Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanobek. We're here every day bringing
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Speaker 1: the virus and vaccine news we have. US vaccine supply
Speaker 1: should increase enough by April to allow anyone who wants
Speaker 1: a shot to begin getting one. This is according to
Speaker 1: Dr Anthony Faucci. UH. This even as vaccines are distributed
Speaker 1: to the oldest Americans, their share of COVID nineteen deaths
Speaker 1: in the US has not obeyed. A demand as is high.
Speaker 1: Also as the US begins rolling out vaccines at pharmacy,
Speaker 1: so we're seeing the rollout happen uh as for global
Speaker 1: cases A hundred and seven point five million deaths passing
Speaker 1: two point a million, and more than a hundred fifty
Speaker 1: two million COVID shots have been given worldwide. Great to
Speaker 1: have back with us, Dr Eric Toner. He's a senior
Speaker 1: scholar with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and
Speaker 1: a senior scientist in the Department of Environmental Health and
Speaker 1: Engineering at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,
Speaker 1: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Heart Health, supported by
Speaker 1: Michael R. Bloomberg, Founder, Bloomberg LP, and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Dr
Speaker 1: Turner with us once again on the phone from Baltimore.
Speaker 1: Dr Toner, nice to have you here with Tim and myself. UM,
Speaker 1: so talk to me. I feel pretty upbeat by hearing,
Speaker 1: uh what Dr Fauci says in terms of folks getting
Speaker 1: access to the vaccine here in the US. Do you
Speaker 1: think that's a realistic goal? Do you think it is
Speaker 1: probably a fairly realistic goal. I mean, we're doing really
Speaker 1: quite well, despite the frustrations that so many people are
Speaker 1: feeling with reguards to their personal access to the vaccine.
Speaker 1: We are doing quite well nationally in terms of the
Speaker 1: number of people being vaccinated. So I do think that
Speaker 1: there's a pretty reasonable chance that most people have access
Speaker 1: to the vaccine sometime in the spring. I don't know
Speaker 1: for sure if it could be April, but sometime in
Speaker 1: the spring I think is reasonable. So what sometimes in
Speaker 1: the spring? What does that mean for reaching I don't
Speaker 1: like to use the term herd immunity, but seventy of
Speaker 1: the population vaccinated if people have access to it, it's
Speaker 1: not necessarily the same thing as them actually getting the
Speaker 1: vaccine and us being on the other side of this pandemic. Sure, well,
Speaker 1: the real question is how much how much more vaccine
Speaker 1: can be delivered um and administered. We are finding that
Speaker 1: we can administer more vaccine than it is being produced
Speaker 1: right now, with producing about ten million doses per week,
Speaker 1: which is enough to vaccinate about a million and a
Speaker 1: half people per day. But we need to get to
Speaker 1: about three million people per day if we wanted to
Speaker 1: hit the target of getting sent me five per cent
Speaker 1: of the population vaccinated by some time over the summer.
Speaker 1: I think it's I think it's realistic. Um, we are
Speaker 1: getting we should be getting more vaccine from both Maderna
Speaker 1: and Visor this month. The Johnson Johnson vaccine looks like
Speaker 1: it'll get um emergencies authorization this month UM, and so
Speaker 1: we'll have more vaccine. And I think that it's reasonable
Speaker 1: it will get to three million doses a day and
Speaker 1: that should get us to where we want to be
Speaker 1: this summer. It's great. Does that happen with Visor and
Speaker 1: bion Tech and uh Maderna or does that take a
Speaker 1: different type of vaccine the introduction of one of the
Speaker 1: newer vaccines that haven't yet been approved. Yeah, it is.
Speaker 1: It assumes that assumes that the Johnson Johnson vaccine comes
Speaker 1: online as intestated, which it looks like it will. Yeah, exactly. Hey.
Speaker 1: The one conversation Dr Turner that I have a lot
Speaker 1: at home is understanding you know variants and how that
Speaker 1: plays into it. It's certainly something that is now in
Speaker 1: the headlines a lot understandably. So if this schedule that
Speaker 1: Dr Fauci and you you agree with in terms of
Speaker 1: rolling out the vaccine, is it fast enough enough to
Speaker 1: stay ahead of the variants so that we can ultimately
Speaker 1: get ahead of COVID. The bottom line is, we don't
Speaker 1: know for sure, are you know, a horse race between
Speaker 1: the vaccine and the variance? If if we are, we
Speaker 1: don't yet know how rapidly the variance will become the
Speaker 1: predominant strain. It does look like that will happen, that
Speaker 1: the UK variant looks like a dominant straint probably sometime
Speaker 1: this spring. If we get enough people vaccinated by that time,
Speaker 1: it shouldn't be an overwhelming problem. If if not, then
Speaker 1: we could see another series and surge. And so how
Speaker 1: quickly then can we pivot to take the existing vaccines
Speaker 1: and adapt them. Is that a pretty quick and easy process,
Speaker 1: says the layperson and journalist. Yes, uh, it depends on
Speaker 1: your point of view. Your point of view is a
Speaker 1: manufacturer of the vaccine is no problem at all. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, for the rest of us. It does take
Speaker 1: a while, and there has to be some testing after
Speaker 1: after the vaccines and tweets. It's been tweaked. But it's
Speaker 1: important to realize the existing vaccines work against the variance.
