WEBVTT - Tesla Runs on Faith, Exxon on Discipline

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanabek. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>You can also listen to our radio show at two

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. There's a lot of things

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<v Speaker 1>going on, and in particular we are seeing Tim a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of individuals institutions working with sectors and segments of

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<v Speaker 1>the US to encourage vaccine participation. And our next guest

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<v Speaker 1>definitely has some thoughts on that. Yeah. Red Buttle is

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<v Speaker 1>the founder of Public Private Strategies, also senior Fellow at

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<v Speaker 1>the Aspen Institute. Joining us on the phone from Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>d C. Rehet Caroline, I talk a lot about how

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<v Speaker 1>well when when it comes to COVID, We talk a

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<v Speaker 1>lot about everything when it comes to code. But two

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<v Speaker 1>things that I've been been focused on as the US

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<v Speaker 1>vaccination effort has has done really well. One is how

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<v Speaker 1>do we get you know, I keep referring it to

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<v Speaker 1>it as like the last mile, right, how do we

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<v Speaker 1>get those people vaccinated who aren't being proactive about making appointments?

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<v Speaker 1>And then also what does it look like if we

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<v Speaker 1>do have to get that booster shot And this is

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<v Speaker 1>the type of thing that we have to do every

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<v Speaker 1>single year to prevent little outbreaks of of the pandemic.

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<v Speaker 1>So what is the right way for for companies to

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<v Speaker 1>approach this, like is this the flu shot? Like we

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<v Speaker 1>get at work now? Well, first of all, thank you

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<v Speaker 1>so much for having me, and you write employers of

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<v Speaker 1>all sizes have a role to play. You know, we've

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<v Speaker 1>specifically launched network focused on small businesses. And what we

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<v Speaker 1>know from research is that you know, as you're talking

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<v Speaker 1>about vaccine, hesitant populations, messengers or everything, and so really

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<v Speaker 1>you know, this is about meeting the consumer where it's at.

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<v Speaker 1>In this case, it's about meeting each American where it's at.

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<v Speaker 1>And we really think that employers and in particular small

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<v Speaker 1>businesses have a role as a trusted institution and really

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<v Speaker 1>encouraging people to get their COVID facting. Well, tell us

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<v Speaker 1>specifically about this initiatives initiative that you got out of

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<v Speaker 1>way right right, Excuse me to reimagine main Street initiative.

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<v Speaker 1>What is it about? What are you looking to do

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<v Speaker 1>and what is it that's holding small businesses, particularly those

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<v Speaker 1>maybe of color of you know, minority small businesses that

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<v Speaker 1>maybe are preventing workers from getting the vaccine. Is it

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<v Speaker 1>that they don't want to or that it's just difficult

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<v Speaker 1>for them to get the time to do it. Absolutely,

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<v Speaker 1>So we launched this initiative about a year ago when

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<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen broke out to really make sure that small

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<v Speaker 1>business owners and in particular business owners of color, were

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<v Speaker 1>at the center of our recovery. And so we've been

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<v Speaker 1>working on research and ultimaker advocacy, and now we've added

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<v Speaker 1>a new leg to this campaign, which is really using

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<v Speaker 1>small employers as a vehicle to get information out because

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<v Speaker 1>small business owners are some of the most trusted institutions

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<v Speaker 1>in our country. They rank number two according to Gallop

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<v Speaker 1>and quite frankly, the people who work for them trust them.

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<v Speaker 1>And as you talked about, you know, particularly in communities

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<v Speaker 1>of color, a lot of folks are unsure about the vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>Some of that is because of deep racism in our country,

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<v Speaker 1>and rightfully so, what we know just how important this

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine is to not only our public health but getting

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<v Speaker 1>our economy open again. And it's not uncommon. Right to

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<v Speaker 1>see employers, We've seen employers do unique stuff around the

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<v Speaker 1>food vaccine um in this case, you know, for this

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<v Speaker 1>first time effort, it's really important because these main street

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<v Speaker 1>businesses engaged in these communities, their workers turn to them,

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<v Speaker 1>their communities, uh look and see you know what what

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<v Speaker 1>small business owners have to say about issues, and so

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<v Speaker 1>we think they have the search and so in addition

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<v Speaker 1>to providing education tools and resources, we've launched out Vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>Leaders Pledge program for business owners to sign up, and

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<v Speaker 1>we've curtailed information and resources to small business owners who

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<v Speaker 1>want to talk to their employees and their communities about

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<v Speaker 1>why this is important to not only getting public health BacT,

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<v Speaker 1>but quite frankly to getting our economy will reopen. I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's one thing for for people to trust their

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<v Speaker 1>employer and understand that the vaccine is the right thing

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<v Speaker 1>to do, but it's an entirely different thing to get

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<v Speaker 1>on their phone schedule that appointment at a time that

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<v Speaker 1>they're not at work, and then also schedule that that

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<v Speaker 1>follow up appointment as well. So how do you make

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<v Speaker 1>it as easy as possible for somebody who hasn't able

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<v Speaker 1>to get a vaccine yet to do it? Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's where we see you know, this is this

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<v Speaker 1>role of the employer coming in and so we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>it employers doing really neat things. There's an amazing hair

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<v Speaker 1>salon and Ohio is working to actually what could their

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<v Speaker 1>customers for vaccine apointments when they come into this blond

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<v Speaker 1>That's one example of an above and beyond effort. But

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<v Speaker 1>as an employer, it's also really important to be able

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<v Speaker 1>to create that space for your employees to get educated,

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<v Speaker 1>but also letting them know that maybe you're going to

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<v Speaker 1>give them paid time off when they're going to get

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<v Speaker 1>their vaccine and give them paid time off to re

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<v Speaker 1>cover so they don't feel the pressure of necessarily having

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<v Speaker 1>to this work and the burden that comes with that

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<v Speaker 1>as an exper incentive to make sure that they get vaccinated. Hey, Red,

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<v Speaker 1>how big of a problem do you think it is

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<v Speaker 1>among this small business community in terms of their workers

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<v Speaker 1>or their business owners not going out and getting the

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine specifically, or is it more that you're just thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about the communities around them. I think it's two reasons.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, One is because of this trusted status that

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<v Speaker 1>I'm talking about. You know, we're living in an interesting

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<v Speaker 1>time where a lot of people don't don't necessarily trust media,

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<v Speaker 1>they don't trust the government, but they do trust their employers.

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<v Speaker 1>In particular, they trust small business, So we think they're important.

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<v Speaker 1>But also half of Americans work for small business owners,

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<v Speaker 1>and actually about a hundred million Americans financial lives in

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<v Speaker 1>some cases depend on a small business. So they are

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<v Speaker 1>a really important channel for getting information out and touching

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<v Speaker 1>touching individuals. And so that's really why we've chosen this

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<v Speaker 1>channel in particular as a way to get information out.

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<v Speaker 1>How do you think about areas outside of the US.

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<v Speaker 1>That was the other thing that Caroline I talked about

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<v Speaker 1>all the time is how this the pandemic is is. Look,

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<v Speaker 1>we didn't we have not done a great job in

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<v Speaker 1>the United States overall, but when it comes to vaccinations,

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<v Speaker 1>we are certainly leading the world right now. But it's

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<v Speaker 1>not the same story in the vast majority of the world. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>before I worked outside government, I actually had the publice

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<v Speaker 1>of serving at the Department of Helping Human Services, and

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<v Speaker 1>I did a lot of work on E Bowla And

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<v Speaker 1>you know, early on, one of the reasons we responded

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<v Speaker 1>so quickly to the E Bowla prominent applicised because we

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<v Speaker 1>knew that our world is in our connected it right,

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<v Speaker 1>and that is so important for especially business today. And so,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, this is a global issue and you know

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<v Speaker 1>why we're making great progress here in the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm encouraged by the Biden Administration's efforts to rejoin KOVAC,

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<v Speaker 1>to rejoin the World Health Organization because this is really

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<v Speaker 1>a global problem and it doesn't stop. You know, a

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<v Speaker 1>virus like this, uh sees no boarders, no boundaries, right,

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<v Speaker 1>and so we really have to think about a global approach.

