1 00:00:15,276 --> 00:00:22,636 Speaker 1: Pushkin. So our story actually begins a couple of decades 2 00:00:22,676 --> 00:00:25,956 Speaker 1: ago at a dinner party thrown by a really rich 3 00:00:25,996 --> 00:00:30,356 Speaker 1: guy in snowmass Colorado. He'd invited a bunch of his friends, 4 00:00:30,396 --> 00:00:34,196 Speaker 1: plus two younger women he didn't really know. One was 5 00:00:34,236 --> 00:00:37,516 Speaker 1: a writer who happened to be in town, Rebecca Sulman. 6 00:00:38,556 --> 00:00:41,676 Speaker 1: It was this glam house that looked like a Ralph laurentad, 7 00:00:41,756 --> 00:00:47,676 Speaker 1: with the chelims and woodburning stove and rusticity, some sort 8 00:00:47,676 --> 00:00:56,796 Speaker 1: of luxury roughing it fantasy vacation home. And it was 9 00:00:56,916 --> 00:01:01,036 Speaker 1: mostly older people, and clearly people who were wealthy and 10 00:01:01,116 --> 00:01:04,396 Speaker 1: powerful and thought of themselves as important. And we were 11 00:01:04,436 --> 00:01:07,956 Speaker 1: both about forty and were clearly like the young ingeneus 12 00:01:08,076 --> 00:01:12,396 Speaker 1: in the room. Rebecca had gone to Colorado to visit 13 00:01:12,476 --> 00:01:16,036 Speaker 1: her friend Sally. Sally had talked her into going to 14 00:01:16,116 --> 00:01:18,436 Speaker 1: this party, and the point of the party was to 15 00:01:18,476 --> 00:01:21,836 Speaker 1: make Rebecca feel ignored, at least that's how she felt. 16 00:01:22,396 --> 00:01:24,716 Speaker 1: The host hardly said a word to her until they 17 00:01:24,716 --> 00:01:28,316 Speaker 1: were about to leave, and then came over to us 18 00:01:28,676 --> 00:01:31,476 Speaker 1: and said to me, so, I hear you've written a 19 00:01:31,516 --> 00:01:34,156 Speaker 1: couple of books, And at that point, how many books 20 00:01:34,156 --> 00:01:38,836 Speaker 1: had you written? I think seven, which is not technically 21 00:01:38,836 --> 00:01:44,116 Speaker 1: a couple. And so I said several actually, and he said, oh, 22 00:01:44,116 --> 00:01:47,956 Speaker 1: and what are they about in this already intensely patronizing town. 23 00:01:48,316 --> 00:01:51,836 Speaker 1: My most recent one had been about Edward Moybridge at 24 00:01:51,996 --> 00:01:56,876 Speaker 1: Moybridge's transformation of photography into a technology that could capture motion. 25 00:01:57,916 --> 00:02:02,516 Speaker 1: And he interrupted me to tell me that I should 26 00:02:02,596 --> 00:02:05,596 Speaker 1: know about the very important Moybridge book that had just 27 00:02:05,716 --> 00:02:08,676 Speaker 1: come out, and he was about to explain to you 28 00:02:08,676 --> 00:02:13,996 Speaker 1: about Wood Moybridge. He did proceed to explain about the 29 00:02:14,116 --> 00:02:17,876 Speaker 1: very important Moybridge book I should know about. The host 30 00:02:17,916 --> 00:02:20,756 Speaker 1: went on and on and on about this book about 31 00:02:20,756 --> 00:02:24,596 Speaker 1: the British photographer that both women could tell he hadn't 32 00:02:24,596 --> 00:02:28,596 Speaker 1: actually read. They could tell this because Rebecca had written 33 00:02:28,636 --> 00:02:33,516 Speaker 1: the book River of Shadows, Edward Moybridge and the Technological 34 00:02:33,596 --> 00:02:37,956 Speaker 1: wild West. It took my friend Sally three or four 35 00:02:37,956 --> 00:02:41,276 Speaker 1: times of trying to interject that's her book before he 36 00:02:41,356 --> 00:02:44,476 Speaker 1: actually listened to her enough to shut the fuck up. 37 00:02:45,236 --> 00:02:49,996 Speaker 1: And so it's kind of glorious and horrific as a 38 00:02:50,076 --> 00:02:57,036 Speaker 1: pristine shining diamond example, a pristine shining diamond like example. 39 00:02:57,836 --> 00:03:01,876 Speaker 1: But of what the answer didn't leap instantly to Rebecca's mind, 40 00:03:02,596 --> 00:03:05,396 Speaker 1: she filed the rich guy away as an example of something. 41 00:03:05,916 --> 00:03:08,036 Speaker 1: It took her five years to find the words to 42 00:03:08,116 --> 00:03:11,756 Speaker 1: fully express what it had been an example of. But 43 00:03:11,836 --> 00:03:14,196 Speaker 1: then one morning she sat down and wrote a piece 44 00:03:15,156 --> 00:03:18,676 Speaker 1: Men Explain Things to Me, she called it. It was 45 00:03:18,716 --> 00:03:24,716 Speaker 1: an instant classic. I wrote the essay in two thousand 46 00:03:24,716 --> 00:03:28,516 Speaker 1: and eight, and some mysterious, unnamed person who had always 47 00:03:28,516 --> 00:03:31,636 Speaker 1: assumed as a woman coined the term man explaining in 48 00:03:31,756 --> 00:03:34,116 Speaker 1: response to it. And then the world was off and 49 00:03:34,236 --> 00:03:37,876 Speaker 1: running when you published the original essay. Did you get 50 00:03:37,916 --> 00:03:42,316 Speaker 1: any kind of backlash? Was there any hostility? I got 51 00:03:42,316 --> 00:03:45,476 Speaker 1: a very funny letter from a man who said he'd 52 00:03:45,516 --> 00:03:49,196 Speaker 1: never patronized a woman in his life, and I just 53 00:03:49,316 --> 00:03:52,596 Speaker 1: needed to get over my feelings of inferiority and speak up. 54 00:03:54,436 --> 00:03:58,476 Speaker 1: And he proceeded to patronize. Why. Yes, well, welcome to 55 00:03:58,556 --> 00:04:04,196 Speaker 1: my gender. Michael, you sound surprised. What Rebecca got next 56 00:04:04,436 --> 00:04:08,916 Speaker 1: was an avalanche of similar stories, all from women. There 57 00:04:09,196 --> 00:04:11,196 Speaker 1: is the woman who listened to a man explain how 58 00:04:11,236 --> 00:04:14,756 Speaker 1: to pronounce her own name. There was the female scientist 59 00:04:14,996 --> 00:04:17,676 Speaker 1: to whom a man explained the contents of her own 60 00:04:17,716 --> 00:04:23,076 Speaker 1: academic paper. There was a one about well, I shouldn't 61 00:04:23,076 --> 00:04:26,076 Speaker 1: really be the one telling you about this. Can you 62 00:04:26,316 --> 00:04:30,196 Speaker 1: walk me through a few of them? Somebody tweets a 63 00:04:30,236 --> 00:04:35,116 Speaker 1: photograph of a woman sharpshooter in last Summer's Olympics, and 64 00:04:35,236 --> 00:04:38,636 Speaker 1: a man explains that she's got the wrong stance, and 65 00:04:39,636 --> 00:04:43,756 Speaker 1: he's explaining she should hold it with both hands. He's wrong, 66 00:04:43,756 --> 00:04:47,676 Speaker 1: of course, men explaining sports to professional female athletes turned 67 00:04:47,676 --> 00:04:51,836 Speaker 1: out to be a whole subgenre of man's plaining. Molly Sidell, 68 00:04:52,476 --> 00:04:56,036 Speaker 1: who won a silver or bronze medal in track in 69 00:04:56,116 --> 00:04:59,956 Speaker 1: the Olympics a few years ago, tweeted, on my flight, 70 00:05:00,076 --> 00:05:01,876 Speaker 1: I was talking to a guy next to me and 71 00:05:01,956 --> 00:05:04,436 Speaker 1: it came up that I run. He starts telling me 72 00:05:04,516 --> 00:05:07,156 Speaker 1: how I need to train high mileage and pulls up 73 00:05:07,196 --> 00:05:10,396 Speaker 1: an analysis he'd made a a pro runner's training on 74 00:05:10,436 --> 00:05:14,076 Speaker 1: his phone. The pro runner was me, it was my training. 