Speaker 1: They just don't work quite as well as they do
Speaker 1: against the classic strain. So it's not that they're not
Speaker 1: effective against the variance, it's just they're not quite as effective,
Speaker 1: so they still work. One thing that I've been thinking
Speaker 1: a lot about is expectations. And let's say that a
Speaker 1: family had family members who were in their sixties and
Speaker 1: they were scheduled to get vaccinated. UM, does that you
Speaker 1: know in the in the coming weeks, Does that mean
Speaker 1: that this those those people who are in their sixties
Speaker 1: who have been vaccinated, does that mean that they can
Speaker 1: all get together with other people? Now? I think there's
Speaker 1: a lot of confusion around like what it means for
Speaker 1: some people to be vaccinated in society and what it
Speaker 1: means for for other people not to be vaccinated, and
Speaker 1: to what that means for return for normalcy. Sure, it's
Speaker 1: a really good question and one that I get a
Speaker 1: lot too. So first thing, let me say everybody, when
Speaker 1: you after you get your second shot, you're not immune
Speaker 1: for another two weeks, So you can't go out and
Speaker 1: party right after you your second shot. UM. The other
Speaker 1: the other thing that we should say is it's still
Speaker 1: important to wear your masks and maintain distance even if
Speaker 1: you've been vaccinated, because the vaccine is not only to
Speaker 1: protect you personally, is to keep you from um spreading
Speaker 1: the virus, and it doesn't do The vaccine doesn't prevent
Speaker 1: spread of the virus as much as it gets you
Speaker 1: personal protection. So you still need to wear a mask.
Speaker 1: You still need to maintain distance to protect other people
Speaker 1: because you can still transmit the virus even though you've
Speaker 1: been vaccinated. So that's interesting. So we okay, And these
Speaker 1: vaccines are developing, like we've had a big conversation about
Speaker 1: this this week, about developing anti antibodies versus developing T cells.
Speaker 1: T cells obviously stay with you longer. I mean, these
Speaker 1: are also going to be significant, right in terms of
Speaker 1: what our trajectory is going forward. Yeah, so we know
Speaker 1: a whole lot more about the antibodies than we do
Speaker 1: about the detail response to to these vaccines or or
Speaker 1: to actual infection, so it's much harder thing to study.
Speaker 1: So um, we just don't know yet. So here we
Speaker 1: are in February, almost a year into this pandemic, and
Speaker 1: we're starting to see signs that governments, especially here in
Speaker 1: New York City, want to get back to normal, or
Speaker 1: at least return to some semblance of normalcy. I guess
Speaker 1: I have a hard time understanding what you still what
Speaker 1: you can and can't do after you've been vaccinated, because
Speaker 1: the governor wants to open up um sporting you know,
Speaker 1: sport sporting complex, sporting arenas and have people who have
Speaker 1: been vaccinated and go and wear masks like is that
Speaker 1: type of thing okay? And we don't have about thirty
Speaker 1: seconds left? Uh the short answers. I don't think that's
Speaker 1: a good idea. I think we should still be cautious.
Speaker 1: I think that some gradual reopening makes sense, but it
Speaker 1: should be done carefully. UM. I think a sudden reopening
Speaker 1: may cause and other search and we really might avoid that.
Speaker 1: Dr Turner, I want to talk schools because we learned
Speaker 1: earlier today that the us CDC will release a detailed
Speaker 1: guidance tomorrow on how to safely reopen more schools. This
Speaker 1: has been long away to the Biden administration has a
Speaker 1: goal to get schools open in the coming months. What's
Speaker 1: the right way to do this really important thing to
Speaker 1: do is to is to make sure that, um, we
Speaker 1: follow the evidence, and so that means that we need
Speaker 1: to make sure that kids are um masked, that the
Speaker 1: there's adequate ventilation, but there's adequate reduction of density and
Speaker 1: school that is allowed enough space between kids both in
Speaker 1: the class room and elsewhere in the school. UM. So
Speaker 1: there's a lot of evidence that schools can be opened safely.
