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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern, Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app,

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Speaker 1: and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: A new week dawns with no Speaker of the House

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Speaker 2: and no ground invasion of Gazam. Welcome to the fastest

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Speaker 2: show in politics, as we pick things up on this Monday,

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Speaker 2: the House returning to the Capitol with a speaker's race

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Speaker 2: that starts all over again today with now nine candidates

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Speaker 2: vying for the gavel in the US meantime beefing up

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Speaker 2: its presence in the Middle East on concerns of a

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Speaker 2: potentially widening conflict. We're joined this hour by Terry Haynes

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Speaker 2: of Pangaea Policy on next steps in finding a speaker,

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Speaker 2: and with new polling now showing Donald Trump feeling the

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Speaker 2: pitch of r FK's independent run for president, We're going

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Speaker 2: to get analysis from our signature panel on all these stories.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano are with

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Speaker 2: us for the hour where it begins and new members

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Speaker 2: of the House trickling back into town here as they

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Speaker 2: are set to start the process all over again, of course,

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Speaker 2: the process of finding a new speaker. Republicans holding a

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Speaker 2: closed door candidates forum once again tonight, start six thirty

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Speaker 2: pm Washington time. If you're playing along on your home game,

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Speaker 2: and we have the largest number of candidates we have

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Speaker 2: seen yet now nine members of the House running for speaker.

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Speaker 2: Nine So where's the count when you need him? Eight

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Speaker 2: line time, Yes, nine, and most Americans have never heard

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Speaker 2: of them. Congressman Tom Emmer, the majority whip, by the

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Speaker 2: nature of his job, may be the best known, but

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Speaker 2: none seem to have a path to two seventeen. And

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Speaker 2: the man who last held the job put it this

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Speaker 2: way yesterday on Meet the Press. This is not a

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Speaker 2: time to play games.

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Speaker 3: This is This is embarrassing for the Republican Party.

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Speaker 2: It's embarrassing for the nation. Embarrassing, says Kevin McCarthy. Michael McCall,

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Speaker 2: who of course chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, was

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Speaker 2: with us last week here on Bloomberg, echoing the sentiment

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Speaker 2: on ABC this week, I have.

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Speaker 4: To say it's my tenth tournament Congress. This is probably

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Speaker 4: one of the most embarrassing things I've seen, because if

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Speaker 4: we don't have a Speaker of the House. We can't govern,

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Speaker 4: and every day goes by, we're essentially shut down as

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Speaker 4: a government. We have very important issues right now, Warren peace,

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Speaker 4: and we cannot deal with an aid package or my

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Speaker 4: resolution condemning amass and supporting Israel.

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Speaker 3: We can't.

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Speaker 5: You can't even pass a resolution condemning AMAS.

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Speaker 2: A resolution, never mind a bill which brings us to

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Speaker 2: Billy House Bloomberg, Congress reporter. He's back with us now

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Speaker 2: with big question marks. At the start of this week,

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Speaker 2: Billy gets, good to see you. You're with us from

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Speaker 2: the House of Representatives where this is all about to

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Speaker 2: tip off here, We've got nine candidates. How's it going

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Speaker 2: to work here? When voting begins, they all kind of

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Speaker 2: make their stump speech tonight and then each round will

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Speaker 2: bring some level of progress tomorrow. Is that how you

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Speaker 2: see it?

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Speaker 6: Exactly? Tonight, around six thirty they gather behind closed doors

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Speaker 6: for what seems like it will be a little bit

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Speaker 6: like Hollywood Squares. Nine candidates each giving brief opening remarks

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Speaker 6: and then one and a half hour question and answer

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Speaker 6: period followed by closing remarks. Then tomorrow morning they begin

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Speaker 6: balloting behind closed doors and of course, there's no winner

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Speaker 6: until somebody gets a majority of the two hundred and

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Speaker 6: twenty one member conference. So that's one hundred and eleven votes,

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Speaker 6: and that could take several rounds. Each round the lowest

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Speaker 6: boat getter drops out, and so it could go for

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Speaker 6: a long time.

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Speaker 2: So this is kind of like a ranked choice thing.

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Speaker 2: I guess maybe that's not what we call it. But

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Speaker 2: to Billy's point, each each vote, the person who got

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Speaker 2: the lease rolls off the back. So the idea here

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Speaker 2: is that by the end of the day we've coalesced

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Speaker 2: around someone and Tom Emmer keeps getting the talk. Here

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Speaker 2: he's the majority whip. Billy, by the nature of his job,

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Speaker 2: you'd think he might have the institutional wherewithal to get

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Speaker 2: this done. But they said the same thing about Steve'scalise.

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Speaker 2: How does it play for Tom?

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Speaker 6: Ever, right exactly, He's probably at the top of the list.

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Speaker 6: There's others that are very competitive, maybe Byron Donald's, maybe

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Speaker 6: Kevin Hearn who headed an informal caucus of Conservatives.

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Speaker 2: But the problem.

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Speaker 6: With Scalise and Jordan both were that they got the

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Speaker 6: hundred eleven, they just couldn't get the two hundred and

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Speaker 6: seventeen on the House floor, and Emmer has had a

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Speaker 6: long standing kind of tense relationship with former President Trump,

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Speaker 6: So the big question would be if he landed on

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Speaker 6: the floor, would Trump direct his supporters to block Emmer

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Speaker 6: or are the negotiations said to be going on now.

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Speaker 2: Unbelievable. So now this Trump thing is all about the

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Speaker 2: fact that Emmer voted to certify the election. Right He's

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Speaker 2: publicly been a Trump supporter at every turn.

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Speaker 6: Otherwise pretty much so, although he's kind of it at times,

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Speaker 6: suggested when he was head of the political arm for

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Speaker 6: the Republicans that members should sometimes worry about their districts

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Speaker 6: more than pacifying Trump. That's kind of set off some

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Speaker 6: suggestions there's tension. But right, he and Austin Scott are

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Speaker 6: the only two of the nine who did not go

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Speaker 6: along with certifying both Arizona and Pennsylvania in the twenty

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Speaker 6: twenty election.

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Speaker 2: And that's all it takes in this I guess modern

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Speaker 2: Republican party here, So you're in for a long one

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Speaker 2: I guess Billy nine speeches. They do they get a

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Speaker 2: clock on these at the candidate's former thease get five

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Speaker 2: or ten minutes or how does it work?

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Speaker 6: My understanding. They each open up with about a two

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Speaker 6: minute statement, then they have the group question and answered,

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Speaker 6: then a closing statement of about a minute.

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Speaker 2: Excellent. Great to have you back, Billy. If you're curious,

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Speaker 2: by the way, to see the most authentic shot on

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Speaker 2: Capitol Hill, join us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News.

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Speaker 2: You can watch this program now and you can see

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Speaker 2: Billy House in the spot where it all happens in

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Speaker 2: the House gallery. It's great to see you, Billy, the

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Speaker 2: most authentic Congress reporter in the appropriate setting. As we

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Speaker 2: add Terry Haynes to the mix, I thought about you

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Speaker 2: all weekend, Terry Haynes, Pangaea Policy Founder, because we've had

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Speaker 2: such great conversations around all of this, and Terry is

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Speaker 2: actually one of the only people in the Capitol who

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Speaker 2: understands this, the way this works with a speaker a

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Speaker 2: pro tempt. He helped to write the language here after

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Speaker 2: nine to eleven as a senior House staffer and has

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Speaker 2: a different view than some folks do about all of this.

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Speaker 2: And we'll probably get to that, Terry, because we still

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Speaker 2: have two resolutions ready to go that would make Patrick

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Speaker 2: McHenry an empowered speaker. But we're going to go through

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Speaker 2: the motions here all over again. Hold the chain of

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Speaker 2: command conversation, because we have nine people who think they

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Speaker 2: should hold that gabble, yet none of them seem to

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Speaker 2: have a path to two seventeen. Is this a total

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Speaker 2: waste of time exercise in futility this week? Or does

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Speaker 2: someone emerge as a potential speaker?

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Speaker 7: You know, I think it's I think it's less likely

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Speaker 7: rather than more likely that we get a speaker this week.

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Speaker 7: But the because I think, frankly, people aren't exhausted enough.

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Speaker 7: What you had in the first two rounds essentially were

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Speaker 7: very known quantities that had a great deal of support

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Speaker 7: from what i'll call the purest wing of the of

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Speaker 7: the House Republican Conference. We don't have that this time.

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Speaker 7: What we have are a bunch of folks that can

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Speaker 7: put themselves up is compromise candidates, including mister Emmer, who's

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Speaker 7: by far the most well known of them. As you

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Speaker 7: said and as Billy said, but you know, the essential

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Speaker 7: problems the same, which is, you know, there's no obvious

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Speaker 7: path to two seventeen. Number one, number two, It's very

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Speaker 7: unlikely that the vast majority of these people, other than

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Speaker 7: mister Emmer have the ability to have the experience, I

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Speaker 7: should say, with everybody in the House, to feel kind

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Speaker 7: of trusted enough that there's actually a track record there

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Speaker 7: that they you know, that would make folks on the

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Speaker 7: centrist wing and the purest wing feel that they would

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Speaker 7: have a decent speaker. So I think we're going to

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Speaker 7: go through this exercise, and what we're going to have is,

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Speaker 7: after two rounds where the more conservative, well known candidates

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Speaker 7: don't do well, you're going to have a group of

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Speaker 7: folks that you know, frankly aren't senior enough or trust

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Speaker 7: it enough. And then we'll get down to brass tax

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Speaker 7: figure out what the who that is, who the next

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Speaker 7: speaker is for real. They may jump over that and

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Speaker 7: end up with em or that's entirely possible, but it

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Speaker 7: doesn't feel like that right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, fewer than seven of the nine have been in

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Speaker 2: Congress fewer than ten years, which I find interesting. You

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Speaker 2: write in your note to clients, Terry, there's no forcing

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Speaker 2: event requiring House Republicans to act immediately, a newpoint to

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Speaker 2: November seventeenth, which of course is the date of a

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Speaker 2: government shutdown. There are many in the Republican Conference who

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Speaker 2: are not phased by that, And I wonder if it's

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Speaker 2: a potential invasion of Gaza that actually lights the fire

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Speaker 2: here and creates new urgency under this process when resources

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Speaker 2: will be badly needed in Israel and that supplemental budget

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Speaker 2: request the president's making has to be dealt with.

