and yields are coming back in. What 461 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 1: do you make of today's print maybe how it might 462 00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 1: impact the Fed? 463 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:22,600 Speaker 8: Well, I think, you know, it's not going to slow 464 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:24,760 Speaker 8: down the Fed as far as you know their rhetoric, 465 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 8: and it's not going to make them change course by 466 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,520 Speaker 8: any stretch because the job market is obviously continued to 467 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 8: be relatively strong. Now the issue becomes, you know, when 468 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:38,800 Speaker 8: you look at the underlying data, there was some some 469 00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,640 Speaker 8: not discrepancies, I guess, but some differences between the non 470 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,399 Speaker 8: farm peril data that came out this morning, some of 471 00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 8: the data earlier in the week, and then the household 472 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:52,280 Speaker 8: employment numbers is you know, household survey this morning that's 473 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,679 Speaker 8: responsible for the unemployment rate. So you know, the earlier 474 00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 8: in the week we learned that, you know, Joelt's data 475 00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,520 Speaker 8: told us there were a lot of professional jobs, high 476 00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:06,439 Speaker 8: paying jobs, and we're opening yet today's survey on the 477 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 8: household survey tells us that, well, you know, most of 478 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:13,439 Speaker 8: the jobs came in lower paying jobs, such as you know, 479 00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:16,359 Speaker 8: the services industry, and that the part time work has 480 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:20,080 Speaker 8: actually increased, whereas full time workers actually decreased. So those 481 00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 8: things kind of coldbined to help the abrgality earning stops. 482 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:25,840 Speaker 8: I think that's where the market's kind of looking at 483 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,000 Speaker 8: this going well, you know, the the survey the households 484 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:32,800 Speaker 8: are there is really more closely tied to the ADP 485 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 8: jobs number, so maybe not quite as strong, you know, 486 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,040 Speaker 8: the headline data versus the true underlying data. And I 487 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:41,720 Speaker 8: think that's why the market turned around to that. 488 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 2: So what do you think is driving this, uh, this 489 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:50,440 Speaker 2: this labor market. At the same time as indust rates 490 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:52,960 Speaker 2: have risen to you know, levels we haven't seen since 491 00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,679 Speaker 2: two thousand and seven, companies continue to hirelight crazy. 492 00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,000 Speaker 8: Why, Well, I think a lot of you know, a 493 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,080 Speaker 8: lot of the hiring has come in, you know, the 494 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,800 Speaker 8: the services industry, and you know, when when things are tough, 495 00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 8: we were hoping we'd see this big rotation into the 496 00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:11,280 Speaker 8: services industry away from the goods industry and that, and 497 00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:14,159 Speaker 8: we've been getting it of late. We've had you know, 498 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 8: had a lot of savings still tent up from from 499 00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:21,120 Speaker 8: pandemic stimulus. Uh that that has been drawn down a lot, 500 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,800 Speaker 8: but a lot of that spending went moved away from 501 00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:29,000 Speaker 8: the goods day the goods type of purchases into the 502 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 8: services type purchases and that's you know, frankly, while the 503 00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:36,720 Speaker 8: FED has been so focused on you know, services inflation 504 00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 8: less housing because in our house it's very sticky, So 505 00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:41,399 Speaker 8: they've been they've been focused there. That's where the growth 506 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:44,960 Speaker 8: has been. It's been it's really in the services, uh industry. 507 00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 2: So what do you take from the rates picture then, ellis? 