Speaker 1: There have been schools that have been opened throughout the
Speaker 1: pandemic and have done so safely. But it requires a
Speaker 1: lot of mitigation efforts, and I assume that's what the
Speaker 1: CDC is gonna outline tomorrow. Um. This has been done
Speaker 1: in private schools successfully, whether it can be done in
Speaker 1: a large public school system, UM, you know, I think
Speaker 1: we'll have to wait and see. Yeah, it's tricky, and
Speaker 1: but I know that there's so much pressure, um to
Speaker 1: get kids back. Tell me, I'm curious, Dr Toner, what
Speaker 1: are you hearing? What are you seeing maybe from colleagues
Speaker 1: or from what you're seeing directly. When it comes to
Speaker 1: hospitals in the type of virus cases that we're seeing
Speaker 1: and their access to necessary supplies to treat patients, well,
Speaker 1: it's a whole lot better now than it was, UM
Speaker 1: months or two months ago. Uh, we were in a
Speaker 1: terrific crisis following the holidays in the early weeks of January. Uh,
Speaker 1: pretty much across the country, but especially in southern California
Speaker 1: where they were literally running out of oxygen um with
Speaker 1: that was also seen in other places like Minnesota, like Texas,
Speaker 1: has been seen previously in New York City in the spring. UM.
Speaker 1: Generally speaking, supplies both equipment and disposable supplies. Are the
Speaker 1: situation as a whole lot better than than it had
Speaker 1: been in the past. Um, But part of it is
Speaker 1: because case counselors are down so much from where they were.
Speaker 1: I mean, we're we're at half the level we were
Speaker 1: UM a month or six weeks ago. So UM, you know,
Speaker 1: a lot of the stress has been taken off and
Speaker 1: UM hopefully fingers crossed the download TREDI will continue. If, however,
Speaker 1: we see another big surge, we could be back into
Speaker 1: it a situation what we have shortages. So I want
Speaker 1: to contextualize this downward trend because it is great news
Speaker 1: that we are seeing it moved down, But we're still
Speaker 1: seeing the number of cases that per day in the
Speaker 1: United States that rivals, you know, anything that we saw
Speaker 1: over the over the Midsummer and in spring last year.
Speaker 1: So it's still it's still very very high. That's said doctor.
Speaker 1: Is it going down because of the vaccine? Is it
Speaker 1: going down because the post holiday bump? Is we're we're
Speaker 1: moving away from that? Is it a combination of the two.
Speaker 1: Is it too early for the vaccine? Why are we
Speaker 1: seeing this decline now? And how could we see it
Speaker 1: spike up again soon. Well, I think it's multi factoral. UM.
Speaker 1: It's probably doesn't have much to do with the vaccine.
Speaker 1: There hasn't been enough time for the enough people be
Speaker 1: vaccinated to make a big difference. UM. I think a
Speaker 1: lot of it has to do with individual behavior. I
Speaker 1: think after the huge bike everywhere across the country UM,
Speaker 1: in the in December early January, we saw that many
Speaker 1: more people were in masks maintaining distances. Many UM cities
Speaker 1: and towns UM went back into some some degree of
Speaker 1: lockdown and tightened up their their restrictions. Right. So I
Speaker 1: think we're seeing evidence of that UM. And I think
Speaker 1: the bottom line is trends should continue to go down
Speaker 1: as long as people UM, you know, maintain these mitigation efforts.
Speaker 1: If they don't, then I think we will see the
Speaker 1: curve turned around. Well fingers crossed, and I like when
Speaker 1: the curve goes down. Dr Eric Toner, thank you so much.
Speaker 1: As Alway, Senior Scholar at the JOHNS. Hopkins Center for
Speaker 1: Health Security at Bloomberg School of Public Health. Of Course,
Speaker 1: Michael R. Bloomberg is a founder of course at Bloomberg
Speaker 1: LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies and supports the Bloomberg School of
Speaker 1: Public Health. This is Bloomberg Business Way with Carol Masser
Speaker 1: and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic from Bloomberg Radio. So
Speaker 1: I want to get to a story that's a younger
Speaker 1: most right on the Bloomberg It's about the individual transforming
Speaker 1: the fortune created by billionaire and founder of Amazon, Jeff Bezos.
Speaker 1: And we're not talking about Jeff No, we're not even
Speaker 1: talking about a Bezos anymore. We're talking about Mackenzie Scott.
Speaker 1: That's right, his former wife. Let's get into it with
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News Wealth Team reporter Sophie Alexander. She's on the
Speaker 1: phone in San Francisco along with Bloomberg Business We get it,
Speaker 1: or Joe Webber on the Access line in Brooklyn. Man.
Speaker 1: She has been a game changer, Joel when it comes
Speaker 1: to philanthropy and giving. Yeah, and we're gonna talk about her.
Speaker 1: We also have to talk about Jeff Bezos, says, because
Speaker 1: you know the two of them together, Um, you know
Speaker 1: when they were a couple still uh, not so long ago.
Speaker 1: They had a massive fortune together. And actually what was
Speaker 1: pretty amazing about it was actually how little of it
Speaker 1: ended up in um philanthropic causes during during their marriage.
