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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting Crows PGA podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris,

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Speaker 1: joined by Beau mcbrair. We have got a signature event

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Speaker 1: on the PGA Tour this week. It's the Arnold Palmer

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Speaker 1: Invitational Bow and I will give you a full betting

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Speaker 1: preview of the Arnold Palmer. We'll also do a quick

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Speaker 1: recap of the Cognizant Classic.

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Speaker 2: We will share our.

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Speaker 1: Early betting cards with you, and then we'll make our

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Speaker 1: one and done picks at the end of the show.

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Speaker 1: Joe Highsmith had one heck of a weekend, winning the

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Speaker 1: Cognizant Classic by two shots. He made the cut on

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Speaker 1: the number on Friday and then proceeded to shoot a

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Speaker 1: pair of sixty fours on Saturday and Sunday. Over his

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Speaker 1: final two rounds, Highsmith had thirteen birdies in eagle and

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Speaker 1: only one bogie. The twenty four year old was simply

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Speaker 1: magnificent in winning his first PGA Tour event. We've had

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Speaker 1: two first time winners in a row back to back.

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Speaker 1: Boe you live bet high Smith at eighteen to one

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Speaker 1: yesterday before his surge took him to the top of

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Speaker 1: the leaderboard. Very nicely done. Hi Smith was the second

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Speaker 1: straight long shot winner, as I just mentioned on Tour

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Speaker 1: on the heels at Brian Campbell's win in Mexico the

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Speaker 1: previous week. But high Smith is a really good young player.

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Speaker 1: Strong off the tee, good with the irons, good around

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Speaker 1: the greens. He played well late last year after the

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Speaker 1: Tour Championship, at a time when a lot of golf

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Speaker 1: fans aren't paying attention. High Smith won by two shots

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Speaker 1: over JJ Spahn and Jacob Bridgeman. Bridgeman also shot a

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Speaker 1: sixty four on Sunday and had the clubhouse lead for

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Speaker 1: a while, but it did seem inevitable that at least

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Speaker 1: one player would overtake him. Jake Knapp opened the Cognizant

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Speaker 1: Classic by shooting a course record fifty nine Thursday at

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Speaker 1: PGA National, Nap held the lead after each of the

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Speaker 1: first three rounds. His waterloo was the eleventh hole on Sunday,

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Speaker 1: apart four with an approach shot over a pond. NAP's

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Speaker 1: approach shot went into the water, but part of his

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Speaker 1: ball was above the surface. He tried to splash it out,

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Speaker 1: failed the first time, moved his ball a few feet

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Speaker 1: the second time, chipped on in five two putted for

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Speaker 1: a calamitous triple bogie and that was the end of

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Speaker 1: Jake Knapp. He made no more birdies the rest of

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Speaker 1: the way after stacking them up over his first three rounds.

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Speaker 1: PG National played surprisingly easy over the first three days

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Speaker 1: before finally showing some teeth on Sunday. The cut line

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Speaker 1: is normally above par in this tournament. This time you

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Speaker 1: needed to be five under par better to play into

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Speaker 1: the weekend. There just wasn't any wind the first few

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Speaker 1: days and the players were able to go in the

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Speaker 1: attack and a course that often requires the pros to

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Speaker 1: play defensively. Bo what did you make of the Cognizant

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Speaker 1: Classic And how are you going to spend your Joe

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Speaker 1: high Smith money?

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Speaker 3: Knowing me, I'll probably blow it on more bets, hopefully

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Speaker 3: to turn it into more money. But thank you, Joe

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Speaker 3: high Smith. I've already mentioned your name a few times

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Speaker 3: on the show this year. I mentioned it a few

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Speaker 3: times on the show last year, very promising young player.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned his iron game. He did make the cut

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Speaker 3: on the number, which was the lowest cut this event

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Speaker 3: has ever seen. Minus five is in saying because when

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Speaker 3: you look at Jake Knapp's scoring, or even Let's look

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Speaker 3: at Shane Lowry's scoring minus fourteen is where he finished

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Speaker 3: up and an almost eighty percent of the year's past

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Speaker 3: where Shane Lowry has met a top five contender in

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Speaker 3: this event. He would have been a top five or

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Speaker 3: even a winner at fourteen under par, and he wasn't

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Speaker 3: even in the top ten this year. A right overseed

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Speaker 3: to make the Bermuda grass look more green this time

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Speaker 3: of year because it is a dormant grass when the

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Speaker 3: weather cools down. It made this golf course super easy,

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Speaker 3: especially with the absence of any win the first three days,

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Speaker 3: and then there was some passing showers on Wednesday that

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Speaker 3: softened the golf course considerably. Thursday, scoring was off the charts.

