WEBVTT - At the Money: Crypto Curious

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>How should retail investors responsibly think about crypto? Are you

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<v Speaker 2>crypto curious? Are you interested in owning maybe some Bitcoin

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<v Speaker 2>or ethereum or some other crypto coins? How should ordinary

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<v Speaker 2>investors interested in the cryptocurrency space get exposure to that asset.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Barry Rideltson on today's edition of At the Money.

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<v Speaker 2>We're going to discuss how retail investors can responsibly invest

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<v Speaker 2>in crypto. To help us unpack all of this and

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<v Speaker 2>what it means for your portfolio, let's bring in Matt Hogan.

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<v Speaker 2>He is the chief investment officer at bit Wise Asset Management.

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<v Speaker 2>The firm manages over ten billion dollars in client assets

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<v Speaker 2>in crypto. Let's start with just the basics, Matt. For

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<v Speaker 2>the longest time, it's been challenging and difficult to own crypto.

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<v Speaker 2>There were wallets and coins and crazy passwords, lots of

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<v Speaker 2>hacks and other problems. Tell us about what's going on

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<v Speaker 2>in the world of actually owning cryptocurrencies.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh, it's great to be here, Barry. It's getting a

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<v Speaker 3>lot easier to own crypto. You know, in the past,

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<v Speaker 3>this was a new disruptive market. It was challenging. You

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<v Speaker 3>had to write down your secret password and not lose it.

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<v Speaker 3>There are all these terrible stories about people losing passwords

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<v Speaker 3>that are now you know, would have gotten them one

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<v Speaker 3>hundred million.

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<v Speaker 4>Dollars or whatever.

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<v Speaker 3>But this is just like any other technology. You and

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<v Speaker 3>I remember when the Internet was hard to use. I

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<v Speaker 3>remember looking up websites in a book, which I know

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<v Speaker 3>sounds absolutely insane.

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<v Speaker 4>But technology has advanced.

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<v Speaker 3>It's now easy to get high quality access and secure

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<v Speaker 3>access to crypto if you use the right tools.

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<v Speaker 2>Huh really interesting. So it sounds like the wild West

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<v Speaker 2>of crypto has been tamed a little bit. There certainly

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<v Speaker 2>has been a push by well known financial institutions into

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<v Speaker 2>the space. You can own crypto coins and ETFs, you

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<v Speaker 2>can own them and closed end funds. What are some

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<v Speaker 2>of the advantages and disadvantages of the various ways and

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<v Speaker 2>methodologies of owning this.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I have to say I'm a huge fan of

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<v Speaker 3>the ETFs. You know, obviously we offer them, so I'm

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<v Speaker 3>talking my book, but broadly speaking, the ETFs came out

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<v Speaker 3>in January of this year, and they let you own

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<v Speaker 3>crypto at such low cost and with such institutional quality

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<v Speaker 3>custody and trading. Retail investors today can get the same

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<v Speaker 3>sort of setup that the largest institutions in the world

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<v Speaker 3>were getting crypto a year or two ago. So these

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<v Speaker 3>ETFs make it easy to buy exposure to bitcoin in

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<v Speaker 3>a brokerage account and know that the crypto is being

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<v Speaker 3>or the bitcoin is being held by an institutional regulated

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<v Speaker 3>custodian with insurance in place, with all the bells and whistles,

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<v Speaker 3>but they don't have to worry about it. Five years ago,

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<v Speaker 3>you had to worry about that personally. The ETFs have

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<v Speaker 3>sort of taken that complexity away and made it cheap

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<v Speaker 3>and safe to own it.

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<v Speaker 2>And you're really a fascinating person to talk to about

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<v Speaker 2>this because you come from the ETF side of the industry.

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<v Speaker 2>You spent how many years twenty years working on atfs.