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<v Speaker 1>And so right now we're focused on you know, getting

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<v Speaker 1>everyone vaccinated at home, and then at the same time,

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<v Speaker 1>because we can walk and you know, to publicum, at

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<v Speaker 1>the same time, we're working on building our credibility back

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<v Speaker 1>across the world. Helped virus as well. Well. Listen, it's

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<v Speaker 1>a reminder of small businesses. They play a crucial role

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<v Speaker 1>in communities. That's where conversations happen and you do think about,

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<v Speaker 1>especially something like the vaccine getting a message out, how

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<v Speaker 1>productive that can be those small business owners, in particular

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<v Speaker 1>Red Bottle, Thank you so much. Founder of Public Private Strategies.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a consulting firm. He's also senior fellow at the

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<v Speaker 1>Aspen Institute. Re Joining us on the phone from Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>d C. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser

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<v Speaker 1>from Bloomberg Radio. Writing for Bloomberg Business Week this week

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg opinion columnist Liam Denning, who takes a look at

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<v Speaker 1>the future of energy from really tim management perspective. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a great business school case study. It's looking at Elon

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<v Speaker 1>Musk of course, the see of Tesla and Darren Woods,

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<v Speaker 1>his counterpart at ex On Mobile and safe to say,

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<v Speaker 1>I gotta tell you, I had to actually look up

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<v Speaker 1>the name of ex On Mobile CEO because I didn't

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<v Speaker 1>remember that that's who was He should be tweeting more

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<v Speaker 1>about dog coin maybe or maybe not, or just worrying

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<v Speaker 1>about the future of energy anyway. This story is the

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<v Speaker 1>remarks for the upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week. And

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<v Speaker 1>joining us with more Bloomberg Business Week gator Joe Weber

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<v Speaker 1>on the access Line in Brooklyn and Bloomberg Opinion Energy,

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<v Speaker 1>Mining and commodities columnist Liam Denning. He's on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>in New York, Joe. Let's start with you. Though. I

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<v Speaker 1>love this. It really is a case study of two

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<v Speaker 1>very different CEOs. Yeah, and I had the same reaction

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<v Speaker 1>when I was reading it, like Darren who and um,

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<v Speaker 1>for the most part, investors have kind of felt the

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<v Speaker 1>same way. I think. But but I think, um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the reasons that we are really into this

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<v Speaker 1>is like, look like earning earning season upon us and

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<v Speaker 1>Tesla versus x On. Can you like imagine two different

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<v Speaker 1>corporate stories or leadership styles. And what I thought, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>Liam did a really good job of hitting on was like,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, for the most part, one is just really

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<v Speaker 1>ran on faith and obviously that's more Tesla, while Exxon

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<v Speaker 1>has been known for this real dogged nous on on numbers,

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<v Speaker 1>and yet one is having a completely different version of

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<v Speaker 1>reality than the other over the past long haul and

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<v Speaker 1>and this year to date, which I'm sure we'll talk about,

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<v Speaker 1>has been a little bit different. But but Lea, how

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<v Speaker 1>did you ultimately settle on putting these two leaders in

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<v Speaker 1>the spotlight as sort of opposite forces, if you will.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's just because we're a really interesting moment

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<v Speaker 1>for both of them. So you remember last year UM

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<v Speaker 1>xn's market cap shut up like a fact or seven

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<v Speaker 1>went way past x UM and you know, as you

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<v Speaker 1>may recall, there are a flurry of stories about that

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<v Speaker 1>and how it symbolized the transition from you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>oil age to the electric age and that sort of thing.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think it's it's interesting because the way I

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<v Speaker 1>think about it is, you know, if you go back

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<v Speaker 1>a few years, Exon was the most valuable company in

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<v Speaker 1>the world. It could kind of do no wrong UM

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<v Speaker 1>and investors had this kind of rock solid belief in it.

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<v Speaker 1>And here we are, you know, just a few short

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<v Speaker 1>years later in early UM. Exon is you know, it's

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<v Speaker 1>been through some traveling times, it's run pretty much the

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<v Speaker 1>same as it always has been, but it's lost that

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<v Speaker 1>kind of belief from investors, where Tesla, you know, despite

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<v Speaker 1>everything it does that you think would shake belief, UM

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<v Speaker 1>just has this kind of fanatical devotion on the part

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<v Speaker 1>of investors. So I just always an interesting way of

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<v Speaker 1>looking at these two companies opposite ends of the energy business.

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<v Speaker 1>It's really interesting and I thought, man, this would be

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<v Speaker 1>grea to like just sit down with a bunch of

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<v Speaker 1>people like we are doing now and just talk about

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<v Speaker 1>it like you do. Wonder because both liam are optimistic

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<v Speaker 1>long term and how can that be possible? Can it

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<v Speaker 1>be possible that they both have at least in the

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<v Speaker 1>somewhat longer term, you know, optimistic futures or is that impossible?

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's impossible. You know, there is one viewpoint

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<v Speaker 1>that says, well, look, the energy transition will take time,

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<v Speaker 1>and these both of these companies can certainly make money

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<v Speaker 1>for some period. But I think when you look at

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<v Speaker 1>their core belief systems, they're just very different. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Bloomberg an e f Our own in house forecasters.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, they're pretty bullish on electric vehicles, but even

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<v Speaker 1>they see it as taking a little while, um, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>into the middle of the thirties to see like serious

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<v Speaker 1>market penetration. Elon must sees it happening much quicker than that.

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<v Speaker 1>You look at Excel mogul Um, they're more in the

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<v Speaker 1>it will take time, camp we can develop new businesses

0:10:57.679 --> 0:11:02.800
<v Speaker 1>that sort of thing. I just think that the the

0:11:01.920 --> 0:11:06.720
<v Speaker 1>the sheer aggressiveness of each view makes them incompatible. You know,

0:11:06.800 --> 0:11:08.439
<v Speaker 1>one of one of these is going to work out

0:11:08.480 --> 0:11:10.680
<v Speaker 1>to be true, but not both. It does seem like

0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:13.280
<v Speaker 1>the money right now is on Tesla, though it's it's

0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:16.440
<v Speaker 1>hard to imagine a world where fossil fuels in a

0:11:16.480 --> 0:11:21.679
<v Speaker 1>company that really is focused on fossil fuels ends up

0:11:21.800 --> 0:11:26.280
<v Speaker 1>being the one that survives, right. I think longer term,

0:11:26.320 --> 0:11:30.400
<v Speaker 1>for you know, fossil fuels are going to peak and

0:11:30.559 --> 0:11:34.360
<v Speaker 1>decline absolutely. Um. I think it's a question of degree.

0:11:34.960 --> 0:11:39.320
<v Speaker 1>You know, um Exon has suffered mainly because it made

0:11:39.360 --> 0:11:43.440
<v Speaker 1>some really bad tactical errors. Um you know, stretching all

0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:45.319
<v Speaker 1>the way back to about a decade ago when it

0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:49.120
<v Speaker 1>brought this very expensive gas business where it ended up

0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:50.960
<v Speaker 1>writing off quite a lot of it at the end

0:11:51.000 --> 0:11:55.080
<v Speaker 1>of last year, and there have been other mistakes I

0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:59.040
<v Speaker 1>think where it gets a little unbelievable, as if you

0:11:59.040 --> 0:12:01.679
<v Speaker 1>look at Tesla. I mean, clearly there is a lot

0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:04.319
<v Speaker 1>of money flowing into clean tech right now and there

0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:08.360
<v Speaker 1>is a bright future for that business. But you know,

0:12:08.480 --> 0:12:11.160
<v Speaker 1>you look at Tesla, It's made about billion dollars of

0:12:11.240 --> 0:12:14.000
<v Speaker 1>profit over the last six quarters. It's valued at like

0:12:14.080 --> 0:12:18.079
<v Speaker 1>seven billion dollars. Um has the market got a bit

0:12:18.120 --> 0:12:22.760
<v Speaker 1>ahead of itself on Tesla. I would say, yes, well

0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:26.120
<v Speaker 1>that kind of speaks to you know, how Excen specifically

0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:29.640
<v Speaker 1>has performed this year year today, uh Liam and and

0:12:29.679 --> 0:12:32.679
<v Speaker 1>that number actually really jumped out to me. Um So

0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:35.920
<v Speaker 1>talk about like why why an x and might be

0:12:35.960 --> 0:12:38.520
<v Speaker 1>able to continue to performing in the shorter term while

0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:40.920
<v Speaker 1>while as in the long run we can might still

0:12:41.000 --> 0:12:44.040
<v Speaker 1>the market might be right to be bullish on Tesla. Yeah,

0:12:44.080 --> 0:12:46.000
<v Speaker 1>I think in the short term what Excen is doing,

0:12:46.280 --> 0:12:48.160
<v Speaker 1>it's a couple of things. One is that it's just

0:12:48.240 --> 0:12:50.840
<v Speaker 1>at the oil price has recovered a bit from the

0:12:50.960 --> 0:12:53.200
<v Speaker 1>from the COVID pandemic, so that's kind of lifted all

0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:56.160
<v Speaker 1>oil companies. I think the other thing is excellent has

0:12:57.000 --> 0:13:00.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's excell was kind of aloof for the

0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:02.280
<v Speaker 1>longest time. I mean, I think I mentioned in the

0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:06.319
<v Speaker 1>piece that Darren Wood's made made headlines just for showing

0:13:06.400 --> 0:13:12.320
<v Speaker 1>up on an earning cool uh And and they've actually

0:13:12.320 --> 0:13:14.680
<v Speaker 1>had to listen, you know, they actually had activists show

0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:17.080
<v Speaker 1>up and had to engage with them. And so they have,

0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:21.720
<v Speaker 1>They've adjusted their stance, They've they've reigned in spending, they've

0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:24.920
<v Speaker 1>started acknowledging that there is actually an energy transition and

0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:29.200
<v Speaker 1>there there potentially going to start businesses. But look at that.