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Speaker 3: The fifty nine with Jake Knapp was still four strokes

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Speaker 3: better than anybody else but Bridgeman. Let's go back to

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Speaker 3: Bridgeman five under par, making the cut on the number

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Speaker 3: after thirty six holes. Gained eleven strokes on the field

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Speaker 3: over the last two days, including a sparkling perfection sixty

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Speaker 3: four on Sunday, when the scoring average had returned to

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Speaker 3: its previous PGA National standards of around even par. Everybody

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Speaker 3: was kind of hovering around even par on Sunday for

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Speaker 3: their rounds. Except for obviously we had Bridgeman, who shot

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Speaker 3: an early sixty four on Sunday. But even more impressive

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Speaker 3: is Joe Heismith shooting sixty four in the afternoon on

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Speaker 3: Sunday when things were getting a little hard. You could

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Speaker 3: tell the greens were quickening and the breeze was picking up,

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Speaker 3: and he went one under par on the vaunted bear

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Speaker 3: Trap fifteen sixteen seventeen, notoriously has derailed a bunch of

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Speaker 3: title contenders headed to the finish. Jay Knap didn't even

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Speaker 3: make it to the bear Trap before he fell apart

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Speaker 3: with a truly stupid decision line of decision making. I'm

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Speaker 3: surprised as Caddie didn't just haul him fireman style back

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Speaker 3: to the drop area instead of trying to play the

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Speaker 3: ball out of the mud twice. But high Smith gets

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Speaker 3: all the props. I just saw a red hot golfer

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Speaker 3: fifth hole. He was three shots back. He had about

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Speaker 3: eight golfers in front of him on the standings. But

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Speaker 3: I saw that he was playing out of his mind,

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Speaker 3: and I was like, well, what's the what's the fun

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Speaker 3: and saying, oh, Jake Knap's gonna hold on to win

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Speaker 3: this thing because he's going wire to wire or anybody

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Speaker 3: else in that field, I didn't really see anybody impressive,

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Speaker 3: maybe other than the way Nap was playing. And I

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Speaker 3: was like, Joe Hi Smith is playing the best of

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Speaker 3: anybody today, so why not play plus eighteen hundred on

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Speaker 3: Joe Hismith. I've already talked about him this year, and

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Speaker 3: sure enough I went to work and I checked back

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Speaker 3: a few holes later and he had gone five under

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Speaker 3: over the last six holes and had taken the tie

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Speaker 3: for the lead at that point. And then Jake Knapp

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Speaker 3: blew up on eleven and I was in the money

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Speaker 3: and he went one under on the bear trap, which

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Speaker 3: was spectacular. I was so excited to see that guy

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Speaker 3: go into the bear trap and stare it down and

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Speaker 3: go one under par where everybody else was struggling.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, normally you do not see guys make big moves

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Speaker 1: up the board like high Tower and Bridgeman did on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: You can have guys, You can have the field come

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Speaker 1: back to you at PGA National with guys making big

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Speaker 1: triple bogies a la Jake Knapp. But man for someone

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Speaker 1: to climb that rapidly and for those two guys to

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Speaker 1: make the cut on the number. I mean, think about that,

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Speaker 1: like minus five. It took good scores just to get

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Speaker 1: into the weekend.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they were eight shots back after thirty six.

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Speaker 2: Just wild, Just wild.

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Speaker 1: Now we will get to the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented

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Speaker 1: by MasterCard in just a moment.

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Speaker 3: But first download the free Betting Pros app for iOS

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Speaker 3: and Android with sportsbooks Sink automatically track your bets across

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Speaker 3: all major sports books in one spot. Easily monitor your

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Speaker 3: bet performance by sport and bet type, including game picks, props,

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Speaker 3: and parlays. Create custom betting systems to find winning trends

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Speaker 3: and profitable opportunities. Free trial of Betting Pros Premium by

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Speaker 3: downloading the app at Bettingpros dot com slash apps and

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Speaker 3: activating your trial on the upgrade screen.

