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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough?

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Speaker 3: They're running again? So smoothe so sweet.

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Speaker 1: Splendid sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 1: is sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that shop with mind?

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Speaker 4: Good buddy, and that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 3: Look at his movements, the most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody picks them. Shut up, I'm trying the one. It's

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Speaker 3: left too, the wide eyed.

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Speaker 1: Drilled bibus how old earth?

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Speaker 4: Pick that happens? Helloy one and welcome back to Wondergol,

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Speaker 4: the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network. My name

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Speaker 4: is Michael Leebop and joining me for this abbreviated episode

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Speaker 4: Anthony de Bundo and BJ Cunningham. Before I bring those

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Speaker 4: two gentlemen in to break down this weekend's five game

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Speaker 4: Premier League, Slate will also do a little Bundesliga sia

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Speaker 4: La Liga Legal and a real treat some Asian Cup

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Speaker 4: and African Cup of Nations betting tidbits from BJ. But

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Speaker 4: before we get to all that good stuff, a reminder

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Speaker 4: that Wonder Goal is proudly presented by bet three sixty

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Speaker 4: five and bet three six five doesn't do ordinary. It

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Speaker 4: believes that every sport should be epic. Every tournament, every game,

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Speaker 4: every point, every play, from the moments that are legendary

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Speaker 4: to the ones that fly under the radar. C for

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Speaker 4: yourself when you sign up with Promo Code Action and

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Speaker 4: you get three hundred and sixty five dollars in bonus bets,

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Speaker 4: when you bet just one dollar, whatever the sport, whatever

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Speaker 4: the moment, it's never ordinary. At bet three sixty five,

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Speaker 4: you must be twenty one or older, and you also

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Speaker 4: must be present in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio,

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Speaker 4: or Virginia. And if you or someone you know has

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Speaker 4: a gambling problem and wants help, please call one one

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Speaker 4: hundred gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia

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Speaker 4: or one one hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms and

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Speaker 4: conditions apply. Okay, Like I said, five Premier League matches

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Speaker 4: coming up here. This is a part of the season

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Speaker 4: where it starts to get a little tricky because you're

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Speaker 4: just the schedules get all wonky. The fixtures have piled up,

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Speaker 4: teams will be playing Fa Cup. You know, replays. If

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Speaker 4: you're Everden, you know, midweeks some weeks and there is

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Speaker 4: some homework to be done here. But I think the

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Speaker 4: first one is pretty straightforward, and the headliner, it's pretty straightforward.

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Speaker 4: It's Newcastle and man City meeting in the northeast at

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Speaker 4: Saint James Park. Newcastle is a plus four fifty underdog

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Speaker 4: city traveling minus one eighty two favorite. The draw here

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Speaker 4: is plus three thirty three. I'm just gonna kick it

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Speaker 4: right over you BJ. I think we'd all be in

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Speaker 4: agreement here that it's the city is probably not the

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Speaker 4: way you want to look, but there are obviously still

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Speaker 4: concerns for Newcastle.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, since we've talked, you know, Newcastle got things back

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Speaker 1: on track a little bit beating Sunderland in the f

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Speaker 1: A Cup.

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Speaker 4: That that that's what.

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Speaker 3: But is that the only thing that's happened since we've talked.

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Speaker 3: Another game.

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Speaker 1: We had a record, a Premier League record for expected

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Speaker 1: goals created in a match. Depending on the model you

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Speaker 1: look at, it really doesn't matter, but Liverpool created just

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Speaker 1: north of seven expected goals against Newcastle on New Year's Day.

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Speaker 1: They played the game they played at anfield and fortune,

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Speaker 1: which nobody we have fortress where nobody can win. Newcastle

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Speaker 1: looks broken, like there's really no other way to describe it.

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Speaker 2: Their press isn't working.

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Speaker 4: Uh.

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Speaker 1: The fact that if they do decide to play more passive,

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Speaker 1: which I thought in a four or five one they

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Speaker 1: had a chance of doing against Liverpool, I was wrong.

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Speaker 1: You know, under three and a half in Newcastle plus

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Speaker 1: one and a half. You can chalk those up as

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Speaker 1: the worst my worst bets of the Premier leagu season.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it'll get worse than that. Maybe it will,

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Speaker 1: who knows. But the fact that Newcastle can't really apply

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Speaker 1: the pressure that we've been seeing from Eddie how over

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Speaker 1: and over again is really really concerning. And you know,

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Speaker 1: the last time that these two met City basically just

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Speaker 1: controlled the bad. Nothing really happened and they got an

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Speaker 1: early goal and they just kind of sat on it

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Speaker 1: and Newcastle wasn't able to win the ball off of them.

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Speaker 2: But I have real concerns.

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Speaker 1: Here about how Newcastle is going to disrupt cities build

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Speaker 1: up play city is getting fully healthy now they have

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Speaker 1: everybody at their disposal, and that's a real problem though.

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Speaker 1: Isn't everybody in Man City sick right now? They might

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Speaker 1: be yeah, I think a little recording this on Wednesdays, so.

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Speaker 4: You know, Michael, there's something going around.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, looks like Silva and a Kanji or Silva is

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Speaker 1: the only one right now that has uh this noted

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Speaker 1: on the entry report. Holland is doubtful, which you know

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Speaker 1: makes a good case there for new Castle. But I

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Speaker 1: think we need to give new Gass some time here

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Speaker 1: to whether we want to buy on them, because I've tried,

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Speaker 1: Like I've tried to buy on them against the Hunting Forest,

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Speaker 1: so they got beat pretty badly. I tried to buy

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Speaker 1: on them against Liverpool, they got beat pretty badly, and

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Speaker 1: I tried to actually bet against them. I bet on

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Speaker 1: sunder Lad in the NFFA Cup and they beat them.

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Speaker 1: So I can't really figure out this team right now,

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Speaker 1: so I'm just going to pass on this one. The

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Speaker 1: number is a little too high. I only had to

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Speaker 1: city around mys one point. So the value I think

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Speaker 1: is on Newcastle, especially while it's not going to play.

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Speaker 1: But they just look broken right now. I don't really

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Speaker 1: know what the solution is unless they can get their

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Speaker 1: high press back. So unless we start seeing signs of that,

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Speaker 1: I can't I can't buy law on Newcastle.

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Speaker 4: The uh, I don't. It's it's kind of hard to

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Speaker 4: think of a time when a team needs to be

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Speaker 4: downgraded this drastically, this quickly, or you're even considering it.

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Speaker 4: Like you can talk about Chelsea last year, but that

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Speaker 4: was Chelsea never really got going like Newcastle started the season. Bye,

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Speaker 4: they were they were pretty playing pretty well. We were

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Speaker 4: talking about them, and you know, is a Champions League

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Speaker 4: team that could have and should have probably got out

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Speaker 4: of the Group of Death by the time that that

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Speaker 4: league started. I should say, like you probably put them

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Speaker 4: ahead of dortmunden Milan in that group. But yeah, it's

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Speaker 4: it's it's going downhill fast. And it's also getting weird

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Speaker 4: with like Eddie Howe, who went from being is he

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Speaker 4: the best manager in the world back around Halloween too?

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Speaker 4: How much longer does he have? So there's there's like

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Speaker 4: a lot of little fires everywhere here with Newcastle making

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Speaker 4: them a little unappealing Against Man City, I would be

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Speaker 4: tempted here at home, like in the spot, but especially

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Speaker 4: with the way like City hasn't set the world up fire,

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Speaker 4: but we do expect them to kind of click it

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Speaker 4: into gear at some point, Anthony.

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Speaker 1: They don't really get a home like like we forget

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Speaker 1: that they're like one of the worst row teams in

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Speaker 1: the Premier League, so you know, going to anfield I

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Speaker 1: guess was you.

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Speaker 2: Know, a bad spot for them.

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Speaker 1: And really their only bad performance at home is really

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Speaker 1: been again not even for it. So the last you know,

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Speaker 1: a few months, they're still putting up in an insane

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Speaker 1: expectable differential at home. So you could make the case

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Speaker 1: that way, but their defense is really really bad right now.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's the transition defense that's really alarming, right Like

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Speaker 3: they're getting done to them what they did to teams.

