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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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Speaker 1: Jason Kelly. We're here every day bringing you the latest

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Speaker 1: news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,

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Speaker 1: all harnessing the power of Bloomberg Business Week reporters and editors,

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Speaker 1: not to mention our hundred journalists and analysts more than

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Speaker 1: a hundred and twenty countries. You can download Bloomberg Business

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Speaker 1: Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You can

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Speaker 1: also listen to our radio show weekdays at two pm

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Speaker 1: Eastern only on Bloomberg Radio Well Testing Tracing. They are

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Speaker 1: at the core of everything that happens going forward. We

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Speaker 1: hear about it from the President, we hear about it

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Speaker 1: from experts on the Coronavirus Task Force, from governors, from mayors, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk to someone who is working on this on

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Speaker 1: the front lines on a national level. Anita Cicero is

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Speaker 1: deputy director of Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. It's

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Speaker 1: part of the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health.

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Speaker 1: As you might tell by the name, the Bloomberg School

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Speaker 1: of Public Health is supported by Mike Bloomberg. He's the

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Speaker 1: founder of Bloomberg LP, Bloomberg Philanthropy's parent company of this

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Speaker 1: radio station. Anita, So good to talk to you. Good

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Speaker 1: to be here, Jason. So what you're doing, as I said,

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Speaker 1: is just really at the crux of all of this.

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Speaker 1: This is going to determine what happens next. Where are

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Speaker 1: we when it comes to really rolling out a plan

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Speaker 1: to find cases and to trace folks, Well, we we

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Speaker 1: do need a national plan for that, and so far

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Speaker 1: UM there has not been one. UM CDC has provided

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Speaker 1: some useful guidance, and UM talked about the role of

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Speaker 1: contact tracing and fighting the pandemics. But we developed our

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Speaker 1: own report on testing and contact tracing because we really

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Speaker 1: feel that that is the thing that's going to make

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Speaker 1: the difference UM in this outbreak. And for contact tracing,

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Speaker 1: it just involves finding out who an infected person came

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Speaker 1: in contact with, so that those individuals to be alerted

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Speaker 1: and UM and also quarantined in order to monitor their

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Speaker 1: health and to make sure that they don't continue spreading

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Speaker 1: the virus UM in public. UM. So this is critically

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Speaker 1: important at this juncture, especially if we're going to be

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Speaker 1: lifting social distancing. I gotta say I need to Every

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Speaker 1: morning I wake up, I throw on Google and I say,

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Speaker 1: you know, give me the top news headlines and I

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Speaker 1: hear about what's going on around the country. In terms

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Speaker 1: of starting these efforts UM to get control of the virus.

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Speaker 1: Tell me how a testing and tracing system will work,

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Speaker 1: what's the money needed to implement it, what are the

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Speaker 1: people needed to implement it, and what does someone like

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Speaker 1: me at home or Jason at holm, what do we

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Speaker 1: need to know about it? And what will we ultimately

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Speaker 1: need to do to make this work? All very good questions.

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Speaker 1: So UM UH contact tracing is something that's it's really

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Speaker 1: a traditional, old, tried and true method of being able

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Speaker 1: to trace UH the spread of infection and to control

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Speaker 1: the infections so that it's not spread further. And public

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Speaker 1: health agencies across the US have been doing this for years.

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Speaker 1: They do it UM to track these those cases tuberculosis

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Speaker 1: UM sexually transmitted infections. So this is something that our

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Speaker 1: state and local public health agencies know how to do UM.

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Speaker 1: Now that being said, they are understaffed and underfunded. I

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Speaker 1: think public health budgets UM in the past fifteen years

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Speaker 1: have been cut by UM. Most public health agencies in

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Speaker 1: the United States before COVID did not have UM staff

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Speaker 1: that were dedicated full time to contact tracing. This is

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Speaker 1: one of the many, many things that public health does

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Speaker 1: UM in the course of their their jobs. And so

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Speaker 1: what what is really needed is to have funding that

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Speaker 1: will go to the state, the state UM public health

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Speaker 1: departments and local public health departments so that they can

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Speaker 1: do a cup things UM. One is really to hire

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Speaker 1: a significant number of of workers UM or use volunteers

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Speaker 1: and train them so that they can assist with contact

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Speaker 1: tracing methods and also UM to to maybe make use

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Speaker 1: of some new technologies that may be coming online soon

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Speaker 1: that can assist with contact tracing UM. And in terms

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Speaker 1: of what is is UM, what's important to know about

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Speaker 1: this is that you know, we are all very you know,

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Speaker 1: it's desperate to get back to life as maybe not

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Speaker 1: completely normal, but more normal than we are living through

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Speaker 1: right now with these strict social distancing requirements. And the

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Speaker 1: key to being able to circulate again in public is

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Speaker 1: for the United States to know where all of its

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Speaker 1: COVID cases are UM, so to to use the testing

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Speaker 1: to order in order to identify all those cases and

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Speaker 1: then also be able to contact people who could have

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Speaker 1: been exposed to a confirmed case to make sure that

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Speaker 1: they're quarantined for fourteen days and stay out of circulation. UM.