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Speaker 1: Now, the Cognizant Classic was a nice warm up, but

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Speaker 1: the Florida Swing really gets cooking this week with the

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Speaker 1: Arnold Palmer Invitational. The field for this event is outstanding.

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Speaker 1: There are seventy two qualifiers. The field will be trimmed

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Speaker 1: to fifty players plus ties after two rounds. I think

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Speaker 1: the cut also automatically includes any player within ten shots

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Speaker 1: of the lead. The Arnold Palmer will of course be

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Speaker 1: played at Arney's Club Bayhill in Orlando, Florida. Bayhill is

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Speaker 1: a real butt kicker of a corspo. Joe high Smith

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Speaker 1: nineteen under par last week. No one's getting a nineteen

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Speaker 1: under par this week. It's just not going to happen.

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Speaker 1: I don't care if there isn't a breath of wind.

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Speaker 1: Bayhill's a par seventy two, measuring seven four hundred and

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Speaker 1: sixty six yards. Water comes into play on half the holes.

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Speaker 1: They're bunkers all over the place. Bayhill has some of

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Speaker 1: the thickest, snarliest rough on the PGA tour. Them de

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Speaker 1: greens are big and fast. Windy conditions often prevail at

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Speaker 1: bay Hill, and it looks like that will be the

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Speaker 1: case again this year. They're expecting wins of ten to

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Speaker 1: twenty miles an hour on Thursday, along with cooler than

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Speaker 1: usual temperatures in the upper sixties. It'll be warmer and

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Speaker 1: less breezy on Friday and Saturday, with temperatures in the

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Speaker 1: upper seventies and low eighties and wins in the five

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Speaker 1: to fifteen mile per hour range. But then we get

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Speaker 1: some interesting weather conditions on Sunday. Bow Some rain in

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Speaker 1: the forecast, along with wins of ten to twenty miles

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Speaker 1: an hour could be a bloodbath on Sunday, so good

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Speaker 1: win players could have an edge this week. Long iron

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Speaker 1: play is another key at bay Hill, with players hitting

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Speaker 1: a lot of their approach shots from two hundred yards

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Speaker 1: or more T shots two. Bayhill's shortest part three measures

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Speaker 1: one hundred and ninety nine yards. One is two thirty one,

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Speaker 1: another's two twenty one. The par fives are mostly pretty gettable,

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Speaker 1: so par five scoring should be a key. Scotty Scheffler

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Speaker 1: is the defending champion. Scotty finished fifteen under power last

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Speaker 1: year to win in a runaway. He was five shots

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Speaker 1: clear of runner up Wyndam Clark. Scotti also won here

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two, but the winning score was only

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Speaker 1: five under par that year in some tough conditions. Bow

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Speaker 1: Your Guy Kurt Kitty Yama won here in twenty twenty three,

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Speaker 1: finishing nine under par. He went into the weekend at

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Speaker 1: nine under par, then hung on for Dear Life. Bryce

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Speaker 1: and d Shambeau won here in twenty twenty one at

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Speaker 1: minus eleven, and Tyrol Hatton one here in twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: with a US Open type of winning score four under par.

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Speaker 1: Bow your thoughts on Bayhill.

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Speaker 3: So it's pretty interesting that this was the tournament that

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Speaker 3: really kickstarted my addiction to golf betting because it was

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Speaker 3: that Kitty Yama win in twenty twenty three. That was

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Speaker 3: a two hundred and fifty to one payout that I

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Speaker 3: had because I was just playing a guy who had

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Speaker 3: a good course fit and a relative unknown at that point.

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Speaker 3: He was a rookie on tour that year, and it

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Speaker 3: was an amazing vaulting into I'm probably still still spending

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Speaker 3: that money, So I don't know if I should be

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Speaker 3: spending Jake Nap money or Joe Heismith money yet because

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Speaker 3: Kirk Kidiyama is still paying the bills from two years ago.