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Speaker 7: Well, I wouldn't say it's the let me answer it

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Speaker 7: this way. I wouldn't say it's the Gaza invasion. I

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Speaker 7: would say it's the prospect of expansion into a regional war.

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Speaker 7: If you get some sort of serious pushback through the

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Speaker 7: goal on heights or something, and it becomes clear that

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Speaker 7: Israel's going to be in a two front war here,

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Speaker 7: I think, you know, things get booted along pretty well.

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Speaker 5: Firstly.

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Speaker 7: Secondly, I think the president's request alone isn't enough to

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Speaker 7: do it. As as of yesterday anyway, I haven't seen

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Speaker 7: anything different. The formal request in its entirety still hasn't

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Speaker 7: gone to the Senate or the Congress. It's gone part

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Speaker 7: of it's gone to the Senate, the foreign aid part,

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Speaker 7: but the border stuff is not. And so I think

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Speaker 7: that the Senate is, by the way it is, intends

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Speaker 7: to try to start dealing with the request. Not this week,

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Speaker 7: but next week. So and the Senate I think is

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Speaker 7: far more likely to shape the final the final version

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Speaker 7: of the aid requests for Israel and Ukraine than the

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Speaker 7: House is. So you know, the House I think has

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Speaker 7: got frankly, got another couple of weeks where they can

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Speaker 7: be on the sidelines and things don't matter very much

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Speaker 7: from from a policy perspective.

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Speaker 2: Frankly, Serry Punchbowl is reporting that Donald Trump and Tom

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Speaker 2: Emmer spoke on Saturday. We know that Donald Trump's apparently

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Speaker 2: not a fan because Emmer voted to certify the election.

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Speaker 2: It's you can you can have a whole separate conversation

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Speaker 2: about that. But to what extent, after the implosion we

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Speaker 2: saw with the Jordan endorsement, to what extent does Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump matter here?

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Speaker 7: I think Trump matters in the sense that that no

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Speaker 7: matter who the nominee is, that he can't he can't

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Speaker 7: go strong negative and that's probably on the nominee and

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Speaker 7: that's probably what Emmer is trying to foreclose. You know,

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Speaker 7: I haven't said, you know, Billy, you and Billy talked

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Speaker 7: about this and put it very well, but I haven't

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Speaker 7: seen anything that indicates, like sort of hard evidence to

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Speaker 7: indicate that that Emmer is, you know, sort of hard

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Speaker 7: over negative on Trump, and you know a lot of

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Speaker 7: people have been probing from a lot of different points

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Speaker 7: of view, So you know, Trump and Emmer probably need

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Speaker 7: to be generally good with each other to go forward.

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Speaker 7: You don't want the person who's the former president and

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Speaker 7: the person leading in the polls for the next nomination

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Speaker 7: to be negative on you. But at the same time,

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Speaker 7: you know Emmer doesn't need to be captured by Trump either,

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Speaker 7: So there's there's got to be a kind of an

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Speaker 7: uneasy truce that goes forward.

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Speaker 2: Here well as we try to figure out points of influence.

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Speaker 2: Then Terry Kevin McCarthy endorsed Tom Emmer. He talked about

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Speaker 2: it yesterday I meet the press. Some folks thought that

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Speaker 2: was like getting the cover of the front of the

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Speaker 2: Whai's box here. Does that help or hurt Tom Emmer

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Speaker 2: to have Kevin McCarthy's support.

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Speaker 7: I think that probably helps. Frankly, you have again, you know,

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Speaker 7: everybody knows the math, but you've got ninety five percent

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Speaker 7: of the conference who would have been fine with having

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Speaker 7: McCarthy stay in the in the seat anyway. So to

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Speaker 7: have McCarthy in your corner and is important. Number one.

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Speaker 7: Number two two. By implication, McCarthy and others can also

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Speaker 7: weigh in with Trump to just say, hey, look, you know,

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Speaker 7: just you know, back off the guy. He's all right

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Speaker 7: in so many words, And I think that's very likely happening.

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Speaker 2: So what do you think of this process? They go

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Speaker 2: back into eleven hundred long worth tonight. I believe that's

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Speaker 2: the ways it means. Committee room, close the doors at

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Speaker 2: six point thirty, everybody gets a couple of minutes. We've

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Speaker 2: got nine to go through here, Terry, and the voting

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Speaker 2: will leave someone off the island in each round. What

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Speaker 2: do you make of the process here based on what

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Speaker 2: we've seen not work already?

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Speaker 7: I think the process allows The process allows aggregation. Let

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Speaker 7: me put it that way, to the extent that any

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Speaker 7: of the other eight have support, no matter how small,

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Speaker 7: they can help em or actually roll up a pretty

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Speaker 7: large vote if they then say, Okay, if it's not me,

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Speaker 7: it's going to be Emmer. Let's say and Emmer is.

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Speaker 7: I think working on that assumption as well, that one

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Speaker 7: way he can present himself very strongly is to make

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Speaker 7: sure that the other candidates are available to endorse him.

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Speaker 7: And I think the vast majority of them will either

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Speaker 7: explicitly or implicitly endorse him, So he got to be

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Speaker 7: in a pretty good position going in. So we are

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Speaker 7: back to, you know, unlike the last two rounds, where

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Speaker 7: we're back where the Centrists essentially exercise some power to

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Speaker 7: make sure that the speaker wasn't going to end up

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Speaker 7: being too conservative and put the majority in them personally

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Speaker 7: in some peril. I think we're in a position here

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Speaker 7: where Emmer is going to try to be a little

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Speaker 7: bit more of a tabula rasa and appeal across the board. Lightly,

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Speaker 7: but across the board. It's the best gambit he's got,

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Speaker 7: so he might as well shoot.

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Speaker 2: It well, as you make in your note to clients.

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Speaker 2: And as you just said, you don't think we're going

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Speaker 2: to have this solved this week. And I only have

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Speaker 2: thirty seconds left here, Terry. Does that mean Patrick McHenry

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Speaker 2: drops a CR on the floor to avoid a shutdown

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Speaker 2: if it comes to it.

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Speaker 7: If it comes to it, yeah, but we've still got

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Speaker 7: three or four weeks left to go. And you know,

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Speaker 7: as I've said before, and we'll say again, when there

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Speaker 7: is an actual crisis, whether it's a CR or an

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Speaker 7: invasion of Israel or whatever it is. You're going to

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Speaker 7: see this whole. We can't act because there's no speaker.

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Speaker 7: Thing get dropped like a hot potato.

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Speaker 2: You heard it again from Terry Haynes. He helped to

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Speaker 2: write the rules and we appreciate that. Look at McCaw chat,

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Speaker 2: he drops that gavel every time. Join us on YouTube

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Speaker 2: so you can see Patrick McHenry and Terry Haynes. I'm

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Speaker 2: Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, Tune

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Speaker 1: in alf bloom dot com and the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Should the Republican led House start taking cues? Maybe some

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Speaker 2: direction from what happened in eighteen fifty five. We talked

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Speaker 2: about this back in January when Kevin McCarthy went fifteen rounds.

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Speaker 2: Remember they said how long could this go on?

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Speaker 7: For?

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Speaker 2: Try two months? That's what happened in eighteen fifty five.

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Speaker 2: Libby Cantrell at PIMCO is writing about it. In her

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Speaker 2: note to clients today, the deeply divided House took more

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Speaker 2: than two months after twenty one candidates vied for the speakership.

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Speaker 2: And get this, one hundred thirty three rounds might take

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Speaker 2: us a minute to break that record. Ultimately, representative banks

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Speaker 2: of Massachusetts be representative aken of South Carolina one ozh

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Speaker 2: three to one hundred. That was six years before the

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Speaker 2: Civil War, and, as Libby writes Congress as the nation

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Speaker 2: was deeply divided over slavery, immigration more broadly, the future

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Speaker 2: of the Republic. Is that starting to sound familiar? Let's

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Speaker 2: assemble our panel. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano join Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Politics contributors with the view from both sides of the aisle.

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Speaker 2: It's great to see you both here. We got through

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Speaker 2: another weekend, but we still have no speaker. And Rick,

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Speaker 2: I'll start with you nine up here for the candidate's

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Speaker 2: forum tonight. Will anything happen this week that didn't happen

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Speaker 2: last week?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 8: I think my bet would be you'd see kind of

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Speaker 8: a reoccurrent the Groundhog Day effect where the somebody will win,

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Speaker 8: you know, a plurality, you know of the Republican Caucus.

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Speaker 8: Get the nomination probably Emmer first round up, you'll go

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Speaker 8: down the floor and you'll get nowhere near two hundred

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Speaker 8: and seventeen votes.

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Speaker 2: So you know, Nod needs in.

