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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: Are you going to place a bet? Or walk?

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by Fan Duel.

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Speaker 3: This is the NFL edition of our Experts Guide to

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Speaker 3: Betting series. I'm your host, Maria Marino, excited to be

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Speaker 3: joined by NFL betting experts Chris Raybon and Stucky Fellas.

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Speaker 1: How we doing doing as good as we can be

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Speaker 1: doing with no football? But it's coming, you know, only

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Speaker 1: about a week away?

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Speaker 2: Stuck you for me? You got a little more time.

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Speaker 2: I don't get involved in preseason. I don't have any time,

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Speaker 2: way too busy with college football and NFL prep. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's football is in the air. Got a couple college

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Speaker 2: football podcasts and recording later today quick shameless pluck for

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Speaker 2: big bets on campus if you don't listen to that.

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Speaker 2: So I'm excited to run this back with Raybon on

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Speaker 2: for another full season. Should be fun.

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Speaker 3: I do want to remind you, though, that Chris and

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Speaker 3: Stuck will be bringing you our flagship NFL betting preview

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Speaker 3: episodes here on The Action Network Podcast every Thursday this

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Speaker 3: fall for a fifth consecutive season.

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Speaker 4: Wow, you guys are vets.

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Speaker 3: And before we actually get into all the best practices

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Speaker 3: for betting NFL.

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Speaker 4: I do want to lay out.

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Speaker 3: Sort of your qualifications and what makes each of you

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Speaker 3: an expert.

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Speaker 4: Betting this sport. So Raymond, we'll start with you.

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Speaker 3: How long have you been betting NFL, how often do

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Speaker 3: you bet during the year, and anything else you want

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Speaker 3: to add.

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Speaker 5: I've been watching every snap of very game since twenty ten,

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Speaker 5: betting since the mid twenty tens, one forty three, seventy

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Speaker 5: and two sixty seven percent last season. Overall, over the

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Speaker 5: past five seasons, I've wogged just over thirteen hundred bets

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Speaker 5: and one at a fifty seven percent clip. But most importantly,

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Speaker 5: I know Stucky's going to tell you he's been betting

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Speaker 5: since like the nineties, and I just I just want,

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Speaker 5: I just want everybody to know that I've beat him

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Speaker 5: to it the last three times in our podcast. So

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Speaker 5: whatever qualifications he has, I'm just going to piggyback off that.

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Speaker 1: Well.

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Speaker 2: I will say one NFL season, very very small sample size,

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Speaker 2: so yeah, but I like getting the competitive juices going

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Speaker 2: before this season. Yeah, I've been betting NFL every week

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Speaker 2: for the guests over twenty years now, since high school.

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Speaker 2: I will say that, you know, since the origin of

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Speaker 2: the app. I don't know about seven and a half

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Speaker 2: percent ROI. I think with close to fifteen hundred bets.

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Speaker 2: For the first seven to eight years, through high school

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Speaker 2: through college, I was not making money making dumb beats,

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Speaker 2: Haarlays pleasers, which are like reverse teasers. There's pretty much

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Speaker 2: in all my betting outside of college basketball. But one

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Speaker 2: season is very small sample size in the NFL. Like

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Speaker 2: you could just you could there's there's only so many games,

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Speaker 2: there's only so many Sundays. It's not like a you know,

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Speaker 2: a college basketball baseball NBA where you're you know, you're

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Speaker 2: the amount of bets that you're going to make during

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Speaker 2: the season. Trump's what you're going to do in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: So you kind of want to get a pretty large

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Speaker 2: sample size over a couple of seasons. And once I started,

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Speaker 2: you know, tracking my all of my bets, I realized

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Speaker 2: some of the things that I was doing wrong, which

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Speaker 2: we'll touch on throughout this episode, and the fun of

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Speaker 2: it and the challenge never gets old to me.

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Speaker 3: Wow, I feel like you sold it right there in

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Speaker 3: that phrase that the fund never gets old. Also appreciate

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Speaker 3: you pointing out the humble beginnings I think that's super relatable.

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Speaker 3: So here's the question, you know, how can a regular

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Speaker 3: listener out there actually become good at betting NFL?

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Speaker 4: Just generally?

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Speaker 1: So I got three things if we're going to keep

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Speaker 1: it general.

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Speaker 5: The first thing is target underdogs and unders, because what

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Speaker 5: usually happens is the public is going to the majority

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Speaker 5: of the public is going to bet on favorites, and

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Speaker 5: the majority of the public's going to bet on over

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Speaker 5: It's been about sixty percent for both. You know, the

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Speaker 5: favorite gotten the majority of the money over sixty percent

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Speaker 5: of the time, and so do the overs. So you're

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Speaker 5: gonna get a little bit of line value just by

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Speaker 5: kind of focusing on those as it is, and it's

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Speaker 5: a lot especially with.

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Speaker 1: Underdogs in the NFL.

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Speaker 5: It's a lot easier to pick a team that you know,

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Speaker 5: maybe can keep it closer than then to pick a.

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Speaker 1: Team to not only win, but then to win by

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Speaker 1: a certain margin.

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Speaker 5: That's just I've always found that more difficult because there's

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Speaker 5: a lot of regression and luck and things like that

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Speaker 5: in the NFL. So underdogs and under is my number

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Speaker 5: one thing. Number two, it's kind of along those same lines.

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Speaker 5: It's you generally want to be on the opposite side

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Speaker 5: of the public. So you know, we can track the

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Speaker 5: bets and money and the action network apps, so you

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Speaker 5: can see, for example, okay, the Chiefs are getting eighty

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Speaker 5: percent of the bets and eighty two percent of the money.

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Speaker 5: When you're betting, you generally want to be on the

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Speaker 5: other side of that. Even if you are betting a favor,

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Speaker 5: you don't want to be betting let's say, like a

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Speaker 5: public underdog or something like that. Usually that line is

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Speaker 5: going to be inflated because you know, the books are

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Speaker 5: taking a lot of money on it, and they're going

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Speaker 5: to move the line accordingly, and you're not really gonna

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Speaker 5: get any value. And then the third thing is it's

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Speaker 5: very important in the NFL because the NFL is a

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Speaker 5: very very sharp market. A ton of money comes in

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Speaker 5: every week.

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Speaker 1: On the NFL.

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Speaker 5: It's pretty much the most popular sport at every sports book.

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Speaker 5: So what you have to do is you have to

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Speaker 5: line shop and get the best of the line, which

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Speaker 5: it means I would recommend having multiple sports book accounts

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Speaker 5: because you're going to be looking for you know, a

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Speaker 5: half point here, half point there, and those things are

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Speaker 5: going to add up, especially if you can get it

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Speaker 5: on a key number.

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Speaker 1: Which we'll talk about a little bit later.

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Speaker 5: But I think line shopping is crucial. So underdogs and

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Speaker 5: unders fading the public and line shopping.

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Speaker 4: Wow, great breakdown.

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Speaker 3: And I think the Action app is definitely a great

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Speaker 3: way to line shop. That's one of the benefits of

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Speaker 3: using the Action App. Of course, you can follow both

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Speaker 3: of these guys in there. Once again it's Chris Raymond

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Speaker 3: and Stucky. I'm in the app as well, but I'm very.

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Speaker 4: Selective with my bets, so we'll see what I throw

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Speaker 4: in there.

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Speaker 3: But Stuck, was there anything else you wanted to add,

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Speaker 3: just in terms of like for a regular, like average person,

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Speaker 3: casual fan maybe of the NFL to become good at

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Speaker 3: betting it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's tough for just an average recreation

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Speaker 2: what have become good at betting NFL? It's a super

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Speaker 2: efficient market. But there are things that you can do.

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Speaker 2: Number one, you know, get rid of all the dumb

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Speaker 2: bets that you make that you know, if you want

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Speaker 2: to do some for fun and it's just for entertainment,

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Speaker 2: you have to remember that great you want to put

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Speaker 2: in your eight to ten team barlays your saying Gabar's fine,

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Speaker 2: But if you want to actually get better and improve

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Speaker 2: your ROI, get rid of those. But I think the

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Speaker 2: best thing that you can do is a recreational better

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Speaker 2: is speaking of the action app find someone that you

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Speaker 2: trust with a proven track record. And this is why

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Speaker 2: you know you're going to if you go on Twitter

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Speaker 2: or wherever, you're gonna have a lot of people claiming

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Speaker 2: that they're at betting and beat the NFL. There's not

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Speaker 2: many who do, and that's why tracking is so important.