75 00:05:14,556 --> 00:05:21,436 Speaker 1: Didn't have the heart to tell him, just as Rebecca 76 00:05:21,596 --> 00:05:23,396 Speaker 1: hadn't had the heart to tell the rich guy that 77 00:05:23,436 --> 00:05:26,196 Speaker 1: he was lecturing her about a book she herself had written. 78 00:05:26,836 --> 00:05:30,116 Speaker 1: She's obviously found the heart since can I just read 79 00:05:30,156 --> 00:05:34,836 Speaker 1: you one? I have an almost bottomless appetite. Here's a 80 00:05:34,876 --> 00:05:38,316 Speaker 1: woman named Eileen Mary O'Connell, who said on Twitter a 81 00:05:38,356 --> 00:05:41,116 Speaker 1: few years ago, thinking about the time that I said 82 00:05:41,156 --> 00:05:45,196 Speaker 1: I was distantly related to Marie Curie, and a man explained, 83 00:05:45,676 --> 00:05:57,156 Speaker 1: it's pronounced Mariah Carey. I'm Michael Lewis, pronounced Michael Lewis. 84 00:05:57,396 --> 00:06:00,276 Speaker 1: And this is against the rules where we explore on 85 00:06:00,436 --> 00:06:03,596 Speaker 1: fairness in American life by looking at what's happened to 86 00:06:03,676 --> 00:06:08,276 Speaker 1: various characters in American life. This season is about experts, 87 00:06:09,196 --> 00:06:12,556 Speaker 1: and this episode is about men, or any way about 88 00:06:12,596 --> 00:06:16,356 Speaker 1: this thing that men do because they really are naturally 89 00:06:16,396 --> 00:06:20,676 Speaker 1: superior to women at one thing, offering themselves up as 90 00:06:20,756 --> 00:06:32,596 Speaker 1: experts when they clearly are not. Now, I am, of 91 00:06:32,636 --> 00:06:36,716 Speaker 1: course a man, and as a man, I might offer 92 00:06:36,756 --> 00:06:39,996 Speaker 1: you with total confidence all kinds of theories about why 93 00:06:40,036 --> 00:06:43,436 Speaker 1: we are the way we are. I could explain until 94 00:06:43,516 --> 00:06:46,716 Speaker 1: every oxygen molecule is sucked out of the room why 95 00:06:46,796 --> 00:06:49,916 Speaker 1: men are so ready to explain things to people who 96 00:06:49,956 --> 00:06:53,476 Speaker 1: know more about those things than we do. But let 97 00:06:53,476 --> 00:06:56,356 Speaker 1: me turn instead to the journalists Claire Shipment and Katty 98 00:06:56,436 --> 00:06:59,756 Speaker 1: k because they wrote an entire book that offers up 99 00:06:59,956 --> 00:07:03,796 Speaker 1: one really plausible theory, and I actually read it. It's 100 00:07:03,836 --> 00:07:08,636 Speaker 1: called The confidence code. Columbia University has come up with 101 00:07:08,796 --> 00:07:13,956 Speaker 1: a phrase, which we love, is called honest overconfidence. That's 102 00:07:14,036 --> 00:07:17,956 Speaker 1: Caddy Kay and Columbia reckons that men tend to overestimate 103 00:07:17,996 --> 00:07:22,716 Speaker 1: their ability by something like thirty percent. Women tend to 104 00:07:22,916 --> 00:07:26,316 Speaker 1: underestimate their ability, but men tend to overestimate their ability. 105 00:07:26,316 --> 00:07:28,556 Speaker 1: And they call it honest over confidence because it's not 106 00:07:28,596 --> 00:07:32,956 Speaker 1: that they're pretending they know more. They actually believe they 107 00:07:32,956 --> 00:07:36,236 Speaker 1: are about thirty percent better than they are. Now we've 108 00:07:36,236 --> 00:07:38,796 Speaker 1: all learned to be skeptical about this sort of social science. 109 00:07:39,236 --> 00:07:42,956 Speaker 1: Some researcher discovers something shocking about human nature and then 110 00:07:42,996 --> 00:07:45,436 Speaker 1: it turns out to be not really true, or only 111 00:07:45,476 --> 00:07:49,236 Speaker 1: sort of true, or true only in certain circumstances. But 112 00:07:49,356 --> 00:07:52,836 Speaker 1: in the case of male over confidence, the findings are 113 00:07:52,876 --> 00:07:56,196 Speaker 1: totally solid. If you want to do a social science 114 00:07:56,236 --> 00:07:59,236 Speaker 1: test with a bunch of graduate students and you want 115 00:07:59,236 --> 00:08:02,116 Speaker 1: to make sure you know in advance what the answer 116 00:08:02,156 --> 00:08:03,596 Speaker 1: is going to be, you give a group of men 117 00:08:03,596 --> 00:08:07,396 Speaker 1: and women a scientific reasoning quiz, and the men will 118 00:08:07,436 --> 00:08:09,676 Speaker 1: nearly always say they're going to perform better than they 119 00:08:09,676 --> 00:08:12,876 Speaker 1: actually do, and the women will nearly always say they're 120 00:08:12,876 --> 00:08:17,156 Speaker 1: going to perform worse than they actually do. And why 121 00:08:17,316 --> 00:08:20,156 Speaker 1: is this? I know it's a hard question to answer, 122 00:08:20,276 --> 00:08:25,036 Speaker 1: but when does this first manifest itself in life? Do 123 00:08:25,196 --> 00:08:29,036 Speaker 1: little girls and little boys exhibit this tendency or does 124 00:08:29,076 --> 00:08:32,636 Speaker 1: it only happen later in life. This really starts to 125 00:08:32,676 --> 00:08:38,916 Speaker 1: manifest itself in middle school, around puberty. We commissioned a 126 00:08:38,996 --> 00:08:42,796 Speaker 1: survey for our book on Confidence and Girls that suggests 127 00:08:42,796 --> 00:08:47,836 Speaker 1: that between the ages of nine and about thirteen, girls 128 00:08:47,996 --> 00:08:50,916 Speaker 1: lose a third of their confidence and they never get 129 00:08:50,916 --> 00:08:54,916 Speaker 1: it back. Obviously, boys can grow up to be under 130 00:08:54,956 --> 00:08:58,316 Speaker 1: confident men, and girls can grow up to be confident women. 131 00:08:58,996 --> 00:09:01,636 Speaker 1: And obviously not every man longs to explain things that 132 00:09:01,636 --> 00:09:05,596 Speaker 1: he shouldn't. But there's an undeniable pattern here men thinking 133 00:09:05,636 --> 00:09:08,716 Speaker 1: they have an expertise that they don't. You really don't 134 00:09:08,756 --> 00:09:10,836 Speaker 1: have to look any further than Wall Street for examples. 