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Speaker 1: Once we're able to do that, then and we we

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Speaker 1: know more or less where the cases are than others

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Speaker 1: who are not infected and who weren't exposed, UM will

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Speaker 1: be more able to go to work and and UM

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Speaker 1: and go to more you know, shops and and you know. Again,

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Speaker 1: it will be a while before things are completely back

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Speaker 1: to normal, but at least that it would allow social

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Speaker 1: distancing measures to be relaxed. So it is really important

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Speaker 1: UM in order to try to get this right. So

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Speaker 1: Anita and we're going to continue our conversation just a

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Speaker 1: few minutes, but in about a minute, tell us, I

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Speaker 1: mean collaboration and coordination seems really important. How confident are

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Speaker 1: you that we can do this between the federal and

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Speaker 1: eight and local levels. Well, again, we need funding. I

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Speaker 1: really have a lot of confidence in UM, state and

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Speaker 1: local public health officials to be able to have given

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Speaker 1: the resources to be able to manage UM these programs

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Speaker 1: and UM we can talk more about it. But the

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Speaker 1: training that's required it's not that extensive or that complicated.

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Speaker 1: So this is something that can be done. It's not

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Speaker 1: a moonshot, it's just the unesting it needs to be

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Speaker 1: there to hire the workforce. Still with us as a

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Speaker 1: need assist or a deputy director of Johns Hopkins Center

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Speaker 1: for Health Security, Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public

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Speaker 1: Health joining us from Washington, d C. I need one

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Speaker 1: thing I did want to get from you, because you

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Speaker 1: folks at Johns Hopkins have just been incredible in terms

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Speaker 1: of keeping track of the virus and really giving a

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Speaker 1: good indication and perspective on where we are, where we're going,

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Speaker 1: where we need to be going, based on you know,

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Speaker 1: the actions of everybody around the country. You also, you're

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Speaker 1: a lawyer, You've worked in Washington. You unders and pharmaceuticals,

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Speaker 1: the regulatory framework, UM, the policy framework. Uh, what do

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Speaker 1: you think is realistic in terms of us actually getting

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Speaker 1: a vaccine that can tackle this virus? Well, I that's

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Speaker 1: the you know, million dollar question right there. UM. And

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Speaker 1: the good news is that I think governments, UM, and

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Speaker 1: international organizations and industry are all focused on that goal

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Speaker 1: UM and working very hard, UM contributing a lot of

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Speaker 1: funding for that UM. I think that in in our country,

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Speaker 1: um F d A has shown some flexibility in terms

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Speaker 1: of regulatory issues surrounding UM development of vaccine UM. But

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Speaker 1: the you know, the fact is that it's really critical

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Speaker 1: to have randomized controlled trials to prove um the f

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Speaker 1: can see and and also you know safety of vaccines

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Speaker 1: that come online, and to do that well, UM, it

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Speaker 1: does take some time. So I think it's gonna require

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Speaker 1: some patients. I I'm optimistic that we will get there ultimately,

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Speaker 1: but it's um, it's unlikely to be right around the corner.

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Speaker 1: But this year or next year. I would not um

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Speaker 1: place my bets that will happen this year, Okay, but

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Speaker 1: you know, one can hope right right well, and and

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Speaker 1: certainly you know, some of the treatment on the treatment side,

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Speaker 1: of the therapeutic side obviously, So I'm not great news today,

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Speaker 1: uh from Gilead. You know. Meanwhile, closer to home here

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Speaker 1: in New York, you know, we got some data that

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Speaker 1: was it feels like at least as being interpreted as

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Speaker 1: somewhat positive in the sense of the spread and the

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Speaker 1: number of people who have developed antibodies here Anita, what

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Speaker 1: does that tell us and how does that figure into

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Speaker 1: this tracing project that you're working on. Naturally, when you

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Speaker 1: see figures like that coming out of New York and

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Speaker 1: New York City, especially where you know upwards of people

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Speaker 1: you know have been exposer actually have had the virus

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Speaker 1: and now have the antibodies. Help us understand how this

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Speaker 1: all fits together well. The testing and contact tracing in

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Speaker 1: addition to UM antibody testing which is called strology testing,

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Speaker 1: are all part of a disease surveillance system and they

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Speaker 1: would all have a role to play. UM. I think

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of hope that eventually there'll be enough

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Speaker 1: cases in you know, particular population to say, oh, now

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Speaker 1: we have herd immunity lenning enough people have been exposed

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Speaker 1: that UM, they're less likely to continue to be infected UM.

