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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg daybacate for this Monday, the seventeenth of

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Speaker 1: April in London.

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Speaker 2: Coming up today, single digit UK inflation set to dip

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Speaker 2: below ten percent as peak rates.

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Speaker 1: Loom taking over a Titan Prometheus is snapped up by

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Speaker 1: merk for ten point eight billion dollars.

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Speaker 2: Don't bank on as Barclays reportedly cuts more than one

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Speaker 2: hundred investment banking jobs.

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Speaker 3: The Bank of England looks again at deposit guarantees, so

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Speaker 3: CBI too reliant on insiders and ministers ignore COVID fraud

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Speaker 3: red flags. Those are the stories we're looking at in

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Speaker 3: today's papers. And I'm Leanne gerrins.

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Speaker 1: Plus as Rishi Sunat calls for more maths in schools.

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Speaker 1: Traders tell school leavers to look to tech rather than finance.

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Speaker 4: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. The business

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Speaker 4: news you need to start your day in just one

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Speaker 4: fifteen minute podcast on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Business App

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Speaker 4: and every where you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, I'm Stephen Carroll.

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Speaker 1: And I'm Caroline Hetger. Here are the stories that we're

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Speaker 1: following today.

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Speaker 2: UK inflation is expected to dip below ten percent for

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Speaker 2: the first time since August. The new figures to be

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Speaker 2: released this week. The data are raising hopes that interest

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Speaker 2: rates have now peaked. Here Bloomberg's senior UK economist Dan

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Speaker 2: Hansen says, falling energy prices will be a major factor.

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Speaker 5: You're just going to get these economists called base effects.

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Speaker 5: So these big price rises last year, falling out of

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Speaker 5: the annual comparison. Looking to the March number, we think

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Speaker 5: we're going to drop back from ten point four percent.

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Speaker 5: We actually think we're going to fall a little bit

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Speaker 5: beneath ten percent.

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Speaker 2: It's Dan Hanson from Bloomberg Economics. More than half of

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Speaker 2: economists in a Bloomberg News survey now I think the

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Speaker 2: Bank of England will refrain from raising rates again.

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Speaker 1: Now, cooling inflation and lowering lower boring costs could prove

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Speaker 1: to be a boost for the Prime Minister Rishisunak. His

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Speaker 1: Conservative government is continuing to grapple with industrial action and

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Speaker 1: a cost of living crisis. Last week, nurses rejected the

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Speaker 1: government's five percent pay offer and now say that strikes

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Speaker 1: could continue until Christmas. Here's the Conservative Party chairman Greg Hands.

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Speaker 5: This is a very very reasonable offer. It's fair to

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Speaker 5: it's fair to NHS workers, it's fair to other public

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Speaker 5: sector workers, and it's fair to the taxpayer.

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Speaker 1: Greg Hands and the rest of the government will be

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Speaker 1: hoping that they can resolve the dispute quickly. Recent strikes

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Speaker 1: have depressed economic growth. In February, services output fell by

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Speaker 1: zero point one percent as a result of widespread public

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Speaker 1: sector walkouts.

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Speaker 2: China's economic recovery has led the country's Central Bank to

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Speaker 2: dial back its lending. The PBOC injected an additional twenty

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Speaker 2: billion yuan into the banking system in April, the smallest

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Speaker 2: liquidity provision since November. The news comes as the central

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Speaker 2: Bank's governor y Gang revealed that Beijing had largely ended

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Speaker 2: its regular foreign exchange intervention.

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Speaker 6: If you have right manetary policy, and then I think

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Speaker 6: you'll make sure the exchangerate is deteming a better market,

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Speaker 6: the center intervene as less as possible. We gradually just

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Speaker 6: face out our intervention to the market.

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Speaker 2: Yigang also said that a growth target of around five

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Speaker 2: percent this year could be achieved in China if the

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Speaker 2: property market continues to improve.

