1 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:09,399 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. I'm Stephen Carroll, and 2 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:11,880 Speaker 1: this is Here's Why, where we take one news story 3 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:14,120 Speaker 1: and explain it in just a few minutes with our 4 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:15,760 Speaker 1: experts here at Bloomberg. 5 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 2: The Doomsday clock is a tool for communicating how close 6 00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 2: we are to destroying the world with technologies of our 7 00:00:25,720 --> 00:00:26,240 Speaker 2: own making. 8 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 1: This is the closest the world has ever. 9 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:29,960 Speaker 2: Been to midnight. 10 00:00:30,560 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 1: The New Start Treaty, we're talking about nuclear arms here, 11 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 1: and a lot of work would need to go into 12 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 1: that to extend that treaty or have a new one. 13 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:41,200 Speaker 2: You could have a major war between Russia and NATO, 14 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 2: which of course includes the United States, so the two 15 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 2: nuclear superpaths, which would be potentially very dangerous. 16 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:50,760 Speaker 3: We have more nuclear weapons than anybody if we don't 17 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 3: do testing, and we've haulted in years and many years ago, 18 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 3: but with others doing testing, I think it's appropriate that 19 00:00:58,400 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 3: we do also. 20 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:04,040 Speaker 1: The world is stumbling into a new era for nuclear weapons. 21 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:07,559 Speaker 1: For fifteen years, the New Start Treaty between the United 22 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 1: States and Russia placed limits on warheads and the systems 23 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:15,199 Speaker 1: that deploy them. Crucially, it also included checks that offered 24 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 1: transparency about each country's nuclear arsenals, but the treaty has lapsed, 25 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:23,000 Speaker 1: and although President Trump says he wants a new agreement 26 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 1: to replace it, for now, controls on these deadly weapons 27 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 1: are in unknown territory. Here's why nuclear brinkmanship is back. 28 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: Our Global Defense editor Jerry Doyle joins US Now for more. 29 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:42,480 Speaker 1: How effective has the New Start Treaty been in limiting 30 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 1: Russia and America's stock of nuclear weapons? 31 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 4: It's been very effective. Both countries have traditionally since the 32 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 4: treaty was enforced, done a good job of notifying the 33 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 4: other about how many of its weapons were deployed, what 34 00:01:56,480 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 4: sort of systems they were deployed on, and the end 35 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 4: result was that both countries had about one six hundred 36 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 4: and seventy deployed nuclear warheads in their arsenal and in fact, 37 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,920 Speaker 4: the US State Department in twenty twenty five assessed that 38 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:15,160 Speaker 4: even after Russia had threatened to abandon the treaty after 39 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:19,520 Speaker 4: the US supported Ukraine amid Russia's invasion of that country 40 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 4: in twenty twenty two, even after that happened, Russia had 41 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 4: remained in compliance of the treaty all the way through 42 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 4: last year. So the treaty and the terms in it 43 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 4: had been completely or nearly completely effective in limiting both 44 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 4: sides and how many nuclear weapons were actually able to 45 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 4: be used. 46 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 1: So what happens now the treaty has lapsed? Should we 47 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 1: expect Russia and the United States to start building their arsenals. 48 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 4: It's not so much a matter of building new weapons, 49 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 4: per se. I don't think we're going to see a 50 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:55,839 Speaker 4: lot of new missile designs or new delivery systems come online. 51 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:59,119 Speaker 4: What will almost certainly happen is both countries will take 52 00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 4: the relatively easy step of taking the warheads that have 53 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 4: been sitting in their stockpile and adding them to weapons 54 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 4: that can handle more than one warhead but which have 55 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 4: been limited by treaty to carrying only one. For instance, 56 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 4: the US minute Man three intercontinental ballistic missile can carry 57 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 4: up to three warheads on each missile, but it has 58 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:22,960 Speaker 4: been limited to one. So now the easy thing the 59 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 4: US can do is just add two more warheads to 60 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 4: that and effectively deploy more without actually creating more weapons. 61 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 4: Russia is in a similar position. It's s S eighteen 62 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:38,839 Speaker 4: intercontinental ballistic missile can carry as many as ten warheads. 63 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 4: Intelligence has suggested, so they can take some of those 64 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 4: stockpiled weapons and put them on missiles. Now, the main 65 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 4: sort of difference is that Russia does not have as 66 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 4: many delivery systems as the US, so it will after 67 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 4: the treaty is fully abandoned. They're able to upload, say, 68 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 4: roughly one and a half time they're current deployed warheads, 69 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:05,640 Speaker 4: whereas the US will be able to upload almost twice 70 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:08,080 Speaker 4: as many. So it should end up being something in 71 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 4: the neighborhood of as many as three thousand, seven hundred 72 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:16,480 Speaker 4: and fifty deployed warheads for the US and about two thousand, 73 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:20,279 Speaker 4: six hundred deployed warheads for Russia. Still a tremendous amount 74 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 4: of nuclear destructive power. 