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Speaker 2: To find someone with an established track record that you

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Speaker 2: can follow. And also you want to bet early in

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Speaker 2: the week, and as Raven said, you want to shop around,

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Speaker 2: get the best of the number. The easiest thing you

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Speaker 2: can do to improve your ROI, so that's just having

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Speaker 2: as many outs as possible, half point here or there

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Speaker 2: that will add up over time. Also as rebuild. It's

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Speaker 2: a huge money in the NFL is super efficient market.

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Speaker 2: There are enormous groups betting just insane amounts of money,

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Speaker 2: but a lot of that has to be filled later

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Speaker 2: in the week on the weekend, So early in the

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Speaker 2: week the market is going to be softer. You're recreational better,

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Speaker 2: there's more opportunities there. It's you know, you don't have

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Speaker 2: to worry about limits or you know, moving the market,

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Speaker 2: but you want to bet early in the week and

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Speaker 2: track your bets, like just going back to the action

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Speaker 2: that over time you'll see am I good? Am I not?

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Speaker 2: If I'm not? Where are my weaknesses? Is it totals?

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Speaker 2: Is it sides? Am I doing too You'll see am

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Speaker 2: I doing too many barlays? Am I? You know? Am

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Speaker 2: I good? In teasers? So there are also some softer

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Speaker 2: markets out there with like teasers that you can potentially

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Speaker 2: bet before getting limited, and then the prop prop betting.

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Speaker 2: We'll talk about that. Raybond can especially speak to that,

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Speaker 2: and if you don't follow him and Sean Kerner, you

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Speaker 2: know you'll see their props when they release them move immediately,

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Speaker 2: like you know set sometimes six seven yards on like

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Speaker 2: a wide receiver prop. That shows you that the market

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Speaker 2: is a lot more inefficient, and you know osmakers aren't

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Speaker 2: spending as much time on there because there's lower limits

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Speaker 2: and you know you can't possibly spend all this time,

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Speaker 2: you know, getting nailing every single player prop and they're

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Speaker 2: not really worried about that because the limits are much lower.

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Speaker 2: But if you're a recreational better you don't have to

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Speaker 2: worry about those limits. So attack the prop betting market,

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Speaker 2: follow people who are good there, and then notifications on

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Speaker 2: the app. You gotta be quick yards just like those

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Speaker 2: half points stay add up again, shop around best number.

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Speaker 2: That comes down to having multiple outs and buyouts. I mean,

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Speaker 2: just as many accounts or sportsbooks as you possibly can,

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Speaker 2: and then you know, especially if you're in a new state,

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Speaker 2: take advantage of those bonuses. That's just free money out

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Speaker 2: there that you're leaving on the table if you don't.

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Speaker 5: And one thing I want to add to what Stucky

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Speaker 5: said that was a great breakdown and when he said

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Speaker 5: you know tracking, one thing that I would also mention

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Speaker 5: is track the bets that you thought about making but

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Speaker 5: didn't make, because I know a lot of people, especially

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Speaker 5: when you're just getting into betting, they're kind of on

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Speaker 5: the fence and they're like, oh, maybe I should have

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Speaker 5: bet that, and then you know, if it hits, they

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Speaker 5: regret not betting it, and you know that might make

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Speaker 5: them you know, tilted or bet more next time. So

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Speaker 5: track the bets you don't make as well, just to see,

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Speaker 5: you know, were you on the right track or were

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Speaker 5: you better off for staying away? So you know, track

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Speaker 5: as much as you can. And I think the non

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Speaker 5: bets are are part of that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, because people have selective memory. I I do it myself.

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Speaker 2: I will look at a card and regardless of support,

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Speaker 2: and I'll say myself, just all this is psychological cognitivevices.

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Speaker 2: I'll say, oh, man, I would have bet that that

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Speaker 2: and that that are winners, and then you know the

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Speaker 2: ones that are losers. I'll say to myself, you know what,

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Speaker 2: but I kind of didn't like this side because of that.

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Speaker 2: Like you you can convince yourself that you should have

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Speaker 2: you should have hit this on a you know, Sunday night,

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Speaker 2: you should You weren't going to hit that if it

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Speaker 2: didn't hit, So you can really get yourself in trouble psychologically.

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Speaker 2: That goes back to, you know, trying to avoid tilt chasing.

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Speaker 2: Those are the bad things. And that's a lot of

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Speaker 2: betters are vulnerable here because of the way the NFL

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Speaker 2: is structured. You have your your early slate on Sunday,

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Speaker 2: you're late slate, then your Sunday night game and your

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Speaker 2: Monday night game. A lot of people call them your

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Speaker 2: chaser specials. So if you're you know, kind of vulnerable,

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Speaker 2: to you know, tilting, chasing, all the things that betters

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Speaker 2: really should just that get most people in trouble. If

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Speaker 2: you think about it, if I went to I always

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Speaker 2: use this analogic. I asked my little sister to make

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Speaker 2: my bets for an entire season, and she just flipped

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Speaker 2: a coin. You know, I'm just gonna juice out. I'm

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Speaker 2: not going to get in too much trouble. I'm gonna have,

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Speaker 2: you know, just fifty percent over a long period of time.

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Speaker 2: But a lot of people get in much more trouble.

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Speaker 2: It's all of those behavioral finance issues, chasing on the

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Speaker 2: Sunday night game, Monday night game. So if you know

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Speaker 2: you're vulnerable to those things that put your Sunday night

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Speaker 2: and your Monday night bet in before you know your

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Speaker 2: Sunday slate starts. Also, going back to what we said,

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Speaker 2: if you're betting that those games right before kick, that's

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Speaker 2: the most efficient number out there. So betting those games

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Speaker 2: early to avoid potential chasing and getting yourself in a

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Speaker 2: hole you can't get out of. It's something that a

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Speaker 2: recreational better can do to just avoid those issues.

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Speaker 3: It's such a great idea to track even the bets

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Speaker 3: that you're thinking about, because it's all about that accountability piece.

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Speaker 3: That's how you're, in my opinion, ultimately going to become successful.

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Speaker 3: And I want to take this a step further. I

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Speaker 3: think I think some of the you know, pillars for

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Speaker 3: betting NFL might be kind of obvious because people are

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Speaker 3: so familiar with the NFL stock.

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Speaker 4: You brought up the schedule before. But is there anything that.

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Speaker 3: You know we might not be thinking of that's obvious

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Speaker 3: in terms of just the basics that you got to

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Speaker 3: know going in ravon?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so I think there are there are a ton

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Speaker 5: when you talk about pillars, and the thing you have

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Speaker 5: to keep in mind throughout all of this, like the

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Speaker 5: one pillar, if there's one, is you have to find

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Speaker 5: an edge compared to the market. The market is going

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Speaker 5: to have what it thinks is should be the true line,

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Speaker 5: and you have to find an edge in the sense

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Speaker 5: that you think that the true line is off from

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Speaker 5: the markets line. So the first thing you need a

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Speaker 5: way to quantify that, you know, for whatever you're betting.

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Speaker 5: So if you're betting sides, for example, you need a

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Speaker 5: way to say, Okay, this team is x amount of

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Speaker 5: points better than the other team. Now It could be

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Speaker 5: as simple as you know, some people just do it

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Speaker 5: in their heads, you know, they just eyeball it. Some

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Speaker 5: people could, you know, would look at something as simple

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Speaker 5: as like a team score, you know, average points or

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Speaker 5: average point differential. Uh, maybe you schedule adjust it. You

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Speaker 5: obviously regress it to the means somewhat, but you could

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Speaker 5: go advance too. You could go with a more complex metric,

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Speaker 5: like you know, taking like a DVOA or yards per

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Speaker 5: play or ep EPA and converting.

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Speaker 1: That to points.

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Speaker 5: But whatever you do, you need a way to just

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Speaker 5: know what the real line should be, and then you

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Speaker 5: need to know how to you know what your edge

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Speaker 5: is going to be. So an edge can come from

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Speaker 5: a variety of things that the market may not have

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Speaker 5: fully factored in or or or even accounting for it all.

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Speaker 5: But you know, injuries are are are some so you

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Speaker 5: always want to keep it keep you know, keep that

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Speaker 5: injury report and that practice report during.

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Speaker 1: The week in mind situational spots.

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Speaker 5: You know, a team coming off blowout, you know, tends

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Speaker 5: to play better a blowout loss that it tends to

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Speaker 5: play better the next week. Teams that blow out teams

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Speaker 5: tend to have letdowns the next week rest. You know,

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Speaker 5: different amounts of rest will will factor in, especially teams

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Speaker 5: coming off of BUYE that's extra preparation Thursday night storter rest.