508 00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:51,240 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, we had for a long time 509 00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:55,240 Speaker 2: and inverted a very inverted yield curve wherever you looked, 510 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:59,480 Speaker 2: and typically you know that has signaled a recession. Now 511 00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 2: we have have a bear steepening, which is I suppose 512 00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:07,080 Speaker 2: rarer than a bowl steepening, and correct me if I'm 513 00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:11,879 Speaker 2: wrong with these terms, but basically it doesn't happen as often, 514 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:16,120 Speaker 2: but that always leads into a recession. So how does 515 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,240 Speaker 2: the future look to you considering what the curve is 516 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 2: telling us? 517 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:22,399 Speaker 8: Yeah? Absolutely, and you're absolutely right, it's a little bit 518 00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 8: different this time. You know, back in two thousand and 519 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:26,800 Speaker 8: seven we saw a little bit of a bear steepening 520 00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 8: ahead of the recession, but so it is fairly rare 521 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,680 Speaker 8: for that to happen as far as the recession, and 522 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 8: a resteepening of the U curve is definitely a better 523 00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:41,720 Speaker 8: predictor than an inversion, and at least a more timely predicted. 524 00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:46,080 Speaker 8: So but you know, I think the resteepening has occurred 525 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:50,199 Speaker 8: from two factors. One has been that rise in oil prices, 526 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,359 Speaker 8: which has since come off quite a bit, and so 527 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:55,800 Speaker 8: that that hasn't barely been reflecting the bomb market. I 528 00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:58,960 Speaker 8: think we're kind of nervous about today. And then the 529 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,320 Speaker 8: other is the higher for longer kind of makes you know, 530 00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:05,520 Speaker 8: the bond market tend to reprice, you know, that term 531 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 8: premium that that tends to you know, keep rates a 532 00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,360 Speaker 8: little bit more elevated for the time. So I think 533 00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:14,480 Speaker 8: it's going to have to obviously similar more data prints, 534 00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:16,840 Speaker 8: but I think that's kind of why we're sitting at 535 00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:19,960 Speaker 8: these highs. And and frankly, there's a there's a lot 536 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:24,440 Speaker 8: of speculative interest on the short side or bond market. 537 00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:29,879 Speaker 8: So the sentiment from you know, the speculative market is 538 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:35,360 Speaker 8: quite dramatic at this point. And they are a very 539 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 8: good sentiment indicator, they're not a very good timing indicator. 540 00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:42,600 Speaker 8: Similar instances were you know, twenty eighteen, uh and then 541 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:46,360 Speaker 8: once you know, the common began to show some weakness 542 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,720 Speaker 8: and some some other issues, you know bond market actually started. 543 00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:52,560 Speaker 1: Rallying them els thirty seconds left. What's the what's the 544 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,680 Speaker 1: typical conversation you're having these days with your clients? 545 00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:58,400 Speaker 8: It is, why would I invest further out of the 546 00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:01,240 Speaker 8: curve when I can get more in the shorter term? 547 00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,200 Speaker 8: And you know, we've gone through the numbers and we're 548 00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:06,080 Speaker 8: told clients, you know, if you if you just simply, 549 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,440 Speaker 8: for instance, by a two year at this level and 550 00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 8: give up X number of basis points over the two 551 00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 8: year cycle which you expect things to change in the 552 00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:20,160 Speaker 8: market and Bonsta Valley, you would you would become you 553 00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:22,920 Speaker 8: do well way better off by standing out of the 554 00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:25,920 Speaker 8: eel kurt today, capturing some of that longer term yield 555 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,440 Speaker 8: and then instead of trying to trying to keep up 556 00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:30,800 Speaker 8: with money market rates, email rights things like that. 557 00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:33,640 Speaker 1: All right, Alis, I really appreciate you taking the time. 558 00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:37,400 Speaker 1: Ellis Pfeiffer, he is at Raymond James. He's a managing 559 00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:39,320 Speaker 1: your director in fixing, come Research. 