75 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:24,400 Speaker 1: Are we in a complete legal vacuum? 76 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:24,719 Speaker 3: Now? 77 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 1: Do any other treaties that cover nuclear weapons provide any 78 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 1: other limits that might add I suppose more guardrails in 79 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 1: this area. 80 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 4: At this point. 81 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:34,279 Speaker 3: No. 82 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 4: The only sort of major nuclear treaty that's still in 83 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 4: force is the Non Proliferation Treaty, which simply prevents or 84 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 4: aims to prevent nuclear powers countries that currently have access 85 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 4: to nuclear materials, nuclear weapon designs, nuclear delivery systems from 86 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 4: selling them or otherwise distributing them to the rest of 87 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 4: the world. But in terms of building new weapons and 88 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 4: adding new warheads to them, no, there's nothing to stop 89 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:04,040 Speaker 4: that from growing as much as it wants to. 90 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 1: What about the countries that weren't covered by new start, 91 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 1: like China and India, how are they likely to react 92 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:10,840 Speaker 1: to this? 93 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 4: Well? I think you could see a sort of a 94 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 4: round of arms racing. As China especially started building its 95 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 4: nuclear arsenal up in recent years because it did not 96 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 4: think it had enough weapons to deter a major nuclear 97 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 4: power like the United States or like Russia from an attack. 98 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 4: If they see that those powers now have even more 99 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 4: warhead deployed, they will be incentivilized to deploy and create 100 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:41,719 Speaker 4: more warheads of their own. And then India, of course, 101 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 4: which is a major geopolitical rival of China, will see 102 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 4: that build up and feel like they need to build 103 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:50,159 Speaker 4: up their arsenal as well. And then next door to 104 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 4: India's Pakistan, they will see India and China building up 105 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 4: their arsenals and feel like perhaps they need more warheads 106 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:01,799 Speaker 4: as well. And then you have this overall geopolitical situation 107 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:06,480 Speaker 4: where the US is sort of at points outright hostile 108 00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 4: to its traditional allies in Europe, and elsewhere in the world, 109 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 4: and that could lead them to feel like they have 110 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:16,039 Speaker 4: to develop a nuclear arsenal of their own too to 111 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,479 Speaker 4: deter any sort of major attack or invasion if they 112 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:23,480 Speaker 4: don't feel like they can rely on the protection or 113 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:26,600 Speaker 4: the support of the US. So I think the demise 114 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 4: of this treaty, the immediate impact will just be that 115 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 4: Russia and the US will immediately deploy more warheads, but 116 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:38,040 Speaker 4: you could certainly see a large arms race spiraling out 117 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 4: of this as a result. 118 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:41,920 Speaker 1: Now the US president says that he wants a new 119 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 1: treaty with Russia, how easy or difficult will that be 120 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:47,159 Speaker 1: to negotiates? 121 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 4: Well, that's hard to say. I mean, if the US 122 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:54,039 Speaker 4: wanted a new treaty with Russia, there was plenty of 123 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 4: time to negotiate one before a new start expired, and 124 00:06:57,440 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 4: of course Trump is the president of the United States. 125 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:03,040 Speaker 4: He could order negotiations to start at any time. I 126 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 4: think the main problem here at this point is going 127 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 4: to be if it is anything more than the US 128 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 4: and Russia, if we want China to be involved, for instance, 129 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 4: that's going to be very very tough sledding. China does 130 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:20,520 Speaker 4: not have anywhere near as many warheads as the US 131 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 4: or Russia, so convincing them to come to the negotiating 132 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 4: table and place limits on a stockpile that is already 133 00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:31,520 Speaker 4: much smaller than their global competitors will be extremely difficult. 134 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 1: Okay, Jerry Doyle, our Global Defense editor, thank you very much. 135 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 1: For more explanations like this from our team of three 136 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:40,640 Speaker 1: thousands journalists and analysts around the world, go to Bloomberg 137 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 1: dot com slash explainers. I'm Stephen Caroll. This is here's why. 138 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 1: I'll be back next week with more. Thanks for listening.