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Speaker 5: That means the better team. It usually benefits the better team.

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Speaker 5: That's why favorites tend to do better on Thursdays. But

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Speaker 5: like some of the edges that I tend to look for,

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Speaker 5: that I don't think the market fully factors in, even

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Speaker 5: beyond the things I just mentioned.

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Speaker 1: Pressure.

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Speaker 5: I think it's really hard to quantify pressure. But now

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Speaker 5: with all the advanced metrics we have, we definitely can

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Speaker 5: do it. And you know, if there's a quarterback like

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Speaker 5: Baker Mayfield, I usually bet against him when he's going

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Speaker 5: up against the defense that could get pressure, or you

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Speaker 5: know when when a team usually when when a defense

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Speaker 5: doesn't get much pressure, but the opposing quarterback just isn't

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Speaker 5: really good great from a clean pocket.

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Speaker 1: So it doesn't really matter.

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Speaker 5: Things like that that go beyond just you know, two

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Speaker 5: power ratings or whatever that wouldn't capture all the nuances

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Speaker 5: specific matchups. You know, maybe wide receiver, cornerback or something

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Speaker 5: like that that would take you know, take away a

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Speaker 5: key part of the other team's offense. Any type of

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Speaker 5: schematic advantages. And then trends are a big one. You know,

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Speaker 5: stuck an eye tend to mention on the pods all

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Speaker 5: the time. But you know, you would never want to

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Speaker 5: blindly bet on trends. But you can use our Action

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Speaker 5: Labs database and we do all the time to kind

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Speaker 5: of look at trends for example. Uh, you know Andy

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Speaker 5: Reid is great off of Bye Mike Tom wins great

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Speaker 5: as an underdog. And even if you're not going to

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Speaker 5: bet on those trends, what I always like to do

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Speaker 5: is I never like to bet against a trend unless

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Speaker 5: I really have a big edge in my projected numbers.

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Speaker 5: So I'll usually never bet against the Steelers when they're

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Speaker 5: an underdog, even you know, even if I'm not betting

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Speaker 5: on them.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 5: And then correlations NFL, there's so many correlations, so you know,

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Speaker 5: you we want to avoid the ones that are gonna

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Speaker 5: hurt you, which a lot of times means don't parlay,

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Speaker 5: don't same game parlay. I tend to like to have

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Speaker 5: one bet per game because let's say you're betting a

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Speaker 5: side and a total in the same game. You know,

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Speaker 5: for that side to win, you might need them to

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Speaker 5: score another touchdown. But if you have the under you know,

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Speaker 5: you might not only be able to win one out

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Speaker 5: of two, and that's kind of what the book is

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Speaker 5: counting on. Same thing for a prop and a side

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Speaker 5: or a prop in a total. So I like to

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Speaker 5: kind of avoid correlation and instead try to hit each

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Speaker 5: game on the slate rather than multiple bets in one game.

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Speaker 1: And then of course there's.

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Speaker 5: Key numbers, you know, three and seven for spreads, that

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Speaker 5: just means the games are going to land on that

347
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Speaker 5: the most. So if you're betting an underdog, a three

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Speaker 5: and a half is worth a lot more than a three,

349
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Speaker 5: and a plus seven and a half is worth a

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Speaker 5: lot more than a plus seven. And if you're betting

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Speaker 5: on a favorite, a minus two and a half is

352
00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:55,480
Speaker 5: worth a lot more than a minus three, and a

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Speaker 5: minus six and a half is worth a lot more

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Speaker 5: than a minus seven, because again, those are the most

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Speaker 5: common numbers that the games are going to land on.

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Speaker 1: For totals, there's a there's a.

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Speaker 5: Host of numbers, you know, forty one, just kind of

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Speaker 5: all the numbers that you know scores will kind of

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Speaker 5: add up to. Uh So key number is very important

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Speaker 5: because you always when we talk about kind of shopping

361
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Speaker 5: around getting the best line. If you can get like

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Speaker 5: a half point on and off or off a key number,

363
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Speaker 5: that's worth more than just a half point. So those

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Speaker 5: are some of the things that that I think you

365
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Speaker 5: have to look out for.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and that goes back to shopping around, especially it's

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Speaker 2: even it's always important, but especially around key numbers. And yeah,

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Speaker 2: if you can find a seven and a half on

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Speaker 2: underdog instead of a seven, that's a massive edge right there.

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Speaker 2: But it also should impact the timing of when you're

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Speaker 2: making that. So I said, you're you know it's for

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Speaker 2: a recreational better it's in the NFL specifically, it's better

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Speaker 2: to bet early in the week where the market is softer.

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Speaker 2: But if say you like a seven and a half

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Speaker 2: point favorite, and you know it's Monday or Tuesday, there's

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Speaker 2: no rush there. I mean, if it goes up to eight,

377
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Speaker 2: not a huge deal, a little bigger deal than it

378
00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:07,120
Speaker 2: used to be with more two point conversions, but that

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Speaker 2: the chance of it dropping down to seven and getting

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Speaker 2: a seven is massive weight for that monitor the market.

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Speaker 2: I find most of that is you know, schematically, you know,

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Speaker 2: I think that there's still some value cluster injuries schematic matchups,

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Speaker 2: matchups in the trenches, those are a little more advanced.

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Speaker 2: I think that just having an overarching philosophy of buying

385
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Speaker 2: low and selling high in the NFL, if you just, like,

386
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Speaker 2: if you just keep that in mind when you're betting again,

387
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Speaker 2: small sample size over the course of the season, it's

388
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Speaker 2: a league of parody, especially early in the season. Teams

389
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Speaker 2: are never as good or as bad as they seem

390
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Speaker 2: on their best in the worst weeks. So you know,

391
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Speaker 2: if the team you can look I mean just the

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Speaker 2: trend speak to this. You know, team gets blown out

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Speaker 2: by forty points and they look awful, especially early in

394
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Speaker 2: the week before you get the big money coming in,

395
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Speaker 2: you're probably gonna have an overreaction to that reult from

396
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Speaker 2: the weak prior. So if you're just buying low, selling high,

397
00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:07,600
Speaker 2: just keeping that overarching philosophy in mind, you'll be better

398
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Speaker 2: off than you know. Ninety nine percent of recreational betters.

399
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Speaker 3: Man, you guys came to play today, super comprehensive breakdown,

400
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Speaker 3: and I think probably a key takeaway from that is

401
00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:23,600
Speaker 3: just you need to establish your own betting model and

402
00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:27,600
Speaker 3: have a consistent process and not get sort of swayed

403
00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:32,359
Speaker 3: by narrative and you know your own biases so stuck

404
00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:36,160
Speaker 3: jumping off that. In terms of the parody in the NFL,

405
00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:40,280
Speaker 3: would you say that's one of the unique challenges in

406
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:43,840
Speaker 3: addition to the market being so sharp because it is

407
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Speaker 3: so popular.

408
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, it's it's going to be tough

409
00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:49,959
Speaker 2: for recreational better to build their own model, especially in

410
00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:51,480
Speaker 2: you know, if you want to build like a player

411
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:55,199
Speaker 2: prop model and focus on one specific area, if you

412
00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:58,680
Speaker 2: have the you know, the the kind of the skills

413
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,399
Speaker 2: to do that, then there are some opportunities there. But

414
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,119
Speaker 2: trying to build a model that's just going to beat

415
00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:08,400
Speaker 2: the market right now from scratch, if you're that's it's

416
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Speaker 2: very difficult to do. Plus in the NFL, I mean,

417
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:12,720
Speaker 2: my dog can pretty much tell you around where the

418
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:16,159
Speaker 2: line is going to be, So you're talking like fractional

419
00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:19,200
Speaker 2: edges just from a pure numbers perspective. It's a lot

420
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 2: more advanced than that. You can build a basic model

421
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 2: to and see how you do over time, but and

422
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 2: then you know, refine it get better. But it's only

423
00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:30,000
Speaker 2: going to get more difficult, and the market's only gonna

424
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:33,080
Speaker 2: get more efficient as more and more advanced models and

425
00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:37,119
Speaker 2: you know AI come in to play, but yeah, I

426
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,439
Speaker 2: think that just you can also look, there are only

427
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 2: a handful of teams in the NFL compared to college

428
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:45,920
Speaker 2: football college basketball. But if you want, if you're first

429
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 2: starting out and you want to get better, maybe take

430
00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:52,200
Speaker 2: take a division, take a conference, and really go deep.