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Speaker 1: But even though there are some encouraging signs for different

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Speaker 1: places based on strology testing, UM, we there's no community

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Speaker 1: that is close to herd immunity UM. I think that

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Speaker 1: in terms of the antibody tests to UM, because there

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Speaker 1: were some relaxed regulatory requirements UM and to try to

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Speaker 1: get tests out as soon as possible. UM. There's UM.

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Speaker 1: It's sort of a mixed bag now. So some have

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Speaker 1: shown to have some you know, sensitivity UM issues and

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Speaker 1: and and problems and UM. And so I think that

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Speaker 1: FDA is sort of braining that back in a bit

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Speaker 1: and making sure that strology testing that is available is

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Speaker 1: you know, known to be reliable to determine the antibodies

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Speaker 1: and and then more work needs to be done really

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Speaker 1: to confirm that the presence of antibodies UM confers immunity

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Speaker 1: for people. And how long that immunity? Laughs, Hey, one

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Speaker 1: thing we wanted to ask you just got thirty seconds

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Speaker 1: here the hardest hit area, New York. They're finding that

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Speaker 1: over the people tested positive for a blood marker that

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Speaker 1: they had been infected at some point with the virus.

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Speaker 1: Just again about twenty five seconds. What what's important about

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Speaker 1: that that we need to know just quickly. Well, it

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Speaker 1: could be that those those people therefore have the anti

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Speaker 1: bodies and would not be UM reinfected with COVID anytime,

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Speaker 1: you know, for months at least UM. But also potentially

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Speaker 1: they could participate and donate UM plasma for UM other

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Speaker 1: patients UM who needed in order to help build their

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Speaker 1: anti bodies up to protect against the disease. All right,

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Speaker 1: all right, we really appreciate it, Thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: Great contacts. Anitasis Row Deputy director of John's Hopkins Center

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Speaker 1: for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of Public Health,

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Speaker 1: obviously the Bloomberg School of Public Health supported by Mike Bloomberg,

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Speaker 1: founder of Bloomberg LP. You are listening to bloom Burg

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Speaker 1: Business Week, and you know, Carol, when we map out

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Speaker 1: our show, there are some moments that I look forward

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Speaker 1: to just as a way to sit back, sort of

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Speaker 1: rest into the show and just talk to a really

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Speaker 1: smart person. And I know this is that moment. Joanas Sarah.

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Speaker 1: I love Joe No Sarah, one of my favorite folks,

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Speaker 1: been reading his stuff for years and now listening to

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Speaker 1: the dulcin sound of his voice. So we're buttering you

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Speaker 1: up because we really I'm telling you, I really like you.

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Speaker 1: Guys just want to you guys, just want to take

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Speaker 1: a rest and let me talk. We would do that. Um,

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Speaker 1: I was gonna I was gonna pump up your podcast

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Speaker 1: a little bit. The Shrink next door. It's perfect quarantine

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Speaker 1: listening if you if you're like one of the three

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Speaker 1: people in America hasn't already listened to it. But um,

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Speaker 1: we find you in Southampton, safe and sound, I hope.

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Speaker 1: And also what's it like out there? Can we ask

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Speaker 1: you what's it like out there. Well, let me just

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Speaker 1: put it this way. One maintenance is an essential sentual activity.

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Speaker 1: You're working in the art a lot. No. No, what

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Speaker 1: I'm saying is people are people are the workers, the

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Speaker 1: law business are are just going crazy out here. It's

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Speaker 1: like it's kind of unbelievable, really, um, I mean, and

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Speaker 1: then most of the ways were like everybody else, everybody's

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Speaker 1: wearing a mask. You can't go into certain stores. There's

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Speaker 1: a ton of takeout because, um, you know, there's somebody.

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Speaker 1: New Yorkers are together are so used to take out

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Speaker 1: that that all the restaurants are actually doing a pretty

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Speaker 1: good business. Um uh with take our pizza, take our pasta,

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Speaker 1: take out, steaks, take out every day. Um. But you

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Speaker 1: know it's it's it's quiet. It's it's definitely quiet. All right.

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Speaker 1: So what are the reasons we wanted to talk to

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Speaker 1: you today? Just and again, we we love talking to

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Speaker 1: you anytime. But I mean, you've had some some pretty provocative,

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Speaker 1: as you tend to columns, sort of taking stock of

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Speaker 1: where we are at this moment, especially when it comes

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Speaker 1: to the rescue that is underway. From the corporate side.