Speaker 1: But what we've seen since their divorce and really um
Speaker 1: uh most recently um, largely because of Mackenzie, has been
Speaker 1: um this real uh change. And you know the six
Speaker 1: billion figure that so uh and and been right about
Speaker 1: um that's attribute to her, we think is the largest single, uh,
Speaker 1: single amount that anyone's ever given to philanthropies in in
Speaker 1: a in a calendar year. Um. And so Sophie like,
Speaker 1: can you walk us through you know, the significance of
Speaker 1: what that means for the Amazon fortune going forward? Yeah? Absolutely,
Speaker 1: I mean the six billion dollars is just such an
Speaker 1: immense figure. And when we're talking about philanthropy historically, you know,
Speaker 1: one of the main criticisms of billionaire philanthropists of for
Speaker 1: one of their reasons rather of not giving away enough
Speaker 1: money faster, is that, you know, it takes time to
Speaker 1: be thoughtful and it takes time to give away this
Speaker 1: these huge amounts of money, you know, billions of dollars.
Speaker 1: But Mackenzie sort of disproving that and what this could
Speaker 1: mean for the future is you know, Mackenzie is only
Speaker 1: just getting started. She's finally giving pledge. She's pledged to
Speaker 1: give away the majority of her fortune UM, which at
Speaker 1: this point is nearing sixty billion dollars and so UM
Speaker 1: that that's just a huge amount of money that could
Speaker 1: be given away. And then when we're talking about Jeff
Speaker 1: who recently stepped down or none that he would be
Speaker 1: stepping down from Amazon as CEO, UM, that's sort of
Speaker 1: a sign that he's probably going to focus more on
Speaker 1: his giving and that we could be seeing more from
Speaker 1: him in the philsopic philosophical space coming forward. And to
Speaker 1: be fair, I mean, he did give away money before, right,
Speaker 1: but it's not as quickly as his former wife has. Definitely, UM,
Speaker 1: I think that the to be fair to Jeff UM,
Speaker 1: when we talk about Bill Gates, you know, one of
Speaker 1: the most impressive philanthropists in history, he didn't start giving
Speaker 1: away very much until he stepped down from Microsoft. UM.
Speaker 1: And so Jeff has been giving money. But you know,
Speaker 1: when you put it in the context of how much
Speaker 1: wealth he really has, it's it's a very small amount.
Speaker 1: We're talking about uh, single digit millions, UM, tens of
Speaker 1: millions sometimes and more recently sure hundreds of millions of dollars.
Speaker 1: But where he's really had the biggest figures are in
Speaker 1: his commitment you know, he's made the two billion dollar
Speaker 1: commitment for the Day One Fund and then the ten
Speaker 1: billion dollar commitments for the Earth's Times, So those are
Speaker 1: huge numbers, but we're not actually seeing that money deployed yet.
Speaker 1: So you made the point earlier on on Quick Take Today,
Speaker 1: Sophie that Bill Gates didn't start giving significantly until he
Speaker 1: left Microsoft as CEO, which which I thought was a
Speaker 1: really important point and not something that I had considered. Um,
Speaker 1: I wonder if that's what we're going to start seeing
Speaker 1: from Jeff Bezos now that he has stepped down, or
Speaker 1: he said he would step down and that will happen
Speaker 1: later this year and hand off the reins to to
Speaker 1: somebody else at Amazon. Are we going to start seeing
Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos give away more money? That is sort of
Speaker 1: the big question, you know, in his letter announcing that
Speaker 1: he would be stepping down, he mentioned the Day One
Speaker 1: Fund and he mentioned the Earth Fund as two of
Speaker 1: the things that he plans to focus on more. So,
Speaker 1: you know, it's been a few years now since he
Speaker 1: made those announcements that he start would start the Day
Speaker 1: one Fund, and he announced the Earth Fund last year,
Speaker 1: but really has only given about a billion dollars of
Speaker 1: the twelve billion dollars that he's committed to giving. And
Speaker 1: he's set no timeline for himself, so you know, he's
Speaker 1: not really going to be held to anything um, but
Speaker 1: we could see more from him coming soon. Well, I
Speaker 1: think you know, that's it's an interesting point here because
Speaker 1: you know, even just yesterday they're the Chronicle of Philanthropy
Speaker 1: came out with some big numbers from from uh Bezos
Speaker 1: and Scott and others, and and one of the things
Speaker 1: that is interesting there is that you know, Bezos his
Speaker 1: name was actually at the top of that list because
Speaker 1: of what he's pledged, but not actually what he's given.