431
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,040
Speaker 2: I mean, you know people have that are doing this

432
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,439
Speaker 2: recreation and have other jobs. You can't you know, follow

433
00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:59,080
Speaker 2: all the teams really in depth like we do. But

434
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Speaker 2: one of the things I try to do throughout the

435
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Speaker 2: week is just pick up a little little nugget here

436
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 2: or there from you know beat writers local podcast to

437
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 2: cover every team. I mean I'm listening on two x

438
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:14,400
Speaker 2: just throughout the entire week. You got to you listen

439
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 2: to an hour to pick out one little nugget and

440
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:19,080
Speaker 2: you say, okay, how does this impact this? Let me

441
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 2: take a deeper look at their coverage. So you know,

442
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:23,119
Speaker 2: if you want to, you know you're not gonna have

443
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 2: time to do that if you have a life and

444
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,800
Speaker 2: the family. So maybe focus on the division. Become you know,

445
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 2: an expert on you know, a handful of teams within

446
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 2: the NFL and start there. But yeah, it's a super

447
00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,399
Speaker 2: efficient market, especially late in the week, and you always

448
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:40,480
Speaker 2: have to remember that it's not easy to beat. So

449
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:42,920
Speaker 2: the best thing that you can do is avoid all

450
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:47,119
Speaker 2: those pitfalls that most recreational betters fall into, you know,

451
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:53,200
Speaker 2: the the chasing, not shopping around, tilting, putting in dumb bets.

452
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 2: All of those things are the easiest thing that you

453
00:21:55,800 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 2: can do to just cut out all of the excess

454
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:03,760
Speaker 2: losses that you're probably suffering. And then once you're there,

455
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,399
Speaker 2: that's those all the low hanging fruit that most betters

456
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 2: aren't aren't capturing. So focus on that to start track,

457
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,159
Speaker 2: see where you're getting better, find some people that you

458
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 2: trust to follow with a proven track record, and then

459
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 2: you'll be better off than you have been in prior seasons.

460
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,199
Speaker 2: And as Raybund hasled to and this goes back to

461
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 2: buying us on I don't be afraid of underdogs, don't

462
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:28,639
Speaker 2: be afraid of the ugly teams in the NFL. Chop around,

463
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 2: be aware of those key numbers and attack the softer

464
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 2: markets like crops, even some of your your wrong teasers,

465
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:37,679
Speaker 2: your six point teasers, across key numbers, and do it

466
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:40,960
Speaker 2: early in the week, but always be cognizant of those

467
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 2: key numbers.

468
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:45,679
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's like to piggyback on Stucky's point with the

469
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,439
Speaker 5: you know, creating your own model. That's gonna be really

470
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:52,240
Speaker 5: tough if you're just starting out, and as Ducky said,

471
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 5: you're probably talking about a fraction of a point and

472
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 5: you're gonna spend so much time trying to get the

473
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,440
Speaker 5: just get the basic model right. So I just think,

474
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,920
Speaker 5: you know, Stucky and I we create models because we've

475
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:06,960
Speaker 5: been doing this our whole life. We we want to

476
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 5: be able to quantify the little edges that we see.

477
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 5: But if you're just starting out, I say focus on

478
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 5: the edges because you know the remember the NFL, do

479
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:19,199
Speaker 5: you score in sixes and sevens and threes and so

480
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 5: any little edge is gonna be worth a lot more

481
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 5: than trying to get the exact like baseline number right

482
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 5: to like you know, half a point or a point.

483
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:31,440
Speaker 1: So like, if you want to focus on a specific

484
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:33,120
Speaker 1: type of edge, that could be your thing.

485
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 5: Like maybe you're the guy who just or the guy

486
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,119
Speaker 5: or gal who just focuses on offensive line injuries because

487
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:41,680
Speaker 5: you know, when team centers are out, they tend to

488
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,919
Speaker 5: struggle when the tackle, when the left tackle, especially or

489
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 5: the blind side tackle is out teams tend to struggle,

490
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 5: So maybe you just focus on injuries, maybe you focus

491
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,159
Speaker 5: on pressure. That's that's something I do a lot, Like

492
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 5: I'm always focused on the pressure matchup for every uh,

493
00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:58,399
Speaker 5: you know, every matchup, and that's a lot of my

494
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 5: bets are just Okay, I think.

495
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 1: This team is going to struggle.

496
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,439
Speaker 5: You know, this quarterback is going to struggle under pressure

497
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 5: more than is implied by the line.

498
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 1: So stucky.

499
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 5: He's really good with betting on teams coming off ugly performances,

500
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 5: like essentially buying low. Like he said, you know, a

501
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 5: team comes off a blowout. Sometimes if you look at

502
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 5: the trends for that team the next week, you know,

503
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 5: team's off a twenty point blowout or things like that,

504
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 5: they usually hit sixty plus percent of the time. So

505
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:28,119
Speaker 5: you can kind of focus on whatever edge that you

506
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 5: feel like you have a good grip on and just

507
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:34,360
Speaker 5: and and that will be a lot more valuable than

508
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 5: feeling like you have to first get exactly you know,

509
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 5: get that baseline exactly right. Like that's something that we

510
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:43,479
Speaker 5: do because we want to be able to be exact,

511
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 5: and we want to be able to give you the

512
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 5: exact numbers and tell you exactly when to where to

513
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 5: bed a line to it and things like that.

514
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 1: But if you're just starting.

515
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 5: Out, just focus on the edges, because the standard deviation

516
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 5: is going to be so much higher for those little

517
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:57,959
Speaker 5: edges than it's going to be for you know, getting

518
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,680
Speaker 5: a line, you know, projecting a line a point or

519
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 5: two within a point or two, and then you're still

520
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 5: going to have to make the adjustments that are going

521
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:05,400
Speaker 5: to actually give you the edge.

522
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,880
Speaker 1: So focus on the edges. I would say that that's

523
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 1: kind of the shortcut.

524
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 5: And and if you're tracking what you're doing, you're going

525
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 5: to kind of get the hang of it over time, even.

526
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 1: If it doesn't work out you know the first few times.

527
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 3: Right, This is all kind of a lot to take in,

528
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 3: which is why again following folks that already put the

529
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,640
Speaker 3: work in, like yourselves, who have betting models, I mean,

530
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,400
Speaker 3: that's that's going to be the real key to starting

531
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,400
Speaker 3: out and then sort of developing your.

532
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 4: Own process for those edges.

533
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,640
Speaker 3: And to that end, I mean, I wouldn't be opposed

534
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 3: to Stucky's dog having an account in the action app

535
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 3: because you know, his betting model or her betting model.

536
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 4: Might be might be halfway decent.

537
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,720
Speaker 3: So look, we've talked about some of the challenges. Sucky

538
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 3: also mentioned some of the tools and resources that maybe

539
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:04,440
Speaker 3: we should have to refer to in our toolkit, such

540
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 3: as like you know, certain accounts to follow. Was there

541
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 3: anything else you wanted to add? They're Stucky as far

542
00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 3: as just like data points that you really need to

543
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 3: know or any other like tools.

544
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:18,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, if you're getting really advanced, there's lots

545
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:20,879
Speaker 2: of there's lots of things that you can scrape to

546
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 2: pull into models. There's lots of resources there and that aspect.

547
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:28,199
Speaker 2: There's tons of sites too. Like you like PFF is

548
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,240
Speaker 2: they're going to grade every player. You have sites like

549
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 2: sis that are gonna you're gonna look at schemes and

550
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:36,679
Speaker 2: how some quarterbacks do against zone and man, what what

551
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:40,639
Speaker 2: defensive schemes certain teams are playing and you know, so

552
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:42,919
Speaker 2: there's a ton I mean, they're gonna cost you money.

553
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 2: Uh and also there other people are buying them, so

554
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:50,359
Speaker 2: be aware that it's public. And but I also I

555
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,639
Speaker 2: think that you can be aware that there are some

556
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 2: limitations in those Like I think PFF does a great job,

557
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 2: but I think that there's some flaws in how they

558
00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 2: grade cornerbacks. And and secondaries and general so there you

559
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 2: can potentially find some edges if you can find a

560
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:08,399
Speaker 2: way that you disagree with some of these public resources

561
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 2: out there, tons of beat writers, i mean, the NFL's

562
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:15,439
Speaker 2: covered so in depth. Also just go go to you know,

563
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,439
Speaker 2: there's we have a bot that's going to tweet out

564
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 2: all the updates about account from every single beat writer

565
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:26,080
Speaker 2: in the NFL. I'll always retweeted during the season. But

566
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 2: you can follow. There's even local podcasts for every team.