135 00:09:11,916 --> 00:09:17,116 Speaker 1: Imagine that you are an individual investor, maybe not that active, 136 00:09:17,156 --> 00:09:21,556 Speaker 1: but occasionally trading. That's Terry o'deane, a finance professor at 137 00:09:21,636 --> 00:09:24,996 Speaker 1: UC Berkeley. He and his colleague Brad Barber made what 138 00:09:25,196 --> 00:09:28,276 Speaker 1: might be the purest case study of mail over confidence. 139 00:09:29,196 --> 00:09:31,436 Speaker 1: But they set out to just look at how ordinary 140 00:09:31,436 --> 00:09:35,836 Speaker 1: people traded in the stock market. You open up the 141 00:09:35,916 --> 00:09:39,236 Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal one morning, you read a paragraph about 142 00:09:39,276 --> 00:09:42,876 Speaker 1: some company. You say, Wow, that really sounds great. I 143 00:09:42,916 --> 00:09:47,996 Speaker 1: think I'll buy it. So you don't pause and say, 144 00:09:48,436 --> 00:09:52,516 Speaker 1: maybe professional investors already know this, It's already been incorporated 145 00:09:52,516 --> 00:09:55,036 Speaker 1: into price. You just say, sounds like a good idea, 146 00:09:55,116 --> 00:09:59,316 Speaker 1: I'll buy. Maybe another investor reads the same stuff, says 147 00:09:59,556 --> 00:10:04,436 Speaker 1: intriguing company. But I really don't know enough to place 148 00:10:04,476 --> 00:10:07,676 Speaker 1: a trade, and I gotta get to work. So what's 149 00:10:07,716 --> 00:10:09,956 Speaker 1: the difference between over confidence and confidence? I can see 150 00:10:09,956 --> 00:10:14,036 Speaker 1: how confidence is sort of what leads thought to action. Yes, 151 00:10:14,556 --> 00:10:16,796 Speaker 1: but what's the difference just confidence? Why is it over 152 00:10:16,836 --> 00:10:21,796 Speaker 1: confident systematically on the side of thinking you know more 153 00:10:21,836 --> 00:10:23,716 Speaker 1: than you do and that's what leads you to buy 154 00:10:23,756 --> 00:10:26,556 Speaker 1: the stock or sell the stock. Yes, I think it 155 00:10:26,596 --> 00:10:29,956 Speaker 1: takes a great deal of hubris to think you are 156 00:10:30,076 --> 00:10:33,996 Speaker 1: going to do part time if you have a regular job, 157 00:10:34,476 --> 00:10:38,956 Speaker 1: you are going to do what professional money managers struggle 158 00:10:39,076 --> 00:10:42,956 Speaker 1: to do, and many never succeed at. Unless you're trading 159 00:10:42,996 --> 00:10:46,676 Speaker 1: on inside information, which is illegal. When you make a 160 00:10:46,716 --> 00:10:49,676 Speaker 1: bet on the price of some stock, you're basically betting 161 00:10:49,676 --> 00:10:51,836 Speaker 1: on the flip of a coin, and you're paying a 162 00:10:51,836 --> 00:10:54,916 Speaker 1: commission each time you do it over and over. The 163 00:10:54,996 --> 00:10:58,956 Speaker 1: smartest professional investors fail to outperform the market by picking stocks. 164 00:11:00,236 --> 00:11:02,116 Speaker 1: For an amateur to even try, well, it's a lot 165 00:11:02,196 --> 00:11:06,156 Speaker 1: like man explaining, Terry Odeane thought so too. He wondered 166 00:11:06,156 --> 00:11:08,476 Speaker 1: whether there was any difference between how men and women 167 00:11:08,556 --> 00:11:11,836 Speaker 1: behaved in the market, So he and his colleague got 168 00:11:11,836 --> 00:11:15,476 Speaker 1: a hold of data from online brokerage accounts. They sorted 169 00:11:15,476 --> 00:11:18,956 Speaker 1: the money into three buckets, money managed by single men, 170 00:11:19,716 --> 00:11:23,636 Speaker 1: money managed by single women, and money managed by married couples. 171 00:11:25,196 --> 00:11:28,236 Speaker 1: Men did worse than women, and not just a little worse. 172 00:11:28,636 --> 00:11:32,396 Speaker 1: Both men and women underperformed to buy and hold approach, 173 00:11:32,676 --> 00:11:36,876 Speaker 1: but men underperformed by one percentage point more a year 174 00:11:37,116 --> 00:11:41,076 Speaker 1: on average than women. Single men by one point four 175 00:11:41,116 --> 00:11:44,676 Speaker 1: percentage points more a year on average than single women, 176 00:11:44,716 --> 00:11:47,996 Speaker 1: which is actually quite significant. Yes, it sounds like a 177 00:11:47,996 --> 00:11:52,356 Speaker 1: little but if you compound that over a lifetime. Even occasionally, 178 00:11:52,356 --> 00:11:55,516 Speaker 1: financial reporters will say, well does anyone really care about 179 00:11:55,556 --> 00:11:58,476 Speaker 1: one percent? And what I usually say is, next time 180 00:11:58,516 --> 00:12:01,996 Speaker 1: you're shopping for a mortgage, ask yourself that question, right, 181 00:12:02,436 --> 00:12:06,116 Speaker 1: I mean, a one percentage point difference in your mortgage 182 00:12:06,676 --> 00:12:09,636 Speaker 1: is going to add up to tens of thousands or 183 00:12:09,756 --> 00:12:11,996 Speaker 1: hundreds of thousands of dollars over the life of a 184 00:12:12,156 --> 00:12:15,676 Speaker 1: thirty year mortgage. Hearing this, you might conclude that it 185 00:12:15,716 --> 00:12:18,316 Speaker 1: would all be better off if Wall Street were overhauled 186 00:12:18,596 --> 00:12:21,156 Speaker 1: and women were put in charge of the financial risk taking. 187 00:12:21,996 --> 00:12:25,116 Speaker 1: But what we got instead was a world historic financial 188 00:12:25,156 --> 00:12:30,116 Speaker 1: crisis engineered by very confident men. Even that didn't cause 189 00:12:30,156 --> 00:12:32,436 Speaker 1: anyone to ask if leaving the financial risk taking to 190 00:12:32,516 --> 00:12:35,796 Speaker 1: men was a great idea, except in Iceland. In Iceland, 191 00:12:35,796 --> 00:12:38,196 Speaker 1: they actually figured it out. They replaced the men in 192 00:12:38,236 --> 00:12:40,836 Speaker 1: the banks with women, and the male prime minister with 193 00:12:40,876 --> 00:12:44,636 Speaker 1: a woman who promised never again to let icelandic men 194 00:12:45,076 --> 00:12:50,036 Speaker 1: touch her banks. Outside of Iceland, men still mostly decide 195 00:12:50,076 --> 00:12:53,116 Speaker 1: what to do with big piles of money. Terry o'deane's 196 00:12:53,156 --> 00:12:57,036 Speaker 1: findings have gone ignored. But has anybody ever called you 197 00:12:57,116 --> 00:13:00,436 Speaker 1: say thank you, Terry. I have my job managing the 198 00:13:00,476 --> 00:13:04,876 Speaker 1: stock portfolio because of your paper. That has never happened. 199 00:13:05,436 --> 00:13:08,516 Speaker 1: One thing did happen. I got a letter once. Shortly 200 00:13:08,556 --> 00:13:12,516 Speaker 1: after paper got, you know, some coverage in the popular press. 