0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:32.800
<v Speaker 1>So they're they're coming back, partly because the all price

0:13:32.880 --> 0:13:35.480
<v Speaker 1>is coming back, but partly because they seem to have

0:13:35.559 --> 0:13:41.200
<v Speaker 1>acknowledged their past mistakes with Tesla. There is there is,

0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:43.960
<v Speaker 1>there is a core story of the energy transition, and

0:13:44.000 --> 0:13:47.480
<v Speaker 1>that's that's right, of course, but it's also a function

0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:49.520
<v Speaker 1>of the fact that we are we are in a

0:13:49.640 --> 0:13:52.400
<v Speaker 1>moment in markets where that kind of long term vision

0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:55.959
<v Speaker 1>thing is meeting you know, very low interest rates and

0:13:56.320 --> 0:13:59.000
<v Speaker 1>you do get some fantastic valuations. Well, we're definitely at

0:13:59.000 --> 0:14:01.120
<v Speaker 1>a point where there is this option this industry. There's

0:14:01.120 --> 0:14:03.199
<v Speaker 1>still a lot of cars on the road that are

0:14:03.600 --> 0:14:05.679
<v Speaker 1>you know, gas guzzlers. And at the same time, we

0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:08.240
<v Speaker 1>had the Tesla story over the weekend, you know, with

0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:10.920
<v Speaker 1>the car crash killing to no one appeared to be

0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:13.120
<v Speaker 1>appeared to be driving, And it's just a reminder that

0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:17.840
<v Speaker 1>it's not also an easy or just path forward without

0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:20.400
<v Speaker 1>some speed bumps along the way, certainly for something like Tesla.

0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:28.000
<v Speaker 1>Joe Weber at Liam Denning, thank you so much. This

0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:32.120
<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg quick

0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:36.600
<v Speaker 1>takes Tim Stinovik on Bloomberg Radio. Well, the developed world

0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:39.320
<v Speaker 1>taking care of the developing world when it comes to

0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:42.680
<v Speaker 1>COVID and vaccine distribution. That's something that just last month

0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:45.600
<v Speaker 1>we talked about with Nobelle Lloyd and Columbia University professor

0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:49.280
<v Speaker 1>Joseph Stiglet's check it out. The developing countries, particularly in

0:14:49.360 --> 0:14:55.960
<v Speaker 1>emerging markets, are not on tracked to have the kind

0:14:56.040 --> 0:14:58.720
<v Speaker 1>of UH light at the end of the tunnel that

0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:02.680
<v Speaker 1>we're beginning to see in the United States. We're getting vaccinated,

0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:07.480
<v Speaker 1>and there are many many countries, as we document around

0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:10.080
<v Speaker 1>the world that have not had a single vaccine. They

0:15:10.120 --> 0:15:13.240
<v Speaker 1>just can't get access. It's a gap in terms of

0:15:13.240 --> 0:15:15.600
<v Speaker 1>getting to that vaccine. We're certainly seeing that play out

0:15:15.600 --> 0:15:18.640
<v Speaker 1>around the world. Writing about vaccine inequality and his weekly column,

0:15:18.680 --> 0:15:22.120
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg New Economy editorial director Andy Brown, Andy with us

0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:24.760
<v Speaker 1>on the phone in New York City at our bureau

0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:26.680
<v Speaker 1>here in New York City. I should say so Andy

0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:29.440
<v Speaker 1>COmON in on this. This was something Joseph Stieglitz and

0:15:29.480 --> 0:15:31.960
<v Speaker 1>about Laurie, very passionate about a lot of other people,

0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:34.920
<v Speaker 1>and you just put it so eloquently in your weekly

0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:38.640
<v Speaker 1>column um tell us about this. Yeah, well, the world

0:15:38.680 --> 0:15:42.680
<v Speaker 1>the head of the World Health Organization described this vaccine

0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:48.400
<v Speaker 1>inequity as a catastrophic moral failure, and not just that

0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:53.760
<v Speaker 1>it makes absolutely no economic sense at all. Um. The

0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:58.080
<v Speaker 1>International Chamber of columns to the study which showed that, um,

0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:02.040
<v Speaker 1>that that vaccine national and basically rich countries hogging all

0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:04.520
<v Speaker 1>the vaccines is going to cost the global economy something

0:16:04.560 --> 0:16:08.080
<v Speaker 1>like nine point two trillion dollars, of which half the

0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:11.040
<v Speaker 1>is going to be borne by by rich country. They

0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:15.840
<v Speaker 1>lose because you know, they emerging markets that are grappling

0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:19.280
<v Speaker 1>with the virus on buying their advanced manufactually products like

0:16:19.480 --> 0:16:23.880
<v Speaker 1>planes and cars, but also they can't supply manufacturing parts.

0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:28.920
<v Speaker 1>And the crazy thing here is that funding these multilateral

0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:33.000
<v Speaker 1>efforts to vaccinate emerging economies is going to cost a

0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:36.000
<v Speaker 1>couple of billion bucks, right, so you know, overall in

0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:39.480
<v Speaker 1>the big picture, a drop in the bucket. Hey, Andy,

0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:42.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm talk a little bit about what what this bill

0:16:42.200 --> 0:16:44.560
<v Speaker 1>gates quote that you included quote, the the self interested

0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:47.320
<v Speaker 1>thing and the altruistic thing making sure core nations of

0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:49.720
<v Speaker 1>access to vaccines are one and the same. Why do

0:16:49.800 --> 0:16:55.200
<v Speaker 1>we have so much trouble seeing that it's it's it's

0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:57.480
<v Speaker 1>a really good question, you know. I mean, of course,

0:16:57.520 --> 0:17:02.480
<v Speaker 1>governments everywhere have an obligation to look after their own people. Um,

0:17:02.560 --> 0:17:04.200
<v Speaker 1>but you know, you've got you We've got to the

0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:08.800
<v Speaker 1>situation now where in the US and large parts of Europe,

0:17:09.080 --> 0:17:12.160
<v Speaker 1>we're well on our way now to hurt immunity, which

0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:15.399
<v Speaker 1>is generally calculated as around about seventy percent of the

0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:19.640
<v Speaker 1>population with some kind of of immunity at best. At

0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:21.880
<v Speaker 1>the end of this year, we're looking at no more

0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:25.840
<v Speaker 1>than emerging economies having inoculated no more than about twenty

0:17:26.560 --> 0:17:29.159
<v Speaker 1>one quarter of their population. And as Joe Stiglets you

0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:31.280
<v Speaker 1>just heard him say, you know, there's a whole bunch

0:17:31.320 --> 0:17:34.680
<v Speaker 1>of poor countries U a couple of dozen of them

0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:37.800
<v Speaker 1>where they haven't even gotten started, you know, and I

0:17:37.840 --> 0:17:40.879
<v Speaker 1>mean you you think of about this. There's there's a

0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:44.040
<v Speaker 1>stockpile right now in the US of twenty millions of

0:17:44.200 --> 0:17:47.359
<v Speaker 1>doses of astra zeneca. Apparently it's not even going to

0:17:47.560 --> 0:17:51.640
<v Speaker 1>factor into Joe Biden's or the Biden Administration's vaccine roll out.

0:17:52.040 --> 0:17:55.639
<v Speaker 1>You know, twenty million vaccines could could could vaccinate the

0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:59.720
<v Speaker 1>whole of Cameroon, you know, or angle. I mean, it

0:17:59.840 --> 0:18:01.600
<v Speaker 1>just it which seemed to me to be such an

0:18:01.640 --> 0:18:05.359
<v Speaker 1>easy win for advancing, particularly the United States right now,

0:18:05.359 --> 0:18:09.719
<v Speaker 1>to just lead a global campaign to inoculate the world.