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Speaker 1: And Now, in corporate news, merk has agreed to buy

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Speaker 1: Prometheus Biosciences for ten point eight billion dollars that say

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Speaker 1: seventy five percent premium on their Friday closing price. Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Intelligence says that patent expirations are increasingly driving M and

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Speaker 1: A activity across the sector. In all, large US drug

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Speaker 1: companies stand to lose more than two hundred billion dollars

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Speaker 1: in annual sales as a result of it. By the

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Speaker 1: end of twenty thirty.

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Speaker 2: Barclays is reportedly cutting more than one hundred rolls and

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Speaker 2: its investment banking division skynies reports of the job quotes

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Speaker 2: won't be confined to a single country or function within

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Speaker 2: the baseiness. The layoffs come after the lender cut roughly

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Speaker 2: two hundred investment banking posts in November. That Barkley isn't

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Speaker 2: alone in trimming staff. City Group, Goldman, Sachs and others

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Speaker 2: have also asked staff in the face of declining fees

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Speaker 2: and rising interest rates. Those are some of our top

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Speaker 2: stories this morning.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely don't bother though with a job in finance.

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Speaker 1: Apparently that is the response of quite a lot. In fact,

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Speaker 1: about half of the investors that we spoke to with

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Speaker 1: our m Live survey. They're talking about how, yes, the

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Speaker 1: highest paid finance jobs in the past few decades may

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Speaker 1: have been in finance, but actually now you should be

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Speaker 1: looking to tech.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Well this is interesting because I mean, this is

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Speaker 2: a conversation that goes back to quite a while. I

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Speaker 2: spent the time with the University of Chicago's Business good

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Speaker 2: a few years ago, and I was surprised there with

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Speaker 2: all of the NBA students that were interested in the

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Speaker 2: vast majority of interested in finding jobs in tech rather

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Speaker 2: than necessarily in traditional finance jobs. But you would have

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Speaker 2: thought with the layoffs happening in tech that that sentiment

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Speaker 2: might have shifted. So what's interesting here is that now

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Speaker 2: these are people who work in finance. Now, perhaps that

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Speaker 2: tells you something about how they're feeling about the optimism

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Speaker 2: for their own industry as well, but it also tells,

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Speaker 2: you know, tells you that their sentiment certainly is that

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Speaker 2: the strength and tech jobs will continue.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, And obviously you know tech can encompass finance obviously,

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Speaker 1: so those tech jobs, you don't really know where they

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Speaker 1: might be. But I thought the other really interesting line

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Speaker 1: to take away from minute is that that may be

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Speaker 1: for school leavers, but actually a good chunk of investors

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Speaker 1: say that children even younger, So you know, kids perhaps

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Speaker 1: of primary school age, kindergarten age even should actually think

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Speaker 1: about healthcare because they think that may be where the

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Speaker 1: jobs of the future actually lie. So not even planets.

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Speaker 2: Partly, you know how much of that is down to

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Speaker 2: the advancements and our special intelligence and is our robots

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Speaker 2: coming for our jobs?

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Speaker 1: Caroline, Yes, a question we have perhaps daily, I suspect, Yeah, okay.

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Speaker 2: Another story that we had seen this morning as well

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Speaker 2: was to do with the Prime Minister's position on mats.

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Speaker 4: Oh.

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Speaker 1: Yes, now this is actually rapidly becoming a bit of

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Speaker 1: a hobby horse? Can I say that for the Prime Minister? So,

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Speaker 1: I mean we know that obviously he has a background

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Speaker 1: in the finance industry, but he's very very keen on

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Speaker 1: their biddy being better math skills, and apparently in a

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Speaker 1: speech that he's going to make today, he's going to

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Speaker 1: talk about numerocy being every bit as essential as reading.