567
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:33,360
Speaker 2: There's multiple You can find some really really good smart

568
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:36,440
Speaker 2: people that are covering teams and it might they might

569
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 2: not be great at betting, but you can find little

570
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 2: nuggets here and there because they're so entrenched in following

571
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,400
Speaker 2: their team. That's they're living, dying, breathing on their one

572
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 2: team and then they're going to try and summarize them

573
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:49,879
Speaker 2: in a couple hours a week. So if you have

574
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 2: the time, and again if you don't, this is why

575
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 2: you want to focus maybe on a couple of teams.

576
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:56,640
Speaker 2: There's a lot of great resources out it's just trying

577
00:27:56,680 --> 00:28:00,120
Speaker 2: to find okay, and then there's great there's podcasts, there's

578
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:03,879
Speaker 2: articles you want to really matter, it's up to you

579
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:05,640
Speaker 2: know it's gonna be you get to personalize it based

580
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 2: on the amount of time that you have to spend

581
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 2: on this during the week, based on all of your

582
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,640
Speaker 2: other obligations. So you want to just, you know, try

583
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 2: and see what's out there, give a lot of different

584
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 2: things a chance, and then find Okay, what's the best

585
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:20,360
Speaker 2: balance of what do I need to listen to, who

586
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 2: do I trust, who has approven track record? But yeah,

587
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 2: there's there's so many different resources out there. There's a

588
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 2: lot of there's a lot of sites out there where

589
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 2: you can get very analytical, and then there's also just

590
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:37,160
Speaker 2: great podcasts, locally focused, generally focused. So there's just there's

591
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 2: an unlimited amount of resources because the NFL is covered

592
00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 2: so in depth. It's just a matter of finding the

593
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 2: right balance which works for your life. And that's a constant.

594
00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:52,480
Speaker 2: That's a process that I refine every single season. Every

595
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 2: single week. It's like, Okay, I'm not really finding too

596
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 2: much value from listening to this podcast. Oh this person's

597
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 2: writing some interesting things. I'm gonna check them out. So

598
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 2: it's a it's not a thing where you just figure

599
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 2: it out once. It's a constant, changing, evolving process.

600
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 3: Cool Raybon any other resources that you specifically wanted to.

601
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 4: Tack onto that.

602
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think I think the Action app first and foremost.

603
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 5: You know, even if I did not work here, I

604
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 5: swear I would use this app every day when I bet,

605
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 5: because not only can you view all the lines at

606
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 5: all the books and kind of customize it whatever books

607
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 5: you have, but you can also look at the amount

608
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 5: of money and and bets on each team.

609
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 1: You can set alerts for when a line hits.

610
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 5: You know, maybe you're waiting for a line that's plus

611
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 5: seven to get to seven and a half.

612
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 1: You can get an alert when it does.

613
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 5: You can get an alert, you know, when a game

614
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 5: is about to start, or just anything like that. So

615
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 5: and of course you can get alerts when I post

616
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 5: a pick, or Stucky post a pick, or Sean Kerner

617
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 5: post a pick, or anybody that you choose.

618
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 1: Oh, I think the app is very crucial. And you

619
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 1: can also.

620
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 5: Track all your bets, you know, even and you can

621
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 5: even put you know, zero units if you want to

622
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 5: just track those bets that you know you were thinking

623
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 5: about but didn't want to actually play.

624
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 1: So I think that's the number one thing.

625
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 5: And then as Stuck he said, you know, football outsiders,

626
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 5: PFF Sports Info solutions, Pro Football Reference is what I

627
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 5: don't think we've mentioned yet. That's a good one to

628
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 5: just pull in, you know, all the basic NFL team

629
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:29,920
Speaker 5: and player stats. I always work in game logs because

630
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 5: that helps me. You know, let's say I'm trying to

631
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 5: see what a team looks like with a certain player

632
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 5: out for a number of games. I can just kind

633
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 5: of filter for the game logs that he's out versus

634
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 5: the game logs that he played, and things like that.

635
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 5: So I always import all team and player game logs

636
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 5: into into a spreadsheet. Again, that's if you're going the

637
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 5: data route. The Athletic is a really good source. It's

638
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 5: it's subscription, but I find their beat writers are a

639
00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 5: little bit above some of the rest, so I always

640
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,640
Speaker 5: kind of check out them for what stuck you mentioned.

641
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 1: You know, they're going to have that expert knowledge of

642
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 1: their team.

643
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 5: And a lot of times when you when you talk

644
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 5: about finding an edge, a lot of times it will

645
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 5: be something that I read in a from a beat

646
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 5: writer that inspires me like looking deeper into.

647
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 1: An edge that I end up finding.

648
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 5: So maybe a beat writer will mention a certain scheme

649
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 5: or a certain you know thing that a certain player

650
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 5: or or unit on the team is good or bad at,

651
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 5: and you kind of dig deeper into that that might

652
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:32,560
Speaker 5: be your edge. So don't underestimate that, don't just look

653
00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:35,480
Speaker 5: for betting content, because what's going to happen is if.

654
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:39,960
Speaker 1: You try to over consume only betting content, you're.

655
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 5: Going to eventually run into a situation where Stucky and

656
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 5: I are on the chiefs and this other person that

657
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 5: you follow is on the opposite side, they're on the

658
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 5: lines or something like that. So, you know, you you

659
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 5: want to get it to where you're not just you're,

660
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 5: you know, kind of running in circles with all these

661
00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:59,840
Speaker 5: picks from everybody, and you're not you're back at square

662
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 5: one again. And also, you know, Maria, you asked about

663
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 5: the challenges to the NFL earlier. I think one of

664
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 5: the big ones that we haven't fully mentioned is that

665
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 5: it's not just parody, and it's not just that there's

666
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 5: a lot of luck in the NFL.

667
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 1: It's that the schedule is very limited.

668
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 5: So a lot of times you're gonna be able to

669
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 5: find an edge by schedule adjusting numbers. And that's why

670
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 5: I think Football Outsiders is a great resource for people

671
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,080
Speaker 5: that don't necessarily want to build their own models, because

672
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 5: DVOA is schedule adjusted and it's offense, defense, special team,

673
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 5: So a lot of times you could just look at

674
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 5: that and get a much better idea, and those numbers

675
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 5: won't necessarily match like the market all the time. Like

676
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 5: I remember last season the Giants Vikings game, you know,

677
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 5: DVOA had. The Vikings is like a bottom five or

678
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 5: bottom sixteen overall, and I'm like, how has this team

679
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:57,719
Speaker 5: even favored right now? Much less favored by more than

680
00:32:57,720 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 5: a field goal. I was like, Giants are the better team,

681
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 5: and that was something like I had other reasons and

682
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 5: a lot of points for feeling like that, but I

683
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 5: could have just gone straight to DVLA and said, look,

684
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 5: the Vikings are like twenty six and the Giants of

685
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 5: twenty first, Giants are the better team. Home field advantage

686
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:14,719
Speaker 5: isn't worth you know, five points or whatever. They were

687
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 5: giving the Vikings so thin. That's crucial, you know, for

688
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:21,880
Speaker 5: you know, for I think a novice, even if you're

689
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 5: not creating a model or anything, just being able to

690
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 5: look at a schedule adjusted metric, because remember, you're only

691
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 5: playing fourteen unique opponents in a season, So you know

692
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 5: that that's less than half the league. So a lot

693
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 5: of times you're gonna get an edge because the team

694
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 5: looks like one way one week and then next week

695
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:44,600
Speaker 5: whole different opponent. They look completely different, and you're gonna

696
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 5: get an edged that way. So be be aware of

697
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 5: the strength of schedule, schedule adjustments and things like that.

698
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 1: And I think Football Outsiders is a great one for.

699
00:33:54,840 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 3: That, so much great advice here on the Experts Guide

700
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 3: to Betting NFL on the Action Network podcast. We do

701
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 3: have just a few more things we want to touch

702
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 3: on before we wrap up, and one of them was

703
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:11,800
Speaker 3: teased at the beginning of the show. That's the NFL

704
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 3: off season and preseason. Stucky, you indicate it you're not

705
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 3: a big fan of, you know, doing too much in

706
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:21,720
Speaker 3: the preseason.

707
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,720
Speaker 4: But I guess, so I guess, Raymond.

708
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 3: I'll start with you, like, what do you need to

709
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 3: just stay on top of during the NFL off season?

710
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 3: What are you doing right now to prep for the season.