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Speaker 1: You've written a number of books about this. You understand

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Speaker 1: the financial system really well and in the corporate world,

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Speaker 1: what do you make of it so far? Because you

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Speaker 1: you've been a critic, I think it's fair to say

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Speaker 1: of how this is going well. I mean, the first

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Speaker 1: thing is the right way to do this, honestly, is

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Speaker 1: to put money in hands of the people, other than

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Speaker 1: trying to run it through a bank, uh and a business.

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Speaker 1: It's it's that's a crazy way to do it. And

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Speaker 1: you know, they're always in this. They're in this situation

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Speaker 1: now where they're just going to keep shoveling money to banks,

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Speaker 1: they're gonna keep shuggling to businesses. And it's been a

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Speaker 1: first It's first come for sure. So you know people

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Speaker 1: are saying, well, the big companies got it first, and

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Speaker 1: that's how I'm there. The big companies are organized, they

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Speaker 1: know how to do this, they know how to get

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Speaker 1: in the door. The little guy, the corner pizza joint,

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Speaker 1: he needs help, and um, they're not going to get

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Speaker 1: that help for the federal government. So you know, I

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Speaker 1: just think that proceeding the way we are is the

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Speaker 1: wrong way to proceed. Let me just say one other

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Speaker 1: quick thing. I'm so tired of being jealous of Germany.

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Speaker 1: But they've done this so right. They've given every citizen

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Speaker 1: a stipend for a four or five months, and that's

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Speaker 1: the way they're they're keeping their economy and their their

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Speaker 1: country going. What do you think there's any appetite to

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Speaker 1: do that here? Or is is the horse out of

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Speaker 1: the barn? Now the horse is out of the barn,

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Speaker 1: and it's it's just something that UM America is you know,

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Speaker 1: idiologically America had a hard time with that, at least

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Speaker 1: on the right, especially on the right, and UM, I

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Speaker 1: just don't think we're going to go that way, even

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Speaker 1: though it's obviously the most sensible way to do this. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: but how do we break the system general? I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's the big companies that listen or that you know

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Speaker 1: that lawmakers listen to. I mean, they're the ones that

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Speaker 1: have you know, the path direct path to Washington. Well,

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't blame this on the big companies.

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Speaker 1: I mean the big companies first of all, the ib ms,

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Speaker 1: the zeroctors, the h t s, they're they're gonna be fine,

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Speaker 1: They're gonna survive, They've got money in the bank. They're

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Speaker 1: they're all trying to keep their employees uh on the

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Speaker 1: payroll as much as they can. Um Uh. It's the

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Speaker 1: it's the the issue really is the small the small businesses,

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Speaker 1: the corner scores. You know. I'm terrified that when we

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Speaker 1: come out of this, you know, of the small businesses

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Speaker 1: in America are going to be gone. And that's that's

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Speaker 1: the tragedy to be worried about. So Joe shifting gears

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Speaker 1: a little bit, maybe dramatically. I want to talk a

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Speaker 1: little bit about sports, because it's something you've written a

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Speaker 1: lot about, uh and specifically the n C Double A.

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Speaker 1: What does the notion of for and it feels more

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Speaker 1: and more likely that we will not have certainly the

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Speaker 1: a measure of college sports and college football and everything

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Speaker 1: else that we're used to uh come this fall. What

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Speaker 1: are the implications of that for the business of sports

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Speaker 1: and for the business of the n C Double A.

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Speaker 1: And this model that you and others have essentially said

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Speaker 1: is speaking of fundamentally broken, fundamentally broken, right, Um, I

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Speaker 1: don't think there's going to be college football this year.

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Speaker 1: Um Uh. The athletic directors, you know, they got on

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Speaker 1: the phone with Pence a couple of weeks ago. He

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Speaker 1: wanted to talk to them, and they basically said, look,

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Speaker 1: if we don't have students on campus, we're not going

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Speaker 1: to have football, period, end of story, no matter, but

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Speaker 1: you want may want it. The the financial implications of

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Speaker 1: that are huge. Football is by far the uh you know,

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Speaker 1: it's a two or three billion dollar enterprise, and then

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Speaker 1: basketball is a billion dollar enterprise for the nayah, that's

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Speaker 1: where they get most of their money. And if you

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Speaker 1: can't televise college football, um, it's gonna be deatist aiding

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Speaker 1: to the to the world of college football. And uh,

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Speaker 1: I I think it's just I think it could wind

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Speaker 1: up meaning that there's a ratcheting, huge ratcheting back of

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Speaker 1: what football is, what it means, what it will do

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Speaker 1: for the society. I I think it will be much

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Speaker 1: much harder for coaches just to um justify a million

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Speaker 1: dollars a year and sorry, and it's gonna also mean

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Speaker 1: and this is the first tragic part. Nobody's going to

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Speaker 1: drop their football team. But they're already starting to drop.