560 00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,160 Speaker 5: You're listening to the tape. Catch are live program Bloomberg 561 00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,800 Speaker 5: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 562 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:50,080 Speaker 5: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app. 563 00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,960 Speaker 5: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 564 00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:57,560 Speaker 5: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 565 00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:03,000 Speaker 1: One challenge is in one headwood headwinds is commercial real 566 00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:06,960 Speaker 1: estate and that could be a big, big issue. It 567 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:09,040 Speaker 1: already is for a lot of investors, for a lot 568 00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:11,360 Speaker 1: of owners of real estate. But we wanted to dig 569 00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:13,960 Speaker 1: into it a little bit on the back of this 570 00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,800 Speaker 1: labor data and talk about commercial real estate. John Fish 571 00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:19,760 Speaker 1: is the CEO of Suffolk Construction and he's chair of 572 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:23,120 Speaker 1: the Real Estate Roundtable. And John, thanks so much for 573 00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:25,560 Speaker 1: joining us here, and you're kind enough to provide some 574 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:29,560 Speaker 1: notes here, and you break it down between bad news 575 00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:31,280 Speaker 1: as it relates to the state of the commercial real 576 00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:34,320 Speaker 1: estate business and good news, And boy, you list a 577 00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:38,320 Speaker 1: lot more bad news type of issues than good news. 578 00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:41,200 Speaker 1: How concerned should we be about the commercial real estate 579 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:44,280 Speaker 1: business from a perspective that not everybody's going back to 580 00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 1: work yet, there are big loans tied to these things, 581 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:50,239 Speaker 1: there's a lot of vacant office space around. Help us 582 00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:52,840 Speaker 1: frame the state of the commercial real estate business today 583 00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:53,320 Speaker 1: in America. 584 00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:56,680 Speaker 7: First, Paul and Matt, thank you the privilege to be 585 00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 7: with you this afternoon. I would say that the commercial 586 00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,480 Speaker 7: real estate business in a very very tough situation this 587 00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:05,280 Speaker 7: particular point in time, and some multitude of reasons that 588 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:08,000 Speaker 7: you've been reporting on over the last few months on it. 589 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:10,120 Speaker 7: You know, first, you get vacancy rates running anywhere from 590 00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:13,640 Speaker 7: twenty to forty percent in the You get the hollowing 591 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:17,000 Speaker 7: out of our urban areas of our communities with the Chicago, Boston, 592 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,960 Speaker 7: San Francisco. You get also one hundred one point five 593 00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,000 Speaker 7: trillion dollars or commercial loans coming to in the next 594 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:25,440 Speaker 7: couple of years, which is a significant amount of money 595 00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:27,760 Speaker 7: coup with the fact that there is no capital available 596 00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:31,280 Speaker 7: right now. Banks are not lending, especially the commercial banks 597 00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,960 Speaker 7: this particular point in time, and when they do lend, 598 00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:37,400 Speaker 7: the cost of this capital is significantly high than it 599 00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:39,600 Speaker 7: was before in the past. And I think one of 600 00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:42,800 Speaker 7: the biggest issues that I think this revolves around commercial 601 00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 7: real estate today is price discovery. People don't understand what 602 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:52,120 Speaker 7: value is today. We don't understand what building's are worth. 603 00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,360 Speaker 7: And therefore, because there's no history over the last few months, 604 00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:58,520 Speaker 7: a few quarters about how things have traded, people cannot 605 00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:01,640 Speaker 7: understand valuation. And once you get in that type of 606 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:05,200 Speaker 7: doom loop situation, it really really doesn't speak well for 607 00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:08,600 Speaker 7: the future of real estates, especially commercial estate over the 608 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:11,560 Speaker 7: next I would say four or five quarters my senses, 609 00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,160 Speaker 7: at the end of the day, things will settle down, 610 00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:17,440 Speaker 7: we will end up with a high degree of price discovery, 611 00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:21,520 Speaker 7: and we will have more of a consistency and prictability 612 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:23,400 Speaker 7: going forward. But at the end of the day, it's 613 00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:25,720 Speaker 7: a challenging time, and I think what we need to 614 00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,280 Speaker 7: be focusing on, how do we just take this one 615 00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,480 Speaker 7: day to time and realize what the fed's actions that 616 00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,400 Speaker 7: are on a going four basis have a very very 617 00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:39,520 Speaker 7: deleterious impact on the solution to real estate's problems today. 