Speaker 1: What's up, friends, and welcome back to Fantasy pros. This
Speaker 1: is the Fantasy Football Podcast. It's rank time for Week sixteen,
Speaker 1: your fantasy playoffs. I am Chris Welsh, and I am
Speaker 1: joined by only the great and powerful Pat Fitzmorris. I
Speaker 1: say only not in a we're not all ecstatic to
Speaker 1: just have Pat here, but we usually have a guest here.
Speaker 1: It is just Pat and I finishing out the season strong.
Speaker 1: Because this is the last iteration of this show. We
Speaker 1: still have plenty of shows on the network with start
Speaker 1: and sits for everything for your championship week. But I
Speaker 1: don't know if you heard, but right when we do
Speaker 1: this show next week, it's a Christmas so they're gonna
Speaker 1: have a little bit of time off.
Speaker 2: Pat.
Speaker 1: We have to, like occasionally, not do a show. They
Speaker 1: have to give us a day off so we won't
Speaker 1: be here next week with it. So we get to
Speaker 1: finish this bad boy out with just you and me.
Speaker 3: In their games on Christmas Wednesday, Welsh, which is a
Speaker 3: little unusual, so you know that tweaks the schedule a
Speaker 3: bit for us. Let me ask you, Welsh's head in
Speaker 3: New Week sixteen, your favorite redraft team whatever that was
Speaker 3: your your favorite team, the one you felt best about
Speaker 3: all year.
Speaker 2: Is it still alive?
Speaker 1: Ooh? I would have to say yes, because it's one
Speaker 1: of two things and you're gonna hate it. One of
Speaker 1: it was the Superflex league that you are in with us,
Speaker 1: the you know, our industry Pentathlon league where we mentioned
Speaker 1: this before. It's five different things we had to do
Speaker 1: and Bogman and I shared a team, but we had
Speaker 1: to draft a super flex well I think that was
Speaker 1: actually an auction, and we had to do like a
Speaker 1: best ball and we have picks and we have dfs.
Speaker 1: It's this crazy format that you and me have been
Speaker 1: fighting for first place the entire season, and it was
Speaker 1: really really strong as a super flex. It's held up
Speaker 1: throughout the year. I'm in first place. I think you're
Speaker 1: in second or third, like oh on the overall and
Speaker 1: then the other one was I really love both of
Speaker 1: my FFP. One I got knocked in in the championship,
Speaker 1: but now they're these championship round. The other one is
Speaker 1: still alive. So yeah, fair to say, like probably two
Speaker 1: of my three favorite rosters are still alive. What about
Speaker 1: what about you though? Because I know you probably dipped
Speaker 1: your toe in everything.
Speaker 3: I do have one favorite team in Redraft Welsh. I
Speaker 3: was on death's door last week after starting Brock Purty
Speaker 3: and George Kittle in that Thursday night game did not
Speaker 3: go so well. You know, one point, the algorithm had
Speaker 3: me down as like a fourteen percent chance to win.
Speaker 3: I had Mike Evans in the late afternoon window, and
Speaker 3: I had Jamiir Gibbs and my opponent had David Montgomery,
Speaker 3: So a big swing for me there, and I wound
Speaker 3: up winning by like six or seven points and advancing
Speaker 3: to the Semis. So pretty happy that team is still alive.
Speaker 3: It wasn't looking real good for a while, and I
Speaker 3: had lost a game in Week fourteen that would have
Speaker 3: earned me a bye, So I would have been crushed
Speaker 3: if I would have lost that game and then got
Speaker 3: knocked out in the first round. So I'm just happy
Speaker 3: be in Week sixteen with that team.
Speaker 1: That brings up something interesting I'm curious about with you.
Speaker 1: I remember, back in the day projection of you know, points,
Speaker 1: you look at your matchup and you're like, oh, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna lose by three points, you know, like long time ago.
Speaker 1: I really would care about that, and over time, you know,
Speaker 1: I think you learned to not care and not care,
Speaker 1: but I'm curious about what's the number, and maybe it's
Speaker 1: site to site and how they project it. What's the
Speaker 1: number where you start to care because I think any
Speaker 1: of us see a five or six point swing, you're like, whatever,
Speaker 1: what's the number where you're like, oh, they really think
Speaker 1: I'm gonna lose? Where your eyes start to pop, You're like,
Speaker 1: I am behind and now I actually am playing refine
Speaker 1: where you actually care about the projected number.
Speaker 3: Yeah, when you get over eighty percent to win or
Speaker 3: under twenty percent to have a chance, I feel like then, like,
Speaker 3: all right, my fate is pretty much sealed unless something miraculous.
Speaker 1: But I like, is it like a ten point like
Speaker 1: if you see not even the percentage like, but like
Speaker 1: actual point projection. It's like if you're down, if you're
Speaker 1: projected to be down by ten eleven twelve, is that
Speaker 1: like nailing the coffin for you?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I mean twelve twelve early in the early afternoon games,
Speaker 3: that's fine. Twelve if it's you know, six thirty Eastern
Speaker 3: and there's not much to go. There's the Sunday night game,
Speaker 3: the Monday night game, and forty minutes of game time
Speaker 3: in the late afternoon window. Then yeah, that I worry
Speaker 3: about a double digit deficit.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, I know you guys have all been
Speaker 1: out there sharing your crazy wins, your crazy losses, whether
Speaker 1: it was a last second interception or a last second
Speaker 1: touchdown or a missed extra point that won you or
Speaker 1: hurt you. We always want to hear from it. You
Speaker 1: can drop it in the comments below. How did you
Speaker 1: win or how did you lose those critical matchups and
Speaker 1: of course how are you going to win this week?