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Speaker 3: I think that's a great golf course for challenging the

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Speaker 3: whole bag. It's very challenging if you get out of

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Speaker 3: position here because it is a long golf course with

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Speaker 3: very fast greens, with lots of slope and runoff. There's

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Speaker 3: hazards everywhere. It is quintessential carnage, and you know me,

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Speaker 3: I love carnage. This being a signature event kind of

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Speaker 3: takes away some of that luster where you see some

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Speaker 3: of those deeper shots come back to the field and

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Speaker 3: win a lah Kirk Kidiyama. Being that it is a limited,

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Speaker 3: limited cut event, I don't know that we're going to

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Speaker 3: get the same kind of drama, but it is going

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Speaker 3: to be a stronger field that is going to be

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Speaker 3: fun to bet on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's get to the odds.

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Speaker 1: All odds are a courtesy of DraftKings as of Monday morning.

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Speaker 2: We'll start with the favorites. Defending champ.

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Speaker 1: Scottie Scheffler is a heavy favorite at plus three point thirty.

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Speaker 1: Rory McElroy is plus eight hundred, Xander Schaffley is thirteen one.

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Speaker 1: Ludwig Oberg is sixteen to one, Colin Morikawa twenty to one,

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Speaker 1: Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama are twenty five to one.

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Speaker 1: Patrick Cantlay twenty eight to one, Tommy Fleetwood thirty to one,

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Speaker 1: Sung jm forty to one, and at forty five to

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Speaker 1: one are Will Zalatorus, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Keegan Bradley. Who

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Speaker 1: do you like from among the favorites?

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Speaker 3: Right off the top, I'm looking at my model right now,

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Speaker 3: and one and two are Scotty Scheffler and Rory McElroy.

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Speaker 3: Being that this is a Scotty Scheffler type special course,

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Speaker 3: you'd have to be hard pressed to not bet him

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Speaker 3: at all. I don't know if I'll bet him outright

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Speaker 3: plus three thirty, honestly, but live betting is certainly something

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Speaker 3: I will be interested in this week. I am gonna

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Speaker 3: be betting right off the bat with Rory McElroy at

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Speaker 3: plus eight hundred, another great course fit long iron extraordinaire,

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Speaker 3: and honestly, I'm more surprised that Rory McElroy is fifth

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Speaker 3: in this field and scrambling, which is a huge metric

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Speaker 3: in my weighted model. He's pretty much top ten in

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Speaker 3: every category except for long car threes, where he's not

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Speaker 3: that bad off either. I think that Rory McElroy is

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Speaker 3: the class of this field for at least making money

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Speaker 3: on betting. Scotty Scheffler very well could win the thing

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Speaker 3: and pay off at plus three thirty, but you don't

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Speaker 3: get a lot of meat off that bone. I think

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Speaker 3: I'll start with Rory and go and maybe a little

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Speaker 3: bit of Xanderschoftley at plus fourteen hundred, But Scotty right

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Speaker 3: off the bat betting now it just seems kind of

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Speaker 3: a waste of time.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, plus three thirty against a really stackfield not ideal,

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Speaker 1: although I mean you could make a case for it.

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Speaker 1: When Tiger Woods was at the height of his powers,

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Speaker 1: he dominated at bay Hill, and now Scotty is the

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Speaker 1: big dog on the PGA Tour, and he too has

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Speaker 1: been dominant at Arnie's place. Scheffler's now won two of

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Speaker 1: the last three Arnold Palmers, with a fourth place finish

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Speaker 1: sandwiched in between. Rory obviously likes bay Hill two baw

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Speaker 1: his last eight Arnold Palmers one win, four top five,

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Speaker 1: six top tens. His worst finish over that stretch was

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Speaker 1: twenty first. And so Yet, like the two big favorites

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Speaker 1: have played this course really well, a lot of the

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Speaker 1: other guys not quite as impressive with their track records.

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Speaker 1: Xander Schoffley has finished no better than twenty fourth here

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Speaker 1: in three previous Arnold Palmers. Also hasn't played an event

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Speaker 1: since the Century way back in early January. You wonder

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Speaker 1: if there's gonna be any rust. Oberg did win his

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Speaker 1: last event, the Genesis Invitational, but in two previous trips

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Speaker 1: to Bayhill twenty fourth and twenty fifth. Kalam Morikawa, great

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Speaker 1: ball striker, but he's missed the cut here each of

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Speaker 1: the last two years. Justin Thomas. I don't know, bo

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Speaker 1: I just twenty five to one if that's a good

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Speaker 1: enough price on JT in an event with such a

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Speaker 1: loaded field. He was twelve here a year ago. He

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Speaker 1: lives in Florida. He's been top ten in each of

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Speaker 1: his last two events on tour. But yeah, I just

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Speaker 1: can't get on board with those odds being so shorts.