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Speaker 3: It's like we're going to hit you on the break,

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Speaker 3: We're gonna get these one v ones. Your defense is

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Speaker 3: going to not be able to withstand the pressure and

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Speaker 3: we're going to get a ton of big scoring chances

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Speaker 3: off of not a lot of shots because like the

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Speaker 3: shots per game are only up a little bit. But

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Speaker 3: the xcheper shot is insane since that Bournemouth match, which

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Speaker 3: is really like the turning point two point five XGA

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Speaker 3: per ninety that is dead last in the prem It

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Speaker 3: doesn't even include that they conceded four and a half

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Speaker 3: to PSG almost two to Milan in that second matchup

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Speaker 3: in the Champions League. You know, we came into the

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Speaker 3: year and remember back in the season, early in the

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Speaker 3: season when the market would steam under every match and

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Speaker 3: we would say, well, this attack, like, they can't keep

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Speaker 3: doing this. It turns out the defense fell off a

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Speaker 3: cliff before first for the attack, because the attack is

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Speaker 3: still pretty good. I was actually looking to play in

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Speaker 3: over here, but the number is a little bit higher

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Speaker 3: than I make it, so I'm still not sure how

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Speaker 3: to price this defense either. It's a classic example of like, okay,

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Speaker 3: sometimes teams have dips in form and it's just a

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Speaker 3: dip in form and the market overreacts. Sometimes the market

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Speaker 3: is right right, and like the market is ahead of

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Speaker 3: the fact that this team is completely cliff falling off

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Speaker 3: a cliff, And in this case, like I don't even

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Speaker 3: know what to do with my priors on Newcastle because yeah,

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Speaker 3: I show volume on them every week too, Because like,

169
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Speaker 3: if you bake in a lot more of the data

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Speaker 3: from you know, the last year and a half when

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Speaker 3: they were very good, you can't overreact to one sample

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Speaker 3: where they've been a below average Premier League team. But

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Speaker 3: like with every passing match just feels more and more

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Speaker 3: likely the question is like, Okay, yes, we know they

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Speaker 3: went through this insane period where they played a shit

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Speaker 3: ton of matches. What happens when they come out of that?

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Speaker 3: Do they have their legs again? Are they going to

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Speaker 3: start rotating through players? Are they going to you know,

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Speaker 3: take advantage of this you quote un quote time off

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Speaker 3: where they didn't play as many matches. They have this

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Speaker 3: match and they're gonna have some real time off until

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Speaker 3: the end of the month. So you know, what does

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Speaker 3: that look like for this team? I really don't know.

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Speaker 3: We can't know until we figure out, Like you know, there,

185
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Speaker 3: how are they going to play their Their x G

186
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Speaker 3: per shot attempt is over point one five and seven

187
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Speaker 3: of their last nine matches and the only one that

188
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Speaker 3: doesn't count for that was Fulham who played with that

189
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Speaker 3: got a man for most of the match. So they're

190
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Speaker 3: just conceding way too many big chances in transition, they're

191
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Speaker 3: getting dribbled on very easily. It's all signs of a

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Speaker 3: team that's tired and can't stop teams on the break.

193
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Speaker 1: I think a good littus test after this match, they're

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Speaker 1: going to play away at aston Villa on January thirtieth,

195
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Speaker 1: so they'll have I.

196
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Speaker 3: Looked at the number, by the way, what is it?

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Speaker 3: What do you think it is? Villa at home?

198
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Speaker 2: New Villa minus one twenty yeah, one.

199
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Speaker 3: Ten one ten. I was looking at it like, oh, man,

200
00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,280
Speaker 3: like we're gonna to look back and laugh if like

201
00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:03,240
Speaker 3: Newcastles doesn't have their life of them, like that's just

202
00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:04,040
Speaker 3: like a bad line.

203
00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:07,000
Speaker 1: Well, if you remember they destroyed Aston Villa right at

204
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Speaker 1: the gates to begin they did, so now they get

205
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Speaker 1: this break and so that's that'll be really really interesting match.

206
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Speaker 3: So that's I think Newcastle is kind of a stay

207
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Speaker 3: away from me right now, though I don't want to

208
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Speaker 3: bet them, but like, think about this, like Everton just

209
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Speaker 3: played City, same same spot, same line. So that's how

210
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Speaker 3: far the market is down. Great, Newcastle.

211
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Speaker 2: Is the best team in the world.

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Speaker 4: We know that. Yeah, we'll get to Everdon the Everden Party,

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Speaker 4: the weekly Everden Party in a couple of games here

214
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Speaker 4: just over there. Since November one, most teams have played

215
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Speaker 4: ten games time since then. Cities four wins, four draws

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Speaker 4: and a loss. They're expected points are a little bit

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Speaker 4: higher than that. Say, it's they've been a little unlucky,

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Speaker 4: but that's that's the other kind of thing. That's weighing

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Speaker 4: on this one here is like are they right for

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Speaker 4: the picking? But then you said you look at Newcastles.

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Speaker 4: It's uh, it's tough. It It does feel like one

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Speaker 4: of those situations where the best bet you can make

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Speaker 4: in this game is probably to bet on another match.

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Speaker 4: So let's do that. United and Spurs up next. Man

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Speaker 4: Man United plus one twenty at home Anthony's Tottenham Hot

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Speaker 4: Spurs traveling as a plus two one hundred underdog, and

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Speaker 4: the draw is plus two seventy five on two teams

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Speaker 4: that you can say have kind of in a weird

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Speaker 4: way over the past I don't know, the second half

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Speaker 4: of the first half of the season have taken different

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Speaker 4: routes to get to mediocrity. Both have even goal differentials

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Speaker 4: since that November first date that I talked about, where

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Speaker 4: each team has played ten matches. Each team is basically

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Speaker 4: five hundred in terms of wins and losses with a

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Speaker 4: draw sprinkled in there. It's like, are these teams just

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Speaker 4: bang it bang like the same like in terms of

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Speaker 4: like your power ratings like here, I think it kind

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Speaker 4: of feels that way and that makes the line look

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Speaker 4: just about right. So ah, a pass for me. I

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Speaker 4: think it's a pretty good game to have some fun

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Speaker 4: and live trade if you want Anthony, yeah.

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Speaker 3: I mean Spurs without Sonny probably, yes, I would agree, right, Like,

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Speaker 3: Tottenham has played some pretty biabolical defensive lineups in the

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Speaker 3: last few weeks and they've played some pretty awful defense

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Speaker 3: as a result. They have brought in a winger who

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Speaker 3: I expect to start in this winger, slash forward, whatever

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Speaker 3: you want to call him at this point, wide forward,

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Speaker 3: not really a striker. But Timo Werner's back baby. I'm

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Speaker 3: so I'm so excited for this because like the story

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Speaker 3: of Timo Werner. Most like Premier League fans who don't

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Speaker 3: really watch Germany, we'll look at Timo Werner and say, oh,

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Speaker 3: that guy's stung and it's like a weird story, right,

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Speaker 3: because Werner was a really good young, you know, forward

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Speaker 3: at Stuttgart and the Leipzig was putting up like point

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Speaker 3: sixty five xg per ninety in the Bundesliga and finishing

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Speaker 3: well above those numbers. That got him the move to Chelsea,

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Speaker 3: and he played in a Chelsea team that was kind

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Speaker 3: of you know, it was very two cole at the beginning,

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Speaker 3: especially like very constrained, there was not a ton place

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Speaker 3: on attacking like they were very defensive outfit, and his

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Speaker 3: numbers predictably dropped because you know, you go from the

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Speaker 3: Bundesliga to the PREM, you go from like point sixty

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Speaker 3: five xg per ninety to like point four five per

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Speaker 3: ninety xg, which is about like a league average mid

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Speaker 3: table to above average striker, which is like what I

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Speaker 3: think he is in the Prem. And he was also

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Speaker 3: giving them good numbers and passing like expected assists were

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Speaker 3: pretty good, key passes were pretty good, so you could

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Speaker 3: justify it. But the problem was he went into this

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Speaker 3: huge finishing slump and obviously got in his head a

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Speaker 3: little bit. He's not like the most textbook nownatural ball strikers,

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Speaker 3: so he had this horrible slump that was coincided with

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Speaker 3: when the most eyeballs were on him. And then he

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Speaker 3: goes back to Germany and even toward the end of

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Speaker 3: his Chelsea career, the numbers on the finishing started to

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Speaker 3: take back up again to the point where he's just

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Speaker 3: like an average finisher over his career. And here's the

278
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Speaker 3: difference though, it's his German numbers the second time around,

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Speaker 3: since he's gone back to Leipzig have been worse, and

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Speaker 3: so you know, his EXCTUG numbers are down, they're closer

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Speaker 3: to like what he was doing in the PREM. Which

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Speaker 3: given you went from the PREM to the German Bundesliga,

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Speaker 3: you should go up in your production. It's just a

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Speaker 3: more attacking league. So I'm kind of uncertain about Timo

285
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Speaker 3: right now, but they certainly needed something because they can't

286
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Speaker 3: roll out like Brian Heel or like what are the options?