Speaker 1: We're going to help you running back ranks, that is
Speaker 1: what We have got a three part series across the
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros YouTube channels, so make sure you're locked into
Speaker 1: all of them for the different positional episodes. But this one,
Speaker 1: Pat and I were going to talk about the running
Speaker 1: backs this week, which I know critical in every spot
Speaker 1: because there are some pretty big questions and some pretty
Speaker 1: big losses from last week. We know Dave Montgomery's out,
Speaker 1: Nick Chubb is out, looks like Alvin Kamara is out,
Speaker 1: so there are some big replacements and how they move.
Speaker 1: We will talk about all of those ranks, which you
Speaker 1: can find at fantasypros dot com slash rankings. A little
Speaker 1: bit of housekeeping first, because we got to giveaway prices.
Speaker 1: It's the holiday season and we are forgiving, and we
Speaker 1: want to give you a chance to win a sign
Speaker 1: Jackson Smith in Jigba Seahawks autograph helmet for free, courtesy
Speaker 1: of our friends over at Pristine Auction dot com. All
Speaker 1: you've got to do is head over to Fantasypros dot
Speaker 1: com slash contest and we're not asking much complete little form.
Speaker 1: Then you can either download the Fantasy Pros myplaybook app,
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Speaker 1: socials x, Instagram, TikTok, and you can do all of them.
Speaker 1: Each one will get you an entry and we'll be
Speaker 1: announcing the winner right here on the podcast soon. So
Speaker 1: if you're on YouTube, make sure you are subscribed, turn
Speaker 1: on notifications and then you'll be alerted when we've got
Speaker 1: the new episodes and when we give away that awesome
Speaker 1: autograph helmet via Jackson Smith in jigbub Helmets are just cool,
Speaker 1: Like even though as a forty nine er person, I
Speaker 1: don't want that, but I have to admit it school
Speaker 1: I have admitted it's really really cool to be fair.
Speaker 1: As a forty nine person, don't really want these helmets
Speaker 1: behind me right now? Anyways? Is either so don't want
Speaker 1: any of them, but maybe I would take that they're
Speaker 1: doing a better spot the ranks contest this week. By
Speaker 1: the way, hat tip Pat, I looked at the seasonal
Speaker 1: we are down to what is it like, two more weeks?
Speaker 1: Do we rank into eighteen or do we stop? We
Speaker 1: cut it?
Speaker 2: I mean, we do rankings for week eighteen, but they
Speaker 2: don't count.
Speaker 1: Okay, well they count perfect two more weeks, Pat, you
Speaker 1: have a hold on the top twenty most accurate rankers
Speaker 1: in the land. You are inside the top twenty, so
Speaker 1: no pressure, but you're gonna have to just kind of
Speaker 1: hold it up a little bit so you can maintain
Speaker 1: that top twenty. Very impressive. Unfortunately, Mike Mayer is a
Speaker 1: little bit higher than you, but we got two of
Speaker 1: our pros people inside the top twenty. I do that hilariously.
Speaker 1: Before I hat tipped to the week fifteen top rankers.
Speaker 1: Number one, the Wolf of Rodeo Street, the incredible name
Speaker 1: from the rode Street Journal. We were both discussing I've
Speaker 1: done a show with Kate and you were confirming with me.
Speaker 1: Kate Majuke is how we say the last name. Her
Speaker 1: last name was completely in some other world for me,
Speaker 1: and I've literally done a show with Kate Great Kate
Speaker 1: over at Yahoo.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I believe it is majuke. Kate and Michelle are awesome,
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm pretty sure. And I apologize to Kate
Speaker 3: Michelle if I'm getting that last name. Ye.
Speaker 1: Yeah, just making sure that if I said it wrong,
Speaker 1: that's Pat's fault. It's not my fault whatsoever. But Michelle
Speaker 1: and Kate and I and Joe and Bogman did one
Speaker 1: of my favorite episodes of all time on a podcast,
Speaker 1: which was hilarious and they are great. And then Michael
Speaker 1: I think it's how from FF face Off was number three.
Speaker 1: So those are your top three most accurate rankers from
Speaker 1: week fifteen. Congratulations to those three. You can check out
Speaker 1: everybody else, the top ten, all the way down into
Speaker 1: the lowly hundreds of whatever you want for that week,
Speaker 1: plus the seasonal ranks. Like I said, coming to a close,
Speaker 1: very tight race. There's actually discussions behind the scenes. People
Speaker 1: were like, oh my gosh, this person who's been killing
Speaker 1: it over here, they had a bad week and they
Speaker 1: moved down. It's kind of like a playoff race at
Speaker 1: least for us behind the scenes and the people that
Speaker 1: are at the tippy top their pat But keep up
Speaker 1: the good work and maybe you can even jump into
Speaker 1: that top fifteen. I don't will this be the highest
Speaker 1: you finished in a rank contest yearly? I don't assume.
Speaker 1: Because you are like a legend of fantasy football and
Speaker 1: you're great ranking, you could have easily. You tell me
Speaker 1: you finished one overall, I'll believe it. But is this
Speaker 1: near the tippy top?