Speaker 1: And that I think is that one of the things
Speaker 1: that is really important to keep in mind what what
Speaker 1: Sophie and Ben did a great job of underscoring in
Speaker 1: this is like one thing to pledge and it's another
Speaker 1: thing to actually do. And what she you know, really
Speaker 1: showed here is is uh that you can do something
Speaker 1: big and dramatic and do it actually fast. And that
Speaker 1: that I think is the thing that everyone in the
Speaker 1: philanthropy world has looked at her and said, wow, this
Speaker 1: is something. So Sophie, my my my last question for
Speaker 1: you is how competitive does it get when your ex
Speaker 1: life give it aways six billion? Like you, that's something
Speaker 1: you have to kind of like the sort of kindle
Speaker 1: a fire in your belly to be like, did you
Speaker 1: really do that? You know, it just it happens. It's
Speaker 1: like you can hear an echo in here. That's a
Speaker 1: real laugh from Joel. I like, all right, you guys,
Speaker 1: just be quiet. Go ahead, Sophie answer. I was just
Speaker 1: going to say. I mean, it's impossible to say what
Speaker 1: the relationship is now and how her giving impact his giving.
Speaker 1: You know, she's been the giving pledge, she hasn't and
Speaker 1: he's been sort of knocked for that. Um But and
Speaker 1: it's also impossible to say what their philosophic giving, you know,
Speaker 1: who did what while they were together? Was I talked
Speaker 1: to you an expert about such? So it's really hard
Speaker 1: to say. You know, it's very from couple to couple.
Speaker 1: Um So, we just don't really know enough about their
Speaker 1: individual personalities to be able to say much more on that.
Speaker 1: But you've got to think that, you know, when people
Speaker 1: are talking about the Amazon fortune and seeing these things that,
Speaker 1: you know, he might feel a certain responsibility to sort
Speaker 1: of stuck it up. It's gonna be a prime topic
Speaker 1: that comes up. We're a great team. I'm just gonna
Speaker 1: say it, all right, Gotta run, guys. Sophia Alexander, thank
Speaker 1: you so much. Wealth Team reporter at Bloomberg News on
Speaker 1: the phone from San Francisco. Check her out on Twitter.
Speaker 1: Check out that story on Bloomberg dot com. Jil Weber,
Speaker 1: thank you, editor at Bloomberg Business Week, Promote access from Brooklyn.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg This Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic from Bloomberg Radio. So um, Tim.
Speaker 1: We talked about the impeachment proceedings before the break. More
Speaker 1: news out of DC, because let's not forget we've got
Speaker 1: present Buyden Democrats. They're working to get you know, his
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen relief plan through Congress. And as Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week National correspondent Josh Green reports, it's really an interesting
Speaker 1: time for Democrats and the party as two Republican factions
Speaker 1: are wrestling for control of the GOP. That split is
Speaker 1: making an interesting era. Let's get into this with Josh
Speaker 1: Green wrote the story. He's on the phone in Washington
Speaker 1: to see. Josh also the author of Devil's Bargain, Steve Bannon,
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, and the Nationalist uprising. Josh, So, tell us
Speaker 1: about your story and what you were looking into. Well,
Speaker 1: I was really looking at the Republican Party's inability or
Speaker 1: unwillingness to move beyond Trump and what it's costing him.
Speaker 1: In the Biden era, UM, there was a lot I
Speaker 1: think after the insurrection, there was a lot of um
Speaker 1: talk to the effect that Republicans were a gap willing
Speaker 1: to break. And if you've watched the trial over the
Speaker 1: last couple of days in the Center, it's been clear
Speaker 1: that that by and large Republicans are sticking with Trump.
Speaker 1: What I did in my column, though, was look at
Speaker 1: the policy effects that that's going to have, And I
Speaker 1: think the most interesting effect that I've come across is
Speaker 1: the size of the COVID relief bill, which Biden introduced
Speaker 1: at one point nine trillion dollars UM. Golden Sacks has
Speaker 1: been tracking its estimates for what the final size of
Speaker 1: the bill are going to be. A month ago, their
Speaker 1: estimate was seven billion dollars, because the expectation was that
Speaker 1: Republicans would negotiate and whittle that down. On Monday, they
Speaker 1: came out with a new note saying now we think
Speaker 1: it's gonna be one point five trillion dollars, twice the
Speaker 1: size earlier, basically because Republicans, instead of trying to negotiate
Speaker 1: and whittle down the price tag, have been busy defending
Speaker 1: Trump and haven't really been willing to engage in try
Speaker 1: and exert their influence on policy. And I think it's
Speaker 1: a big trend that a lot of people have been
Speaker 1: missing early in the Biden era. So, Josh, you you
Speaker 1: mentioned the presidencies of Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, and
Speaker 1: you write that navigating such a middle course consumed UH
Speaker 1: them and often ended in frustration and defeat. How does
Speaker 1: Biden free himself from navigating this middle course? What is
Speaker 1: the opportunity that he has in a time when it
Speaker 1: does seem like America is even more divided than it
Speaker 1: was then. We know the last two Democratic presidents, Bill
Speaker 1: Clinton Barack Obama have both both made concerted efforts to
Speaker 1: kind of reach out and appeal to a group of
Speaker 1: center right Republicans in the Senate because there was great
Speaker 1: premium put I think on legislation being bipartisan. I think
Speaker 1: one effect of the Republican parties uh decision to to
Speaker 1: sort of uh defend Trump and kind of remain that
Speaker 1: Maga party is that there really isn't that kind of
Speaker 1: block of centrist Republicans for Biden to try and negotiate with.