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Speaker 1: You know, some some tennis teams, lacrosse teams, um universities

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Speaker 1: have petitioned the n c a A to be able

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Speaker 1: to go below fourteen sports, which is the n c

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Speaker 1: A a minimum. And I think you're gonna come out

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Speaker 1: of this with a lot of a lot of schools

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Speaker 1: having five or six sports only, which will be pretty devastating,

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Speaker 1: you know, because the real student athletes, the one to

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Speaker 1: play lacrosse, the ones who are never gonna be pro

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Speaker 1: and anything, they're the ones who are gonna get shafted.

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Speaker 1: Can I get word on the radio? Yeah, you just did.

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Speaker 1: It's done. It's out there in the Yeah. I do wonder. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: just that whole the whole um higher education world. What's

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Speaker 1: going to happen? I just had a story too about

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Speaker 1: you know, college is getting ready for students to ask

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Speaker 1: for more financial aid because their parents are going to

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Speaker 1: be out of work. I mean, it's just totally upended,

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Speaker 1: right yeah. Yeah, And and the students, students are already

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Speaker 1: upset because the universities won't have refunds even though even

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Speaker 1: though they're stuck with online classes, they've given refunds for

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Speaker 1: room and board, but not for tuition. And there's a

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Speaker 1: big you know, look, if you're a senior, I mean,

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Speaker 1: and you're you've gotten in some place next year, wouldn't

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Speaker 1: you be aren't you gonna want to take up a

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Speaker 1: gap year just because you're just going to be the first. Yes, totally,

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Speaker 1: totally finances. I think the finances of college education could

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Speaker 1: finally implode um and and and many would say that

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Speaker 1: that time has come. All right, Jonah Sarah, you're the

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Speaker 1: best Bloomberg Opinion calumnists. Noted author calumness I do I

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Speaker 1: do to host at the shrink next door? You really

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Speaker 1: should check that out. It's going to be a movie soon.

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Speaker 1: Will Ferrell, Paul Road, come on, it's gonna who's gonna

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Speaker 1: miss that? This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer

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Speaker 1: and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. You know, when we

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Speaker 1: were talking earlier to Joe No Sarah, we talked about

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Speaker 1: the n C Double A and obviously sports are a

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Speaker 1: part of the college experience, but only a part um,

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Speaker 1: even though for many of us it's the most important part.

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Speaker 1: But we won't get into that. But colleges, it's been

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Speaker 1: front of mind what colleges and universities are going to

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Speaker 1: do and what they're doing even in the meantime when

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Speaker 1: it comes to a Let's get into that and much

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Speaker 1: more with Janet Lawrence. She follows all things education for

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Speaker 1: us We love catching up with her. Got to start

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Speaker 1: with Harvard, Janet, what a week for them? Huh, yes,

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Speaker 1: what a week? Well, and if you look at the

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Speaker 1: formula they the Education Department came up with formula sent

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Speaker 1: percent of it was based on you know that the

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Speaker 1: Bravo income students. The other share was based on the

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Speaker 1: total number is one of the largest universities. And that's

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Speaker 1: what they were. That's what they were allotted. And as

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Speaker 1: you saw, the President criticized them, and they decided yesterday

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Speaker 1: UM to say they're not going to accept the money.

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Speaker 1: And all of their wealthy peers has done the same, Um, Yale, Princeton, Stanford,

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Speaker 1: They've all said the same thing, that they're not going

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Speaker 1: to take the money. Which I gotta say, you know,

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Speaker 1: we talked about this, Jason, I talked about this on

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Speaker 1: air and I said, well, you know this is they

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Speaker 1: didn't do anything wrong. This is the government program allowsing

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Speaker 1: this money. And man, people on Twitter came back and said,

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Speaker 1: you know, don't give Harvard a pass by saying the

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Speaker 1: government decided to send them the money, they need to

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Speaker 1: return it. I mean, it's considering that it's Harvard and

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Speaker 1: they actually didn't They actually didn't receive it. They they

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Speaker 1: were told this would be their allocation. Okay, but they

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Speaker 1: could have they couldn't. Yes, absolutely, the money was effectively

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Speaker 1: on the way. So what does it tell us, I guess,

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Speaker 1: Janet more broadly about what schools more broadly need, beyond

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Speaker 1: the Harvards, beyond the I v S and the Stanfords

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Speaker 1: of the world, because this is I think it's fair

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Speaker 1: to say, a time of crisis in higher education on

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Speaker 1: many fronts. Yes, absolutely, And we don't know who's showing

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Speaker 1: up in the fall. We don't know if the freshman

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Speaker 1: classes are going to be anywhere near where they need

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Speaker 1: to be to get the schools enough revenue to operate.