287
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Speaker 3: You know, Brennan Johnson is okay, He's been okay for them,

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Speaker 3: but like, I think he can get them some shots.

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Speaker 3: He'll get space in behind to run into, which but

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Speaker 3: he loves. So I'm intrigued by what he looks like

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Speaker 3: in this team. I'm excited for it as far as

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Speaker 3: his match goes, Like I don't know, man like Brighton

293
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Speaker 3: and Spurs closed to pick him against one another two

294
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Speaker 3: weeks ago. United's a favorite. Now is that reasonable? You know,

295
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Speaker 3: obviously we all bet Brighton. Now I think the number

296
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Speaker 3: is kind of right, So United, you know, some interesting

297
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Speaker 3: news here on attack they might like there's still some

298
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Speaker 3: uncertainty they might get Lesandra Martinez back, Like there's a possibility.

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Speaker 3: I don't think he'd start here, but there's a possibility

300
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Speaker 3: he's back otherwise, Like it's the same United team we've

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Speaker 3: been seeing them roll out and you know they had

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Speaker 3: that one second half against Villa and then followed it

303
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Speaker 3: up with like a pretty lackluster display against Forrest, you know,

304
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Speaker 3: a week later. So what is this United team? They're

305
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Speaker 3: just very average?

306
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I means there's some positive injuriers for Tottenham. Looks

307
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Speaker 1: like Vandaven is going to be back for this month,

308
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Speaker 1: which is massive for Time's ability to defend and transition

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Speaker 1: obviously when we're going to try to overload.

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Speaker 3: But I think it's gonna be him and Royale again, right,

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Speaker 3: Davies out.

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Speaker 2: Well, Dragonson's coming over from General.

313
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Speaker 3: He's not gonna He hasn't even gone the move yet though.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

315
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Speaker 1: Yeah, but you know, Tottenham's midfield has been kind of

316
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Speaker 1: ripped apart here. You know, Basuma and Saw are both

317
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Speaker 1: off of the Afcon lacelso looks doubtful here.

318
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Speaker 3: So what is going to be like skip skip Benton Kerr.

319
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Speaker 1: Benton Kerr would be their midfield here.

320
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Speaker 3: It's not great.

321
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Speaker 2: It's not great.

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Speaker 3: United doesn't play at midfield.

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Speaker 1: It don't because now Amerbat's off to Afcon as well.

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Speaker 1: And I want to point this out because we're going

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Speaker 1: to be accept this to Anthony last night when we

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Speaker 1: talked about Arsel next week. But our guy Mark Stats,

327
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Speaker 1: who's a brilliant follow on Twitter you should follow him,

328
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Speaker 1: put out these ball progression efficiency which is basically players

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Speaker 1: who can move the ball for at the same time

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Speaker 1: essentially not his possessions. So how good are you at ball?

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Speaker 1: Karen and United? Amber Bat has actually been in the

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Speaker 1: eighty percentile of that mctow is in the thirty third,

333
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Speaker 1: which is not really that surprising. So now that amber

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Speaker 1: Bat's off to af Coon, Casimiro being injured, it's probably

335
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Speaker 1: gonna be ericson mcdonmin a double pivot again, which is

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Speaker 1: what we've been seeing and hasn't really been working for United.

337
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Speaker 1: Hoyland's been terrible in ball progression because well, they signed

338
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Speaker 1: him up to be more of a transitional type striker.

339
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Speaker 1: They didn't ask him to be this kind of wall

340
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Speaker 1: progressor he's somebody who gets in behind the behind the

341
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Speaker 1: back line, which of toms to play a high line.

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Speaker 1: He could maybe have a good game here, but is

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Speaker 1: he going to actually be able to do that. I'm

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Speaker 1: not so sure.

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Speaker 2: So, yeah, this is a pass.

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Speaker 1: Like you said, Michael, this is a good, live, gutting opportunity.

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Speaker 1: I was looking at the over here, but now the

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Speaker 1: band events back and sons out richardoson ni Top for

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Speaker 1: Tomman movie.

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Speaker 2: I guess So I'm not sure.

351
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Speaker 3: Yeah, he's been he's been better, chicks up XG's up,

352
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Speaker 3: he's been healthier. I'm intrigued by that. But yeah, I

353
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Speaker 3: think the lack of midfield for both teams kind of

354
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Speaker 3: just means that both teams just kind of turned this

355
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Speaker 3: into basketball again. Like he was very evident how many

356
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Speaker 3: times Bourne myth was able to play one long pass

357
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Speaker 3: and completely like immediately one pass and it was just like,

358
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Speaker 3: oh they have a three on three, or oh they

359
00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:05,320
Speaker 3: have a three on two, or oh they have a

360
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Speaker 3: four on three against Spurs. And that's like the one

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Speaker 3: thing I still think United's good at. I mean, we

362
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Speaker 3: saw it against Villa, like they're very capable of, you know,

363
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Speaker 3: running in behind and having good runners in Rashford and

364
00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:20,199
Speaker 3: and Bruno playing those passes like that's what they're good at,

365
00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:22,399
Speaker 3: especially if they do start Erickson as well. There's just

366
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Speaker 3: a lot of high risk passing in that midfield, and

367
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Speaker 3: there's not a lot of midfielding that midfield, so it

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Speaker 3: just it just screams over to me from a tactical perspective.

369
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Speaker 3: And Tottenham there's been since November three point seven to

370
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Speaker 3: eight expected goals combined per match in Spurs matches, second

371
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Speaker 3: a third highest, ahead of or behind only Chelsea and Newcastle.

372
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Speaker 3: So those are the three like cocaine ball teams right now,

373
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Speaker 3: which is kind of wild given what we know about

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Speaker 3: those teams. But yeah, I mean Tottenham just like I mean,

375
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Speaker 3: how do you bet Spurs unders? I'm sorry, it's just

376
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Speaker 3: like insane. I thought I had one with Bourne myth

377
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Speaker 3: last week and then all of a sudden it was

378
00:18:57,320 --> 00:18:59,159
Speaker 3: one nail after seventy five and it was three to

379
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Speaker 3: one by the end of the game. So just crazy

380
00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:04,440
Speaker 3: open and it's fun, but like they're not playing any

381
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Speaker 3: even with Van deven in like first game back. You know,

382
00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:10,560
Speaker 3: it's it's it's tough no midfield in front of.

383
00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:14,719
Speaker 4: Him all right. By the way, February twenty third, make

384
00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:19,000
Speaker 4: sure you're in on what will be a required play

385
00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 4: from at least you two that's Tiamo. Erner just scored

386
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:29,240
Speaker 4: two plus at Chelsea or against Chelsea. Evert did, Oh yeah, well, yeah,

387
00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,320
Speaker 4: we'll get to that in a few months. Which is

388
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Speaker 4: no way he.

389
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Speaker 3: Starts It is a year. Say that again, Anthony, No

390
00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:38,760
Speaker 3: way he starts an anaglesman team.

391
00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:43,080
Speaker 4: He does, that would be electric though. Okay, we'll do

392
00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:45,639
Speaker 4: that podcast in a couple of months. Yeah, it is

393
00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:49,440
Speaker 4: a It is a euro season and so you will

394
00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:53,119
Speaker 4: be hearing from us leading into that tournament. Probably use

395
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,480
Speaker 4: one of the international breaks to maybe do a stage

396
00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:59,119
Speaker 4: setter as well, But until then you're stuck with Everett

397
00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 4: and in aston Ville. This one at Goodison Park the

398
00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:04,720
Speaker 4: bear Pit, uh topies plus one eighty bill up plus

399
00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:08,120
Speaker 4: one forty five and a draw would pay out plus

400
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:12,159
Speaker 4: two fifty. These two teams met earlier this season and

401
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,440
Speaker 4: it didn't go well for Everton, But boy have things

402
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 4: changed since then, boy boy boy, for both teams. These

403
00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:21,760
Speaker 4: are the number one and number two in BJ's power rankings,

404
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:28,120
Speaker 4: Everton in a class above Billy rankings too. Yeah, exactly exactly.

405
00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:32,920
Speaker 4: It does seem like we're all in in some sort

406
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:37,160
Speaker 4: of agreement here that the value side in in this match.

407
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:41,359
Speaker 1: Whichday morning it's people hate how much we bet on

408
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:41,880
Speaker 1: ever since.