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Speaker 1: I mean, obviously we would say that and agree wholeheartedly

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg i'sspe with that sentiment, but I was reading

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Speaker 1: around the topic and it is pretty bad actually, the

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Speaker 1: level of kind of basic math skills that a lot

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Speaker 1: of people in the UK have. Certainly when you compare

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Speaker 1: across OECD countries's UK doesn't perform that well.

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Speaker 2: Sadly, no, certainly doesn't appear to at the moment. Anyway.

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Speaker 2: Let's turn back though to the picture that we're going

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Speaker 2: to get from the data this week here in the UK,

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Speaker 2: the laster inflation figures due out on Wednesday. We're expecting

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Speaker 2: to see a slowdown, according to our survey, to nine

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Speaker 2: point eight percent for the month of March, down from

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Speaker 2: ten point four percent in February. This has more than

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Speaker 2: half of economists at Bloomberg News survey. Now I think

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Speaker 2: the Bank of England will hold rates at the next

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Speaker 2: meeting on the eleventh of May. Our UK correspondent Lizzie

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Speaker 2: Burdens with us in studio for more on this morning.

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Speaker 2: To you, Lizzie, what is then, first of all, starting

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Speaker 2: with inflation, what's expected to drive the expected slow down

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Speaker 2: in inflation?

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Speaker 7: Well, our economists at Bloomberg Economics reckon that upside inflation

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Speaker 7: surprise in February was just a blip, as Dan Hanson

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Speaker 7: put it, and as you say, most economists actually reckon

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Speaker 7: that inflation is going to slip back into single digits

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Speaker 7: in the figures this week. It'd be the first time

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Speaker 7: since August. Why, well, it's a mix of petrol prices

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Speaker 7: and core goods price inflation coming down. And then after

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Speaker 7: this set of data, economists to expect an even bigger

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Speaker 7: drop in April again because of energy. Of course, we

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Speaker 7: also get the jobs data tomorrow. They're expected to show

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Speaker 7: a slow down in pay growth that will feed into inflation.

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Speaker 7: But all in all, a fallen inflation would be a

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Speaker 7: big boost to Rishie Sunak because of course he's made

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Speaker 7: for harving inflation one of his top five priorities this year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, how could it not be given the cull of

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Speaker 1: living crisis, you know, despite the difficulty of impacting the

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Speaker 1: inflation figure of course from government. I mean what has

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Speaker 1: it meant though for shifting expectations for the Bank of England,

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Speaker 1: whose job it is actually to target inflation.

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Speaker 7: Well, if inflation can go back into single digits, it

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Speaker 7: dials back the pressure on the Bank of England to

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Speaker 7: keep hiking race. As you say, most economists reckon, we

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Speaker 7: won't see another rate rise in May. You've already had

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Speaker 7: eleven in a rower year of hikes. But unlike economists,

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Speaker 7: markets see another half point of hikes by September. They

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Speaker 7: see more than an eighty percent chance of another hike

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Speaker 7: in May. We heard from the Bank of England chief

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Speaker 7: economist Hugh pill last week. He was pretty cagey about

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Speaker 7: whether there's going to be another hike in May. He

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Speaker 7: said there's scope to do too much, there's also scope

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Speaker 7: to do too little. We also heard from Silvana Tenreiro.

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Speaker 7: She said again we've yet to see the full impact

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Speaker 7: of previous hikes, but you would expect her to vote

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Speaker 7: duvishly anyway. So the decision at this stage is a

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Speaker 7: question mark, and as I G. Says, the data this

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Speaker 7: week really our make or break for the main meeting.

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Speaker 2: Another aspect of this story is, of course the ongoing

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Speaker 2: industrial action we've seen here in the UK that feeds

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Speaker 2: into wage growth and the bigger inflation picture as well.

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Speaker 2: The latest developments have been around the strikes in the

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Speaker 2: healthcare sector. Tory Party chairman saying over the weekend the

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Speaker 2: government's payoffer to nurses was the best and final offer,

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Speaker 2: but the RCN has rejected it.

