1 00:00:02,279 --> 00:00:05,680 Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg 2 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:08,800 Speaker 1: dot com, the radio plus mobile lapp and on your radio. 3 00:00:09,080 --> 00:00:13,080 Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow. 4 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:15,680 Speaker 1: This updates brought to you by Sector Spider et f s. 5 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Why buy a single stock when you can invest in 6 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 1: the entire sector because it's sector spd r s dot 7 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:25,560 Speaker 1: Com are called six sector et f Darting Restaurants up 8 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 1: one percent in early trading after raising his outlook for 9 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 1: the year. Twitter up two point one percent after a 10 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 1: person familiar with the matters that had want a deal 11 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: to show Thursday nights National Football League games online. Futures 12 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 1: are lower SNP eveny futures down fifteen points down e 13 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 1: many futures down a hundred eleven nasacive many futures down 14 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:46,480 Speaker 1: thirty one. The decks in Germany's down two point three 15 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 1: percent ten. Your treasury up eight thirty seconds. The yield 16 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:51,720 Speaker 1: one point seven three percent yield on the two year 17 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 1: point seven two percent. Non execute oil is little change, 18 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 1: down two cents to thirty five sixty, and a barrel 19 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 1: comics gold is up one point one percent, or fourteen 20 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 1: dollars twenty says the twelve thirty three fifty an ounce, 21 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:06,119 Speaker 1: the euro a dollar thirteen sixty one. They had one 22 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:09,480 Speaker 1: ten point five three. And that's a Bloomberg business flash, 23 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 1: Tom and Mike, Thank you very much. Karen. Well, it 24 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 1: is the Wisconsin primary today and it has the potential for, 25 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:19,319 Speaker 1: uh maybe changing the narrative a little bit of the 26 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 1: two thousand and sixteen presidential campaign. So the man we 27 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 1: need to turn to, of course, is Chuck Todd, the 28 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 1: host of NBC's Meek Press, which you can hear every 29 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 1: Sunday here on Bloomberg Radio eleven and three. Chuck, before 30 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:34,679 Speaker 1: we get to Wisconsin, though, I have to ask you, 31 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:38,760 Speaker 1: as one of the world's pre eminent experts on these things, Um, 32 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 1: Villanova okay with you? You know? Is that with me? Yeah? 33 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,840 Speaker 1: Fine with me. You know, my my University of Miami 34 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:49,600 Speaker 1: Arcane they lost to Villanova. So my feeling is, hey, 35 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 1: they there's only one team that could have beaten him 36 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 1: in the tournament apparently the chance So so at least 37 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 1: what I told my son, I can feel better about 38 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:00,400 Speaker 1: mine and listing in the sleet sixte what game. I mean, 39 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: you just you just have to marvel at it. I mean, 40 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 1: you know, they Villanova is an amazing run. You have 41 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 1: to give him credit. They were unstoppable. They couldn't miss 42 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:13,919 Speaker 1: all tournament. Mom. They just couldn't miss when it mattered. 43 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:16,079 Speaker 1: It's good for them. It's good to get hot at 44 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:18,839 Speaker 1: the right time. Which is kind of a lead in there. 45 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 1: Ask you about the Wisconsin primary, Uh, ted Cruise seems 46 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 1: to be uh in a pretty good position today. The 47 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 1: folks at have him with a n chance of winning 48 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 1: the primary. Yeah, look, I it is. Everything looks good 49 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:41,520 Speaker 1: for him, uh if his it looks like the the 50 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 1: two things have come together, you know, cruizes uh sort 51 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:49,240 Speaker 1: of ability to concentrate and focus in micro target and 52 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 1: the fact that the stop Trump movement UH had sort 53 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 1: of had more legs in Wisconsin than we've seen in 54 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 1: other states. UM. Combine that together. That's really benefited Cruise. 55 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:03,160 Speaker 1: I think the interesting tonight is is if Trump totally 56 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 1: gets shut out of delegates, that's possible. It's also possible 57 00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:08,239 Speaker 1: that he does with what we what he's done to 58 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:11,240 Speaker 1: us multiple weeks where you think he's on the ropes, 59 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: you think things are going to go south for him, 60 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:15,359 Speaker 1: and he pulls a rabbit out of his hat uh 61 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: and and does better on a primary night than anybody effected. 62 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 1: So you know, we should break ourselves for that, and 63 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:25,239 Speaker 1: it shouldn't shock that that that happened. But as long 64 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 1: as the poles are corrected, this could be a chance. 65 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 1: This could be a psychological reset of the Republican Chuck, 66 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:32,960 Speaker 1: I know you got a tattoo in your right arm. 67 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 1: With all the delegate account for the Republicans, I need 68 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 1: to be renoyed by the Wall Street Journal today Maryland. 