Speaker 2: I finished one overall in twenty twenty?
Speaker 1: Never mind, there you go.
Speaker 2: I was.
Speaker 3: I was dial in for the COVID year, but I
Speaker 3: remember talking about the horse races down the stretch. Nate
Speaker 3: Jonki of PF half I remember was charging heart like
Speaker 3: he was on fire in the light last few weeks,
Speaker 3: and I held him off by the skin of my
Speaker 3: teeth in the final week, like Nate was just absolutely
Speaker 3: tore it down the stretch.
Speaker 1: And Heate's doing it again this year all the way.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Nate is one of the best, for sure. He
Speaker 3: is a fantastic ranker and just really sharp overall.
Speaker 1: Well, I want to thank everybody to all the great
Speaker 1: rankers and fantasy football analysts that have ranked with us
Speaker 1: all season. Long. I think it's a huge value tool
Speaker 1: to all the listeners out there to create it, it's
Speaker 1: great for us. I hope they appreciate it as well
Speaker 1: and appreciate every single person that takes part in it.
Speaker 1: You guys are rock and hopefully we were able to
Speaker 1: give you some proper you know, acolytes. However you want
Speaker 1: to say it like we're propping you up to the
Speaker 1: world and the masses. I don't think in the past
Speaker 1: we've done a whole lot of like presenting who the
Speaker 1: top three were, but that was actually something I wanted
Speaker 1: to do really heavy this year, was make sure we
Speaker 1: were celebrating all of those people. All Right, enough's enough,
Speaker 1: you say all of this conjecture before let's get to
Speaker 1: the ranks. Okay, let's do it. Let's talk about all
Speaker 1: these bad boys. Let's get to the big board RB
Speaker 1: one through twelve for this week, the guys that you're
Speaker 1: gonna set it and forget it. Most likely we'll see
Speaker 1: Saikwan Barkley at one, Jamiir Gibbs it two, Josh Jacobs three,
Speaker 1: Bijon and James Connor. That's your top five. You've got
Speaker 1: chase about say the holiday season, let's say, Charlie Brown.
Speaker 1: When I looked at that. For some reason, I just
Speaker 1: watched the nineteen sixty two Charlie Brown Christmas really bad take.
Speaker 1: Maybe it's awful. It is horrible, but like it's nostalgia,
Speaker 1: but it is so bad it was hard to watch.
Speaker 1: But I saw that and thought of that, maybe that's
Speaker 1: an omen Devon h and Derrick Henry Kyron Williams, Chubbahover,
Speaker 1: James Cook and Joe Mixon. Is that a bad take?
Speaker 1: By the way, the like sixty two Charlie Brown Christmas cartoon,
Speaker 1: kids are.
Speaker 3: Always transfixed by it, so I think we're obligated to
Speaker 3: like it. But yeah, in hindsight, I remember, you know,
Speaker 3: hitting early teens and thinking like, yeah, this is this
Speaker 3: is not one of my favorite Christmas specials.
Speaker 1: I don't like I've every I think I had like
Speaker 1: seen it in like ten years, and then we're let's
Speaker 1: put it on. It's like twenty six minutes, and it's like, oh,
Speaker 1: it's twenty five minutes too long. So I forgot that
Speaker 1: it is not good. So sorry if I've offended anybody
Speaker 1: that loved that. From that, it was a great nostalgia,
Speaker 1: but it just doesn't really hold up super great the ranks.
Speaker 1: Let's see how these bad boys hold up. It's chalk chibabberd.
Speaker 1: Disappointed last week, I'm right back in it. I think
Speaker 1: there's a really great spot. James Connor is in a
Speaker 1: phenomenal spot this week from a point standpoint. I mean,
Speaker 1: Carolina gives up like the most fantasy points to running
Speaker 1: backs right now, so that's why he's ranking so high.
Speaker 1: The tippy top I think has some changes. I am
Speaker 1: higher on Bijon than the consensus. I've got him at
Speaker 1: two in a great matchup, and I know Ericson and
Speaker 1: I both agree Jamiir Gibbs without Dave Montgomery is at
Speaker 1: the very tippy top of number one. But those are
Speaker 1: just argumentative points to like the overall ranks. One that
Speaker 1: came into question was a guy that I'm about normal
Speaker 1: on consensus. Since we're looking at mine and yours, you
Speaker 1: are quite a bit lower, and and I understand why
Speaker 1: you are lower, but let's hear the breakdown. Joe Mixon
Speaker 1: this week is going up against his Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 1: It's as bad as a matchup as you can possibly get.
Speaker 1: And I had a real battle here of Joe Mixon
Speaker 1: being great, you know, being the guy versus a horrific matchup.
Speaker 1: And from an advice standpoint, am I personally really sitting
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon for let's say, I mean, it's tough to
Speaker 1: say this Rico daubtle thing. It's I guess any name
Speaker 1: you give me, it's gonna be tough because it's like
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon has got you there. He can be involved
Speaker 1: in both sides of the ball, whether it's running or receiving.
Speaker 1: But it is a horrific matchup. But I couldn't I
Speaker 1: couldn't bear with myself that I would sit Joe Mixon
Speaker 1: in some scenario, not necessarily necessarily saying you're doing that, Pat,
Speaker 1: but you do have him at seventeen, and that's tough.