0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:11.639
<v Speaker 1>I mean, of course it would be the morally the

0:18:11.720 --> 0:18:14.560
<v Speaker 1>right thing to do. Um And you know, as they say,

0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:17.800
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's just a no brain from from an

0:18:17.800 --> 0:18:20.720
<v Speaker 1>economic perspective. Well, you know, and in reading your column, Andy,

0:18:20.840 --> 0:18:22.800
<v Speaker 1>the thing is right if you don't have a moral

0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:25.400
<v Speaker 1>compass and you don't realize that it's the right thing

0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:27.720
<v Speaker 1>to do to take care of the developing world, you know,

0:18:27.880 --> 0:18:30.120
<v Speaker 1>just from an economic sense. And you mentioned this stat

0:18:30.160 --> 0:18:33.200
<v Speaker 1>at the top of our segment here that you say

0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:36.320
<v Speaker 1>that the Chamber of Commerce, the International Chamber of Congress,

0:18:36.359 --> 0:18:40.480
<v Speaker 1>concluding an unequal allocation of injections vaccine injections could deprive

0:18:40.520 --> 0:18:42.600
<v Speaker 1>the world economy of as much as nine point two

0:18:42.880 --> 0:18:45.000
<v Speaker 1>trillion dollars. So even if you don't think it's the

0:18:45.119 --> 0:18:47.359
<v Speaker 1>right thing to do, you've got to at some point

0:18:47.480 --> 0:18:51.760
<v Speaker 1>logically understand that there is a huge economic cost, continued

0:18:51.800 --> 0:18:54.720
<v Speaker 1>cost if we don't get this right. Yeah, and then

0:18:54.720 --> 0:18:58.479
<v Speaker 1>the other tragedy is, you know, with this this scare

0:18:58.560 --> 0:19:01.920
<v Speaker 1>of a blood blood clock arising from Astras Naca R

0:19:02.000 --> 0:19:05.320
<v Speaker 1>Now J and J. You know, in America, it's basically

0:19:05.359 --> 0:19:07.760
<v Speaker 1>a bit of a speed bump, right, I mean, J

0:19:07.920 --> 0:19:10.440
<v Speaker 1>and J is about five percent, I think of all

0:19:10.440 --> 0:19:12.960
<v Speaker 1>the vaccines that are being sort of pushed into arms

0:19:13.400 --> 0:19:17.960
<v Speaker 1>around the country. But this, this, this is in Africa.

0:19:18.280 --> 0:19:21.240
<v Speaker 1>The news that that J and J was being suspended

0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:24.359
<v Speaker 1>in the US was absolutely devastating. I mean, you know,

0:19:24.400 --> 0:19:28.000
<v Speaker 1>there's already a huge amount of vaccine hesitancy in Africa

0:19:28.000 --> 0:19:30.919
<v Speaker 1>for all kinds of complicated reasons. You know, partly because

0:19:31.520 --> 0:19:33.560
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people in Africa don't believe the Western

0:19:33.600 --> 0:19:36.840
<v Speaker 1>pharmaceutical companies have their own best interests in hot at

0:19:36.880 --> 0:19:39.800
<v Speaker 1>hot and you know, in country after country you're seeing

0:19:39.880 --> 0:19:43.399
<v Speaker 1>that this news is now sort of health authority is

0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:46.320
<v Speaker 1>a persuading population's got to get vaccinated. And this is

0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:48.720
<v Speaker 1>just set these efforts all the way back to the

0:19:48.800 --> 0:19:52.080
<v Speaker 1>square one. So, Andy, how do you envision this ending.

0:19:52.200 --> 0:19:55.600
<v Speaker 1>Do we get to a point where the entire world

0:19:55.640 --> 0:19:59.240
<v Speaker 1>gets inoculated and in a reasonable time frame, or or

0:19:59.280 --> 0:20:02.919
<v Speaker 1>do we have pocket of areas of the of the world,

0:20:03.400 --> 0:20:06.200
<v Speaker 1>like the United States that are somewhat vaccinated, even those

0:20:06.240 --> 0:20:07.760
<v Speaker 1>you point out we live in a world with chorus

0:20:07.840 --> 0:20:11.000
<v Speaker 1>borders and that kind of doesn't really matter. Well, I

0:20:11.040 --> 0:20:15.280
<v Speaker 1>hope not, because, um, you know, the old cliche, until

0:20:15.440 --> 0:20:19.040
<v Speaker 1>everybody is safe, nobody is safe. And and the you know,

0:20:19.080 --> 0:20:23.800
<v Speaker 1>there's a very realistic scenario where they do emerging economies

0:20:23.800 --> 0:20:25.640
<v Speaker 1>don't get back to the eightage, you're going to start

0:20:25.640 --> 0:20:28.240
<v Speaker 1>to get of course, that gives that office an opportunity

0:20:28.280 --> 0:20:34.399
<v Speaker 1>for variants to take hold, um, to overwhelm the existing vaccines. Um,

0:20:34.440 --> 0:20:36.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, and then you see that, you see, you'll

0:20:36.160 --> 0:20:38.920
<v Speaker 1>see the pandemic roaring back, and of course then we'll

0:20:38.920 --> 0:20:41.720
<v Speaker 1>be back again in another economic crisis. I mean, hence

0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:46.080
<v Speaker 1>Bill Gates is contention that the self interested thing and

0:20:46.160 --> 0:20:51.080
<v Speaker 1>the altruistic thing one and the same. Yeah, And you know, listen,

0:20:51.119 --> 0:20:53.440
<v Speaker 1>we have talked so much about the importance of Astra

0:20:53.560 --> 0:20:56.600
<v Speaker 1>Zeneca's vaccine, Jay and Jay's vaccine and really being able

0:20:56.640 --> 0:20:59.800
<v Speaker 1>to inoculate the world, and that has definitely been a

0:21:00.040 --> 0:21:03.480
<v Speaker 1>major major setback. Andy, Thank you so much, uh Andy Brown,

0:21:03.560 --> 0:21:06.359
<v Speaker 1>he's editorial director of Bloomberg New Economy. On the phone

0:21:06.359 --> 0:21:08.120
<v Speaker 1>in our New York City bureau. But this is gonna

0:21:08.119 --> 0:21:10.919
<v Speaker 1>be a big thing. I mean, jose Stieglitz and many others,

0:21:11.119 --> 0:21:14.879
<v Speaker 1>as Andy referenced, have talked about the importance that the

0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:17.480
<v Speaker 1>virus knows no borders, and if we don't take care

0:21:17.520 --> 0:21:20.399
<v Speaker 1>of the world at large, that's going to be a problem,

0:21:20.440 --> 0:21:22.359
<v Speaker 1>and it's going to make COVID stay with us much longer.

0:21:22.400 --> 0:21:24.239
<v Speaker 1>Not only will it make COVID stay with us, a

0:21:24.280 --> 0:21:26.800
<v Speaker 1>lot more lives will be lost, which is incredibly unfortunate.

0:21:26.880 --> 0:21:29.840
<v Speaker 1>And what we see also is this uneven recovery around

0:21:29.840 --> 0:21:32.480
<v Speaker 1>the world where we won't get fully back to normal.

0:21:32.600 --> 0:21:34.800
<v Speaker 1>If there are areas of the world where there could

0:21:34.880 --> 0:21:39.120
<v Speaker 1>be uh, mute mutations forming right right, exactly, all right, well,

0:21:39.119 --> 0:21:41.600
<v Speaker 1>certainly something will continue. Watch check out Andy's columns and

0:21:41.680 --> 0:21:45.840
<v Speaker 1>check out at new Econ Forum. This is Bloomberg Business

0:21:45.840 --> 0:21:49.800
<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Masser from Bloomberg Radio, one of the

0:21:49.880 --> 0:21:54.960
<v Speaker 1>high flyers. Certainly of different tone this year, uh and

0:21:55.000 --> 0:21:58.800
<v Speaker 1>in particular today down about seven, we're talking about Peloton,

0:21:59.160 --> 0:22:02.200
<v Speaker 1>the stock selling of tim after US regulators warn consumers

0:22:02.240 --> 0:22:06.400
<v Speaker 1>to stop using the exercise equipment maker's tread plus machine

0:22:06.440 --> 0:22:08.600
<v Speaker 1>if they are young, children, are pets at home. I mean.

0:22:08.680 --> 0:22:11.920
<v Speaker 1>Ben Side is technology and media analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence

0:22:11.920 --> 0:22:14.520
<v Speaker 1>and joins us on the phone from New York City.

0:22:14.720 --> 0:22:16.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean, thanks for joining us about this, Um, you

0:22:17.000 --> 0:22:21.040
<v Speaker 1>have a reaction to this latest news from Peloton, essentially saying,

0:22:21.240 --> 0:22:25.320
<v Speaker 1>um that the regulator warning on the tread plus that's

0:22:25.359 --> 0:22:27.639
<v Speaker 1>this machine that Carol was talking about, may not actually

0:22:27.680 --> 0:22:31.560
<v Speaker 1>hurt the company's growth. Why not? Thanks for having me, Yes, So,

0:22:31.760 --> 0:22:34.400
<v Speaker 1>I mean when we look at the you know, the

0:22:34.480 --> 0:22:38.160
<v Speaker 1>hardware mix that Peloton have, over ninety percent of sales

0:22:38.160 --> 0:22:41.440
<v Speaker 1>are still the bike, not so much the treadmill or

0:22:41.520 --> 0:22:44.679
<v Speaker 1>the treadmill plus. So in the very new term, it

0:22:44.680 --> 0:22:47.960
<v Speaker 1>doesn't look to us like this will have an impact.