69 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: I was surprised at the delegate size versus Wisconsin, and 70 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 1: of course New York with nine delegates, and as well, 71 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 1: do you just assume Mr Trump rebounds in whatever way 72 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 1: in Maryland or New York or all of a sudden, 73 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 1: is a cruise cruise cruise, Well we'll see you. Look, well, 74 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 1: here's things that haven't happened before. Right. We haven't seen 75 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:02,320 Speaker 1: how trumps a loss where he has to stew in 76 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 1: it for two weeks, all right. When he lost Iowa 77 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: six days later, he was able to reset things back 78 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 1: in Hampshire. He doesn't have that luxury this time, right, 79 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 1: so it could last longer. The second issue is the 80 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:17,159 Speaker 1: expectations are all on him in New York, his home state, 81 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 1: not only is an expected that he wins, but he 82 00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:24,120 Speaker 1: should win big. So suddenly expectations not only a lot, 83 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 1: but he's on the ropes and he's got to somehow 84 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:29,480 Speaker 1: rebound in New York. Now, the good news for him 85 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:31,360 Speaker 1: is that it's New York. The bad news form is 86 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 1: expectations suddenly a look. And the delegate numbers do matter tonight. Um, 87 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 1: you know, I think it matters less than most nights. 88 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 1: But if if Trump gets shut out, then it really 89 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:45,599 Speaker 1: does mean an open convention is you know, goes to 90 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 1: like likelihood rather than right now where it's likely. Yeah, 91 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:52,840 Speaker 1: because you can't. I mean, Crews would have to win 92 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 1: pretty much all the delegates from here on out to 93 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: be able to claim the first bound victory. So then 94 00:04:57,160 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 1: what happens You got Trump and Crews argue that no 95 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:05,040 Speaker 1: other candidates should be permitted. I mean, under the Republican 96 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:08,240 Speaker 1: Party rules, they wouldn't be allowed at least on the 97 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:11,719 Speaker 1: first ballot. The rules obviously can be changed. The rules 98 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 1: haven't been written for how this election is going to 99 00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:16,279 Speaker 1: be conducted at the convention. It's the most important the 100 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 1: fact that people need to understand. You know, all of 101 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:21,919 Speaker 1: these talks about poll a candidate must have a majority 102 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 1: of delegates in h states to get mauntinated. No, those 103 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: are the rules. There's going to be a change of 104 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 1: rules in now. My guess is they will be changed 105 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: in a way that if both the Cruise and Trump 106 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 1: delegates agree that they don't want case I nominated, they're 107 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 1: gonna make us. They'll probably figure out how to make 108 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 1: a rule to do that. But you know, I do think, 109 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 1: I look, I get what Cruises doing. Cruises strategy is 110 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:47,200 Speaker 1: not to win on the first ballot. Cruis strategy is 111 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 1: to try to win it by the third or fourth ballot. 112 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 1: But I do think that if he doesn't win it 113 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 1: by the third or fourth, then you'll see Dan, You'll 114 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,360 Speaker 1: start seeing the clamoring for somebody else. What's good that 115 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 1: keeps you going and keeps you a wake an MSNBC 116 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 1: and as you drag yourself the Sunday morning and meet 117 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,799 Speaker 1: the press is someone like Jennifer Ruben at the Washington Post. 118 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:08,839 Speaker 1: Do you see what she wrote the other day about 119 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 1: Paul Ryan. I mean, Jennifer Ruben is she you should 120 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 1: put her in the time out share of journalism And 121 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:21,039 Speaker 1: it's inflammatory what she says about Paul Ryan. To the rescue. Look, 122 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:24,599 Speaker 1: I do believe. I mean I've been I went on 123 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 1: to record that's lightly last week. I mean, I think 124 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:30,279 Speaker 1: the three most likely scenarios in this order. Our Cruise 125 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 1: gets the nomination on the third, third, or fourth ballot. 126 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:36,360 Speaker 1: Ryan gets the nomination on the fifth, six or seven. 127 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:40,599 Speaker 1: Uh and uh. And Trump's only chance is the first ballot. 128 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 1: And I think it's the least likely of the three scenarios. 129 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:45,479 Speaker 1: I mean, I actually think it's more likely that Paul 130 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 1: Ryan is the Republican nominated Donald Trump at this point 131 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 1: in time, where unless Trump goes on a massive role 132 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 1: between starting tonight in Wisconsin and going forward. But if 133 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 1: you lose the tide and double digits, I think we're 134 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 1: I think it's if you're going to see the spine 135 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,280 Speaker 1: stiffen in the anti Trump movement and you will see 136 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 1: more people join a publicly. Do you think than the 137 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 1: Trump supporters go home as I don't know, you know 138 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 1: that's going to be how does he react and what 139 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 1: do the Trump supporters do? I think that is, I 140 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 1: don't think it's as easy to predict if as people 141 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 1: you know, I don't, it's possible some stay home and 142 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 1: get frustrated and think up be there's nothing we can 143 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 