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Speaker 1: And then two guys from this group who do have

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Speaker 1: a pretty good track record here Sung Jim, including back

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Speaker 1: to back thirds for him in twenty nineteen and twenty twenty,

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Speaker 1: but he hasn't been in good form at all lately.

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Speaker 1: He's missed the cott in his last two events. And

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Speaker 1: Matt Fitzpatrick also really hasn't done much this year, but

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Speaker 1: he is a horse for the course for top tens.

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Speaker 2: In his last six trips to bay.

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Speaker 3: Hill, especially with Oberg and more Kawa, what's killed them

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Speaker 3: has been scrambling, and again that's a very key statistic

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Speaker 3: at bay Hill, where if you get out of position,

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Speaker 3: you have to be able to scramble and make pars

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Speaker 3: or even bogies are a good score if you're at

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Speaker 3: a position, instead of bogie avoidance, you're looking at double

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Speaker 3: bogie avoidance. I think that they If there's any chink

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Speaker 3: in the armor for Ludwig Oberg in colinmar Kawa, it's

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Speaker 3: in the scrambling where they haven't always been good at

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Speaker 3: avoiding the big number when they're out of position. It

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Speaker 3: seems like they're a little short for that. And I

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Speaker 3: will disagree with you on Justin Thomas. I think that

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Speaker 3: he's a little underpriced with how well he fits this

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Speaker 3: golf course. The only kind of bugaboo I've seen with

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Speaker 3: Justin Thomas's game has been his long eir approach, which

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Speaker 3: does play here, but the rest of his game, including

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Speaker 3: scrambling and short game, have been spot on. He's also

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Speaker 3: been really good off the tea lately, so I do

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Speaker 3: think that Justin Thomas is worth a look, while Colin Moore,

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Speaker 3: Coahwa and Ludwig Oberg might be getting more of the

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Speaker 3: steam from what they've done on other golf courses that

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Speaker 3: maybe fit them better than this one does.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, guys, driving the ball well as Justin Thomas has

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Speaker 1: been doing, do you have an advantage here? I don't

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Speaker 1: think it's necessarily a bomber's paradise. I think guys who

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Speaker 1: are shorter hitters can win here, but having a big

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Speaker 1: driver and an accurate driver is certainly an edge. Moving

302
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Speaker 1: onto the mid range options, Wyndam Clark, Victor Hovlin, Sam Burns,

303
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Speaker 1: Maverick McNeely and Robert McIntyre are all fifty to one.

304
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Speaker 1: Tony Finow, Shane Lowry, Russell Henley and Daniel Berger are

305
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Speaker 1: fifty five to one. Tom Kim, Taylor, Pendrith, Sepstraca and

306
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Speaker 1: Corey Conners are sixty to one. Michael Kim and Ben

307
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Speaker 1: Griffin two guys who've been pretty hot lately. They're sixty

308
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Speaker 1: five to one, and at seventy to one are Seawoo Kim,

309
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Speaker 1: Jason Day, Jake Knapp, and ak Sha Batilla. What about

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Speaker 1: these guys, bo, does anyone stand out to you?

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Speaker 3: Well, it's funny. Then I'm gonna completely contradict what I

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Speaker 3: just said based on odds, But the two guys I

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Speaker 3: have in this range are both not very good at scrambling,

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Speaker 3: but they fit the golf course everywhere else, and I

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Speaker 3: think that I'm favoring them versus the other sort of

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Speaker 3: odds guys because their odds are longer. Tony Fenow and

317
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Speaker 3: Victor Hoveland, neither one of these guys is synonymous with

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Speaker 3: scrambling or getting up and down when they're in trouble,

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Speaker 3: but they are synonymous with amazing ball striking that it

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Speaker 3: will take here from tee to green. Tony Fenow and

321
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Speaker 3: Victor Hoblin, for me, have the ability to grind out

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Speaker 3: good scores in tough conditions, which is why I'm kind

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Speaker 3: of hovering out my finger over those numbers. Fifty five

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Speaker 3: to one for f now, fifty to one for Hobland.