Speaker 1: That's a tough spot because you are opening up this
Speaker 1: scenario where you would not play Joe Mixon in a
Speaker 1: semi final playoff matchup. But I don't know the names
Speaker 1: ahead of it, and it's probably not too critical, So
Speaker 1: why don't you talk about it. Joe Mixon pretty lowly
Speaker 1: ranked for you this week?
Speaker 3: Yeah, so it is hard to rank a guy this
Speaker 3: low when he probably is a top ten touch outlook
Speaker 3: like very good chance that mix and sees something close
Speaker 3: to twenty touches in this game, Welsh, But you mentioned
Speaker 3: the matchup. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest rushing yards,
Speaker 3: the fewest receiving yards to running backs also, and the
Speaker 3: fewest fantasy points, so undeniably hard matchup. Also, like Mixon's
Speaker 3: ankle might not be one hundred percent after last week
Speaker 3: he was the victim of a hip drop tackle. Looked
Speaker 3: like he might have had a high ankle sprain. Apparently not,
Speaker 3: but I don't think his ankle can be feeling one
Speaker 3: hundred percent after that. And the other thing, well, over
Speaker 3: his last five games, Joe Mixon has struggled every time
Speaker 3: he has gone up against a good run defense. So
Speaker 3: he had twenty five carries for forty six yards, although
Speaker 3: he did have a touchdown against the Lions in Week ten,
Speaker 3: so under two yards per carry. In Week ten against Detroit,
Speaker 3: fourteen carries for twenty two yards against the Titans, in
Speaker 3: Week twelve, twelve carries for twenty three yards against the
Speaker 3: Dolphins last week. This awful Houston offensive line not doing
Speaker 3: him any favors in tough matchups, and this is as
Speaker 3: tough as it gets, so it is hard for me
Speaker 3: to come in at RB one range with Joe Mixon
Speaker 3: this week.
Speaker 1: You know the thing I do think that's interesting. I
Speaker 1: would just throw out here that it kind of feeds
Speaker 1: to your point. When you look at sixteen or seventeen
Speaker 1: as a rank, you're like, oh, or quite a bit lower,
Speaker 1: but we're off of buys and the running backs that
Speaker 1: are all ahead or even below. Like in my case,
Speaker 1: it's not like you are making a case that these
Speaker 1: suboptimal running backs are being ranked over him. And what
Speaker 1: I'm getting at is like, okay, you have like ric o'dowdell.
Speaker 1: You know, like ric o'dowdell. It feels grosser, but you
Speaker 1: know he's been pretty solid. And this is, by the way,
Speaker 1: in the ranks under Joe Mixon on ECR, Ricodowell, Bucky Irving.
Speaker 1: I love Bucky this week, John Jonathan Taylor, and then
Speaker 1: you know there's another guy that we're going to be
Speaker 1: talking about here in just a second. There are names
Speaker 1: that makes some sense to do it. But I think
Speaker 1: for most people sitting here listening to the show, you
Speaker 1: probably don't have these big questions. Maybe you did fall
Speaker 1: into like you have James Connor, Joe Mixon and Ric
Speaker 1: o'dowdell or Bucky Irving, let's say, and you really do
Speaker 1: have to come to a decision to start too, this
Speaker 1: would be the week that you could do it for
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon. And it's not like we're putting a bunch
Speaker 1: of speculative names above it. It's just, you know, playoff time,
Speaker 1: you have to there's quarterback questions we're gonna have. There's
Speaker 1: some things you're gonna have to stomach one way or
Speaker 1: the other. I'm going to put my best players out there,
Speaker 1: or I'm going to play a weekly matchup in week sixteen,
Speaker 1: And you know, does it hurt you to have Joe
Speaker 1: Mixon go off? The thing is nobody goes off against
Speaker 1: Kansas City. So that's why he is rank low. I
Speaker 1: would predict to you Penning, when you're listening to this,
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon will probably move down as the week goes on.
Speaker 1: Be surprised as more rankers put their rank in if
Speaker 1: we saw him as low as fifteen, I don't think
Speaker 1: he'll get quite down to Pats range. But I do
Speaker 1: think as more people digest Kansas City, it's a matchup
Speaker 1: that you could move off of if you have the
Speaker 1: ability to move off of it and just not everybody will.
Speaker 1: That takes us because we don't need to sit on
Speaker 1: the RB one too long. That takes us to the
Speaker 1: RB two range thirteen through twenty four, and here's some
Speaker 1: bigger questions at thirteen as Rico Dadajo. I mentioned Bucky Irving,
Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor, Isaac Garrindo at sixteen, Aaron Jones, Zach Charbonay,
Speaker 1: Brian Robinson, Breis Hall, Jerome Ford, Tony Pollard, Rashad White,
Speaker 1: and DeAndre Swift. It's really nice not having those buyas pat.
Speaker 1: It feels really good seeing some of these names in here.
Speaker 1: I believe Isaac Garrindo might be one that just messes
Speaker 1: with people's brains, and he is kind of a window
Speaker 1: to me of the are you really going to sit
Speaker 1: said for Joe Mixon or set Joe Mixon for said player.
Speaker 1: Isaac Garrindo is ranked ECR sixteen. I have him at fourteen,
Speaker 1: you have him at fifteen, and that means you have
Speaker 1: Isaa Grendo over Joe Mixon. We do know what the
Speaker 1: forty nine ers like to do. In general, they've been
Speaker 1: kind of ineffective. He continuously is still nursing these things.