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Speaker 8: Front how long he wants to stay in so he'll

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Speaker 8: he'll get as many votes as he wants until he

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Speaker 8: realizes he can't get to two seventeen, and we'll do

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Speaker 8: it all over again. I think the point Terry made

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Speaker 8: earlier was that if you think we're going to have

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Speaker 8: a speaker this week, you're probably much more optimistic than

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Speaker 8: anybody else on Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 2: So it's shades of eighteen fifty five, Genie, do we

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Speaker 2: go one hundred and thirty three rounds? I mean, I

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Speaker 2: guess at a certain point here you just wonder how

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Speaker 2: long we could go without a speaker. I know we've

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Speaker 2: got a government shut down set for November seventeenth, but hey,

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Speaker 2: we could roll right through that too.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, Joe, I like how you're saying, you know, on

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Speaker 9: the bright side, we're not just you know, on the

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Speaker 9: cusp of the civil war. That's pretty much the optimistic

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Speaker 9: view of this. And you know the reality is is

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Speaker 9: that unless they are prepared to lock the doors when

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Speaker 9: they go into that caucus this week and keep them

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Speaker 9: shut in there with no breaks until they get to

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Speaker 9: two seventeen and promise not to violate their pledge when

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Speaker 9: they come out to the floor. We aren't going to

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Speaker 9: see a speaker this week, and of course they're not

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Speaker 9: going to do that. Nobody is close to getting two

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Speaker 9: seventeen at this point as far as we can tell.

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Speaker 9: So we are right back where we started from what

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Speaker 9: twenty days ago now, and the reality is is that

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Speaker 9: they are going to have to either agree to put

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Speaker 9: party above self or they are going to have to

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Speaker 9: go with a temporary, you know, speaker, you know, potentially

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Speaker 9: a McHenry, a speaker pro tempt more powers. Because of

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Speaker 9: course we are what eight legislative days from November seventeenth

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Speaker 9: when our government shuts down, amongst many other things that

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Speaker 9: are looming very closely ahead.

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Speaker 2: So we've still got our eyes on Patrick McHenry. Then, Rick,

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Speaker 2: and I wonder what you think about Terry's view on that.

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Speaker 2: We know how Terry feels. He thinks that Patrick McHenry

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Speaker 2: could just start acting like the speaker today, bring a

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Speaker 2: bill to the floor. The language allows for it is

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Speaker 2: that how this ends.

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Speaker 8: It could I mean, I think Terry's point about you

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Speaker 8: need an action forcing event like the cr winding out

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Speaker 8: or some other important event to.

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Speaker 10: Make things happen.

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Speaker 8: And by the way, that's always the case in the

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Speaker 8: House of Representatives. They never get their work done early.

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Speaker 8: And so I think that's one preregreisent too. It really does.

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Speaker 8: It is kind of like a shame that Patrick McHenry

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Speaker 8: is where he is, because he knows that if he

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Speaker 8: starts acting like Speaker and starts taking on the role,

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Speaker 8: that he's doomed with his own caucus. Right, he is

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Speaker 8: one of these guys who's actually pretty well liked amongst everybody.

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Speaker 2: He gets a lot done.

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Speaker 8: He cut these deals with Biden on debt limits and

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Speaker 8: things like that, and.

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Speaker 10: He's having the time of his life and his career.

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Speaker 8: And now he's in a job where everyone's going to

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Speaker 8: hate him no matter what he does. And so I

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Speaker 8: think he's just shocked that he's found himself in this position.

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Speaker 8: You see his interviews, and he's forlorned as to what

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Speaker 8: he's supposed to do. And by the way, nobody's given

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Speaker 8: him advice.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 8: The former Speaker McCarthy says, no, we want emmer now. Oh,

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Speaker 8: but we wanted Jordan then, I mean like they want

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Speaker 8: their own people. No one's saying, hey, why don't you

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Speaker 8: do this? And the Democrats are just waiting to laugh

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Speaker 8: about it. So I think it's he's stuck in a

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Speaker 8: really intolerable position.

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Speaker 5: He's basically going to have to decide.

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Speaker 8: That, you know, it's more important to act like a

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Speaker 8: speaker than to have a comfy relationship with his own caucus.

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Speaker 2: Well, we may find out how much of a grown

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Speaker 2: up he really is if that's the case. We heard

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Speaker 2: from Michael McCall over the weekend, the Chairman of the

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Speaker 2: House Foreign Affairs. He was talking on ABC this week

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Speaker 2: about the state of affairs around the world creating its

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Speaker 2: own level of urgency. Unclear if it's enough your point, though, Rick,

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Speaker 2: there could be some event that spawns action here on

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Speaker 2: Capitol Hill. McCall thinks it's already happening.

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Speaker 4: I want a speaker in the chair so we can

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Speaker 4: move forward and go my issues, my Committee of War

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Speaker 4: and Peace. It's too dangerous right now. The world's on fire,

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Speaker 4: and this is so dangerous what we're doing. And most importantly,

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Speaker 4: it's embarrassing because it empowers and emboldens our adversaries like

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Speaker 4: Chairman she who says, you know, democracy doesn't work.

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Speaker 2: The world is on fire right now, Rick, what's the

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Speaker 2: approach if you're a candidate standing before the Republican Conference tonight,

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Speaker 2: what do you have to say about Israel and Ukraine,

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Speaker 2: never mind Taiwan and border security? As the President wants

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Speaker 2: to put all these together into one Billy and Mitch

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Speaker 2: McConnell out over the weekend supporting this, What do you

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Speaker 2: have to say to get support in the House on

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Speaker 2: this matter.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, Look, I think generally speaking, the House is willing

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Speaker 8: to receive these kinds of offers. We heard from Terry

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Speaker 8: that there's not a lot of clarity around the border situation.

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Speaker 8: But that's like protecting the United States's democracy, right, I mean,

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Speaker 8: like we talk about putting money into Taiwan, putting money

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Speaker 8: into Ukraine, putting money into Israel to protect their democracies.

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Speaker 8: The border money is to protect our democracy. So they

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Speaker 8: have a lot of you know, sort of connective tissue

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Speaker 8: that exists there. And I think that's all these guys

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Speaker 8: have to do is say, look, I don't really care

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Speaker 8: which one of these that you care most about. You

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Speaker 8: ought to care about our country most and our position

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Speaker 8: in the world, and we're under assault by all these

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Speaker 8: other pretenders and we've got to do something about it.

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Speaker 8: And this is the time. The reality is, it doesn't

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Speaker 8: matter how many of them tore sent. If you had

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Speaker 8: an open vote, you have three hundred people vote for this,

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Speaker 8: you know, combined bill in the House of Representatives. It's

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Speaker 8: just the crazy eights and others who don't want to

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Speaker 8: see government act on anything. We're trying to hold up

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Speaker 8: the process.

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Speaker 2: You've got sixty billion in there for Ukraine, though, Genie,

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Speaker 2: would the message tonight not be break it up, Let's

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Speaker 2: get standalone own votes on Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and yes,

437
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,160
Speaker 2: by god, border security. Wouldn't that be a standing out

438
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,399
Speaker 2: in the room Or is that just Matt Gates clapping?

439
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 9: Yeah, you'd have some, you'd probably have those eight clapping.

440
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 9: The reality is is that they do not have the

441
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:20,199
Speaker 9: votes to pass this, and so they are going to

442
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:23,440
Speaker 9: have to struggle to move this forward. And you know,

443
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 9: it's fascinating because you'd think, on the one hand, what

444
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,360
Speaker 9: happened last week, both sides tired each other out by

445
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:34,359
Speaker 9: voting down their favored skit candidates, and yet that doesn't

446
00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:37,159
Speaker 9: seem to happen. Terry just said, they're not exhausted. I

447
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 9: don't know what it's going to take to get these

448
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 9: folks exhausted, but we're all exhausted watching this, and so

449
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,639
Speaker 9: they need to look around the world and see. To

450
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 9: McCall's point, what is going on and what struck me

451
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 9: this weekend was over and over for the first time

452
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:55,440
Speaker 9: we heard the word from Republicans that they are embarrassed.

453
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 9: We've been using that word, but they haven't. And so

454
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 9: maybe that's a sign exhaustion coming. But if it's not,

455
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 9: we are in for more of this until they decide.

456
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,439
Speaker 9: And in the meantime, you've got Ukraine, you've got Israel,

457
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,919
Speaker 9: you've got the border, all of these issues, not to

458
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 9: mention Taiwan, and we've got a government that is shutting

459
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:19,400
Speaker 9: down in you know, just about eight working days.

460
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 2: Incredible, that's incredible to think about. Patrick McHenry. Uh, he's

461
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:27,920
Speaker 2: just going to be swinging that gavel harder and harder

462
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:33,880
Speaker 2: and harder until this is resolved. Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis,

463
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 2: great to have you both with us here as we

464
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,879
Speaker 2: turn to the campaign trail coming up. Israel is having

465
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,919
Speaker 2: an impact in the Republican primary, and we've got new

466
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:46,159
Speaker 2: numbers out today that for the first time codify what

467
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 2: Rick and Genie were talking about. RFK Junior splitting off

468
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,679
Speaker 2: from the Democrats to run an independent campaign appears to

469
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:55,399
Speaker 2: be having an impact on Donald Trump.

470
00:25:56,720 --> 00:26:01,119
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast live weekdays

471
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 1: at one Eastern, Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, and

472
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app, or there's non demand wherever you

473
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 1: get your podcast.

474
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,680
Speaker 2: The conflict in Israel is finally having an impact on

475
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:19,200
Speaker 2: the Republican campaign trail as candidates look for any opportunity

476
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 2: to find daylight between them and a race that is

477
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,239
Speaker 2: still deadlocked here and we're going to look at new

478
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:27,399
Speaker 2: numbers coming up to show just how well Donald Trump

479
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:30,119
Speaker 2: is doing with regard to the rest of the field,

480
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 2: though RFK Junior remains a bit of a question mark.