618 00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,040 Speaker 2: So it does look like the FED could lean towards 619 00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:46,640 Speaker 2: another hike here after we got such a strong jobs 620 00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:50,440 Speaker 2: number this morning, as Paul has been saying, does that 621 00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:52,680 Speaker 2: concern you? I mean, we're looking at you know, yields 622 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:54,800 Speaker 2: climbing across the curve and that's just got to be 623 00:32:56,160 --> 00:33:01,440 Speaker 2: even more bad news for commercial real estate and probably 624 00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:02,400 Speaker 2: building in general. 625 00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:06,560 Speaker 7: Yeah, no doubt. I mean the ten year today is 626 00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:08,400 Speaker 7: sort of a harbring dull where we're going. There's no 627 00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:10,360 Speaker 7: doubt in my mind about that, and I think the 628 00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,760 Speaker 7: FED raising the interest rates in November by twenty five 629 00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:17,760 Speaker 7: basis points is not really material. It's psychological. It's more 630 00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:19,880 Speaker 7: or less, you know, charming out the fact that we're 631 00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:22,360 Speaker 7: going to continue to raise interest rates, we continue to 632 00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,200 Speaker 7: put stress on capital across the board, We're going to 633 00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,640 Speaker 7: continue to create create a sense of instability in the 634 00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:31,160 Speaker 7: financial markets. When you ever have instability and lack of predictability, 635 00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,280 Speaker 7: you get problems at the end of the day. And 636 00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:35,320 Speaker 7: I think what we need to do, We just need 637 00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:38,280 Speaker 7: to take a deep breath, slow down, and give the 638 00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:41,720 Speaker 7: real estate developers and the lenders out there time to 639 00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:46,000 Speaker 7: solve these problems, because if they don't, these issues will 640 00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:49,920 Speaker 7: become the taxpayers problems, not the real estate developers problems. 641 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,640 Speaker 7: And today that the real estate developers problems, the private 642 00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:55,400 Speaker 7: equities problems, the shadow banking problems, but they're not the 643 00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:58,200 Speaker 7: taxpayers and if we move too quickly, they will become 644 00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:01,240 Speaker 7: the taxpayers problems. In addition, just to comment on what 645 00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:03,960 Speaker 7: Joe Biden spoke about the three hundred thirty six thousand jobs, 646 00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:08,920 Speaker 7: I think that was a very very powerful strong estimate. 647 00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:12,720 Speaker 7: I mean, you know it blew past expectations of maybe 648 00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,320 Speaker 7: one seventy out there. But at the end of the day, 649 00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:17,640 Speaker 7: I think it's good news. But also there's I think 650 00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:21,120 Speaker 7: concerning news behind all that. Okay, going forward, we've got 651 00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:24,080 Speaker 7: a serious immigration problem in this country. I think everybody 652 00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:27,080 Speaker 7: acknowledge it. My industry, real estate construction, we're in zero 653 00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:29,759 Speaker 7: one on a point right now. We're not a three 654 00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:32,120 Speaker 7: point six or three point seven percent. So if we 655 00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:35,919 Speaker 7: don't solve for the immigration issue, okay, we don't bring 656 00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:38,160 Speaker 7: more people into this country, it's going to be very 657 00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:40,799 Speaker 7: difficult to grow our economy. And so to me, I 658 00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:43,280 Speaker 7: stand firm and the fact that we need to focus 659 00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:46,440 Speaker 7: on today how to put forth a solid immigration policy 660 00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:50,240 Speaker 7: to prevent continuing escalation of wages which were seen across 661 00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:53,600 Speaker 7: the board right now. And I think this wage escalation issue, 662 00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:57,520 Speaker 7: unfortunately is not going to subside. And when you take 663 00:34:57,520 --> 00:35:00,840 Speaker 7: a UAW, you take over the pilots, you take good healthcare. 