Speaker 1: What's your level of comfortability with Isaac Garnde. You have
Speaker 1: a decent rank of him this week, but your level
Speaker 1: of comfortability is starting him in the semi finals.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I feel okay about it, Welsh, just because generally,
Speaker 3: if someone is the lead.
Speaker 2: Back in the forty nine ers offense, that's a pretty
Speaker 2: good thing.
Speaker 3: I mean, we were ranking Jordan Mason as a no
Speaker 3: brainer top five running back every week earlier in the season.
Speaker 3: Now this forty nine Ers offense not humming like it
Speaker 3: was earlier in the year. Trent Williams has missed four games.
Speaker 3: I don't know if he's going to be back this week.
Speaker 3: Brock Purdy has had some off games lately, but we
Speaker 3: are getting that workload with Girndo where we can feel
Speaker 3: pretty good that we're going to be getting fifteen touches.
Speaker 3: And granted it's against a pretty good Miami run defense
Speaker 3: that has turned into one of the better run defenses
Speaker 3: in the league. But we know that Kyle Shanahan wants
Speaker 3: to run the ball or at least strike a balance
Speaker 3: with his offense between run and pass. So I feel
Speaker 3: pretty good about the touch out.
Speaker 2: Look.
Speaker 3: I feel pretty good about Grendo's big play capabilities. So yeah,
Speaker 3: I mean this is not a slam dunk money in
Speaker 3: the bank play. But I feel pretty good about him
Speaker 3: as an RB two.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean I'm a tiny bit higher. I
Speaker 1: think just my general feel of it is like you
Speaker 1: have to start him in most scenarios, almost all the scenarios,
Speaker 1: but I'm not sure I feel super comfortable about it.
Speaker 1: In the two starts where he has been like a
Speaker 1: main starter, he has finished second and twenty sixth in
Speaker 1: half PPR, So you know, on both sides of between
Speaker 1: being a flex and being the most elite, he's had
Speaker 1: fifteen and six so he's averaging fifteen and a half
Speaker 1: carries over the last two games. He's involved in the
Speaker 1: receiving game, which is probably one of the biggest benefits
Speaker 1: of him. But you know, I will say, looking at
Speaker 1: here when he has doubled dig carries, he has had
Speaker 1: four games of double digit carries. Three of the four
Speaker 1: he has finished as a top two RB, so he's
Speaker 1: finished in the top twenty four three of those four times.
Speaker 1: The other one was twenty six that was last week.
Speaker 1: Miami's kind of a median matchup here, I truthfully and
Speaker 1: I don't have it ranked like this, so I'm not
Speaker 1: like going against myself. I don't know if I could
Speaker 1: sit Joe Mixon for Isaac Garrindo, but I think the
Speaker 1: process makes a lot of sense. You know, he was
Speaker 1: also involved in the past game even more Isaac Garrindo,
Speaker 1: which I think helps that upside of him. But the
Speaker 1: volume is definitely going to be there with Joe mix
Speaker 1: and the process is right to go Grindo over a
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon on matchup. But can I do it? That's
Speaker 1: the biggest key. Can you do it? But that's also
Speaker 1: why you You finished one in a year and I
Speaker 1: have not, so that's definitely a differentiator. So there you go,
Speaker 1: Isaac Garrindo. How about Brice Hall. Breece Hall is another
Speaker 1: one that you and I are on a little bit
Speaker 1: opposite sides. I'm a little bit higher than consensus. He's
Speaker 1: ECR twenty. You have him a little bit lower. We
Speaker 1: both have him as an RB two. Though we didn't
Speaker 1: get massive volume, we did get a touchdown. I would
Speaker 1: speculate that we are going to get more of that
Speaker 1: volume this week going up against the Rams. But you know,
Speaker 1: you've almost got him outside of the top RB two
Speaker 1: range here. So what's your take on Brice Hall.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and if you would have told me before the season, Welsh,
Speaker 3: then at one point I would be ranking Breece Hall
Speaker 3: as a back end RB two.
Speaker 2: I wouldn't quite believe that.
Speaker 3: But so after missing Week fourteen with knee injury, Hall
Speaker 3: was active last week and kind of a surprise active
Speaker 3: in some ways. I remember at the midpoint or early
Speaker 3: in the week, it seemed like he was going to
Speaker 3: be out, but he did play a season low forty
Speaker 3: eight percent of the Jets offensive snaps, only at nine
Speaker 3: carries for thirty yards, but he did get into the
Speaker 3: end zone, which helped. I'm just worried that Hall gets
Speaker 3: another limited workload this week against the Rams, and with
Speaker 3: the Aaron Rodgers to DeVante Adams connection clicking late, I
Speaker 3: suspect we might see another pass heavy game plan for
Speaker 3: the Jets.
Speaker 1: So the only thing that's got me a little bit
Speaker 1: higher is that a him being able to go in
Speaker 1: and play. Lets me be optimistic that the workload is
Speaker 1: going to go up. Now to what degree that's a
Speaker 1: bigger question. I mean, he had eleven touches last week.
Speaker 1: If I can get over fifteen, I feel really good
Speaker 1: because this matchup over the last month, the Rams have
Speaker 1: given up the sixth most fantasy points to running backs.
Speaker 1: That's what I'm liking here for the Jets. So it's
Speaker 1: a very very good matchup from that standpoint. They've given
Speaker 1: up four touchdowns to rbs over those last four weeks.