481
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,920
Speaker 2: Let's reassemble our panel. Jeanie Shanzo and Rick Davis are

482
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 2: with us Bloomberg Politics contributors as we see a new

483
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 2: ad drop. I don't know if you guys saw this

484
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:45,199
Speaker 2: coming from the Never Back Down pack. This is the

485
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:49,399
Speaker 2: Ronda Santis pack. He's trying to go after Nicky Haley,

486
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 2: remembering that she was the UN ambassador on the matter

487
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 2: of Israel, and what he apparently sees is her history

488
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 2: of supporting Palestini in causes. You can hear the ad

489
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 2: it's called Nicky flip flops Covin Harley. If you believe

490
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:12,639
Speaker 2: that it advances US interests to provide food, jobs, homes

491
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 2: to the people of the West Bank.

492
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,359
Speaker 9: And Gossam, Yes, I mean I think that we need

493
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 9: to do whatever we can't protect the region anytime that

494
00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,679
Speaker 9: we can help mankind, regardless of where they are in

495
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 9: what country they're in.

496
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 2: It's essentially a string of comments from her on video

497
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 2: in that first instance, testifying as UN ambassador on Capitol

498
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 2: hill Rick, What do you make of this among candidates

499
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 2: who really probably don't have much difference when it comes

500
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 2: to the issue of Israel. Will this get to be

501
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 2: a louder element on the campaign trail?

502
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 8: You know, I don't think so. I think this is

503
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 8: more representative of kind of a you know, flagging campaign

504
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 8: by Ron de Santists to try and figure out who's

505
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 8: next to him that he can try to run down

506
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 8: in order to pick up some extra oxygen votes. In Iowa,

507
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:05,360
Speaker 8: he's having a hard time moving now past his sort

508
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 8: of fifteen percent that we see in the polls a

509
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 8: lot in Iowa, even less in New Hampshire. I think

510
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 8: by and large Nicky Haley has over taking him in

511
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 8: New Hampshire, and of course is considered one of the

512
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 8: two favorite sons for South Carolina. So he's in a

513
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:25,360
Speaker 8: tough spot. He's not running against Donald Trump anymore. He's

514
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 8: trying to be now preserve his second place, which I

515
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:33,159
Speaker 8: think is pretty much over. So he's got a narrow

516
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 8: focus here. I doubt if much is going to get

517
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 8: picked up on this. Remember she's saying all these things,

518
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 8: is she represented the Trump administration an attack on Nicky

519
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 8: Haley as an attack on Donald Trump. Most of these

520
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 8: guys aren't got stomach for that, so she's got some

521
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 8: protection in that regard.

522
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 2: Well, we've got new numbers out from USA today Suffolk

523
00:28:54,800 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 2: University Genie Trump fifty eight, Desantus twelve forty six percent

524
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 2: lead Haley eleven. So Desantas and Haley essentially tied here.

525
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 2: And it's the hypothetical that's getting all the talk. We've

526
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 2: talked about the impact or not that RFK Junior could

527
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:13,600
Speaker 2: have on this race, and it seems to be bearing

528
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 2: out here with the headline in US today today it's

529
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 2: a tie with a year ago Joe Biden Donald Trump

530
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 2: each command thirty seven percent of the vote in a

531
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 2: hypothetical matchup as independent Robert F. Kennedy Junior Genie cost

532
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 2: Donald Trump what would have been his narrow lead. So,

533
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 2: if you were wondering the impact it plays out in

534
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 2: this poll. How much of a problem for Trump is

535
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 2: RFK Junior?

536
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:42,520
Speaker 9: You know, I think he is an enormous problem. And

537
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 9: the fact is, and you know, the Clinton folks can

538
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:50,719
Speaker 9: tell you this from there, go at the presidential election

539
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 9: in twenty sixteen, when the elections are going to be

540
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 9: as tight as we expect this one will be. In

541
00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 9: twenty twenty four, an independent candidate like an RFK junior,

542
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 9: or in the case of twenty sixteen for Hillary Clinton

543
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 9: and Jill Stein, in one or two of these tight

544
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 9: states can be the difference of a few thousand votes,

545
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 9: which cost you the electoral college. So I think critically

546
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 9: important for these candidates is to watch the state by

547
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:25,479
Speaker 9: state polls on this, and that's where you can see

548
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 9: this costing enough votes to move the electoral college and

549
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 9: so I think this is an enormous concern for the

550
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 9: Trump folks. What's fascinating is when RFK entered this race,

551
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 9: it was the Biden folks who are terribly concerned. I

552
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 9: By the way, they still need to be concerned, because again,

553
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 9: a few thousand votes can cost him a state like

554
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 9: Pennsylvania or Arizona, or Minnesota or Michigan. But now it's

555
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 9: the Trump folks feeling the same heat, and that has

556
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 9: got to be a concern.

557
00:30:57,200 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 2: You predicted this, Rick Davis, when Arek Junior left the

558
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 2: Democratic field to run as an independent. Is there going

559
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 2: to be a race now between RFK and Trump to

560
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 2: seize on the vaccine denier vote.

561
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 8: Yeah, no, it's it's a tricky calculus for Trump. Trump

562
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 8: tends to run against everybody all the time, so this

563
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 8: is kind of not unwelcome to him. I would say

564
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 8: it comes at a bad time for Trump because he

565
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:28,720
Speaker 8: does seem to be making up some headway with independent voters,

566
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 8: and now all of a sudden, you know, they've got

567
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 8: an independent to vote for, and so they may certainly

568
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 8: the more conservative ones may gravitate that way. I think

569
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 8: a lot of this, though, just has to be reminded constantly,

570
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 8: we're in a deadlock in the country, right, Genie mentioned

571
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 8: the twenty sixteen election almost dead, even twenty twenty election

572
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 8: almost dead. Even this one is going to be almost

573
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 8: dead even no matter who the nominees of the two

574
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 8: parties are. So I think that one of the things

575
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 8: that we're going to be talking about a lot is

576
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,080
Speaker 8: the effect of these third party candidates. I would say

577
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 8: Cornell West has as much potential impact in a state

578
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 8: that's key to Joe Biden, like Michigan, than JFK would

579
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 8: have against Donald Trump, even though it could it could

580
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 8: manifest itself more nationally, and then we're all holding our

581
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 8: breath to see what happens with those no label guys

582
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 8: because they enter this race and you have more capacity

583
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 8: for you know, third party candidates than you even have today.

584
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 2: That's right, Genie, talk to me about Cornell West. He's

585
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:34,480
Speaker 2: got four percent in this poll. Rick was very eloquent there,

586
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 2: four percents, enough to tip a race in a state

587
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 2: like Michigan or Georgia. How concerns should Joe Biden be

588
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 2: about this?

589
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 9: Very concerned? It is the same argument, and the real

590
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 9: concern with Cornell West, it is a concern that he

591
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 9: is going to pull not just from Democrats overall, which

592
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:57,480
Speaker 9: he could in type states, but also young people who

593
00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 9: are very attracted to somebody like Cornell. Two people on

594
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 9: the progressive left who are the activists in the party,

595
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 9: the people who get out to vote, and young people.

596
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 9: And anytime you're talking about Democrats, there's two constituencies you

597
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 9: cannot afford to lose, young people and African Americans. So

598
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 9: those are the two you always want to watch in

599
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 9: these polls, and Joe Biden has a huge problem in

600
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 9: both of those areas, particularly young people, and so this

601
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 9: is something they have been trying to combat. But how

602
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 9: they do that is very, very challenging given the negatives

603
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 9: Biden has, which is one he can't surmount, which is

604
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 9: his age.

605
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 2: Unreal. I hope you're listening to Rick and Jeanie. If

606
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 2: all this stuff happens, if everybody jumps in, we get

607
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 2: an old label's candidate, it is going to be a

608
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 2: circus next year.

609
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,480
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the

610
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern.

611
00:33:57,040 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 2: On Bloomberg Radio. Tune in alf Bloomberg dot Com, and The.

612
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon

613
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 1: Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa

614
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 1: play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

615
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:13,880
Speaker 2: We are in the same place now we were on Friday.

616
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 2: There are just more members looking for the gavel nine,

617
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 2: as we told you, and we're joined in studio here

618
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 2: ahead of our conversation with Mick mulvaney by Jack Fitzpatrick Bloomberg.

619
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 2: Government eats and breathes this stuff. You're supposed to be

620
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 2: reporting on the budgeting process, of course appropriations, but we

621
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:33,799
Speaker 2: can't do that because we can't do anything until this

622
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 2: is solved. It's interesting, though, with your experience covering Capitol Hill,

623
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:40,320
Speaker 2: you know all nine of these members. Tom Emmer seems

624
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 2: to be the closest thing to a front runner. If

625
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,720
Speaker 2: you're the majority whip and you can't close this deal,

626
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 2: can anyone.

627
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 11: Well, they've been having trouble counting votes lately, even before

628
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:54,760
Speaker 11: Emmer was running for Speakers, so that's there are plenty

629
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 11: of difficulties.

630
00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 2: Also say the same thing about Steve Scalice, right, But

631
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:00,560
Speaker 2: the point is these are the guys with the phone

632
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 2: numbers and the relationships. Yeah, so if they can't do it,

633
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:03,359
Speaker 2: who can't.