409
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:45,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, but don't worry, it won't. It will not. It

410
00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:47,360
Speaker 4: will always be the right size, but and we'll will

411
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:49,560
Speaker 4: always be correct in our analysis. But will it win

412
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:50,760
Speaker 4: every time? Absolutely not?

413
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:54,399
Speaker 3: Will it win more as I can't believe I didn't.

414
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 3: I I was such a coward two weeks ago. I

415
00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,879
Speaker 3: think it was what Near's Eve and they played well

416
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:01,720
Speaker 3: Everton Wolves. I don't remember when the game was, but

417
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 3: they played each other and I came on and I said,

418
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:05,720
Speaker 3: I love the over and then I was like, you

419
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:07,520
Speaker 3: know what, I'm just gonna bet Everton instead. And then

420
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,919
Speaker 3: of course it goes over and Everyton never showed up

421
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 3: to the pitch. I mean, it was just like horrendous

422
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:14,240
Speaker 3: wolves over. So we don't get to do them this week.

423
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:16,159
Speaker 3: But yeah, no, I think Everton. I mean, this is

424
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Speaker 3: like the eighth time and like ten matches I'm betting Everton.

425
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 3: We had like a good run, you know, we won

426
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:22,040
Speaker 3: like four in row, so we had to give some back,

427
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 3: you know, right, and now we run again.

428
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Speaker 2: The markets low. We got to keep the market low.

429
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Speaker 1: We can't just let the market get out of whackt

430
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Speaker 1: the and we can't bet Everton anymore.

431
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,959
Speaker 3: I make him dead dead nut pick like tick them

432
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 3: plus one oh one. So if you get more than that,

433
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,040
Speaker 3: I'm fine with Everton. I would not be laying jews

434
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 3: on the pick them here. But uh, you know, there's

435
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,240
Speaker 3: a few things here that are interesting to me. First

436
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:45,280
Speaker 3: of all, Calvert Lewins suspension was overturned, so he'll be

437
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:47,880
Speaker 3: able to play in this one. That's nice, uh Toffees.

438
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:52,160
Speaker 3: You know, stylistically this is a fun matchup because Villa

439
00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:54,560
Speaker 3: doesn't press right, they play that high line, they try

440
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,640
Speaker 3: to condense the space. Well, Everton doesn't really care about

441
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 3: you condensing midfield space. They're just gonna They're just gonna

442
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 3: send it long. It's kind of what Bournemouth did and

443
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 3: Bournemouth had a ton of success against Villa in a

444
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:07,399
Speaker 3: very similar spot. Granted Bournmouth was plus a half, but

445
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:11,359
Speaker 3: like from from a match of perspective, you know, Everton

446
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 3: is just gonna play over the top anyway and then

447
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:16,360
Speaker 3: have runners off and I think if they're timing it well,

448
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:18,440
Speaker 3: they can get a bunch of chances in behind this

449
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,040
Speaker 3: Villa defense, which I still think is a Ponzi defensively,

450
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:23,159
Speaker 3: and you're starting to see some cracks with Villa, you know,

451
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 3: like the last three or four matches. They get the

452
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,360
Speaker 3: Lake goal to steal a point against Sheffield after they

453
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 3: were pretty lackluster and attack for most of that match.

454
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,920
Speaker 3: I kind of think this sets up similarly where Sheffield

455
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,360
Speaker 3: Everton's can be very passive and then you know, against Burnley,

456
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 3: like a red card happens and they're still not really

457
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 3: dominating the match, so they get a late penalty, which

458
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:45,239
Speaker 3: really I thought was dubious. So the biggest edge here

459
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 3: for Everton is set pieces though second and x G

460
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:50,160
Speaker 3: per set piece, Villa's dead last. They don't have great

461
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:52,119
Speaker 3: ball winners in the air, un thus they're not very

462
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 3: good on set piece defense. That's where you can get

463
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:57,159
Speaker 3: this Villa team. I know this, This just screams like

464
00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 3: Emmy Martinez masterclass. I just like have that pictured like

465
00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:03,960
Speaker 3: it's gonna end. It's gonna end one.

466
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:05,200
Speaker 2: Way happened last year.

467
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,400
Speaker 1: If you're Everton dominated them and Aston Villa got two

468
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 1: transition attacks and b the two nothing mm hmmm, so yep, yeah, yeah,

469
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 1: I mean I agree with Anthony. I mean the thing

470
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 1: about him, like you hit the nail on the head

471
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 1: with asen Villa wanting condensed space, Well everything just plays

472
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 1: the ball out wide no matter what anyway, like they

473
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:25,880
Speaker 1: just want to send balls across as they don't play

474
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 1: through the middle of the pitch. They are second in

475
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:31,680
Speaker 1: the Premier League and crosses completed into the penalty area.

476
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 1: It looks like Decore is going to be back for

477
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 1: this match, which is very very big for them because

478
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 1: you know with Everton playing a four four one one

479
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:45,719
Speaker 1: to Corey being in this box crashing striker, I mean

480
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 1: he leads Everton and both touches and carries into the

481
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 1: penalty area. Also point four six xt G plus XA

482
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:53,399
Speaker 1: for ninety minutes, so a very very important piece to

483
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:58,919
Speaker 1: what Everton wants to do offensively. And I mean Anthony

484
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 1: mentioned it a cu waiks ago. But aston Villa's road

485
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 1: form of the season has been terrible, Like they're a

486
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 1: minus one point six expected goldfferential for ninety minutes and

487
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 1: they have four wins. And if we dived into what

488
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 1: those four wins were and how they came about, they

489
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:15,439
Speaker 1: dominated out Yeah, they dominated Burnley early in the season.

490
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 1: They beat a ten man Chelsea team one nothing, but

491
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,640
Speaker 1: they lost the expected goals battle, beat Tottenham but lost

492
00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 1: the expected goals battle, and then beat a ten man

493
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:25,160
Speaker 1: Brentford team, like, that's all they've done.

494
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 4: On the road.

495
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 2: Other than that, they have not played well.

496
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 1: So obviously Everton a Goodison Park and around a plus

497
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,119
Speaker 1: six point they have been about a plus six expected

498
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 1: gol differential at home. Great creates botire for Everton. Yeah,

499
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 1: I projicted Everton's like it ever ever so slight favorite.

500
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,639
Speaker 1: So I'm right on with Anthony. You can find Everton

501
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 1: donald at plus one oh seven right now at bet

502
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 1: through sixty five. So that is what I played, and

503
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 1: I would recommend for this match.

504
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:53,640
Speaker 4: Somehow become an Everden podcast.

505
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 2: It always happen, it does.

506
00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:58,119
Speaker 4: It just doesn't really sit well with me, to be honest.

507
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,399
Speaker 4: But that's okay. What does this su well with you?

508
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 4: I know I like I like misery.

509
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 3: You would prefer them suck and he gets you're you got.

510
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 1: Your ten point deduction to be in a relegation battle and.

511
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 4: You want That's true. Thank you for the That's what

512
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 4: we want. I love that kind of adversity. Burnley are

513
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:21,440
Speaker 4: a odds on favorite against Lutontown minus one of six

514
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 4: at home, luten traveling plus two eighty and the draw

515
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 4: here is plus two eighty as well. A relegation six pointer.

516
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 4: Uh Looten Town can if they get a win here

517
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:38,920
Speaker 4: and Everden do not, they pull themselves out of the

518
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:42,400
Speaker 4: relegation zone for the time being because of the aforementioned

519
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 4: ten point deduction, although it did come out that Everdon

520
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:49,679
Speaker 4: hired some big wig lawyer or a barrister as they

521
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 4: call him over there, super Silk.

522
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:54,640
Speaker 2: To be in the top ten.

523
00:25:55,280 --> 00:26:00,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, if you believe, if you believe in super silks.

524
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,120
Speaker 1: Somebody, somebody, one of our listeners, can you dig into

525
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,680
Speaker 1: this lawyer, how good he is and he's type of

526
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 1: tastes he's overturned.

527
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 4: I would I don't mind a bet here Ontluton Town.

528
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 3: I know he was gonna say it.

529
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 2: I know, and I don't but I don't project any

530
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:20,160
Speaker 2: value on this match.