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<v Speaker 2>Tell us a little bit about your background and what

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<v Speaker 2>led you into the crypto side to come up with

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<v Speaker 2>ways to put coins in ETFs.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, absolutely, you know, fifteen twenty years in the ETF industry,

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<v Speaker 3>the CEO of ETF dot com. There are actually so

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<v Speaker 3>many parallels between ETFs and crypto. I know ETFs today

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<v Speaker 3>are the apple pie of investing, everyone's favorite tool, but

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<v Speaker 3>twenty years ago, they were considered risky and disruptive and

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<v Speaker 3>hard to access. The Financial Times called them weapons of

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<v Speaker 3>mass destruction. There were congressional hearings Berry about ETF's destroying

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<v Speaker 3>the American dream, if you can believe it. But ETFs

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<v Speaker 3>had this core advantage, which were they were lower costs,

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<v Speaker 3>they were more tax efficient, they were easier to use,

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<v Speaker 3>and over time the world woke up to the reality.

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<v Speaker 3>The same thing's happening in crypto. You can see it

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<v Speaker 3>before your eyes. A few years ago Larry Fink called

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<v Speaker 3>bitcoin an index of money laundering. Today he's talking about

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<v Speaker 3>it transforming the world of currency. And he holds more

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<v Speaker 3>Bitcoin than almost anyone else, So it's going in that direction.

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<v Speaker 3>And absolutely you're seeing these two worlds come together where

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<v Speaker 3>this new financial innovation of crypto is now being packaged

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<v Speaker 3>in this beautiful package of an ETF and making it

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<v Speaker 3>easy for every investor to access. It's a beautiful thing.

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<v Speaker 2>And I wanted to talk a little bit about the

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<v Speaker 2>safety aspect and the institutionalzation. None of the coins are regulated.

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<v Speaker 2>It very much has been the wild West. But you're

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<v Speaker 2>not a crypto exchange, you're a fund manager, you're a

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<v Speaker 2>financial manager, who is the regulatory authority that supervises bit wise.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, all of them, with all the letters, all the

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<v Speaker 3>letters very you know, we're regulated by the SEC because

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<v Speaker 3>even though the crypto assets aren't, the funds that we offer,

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<v Speaker 3>the ETFs that we offer are regulated and passed through

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<v Speaker 3>the SEC. Of course, also the CFTC for products that

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<v Speaker 3>hold futures contracts. FINRA, which is another regulator, has oversight

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<v Speaker 3>over broker dealers, and so our distribution team sits under that.

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<v Speaker 3>All our materials are reviewed.

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<v Speaker 4>By FINRA, the NFA.

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<v Speaker 3>It's an alphabet soup of regulators. But it's a good

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<v Speaker 3>thing for investors because one thing that is true about

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<v Speaker 3>crypto is in the early wild wild West days when

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<v Speaker 3>you had offshore exchanges doing shady things, people lost money.

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<v Speaker 3>A great thing that has happened is that has moved

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<v Speaker 3>into these regulated formats like ETF. So you do have

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<v Speaker 3>some protections from the SEC, the CFTC, BINRA, the NFA

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<v Speaker 3>and others, and of course bitwy sits within those protections

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<v Speaker 3>as an RAA.

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<v Speaker 2>That's really interesting. So you're a regulated entity. Where do

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<v Speaker 2>the ETFs and various funds get custodied? How are they held?

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<v Speaker 2>Who does the administrative reporting. I mean, I think of

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<v Speaker 2>these as complex questions for a coin, but really they're

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<v Speaker 2>kind of running the mill questions for an sec regulated

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<v Speaker 2>entity like bitwise.

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<v Speaker 3>It looks exactly like or very similar to any other

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<v Speaker 3>ETF manager. So the crypto acids are held in a

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<v Speaker 3>regulated qualified custodian. In the case of our Bitcoin ETF,

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<v Speaker 3>it's coin based custody, which is the largest crypto custodian

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<v Speaker 3>in the world. The funds are audited by Big four

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<v Speaker 3>auditors in our case it's KPMG. They're administered by firms

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<v Speaker 3>like Bank of New York. If you looked at the

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<v Speaker 3>sort of stack of participants, it would look just like

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<v Speaker 3>you know, a traditional equity ATF and that's what it

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<v Speaker 3>should do, right.