Speaker 1: Brace Hall got that touchdown last week. We know heavily
Speaker 1: involved he is in general, and he was he scored
Speaker 1: inside the top twenty of RBS in half PPR on
Speaker 1: eleven touches last week. And now he's going into you know,
Speaker 1: relatively as good of a matchup. You know, he went
Speaker 1: up against the Jets. If you want a technical side
Speaker 1: of it, the Rams have given up more fantasy points
Speaker 1: to running backs than the Jags have over the last month.
Speaker 1: So yeah, if we come back to gut versus process,
Speaker 1: the process I think of the matchup makes a lot
Speaker 1: of sense. The bigger question is about the volume. I've
Speaker 1: got him a little bit higher just based off of
Speaker 1: hoping that we're going to get to that fifteen touch mark.
Speaker 1: And it's just a really really good matchup. You know,
Speaker 1: the Jets are playing for whatever they're playing for right now,
Speaker 1: you know, for Aaron Rodgers, in you know, new documentary
Speaker 1: or you know whatever he's trying to do. DeVante Like,
Speaker 1: they're still playing it out, and I would just be optimistic.
Speaker 1: This would be a really good game for briefs. The
Speaker 1: next two don't get super great. This might be the
Speaker 1: last time I'm really comfortable with Breece Hall and you
Speaker 1: know I use that with like air quotes here, Jerome Ford,
Speaker 1: I'd love to see this. This is one on the
Speaker 1: Prediction Show that I kind of jumped up with early on,
Speaker 1: and it's pretty easy. Nick Chubb is out, Jerome Ford
Speaker 1: is the man, and the Bengals you can do some
Speaker 1: stuff against. Like how about the number one Fantasy points
Speaker 1: to running backs over the last month is against this
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals. So Jerome Ford, you can go back and
Speaker 1: listen to that show. I had some high predictions of him.
Speaker 1: I love him because he's again both sides of the ball,
Speaker 1: rushing in receiving. Not only did the Bengals give up
Speaker 1: the most rushing yards over the last month or I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: fantasy points in general to running backs, they gave up
Speaker 1: the most receiving yards of any team over the last
Speaker 1: month to running backs two hundred and fifty yards over
Speaker 1: the last four games on quite a few receptions as well.
Speaker 1: That bodes incredibly well for jerome Ford because you have
Speaker 1: Jorane Thompson, you got a new quarterback in that is
Speaker 1: not going to be slanging the ball like Jamison Winston
Speaker 1: Jameis Winston, And what.
Speaker 4: Does that do?
Speaker 1: Short lower leverage throws, screen passes to Jerome Ford. The
Speaker 1: only thing that would hold them back, I guess would
Speaker 1: be is if the offense is so ineffective and so
Speaker 1: behind they're not running the ball. But I still think
Speaker 1: the ball is going to be going through Jerome Ford.
Speaker 1: So I am a lot more hyper aggressive on him.
Speaker 1: I am higher than consensus on ECR. I've got him
Speaker 1: at seventeen, you've got him at twenty one, spot above ECR.
Speaker 1: So that's my take on it. I think he's a
Speaker 1: really great play this week. What say you?
Speaker 3: The way you laid it up makes a lot of sense, Welsh,
Speaker 3: and I do think jerome Ford is a pretty good
Speaker 3: bet for something close to twenty touches this week, assuming
Speaker 3: the Browns can sustain any sort of offense. And I
Speaker 3: guess that is my main concern here with Dorian Thompson.
Speaker 3: Robinson at quarterbacks. So he made three starts for the
Speaker 3: Browns last season, Cleveland scored three, thirteen and twelve points.
Speaker 1: I knew this is gonna be good as soon as
Speaker 1: you said that. I was like, Ah, this is gonna
Speaker 1: be good. Whatever you're gonna say.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: So Brown's running backs combined for only forty six receiving
Speaker 3: yards in those three games.
Speaker 2: And the weird thing was Welsh.
Speaker 3: I think Brown's running backs had like fifteen catches and
Speaker 3: dtrs three starts, but they averaged like three yards of
Speaker 3: catch or maybe under three yards a catch. I just
Speaker 3: worry that there is a limited ceiling for Jerome Ford
Speaker 3: with Dorian Thompson Robinson at core, even in this good
Speaker 3: matchup against the Bengals.
Speaker 1: I agree. It's just the Bengals defense is garbage. So
Speaker 1: that's that's my set, like the only slight counter you know,
Speaker 1: And this isn't Jerome Ford being top twelve or anything
Speaker 1: like that. It's just the Bengals defense is so bad.
Speaker 1: It's so bad and it's such a good matchup that
Speaker 1: my hope would be it counteracts a little bit of
Speaker 1: exactly what you're talking about with dt are not as
Speaker 1: the best quarterback option, but I think Jerome Ford is
Speaker 1: in a really good spot. A lot of people might
Speaker 1: have you know, picked him off with waivers as of
Speaker 1: recent and a lot of you might be in a
Speaker 1: spot where you can put them at flex. This would
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Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: What they were wide receivers, but these are running backs,
Speaker 1: the final running backs we're talking about here. Rib's twenty
Speaker 1: five through thirty six. Flex to however you play it.
Speaker 1: Ramandra Stevenson at twenty five, Isaiah Pacheco at twenty six.