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Speaker 1: We don't know if the sophomore class is going to

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Speaker 1: be much smaller. We do know that the school the

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Speaker 1: students are going to be a lot meatier. So whatever

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Speaker 1: financially budgets they had previously, uh, it's going to be

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Speaker 1: very likely a lot bigger, and the schools will try

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Speaker 1: to accommodate that. But with fewer students, um they cancel

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Speaker 1: with a lot of their summer programs that give them

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Speaker 1: a really nice cushion of revenue they get every year,

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Speaker 1: and that money is just gone because they can't have

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Speaker 1: kids on campus. And they made you know, there was

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Speaker 1: a significant revenue generator having you know, thousands of high

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Speaker 1: school students coming to your campuses and selling the dorms,

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Speaker 1: having weddings, having band camps, hosting high school graduations, you

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Speaker 1: name it. That money's all gone now. Well, and I guess, Janet,

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Speaker 1: one of the things I keep coming back to is

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Speaker 1: this notion that most people would agree, especially people who

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Speaker 1: have to write the checks to send their kids to

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Speaker 1: college and the kids themselves going to college who have

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Speaker 1: some financial stake in the game, that college is extraordinarily expensive.

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Speaker 1: I don't think anybody would disagree with that. And yet

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Speaker 1: on the other side, you have a lot of colleges

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Speaker 1: and universities essentially saying, without the revenue that we are

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Speaker 1: counting on, just as you very well described, we will

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Speaker 1: go broke. What's the disconnect there and how does it change? Well? Uh,

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Speaker 1: parents are paying a lot of money for intimate experiences

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Speaker 1: with professors, small seminars, interactions with kids, you know, leadership

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Speaker 1: in club and if they're not getting that, why why

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Speaker 1: would they pay seventy thousand dollars or whatever they're paying?

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Speaker 1: And Uh, you know, I think you're gonna see a

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Speaker 1: lot of kids not want to go in the fall,

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Speaker 1: and uh justified be so uh why would anyone want

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Speaker 1: to start college online when they're paying the full price? Um?

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Speaker 1: So the question is we we don't know what's going

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Speaker 1: to happen, and the traditional date of acceptances may first.

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Speaker 1: A lot of colleges have moved back to Juniverse and

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Speaker 1: even July one, so we won't get a better sense

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Speaker 1: for quite a bit. But we do know that that

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Speaker 1: revenue that's expected to come in is likely not going

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Speaker 1: to be I have to say, and it was something

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Speaker 1: jonas Sarah mentioned, but I really thought about this. I

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Speaker 1: have a niece who is supposed to start college in

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Speaker 1: the fall. Um. But this whole idea of a gap year, like,

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Speaker 1: why wouldn't you? And I know that's a hard thing

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Speaker 1: to consider, But if you know it's going to be

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Speaker 1: kind of a weird year and you just don't know

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Speaker 1: what it's going to be like, certainly in the fall,

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Speaker 1: and who knows what it means, you know, carrying over

429
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,159
Speaker 1: into the new year. You know, I do wonder if

430
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 1: that will pick up some momentum. Janet, Well, it doesn't

431
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:14,119
Speaker 1: necessarily have to be a formal gap year program. You

432
00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 1: could you could try to get a job, or you

433
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 1: could follow here, or you could spend time with your

434
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 1: grandparents and and differ for a year. And you know,

435
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 1: you're not really losing anything. So I wouldn't be surprised

436
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 1: if we see a lot of kids make that decision. Yeah,

437
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:30,679
Speaker 1: it's interesting, and we know you're going to continue to

438
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 1: follow this story, Janet, because I feel like the fallout

439
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 1: to some extent is just beginning, you know, especially when

440
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:37,359
Speaker 1: you think about them. And I've been talking to some

441
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,120
Speaker 1: folks who work at smaller colleges and universities and they're

442
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,200
Speaker 1: just saying that, you know that this is an existential

443
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 1: crisis in many ways, all Right, Janet, Lauren always loved

444
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 1: catching up with her following all things education, higher education, endowments,

445
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 1: and you know, starting with the Harvard story this week,

446
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 1: which obviously caught a lot of headlines and Carol, as

447
00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 1: you say, just blew up on Twitter. You know, it

448
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 1: was like made for social media sort of moments, obviously

449
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:07,160
Speaker 1: propelled by the President in his daily press conference, and

450
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 1: that was when it really caught fire. But you know,

451
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 1: Harvard is a sort of almost like third rail word

452
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 1: in some cases right something. You know, a university system

453
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:20,880
Speaker 1: that's got incredibly deep pockets and alumni who will make

454
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:24,439
Speaker 1: sure that the money continues flowing. Uh So it's kind

455
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 1: of interesting. I was thinking about how we talked with

456
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 1: Mike that there's not great models for the economy right

457
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:30,680
Speaker 1: now because we've never seen these kind of statistics. And

458
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:34,199
Speaker 1: I felt, even for universities, the financial crisis isn't the

459
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 1: same even though they saw cutbacks. This is just a

460
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 1: whole different ball game, it is. Uh. There was a

461
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,359
Speaker 1: funny story about how the most off word used by

462
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 1: CEOs these days, unprecedented, makes sense. Use unprecedented journal now.