201 00:13:13,156 --> 00:13:16,716 Speaker 1: A woman wrote said, I want to thank you. She's 202 00:13:16,796 --> 00:13:22,036 Speaker 1: in her sixties, and she said, my husband has been 203 00:13:23,236 --> 00:13:28,476 Speaker 1: actively trading our savings and I've been very nervous about 204 00:13:28,476 --> 00:13:30,636 Speaker 1: it for the last few years. And then I read 205 00:13:30,676 --> 00:13:34,636 Speaker 1: about your paper and I told him to stop actively 206 00:13:34,676 --> 00:13:39,476 Speaker 1: trading my savings. So I thought, well, that feels good 207 00:13:43,596 --> 00:13:57,316 Speaker 1: against the rules, will be right back. Let's recap our 208 00:13:57,356 --> 00:14:01,436 Speaker 1: findings thus far. Men are especially capable of thinking they 209 00:14:01,476 --> 00:14:05,076 Speaker 1: know things they really don't. They feel a weird compulsion 210 00:14:05,156 --> 00:14:08,156 Speaker 1: to explain subjects to people who know more about those 211 00:14:08,156 --> 00:14:11,556 Speaker 1: subjects than they, and they are more likely than people 212 00:14:11,556 --> 00:14:14,076 Speaker 1: who are not men to think they know things that 213 00:14:14,156 --> 00:14:18,116 Speaker 1: are totally unknowable. Sometimes they even act on that belief 214 00:14:18,316 --> 00:14:21,796 Speaker 1: and lose huge piles of money. But it's not really 215 00:14:21,836 --> 00:14:24,476 Speaker 1: men's fault, or rather, it's not the fault of any 216 00:14:24,516 --> 00:14:28,356 Speaker 1: individual man. If a man is deluded into believing he 217 00:14:28,396 --> 00:14:32,036 Speaker 1: knows more than he actually does, it's because he's surrounded 218 00:14:32,036 --> 00:14:36,316 Speaker 1: by people who share his delusion, who encourage his over confidence. 219 00:14:37,596 --> 00:14:40,236 Speaker 1: The writer Maria Kanakova wrote a whole book about this, 220 00:14:41,036 --> 00:14:43,476 Speaker 1: The Confidence Game. It was called It was all about 221 00:14:43,516 --> 00:14:46,436 Speaker 1: con artists, but it is also about what con artists 222 00:14:46,436 --> 00:14:53,756 Speaker 1: tell us about our culture. Exhibit A was a man 223 00:14:53,876 --> 00:14:57,916 Speaker 1: named Ferdinand Waldo Damara, who had a gift for persuading 224 00:14:57,956 --> 00:15:01,636 Speaker 1: people that he knew stuff that he did not were 225 00:15:01,756 --> 00:15:05,756 Speaker 1: during the Korean War, and he decides that he's going 226 00:15:05,796 --> 00:15:08,796 Speaker 1: to steal the credentials of a doctor in Canada and 227 00:15:09,156 --> 00:15:12,636 Speaker 1: apply to be a doctor on a ship, a military doctor, 228 00:15:12,876 --> 00:15:16,796 Speaker 1: because he actually identifies a perfect opportunity. Why would he 229 00:15:16,836 --> 00:15:19,636 Speaker 1: even want to do that? Like, why would why would 230 00:15:19,636 --> 00:15:21,076 Speaker 1: you want to be a doctor on a ship? So 231 00:15:21,316 --> 00:15:27,516 Speaker 1: Damara is someone who is so narcissistic, so full of 232 00:15:27,596 --> 00:15:30,276 Speaker 1: himself that he thinks that he is the best person 233 00:15:30,316 --> 00:15:33,076 Speaker 1: in the world, and he loves more than anything else, 234 00:15:33,196 --> 00:15:36,076 Speaker 1: playing god. And what is the ultimate profession where you 235 00:15:36,156 --> 00:15:38,476 Speaker 1: really get to play god. It's being a surgeon. It's 236 00:15:38,476 --> 00:15:41,836 Speaker 1: actually having people's lives in your hands. So he falsified 237 00:15:41,876 --> 00:15:45,316 Speaker 1: his credentials, ended up getting an appointment, and ended up 238 00:15:45,356 --> 00:15:49,676 Speaker 1: being the sole physician aboard this ship heading to Korea 239 00:15:49,836 --> 00:15:53,236 Speaker 1: during the war. Not only that, but he then ended 240 00:15:53,316 --> 00:15:57,956 Speaker 1: up operating on a ship full of soldiers who had 241 00:15:57,996 --> 00:16:01,356 Speaker 1: been in an ambush. So he ended up operating on 242 00:16:01,476 --> 00:16:04,916 Speaker 1: all of them and, as he said, saving their lives. 243 00:16:04,916 --> 00:16:08,236 Speaker 1: But we don't actually know what happened you might see 244 00:16:08,236 --> 00:16:12,156 Speaker 1: this imposters an extreme example, but you might also see 245 00:16:12,196 --> 00:16:16,596 Speaker 1: them as a case in point. But this feels like 246 00:16:16,596 --> 00:16:19,756 Speaker 1: a very male thing. I have a very hard time 247 00:16:19,796 --> 00:16:22,556 Speaker 1: imagining a woman doing it. I agree, I agree, And 248 00:16:22,596 --> 00:16:24,636 Speaker 1: I think that those types of coins that's why we 249 00:16:24,676 --> 00:16:27,676 Speaker 1: don't really see we don't know any stories of women 250 00:16:27,756 --> 00:16:30,836 Speaker 1: pulling something like that off all of the female cons 251 00:16:30,836 --> 00:16:33,996 Speaker 1: that I was able to kind of unearth when I 252 00:16:34,156 --> 00:16:37,636 Speaker 1: was when I was researching the Confidence Game, where things like, oh, 253 00:16:37,756 --> 00:16:41,476 Speaker 1: I'm going to pretend to be the daughter of Carnegie 254 00:16:42,036 --> 00:16:44,196 Speaker 1: so that I can get people to loan me lots 255 00:16:44,196 --> 00:16:46,596 Speaker 1: of money because they think that I'm going to come 256 00:16:46,636 --> 00:16:49,276 Speaker 1: into my inheritance or something like that. But it's not 257 00:16:49,316 --> 00:16:52,996 Speaker 1: a pretensive expertise. It's it's something very different. It's I'm 258 00:16:53,036 --> 00:16:55,276 Speaker 1: not who I say I am, but it's not and 259 00:16:55,516 --> 00:16:58,716 Speaker 1: I can do what I can't actually do. I am 260 00:16:58,756 --> 00:17:02,196 Speaker 1: heir to this fortune, I'm a socialite and I have 261 00:17:02,276 --> 00:17:06,876 Speaker 1: connections to royalty. I am part of the aristocracy. Why 262 00:17:06,956 --> 00:17:10,996 Speaker 1: is it you think women don't pretend to expertise. I 263 00:17:11,116 --> 00:17:14,076 Speaker 1: think that actually just because of the type of society 264 00:17:14,116 --> 00:17:15,876 Speaker 1: we're in, the fact that we are in a male 265 00:17:15,956 --> 00:17:19,676 Speaker 1: dominated world that female experts tend to be questioned more. 266 00:17:19,956 --> 00:17:22,476 Speaker 1: If a woman says I'm the best surgeon you've ever seen, 267 00:17:23,236 --> 00:17:28,196 Speaker 1: red flags are going to start waving. Con Artists pick 268 00:17:28,276 --> 00:17:31,676 Speaker 1: up on psychological cues. That's how they can us. The 269 00:17:31,796 --> 00:17:33,956 Speaker 1: cue here is that when we hear the word expert, 270 00:17:34,316 --> 00:17:37,396 Speaker 1: we form a picture in our head. And that picture 271 00:17:37,636 --> 00:17:40,556 Speaker 1: is of a man. My husband and I were on 272 00:17:40,636 --> 00:17:45,956 Speaker 1: a pretty long flight. Her name is Aminemogul, doctor Aminemogul, 273 00:17:46,636 --> 00:17:49,996 Speaker 1: and I was sitting it was like a triple seven jet, 274 00:17:50,036 --> 00:17:54,036 Speaker 1: So I was sitting close to the aisle and in 275 00:17:54,076 --> 00:17:57,756 Speaker 1: the middle section, and there was a gentleman who was 276 00:17:57,956 --> 00:18:01,996 Speaker 1: walking back from the restrooms who was seated just one 277 00:18:02,116 --> 00:18:07,596 Speaker 1: row behind me, to my left, and he just completely collapsed. 