Speaker 1: And as a result, Biden, the Democrats haven't really therefore
Speaker 1: had any need to trim their sales into shrink the
Speaker 1: size of these packages, so, you know, absent Republican negotiating partners,
Speaker 1: what Biden's done instead is turned to the left and say, Okay,
Speaker 1: if this is my legislative path to getting fifty votes,
Speaker 1: then I'll do what the folks on my left want,
Speaker 1: not on the folks on my right. And I think
Speaker 1: that's why we've seen the doubling of the size of
Speaker 1: this COVID package in the Golden SACS estimate, because it's
Speaker 1: going to reflect what the left wants, not what the
Speaker 1: center right might have wanted. Well that's kind of interesting.
Speaker 1: So when we think about policy to come, should we
Speaker 1: look way left? I don't, you know, in general terms,
Speaker 1: I think yes, that it has become pretty clear early
Speaker 1: on that Biden's legislative path is going to be the
Speaker 1: unified Democrats. I think it's easier to do on something
Speaker 1: like COVID relief, which is broadly popular, more so than
Speaker 1: maybe a Green New Deal or expanding the Supreme Court um.
Speaker 1: But but certainly, I think what this is showing us
Speaker 1: is that we need to reframe our expectations for what
Speaker 1: sorts of policies are gonna be possible under Biden, uh
Speaker 1: and what he might be able to do with people
Speaker 1: on his left if Republicans decide that they don't want
Speaker 1: to try and exert influence over his policies. So, Josh,
Speaker 1: what where is the Republican Party right now? Because it
Speaker 1: is I'm getting a couple of different signals here. Right
Speaker 1: In the one sense, we are seeing widespread support for
Speaker 1: for President Trump play out in the Senate trial right now,
Speaker 1: there's no indication that that he would be convicted because
Speaker 1: there we will not get, you know, the Democrats will
Speaker 1: not get Republican support for conviction. But at the same time,
Speaker 1: you write in your story that a majority of US
Speaker 1: voters would like to see Trump convicted and barred from
Speaker 1: running for office again. So there's disconnect between what the
Speaker 1: American people want and what Republicans in Congress are are doing,
Speaker 1: which is nothing new. I should say, yeah, exactly, No,
Speaker 1: I think I think that's exactly right. And there's a
Speaker 1: huff Post Yugov pull that came out this week that
Speaker 1: showed that about three and four Republican voters wanted the
Speaker 1: party to continue to follow Trump, and I think that's
Speaker 1: what that's the major reason why you see a lot
Speaker 1: of Republicans like Lindsey Graham, who were vocally critical of
Speaker 1: Trump after the insurrection have completely turned around and now
Speaker 1: are defending him and attacking Democrats. But if you pull
Speaker 1: back and look at the broader universe of US voters,
Speaker 1: they are still very unhappy with Trump, more so after
Speaker 1: the insurrection, and a slim majority of voters and most
Speaker 1: polls that I've seen this week, I want Trump convicted
Speaker 1: and barred from running for office again. So I think
Speaker 1: what what what we can really take away is that
Speaker 1: the Republican Party so far has not been willing to
Speaker 1: move beyond trump um. And what I try and do
Speaker 1: in this piece is illustrate the policy cost of them
Speaker 1: not wanting to move forward. What what it's done is
Speaker 1: give Democrats more room to move their bills to the left.
Speaker 1: All right, good, thank you so much, Josh, appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Josh Green, National correspondent Bloomberg Business Week, joining us from Washington,
Speaker 1: d C. You can, of course read Josh's story on
Speaker 1: the Bloomberger at Bloomberg dot com, so check it out,
Speaker 1: and also check out his book Devil's Bargain, Steve band
Speaker 1: and Donald Trump and the Nationalist Uprising. I'm broom macro journal. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but you let me drive drug home, honey, please, I'll
Speaker 1: do the right gravel. Lets me. I want to drive,
Speaker 1: Just drive, baby, it's the question trying. This is the
Speaker 1: drive to the Globe Commune. Thanks, we'll drying us down
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. All right, folks, Yeah, eleven minutes left
Speaker 1: in today's trading such as suit is time for the
Speaker 1: drive to the close. Philip Palumbo is with us, back
Speaker 1: with us, CEO, ce IO and founder of Palumbo Wealth Management.