463
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 1: But you let me drive. Oh no, enough home, honey, please,

464
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,880
Speaker 1: I'll do the right drivel let me. I want to drive,

465
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 1: Just drive by the question trying. This is the drive

466
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:26,679
Speaker 1: to the Globe Commune. Thanks, we'll try us down on

467
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. All right, just got about ten minutes left

468
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,160
Speaker 1: to in today's trading session. We've been bouncing around right now.

469
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 1: We're just off our loads of the session, still a

470
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 1: little bit higher on those major equity averages, but definitely

471
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:39,680
Speaker 1: way off our highs of the session. Let's get into

472
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 1: it with Jack McIntyre. He's Global fixed income portfolio manager

473
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 1: a Brandywine Global Investment Management. He joins us on the

474
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 1: phone from Philadelphia, Jack, Nice to have you here. UM,

475
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:53,199
Speaker 1: talk to us a little bit about your world and

476
00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 1: investing right now. So all right, think global, you know

477
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 1: that opens invest anywhere in the world. You know, we UM,

478
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 1: we've got a kind of a barbelled portfolio. So one

479
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 1: of the things that we've been doing, the biggest change

480
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 1: is we've been increasing our investment great corporate bond exposure.

481
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,239
Speaker 1: And the reason being is that you know, we're not

482
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:15,920
Speaker 1: just we you know, we're not fighting the FED. We're

483
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 1: joining the FED. You know, we we're taking what they're

484
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 1: giving us. UM. You know, we're doing some very high

485
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 1: quality names. But you know, we've raised some dollars UM,

486
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 1: but we still have some Miam exposure. And and that's

487
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 1: been this the part of the portfolio that certainly is underperformed. UM.

488
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:36,400
Speaker 1: I think from evaluation standpoint, it's it's compelling, but again

489
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 1: there's a lot of uncertainty coming out of this UM,

490
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 1: you know, and that's probably what the markets are kind

491
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 1: of wrestling with now. It's not necessarily that's the flattening

492
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 1: of the infashion curst. But what's the world's gonna look

493
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 1: like coming out of this? And this is where we

494
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 1: kind of all have to sort of guests a little

495
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 1: bit how we think it's going to play out. Well, Jack,

496
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 1: that's a that's a really interesting point because I mean

497
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 1: this is a to go back to what you said,

498
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 1: this is a global pandemic and has played out very

499
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 1: unevenly around the world, and I think there's a lot

500
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 1: of discussion out there as to what this actually looks

501
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 1: like when maybe it hits in a more meaningful way,

502
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 1: especially in some of those emerging markets. We had a

503
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 1: guest on I believe it was earlier this week, you know,

504
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 1: talking about how they're very very few cases in Africa,

505
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 1: for instance, right now. Maybe that will remain, but you know,

506
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 1: we've seen a huge surge, I believe in in India.

507
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 1: So what does it take and how do you do

508
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 1: the work to to kind of synthesize the medical side

509
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 1: and the investment side. So you're not it's a great question,

510
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 1: and you know, to be honest, I mean there's no

511
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 1: set answer. You know. What we have to do is

512
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 1: kind of go back and look at you know, everything

513
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:50,000
Speaker 1: from you know, the demographics. Uh and yeah, you know

514
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 1: obviously not obviously, but a lot of countries have younger

515
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 1: uh parts of the population. Well, and it looks like

516
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 1: they're better position to come out of this. You know,

517
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 1: some countries they've kind of gone through their versions of pandemics.

518
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 1: Maybe their immune systems are earned better shape. But you

519
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, it's and we obviously know, you know,

520
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 1: they don't have the fiscal resources to do what we're

521
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 1: doing in the developed world. We know the healthcare systems

522
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 1: are under investing all that kind of stuff. Um, you know,

523
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 1: I kind of use that because, hey, the market knows that,

524
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 1: you know, and and if the market knows that, isn't

525
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 1: that arty sort of discounting in price. I mean, I

526
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 1: get to hear anybody say, you know, come out being

527
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 1: very positive on the EPP, And I'm not saying I

528
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 1: don't want the listeners to go out and pile into

529
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 1: em because that there is risk doing that. It's part

530
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 1: of our portfolio, it's not an entire portfolio. I think

531
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:40,000
Speaker 1: if the way we're thinking about investing in this world

532
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: is that, hey, if I'm gonna put something that's gonna