278 00:18:07,596 --> 00:18:12,156 Speaker 1: I mean he just fell down, face forward, and a 279 00:18:12,236 --> 00:18:16,476 Speaker 1: flight attendant immediately rushed over, and so she shouted to 280 00:18:16,476 --> 00:18:18,436 Speaker 1: find out if there was anyone who was a doctor 281 00:18:18,476 --> 00:18:22,516 Speaker 1: on the plane. Amina wasn't just any doctor. She was 282 00:18:22,556 --> 00:18:25,716 Speaker 1: a former army doctor who now worked as a general practitioner. 283 00:18:26,516 --> 00:18:30,316 Speaker 1: She'd been trained for battlefield emergencies. She was exactly the 284 00:18:30,396 --> 00:18:33,396 Speaker 1: kind of doctor you'd won in this moment, and she 285 00:18:33,596 --> 00:18:36,476 Speaker 1: was right there she'd seen it all. So I stood 286 00:18:36,556 --> 00:18:39,116 Speaker 1: up and I said, I'm a doctor. And right behind 287 00:18:39,196 --> 00:18:44,956 Speaker 1: this gentleman's row was a older male nurse. He identified 288 00:18:45,036 --> 00:18:48,076 Speaker 1: himself as a nurse. He was a Caucasian. I'm South Asian, 289 00:18:48,636 --> 00:18:51,716 Speaker 1: and he stepped up and the flight attendant kind of 290 00:18:51,796 --> 00:18:55,356 Speaker 1: completely ignored me. And my husband was seated next to me. 291 00:18:55,436 --> 00:19:00,796 Speaker 1: He's a pretty tall Caucasian guy, and he tried to 292 00:19:00,836 --> 00:19:03,396 Speaker 1: alert the flight attendant and said, hey, my wife is here. 293 00:19:03,436 --> 00:19:05,716 Speaker 1: She's a doctor. And she looked at me, and then 294 00:19:05,716 --> 00:19:07,236 Speaker 1: she looked at him and she said, we have the 295 00:19:07,276 --> 00:19:11,916 Speaker 1: help that we need. And and that was that. Do 296 00:19:11,956 --> 00:19:16,716 Speaker 1: you think she looked at you and thought not doctor autely? Absolutely? 297 00:19:17,636 --> 00:19:19,476 Speaker 1: And actually, you know what, now that I think about it, 298 00:19:19,476 --> 00:19:23,196 Speaker 1: I think she actually said, what you're a doctor, like 299 00:19:23,196 --> 00:19:26,676 Speaker 1: like it was somehow unbelievable. And my husband goes, yeah, 300 00:19:26,716 --> 00:19:28,556 Speaker 1: she's a doctor, and then she just looked at him 301 00:19:28,556 --> 00:19:30,556 Speaker 1: and said, oh okay, and then just kind of carried on. 302 00:19:31,116 --> 00:19:32,716 Speaker 1: And I looked at my husband and I looked at 303 00:19:32,716 --> 00:19:35,716 Speaker 1: each other and we were just like, well, that was bizarre. Meanwhile, 304 00:19:35,756 --> 00:19:37,556 Speaker 1: they were this man who might be dying on the 305 00:19:37,596 --> 00:19:40,636 Speaker 1: floor of the cot and I'm thinking to myself, Wow, 306 00:19:40,796 --> 00:19:46,636 Speaker 1: I hope he's okay. Unfortunately, it never occurred to the 307 00:19:46,676 --> 00:19:49,436 Speaker 1: male nurse or anyone else that they were in the 308 00:19:49,436 --> 00:19:51,716 Speaker 1: presence of someone who might know more than they did. 309 00:19:52,316 --> 00:19:54,596 Speaker 1: But the truth was that Ameda didn't give the episode 310 00:19:54,676 --> 00:19:58,036 Speaker 1: much thought until she stumbled upon a Facebook group of 311 00:19:58,116 --> 00:20:01,796 Speaker 1: female doctors in which another woman described how she'd just 312 00:20:01,876 --> 00:20:04,636 Speaker 1: come off a flight with some medical emergency and she 313 00:20:04,796 --> 00:20:07,436 Speaker 1: shouted that she was a doctor, and everyone had just 314 00:20:07,516 --> 00:20:10,876 Speaker 1: ignored her, and a lot of people just started chiming 315 00:20:10,916 --> 00:20:13,836 Speaker 1: in with their anecdotes, and there were a lot of them. 316 00:20:13,876 --> 00:20:16,836 Speaker 1: There were a lot of them. I was kind of 317 00:20:16,836 --> 00:20:19,276 Speaker 1: shocked at how many other people had been through the 318 00:20:19,356 --> 00:20:23,396 Speaker 1: same thing. That's how doctor Amina Mogul found out that 319 00:20:23,436 --> 00:20:28,276 Speaker 1: this was actually a thing. Invisible female doctors on planes. 320 00:20:38,396 --> 00:20:40,716 Speaker 1: Not even a man wants to die on an airplane 321 00:20:40,756 --> 00:20:43,036 Speaker 1: because no one can see the female doctor in seat 322 00:20:43,116 --> 00:20:47,396 Speaker 1: eighteen B. It's clearly not healthy for any society to 323 00:20:47,436 --> 00:20:49,996 Speaker 1: treat men as if they know more than they actually 324 00:20:49,996 --> 00:20:54,636 Speaker 1: do and women as if they know less. It encourages 325 00:20:54,676 --> 00:20:58,916 Speaker 1: men to become imposters. It drags women with actual knowledge 326 00:20:59,556 --> 00:21:04,476 Speaker 1: into imposter syndrome. It cheats the entire society of expertise, 327 00:21:05,556 --> 00:21:08,476 Speaker 1: and so the obvious question is why does this happen? 328 00:21:13,436 --> 00:21:16,276 Speaker 1: Before you or I answer that question, let's describe, or 329 00:21:16,356 --> 00:21:21,356 Speaker 1: let's let Caddy K describe. One final science experiment done 330 00:21:21,356 --> 00:21:24,836 Speaker 1: a few years ago by an American psychologist named Zach Estes. 