531
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:24,640
Speaker 3: And neither but I would lean toward Burnley. Interesting why Well,

532
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 3: like Luton, they have been competitive at home. A lot

533
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 3: of it's been shot stopping from Kaminski, who is elite

534
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:33,640
Speaker 3: in goal this year, third best goal in the league

535
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 3: by ps x G plus four each of the last

536
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:38,879
Speaker 3: two years he was a plus three keeper goals saved

537
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:43,639
Speaker 3: in the Championship. But like okay, so Luton has been

538
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:46,399
Speaker 3: fine at home like they've been relatively competitive. They have

539
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 3: played a very tough home schedule. When they've gone away

540
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 3: from home, I mean it's been completely undercompetitive. They got

541
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 3: smoked at Sheffield, he got smoked at Everton, and they

542
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 3: won both those matches by by miracle goal, deflection, luck

543
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 3: and variants they got. They've given up at least two

544
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 3: ext gy in every other match except one against Fulham,

545
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,640
Speaker 3: who played without a striker that day. They're actually different

546
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 3: away from home minus one point seven. And we had

547
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:15,199
Speaker 3: this conversation like three a month ago when Sheffield went

548
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 3: to Burnley, and I was like, look, I get that,

549
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 3: like Burnley is also bad, but like they're still for

550
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 3: me a couple of ticks above Luton and Sheffield, Burnley

551
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:28,120
Speaker 3: is and thus like at home only minus one oh six.

552
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 3: Like if I had to bet it would Burnley, I

553
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 3: make them minus one twenty one. Luton has attempted the

554
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,160
Speaker 3: fewest passes in the Prem by like a wide margin.

555
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 3: They're not going to try to keep the ball right,

556
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 3: They're not gonna disrupt Burnley at all. So yeah, they're

557
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 3: gonna give Burnley the ball and daring to break them down.

558
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:46,399
Speaker 3: But like Burnley, like I'm not gonna say anything good

559
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 3: about them. I just think that they're not better than

560
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:50,159
Speaker 3: Luton Town and two seventy is not good enough to

561
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 3: eighty on Luton for me. You see the point like

562
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:56,879
Speaker 3: of the whole life. So teams, you know, take the

563
00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 3: dog embrace it.

564
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 1: Luton is going to be into defense because obviously lock

565
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 1: they're still out, but Kabore is off the half con

566
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 1: Marvelous Nakamba is also out injured, so Carlton Morris looks

567
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 1: like he's questionable as well.

568
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:15,439
Speaker 2: But you know, they have their own yeah issues.

569
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:19,400
Speaker 1: Wild Foster has been pretty much everything to that he's questionable.

570
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 1: Jordan Bay or one of their center backs is questionable.

571
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 4: Coolio Show is out like the rest of the season.

572
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:30,719
Speaker 4: So this one looks ugly ugly to put it, Friday

573
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 4: afternoon game, this one looks ugly. I like the doc.

574
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:37,439
Speaker 4: It's it's just purely and Newton was the.

575
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 1: Better team when these two faced off last time. I mean,

576
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 1: and there was that Lowton Obviously they didn't lose too

577
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 1: If if either of these teams survived forlegation, it'll be Yeah.

578
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 3: I don't think there's really anybody that close anymore though,

579
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 3: I mean, like obviously we know the table says Everton

580
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 3: and Brentford are right there. Not really though, like we

581
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 3: know those teams are much better and the market knows

582
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 3: that too. And then Forrest have gotten a couple of

583
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:08,960
Speaker 3: results here with nun so now like they are five

584
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 3: points clear Pallace, I don't really see them falling. Fulham's

585
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 3: got a head start, so it's I mean, it might be.

586
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:17,480
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be a very boring relegation race.

587
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, we'll finish up with Chelsea and full for the

588
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 4: segment Chelsea mightus won sixty seven full plus four twenty

589
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 4: five for the draw here plus three twenty Ah, can

590
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 4: Chelsea just name it? Feels like, I mean, can Chelsea

591
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 4: ever just name it? I guess it's the real quick Yeah.

592
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, well then you score the goals is another question.

593
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly.

594
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 2: Well there poor finisher is gone now and.

595
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 4: That's true too. Three three wins from four for Chelsea,

596
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,760
Speaker 4: I believe. But you look at the schedule that they

597
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 4: they it's uh win at Sheffield lost the Walls, win

598
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 4: against Pallas and when it gets looted town so still

599
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:06,720
Speaker 4: but in that same conversation as falling balloons in that

600
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 4: in that group, right, so I don't think Chelsea's a

601
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 4: bad part lay piece. Maybe here, if you're gonna play

602
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:18,480
Speaker 4: the money line or Anthony, you seem tempted by laying

603
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 4: the goal.

604
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm tempted by Chelsea on the over. I think

605
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 3: that they're both a little undervalued. I mean, what happened?

606
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 3: Why is Chelsea bad defensively? That's a really interesting question

607
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 3: that I can't really have a good answer for. Like

608
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 3: you look into the numbers and it doesn't make a

609
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 3: ton of sense. I mean they press a ton right,

610
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 3: so they are relatively aggressive and trying to win the

611
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 3: ball back number. They're up there in the high turnovers

612
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 3: pass per defensive action. They're defensive midfielders. So Cai, Sato

613
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 3: and and Fernandez have not been great in terms of

614
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 3: ball winning. Like you look at their tackles per ninety

615
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 3: interceptions are down. Gallagher's been really good. Now they have

616
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 3: an interesting conundrum though, like bj mentioned it, like Jackson's out,

617
00:30:57,640 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 3: so what do they do a striker? They could play

618
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 3: in Kunco there, They could play Palmer there, which what

619
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 3: they did in the Cup. Then, like what do they

620
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 3: do with Gallagher?

621
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:07,719
Speaker 4: Right?

622
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 3: If they play Palmer off the right, then they could

623
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 3: put Sterling in there, but Sterling hasn't been great. Like

624
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 3: there's so many moving parts that I don't really know

625
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 3: what the cohesive look is and that's the only thing

626
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 3: that scares me here. But I do think Chelsea's a

627
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 3: little cheap. Like we talked about this Fulham team a

628
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 3: bunch like Villa closed minus one seventy at home against Fulham.

629
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 3: I think Chelsea's better than Villa. Tottenham closed minus two hundred.

630
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 3: I would rate Chelsea better than Spurs right now. I

631
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 3: know that's crazy. And Brighton closed right around minus one

632
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 3: to eighty against Fulham. I think those teams are all

633
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 3: you know, no worse or better, no, no better than

634
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:46,160
Speaker 3: Chelsea anyway, So why is Chelsea only minus one sixty five?

635
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 3: I think it's a little cheap. But again, like I

636
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 3: hate this team because they just don't make sense with

637
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 3: regards to numbers and XG and and their defense is alarming.

638
00:31:55,120 --> 00:32:00,120
Speaker 3: It's concerningly bad. But ultimately, like with Palmer and kankuf It,

639
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 3: I think there's enough goals in this team to make

640
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 3: it work. So I lean towards Chelsea here clearly, and

641
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 3: at Chelsea as well. So Chelsea money line or minus

642
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 3: one is fine.

643
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 2: So here's what I think is wrong with Chelsea.

644
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 1: And I've been reading a lot of tactic with people

645
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 1: that follow Chelsea to try to get a better inkling

646
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 1: of what's going on. And essentially what is happening is

647
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 1: Chelsea has kind of reverted back to this three one

648
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:31,480
Speaker 1: six build up and they're playing Enzo as a high

649
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:35,640
Speaker 1: like number ten to aid that attack. He's not that

650
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 1: he's an tremendous ball winner, and he's a great number six.

651
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 1: He's a great he's a decent creator. But the reality

652
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 1: is that when you're playing him high, you're basically just

653
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 1: leaving Caceto as your only option to stop anybody who

654
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 1: wants play through the middle of the pitch. And like

655
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 1: you said, Anthony, he hasn't been that great this season,

656
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 1: so teams have been able to get at Chelsea transitionally.

657
00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 1: And then when you look at their back line, they're

658
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 1: playing Pole well as a left back. That's not his

659
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,720
Speaker 1: natural position. He's a center back by trade. He's was

660
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 1: very good at Brighton and that left center back position,

661
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 1: and that has also left them with somebody who's been

662
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 1: getting beats down the right side of the pitch. So

663
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 1: I agree with you if anything, I'd play the over

664
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,719
Speaker 1: here Chelsea again, they ride named the rext g here,

665
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 1: but question is can they finished? So for me, over anything,

666
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 1: I think there's just too many I can't he said,

667
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 1: too many moving parts, too many things tact really just

668
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 1: wrong with Chelsea right now, despite the really really good

669
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 1: expected goldf frenchials.

670
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 4: So for me, all right, let's do a quick jaunt

671
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 4: around the rest of Europe in action here Bundesliga first YouTube,

672
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 4: both like Ausburg Houseburg and Berg and I'll let I'll

673
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 4: see it up with you first BJ.