664 00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:03,399 Speaker 7: Right now at the Kaiser, this is systemic in our 665 00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:06,640 Speaker 7: society today. In this health in this labor issue is 666 00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,160 Speaker 7: going to continue to drive inflation higher over the next 667 00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:10,640 Speaker 7: I think four or five quarters. 668 00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:12,959 Speaker 1: How bad is that going to be? Commercial real estate loans. 669 00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:15,719 Speaker 7: I think it's gonna be very, very challenging. As I 670 00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:18,960 Speaker 7: talked about this idea of price discovery, people don't know 671 00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:21,239 Speaker 7: what assets are worth it at this particular point in time. 672 00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:23,760 Speaker 7: I just think is a point out we need time 673 00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:27,080 Speaker 7: to allow people to get accustomed to the current economic 674 00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:31,520 Speaker 7: and financial environment and give these banks and lenders and 675 00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:34,480 Speaker 7: it borrows more time to work these things out. If 676 00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:36,399 Speaker 7: we don't, I think at the end of the day, 677 00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:39,840 Speaker 7: it could be very very material to overall economy on 678 00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:40,840 Speaker 7: a going for a basis. 679 00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:42,640 Speaker 1: All right, John, thanks so much for if you mention. 680 00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:46,200 Speaker 1: Really appreciate getting your perspective there. John Fish, he's the 681 00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:49,399 Speaker 1: CEO of Suffolk Construction. He's also the chair of the 682 00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,759 Speaker 1: Real Estate round Table talking about commercial real estate. It's 683 00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:54,200 Speaker 1: going to be some challenging. As John said, next four 684 00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:56,360 Speaker 1: to five quarters, price discovery is going to be a 685 00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:58,600 Speaker 1: big thing. What is that building that's for sale on 686 00:35:58,880 --> 00:36:00,799 Speaker 1: forty six Street and third app We know what it 687 00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,040 Speaker 1: sold for, you know ten years ago, what's it going 688 00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:05,799 Speaker 1: to sell for today? And what that means? Who knows? 689 00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,360 Speaker 1: And what's the mean for the lenders and the equity 690 00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:09,720 Speaker 1: holders there? That's a big issue. 691 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:13,040 Speaker 5: You're listening to the tape cans are live program Bloomberg 692 00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:16,680 Speaker 5: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 693 00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:18,839 Speaker 5: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com. 694 00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:20,000 Speaker 4: And the Bloomberg Business App. 695 00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:22,839 Speaker 5: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 696 00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:26,480 Speaker 5: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg. 697 00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:31,440 Speaker 1: Eleven thirty jobs number came in today, three hundred and 698 00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,720 Speaker 1: thirty six thousand new jobs. You're heard from President Biden. 699 00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:36,640 Speaker 1: One of the questions is who's getting these jobs? What 700 00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:41,279 Speaker 1: types of industries? Is it evenly distributed across this economy. 701 00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:45,200 Speaker 1: Let's check in with our next guest, Javier Paulo Mades. 702 00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:49,200 Speaker 1: He is the president and CEO of US Hispanic Business Council, 703 00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:53,520 Speaker 1: and we appreciate Jabier spending a couple of minutes with us. 704 00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,760 Speaker 1: Talk to us about the Hispanic community out there. Javier, 705 00:36:57,000 --> 00:37:01,359 Speaker 1: how are they participating in what is in a remarkably 706 00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:02,880 Speaker 1: strong labor market. 707 00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:07,320 Speaker 9: Yeah, it's been great, you know, you know, what a 708 00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:11,759 Speaker 9: pleasant surprise, nearly three hundred and forty thousand jobs. You know, 709 00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:14,040 Speaker 9: in August we saw what I thought were kind of 710 00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:18,160 Speaker 9: pre pandemic growth rates at it, you know, but it 711 00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:22,959 Speaker 9: proved this month proved that, you know, certainly we're still 712 00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:26,640 Speaker 9: adding jobs and there's some real bright spots as you mentioned, 713 00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:29,560 Speaker 9: not only for the American small business community, but specifically 714 00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:34,400 Speaker 9: for the Hispanic community and the Hispanic small business community. 