331 00:21:26,116 --> 00:21:29,676 Speaker 1: He sat a group of men and women and gave 332 00:21:29,716 --> 00:21:34,396 Speaker 1: them a spatial awareness test. It's a series of like 333 00:21:34,596 --> 00:21:37,356 Speaker 1: Rubik's cube type puzzles on a computer screen, and you 334 00:21:37,396 --> 00:21:40,396 Speaker 1: have to solve these puzzles, and he gives them the 335 00:21:40,476 --> 00:21:44,156 Speaker 1: same test, and the women do significantly less well than 336 00:21:44,196 --> 00:21:47,196 Speaker 1: the men do. So Professor Estes goes back over the 337 00:21:47,236 --> 00:21:49,796 Speaker 1: results and he sees that what's happened is that the 338 00:21:49,956 --> 00:21:53,236 Speaker 1: women have skipped questions more often than the men have. 339 00:21:54,556 --> 00:21:57,796 Speaker 1: And he thought that was interesting. The women were basically 340 00:21:57,796 --> 00:22:00,196 Speaker 1: saying they didn't know the answer to a question a 341 00:22:00,276 --> 00:22:02,996 Speaker 1: lot more than the men, and it wasn't because the 342 00:22:03,036 --> 00:22:06,436 Speaker 1: men were more likely to know the answers. The next test, 343 00:22:06,556 --> 00:22:09,756 Speaker 1: he gives the same group another set and he says, okay, 344 00:22:09,876 --> 00:22:12,996 Speaker 1: now no one is allowed to skip anything. No omissions 345 00:22:13,116 --> 00:22:14,636 Speaker 1: is what he calls it. So no one's allowed to 346 00:22:14,636 --> 00:22:18,076 Speaker 1: skip anything, and guess what. On the test where the 347 00:22:18,116 --> 00:22:20,516 Speaker 1: women have to answer the questions, they do just as 348 00:22:20,516 --> 00:22:23,556 Speaker 1: well as the men. Sometimes it is better to think 349 00:22:23,596 --> 00:22:25,476 Speaker 1: you know the answer to the question when you don't, 350 00:22:25,796 --> 00:22:27,956 Speaker 1: because it leads you to answer the question rather than 351 00:22:27,996 --> 00:22:31,436 Speaker 1: just leave it blank. That's the joy of overconfidence. It pays, 352 00:22:31,836 --> 00:22:36,316 Speaker 1: and not just in a social science lab. In real life. Obviously, 353 00:22:36,356 --> 00:22:39,156 Speaker 1: no one knows your cards except for you, and all 354 00:22:39,196 --> 00:22:41,756 Speaker 1: they see is how you present yourself, right. The only 355 00:22:41,796 --> 00:22:46,636 Speaker 1: information that's available is how you play. After Maria Kannakova 356 00:22:46,676 --> 00:22:49,756 Speaker 1: wrote her a book about con artists, she stumbled upon 357 00:22:49,796 --> 00:22:51,956 Speaker 1: a book called The Theory of Games by a pair 358 00:22:51,996 --> 00:22:56,876 Speaker 1: of genius mathematicians named von Neumann and Morgenstern. Morgenstern had 359 00:22:56,916 --> 00:23:00,396 Speaker 1: gone looking for games that resembled real life. He had 360 00:23:00,436 --> 00:23:02,556 Speaker 1: this idea that if he could figure out the smartest 361 00:23:02,596 --> 00:23:05,316 Speaker 1: way to play certain games, he could also figure out 362 00:23:05,356 --> 00:23:07,436 Speaker 1: the smartest way to deal with a lot of situations 363 00:23:07,436 --> 00:23:10,876 Speaker 1: in real life. He has this whole passage where he 364 00:23:10,916 --> 00:23:14,476 Speaker 1: says that chess is boring, like chess is a bullshit game. 365 00:23:14,756 --> 00:23:17,396 Speaker 1: Don't have me play chess because I can solve it. Right, 366 00:23:17,516 --> 00:23:20,076 Speaker 1: I'm creating this thing that's going to become the computer. 367 00:23:20,516 --> 00:23:23,796 Speaker 1: Give me enough computing power and I tell you the 368 00:23:23,876 --> 00:23:26,276 Speaker 1: right move. That's not life. That doesn't help me make 369 00:23:26,276 --> 00:23:32,116 Speaker 1: decisions in life. How do I decide in a nuclear 370 00:23:32,196 --> 00:23:35,036 Speaker 1: war situation? He actually, you know, at that time he 371 00:23:35,076 --> 00:23:39,876 Speaker 1: was advising the National Security Council, so this was not abstract. 372 00:23:40,076 --> 00:23:42,476 Speaker 1: He said, you know, in roulette also total bullshit, because 373 00:23:42,516 --> 00:23:46,316 Speaker 1: that's just gambling, that's chance. So that's almost the you've 374 00:23:46,316 --> 00:23:47,796 Speaker 1: got the end of the spectrum. You can chess on 375 00:23:47,756 --> 00:23:50,036 Speaker 1: one of which is entirely rule based, and you can 376 00:23:50,036 --> 00:23:54,156 Speaker 1: solve with AI and coin flipping or roulette or total chance, 377 00:23:54,556 --> 00:23:58,556 Speaker 1: and somewhere in between is poker, and that's life too. Exactly. 378 00:23:58,796 --> 00:24:01,916 Speaker 1: Poker is the model for its decision making in life, 379 00:24:01,956 --> 00:24:04,836 Speaker 1: because both poker and life are games of incomplete information, 380 00:24:05,196 --> 00:24:07,556 Speaker 1: he said. In real life this is a quote from him, 381 00:24:07,916 --> 00:24:10,556 Speaker 1: which is one of my favorite quotes. He said, real 382 00:24:10,636 --> 00:24:14,876 Speaker 1: life consists of bluffing, of little tactics, of deception, of 383 00:24:14,916 --> 00:24:17,636 Speaker 1: trying to figure out what does this man think I 384 00:24:17,716 --> 00:24:22,716 Speaker 1: mean to do. Maria had never played poker and had 385 00:24:22,756 --> 00:24:24,916 Speaker 1: no clue how to act, but she set out to 386 00:24:24,956 --> 00:24:27,996 Speaker 1: become a professional poker player. The first thing she did 387 00:24:28,036 --> 00:24:31,956 Speaker 1: was hire a coach, a famous player, and you had 388 00:24:32,036 --> 00:24:34,796 Speaker 1: no idea of even the rules of the game. And 389 00:24:35,036 --> 00:24:37,196 Speaker 1: I told him that I didn't know much about poker. 390 00:24:37,476 --> 00:24:39,436 Speaker 1: I mean, I know that there are fifty four cards 391 00:24:39,436 --> 00:24:42,436 Speaker 1: in a duck and he just he said, wait, excuse me. 392 00:24:42,596 --> 00:24:45,156 Speaker 1: I just his face just changed and I said what 393 00:24:45,676 --> 00:24:47,436 Speaker 1: And he said how many cards are in a duck? 394 00:24:47,476 --> 00:24:49,636 Speaker 1: And now I start doubting myself a little. I said 395 00:24:49,676 --> 00:24:52,796 Speaker 1: fifty four and he's like, well, you know, theoretically with 396 00:24:52,836 --> 00:24:56,276 Speaker 1: the jokers, yes, but when we're doing odds calculations, it 397 00:24:56,276 --> 00:24:58,356 Speaker 1: would be better if you used fifty two, you know, 398 00:24:58,516 --> 00:25:03,156 Speaker 1: just to keep things a little simple. Is help me 399 00:25:03,196 --> 00:25:07,036 Speaker 1: list the ways pokers like life. One is that you're 400 00:25:07,076 --> 00:25:10,636 Speaker 1: never going to have or like life's dis making decisions 401 00:25:10,636 --> 00:25:13,756 Speaker 1: in life one is you you have incomplete information. You're 402 00:25:13,756 --> 00:25:16,956 Speaker 1: never gonna have perfect information. You know, you're never gonna 403 00:25:16,956 --> 00:25:21,716 Speaker 1: have perfect information, but you're getting more information, so you 404 00:25:22,076 --> 00:25:25,436 Speaker 1: have to update and respond to new information, which is 405 00:25:25,476 --> 00:25:29,476 Speaker 1: his own kind of skill. Right. And there are probabilities 406 00:25:29,476 --> 00:25:33,316 Speaker 1: that can be calculated, but they're only partially knowable, right, 407 00:25:33,716 --> 00:25:35,876 Speaker 1: Am I wrong about that? Correct? This is all correct? 