634
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 11: It's an almost impossible task, especially for anybody with that

635
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 11: much of a record. So Scalise was two establishment. Evidently

636
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 11: Jim Jordan had made too many enemies. They are looking

637
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,239
Speaker 11: for a fresh face, but it's very difficult to get

638
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,759
Speaker 11: a fresh face with the relationships to build upon, with

639
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 11: the established ability to count votes. Emmer's also a big

640
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 11: X factor. I don't know if he's a favorite or what,

641
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:33,880
Speaker 11: because you have to decide, well, former President Trump has

642
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,879
Speaker 11: to decide exactly what their relationship is, if he's going

643
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 11: to help him or hurt him. You know, if he

644
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:43,240
Speaker 11: is seen if Emma is seen as the next face

645
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 11: of the establishment, that's not a good thing for him.

646
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 10: So he really could swing either way. But he's a

647
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 10: very big name.

648
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 2: Clearly, what do you make of this effort by his

649
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:52,839
Speaker 2: office to kind of show him as a Trump guy?

650
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 2: Even got a picture framed photo of him in the office.

651
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 2: But he voted to certify the election, and that's a

652
00:35:59,040 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 2: mortal sin, right.

653
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 11: I think we're in the process of defining what is

654
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:07,800
Speaker 11: the mortal sin? What defines your relationship to Trump? Is

655
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 11: it the vote on the twenty twenty certification? Is it

656
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 11: other policy issues? Emmer was not somebody who was impossible

657
00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:19,279
Speaker 11: to work with among Republicans in Congress. But Trump needs

658
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:24,839
Speaker 11: to decide which slights our deal breakers to him. And yeah,

659
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 11: I mean Emmer is not quite as closely tied to

660
00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 11: Trump as somebody like Byron Donald's. But Trump has to

661
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 11: define what kills a relationship, what burns that bridge.

662
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:37,840
Speaker 2: Didn't we learn last week that it doesn't matter or

663
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 2: Jim Jordan would be speaker? All right? Trump endorsed him,

664
00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:44,200
Speaker 2: supposedly worked for him. The lost.

665
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 11: The Trump endorsement is not everything. And as we learned

666
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 11: with Jordan, you could be the closest to Trump, you

667
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,839
Speaker 11: could be Trump's favorite, but that does not necessarily ingratiate

668
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:58,880
Speaker 11: you with members of the Armed Services Committee, the Appropriations Committee,

669
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 11: swing district members. So you you need to have a very,

670
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 11: very wide reach. There's not one single king maker who

671
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:07,800
Speaker 11: picks somebody here.

672
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 2: All right. I have to have whenever you come and

673
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 2: ask you one super wonky question because you're Jack and

674
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:16,000
Speaker 2: you can answer it. I love it. Spending bills supposed

675
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 2: to originate in the House. Looks like the Senate is

676
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:21,480
Speaker 2: actually going to do this. When it comes to this

677
00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:24,719
Speaker 2: one hundred billion dollar plus supplemental budget request that the

678
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:27,320
Speaker 2: President has. We've talked about it a lot on this broadcast.

679
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:30,840
Speaker 2: That includes a bunch of stuff, including Israel and Ukraine.

680
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:36,400
Speaker 2: There's a way, though, for them to use a different

681
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:38,879
Speaker 2: vehicle to get this done Senate over the House while

682
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:39,960
Speaker 2: still playing by the rules.

683
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 11: They have not decided, to my knowledge, on a vehicle.

684
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:46,840
Speaker 11: But the Senate sometimes will take a House past bill

685
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 11: they are supposed to, or at least traditionally, they have

686
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:55,400
Speaker 11: limited themselves to relevant appropriations bills. I'd point out that

687
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 11: the Constitution itself specifically says it's tax bills that are

688
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:01,279
Speaker 11: supposed to originate in the House, and then there was

689
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 11: a long tradition saying, well, that's any money bill. So

690
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 11: really this is a matter of what traditions you set,

691
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 11: what traditions you follow. If the Senate says it's doing this,

692
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 11: what really matters is do they have the support to

693
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:15,400
Speaker 11: move quickly. A lot of the time they rely on

694
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 11: unanimous consent to get things moving quickly in the Senate.

695
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 11: So it's more a matter of the politics of the

696
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:24,239
Speaker 11: Senate than a piece of the Constitution.

697
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:25,560
Speaker 2: For our listeners and viewers to understand. Though they would

698
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 2: take a House Past bill. Essentially do a big highlight,

699
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 2: big copy, delete, put in their own language, pass it,

700
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:35,319
Speaker 2: send it back.

701
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:36,280
Speaker 10: Yeah, tradition.

702
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 11: The tradition is it's an HR something House Bill one two,

703
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 11: one hundred whatever. That is a matter of the Constitution

704
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:50,799
Speaker 11: and also tradition. And you know, is there a point

705
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 11: of order raised by somebody in the Senate that they

706
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:56,319
Speaker 11: have to work through, But yes, they It is not

707
00:38:56,600 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 11: that unusual for the Senate. It's unusual, but it's not

708
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:01,640
Speaker 11: un of for the Senate to say, you know what,

709
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:03,280
Speaker 11: we're actually going to act quickly.

710
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 10: Now, we're going to take the lead. That really is

711
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 10: more a matter of right now.

712
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 11: There are a lot of Senators who say the House

713
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 11: isn't able to do anything. They want to take control.

714
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:15,399
Speaker 11: There are a number of Republican senators who do want

715
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:18,920
Speaker 11: Ukraine funding to be attached in this next big spending bill.

716
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 10: It's the politics that drive it.

717
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 11: And if they decide, you know what, we can find

718
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:25,839
Speaker 11: something and copy and paste our bill into that House

719
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:28,840
Speaker 11: pass bill, that is in line with tradition.

720
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 2: Basically, great stuff. I love it. Good to see Jack Fitzpatrick.

721
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 2: As always, we'd probably get fired if we had this

722
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 2: conversation anywhere other than Bloomberg, which I love. We put

723
00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:40,719
Speaker 2: our wonky hats on whenever Jack comes to join us

724
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:43,879
Speaker 2: here in the studio. Mick mulvaney must have a wonk

725
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:47,439
Speaker 2: hat hidden somewhere. Obviously, based on his resume, he knows

726
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:49,359
Speaker 2: all about it. It's good to see you, sir, back

727
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:52,319
Speaker 2: with us here on Bloomberg. He helped to found the

728
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 2: Freedom Caucus. He also helped to run the Trump White

729
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 2: House as acting chief of staff, and he carried a

730
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 2: lot of other business cards while he was at it.

731
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 2: But Mick knows the players were talking about here nine

732
00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:04,600
Speaker 2: more up to bat tonight here, Mick, I'm not even

733
00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:06,719
Speaker 2: sure where to start with you, my goodness. You must

734
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 2: you must look forward to these conversations on Mondays. What

735
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:12,719
Speaker 2: are they going to ask me to predict? Now? The

736
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:15,880
Speaker 2: fact is it seems to be getting more complicated, isn't it.

737
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 5: I do look forward to these conversations because you never

738
00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 5: know what you're going to get. Is it more complicated? Yeah,

739
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:26,280
Speaker 5: because your introduction is not entirely right. I don't know, Okay, guys,

740
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 5: and that's why itself should tell you something. Okay, there's

741
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:32,719
Speaker 5: a couple of folks who you know. I know of them,

742
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 5: but I didn't spend any time with them because a

743
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 5: lot of them didn't get there to twenty seventeen, twenty nineteen,

744
00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:40,480
Speaker 5: or I think, in the case of Byron Donald's might

745
00:40:40,480 --> 00:40:43,399
Speaker 5: have been sworn in in twenty twenty one. So these

746
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:46,440
Speaker 5: are brand new people vying to be Speaker of the House.

747
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 5: Doesn't mean you can't do a good job. I think

748
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 5: it makes it harder. But what it does mean is

749
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:55,400
Speaker 5: that you're really an unknown quantity. Look that the simple

750
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 5: fact there's nine people running means that there is no

751
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 5: perceived front runner. I like Tom Emmer. I think Tom

752
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 5: be a great speaker. He's certainly a member of leadership.

753
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 5: But of his entry into the race cleared the field,

754
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 5: it didn't, which means that not everybody sees him as

755
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 5: the front runner.

756
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:18,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess we're going to do a candidate's forum

757
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 2: here with all nine. They get a couple of minutes

758
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:23,440
Speaker 2: to speak to the room. Mick. This is not a

759
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:26,319
Speaker 2: very friendly crowd though, right we heard stories last week

760
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:30,320
Speaker 2: of people yelling, the F words being thrown around, people

761
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 2: getting pretty feisty at eleven hundred long Worth. What's going

762
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 2: to happen when the doors close.

763
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:37,759
Speaker 5: Yeah, No, that's the Matt Gates thing. I don't think

764
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:40,520
Speaker 5: it's I don't think it's it's not broad yet. Is

765
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 5: it's broader than it should be? Don't get me wrong.

766
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:44,319
Speaker 5: But a lot of the story you heard, and some

767
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 5: of them came from McCarthy about how, you know a

768
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:48,279
Speaker 5: lot of folks want to shout at Matt Gates. I

769
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:51,960
Speaker 5: think that's probably fair. It's not just Matt, but that's

770
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 5: sort of emblematic of that particular subgroup of the caucus.