Speaker 1: Tyrone Tracy, Kendre Miller in there because of Alvin Kamara,
Speaker 1: Tank Bigsby, Naji Harris, Travis etn Jalen Warren, Taj Spears,
Speaker 1: Gus Edwards, Javonte Williams, Tyler Algier. Those are your flex
Speaker 1: running backs. They do not feel super great. There's some
Speaker 1: lines that you can see that are in there. Let's
Speaker 1: start with Tyrone Tracy. Is Tyrone Tracy a line in
Speaker 1: the sand at running back? And what side is he on?
Speaker 1: Is he on the wor okay or the things are
Speaker 1: falling apart? He is ECR twenty seven. I've got him
Speaker 1: about ECR. You are quite a bit lower. So the
Speaker 1: answer for you is he is on the wrong side
Speaker 1: of that line, I believe.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got him running back thirty two, So he
Speaker 3: is on the worrisome side of that line. Wel I
Speaker 3: just this is a player I like a lot and
Speaker 3: will have. I hope to be above consensus in my
Speaker 3: twenty twenty five draft rankings on Tyrone Tracy. But he's
Speaker 3: had ten carries for well last week, ten carries for
Speaker 3: thirty one yards, only four receiving yards against the Ravens
Speaker 3: Over his last three games, Tracy is averaging three point
Speaker 3: one yards per carry, and two of those games were
Speaker 3: against the Cowboys and Saints, two of the worst run
Speaker 3: defenses in the league. Whether it's Drew Lock or Tommy
Speaker 3: DeVito or Tim Boyle starting at quarterback this week, I
Speaker 3: don't have much faith in the Giants' ability to move
Speaker 3: the ball. So Tracy doesn't have a very good touchdown
Speaker 3: outlook for this week. And although to his credit, he
Speaker 3: has scored a touchdown somehow in two of his last
Speaker 3: three games. But like it's a fairly difficult matchup against
Speaker 3: the Falcons. They've a lot of the tenth fewest rushing
Speaker 3: yards and ninth fewest fantasy points to running backs. I
Speaker 3: just don't feel good about the trajectory of the Giants
Speaker 3: offense right now, and I feel like Tracy's going to
Speaker 3: be the victim of the Giants offensive struggles.
Speaker 1: I mean, I kind of agree, because I think that's
Speaker 1: where that line, especially in early rank week ranks and
Speaker 1: stuff like that, where I was kind of like, I'm
Speaker 1: a little indifferent about what to do with Tyrone Tracy.
Speaker 1: To add to your credit, over the last month, they've
Speaker 1: given up the Falcons, the second least rushing yards in
Speaker 1: the NFL over just the last month under two hundred,
Speaker 1: a little bit more in the receiving game, but we've
Speaker 1: also seen Singletary kind of ripping some stuff off. So
Speaker 1: if you've got an option at flex, you probably want
Speaker 1: to look more towards like a wide receiver or clearly
Speaker 1: one of the other running backs that we're talking about
Speaker 1: in that range. Kendre Miller is going to be in
Speaker 1: tons of all the questions this week are going to
Speaker 1: be with Kendre Miller. As we're recording this, I don't
Speaker 1: think we have the official like Kamara's out. Kamara's out,
Speaker 1: he's dealing with like an abductor issue. I cannot imagine
Speaker 1: he's going to play Kendre Miller in. He should be
Speaker 1: the main guy. I suppose Jamal Williams is still around
Speaker 1: and maybe you know it could vulture some stuff. But
Speaker 1: Kendre Miller has looked pretty good. I'm on the volume
Speaker 1: of him. I want to rank him like quite a
Speaker 1: bit higher. But it's just not a great matchup against
Speaker 1: Green Bay and the team cannot really move the ball.
Speaker 1: They don't have a great I mean, I guess Raler
Speaker 1: looked better but real, like really good offensive production. I'm
Speaker 1: not going to project against the Green Bay Packers even
Speaker 1: with volume here, So I'm kind of in a spot
Speaker 1: where I don't know what to do with Kendre Miller.
Speaker 1: I've ranked him right at that cusp of like RB
Speaker 1: two to flex range, and I believe you, I think
Speaker 1: we're in the exact same spot. Yeah, we both got
Speaker 1: him at twenty seven. We're one spot higher than what
Speaker 1: current consensus is. What's your take, especially going up against
Speaker 1: your team in Green Bay? What's your take on what
Speaker 1: the ceiling for Kendre Miller can be against Green Bay?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's someone limited, Welsh, just because of
Speaker 3: the Spencer Rattler quarterback situation. We're not expecting a lot
Speaker 3: of points. The Saints are two touchdown underdogs. You've got
Speaker 3: a team from the Deep South that plays its home
Speaker 3: games in a dome going up to Green Bay for
Speaker 3: a night game in late December when it's probably going
Speaker 3: to be twenty degrees or so. It just doesn't seem
Speaker 3: like it's going to be a productive night for the
Speaker 3: Saints offense.
Speaker 2: Welsh.
Speaker 3: But then again, yeah, I mean Kendry Miller is going
Speaker 3: to get a lot of touches this week, and maybe
Speaker 3: they do work in Jamal Williams. It is, after all,
Speaker 3: sort of a homecoming for Jamal, who spent the first
Speaker 3: three years of his career in Green Bay. But last
Speaker 3: week we saw Kendray Miller play twenty six snaps and
Speaker 3: Jamal Williams only six, So I think this is Kendray
Speaker 3: Miller's backfield for the most part this week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just on one hand.