0:22:48.840 --> 0:22:51.560
<v Speaker 1>But on the other side, when we uh, you know,

0:22:51.560 --> 0:22:55.280
<v Speaker 1>look at dellegation standpoint, our allegation analyst Holy Film actually

0:22:55.480 --> 0:23:00.600
<v Speaker 1>put on this morning discussing how an involuntary recall um

0:23:00.920 --> 0:23:04.520
<v Speaker 1>for the treade Plass product is unlikely. So the really

0:23:04.600 --> 0:23:06.560
<v Speaker 1>litters you know, at this point of time, unlikely for

0:23:06.600 --> 0:23:09.359
<v Speaker 1>them to force polot On to stop, you know, sending

0:23:09.400 --> 0:23:11.120
<v Speaker 1>this products. So that's why we think for the new

0:23:11.280 --> 0:23:13.600
<v Speaker 1>term the impact could be minimal. What about though, on

0:23:13.600 --> 0:23:15.640
<v Speaker 1>the brand, how much of this is important in terms

0:23:15.680 --> 0:23:19.960
<v Speaker 1>of how they react to this particular thing. Uh, in

0:23:20.000 --> 0:23:23.919
<v Speaker 1>this particular problem or potential problem. It's obviously a problem

0:23:23.960 --> 0:23:26.320
<v Speaker 1>if it's happening, right, But I do wonder how the

0:23:26.320 --> 0:23:29.320
<v Speaker 1>company addresses it, how that could ultimately affect their their

0:23:29.359 --> 0:23:33.399
<v Speaker 1>future consumer base or future growth. Absolute that's a question

0:23:33.440 --> 0:23:36.080
<v Speaker 1>because their focus for this year was also the treadmill,

0:23:36.160 --> 0:23:38.200
<v Speaker 1>because when you look at the marketing spending the last

0:23:38.200 --> 0:23:40.639
<v Speaker 1>few years was mostly for the bike, but they discussed,

0:23:41.000 --> 0:23:43.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, on their earning goals how the treadmill. They're

0:23:43.480 --> 0:23:45.000
<v Speaker 1>going to shift a lot of the marketing to the

0:23:45.000 --> 0:23:47.439
<v Speaker 1>treadmill to you know, to do stuss for the product.

0:23:47.520 --> 0:23:50.840
<v Speaker 1>And they also have um, the new lower price treadmill

0:23:50.920 --> 0:23:54.199
<v Speaker 1>coming up in May. So yes, I agree that for

0:23:54.280 --> 0:23:56.640
<v Speaker 1>the image of the brand, there could be an impact

0:23:56.680 --> 0:24:00.680
<v Speaker 1>if this incidents keep happening and more regular to uh,

0:24:00.720 --> 0:24:03.960
<v Speaker 1>you know join and you know a warrant about the product.

0:24:04.400 --> 0:24:06.040
<v Speaker 1>But on the other hand, what the company is doing

0:24:06.080 --> 0:24:08.919
<v Speaker 1>to answer the second part of your question, uh, you know,

0:24:09.280 --> 0:24:12.560
<v Speaker 1>the announced they're also updating their software to make it

0:24:12.600 --> 0:24:15.159
<v Speaker 1>a little bit harder for anyone who's not supposed to

0:24:15.240 --> 0:24:17.360
<v Speaker 1>use the treadmill to use it from it basically either

0:24:17.440 --> 0:24:20.199
<v Speaker 1>have a pass code or something for that sort, you know,

0:24:20.560 --> 0:24:23.960
<v Speaker 1>to to to improve safety for the product. Do you

0:24:24.000 --> 0:24:26.119
<v Speaker 1>see that being the solution here? Is it as simple

0:24:26.119 --> 0:24:27.920
<v Speaker 1>as that? Is it an update to the harderware or

0:24:28.000 --> 0:24:29.880
<v Speaker 1>is this the type of thing that the company get

0:24:29.920 --> 0:24:32.480
<v Speaker 1>to the point where they are actually asking people to

0:24:32.520 --> 0:24:37.160
<v Speaker 1>return this piece of equipment which is incredibly healty. Yes,

0:24:37.280 --> 0:24:39.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean it's it's it's still unclear at this stage

0:24:39.720 --> 0:24:43.919
<v Speaker 1>because we still are not clear on you know, is

0:24:43.960 --> 0:24:46.919
<v Speaker 1>this a peloton specific issue or is this you know,

0:24:46.960 --> 0:24:49.760
<v Speaker 1>an overall treadmill because as you know, treadmit a dangerous

0:24:49.760 --> 0:24:54.000
<v Speaker 1>for children and impacts. So it's not something that I think,

0:24:54.000 --> 0:24:57.359
<v Speaker 1>in opinion specific, But if the regulators find that, if

0:24:57.359 --> 0:25:00.240
<v Speaker 1>there is something in the hardware, then make it specific. Yes,

0:25:00.240 --> 0:25:02.639
<v Speaker 1>it could be a risk, but that's your question about

0:25:02.720 --> 0:25:06.280
<v Speaker 1>is this enough from the software standpoint? Um, again, if

0:25:06.760 --> 0:25:10.879
<v Speaker 1>it's overall a treadmill risk, I don't, I don't. I

0:25:10.880 --> 0:25:13.680
<v Speaker 1>think yes, this is could be enough. But if more

0:25:13.720 --> 0:25:16.480
<v Speaker 1>concerns give happening in the future, Um, I don't know.

0:25:16.520 --> 0:25:19.000
<v Speaker 1>If I re call is even a possibility and the

0:25:19.000 --> 0:25:21.840
<v Speaker 1>company says then not we're calling or stopping self for

0:25:21.960 --> 0:25:23.679
<v Speaker 1>the product, well, you know, I mean I mean, like

0:25:23.760 --> 0:25:26.080
<v Speaker 1>one thing I thought was interesting. I have a Peloton

0:25:26.200 --> 0:25:28.600
<v Speaker 1>bike and you've got to log in, And of course

0:25:28.600 --> 0:25:30.480
<v Speaker 1>a bike is not a treadmill. There are two different things.

0:25:30.760 --> 0:25:34.199
<v Speaker 1>But I'm trying to understand. I think if you have

0:25:34.320 --> 0:25:37.879
<v Speaker 1>everything turned off, unless you have a kid logging in, like,

0:25:38.040 --> 0:25:40.840
<v Speaker 1>you can't necessarily get things going. Again, I don't have

0:25:40.880 --> 0:25:43.000
<v Speaker 1>the treadmill, so I don't know logistically if you can

0:25:43.040 --> 0:25:45.439
<v Speaker 1>just hit a power on button, uh and it's on,

0:25:45.760 --> 0:25:48.480
<v Speaker 1>or if you just unplug it when you're done, do

0:25:48.520 --> 0:25:50.320
<v Speaker 1>you kind of do away with the problem. I mean,

0:25:50.320 --> 0:25:52.479
<v Speaker 1>treadmills have been around for a long time. Has this

0:25:52.560 --> 0:25:56.479
<v Speaker 1>been a chronic consumer problem or consumer you know, I'm

0:25:56.480 --> 0:26:00.320
<v Speaker 1>thinking of consumer reports. Have they reported on things like

0:26:00.359 --> 0:26:02.920
<v Speaker 1>this in the past with other treadmills, or like I said,

0:26:02.960 --> 0:26:07.000
<v Speaker 1>is there something Peloton specific? Yeah, I mean so for

0:26:07.040 --> 0:26:08.959
<v Speaker 1>the first part of the question, I think yes, that's

0:26:08.960 --> 0:26:11.560
<v Speaker 1>what the regreators are also suggesting, you know, just unplug it.