771
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:58,959
Speaker 5: My question is this, and we talked about Matt Gates

772
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:00,879
Speaker 5: really talking about the seven or eight people that voted

773
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:05,799
Speaker 5: against McCarthy. Can anybody that they support get elected? That's

774
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:08,759
Speaker 5: my question because you know, if I'm Don Bacon, and

775
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:10,920
Speaker 5: I know Donna Donald's a really good guy, and if

776
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:13,439
Speaker 5: I'm Don Bacon and my objection is that I don't

777
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 5: want to reward Matt Yates for taking out Kevin McCarthy,

778
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:18,760
Speaker 5: Am I going to vote for anybody that Matt Yates

779
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:22,480
Speaker 5: is okay with? This was what herd Jim Jordan. And conversely,

780
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:25,000
Speaker 5: does anybody that Matt Yates and his group doesn't like

781
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 5: have the ability to get the votes because they seem

782
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:29,480
Speaker 5: to want to vote as a block. So it's a

783
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:33,279
Speaker 5: really bizarre kind of dynamic where I'm not sure they

784
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:35,920
Speaker 5: got two seventeen for anybody right now. In fact, I

785
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:37,400
Speaker 5: don't know if I told you this or not. I

786
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 5: lose track away. I told the stories. So I talked

787
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 5: to Mark Ammaday, one of the funniest members of Congress.

788
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 5: He's from Nevada, and I talked to him last week.

789
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:45,360
Speaker 5: He said, make we don't have two hundred and seventeen

790
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:49,359
Speaker 5: votes for Jesus, Mary and Joseph put together. So it's

791
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:54,200
Speaker 5: going to be an interesting Yeah, good luck this afternoon. Boys,

792
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:54,920
Speaker 5: have a great time.

793
00:42:55,320 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's Libby Cantrell writes effective in her latest note

794
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 2: to clients that I've been referring to a bit today,

795
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:06,760
Speaker 2: Mick is. The longer the house is without a speaker,

796
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:10,799
Speaker 2: the more the House becomes the price taker, not the

797
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:16,320
Speaker 2: price setter, talking about whatever the Senate might be about

798
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:19,360
Speaker 2: to send over in terms of a supplemental budget request

799
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:21,880
Speaker 2: that we know is going to top one hundred billion dollars.

800
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 2: Do you agree with this general conventional wisdom. The longer

801
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 2: this goes, the more likely it is that's going to pass.

802
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, and more like and I think, by the way,

803
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 5: I hadn't thought of it in that terms. But that's

804
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 5: that is the exact right way to look at If

805
00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:36,880
Speaker 5: your markets, what do you think you're wondering, what's going

806
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:40,200
Speaker 5: to pass? Exactly what the President asks? That's it. Whatever

807
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:42,560
Speaker 5: one and two hundred and ten, pick a number at

808
00:43:42,560 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 5: one point four trillion. It doesn't make any difference. Right now,

809
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:48,799
Speaker 5: it's going to pass because the Senate will pass it

810
00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:51,240
Speaker 5: as is. There'll be enough Republican votes to go along

811
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:53,440
Speaker 5: with this. Keep in mind the I think the lion's

812
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:55,960
Speaker 5: shareff not the majority of the money is actually Ukraine money,

813
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:59,840
Speaker 5: not is not Israel money. But it's going to pass

814
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:04,480
Speaker 5: sixty billion. And then the House is too chaotic. And

815
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 5: it's not that it's just chaotic, Joe, it's that when

816
00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:11,160
Speaker 5: you're spending all your time talking about the speakership, it's

817
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:16,280
Speaker 5: harder then switch gears and have substantive disagreements on policy

818
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 5: with a bill. You lose the moral high ground when

819
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:22,879
Speaker 5: you can't get your act together. So there's gonna be

820
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 5: probably you know, enough Democrats Republicans who will vote with

821
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:29,080
Speaker 5: every Democrat that if it comes to the floor on

822
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 5: the House, it'll pass. Now, that's going to be part

823
00:44:32,040 --> 00:44:35,440
Speaker 5: of the discussion right tonight is the conservatives, biscal conservatives

824
00:44:35,719 --> 00:44:37,360
Speaker 5: are going to want to know from each of the

825
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:40,560
Speaker 5: nine contenders, how do you propose to deal with a

826
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:43,560
Speaker 5: supplemental spending bill and how do you propose to deal

827
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:45,480
Speaker 5: with the government funding bill. It's gonna be a big

828
00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:46,760
Speaker 5: part of the conversation this evening.

829
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:51,000
Speaker 2: So the only answer for that room is break them up. Right,

830
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 2: You're gonna say, if I'm speaker, I will not I

831
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:57,480
Speaker 2: will vote individually on Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan on the border.

832
00:44:57,520 --> 00:44:58,840
Speaker 2: Is that not the winning answer?

833
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:02,320
Speaker 5: It's the winning answer. But then what happens when nothing passes?

834
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:06,480
Speaker 5: And listen, you could afford technically not to pass anything

835
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:09,239
Speaker 5: for Ukraine and Israel. It's a huge political price to pay.

836
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 5: Don't get me wrong, and I'm not suggesting it, but

837
00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 5: the world doesn't really end in Washington, d C. If

838
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 5: you don't fund Ukraine and Israel, at least for a

839
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:20,320
Speaker 5: short period of time. If you don't fund the government,

840
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:22,640
Speaker 5: the government shuts down. And you and I have talked

841
00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:24,719
Speaker 5: about how that's not nearly as big a deal in

842
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:27,360
Speaker 5: the real world as people think it is, but Washington's

843
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:29,239
Speaker 5: not the real world. They think it's the end of

844
00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:32,480
Speaker 5: the world up there if the government shuts down. So yeah,

845
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:34,359
Speaker 5: you might be able to play checkers and say, look,

846
00:45:34,360 --> 00:45:36,399
Speaker 5: we're going to make sure that every approached bill comes

847
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:38,560
Speaker 5: to the floor individually. We're going to make sure we

848
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:41,520
Speaker 5: separate the vote, separate out the voting for Ukraine and

849
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:43,399
Speaker 5: for Israel. But at the end of the day, it's

850
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 5: coming back married up from the Senate. What are you

851
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:47,720
Speaker 5: going to do then? But you're not going to do anything.

852
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 5: You're going to shut the government down. Are you going

853
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:50,359
Speaker 5: to take what the Senate sends you.

854
00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:54,400
Speaker 2: If the government's set the shut down. We've been talking

855
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:58,360
Speaker 2: about this, and you've heard the conversation. Will Patrick McHenry

856
00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:01,440
Speaker 2: be the one to come the rescue? Terry Haynes at

857
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 2: Pangaea says they wrote the rules in the wake of

858
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:06,279
Speaker 2: nine to eleven. He could bring a bill to the

859
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 2: floor right now if he wanted to, and this whole

860
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:13,320
Speaker 2: conversation about powers of pro ten will be quickly forgotten

861
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:16,920
Speaker 2: if we have to act immediately. Do you agree with that?

862
00:46:17,760 --> 00:46:20,480
Speaker 5: I have certainly heard that. Okay, let me just give

863
00:46:20,480 --> 00:46:22,440
Speaker 5: you the other side, and I don't have a strong

864
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:24,080
Speaker 5: feeling in one way or the other. I don't think

865
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:27,320
Speaker 5: anybody's got a strong feeling because we're in such unsharded waters.

866
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:29,600
Speaker 5: But the other side of the argument is this, and

867
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:33,040
Speaker 5: the better example is the funding bill as opposed to say,

868
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 5: the Ukraine and the Ukraine AD bill. So let's say

869
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:39,600
Speaker 5: the funding Bill goes through under this temporary authority of

870
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:43,279
Speaker 5: Patrick and Henry, and let's say that included is a

871
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:47,520
Speaker 5: CR But included is there's a policy that treats Bloomberg

872
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 5: Corporation very poorly, cost you guys hundreds of thousands of dollars,

873
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 5: millions of dollars, thousands of jobs. There's a policy change.

874
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:56,400
Speaker 5: I don't know what it might be, but you can

875
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 5: imagine the situation. Are you going to sit back and

876
00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 5: take it or are you going to sue? Are you

877
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 5: going to file a lawsuit saying that Congress was not

878
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 5: properly constituted and that this law is null and void

879
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:10,319
Speaker 5: that negatively impacts me. Regardless of whether or not that's

880
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:12,480
Speaker 5: a meritorious claim. In the long run, it's going to

881
00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 5: add added uncertainty to what comes out of that building.

882
00:47:15,880 --> 00:47:18,280
Speaker 5: And that is not good right now. So I think

883
00:47:18,640 --> 00:47:21,760
Speaker 5: everybody prefers that not go the pro tem way because

884
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 5: it is so murky, and while your other commentator may

885
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:27,120
Speaker 5: be absolutely right, it may take us six months or

886
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:29,040
Speaker 5: a year to courts to figure out if that were

887
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 5: the case or not.

888
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:34,080
Speaker 2: Isn't that something just what we need now? A court challenge?

889
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 2: Spending time with Mick mulvaney, I have to ask you, Mick,

890
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:41,680
Speaker 2: before you go about the Trump effect. There's concern that

891
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 2: he's going to, I guess, somehow work against Tom Emmer

892
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:48,840
Speaker 2: because Emmer voted to certify the election. Do you believe

893
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:51,640
Speaker 2: that would it even matter? Wouldn't Jim Jordan be speaker

894
00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:52,120
Speaker 2: if it did?

895
00:47:52,920 --> 00:47:55,319
Speaker 5: Well? You know Trump, it's always easier to create than

896
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:57,240
Speaker 5: it is excuse me to destroy that it is create.