711
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 5: Well, one of the key things, and this is for

712
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 5: I would say intermediate to advance.

713
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 2: But.

714
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:42,840
Speaker 5: I think this is where even a lot of people

715
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 5: that do make their models or some kind of model

716
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:48,359
Speaker 5: and kind of know what they're doing, they still get

717
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 5: this wrong. So you have to incorporate prior season data

718
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 5: into your ratings or rankings or whatever you're using. So

719
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:01,280
Speaker 5: I just a lot of quote uns vote sharp betters

720
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:03,439
Speaker 5: that say, oh, I'm not even gonna bet to week

721
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 5: five because I want to get you know, four weeks

722
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:08,919
Speaker 5: of data in. But it's like, no, Like, you don't

723
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 5: need four weeks of Patrick Mahomes quarterbacking the Chiefs offense

724
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:17,280
Speaker 5: to give you information about, uh, you know, the Chiefs offense.

725
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:19,880
Speaker 5: You have like five seasons of that. So you just

726
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 5: have to know how much to use of that and

727
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,000
Speaker 5: how much to regress to the mean. And that's where

728
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 5: you know, modeling comes in and you run your regressions

729
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 5: and different things like that.

730
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 2: But you apposed the entire markets will have four weeks

731
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 2: of data. I mean, you're not there exactly.

732
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, So it's like a big thing.

733
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:38,320
Speaker 5: A big thing that I do is I'm always using

734
00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:40,879
Speaker 5: some form of prior data.

735
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:42,800
Speaker 1: Now that changes for different stats.

736
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 5: Like for example, you know, turnovers are like very random,

737
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:50,960
Speaker 5: So like when I'm projecting a quarterbacks interception rate, I

738
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:54,000
Speaker 5: might have to use his entire career because you know,

739
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 5: it doesn't even get to like fifty to fifty, you know,

740
00:35:56,560 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 5: fifty percent regression fifty percent actual stat until about out

741
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 5: seventeen hundred pass attempts.

742
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 1: Which is like four or five seasons for most quarterbacks.

743
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 5: Whereas you might have like a stat like yards per attempt,

744
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 5: which is, uh, you know, stabilizes a lot quicker, So

745
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 5: you could throw out a lot of the older stuff.

746
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 5: You want to look at the more recent stuff because

747
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:16,319
Speaker 5: obviously that depends on you know, the receivers and the

748
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 5: O line and things like that a little more you know,

749
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 5: a little more current, so you just but you do

750
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 5: want to you know, draw upon prior season data. So

751
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 5: that's what I'm doing, is I'm kind of updating my

752
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 5: ratings for.

753
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 1: You know, as I'm going into week one.

754
00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:34,759
Speaker 5: It's like, okay, it doesn't it doesn't just pick up

755
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 5: where it left off last season because a lot of

756
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,279
Speaker 5: time has passed. You're going to apply a little bit

757
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:41,240
Speaker 5: of regression because it's going to be able to randomness

758
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 5: with you know, guys aging and things changing and roster turnover.

759
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 5: But you do want to incorporate pass season data, and

760
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:50,080
Speaker 5: I do think that's an edge even over some of

761
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:53,799
Speaker 5: the you know the sharper betters and groups that a

762
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 5: lot of times are just using a lot more current

763
00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 5: season data, which is going to be a lot more

764
00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:04,320
Speaker 5: volatile because sixteen games is just not enough for for example,

765
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 5: a lot of stats take more than sixteens games to

766
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 5: even hit fifty percent you know scale fifty percent luck

767
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:12,880
Speaker 5: or you know, fifty percent regression fifty percent true stats.

768
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 1: So you just kind of that that's one thing I

769
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 1: think is big.

770
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 5: Another thing if you're betting totals, yeah, Pro Football Reference

771
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:21,720
Speaker 5: has a page called NFL League Averages.

772
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 1: It goes year by year.

773
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:24,440
Speaker 5: It just gives you the averages for everything, you know,

774
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 5: passive times, points, all these different things. Check on those

775
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 5: and update your those assumptions because like for example, in

776
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:37,799
Speaker 5: twenty twenty, when there was no like the crowd wasn't

777
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:39,880
Speaker 5: as much of a factor, we saw a scoring go up.

778
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:41,840
Speaker 5: Then the last couple of years they change the penalty

779
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 5: rules of it, and we saw things changed with that,

780
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:47,360
Speaker 5: you know scoring. You know, when they change the offensive

781
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,160
Speaker 5: holding rules, they change the kickoff touchback rules at five

782
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:52,720
Speaker 5: extra yards. If you're doing like a point per yard model,

783
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 5: that's something you need to know because now teams.

784
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 1: The field position is going to be a little different.

785
00:37:56,680 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 5: So things like that when you're betting totals, are knowing

786
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 5: the league averages and updating those are crucial because they

787
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:07,240
Speaker 5: are changing ever so slightly, and when you're talking about

788
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:09,719
Speaker 5: you know, a point here, half a point there for

789
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 5: a total, that could add up very quickly. So I

790
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 5: think that that's really important. And again also the home

791
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 5: field advantage, that's something where it's been changing over the

792
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:22,439
Speaker 5: It's been dwindling for the most part over these last

793
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 5: five to ten years. So that's also something where you

794
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:28,720
Speaker 5: can just go and Pro Football Reference, you know, import

795
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 5: the game logs for for all the games of last

796
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 5: season and just look at the home team point differential.

797
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 1: Versus the road team.

798
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:36,319
Speaker 5: Or they even have an app called stat heead on

799
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:40,800
Speaker 5: Pro Football Reference. I believe it's subscription based, but you

800
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:42,239
Speaker 5: can you could just kind of do the math for

801
00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:44,279
Speaker 5: you just look at all the home teams and their

802
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 5: point differentials. But you want to keep, you know, be

803
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 5: aware of the home field advantage and then you know

804
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 5: it's different for different teams. So if you want to

805
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 5: go back, you can actually look at you know, data

806
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 5: going further back to kind of get it for different

807
00:38:58,160 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 5: teams because a lot of times when you look at

808
00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:03,120
Speaker 5: a line and you you don't understand exactly why it is,

809
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 5: it might be okay, well Kansas City, Green Bay, they

810
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 5: have bigger in New Orleans, they have bigger home field

811
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 5: advantages than it seemed like Cincinnati, uh, for example, or

812
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:14,239
Speaker 5: the Chargers. And sometimes when like just as just a

813
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 5: tip that people forget, but like let's say the Browns

814
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:22,120
Speaker 5: are playing the Bengals, like they're both in Ohio, there's

815
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:25,439
Speaker 5: really no home field advantage to speak of, like either way.

816
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:28,880
Speaker 5: So you know, things like that, you always want to

817
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:30,239
Speaker 5: keep them by. But yeah, the off season, I think

818
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 5: it's updating league averages, uh, you know, if there's any

819
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 5: route changes, trying to account for those with how you

820
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:38,839
Speaker 5: think the league average could change. Uh, and kind of

821
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:43,560
Speaker 5: just reviewing the home field advantage and using the last seasons,

822
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 5: like updating last season's numbers and prior season numbers into

823
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:48,720
Speaker 5: a rating for for the current season.

824
00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:51,720
Speaker 1: If you're if you're doing like advanced modeling, Yeah, that's.

825
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:54,919
Speaker 2: I spend That's what I'm spending my entire offseason doing.

826
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:58,359
Speaker 2: You have your end of season power ratings from last year,

827
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 2: then you go back and you want to analyze them. Okay,

828
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 2: where was I off on a team? Do I want

829
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 2: to look a little deeper and then be comfortable with

830
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:08,239
Speaker 2: where my model and where might you know basically where

831
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 2: the league stands at the end of last season, and

832
00:40:11,239 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 2: then you're adjusting them for age, free agency, trades, draft

833
00:40:17,680 --> 00:40:20,360
Speaker 2: coaching changes, and then you want to get comfortable with

834
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 2: where your starting point is for this coming season. And

835
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 2: then as raybun alluded to that, those are basically your

836
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 2: adjusted prior numbers. And then as the season goes on,

837
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 2: you want to continue to use them, but you kind

838
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 2: of reduce the amount that you're using them over time

839
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 2: as you get more data, you know, so your priors

840
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,280
Speaker 2: will not mean as much kind of a blended powerating

841
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 2: you know, in week ten as they do in week one.