Speaker 1: They're a boutique wealth management firm roughly three hundred million
Speaker 1: dollars in assets under management, and he joins us once
Speaker 1: again on the phone in Great Neck Long Island. I fail.
Speaker 1: How are you good, Carol? How are you? Thanks for
Speaker 1: having me back? Yeah, you're welcome. You're welcome. Uh to it? Okay, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, trying to make sense out of a market
Speaker 1: that continues to hear hit records, Bitcoin hits records. There's
Speaker 1: a lot of asset classes. Uh. And yet we've got
Speaker 1: millions out of work, We've got an economy that's still struggling. Uh.
Speaker 1: There's still a lot of questions out there. We've got
Speaker 1: a lot of people who still are you know, we're
Speaker 1: dealing with COVID still. Um, how do you see it? Yes,
Speaker 1: the last time I was on the show November eleventh,
Speaker 1: I had said I was bullish on on the economy
Speaker 1: recovery really because of the vaccines and breakthroughs of that, etcetera.
Speaker 1: So I kind of still feel the same way. My
Speaker 1: only concern is that I do feel, like you said,
Speaker 1: things are stretched at this point. So I do see
Speaker 1: volatility over the next month or two, which I do
Speaker 1: think would be healthy to get a little bit of
Speaker 1: a pullback here. But ultimately it's tough for the market
Speaker 1: to pull back a lot, just because of the backstop
Speaker 1: with the monetary and the fiscal policy and all the
Speaker 1: money that's gonna be coming to people, and then in
Speaker 1: the back end of this year with the reopening of economies,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be it's tough to go against and bed
Speaker 1: against the market continue to go that much lower from
Speaker 1: where we are right now, let's talk some of the
Speaker 1: companies that you're you're following closely, starting with Disney, a
Speaker 1: company reporting earnings after the bell today. Disney Plus obviously
Speaker 1: has seen huge growth. I mean, it is what has
Speaker 1: powered Disney to record highs. But my question is is
Speaker 1: how long our investor is going to have the patients
Speaker 1: for Disney Plus making up for optimism around Disney pluss
Speaker 1: making up for losses at theme parks and movies movie theaters. Uh,
Speaker 1: and of course the cruises as well. Well. You well,
Speaker 1: on the back half of this year with the vaccine breakthroughs,
Speaker 1: I mean, it's you're going to see an improvement in
Speaker 1: the theme parks. You're gonna see parts that are closed reopened,
Speaker 1: you can see parks that are open, capacities increase, right,
Speaker 1: So you're gonna see an improvement in the revenues overall
Speaker 1: for the theme parks going into third fourth quarter of
Speaker 1: this year and first quarter of next year, in all
Speaker 1: of twenty two, so there's definitely going to be improvement
Speaker 1: versus the opposite. Their number one number two, the Disney
Speaker 1: Plus is tremendous and the opportunity is tremendous when when
Speaker 1: we look at it and we think of out it. Right,
Speaker 1: over over thirteen month period, right, they brought on ninety
Speaker 1: million subscribers, and if you think about the forecast four
Speaker 1: we're talking tooty million forecast to subscribers. If you extrapolate
Speaker 1: the revenue generator from that, in the bottom line to Disney,
Speaker 1: it's it's not about what they're gonna what they're gonna
Speaker 1: print this quarter or next quarter or the quarter after.
Speaker 1: It's really about where they're going to be three to
Speaker 1: five years. They're going to be a different company, not
Speaker 1: just a company that's all about the parks. Yeah, talk
Speaker 1: about a big pivotal right, Yeah, I mean new CEO,
Speaker 1: new thinking. I mean, I do feel like there's and
Speaker 1: maybe that's the pandemic that, you know, things that maybe
Speaker 1: a company has been thinking about. All of a sudden,
Speaker 1: they're like, we don't got time to do focus groups
Speaker 1: and figure out the best way to slowly make this move.
Speaker 1: We've just got to do it. M Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: there was a little bit of luck in there as well, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, it was before it was before Covid, but
Speaker 1: COVID definitely accelerated there. I think they're they're excellence in
Speaker 1: that particular area. But it's been remarkable. It really has
Speaker 1: everybody agrees to that. I do think, however, I mean
Speaker 1: it's a little stretched here from evaluation standpoints, I wouldn't
Speaker 1: be supposed a little. It's a hundred and sixty three
Speaker 1: of a P A P E F when sixty three
Speaker 1: of forward looking po how stretched is it? Yeah? So
Speaker 1: it's stretched. So if you look at volatility and market
Speaker 1: in in the options market, I wouldn't be surprised that
Speaker 1: after the print, after the bell today that we see
Speaker 1: some sort of pullback and they started the straight flat
Speaker 1: for for a month or two, but then ultimately I
Speaker 1: do think that the next leg is going to be higher. Yeah, well, listen,
Speaker 1: it's it's a forward looking story at this I mean,
Speaker 1: if you think about how much it was beaten up,
Speaker 1: but it's been on quite a bounce back since those
Speaker 1: loads in October. Are you speaking of a forward looking story?