897
00:47:57,440 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 5: And Trump is much better at making sure telling you

898
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 5: who's not going to be elected than he is telling

899
00:48:02,239 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 5: you who's going to be elected. He can prevent somebody

900
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:08,520
Speaker 5: from winning in an election, but he's shown a spotty

901
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:11,319
Speaker 5: record on getting people across the finish line. Go look

902
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 5: at a Georgia Senate races for evidence of that. So

903
00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:16,759
Speaker 5: I think he wasn't able to get the votes for

904
00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:20,399
Speaker 5: Jim Jordan. That shows Trump's limitations inside the building. Keep

905
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:22,640
Speaker 5: in mind this is a very personal vote. This is

906
00:48:22,680 --> 00:48:24,600
Speaker 5: not a policy vote. This is who you want to

907
00:48:24,640 --> 00:48:27,000
Speaker 5: be your leader. And people are a lot more willing

908
00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 5: to push back on Donald Trump on this, and they

909
00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:33,640
Speaker 5: might be on immigration or taxes. So I don't think

910
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:37,080
Speaker 5: Trump has the ability to get anybody across the finish line,

911
00:48:37,080 --> 00:48:40,040
Speaker 5: but he might have the Jews to prevent it from

912
00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:42,320
Speaker 5: from going to mister Emmer. Now that being said, you

913
00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 5: asked a question to be previous guests, how long are

914
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:46,840
Speaker 5: you on the outs with Trump? You're only on the

915
00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:49,239
Speaker 5: outs with Trump as so long as you want to be.

916
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:50,480
Speaker 5: You can always get back.

917
00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 2: On the island. Nick mulvaney knows firsthand. By the way,

918
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:54,960
Speaker 2: this is Bloomberg.

919
00:48:56,239 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast Catch us

920
00:48:59,760 --> 00:49:02,840
Speaker 1: Law I have weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,

921
00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:05,959
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen

922
00:49:06,000 --> 00:49:08,200
Speaker 1: non demand wherever you get your podcasts.

923
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 2: It was the first televised interview of the Five Eyes.

924
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:18,160
Speaker 2: Did you see this on sixty minutes last evening? They're

925
00:49:18,200 --> 00:49:21,239
Speaker 2: all sitting around the same table with Scott Pelley. The

926
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:25,839
Speaker 2: Five eyes. This is the Intelligence Alliance. Intelligence leaders from

927
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:30,960
Speaker 2: the US, Canada, the UK, Australia and New Zealand, and

928
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:35,839
Speaker 2: they got together to issue a warning on China. First

929
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 2: person I thought of was Craig Singleton at the Foundation

930
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:42,399
Speaker 2: for Defensive Democracies, who talked to us just a couple

931
00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:45,360
Speaker 2: of weeks ago about his op ed in the Washington

932
00:49:45,400 --> 00:49:49,319
Speaker 2: Post about the activities that China has been up to

933
00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 2: here opening civilian installations, ports, different operations in different countries

934
00:49:56,320 --> 00:49:59,440
Speaker 2: that are being morphed into military installations and in some

935
00:49:59,480 --> 00:50:03,360
Speaker 2: cases used for spying from the get go. Scott Pelly

936
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:06,920
Speaker 2: asked all five if they see this happening in their countries.

937
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:10,560
Speaker 2: Christopher Ray, the head of the FBI, gave him an answer.

938
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:11,480
Speaker 2: About the US.

939
00:50:12,040 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 5: We've seen a variety of efforts by.

940
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:19,440
Speaker 12: Chinese businesses, some cases state or in enterprises, some cases

941
00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:26,319
Speaker 12: ostensibly private companies attempting to acquire businesses, land, infrastructure. What

942
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:28,520
Speaker 12: have you in the United States in a way that

943
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:30,560
Speaker 12: presents national security concerns.

944
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:34,800
Speaker 2: Craig Singleton is with us now, senior fellow at the Foundation.

945
00:50:34,880 --> 00:50:36,640
Speaker 2: It's good to see you, Craig, Thanks for coming back in.

946
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:38,400
Speaker 2: I want to ask you about new research that you

947
00:50:38,440 --> 00:50:41,600
Speaker 2: have on evs that very much play into what we're

948
00:50:41,640 --> 00:50:44,239
Speaker 2: talking about here. But I wonder, with regard to your

949
00:50:44,239 --> 00:50:47,360
Speaker 2: recent op ed what you've already submitted and talked to

950
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:49,399
Speaker 2: us about here, what it means to have the Five

951
00:50:49,440 --> 00:50:53,080
Speaker 2: Eyes acknowledge that together in an interview like that for

952
00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:56,360
Speaker 2: mainstream Americans to watch while they're sitting at home on

953
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 2: a Sunday night.

954
00:50:58,480 --> 00:51:00,759
Speaker 3: Thanks Joe. I mean, I think the takeaway from me

955
00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:05,160
Speaker 3: was that the issue is so serious and so ubiquitous

956
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:10,200
Speaker 3: that these intelligence officials who spend their whole careers largely

957
00:51:10,200 --> 00:51:12,920
Speaker 3: in the shadows, felt the need to talk and communicate

958
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:15,600
Speaker 3: directly with the American people and with people around the

959
00:51:15,640 --> 00:51:18,640
Speaker 3: world about the scope of this threat and how China

960
00:51:18,760 --> 00:51:23,360
Speaker 3: is using all levers of its national power to undermine

961
00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:26,320
Speaker 3: Western influence, not just the United States, but it's partners

962
00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:29,080
Speaker 3: around the world, and it's doing so by exploiting these

963
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:33,680
Speaker 3: legal and regulatory cleavages that exist largely from the Cold

964
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:36,600
Speaker 3: War that just haven't kept up with the new ways

965
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:41,000
Speaker 3: that our adversaries like China and Russia even Iran are

966
00:51:41,040 --> 00:51:44,839
Speaker 3: going about trying to steal our secrets or intellectual property.

967
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:47,680
Speaker 2: Well, and what you're learning now through this new research

968
00:51:48,360 --> 00:51:52,480
Speaker 2: by the Foundation would suggest that evs are part of

969
00:51:52,520 --> 00:51:56,400
Speaker 2: that Beijing's power play. Is the headline on your report

970
00:51:56,520 --> 00:52:02,520
Speaker 2: Safeguarding US National Security in the Electric vehicle and battery industries. Craig,

971
00:52:02,560 --> 00:52:04,680
Speaker 2: talk to us about this. The US is trying to

972
00:52:04,719 --> 00:52:09,439
Speaker 2: catch up with China, but our lack of progress here,

973
00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:13,320
Speaker 2: I guess, with relation to Beijing, is becoming a national

974
00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:18,319
Speaker 2: security issue. Considering the goals that the Biden deministration has

975
00:52:18,360 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 2: put out for EV adoption, how does this play against

976
00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:22,279
Speaker 2: the US in your view?

977
00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:26,799
Speaker 3: Absolutely? I mean, just as Huawei soop control in the

978
00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:32,000
Speaker 3: telecommunications sector, a Chinese company called Cattle or CAATL is

979
00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:36,440
Speaker 3: strategically positioning itself to dominate our electric future. And it's

980
00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:38,680
Speaker 3: a playbook we have seen before. And in the case

981
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:41,640
Speaker 3: of Cattle, this is a company with deep ties to

982
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:45,560
Speaker 3: the Chinese Communist Party. The alarm bells are really already

983
00:52:45,640 --> 00:52:50,320
Speaker 3: ringing today. Cattle and another Chinese battery behemoth called BYD,

984
00:52:51,400 --> 00:52:55,160
Speaker 3: they dominate the global EV market. Cattle, which is linked

985
00:52:55,160 --> 00:52:59,400
Speaker 3: to forced labor, produces one in three global EV batteries.

986
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:02,360
Speaker 3: BYD is set to overtake Tesla here soon as the

987
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:05,520
Speaker 3: largest producer of EV's in the world. And if that

988
00:53:05,600 --> 00:53:08,759
Speaker 3: wasn't bad enough, these Chinese companies are expanding into our

989
00:53:08,800 --> 00:53:14,440
Speaker 3: critical infrastructure, building out EV charging networks and also this

990
00:53:14,520 --> 00:53:18,600
Speaker 3: new cutting edge technology called energy storage solutions. These are

991
00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:22,920
Speaker 3: massive Chinese batteries that are connected to our electrical grid,

992
00:53:23,239 --> 00:53:26,600
Speaker 3: even though they are not subject to any stringent federal

993
00:53:26,640 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 3: reviewer scrutiny, and nor are the US firms that are

994
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:33,400
Speaker 3: collaborating with them required to disclose those partnerships. And we

995
00:53:33,440 --> 00:53:37,879
Speaker 3: already have seen these projects connected into our mainline infrastructure

996
00:53:38,000 --> 00:53:43,200
Speaker 3: in Florida and Virginia, Texas and Nevada, and even at

997
00:53:43,440 --> 00:53:46,279
Speaker 3: the Marine Corps base at Camp La June, which is

998
00:53:46,320 --> 00:53:50,319
Speaker 3: home to a special unit, special military Operations unit that

999
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:54,680
Speaker 3: is designed to evacuate noncombatants from Taiwan in the case

1000
00:53:54,800 --> 00:53:58,719
Speaker 3: of a potential Beijing invasion of Taiwan. And so it's

1001
00:53:58,800 --> 00:54:01,960
Speaker 3: just really madness. We've seen this movie before and we're

1002
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:03,239
Speaker 3: sort of letting it play out again.

1003
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:06,200
Speaker 2: Well, this is incredible. So you're you're talking about a

1004
00:54:06,239 --> 00:54:10,760
Speaker 2: lot more than an economic advantage here, Craig. This could

1005
00:54:10,800 --> 00:54:15,040
Speaker 2: in fact be a cyber threat and a threat on

1006
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 2: a national defense level that most people don't think about

1007
00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:22,360
Speaker 2: when we're talking evs totally.