408 00:25:36,036 --> 00:25:37,796 Speaker 1: Anything can you think of anything else that goes on. 409 00:25:38,436 --> 00:25:41,636 Speaker 1: So then you have, I mean, the incomplete information works 410 00:25:41,636 --> 00:25:44,236 Speaker 1: in a way where no one knows what cards you have, 411 00:25:44,796 --> 00:25:47,236 Speaker 1: and the only thing they can see is how you 412 00:25:47,276 --> 00:25:49,996 Speaker 1: act right. And that's true of all the other people too. 413 00:25:50,436 --> 00:25:53,196 Speaker 1: But when she started out, Maria really didn't know how 414 00:25:53,196 --> 00:25:55,596 Speaker 1: to act at a poker table. I was in a 415 00:25:55,676 --> 00:26:00,436 Speaker 1: totally foreign environment. I was suffering from major impostor syndrome. 416 00:26:00,876 --> 00:26:04,036 Speaker 1: Professional pokers about ninety seven to ninety eight percent mail. 417 00:26:04,356 --> 00:26:07,276 Speaker 1: So this is something where you know you are often 418 00:26:07,316 --> 00:26:09,996 Speaker 1: the only woman at the table, And so I was 419 00:26:10,116 --> 00:26:12,556 Speaker 1: letting things like, oh, I don't want them to think 420 00:26:12,556 --> 00:26:15,676 Speaker 1: I'm a bitch guide my decisions, or oh, well, you 421 00:26:15,676 --> 00:26:17,676 Speaker 1: know you're raising so much here, you can just take 422 00:26:17,676 --> 00:26:19,676 Speaker 1: the pot. It's fine, I don't need to win every 423 00:26:19,676 --> 00:26:24,636 Speaker 1: single one. Here you go. This isn't the story of 424 00:26:24,676 --> 00:26:26,956 Speaker 1: Maria's career as a poker player. You can read that 425 00:26:26,996 --> 00:26:30,396 Speaker 1: in the book. She eventually wrote the biggest bluff. She'd 426 00:26:30,396 --> 00:26:36,396 Speaker 1: wind up winning hundreds of thousands of dollars. Five cots 427 00:26:36,676 --> 00:26:40,076 Speaker 1: and Lonnie can hit to eliminate Maria Knakova. He's pretty 428 00:26:40,076 --> 00:26:44,036 Speaker 1: good at hitting this. Nope, he misses on this occasion 429 00:26:44,116 --> 00:26:51,036 Speaker 1: and Maria Knakova survives. For my own purposes here, I'm 430 00:26:51,076 --> 00:26:55,036 Speaker 1: interested in a single little lesson she learned about over confidence. 431 00:26:55,556 --> 00:26:58,396 Speaker 1: So I had this conversation with my coach and he 432 00:26:58,556 --> 00:27:02,036 Speaker 1: told me something that, taken with my work on over confidence, 433 00:27:02,316 --> 00:27:05,236 Speaker 1: I think, really got to kind of the heart of 434 00:27:05,236 --> 00:27:09,436 Speaker 1: the issue of confidence versus over confidence at the poker table. 435 00:27:09,836 --> 00:27:11,636 Speaker 1: So what he told me was that people who start 436 00:27:11,636 --> 00:27:14,916 Speaker 1: out playing poker tend to fall into one of two camps. 437 00:27:15,476 --> 00:27:20,236 Speaker 1: Either they are way too cautious, That's what I was doing. 438 00:27:20,276 --> 00:27:23,276 Speaker 1: You know, they're scared and they play scared. Or they 439 00:27:23,316 --> 00:27:27,476 Speaker 1: are way too aggressive. They bluff way too much. Bluffing 440 00:27:27,556 --> 00:27:30,996 Speaker 1: is to poker what man splitting is, the conversation a 441 00:27:31,116 --> 00:27:33,876 Speaker 1: pretense that you know more or have more than you 442 00:27:33,916 --> 00:27:37,916 Speaker 1: really do. It didn't come naturally to Maria. She didn't bluff. 443 00:27:38,316 --> 00:27:41,436 Speaker 1: She was suckered by men who did. So were the 444 00:27:41,476 --> 00:27:44,796 Speaker 1: other men, because when you haven't seen the other person 445 00:27:44,916 --> 00:27:48,796 Speaker 1: play well, you judge them by how they seem. When 446 00:27:49,436 --> 00:27:53,236 Speaker 1: nobody knows who you are, people tend to, at least 447 00:27:53,236 --> 00:27:55,116 Speaker 1: at the beginning, give you the benefit of the doubt. 448 00:27:55,836 --> 00:27:58,996 Speaker 1: So if you sit down at a new table and 449 00:27:59,276 --> 00:28:03,076 Speaker 1: you are incredibly aggressive. The first time you're incredibly aggressive, 450 00:28:03,076 --> 00:28:05,116 Speaker 1: people are probably going to assume you have a good 451 00:28:05,116 --> 00:28:07,716 Speaker 1: hand and they're going to fold. The second time, they'll 452 00:28:07,716 --> 00:28:10,156 Speaker 1: probably assume you have a good hand and they'll fold. 453 00:28:10,596 --> 00:28:12,796 Speaker 1: So he said, if you're going to pick one extreme, 454 00:28:12,876 --> 00:28:15,636 Speaker 1: you want to pick the aggressive extreme because aggressive players, 455 00:28:16,076 --> 00:28:19,396 Speaker 1: you know, they tend to win more often, because aggression 456 00:28:19,516 --> 00:28:22,036 Speaker 1: often pays off. So the first wave of washouts are 457 00:28:22,036 --> 00:28:24,436 Speaker 1: the cautious people. Yes, so I would have lost my 458 00:28:24,476 --> 00:28:28,316 Speaker 1: money long before the overconfident people. But also, when you're aggressive, 459 00:28:28,516 --> 00:28:32,436 Speaker 1: you put people in more difficult situations. So if you're passive, 460 00:28:32,516 --> 00:28:35,316 Speaker 1: you're easy to play against because other people can. Then 461 00:28:35,676 --> 00:28:37,836 Speaker 1: you know, they know that when you're betting, you're strong. 462 00:28:38,276 --> 00:28:40,476 Speaker 1: They know that when you're not betting, you're weak, and 463 00:28:40,596 --> 00:28:45,956 Speaker 1: you become predictable. In professional poker, this eventually works itself out. 464 00:28:46,436 --> 00:28:48,996 Speaker 1: You play thousands and thousands of hands with the same 465 00:28:49,036 --> 00:28:52,236 Speaker 1: person and you see their cards after they've bluffed, and 466 00:28:52,316 --> 00:28:54,436 Speaker 1: you learn not to take what they do at face value. 467 00:28:55,076 --> 00:28:57,596 Speaker 1: But in real life, we don't usually get to play 468 00:28:57,676 --> 00:29:00,476 Speaker 1: thousands of hands of the same game with the same people. 469 00:29:01,076 --> 00:29:03,636 Speaker 1: In real life, we go to a dinner party with 470 00:29:03,676 --> 00:29:07,996 Speaker 1: people we've never met. Real life is more like amateur poker. 