674
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, what could go wrong?

675
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 1: Fading Levercuse and they haven't lost yet this season, but

676
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 1: they're gonna be out a couple of key players to

677
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:59,920
Speaker 1: their center backs. Tep Sooba and Casno are both off

678
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 1: to the afric Coup of Nations, but most importantly, Victor

679
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 1: Bonifas is out until April and that is a massive

680
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 1: loss for Leverkusen.

681
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 2: Who U has.

682
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 1: He's put up a one point one xtually plus XA

683
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 1: for ninety minutes.

684
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:16,800
Speaker 2: His replacements can be my guy.

685
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 1: Patrick Schick, but he hasn't played very much this season,

686
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 1: so a much different striker for the Leverkust THEY'RENNA facing

687
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 1: on an Augsburg team that is very likes to play

688
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:29,400
Speaker 1: a low block. But the thing about augsburd you know,

689
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:32,839
Speaker 1: I've fitted them a lot over the last few years,

690
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 1: and because they're expected old, the French was always near.

691
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 2: The bottom of the Bundesliga.

692
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 1: But this season they've just been like an average Bundesliga team.

693
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:42,840
Speaker 1: Like they're minus point twenty five xt differential for ninety minutes.

694
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 1: They're really good on set pieces, which is like the

695
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 1: one weakness that Leverfeuson has defensively and lever Cousen they've

696
00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:52,239
Speaker 1: just been drafted to old performing all season all thirty

697
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:56,320
Speaker 1: two actual walle deferential plus eighteen expected. So with Leverkusen

698
00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 1: not having a couple of their key players and there's

699
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 1: a good spot to fade them and take Roxburgh for

700
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 1: like them plus one at money.

701
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I mean Leverkusen comes out, they take this,

702
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:06,800
Speaker 3: they take the entire league by storm.

703
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 4: Right.

704
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:11,280
Speaker 3: They started the year on this unreal run against the spread.

705
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:13,759
Speaker 3: They were eight to zero to start the year, right,

706
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 3: And eventually the market always catches up to teams and

707
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:18,719
Speaker 3: I think you're starting to see it now and I

708
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 3: know they just smoked an tracked and booke them right

709
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:23,799
Speaker 3: before the break. But you saw them, you know, drop

710
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,360
Speaker 3: points to Stuttgart as a as a road favorite. You

711
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,880
Speaker 3: saw them drop points to Dortmund as a home favorite.

712
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 3: You know, a couple of dice. He wins against Hoffenheim

713
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 3: and Freiberg where they weren't really the better team and

714
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,920
Speaker 3: failed to cover inflated spreads. And I kind of think

715
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 3: that's what we have here. You mentioned the injuries and

716
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 3: the daft coon situation. Okay, well, let me read off

717
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:47,719
Speaker 3: some of this insane shot finishing numbers they've had this year.

718
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:51,399
Speaker 3: Alex Germaldo perfectly fine left back, gets into the box,

719
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 3: gets to the end of the penalty area a decent amount.

720
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:56,840
Speaker 3: He has seven goals and five assists this year. His

721
00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 3: x G plus x A is five, so he's put

722
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:03,560
Speaker 3: up twelve twelve goal contributions from like five expected. And

723
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:05,760
Speaker 3: then you just look across the board. Every single player

724
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,160
Speaker 3: is having this unreal sun run. You know, even shit

725
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:09,880
Speaker 3: you mentioned he's barely played this year. He's played one

726
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 3: and a half matches. He has three goals on one

727
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 3: point five XG. You look at virtu as over performed

728
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 3: Jonas Hoffman, who was like a very average finisher at

729
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 3: Godbach and now is having this unreal run with ten

730
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 3: goal contributions from four point seven expected contributions. Like everybody

731
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 3: on the team has had this unreal first half. Credit

732
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 3: to them. Now they get this three weeks off and

733
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,560
Speaker 3: they're coming back, and I think that there's just clear

734
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 3: overvaluing of this team in the market against like you said,

735
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:41,239
Speaker 3: an Osburg team that has played considerably better. They can

736
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:43,759
Speaker 3: be effective on transition and on set pieces. That's where

737
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 3: Leverkusen still has some flaws defensively. So yeah, I agree,

738
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:51,360
Speaker 3: it's not pretty betting against this the Leverkusen team. You know,

739
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 3: they're twelve and four against the spread in the Bundesliga

740
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 3: against the Asian handicap line, so good luck. But like

741
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 3: I'm happy to do it.

742
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:05,560
Speaker 4: Right Syria, bj're allaying it with Napoli.

743
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, so obviously Victor Oshman's off to Afcon as well

744
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:12,760
Speaker 1: as in Giza. But I think the market is downgraded

745
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:15,879
Speaker 1: Napoli a little bit too much just because those guys

746
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 1: have gone. If you look at what Osaman has done

747
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 1: this season in Napolis, he's only a put around one

748
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:23,840
Speaker 1: point six xtal for ninety minutes so it's not like

749
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 1: he's putting up the elite, elite numbers that we saw,

750
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 1: you know, over the last two seasons. Bulada is hurt

751
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:33,400
Speaker 1: for Salernitana and he's also on the Senegal roster, so

752
00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 1: he's not going to play in this match. Kulibali is

753
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:39,720
Speaker 1: one of their main central midfielders. It's also off to Afcon.

754
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 1: So those are two key players gone right now for Salernitana.

755
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:47,719
Speaker 1: And the reality is is that the Salary town of team,

756
00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 1: they're going to get relegated. Finally. They're by far the

757
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 1: worst team in the in Syria run over a minus

758
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 1: one actually differential per ninety minutes. And the really worrying

759
00:37:56,800 --> 00:37:58,239
Speaker 1: thing here is I don't know how they're going to

760
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 1: play out in Napoli's press. Napolei's number one in Syria

761
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 1: and pass sublection and I turnovers. Now that they don't

762
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:08,839
Speaker 1: have Da available, they don't have an outlet to play

763
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:11,320
Speaker 1: very very direct, So they're just gonna get smothered inside

764
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 1: their own final third and not just hope and pray

765
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 1: to God from their whole block that they can keep

766
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 1: them out. But you know, Napole's gone on a really

767
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 1: poor finishing run as late last six three A matches,

768
00:38:23,239 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 1: they've only scored two goals despite creating seven point three

769
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 1: expected and they're second in Syria and Nontelly expected goals

770
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:34,239
Speaker 1: sou And one last thing, they played Salary Town earlier

771
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:37,440
Speaker 1: this season at salerny Ton. They beat them to nothing

772
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 1: without Oshman, who was injured at the time. So Napoli

773
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 1: minus one and a half of even money is way

774
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:44,759
Speaker 1: too short for me against the worst team in Syria.

775
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:47,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, I kinda think Napole is a weird case because

776
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 3: they have been downgraded, and I wonder if the market

777
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 3: is just waiting these Missari results because they've been objectively

778
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 3: worse since he came in.

779
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:55,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's one thing.

780
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 3: And that's the thing that's a little scary for me

781
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 3: laying it here. I actually was going to take sourny

782
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:01,960
Speaker 3: Ton and but I decided to the number was not

783
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 3: quite there. No, it's well, the last time I had

784
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 3: that conversation. I love them against Milan at home because

785
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 3: like even the worst team in the league that we

786
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 3: know stinks and that like BJ and I, you know,

787
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:13,400
Speaker 3: we have the relegation ticket. We talked about them in

788
00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 3: the preseason. They're still going to cover sometimes and they

789
00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:17,839
Speaker 3: were at home against Milan and I was like, ah,

790
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 3: like this Milan fraud at it again and uh and

791
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 3: of course I didn't bet it and they drew. But

792
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:27,440
Speaker 3: you know, this Napoli team doesn't look right and you

793
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:29,440
Speaker 3: got you know, all the vibes have been off too,

794
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:31,719
Speaker 3: and it's like Osa men with the whole like like

795
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:34,399
Speaker 3: the Napoli Twitter account was just like posting racist stuff

796
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,840
Speaker 3: and then now you have cavar A Donna's agent, cavar

797
00:39:37,880 --> 00:39:41,400
Speaker 3: Donna's agent calling out Osaman, like all of this crazy

798
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:42,360
Speaker 3: stuff is happening.

799
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 2: Crazy it was.

800
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 3: It was, yeah, crazy, all this shit that's been happening

801
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:49,399
Speaker 3: in Napoli this year. But yeah, they're definitely worse from

802
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:51,279
Speaker 3: uh since Missouri came in. That's the only thing that

803
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 3: scares me a little bit, is like, well that's real signal.