1008
00:54:22,400 --> 00:54:25,520
Speaker 3: I mean, behind the allure of evs and green energy

1009
00:54:25,640 --> 00:54:27,680
Speaker 3: lies this potential trojan horse.

1010
00:54:27,760 --> 00:54:27,920
Speaker 10: Right.

1011
00:54:28,120 --> 00:54:33,000
Speaker 3: It's unvetted Chinese technology, it's highly vulnerable to cyber attacks,

1012
00:54:33,440 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 3: and it could even result in potential sabotage against our

1013
00:54:36,040 --> 00:54:39,680
Speaker 3: electrical grid. And just like with Huawei, all of these

1014
00:54:39,920 --> 00:54:45,080
Speaker 3: risks are just immediate and undeniable. So numerous studies show

1015
00:54:45,120 --> 00:54:49,920
Speaker 3: that Internet connected EV batteries and chargers have the same

1016
00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:53,840
Speaker 3: sort of cybersecurity weaknesses that we see with large scale

1017
00:54:53,960 --> 00:54:59,120
Speaker 3: data breaches. You can even malicious employ malware onto your

1018
00:54:59,160 --> 00:55:02,920
Speaker 3: EV during charging and then monitor that EV user and

1019
00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:06,360
Speaker 3: even turn off their vehicle for months or even years

1020
00:55:06,360 --> 00:55:09,759
Speaker 3: after that initial infection, And those Chinese battery systems I

1021
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:14,800
Speaker 3: mentioned are hardly safer. The potential malware could bring down

1022
00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:19,560
Speaker 3: entire electrical grids, studies show. And the reality is that

1023
00:55:20,120 --> 00:55:23,839
Speaker 3: we are already started deploying these systems across critical infrastructure

1024
00:55:24,320 --> 00:55:28,719
Speaker 3: without properly vetting them and without really thinking through some

1025
00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:30,680
Speaker 3: of the negative sort of ramifications here.

1026
00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:33,960
Speaker 2: It's pretty remarkable how much we how much time we

1027
00:55:34,040 --> 00:55:38,359
Speaker 2: spend on TikTok For instance, Craig, but not this. I'll

1028
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:40,400
Speaker 2: point you to something that Donald Trump said. I never

1029
00:55:40,400 --> 00:55:42,560
Speaker 2: thought i'd be pointing Chraig Singleton to Donald Trump, but

1030
00:55:42,560 --> 00:55:45,720
Speaker 2: he made a post, a video post on truth social

1031
00:55:45,800 --> 00:55:50,000
Speaker 2: talking about the UAW contract negotiations, the auto workers strike,

1032
00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:53,120
Speaker 2: and he had a message for the workers in his

1033
00:55:53,239 --> 00:55:57,120
Speaker 2: own special way of speaking that gets a bit to

1034
00:55:57,160 --> 00:55:59,279
Speaker 2: what we're talking about here, remembering that one of the

1035
00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:02,640
Speaker 2: real sticking points in the UAW negotiations actually comes down

1036
00:56:03,800 --> 00:56:07,200
Speaker 2: to evs, the government's policy and the way these car

1037
00:56:07,200 --> 00:56:09,719
Speaker 2: companies are handling them. Here he is, you.

1038
00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:12,879
Speaker 13: Should not pay your dues because they're selling you to hell.

1039
00:56:13,040 --> 00:56:14,799
Speaker 5: You're going to be going to hell. You're not gonna

1040
00:56:14,840 --> 00:56:15,560
Speaker 5: have any jobs.

1041
00:56:15,800 --> 00:56:17,840
Speaker 13: All those cars are going to be made in China,

1042
00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:19,399
Speaker 13: every one of them.

1043
00:56:20,320 --> 00:56:21,040
Speaker 5: You can forget it.

1044
00:56:21,160 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 13: Michigan, you can forget it. South Carolina, you can forget it.

1045
00:56:25,440 --> 00:56:26,120
Speaker 5: Everybody.

1046
00:56:26,400 --> 00:56:30,240
Speaker 13: All of those cars are going to be made in China.

1047
00:56:32,040 --> 00:56:35,279
Speaker 2: Is there an element of truth to that, Craig, that

1048
00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:40,359
Speaker 2: our lack of progress in catching up with China will

1049
00:56:40,360 --> 00:56:43,960
Speaker 2: mean that many of these are in fact made in China,

1050
00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:45,280
Speaker 2: the cars and the batteries.

1051
00:56:46,480 --> 00:56:50,240
Speaker 3: I think the lessons from Huawei's deployment are really applicable here.

1052
00:56:50,960 --> 00:56:55,799
Speaker 3: Back then, mostly GOP led states deployed Huahwei gear as

1053
00:56:55,800 --> 00:56:59,600
Speaker 3: a means to address world connectivity on the cheap Huawei's

1054
00:56:59,600 --> 00:57:02,960
Speaker 3: products for the cheapest they were ready to deploy, and

1055
00:57:03,000 --> 00:57:06,480
Speaker 3: so as opposed to going with Ericson or Nokia or

1056
00:57:06,560 --> 00:57:10,359
Speaker 3: Siemens or a US provider, we went with China. There

1057
00:57:10,400 --> 00:57:14,880
Speaker 3: are many sort of analogous examples with the EV battle,

1058
00:57:14,880 --> 00:57:17,960
Speaker 3: where the Chinese many years ago, going back to twenty fifteen,

1059
00:57:18,080 --> 00:57:21,640
Speaker 3: said in their strategic planning documents that if we control

1060
00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:24,720
Speaker 3: the EV and battery markets, we'll have leverage over the

1061
00:57:24,880 --> 00:57:28,760
Speaker 3: United States and it will help us become an economic superpower.

1062
00:57:29,080 --> 00:57:31,520
Speaker 3: And I think now we're starting to see that play

1063
00:57:31,560 --> 00:57:34,160
Speaker 3: out where once again the West was behind and the

1064
00:57:34,280 --> 00:57:38,200
Speaker 3: Chinese central planners in this case, we're sort of ahead

1065
00:57:38,200 --> 00:57:39,200
Speaker 3: of themselves. Here.

1066
00:57:39,560 --> 00:57:40,240
Speaker 5: The question is.

1067
00:57:40,240 --> 00:57:43,840
Speaker 3: Whether we want to rush into this green revolution and

1068
00:57:43,920 --> 00:57:48,439
Speaker 3: sort of embrace these untested Chinese technologies, or whether it's

1069
00:57:48,440 --> 00:57:51,120
Speaker 3: time to strategically hit pause and say, if we're going

1070
00:57:51,160 --> 00:57:53,760
Speaker 3: to deploy these things, can we do it safely? If not,

1071
00:57:54,360 --> 00:57:57,480
Speaker 3: what are some potential alternatives, whether they're Korean, whether they're

1072
00:57:57,480 --> 00:58:01,080
Speaker 3: American made, whether they're Japanese, that we can have confidence

1073
00:58:01,120 --> 00:58:03,880
Speaker 3: in that we're not sort of sacrificing our future national

1074
00:58:03,960 --> 00:58:06,480
Speaker 3: security for these term energy goals.

1075
00:58:07,560 --> 00:58:10,000
Speaker 2: Well, this is important. I've got less than a minute left, Craig.

1076
00:58:10,480 --> 00:58:14,000
Speaker 2: Time goes by when you're learning stuff. Is the administration

1077
00:58:14,200 --> 00:58:15,760
Speaker 2: open to this conversation?

1078
00:58:17,240 --> 00:58:19,160
Speaker 3: I think a little bit. You know, they've been very

1079
00:58:19,200 --> 00:58:23,600
Speaker 3: slow to acknowledge the massive cybersecurity vulnerabilities that are associated

1080
00:58:23,640 --> 00:58:27,000
Speaker 3: with this EV build out, But the Department of Energy

1081
00:58:27,200 --> 00:58:30,880
Speaker 3: and particularly the National Labs have put out some really interesting,

1082
00:58:31,040 --> 00:58:34,440
Speaker 3: sort of scary research that shows just how easy this is.

1083
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Speaker 3: The question that we haven't sort of grappled with here

1084
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Speaker 3: is do you have to hit pause on some of

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Speaker 3: these current systems and deployments to assess their safety and

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00:58:43,440 --> 00:58:47,960
Speaker 3: security before you proceed? And here I think the administration

1087
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:51,080
Speaker 3: has been slowly sort of dragging its feet while staying

1088
00:58:51,160 --> 00:58:54,040
Speaker 3: very wetted to its broader EV goals. The question is

1089
00:58:54,320 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 3: do we have an actual intelligent intelligence and technical assessment

1090
00:58:57,560 --> 00:59:01,840
Speaker 3: of this infrastructure, the cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and whether China can

1091
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Speaker 3: exploit them. The answer is no. This is an area

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00:59:04,640 --> 00:59:07,720
Speaker 3: where policymakers can really start to, I think, like make

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Speaker 3: some serious moves and real fast.

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Speaker 2: He's worked in national security all over the world, and

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Speaker 2: he's ours today, Craig Singleton. It's great to see you. Craig.

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Speaker 2: Many thanks, senior fellow Foundation for Defense of Democracies and

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Speaker 2: an important conversation that we need to have here even

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Speaker 2: with all the madness and the chaos in Washington. Thanks

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00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:30,480
Speaker 2: for listening to The Sound On podcast. Make sure to

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00:59:30,520 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 2: subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere

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00:59:33,720 --> 00:59:36,120
Speaker 2: else you get your podcasts, and you can find us

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00:59:36,120 --> 00:59:39,480
Speaker 2: live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern

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00:59:39,520 --> 00:59:43,200
Speaker 2: Time at Bloomberg dot com.