0:26:11.680 --> 0:26:13.679
<v Speaker 1>We're having a different room. That stopped the problem, I

0:26:13.680 --> 0:26:17.639
<v Speaker 1>mean obviously, but you know there is no pass code

0:26:17.880 --> 0:26:20.560
<v Speaker 1>um there. You still have to log you know, the

0:26:20.600 --> 0:26:22.879
<v Speaker 1>logan is automatic if you have your passports there. I

0:26:22.880 --> 0:26:26.160
<v Speaker 1>would as soon because I have had a bike there also,

0:26:26.280 --> 0:26:28.399
<v Speaker 1>so I remember it was just you know, just like

0:26:28.480 --> 0:26:30.640
<v Speaker 1>one batman shrying up. But maybe people live it on

0:26:30.720 --> 0:26:33.119
<v Speaker 1>and they go and come back. That's the risk. But

0:26:33.119 --> 0:26:34.760
<v Speaker 1>but you know, I agree with that your unplug it

0:26:34.960 --> 0:26:37.640
<v Speaker 1>or have more security measures that could be enough. We're

0:26:37.680 --> 0:26:41.040
<v Speaker 1>not sure the second part of your question for the recalls, Uh,

0:26:41.119 --> 0:26:43.320
<v Speaker 1>the note was put up. But again our relegation analysts

0:26:43.440 --> 0:26:48.159
<v Speaker 1>that there were eighty recalls since two thousand about the

0:26:48.200 --> 0:26:52.400
<v Speaker 1>accessory equipment. So they are relatively rare in this industry.

0:26:53.440 --> 0:26:56.240
<v Speaker 1>And so you know, unless we see significant amount of

0:26:56.320 --> 0:26:59.560
<v Speaker 1>this incident happened from Peloton specific, um, it just it

0:26:59.600 --> 0:27:03.600
<v Speaker 1>doesn't do like it's something um that happens often. I

0:27:03.640 --> 0:27:06.160
<v Speaker 1>mean very briefly, we only have fifteen seconds left. Other

0:27:06.200 --> 0:27:08.880
<v Speaker 1>types of hardware that you expect Peloton has in its

0:27:08.880 --> 0:27:12.280
<v Speaker 1>pipeline right now. Strength their focus is strength. When we

0:27:12.280 --> 0:27:14.520
<v Speaker 1>look at stront very quickly, two percent of their work

0:27:14.560 --> 0:27:18.119
<v Speaker 1>else work strength now it's thirteen percent, uh, lots of

0:27:18.200 --> 0:27:20.240
<v Speaker 1>last year and growing. So that is you know, that

0:27:20.400 --> 0:27:22.280
<v Speaker 1>is their focus. So that's like a tonal type of

0:27:22.320 --> 0:27:26.360
<v Speaker 1>machine tonal or like maybe even a roller at high

0:27:26.320 --> 0:27:30.600
<v Speaker 1>intensity or anything focused instrument. Listen, that's it. They're finding

0:27:30.680 --> 0:27:34.000
<v Speaker 1>different revenue streams. That's pretty pretty remarkable that they pivoted

0:27:34.040 --> 0:27:36.640
<v Speaker 1>off the bike into other things. Um, I mean, thank

0:27:36.680 --> 0:27:39.160
<v Speaker 1>you so much. A man Ben Side. He's Bloomberg Intelligence

0:27:39.160 --> 0:27:42.160
<v Speaker 1>technology analysts joining us on the phone in New York Cities.

0:27:42.200 --> 0:27:44.920
<v Speaker 1>We mentioned Peloton chairs just down about seven point two

0:27:44.920 --> 0:27:47.320
<v Speaker 1>percent as we speak. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week

0:27:47.359 --> 0:27:56.520
<v Speaker 1>and this this Boomberg Radio road morow the journal. Yeah,

0:27:56.560 --> 0:27:58.320
<v Speaker 1>but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no no

0:27:59.400 --> 0:28:04.359
<v Speaker 1>job all right, please, I'll do the right ravels. I

0:28:04.520 --> 0:28:19.800
<v Speaker 1>want to drive all just drive the question try. This

0:28:20.280 --> 0:28:23.520
<v Speaker 1>is the Drive to the Globe Commune. Thanks, we'll drying

0:28:23.640 --> 0:28:27.240
<v Speaker 1>us Dawn on Bloomberg Radio. A right, just about eleven

0:28:27.280 --> 0:28:30.919
<v Speaker 1>minutes uh left in today's trading session, getting ready to

0:28:30.960 --> 0:28:33.640
<v Speaker 1>wrap up the Monday trade. Our guest in the Drive

0:28:33.680 --> 0:28:36.240
<v Speaker 1>to the closes, Vance Howard back with us portfolio manager

0:28:36.280 --> 0:28:39.280
<v Speaker 1>and CEO at Howard Capital Management, based in Georgia. And

0:28:39.280 --> 0:28:42.320
<v Speaker 1>that's where we find in Roswell, Georgia to be exact,

0:28:42.360 --> 0:28:46.040
<v Speaker 1>three billion in assets under management. Vans. Nice to have

0:28:46.080 --> 0:28:49.000
<v Speaker 1>you back here on Bloomberg Radio. On Bloomberg Business Week.

0:28:49.320 --> 0:28:51.320
<v Speaker 1>When you look at the markets, you think they're a

0:28:51.360 --> 0:28:54.680
<v Speaker 1>bit overbought. However bought and what does that mean in

0:28:54.800 --> 0:28:58.080
<v Speaker 1>terms of a potential pullback? Well, when we say over

0:28:58.120 --> 0:29:00.000
<v Speaker 1>bought here, let's let's be real clear. On a very

0:29:00.240 --> 0:29:02.640
<v Speaker 1>very short term basis, meaning maybe one to two weeks,

0:29:02.680 --> 0:29:04.800
<v Speaker 1>we do not see this market turning over at all.

0:29:05.040 --> 0:29:07.280
<v Speaker 1>And you know, our proprietary indicated the h C on

0:29:07.320 --> 0:29:10.600
<v Speaker 1>biblines pausitive. So any pullback we see as a buying opportunity,

0:29:10.760 --> 0:29:12.640
<v Speaker 1>but on a technical basis, just for a one or two.

0:29:12.680 --> 0:29:18.040
<v Speaker 1>So you're all bullish. We're not only bullish, we're real bullish.

0:29:18.160 --> 0:29:20.960
<v Speaker 1>We have been since the second week of April last year.

0:29:21.280 --> 0:29:23.520
<v Speaker 1>So what derails this politionist Because we've spent a lot

0:29:23.520 --> 0:29:25.480
<v Speaker 1>of time talking today about the unequal distribution of the

0:29:25.560 --> 0:29:28.000
<v Speaker 1>vaccine and how just because the pandemic ends in the

0:29:28.080 --> 0:29:31.200
<v Speaker 1>United States doesn't mean that it's necessarily ending around the world.

0:29:31.200 --> 0:29:33.520
<v Speaker 1>And my concern they're apart from loss of life, is

0:29:33.560 --> 0:29:36.240
<v Speaker 1>of course economic activity. And so Timmy that you brought

0:29:36.280 --> 0:29:38.280
<v Speaker 1>that up to him, because Jess crossing the Bloomberg terminal

0:29:38.280 --> 0:29:40.480
<v Speaker 1>of the State Department to caution against travel to about

0:29:40.480 --> 0:29:43.479
<v Speaker 1>eight percent of countries evants. As to mention, I mean

0:29:43.520 --> 0:29:46.240
<v Speaker 1>a reminder that globally we're still in a tough place.

0:29:47.760 --> 0:29:49.440
<v Speaker 1>Globally we are, but you know, the you know, the

0:29:49.480 --> 0:29:51.920
<v Speaker 1>vaccine is getting distributed very very very well in the

0:29:52.000 --> 0:29:54.080
<v Speaker 1>United States. And by the way, that's a big testament

0:29:54.080 --> 0:29:56.560
<v Speaker 1>of corporate America. They've been a big catalyst behind that.

0:29:56.600 --> 0:29:58.440
<v Speaker 1>I think it's just been wonderful how fast they got

0:29:58.440 --> 0:30:00.840
<v Speaker 1>the vaccine out and how fast are getting it into people.

0:30:00.840 --> 0:30:02.920
<v Speaker 1>I've already had one shot. I'll be getting us next one,

0:30:03.160 --> 0:30:05.680
<v Speaker 1>the next shot, next week. But you know, and you

0:30:05.720 --> 0:30:07.760
<v Speaker 1>see France over there is really struggling up. I don't

0:30:07.800 --> 0:30:09.920
<v Speaker 1>think that the corporate America has been quite as buttoned

0:30:10.000 --> 0:30:11.280
<v Speaker 1>up for as strong as ours has, and I think

0:30:11.320 --> 0:30:12.840
<v Speaker 1>that's why they've only got three or four percent of

0:30:12.880 --> 0:30:15.600
<v Speaker 1>their people being vaccinated. So, you know, the US just

0:30:15.720 --> 0:30:18.200
<v Speaker 1>heads and tails above most other places. But that creates

0:30:18.200 --> 0:30:20.440
<v Speaker 1>some risks, and that creates some you know, and what

0:30:20.520 --> 0:30:23.040
<v Speaker 1>the CFO would say, tail winds, right, especially when it

0:30:23.040 --> 0:30:25.880
<v Speaker 1>comes to the way that the CFOs are thinking about

0:30:25.880 --> 0:30:28.560
<v Speaker 1>the economy. Because this is a global economy that we

0:30:28.600 --> 0:30:30.400
<v Speaker 1>live in, it doesn't matter if we're vaccinated here in

0:30:30.440 --> 0:30:32.520
<v Speaker 1>the US, if other countries aren't, they're not going to reopen.