715 00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:36,960 Speaker 9: The growth, as you mentioned, in the private sector was 716 00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:41,040 Speaker 9: led by leisure and hospitality, healthcare, professional services. I think 717 00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:45,960 Speaker 9: leisure and hospitality added some ninety six thousand jobs. Hispanics 718 00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:49,759 Speaker 9: are about twenty five percent of that workforce. Professional services 719 00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:53,440 Speaker 9: added about thirty thousand jobs, Hispanics for about twenty percent 720 00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:57,160 Speaker 9: of that workforce, and then healthcare added about forty thousand jobs, 721 00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:00,040 Speaker 9: and Hispanics are about fifty percent of that workforce. So 722 00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:03,080 Speaker 9: for the American small business community, great for the Hispanic 723 00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:06,279 Speaker 9: business community, Suffice it to say, you know, Hispanics had 724 00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:09,480 Speaker 9: had a role to play, and you know, I'm delighted 725 00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:10,040 Speaker 9: at the news. 726 00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:15,719 Speaker 2: So according to the Small Business Association, five million, there 727 00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:19,320 Speaker 2: are five million or near that Hispanic owned businesses in 728 00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:23,960 Speaker 2: the US, and according to Stanford, Hispanics have created eighty 729 00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:27,600 Speaker 2: percent of all the net new businesses in basically the 730 00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:28,400 Speaker 2: last decade. 731 00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:30,600 Speaker 1: Actually it was twenty eleven to twenty twenty one. 732 00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:33,640 Speaker 9: So there's some four point five million Hispanic owned firms 733 00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:37,080 Speaker 9: in the country that collectively contribute just north of eight 734 00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:40,600 Speaker 9: hundred billion dollars to the American economy. They run the gamut, 735 00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:43,360 Speaker 9: you know, from every industry in size and business model. 736 00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:47,080 Speaker 9: You can imagine. And yeah, about eighty percent of the 737 00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:50,640 Speaker 9: net new businesses that were created were created by a 738 00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:53,880 Speaker 9: Latino in this country over the last decade. So you know, 739 00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:56,200 Speaker 9: we're creating new businesses at a rate of three to 740 00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:59,680 Speaker 9: one when compared to the general market. And you know, 741 00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:01,399 Speaker 9: I I think we're at the beginning of this thing. 742 00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:05,840 Speaker 9: It's only getting better, it's only getting stronger. According to 743 00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:11,080 Speaker 9: the Department of Labor between the years twenty twenty and 744 00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:14,560 Speaker 9: twenty thirty, So we're in it now. According to Labor, 745 00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:18,080 Speaker 9: between twenty twenty and twenty thirty, some seventy eight percent 746 00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:21,960 Speaker 9: of new entrants, net new entrance into the workforce will 747 00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:25,399 Speaker 9: be Hispanic. Imagine that seventy eight percent of the net 748 00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:28,640 Speaker 9: new entrance into the American workforce will be Hispanic. 749 00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:31,520 Speaker 2: Well, and we were talking earlier with Tom Gimble, who 750 00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:36,160 Speaker 2: runs the LaSalle Staffing Network out of Chicago, and he 751 00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:40,400 Speaker 2: was saying, one of the biggest problems in the labor 752 00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:44,400 Speaker 2: market these days is that we don't have enough immigration, 753 00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:49,200 Speaker 2: that we need more immigration, you know, from. 754 00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:51,279 Speaker 1: All of our borders. How do you stop that. 755 00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:59,200 Speaker 2: Issue from being conflated with the illegal immigration that we 756 00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:02,520 Speaker 2: see rugs coming in, people dying in the desert, like 757 00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:05,960 Speaker 2: that whole negative story. How do you separate out, you know, 758 00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:07,240 Speaker 2: the positive from the negative. 