Speaker 1: I know that you recently added jets the airline e
Speaker 1: t F to your portfolio. How are you thinking about
Speaker 1: airlines weathering this storm? Yeah? So, so we're in our view,
Speaker 1: we're in a growth accelerating story with the economy. We
Speaker 1: troll fell it last year. We're now recovering. And anytime
Speaker 1: you go through a recovery, small caps lead and cyclicals lead.
Speaker 1: And part of the cyclical story is Disney and also
Speaker 1: uh the airlines, which, like I said, we just took
Speaker 1: a position a couple of weeks ago. So again it's
Speaker 1: the same story that we've all been hearing on the
Speaker 1: back after this year going at two airlines, what we believe,
Speaker 1: you know, we'll make a comeback. It's part of the
Speaker 1: cyclical story, and that's why we're in that. Yeah. I mean,
Speaker 1: so if I look at the you know, the jet
Speaker 1: C t F for like right now, I mean it's
Speaker 1: at and change. How much higher does it go in
Speaker 1: your view? I think I think in the cards six
Speaker 1: for sure, you know, I think the I think it's
Speaker 1: going to slowly move that way. I don't think you
Speaker 1: get a quick increase to the upside. I would say,
Speaker 1: you know, the third quarter, fourth quarter of this year,
Speaker 1: I think you can see its far movements a price
Speaker 1: target and which we're looking for. So this is this
Speaker 1: for us is more of It's not a long term
Speaker 1: investment for us. It's probably more of a trade off
Speaker 1: of the cyclical recovery. Talked to us about docusian and
Speaker 1: I've actually had to use it during the pandemic, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, and it was on a tear last year,
Speaker 1: was up and it's continuing to climb higher here up
Speaker 1: about fifteen six percent here, Um, what you're thinking about it?
Speaker 1: It's now two fifty six seven. Uh, where does it go? Yeah? Again,
Speaker 1: care everything is expensive, as you just said before, so
Speaker 1: I'm not denying that. But one thing I will say
Speaker 1: that documsign is a fine company. The economic moat is
Speaker 1: very wide. Uh, there are not many that do it
Speaker 1: as well as documsign has done. I mean, Covid accelerated
Speaker 1: all a lot of their growth like many other companies.
Speaker 1: But for sure this is here to stay. For a
Speaker 1: very long time. Customers got used to and consumers got
Speaker 1: used to using documsign for all different industries. So so
Speaker 1: that's why we believe longer term DocuSign is is here
Speaker 1: to stay. The revenue growth numbers zero every year, a
Speaker 1: bit pretty dramatic for the last few years, and it
Speaker 1: makes sense. You're not going to go back to signing
Speaker 1: paper documents. What once you've used the problem? So we
Speaker 1: need to use right exactly. It really is simple for
Speaker 1: the consumer to use. So I think that's a great
Speaker 1: story longer term, still, very briefly, UM, anything that you've
Speaker 1: moved away from in recent months you've gotten out of. Um.
Speaker 1: You know. The only thing we've don't we've been doing
Speaker 1: is you know, the investments that are trading twenty to
Speaker 1: fifty times sales, which that is in our opinion, way
Speaker 1: over valued. So we're reducing some of our growth moving
Speaker 1: towards the value. Historically, the strategy has always been to
Speaker 1: blend growth and value evenly. So growth has outperformed value
Speaker 1: now for for some time obviously, So now we're looking
Speaker 1: to reduce some of the risk from growth moving into
Speaker 1: value as we think as interest rates we believe move
Speaker 1: higher over the next two or three or four years,
Speaker 1: we think value as a chance of doing better than growth,
Speaker 1: So we want to keep I have heard that for
Speaker 1: a long time. Help me too. It's been a lot
Speaker 1: of headcaches, right, but I think I think this. I'm
Speaker 1: hoping this time around it's it's going to be for
Speaker 1: real because there's some value in that area. Yeah, it
Speaker 1: does feel like and I'm not a market predictor, but
Speaker 1: it does feel like you know that there's some fluff
Speaker 1: in the market, and that at some point we'll see
Speaker 1: somewhat of a correction or maybe a little bit of
Speaker 1: a pullback, as we've often done, and then the market
Speaker 1: just heads higher. Um. Phil, thank you so much. Have
Speaker 1: a great weekend. Phil Palumbo, founder, CEO, and chief investment
Speaker 1: officer at Palumbo Wealth Management roughly three million in assets
Speaker 1: under management, on the phone from Great Neck, New York.
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