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Speaker 3: Those two stand out to me pretty heavily. Another one

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Speaker 3: that I couldn't quite get to is Corey Connors because

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Speaker 3: on top of that being a terrible scrambler, he has

328
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Speaker 3: no short game to speak of. That's not going to

329
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Speaker 3: play here at all. Keegan Bradley is the other one

330
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Speaker 3: at forty five to one that is a little bit

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Speaker 3: more solid across the bag. I just think that he's

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Speaker 3: only going to compete here if the conditions get really difficult.

333
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Speaker 1: Yeah, Keegan is interesting, I think for maybe a top

334
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Speaker 1: ten or a top twenty. It just like he's never

335
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Speaker 1: been in real serious contention here. It seems like he's

336
00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:35,919
Speaker 1: always kind of lurking, makes the cut easily, cashes, but

337
00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:40,800
Speaker 1: no real title threats. Trophy threats here from Keegan Bradley

338
00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:44,040
Speaker 1: Victor Hoblin at fifty to one ball, I can't pass

339
00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:46,880
Speaker 1: up that value. No Like I know, Hovelin hasn't made

340
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Speaker 1: much noise in the four Tour events he's played this year,

341
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Speaker 1: but we know what he's capable of, and he has

342
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Speaker 1: finished top ten at the Arnold Palmer in two of

343
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Speaker 1: the last three years, including a second to Scotti Scheffler

344
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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two. Shane Lowry has been playing well.

345
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Speaker 1: He was third here last year. And if the wind

346
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Speaker 1: is howling bo as it's opposed to on Thursday and Sunday,

347
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Speaker 1: it is to the big irishman's advantage. And I love

348
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Speaker 1: betting Russell Henley on Florida courses bo.

349
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Speaker 2: I'm just kind of addicted to It didn't quite work

350
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Speaker 2: out last week.

351
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Speaker 1: I had him at twenty three to one, was feeling

352
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Speaker 1: pretty good about it at the Cognizant Classic. But I'm

353
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Speaker 1: going to go back to the well at fifty to

354
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Speaker 1: one this week, longer odds with the better field. Henley's

355
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Speaker 1: been top ten in three of his last four events,

356
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Speaker 1: and he was thirteenth at.

357
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Speaker 2: Bayhill a year ago.

358
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Speaker 1: What about long shots bo anyone with odds of seventy

359
00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:41,760
Speaker 1: five to one or longer who you are considering this week?

360
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Speaker 3: Not that many this week is it's pretty much a

361
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:47,560
Speaker 3: front runners type course. You're not going to see a

362
00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:50,600
Speaker 3: lot of unfamiliar names, which has kind of been the

363
00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:52,959
Speaker 3: calling card of the PGA Tour so far this season.

364
00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:56,679
Speaker 3: Is a lot of leaderboards with some lesser known names.

365
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:59,720
Speaker 3: This will not be that kind of week. I think

366
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Speaker 3: the top of my board, the farthest I'm going to

367
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:06,159
Speaker 3: go is one hundred and fifty to one. With the

368
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:10,080
Speaker 3: playing terribly but way too long and actually a pretty

369
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Speaker 3: good fit for this golf course. Max Oma. Let's see

370
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Speaker 3: if we can get Max on track again this season.

371
00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:17,800
Speaker 3: It seems to be more mental with him. He's a

372
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Speaker 3: really talented golfer and he's shown us that he's won

373
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Speaker 3: tough tournaments before with his exploits in Southern California have

374
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:25,919
Speaker 3: a couple of years ago. I don't think he's that

375
00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:29,040
Speaker 3: far gone from his best form. He's got to be

376
00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:31,520
Speaker 3: better off the tee for sure, but he's still a

377
00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:35,240
Speaker 3: great scrambler. He's still despite being awful off the tee

378
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:39,000
Speaker 3: this season and last, he's been hanging around leaderboards every

379
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,120
Speaker 3: once in a while, and it's usually on a grinder

380
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,040
Speaker 3: type course like this. So Max Homa for me at

381
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Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty to one is crazy. And then,

382
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Speaker 3: of course, if you're going to talk tough courses that

383
00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:52,320
Speaker 3: challenge long iron approach, I'm going to take a stab

384
00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:54,520
Speaker 3: at Justin Rose at two hundred and fifty to one.