842
00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 2: As it comes when it comes to preseason, and I'll

843
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:51,360
Speaker 2: just set up ray bound here. Because the market is softer,

844
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:53,960
Speaker 2: it's a sharp vetter's sharps can make a ton of

845
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,640
Speaker 2: money betting preseason. It's a lot softer, a lot more

846
00:40:56,680 --> 00:41:00,239
Speaker 2: inefficient because if you have a really good This goes

847
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:02,760
Speaker 2: back to props too. If you have a really good player,

848
00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:05,400
Speaker 2: you know, there's a lot of correlation. If you have

849
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 2: a really good player prop model, you can beat the market. Now,

850
00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:11,799
Speaker 2: the limits aren't going to be ridiculous, but and that's

851
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:13,360
Speaker 2: one of the reasons why you can beat it. But

852
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:18,440
Speaker 2: preseason's all about figuring out who's going to play and

853
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:20,600
Speaker 2: how much, and that could de couldly come down to

854
00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:24,279
Speaker 2: props or the spread. There's also coaching that matters, you know,

855
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 2: like the Ravens who have a lot of depth and

856
00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:28,440
Speaker 2: we're a really good coaching step, which is why they

857
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:30,879
Speaker 2: always cover. But preseason is all about just figuring out

858
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 2: who's going to play and for how long And then

859
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 2: if you can model that right, you can beat preseason,

860
00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 2: just like you can beat player props during the regular season.

861
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 4: Amazing.

862
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:44,480
Speaker 3: Just a few more points we want to cover here

863
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 3: before we go stucky, Let's get a little granular with it.

864
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:52,759
Speaker 3: Could you just describe an ideal betting opportunity for you

865
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:55,120
Speaker 3: personally heading into an NFL game.

866
00:41:55,560 --> 00:42:01,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll use a real world example from my biggest,

867
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:05,240
Speaker 2: biggest win that I've ever had was November twenty nineteen.

868
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:10,719
Speaker 2: The Patriots I think were eight to no and the

869
00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 2: Ravens were I think five to two coming off of

870
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 2: a bye at home. It was I think it was

871
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 2: a Sunday night or Monday night game. But the Patriots

872
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 2: were yes eight and no. With Tom Brady Belichick, they

873
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 2: have the market name recognition, but they were a fraudulent

874
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 2: eight No. I mean, the turnover luck was extreme. They

875
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:31,560
Speaker 2: played a bunch of backups, they had holes in their defense,

876
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:35,840
Speaker 2: and they were just right for the picking. So this

877
00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:38,719
Speaker 2: is buying love, so selling high on the Patriots. The

878
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:41,640
Speaker 2: Ravens were also coming off a bye car Ball, great staff,

879
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 2: amazing off the bye, one of the coaches that I

880
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 2: actually give a significant bump for. And this line and

881
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 2: the matchup the Ravens with Lamar Jackson heavy rush attack.

882
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:58,399
Speaker 2: The Patriots run defense was extremely vulnerable if you kind

883
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:01,680
Speaker 2: of looked under the hood a bit, and so this

884
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:03,879
Speaker 2: kind of hits everything. And then this line came out

885
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:05,800
Speaker 2: the week before. I think it opened at like six,

886
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:09,239
Speaker 2: which was insane. Immediately got bet came down and they

887
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:11,759
Speaker 2: kept coming down. I think it closed like three later

888
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:13,880
Speaker 2: the season. The Ravens would have been favored in the

889
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 2: spot and the Ravens so I think we're up by

890
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:17,320
Speaker 2: like twenty one at one point that went by. I

891
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 2: think they won by fourteen or seventeen. So this had everything.

892
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:23,919
Speaker 2: This was selling high, you know, kind of getting under

893
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 2: the hood of a team, the matchup, betting early in

894
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 2: the week, dropping around, beating the market. He kind of

895
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:34,919
Speaker 2: got a coaching angle, schedule angle in there, and yeah,

896
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:38,759
Speaker 2: that's the kind of one of my biggest win ever

897
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:41,640
Speaker 2: in the NFL and kind of hit all of the

898
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:43,560
Speaker 2: things that I'm looking for at once.

899
00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 4: That is super thrilling.

900
00:43:46,120 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 3: We're going to get Raven's ultimate thrill betting an NFL

901
00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 3: game as well. But first I just want to touch

902
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 3: on live betting rayveon any thoughts on live betting NFL

903
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:00,480
Speaker 3: or best practice is there.

904
00:44:01,480 --> 00:44:03,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, the first thing is I would say limit your

905
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:07,400
Speaker 5: your unit size. So the same way I mentioned you

906
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:09,399
Speaker 5: don't want to have too much exposure to one game

907
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 5: uh pregame, you also don't want to have too much

908
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 5: exposure to a game live, especially because that's when you

909
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:18,919
Speaker 5: know all those biases that stuck you talked about those

910
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:21,359
Speaker 5: tend to come out. You start chasing or you get overconfident.

911
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:24,160
Speaker 5: So I generally would say have a plan going in,

912
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 5: Like for example, maybe you like and an underdog, but

913
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:32,960
Speaker 5: they haven't moved off seven and you figure hey, if

914
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:35,920
Speaker 5: if you know, if the other team scores first, that

915
00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 5: line is going to go to to probably ten ten

916
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:40,360
Speaker 5: and a half, maybe even more if they score a touchdown.

917
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:42,759
Speaker 1: So, uh, you know, kind of just.

918
00:44:42,840 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 5: Looking for a bet that you would already feel comfortable pregame,

919
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 5: but trying to get a better number if you know

920
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 5: the you know thing you know, uh, like a certain

921
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:54,719
Speaker 5: event happens, like the other you know, the opposite side

922
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:57,400
Speaker 5: scoring first, or if you're betting an under, maybe you know,

923
00:44:57,800 --> 00:45:00,279
Speaker 5: you know teams, you know, the score a little higher

924
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:02,440
Speaker 5: than you expect it in the first quarter, things like that.

925
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:04,880
Speaker 5: That's generally my approach, and I would generally restrict it

926
00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 5: to like a half unit if I'm usually betting full

927
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 5: units on games pregame, because you just want to be careful.

928
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:15,760
Speaker 5: There's more variant and also a lot of times books

929
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:18,880
Speaker 5: are juicing up these in game live lines. So you know,

930
00:45:19,280 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 5: usually a standard bet is minus one ten if you're

931
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:25,719
Speaker 5: betting a side or a total, but to bet that

932
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:29,320
Speaker 5: same side in game, it might be minus one fifteen,

933
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 5: minus one twenty, so you're already losing some of the

934
00:45:32,120 --> 00:45:35,880
Speaker 5: edge there, so you really want to be careful with that.

935
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:39,280
Speaker 5: But the only other times I really would suggest going

936
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:42,200
Speaker 5: in on a live bet is if you if a

937
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 5: key player gets injured, and you know a lot of

938
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 5: times these these these live lines are algorithm based, and

939
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:52,440
Speaker 5: so if you know if Tyreek kill goes down or

940
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:54,960
Speaker 5: to a tongue of Iloa, that the line might not

941
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:58,719
Speaker 5: necessarily reflect that, at least immediately. So if you can

942
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 5: get that lot that in quick on the opposite team, uh,

943
00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 5: you you're gonna be in a plus EV situation.

944
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 1: But that's that's basically.

945
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:09,840
Speaker 5: The the The only time I kind of go without

946
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 5: having a plan going in is if just a key

947
00:46:12,719 --> 00:46:14,960
Speaker 5: player gets hurt in game.

948
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:17,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would, I would agree with that. This is

949
00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:21,080
Speaker 2: you know, this is for recreational better, so you can

950
00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 2: I think for the most part recreation I can get

951
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:27,719
Speaker 2: themselves in more trouble betting lie. Then there's also delays

952
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 2: from what you're seeing to the one you actually get

953
00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:34,400
Speaker 2: your bet in if it is accepted. So yeah, but

954
00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 2: it goes I think that I was gonna say the

955
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 2: same thing, have a plan. So if you liked an

956
00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 2: underdog and it was you know, sitting at six and

957
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:43,920
Speaker 2: a half all week and never got to that seven,

958
00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:47,080
Speaker 2: you wanted the seven, that's okay. Don't force your bet

959
00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:48,720
Speaker 2: you can. You have a sweat in and of itself

960
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:50,839
Speaker 2: saying oh, maybe i'll get a better number. Let's root

961
00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:53,239
Speaker 2: for the other team to score first, and then I'll

962
00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:55,560
Speaker 2: get my better number. And you go into the game

963
00:46:55,600 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 2: saying I want this underdog get you know, seven plus,

964
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:01,760
Speaker 2: and then you know adjusted based on what you're seeing,

965
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 2: you might say, oh, you know what, I don't like

966
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:05,399
Speaker 2: what I saw on that first drive. But I think

967
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:07,560
Speaker 2: having a plan going in and then of course shop around,

968
00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 2: you could see even more variants and different lines that

969
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 2: are offered. Again, keep key numbers in mind when it

970
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:17,759
Speaker 2: comes to live betting. But I would agree with that before.