471 00:29:09,116 --> 00:29:12,156 Speaker 1: When you're aggressive, it becomes much more difficult, especially if 472 00:29:12,196 --> 00:29:15,436 Speaker 1: you're smart. Aggressive that tends to win more money in 473 00:29:15,476 --> 00:29:21,436 Speaker 1: the short term because confidence, actually, you know, is something 474 00:29:21,556 --> 00:29:24,476 Speaker 1: at the poker table where confidence is part of the 475 00:29:24,516 --> 00:29:29,636 Speaker 1: information that other people have. Maria had set out to 476 00:29:29,676 --> 00:29:33,076 Speaker 1: see what poker could teach her about real life. One 477 00:29:33,156 --> 00:29:35,916 Speaker 1: big thing it taught her was the power of overconfidence 478 00:29:35,956 --> 00:29:40,116 Speaker 1: in all kinds of human interactions. Imagine two people coming 479 00:29:40,156 --> 00:29:43,116 Speaker 1: into an interview right and being asked the exact same question, 480 00:29:43,556 --> 00:29:46,516 Speaker 1: and someone asks me, okay, you know, do you know 481 00:29:46,556 --> 00:29:48,436 Speaker 1: how to do this? And I say, well, you know, 482 00:29:48,476 --> 00:29:50,476 Speaker 1: I haven't worked on it in the last five years, 483 00:29:50,516 --> 00:29:52,436 Speaker 1: but I can ramp up really quickly and I have 484 00:29:52,476 --> 00:29:56,596 Speaker 1: all these components skills. Other person comes in and says, yes, absolutely, 485 00:29:56,996 --> 00:29:59,316 Speaker 1: I could do it, no problem. Who's going to get 486 00:29:59,356 --> 00:30:02,756 Speaker 1: hired right to me? Who was who actually might know more? 487 00:30:03,116 --> 00:30:06,036 Speaker 1: Or the person who's like, yeah, totally, I know, I 488 00:30:06,076 --> 00:30:09,796 Speaker 1: know exactly what this is. That approach works. People who 489 00:30:09,836 --> 00:30:14,876 Speaker 1: are just overconfident oftentimes just get their way right right. 490 00:30:15,316 --> 00:30:17,756 Speaker 1: When you were learning, did you feel like, when you 491 00:30:17,796 --> 00:30:20,396 Speaker 1: were getting better, did you have a sense of yourself 492 00:30:20,836 --> 00:30:25,676 Speaker 1: masculinizing yourself. Yeah, that's a funny way of putting it, 493 00:30:25,716 --> 00:30:28,276 Speaker 1: but yeah I did. I had a conversation with my 494 00:30:28,356 --> 00:30:29,916 Speaker 1: husband at some point where I said I need to 495 00:30:30,036 --> 00:30:34,236 Speaker 1: grow bigger balls and he just looked at me like 496 00:30:34,396 --> 00:30:36,396 Speaker 1: I was totally insane, and I was like, you know, 497 00:30:36,436 --> 00:30:39,356 Speaker 1: I've just realized that I just I lack them completely 498 00:30:39,396 --> 00:30:41,916 Speaker 1: and that's not good. He's like, yes, you do lack, 499 00:30:43,316 --> 00:30:47,676 Speaker 1: and I'm okay with that. Here's the most unsettling thing 500 00:30:47,676 --> 00:30:50,996 Speaker 1: about man splaining, and also the most unsettling thing about 501 00:30:51,036 --> 00:30:54,156 Speaker 1: over confidence. Now that it's got a name, it just 502 00:30:54,196 --> 00:30:57,796 Speaker 1: seems pathetic when some old rich guy tries to tell 503 00:30:57,796 --> 00:31:01,236 Speaker 1: a famous female writer about her own book. We laugh, 504 00:31:02,916 --> 00:31:05,636 Speaker 1: but we missed the point. The point is that most 505 00:31:05,636 --> 00:31:08,276 Speaker 1: of the time he will leave that party feeling even 506 00:31:08,316 --> 00:31:26,316 Speaker 1: more confident than he did before. Against the Rules is 507 00:31:26,356 --> 00:31:29,076 Speaker 1: written and hosted by me Michael Lewis and produced by 508 00:31:29,116 --> 00:31:33,476 Speaker 1: Katherine Girardeau and Lydia Jean Cott. Julia Barton is our editor, 509 00:31:33,556 --> 00:31:36,996 Speaker 1: with additional editing by Audrey Dilling. Beth Johnson is our 510 00:31:37,036 --> 00:31:41,956 Speaker 1: fact checker and mil o'bell executive produces. Our music is 511 00:31:41,996 --> 00:31:45,836 Speaker 1: created by John Evans and Matthias Bossi, a Stellwagen stympanette. 512 00:31:46,476 --> 00:31:50,556 Speaker 1: We record our show at Berkeley Advanced Media Studios, expertly 513 00:31:50,596 --> 00:31:54,836 Speaker 1: helmed by Tofa Ruth. Thanks also to Jacob Weisberg, Heather Fame, 514 00:31:54,996 --> 00:32:00,116 Speaker 1: John Snars, Carl mcgilori, Christina Sullivan, Eric Sandler, Maggie Taylor, 515 00:32:00,636 --> 00:32:07,236 Speaker 1: Morgan Ratner, Nicole Morano, Royston Preserve, Daniella Lakhan, Mary Beth Smith, 516 00:32:07,556 --> 00:32:11,556 Speaker 1: and Jason Gambrel. Against the Rules is a production of 517 00:32:11,556 --> 00:32:14,796 Speaker 1: Pushkin Industries. If you love this show and others from 518 00:32:14,836 --> 00:32:19,236 Speaker 1: Pushkin Industries, consider subscribing to Pushkin Plus. Pushkin Plus is 519 00:32:19,236 --> 00:32:23,836 Speaker 1: a podcast subscription that offers bonus content and uninterrupted listening 520 00:32:23,836 --> 00:32:26,836 Speaker 1: for four dollars and ninety nine cents a month. Look 521 00:32:26,836 --> 00:32:30,996 Speaker 1: for Pushkin Plus on Apple Podcasts subscriptions. Keep in touch, 522 00:32:31,356 --> 00:32:34,436 Speaker 1: sign up for Pushkin's newsletter at pushkin dot Fm, or 523 00:32:34,516 --> 00:32:39,196 Speaker 1: follow at Pushkin Pods. Define more Pushkin Podcasts, listen on 524 00:32:39,236 --> 00:32:44,036 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. 525 00:32:50,516 --> 00:32:53,476 Speaker 1: I was thinking of my Rebetta Stulnes right, which I 526 00:32:53,516 --> 00:32:56,276 Speaker 1: totally forgot hold on, hold on tofa Are you recording this? 527 00:32:56,916 --> 00:32:58,996 Speaker 1: I was at a party and I was talking to 528 00:32:58,996 --> 00:33:01,636 Speaker 1: a guy who worked in tech, and he was explaining 529 00:33:01,676 --> 00:33:04,836 Speaker 1: to me how the business of podcasting works, and the 530 00:33:04,836 --> 00:33:08,036 Speaker 1: thing about it is. I was genuinely listening to him, 531 00:33:08,116 --> 00:33:10,916 Speaker 1: thinking that maybe he could tell me something I didn't 532 00:33:10,956 --> 00:33:14,276 Speaker 1: know for some reason, like just silently letting him talk 533 00:33:14,316 --> 00:33:18,316 Speaker 1: for like so long that eventually another guy who had 534 00:33:18,356 --> 00:33:22,956 Speaker 1: been overhearing the conversation interrupted and said, are you seriously 535 00:33:23,036 --> 00:33:26,356 Speaker 1: explaining to a professional podcast or the business of podcasting? 536 00:33:26,956 --> 00:33:30,636 Speaker 1: And what did the guy do? Then he got embarrassed 537 00:33:30,636 --> 00:33:33,876 Speaker 1: and he stopped talking. Yes, but think how many times 538 00:33:33,876 --> 00:33:37,756 Speaker 1: that happens and nobody ever says anything. Yeah, well I 539 00:33:37,756 --> 00:33:38,636 Speaker 1: didn't say anything.