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Speaker 7: What happens next in this well, you've still got more

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Speaker 7: ballots to come from different nursing unions. Remember the Unison

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Speaker 7: union did vote to accept the payoffer, but it's a

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Speaker 7: classic case of don't count your chickens before they've hatched.

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Speaker 7: The government was flaunting the pay deal with the nurses

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Speaker 7: as a victory before the nurses themselves had been balloted,

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Speaker 7: and then Loan Behold the Royal College of Nursing rejected it.

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Speaker 7: They've said that strikes could go on till Christmas and

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Speaker 7: they could even be coordinated with the junior doctors, so

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Speaker 7: it puts a risk to health. Of course, there are

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Speaker 7: also economic consequences to the strikes. We've got an interview

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Speaker 7: with the City Minister a Through Griffith on the UK

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Speaker 7: Politics podcast this afternoon. Make sure to tune in at

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Speaker 7: twelve o'clock on Bloomberg Radio. One thing that we can

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Speaker 7: ask him, we should ask him is how long the

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Speaker 7: strikes need to go on for before the government's calculation changes.

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Speaker 7: So far, they've said that paying off the unions would

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Speaker 7: only add to inflation and hurt the economy. But as

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Speaker 7: you mentioned, Stephen, we saw in the February GDP data

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Speaker 7: that strikes were the main reason the economy didn't grow

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Speaker 7: that month. Of course, as well, it's not just economic consequences,

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Speaker 7: it's not just health. It's also political you've got the

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Speaker 7: local elections next month. Greg Hans, the Tory Party chairman,

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Speaker 7: admitted over the weekend that the party stands to lose

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Speaker 7: more than a thousand seats and that's going to be

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Speaker 7: a key indicator before the general election which we're expecting

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Speaker 7: in autumn twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, although some people did also see that as big

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Speaker 1: expectation management, you know, sort of painting a dire picture

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Speaker 1: in order for the worst to perhaps, you know, for

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Speaker 1: the outcome to be seen as better. I suppose, Lizzie,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us, our UK correspondent,

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Speaker 1: Lizzie Burden. They're sort of looking ahead then to the

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Speaker 1: inflation data. We get some employment figures out of the

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Speaker 1: UK this week, but also on the strikes coming up

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Speaker 1: next though. The Bank of England looks again at deposit guarantees,

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Speaker 1: the CBI quote too reliant on insiders, and ministers ignored

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Speaker 1: COVID fraud red flags.

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Speaker 4: Now the paper review on blue Bird Daybreak Europe. The

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Speaker 4: news you need to know from today's papers.

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Speaker 2: Blin Bergsleyanne Geron's is with us in studio with the

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Speaker 2: detail of those stories. Leanne. Let's start in the Financial Times,

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Speaker 2: Bank of England considers urgent reform of deposit guarantee scheme.

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Speaker 3: Yes, indeed, Stephens, so good morning to you. And this

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Speaker 3: is all according to the Financial Times and it says

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Speaker 3: the Bank of England is considering an overhaul of its

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Speaker 3: deposits guarantees scheme. Now, this comes after the collapse of

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Speaker 3: Silicon Valley Bank and its ukm The FT says reforms

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Speaker 3: are under consideration and they include raising the mound covered

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Speaker 3: for businesses from the current eighty five thousand pound limits,

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Speaker 3: as well as forcing banks to pre fund the system

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Speaker 3: to a greater extent to speed up payouts. Now, the

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Speaker 3: US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation guarantees deposits up to two

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Speaker 3: hundred and fifty thousand pounds, so this is a significant

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Speaker 3: amount to more than currently what we have here in

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Speaker 3: the UK. But the report didn't actually go into any

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Speaker 3: details on what the new limit could possibly be, and

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Speaker 3: the BOE is also declining to comment when Bloomberg News

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Speaker 3: did reach out to them on Sunday. But once again,

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Speaker 3: this overhaul of its deposits guarantee scheme by the central

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Speaker 3: Bank is in focus following the collapse of Silicon Valley.