0:30:32.520 --> 0:30:35.120
<v Speaker 1>And if our suppliers in the developing world can't provide

0:30:35.120 --> 0:30:38.280
<v Speaker 1>components that we need for production, it just slows everybody down.

0:30:39.560 --> 0:30:41.200
<v Speaker 1>Where there's no doubt it's going to be a slowdown.

0:30:41.200 --> 0:30:43.360
<v Speaker 1>But we're opening up pretty quick even around the world.

0:30:43.400 --> 0:30:45.320
<v Speaker 1>I think things are getting better, They're not getting worse.

0:30:45.360 --> 0:30:47.440
<v Speaker 1>So you know, in net net, I think it's a positive.

0:30:47.640 --> 0:30:49.800
<v Speaker 1>And let's let's face it, between China and the US,

0:30:49.840 --> 0:30:51.600
<v Speaker 1>we're the two biggest economies out there, and it looks

0:30:51.600 --> 0:30:53.320
<v Speaker 1>like China has opened up pretty good too. I work

0:30:53.360 --> 0:30:54.920
<v Speaker 1>at Third GDP. I mean it was through the roof,

0:30:57.480 --> 0:30:59.800
<v Speaker 1>so you so you're not worried at all. You know,

0:31:00.920 --> 0:31:03.280
<v Speaker 1>even though we did a story about global you know,

0:31:03.440 --> 0:31:07.600
<v Speaker 1>COVID cases coming up, I mean you think the US alone,

0:31:07.680 --> 0:31:10.160
<v Speaker 1>and I know you also talked about China specifically too,

0:31:10.640 --> 0:31:12.800
<v Speaker 1>although I think China has had some trouble with vaccine

0:31:12.880 --> 0:31:16.600
<v Speaker 1>rollout as well. Um, you know, you're not worried. If

0:31:16.720 --> 0:31:19.400
<v Speaker 1>China and the US are going you think everything's going

0:31:19.440 --> 0:31:21.960
<v Speaker 1>to be fine. I think we're gonna work through it

0:31:22.000 --> 0:31:23.680
<v Speaker 1>at a pretty good pace. I mean, do we have

0:31:23.920 --> 0:31:26.520
<v Speaker 1>bumps in the road. Yes, But no matter whether we

0:31:26.560 --> 0:31:28.600
<v Speaker 1>have a pandemic or not, there's always bumps in the road.

0:31:28.600 --> 0:31:30.320
<v Speaker 1>There's always something you know, around the world that we

0:31:30.320 --> 0:31:31.760
<v Speaker 1>can point a finger two and said, oh, that's the

0:31:31.760 --> 0:31:33.880
<v Speaker 1>reason the market. But there's bumps. And then there's another

0:31:33.920 --> 0:31:37.560
<v Speaker 1>wave of COVID that causes shutdowns, that that could that

0:31:37.600 --> 0:31:39.960
<v Speaker 1>could be a concern, but that's still it's not to

0:31:40.040 --> 0:31:41.960
<v Speaker 1>the point now i'd be too concerned about another way

0:31:41.960 --> 0:31:44.360
<v Speaker 1>because even with the way, if we do have another wave,

0:31:44.400 --> 0:31:45.520
<v Speaker 1>I don't think it's going to be as such a

0:31:45.520 --> 0:31:47.560
<v Speaker 1>shock factor as the second wave was, and I think

0:31:47.600 --> 0:31:49.440
<v Speaker 1>that was a pretty big one. But yeah, we're bullish

0:31:49.480 --> 0:31:51.680
<v Speaker 1>and I would be buying into this, and I think

0:31:51.720 --> 0:31:53.600
<v Speaker 1>six months, twelve months, eighteen months, I think you'd be

0:31:53.640 --> 0:31:55.920
<v Speaker 1>happy you did. Really, So what I mean, what are

0:31:55.920 --> 0:31:57.600
<v Speaker 1>your what are your own targets for the end of

0:31:57.640 --> 0:32:00.320
<v Speaker 1>the year. Well, we don't have any targets them, to

0:32:00.320 --> 0:32:02.760
<v Speaker 1>be quite candid, but we do run a proprietary indicated

0:32:02.800 --> 0:32:05.080
<v Speaker 1>the h c M biline is mathematically driven. It's all

0:32:05.120 --> 0:32:07.080
<v Speaker 1>quantitaty will be driven and I can tell you right now,

0:32:07.160 --> 0:32:09.040
<v Speaker 1>strong as the h C on Biline is going back

0:32:09.040 --> 0:32:11.280
<v Speaker 1>over forty years. You got an eighty two percent chance

0:32:11.320 --> 0:32:12.600
<v Speaker 1>the market is going to be higher. So we know

0:32:12.640 --> 0:32:14.440
<v Speaker 1>what the odds are you at a two percent chance

0:32:14.520 --> 0:32:16.240
<v Speaker 1>you take that trade? So I'm gonna ask a question.

0:32:16.240 --> 0:32:18.600
<v Speaker 1>I bet I know the answer. Tesla down four percent today?

0:32:18.640 --> 0:32:20.840
<v Speaker 1>You like this name? Are you buying on this dip?

0:32:21.840 --> 0:32:24.680
<v Speaker 1>Would we we bought a whole bunch of Tesla about

0:32:24.840 --> 0:32:26.560
<v Speaker 1>I guess four weeks ago. You know, I think we're

0:32:26.600 --> 0:32:29.440
<v Speaker 1>rough about on that trade. We started buying into Tesla

0:32:29.480 --> 0:32:32.560
<v Speaker 1>back then. You know, again, ask yourself twelve twenty four

0:32:32.560 --> 0:32:33.880
<v Speaker 1>months from now, do you think Tesla is going to

0:32:33.920 --> 0:32:35.720
<v Speaker 1>be higher? I think it is. I don't know. I mean,

0:32:35.720 --> 0:32:37.840
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot more new entrants when it comes to

0:32:37.880 --> 0:32:40.280
<v Speaker 1>the e V market. We've done story after story every

0:32:40.360 --> 0:32:43.200
<v Speaker 1>day that this year one is going to be whether

0:32:43.200 --> 0:32:46.480
<v Speaker 1>it's Volkswagen with her, it's Mercedes, whether it's them, whether

0:32:46.480 --> 0:32:48.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, you talked about it even you know, all

0:32:48.800 --> 0:32:51.800
<v Speaker 1>along kind of the cost structure of cars. You see

0:32:51.920 --> 0:32:55.160
<v Speaker 1>a lot new entries into the marketplace. You don't think

0:32:55.160 --> 0:32:58.160
<v Speaker 1>that's going to give Tesla run for their money. It could,

0:32:58.160 --> 0:32:59.959
<v Speaker 1>It very well could. But look at this though, You're

0:33:00.080 --> 0:33:02.400
<v Speaker 1>you're buying one of the products that that's not that's

0:33:02.440 --> 0:33:04.760
<v Speaker 1>a big part of Tesla unless a guy called Elon Musk.

0:33:05.080 --> 0:33:06.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the guy made a billion bucks with Bitcoin.

0:33:07.040 --> 0:33:08.640
<v Speaker 1>With Tesla, I mean, this guy is not sitting on

0:33:08.680 --> 0:33:10.800
<v Speaker 1>his hands. He's probably one of the most brilliant innovators

0:33:10.840 --> 0:33:13.360
<v Speaker 1>we have since Edison so and and Steve Jobs. So

0:33:13.440 --> 0:33:15.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean you're also you're you're putting your money behind him.

0:33:15.680 --> 0:33:17.080
<v Speaker 1>And I tell you, the guy's a young guy's a

0:33:17.080 --> 0:33:19.040
<v Speaker 1>smart guy. I mean, think about what this guy can

0:33:19.080 --> 0:33:21.400
<v Speaker 1>come up with next prod or twenty four months. Does

0:33:21.440 --> 0:33:24.720
<v Speaker 1>it concern just today's news concern you at all? No,

0:33:24.920 --> 0:33:26.960
<v Speaker 1>it doesn't concern me. I mean, this guy has already

0:33:26.960 --> 0:33:29.240
<v Speaker 1>got a big foothold in the marketplace. He's he's going

0:33:29.280 --> 0:33:31.080
<v Speaker 1>to drive traffic to Tesla. He's gonna come up with

0:33:31.120 --> 0:33:33.400
<v Speaker 1>something probably pretty interesting and innovative and probably in the

0:33:33.400 --> 0:33:35.280
<v Speaker 1>near term. Right. But just the fact that the the

0:33:35.400 --> 0:33:38.320
<v Speaker 1>idea that it could damage the brand, You're not concerned

0:33:38.320 --> 0:33:41.880
<v Speaker 1>about that? No, I'm not. I'm not concerned about that. Uh.