971
00:47:18,160 --> 00:47:20,759
Speaker 5: Oh sorry, I was gonna say, just to add on

972
00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:24,080
Speaker 5: to that, like before you place a live bet, I

973
00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:27,480
Speaker 5: would recommend like for it usually works best with an

974
00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 5: island game or game where you're just watching that one game,

975
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:32,719
Speaker 5: whatever game that may be. But just keep your app

976
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 5: open or whatever sites or books you bet on, and

977
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:39,400
Speaker 5: just watch the live line change as things happen in

978
00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:41,879
Speaker 5: the game. So like you know, there'll be times where

979
00:47:41,920 --> 00:47:44,879
Speaker 5: no one's scoring as and time is passing, watch how

980
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:47,640
Speaker 5: the live line changes. There'll be times when a team

981
00:47:47,719 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 5: goes and scores, you know, a touchdown on a drive,

982
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:52,320
Speaker 5: how does the line change?

983
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:55,440
Speaker 1: So just kind of get an idea of how.

984
00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:57,560
Speaker 5: The line moves and where you think you see the

985
00:47:57,719 --> 00:48:01,280
Speaker 5: edges are first, and then you'll be a lot more prepared,

986
00:48:01,640 --> 00:48:05,800
Speaker 5: you know, when you're actually looking for something specific going forward.

987
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:07,319
Speaker 5: But I think it's always a good idea to just

988
00:48:07,320 --> 00:48:08,760
Speaker 5: get an idea of how.

989
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 1: The line moves, because again it's all algorithm based.

990
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 5: They're gonna the books are gonna start with the pregame

991
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:15,640
Speaker 5: line or whatever they thought was the true line for

992
00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:17,880
Speaker 5: the pregame line, and then it's probably gonna be some

993
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:21,719
Speaker 5: type of like points per drive, you know, epa type

994
00:48:21,719 --> 00:48:24,120
Speaker 5: of situation where you know, if it's like third and

995
00:48:24,200 --> 00:48:27,399
Speaker 5: ten in field goal range, you know there's probably gonna

996
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:31,040
Speaker 5: be like a three, like three expected points that the

997
00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 5: line is probably gonna go toward that way. And then

998
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:34,879
Speaker 5: you know, if a team has like first and goal,

999
00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:37,080
Speaker 5: the line's gonna be a lot closer to you know,

1000
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:38,400
Speaker 5: that full six or seven.

1001
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:40,120
Speaker 1: So it's like just kind.

1002
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:42,320
Speaker 5: Of getting an idea of how the books are moving

1003
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 5: lines with all the different situations and likelihoods of a

1004
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:49,920
Speaker 5: team scoring so I think that that's that's pretty that's

1005
00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:52,880
Speaker 5: pretty key. And you can also if you have Action Labs,

1006
00:48:53,080 --> 00:48:56,359
Speaker 5: a great tool. I use it every week. It can

1007
00:48:56,440 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 5: save trends for you and things like that. But Action

1008
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:01,360
Speaker 5: Labs has a second half filter, so you can build

1009
00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 5: trends specifically for second halves of games.

1010
00:49:04,120 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 1: So for example, let's.

1011
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 5: Say a favorite of double digits is down by double

1012
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:11,480
Speaker 5: digits at the half. You know, that might be a

1013
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:13,680
Speaker 5: good time to bet that favorite in the second half,

1014
00:49:13,840 --> 00:49:15,200
Speaker 5: or it might be a good time to fade them

1015
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:17,799
Speaker 5: because everyone thinks that the team is gonna come back.

1016
00:49:17,800 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 1: But either way, Action Labs will.

1017
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:22,520
Speaker 5: Tell you, you know, what what the trend is and

1018
00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:25,600
Speaker 5: what the what the optimal way to go about that is,

1019
00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:27,480
Speaker 5: and it will give you an alert if it if

1020
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:30,799
Speaker 5: it applies to this specific game, to any specific game,

1021
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:32,840
Speaker 5: So like you can get an alert if you're watching

1022
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:35,239
Speaker 5: Chiefs Lions and it's like, okay, bet the lines in

1023
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 5: the second half because of X, Y and Z, Action

1024
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:39,920
Speaker 5: Labs will give you an alert on your phone, on

1025
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:41,839
Speaker 5: your email, all that stuff, and then you can go

1026
00:49:42,120 --> 00:49:43,880
Speaker 5: bet that and it's the same thing as betting, Like

1027
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:46,400
Speaker 5: a live line for the game is just you know,

1028
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:48,359
Speaker 5: betting based on the second half, but at least there's

1029
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:50,600
Speaker 5: like a you're betting during like a break where you

1030
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:54,200
Speaker 5: can kind of calibrate and make a smarter bet. So

1031
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:56,120
Speaker 5: so that's another thing to consider as well.

1032
00:49:56,760 --> 00:50:01,280
Speaker 3: All Right, this has been nearly an hour long masterclass

1033
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:02,920
Speaker 3: on betting the NFL.

1034
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:05,840
Speaker 4: Let's end with this stuck.

1035
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:09,560
Speaker 3: You already shared his biggest win ever November twenty nineteen

1036
00:50:10,239 --> 00:50:14,399
Speaker 3: Pats taking on the Ravens. Raymond, what has been your

1037
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:16,440
Speaker 3: ultimate thrill betting the NFL?

1038
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:20,960
Speaker 5: I think it was there was I think it was

1039
00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:25,400
Speaker 5: the year Cam Newton was the last year Cam Newton

1040
00:50:25,400 --> 00:50:29,040
Speaker 5: was quarterback in the Patriots. They were facing the Rams.

1041
00:50:29,080 --> 00:50:31,319
Speaker 5: I think it was a Thursday night game. But I

1042
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:34,960
Speaker 5: just remember thinking, like, there's no way this dude, Cam

1043
00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 5: Newton like gets passing yards in this game, Like there's

1044
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:39,840
Speaker 5: gonna be too much pressure.

1045
00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:41,480
Speaker 1: They have no receiver.

1046
00:50:41,600 --> 00:50:45,560
Speaker 5: So I just banged like every Cam Newton under like attempts,

1047
00:50:45,800 --> 00:50:49,640
Speaker 5: passing yards, like everything, and he got benched. I believe

1048
00:50:49,640 --> 00:50:51,680
Speaker 5: he got benched like in the like the first or

1049
00:50:51,719 --> 00:50:54,759
Speaker 5: second quarter. He was terrible, So like that that was

1050
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:57,200
Speaker 5: really fun, or maybe just that ray Ray mccod under

1051
00:50:57,239 --> 00:50:59,640
Speaker 5: half the yard those are those are always fun as well.

1052
00:50:59,680 --> 00:51:02,880
Speaker 5: But as far as like a multi bet win, the

1053
00:51:02,960 --> 00:51:05,040
Speaker 5: Cam Newton one sticks out because it's always great when

1054
00:51:05,080 --> 00:51:08,560
Speaker 5: you bet a quarterback under and he gets benched.

1055
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:11,040
Speaker 1: That is like the ultimate. That's the ultimate.

1056
00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:16,919
Speaker 3: Remember to bet those unders. Chris Raybon and Stucky, thank

1057
00:51:16,960 --> 00:51:20,560
Speaker 3: you so much for taking me to school. Truly super

1058
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:24,120
Speaker 3: super fun time. Once again, I'm Maria Marino. Be sure

1059
00:51:24,160 --> 00:51:28,120
Speaker 3: to look out for future Experts Guide episodes on fantasy

1060
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 3: football and player props coming soon, and if you haven't already,

1061
00:51:32,160 --> 00:51:37,240
Speaker 3: check out our other Experts Guide to betting episodes for NBA, NHL, MLB,

1062
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:41,920
Speaker 3: European Soccer and UFC Right here on The Action Network

1063
00:51:41,960 --> 00:51:51,839
Speaker 3: podcast presented by Sanduel. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1064
00:51:52,239 --> 00:51:55,080
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1065
00:51:55,360 --> 00:51:58,000
Speaker 2: help us available twenty four to seven at one eight

1066
00:51:58,080 --> 00:51:58,880
Speaker 2: hundred Gambler