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Speaker 3: Silicon Valley Bank and its uk RM.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a very interesting story and one that

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Speaker 1: we definitely need to watch. Meanwhile, another story that we

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Speaker 1: have been following closely The Times. Bosses say CBI two

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Speaker 1: reliant on insiders. Explain this one please.

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Speaker 3: Yes, indeed. So the Confederation of British Industry, Caroline and

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Speaker 3: Stephen has been looking to reset and that all comes

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Speaker 3: after recent turmoil. But the Business Lobby Group is now

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Speaker 3: facing fresh criticism and we're seeing this in the Times today.

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Speaker 3: So the chief Economist, that's Rain Newton Smith was actually

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Speaker 3: appointed as a new director General of the CBI, and

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Speaker 3: that was last week.

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Speaker 2: We heard of her appointment.

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Speaker 3: But politicians and business leaders say the decision to turn

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Speaker 3: to insiders to steer the CBI through misconduct allegations has

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Speaker 3: left them feeling somewhat uncomfortable and a little bit unsure

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Speaker 3: that it's coming from the inside to fix the current problems.

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Speaker 3: And Anne Frankie, the CEO of Chartered Management Institute, she

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Speaker 3: said the lobby Group had remained within its own boardroom

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Speaker 3: to identify what actually needs to be changed and how

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Speaker 3: this needs to happen. That's where the criticism is drawing

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Speaker 3: in now. The City of London Police has opened this

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Speaker 3: investigation into sexual misconduct in twenty nineteen by CBI staff.

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Speaker 3: Now I must say those allegations do not relate to

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Speaker 3: Tony Danka. He was the former Director General who did

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Speaker 3: leave the post, so he has seen him go. But

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Speaker 3: the blagoed group is told to break with its past.

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Speaker 3: This is what the retoric is really saying in the story.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and interesting. Actually, our colleagues Joe Mays and Sabam

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Speaker 2: Ddings had a piece also on the CBI over the

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Speaker 2: weekend which talked about some of these concerns from members

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Speaker 2: but also from other lobby groups about how the CBI

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Speaker 2: is being perceived in its future as well. So there's

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Speaker 2: more to read on that on Bloomberg as well. Let's

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Speaker 2: go to The Guardian next. Leanne ministers ignored red flags

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Speaker 2: over COVID frauds as the former head of the Serious

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Speaker 2: Fraud Office.

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Speaker 3: And this is another story we've covered quite a lot

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Speaker 3: and heard a lot more about Stephen and it's back

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Speaker 3: in the focus today and this is The Guardian. Now

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Speaker 3: they've done an exclusive interview with David Green. Now he

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Speaker 3: was a Serious Fraud Office director from twenty twelve to

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Speaker 3: twenty eighteen. Now he has told The Guardian red flags

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Speaker 3: were ignored by the government and this was in their massive,

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Speaker 3: massive rush to distribute taxpayer funded emergency loans to businesses

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Speaker 3: during the pandemic. We do know that that was something

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Speaker 3: that came in and happened super quickly. Now, Parliament's spending

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Speaker 3: watchdog estimates fraud and error were likely to have costed

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Speaker 3: the government as much as sixteen billion pounds, a huge

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Speaker 3: amount of money across the various COVID loan schemes, including

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Speaker 3: the ones for small businesses that came in. But the

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Speaker 3: government has recovered more than three point one billion pounds

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Speaker 3: of fraud losses in the last two years, including with

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Speaker 3: COVID loan schemes. But once again he said that government

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Speaker 3: acted too quickly, didn't have a look into these businesses

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Speaker 3: accounts properly, and there were lots of problems when it

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Speaker 3: came to distributing this money.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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Speaker 2: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

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Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hitka and.

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Speaker 2: I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again tomorrow morning for all

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg day Break Europe