759 00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:11,200 Speaker 9: You know, certainly you know it is a contentious issue, 760 00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:15,160 Speaker 9: no no, no question, Administration after administration, Republican Democrat has 761 00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,319 Speaker 9: kick this can down the road, which is why we 762 00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:20,800 Speaker 9: find are some of the situation we're in now. Clearly 763 00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:22,680 Speaker 9: there is a crisis on the border. We need to 764 00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:25,040 Speaker 9: deal with that, We need to keep the bad actors out. 765 00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:29,759 Speaker 9: But to pretend that America doesn't need immigrant labor is 766 00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:34,759 Speaker 9: disingenuous at best. I think our elected officials have a 767 00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:38,120 Speaker 9: responsibility to parse this thing out and look at it 768 00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:42,240 Speaker 9: from an economic perspective. At the United States Hispanic Business Council, 769 00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:45,879 Speaker 9: and we're the leading advocate for America's small Hispanic small 770 00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:49,800 Speaker 9: business community, and we have always believed that immigration reform 771 00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:52,840 Speaker 9: is an economic imperative. I mean, if you look at 772 00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:57,560 Speaker 9: the agricultural sector alone, the last time I was on BLUEMBERG. 773 00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:01,319 Speaker 9: I think it was I mentioned that that sector is 774 00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:05,640 Speaker 9: seventy three percent immigrant labor. And in that sector alone 775 00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:12,279 Speaker 9: last year we basically destroyed ten million tons, not ten 776 00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:17,600 Speaker 9: million pounds, ten million tons of fruits and vegetables and 777 00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:23,360 Speaker 9: unharvested fields because we simply didn't have the immigrant labor 778 00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:28,640 Speaker 9: to work the industry. So it is an important issue, 779 00:41:28,760 --> 00:41:32,160 Speaker 9: important enough for the continued well being of the American 780 00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:34,360 Speaker 9: economy that we should deal with it honestly. 781 00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:37,160 Speaker 1: So let me ask you, Javier, as the CEO of 782 00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:39,759 Speaker 1: the US Hispanic Business Council, what do you believe is 783 00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:42,719 Speaker 1: proper immigation policy? And you've got it full thirty seconds. 784 00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:45,600 Speaker 9: You know, we need to start with worker visas right 785 00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:47,960 Speaker 9: off the bat. We need to increase the worker visas 786 00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:51,440 Speaker 9: both from the you know, the high tech sector all 787 00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:54,960 Speaker 9: the way down to skilled labor. The Dignity Act is 788 00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:57,919 Speaker 9: a very good start. We should look at that as 789 00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:00,360 Speaker 9: a starter, and we need to frankly come to together 790 00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:03,840 Speaker 9: both both parties, both sides of the aisle, to find 791 00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:07,040 Speaker 9: a workable solution for the American people, the American economy. 792 00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:09,760 Speaker 1: All right, Javier, thank you so much. We appreciate it certainly, 793 00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:14,399 Speaker 1: certainly a very contentious issue as we speak right now 794 00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:17,239 Speaker 1: in Washington and on the borders. But again, you put 795 00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:18,719 Speaker 1: that in the context of a very well and I 796 00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:20,399 Speaker 1: think they're two separate issues, right. 797 00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:25,080 Speaker 2: I mean, you have the illegal immigration story, and then 798 00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:29,560 Speaker 2: you've got the legal immigration. We need to bring in 799 00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:33,560 Speaker 2: more legal immigrants to do work in this country, and 800 00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:36,360 Speaker 2: a lot of them obviously are Hispanic, a lot of 801 00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:38,600 Speaker 2: them are going to be German, a lot of them 802 00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:41,480 Speaker 2: are going to be French. Maybe not French, but a 803 00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:42,920 Speaker 2: lot of different countries, you know. 804 00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:46,360 Speaker 1: Yep, absolutely a big issue. Javier Palomeris, he is a 805 00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:49,839 Speaker 1: president and CEO of the US Hispanic Business Council, join 806 00:42:49,960 --> 00:42:52,120 Speaker 1: us to give us his unique perspective. 807 00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:55,399 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can 808 00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:59,200 Speaker 2: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever 809 00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:02,560 Speaker 2: podcast plans form you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on 810 00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:05,160 Speaker 2: Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three. 811 00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:07,960 Speaker 1: And I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. 812 00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:10,759 Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at 813 00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:11,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.