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<v Speaker 4>These are trusted rails that.

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<v Speaker 3>Have been proven over years, and we've just applied them

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<v Speaker 3>to crypto to give the similar protections to crypto investors.

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<v Speaker 2>So the one thing that I find kind of amusing

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<v Speaker 2>and ironic is the whole defying nonsense. The decentralized finance

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<v Speaker 2>turns out to have been a narrative that kind of

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<v Speaker 2>faded away because crypto, for all to talk about outside

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<v Speaker 2>of the financial system, has been dragged, kicking and screaming

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<v Speaker 2>right into the heart of the financial system.

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<v Speaker 3>I admit that there is an irony there, but I

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<v Speaker 3>actually think it's more of a continuum sort of. The

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<v Speaker 3>core idea of DeFi is that the existing financial system

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<v Speaker 3>is too slow, too intermediated.

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<v Speaker 4>Too costly, and all of that is true. DeFi offers

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<v Speaker 4>the potential to improve that.

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<v Speaker 3>But of course the two systems have to come together,

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<v Speaker 3>and you're seeing it. So you're seeing, you know, from

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<v Speaker 3>the crypto side, the launch of ETFs moving into the

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<v Speaker 3>traditional financial system. But you also have firms like Blackrock

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<v Speaker 3>and Franklin Templeton issuing money market funds on public blockchains

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<v Speaker 3>like ethereum, So you are seeing this coming together. I

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<v Speaker 3>wouldn't write off DeFi one point zero very I think

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<v Speaker 3>there'll be a DeFi two point zero that is much

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<v Speaker 3>more significant.

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<v Speaker 2>Really interesting. So let's talk about individuals who want to

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<v Speaker 2>own crypto. What sort of strategies do they deploy? Is

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<v Speaker 2>it bitcoin or bust or should they own bitcoin, ethereum

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<v Speaker 2>and a bunch of other coins. Give us some investment strategies.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean, without telling anyone exactly what to do.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm an index investor at heart. Right, this is a

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<v Speaker 3>disruptive early market. You know, my family owned a betamax.

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<v Speaker 3>I remember using a BlackBerry. It's hard to know exactly

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<v Speaker 3>how this market will turn out in the future. So

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<v Speaker 3>I think taking a diversified approach to this market is

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<v Speaker 3>probably a sensible approach for many investors.

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<v Speaker 4>There's certainly people who are.

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<v Speaker 3>Bitcoin only, who only care about the monetary aspects of crypto,

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<v Speaker 3>but in any disruptive technology, My history, you know, having

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<v Speaker 3>grown up through the tech bubble, tells me that a

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<v Speaker 3>diversified approach may be a good idea for many investors.

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<v Speaker 2>Makes a lot of sense. Whenever I talk about stocks

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<v Speaker 2>to an investor, I always warn them, hey, listen, you

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<v Speaker 2>know you get a a ten to twenty percent pullback

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<v Speaker 2>two out of every three years. Twenty percent comes along

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<v Speaker 2>just about every third year. With crypto. I love the

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<v Speaker 2>expression crypto winter, and we've had an number of them,

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<v Speaker 2>when for a year or two, cryptocurrencies can be down,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, fifty percent or worse. We've probably had three

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<v Speaker 2>of them over the past you know, ten.

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<v Speaker 4>Or so years.

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<v Speaker 2>So how should investors prepare themselves for what seems to

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<v Speaker 2>be an inevitable drawdown?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's a really important question. People ask me all

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<v Speaker 3>the time what the biggest risk in crypto? Is it regulatory?