533
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:44,479
Speaker 1: do well in a risk on environment, well I need

534
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 1: to add something that's gonna do well in a risk

535
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 1: of environment, because nobody's got the kind of conviction. I

536
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 1: would just kind of bring out the point that, you know,

537
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 1: we do maybe have some type of model, you know,

538
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 1: looking at the China, I mean, you know, maybe they

539
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,959
Speaker 1: weren't transparent, uh in the beginning, but they're coming out

540
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 1: of this and I think it's a framework that might

541
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:04,239
Speaker 1: work in the US. Is that as they bring their

542
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 1: comedy back online, people are going back to work, but

543
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 1: they're slower to go into the leisure parts of their

544
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 1: and their daily activity. So I think that's going to

545
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 1: be the model that we're going to follow in the US.

546
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 1: So what kind of you know, so you're playing into

547
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 1: sovereign dett right around the world, and I do wonder

548
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 1: we do know global central banks, Man, they'll do what

549
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 1: they need to to make sure they prop up their

550
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 1: economies right now, right so it's coming from all of

551
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 1: the central bankers are the majority of them around the globe.

552
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 1: What are the bets you want to make? What are

553
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 1: the bets that you feel most confident? Um, because I

554
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 1: look at your portfolio, which you guys have actually done

555
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 1: pretty pretty well in the last UM one year or so,

556
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 1: I think up nine percent, putting you in the percentile.

557
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 1: But it's not been an easy market, you know, longer

558
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 1: term um for you. So what's what's the bets that

559
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 1: you feel that you can make with confidence right now? So, yeah,

560
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 1: you're right, and it's been it's been a rough march

561
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,280
Speaker 1: for us. I mean, we were position for the things

562
00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 1: that kind of played out in the fourth quarter, and

563
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 1: the world quickly changed that way changed, uh, very very quickly.

564
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 1: So I do think that the premise is interesting because

565
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 1: I think you define it very clearly. And so we're

566
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 1: in a war. Obviously, things around the virus, and maybe

567
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 1: the virus isn't gonna get worse. But then we have

568
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 1: the policymakers, the fiscal policy makers, the monetary policymakers. They've

569
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 1: taken this montra. We're gonna do whatever it takes. So

570
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 1: this is dragging modeled in twelve. They've all adopted it,

571
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 1: so they're gonna get tested. So this is why we're

572
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 1: going to continue to see different amounts of fiscal stimulus,

573
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 1: different monetary policy. So you know that's going to create

574
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 1: some stability, and then ultimately you know we're gonna have

575
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:47,239
Speaker 1: to see some progress on the medical front, so you know,

576
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 1: I'm not sure. To be honest, it's a high conviction

577
00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 1: type world. Right now we are positioned. But what we're

578
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 1: also doing is it extending our time horizon because there

579
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 1: isn't clarity what's going to happen a month, a quarter

580
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 1: from now. But you know if a year from now,

581
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 1: two years, if you have that ability to have that

582
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 1: sort of time frame, I can come up with a

583
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:10,240
Speaker 1: more constructive sort of view because I think this stimulus

584
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 1: could actually hit at a time that maybe we're starting

585
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 1: to see, uh, some improvement you know around the buyers,

586
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,960
Speaker 1: around the uptick in economic activity, and I could set

587
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 1: a decent backdrop for risk assets. But again that's getting

588
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 1: the timing rights to the hard part. Big question. We

589
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:28,880
Speaker 1: only have about thirty seconds for you to answer it, Jack,

590
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 1: But oil, I mean that obviously has had partially to

591
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 1: do with the pandemic, but largely outside of it. How

592
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 1: does that figure into your thesis here? So you're right,

593
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,719
Speaker 1: I think it's mostly I say eighty percent driven by

594
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:44,640
Speaker 1: demand side, driven by you know that the pandemic, there's

595
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 1: a supply issue, has a leverage the hedge fund guys

596
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 1: that uh, the c K commoding trading advisors. They're still

597
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 1: really long oil contracts, so you know, they're they can't

598
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:58,000
Speaker 1: take this much pain, so they're undwinding these things. So yeah,

599
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 1: it's um, it's just reflective of a week demand when

600
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 1: you let the flow down a global growth. All right,

601
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 1: we're gonna leave it there. Thank you so much, Jack McIntyre,

602
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 1: he is the I want to make sure I get

603
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:12,279
Speaker 1: your tile to write. Global Fixing Income portfolio manager for

604
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 1: Brandywine Global Investment Management, joining us on the phone from Philadelphia.

605
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. You can subscribe

606
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:22,439
Speaker 1: to the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com.

607
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 1: You can also listen to our radio show every weekday

608
00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:27,439
Speaker 1: at two pm Eastern only on Bloomberg Radio