Speaker 3: The touchout looks outlook looks pretty good, but it's just
Speaker 3: kind of a bad spot for this offense. Welsh, and
Speaker 3: I know people are used to the idea after many
Speaker 3: years of Joe Berry coordinating the Great Bay Packers defense
Speaker 3: and being a sieve against the run all of those years,
Speaker 3: that this is like a favorable matchup.
Speaker 2: The Green Bay run defense.
Speaker 3: Has actually been pretty good this year, Welsh, under Jeff Hafley,
Speaker 3: the new defensive coordinator, and we saw last week with
Speaker 3: Zach Sharbonay, who I know a lot of people had
Speaker 3: ranked it's like a low end running back one and
Speaker 3: Charbona didn't get much business done against the Packers on
Speaker 3: Monday night or Sunday night.
Speaker 2: Excuse me, let.
Speaker 1: Me ask you a couple who'd you rather's real quick,
Speaker 1: Kendre Miller or Isaiah Pichecko.
Speaker 2: I've got Pacheco ranked a little bit higher.
Speaker 1: Kendre Miller or Naji Harris.
Speaker 3: I would go with Kendre, considering that Nase had fewer
Speaker 3: snaps than Jalen Warren last week and gets a tough
Speaker 3: match up against Baltimore this week.
Speaker 1: Okay, last one. Kendre Miller or Tank Bigsby.
Speaker 3: I would also go with Kendra here. You know, give
Speaker 3: me the guy who's probably not going to be sharing
Speaker 3: touches as much. And it's not like the Jaguars offense
Speaker 3: is high powered either, and Tank is going to be
Speaker 3: sharing with Travis etn really unpredictable backfield.
Speaker 1: Well there, maybe that answered some questions people might be
Speaker 1: floating ow if you're talking about the value range of
Speaker 1: Kendre Miller. Yeah, I don't know what the upside looks like.
Speaker 1: My dream scenario is that Kendre Miller can play that
Speaker 1: majority of what Kamara does and then all of a
Speaker 1: sudden he's got five catches out of the backfield and
Speaker 1: then he's run in thirteen or fourteen times. I don't
Speaker 1: know what that ends up looking like, especially against this defense.
Speaker 1: And the scenario you laid out, so the top might
Speaker 1: be chopped off a little bit, but better than maybe
Speaker 1: some of those options I mentioned last. Running Back Jalen Warren.
Speaker 1: Maybe not a Kendre Miller versus Jalen Warren, but you
Speaker 1: are higher on Jalen Warren than ECR currently he is
Speaker 1: at thirty two going up against the Baltimore Ravens. His
Speaker 1: biggest plus would be what he can probably do out
Speaker 1: of the passing game. Who do you have higher, Jalen
Speaker 1: Warren or Naji Harris.
Speaker 3: I have Warren ranked one spot ahead of naj This
Speaker 3: weeek Welsh and matchup does play into that because they're
Speaker 3: playing the Ravens, who are really hard to run on
Speaker 3: and easier to throw on. I mean they have a
Speaker 3: lot of the second fewest rushing yards to running backs
Speaker 3: have the Baltimore Ravens, but the fifth most receiving yards
Speaker 3: to running backs, So they give it up to running
Speaker 3: backs in the passing game. And I think maybe Naji
Speaker 3: catches passes two, but I think Jalen Warren is the
Speaker 3: more explosive playmaker in the passing game than Najie Harris's
Speaker 3: and I think it would be who the Steelers to
Speaker 3: get Warren involved as a pass catcher, especially if George
Speaker 3: Pickens miss is another game.
Speaker 1: I kind of like that too. You have Warren above
Speaker 1: Tyrone Tracy. Is there a line to you between Warren
Speaker 1: and Tracy or do you think they belong in the
Speaker 1: same grouping?
Speaker 2: They're same tier? Absolutely?
Speaker 1: All right, Well, there you go. You guys want to
Speaker 1: check out more. There's some interesting names in there. It's
Speaker 1: going to kind of continue to go through throughout the
Speaker 1: week as we get any of these injury reports out
Speaker 1: there and we get new news. That's why you want
Speaker 1: to make sure you're following fantasypros dot com slash rankings.
Speaker 1: If you want to see the entire list of all
Speaker 1: of it, and you might have more questions, you can
Speaker 1: always drop questions below in the chat. But if you
Speaker 1: want some live questions answered, join us right here on
Speaker 1: the YouTube channel Thursday, three pm Eastern where we're going
Speaker 1: to be doing the start and sit show, so you
Speaker 1: can bring your specific question. Jalen Warren versus bop up up,
Speaker 1: Candremailer versus bop pup up. You can do all of
Speaker 1: those three pm Eastern on Thursday, YouTube dot com Slash
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros, So wherever you're listening, make sure you go
Speaker 1: to that hit notification. You can even have a little
Speaker 1: remind me for the live stream so you can get
Speaker 1: in and get your questions answered. Thank you guys as
Speaker 1: always for hanging out with us. Those are rbs in
Speaker 1: the book. Good luck for week sixteen, hopefully get to
Speaker 1: your championship for Pat fitz Morris, I'm Chris Welsh Doctor
Speaker 1: next time right here on Fantasy Pros.
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