1: do to change things, or they redouble and you know, 144 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 1: fight harder for him. We'll see the Democrats are voting 145 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 1: to According to Bernie, Sanders has a seventy three chance 146 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 1: of winning the Wisconsin primary, and that becomes notable. Uh 147 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 1: not because he gets so many delegates he's able to 148 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 1: overtake Hillary Clinton. But he certainly has a momentum. I 149 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 1: think it's what he would have won eight out of 150 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:52,440 Speaker 1: nine of the last contests. Yeah, I think it's to me, 151 00:07:52,520 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 1: margin matters here more than anything else. I think he 152 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 1: needs a substantial victory supports the meeting both on the 153 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 1: delegate front and if he wants to use it as 154 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 1: a springboard to pull the upset of New York, but 155 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 1: enders himself rightfully put it. I mean, you know, the 156 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 1: best chance they have of knocking her off and pull 157 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 1: him this upset is if he wins big tonight, and 158 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 1: it's in it, say spurn board to him pulling me 159 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 1: upset of New York. But if he doesn't beat her 160 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 1: New York, Uh, you know he's got a beat her 161 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 1: somewhere on hurt her right. He has yet to win something, 162 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 1: he has yet to win a primary or caucus where 163 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 1: you're like, oh, wow, that's not one I thought she 164 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 1: he could win. I knew she. She is one of 165 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 1: few that I thought he could win. Massachusetts is the 166 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:34,280 Speaker 1: biggest one, for instance, but she he is yet to 167 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 1: win a state that you thought while she could win well, 168 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:39,800 Speaker 1: that would be New York. So he is for him 169 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 1: tonight to do well, but he needs it in order 170 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 1: to have some sort of moment going into New York. 171 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:50,680 Speaker 1: What is the most likely scenario for Democrats? Um? Do 172 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 1: do they go all the way Hillary wins and they unite? 173 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:59,640 Speaker 1: Or is are the Sanders folks going to be upset 174 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:02,040 Speaker 1: by the whole process. Oh, there'll be a chunk of 175 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:04,079 Speaker 1: I'm just like there were a chunk of Clinton supporters 176 00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 1: that we're not ready to rally around Obama. Um in 177 00:09:07,559 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 1: June of l A b BI August they were. I 178 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 1: think it's you'll have some Standards people not ready to 179 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 1: rally around. But by late July he'll be there. Uh. 180 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: And you know, I think that Standards has to figure 181 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 1: out what it asks are and all this stuff. But 182 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 1: I think within fairness to the Standards campaign, I think 183 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: it's let's see how they do you know, let's give 184 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 1: them to the nineteenth. Let's see what we're thinking in 185 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 1: after New York. Shurek, we could talk for another two hours, 186 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: but your Wisconsin and focus, so we'll leave it at that. 187 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,560 Speaker 1: Chuck Tun thank you so much. He's moderator of Meet 188 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 1: the Press on NBC eleven and a m and three 189 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:44,960 Speaker 1: pm Sunday afternoon. Mike, this is it's sort of almost 190 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 1: off the radar because it's just one and it's Wisconsin, 191 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 1: and you know, it's it's been there, and I know 192 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 1: people are all fired up about it, but it just 193 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 1: doesn't have that super Tuesday feel and yet tonight could 194 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:59,319 Speaker 1: be very important. Well, this is Uh, this is one 195 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 1: that the pros watching. I know you like to talk 196 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 1: about the pros because indeed, if if Trump does not 197 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:10,599 Speaker 1: win more than a few delegates, and this is the 198 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:14,680 Speaker 1: delegates are apportioned by Congression congressional district so it's possible 199 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:16,320 Speaker 1: he could be shut out if he doesn't win any 200 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 1: congressional districts. Uh, then it does change the narrative of 201 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 1: the Republican campaign, and what a narrative it has been. 202 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 1: So that's a major major change. Unannouncement this morning in 203 00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:32,439 Speaker 1: three hours eleven am Ish, because with the Secretary of State, 204 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:35,840 Speaker 1: it's always ish. Somewhere in the vicinity of eleven am 205 00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:40,200 Speaker 1: David Weston will be interviewing the Secretary of State. You 206 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 1: will hear that. I'm Bloomberg Television and on Bloomberg Radio. 207 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:48,199 Speaker 1: Most interesting to speak to John Kerry and David Weston 208 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 1: will do that. Look for that in the eleven o'clock 209 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 1: hour this morning. We do data checks equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, 210 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 1: and we need to do that today, not the fervor 211 00:10:57,440 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 1: of an hour or two ago. But Yeah and straw 212 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 1: Younger one ten sixty four the yield one point seven 213 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: three West Texas thirty five sixty six of barrel. Another 214 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 1: hour of Bloomberg surveys.