804
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 3: Then they're just not that.

805
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:57,879
Speaker 4: Good, all right? Anything else here in Syria.

806
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 3: Roma's intriguing against Milan. Both teams played in the midweek.

807
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 3: Milan and Roma both went out of the Copa Italia.

808
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 3: Like Roma's attack was completely lifeless against Lazio in a

809
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:11,320
Speaker 3: big Darby Cup match, Like that's kind of just like

810
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:13,400
Speaker 3: classic Roma. They just like don't what we show up,

811
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 3: but from a numbers perspective, I think Rome is still

812
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:18,479
Speaker 3: the better team, so you could take them. I also

813
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 3: think Fiorentina is pretty wildly overrated, like their box numbers

814
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 3: have fallen off considerably this year with you know how

815
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 3: their team has changed. Losing Amrobot I think has hurt

816
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:30,880
Speaker 3: their midfield and they're just like a very bang average

817
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 3: serial team that gets priced better than that. So I

818
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:35,839
Speaker 3: lean them. I like Actually I like Udernes against them

819
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 3: in that matchup as well. So those are two dogs

820
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 3: that I'm looking at. Roma, Udernes.

821
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:44,720
Speaker 4: Okay, BJ you're on your own here in La Liga

822
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:46,080
Speaker 4: and Legal.

823
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, so just know the Sevilla Fai Sabias bring in

824
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,880
Speaker 1: a couple of guys during the Transferreadeva won't play in

825
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 1: this match, so be on the lookout for them. Maybe

826
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:56,759
Speaker 1: improving a little bit, but it's the same Savilla team

827
00:40:56,840 --> 00:40:59,919
Speaker 1: that's bad in transition defense. They got dominated by built

828
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:03,840
Speaker 1: Out in their last match. But they're taking on Alabas,

829
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 1: who is one of the more underrated teams in the

830
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:08,360
Speaker 1: bottom half the table, and Lalago does have a positive

831
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:11,399
Speaker 1: expecting Gold to French on the season. Good transitional team,

832
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:15,440
Speaker 1: good low block defense, so I only projected to be

833
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:17,760
Speaker 1: a plus one twenty. They're sitting around minus twenty fifteen,

834
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:21,720
Speaker 1: so decent price on alladays. And then PSG against Lonz

835
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 1: and Leon probably the best match of the weekend there.

836
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 1: Lons just really isn't that good this season. They only

837
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:32,279
Speaker 1: have about a plus two expected gold frames that they're

838
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:36,439
Speaker 1: over performing both offensively and defensively. Defensively, it just comes

839
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:38,400
Speaker 1: down to the fact that Bryce Samba, their keeper, has

840
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:40,239
Speaker 1: just been standing on his head over and over and

841
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 1: over again. But PSG is considerably better than they have

842
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:47,719
Speaker 1: been in years past, and their ability to cons their

843
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 1: ability to dominate possession, and their ability to progress the

844
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:53,520
Speaker 1: ball of the pitch has gotten much much better against

845
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:57,760
Speaker 1: some rique so I trust their ability here. With basically

846
00:41:57,800 --> 00:41:59,719
Speaker 1: everybody available it Kimmy is the only one that's going

847
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:03,920
Speaker 1: to do even for Afton, while for lines that's central

848
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:06,600
Speaker 1: midfield where Semti is off to af Coon as well.

849
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:09,440
Speaker 1: So that leaves Gape and whole against a pretty full

850
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 1: strength PSG team who beat them three to one earlier

851
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 1: this season and really controlling so PSG minus one five

852
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 1: and elevates plus a half minus one ten.

853
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 4: Okay, here we go. If we had a spotlight, if

854
00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 4: we had a stage with lighting, we'd dim the lighting,

855
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:31,640
Speaker 4: make it nice and dark around Anthony and myself, and

856
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:35,880
Speaker 4: a spotlight would just come down on Iowa's foremost Africa

857
00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:38,360
Speaker 4: Cup Nations handicap or BJ Cunningham.

858
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:41,279
Speaker 1: This is I can't tell you how much I love

859
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 1: Afton Michael. It's just a it's a really really fun tournament.

860
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 1: So this tournament's going to be very very interesting. If

861
00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 1: you remember the last tournament, the favorite Senegal one. Right

862
00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:54,840
Speaker 1: now Morocco is the favorite after obviously going to the

863
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:58,360
Speaker 1: semi finals of the World Cup. But what makes this

864
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 1: tournament amazing is the fact that there have just been

865
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:04,600
Speaker 1: so many different winners over the years. We've had a

866
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 1: crazy run from Zambia, who was forty to one pre tournament,

867
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 1: you know, Burkhino Fasal has made it to the final

868
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:14,200
Speaker 1: at fifty to one. It's just a really, really fun tournament.

869
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 1: So I wrote up an entire, very long preview of

870
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 1: the Africa comp Nations that you can read on the

871
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:23,279
Speaker 1: actionework dot com. It's also pinned at the top of

872
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 1: my Twitter right now. But the gist of it is

873
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:28,279
Speaker 1: this So the a couple future bets that I like.

874
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 1: Number one is Nigeria at eleven to one. Really really

875
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 1: good attack, so much talent. Obviously, they have the best

876
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:37,759
Speaker 1: player in this tournament in Oceanman. Well, I guess you'd

877
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 1: are maybe Solas the best player, but one of the

878
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:43,919
Speaker 1: best players Osman Yanacho. Lookman, they have so much talent

879
00:43:43,960 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 1: in that attack. They have Premier League experienced in their

880
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:51,320
Speaker 1: midfield with alex Owolbe Joe Ribo, and their defense is

881
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:53,319
Speaker 1: kind of questionable. So they're sitting at eleven to one.

882
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 1: The reality is is that the results really haven't been

883
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:56,439
Speaker 1: that great.

884
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 2: They drew back to back.

885
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:01,360
Speaker 1: A World To qualifying matches against Simba and Lesotho, So

886
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 1: people are really questioning Nigeria of like how good actually

887
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 1: are they what? Talent wise, they're really good and the

888
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:10,440
Speaker 1: underlying process numbers have been great as well, around a

889
00:44:10,480 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 1: plus one point two XC differential for ninety minutes over

890
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 1: the last two years in Africa. That's second best behind

891
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 1: the tournament. David Rocco.

892
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:19,440
Speaker 2: So, I don't think.

893
00:44:19,440 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 1: Nigeria should be priced at a below you know, Cameroon

894
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 1: in Egypt. They should be up there with Senegal and

895
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:27,480
Speaker 1: Morocco here and the other one future that I like,

896
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:30,279
Speaker 1: I'll just be quick here. Malli twenty five to one,

897
00:44:30,360 --> 00:44:33,360
Speaker 1: maybe the best midfield in the entire tournament with Basuma

898
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 1: and Tamara who plays for Monaco. They can overrun a

899
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 1: lot of teams and I really like them in their

900
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:40,759
Speaker 1: group against Tunisia. If you want to bet one of

901
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:42,239
Speaker 1: these teams in kind of the middle tier, they have

902
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:44,320
Speaker 1: to have something that can drive them through the tournament,

903
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:46,920
Speaker 1: and having their midfield really can they A couple of

904
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:50,400
Speaker 1: young strikers that play at Salzburg, so a very underrated

905
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:52,839
Speaker 1: Malli team that's third best expected gold differential and Afric

906
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 1: COVID the last two years. Those are the two futures

907
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:58,320
Speaker 1: that I've gone with. And Real Quick too Golden Boots

908
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:04,279
Speaker 1: see forty to one Kudu's forty to one. Kind of

909
00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 1: crazy prices for two of the hottest strikers on the

910
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:10,120
Speaker 1: planet right now, and then a couple of matches that

911
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:12,760
Speaker 1: and if you're somebody who wants to follow along throughout

912
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 1: this tournament, I will have picks every single day on

913
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:21,239
Speaker 1: my Twitter and my daily unexpected goals will serve as

914
00:45:21,280 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 1: the rite up for that. So if you want to

915
00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 1: follow along throughout this entire tournament. You can just follow

916
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:28,839
Speaker 1: me on Twitter for individual match plays. But a couple

917
00:45:28,880 --> 00:45:31,040
Speaker 1: that I'm targeting real quick and I'll just mention them

918
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:35,840
Speaker 1: Molly plus one ten in their first match against South Africa,

919
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:41,520
Speaker 1: Guinea in their second match against of the group stage

920
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:47,400
Speaker 1: against Gambia plus one and then Zambia drawn up at

921
00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 1: plus one ten in their first match against the Democratic

922
00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:52,280
Speaker 1: Republic of Congo.