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<v Speaker 3>Is it technical? Is it quantum computing? It's none of

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<v Speaker 3>those things. The biggest risk is behavioral risk by investors

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<v Speaker 3>who either chase prices when they go up or sell

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<v Speaker 3>when prices go down. This is an asset that has

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<v Speaker 3>huge volatility. You're going to get thirty forty fifty percent

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<v Speaker 3>drawdowns in the future. I feel confident about that. As

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<v Speaker 3>you mentioned, we've seen those in the past and there's

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<v Speaker 3>no reason to expect that will change for investors. What

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<v Speaker 3>that means is two things. One, you need a long

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<v Speaker 3>term discipline. If you're buying bitcoin for the next week,

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<v Speaker 3>I have no idea where it's going. I'm optimistic over

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<v Speaker 3>the next handful of years. And the second is you

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<v Speaker 3>need to size your portfolio appropriately. Don't put in so

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<v Speaker 3>much that if it pulls back fifty percent you're going

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<v Speaker 3>to panic and sell, because that is the worst case scenario.

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<v Speaker 3>You're better just sitting on the sidelines. Put in a

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<v Speaker 3>small amount if you're going to invest, so you can

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<v Speaker 3>handle that up and down and it won't overly impact

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<v Speaker 3>what you're doing.

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<v Speaker 4>Uh.

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<v Speaker 2>Really kind of interesting. So you mentioned price. Bitcoin goes

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<v Speaker 2>way up, it goes way down. Is there a way

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<v Speaker 2>of looking at these from a fundamental perspective? How do

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<v Speaker 2>we value coins other than whatever their last trade was?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's unfortunately a little bit complex. Bitcoin's valuation technique

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<v Speaker 3>is different from other crypto assets like ethereum. When you

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<v Speaker 3>think about bitcoin, what I think bitcoin is trying to

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<v Speaker 3>become is a digital version of gold, a way to

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<v Speaker 3>store money outside of central banks in a digital format.

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<v Speaker 3>And we have digital versions of everything. We have digital

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<v Speaker 3>versions of newspapers, we have digital versions of ads. I

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<v Speaker 3>think the world and younger generations on a digital version

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<v Speaker 3>of gold. The reason I raise that is you can

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<v Speaker 3>look at bitcoin today, it's a little under two trillion dollars.

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<v Speaker 3>You can look at gold it's a little under twenty

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<v Speaker 3>trillion dollars. Do you think it'll get half that market? Well,

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<v Speaker 3>then you think bitcoin will five.

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<v Speaker 4>X from here.

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<v Speaker 3>Do you think it'll get that full market you're more

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<v Speaker 3>optimistic or do you think it'll be less successful? That's

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<v Speaker 3>absolutely the best way to value bitcoin. These other crypto

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<v Speaker 3>assets like ethereum are different. They actually have cash flow

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<v Speaker 3>like characteristics, so they behave a little bit more like stocks,

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<v Speaker 3>they're more sort of fundamentally valued than bitcoin, which is

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<v Speaker 3>this monetary asset, and so you have to think of

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<v Speaker 3>the two different sets of assets a little differently.

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<v Speaker 2>So you and I are both index guys. That's that's

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<v Speaker 2>our background. If I'm an investor and I want to

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<v Speaker 2>put two or three percent of my portfolio into coins,

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<v Speaker 2>what do I do? Dohy tell us about some of

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<v Speaker 2>the options that you guys have. Is it you know,

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<v Speaker 2>should I be going for two X levered bitcoin or

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<v Speaker 2>am I better off with Hey, here are the five

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<v Speaker 2>biggest coins or ten biggest coins and own them all.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I wouldn't go two x levered bitcoin. Uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>bitcoin is volatile enough. I think investors can make a choice.