0:33:41.960 --> 0:33:44.000
<v Speaker 1>Any other names that you're finding interesting, like we're gonna

0:33:44.040 --> 0:33:46.520
<v Speaker 1>have United after the closing Bell today. We had Delta

0:33:46.640 --> 0:33:49.080
<v Speaker 1>last week. I mean, listen, you know this is going

0:33:49.120 --> 0:33:51.240
<v Speaker 1>to be potentially one of the big recovery stories. And

0:33:51.280 --> 0:33:53.440
<v Speaker 1>we know this is a group that just got decimated.

0:33:53.560 --> 0:33:56.080
<v Speaker 1>You know, all of their business are of their business

0:33:56.080 --> 0:34:00.200
<v Speaker 1>shutdown in What do you make of maybe the air lines?

0:34:00.280 --> 0:34:01.840
<v Speaker 1>Is that an area where you would commit some new

0:34:01.880 --> 0:34:05.160
<v Speaker 1>money or have they had their bounce back already? No? No, no,

0:34:05.200 --> 0:34:06.760
<v Speaker 1>I think they're gonna move higher right. Like I said,

0:34:06.920 --> 0:34:08.640
<v Speaker 1>we're bullish. We think things are going to open up.

0:34:08.680 --> 0:34:10.960
<v Speaker 1>We're not afraid of the world right now. You know,

0:34:10.960 --> 0:34:13.040
<v Speaker 1>we're launching a lot of great stocks that have been basing,

0:34:13.080 --> 0:34:15.239
<v Speaker 1>Like look at Amazon. Amazon has been basing for nine

0:34:15.280 --> 0:34:17.160
<v Speaker 1>much and it's on the It's just very very close

0:34:17.200 --> 0:34:19.280
<v Speaker 1>to having a fifty two week breakout, which is always

0:34:19.280 --> 0:34:21.800
<v Speaker 1>a positive thing. You know, Microsoft just broke out to

0:34:21.880 --> 0:34:23.400
<v Speaker 1>a fifty two week Hi. I mean, you're getting a

0:34:23.440 --> 0:34:25.359
<v Speaker 1>lot of stocks that are starting to break out. That's

0:34:25.400 --> 0:34:28.279
<v Speaker 1>telling you one thing. You don't trade with emotion. You

0:34:28.320 --> 0:34:30.479
<v Speaker 1>have to trade math like we do. So sit around

0:34:30.520 --> 0:34:33.279
<v Speaker 1>and worry about about the virus all day. You I

0:34:33.280 --> 0:34:35.239
<v Speaker 1>don't know what's gonna happen. Nobody does, but I can

0:34:35.280 --> 0:34:37.400
<v Speaker 1>tell you the odds are very very high mathematically from

0:34:37.400 --> 0:34:40.160
<v Speaker 1>the HC M Biloon, this market is going higher. Well,

0:34:40.760 --> 0:34:42.960
<v Speaker 1>there it is. You are definitely bullish. Okay, So I've

0:34:42.960 --> 0:34:45.880
<v Speaker 1>asked you about if the virus could derail this. Is

0:34:45.880 --> 0:34:48.760
<v Speaker 1>there anything else that you think could derail this? Because

0:34:49.280 --> 0:34:52.399
<v Speaker 1>there's corporate taxes potentially that could go higher. We didn't

0:34:52.400 --> 0:34:54.640
<v Speaker 1>see the market moves significantly on that news a few

0:34:54.640 --> 0:34:57.279
<v Speaker 1>weeks ago, which leads me to believe that either A

0:34:57.600 --> 0:34:59.839
<v Speaker 1>they don't think investors don't necessarily think it's gonna happen,

0:34:59.920 --> 0:35:02.600
<v Speaker 1>or be Um, it won't affect the company's bottom lines

0:35:02.640 --> 0:35:05.239
<v Speaker 1>and earning that much. Where do you falling when it

0:35:05.320 --> 0:35:08.160
<v Speaker 1>comes to corporate taxes? Something to be concerned about? But yeah,

0:35:08.239 --> 0:35:10.440
<v Speaker 1>it is, it is. There's two things that concern us now.

0:35:10.440 --> 0:35:12.840
<v Speaker 1>These are things that could drill is higher taxes and

0:35:12.600 --> 0:35:15.840
<v Speaker 1>and and dramatically more regulation. Those are the two factors

0:35:15.840 --> 0:35:18.560
<v Speaker 1>They could fill a monkey wrench in this whole process. Um,

0:35:18.600 --> 0:35:20.040
<v Speaker 1>But what we're getting is a lot of talk out

0:35:20.040 --> 0:35:21.600
<v Speaker 1>of Washington. I don't know how much of this is

0:35:21.600 --> 0:35:23.560
<v Speaker 1>gonna come reality because there's a point out there that

0:35:23.560 --> 0:35:25.520
<v Speaker 1>you gotta step back as a legislature and say, man

0:35:25.520 --> 0:35:27.319
<v Speaker 1>if I crushed the economy and probably not gonna keep

0:35:27.320 --> 0:35:29.640
<v Speaker 1>my job and get reelected, So they're gonna have to

0:35:29.680 --> 0:35:31.000
<v Speaker 1>kind of walk a tip rope and what do you

0:35:31.000 --> 0:35:33.000
<v Speaker 1>do with regulation and taxes to try to stay, you know,

0:35:33.160 --> 0:35:35.879
<v Speaker 1>keep between the lines and not swerve off and wreck. Hey,

0:35:35.880 --> 0:35:37.319
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of E t F that you like,

0:35:37.440 --> 0:35:40.399
<v Speaker 1>just got about seconds left here. What's the play here

0:35:40.440 --> 0:35:43.400
<v Speaker 1>for the E d F world for you? You know,

0:35:43.440 --> 0:35:45.719
<v Speaker 1>I was on CNBC the other day and we're talking about,

0:35:45.719 --> 0:35:48.600
<v Speaker 1>Oh my god, you're done. I can't even believe you

0:35:48.680 --> 0:35:53.080
<v Speaker 1>did that. Really, I didn't hear him that. I didn't

0:35:53.080 --> 0:35:56.040
<v Speaker 1>hear what you said. Sorry, we had a technically you

0:35:56.080 --> 0:36:01.200
<v Speaker 1>were doing so well and then ah, well whatever, what

0:36:01.560 --> 0:36:03.160
<v Speaker 1>you know. We started to find d v Y back

0:36:03.200 --> 0:36:05.800
<v Speaker 1>in the first week or the first week of April

0:36:05.840 --> 0:36:07.480
<v Speaker 1>of last year. It's been a great trade. But I

0:36:07.560 --> 0:36:10.400
<v Speaker 1>was asked the question though by another being interviewed, like, so, well,

0:36:10.400 --> 0:36:11.920
<v Speaker 1>don't you think it's topic You don't you think it's

0:36:11.920 --> 0:36:15.080
<v Speaker 1>too hot? You know, new has become new, has become new,

0:36:15.120 --> 0:36:17.760
<v Speaker 1>hows become new highes. That's how things double. So nothing

0:36:17.760 --> 0:36:19.719
<v Speaker 1>can double unlessen to it and knew how the whole way. Yep.

0:36:19.800 --> 0:36:21.600
<v Speaker 1>So when you look at the epicenter stocks with vv

0:36:21.719 --> 0:36:24.040
<v Speaker 1>why holds a whole bunch of high dividend epicenter stocks.

0:36:24.640 --> 0:36:26.520
<v Speaker 1>There's just so many things that are working right now.

0:36:27.200 --> 0:36:29.000
<v Speaker 1>All Right, We're gonna leave it on that note. Vans Howard,

0:36:29.000 --> 0:36:32.120
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much, Chief executive Officer, Portfolio manager Howard

0:36:32.200 --> 0:36:36.120
<v Speaker 1>Capital Management, three billion in assets under management. A definite

0:36:36.160 --> 0:36:38.160
<v Speaker 1>bull there, and we still like him even though he

0:36:38.200 --> 0:36:40.279
<v Speaker 1>mentioned a competitor. I mean, we like our competitors. I

0:36:40.280 --> 0:36:41.360
<v Speaker 1>know a lot of people there, a lot of my

0:36:41.360 --> 0:36:45.920
<v Speaker 1>friends are there, but still know your audience. Thanks for

0:36:45.920 --> 0:36:49.719
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:36:49.800 --> 0:36:52.000
<v Speaker 1>or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to

0:36:52.000 --> 0:36:54.560
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0:36:54.719 --> 0:36:57.480
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