385
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:57,960
Speaker 3: It just seems like a crazy long odds there. It's

386
00:19:58,080 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 3: there's not much to that. I'm not going to throw

387
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 3: a bunch of weight behind it. But I will give

388
00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:07,040
Speaker 3: you an alternate to the Russell Henley bet. I see

389
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 3: your Russell Henley bet, and I raise you a guy

390
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,679
Speaker 3: who's actually better for this golf course, has better history

391
00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:16,280
Speaker 3: on this golf course and across the board, has better

392
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:20,560
Speaker 3: odds and more likely to win here than is your

393
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Speaker 3: guy Russell Henley. And that's Denny McCarthy. Denny McCarthy's going

394
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:26,400
Speaker 3: out at seventy five to one, and I'm not saying

395
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:28,360
Speaker 3: he's gonna win, but a top ten bet on him

396
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 3: is a great value. This guy's third in this field.

397
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 3: And scrambling in fifth and bogey avoidance. He's also a

398
00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,840
Speaker 3: really darn good approach player on long distances and one

399
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:39,760
Speaker 3: of the best short games in the world. Denny McCarthy

400
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:42,119
Speaker 3: is the guy I'm looking at in that mid range

401
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:44,840
Speaker 3: or mid to high range that I would much rather

402
00:20:44,840 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 3: play than Russell Henley this week.

403
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:50,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that call with the short game, his

404
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,879
Speaker 1: ability with the flat stick. Once again, Paul, I have

405
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 1: to put in a good word for Billy Horschell, a

406
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,200
Speaker 1: grinder who's at his best on tough courses. He's also

407
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:02,440
Speaker 1: been pretty good in FLA traditionally. Horschel was twenty fifth

408
00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:05,480
Speaker 1: last week in West Palm Beach. He finished second at

409
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Speaker 1: Bayhill in twenty twenty two, and another grinder, Harris English

410
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:14,080
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty to one one in tough conditions

411
00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 1: at the Farmer's Insurance Open several weeks ago. Has two

412
00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 1: top tens at bay Hill in the last five years,

413
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 1: including a second in twenty twenty three. So better than

414
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:27,119
Speaker 1: one hundred to one odds on Harris English. I'm interested

415
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:30,320
Speaker 1: for sure. Let's go to the early betting cards. Bow,

416
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 1: who is on your card?

417
00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:36,360
Speaker 3: I have Rory McElroy plus eight hundred, and then I'm

418
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 3: gonna go down to a little bit of Victor Hovland

419
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:42,760
Speaker 3: at fifty to one, tony feet now fifty five, I

420
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 3: think I will throw some Danny McCarthy money more than

421
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 3: a top ten. Seventy five to one's a pretty decent

422
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:52,440
Speaker 3: nine for him. Not gonna overinvest myself. But then I'm

423
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 3: gonna throw some long shots on Max Homa despite my

424
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:00,440
Speaker 3: apprehension to the way he's played the season, and Max

425
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:02,400
Speaker 3: I'm at one hundred and fifty to one, and then

426
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,920
Speaker 3: two hundred and fifty to one justin Rose. I'm more

427
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 3: going to be heavily investing in Rory McElroy and Victor

428
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 3: Hovelin like you are now.

429
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,560
Speaker 1: I've been betting golf exclusively on DraftKings so far this year,

430
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:17,880
Speaker 1: and DraftKings did not have any top five or top

431
00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:21,159
Speaker 1: ten lines posted as of this morning, Monday morning, So

432
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,919
Speaker 1: for now, it's all outrights for me. Victor Hoveland at

433
00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 1: fifty to one, Shane Lowry at fifty five to one,

434
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:30,199
Speaker 1: Russell Henley at fifty five to one, Billy Horschall at

435
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,399
Speaker 1: eighty to one, in Harris English at one hundred and

436
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 1: twenty to one. Once those top fives and top tens

437
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:39,880
Speaker 1: are up, I will probably piggyback you on Danny McCarthy

438
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:43,439
Speaker 1: bow Now for the one and done competition, I had

439
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 1: Russell Henley last week. He tied for sixth, good for

440
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 1: three hundred and ten thousand, five hundred dollars. BOW had

441
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,440
Speaker 1: Jordan Speith. He tied for ninth, good for two hundred

442
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 1: and fifty nine thousand, nine hundred dollars. Solid weeks for

443
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 1: both of us. My turn to bat lead off this week,

444
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:01,400
Speaker 1: and I am going to take someone we didn't talk

445
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:04,679
Speaker 1: about who's played pretty well here traditionally bo and should

446
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:08,119
Speaker 1: be okay if it gets windy. Tommy Fleetwood the Englishman?