923
00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:55,399
Speaker 2: So that's what I have for f com. Asian Cup

924
00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 2: is kind of weird.

925
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:58,040
Speaker 1: I wrote a fall Asian Crop preview that you can

926
00:45:58,080 --> 00:46:00,120
Speaker 1: read on the action work dot com as well. It's

927
00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:02,640
Speaker 1: very top heavy with Japan in South Korea, so if

928
00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 1: you want more stuff on the Asian Cup, you can

929
00:46:04,640 --> 00:46:05,960
Speaker 1: just read it on the actionework dot com.

930
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 4: That's beautiful, Thank you, uh BJ Well, I'll be following along.

931
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 4: Might Elite is quite a tournament.

932
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:19,399
Speaker 3: It's a slow time right. European calendar takes a little

933
00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:22,759
Speaker 3: bit of a pause here. We got like random EFL Cups,

934
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 3: Spanish Super Cup finals this weekend. Real Madrid beat at Letty.

935
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:28,719
Speaker 3: I'm expecting it to be Real Barsa probably gonna be

936
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:31,920
Speaker 3: betting Barcelona, just like expecting Real to be about a

937
00:46:32,040 --> 00:46:34,719
Speaker 3: quarter goal favorite on a neutral. Don't agree with that.

938
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 3: I think Barsa is just as good, So probably gonna

939
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:40,080
Speaker 3: be betting Barsa assuming they get past Osasuna on Thursday.

940
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:43,200
Speaker 3: But yeah, I'm locked in for Afcon, gonna be tailing BJ.

941
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:45,239
Speaker 3: You're gonna have to do some own work to find

942
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 3: out what my feature is going to be. I'll put

943
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:49,760
Speaker 3: in our discord and probably tweet it. But tournament starts

944
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:50,320
Speaker 3: what three.

945
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 1: Days Saturday, I've Coast and getting to sal first match,

946
00:46:56,920 --> 00:47:00,200
Speaker 1: and then the Asian Cup starts Friday and Katar Star

947
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:01,400
Speaker 1: is playing Lebanon.

948
00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:05,440
Speaker 4: Okay, let's really quickly just give out a best bet

949
00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:07,399
Speaker 4: for the Premier League. There's only five matches, so there's

950
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 4: gonna be a little bit of doubling up here. BJ

951
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:13,960
Speaker 4: and I we both like Everton. I'll let you take

952
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:17,760
Speaker 4: that one, but I'll just just for to be different.

953
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:20,080
Speaker 4: I'm gonna say looton Town. I just don't believe in

954
00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:21,600
Speaker 4: this Burnley team at all, and I think that the

955
00:47:21,719 --> 00:47:24,359
Speaker 4: prices is high enough to try to take them out

956
00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 4: and beat them even at home. So I'll take the hatters,

957
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:30,080
Speaker 4: you know, relegation six pointer? All right? BJ?

958
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:32,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, Everton Drono Bet plus one oh seven at home

959
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 1: against aston Villa.

960
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 2: Really get match up because Everton.

961
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 1: Does everything that aston Villa allows you to do. Aston

962
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 1: Villa wants to condense the space in the middle of

963
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:43,680
Speaker 1: the pitch, they want to play a high line. Well,

964
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:45,839
Speaker 1: everything's just gonna play direct balls over the top. They're

965
00:47:45,840 --> 00:47:48,280
Speaker 1: gonna play balls out wide to try to send in crosses,

966
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 1: which is gonna work really well against this aston Villa team.

967
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:53,600
Speaker 1: Everton also scored eleven goals on the set pieces. That's

968
00:47:53,640 --> 00:47:55,879
Speaker 1: type of the most in the Premier League. Aston Villa

969
00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:58,360
Speaker 1: dead last next year for set piece and these are

970
00:47:58,400 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 1: teams have played twice ourt of the season. Aston Villa

971
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 1: beat them pretty badly early on, but they played in

972
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:05,160
Speaker 1: the NFL Cup. Everton won the match to one, and

973
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:07,920
Speaker 1: what happened in that match is Everton scored two goals

974
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:11,320
Speaker 1: off of high turnovers, which is a big, big advantage

975
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 1: for them here because Everton is really really good out

976
00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:15,839
Speaker 1: of possession with their ability to not only press teams

977
00:48:15,920 --> 00:48:19,120
Speaker 1: high and cause problems, which also play good defensive low blocks.

978
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:21,080
Speaker 1: So if they want to come out and press aston Villa,

979
00:48:21,120 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 1: I think they can really disrupt their build up play here.

980
00:48:23,040 --> 00:48:25,720
Speaker 1: I mean Everton has forced the second most high turnovers

981
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:27,680
Speaker 1: in the Premier League. So a good spot here for

982
00:48:27,760 --> 00:48:29,920
Speaker 1: Everton at home was a plus six expected gold to

983
00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:31,839
Speaker 1: French how good as and Park. But against Aston Villa,

984
00:48:32,080 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 1: who's had some shaky road for him, minus one point

985
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:36,279
Speaker 1: six to expected GOLDI French all overall the season. So

986
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 1: I like Everton jono bad at plus one oht seven.

987
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:41,840
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with Chelsea minus one at home against Fulham.

988
00:48:42,520 --> 00:48:45,760
Speaker 3: I just really think that this Chelsea team is sorting

989
00:48:45,840 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 3: through what their best attack is. But when Palmer and

990
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:50,040
Speaker 3: Kunku are out there, they have a lot of shots,

991
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:52,880
Speaker 3: a lot of shot creation for others and even though

992
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:55,880
Speaker 3: they're defensively still a little bit shaky. I think this

993
00:48:56,000 --> 00:48:57,680
Speaker 3: price is shorter than it should be because of their

994
00:48:57,719 --> 00:49:00,080
Speaker 3: recent form, their bumps in the road they've had, and

995
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:01,480
Speaker 3: that they're undervalued to win this match.

996
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:04,960
Speaker 4: And of course we want to be the wonderful podcast

997
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:08,920
Speaker 4: without giving out a couple of Australian open futures. Anthony

998
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:11,120
Speaker 4: and I are kind of in agreement that if you're

999
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 4: going to play the top of the board, it'd be

1000
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 4: Onix Cinner. I believe I he's you could get him

1001
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:18,759
Speaker 4: his high at seven to one, eight to one.

1002
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:20,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's going to be a center for me. I

1003
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:22,400
Speaker 3: think I don't trust al Karaz and I'm not going

1004
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:24,280
Speaker 3: to beat Djokovic, so yeah.

1005
00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 4: And I think Djokovic is his lack of kind of

1006
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:29,839
Speaker 4: fitness towards the end of last year and the fact

1007
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:32,719
Speaker 4: that he played so much make some that number a

1008
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:36,360
Speaker 4: little tricky. I'm a, of course going to make my

1009
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:40,680
Speaker 4: annual or quad dry and quad annual, would you say

1010
00:49:40,719 --> 00:49:45,520
Speaker 4: for four four times a year donation on Andre rubleav

1011
00:49:45,880 --> 00:49:48,880
Speaker 4: of course he will go to zero to ten and

1012
00:49:49,080 --> 00:49:52,920
Speaker 4: in Grand Slam quarterfinals as well, so rube Lev Ciner.

1013
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:55,560
Speaker 4: I think we could also be talking about a little

1014
00:49:55,719 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 4: Daniel Medvedev action as well. So on that note, hopefully

1015
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:04,760
Speaker 4: you cash some Afcon, you catch some Australian Open futures,

1016
00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:11,000
Speaker 4: you could pit Asia, Africa, Australia, Europe all in one podcast,

1017
00:50:11,160 --> 00:50:12,719
Speaker 4: not many peopure. We're going to be able to do

1018
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 4: that in one hour, but Anthony, BJ and BJ and

1019
00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:20,240
Speaker 4: myself okay, and we will until we see you again.

1020
00:50:20,840 --> 00:50:22,160
Speaker 4: Thank you for listening to Wonder Goal. Thank you to

1021
00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:24,359
Speaker 4: our sponsor BET three six. I'm on vacation next week,

1022
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:27,279
Speaker 4: so we'll just be those two gentlemen over there without me.

1023
00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:30,880
Speaker 4: Best of luck with all your bets in Africa, in Europe,

1024
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:32,239
Speaker 4: in Australia and in Asia.

1025
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:44,400
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1026
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:47,239
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1027
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:50,360
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler