1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,040 Speaker 1: Why from our nation's camera this budget thing is going 2 00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:05,520 Speaker 1: to do nothing Space Force. I still think it's interesting. 3 00:00:05,559 --> 00:00:08,880 Speaker 1: President Trump not playing his cards yet. Headlines Policy and 4 00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: politics colliding Floomberg sound on, the insiders, the influencers, the insides. 5 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:17,319 Speaker 1: I would rather see a congressional solution. It's part of 6 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: my DNA. The Senate map in looks a lot different 7 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:23,320 Speaker 1: than it looked in. You really have a divide within 8 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:26,079 Speaker 1: Team Trump. The President has to do exactly what people 9 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: sent him here to do, which is to get it done. 10 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:33,879 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Sound On with Kevin Shrilling on Floomberge 11 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 1: and one oh five point seven fm h D two. 12 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 1: I'm June Grasso sitting in for Kevin Sorelli. President Donald 13 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: Trump ordered a US air strike that killed one of 14 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:47,199 Speaker 1: the rand's most powerful generals. In a brief address from 15 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 1: his moral legal resort, Trump said General Kasam Soleimani was 16 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 1: plotting imminent and sinister attacks against American diplomats and military personnel. 17 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 1: We do not seek regime change. However, the Iranian regimes 18 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 1: are Asian in the region, including the use of proxy 19 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:07,480 Speaker 1: fighters to destabilize its neighbors, must end, and it must 20 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:11,119 Speaker 1: end now. Joining me is John Gan's former chief speech 21 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 1: writer at the Pentagon and author of White House Warriors, 22 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:18,920 Speaker 1: How the National Security Council Transformed the American way of War. 23 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:23,680 Speaker 1: John Soleimani has been a leader in Iran for quite 24 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:27,280 Speaker 1: some time. Tell us a little bit about him. Well, 25 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 1: so he was he's been a leader in Iran and 26 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 1: directing really Iran's regional activities for decades, really um activities 27 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:41,080 Speaker 1: that have included sort of its long running battles against Israel. 28 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:44,959 Speaker 1: It's long long running sort of work to support proxies 29 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 1: and like Hesbal and other forces and in countries around 30 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 1: the region. And then it's like sort of long running 31 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 1: push to try and get the United States out of 32 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 1: the region, and Solomonia has really been this sort of 33 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 1: sort of grand strategy of this effort. Um. But even 34 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: more than just sort of the big thinker, he was 35 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 1: sort of out there around the region, as as the 36 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 1: past twenty four hours have demonstrated, he was like on 37 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 1: the ground. He wasn't just somebody who sat in the 38 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 1: war room. He was somebody was out there sort of 39 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:17,839 Speaker 1: directing forces. And so he's somebody that um, I think 40 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:20,799 Speaker 1: most Americans who do know who he is, and that's 41 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 1: not many really became most familiar with him because he 42 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:27,080 Speaker 1: was directing actions against American troops, including this sort of 43 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 1: placement of improvised explosive devices in Iraq at the sort 44 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 1: of peak of violence in the Iraq War and two 45 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:37,399 Speaker 1: in like two thousand six, two thousand seven, two thousand five, 46 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,680 Speaker 1: and so that's when most American passmakers became so most 47 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 1: familiar with them and sort of most became committed to 48 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 1: sort of seeing him taken down. So that's been, as 49 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:50,359 Speaker 1: you say, going on for quite some time, through several administrations. 50 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 1: Do we know what happened that led to this strike 51 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 1: at this particular time The Chairman of the Joint Chief 52 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:03,079 Speaker 1: said there was compelling evidence. Yes, So it does appear 53 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 1: based on what we're sort of hearing from the Trump administration. 54 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 1: Two things. One, I think we've seen through the Trump 55 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 1: almost the entire Trump administration this sort of cycle of 56 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:16,200 Speaker 1: tit for tat with Iran where we sort of see 57 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 1: an action and then a counter reaction and things along 58 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:21,160 Speaker 1: those lines. UM. And in most instance is this is 59 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 1: sort of sort of resulted in sort of um, sort 60 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:27,920 Speaker 1: of a de escalation. In this particular case, last week 61 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 1: we saw an attack UM on American forces in northern 62 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 1: Iraq and Krokok that resulted in the death of one 63 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 1: American contractor and the injuries to several other Americans. The 64 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 1: the the Trump administration responded with some strikes against American 65 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 1: proxy excuse me, Irani and proxy forces in Iraq, which 66 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 1: then led to a protest and that was sort of 67 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: stoked by Iranian forces in Iraq against the American embassy 68 00:03:57,240 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 1: in Baghdad, and then you sort of saw this big 69 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 1: of escalation with the attack on Slam. What we're hearing 70 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 1: is that there is some evidence um that the Trump 71 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 1: administration has not shared, but it is sort of relying 72 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 1: on that suggested that there were imminent attacks. Um. There's 73 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 1: some suggestion this was a preemptive move to try and 74 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 1: stop one of those attacks. I think we will have 75 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 1: to see what that evidence is, UM, if if it's 76 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 1: ever forthcoming. UM. But it's no surprise that he was 77 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 1: probably planning some actions against Americans. It's a question of 78 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:30,600 Speaker 1: whether those actions were sort of required this quicker move 79 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:34,600 Speaker 1: and required this scale of a response. UM. And now 80 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 1: those actions, I mean historical evidence and academic research aggists 81 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,279 Speaker 1: that just because you take out the sort of leader 82 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 1: of a force that's involved in these kinds of actions 83 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 1: doesn't mean they're going to stop, and in fact could 84 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 1: lead to some escalation. So it's not necessarily a sure 85 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 1: thing that this stop those actions. Um though it seems 86 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 1: to have been the pretext for this particular attack, he's 87 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 1: already been replaced by his number two apparently now around 88 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 1: Supreme leader the Ayatola Kameny quickly threatened severe retaliation. The 89 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 1: Foreign Minister said that the Islamic Republic's response to the 90 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 1: US killing the country's top military commander will come at 91 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 1: any time and by any means. Is there is there 92 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 1: any speculation about what form Iran's retaliation will take and when, Well, 93 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 1: you just have to log on to Twitter to see 94 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 1: there's a lot of installation about what that will be. 95 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:31,280 Speaker 1: Uh So, well, Twitter is predicting World War three as 96 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:33,040 Speaker 1: far as I can tell you, I mean, we've got that, 97 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:35,839 Speaker 1: We've got the whole spectrum. I mean, I think there 98 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 1: is um plenty of studying and plenty of research and 99 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:42,719 Speaker 1: plenty of to suggest that Iran will respond. It doesn't 100 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:45,479 Speaker 1: necessarily have to respond in kind by sort of taking 101 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 1: out a senior American military official or other kind officials, 102 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 1: though that's one option. There are American interests to spread 103 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 1: all of the region, and they're spread all over the world, 104 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 1: and Iran can respond um in kind, or they can 105 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:03,440 Speaker 1: respond in a different way, UH. And they can either 106 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 1: sort of continue to escalate things, or they can try 107 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 1: to find some sort of happy medium that tries to 108 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 1: tries to sort of safe face without necessarily taking this 109 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 1: to the next level. Iron's got a lot of power, 110 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 1: a lot of options at the disposal, and a lot 111 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:18,919 Speaker 1: of American targets to pick from. UH. And some of 112 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 1: those are civilian and some of those are domestic. Right, 113 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:23,720 Speaker 1: they have cyber capabilities that can reach the United States 114 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,360 Speaker 1: and have and so I think there's a lot of speculation. 115 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 1: I don't think anybody sort of knows. I think the 116 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 1: predictions are safe to assume that something will happen UH 117 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 1: in the in the near term. But as I sort 118 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:36,080 Speaker 1: of pointed out earlier today, you know, I don't think 119 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:39,159 Speaker 1: anybody would have predicted a week ago where we are today. 120 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 1: So it's hard to necessarily say where we're going to 121 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 1: go from here. Let me ask you this I've been 122 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 1: curious about because Chuck Schumer said that none of the 123 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 1: Gang of Eight had been notified about this, and I 124 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 1: don't know if there's an indication that any Senator was 125 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:56,200 Speaker 1: notified except for some, say Lindsay Graham, who golfed with 126 00:06:56,279 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 1: President Trump over the holidays. Is this the kind of 127 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 1: strike that normally you would notify the Gang of Eight? Well, 128 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 1: it's a good question. I think that there are some 129 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 1: policies and sort of practices that are in place in 130 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:15,559 Speaker 1: terms of covert actions and things along those lines where 131 00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 1: I think we're and I am not a legal expert 132 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 1: on the law of or um and sort of those 133 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 1: sorts of things, but I will say that where this 134 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 1: one gets murky is there are a lot of authorities 135 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 1: that are in place because of the fact that this 136 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: occurred in a rock and because we have ongoing hostilities 137 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 1: against the Islamic state there um, and because he was 138 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 1: designated terrorists. So there are certain authorities that are allowed 139 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 1: and require different things. The only thing I'd say is 140 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 1: is that generally speaking, um, most administrations would find it 141 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 1: in their in their um interest to at least keep 142 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 1: Congress on their side during these sorts of incidences and 143 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 1: during these sorts of covert actions, because Congress can has 144 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 1: oversight over the agencies, including the Defense Department. The other 145 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 1: thing I'd say is is that what's interesting about this 146 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 1: attack and what's interesting about this escalation is occurring at 147 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 1: the time where President Trump is facing a trial on 148 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: appeachment in the Senate and facing a re election campaign, 149 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 1: and one of America's sources of strength is the ability 150 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 1: to sort of martial America's sort of public opinion and 151 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 1: martial congressional support. Donald Trump has not shown much interest 152 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: in doing either of those things, and so it comes 153 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 1: to the sort of precipitous time and in an awkward 154 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:33,280 Speaker 1: time for him in terms of his relationship with Congress. 155 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 1: So it will be interesting to see how Congress has 156 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 1: calls to investigate and perhaps authorize this sort of actions. 157 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 1: Will complicate whatever response and counter response the Trump administration 158 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 1: considers in the days and weeks ahead. Now, centered Tim 159 00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 1: Kaine said he plans to file a Warpowers resolution to 160 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 1: force debate and vote in the sending in the Senate 161 00:08:54,480 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 1: and further military operations against Iran Um. I also understand 162 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:03,240 Speaker 1: in the light of that that the US is bolstering 163 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 1: its military presence in the Middle East. Now, yeah, I 164 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 1: mean one of the most interesting things about the Trump 165 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:13,320 Speaker 1: administration is that he is vocally always talking about how 166 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 1: he wants to sort of get out of the Middle 167 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 1: East and full American troops out of the Middle East, 168 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 1: but he keeps sending them to the Middle East. So UM. 169 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 1: I think since the since April or May, he sent 170 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 1: fifteen thousand troops to the Middle East, and now he's 171 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:28,319 Speaker 1: sending more as of today. And so what you're actually 172 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 1: finding is that this is actually increasing America's commitment to 173 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 1: the Middle East, and to degree increasing the number of 174 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:38,440 Speaker 1: targets um uh for Iran and so um. And it 175 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:42,480 Speaker 1: will sort of complicate what President Trump's sort of doctor 176 00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 1: and a sort of withdrawing American troops in the Middle 177 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:47,280 Speaker 1: East since sort of his campaign promises that he made 178 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 1: in two thousand and sixteen on the campaign and presumably 179 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:51,840 Speaker 1: he was hoping to run in two thousand and twenty, 180 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 1: and so it's a very uh, touch and go time. 181 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:58,199 Speaker 1: I think that the Pentagon is uh sort of reacting 182 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:01,000 Speaker 1: to events as quickly as they can and reacting to 183 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 1: the decisions the President's making as quickly as they can. Um. 184 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 1: And it's certainly probably not the end of deployments and 185 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 1: not the end of sort of the need to sort 186 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:12,920 Speaker 1: of protect America's both forces in presence in the Middle least. Well, 187 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:16,200 Speaker 1: thank you so much for all that information. You certainly 188 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 1: know a lot about this area. Thanks so much, John. 189 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:22,479 Speaker 1: That's John Gans. He is the author of White House Warriors, 190 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:26,679 Speaker 1: How the National Security Council Transformed the American way of War. 191 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 1: Coming up, we're going to talk more about what's happening 192 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:34,320 Speaker 1: in the US Congress as far as its military strike. 193 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:38,760 Speaker 1: Of course, we saw that Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and 194 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 1: Minority Leader Chuck Schumer war at odds over this. I'm 195 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:54,360 Speaker 1: June Grosso. You're listening to Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg 196 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:58,520 Speaker 1: Sound On with Kevin Surley on Bloomberg and one oh 197 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 1: five point seven f m h he too. I'm June Grasso, 198 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 1: sitting in for Kevin, sir. Really well. Senate Majority Leader 199 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:10,240 Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer had different reactions, 200 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:13,079 Speaker 1: of course, to the drone strike in around that killed 201 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:18,080 Speaker 1: one of Irand's most powerful generals. Mccon McConnell applauded it 202 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 1: as it was, he said, the end of a terrorist leadership. 203 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:27,680 Speaker 1: Here's um here's Senator Chuck Schumer. No one should shed 204 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 1: a tear over his death. The operation against Solomony in 205 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:38,560 Speaker 1: Iraq was conducted, however, without specific authorization and any advanced 206 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 1: notification or consultation with Congress. And that was just on 207 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:48,440 Speaker 1: the floor of the Senate today. And I'm joined by 208 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 1: Max Burns, Democratic strategist in the New York studio. Max, 209 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:57,080 Speaker 1: what's your reaction to all this? I think this shows 210 00:11:57,120 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 1: more than anything the importance of credibility in foreign policy, 211 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 1: much more than domestic policy. There's really nothing stopping the 212 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 1: President from engaging in any kind of foreign policy adventurism 213 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 1: that he wants. What binds the president and gives strength 214 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:17,840 Speaker 1: to American actions abroad is the ability to trust what 215 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 1: the White House and the Pentagon says. Now they've given 216 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: three or four different justifications for this, none of which 217 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:27,959 Speaker 1: quite add up completely. UH, and now are essentially saying, 218 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:30,840 Speaker 1: just trust us. There was a plot we were interrupting, 219 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 1: while providing no evidence that that's true. And what you'll 220 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 1: see now with Tim Kaine introducing this Privileged Revolution resolution 221 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 1: in the Senate UH to essentially bind the president's hands 222 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:45,800 Speaker 1: on escalating this war is a discussion over just how 223 00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:48,240 Speaker 1: credible the White House is claims of a threat really 224 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 1: are joining us now on the phone. Is Lester months 225 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:55,959 Speaker 1: in principle at the government relations firm b GR Group 226 00:12:56,000 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 1: and adjunct faculty member at Johns Hopkins University, Sole Ster. 227 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 1: Does the Trump administration have a credibility problem here? Well, 228 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 1: I don't think they do. Leading members of the Republican 229 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 1: Party at least have said, and I include in that 230 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 1: Senator Rish who's the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee 231 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 1: and who also sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee, have 232 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:22,760 Speaker 1: said they've had conversations with the President, They've been briefed 233 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:26,320 Speaker 1: at least in part already, and they feel that the 234 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:29,680 Speaker 1: President is on good grounds to take the action that 235 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: he did. It's my understanding that there'll be a briefing 236 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:37,720 Speaker 1: of staff as early as today, uh and that the administration, 237 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 1: as required under the law, will notify the relevant members 238 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:47,559 Speaker 1: of Congress forthwith about their action. Which is because this 239 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:51,720 Speaker 1: was a basically an intelligence operation, they have to notify 240 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 1: certain members, including a leadership, very quickly, and they're going 241 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 1: to do that. So I think we should wait and 242 00:13:56,880 --> 00:14:00,839 Speaker 1: see what those briefings contain. Listened to the members to 243 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:02,640 Speaker 1: go a brief them before we jumped to too many 244 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 1: conclusions Lester. Senator Chris Murphy this afternoon was calling this 245 00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:11,800 Speaker 1: an assassination, and he said that this man has been 246 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:14,760 Speaker 1: around this general for two decades Solomany, and that the 247 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 1: neither the Bush nor the Obama administration when after him 248 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 1: because they were afraid that it would in effect create 249 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 1: a martyr and would lead to war with Iran. What's 250 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 1: your take on that, Well, you know, largely he's not wrong. Uh, 251 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,480 Speaker 1: this is this is a risky move. Solomoni is a 252 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 1: leading figure in Iran, or was a leading figure in Iran, 253 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 1: and there could be real consequences for what has happened. 254 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 1: On the other hand, Iran was pushing the envelope with 255 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 1: the United States in Iraq and elsewhere. An American had 256 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:53,400 Speaker 1: been killed directly just a few days ago. So there's 257 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:55,960 Speaker 1: no question that the that the Trump administration, which by 258 00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 1: and large had not acted directly in response to Iranian provocation, 259 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 1: had to do something. This was a big response. The 260 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 1: President is saying, Uh, there will be further big responses 261 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 1: if Iran threatens US interests or takes more lives. On 262 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 1: the other hand, he said he's not looking for regime change. 263 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:16,880 Speaker 1: He's trying to show that there will be a forcible 264 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 1: US response, but he doesn't want war with Iran. I 265 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:24,360 Speaker 1: believe that former Ambassador John Bolton said time for regime 266 00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 1: change on his Twitter account today. Max, might we find 267 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 1: out information might be revealed to us in the coming 268 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 1: days or weeks that will justify this strike, that there 269 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 1: are circumstances beyond what President Barack Obama or George W. 270 00:15:41,680 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 1: Bush saw. It's certainly possible. I mean, there's still a 271 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 1: lot that we don't know. And that's one of the 272 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 1: challenges with these covert foreign policy operations, as you really 273 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:53,680 Speaker 1: only have one channel of information, and that's the people 274 00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 1: who want desperately for this to be legitimized. The challenge 275 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 1: here is that General Suleimani, far from being Osama bin Laden, 276 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 1: despite his awful reputation and to be clear, he is 277 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 1: a terrible person, was Uh, is still the uniform general 278 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 1: of a recognized nation state. So when they say the 279 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 1: Authorization for the Use of military force in two thousand 280 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:22,680 Speaker 1: one justified it, when they say ten USC justified it, 281 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 1: none of that covers the fact that what we have 282 00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 1: essentially done is assassinate the general and perhaps the second 283 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 1: or third most prominent individual in Iran. Uh, very directly 284 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 1: in a way that the United States has not done 285 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:41,520 Speaker 1: in decades. Lester, the way this came about has led 286 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 1: the Iranians, certainly the foreign minister, to say that this 287 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 1: is international terrorism. As the Trump administration opened itself up 288 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 1: to that kind of critique. Well, I think that's uh, 289 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 1: it's actually the opposite case. Iran is the one that's 290 00:16:57,040 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 1: guilty of terrorism. Sulimani was in in country, he was 291 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 1: supporting terrorist organizations in that country that we're acting against 292 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:10,639 Speaker 1: Iraqi forces and American forces. So it's it's kind of 293 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 1: the usual propaganda from Tehran. I'm afraid, so I don't. 294 00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:16,800 Speaker 1: I don't think that's a legitimate criticism at all. One 295 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:20,840 Speaker 1: thing I found a little bit odd. Perhaps the statement 296 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:24,879 Speaker 1: wasn't written by him, but um President Trump, we know 297 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 1: has repeatedly criticized the U. S. Intelligence community. Tonight in 298 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:32,480 Speaker 1: his statement he said that we have the best intelligence 299 00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 1: in the world. Do you think he has a problem 300 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:38,879 Speaker 1: relying on intelligence when he doesn't when he when he 301 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:41,119 Speaker 1: likes what they have to say, and not relying on 302 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:44,200 Speaker 1: them when he doesn't like what they have to say. Lester, Well, 303 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 1: it's certainly. It certainly is an issue, isn't it? And 304 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:52,959 Speaker 1: he is at certain times very praiseworthy of the intelligence community, 305 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:55,880 Speaker 1: at other times sharply critical. I think the times where 306 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 1: he sharply critical is when he feels that the intelligence 307 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 1: community has either targeted him or his campaign or come 308 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 1: to some conclusion that doesn't come forward with his worldview, 309 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:11,120 Speaker 1: and yes, that that economy does not necessarily help him 310 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 1: at all. Now, um, Max, what what do you see 311 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:20,919 Speaker 1: Democrats doing now? Just sort of standing around and complaining 312 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:22,879 Speaker 1: or you know, harping on it, or do you think 313 00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 1: they'll really take some action as um the former vice 314 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:31,879 Speaker 1: presidential Tim Caine said he was going to do today. Well, 315 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:35,399 Speaker 1: this is really sort of divided the Democratic primary. You 316 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,800 Speaker 1: have people like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren who came 317 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:42,199 Speaker 1: out very strongly and said this is an assassination. We 318 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 1: need to prevent being steamrolled into another war in the 319 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 1: Middle East. And then individuals like Pete boota judge and 320 00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 1: Joe Biden who made much more middle of the road, 321 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:58,639 Speaker 1: much more tempered statements that emphasized how evil General Sulimani 322 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 1: was but asked for more oversight. So there's that challenge, 323 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 1: and now there's also with Senator Kane, this debate will 324 00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 1: have now over a resolution that will essentially limit the 325 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 1: president to thirty days of combat against Iran without further authorization. 326 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:17,480 Speaker 1: And there's a lot of fear in the party now 327 00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:19,639 Speaker 1: that we don't want to make the same mistakes we 328 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 1: did with Iraq. And that's Bernie Sanders big point today 329 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 1: was I was right about Vietnam, I was right about Iraq. 330 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:30,120 Speaker 1: I'm right now, and we have to stop this. And 331 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:33,919 Speaker 1: and Lester, is it in President Trump's best interests and 332 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 1: his desires not to have this go any further because 333 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:42,640 Speaker 1: of his stance on not getting involved in stupid wars. Yeah, 334 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,199 Speaker 1: I think that's That's exactly it. And this is this 335 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:48,399 Speaker 1: is a dilemma for the president. He has said, you know, 336 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,119 Speaker 1: contrary to John Bolton, I guess who is who no 337 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 1: longer works for Trump, I would point out that he's 338 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:55,920 Speaker 1: really not interested in regime change. He does not want 339 00:19:55,920 --> 00:20:00,400 Speaker 1: another Iraq war. He specifically campaigned against things like that 340 00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:05,640 Speaker 1: in the election. And so he's he's got a he's 341 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 1: got a thread, a tough needle here of having a 342 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:11,879 Speaker 1: tough response to Iranian aggression, but also not getting the 343 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:14,679 Speaker 1: US dragged into any kind of conflict that gets it 344 00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:16,640 Speaker 1: more bogged down in the Middle East. It's a it's 345 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:19,879 Speaker 1: a it is a tough dilemma. On the other hand, 346 00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 1: I do have to say, I think if he had 347 00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:25,399 Speaker 1: not responded to the killing of an American just a 348 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 1: week ago, that he would he would have a worst dilemma. 349 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 1: At least now the president has acted, He's shown that 350 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:35,959 Speaker 1: he's willing to respond to direct Iranian action and that 351 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:40,439 Speaker 1: should in the long run lead to better behavior from Iran. 352 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:44,359 Speaker 1: Um what what do you think, Max, Because so Iran, 353 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 1: it's of course Iran. Every president has that I can 354 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 1: think of. In the past modern age has had trouble 355 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 1: dealing with Iran, and sometimes you need to take a 356 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:58,520 Speaker 1: strong step. Do we think that what happens next is 357 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 1: dependent in a large part, in large part on what 358 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 1: irandas next. Yeah, And they have a few options on 359 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,479 Speaker 1: the table, ranging from sort of tipp for tat strikes 360 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:12,080 Speaker 1: in Iraq to closing the Strait of Hormuz and jacking 361 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,800 Speaker 1: the price of oil through the ceiling, which would cause 362 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:18,400 Speaker 1: a ton of global instability, especially in the United States. 363 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:23,160 Speaker 1: But the bigger challenge here is understanding what or if 364 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 1: the White House even had a game plan for after 365 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,919 Speaker 1: this strike took place, because this is not an individual 366 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:34,119 Speaker 1: whose death has gone unnoticed. It's it's a great provocation. 367 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 1: And my hope is that at least someone in the 368 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 1: Pentagon had gamed out the likely outcomes here. But it 369 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 1: doesn't seem from the public response at least that much 370 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 1: of anything has been figured out in the White House. Well, 371 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,359 Speaker 1: we are going to be learning that, I hope and 372 00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:54,160 Speaker 1: most Americans hope over the next few days or months, 373 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,359 Speaker 1: as we learn more and more about what happened here. 374 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:01,440 Speaker 1: Certainly we learned more just from President Trump's statement this 375 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:07,120 Speaker 1: evening before he left for Washington. Coming up on sound On, 376 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 1: We're gonna be talking about the impact of this on 377 00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 1: perhaps impeachment. Remember impeachment. It seemed like it was in 378 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 1: the background today with the talk of the Iran strike, 379 00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:22,359 Speaker 1: but it is still being talked about by those that 380 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:35,040 Speaker 1: matter in Washington. I'm June Grassow. This is Bloomberg. You're 381 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:38,959 Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg Sound On with Kevin Surley on Bloomberg 382 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,280 Speaker 1: and one on five point seven f m h D two. 383 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:47,080 Speaker 1: I'm June grass sitting in for Kevin Well two weeks 384 00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:51,119 Speaker 1: off for the holidays. No movement on the Senate impeachment trial. Today, 385 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 1: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer 386 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:58,120 Speaker 1: traded insults on the Senate floor. We've heard clients, that's 387 00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 1: a problem that I've discussed trial mechanics for the White House, 388 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,359 Speaker 1: even as my counterpart, the Democratic Leader, is openly coordinating 389 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 1: political strategy with a speaker who something might call a 390 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:14,280 Speaker 1: prosecution leader. McConnell reminds us today and in previous days 391 00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:17,639 Speaker 1: that rather than acting like a judge in a juror, 392 00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:22,000 Speaker 1: he intends to act as the executioner of a fair trial. 393 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 1: I've been talking with Lester Munson and Max Burns. Max, 394 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:32,480 Speaker 1: does this strike in any way affect the non moving 395 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:37,840 Speaker 1: impeachment trial at the moment, it's it's actually tough to say. 396 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:41,479 Speaker 1: This certainly gives more to the Senate to discuss. I mean, 397 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 1: in ten days now, Tim Kaine's resolution will come up 398 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:48,240 Speaker 1: for debate, and that will probably be uh, what's on 399 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,399 Speaker 1: most people's minds figuring out the details of this strike. 400 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,479 Speaker 1: And there's no sign yet that Speaker Pelosi is going 401 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,440 Speaker 1: to move the articles of impeachment to the Senate, So 402 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,679 Speaker 1: there's no telling if those will overlap, how that might 403 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:07,440 Speaker 1: distract from anything. Lester, what there does anyone believe that 404 00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell is going to call witnesses or be forced 405 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:14,280 Speaker 1: by any of the Republican senators who seem to be 406 00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 1: talking about being you know, receptive to witnesses to call 407 00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 1: witnesses at this trial. Mitch McConnell rarely says anything that 408 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,960 Speaker 1: he can't back up with action. So I strongly suspect 409 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 1: that this is going to roll in the Senate the 410 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:36,280 Speaker 1: way McConnell prefers, and that whether the Speaker delays any 411 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 1: further the deliverance of the articles of impeachment or not, 412 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,560 Speaker 1: aside from that, this is this is going to be 413 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:46,520 Speaker 1: a fairly streamlined process that McConnell has been talking about. 414 00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:49,600 Speaker 1: He doesn't want to turn it into a circus either 415 00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:53,320 Speaker 1: for the prosecution in the House or frankly, for the 416 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:55,920 Speaker 1: White House to try and call, uh, you know, Joe 417 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,120 Speaker 1: Biden or Hunter Biden or something like that. So I think, 418 00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,679 Speaker 1: I think when ultimately comes to shove, and that may 419 00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:05,320 Speaker 1: take a couple of weeks or four or six weeks. Uh, 420 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:09,240 Speaker 1: this will play out largely the way Sandra McConnell has outlined. 421 00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:13,200 Speaker 1: So push comes to shove. What could it be, especially 422 00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 1: now that we have this military strike in the headlines 423 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:18,760 Speaker 1: and on most people's mind, what could it be that 424 00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:23,920 Speaker 1: would push Nancy Pelosi to send those articles over well. 425 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 1: I think Pelosi in a way is has a limit 426 00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,280 Speaker 1: on how far she can go with this right. She 427 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 1: doesn't want to drag out the impeachment question well into 428 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 1: the year. The Democrats have a primary, excuse me, a 429 00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:40,600 Speaker 1: caucus in Iowa in less than a month now. They 430 00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:44,480 Speaker 1: would like the focus to be on their candidates. Eventually, 431 00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:47,560 Speaker 1: they're one candidate to oppose Trump, and they so they 432 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:50,720 Speaker 1: want to They also the Democrats also have an interest 433 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:53,760 Speaker 1: in moving on from this impeachment process. Nancy Pelosi knew 434 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,560 Speaker 1: this was not a great idea months ago. She was 435 00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,560 Speaker 1: kind of forced into doing it by her base. Now 436 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:01,720 Speaker 1: she's to embrace it, at least in public. But I 437 00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:03,119 Speaker 1: think at a certain point is going to want to 438 00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,240 Speaker 1: get this over with so the Democrats can move on 439 00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 1: with finding their nominee and someone who can articulate a 440 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,960 Speaker 1: program that will be an alternative to President Trump's program. 441 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,359 Speaker 1: It's it's it really is critical for them that they 442 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:18,320 Speaker 1: get to that fairly quickly. Max. It seems the longer 443 00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:21,440 Speaker 1: it takes to get to the Senate impeachment trial, the 444 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:26,359 Speaker 1: less power is behind the idea of impeachment. And you know, 445 00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:30,120 Speaker 1: even though you have all these these emails coming out 446 00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 1: and revelations in different New York Times investigations, it doesn't 447 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:37,960 Speaker 1: seem to be giving any impetus to the idea of impeachment. Yeah. 448 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:39,960 Speaker 1: And if you talk to someone in Iowa or a 449 00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:43,359 Speaker 1: Democratic voter in New Hampshire, uh, and ask them what's 450 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,720 Speaker 1: going on with impeachment, they have long since forgotten this. 451 00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:48,680 Speaker 1: I mean things have come up since that have just 452 00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:53,359 Speaker 1: taken everyone's attention. And we see that there's still momentum 453 00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,600 Speaker 1: in a way behind this, because just yesterday we saw 454 00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,400 Speaker 1: the release of a bunch of emails from the Pentagon 455 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:03,760 Speaker 1: to the Office of Management and Budget that we're not hearsay, 456 00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 1: we're not uh. People referring referencing what they heard. It's 457 00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,880 Speaker 1: things that said clear direction from the President to continue 458 00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:16,480 Speaker 1: holding on Ukraine. Uh. These are things that are explosive 459 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,879 Speaker 1: by any standard, and this gives Speaker Pelosi I think 460 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,600 Speaker 1: an out to say we want to stop and investigate 461 00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:24,800 Speaker 1: these as well and at least have a look at 462 00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:27,640 Speaker 1: what all this amounts to before we move it forward. 463 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,960 Speaker 1: But Lester, does it seem to be gathering any momentum 464 00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,560 Speaker 1: for the public as as opposed to for you know, 465 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,280 Speaker 1: the Democrats and the Democrats in the House and the 466 00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,359 Speaker 1: Senate saying we want to have more information, we want 467 00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:43,800 Speaker 1: to have witnesses. Does it seem to be moving anyone 468 00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 1: in the public or the polls seemed to be just 469 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:50,640 Speaker 1: about the same. Yeah, the initial news about the quid 470 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:52,960 Speaker 1: pro quo with Ukraine and does and it really does 471 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:54,560 Speaker 1: seem like there was a there was a quid pro 472 00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:59,399 Speaker 1: quo and an inappropriate one. Uh showed that support for 473 00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,359 Speaker 1: impeachment and a removal went up to about of the 474 00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:06,280 Speaker 1: American populace. It's really stayed about the same since then, 475 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:10,679 Speaker 1: maybe fluctuated a point or two. Uh So, so President 476 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:12,639 Speaker 1: Trump knows it's really not you know, unless that get 477 00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:15,440 Speaker 1: that number gets up to sixty or seventy, it's not 478 00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:17,480 Speaker 1: really a threat to him. He's not going to be 479 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:21,640 Speaker 1: removed by the Senate. This thing hasn't really changed. Yes, 480 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:24,040 Speaker 1: the facts, the more they come out tend to affirm 481 00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:28,200 Speaker 1: that the administration made them frankly, you know what I 482 00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 1: would call bad decisions about relationship with Ukraine. But it's 483 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:36,600 Speaker 1: it's the American people don't see this impeachment process going anywhere. 484 00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,880 Speaker 1: I think. I I you know, I'm a Republican, but 485 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,240 Speaker 1: I personally think the better approach for the Democrats would 486 00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,080 Speaker 1: be to say, uh, we're gonna we're gonna get this 487 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,840 Speaker 1: impeachment wrapped up, and we want you to to vote 488 00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:50,880 Speaker 1: in November for the better candidate. They can make a 489 00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:52,760 Speaker 1: case you can remove this guy if you think he's 490 00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,840 Speaker 1: a bad president in November. Let's let's go with that. 491 00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:58,560 Speaker 1: The American people will, I think, will be more supportive 492 00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 1: of that than the impeachment. Let me ask you this, though, 493 00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:04,560 Speaker 1: though impeachment seems to be sort of not on the 494 00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:08,280 Speaker 1: minds of most Americans, is it on President Trump's mind 495 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 1: at least from the tweets over the holidays? Yes, yes, 496 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,080 Speaker 1: I would say from Twitter, Yes it is on his mind, 497 00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:19,920 Speaker 1: and he does seem to be responding in real time 498 00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:21,440 Speaker 1: to a lot of the stuff as it comes out. 499 00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:24,360 Speaker 1: He's clearly focused on it, and he's not going to 500 00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:28,440 Speaker 1: let any charge against him go unanswered. Whatever the merits 501 00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:31,360 Speaker 1: of his response, He's you can count on him to 502 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:35,360 Speaker 1: to keep the conflict going. I suppose Max, do the 503 00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:39,240 Speaker 1: Democrats lose anything by doing just what Lester said. Let's 504 00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:41,720 Speaker 1: wrap this up, let's get on to the election, and 505 00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:45,840 Speaker 1: then we'll show you how you should vote. I don't 506 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:47,600 Speaker 1: think they do. I think they once you move this 507 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:50,480 Speaker 1: to the Senate, people will remember again that this was 508 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:54,680 Speaker 1: happening because this was a political lifetime ago for most Americans. 509 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:58,280 Speaker 1: It was a lifetime ago for me. I covered every 510 00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,600 Speaker 1: day and most people. I think the majority would have 511 00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:05,080 Speaker 1: forgotten completely had President Trump not kept this drum beat going. 512 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,600 Speaker 1: But what you see on the campaign trail is exactly that. 513 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:12,400 Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren's not talking about impeachment. She's talking about U S, 514 00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,800 Speaker 1: m c A and Iran. Bernie Sanders is talking about 515 00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:19,960 Speaker 1: healthcare and Iran. Joe Biden is talking, I think the 516 00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 1: most of anyone about impeachment. But then again, he he 517 00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:26,360 Speaker 1: is being directly implicated in this in a really unfair way. 518 00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:28,880 Speaker 1: So that's not surprising, but it's not It's not a 519 00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:32,080 Speaker 1: thing that I think candidates have seen gets voters motivated. 520 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:36,240 Speaker 1: So you barely hear about it. So, Lester, is there 521 00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:40,360 Speaker 1: anything you can think of that would make Americans care 522 00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:46,600 Speaker 1: more about impeachment? Well, uh, you know, I suppose you 523 00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:50,120 Speaker 1: mean to the extent they would be more likely to support, yes, 524 00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:54,720 Speaker 1: be more excited about seeing a trial. Uh, gosh, it 525 00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:59,040 Speaker 1: really Uh it stopped me too. It was an unfair question, Lester, 526 00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:02,240 Speaker 1: because it's stopped me, you and you I think, you 527 00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:05,080 Speaker 1: know again, I kind of go back to my earlier point. 528 00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:07,880 Speaker 1: There's a dilemma for the Democrats here. They had Nancy 529 00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:10,400 Speaker 1: Plosy didn't really want to go through this impeachment process. 530 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:12,880 Speaker 1: She knew it wasn't going to go anywhere. She didn't 531 00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,040 Speaker 1: see it as a winner for her side, And so 532 00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:18,280 Speaker 1: they kind of had a rushed process last year, late 533 00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:22,040 Speaker 1: last year when the House voted out the impeachment articles. 534 00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:25,120 Speaker 1: If they had gone if they had gone slower, and 535 00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:29,160 Speaker 1: they had subpoena John Bolton and some of these other 536 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:32,240 Speaker 1: folks who were directly involved and gotten a little more 537 00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:37,280 Speaker 1: electrifying testimony I suppose about exactly what the president decided 538 00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:40,200 Speaker 1: when he decided it, and whether people left the administration 539 00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,160 Speaker 1: because of it or not. And and that was more revelatory. 540 00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:46,720 Speaker 1: If if that had happened, And maybe that couldn't have 541 00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,240 Speaker 1: happened because people would have moved to quash the subpoenas 542 00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,480 Speaker 1: or whatever. But if that had happened, I think it's possible. 543 00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:55,360 Speaker 1: If you had gotten some of the president's own people 544 00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:58,760 Speaker 1: to testify against him, and by his own people, I mean, 545 00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,240 Speaker 1: like actual political point to views that he named, not 546 00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:05,040 Speaker 1: career folks, then I think you could have seen a 547 00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:09,600 Speaker 1: plausible shot at uh more support for removal. But that 548 00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:13,600 Speaker 1: that didn't happen, it's not going to happen. Uh And frankly, 549 00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:15,800 Speaker 1: I think, you know, for everyone's sake, we should just 550 00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:17,920 Speaker 1: have have the vote on the thing and move up. 551 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,520 Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi is looking smarter and smarter in hindsight from 552 00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:26,320 Speaker 1: her original declaration that there shouldn't be an impeachment trial. 553 00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:29,160 Speaker 1: All right, well, coming up, we're going to be talking 554 00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:34,239 Speaker 1: about the effect on the Remember candidates, they've also been 555 00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:38,120 Speaker 1: in the background right now. But does the military strike 556 00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:41,920 Speaker 1: in a Ran give one candidate Joe Biden and edge 557 00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:46,720 Speaker 1: because the focus is more on foreign policy. I'm June Grassland. 558 00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:58,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg's sound on with 559 00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:03,160 Speaker 1: Kevin Surley in Bloomberg and one oh five point seven 560 00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,800 Speaker 1: f m h D two. I'm June Grosso, sitting in 561 00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:09,600 Speaker 1: for Kevin and I've been joined to night by Max Burns, 562 00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:12,880 Speaker 1: democratic strategist and contributed to Daily Beast and The Independent. 563 00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:16,160 Speaker 1: And Lester Monston, principle at the Government Relations Firm b 564 00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:20,960 Speaker 1: GR Group and adjunct faculty member JOHNS Hopkins University. Lester, 565 00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:24,760 Speaker 1: I'll start with you. So the drone strike today, will 566 00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:28,960 Speaker 1: that perhaps play to the strength of Joe Biden in 567 00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:32,160 Speaker 1: the Democratic primary race by putting a new focus on 568 00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:35,360 Speaker 1: foreign policy, which he's more expert in than any of 569 00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,280 Speaker 1: the other candidates. I have to say, well, I have 570 00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,520 Speaker 1: a lot of respect for Joe Biden. I I worked 571 00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:43,640 Speaker 1: on the Foreign Relations Committee when he was chairman of it. 572 00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:46,520 Speaker 1: Granted for the other side, but he's he's a good man. 573 00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:48,360 Speaker 1: He's putting a lot of work on these issues. I 574 00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:51,560 Speaker 1: think that the problem for him is his views are 575 00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:55,840 Speaker 1: not necessarily those of the base of the Democratic Party. 576 00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:59,560 Speaker 1: He voted for the Iraq War, he's been generally more 577 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:03,840 Speaker 1: for leaning the most Democrats on foreign policy issues. Say, 578 00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,800 Speaker 1: and by the way, the same critique kind of applies 579 00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:10,800 Speaker 1: to mayor Pete Buddha Jedge, who's I think becoming a 580 00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:14,080 Speaker 1: little more of a moderate on foreign policy issues. I 581 00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:16,640 Speaker 1: think there's a real danger for both Biden and bud 582 00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:20,360 Speaker 1: A Jedge here that they could lose. They could go 583 00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:22,319 Speaker 1: a little too far and lose kind of the base 584 00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:26,600 Speaker 1: of that primary electorate and their party. Max, what's your 585 00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:29,640 Speaker 1: take on whether there's an edge? No matter what Joe 586 00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:33,759 Speaker 1: Biden has past is he can always say, hey, I've 587 00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:35,759 Speaker 1: been there, I've been to a rock I was you know, 588 00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:38,080 Speaker 1: all the different things that he did during his vice 589 00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:40,520 Speaker 1: presidency in these years in the Senate. Yeah, and that 590 00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:44,080 Speaker 1: reflects with Democratic voters. I think in several polls by 591 00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:47,960 Speaker 1: large margins, Democrats consider Joe Biden the one they trust 592 00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:52,839 Speaker 1: the most on foreign policy, and Pete Buddha Judge has 593 00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,759 Speaker 1: come up. I think in those polls he actually leads 594 00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:59,920 Speaker 1: among State Department employees, among Department of Defense employees for contribution, 595 00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:03,439 Speaker 1: but it's still Joe Biden by a mile when people 596 00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:06,680 Speaker 1: are talking about foreign policy and the Democratic Party. That 597 00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:10,279 Speaker 1: may be a challenge for Joe Biden because he has 598 00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:13,880 Speaker 1: still not come up with a great explanation for his 599 00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:18,440 Speaker 1: votes on a Rock and this creates opportunities I think 600 00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:22,640 Speaker 1: equally for Buddhi Jedge, Biden and Bernie Sanders, who really 601 00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:25,680 Speaker 1: keys into that anti war element of the party and 602 00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:29,400 Speaker 1: has made no mistake about where he stands on this 603 00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:35,759 Speaker 1: like healthcare, no mistake. Uh. Now, with some huge fund 604 00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:39,680 Speaker 1: raising halls by Bernie Sanders, he blew the competition away 605 00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:42,120 Speaker 1: by reporting he'd raised thirty four and a half million 606 00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:45,360 Speaker 1: dollars in the fourth quarter. He's going to have the 607 00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:48,479 Speaker 1: biggest war chest. How will that help him? It really 608 00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:51,400 Speaker 1: is an insane amount of money when you think about 609 00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:53,880 Speaker 1: the fact that in October, when Senator Sanders had his 610 00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,360 Speaker 1: heart attack, people were writing him off and saying that's it. 611 00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:59,680 Speaker 1: And now he's come up in the polls I think 612 00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:03,600 Speaker 1: five or ten points since then. Um. This also shows 613 00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:07,200 Speaker 1: that Elizabeth Warren has has in a sense lost the 614 00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:09,759 Speaker 1: battle for the left, at least for now. That she 615 00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:12,759 Speaker 1: tried to take on Bernie Sanders directly on Medicare for All, 616 00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:17,759 Speaker 1: tried to position herself as a more pragmatic progressive, and 617 00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:21,680 Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders, in both polling and fundraising, has just crushed 618 00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:24,400 Speaker 1: her on that. So where she goes is now an 619 00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,759 Speaker 1: open question. As well, but Bernie has locked the left 620 00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:30,040 Speaker 1: in the Democratic Party so far. Well, we have to 621 00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,600 Speaker 1: leave it there. It's been such an interesting night. Thank 622 00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:36,719 Speaker 1: you both Max Burns and Lester Monson for being here 623 00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:41,160 Speaker 1: with me on sound On. I'm June Grosso and Kevin Surilli. 624 00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:44,520 Speaker 1: Will be back on Monday, so you can listen for that, 625 00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:48,399 Speaker 1: and and I'll be back on the Bloomberg Law Show 626 00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:51,560 Speaker 1: now coming up. Uh. I just want you to remember 627 00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:55,120 Speaker 1: that download the Bloomberg Sound On podcast on iTunes, at 628 00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:58,479 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, or by downloading the Bloomberg Business App. 629 00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,919 Speaker 1: You can also find sound on on Radio dot com, 630 00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:05,920 Speaker 1: I Heart Radio, and Spotify. Thanks so much for listening tonight. 631 00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:08,719 Speaker 1: Have a great weekend. I'm June Grosso and this is 632 00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:10,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg One.