447
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:10,159
Speaker 2: How about you? Who are you taking?

448
00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,400
Speaker 3: I'm looking at my board. I've burned some big, big

449
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:17,160
Speaker 3: names already this year. I'll probably go with a guy

450
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 3: who I didn't talk about yet either, and that's number

451
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 3: one in scrambling in this whole field. I feel like

452
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 3: he will make the fifty man cut, and he just

453
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 3: seems to fit here except for his approach game has

454
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 3: been a little squarely. Sam Burns. I'll take Sam Burns

455
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 3: here because I think that he's the kind of guy

456
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,119
Speaker 3: who could surprise me and without the threat of really

457
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 3: missing a cut. I don't think he's going to be

458
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 3: that bad here. I think I'd rather go for the

459
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 3: big money play instead of a guy who's never won

460
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 3: anything ever.

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00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:49,439
Speaker 1: All Right, So Sam Burns for Bo, Tommy Fleetwood for me.

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00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 1: Before we get out of here, the Arnold Palmer is

463
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:55,119
Speaker 1: a small field, but running concurrently this week is the

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00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 1: Puerto Rico Open, a full field event, not a great field.

465
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 1: Sam Stevens is a favorite at twenty to one. Is

466
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 1: there anyone you're interested in betting at the Puerto Rico Open?

467
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:07,679
Speaker 3: Bow? Actually, yeah, chan Kim at thirty to one. He

468
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 3: opened at thirty five, but Chan Kim has been playing great.

469
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 3: The thing with Puerto Rico, it's a lot like the

470
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 3: Mexico Open, where they play on Paspalum. Long hitters are

471
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:18,920
Speaker 3: definitely favored here, So I love what I saw at

472
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 3: a Chan Kim in the last few weeks and some

473
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 3: of those lower events, so I'm gonna take a shot

474
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 3: at him. I always always love playing Rico Hoey. He's

475
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 3: one of the nicest guys I've ever met. Rico Hoy

476
00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 3: is at thirty five to one, and I know you're

477
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 3: probably gonna rubber stamp your approval on this. But Stanford

478
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:39,360
Speaker 3: guy Michael Thorpejornsen is in this field at forty to one,

479
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 3: so I think I'll stick with those three guys. I'm

480
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 3: not going to over get over my skis at the

481
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 3: Puerto Rico Open. I'm not that much of a degenerate,

482
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,720
Speaker 3: but I do want some action here, and those three

483
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 3: guys are are in my crosshairs.

484
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 1: Well, gosh, bo Michael Thorbjornsen's odds must have dropped after

485
00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 1: I bet him this morning because I took him at

486
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 1: forty five to one. Oh, I was going to be

487
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:02,119
Speaker 1: all over that guy in this event.

488
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 2: I love those.

489
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 1: Odds in a weaker field event. I also like Bryce

490
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 1: Garnett at forty to one. I mean, I never really

491
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 1: love betting on defending champions, but three top tens in

492
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 1: the last four Puerto Rico Opens for Bryce Garnett. Andy

493
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 1: was eleventh last week at the Cognizant Classics, so he

494
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 1: comes in pretty good form and ball I took your

495
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,200
Speaker 1: guy William Mau at one hundred and ten to one.

496
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 1: Had to take a long shot in Puerto Rico, so

497
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 1: and that's going to do it for this week's Betting

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00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 1: Pros PGA podcast. We will be back next week to

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00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:39,359
Speaker 1: preview another big event, the Players Championship, the unofficial fifth Major.

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00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 2: Until then, so long everyone. Thanks for listening to the

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00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 2: Betting Pros Podcast.

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00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:47,200
Speaker 1: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

503
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,200
Speaker 1: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

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00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 1: or Spotify.

505
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:53,840
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