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<v Speaker 3>Within the ETF space. The only coins that we have

0:13:23.640 --> 0:13:26.760
<v Speaker 3>access to are Bitcoin and ethereum. And the good news

0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:29.439
<v Speaker 3>is there the two largest assets. They're the leaders in

0:13:29.480 --> 0:13:32.480
<v Speaker 3>their spaces. So you can do worse than go two

0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:35.960
<v Speaker 3>parts bitcoin in one part ether and have at least

0:13:36.240 --> 0:13:39.640
<v Speaker 3>broad based exposure. If you want to be more diversified

0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:42.520
<v Speaker 3>and take an index based approach. You know, we a

0:13:42.520 --> 0:13:45.840
<v Speaker 3>bit wise have the largest crypto index fund. It's available

0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:48.000
<v Speaker 3>in a rapper, but that rapper is more like a

0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:51.920
<v Speaker 3>closed end fund, so it can trade it premiums and discounts,

0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:53.960
<v Speaker 3>and you have to be aware that you have that

0:13:54.160 --> 0:13:58.480
<v Speaker 3>extra layer of volatility. So either approach can make sense

0:13:58.520 --> 0:14:00.680
<v Speaker 3>for the right investor, as long as you understand what

0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:01.480
<v Speaker 3>you're getting into.

0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:05.840
<v Speaker 2>So I want to not get too lost in the

0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:09.920
<v Speaker 2>weeds on the technical issues, but I keep hearing about

0:14:09.960 --> 0:14:13.400
<v Speaker 2>the HAVING that's coming up and what does that mean

0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:16.439
<v Speaker 2>to what should lay people understand about this?

0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:18.720
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So if you think about bitcoin, when it was

0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:21.120
<v Speaker 3>created way back in two thousand and eight, two thousand

0:14:21.160 --> 0:14:23.760
<v Speaker 3>and nine, there were no bitcoin in existence, and we

0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:26.360
<v Speaker 3>all know, or many of us know, that eventually there'll

0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:29.080
<v Speaker 3>be twenty one million bitcoin. The way we get from

0:14:29.160 --> 0:14:32.040
<v Speaker 3>zero to twenty one million is every day a little

0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:35.400
<v Speaker 3>bit more bitcoin is issued. What the Having refers to

0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:38.840
<v Speaker 3>Barry is that every four years the amount of bitcoin

0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:42.760
<v Speaker 3>that's issued falls in half, and the last having was

0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:46.320
<v Speaker 3>earlier this year, right, it dropped in half. What that

0:14:46.440 --> 0:14:50.320
<v Speaker 3>means is there's less new supply coming into the market.

0:14:51.000 --> 0:14:53.920
<v Speaker 3>In the end, bitcoin's price is set by supply and demand.

0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:56.800
<v Speaker 3>You have all these people buying bitcoin through the ETF

0:14:56.840 --> 0:14:59.920
<v Speaker 3>and other means and then you have supply and so

0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:04.360
<v Speaker 3>applies either this newly developed bitcoin or existing people selling it.

0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:07.640
<v Speaker 3>So what the having does is it reduces the amount

0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:10.080
<v Speaker 3>of supply in the market. If I told you that

0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:12.160
<v Speaker 3>the amount of oil coming out of the ground would

0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:15.200
<v Speaker 3>fall in half tomorrow, you might be bullish on oil.

0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:17.800
<v Speaker 3>The same sort of narrative is true in bitcoin. The

0:15:17.840 --> 0:15:20.440
<v Speaker 3>amount of bitcoin coming out of the ground, if you will,

0:15:20.800 --> 0:15:22.880
<v Speaker 3>falls in half every four years, and we're just sort

0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:26.040
<v Speaker 3>of starting to feel the impact of the most recent having.

0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:30.040
<v Speaker 2>Now, So all of these challenges, whether it's the limited

0:15:30.040 --> 0:15:34.440
<v Speaker 2>amount of supply that having should be fairly well known

0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:38.240
<v Speaker 2>by investors. None of these are surprise. It's not like

0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:43.120
<v Speaker 2>an earning surprise. Hey, everybody who's a bitcoin investor understands these.

0:15:43.560 --> 0:15:46.680
<v Speaker 2>So the question becomes, what are going to be the

0:15:46.720 --> 0:15:51.840
<v Speaker 2>future drivers of bitcoin returns? Should we be thinking about

0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:56.040
<v Speaker 2>bitcoin like a commodity? Like a currency? You know? You

0:15:56.160 --> 0:16:01.160
<v Speaker 2>mentioned you know, just under two billion dollars trillion dollars

0:16:01.160 --> 0:16:06.040
<v Speaker 2>in marketcap for bitcoin. That puts it somewhere between meta

0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:09.680
<v Speaker 2>and alphabet, Facebook and Google. Do we think about this

0:16:09.920 --> 0:16:13.640
<v Speaker 2>like a large tech company? How should we contextualize the

0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:14.680
<v Speaker 2>coins themselves.

0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean I think of bitcoin specifically as a commodity.

0:16:19.080 --> 0:16:22.000
<v Speaker 3>It's a commodity with scarce supply, and its price is

0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:24.880
<v Speaker 3>set by supply and demand. One of the reasons I'm

0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:28.400
<v Speaker 3>so optimistic about bitcoin right now is we have major

0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:33.400
<v Speaker 3>new sources of demand. Institutional investors are just now buying bitcoin.

0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:37.360
<v Speaker 3>There's talk of the US government acquiring one million bitcoin.

0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:42.520
<v Speaker 3>Corporations are acquiring bitcoin. None of that was true in

0:16:42.560 --> 0:16:45.040
<v Speaker 3>a major way a year ago or two years ago.

0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:48.480
<v Speaker 3>And so you have all this new demand. But unlike

0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:53.320
<v Speaker 3>other commodities, unlike gold, unlike oil, unlike copper, you can

0:16:53.360 --> 0:16:55.280
<v Speaker 3>have all the demand in the world, you don't get

0:16:55.320 --> 0:16:59.200
<v Speaker 3>any more supply. The supply is literally fixed, it's pre programmed.

0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:03.400
<v Speaker 3>When you think about are you optimistic or pessimistic on bitcoin,

0:17:03.920 --> 0:17:07.679
<v Speaker 3>I like to think about that supply demand dynamic, and

0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:10.560
<v Speaker 3>from what I see, there's a lot more demand coming

0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:15.399
<v Speaker 3>online and limited new supply coming online. That makes me optimistic.

0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:17.760
<v Speaker 3>It's not a guarantee. We can see some of those

0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:21.160
<v Speaker 3>things not materialize. We could see investors scared off.

0:17:21.600 --> 0:17:22.440
<v Speaker 4>But I like the.

0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:26.480
<v Speaker 3>Long term framing of it from that simple supply demand perspective.

0:17:26.440 --> 0:17:30.520
<v Speaker 2>So to wrap up. Investors who are crypto curious can

0:17:30.680 --> 0:17:34.000
<v Speaker 2>buy various coins today much more easily than it used

0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:36.920
<v Speaker 2>to be. If you wanted to own any sort of coin,

0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:39.199
<v Speaker 2>you could buy it in a closed end fund or

0:17:39.320 --> 0:17:44.080
<v Speaker 2>even easier in an ETF. Be very aware that you

0:17:44.240 --> 0:17:48.000
<v Speaker 2>have to position size appropriately. Hey, if you want to

0:17:48.040 --> 0:17:51.960
<v Speaker 2>own a percent or three in your portfolio and your

0:17:52.000 --> 0:17:55.960
<v Speaker 2>liquid net worth, the responsible way to do this is

0:17:56.040 --> 0:17:59.840
<v Speaker 2>not through a leverage product, not in anything that's reflective

0:17:59.840 --> 0:18:03.600
<v Speaker 2>of the old wild West ethos of crypto, but a

0:18:03.680 --> 0:18:07.320
<v Speaker 2>traditionally TF You have a small position as you would

0:18:07.359 --> 0:18:10.600
<v Speaker 2>for any particular company, and be aware of your own

0:18:10.640 --> 0:18:16.160
<v Speaker 2>behavior when it comes to managing yourself around the volatility

0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:20.920
<v Speaker 2>of bitcoin. I'm Barry Ridolts. You're listening to Bloomberg's At

0:18:20.920 --> 0:18:42.560
<v Speaker 2>the Money.